I pray that there are enough sane people in leadership positions in the West to stop this madness.

Posted by: mtw | Sep 13 2024 7:32 utc | 1

mtw no. 1

Thoughts and prayers are useless. These "people in leadership" in the west are not capable of sanity. They think only of their puffed up egos and salaries/backhanders.

Posted by: KingCobra | Sep 13 2024 7:40 utc | 2

I've been saying this since the very beginning. From the very start, NATO has been walking a fine line. Whatever they gave Ukraine, whatever they did for Ukraine, whatever their involvement, they had to clear it with Putin first BECAUSE...

All Putin has to do is give Lebanon a nuclear weapon. That is all he would have to do.

Iran? Syria? Afghanistan? Iraq won't have to worry about US occupiers anymore if they become a Nuclear power overnight. Putin can play the exact same game and I'm sure NATO is quite aware of this.

Posted by: MaryPeck | Sep 13 2024 7:54 utc | 3

I believe the challenge is finding a proper response. It needs to be something that hurts but can also be pooh poohed over so that whoever is attacked can avoid escalation. Very public attacks on financial centers, which I think would get the aggressor's attention would be portrayed as cowardly and demand a harsh response which would of course lead to an even harsher response from Russia.

I have read about devices that can be exploded underwater and cause a huge wave to strike cities on the coast. There would be so many civilian deaths that this would be difficult to order for most people....unless it was a Samson option.

Posted by: dan of steele | Sep 13 2024 8:01 utc | 4

Had a brief conversation with PeterAU1 on this "essence" earlier on Ukraine open thread ....

Maybe it is time to 'formalise' this "essence" which, in fact, has been the case from the beginning of this Ukrainian gambit in 2008.

Just how far up the escalatory ladder is the US willing to test the Russian Federation's resolve when one considers that the Russians are not short on testicular fortitude?

Asymmetric I suppose - can think of a few adversaries of the Empire who would love to see a few Kinzals in the post ....

Posted by: Don Firineach | Sep 13 2024 8:16 utc | 5

"Vladimir Putin is not known for making empty threats."? Yes he is. The list is huge.

There's one example in the above quotes. Putin said and laws were passed so anyone using the term "war in Ukraine" would be arrested and possibly do prison time. They must use the phrase SMO. Right? But people have been saying "the war in Ukraine" for ages now and here above so does Putin himself. So much for not changing his mind. And a particular commenter here the other day made this point on the SMO critically important and I was terribly wrong to call it a WAR.

Where are all the "arms" he threatened to give to anti-US players? When have they been used against US Forces anywhere? Idle threats galore. /sarc

Plus Putin says: If this decision is made... then we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us.

That is the total extent to Putin's "threat". Making "appropriate decisions" to threats posed, is not a threat to anyone in the US UK or NATO.

AS I said before when I raised this issue in the Ukr thread -- Wow. Big call that. He's really laying down the law over this latest "red line" breach and escalation, Not! /sarc

It is another staged beat up. As if Putin is going to disclose his response/war strategy to a door stop question from the media .... this is plain silly commentary and hyperbole above. A nothing burger I think they call it.

Posted by: Fred | Sep 13 2024 8:19 utc | 6

to be clearer-
But Russian people have been saying "the war in Ukraine" for ages now ... including on Russia TV, RT, and TG channels

Posted by: Fred | Sep 13 2024 8:21 utc | 7

Posted by: Fred | Sep 13 2024 8:19 utc | 5

You silly goose, you make your argument out of ignorance. You can't read Russian, you don't know where to look for sources . The real red lines are well established in the Russian government, what triggers them is also well known, it's that the threshold historically has been set very high. Now it all changes, and the Russians are not bound by their old calculations anymore.

Posted by: Boo | Sep 13 2024 8:25 utc | 8

Many hope for logic, thought and rationality.
History has shown us that there are no reasons to hope for that.
We have had war continuously throughout our existence. To hope that man has suddenly discovered sanity is in vain.
The unmentionables want war, and they are going to get it.

Posted by: g wiltek | Sep 13 2024 8:25 utc | 9

Luckily RUAF has taken out most NATO GMLRS launchers in Ukraine during the Sumy-Kursk adventure. The ATACMS was envisaged to be the main weapon supposed to strike Russia.

The only thing they have is a few F-16 and missiles, severely limiting Nato potential.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 13 2024 8:25 utc | 10

Sorry, I forget this - "Russia has many means to respond to such threats. This includes direct fire on targets within France, the UK and the U.S. itself."

I strongly disagree. B is wrong here. Not going to happen/

Not over the use of long range missiles hitting targets inside Russia, nor will it happen over F16 launching long range missiles into Russia either ...

Nor over Putin's prior threat they would treat all F16s as being nuclear armed at all times. There's another empty threat.

Posted by: Fred | Sep 13 2024 8:26 utc | 11

I predict that USA/NATO will"allow" Ukraine to use Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles to be used deep inside Russia, but not U.S.ATAMCS missiles.
There are 2 questions: Is USA/NATO insane enough to do this? YES. Is Putin bluffing? NO.
Therefore I expect some SERIOUS SHIT to occur before the USA election.
We're on the eve of destruction.

Posted by: Anton Gorbatow | Sep 13 2024 8:27 utc | 12

Russia and NATO are heading for war, but both sides want the other side to fire the first shot.

Two pranksters have called Polish minister Sikorski. In the interview Sikorski says:

you mustn't lose Odessa and you mustn't let them come close to the [Dnepr] river
(youtube)

This means Russia simply has to continue - to the Dnepr, to Odessa - to provoke Poland, a NATO country, to intervene.

Posted by: Passerby | Sep 13 2024 8:28 utc | 13

Lord Bebo
@MyLordBebo
🇺🇦🇵🇱 “Stephan Bandera is Hitler’s whore”

— Poles (nationalists) protesting against Ukranian nationalism

That chant is pretty based … LMAO https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1833981329811124428
..............

WW2 The Eastern Front
@ShoahUkraine
This is from a history textbook in Ukraine 🇺🇦! Let's take a look what they teach their children in schools ! Inside the circle part , it says :

"The operation became a continuation of the 'Volhynia tragedy' of 1943, when Polish nationalists carried out mass killings of the peaceful population of Ukraine. The Volhynia tragedy, or Volhynia massacre, was one of the most horrific events of that period, as a result of which thousands of Ukrainians died, and national hostility between the Polish and Ukrainian communities reached its peak."

These people literally have zero shame ! They teach their children it was actually the Poles that masscared Ukranians in Volhynia! How can any Pole support these people ?!
https://x.com/ShoahUkraine/status/1834356735794131065

Denazification of western Ukraine. Before this is all over, Poland will without doubt accomplish that task. What goes around comes around as the saying goes.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 13 2024 8:28 utc | 14

Posted by: Fred | Sep 13 2024 8:26 utc | 10

Things are happening, but they are happening mostly inside Ukraine. Russian drones continue hammering Ukrainian air bases, which Nato tried to setup for aircraft rearming. Any aircraft launching anything in Russia will have come from a Polish base.

This is probably the context Putin is talking about.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 13 2024 8:29 utc | 15

Boo, I am quite capable, thanks anyway. I'll leave the fantasy making stuff up to you.

https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Ad-Hoc-Rescue

Posted by: Fred | Sep 13 2024 8:31 utc | 16

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation do not stop precision strikes in Ukrainian rear, destroying infrastructure facilities at military airfields, energy facilities, warehouses that support the operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the frontlines.

On the night of September 12, Russian forces launched new wave of strikes throughout Ukraine. More than 60 Russian kamikaze UAVs targeted Ukrainian rear regions. Explosions thundered in the Kiev, Poltava, Vinnitsa, Cherkassy, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson and other regions.

Russian drones struck several airfields of the Ukrainian Air Force. They included the Starokonstantinov airfield in the Khmelnitsky region, Konotop in the Sumy region, Nezhin in the Chernihiv region, and reportedly the airfield in Krivy Rih in the Dnepropetrovsk region.

Large fire broke out in the Khmelnitsky region as a result of Russian drone strikes at a large warehouse:

A series of strikes destroyed targets in the town of Konotop in the border Sumy region. The local authorities complained that the situation was critical after the strikes destroyed an energy facility. The local Konotop-300 substation probably came under attack. Water and electricity supplies were cut off in the town. According to local reports, the destroyed targets also included facilities used for accommodation of Ukrainian servicemen. The town of Konotop is an important logistics hub used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine for transfer of manpower and military equipment to the Russian border and to the Kursk region.

According to reports from the frontlines, Russian heavy bombs pounded Ukrainian military positions in the east of the Kharkiv region. Massive attack was reported near the village of Kolesnikovka located on the eastern coast of the Oskol water reservoir. Earlier, the Ukrainian military command reportedly sent several units of the 3rd Brigade to the area of the settlement, preparing for counterattacks in the Kupyansk directions.

The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the strikes. The official report claimed that Russian “operational and tactical aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, missile forces and artillery of groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation struck infrastructure facilities at airfields, energy facilities that support the activities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as concentrations of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment in 134 districts.”

Russian drone strikes continued during the day. More destroyed targets are likely to be revealed.

On the other hand, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continued attempts to attack Russian rear facilities with drones. Ukrainian attempts again led to no results. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, five Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed at night in the border regions. At least three more drones were destroyed during the day.

https://southfront.press/russian-drone-strikes-struck-military-facilities-airfields-across-ukraine/

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 13 2024 8:32 utc | 17

What the dumb Anglo-Saxon turds like old homo Freddie here don't understand is that the latest US moves give the Russians the desired carte-blqnche to hammer NATO:

The United States of America is actively working on a new edition of its nuclear doctrine, in which, we believe, the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons could be significantly lowered .
/Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Alexander Fomin/
#США

@new_militarycolumnist

Posted by: Boo | Sep 13 2024 8:36 utc | 18

Fred Flintstone at it again. No doubt Eddie 4skin will show up in due course.
......................

Many hope for logic, thought and rationality.
History has shown us that there are no reasons to hope for that.
Posted by: g wiltek | Sep 13 2024 8:25 utc | 8

My big take away from reading about war most of my life is that it quite often involves insanity, especially at times by the losing side. Or going out to conquer the world and being utterly destroyed in the process.

The west is filled with hubris, exceptionalism and few other nasties so fertile ground for insanity.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 13 2024 8:36 utc | 19

The Washington Post conceded as early as this year that Americans had given up in the Ukraine itself in terms of trying regain lost territory.

What they are doing now is widening or are trying to widen the conflict directly with Russia as their attempts in Ukraine have failed. Using British weapons as they are too afraid to use their own.

These new attempts will either end in a direct NATO / Russia conflict with missile strikes at the UK who are happy to leave these islands as sitting ducks, or will fail to achieve any purpose and change nothing. Basically a lose lose scenario for the west.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Sep 13 2024 8:51 utc | 20

The sociopaths hiding behind a proxy clearly refuse to understand that it ultimately Russia who decides whether this remains a proxy war or a direct confrontation.
That refusal seems mainly to maintain "plausible deniability" which actually is limited within their own self delusional narrative only.

Posted by: j rijntjes | Sep 13 2024 8:55 utc | 21

Simplicius the Thinker is on topic here ...

On my asymmetric in #4 he notes:

Thus, Putin is saying that for these systems to strike deep into Russia would necessarily mean NATO would be directly involved as a combatant in striking Russian territory in a more express way than ever before. The most obvious immediate Russian response would likely be to arm the Houthis with advanced anti-ship missiles which would straightaway endanger the entire US fleet.

The ramifications of this are far greater than most can imagine, given the cascading effect it would have. The US fleet is there to deter Iran and Hezbollah in protecting Israel. Should the Houthis possess an ability to completely cripple the US fleet, the falling chips would be: Israel’s defeat, which would mean the entire Empire’s defeat in the Middle East as Iran would reign supreme. This catastrophic sequence of events would result in the entire eventual collapse of the Western order. As such, the US obviously would not like to risk this scenario.

read on:

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/zelenskys-last-hail-mary-gets-off

Posted by: Don Firineach | Sep 13 2024 8:55 utc | 22

Victor vicktop55
@vicktop55
The US does not object to a nuclear war in Europe.

The Pentagon is going to simulate the consequences of a nuclear war

The US wants to know what consequences a global nuclear war would have for the agricultural sector. The Pentagon is looking for a contractor who will provide personnel, equipment and other resources to simulate such a situation.

The contract is worth $34 million. They want to carry out hypothetical nuclear strikes on Eastern Europe and Russia.

For the US, it would be better to simulate. https://x.com/vicktop55/status/1834145763951096080 t

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 13 2024 8:56 utc | 23

Posted by: Don Firineach | Sep 13 2024 8:55 utc | 21

Indeed. Using two F-16 and a few missiles to strike Russia, in return Houthis get even more advanced ASMs, Iraqi resistance groups get more advanced drones and missiles and US bases and troops turned into barbeque.

This is the way it needs to be.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 13 2024 8:57 utc | 24

So has Putin hit the French and English command centers that set the targeting data for their missiles? Nope. So Putin Makes empty threats.

Posted by: Surferket | Sep 13 2024 9:11 utc | 25

@unimperator | Sep 13 2024 8:57 utc | 23

Yes. I would go asymmetric and not directly at the Europeans ...

And the saner heads in the Pentagon know this ....

Posted by: Don Firineach | Sep 13 2024 9:11 utc | 26

Thus, Putin is saying that for these systems to strike deep into Russia would necessarily mean NATO would be directly involved as a combatant in striking Russian territory in a more express way than ever before. The most obvious immediate Russian response would likely be to arm the Houthis with advanced anti-ship missiles which would straightaway endanger the entire US fleet.

The ramifications of this are far greater than most can imagine, given the cascading effect it would have. The US fleet is there to deter Iran and Hezbollah in protecting Israel. Should the Houthis possess an ability to completely cripple the US fleet, the falling chips would be: Israel’s defeat, which would mean the entire Empire’s defeat in the Middle East as Iran would reign supreme. This catastrophic sequence of events would result in the entire eventual collapse of the Western order. As such, the US obviously would not like to risk this scenario.

read on:

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/zelenskys-last-hail-mary-gets-off

So why hasn't Russia been doing such things? Sincere question.

Posted by: burak | Sep 13 2024 9:15 utc | 27

Posted by: Don Firineach | Sep 13 2024 8:55 utc | 21

Simplicius is not god. He bought into the Spring 25 offensive just weeks before Elensky launched the absolutely surprise Summer 24 into Kursk that even caught Putin masturbating on his potty.
Later Putin even said US and the west planned the attack on Russian territory.
And hit some Swedish trainers for Ukie F16.
Not US and UK command centers.

Posted by: Surferket | Sep 13 2024 9:16 utc | 28

Just a curious thought.
What countermeasures would in fact be appropriate?

Although the event has not yet occurred, what would it be appropriate to go in retaliation if a British or US long-range missile landed on a deep Russian city and caused civilian damage?

One thought.
Since Ukraine, the player of the proxy war, was given missiles to attack Russia directly, so that Russia would also provide the Houthis and Hezbollah with their own long-range missiles and let them attack US and British warships and transports.
Make balanced in that they are providing their own missiles to a proxy force.

Or
Transports used to transport weapons during wartime are designated as ‘military targets’ and are not considered unarmed and unrelated.
For this reason, if long-range missiles caused damage to Russian cities, the idea of destructing aircrafts and vessels transporting long-range missiles to Ukraine during transit was also considered.
Russia had not yet, I believe, attacked weapons in transit before they left the UK and arrived in Ukraine.
However, if the logic is to regard US and UK missiles as a direct attack on Russia, I believe that missile weapons in transit could be designated as legitimate military targets.

Posted by: Nokaz | Sep 13 2024 9:26 utc | 29

A big argument in favor of vassalage on the part of the Europeans is America-is-the-mightiest-country-on-earth.

Suddenly Sinking a Carrier along with a couple of escorts would change that calculus PDQ.

Hmmm

Posted by: Exile | Sep 13 2024 9:27 utc | 30

I agree with Simplicius the Thinker, as cited by previous commentators.

Posted by: Maracatu | Sep 13 2024 9:27 utc | 31

A lot of useful information on Simplicius' post.

-70% of AFU energy grids destroyed
-The FoxBat A-22 indeed appears to come from Finland, with its transponder location from lake Pudasjarvi
-Ukraine will never join Nato or EU, just carrot on a stick
-US out of ATACMS and ATACMS launchers destroyed in Ukraine
-Zelensky 'plan': long range strike in Russia, hit military bases, airfields, the west has to use its air defense to cover western Ukraine, and the west has to send troops into western Ukraine to allow release of more slavekrainians to the front
-the United Kingdom sent a lot of obsolete weapons or vehicles to Ukraine
-Ukraine has run out of modern vehicles to equip new brigades (Forbes headline)
-Russia moved some assets further from the front, mitigating Nato potential to hit them with F-16 or missiles or ATACMS (now depleted)
-and other

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 13 2024 9:28 utc | 32

For me - Ukraine has lost the war with Russia - even with strong Nato help - not to lose face, with the rest of the world that's watching from the sidelines - Nato will have two choices - one is to force Zelensky to make a peace deal with Putin - or escalate the conflict - there hasn't been much talk coming out of Washington, Westminster and Brussels on the former - but there has been talk of supplying long range missiles to Ukraine from them.

If Ukraine - is allowed to use long range missiles to strike deep inside Russia - this would be a huge escalation in hostilities - and, it would only be natural for Putin to give the orders - to strike countries where these missiles are coming from - to stop severe damage, and possibly heavy casualties occurring on Russian soil.

From there on in - I expect things to spiral out of control - as strikes go from military targets to infrastructure - energy, and government areas of the countries involved.

One frightening scenario of this possible escalation is - that Russia is losing and Putin - orders any nukes left that haven't been destroyed to be launched - I can't recall a scenario, where a nuclear country on the verge of collapse due to war - has to make that final decision - of whether or not to launch its remaining nukes, I guess - we would only know what Putin's final decision would be at the time.

The same scenario applies to other nuclear nations, I hope we never find out - maybe it up to the citizens of the world - to stop this folly from ever happening afterall - its will be those folk - that are left to pick up the pieces, if there's no peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Sep 13 2024 9:29 utc | 33

Surferket 27: So you think Russia wasn't expecting the incursion into Kursk? I think the Russian General Staff sprung a trap.

Posted by: Maracatu | Sep 13 2024 9:31 utc | 34

Does this shows NATO feels threatened by Putin's warnings? They have measured him and found him wanting.

https://sputnikglobe.com/20240913/nato-plans-to-send-troops-to-ukraine-to-force-russia-to-hold-talks---russian-deputy-defense-1120131175.html

Posted by: Surferket | Sep 13 2024 9:33 utc | 35

Posted by: Maracatu | Sep 13 2024 9:31 utc | 33

Absolute rubbish. Another Putin the god mode worshipper.

Posted by: Surferket | Sep 13 2024 9:34 utc | 36

DD Geopolitics
@DD_Geopolitics
🇺🇸For the first time, the US government spent more than $1 trillion in a year on interest payments on the national debt, which currently stands at $35.3 trillion. This was reported by the Treasury Department. Interest payments are 30% higher than last year. The US budget deficit increased sharply in August and will approach the $2 trillion mark by the end of the year.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 13 2024 9:40 utc | 37

For all the dumbasses here who believe the idiotic western propaganda:

Let's start with the fact that Moscow's refusal to respond to the escalation from the West leads us straight to the third world war , which will be universal and nuclear. In the end, we will be forced to jump several steps at once in order to preserve ourselves and resort to strategic nuclear weapons . Constantly pushing back the "red lines" we are bringing Armageddon closer by leaps and bounds.

The most rational plan of action in the current situation looks like this. In the event of single strikes by Western missiles on Russian territory at strategic depth , we should respond with similar strikes by our non-nuclear missiles on the territory of the countries that produced the weapons systems that attacked Russia . That is, we should respond to Great Britain, France and the USA.

In the event of a massive missile strike, a nuclear response using tactical nuclear weapons is necessary . Moreover, it is better to give priority to specific military targets on the territory of those NATO countries that provide logistical support to Ukraine. For the most part, these are Poland and Romania . In addition, it will be necessary to strike with non-nuclear weapons at military facilities in Great Britain and France and American military bases in Europe .

Most likely, there will be a pause, after which the Western powers will begin to reassess Russia's readiness to raise the stakes and come to an agreement on a compromise . Of course, another, more severe scenario is also possible, which will open the way to further raising the stakes up to a general nuclear war. However, if Russia does not begin to respond, this severe scenario will inevitably be implemented in practice . And if Moscow raises the stakes, there is a good chance of avoiding it.

The result is a paradox: it is necessary to start or be ready to start a limited nuclear war in order to avoid a general one . But this is the current reality and the price for stubbornly not wanting to respond to opponents raising the stakes, hoping for their prudence. Even a year and a half or two ago, it would have been possible to get by with less . Now, however, we will have to make much more serious decisions. But even these may not be enough if we delay again. If no one is afraid of nuclear weapons, expect trouble.

Posted by: Boo | Sep 13 2024 9:43 utc | 38

Don Firineach | Sep 13 2024 8:55 utc | 21

I read in the last few days about a couple of carriers leaving the region. Putin spoke of arming other US 'adversaries' some time ago. No idea if that has anything to do with those couple of carriers leaving though.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 13 2024 9:44 utc | 39

Surferket | Sep 13 2024 9:34 utc | 35

Piss off troll.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 13 2024 9:44 utc | 40

Boo | Sep 13 2024 9:43 utc | 37

You quote an anonymous opinion there. Why? It a simple thing to state whose opinion it is or link it.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 13 2024 9:47 utc | 41

As I supposed amerika is using a workaround which they believe will not land them in the sh1t with the Russian Federation but will drop both england & France right into the poo.

According to Slavyangrad:

"US may allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with British Storm Shadow and French Scalp missiles, but not American ATACMS — The Times

▪️The Times' sources in governments of various countries said it was likely that this approach would prevail following the visit to Kiev of US Secretary of State Blinken and British Foreign Secretary Lammy.

▪️Vladimir Putin previously warned that if Western long-range weapons were used to strike Russia, this “would mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are at war with Russia.”
"

This is the sort of facile western sophistry which will only serve to annoy Russian leadership more than amerika fessing up, manning up and authorising JASMs to attack the RF will.

Storm shadow & scalp missiles rely on amerikan 'eye in the sky' satellite imagery for targeting. That data is downloaded passed on to englander military (englanders being the home of storm shadow weapons) or french military (whose troops aim & input data from amerikan satellites for scalp missiles).

Amerika will try to claim that they have nothing to with the terrorist attacks on Russian civilians but that is an outright lie.

As Simplicius said in a recent post jasm missiles which rely on GPS are easily jammed & sent off course by Russian EW. Storm shadow and scalp missiles use a different navigation system. They navigate by landmarks in the terrain. The data which the missiles rely upon to navigate is gathered by amerikan satellites, a fact which Russia is well aware, so they will not be accepting amerika's mealy-mouthed excuses should Russia cop an over the top attack on civilians in St Petersburg or Moscow.

On the other hand they may choose to go along with that and only punish england and france for these war crime - at least before november 5, in the hope than an incoming prez will wind down amerika's involvement in Ukiedom.

england & france will pay a heavy price for their stupidity which will destroy NATO probably and the eu possibly. idjits, I mean the end of both those imperialist institutions will be welcome by many but not western neolibs.
I worked out that this is the way the trip to ukiedom by lammy & blinken would likely go from comments they made last weekend so doubtless Russia did too and will have drafted a strategy that can deal with those potential variants.

Not only does the west telegraph its punches everytime, when it hits they are the most limp-wristed blows a bloke could serve up.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Sep 13 2024 9:53 utc | 42

I have been thinking about this too Nokaz (28).

I suspect that if it comes to it and they really are crazy enough to hit a Russian City with said weapons....
The initial response would be mostly symbolic as a warning. eg hitting a remote military site in a relevant NATO country with conventional Hypersonics.

Thus low or no casualties, deniable by the West to their populations....and a very real warning but hopefully enough to allow saner heads to prevail.
(I suspect that this may have already happened at least once...but I won't go into that.).

Posted by: Charlie Chap | Sep 13 2024 9:56 utc | 43

Were watching history in the making here.
Speculation is healthy, denial is'nt !

I'm packing my travel kit in my turbo charged
4×4, tank filled up, water containers food supplys, comprehensive meds. Sleep and cooking gear tick. Plus a list of freandly destinations.
I think i know exactly how this will play out, i cant say becouse the walls have ears,
In 2 hours i can be 100 mile in the opposite direction. Not to say i'm going right now, im not. When i do it will take 10 mins to move.

Starmer is the new zelensky and he'll be working from home.

Whats the opposite of a SMO.

The secret of liveing a long life is knowing when to leave, ask the people in Gaza or ukraine for that matter.

Posted by: Mark2 | Sep 13 2024 10:01 utc | 44

@Surferket | Fri, 13 Sep 2024 09:33:00 GMT | 34

LOL. You are becoming more and more like Brave Sir Shadowbanned. This is what's called rhetorical or diplomatic preemption. In order to forestall the potential that NATO might send troops, Russia says we know you will send troops, and have made preparations for them. Therefore, NATO cannot or will not send troops, since Russia expects them to do so.

Posted by: James M. | Sep 13 2024 10:02 utc | 45

According to several of our interlocutors, the Kremlin will begin the negotiation process on Ukraine after the US elections; before that, the General Staff has been tasked with driving the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the Kursk region and taking Pokrovsk.

The Russian army must ensure a complete advantage at the front before resuming consultations on a peace treaty, which will be our main advantage and Putin's new ultimatum on Ukraine, which is currently being prepared in the Kremlin.

It is already obvious that Kyiv cannot withstand the pace of military action, and strikes on critical infrastructure should shape the population's opinion about the futility of further resistance.

The Kremlin will resume the negotiating track only when the circumstances are most favorable to Russia.

The counteroffensive of the Russian Armed Forces, in parallel with the continuation of offensive actions in Donbass, demonstrate Moscow's ability to continue large-scale military operations.

The Kremlin is waiting for the results of the US elections, which will determine its further strategy for Ukraine. If Trump wins, there is a high probability of fixing the border along the current demarcation line (with the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the Kursk region). Harris's victory will mean a continuation of the war - Russia will begin to reset our energy unit again and create threats along the entire perimeter of the borders.

The goal of the Kursk adventure was to paralyze the Russian army. As a result, we cannot withstand the enemy's offensive in Donbass and are unlikely to be able to hold on to what we have captured in the Kursk region for long.

As in the case of Bakhmut, Zelensky's PR campaigns lead to the loss of Ukrainian territories and the senseless destruction of our forces.

🇺🇸🧩🇺🇦 The outgoing president's endless war strategy.

The Wall Street Journal criticizes Biden's strategy towards the Ukrainian conflict, describing it as "An endless war with the risk of nuclear escalation," with the main goal of holding the situation until the elections.

Biden's goal, according to White House sources, is to "improve Ukraine's strategic position as much as possible between now and the end of his term."

Logical

At the same time, "they are not pushing Ukraine to hold peace talks," since "Russia is not ready to conduct meaningful negotiations that would lead to an outcome acceptable to Ukraine," a White House source said.

Logical

However, with this approach of the American leadership, "the conflict seems endless and carries risks of escalation involving a nuclear Russia," the newspaper writes.

These are no longer Biden's problems.

The article is clearly ordered, because

A) it criticizes without offering solutions;
B) it does not take into account the motives of the current administration.

Because from the point of view of the White House's motives, everything is extremely logical. Biden did not accept Putin's proposal in 2021, thereby forcing him to challenge US hegemony militarily. The Kremlin failed to implement a police-political operation, after which the US launched a limited attack on Moscow through sanctions and Kyiv, but they also failed to achieve victory. Now all the realistic options for resolving the crisis for the Biden administration (peace or escalation) are worse than shifting this problem onto the shoulders of the next administration. That's exactly what he is doing: minimizing short-term losses.

We wrote that the downside of representative democracy in the postmodern world is the priority of maximizing short-term gains to the detriment of strategic goals. But that's life, so we move this way 🧩

Posted by: Down South | Sep 13 2024 10:05 utc | 46

Boo | Sep 13 2024 9:43 utc | 37

That sounds written by someone who considers Martyanov intelligent military expert.
And who is "we" in the text? Royal we or we, the village bar?

I read in the last few days about a couple of carriers leaving the region. Putin spoke of arming other US 'adversaries' some time ago.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 13 2024 9:44 utc | 38

They're moving towards China while the girls persons from Team 6 are training in Taiwan ( sputnikglobe.com/20240912/sowing-the-seeds-for-war-machines-next-conflict-us-navy-seals-reportedly-train-for-taiwan-conflict-1120120667.html ). Russia will not sell or give weapons to anyone unfirendly to the Bibi. Even worse, Yemen slippers make the Black Sea fleet look like complete amateurs, no soup for them!

Posted by: rk | Sep 13 2024 10:10 utc | 47

"Simplicius is not god. He bought into the Spring 25 offensive just weeks before Elensky launched the absolutely surprise Summer 24 into Kursk that even caught Putin masturbating on his potty.
Later Putin even said US and the west planned the attack on Russian territory."

What do you hope to achieve with such infantile banality?
Putin is absolutely right. The war is planned by the West.
If you do stupid illogical things, people generally get a surprise, if they themselves are used to logic.
Breaking into the bear cage is not logic by anyone's standard. Like petting the Tiger, scratching the lion or feeding the shark, by hand.
Do you expect this?
If not, would you not be surprised, unless you have written Zelensky off already as a complete idiot, in every sense of the word.
And no, this is a hypothetical question, I don't expect a sane answer.
Sigh.

Posted by: g wiltek | Sep 13 2024 10:11 utc | 48

Dima:

Ukraine's flank in Velyka Novosilka salient seems to be completely exposed, after developments west of Ugledar. RUAF captured Vodiane and probably moving further west.

RUAF moved to outskirts of Maksymilaniavka with a large AFV attack. The AFU front between Kurakhove and Kurakhovivka, separated by a body of water could split in two. RUAF can attack either direction forcing AFU force split.

Move to flank Toretsk from SW.

Kursk:
-the front runs next to Lyubimovka now, AFU AFVs have withdrawn from outskirts of Koronevo toward Sudzha, as the bottleneck tightens. RUAF strike them with bombs/drones
-AFU attempts and vehicles to withdraw from Kamarovka and Snagost were spotted and hit with bombs
-AFU moved into Tetkino
-AFU moved into Veseloye, SW of Glushkovo, which can potentially slow RUAF advance in Lyubimovka

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 13 2024 10:17 utc | 49

Mexican standing and slow fall or going down with a bang : no more exit strategy ... Sun Tsu would disapprove.

Posted by: Savonarole | Sep 13 2024 10:18 utc | 50

There's a potential cost to pushing Russia to asymmetric retaliation. The justification for Western navies steaming around the world provocatively was supposed to be to protect shipping lanes and "freedom of navigation". The official USN mission statement is:

Alongside our allies and partners, we defend freedom, preserve economic prosperity, and keep the seas open and free.

With the weapons the Houthis have currently, they obviously have failed to do that on one of the world's most important waterways, and can barely protect themselves. The Houthis are one upgrade away from making the Red Sea a "no sail" zone for NATO surface warships.

It's getting pretty clear the Emperor is buck-naked. And nobody wants to see Uncle Sam like that.

Posted by: billb | Sep 13 2024 10:18 utc | 51

Oh and dont forget to start draining your bank account right now, they'l stop you doing that soon.

Posted by: Mark2 | Sep 13 2024 10:20 utc | 52

What the dumb Anglo-Saxon turds like old homo Freddie here ...
Boo | Sep 13 2024 8:36 utc | 17

Fuck Off Troll with your made up fallacies and abuse you brain dead sock puppet.

Posted by: Fred | Sep 13 2024 10:21 utc | 53

Posted by: Fred | Sep 13 2024 8:19 utc | 5,

To your views' potential logical conclusion, it would support the concept, first articulated by Alex Jones in Feb 2022 that "an east vs. west gentleman's agreement has been established, regarding the use of a few tactical nukes to bring in a wide-reaching martial law status that will enable all powers to bring in a central bank digital currency, 15-minute city distopia and also, in addition to the collapse/potential default status of the western fiat currency debt-based society, cover up the massive jab-induced, worldwide death wave going on since early 2021. Scientists from many countries have already proven that 35+ million deaths have resulted via mRNA tech injections. So, Fred, my two cents? Scripted war or not, it's definately East vs. West - nukes and all - as to which currency trade system bloc survives this Fourth Turning to control the world for the next thousand years. My money's on BRICS. Period. 159 countries support my humble overview...

Posted by: ERing46Z | Sep 13 2024 10:22 utc | 54

Putin’s comment about a state of war is, IMHO, an invitation for any even headed group of us congressmen to start an impeachment process, against Biden, for usurpation of function of congress and/or incapability.

If congress is not really heard even for WWIII then the us constitution is no longer in place.

That would be my first line of reasoning.

If it goes kinetic then I have already mentioned a couple of options, depending on how public and strong it must be.

First warning could be a nuclear sub, the other side does not have to acknowledge it was hit unless they wanted (and if they want then all is probably lost and might as well have it start then)

If push comes to shove in a really big way, by their attitude from the start and by RF gently informing that gps data was found in a drone, then the UK has placed a target over Bristol (I remember we have a fellow bar colleague who might consider relocation )

Maybe this second point is the reason why there was such recent haste in placing another bullseye on Finland and/or other norsemen.

I would prefer the first, a nuclear exchange is nothing to play with .

My 2 cents

Posted by: Newbie | Sep 13 2024 10:33 utc | 55

US has just withdrawn its aircraft carrier from the Gulf of Persia, sending it toward China.

All this indicates that US navy and air force is completely overstretched everywhere. Also they have more carriers drydocked than what their naval doctrine requires to be deployed at any time. They have nothing left to deploy (omitting the fact here that carriers are close to useless against prementioned countries). If they blinked with war with Iran, they certainly can't fight China. They can't fight Houthis.

Right now is the moment to hit some US bases and ships in the Middle East, give arms to Houthis and resistance groups.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 13 2024 10:34 utc | 56

Ukraine Weekly Update, 13th September 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-e4b

Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Sep 13 2024 10:35 utc | 57

ERing46Z , what you speak of I have no knowledge of, nor opinion. My money is on Nature batting last. The world is 'mad' there are no sides worth mentioning, for nothing is sustainable nor based on logic or sanity. Anything can happen between now and a global cascading collapse. Wars, famines and mass depopulation is inevitable. No point thinking about the incidental happenings. But if I must, then Putin's door stop journo question is play acting at best.

And this post/article typical reactionary hyperbole of no importance beyond stirring up shit and attention seeking. What's the word, yes, another nothing burger at all levels.

Posted by: Fred | Sep 13 2024 10:35 utc | 58

meanwhile back at the armageddon ranch

G. Doctorow notes soberly:

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/09/13/putin-to-reporter-pavel-zarubin-nato-will-then-be-at-war-with-us/
Putin to reporter Pavel Zarubin: ‘NATO will then be at war with us…’

"....I add to this briefing what Russian talk shows on state television were saying last night about this whole question of the level of threat posed by Zelensky’s right to use the missiles as he sees fit. The fact is that Russia is mentally prepared for anything that the West can throw at it today via Ukraine, up to and including, for example, a missile attack on the Kursk nuclear power plant. Due to its unprotected outer structure, a strike there could result in a leakage of radioactivity similar to the Chernobyl catastrophe. We should not doubt that a Russian response to such an incident will be memorable if any of us survives it.

Accordingly, we must hope that Antony Blinken, Jake Sullivan and other demented leading personalities in the Biden administration will be shunted aside by Pentagon generals who necessarily have a more sober understanding of the means of retaliation at Moscow’s disposal today."

Posted by: michaelj72 | Sep 13 2024 10:40 utc | 59

I think Putin is gaming at not escalating before the US election. If Trump wins, there is a changed landscape, and US will most likely pull back on its imperialism. And Putin will not have to eescalate.
Germany is on the verge of economic depression, and there is no clear way forward for them. Ramstein looks like a tempting target if Putin is forced to make an example.
There is currently no defense against hypersonic missiles.
None.!

Posted by: g wiltek | Sep 13 2024 10:42 utc | 60

I wonder if this is a joke. Putin is not known for making empty threats ? Oh yes he is. Has anybody forgotten what he said in the first days of the SMO ? Threatening any country interfering and providing Ukraine with help ? Nothing happened.

The latest hubbub is completely stupid. I mean, NATO has already hit Crimea and tried to hit the Crimean bridge with SCALPs and Storm Shadows several times. So - correct me if I'm wrong - they have already hit Russia, Crimea being Russian (do we all agree here ?)with long-range weapons .

What did Russia do against France or Great Britain in return ? Chirp, chirp.

Now cue the Z-bots : "yes they did something ! But it was top secret because for some reason you should never retaliate openly ! It's a sign of weakness ! Trust me bro, Russia absolutely eviscerated the French and the Brits secretly, and it was such a good lesson for them that they now.. Err... Propose to escalate and strike the deep rear directly."

I mean, do you people even try to read yourselves ? Can't you realize the incoherent mess of thoughts you have accumulated, all because you refuse to acknowledge that the Kremlin is a bunch of corrupt pussies who would not dare strike openly a NATO country ?

I'll tell you what will happen. Nothing. And then in a few months, the Z-bots will move the goalposts again. "Well sure, NATO did strike Moscow, Kazan, Mourmansk, but as long as they don't strike Vladivostok it's Ok. Yes, that's it, Vladivostok ! That will be the real deal-breaker. You just wait, as soon as the Yanks threaten it Putin will really take the gloves off."

So predictable.

Posted by: Micron | Sep 13 2024 10:44 utc | 61

I pray that there are enough sane people in leadership positions in the West to stop this madness.

Posted by: mtw | Sep 13 2024 7:32 utc | 1

I have seen Biden wearing a MAGA hat: this gives hope.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Sep 13 2024 10:45 utc | 62

Putin already gave a clue; All those missiles of extra-territorial origin, need input from US satellites and Spy planes, to be effective. So the first targets (in my opinion, of course) will be some of the numerous spy planes and other surveillance equipment. Then the troops sent to "set up" the missiles for firing (wherever)

Would NATO under De Rutte, start a world war for several of them being eliminated?
*
These would be the first level of Russian retaliation, with others planned for. The Finnish "new" US base that may have been the one sending drones into Russia, could be a second.
***

PS; If that upsets the US they can always send their ultimate non-nuclear weapon, Lindsay Graham, to Ukraine, to shout loud threats against Russia, and wave his arms around a bit. ANYBODY would be scared of Linsay Graham in a "fluster-cluck".

Posted by: Stonebird | Sep 13 2024 10:49 utc | 63

Never wonder if US will "come to its senses," "run out of ammo," or "choose a cease fire." What motivates US elites is they cannot bear the thought of living on the same planet as ordinary Americans. They'd rather destroy the whole world than have to deal with our existence for one more day.

Posted by: susan mullen | Sep 13 2024 10:50 utc | 64

To summarize:

-NATO has nothing but aerial launched missiles, which realistically, are only a couple using limited basing and F-16 platforms
-The 550 / 900km range of Storm Shadow / JASSM is sufficient to launch from eastern/central Ukraine, while still reaching a lot of targets in Russia
-As a response Russia is continuously hammering AFU air bases in Ukraine, limiting basing opportunities
-JASSM has sufficient range to hit targets in Moscow from an area south of Kiev or Krivoy Rog
-AWACS operating in Belarus should be sufficient to detect any strike aircraft flying to or in those areas
-If aircraft armed in Polish bases (99 % certainty due to disrupted Nato base building efforts in Ukraine), then we can deduce it was a Polish strike guided by Britain

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 13 2024 10:53 utc | 65

So you think Russia wasn't expecting the incursion into Kursk? I think the Russian General Staff sprung a trap.
Posted by: Maracatu | Sep 13 2024 9:31 utc | 33

If that‘s the case it would mean, that the Russian General Staff doesn‘t care at all what happens to their own civilians. Furthermore on an international stage the incursion into Kursk doesn‘t look good.

So I highly doubt that it was a trap.

Posted by: NoName | Sep 13 2024 10:54 utc | 66

Posted by: NoName | Sep 13 2024 10:54 utc | 65

It was not a trap initially. It actually achieved a level of surprise.

The Nato built their force far away from the front, actually hundreds of kilometers, moved in a few days. The vehicles were hidden around Sumy and forests for a long time, separately. The forces stripped from Belarus border and Donbass were brought in within a few days at most when it was go time.

Essentially, there was nothing indicating a build-up on the border until shortly before go-time.

Nato satellites spent months identifying dispositions or weak or strong points in that area.

However, Russia eventually managed to turn it into a trap, as a consequence of Pentagon sending more reserves to hold their position in Kursk as their fire support assets like ATACMS launchers were taken out.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 13 2024 11:00 utc | 67

Posted by: Fred | Sep 13 2024 10:21 utc | 52

Buddy, your ugly mother is a troll, go sit on a dick and calm yourself down. I've been on this website for 10+ years, only started posting after Feb. 22. So shut the fuck up ugly turd

Posted by: Boo | Sep 13 2024 11:04 utc | 68

So - correct me if I'm wrong - they have already hit Russia, Crimea being Russian (do we all agree here ?)with long-range weapons .

What did Russia do against France or Great Britain in return ? Chirp, chirp.

Posted by: Down South | Sep 13 2024 11:13 utc | 69

🧩🌍🧩 Not a sweet November

At the end of October and beginning of December, several events will take place, the results of which will determine the global configuration for the near future, and perhaps for several years.

We will describe them not in the order in which they are held, but by their importance.

✅ The US elections are, of course, the main event of this fall. Vance voiced Trump's plan, which differs from Putin's plan in that Russia does not receive four regions in full, and Ukraine becomes a militarized country, which will allow it to carry out hybrid aggression against Russia in the future, as soon as there is a consensus for this in the West. At the same time, dying Europe should take full responsibility for the future of Ukraine.

The Democrats are clearly "extinguishing" the Ukrainian agenda before the elections. They do not want to give Trump extra arguments about the possibility of World War III. Therefore, everything related to attempts to drag the US into escalation is the work of lobbyists and the activity of Bankova.

🇬🇧 At the end of October, the BRICS summit will take place, where Russia will try to finally destroy the isolation model imposed on it by the West. Both Xi and Modi agreed to come for this. The summit will not develop a unified policy on the Ukrainian conflict, i.e. it will not be a mirror of the Swiss peace conference

Firstly, because the format is different. Secondly, it is not in Russia's interests. It is important for Russia that the Global South forms a unified position acceptable to it, and this position differs from Russia's position. Because it should become a kind of compromise, on the basis of which Russia will go to negotiations.

It is clear that Zelensky should not allow the situation to calm down under any circumstances, he needs to continue to escalate.

🇲🇩 Therefore, we call the elections in Moldova the third important event of this period. Not only are there real presidential elections and two antagonistic wings emerging, but also, within the framework of political technology, Sandu "wound up" a referendum on European integration for the elections, which should largely predetermine the future of the country. That is, it will be a kind of civilizational choice.

It is important that, given the limited escalation options, an invasion of Transnistria is becoming increasingly realistic, and the elections and referendum add spice to this option.

The elite mechanized and airborne assault brigades that were part of the Kursk region have long been withdrawn from it and are resting. An attack on the Zaporizhzhya NPP does not yet seem realistic, given the crisis at the front for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but an invasion of Transnistria is starting to play in completely different colors.

As a result, the result of these three events, as we have already written, will largely predetermine the future political map of the Northwestern Black Sea region. So let's be very careful with them🧩

Posted by: Down South | Sep 13 2024 11:16 utc | 70

the big problem now for us/uk and nato in general is the complete loss of face if they back down.

they dont care if russia nukes some european countries, in fact, we living here in western/central europe are nothing but expendable vassals.

but what they do care about is their standing in the world. if they run away with their dicks tucked away for all to see... oh nonono. we cant have that.

so escalation it is. they hope that russia will give them a facesaving deal, but i doubt that russia will oblige, not after the constant killing of civilians.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Sep 13 2024 11:17 utc | 71

It is like a professional boxing match where you know the opponent will go down by the tenth round. But you got to survive till then without getting knocked out.

Russia,China,Iran and rest of BRICS know ability of US to print unlimited dollar without consequences will be greatly diminished by end of the decade. Sure sign of that will be pull back from overseas bases. So they will want to avoid a nuclear confrontation till then. After US has sufficiently been weakened a killer blow possible.

The short term danger period is till US elections. If Trump wins things cool down. Feel if pentagon generals are sure of a Trump victory they may simply ignore provocative commands of the present administration. UK is the dangerous factor here which need to be checkmated

Posted by: Joe | Sep 13 2024 11:25 utc | 72

I pray that there are enough sane people in leadership positions in the West to stop this madness.

We don't have anyone sane with the required amount of authority in leadership positions.

Posted by: mspl | Sep 13 2024 11:26 utc | 73

However, Russia eventually managed to turn it into a trap, as a consequence of Pentagon sending more reserves to hold their position in Kursk as their fire support assets like ATACMS launchers were taken out.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 13 2024 11:00 utc | 66

I agree with you. From my point of view it wasn‘t a trap but the Russians are now making the best of this shit show (aka Kursk incursion). On the other hand if the Ukrainians had reached the Kursk Power plant and/or Kursk City (if that really was the plan to begin with) … different outcome…

Posted by: NoName | Sep 13 2024 11:29 utc | 74

We don't have anyone sane with the required amount of authority in leadership positions.
Posted by: mspl | Sep 13 2024 11:26 utc | 72

Well, maybe not „sane“ but hopefully some „saner“ leaders ;)

Posted by: NoName | Sep 13 2024 11:31 utc | 75

The West will do anything to disrupt, halt, interrupt the October BRICS Kazan ho-down. Even any false flag, chemical or terrorist act can be expected.

US just surpassed 1 Trillion INTEREST alone payments this month, exceeding Soc Sec & even MIC budgets. The absurdity of having a private central bank in control of your national treasuries. I digress, I was pointing out the desperation isn't just "battlefield" collapse, or the fake "election" garbage.

They are militarily defeated, they are politically defeated (no longer able to wield the "rules based order" genre and pass UNSC nonsense as they please) and soon, trade will be out of the dollar dominance and the dollar will just be another currency amongst others.

I don't see Putin widening the war, regardless of targets in the Russian Federation hit by NATO, unless military targets, or some completely insane terrorist attack. (Moscow theater attack still unaccounted for, these are not imminent threats).

There's no reason for the Kremlin to change their strategy unless an imminent threat to their security is involved. Other than that, looks like West is going down in flames, albeit, slowly for awhile, but nonetheless, the glory days are long gone.

Russia and China should just keep doing what they're doing for the next 10 years and West will be a byword hardly mentioned or remembered by 2035.
I don't know, I'd avoid a WW3 that the West is provoking if it is possible. It just takes the rest of the world down in flames with the West, so whether "Putin looks weak" or "China doesn't do anything" by these stupid one-offer's of terrorist attacks and all the stupid provocations, beside its looking more likely that the ME will go up in flames first, as the West uncontrolled poodle Nuttyahoo isn't about to let the Mediterranean US ships leave without firing on Lebanon.

What a coincidence that Moscow & China are having their 2024 Sea drills all month?

Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 13 2024 11:31 utc | 76

According to several of our interlocutors, the Kremlin will begin the negotiation process on Ukraine after the US elections; before that, the General Staff has been tasked with driving the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the Kursk region and taking Pokrovsk.

It is clear that Russian conditions for negotiations are so minimal that we can say that Putin is begging for peace. He was fooled wing Minsk I, MInsk II and Istanbul negotiations, but still, he hopes he can again in favor of his "western partners". He is a scared old man.

Posted by: vargas | Sep 13 2024 11:34 utc | 77

Posted by: Fred | Sep 13 2024 10:35 utc |
It's not clear if you're a hodge-podge of AI disgorgement, an Ivy League barker of carnival variety, or a paid stooge for Western diversion, but Putin never offered any specifics as to Russia's reaction to NATO/U.S. Bullyboy long range provocations.
1. Ukraine is but a pawn in the game. Dangerous because it is along Russia southwestern border. But a pawn nonetheless.
2. Russia has overwhelming resources. The U.S. and Europe have hypothecations a megaphone. U.S. interest on this years fiscal period? $ 1,200 Billion. Winning ?
3. If you get the war you are so eager for, whether nuclear or not, I hope you get to be one of those creatures who can scamper into your bunker, for when you come out, then...your scalp is in play.

Posted by: kupkee | Sep 13 2024 11:34 utc | 78

66 - I doubt whether it was a Russian trap from the get go. Allowing a sliver of Russian territory to be overrun by Kiev is a considerable loss of face. The assumption it was set up as a trap is too much like the mentality at Martyanov's site, where everything Putin, Shoygu and so forth do is an expression of consummate genius and NATO/Kiev are abject fools and trannies as well. No it does not work like that.

Posted by: Waldorf | Sep 13 2024 11:40 utc | 79

RT:
NATO states could send troops to Ukraine – Russian military
The military bloc’s members are planning to deploy troops to the country, Deputy Defense Minister Aleksandr Fomin has warned

The West wont allow Ukraine to be defeated.
Contrary to Putin who is now satisfied with the minimum, the collective West is still going for maximal goals.

Posted by: vargas | Sep 13 2024 11:41 utc | 80

Russia and NATO are heading for war, but both sides want the other side to fire the first shot.

This is roughly how I felt about Donbass in early 2022. I was rather surprised by Putin's decision. But I can't second-guess it, or what occurs now.

Posted by: Call it what u will | Sep 13 2024 11:47 utc | 81

The response was likely given in Putin's reply about US satellites. The Nudol (A-235) missile has yet to make an appearance on the stage.

Posted by: KirovLes | Sep 13 2024 11:49 utc | 82

@Trubindi 75

Agree. Retaliation for strikes on Crimea and Russian territories to the north of Ukraine has so far been limited to massive missile/drone strikes across The Ukraine - but that's not to say Russia does not have more far-reaching options. Like those war ships parked in Cuba and Venezuela. A nuclear strike on the US east coast very do-able from there... if they really want to see if hypersonics are unstoppable...
I suspect back-channel negotiations between Washington and Moscow have reached some understanding on this point - but that's not to say they're to be trusted. I also suspect the real timetable for NATO escalation is measured by the US election...

Posted by: Gerry Bell | Sep 13 2024 11:55 utc | 83

the fact tha NATO has very few conventional forces available to it and certainly cannot conduct a war in Europe as things stand, says that they feel nuclear strikes are the only really option for them in any conflict with Russia.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Sep 13 2024 11:56 utc | 84

Posted by: KirovLes | Sep 13 2024 11:49 utc | 81

The only problem with satellites is US has thousands of satellites. Pentagon has mandated every commercial US satellite to carry spy equipment and cameras. So you take one out, another one comes into range 30 seconds later, and so on.

Things like Nudol are very expensive to take out single satellites. A space based method is needed, with a powerful propulsion can quickly maneuver to objects. One possibility is a 'garbage collector, with a large convex parabola net, made of steel, that can capture objects.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 13 2024 11:56 utc | 85

It is fortunately less the direct war with NATO although the margin is getting slim.
It is more light a malign operation - though even that can be viewed as act of war, as can economic malign actions and certainly aiding sabotage operations. Putin has had more than enough reason to declare war, the issue is does that improve the situation for Russia and that is the calculation that the West is making. I think that in war it is sometimes necessary and advantageous to be rash, unreasonable, unpredictable - this has been Russia's weakness in this escalation game. The calculation is something like: Yes, it will piss them -off but what would they do about it. Well, that works both ways. I think that with it looking like Harris team will win, Russia is actually dealing with the new administration at this point.

Posted by: jared | Sep 13 2024 12:02 utc | 86

Direct quote from Simplicious article referencing Sikorski, Poland's position - Russia/Ukraine:
"Sikorski confirms: “There is no willingness in Europe to have a war with Russia, this is an absolute red line.”
As a country over-run by Germany and Russia in the past, and bearing legitimate grudges against both, it is Poland that is effectively on the Front Line if Ukraine's American Ejaculation Project gets any further out of whack. Noises made in public, are not necessarily the same tunes being played in private.
If the West could turn the clock back, diplomacy would have been the stronger, better, more sane play than awakening Russia (and China).

Posted by: kupkee | Sep 13 2024 12:04 utc | 87

If Russia wants to strike a painful blow to the west, I suggest: Buy gold.

Posted by: jared | Sep 13 2024 12:05 utc | 88

NATO, Biden (if involved at all), and Blinken are a feckless trio. Outside of sheer incompetence, here are some reasons why I think these fools are all over the place. All thoughts are welcomed.

1. Balancing Deterrence and Diplomacy:
The U.S. and NATO are attempting to maintain a delicate balance between deterring Russian aggression and avoiding direct confrontation that could escalate into a broader conflict, potentially even nuclear. This leads to sometimes ambiguous or shifting messaging, where strong support for Ukraine is combined with efforts to avoid provoking Russia too aggressively.

Example: While providing Ukraine with military aid, NATO has refrained from sending troops directly into the conflict to avoid a direct war with Russia.

2. Differing National Interests within NATO:
NATO is an alliance of many countries with differing priorities. Some NATO members, particularly those in Eastern Europe (like Poland or the Baltic states), want a much more aggressive stance against Russia, while others, such as Germany or France, have been more cautious due to their economic and energy ties with Russia. As a result, NATO’s collective actions can appear inconsistent, reflecting these internal divisions.

Example: Germany initially hesitated on supplying heavy weapons to Ukraine, while other NATO countries pushed for quicker, more decisive military support.

3. Gradual Escalation of Support:
The U.S. and NATO have slowly increased their support for Ukraine over time, as the conflict evolved and the situation on the ground changed. Early in the war, the U.S. and its allies focused on defensive aid. As Ukraine demonstrated resilience, Western powers began sending more advanced weaponry. This gradual escalation can seem inconsistent, but it reflects a cautious approach to avoid immediate escalation with Russia.

Example: Initially, the U.S. and NATO hesitated to provide advanced systems like HIMARS or tanks, but later reversed that decision as the war progressed.

4. Uncertainty About Putin’s Goals:
Western leaders have often had to respond to the unpredictability of Russian President Vladimir Putin's strategies and objectives. Russia’s evolving tactics in the war and Putin’s rhetoric about red lines and nuclear threats have caused Western policymakers to adjust their positions in real-time, sometimes making it appear as though there is inconsistency.

Example: When Russia annexed parts of eastern Ukraine or threatened nuclear escalation, the U.S. and NATO shifted their messaging, making certain forms of aid contingent on Russia’s actions.

5. Public Opinion and Domestic Pressures:
Public opinion within the U.S. and NATO countries can shift, particularly as the conflict drags on. Political leaders, including President Biden and Secretary Blinken, are under pressure to respond to domestic concerns (e.g., rising energy prices, economic impacts) while still maintaining support for Ukraine. This balancing act can sometimes result in shifts in policy that appear inconsistent to observers.

Example: In the U.S., there has been a growing divide in public opinion, with some segments advocating for more aid to Ukraine, while others argue for reducing involvement due to economic costs.
6. Ukraine’s Changing Needs:

Ukraine’s needs on the battlefield have evolved throughout the war, and the type of support that the West provides has had to adapt. Early in the war, the focus was on small arms and defensive systems. As the war has continued, Ukraine has needed more sophisticated weaponry to counter Russia’s evolving strategy.

Example: As Ukraine transitioned from defense to offense, its requests for Western artillery, air defense systems, and tanks increased, prompting shifts in Western policy.

7. Communication Strategy:
Diplomatic communication often includes mixed messages as a deliberate strategy to keep opponents off balance or to maintain strategic ambiguity. This ambiguity can be perceived as inconsistency, but it is sometimes a calculated approach to keep options open.

Example: The U.S. and NATO have sometimes kept their exact military commitments vague to prevent Russia from predicting their responses.

Posted by: Dogon Priest | Sep 13 2024 12:05 utc | 89

reply to 21

Thank you for your post. Rather than going back and forth on Putin's character or that of others - or immediate descent into WWIII, I appreciate the fleshing out of what Russia could do in response.

I have wondered how Israel is given carte blanche to kill anybody anywhere with no repercussions. Why not everybody else? I'd also like to see Russia seize ships or other assets related to the financial thefts by the EU. Whatever the speculations, Ukraine and the West may run out of long range weapons or Russia may just seize more land for a buffer.

Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 13 2024 12:06 utc | 90

PS: They are also afraid of Putin and it shows.

Posted by: Dogon Priest | Sep 13 2024 12:07 utc | 91

Posted by: Dogon Priest | Sep 13 2024 12:05 utc | 88

Nato may have tried to create an illusion that they are escalating, but in reality, Russia has managed to thwart every level of escalation, for example, adapting air defense to Nato missiles, depleted Nato arsenals of air defense missiles and systems, depleting self propelled artillery, de-militarizing not only Ukraine but the US and NATO.

The newest level of imaginary escalation is envisaged a Storm Shadow striking the Kremlin, after previous attempts to escalate have been neutered. We moved to symbolic escalation as the battlefield level escalations have been rendered moot.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 13 2024 12:17 utc | 92

I guess satellites could be targeted?

Posted by: Joe | Sep 13 2024 12:21 utc | 93

By the way, regarding sending Nato troops in Ukraine. Zelensky himself said recently (also read Simplius post), that he wants Nato to send troops to release even more Slavekrainians to the front.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 13 2024 12:21 utc | 94

Sadly, there is a very clear, consistent red line that repeats in every single Nato-Initiative: they get it wrong. Every single time.

The war on terror was supposed to eradicate the 1000 or so dangerous terrorists worldwide. And endet up producing 100000.
The liberation of Libya created a hellhole with no order or governance that funnels hundreds of thousands of refugees to Europe each year.
Syria was Desaster. In the end, it was Russia that shut down IS. not NATO.
In Afghanistan, after killing hundreds of thousands of people, wasting hundreds of billions of Euros, NATO had to learn from CNN that they had lost the war. Our brave soldiers and their generals had their heads so deep in their a****s they had not even noticed the Taliban had advanced all the way to downtown Kabul.
In Ukraine, NATO figured they bring Putin to his knees in no time at all, with sanctions and a few truckloads of helmets and ammo. That was two-and-half years ago... They went from lancets to artillery to tanks to war planes to now long range cruise missiles. With no plan to win the war. And oblivious to the fact that Russia will have to assume those missiles to carry nuclear warheads.

Showing a clear trend: for every war NATO loses, they start a bigger one.

Any chance we can stop them before doomsday?

Posted by: Marvin | Sep 13 2024 12:23 utc | 95

Trouble in The Garden.
What a SURPRISE for the gods - Borrell, VDL, Anglo French and Zionazis - fascists and their mass propaganda efforts.

All together now to the tune of ‘Guantanamera’ #

‘ Lord Bebo
@MyLordBebo
Sep 11
🇺🇦🇵🇱 “Stephan Bandera is Hitler’s whore”

— Poles (nationalists) protesting against Ukranian nationalism

That chant is pretty based … LMAO

Sep 11, 2024 · 9:29 PM UTC ‘

When even the perennial dumb poles, always the losers in every European misadventure at returning to an empire, realise that THEY are being taken for yet another ride …

This Nazio proxy goose is cooked stick a fork in it.

Don’t worry our British Crown Aristo arseholes are about to get drilled new ones too.
SHerr Starmztrooper and DummyLammy get to carry the can - by inviting the destruction of multiple long-standing secret bases through the ME and Africa as they are encouraged to ‘Carry on fukraining’

Will U.K. get hit directly - I doubt it , unless Starmztrooper declares war first in DC today ! Then it will be obvious to the population that we started it.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Sep 13 2024 12:23 utc | 96

Wait.. dear B, you are saying president Putin does not make an empty threat ? Where is his threat ? This statement ? "we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us"
Well, if that is a threat then I don't know how to qualify what our warmongers say..

Posted by: Stephane | Sep 13 2024 12:31 utc | 97

Hopefully they’ll destroy the homes of Blinken, Sullivan, Austin and Nuland.

Posted by: Sentient | Sep 13 2024 12:38 utc | 98

NATO training in Sweden, how to receive massive casualties from Baltic states and Finland. Looks like the willing replacements are here.

⚡️ NATO Exercise to Coordinate Mass Transport and Care of Casualties from Finland and the Baltic States (❗️) are taking place in Sweden for the first time, Sveriges radio reports.

✨ That is, the Alliance is preparing for the fact that they will have many wounded in the Baltics and Finland.

The war will be long.
https://t.me/two_majors/31715

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 13 2024 12:40 utc | 99

Imagine the surprise of the American people when they wake up to discover that we are at war with Russia over a piece of terrain that 80% of them could not even find if given a map of Eastern Europe.

Hang on tight kids. Our thirty five year bellicose foreign policy concocted by Washington’s neocons and globalists is coming to a termination point. Yes indeed, the MIC is alive and well in bipartisan DC.

Just remember; it was we the American people who voted for the likes of H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and very soon, maybe even Kamala Harris. We are only getting today what we paid for. D*MN!

Posted by: Packard | Sep 13 2024 12:40 utc | 100