Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 30 2024 21:07 utc | 99
So, low IQ, bumblers, spivs and abject fools is all we’ll ever see, and sadly until after the ugly consequences of WW3 clears them out. ..
That’s well known, but “we” have to do “something” against those Nulands + Blinkens, what shall we do ?
Is it all only to discuss, or is it time to remeber some guys like “Staufenberg” in Germany 1945 ?
Sorry, that German guy had forcing restistance against ‘its’ Furer Nazi A.Hit-ler.
Why not have any resistance against any of that current Nulands + Blinkens, yet so far?

Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Sep 30 2024 21:49 utc | 104

There has been a general change in the “line” of the propaganda organs (mainstream media) for several months at least. Usually this sort of thing means the USG is going to abandon the Ukraine project and leave it to the chumps, marks, punters, rubes whatever you want to call them in the EU.
We’ll see whether or not Israel gets the same treatment eventually, but I doubt it but it’s certainly possible. The US always abandons allies when the going gets rough.

Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Sep 30 2024 21:52 utc | 106

…
So why isn’t Russia doing something about these satellites?
…
Posted by: Skeletor | Sep 30 2024 10:27 utc |
10

Russian have their own satellites that spy on the US. That’s how Russia is able to know if the US are deploying more ICBMs, if they are building a secret nationwide bunker, how many bombers they have an so on.
The sane people in charge of Russia doesn’t want a nuclear war, but also they don’t want to be surprise, so it is on their interests to have their space eyes on the west, and at the same time accept that the west have their space eyes on them.

Posted by: Marcos E. | Sep 30 2024 22:07 utc | 108

Posted by: flying dutchman | Sep 30 2024 17:19 utc | 68
You wish, dumbo. Russian leadership is gunning for the whole of Ukraine. Main figures are already saying it, and who is gonna stop them – the English pedos? The moment the baltic nazi cretins try to blow up Kaliningrad the whole of western gayrope will be obliterated

Posted by: Boo | Sep 30 2024 22:32 utc | 110

Russian flags and Victory banners raised in different parts of
The operation to liberate Ugledar continues. Let us recall that Ugledar has long been the largest fortified area of ​​the Ukrainian Armed Forces southwest of Donetsk. The enemy group created this fortified area, among other things, with the aim of breaking through in the direction of Mariupol. These were the plans hatched by the Ukrainian command before the famous “counteroffensive” of 2023.
Russian troops have now captured at least 40% of Ugledar’s territory. There are reports that our fighters are raising flags in different parts of the city.
The enemy confirms that it has lost control over the eastern part of the city and partly over the western part. Thus, the pincers around the remaining units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the city (and these are the remnants of the 72nd and 58th brigades) are tightening.
Now the Ukrainian military is concerned, perhaps, with only one question: how to get out of the encirclement they found themselves in in Ugledar. According to the latest information, many are waiting for darkness to try to break out on foot in the direction of Bogoyavlenka under its cover. Only the escape routes, which are essentially field paths, as the Ukrainian Armed Forces themselves admit, are actively being shot at by our troops.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 30 2024 22:42 utc | 112

@Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 30 2024 21:59 utc | 107
The US wing of Stellantis, Jeep-Chrysler-Dodge-RAM, is responsible for half of Stellantis’ profits and is in severe trouble. They recently cut US production by 200,000 for the second half of 2024 vs the second half of 2023, together with increasing sales incentives in the US.
“In its profit warning, Stellantis said it expected to finish the year with a negative cash flow of 5 billion euros to 10 billion euros, ($7.5 billion Cdn to $15 billion Cdn) instead of positive. The carmaker, which was created in 2021 from the merger of PSA Peugeot with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, also dropped its operating profit margin guidance to 5.5 per cent to 7 per cent, instead of double digits.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMaPRw5-ukU
There is no love lost for Stellantis US which hasn’t been seen as a US car company since its purchase by Daimler in 1998 (DaimlerChrysler from 1988 to 2007) then Fiat in 2014 after Chrysler had been rescued during the 2008 GFC. Then Fiat and PSA Peugeot merged in 2021. There will be very little support for Stellantis US if it gets in trouble again, more a readiness to let it go after it screwed US and Canadian workers after being bailed out in 2008. First half Stellantis global profits were down 48% in H1 2024 y-o-y.
Market cap of only US$48 billion with a P/E ratio of 3. Stellantis US is the known quality laggard, but during COVID ramped its prices into the stratosphere by 60%+ in 5 years, hence the sales problems and large dealer inventory. Its priced for a severe margin squeeze as prices have to come significantly down. There will be much more layoffs, which will not prove its already shitty reputation in the US.
The Jeep brand would probably be purchased by another company, maybe also RAM. Chrysler and Dodge may very well disappear.

Posted by: Roger | Sep 30 2024 22:51 utc | 114

Posted by: Newbie | Sep 30 2024 20:28 utc | 93
Not bothering me, but don’t like narrative-shapers, like weeds, they start to gain ground unless countered.
As for the mini-incursion, I think it’s institutional memory kicking in, they are just going through the playbook trying to find something that will take the pressure of the main incursion that has calcified due to lack of movement.
Remember, an assault is over as soon as it stops, at the tactical level this is where the NCO’s and lieutenants earn their pay, kicking and cajoling, threatening and inspiring their men to keep moving. At the higher level it’s why companies/battalions attack in waves, so that momentum is maintained. At the operational level this is where the senior officers earn their pay, devising, crafting even, plans that allow the maximum possible combat power, for a force, whilst maintaining its ability to sustain it. This is why clear objectives, with clear timetables (phase-lines) are essential for such plans to have a chance of success.
Ukraine is compounding error upon error, reconstituting a failed plan, reinforcing failure and now artificially maintaining momentum by expending troops at an unsustainable rate, for little purpose. Given they have repeatedly done this, it’s suggestive of a malaise and Peter Principle promotions of the General staff, caused by attrition/political interference.
As for numbers committed, the traditional separation of bayonet strength from the total, (with the 30% calculation for combat ineffectiveness ) is challenged by the advent of ISR capabilities that render everyone a potential frontline soldier, as far as casualties are concerned, even perhaps reversing the standard casualty bias. Casualties are caused by exposure, and when the REMF is just as likely (or more likely) to be injured, then perhaps the CE formula needs to be revisited. Even if the RuMOD figures are given a 50% haircut then the Ukrainians are simply going to run out of combat credible (able to attack and defend) units and will be forced to replace with largely static territorial units. Which seems to be happening.
A bit more rambly than usual, but work’s been quite hectic, sorry.

Posted by: Milites | Sep 30 2024 22:59 utc | 116

Posted by: Milites | Sep 30 2024 23:10 utc | 117
It is also arguable that losing Ukrainsk, and further Tsukuryne, and potentially Hirnuk soon will seriously hamper any AFU effort to defend Kurakhove. Forget about anything within 50 km west of Ugledar.
Velyka-Novosilka is the next stop after a very wide area of open fields and small villages, rolling the Zaporozhye front from the west. In fact, arguably the Zaporozhye line is also crumbling, albeit whether this is due to lack of priority (possible, as Kursk continues take all precedence), or they remove troops from Zaporozhye line to the SE Pokrovsk area.
Didn’t follow in extreme detail last few days but apparently RUAF is moving in the Zaporozhye line too, perhaps as a result of AFU not being there to defend it as much as before.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 30 2024 23:23 utc | 118

According to the latest information, many are waiting for darkness to try to break out on foot in the direction of Bogoyavlenka under its cover. Only the escape routes, which are essentially field paths, as the Ukrainian Armed Forces themselves admit, are actively being shot at by our troops.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 30 2024 22:42 utc | 112
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 30 2024 22:53 utc | 115
Trouble is, as the Russians found out in the 1st Chechen War, you might increase the individual groups chances (though anything more than 20% casualties is catastrophic) but you run the risk of the majority of the remaining defenders being captured/killed.
The 72nd Brigade has been effectively destroyed, Ugledar’s capture will unhinge and dislocate the entire Ukrainian scheme of defence in this area, causing even more casualties. A fact which needs to be taken into account when discussing the impact of any operation, not just immediate numbers.
Posted by: Milites | Sep 30 2024 23:10 utc | 117
But Bogoyavlenka can be no more than a whay point, from the map I only see few high buildings (that can be FABed away) and little treelines (or am I seeing wrong?)

Posted by: Newbie | Sep 30 2024 23:35 utc | 120

Posted by: Newbie | Sep 30 2024 23:26 utc | 119
It’s commonly believed that cats play with their prey, before killing it, the truth is the ‘play’ people observe is the cat weighing up the right moment to strike. A premature close, might risk injury that whilst not immediately life-threatening could result in the cat being unable to survive. Thanks to the fusion of ISR to 21st century platforms, any dominant force is in the same situation. Russia is in the same situation, winning operationally, but losing strategically is their nightmare scenario.
Given Ukraine’s inability to wrest and maintain the operational initiative, I’d say the following.
50% haircut for Russian claims.
1/3rd of Ukrainian soldiers are combat capable, the remainder territorial units (less good troops, now due to the impact of PR ops and over-extending offensives)
Drones+Western ISR is a 50% force multiplier bonus
So 600K with only 150-200k capable of doing anything but defend, seems to fit the picture quite well. This latter group are constantly being diluted by raw recruits, though veteran brigades can somewhat counter the degrading effect due to the core survivors. The reservists are at a near constant, as replacements are far more rapidly created by successive enforced mobilisations.
The trouble for Ukraine is the game is changing, or more accurately Russia is changing it. The reservists are losing the force-multiplier, vital to the strategies coherence, of fixed fortifications. Witness the wings collapsing around Ugledar, a situation that will get worse, especially as the regular reserves are being attrited. So take care with predicted timelines, but do agree the real situation is being revealed by the respective capabilities of the two sides.

Posted by: Milites | Sep 30 2024 23:55 utc | 122

The sane people in charge of Russia doesn’t want a nuclear war, but also they don’t want to be surprise, so it is on their interests to have their space eyes on the west, and at the same time accept that the west have their space eyes on them.
Posted by: Marcos E. | Sep 30 2024 22:07 utc | 108
Knocking out enemy surveillance capabilities is generally accepted as an announcement of nuclear war. Downing one US satellite might be a message, but knocking them all out would trigger nuclear war.

Posted by: Honzo | Oct 1 2024 0:00 utc | 124

@unimperator #121
Early in the SMO, I went on a web scrape for high resolution maps of Ukraine and one that I archived is a rail map. When considering the logistics, the Russian forces are making gains in terms of using rail. The big one was Avdeevka, which got Donetsk significantly reconnected. Vuhledar will be another significant rail win. The Russians built new rail to Crimea, staying closer to the coast. When Vuhledar falls, other rail lines not previously usable will become so.
One thing I’ve never understood is that since Ukrainian trains are 100% electric (unlike the US diesel-electric locomotives) why Russia has laid off until recently on the power grid. Most of the discussion of Ukraine’s energy woes are talking about not being able to keep warm in winter, but I would think equally significant is the impact on logistics.
I hope this finds you well

Posted by: ockham | Oct 1 2024 0:10 utc | 126

Russia and Iran must plan and carry out major “fireworks” displays in their respective battlefields around the time of the US election.

Posted by: Jason | Oct 1 2024 0:41 utc | 128

@Posted by: Newbie | Sep 30 2024 23:26 utc | 119
Did you take into account new Ukrainian recruits during the period of the SMO? They have been working hard at press-ganging as many as they can find.
Posted by: Roger | Oct 1 2024 0:06 utc | 126
Of course, how else could I model everything to get to my hypothesis?
1.950.000 mobilized for the whole SMO so far, if you include the initial standing army and other defense forces.

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 1 2024 0:53 utc | 130

Newbie said he was going to embarrass Simplicius with a devastating critique of his math. I looked at the recent posts on the Simplicius substack today and saw nothing of the kind. Some valid yet tepid complaints about his AI methods, no big takedown.
Posted by: obvio | Oct 1 2024 0:14 utc | 129
Went first to check several potential models and proxys.
And he just gave two disparate estimates, one 154.000 , the other 1.320.000.
And using only 5 and 150 Dumbars.
It’s nested, 5-15-50-150-500, and in families might not be applicable at all.
Want one that agrees with the numbers I discussed above with milites? (values in thousands)
Pop pct.know pop.know Dumbar
27000 77% 20790 50 416 friends Aquaintances with whom you’d discuss
27000 22% 5940 15 396 good friends mostly family
est 406
Add some grandparents, uncles/nephews/cousins/inlaws and a family is closer to 15 than the 5 the AI gave.
But there are tons of ways the numbers might match or not. What’s the population? People do still talk on the internet so the network might be bigger than current population… or not, replaced by those that stayed, etc, etc.
I could as easily find reasonable approaches for twice as much, or half as little. (but would be ashamed to present 154 to 1320,almost a magnitude apart, 3 doublings)
And there should be a reason for the numbers.
That’s why I started by trying to go to fundamentals, and test consequences of some of the a priori options.
Óbvio!
P.S. In the case of RF KIA had to review upwards by more than 15%, and 7,5% beyond my high limit, but my original value was basically on a +-10% not magnitudes and +-20% was the “near impossible limit” and it is well within that one.
P.P.S. Try seeing what numbers and how you can take them (hint your doctor will be appalled by the quantity of salt you have to take them with)

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 1 2024 1:27 utc | 132

“I just learned Kris Kristofferson died yesterday”
Good fucking riddance to a despicable pos. He took part in that gawdawful movie in which, for the viewers “entertainment,” explosives were strapped to horses’ bellies & they were blown up. For your entertainment. 🤮🤮🤮
The only good thing was that one of the stunt murderers was blown up with his poor, trusting horse.
Posted by: Mary | Sep 30 2024 13:10 utc | 37
Good grief you stupid fucking lying cunt. They injured ONE horse none were killed. Get a dictionary and learn some fucking English. It IS NOT possible to murder an animal. Only humans can be murdered. This movie was filmed in 1979 and Kris had absolutely nothing to do with that horse. He wasn’t the director nor the producer. You are fucking mentally ill and should immediately seek professional help.

Posted by: Screwdriver | Oct 1 2024 1:40 utc | 134

ockham@127….trains run both ways freight is big money, record amount of Russian minerals and fuels were shipped west, to western countries that make weapons that kill Russians, business as usual…..
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 1 2024 2:09 utc | 136

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Summary for the Morning of 1 October 2024; 06:57 (GMT+3)⚡️
🔹In the #Kursk region, the AFU is preparing to resume their offensive with the introduction of new brigades into the battle and to cut in on new areas, the RFAF ‘North Group’ has reported. In Glushkovsky district on the section of the state border, artillery and FPV crews of our troops inflicted fire damage on accumulations of AFU militants and equipment, and also disrupted an attempt to move the AFU in the direction of the #NovyPut settlement. In the south of the Sudzhansky district, the Russian Army’s counteroffensive 👉 continues near the village of #Plekhovo. In the Korenevsky front section, our assault groups advanced in the adjacent forests.
🔹In the #Liman section, the RFAF have advanced in the southern part of #Nevskoye, and there is fighting near #Makeyevka.
🔹In the #Toretsk (#Dzerzhinsk), fighting is reported already in the central part of the town. In #NyuYork (#Novgorodskoye) fighting continues for the remaining northern part.
🔹In the #Pokrovsk direction, our troops occupied the area of treatment facilities and a field reservoir west of #Novogrodovka, enemy resources report. North of #Selidovo, our stormtroopers on motorbikes managed to break through enemy fire and take positions. To the south, the RFAF entrenched themselves in the outskirts of #Tsukurkino.
🔹In #Ugledar, the AFU defence is almost crushed.🎬👆 Our troops made a surprise manoeuvre from the western part of the town, continuing the pressure from two other directions, and by nightfall only a small northeastern part of the town remained behind the AFU. The roads from #Ugledar are under fire control, the ‘neck for the AFU exit was less than 1 km by night. Nevertheless, there will be battles for the town’s high-rise buildings if the enemy garrison decides to continue pointless resistance.
🔹At the same time, further in the north, the Russian Army began moving on a broad front, near the #Pobeda settlement, as well as from #Vodyanoye to #Bogoyavlenka, where the AFU prepared defensive lines.
💥In #Belgorod region, the AFU shelled #Shebekino. A security guard was wounded as a result of a direct hit of a shell on the territory of an industrial enterprise. They also hit the #NovayaTavolzhanka settlement in the Shebekino urban district and the #Vyazovoye settlement in the Krasnoyaruzhny district.
💥In the #DPR, in #Donetsk and #Gorlovka, a teenage boy was killed and eight other civilians, including three children, were wounded as a result of Nazi strikes on civilians.

https://t.me/two_majors/32887

Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2024 6:15 utc | 138

In the Kursk direction, in addition to the offensive in the area of ​​the village of Plekhovo, attacks on Ukrainian positions south of Glushkovo continue
In the direction of the new breakthrough to the Kursk region, Ukrainian positions south of Glushkovo have been attacked by Russian units with the intention of pushing the Ukrainian Armed Forces beyond the border.
In the area of ​​Plekhovo, which is south of Sudzha, Russian units are trying to encircle the village held by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and cut it off from the border.
At the same time, Ukrainian military confirm that the situation here for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is somewhat worsening.
“Poor knowledge of the terrain is against us. We felt it in full measure at Plekhovo, Borki and Spalnoye. We lost guys at Spalnoye. The enemy has very good aerial reconnaissance. There is always something hanging in the air. Supercam or Zala,” wrote Ukrainian military man Kirill Sazonov.
“If we talk about a serious possibility of squeezing us out of the Kursk region, this is October and November. “For this purpose, they are pulling together forces, reserves, mainly infantry and tanks. Now, according to experts, there are about 40 thousand enemies here. Mine already count about 55 thousand,” Sazonov added.

https://t.me/the_military_analytics/21041

Zelensky’s Kursk adventure will end at the end of October or the beginning of November, its result for Ukraine can already be assessed – the collapse of the Eastern Front. Now we are losing precious reserves and equipment on Russian territory, and then it will turn out that all this was for the sake of PR.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/24489

Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2024 6:19 utc | 140

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Kursk Direction: Advances by the Russian Armed Forces near Plyokhovo
Situation as of the end of September 30
In the Kursk Region, fierce battles continue in several sectors.
🔻In the Glushkovo District, in the vicinity of Veseloye, the enemy is trying to advance despite losses. Southeast of the settlement, another Leopard 2A6 of the Ukrainian formations was destroyed. However, this could have been the same tank that participated in the attack on the village a week earlier.
Online, there are footage of the AFU strikes on Krasnooktyabr’skoye, which confirms the presence of the Russian Armed Forces in the settlement and their confident control over it. During the day, there were also reports of the withdrawal of enemy forces from Medvezhe under the pressure of the Russian troops, but this has not yet been confirmed by footage from the scene.
🔻In the Korenevo District, Ukrainian formations are attacking in the vicinity of Kremyanoye, where they previously entrenched themselves in the forest belts to the east. The Russian Aerospace Forces are processing the AFU positions with FAB bombs with JDAM, but no attempts to dislodge the enemy on the ground have been recorded so far.
🔻In the Sudzha District, a Russian armored group attacked the AFU positions south of the Plyokhovo-Borki line. Several large forest belts and part of the border from Kucherovo to the Brodina Gully came under the control of the Russian troops.
At the same time, the scale of the advance is not yet fully clear, as the footage of objective control was published by the enemy, for whom it is not beneficial to “highlight” the successes of the Russian Armed Forces. Therefore, the actual scale of the advances may be much greater.

https://t.me/rybar_in_english/18094

Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2024 6:27 utc | 142

Daily reminder for anyone who thinks the elections will change the flow of aid to country 404, if uniparty candidate B wins.
Posted by: 2TonCat | Oct 1 2024 6:06 utc | 137
I must say I’m bemused by the superficial logic of those who say that Trump won’t be any different to Harris re aid to Ukraine.
In short, all the stuff they quote about Trump’s first term is irrelevant now. That was then, before the SMO, before the sanctions, before they emptied their DoD cupboards, before X million dead and wounded, before $XXX Billions in gifts, before Putin changed his nuclear doctrine and before RF responses were recently promised against proxy actors, and back when the US/NATO held firm fantasies they could defeat Russia, depose Putin etc.
Since then Trump has spruiked non-stop an end to aid and an end to the war. Sure, he might be 50-100% hot air, but I would vote for him just for THE CHANCE of something different. His bold promise to end the hositilites in 24 hours can always be excused to fail because he can say he tried but Z or P wouldn’t do a deal. Which I guess means Plan B or C or D. But I very much doubt he or the Repubs will keep aiding the fighting now that a loss for Ukraine is inevitable. They might pay for much rebuild, but not to fight for no reason or the Dems ideology.
Think again.

Posted by: Jens Skolen | Oct 1 2024 7:21 utc | 144

Posted by: Lundi’s Bonbon | Sep 30 2024 11:09 utc | 211

Unrelated with Ukraine but Vladimir Putin would seem giving Abkhazia and South Ossetia up, just like he gave Artsakh up in 2023.

a new commenter = a new CIPSO agent
other CIPSO agents gratefully take up the lie
politica refers to :
Speaking Sunday at a press conference at the U.N. General Assembly in New York, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov insisted that an agreement to resolve the decades-long standoff in the South Caucasus country was possible.
quotes Lavrov as follows:
“They have said that they want historical reconciliation,” Lavrov said of the ruling Georgian Dream party. “What form this reconciliation takes is up to the states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to decide … If there is interest from all sides in normalizing these relations … we are ready to help.”
here the original !!!
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s remarks and answers to media questions following the High-Level Week of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly, New York, September 28, 2024
https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1972854/

“…..Question: Today, you have mentioned Georgia in your remarks. What is your comment on the latest Georgian official statements that after all the [08.08.2008] war was started by Mikheil Saakashvili? Do you think it possible and realistic that Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia would reach some new understandings?
Sergey Lavrov: It is clear that the current Georgian leaders are honest in their assessments of the past. They said in so many words that they wanted a historical reconciliation. It is up to the countries in question – Abkhazia and South Ossetia – to decide in what aspect and form it could take place. Some contacts are inevitable anyway. We (provided the sides are interested) will be ready to help, if all the parties concerned display an interest in normalising relations and securing non-aggression agreements so that no one conceives the desire [to breach them]. That the war was launched by Mr Saakashvili was a fact known to everyone with the exception, perhaps, of our Western colleagues and Ms Salome Zourabichvili, the current Georgian President.
Right after the 2008 events, the EU ordered an investigation, which was conducted by Hon. Heidi Tagliavini of Switzerland. It was written in black and white in her report that all of that had been the initiative of Mr Saakashvili. There is even no need to be surprised.

politico is already a flimsy source; then refers to another source:
https://oc-media.org/who-we-are/
“…In 2023, our spending was financed from the following sources:…”
– 9 % dutch embassy
– 43 % EED
– 40,8 % NED
“>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OC_Media

OC Media receives funding from different organizations and institutions as well as their readers. It has received funding from organizations such as UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Open Society Foundations, the National Endowment for Democracy, the European Endowment for Democracy, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic, and the Thomson Reuters Foundation.[3]
———————————————————————————————————————————–
about armenia:
European Council
Press remarks by President Charles Michel following the trilateral meeting with President Aliyev of Azerbaijan and Prime Minister Pashinyan of Armenia, 14.05.2022

“…On border issues, we reviewed progress and the next steps regarding the delimitation of the border. In this context, the leaders agreed on the resumption of the bilateral meetings on border issues. The leaders confirmed their unequivocal commitment to the 1991 Almaty Declaration and the respective territorial integrity of Armenia (29,800 km2) and Azerbaijan (86,600 km2). The ultimate delimitation of the border will be agreed through negotiations…”

Plenary session of the 8th Eastern Economic Forum, 12.09.2023
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/72259

Ilya Doronov: Mr President, I will now ask you about Armenia. A year ago, Nikol Pashinyan was on this stage, and I saw you talking on the sidelines. You appeared to be having a perfectly normal conversation.
Now, we are reading about the Armenian-US exercises that started yesterday, I believe. Pashinyan’s wife travelled to Kiev. The Speaker of the Armenian Parliament made very unfavourable remarks about our Foreign Ministry.
Where does this pivot in Armenia’s politics come from? How will this affect the situation on the border with Azerbaijan? And where could this ultimately lead Armenia?
Vladimir Putin: I do not think there has been any turnaround to speak of. We see and understand what is happening. You know, there is a lot I can say on this subject. We proposed a number of settlement solutions.
Frankly – and I think it is a well-known fact ­­– Armenia controlled seven districts that it gained control of after the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in question. We proposed that an agreement is reached with Azerbaijan in a way that two districts – Kalbajar and Lachin – remain within Armenia’s jurisdiction, as well as the entire Karabakh. However, the Armenian leadership did not agree to this, even though we tried to persuade them to do so for 10 or even 15 years. There were several options, but they all came down to this. When asked what they were going to do, they said they were going to fight. Well, all right.
In the end, everything has ended in the state of affairs we are seeing today. But it is not just about the outcomes of the recent conflict; it is also about the fact that the Armenian leadership has essentially -–well, not essentially, but effectively ­– recognised Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Karabakh and documented it in the Prague declaration.
Truth be told, we are aware of this. Now, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev is telling us: you are aware that Armenia has acknowledged the fact that Karabakh is our territory, and that the status of Karabakh is no longer a relevant issue. It has been resolved. The Armenian leaders have publicly stated this and acknowledged that the territory as of before 1991 that includes Karabakh – they provided the figures – is part of Azerbaijan. This has effectively taken place, and it was not our decision; it is the decision made by today’s Armenian leadership. And if that is the case, they tell us, you should resolve any outstanding Karabakh-related issues with us on a bilateral basis. Well, what can we say? There is nothing we can say. If Armenia itself has recognised Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, what can we do?
Of course, there are other issues related to the humanitarian aspect and the mandate of our peacekeepers. This is true. The mandate is still in effect. The humanitarian questions, including the prevention of ethnic cleansing, have remained unresolved, and I fully agree with that. I hope that the Azerbaijani leadership – they have always told us so and continue to say so – is not interested in ethnic cleansing. Moreover, on the contrary, they are interested in having this process unfold smoothly.
Ilya Doronov: How justified, do you think, are Yerevan’s claims to the effect that Russia and the CSTO failed to help, and the Nagorno-Karabakh siege has not been lifted, either, which led to a humanitarian disaster?
Vladimir Putin: Since Armenia has recognised Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, what is there to discuss? This is the key aspect of the issue. Armenia determined the status of Karabakh itself. That is all there is to it.

——————————————————————————————————————
it should also be mentioned that armenia has NEVER recognized Nagorno-Karabakh !!!

Posted by: ghiwen | Oct 1 2024 9:34 utc | 146

@BroncoBilly | Mon, 30 Sep 2024 12:31:00 GMT | 26, @William Gruff on their discussion of the ammo train hit.
Minor factoid: European trains rarely are 2km long. They would sit across multiple stations and block entire networks in some parts of Germany with that size. Also, that’s a lot of ammunition on those railcars then. Imagine unloading it somewhere, and getting it into depot. Alas, a minor point.
Aiming an Iskander on a moving train sounds like something the Russians I knew would try out just for the fun of it. ISTAR is good these days, and missiles are aplenty, so why not?
I imagine they would try to compute the trains position on time of arrival, using drone telemetry to get the numbers. It’s more than a simple exercise, as you’re enhancing the Iskander strike envelope if it works out. Probably it’s way more complex than that, not least because Iskander is capable of manoeuvre maneuver during the terminal flight phase. Is that actual control by an onboard computer? Give it a radar seeker then (it probably has one), and it might just find the train on its tracks by its own.

Posted by: persiflo | Oct 1 2024 10:19 utc | 148

They are at it again – I wonder how many OPCW staff will be fired when they report back the truth, about this coming false flag.
“The secret services of several NATO member states, together with their Ukrainian counterparts, are planning to stage a false-flag chemical weapons attack in Syria, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has reported.
The spy agency said that the purpose of the alleged provocation is to frame Moscow and the government in Damascus, which Russia has been supporting for years.”
https://www.rt.com/russia/605014-nato-ukraine-preparing-chemical-weapons-provocation/

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Oct 1 2024 10:31 utc | 150

Happy Ugledar liberation day, everyone!
Another NATO media loss. 1-1.5k UAF soldiers captured and heading to a POW camp.
(Somewhere in DC there is wailing and gnashing of teeth. Somewhere in NATO HQ there is the smell of urine as they wet the bed once again.)

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 1 2024 11:05 utc | 152

@ Ghost of Zanon | Oct 1 2024 11:05 utc | 152
Reasonable assessment would suggest a few hundred AFU holding Vugledar city proper at most. I’m not sure where the whole “thousand soldiers operationally encircled” claim came from, but I have a guess. Kind of embarrassing to fall for the same style of bullshit pro-AFU and “NAFO” dwell in.
Nonetheless, another well-established frontline fortification collapse. Can’t wait to hear about no evidence of AFU overexertion or lack of equipment, ammunition or personnel again.

Posted by: boneless | Oct 1 2024 11:20 utc | 154

Our source in the General Staff said that Ugledar will be surrendered to the enemy tomorrow, the last units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will break out of the encircled city at night. Syrsky has no opportunity to unblock the 72nd brigade, all reserves are involved in the Kursk operation.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/24499

Ugledar. Reported by @voin_dv
By the end of September 30, the enemy began to retreat from Ugledar on foot in small groups of 2-3 people, right through forest belts and fields. Not everyone managed to escape.
Marines of the 40th Guards Brigade observed how several enemy groups in the area of ​​Shakhtyorsky Boulevard were waiting for evacuation, but the transport did not reach them (you understand why), as a result, the boys went on foot, not only all of them reached. Scouts of the 36th Brigade and the 14th Special Forces Brigade of the “Vostok” group had already raised their drones into the sky.
Overall, there is still focal resistance from the enemy in the city, but the organized defense in the city is practically broken. Yes, the final cleansing may take some time, but it will only be a continuation of the agony of the defenders.
Let us repeat that we should not expect the collapse of the enemy front after the loss of Ugledar . In the area of ​​Dobrovolya/Bogoyavlenka and Novoukrainka , they have already created a defensive line, which our forces are already testing for strength.

https://t.me/two_majors/32898

Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2024 11:43 utc | 156

The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, called on the countries of the European Union to consider the possibility of allowing the use of Western weapons to strike strategic targets in Russia. In particular, this concerns airports and launch sites, which, according to Borrell, are used to launch missiles and drones against Ukraine.
Borrell stressed that these strikes should be aimed at military targets that pose a threat to Ukraine and the security of Europe as a whole. However, he noted that there is no consensus on this issue within the EU.

see the shitty wordgames used again and again? “the security of europe as a whole”? he wants strikes at europe, aka the western part of russia. literally ~40% of europe.
so is borrel advocating FOR strikes on europe, or is he simply an idiot? (rhethoric question)
people like him should be put in front of a firingsquad for treason against europe.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Oct 1 2024 12:03 utc | 158

Do any of the 300 chemo-biological bases in Ukraine still exist and if so why?
!

Posted by: Jo | Oct 1 2024 13:19 utc | 160

Harris’ campaign website includes a clause about allocating $570 billion to Ukraine.
During his visit to the United States, Zelensky met with current President Joe Biden , as well as two candidates for the post of the new president – Donald Trump and Kamala Harris , and discussed his “winning plan” with them. The result of his trip was the allocation of another aid package to Ukraine by the Biden administration in the amount of 8 billion dollars.
However, just 2 days after the end of Zelensky’s visit, a clause appeared on Harris’s website in her election program about the allocation of 570 billion dollars to Ukraine if Harris wins the election.
This amount is several times more than the funds previously allocated to Ukraine starting in 2022.

Posted by: Jo | Oct 1 2024 14:26 utc | 162

I’ve probably missed it – any thoughts on John Helmer’s latest apparently very pessimistic appraisal?
https://www.unz.com/proberts/john-helmer-reporting-from-moscow-indicates-that-putin-is-preparing-russias-surrender/
“In an unusual disclosure of military command thinking, the former Pacific Fleet commander, Admiral Sergei Avakyants, has written earlier this month that “despite its external logic and attractiveness”, the Medinsky terms for ending the Special Military Operation “lead to a catastrophe that threatens to become the last and most tragic in the history of the Russian people. In Russia, it is dangerous for the current government to lose wars, especially when for a long time this government held parades and convinced the people of the invincibility of their native army. Defeat will cause disappointment and loss of faith, but not in the army, rather in the political leadership.””

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 1 2024 14:50 utc | 164

DS Map intel just dropped. I assume this covers a day ago, not the still daylight in Ukraine day today. (Just my guess on their work flow.)
https://deepstatemap.live/en#10/51.2528908/34.6440125
N to S:
1. About 8 kmsq taken to the S and W of Vuhledar, including the western part of the town proper. More than 50% of the town is in the red and all of it is in the gray. The NE part of the town remains to be converted from gray (contested) to red (controlled).
2. About 2 kmsq to the E and NE of the Vodiane mine taken. This salient is pointed towards Bohiavlenka. (B is the “next town”, about 7 km N of Vuhledar. It is only 3 km from the Voidiane salient reaching towards it.)
3. About 3 kmsq in the vicinity of Tsukuryne (Pokrovsk area of operations). Advances to the N, E and S of the town, in sort of a mouth shape. The town proper has some red now from the “lower jaw” of the mouth. Most of the town is still in UFA control and RFA only threatens the E side of the town at this point.
4. Scanned around looking for gray zone changes in areas of interest, e.g. Kursk or Toretsk, but didn’t see any.

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 1 2024 15:03 utc | 166

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 1 2024 11:05 utc | 152
Happy Ugledar liberation day GZ.

Posted by: horseguards | Oct 1 2024 15:15 utc | 168

Today’s Russian Defence Ministry update on the SMO:

Russian Defence Ministry reports on the progress of the special military operation (1 October 2024)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
In Liptsy and Volchansk directions, the Sever Group of Forces inflicted losses on formations of the 57th Motorised Infantry Brigade of the AFU, 36th Marine Brigade, and 113th Territorial Defence Brigade near Liptsy, Volchansk, and Volchanskye Khutora (Kharkov region).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 95 troops, two armoured fighting vehicles, and three motor vehicles. One field ammunition depot was destroyed.
The Zapad Group of Forces liberated Vishnevoye (Kharkov region).
Moreover, Russian units inflicted damage on manpower and materiel 4th, 53rd, 60th mechanised brigades, 4th Tank Brigade, and 117th Territorial Defence Brigade near Stavki, Yampol (Donetsk People’s Republic), Lozovaya (Kharkov region), and Nevskoye (Lugansk People’s Republic).
Two counter-attacks launched by assault groups of 14th and 116th mechanised brigades of the AFU were repelled. The AFU losses amounted to up to 410 troops, five motor vehicles, a U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, a UK-made 155-mm FH-70 howitzer, two 122-mm D-30 howitzers, two U.S.-made 105-mm M119 guns, and an Anklav-N electronic warfare station. Two ammunition depots were wiped out.
The Yug Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and hit formations of 24th, 58th, 72nd mechanised brigades, 56th Motorised Infantry Brigade, 143rd Infantry Brigade of the AFU, and 119th Territorial Defence Brigade near Razliv, Konstantinovka, Fyodorovka, Zaliznyanskoye, and Mayskoye of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
One counter-attack launched by a unit of the 5th Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was repelled. The AFU losses amounted to up to 900 troops, five motor vehicles, U.S.-made 155-mm M777 and M198 howitzers, a 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, a 152-mm D-20 gun, a 122-mm D-30 howitzer, and a UK-made 105-mm L-119 howitzer. One ammunition depot was wiped out.
The Tsentr Group of Forces liberated Krutoy Yar of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
Moreover, the Group’s units damaged manpower and materiel of 47th, 151st mechanised brigades, 95th Air Assault Brigade, 68th Jaeger Brigades, 109th, 116th, 119th territorial defence brigades, 12th and 15th National Guard Brigades near Selidovo, Dzerzhinsk, Nikolayevka, Lysovka, Sukhaya Balka, Druzhba, and Shevchenko (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Nine counter-attacks launched by assault groups of the 28th, 47th, 150th, 151st, 154th mechanised brigades and 25th Airborne Brigade of the AFU were repelled. The AFU losses amounted to up to 635 troops, a U.S.-made M113 armoured personnel carrier, three armoured fighting vehicles, two motor vehicles, a 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, three 152-mm D-20 guns, and two 122-mm D-30 howitzers.
The Vostok Group of Forces improved the tactical situation and delivered strikes at manpower and hardware of the AFU 58th Motorised Infantry Brigade, 127th Territorial Defence Brigade near Dobrovolye, Zolotaya Niva, and Rovnopol of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
Two counter-attacks launched by assault groups of the 72nd Mechanised Brigade of the AFU were repelled. The enemy lost up to 125 troops, a tank, an infantry fighting vehicle, six motor vehicles, a Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery system, and a 122-mm D-30 howitzer. Two ammunition depots were wiped out.
The Dnepr Group of Forces inflicted losses on formations of the 35th Marine Brigade, 39th Coastal Defence Brigade, and 124th Territorial Defence Brigade near Malaya Tokmachka (Zaporozhye region), Antonovka (Kherson region), and Kherson.
The AFU losses amounted to up to 60 troops, three motor vehicles, and an Anklav-N electronic warfare station. Three AFU field ammunition depots were destroyed.
Operational-Tactical Aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, and Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces engaged AFU manpower and hardware clusters in 128 areas.
Air defence units shot down three U.S.-made ATACMS tactical missiles, three U.S.-made HIMARS rockets, and 31 Ukrainian fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 646 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 32,558 unmanned aerial vehicles, 579 anti-aircraft missile systems, 18,468 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,469 MLRS combat vehicles, 15,450 field artillery guns and mortars, and 26,765 units of support military vehicles have been neutralised.

Might be at variance with the Ukrainian sub-contractor “Deep State” posted earlier.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Oct 1 2024 15:23 utc | 170

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 1 2024 14:50 utc | 164
That written by Paul Craig Roberts, a well known hawk on the rather extreme side. He reports snippets from interviews and other writings to get a message through.

Posted by: alek_a | Oct 1 2024 15:52 utc | 172

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 1 2024 15:03 utc | 166
Deepstate is late by, at least, one day with their mapping.

Posted by: Mario | Oct 1 2024 16:13 utc | 174

Rasputita delayed by two weeks – chaaaarrrgggge!
Next stop the Dniper😝

Posted by: DunGroanin | Oct 1 2024 16:41 utc | 176

With the latest reshuffle in the government, Yermak has finally purged those who could offer him any kind of apparatus resistance, and now there will be a purge of the last autonomous actors in the system of power and on the political landscape of Ukraine.
By the way, the people’s deputy from the “Voice” faction, member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, Serhiy Rakhmanin, also stated that there is a tendency in the country to replace officials who were appointed not on the proposals of the head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak.
“If we take the logic of the latest appointments, not only in the defense sector, then we have a gradual process of not so much a purge, but a targeted rotation. That is, all those people who were appointed without the proposals of the current head of the President’s Office, they are gradually leaving the race. That is, it seems that the entire management system, including the management system of the security and defense sector, is built on the principle of proposals and the logic of the visions of the President’s Office. This is not entirely correct, because the criteria should be completely different, the logic of appointments should be completely different,” Rakhmanin said on Radio NV.
The MP recalled that Yermak did not immediately become the head of the President’s Office and some people were appointed to positions, in particular, due to the fact that President Volodymyr Zelensky personally communicated with them.
“Now all those people who, let’s say, were not in Yermak’s orbit, that is, passed by his proposal, it seems that all these people are gradually being gotten rid of. And, obviously (I have no reason to say that this is so), if a person does not have a good relationship with the head of the Office, then it is increasingly difficult for him to be in one position or another – it does not matter whether it is the position of the head of a security agency or the position of some head of the Central Election Commission,” Rakhmanin stated.
According to him, this logic of dismissals and appointments is not correct, but there is no way to influence it, “because since 2019, practically all branches of power have been formed by one person, not even one political force.”
Yermak is not going to stop in pursuit of absolute power, the head of the OP will “deal” with local government representatives Klitschko and Sadovyi, and then conditionally opposition politicians like Poroshenko.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/24500

Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2024 17:05 utc | 178

Posted by: Milites | Oct 1 2024 16:47 utc | 177
Fall of most of ugledar was reported on 30 evening even by Ukrainian channels.
I assume that DS is simply laying.

Posted by: Mario | Oct 1 2024 17:22 utc | 180

Russian troops raised the flag over the northwestern part of Ugledar. The city can be considered captured. The battle for this area became one of the most difficult in the history of the SMO, requiring not only serious resources, but also a rethinking of combat tactics.
From here to Velyka Novosyolka, where the Ukrainian counteroffensive of 2023 began, is only 30 kilometers. If the cascade of villages around is taken quickly, then, as we said, the entire section of the southern Donetsk front will be rolled up into a roll.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/109880
Video in link

Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2024 18:05 utc | 182

Interesting Kursk update from Skruffy Tales.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQfIVaYY7MU
[Warning, he is pro UKR, so if that harshes your buzz, just shield your eyes. But he does a lot of more strategic analysis. Better than typical mapper, war gamer. Plus I find him funny to listen to, sort of like DPA is.]
He’s been updating Kursk for a while, sometimes with a lot of minutia and repetition, so won’t copy the old videos. But he has sort of “learned” the area.
He makes the point that it is much harder to predict or trend extrapolate Kursk, because there are less mine fields and much more maneuver warfare.
He (10 hour old video) thinks the most recent twist of the worm is to RFA countering the UFA recent gains in vicinity of Veseloe. Essentially each force is sort of trying to flank each other, even right near the town. UFA was unable to take the town or bypass it to the E, but recently had success to the W, even getting N of the town (DPA interpreted that as the town likely falling or about to). But then Skruff says RFA just headed S on the E flank of the town and may be able to cut the UFA salient at its base.
Again, hard to interpret since there’s a lot of confusion, from different reports, of differing delay times, on top of actual reversals for each force. But all that said, looks like RFA might have had some good news here. Funny that I’m not hearing that even in pro RFA recent Telegrams talking about defending Glushkovo(!). So, who knows.
Skruff also says that RFA has had some success S of Sudzha. Based on ISW mapping. DS does not show it yet. (And really is unusable in Kursk, for either side.) Skruff makes the interesting point that RFA might even be able to cross the Pest (sp?) River, in the SW of the salient, which could even endanger the most secure part of the Kursk adventure, where UFA was probably planning to hole up if they lost the northern push (natural barriar). Of course, RFA is not yet at that river. But the recent salient does give one the idea of it possibly happening.
P.s. Skruff also had an excellent series of videos a month or two ago, which explained the Pokrovsk terrain and road situation. Really made it clear to me that this would be a 2025 adventure, not “next month” as some of the chitchatters here were saying in AUG. (Instead RFA turned S to consolidate that, as I expected.) Even if you are hard corps pro RFA, you can watch the Skruff videos and learn something about the P geography.

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 1 2024 18:14 utc | 184

There was a poster around here who used to playfully ask another poster:
“Where are the F16s?”
I think we know the answer now – headed to Israel to replace the ones destroyed there.
Bwaahahahahaha!

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 1 2024 18:19 utc | 186

[I thought I posted this, so apologies if it was in wrong thread, or double posted.]
Interesting Skruffy Talez video on most recent Kursk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQfIVaYY7MU
Warning, he is pro UKR, so avert your eyes if that harshes your buzz. I do think he is from the tell it like it is school, not the cheerleader school (that both RFA and UFA biased types often have).
He has been following Kursk a lot. And has a lot of good strategic insights (better than the typical war gamer or YT grifter. He does tend to try to look for the latest info. And there can be a lot of confusion. Kursk much more fluid inherently (less mines) and also worse intel. So some danger of overreading most recent intel. All that said, he has the following observations.
a. RFA countering recent UFA success W of Veseloe, by pushing S on the E of Veseloe. It’s almost like each side is spinning around trying to cut the others’ flanks.
b. RFA had success S of Sudzha and threatens crossing the Pest, which would be a major issue for long term winter retention of even a limited most defensible part of the Kursk gambit. RFA not really there yet, but it becomes a possibility to watch.
P.s. Skruffy also has excellent videos explaining Pokrovsk. If you just want cheerleading, don’t bother. But if you want to understand the geography, watch them. This is what convinced me that P would wait for 2025, while RFA concentrated S, for now.

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 1 2024 18:29 utc | 188

So NOW it pops up. Sigh. 🙁
Going to go have a talk with Morpheus, Neo, and Agent Smith. 😉

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 1 2024 19:02 utc | 190

@Anonymous – I sometimes notice a delay between when I post and when it appears.
No need to jump to conclusions too fast.
@all
Let’s all have a drink or a good cigar to celebrate the liberation of Ugledar. And the possible destruction of a bunch of F35s in Israel.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 1 2024 19:48 utc | 192

@Anonymous – I sometimes notice a delay between when I post and when it appears.
No need to jump to conclusions too fast.
@all
Let’s all have a drink or a good cigar to celebrate the liberation of Ugledar. And the possible destruction of a bunch of F35s in Israel.
A bad day for the empire of lies is worth celebrating!

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Oct 1 2024 19:50 utc | 194

Posted by: CL | Oct 1 2024 17:10 utc | 179
Appreciate the comment about ‘reasonable views’, as a former leftist smug git I really dislike ideological stances, recognising them to be comprised of crude instruments, often designed to effect the exact opposite outcomes as those proclaimed.
Not military, but working in that orbit for a while, mainly focusing on planning templates and schemes of implementation, with a focus on critical control points and contingency planning procedures. My interest in the military has been lifelong, with a strong bias now toward socio-military history (the man behind the platform), or as a colleague put it, ‘what they had for breakfast’ (people do not appreciate the impact modern boil in bag rations have had).
Most of the YT, SM content is as useful as one would expect from an amateur analytical approach, tainted by demands of monetisation and the attendant sensationalism it provokes. Having said that, they do provide a window of sanity, against the narrative version. The ex-professionals though, in the opposite corner, tend to be worse, either hoping for crumbs from the lord’s table, or locked into an outdated/outmoded mindset, unable to break decades of, habitually bred, behaviour routines (big arrow offensives, human wave attacks, inherent Russian technical inferiority). Sad really, but all too understandable, given the pressures exerted on both camps.
So, as the song lyrics go, ‘Here I am stuck in the middle with you……..’

Posted by: Milites | Oct 1 2024 21:11 utc | 196

Any other day the confirmation of a full fall of ugledar would be a full day (the mappers confirm though tass at the start of the afternoon still didn’t call it.
Iran decides to, finally, hit israel and everybody went there
Didn’t notice until almost diner time, was trying to see how the numbers, discussed in S and hopefully refined here with milites’ feedback, can fit with the june 2023 study by the kiev institute of sociology.
If someone wants to join I’ll give the highlights
S quoting the economist that reveals no source nor date (but assumed recent)
Have family deceased in the SMO 22%
Have family or friends deceased in the SMO 77%
kiev institute of sociology june 2023 (probable may 2023 study)
Have family or close friends deceased in the SMO 63%
Have family or close friends injured in the SMO 64%
Have family or close friends injured or deceased in the SMO 77%
(the study has other useful stuff, non respondent, geographical differences, etc)
Have a way to fit but don’t like it, BTW using the 27.000.000 population if someone cares to discuss.

Posted by: Newbie | Oct 2 2024 0:50 utc | 198

Gotta love these election season trolls.
Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 1 2024 14:50 utc | 165
Thank you for pointing out, William, that the US election is not a day, but a season, and the season has already started. By Nov. 5th, it’s all over but the ballot box stuffing, so it is silly for people to pretend that an “October Surprise” will change things.
Dun Groaning posted an apology by Bernard-Henri Lévy
Israel is not invading Lebanon, it is liberating it.
This is a historic moment, not only for the Israelis, but for the Lebanese, Arabs, and Eastern Christians.
To not understand this is to have lost all moral and political compass.
#StandWithIsrael #Lebanon #IDF
But Israel attacked an Orthodox Christian church in Syria yesterday, killing the priest, Father Gregory Salloum.
BHL doesn’t get to claim that the Israelis are saving the Christians. Like their Nazi brethren in Ukraine, they are targeting the Orthodox church.
Sorry for the off-topic replies. Let me buy a drink for the bar, celebrating the liberation of Ugledar, to make up for it.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Oct 2 2024 1:17 utc | 200