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Ukraine – U.S. ‘Experts’ Throw The Towel
Michael Kofman and Rob Lee are U.S. experts who have visited the Ukrainian front-lines several times to then write positive hopeful pieces, in the sense of the West, about the conflict.
Their latest longer piece, published in Foreign Affairs, deviates from their older ones.
Ukraine’s Gamble
The Risks and Rewards of the Offensive Into Russia’s Kursk Region
They describe the Ukrainian incursion into the Russian Kursk oblast and the resulting lack of troops on the eastern Donbas front at some length.
They seem, like many others, not to be sure what it is all about. Neither Ukraine nor the countries that supports it seem to have any theory of victory.
Determining what this operation says about Ukraine’s overall strategy and the implications it has for the broader war effort is essential. In some ways, the offensive raises more questions than answers.
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For much of 2024, the West has been supporting a Ukrainian strike campaign in Crimea without a good explanation for what was meant to follow. It was serviceable as an end onto itself, degrading Russian air defense and support infrastructure. But that campaign now seems disconnected from Ukraine’s efforts in Kursk and its broader drone strike campaign against economic infrastructure in Russia. A series of disparate efforts do not a strategy make.
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Since 2023, Washington has been out of ideas for how to successfully end the war on terms favorable to Ukraine. Kyiv, meanwhile, has been focused on stabilizing the frontline, but equally worried about the prevailing gloomy narrative and the sense that Ukraine is losing the war. The Kursk operation helps address the latter at the risk of doing damage to the former. Whether or not Kursk succeeds, at least it is not an attempt to refight the failed 2023 offensive, a set piece battle in which Ukraine held no decisive advantages. That said, Kyiv’s present theory of success remains unclear.
Kofman and Lee are unhappy:
Holding Kursk as a bargaining chip, expanding strikes, and economic pressure on Russia could significantly strengthen Ukraine’s hand, assuming Ukraine can also hold the line, exhaust Russia’s offensive potential, and withstand Russia’s strike campaign this winter. However it ends, the Kursk offensive needs to provide the impetus for Ukraine and its partners to get on the same page—and shake off the current drift.
"Assuming Ukraine can also …" carries a way too much weight in their closing words.
That becomes obvious when one sees news items like this:
The 152nd Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Ground Forces has been reorganized into a jager brigade, as announced on the brigade’s official social media channels.
A jager brigade is light infantry. It is specialized in fighting in woods and marshes. It has no armored means. It has no tanks, no infantry fighting vehicles and no heavy artillery. All of what the 152nd once had as a mechanized units has been wasted in the incursion of Kursk.
Ukraine can not sustain either of the three tasks Kofman and Lee are "assuming" it can.
The Donbas line is breaking, Russia's offensive potential is still much larger than anything we have yet seen and Ukraine has no means to defend against or prevent mass missiles strikes against its infrastructure and other military targets.
The Kursk incursion was a political theater piece designed to have a short term propaganda effect. It was paid for with the lives of Ukrainian soldiers. A way too height price for little effect. The mass of Ukrainian material that was destroyed in the campaign means that Ukraine has now thrown away any future attack potential its army still had.
Kofman and Lee know this. But they are still too timid to say so.
Still – its sounds like they have given up on it.
Russians have now opened up the Ugledar front, looks like two pincers to surround the town before taking it. That’s the hinge that breaks open the whole south east of the Donetsk front. Another hole created for the Ukrainians to have to stick a finger in.
Still grinding down in Toretsk around the prison, east toward Pokrovsk and south toward Kurakhove. And the Russians took Vyimka which is 4km to the south west of Siversk – another hole requiring a finger. All the while, Ukraine doubling down on its abject failure south of Kursk – no new fingers available in the south.
Ukrainian losses for September 2nd, as reported by the Russian defence ministry, including Kursk:
– Russia Kursk front: 350 troops, 1 IFV, 1 APC, 12 LAC/HMV, 12 motor vehicles, 6 artillery pieces, 1 counter-battery system
– Sever Group (Kharkov): 85 troops, 3 motor vehicles, 3 artillery pieces.
– Zapad Group (Luhansk area): 430 troops, 2 LAV/HMV, 6 motor vehicles, 6 artillery pieces, 1 counter-battery system.
– Yug Group (Donetsk north): 520 troops, 4 motor vehicles, 7 artillery pieces, 1 EW system.
– Tsetr Group (Donetsk south): 475 troops, 1 LAV/ HMV, 3 motor vehicles, 2 artillery pieces.
– Vostok Group (southern front): 110 troops, 1 APC, 1 artillery piece.
– Dnepr Group: 70 troops, 3 motor vehicles, 1 EW system.
In total: 2,140 troops (about 2,500 to 3,000 with undercounting: 75,000 to 90,000 a month). Above average.
1 IFV, 2 APC, 15 HMV/Light Armoured Vehicle, 31 motor vehicles. Further evidence of the transformation of the Ukrainians to an infantry using HMV/light armoured vehicles, “technicals” (pickup trucks with mounted weapons), and civilian vehicles for mobility.
25 artillery pieces, about average, at a rate of about 750 a month. 2 counter-battery system and 2 EW systems. These are still catastrophic daily loss levels of such valuable systems.
Total losses so far for the Ukrainians in the Kursk front have been 8,900 troops, 80 tanks, 38 IFV, 70 APC, 549 LAV/HMV, 261 motor vehicles, 65 artillery pieces, 19 MLRS, 14 EW systems, 7 counter-battery systems
In addition, the Russians have become adept at shooting down and jamming Ukrainian (i.e. Western manufactured) guided bombs, missiles, rockets and the mostly locally-made drones. It has been noted in the Pokrovsk area that Russian drones seem to be able to operate with little EW interference. The rate at which the Russians are destroying the Ukrainians EW systems is extremely high.
Posted by: Roger | Sep 2 2024 18:21 utc | 51
Aus Telegram
🇺🇦 „Dieser Svitan ist kaputt, bringen Sie den nächsten“ 🤷♂️
“Der ‚sprechende Kopf‘ der Monosendung, Oberst der Reserve der AFU, Militärexperte Roman Switan, scheint ein ‚Wahrheitsserum‘ zu sich genommen zu haben und sagte auf Kanal 24, dass Zelenskys Team Pokrowsk und das Land ‚in eine Kolonie, eine Strafzelle und ein Konzentrationslager für absolut alle Menschen‘ verwandelt hat, aus dem es unmöglich ist, zu gehen. Und er forderte einen Wechsel in der Exekutive!
Auf die Frage des Moderators, warum eine 40.000-Einwohner-Stadt mit 2.000 Kindern, 10 Kilometer von der Front entfernt, versucht, ein friedliches Leben zu führen, während die lokale Regierung ankündigt, dass die Banken dort ab Montag nicht mehr arbeiten werden, sagte Switan:
✅ in den Städten an der Front – es ist unmöglich zu gehen, es ist eine schreckliche Situation dort, wo die Ukrainer lieber auf die Ankunft der russischen Armee warten, als durch die TCC mobilisiert zu werden;
✅ Militärkommissionen unter der Leitung von Umerov haben eine Reihe von Straßensperren beim Verlassen von Siedlungen (vor allem Pokrovsk) organisiert. Gleichzeitig werden Männer vorgeladen, selbst wenn sie ihre Kinder, ihre Familien und ältere Verwandte an die Front bringen. Mit anderen Worten, eine normale Evakuierung der Zivilbevölkerung ist unmöglich; die Menschen haben Angst, ohne das Familienoberhaupt zurückgelassen zu werden;
✅ Menschen, die obdachlos sind, können nirgendwo hin evakuiert werden, sie haben kein Geld, und Landsleute in anderen Städten haben die Preise für Mietwohnungen erhöht;
✅ der Staat hilft in keiner Weise, er schafft ein solches Bestrafungszentrum, ein Konzentrationslager, aus dem es unmöglich ist, die Stadt zu verlassen; die Polizei und die TCC-Beamten versuchen, beim Verlassen der Stadt Geld zu verdienen, es gibt „eine weitere Bestechung von Menschen mit einer großen Bestechung“;
✅ Rekrutierern teilen mit dem Verteidigungsministerium, Umerov braucht etwas, um seine Familie in den USA zu unterstützen;
✅ die Bewohner des Donbass werden von den nicht-ukrainischen Behörden vernichtet, ihre Aufgabe ist es, die Gebiete zu übergeben, Geld von den Bewohnern einzutreiben und mit Pässen anderer Länder zu fliehen. Viele der Machthaber haben Pässe anderer Länder, und dann wird sich herausstellen, dass ein Politiker mit einem israelischen Pass seit 5 Jahren eine pro-israelische Politik verfolgt (Svitanas Hinweis ist offensichtlich);
✅ deshalb treibt die Regierung das Gesetz über die mehrfache Staatsbürgerschaft voran;
✅ Die Ukrainer können nicht-ukrainische Behörden wechseln – aber die Exekutive, nicht die Politik – argumentiert Svitan. Die Macht der Umerovs, Yermakovs, Poslits und des Rests – es ist an der Zeit, dass das Volk den Wechsel der befleckten und korrupten Exekutive mit Pässen anderer Länder einleitet. Sie arbeiten nicht für die Ukraine, sie haben sich bereits „überdient“. Es ist an der Zeit, sie durch professionelle, fachlich qualifizierte Personen, vorzugsweise aus dem Militär, zu ersetzen“, sagte der Experte.
Es sind noch 3, 2, 1 Sekunden übrig, bevor der SBU kommt…
https://t.me/ZeRada1/21300
Posted by: Diego | Sep 2 2024 20:53 utc | 91
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