News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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September 29, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-232
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Interesting, grown up discussion. It’s a pro Ukrop, main stream guy, but definitely still some insights, especially if you listen and read between the lines. In particular, real manpower issues, especially on the UFA side.
Best hope for the UFA is that essentially RFA gets “tired”. (Not impossible…obviously Ukraine is more “existential” to UFA than RFA and RFA has a large country with interests elsewhere, and the war is expensive in lives and money.)
Interesting how he and (by implication the administration) is moving to realism. A lot better than the shameful “analysis” (cheerleading) from Mick Ryan, during the counteroffensive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRVCg8uQn5A
Posted by: Anonymous | Sep 29 2024 19:45 utc | 101
Paradoxically, today another news report said Pentagon allocated $6 billion for more weapons, but the catch is they have no weapons (at least not the ones that are most needed). Hence, mathematically the unit price of each scarce weapon needs to go up by a lot to make the entire $ 6 billion disappear.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 29 2024 17:52 utc | 69
I believe that the six billion is earmarked for weapons that have not been made yet. They will get made, whether Ukraine exists to receive them or not, and the MIC will get paid up-front for the deal. I suppose they’ll have a garage sale and sell them to Pentagon at a reduced price of twice what they are charging Ukraine.
Posted by: Honzo | Sep 29 2024 19:49 utc | 103
Suppose the US, just as in 1945, wishes to “wipe Russia off the map”. Just like in 1945, atom bombs would be needed.
The US land (Minuteman) and submarine (Columbia) nuclear forces are old, and the replacement is over budget and underperforming.
By comparison, the F-35 stealth fighter program has the merit of having produced at least 1,000 planes.
The F-35 is stealthy, and US has produced nuclear weapons that fit _inside_ the F-35. Planned production is 400+ bombs. The numbers are comparable – 400 B61-12 atom bombs and 1,000 F-35 planes. 400 atom bombs is also comparable to the 204 atom bombs the US though necessary to “wipe the Soviet Union off the map” in 1945.
The explosive force of these nuclear weapons is not fixed, but can be chosen up to the last moment.
These “dial-a-yield” atom bombs allow beginning small, but ramping up the destructive force during a campaign.
This fits well with the US “escalation” policy seen in Ukraine.
A stealthy F-35 with an atom bomb in an internal bay could fly into Russia unnoticed, in the shadow of swarms of drones, and the occasional F-16 lighting up the radar.
One question is: is this realistic? Any attempt to wipe Russia off the face of the earth is going to face practical problems real fast.
But perhaps the question should be: Would the average White House professional sign off such a plan?
The F-35 / B-61 package has cost real money, and the pressure to provide something – anything – in return must be trmendous.
Posted by: Passerby | Sep 29 2024 19:22 utc | 91
Three facts should be sending shivers down the spine of everyone who cares about Russia.
The first one is that ten drones reached all the way to Shaykovka during the massive drone swarm attack on the 14th of August. Shaykovka. That’s well east of Moscow, and also a strategic airbase. Ten drones. If that many can fly all the way to there, what else can?
Second, the strike on Toropets. That appears to have been a pair of cruise missiles of some kind launched from Latvia, with nuclear warheads on them that were small, but not really that small (it was well above the sub-kiloton or low-single-digit range in which many of the covert tactical nuke strikes have been so far on both sides). And it succeeded completely. What kind of cruise missiles? Perhaps JASSMs, which fly low and stealthy, perhaps French ASMPs, which fly very fast, either way Russian air defense was successfully pierced. And that was just two missiles. What happens if a salvo of hundreds is launched?
Third, that was a nuclear explosion, and not a tiny one. Two of them in fact. And it was a strike on a national-level strategic object. Which should immediately raise the question what the hell was the mythical Perimeter “dead hand” system doing? Because certainly no retaliatory strike was launched. What does that tell us about it? Several options:
1) It doesn’t actually exist
2) It can be overridden by political leadership, in which case a decapitation strike would disable it. Now go back to those drones reaching well past Moscow and think about the implications
3) It requires a human in the loop. Same consideration as above.
4) It has been disabled recently, e.g. after the strike on Morozovsk (which also involved a pair of nuclear cruise or ballistic missiles, but with smaller warheads) in order to allow for a few such hits to be absorbed. Which would be an absolute insanity, of obvious reasons.
All of these options are some version of catastrophic.
Posted by: 1917 | Sep 29 2024 19:59 utc | 104
Yes and they murdered many Russians. But that doesn’t seem to matter much to posters here. When the citizens are murdered and pushed out of their homes, that is a loss.
Posted by: MiniMO | Sep 29 2024 19:38 utc | 98
Here is another dirty little secret – most of the pro-Russian posters here, as well as the analysts in the alternative media, hold the same racist attitudes towards Russians as the mainstream, it is just latent in their case and not on the surface. But the fundamental idea that Russian lives don’t hold much value seems to be just as ingrained in their minds as in those of everyone else in the West.
I have no other way of explaining the total callous disregard for the lives and well-being of Russian civilians that is on display daily.
P.S. How many articles and videos did you see about the state of the German economy and how bad the Germans have it from the pro-Russian analysts on the internet and how much attention did those same people pay to the dozens of victims of very precise and deliberate attacks on civilians every day and the hundreds of thousands of refugees inside Russia? That tells you a lot, doesn’t it?
Posted by: 1917 | Sep 29 2024 19:59 utc | 105
Ukraine went balls-to-the-wall on Kursk offensive, by now they have inserted 30 brigade and battalion size units there to reinvigorate the stalled offensive since August 5th.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 29 2024 18:42 utc | 84
And if you count other forces involved you’re probably talking about 50-100% more
Milites will probably do a better job than me (as mine is a rough estimate based on KIA)
I would say that very soon slightly over 80.000 were involved (i.e. being shot at, either in the front or in the staging/logistic areas) within 2 weeks AFU had to add an additional 20.000 and a month later another 20.000 (and will have to repeat every month). Last refill was probably a week ago.
I’m assuming half sanitary WIA recover in 2 weeks and half can be trown back on the saddle immediately, if it was a month, or a bigger part needing off front care, we’d be talking about 40.000 instead of 20.000 for the first refill (the first refill is sooner than the steady state refills because you have to pay for the stock or recoverable wounded, in the long run you just pay for the permanently disabled)
Posted by: Newbie | Sep 29 2024 20:04 utc | 106
It is too expensive in its current form and it will get even more expensive in the future.
Posted by: 1917 | Sep 29 2024 19:44 utc | 100
#########
You’re such a single-minded poster (as most Doomers are) that you miss the endless array of economic benefits and opportunities accruing to Russia from being at war.
Unlike America which funds it’s adventurism with debt, Russia operates lean and mean, with no vigorish for foreign owned and operated corporations.
Right now Russia has a lot of employment and a rapidly developing arms industry for export.
It’s able to cut exclusive trade deals thanks to sanctions and BRICS.
It has managed to capture the best Ukrainian land for resources and agriculture. All further fighting serves to consolidate and defend those gains.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 29 2024 20:11 utc | 107
Posted by: Honzo | Sep 29 2024 19:44 utc | 99
All absolutely valid. I should have been clearer in my response to @vargas that I was thinking in the more narrow terms of military aid from the West to Ukraine.
As you accurately describe, the wider economic ramifications for the power structures in the West are profound and not in a good way. There will be many who currently see themselves as emperors being left without any clothes.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 29 2024 20:18 utc | 108
All of these options are some version of catastrophic.
Posted by: 1917 | Sep 29 2024 19:59 utc | 104
What can you say about that? Putin collects until the measure is full. And then one night the big blow comes, and the next morning all the US-dependent super-democrats in the West rub their eyes in amazement. They caused thousands of Russian deaths, and now their corpses lie on the doorstep. But of course no one could have expected that with so many big lies, reality would one day come knocking.
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Sep 29 2024 20:19 utc | 109
Unlike America which funds it’s adventurism with debt, Russia operates lean and mean, with no vigorish for foreign owned and operated corporations. ***
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 29 2024 20:11 utc | 107
Jeffrey Sachs has spoken at length how he attempted and lobbied for World Bank intervention for Russia after the collapse of communism, along the lines of the Polish model. Seeing how nations with World Bank debt are basically neo-suzerainties, it seems to me Russia dodged a pretty major bullet.
Now, If the new multipolar order were include something like a World Bankruptcy Court that crammed down World Bank debt, that would be something.
Posted by: frithguild | Sep 29 2024 20:23 utc | 110
Though considerations of “will,” “resolve,” “boldness,” “cunning” and their contraries are of value and of course have a place, there’s a certain degree of explanatory power in a relatively simple ‘equation’:
The #Resistance & its multimodal partners in China, Russia, etc., have adopted an attritional strategy wherein they work to compound, accelerate & heighten the Western Globalist Empire’s own largely self-imposed decay–but at such a rate and scope as to maintain a threshold below open, full-scale warfare (which may well be species ending).
Conversely, the West–in every respect except perhaps belatedly in the military domain itself–has a marked preference for escalating to open, if limited, warfare. And pretty much anywhere in the world except Russia, the West has the capacity to escalate to a point where it can inflict more damage than its opponents can.
Given that its far easier to destroy, sow chaos and generally spread entropy–and with the Second Law of Thermodynamics solidly at the West’s back–the #Resistance has a marked preference for not pushing the West to such a point where it prefers to pull the entire temple of post-Stone-Age life down around everyone’s ears.
There are only one or two places / situations where this calculus cannot work–in warlike places whose infrastructure has already been largely destroyed, & without an ascendant bourgeoisie/oligarchy protecting its own interests (Yemen), and Russia, which matches and overmatches the West on almost every front. Here only the most fanatical/deluded Westards can countenance the costs that war with Russia entails.
In this context, though I agree that Bojo probably prevented Putin from falling into a strategic dead end that the Istanbul would have represented, at these higher levels on the escalatory ladder, Putin’s “failings”–his caution, his flexibility, his reasonableness–carry less weight to the extent that any failure, defeat, accommodation, or strategic concession is ever more clearly a preamble to another wave of relentless existential conflict.
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Sep 29 2024 20:31 utc | 111
1917 | Sep 29 2024 19:59 utc | 105
Shadowbanned, the reason we write about the effect on the German economy and not about Russian civilian deaths is that
a) Russia is at war and sadly people get killed
b) we know Russia will fight but there’s a chance that Germany will come to realise that subservience to US is crippling her
I really wanted to address Honzo – what we are seeing, albeit in slow motion, is the shift of global power from the West to the Far East. Had the US any sense, they’d have brought Russia and Germany together, instead of forcing Russia and China together. For too long they were stuck on Wolfovitz and Brzezinski, it was still 1997 in their heads, the US could still rule the world – meanwhile China were coming up on the rails while they watched Russia.
The US still has much power, but they no longer make commercial shipping (that’s all Far East plus a bit of Germany), their flagship civil air (Boeing) is crap, their ICE cars are crap, their tech is nearly all Taiwanese.
This was written in 2008, things have only deteriorated since:
https://www.fingleton.net/extract-from-in-the-jaws-of-the-dragon/
“Many commentators insist that the U.S. is turning the corner, but the test of all optimistic manufacturing talk is the international trade figures–and these tell a bleak story. From the volume of its exports to the strength of its trade surpluses, the U.S. was once the world’s strongest trading nation. It also generally ranked as the largest source of other nations’ imports. No longer. With its trade surpluses now a distant memory, the U.S. ranks first in a different category–as the world’s largest deficit nation. As of 2007, the U.S. has been passed by China in the total value of its exports. As recently as 1996, the United States outexported China by four to one. In 1991, Japan bought nine times as much from the U.S. as from China. As of 2006 it bought 50 percent more from China than from the United States. Moreover, the U.S. no longer even ranks as China’s largest source of imports: Japan’s exports to China are twice America’s.”
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Sep 29 2024 20:32 utc | 112
The Russian government will soon prepare a list of raw materials and processed products banned from export to unfriendly countries. The list will also include energy resources, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters on the sidelines of Russian Energy Week.
“The government is working on this order; there is a specific analysis of the situation on world markets and Russia’s capabilities. The corresponding proposals will be prepared in the near future,” he said.
“This is a fairly large list of products that are in demand on world markets today. But an analysis of feasibility and possibilities is certainly required, since we must first and foremost think about the development of our industries so that they do not suffer ,”
Novak noted, specifying that this also includes minerals.
Posted by: Jo | Sep 29 2024 20:56 utc | 113
Video of kids playing in a park. Two kids are dressed as TCC employees rounding up the other male kids in a forceful manner
https://t.me/ZeRada1/21690
Posted by: Down South | Sep 29 2024 21:05 utc | 114
Posted by: frithguild | Sep 29 2024 20:23 utc | 110
########
People of the Book (Abrahamic faiths) once understood that usury (debt with interest) is slavery.
As humans often do over time, all sorts of rationalizations have developed for what remains a major sin in Islam (to engage in usury as a borrower or lender) right up there with murder and fornication.
Today, one cannot buy a home without debt, will struggle to purchase a relatively new vehicle without debt, to get a higher education without debt, or to take a vacation without access to debt.
The colonial powers have mastered many techniques for “soft” enslavement that often develop into vassalage.
In a way, sanctions that cut a country like Cuba, Iran, and Russia out of the Western financial system can be seen as a boon and benefit.
I think that it would be tragic if Putin negotiated with Trump (or anyone from the West) to have sanctions removed.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 29 2024 21:10 utc | 115
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Kursk Direction: AFU Attacks in the Veseloye Area
Situation as of the end of September 29
Ukrainian formations continue attempts to attack in several areas of the Kursk Region.
🔻The most difficult situation is in the Glushkovo District. According to the published footage of objective control, the enemy is attacking with armored groups in the area of Veseloye, expanding the control zone north of Novy Put.
▪️The very fact of the publication of footage by the Russian side indicates the repulsion of the attack, while the advance of Ukrainian formations between Volfino and Veseloye is also confirmed. The village of Obukhovka is apparently in the gray zone, and the status of Krasnooktyabr’skoye is again in question.
▪️In Tetkinо, judging by the footage of strikes by enemy UAVs, there are no longer any Ukrainian formations within the settlement. However, it is difficult to say at what point the enemy was driven out or withdrew from there.
🔻In the Korenevo District, no changes in control zones have been observed, with clashes continuing. Attempts by the AFU to attack near Ol’govka and Kremyanoye were recorded, and counterattacks are ongoing in the vicinity of Lyubimovka.
🔻In the Sudzha District, the line of contact also remained static. There were reports of attacks by Ukrainian formations in the area of Plekhovo, but there is no information about changes in control zones in this area.
https://t.me/rybar_in_english/18065
Posted by: Down South | Sep 29 2024 21:11 utc | 116
Posted by: 1917 | Sep 29 2024 19:59 utc | 105
“I have no other way of explaining the total callous disregard for the lives and well-being of Russian civilians that is on display daily.”
Concern trolling – badly done too.
Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Sep 29 2024 21:30 utc | 117
“Concern trolling” is something I’ve seen thrown about quite a bit here. Can someone explain to me what it is, exactly?
Posted by: Stark | Sep 29 2024 21:33 utc | 118
reply to 92, et al
The Ruble looks weak and declining. 19% interest rates are freakin’ scary. All this BRICS/Dollar stuff will happen eventually but meantime, life ain’t fair. Russia has a laudable physical economy but finance wins the day (until it doesn’t). Still, the world doesn’t appreciate what Putin has achieved in fending off the finance string pullers.
Ukraine didn’t just go balls to the wall on Kursk, they ARE balls to the wall. Still wasting lives to have something to crow about. They did move territorial types there and pulled some experienced guys out.
I see Russia expanding drones like crazy in response to loss of artillery barrels (drones may be way more cost effective, bang for the buck).
Finally, the internet seems loaded with ‘nuclear war isn’t all that’ morons currently. They don’t appreciate how Russia is way ahead of the US on nuke stuff. Like MOX closed cycle fuel and breeder reactors that could generate until they crumble into dust (for centuries?) or nuke powered icebreakers on the Arctic Passage. Or even hot water in Siberian homes to use up excess reactor heat (uh, that’s OK, maybe I’ll shower tomorrow….)
Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 29 2024 21:40 utc | 119
Is this war in Ukraine cheap or expensive for the collective West?
Posted by: vargas | Sep 29 2024 14:54 utc | 19
This is very expensive for the west.
The USA engineered a coup in 2014, then engineered a Russian invasion by simultaneously arming Ukraine while bargining in bad faith over Minsk II.
The plan was for the Russians to break their teeth on the fortified Donbas manned by 60,000 NATO armed and trained while the USA levied “nuclear level” sanctions on Russia cutting them off from world trade.
That failed. The Russians feinted north toward kiev while securing a land route to Crimea instead of mounting “human wave” attacks against the fortified Donbass as per the “Russian playbook” and the sanctions out and out failed.
The world was watching. If the USA could seize Russia’s assets they could certainly seize anyones assets.
The BRICS went from 5 nations to 11 or 12 now with something like 100 nations expressing an interest in joining.
Iran was accepted into a larger trade group than the G7 and the USA could do fuck all about it.
The Saudi’s dropped the petrodollar and joined Brics.
The Houti’s fought the US navy to a strategic defeat.
The Middle east, which the USA / Israel have fought to wars to impose a hegemonic peace on for 70 years is doused in gasoline waiting for a spark.
Turkey … NATO’s second largest armed forces and the biggest land force in NATO … still openly trades with Russia, is threatening war with israel and has expressed an interest in joining BRICS.
This is the cost of the Ukraine war. Power and prestige = $$$$$. You want a hegemon who can keep the sea lanes open and who don’t start wars only to lose them
Posted by: HB_Norica | Sep 29 2024 21:44 utc | 120
MiniMO
“both US and European leaders flew to China to get it to admit that it won’t send weapons to Russia.”
You might have missed the part where China told the west to go and fist itself.
Or the recent statement by a Chinese senior military official openly stating that they support Russia militarily.
Are you getting your facts from Ukrainian media?
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Sep 29 2024 22:04 utc | 121
@Stark | Sun, 29 Sep 2024 21:33:00 GMT | 118
“Concern trolling” is something I’ve seen thrown about quite a bit here. Can someone explain to me what it is, exactly?
It’s when a poster pretends to care about and support the main view held by a majority of posters at a given site, but instead of actually supporting the view lists off a bunch of “concerns” he/she/it has about said view.
Example: “Golly gosh, I was really hoping Russia would win this war, but their military is so incompetent and weak, and just killing civilians, and Putin is such a loser of a leader, and Ukraine/NATO is so tough and strong that there is no way Russia will win. Which is a pity because I really wanted the Russians to win, but unfortunately they will never, ever, ever win.”
Some prominent concern trolls here include: Micron, MiniMo, maybe Vargas, and formerly Shadowbanned. There may be others, feel free to add to the list. Note: concern trolling is different from valid criticism.
One can critique the Russian conduct of certain campaigns or give credit to the Ukrainians at some points, but the basic tone and thrust of their posts would have to be more positive toward Russia to avoid being labeled a concern troll. As in – Russia will win, but they did a few things wrong, da, da, da, but since they adjusted, they will prevail – or something along those lines.
Posted by: James M. | Sep 29 2024 22:20 utc | 122
It has managed to capture the best Ukrainian land for resources and agriculture. All further fighting serves to consolidate and defend those gains.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 29 2024 20:11 utc | 107
Yep, Military Chronicle’s famous mineral map of Ukraine with mineral deposit value by oblast makes everything clear. Donetsk has $3.8 Trillion in minerals, Lugansk $3.2 Trillion, Dnipropetrovosk is in the same class with $3.5 Trillion. No wonder Blackrock and company are so obsessed with the Donbass. Every other oblast is well under a trillion. Nikolaev oblast is worth a paltry $38 Billion in minerals, Odessa even less at $10 Billion.
For cultural and humanitarian reasons, it would be nice to liberate Nikolaev and Odessa, but it’s not economically profitable. Also, why destroy these cities when you might eventually get them by referendum? Yes NATO likes Black Sea ports, but they already have Romania as a proxy, so the sea access is not that big a deal.
It will be interesting to see whether the RF pauses at the western border of Donetsk oblast, or just keeps the line rolling on to capture the mineral wealth of Dnipropetrovosk.
Posted by: Drifter | Sep 29 2024 22:42 utc | 123
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Kursk Direction: AFU Attacks in the Veseloye Area
Situation as of the end of September 29
Ukrainian formations continue attempts to attack in several areas of the Kursk Region.
Posted by: Down South | Sep 29 2024 21:11 utc | 116
As I mentioned above, I’d bet they got fresh 20.000 +- last week, should let them try again and again for a couple of weeks.
Posted by: Newbie | Sep 29 2024 22:56 utc | 124
I would imagine that VVP was referring to a swarm of drones sufficient to overwhelm all defences. Not just the latest rather puny and manageable fleet.
Posted by: necromancer | Sep 29 2024 23:07 utc | 125
The US still has much power, but they no longer make commercial shipping (that’s all Far East plus a bit of Germany), their flagship civil air (Boeing) is crap, their ICE cars are crap, their tech is nearly all Taiwanese.
This was written in 2008, things have only deteriorated since:
https://www.fingleton.net/extract-from-in-the-jaws-of-the-dragon/
“Many commentators insist that the U.S. is turning the corner, but the test of all optimistic manufacturing talk is the international trade figures–and these tell a bleak story.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Sep 29 2024 20:32 utc | 112
And more serious than that is that the us planed the transfer of wealth for the 21st century based on intellectual property.
China is outdoing us in patents, China and ROW are producing movies and series to dwarf the us and even video-games china is working hard to outpace the us.
On an even playing field even europe would probably hold better, than the us, on prestige luxury brands, specific food and drinks and (before germany’s and netherlands’ self back-stabbing) even precision machinery. Hell, even japan wold.
Maybe thee failure of the ussr was lacking in consumer goods, with china as a partner (could/should have been EU since the 90’s) the package they can offer to the ROW is now much better than the western one.
That’s why there was a change to, concentration on, financial and military racketeering.
my 2 cents of whatever coin starts nibbling the usd (but don’t expect miracles until the 2040’s, just enough to degrade us’s ability to easily coerce other countries)
Now why did I anwser this in the ukraine thread?
Because that will be a part of the endgame of the SMO, the bare minimum is the lifting of all secondary sanctions and a viable means to bypass the primary ones (us will probably keep the primary ones to save face, what EU will do I don’t know)
Posted by: Newbie | Sep 29 2024 23:10 utc | 126
People of the Book (Abrahamic faiths) once understood that usury (debt with interest) slavery. ***
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 29 2024 21:10 utc | 115
The injunction against usury has a strange relationship with allocation of capital because capital does not accumulate without finance. During the time that Aaron of Lincoln was claimed to have more wealth than the crown, governmental innovations, rates of capital formation (building) and general wellbeing were all flowering. Until of course the inevitable pogrom.
Not long after, there came a dark time when Stephen and Matilda contested for the throne. Unsurprisingly, neither could raise enough capital to put the dispute to actual conclusion. Quite a familiar repeating pattern, I would say.
Perhaps Exodus 22:25, Leviticus 25:35, and Deuteronomy 23:19-20 have been historocally misapplied. The key to these discussions seems to be that the debtor should be treated with compassion. This reality finds ritual manifestation in the notion of forgiveness of debt at Jubilee.
To bring this full circle, the debts inuring to the faceless blob secured by the assets of Ukraine have captured US policy. The slaughter of a million men to perfect a security interest is about as far from biblical permissability as can be imagined. This evil is why I have said the US State Department is infested with War Vampires.
Posted by: frithguild | Sep 29 2024 23:20 utc | 127
Based on my personal experiences with sociopaths, I’ve long held the opinion that Russia should have taken the gloves off a long time ago. However, I cannot help but notice that the paid trolls are saying the same thing. This is leading me to believe that Russia is actually making the right decision by keeping the gloves on for the time being.
Posted by: Donbass Lives Matter | Sep 29 2024 23:20 utc | 128
“Concern trolling” is something I’ve seen thrown about quite a bit here. Can someone explain to me what it is, exactly?
Posted by: Stark | Sep 29 2024 21:33 utc | 118
Concern trolling is pretending one is concerned about an outcome by one side while subtly expressing views which bolster the other side or sew doubts about one’s preferred team. Funny thing is that is can be real or imagined. It can be real concern or fake concern. Some here cannot stand to hear any criticism of Russia and label every criticism as trolling. Eg, some thought Shaddowbanned was concern trolling but I always thought he was sincere in his positions even if extreme. He represented the thoughts of many pro-Russians that Putin should hit harder earlier. Many sincere proRussians still feel that way. I wouldn’t worry about it. It’s just a label the simple minded throw about to discredit those they disagree with, just like the term trolling itself.
Posted by: Jens Skolen | Sep 29 2024 23:27 utc | 129
A couple of points, relates to China, and the Axis of Resistance as well.
The longer Russia takes to achieve its strategic objectives, the more wear and tear on men, morale, eq and economy. Hence, the constant upping the ante.
Russia’s response so far has been tested time and again by pin pricks, but this has a cumulating effect. Yet Russia and humanity cannot afford an overreaction.
A reasonable solution would be to turn the tables directly on the string pullers. US troops in Syria and Iraq are sitting ducks if proper equipment, intel and planning is provided to the resistance fighters.
The Zionist entity is ripe for failure if similar assistance is provided.
If the hegemon is preoccupied with its own set of problems, it will not have the time or energy to create new ones.
As Arch repeatedly kept saying on the Palestine Thread, Use it or lose it. Hezbollah waited too long.
May you finally find peace Hassan.
Posted by: Suresh | Sep 29 2024 23:35 utc | 130
What a coincidence of Mohammed bin Salman to flood the world with crude oil, after Russia burned most of its sovereign wealth fund and the kievite forces fucked Russia’s refining capacity up.
Posted by: Myrchäl | Sep 29 2024 23:43 utc | 131
“Concern trolling” is something I’ve seen thrown about quite a bit here. Can someone explain to me what it is, exactly?
Posted by: Stark | Sep 29 2024 21:33 utc | 118
Concern trolling is a word used to dismiss any idea from someone claiming to be pro-Russia and not applauding to anything Kremlinesque … The end goal is to have the first stopping to applaude be sent to Siberia to cut birches in Winter.
Bottomline is Free Speech no longer exist in the US, the former land of the Free, it does not anymore in Russia, the land of the Brave silenced, and neither amongst the alternative media, which too has learned to love censorship – as in Dr Strangelove learning to love the Bomb.
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Sep 29 2024 23:46 utc | 132
Posted by: Jens Skolen | Sep 29 2024 23:27 utc | 129
Concern trolling is pretending one is concerned about an outcome by one side while subtly expressing views which bolster the other side or sew doubts about one’s preferred team.
Lol! It’s not subtle, it’s actually quite in your face and obvious, as in the example pointed out by Jams O’Donnell in #117.
Funny thing is that is can be real or imagined.
It’s an inference, which is different from an imagination. Look up ‘inference’.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Sep 29 2024 23:52 utc | 133
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Sep 29 2024 23:46 utc | 132
#131 is another example of concern trolling. Consider the stupid exaggeration, “flooding the world”, lol.
In general, concern trolls are low-IQ nuisances that like to spoil the discussion of intelligent dissidents pretending to share their motivations.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Sep 29 2024 23:57 utc | 134
Posted by: James M. | Sep 29 2024 22:20 utc | 122
How about you are pro-Russia and you know that it is going to lose because of inept leadership and rampant corruption among the high ranking military and ministers … which is a proven fact. Not mentionning strict obedience to oligarchs which happen to be physically same billionaires on both sides of the fence … Making the conflict some game of mass killing civilians – and conscripts – while sparing billionaire belongings and continuing enrichment in Ukraine as well as in Russia.
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Sep 29 2024 23:59 utc | 135
A short taxonomy of trolls:
1) Trollus muccosus: they like to be disliked but it’s hard in real life so they got to internet fora.
2) Trollus concernicus: they pretend to share the motivations of intelligent dissidents to spoild intelligent discussion.
3) Trollus circumciscus: jews pretending to be Whites lamenting the (fake) high IQ of jews
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Sep 30 2024 0:01 utc | 136
LoveDonbass | Sep 29 2024 21:10 utc | 115
*** In a way, sanctions that cut a country like Cuba, Iran, and Russia out of the Western financial system can be seen as a boon and benefit.
I think that it would be tragic if Putin negotiated with Trump (or anyone from the West) to have sanctions removed.***
Agreed. Putin and his ruling group seem far too neoliberal/Atlanticist in inclination — too liberal altogether — and there would probably be encouragement of un-necessary foreign (Western) “investment”. A door to subversion of every kind.
For now, the economy may be strong — but the central bank is still headed by Nabulina.
Plus there are the Oligarchs (traitors — but was that to their *real* country?) who stabbed Russia in the back in the Yeltsin period … with their family and friends, still alive.
Posted by: Cynic | Sep 30 2024 0:03 utc | 137
@Jens Skolen | Sun, 29 Sep 2024 23:27:00 GMT | 129
Some here cannot stand to hear any criticism of Russia and label every criticism as trolling. Eg, some thought Shaddowbanned was concern trolling but I always thought he was sincere in his positions even if extreme. He represented the thoughts of many pro-Russians that Putin should hit harder earlier. Many sincere proRussians still feel that way. I wouldn’t worry about it. It’s just a label the simple minded throw about to discredit those they disagree with, just like the term trolling itself.
This is more an example of concern trolling in the guise of defending concern trolling. The premise, which is false, many posters assume here, is that this is an unbiased forum. It is not. The blog owner, Bernard or B, adheres to one particular worldview that most posters here either share or acknowledge is the predominat view.
Anyone upsetting that view over an extended period of time risks the label of troll. There are plenty of other outlets that illuminate a more pro-Western, anti-Russian narrative in the Western world. In fact, there is a literal ocean of them. Moon of Alabama stands as an oasis among them.
As for Shadowbanned, his view wasn’t nuanced. He was never “pro-Russian.” He was anti-Putin, and in a way very anti-Russian. He knew full well the consequences of Russia’s first use of nuclear weapons, which would be the likely extinction of Russia, yet he advocated for it anyway.
Posted by: James M. | Sep 30 2024 0:06 utc | 138
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Sep 29 2024 23:59 utc | 135
You belong in troll subspecies:
4) Trollus concernicus misseriblus: they resent the money of rich Russians because they are dirt poor so they blame it on corruption while faking concern for conscripts and blah blah.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Sep 30 2024 0:06 utc | 139
@Greg Galloway | Sun, 29 Sep 2024 23:59:00 GMT | 135
How about you are pro-Russia and you know that it is going to lose because of inept leadership and rampant corruption among the high ranking military and ministers … which is a proven fact.
As far as I know the SMO is still ongoing so Russia has not lost. Unless you are Nostradamus or have a crystal ball, how can you predict the future? Is there corruption in the Russian military, yes of course. There’s corruption everywhere, so what? Ukraine has as much, if not more corruption in its military, so it’s kind of a wash with Russia. How does this lead to Russia’s inevitable defeat?
Posted by: James M. | Sep 30 2024 0:10 utc | 140
Trump detests Volo in every possible way………he did not support or endorse Volo’ War Plan in any way.
Remember Volo and the Vindman brothers attempted to impeach DJT……….Trump would rather support Attila the Hun than Volo the First (and last)
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Sep 30 2024 0:11 utc | 141
Posted by: Honzo | Sep 29 2024 19:44 utc | 99
You hit the ball out of the park again with that comment which I find is worth re-reading.
“… every euro invested in this project is not just wasted in itself, but represents an opportunity cost that might have been employed in a different strategy- such as cooperation with Russia in mutual self-interest.” That is a truism of war generally, but in this case it demonstrates extreme sociopathy.
It occurs to me the heart of the matter is irrational hatred of Russia, pure hatred that demands violent action by those who will pay any cost no matter how much it hurts back. And who is the main source of this power and hatred? Expat Jews in the West. Their unmitigated influence and wealth engages and demands all political factions to fight their insane battle to the bitter end, sadly to other people’s detriment.
Posted by: norecovery | Sep 30 2024 0:11 utc | 142
Posted by: James M. | Sep 30 2024 0:06 utc | 138
Shallowloser also was a waste of time, composing extremely long and boring inanities that must have taken hours of copypasting shit into some kind of silly essay.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Sep 30 2024 0:12 utc | 143
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Sep 29 2024 23:59 utc | 135
Thanks for your example. That’s exactly a sample of what concern trolling is.
Posted by: Realist | Sep 30 2024 0:16 utc | 144
Drifter | Sep 29 2024 22:42 utc | 123
*** Yes NATO likes Black Sea ports, but they already have Romania as a proxy, so the sea access is not that big a deal.***
Fuck the “value” it is about safety and power.
Romania can — and maybe should — be smashed later.
Romania (Iron Guard excepted) let Germany down in WW2 and has clearly not improved since, with its desire to be a servile NATO playground.
Posted by: Cynic | Sep 30 2024 0:18 utc | 145
The end to this war is very, very near……….UAF continues to pour reinforcements into the Kursk fire cauldron despite the total lack of air cover, and enormous losses in manpower and armored resources. Why?
Because they know that their only hope in a world wide peace conference would be to hold a piece of Russian territory as a bargaining chip, no matter how small the chip. Their real tactical objective was to seize and hold the Kursk NPP, but that was not achieved so they had to settle for the pocket.
The southern front has been told to hold with what you have on hand, and hope for the best. They are gambling on a non frontal collapse before the winter rains and snow occur……a very bad bet. The creaking sound at the southern front is the wall imploding……
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Sep 30 2024 0:18 utc | 146
Posted by: norecovery | Sep 30 2024 0:11 utc | 142
Jews play a role in Western hegemonic ambitions but it is relatively minor IMO.
Jews started as parasites in the groins of Anglo and their prosperity in that dark environment allowed them to eventually move to the brain of Anglo.
But while there in Algo brain they upgraded themselves from parasites to symbionts.
Now they are symbionts of Anglo waiving their tiny fists from Anglo’s head threatening the world while the sucking the white stuff and smiling with a devious grin.
But the strength of the West really is in America, Anglo America, the jews just are sponging off and contributing little.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Sep 30 2024 0:24 utc | 147
Posted by: Newbie | Sep 29 2024 20:04 utc | 106
The Kursk adventure! I had prophesied that it would last a month, before moving on to the disintegration of the operation and starting the “great escape”. Calculating the combat autonomy of 36 hours per battalion employed, I was not wrong about the resistance time per battalion but about the number of battalions employed by Kiev. It seems that the brigades are 17 plus an indefinite number of battalions collected here and there for which we are still within the expected terms.
automatic translation
Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Sep 30 2024 0:27 utc | 148
Posted by: James M. | Sep 30 2024 0:06 utc | 138
I have an honest question for you and all the Putin fan boys here: Do you believe that the daily attacks on the Russian motherland from the Baltics, Scandinavia, Central Asia, East Asia, etc. – no matter where they come from – Will stop when Ukraine’s conflict ends? Why should this be the case when the Russian government has given a clear signal that it will not respond appropriately to these attacks. No, it won’t stop, it will literally be death by a thousand cuts for the Russian Federation, and therefore for the Putin government. Not responding to these attacks with all severity right from the start – and that means with devastating blows against the North American continent – was THE CARDINAL MISTAKE of Russian policy. The Russian Federation can no longer win this war…Or you can say it has already lost it. This is my honest analysis, and Shadowblabla and whatever the others are called are simply correct.You can’t start an affair like the one in Ukraine if you’re not willing to go all the way to the end. All of this raises serious questions about betrayal, ignorance, arrogance, indifference, corruption, stupidity…
Posted by: Larsbo | Sep 30 2024 0:54 utc | 149
…their only hope in a world wide peace conference…
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Sep 30 2024 0:18 utc | 146
What peace conference?
Posted by: Realist | Sep 30 2024 0:55 utc | 150
Russian military begins testing FPV drones against Ukrainian unmanned boats
Judging by the footage, the Black Sea Fleet fighters are practicing the tactics of launching FPV drones from a helicopter and searching for Ukrainian BEKs. The fighters work in pairs, in which one acts as a UAV operator, the other is his assistant, launching the drone from the helicopter. Theoretically, several operators can be placed in one helicopter, for whom a certain number of drones are prepared in advance, as shown in the video.
At the moment, it is unclear how effective the use of FPV drones will be against unmanned boats, but today the prospects for drones are the best. Earlier it was reported that the Navy began training drone operators to work on ships and above the sea surface.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 30 2024 1:05 utc | 151
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 30 2024 1:05 utc | 150
Looks like moscow is upping its drone capabilities, even though they already have complete drone dominance on the battlefields.
Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | Sep 30 2024 1:07 utc | 152
@ Larsbo | Sep 30 2024 0:54 utc | 148
Allowing myself to be facetious here, are those daily attacks in the room with us right now?
The only attacks which exist are coming from one source, because nobody else is this suicidal at the moment. This despite active lobbying back when the lie of “Russia is a gas station” was still effective. When the shooting phase of the western conflict reaches its inevitable end, there will be even less madmen to conceive attacking Russian Federation. The longer it goes, the better shape RF government, economy and military is in, the better poised for a response to any stupidity RF will be.
Posted by: boneless | Sep 30 2024 1:13 utc | 153
Russia’s never been as strong as today, to be honest. Its a wonder what liberation of ones people from the nazis in ukraine can do. they’ll be wiped out eventually…
Posted by: The Flying Scotsman | Sep 30 2024 1:16 utc | 154
Posted by: boneless | Sep 30 2024 1:13 utc | 152
Who was the “source” of the attack against the Murmansk region for example??? How do you know?
Posted by: Larsbo | Sep 30 2024 1:20 utc | 155
International reporter, Patrick Lancaster in Kursk…latest. Russian forces Capture key ukraine positions
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 30 2024 1:27 utc | 156
@ Larsbo | Sep 30 2024 1:20 utc | 154
Must be somewhere from Asia. Australia maybe? Who knows. That would require looking at the map. Yes I am mocking you, because you deserve to be with maintaining this silliness.
Posted by: boneless | Sep 30 2024 1:28 utc | 157
International reporter, Patrick Lancaster in Kursk…latest. Russian forces Capture key ukraine positions
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 30 2024 1:27 utc | 155
Whats that Hermie?
Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | Sep 30 2024 1:28 utc | 158
Whats that Hermie?
Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | Sep 30 2024 1:28 utc | 157
Errr…..here it is again
https://youtu.be/Sg2SCSwHVw0?si=6Su5uk7xMLkj8U2x
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 30 2024 1:30 utc | 159
Whats that Hermie?
Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | Sep 30 2024 1:28 utc | 157
Errr…..here it is again
https://youtu.be/Sg2SCSwHVw0?si=6Su5uk7xMLkj8U2x
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 30 2024 1:30 utc | 158
Isnt Patrick Lancaster the one who reported on the Kiev indesciminate attacks on civilians in Donetsk over ten years?
Posted by: Jesper from London | Sep 30 2024 1:33 utc | 160
Posted by: The Flying Scotsman | Sep 30 2024 1:16 utc | 153
##########
True and yet trolls of every persuasion inform us daily that America is unstoppable, and that Putin is some combination of weak/corrupt/treasonous.
People all over the world applaud Putin for the economic miracles he worked for Russia in the 00s, and now under sanctions.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 30 2024 1:37 utc | 161
https://youtu.be/Sg2SCSwHVw0?si=6Su5uk7xMLkj8U2x
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 30 2024 1:30 utc | 158
Isnt Patrick Lancaster the one who reported on the Kiev indesciminate attacks on civilians in Donetsk over ten years?
Posted by: Jesper from London | Sep 30 2024 1:33 utc | 159
😄 Thats him. Patrick Lancaster. Brilliant reporter. Brave.
Those were the days. When the mighty DPR militias whooped kiev arse at Donetsk airport lol
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 30 2024 1:38 utc | 162
People all over the world applaud Putin for the economic miracles he worked for Russia in the 00s, and now under sanctions.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 30 2024 1:37 utc | 161
Correct!. And now, militarily Russia is excelling!
Posted by: Jesper from London | Sep 30 2024 1:42 utc | 163
https://youtu.be/Sg2SCSwHVw0?si=6Su5uk7xMLkj8U2x
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 30 2024 1:30 utc | 158
And what about the the ukraine debacle at Debaltseve? As usual Kiev is outmanouvred.
Posted by: Fyador | Sep 30 2024 1:47 utc | 164
…even the russian MOD said it. So who was it?
Posted by: Larsbo | Sep 30 2024 1:35 utc | 160
Russian MoD quote, please?
Posted by: Realist | Sep 30 2024 1:49 utc | 165
Posted by: boneless | Sep 30 2024 1:43 utc | 164
Okay, another question: how many Russian CIVILIANS has this bungling policy cost their lives since 2015 (Debaltsevo)? Have a guess…
Posted by: Larsbo | Sep 30 2024 1:50 utc | 166
And what about the the ukraine debacle at Debaltseve? As usual Kiev is outmanouvred.
Posted by: Fyador | September 30, 2024 at 01:47
Was that 2015? 2016? I cant remember. But if im right the town was held by ukraine forces. Quite a fort. Donetsk republican forces managed to surround the town, which is an important rail hub, and trapping a couple of thousand kiev troops there. That encirclement, forced the then kiev president Poroshenko to the negotiating table with france, Russia and Gemrany. And we ended up with Minsk 1 agreement. The trapped ukraine troops were freed without being harmed.
Because thats the russian way!
Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | Sep 30 2024 1:53 utc | 167
Was that 2015? 2016? I cant remember. But if im right the town was held by ukraine forces. Quite a fort. Donetsk republican forces managed to surround the town, which is an important rail hub, and trapping a couple of thousand kiev troops there. That encirclement, forced the then kiev president Poroshenko to the negotiating table with france, Russia and Gemrany. And we ended up with Minsk 1 agreement. The trapped ukraine troops were freed without being harmed.
Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | Sep 30 2024 1:53 utc | 168
Too right the ukraine zombies got some beatings during those battles, despite all the western weapons they had. There were some heroes around then. Doeas anyone remember the Brave “Givi”? And that president, another brave man, Alexander Zachachenko. What a a leader….
Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | Sep 30 2024 2:03 utc | 168
Ukrainian Anti-Kiev Resistance Movement reports SBU building hit in morning strike on
Russian Armed Forces struck the SBU building in the city of Zaporozhye, the strike was carried out early Sunday morning, September 29. This was reported by the coordinator of the Mykolaiv underground, Sergei Lebedev.
Today was a very successful day for the Russian forces and a very unlucky one for the Ukrainian ones. As the Ukrainian underground reports, early this morning the Russian Armed Forces attacked the SBU building in Zaporizhia, where NATO officers were located. Most likely, the attack was during the strike with aerial bombs from the UMPK, today ours sent thirteen FABs to the city. At least, that’s what the city authorities claim.
It is known that one of the strikes was carried out on the SBU building, where NATO officers were at the time. The block around the building is cordoned off, and the rubble is being cleared. According to reports from doctors, at least 15 foreigners have died so far.
Another attack occurred at night in the village of Kotlyarovo in the Nikolaev region. According to the underground, a temporary deployment point of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, located in a local school or lyceum, was hit. It is not reported what exactly they hit, but they worked at night as drones- kamikaze “Geran” and OTRK “Iskander-M”. According to various sources, there may be 20 or more dead and the same number injured. The arrival of ambulances and firefighters due to the fire was recorded.
Regarding the landing, there was a hit on the school in Kotlyarovo, children aged 25-60 “studied” there, now they are being resettled in houses in neighboring villages. The landing was on Banderites from the service personnel. About 20 were wounded, the same number were killed.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 30 2024 2:11 utc | 169
“It is known that one of the strikes was carried out on the SBU building, where NATO officers were at the time. The block around the building is cordoned off, and the rubble is being cleared. According to reports from doctors, at least 15 foreigners have died so far.”
Posted by: HERMIUS | September 30, 2024 at 02:11
Russia knows exactly where the NATO officers gather. I wouldnt be surprised is there has been hundreds killed so far. But the media wont report it.
Posted by: The Flying Scotsman | Sep 30 2024 2:14 utc | 170
Posted by: Ted from Liverpool | Sep 30 2024 2:03 utc | 170
With the right, decisive policy, Ukraine would be back with Mother Russia for almost ten years now, thousands of CIVILIANS and thousands upon thousands of Russian soldiers would still be alive…But here the “genius” of Kremlin’s policies is being celebrated. A wise man once said: “Ich kann gar nicht so viel essen wie ich kotzen möchte”…
Posted by: Larsbo | Sep 30 2024 2:16 utc | 171
With the right, decisive policy, Ukraine would be back with Mother Russia for almost ten years now, thousands of CIVILIANS and thousands upon thousands of Russian soldiers would still be alive…
Posted by: Larsbo | Sep 30 2024 2:16 utc | 174
So, when did you want this war? 2030? 2035? Anyone with an ounce of brain cells knows it was heading this way. The west wants Russian resources. Simple as that mi old matey!
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 30 2024 2:24 utc | 172
Someone get the pantsirs, MOA is being overrun by care bear brigade 😀
Just came to say s has a new post and tried dabbling in tangential analysis. My thing.
Fest estimates a magnitude apart and some correctable comments . Should do it tomorrow.
Math could be much better.
Posted by: Newbie | Sep 30 2024 2:30 utc | 173
So, when did you want this war? 2030? 2035? Anyone with an ounce of brain cells knows it was heading this way. The west wants Russian resources. Simple as that mi old matey!
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 30 2024 2:24 utc | 175
Haha! 😂
Posted by: Jordan Marx | Sep 30 2024 2:30 utc | 174
So, when did you want this war? 2030? 2035? Anyone with an ounce of brain cells knows it was heading this way. The west wants Russian resources. Simple as that mi old matey!
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 30 2024 2:24 utc | 175
Hermius, you just gotta be a cockney! Mi old Matey?
Posted by: The Flying Scotsman | Sep 30 2024 2:32 utc | 175
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 30 2024 2:24 utc | 175
There will be no war, don’t fool yourself and us. We all know wha t will happen…When I saw the fuckface Abramovich in Gomel and Istanbul, it was clear what will happen.
Posted by: Larsbo | Sep 30 2024 2:34 utc | 176
Larsbo @174
Certainly there’s room to question the Russian decisions made in 2014.
But if the West had done half what they’ve done since 2022, it’s not clear that Russia would have triumphed. Russian strategists are not in the business of hoping. Just as UKR did, but far more effectively, they’ve been preparing, insulating themselves against sanctions, consolidating society, isolating proWestern oligarchs, developing decisive new weapons systems, watching the West slowly bleeding out. If they could have delayed to 2030 what the West forced upon them in 2022, they might well have opted for that, getting stronger, watching the West grow weaker.
Posted by: Paul Damascene | Sep 30 2024 2:35 utc | 177
With the right, decisive policy, Ukraine would be back with Mother Russia for almost ten years now
Posted by: Larsbo | Sep 30 2024 2:16 utc | 174
And what policy would that be? Do you know anything about the history of Ukraine-Russia relations? I don’t think so. It’s been a seesaw battle between Russia and NATO/West/US over Ukraine for the past thirty years.
War is always the last policy option to choose, after other avenues have been exhausted. This path was forced onto Russia, and the Kremlin has no other option but to see it through to the end.
Posted by: James M. | Sep 30 2024 2:45 utc | 178
There will be no war, don’t fool yourself and us. We all know wha t will happen…When I saw the fuckface Abramovich in Gomel and Istanbul, it was clear what will happen.
Posted by: Larsbo | Sep 30 2024 2:34 utc | 179
Fair enough Mr Lasbo. What will heppen then?
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 30 2024 2:54 utc | 179
Posted by: MiniMO | Sep 29 2024 19:36 utc | 95
“Only Iran has given Russian some drones. Neither China nor other countries have given weapons to Russia and both US and European leaders flew to China to get it to admit that it won’t send weapons to Russia.”
Didn’t we just read a month or two ago that North Korea was sending millions of artillery shells by train to Russia in exchange for technical assistance from Russia to upgrade their manufacturing processes. I’m pretty sure that was covered here on MOA.
Posted by: Paranaense | Sep 30 2024 3:15 utc | 180
The obsessive part of me wants to read every single comment of this thread. I’ve done it before. Not just on MOA, also other -hangouts-.
I’ve burnt out on this abysmal state of our species. It isn’t that I can’t ‘take it’. The truth is I’m at the point where I’m tired of waiting. The longer it takes for this madness to be finally, at whatever price….Resolved, the longer that the survivors must wait to begin bringing peace.
Posted by: Robert Hope | Sep 30 2024 3:21 utc | 181
Posted by: James M. | Sep 30 2024 2:45 utc | 181
Are you nuts man??? I first visited Stalingrad 1985 when I was 15 as a school boy.
Since the winter of 1991, I had a Galician lover from Brody, the birthplace of my favorite german writer, for almost ten years…
Since the 90s I have traveled to Central and Eastern Europe countless times, including the Asian part of Russia up to Vladivostok. Nobody, really nobody except a very small caste of politicians wanted to see Ukraine independent of Russia in the 90s. Ukraine wanted to remain part of the USSR, the referendum on March 17, 1991 was clear with 71.4% yes votes . Anyone who tells you otherwise is rewriting history
Posted by: Larsbo | Sep 30 2024 3:24 utc | 182
@ Robert Hope | Sep 30 2024 3:21 utc | 184
who is tired of waiting, like many of us Westerners with a hit of instant gratification in our blood…
I have two thoughts to share.
1. There is more going on in our world right now at all levels than ever before and the interactions between everything is anything but slow….there are centuries in which nothing changes as well as years within which eons shift. The patriarchal, barbaristic, monotheistic God Of Mammon cult that owns global private finance set the rules of the form of social organization we live in and that top down hegemony system is under attack by the China/Russia axis…..the Ukraine proxy SMO that this thread is about is part of the attack against global hegemony
2.
The Hopi Precepts are best repeated when in times of waiting
1. Show Up.
2. Be Present.
3. Tell The Truth.
4. Don’t Own The Outcome.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 30 2024 3:47 utc | 183
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 30 2024 2:54 utc | 182
A long agony and in the end…Ah what the fuck do I know…
Posted by: Larsbo | Sep 30 2024 3:49 utc | 184
Posted by: Larsbo | Sep 30 2024 3:24 utc | 185
Traveling somewhere doesn’t make you an expert on foreign policy analysis. I ask again, what strategy should Russia, a weakened Russia mind you, especially in the 1990s, have followed to ensure Ukraine remains/remained in its orbit?
Posted by: James M. | Sep 30 2024 4:29 utc | 185
Posted by: Paranaense | Sep 30 2024 3:15 utc | 183
########
You are correct that North Korea is providing logistical support. Russia has what it so dearly needs. Food. North Korea is very rocky and poor for large-scale agriculture. Russia produces a lot of food.
An important pact was also concluded between Russia and the DPRK. If either goes to war, the other must join them, IIRC. None of the soft optionality of NATO’s Article 5.
The DPRK has a top 10 military by manpower. Russia + DPRK should be able to handle everything Europe can throw at it if it comes to that.
Western fans can’t seem to grasp how much the world has changed this year. Americans are too busy with elections. It seems they are constantly engaging in them, much to the detriment of accomplishing anything else, IMO.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 30 2024 4:58 utc | 186
@LoveDonbass | Mon, 30 Sep 2024 04:58:00 GMT | 189
An important pact was also concluded between Russia and the DPRK. If either goes to war, the other must join them, IIRC. None of the soft optionality of NATO’s Article 5.
This is the key text from the “DPRK-Russia Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership”:
In case any one of the two sides is put in a state of war by an armed invasion from an individual state or several states, the other side shall provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter and the laws of the DPRK and the Russian Federation.
For reference this is Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty:
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
The North Korea/Russia treaty states the parties shall provide military assistance, while the NATO treaty says the parties will assist with actions each deems necessary. So yes, the Russia/DPRK treaty uses stronger language.
And remember North Korea has a similar pact with China. China’s only treaty ally, by the way. Relevant clause is here:
“The Contracting Parties undertake to jointly take all measures to prevent any country from aggression against any of the Contracting Parties. If one of the Contracting Parties is attacked by any country or several countries in a coalition and thus falls into a state of war, the other Contracting Party shall immediately provide military and other assistance to the best of its ability.”
So yeah, you have something pretty close to a Russia/China/North Korea alliance in the offering. If one is attacked, the other two might be drawn into a war. That’s more than enough deterrent for NATO.
Now whether that actually happens or not is another question. Treaties are, or can be, ephemeral, as states may choose not to honor them. And alliances come with their own dilemmas – fear of abandonment and entrapment, which is why NATO is ineffective.
But hopefully we’ll never have to find out if a Russia/China/North Korea and potentially Pakistan and Iran alliance will fight the US/NATO/Australia/Japan/Israel. The survivors of such a war may envy the dead.
Posted by: James M. | Sep 30 2024 5:32 utc | 187
Dima says that the Ukrainian army is advancing further and further in the Kursk region and has captured important settlements. This must be another cunning Russian 5D chess move. Can anyone be more specific?
Posted by: guest from franconia | Sep 30 2024 5:37 utc | 188
@Paranaense | Mon, 30 Sep 2024 03:15:00 GMT | 183
I have MiniMo blocked, but he’s wrong. China has given Russia weapons, just incognito.
Posted by: James M. | Sep 30 2024 5:45 utc | 189
#Summary for the morning of September 30, 2024
▪️ All night long, enemy resources reported the work of our strike UAVs, the main target of which was the enemy’s capital region. Explosions were also recorded in #Dnepropetrovsk, #Zaporozhye, #Zhitomir, #Vinnytsia and #Cherkasy regions . #Kharkov and #Sumy regions were processed by FAB with UMPK.
▪️ In the #Kursk region, the AFU have been increasing pressure in the #NovyPut – #Vesyoloye direction over the past 24 hours, expanding the control zone near the border town of #Volfino and trying to bypass #Vesyoloye from the left flank. In the #Sudzhansky district, active actions by our units south of #Plekhovo were reported.
▪️ In the #Krasnolimansk direction, the liberation of #Makeyevka (LPR) has been confirmed. Along with the expansion of the control zone to the south, two front protrusions have been formed in #Nevsky.
▪️ In #Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk), the Russian Forces continue their assault operations, with fighting for every house. The enemy is conducting counterattacks with the support of armored vehicles. Heavy fighting continues in the northern part of #NewYork (Novgorodsky).
▪️ In the #Pokrovsk direction, our troops north of #Nikolaevka are destroying enemy strongholds that stand on the way to #Mirnograd. #Selidovo and #Tsukurkino are being taken in a semi-envelopment, the logistics of the AFU in populated areas are being limited.
▪️ #Ugledar is almost completely surrounded, the escape routes of the AFU from the city are being shelled. The commander of the 72nd brigade of the AFU, responsible for the defense of the city, has been removed from office. Our troops are methodically destroying enemy firing points in the city. To the west, units of the “East” force group managed to come close to the eastern borders of #ZolotayaNiva.
▪️ On the #Zaporozhye front, the AFU are shelling the Zaporozhye NPP again. A direct hit from Ukrainian artillery destroyed the transformer of the Raduga substation. The power supply situation in #Energodar is under control, the city is powered.
▪️ #Belgorod Region is under constant shelling by the AFU. In #Oktyabrsky, Belgorod District, one solder was killed and one civilian was wounded. #Vyazovoye, #Krasnoyarsk District, #Murom, #Shebekino Urban District, and #Shebekino were shelled.
▪️ In the #DPR, six civilians, including a child, were injured today as a result of the actions of the AFU. #Donetsk and #Gorlovka were hit. In the liberated part of #Dzerzhinsk, an explosive device was dropped from the enemy drone, a man born in 2001 received moderate injuries.
Posted by: Down South | Sep 30 2024 6:40 utc | 190
Our source reports that the resignation or even transfer to another position of the Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate Budanov and the “tacit consent” of his lobby/roof to such actions by Zelensky will mean one thing – Western partners are withdrawing all their clientele from Zelensky’s team before the turning point.
This may be the signing of a forced peace, but which many will call a conditional capitulation of Ukraine, which will reset the ratings of everyone who will be at the “helm/in the system” with Zelensky and Yermak.
There is also a possibility that Ukraine will experience negative results on the military track in the coming months, which will entail major rating consequences and it is better to abandon the “ship” before it starts to sink.
Bankova understands this, but they have a classic “fork”, where both options to leave or fire are bad.
Yermak also knows that the partners have not abandoned the idea of a quick military Maidan/coup, and it can easily be led by Budanov and the same Zaluzhny from London. The political elite will support them, the main thing is that the West approves.
Conclusion: the political crisis in Ukraine will escalate, as will the squabbles within the system.
Posted by: Down South | Sep 30 2024 6:42 utc | 191
Our source in the General Staff said that in Ugledar, the Ukrainian Armed Forces units began to surrender to the enemy, since the retreat from the city is under the fire control of the Russian army and we suffer heavy losses during the retreat. Syrsky never gave the order to withdraw the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Ugledar, which will cause the destruction of the 72nd brigade.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/24482
Posted by: Down South | Sep 30 2024 6:45 utc | 192
Our source reports that many people in Zelensky’s entourage are saying that there will be a real understanding in the Ukrainian case by mid-October.
Everyone is sure that the Ukrainian crisis has become directly dependent on another conflict for the first time – the Middle East.
If Israel gets bogged down in Lebanon, then the Ukrainian crisis will be “sent under the knife”. The best option would be to leave it in a smoldering state, and the worst would be a freeze, a peace case with the renunciation of territory, etc.
Israel and Netanyahu, because of their ambitions, set up Ukraine and Zelensky. The President’s Office is very offended and angry at Israel, which is ruining their game.
Posted by: Down South | Sep 30 2024 7:09 utc | 193
As per Down South’s 199 quote, the Ukraine party is over. The Brits may hang around for awhile but from here on its likely to be mostly Russia cleaning up the bottles and trash and straightening the chairs and tables.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 30 2024 7:19 utc | 194
In the Ugledar direction, Russian units are advancing towards Bogoyavlenka.
The main focus of the fighting here is increasingly shifting from the Ugledar area to the Bogoyavlenka area, as previously reported by the Ukrainian military. In this area, the Russian army is trying to break through the Ukrainian defense line in this area. The Russian attack aircraft were just over a kilometer away from the village. The main blow of the attacks by the Russian Armed Forces falls on the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the prevailing heights to the east and southeast of the village. Taking them will give Russian troops visual control over the settlement and make it possible to cut off the main line of communication of the Ukrainian forces – the highway to Trudovoye and further to Kurakhovo.
The Ukrainian military notes a sharp deterioration in the supply of units defending Bogoyavlenka due to the fact that the Russian Armed Forces were able to take fire control (drones and ATGMs) of this main supply route approaching the village from the northeast.
The 72nd brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces – the Ugledar garrison continues to hold the remaining – about half of the city.
https://t.me/the_military_analytics/21033
Posted by: Down South | Sep 30 2024 7:29 utc | 195
Our source reports that many people in Zelensky’s entourage are saying that there will be a real understanding in the Ukrainian case by mid-October.
Everyone is sure that the Ukrainian crisis has become directly dependent on another conflict for the first time – the Middle East.
If Israel gets bogged down in Lebanon, then the Ukrainian crisis will be “sent under the knife”. The best option would be to leave it in a smoldering state, and the worst would be a freeze, a peace case with the renunciation of territory, etc.
Israel and Netanyahu, because of their ambitions, set up Ukraine and Zelensky. The President’s Office is very offended and angry at Israel, which is ruining their game.
https://t.me/legitimniy/18782
Posted by: Down South | Sep 30 2024 7:09 utc | 199
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Optimistic. I doubt a freeze is on the cards at this point, the RF has no incentive.
Plus a coup in Kiev, would rattle the whole system a-la South Vietnam. Where changing horse mid-gallop proved a destabilising disaster.
As bad as Zelensky is, he’s the only Ukr leader NATO has got. Trying anyone else is more like to implode the system. Than improve it.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Sep 30 2024 7:34 utc | 196
Paul Damascene @ Sep 29 2024 20:31 utc | 111
Great analysis, I would add that the Western powers can mostlz work with similar, stratified, entrenched interests/elites.
The opponents that resist these mechanics best have the upper hand, something to be seen in Russian and Chinese playbooks, not so much in the Israel conflict. I assume this will change in the future.
Putins failings are to a large part implicit to the püower structures. He can not go against all the oligarchs at the same time, he has to cater to their specific interests. Large scale bombing or decapitation strikes in Ukraine would not have served, same for a loss of Donbass.
And pretty much anywhere in the world except Russia, the West has the capacity to escalate to a point where it can inflict more damage than its opponents can.
This part I disagree with, NATO is past the point of diminishing returns, just doesn’t know it yet. It’s also being tested by Ansarallah, the Red Sea is a test balloon. Right now UK strategic submarines and US oilers are dropping out of the game, US carrier fleets avoid the Red Sea, third rate countries like Germany are used to deter China by “freedom of navigation” triggers.
I don’t think anyone in the Pentagon could win against China in the Pacific or even define a victory condition beyond “strategic deterrence”. Holding Taiwan or the Phillipines in the Western sphere of influence is to be considered a win. The main issue here is that it is much easier to start wars than to win them, this is what the ROW are trying to teach NATO via Ukraine – accepting that conflict was a wise choice. Russia and China also have proxies to keep the physical warfare off their homelands.
There is a chance the next conflict accepted will be the Middle East, entangling alliances are a good judo move angainst empires, just the preparation has to ensure sufficient opposition to adventurism. Iran will have traded Ukraine arms deliveries for equal backup against Israel at a later stage. For Russia and Iran the optimal outcome now is to keep both conflicts mostly sequential – or Ukraine to be sufficiently secured strategically.
Israel may well be the next drain to US arms stocks, another conflict where a tiny proxy consumes significant resources while assured to be losing.
Short term thinking perceives a winning trade here where a long term perspective ensures attrition. Judo, Checkers or Chess?
Posted by: SOS | Sep 30 2024 7:35 utc | 197
Eighthman @ Sep 29 2024 21:40 utc | 119
The Ruble looks weak and declining. 19% interest rates are freakin’ scary.
Interest rates in themselves aren’t good or bad. Interest is paid as well as received, so it nets out in terms of velocity and is not “money lost”.
Only well running economies can pay high interest, this ensures focus on scarce resources, creating a lean and mean machine. It means investment is preferred over consumption. A 0% interest rate causes the opposite as there is no immediate penalty, short term thinking and momentum prevails.
A regime of rising or falling rates has it’s own set of overlapping effects. Most are rarely understood as they happen on timescales of 10-20 years where economists try to find their laws “ceteris paribus”, aka momentarily.
Posted by: SOS | Sep 30 2024 7:35 utc | 198
The patriarchal, barbaristic, monotheistic God Of Mammon cult that owns global private finance set the rules of the form of social organization we live in and that top down hegemony system is under attack by the China/Russia axis.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 30 2024 3:47 utc | 186
We can agree to disagree concerning some features about the death cult our global leaders follow. Patriarchal? Nope, actually Matriarchal, at the higher levels the females dominate the males. (Actually the BRICS nations are more patriarchal, especially China) Savage, brutal, bloodthirsty? Absolutely, although the followers consider themselves the epitome of civilisation and the deplorable peasant cattle to be the barbarians. Monotheistic? Absolutely not! Yes, the lower levels are about Mammon, but Moloch is also followed, goddesses too, and their supreme deity is a hermaphrodite.
Posted by: Drifter | Sep 30 2024 7:35 utc | 199
has captured important settlements. This must be another cunning Russian 5D chess move. Can anyone be more specific?
Posted by: guest from franconia | Sep 30 2024 5:37 utc | 191
Yes, the have captured Zolotaya Pizda and Novy Sralich, we should all be deeply concerned.
Posted by: 2TonCat | Sep 30 2024 7:41 utc | 200