News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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September 22, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-226
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The presence of Western ISR has gone some way in redressing these imbalances, often preventing or attenuating Russia’s exploitation of them, but it’s only a force multiplier and therefore restricted to what combat power is initially available. Ukraine has never had a chance, due to the short-sighted and faulty decisions that had been made for her, by her handlers. The traditional peril of being a proxy.
Posted by: Milites | Sep 25 2024 21:02 utc | 705
“only a force multiplier and therefore restricted to what combat power is available”
That’s why things have moved, and further advance towards, the Monty Python black knight “come over here, i’ll bite your head off!”
Posted by: Newbie | Sep 25 2024 21:07 utc | 701
Russia has changed it’s nuclear doctrine.
Still, I am optimistic. I assume that Russia will do a nuclear test first. Next perhaps an attack using conventional missiles. Maybe a last frank, unambiguous message, to cover the legal angle?
Dmitry Medvedev
The event that has been awaited
The Russian President has outlined approaches to the new version of the Fundamentals of State Policy in the field of nuclear deterrence. The main changes are as follows.
1. an aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear-weapon state, but with the support or participation of a nuclear-armed country, will be considered a joint attack. Everyone understands which countries we are talking about.
2. Equal nuclear protection will be established for Belarus as our closest ally. To the “joy” of Poland and numerous NATO pygmies.
3. Massive launch and crossing of our border by the enemy’s aerospace means of destruction, including airplanes, missiles and UAVs, under certain conditions can become the basis for the use of nuclear weapons. A reason to think not only about the rotten neo-Nazi regime, but also about all of Russia’s enemies, who are pushing the world towards a nuclear catastrophe.
It is clear that each situation that gives reason to turn to nuclear defense must be assessed in conjunction with other factors, and the decision to use nuclear weapons will be made by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. However, the very change in the normative conditions of our country’s use of nuclear components may cool down the ardor of those opponents who have not yet lost their sense of self-preservation. Well, and for the dumb-headed will remain only the Roman maxim: caelo tonantem credidimus Jovem Regnare…
Posted by: Passerby | Sep 25 2024 21:41 utc | 702
LoveDonbass @ 704
I was being ironic, but not about going dark, not publishing a nuclear policy, and if you have something to say, any warning you make, you say it head to head on the red phone when the time comes, make them sweat and stress more than you. The paperwork is meaningless anyway, as it should be, I’d hate for the end of the world to be bureaucratic, the final expression of the banality of evil. Kennedy and Khrushchev going through back channels to save the world is the exact opposite of bureaucratic banality, and let’s hope that’s how any and all nuke crises play out, rather than hitting the button when the punch list is all checked off.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 25 2024 21:56 utc | 703
Summary:
*Russia establishes drone factory in China, sources tells Reuters
*Russian arms firm develops UAVs for use in Ukraine, they say
*China-made drones have been delivered to Russia – sources, docs
*Chinese government says it is not aware of such a project
Posted by: Justpassinby | Sep 25 2024 16:51 utc | 673
So, what is Russia doing anything different than the west, like the (allegedly) home grown Ukie cruise missle that looks suspiciously like a first generate US cruise missle.
What will the West do about – start a war with China? Ahahahahaha – oh shit wait a minute….
Posted by: drsmith | Sep 25 2024 21:57 utc | 704
WHY WAS IT NECESSARY TO CONVENE THE SECURITY COUNCIL ON NUCLEAR DETENTION TODAY?
This Security Council could be called “on Russia’s response to possible strikes on its territory.” In the very near future, Biden, before finally disappearing into oblivion, will officially authorize an attack on Russia with American and British long-range missiles at a meeting with Zelensky.
That is, in essence, he will unleash World War III. Because when the Ukrainians, and in fact the Americans, start hitting strategic targets, undermining the nuclear shield, there will be nowhere to retreat.
And right now it makes sense to once again clearly outline to the world the gloomy prospect that is facing it. Since nuclear deterrence no longer restrains anyone, then let them know what will happen to them.
There are no more red lines? So, there are specific steps that Dmitry Medvedev has repeatedly described in his work.
In the video, Putin talks about the main principle of nuclear safety: If someone decides to destroy Russia, we have the legal right to respond. Yes, it will be a global catastrophe. But why do we need such a world if there will be no Russia there?
https://x.com/vicktop55/status/1838938553604067386
No English subtitles with this video, but Putin has spoken about this before. I’m not sure if this is from the older video or recent.
In the Palestinain thread, b wrote something about Hezbollah or the Lebanese not giving up but the Israeli population will. Like Ansar Allah, Hamas, Iran, impossible to beat because they dont give up. Russia the same.
I an archaeological type history on the Slavs sometime back very good ell researched doco. They quoted from old Roman and Greek writings that the people in the area of Kiev (not that it existed then) marked on the map, were strong in defence and impossible to defeat.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 25 2024 22:06 utc | 705
I suggest everyone looks at DPA latest. He is a smart guy. He is getting worried. He is a very good and fair analyst. His English is getting much better too so easier to understand and he can mostly pronounce the Russian names
Posted by: watcher | Sep 25 2024 22:07 utc | 706
More than typos in that sentence… I’ll write that paragraph again
Some time back, I watched a very well researched archaeological type history doco on the Slavs. They quoted from old Roman and Greek writings that the people in the area of Kiev (not that it existed then) marked on the map, were strong in defence and impossible to defeat. That was 2000 or so years ago.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 25 2024 22:12 utc | 707
Almost forgot something!
Happy 400.000 KIA this year AFU!
And just before the end of this month well hit a round 800.000 KIA for the whole SMO.
Yes, 9 months of 2024 were deadlier than the previous 23.
And the next quarter should come in at 200.000 (try checking august and september for extrapolation)
2024 will close at 600.000 AFU KIA, with the previous 400.000, for 2022 and 2023, and it’s a round million.
Of course this number is not attainable if Z doesn’t do the children’s crusade play soon, so…
Remember that for every KIA you get at least one permanently disabled WIA .
Now for a short term effect when you’re bleeding 70.000 kia per month, you are also bleeding 70.000 permanently wia, AND almost 300.0000 that will recover IN TIME. Maybe half don’t do it in a month so a shortfall of another 150.000 is not impossible and therefore the children must be called upon.
https://mskvremya.ru/article/2023/1520-poteri-ukrainy-za-vremya-spetsoperatsii
Posted by: Newbie | Sep 25 2024 22:12 utc | 708
I’m stating the obvious here, but it is clear that Russia specifically waited until now to update its nuclear policy, the hub-bub over missile strikes inside Russia is secondary, primary is that Project Ukraine must really be on the verge of collapse, and that is the most dangerous time with regards to the USA.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 25 2024 22:17 utc | 709
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 25 2024 21:56 utc | 710
###########
Giving a warning is expected of rational countries in leadership positions. Very public, very open, widely broadcast warnings.
That way when you do the thing, everyone knows it is coming, and the other party bears some responsibility for provoking the response.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 25 2024 22:20 utc | 710
Milites | Sep 25 2024 21:02 utc | 705
Agree. Kursk a desperation move by UK/Zelensky (his skin literally on the line) once the ongoing attrition reached its inevitable conclusion.
Been a few false endings previously when after one army was destroyed, a fresh batch of cannon fodder and equipment would be wheeled in. Its good seeing it start to happen now. Pretty much ascertained this time as forces had to be pulled from other directions rather than a fresh batch wheeled in.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 25 2024 22:24 utc | 711
Posted by: Escobar | Sep 25 2024 12:50 utc | 641
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Sep 25 2024 12:51 utc | 642
Posted by: Escobar | Sep 25 2024 12:01 utc | 630
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Sep 25 2024 12:08 utc | 632
Looks like Blanchard/RSH/Dolphin/now Escobar already exposed his new handle. Twice in the same thread. Oh dear, he can’t even keep his multiple personalities in order.
Posted by: James M. | Sep 25 2024 22:30 utc | 712
@Passerby | Wed, 25 Sep 2024 21:41:00 GMT | 709
I assume that Russia will do a nuclear test first
Russia signed and ratified the Nuclear Test Ban treaty, so no, they won’t do any nuclear tests, unless it is in space. But I don’t think they would even do that.
Posted by: James M. | Sep 25 2024 22:35 utc | 713
About the timing of the public announcement
Peter AU1 reported that the F 16s were grounded a couple of days ago which says this is public news.
I don’t know what/who the back channels are to the God Of Mammon cult but expect the empire military to know, if not part of the channel.
We are watching history being made that much will be written about unless there is nothing written….
Us little people will be told whatever is necessary at the appropriate time….unless you feel a blast….
Love yourself and all around you in spite of the differences…..its the invincible energy of the human psyche, IMO.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 25 2024 22:37 utc | 714
psychohistorian | Sep 25 2024 22:37 utc | 721
In the cold war, there was always a president to president hotline present. That is now gone and as per Putin in the Carlson interview, it is now SVR head to CIA head line. CIA are the decision makers or speak for the decision makes.
Baubles like Biden are are just something to keep the dumocracy occupied.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 25 2024 22:43 utc | 715
President Putin
“In the updated version of the document, aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state, is proposed to be considered as their joint attack on the Russian Federation.”
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 25 2024 23:05 utc | 716
Posted by: Newbie | Sep 25 2024 21:07 utc | 708
Also the law of diminishing returns that affects any technology, as the initial impact wears off and the opponent’s counter-measures take effect. This normally leads to the classic counter, counter-counter measure dance, but the system never has the same effect as when it was first deployed.
However, in the SMO, whilst Russia has, to a greater or lesser degree, been able to effect this act/react cycle for most, if not all threats, Ukraine has not. No active defence against hypersonic missiles, no defence against glide-bombs, no defence against SRBM’s, all huge attrition multipliers, with operational and strategic impacts. Most of the Ukrainian successes have been in the tactical realm, with limited operational or strategic cross-overs, however ‘spectacular’ the media focused ops are.
Posted by: Milites | Sep 25 2024 23:45 utc | 717
@Newbie | Wed, 25 Sep 2024 22:12:00 GMT | 715
2024 will close at 600.000 AFU KIA, with the previous 400.000, for 2022 and 2023, and it’s a round million.
Of course this number is not attainable if Z doesn’t do the children’s crusade play soon, so…
Remember that for every KIA you get at least one permanently disabled WIA .
I think those numbers are off. What is the maximum number of mobilized manpower that Ukraine can draw from? If we assume a prewar population of 35 million, with 7 million confirmed refugees, plus let’s say ten million in Russian Ukraine, that would mean Ukraine has a total population of 18 million to draw from. Probably two-thirds of that cannot be used – too old, too young, female, invalid, vital industries, corruption, etc. So the maximum number might be 5.9 million.
You’re saying two million by the end of the year are dusted. That’s 34 percent of its potentially available manpower already gone, not just its mobilized manpower. That number might be forty percent, with another half million injured. That’s a higher attrition rate than any other modern army has ever sustained in a war. And yet, Ukraine still has the ability to counterattack, and hold territory.
So something is off. Either, Ukraine has a lot more men to draw from, the declared number of Ukrainian irrevocable casualties is wrong, the Ukrainian army is full of super soldiers, or the Russian army is grossly incompetent and weak. I suggest options one or two are the most likely. And probably option two is correct.
Even if Russian Ukraine isn’t counted in the population of Ukraine, that would leave Kiev with a pool of 9 million potential soldiers to draw from. That would be an attrition/casualty rate of 22 percent, which would be a higher rate than most modern armies could sustain.
Posted by: James M. | Sep 25 2024 23:59 utc | 718
President Putin
“In the updated version of the document, aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state, is proposed to be considered as their joint attack on the Russian Federation.”
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 25 2024 23:05 utc | 723
I think the polish already had a preview and, in a hurry, decided to change the enemy in the declaration of war…
https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-donald-tusk-declare-war-beaver-flood/
Should be a lot safer 😀
Posted by: Newbie | Sep 26 2024 0:01 utc | 719
When it comes time for Putin (or Harris, […]
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 25 2024 20:01 utc | 699
Harris is a puppet on a string.
1) She should be already president as Biden is beyond repair.
2) Blinken is the boss seconded by other neocons and he will remain the boss if Harris will “win” the fake election.
Posted by: Naive | Sep 26 2024 0:08 utc | 720
James M. | Sep 25 2024 23:59 utc | 725
Perhaps six months ago or more, in one of the MSM was an article on a visit to Ukraine by a reporter. In regional towns and villages, virtual no men were seen. The elderly +60/65, women and kids. any surviving men were in hiding.
Another from Bakhmut which is earlier. Average life expectancy for a newly mobilized was four hours.
Both accounts western pro Ukraine MSM media. It is truly mind boggling what has happened. That a nation, in just eight years from 2014 to 2022 was turned into a death cult that would destroy itself.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 26 2024 0:09 utc | 721
And just before the end of this month well hit a round 800.000 KIA for the whole SMO.
Posted by: Newbie | Sep 25 2024 22:12 utc | 715
I think the number of ukies KIA is under-estimated.
+ the WIA.
We are close to 2 millions casualties if not more.
Posted by: Naive | Sep 26 2024 0:12 utc | 722
@Peter AU1 | Thu, 26 Sep 2024 00:09:00 GMT | 728
Another from Bakhmut which is earlier. Average life expectancy for a newly mobilized was four hours.
Ouch. Yeah, that’s certainly a death cult. I think Jim Jones Peoples’ Temple cult had a longer life expectancy. Ukrainians are sent to the line with no training at all.
Posted by: James M. | Sep 26 2024 0:19 utc | 723
It is clear that England not only instigated Ukraine war but is also escalating on dead body of Ukrainians.
would expect england to be on the receiving end of any Russian reciprocation.
England needs to pay the bill now after two and a half years and that will be emence.
Less so for Russia’s own nabours, for pragmatic reasons.
Who’l shed a tear for england Anyone, anyone ?
Posted by: Sam | Sep 26 2024 1:01 utc | 724
Passerby @709: “Still, I am optimistic. I assume that Russia will do a nuclear test first. Next perhaps an attack using conventional missiles.”
Russia would be foolish to take baby steps when the time comes for nukes. All that does is guarantee escalation to Armageddon. The US will match those baby steps all the way to massive strategic exchange, all the while believing that the Russians are just bluffing.
I mean, the Russians are just bluffing, right? They won’t go all the way to End-of-Civilization just to defend their sovereignty, right? The imperial leadership is certain the Russians won’t go that far, so they will continue to escalate.
The only way to short-circuit that escalation process is if when the West is expecting Russia to take another baby step up the escalation ladder in response to the latest provocation, the Russians take a giant leap instead. Glassing Britain, for instance. A step big enough to remove all doubt that the next provocation means the end of Humanity, but which leaves the imperial core untouched so that there is still max loss ahead for the empire’s management if they don’t reconsider their commitment to escalation.
The empire might still escalate to Armageddon anyway, but they will definitely do so if the baby step approach is taken by Russia.
Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 26 2024 1:05 utc | 725
Russia certainly is NOT winning. Russia is a joke now, aways retreating. British bombs Russia with impunity and instead of killing English plotters, Russia bombs Odessa where most of population is Russian!
Russia prefers to kill slavs than the English pirate race which need to be annihilated for sake of human race.
Russia instead of waving proper war, allows herself to be distracted by grain deal – just to please Anglos. Putin is an unfit person for Presidency. Since 2013 when he should have asserted and armed Syria, he has been actively engaged in pleasing the Anglos evil 5 eyes.
The Western elites don’t really care if Ukraine ‘wins,’ they only want to bleed Russia. If Ukraine is left a shattered husk, the western elites will simply move on to other fronts to attack Russia. Maybe blockading Kalingrad, maybe more ‘color revolutions’ in the ‘Stans, etc.etc. Ukraine may be just the opening act in a much longer war.
Think about this. Both in Malvinas war of 1982 and in gulf war of 1991, British first and Americans later on, imposed 200 miles embargo no ship and no fly zone just like that so much so that even Russian foreign minister was prohibited to negotiate with Iraq for peaceful resolution by no fly zone.
Russia has had no guts to impose no fly zone even in Black Sea which Russia has a right to do especially after her prime costly assets like Moscow, or gas pipe line of kerch bridge were bombed by English cowards who jump only because england is a concubine of USA
Posted by: Sam | Sep 26 2024 1:07 utc | 726
James M@725…..the Russian army is far from incompetent and weak….a few bad apples in the command structure, but nothing insurmountable. On the other hand propaganda being what it is, maybe the option not given also opens other possibilities, that the daily clobber list does have within it, moments of propaganda……but then Russia doesn’t do propaganda…..or?
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 26 2024 1:21 utc | 727
@ 733 sam
predictable stupidity…. meanwhile i am enjoying my holiday.. back in 2 weeks..
Posted by: james | Sep 26 2024 1:25 utc | 728
New Russian nuclear policy is a peace initiative to de escalate and bring some sense to very vocal neighbours and rest of NATO
@sean the leprechaun | Thu, 26 Sep 2024 01:21:00 GMT | 734
James M@725…..the Russian army is far from incompetent and weak.
I know it’s not. Just like Ukraine doesn’t have super soldiers. The logical conclusion is that the daily clobber list is greatly exaggerated for reasons…
Posted by: James M. | Sep 26 2024 1:32 utc | 730
Posted by: Sam | Sep 26 2024 1:07 utc | 733
These are tactical withdrawals or collateral damage in the strategic fight to finish off the hegemon in a non nuclear, currency way. Feel Russia and the rest proceeding fine with end of this decade goal.
Once hegemon out of the way lot of time and opportunity to deal with its regional allies
I think the number of ukies KIA is under-estimated.
+ the WIA.
We are close to 2 millions casualties if not more.
Posted by: Naive | Sep 26 2024 0:12 utc | 729
Thought as much not little ago. But we have the RF MD numbers, putins ratio some months ago… and the apparent fact that total recruitment for AFU was apparently shy of two million (and there are still some hundreds of thousands fighting and guarding)
But as I mentioned it’ll be 800.000+800.000 next week.
And then 70.000+70.000 each month until there are no more.
November ? February if Z does the kids…
Posted by: Newbie | Sep 26 2024 1:44 utc | 732
William Gruff | Sep 26 2024 1:05 utc | 732
The woke trash and the bluff garbage. When it gets to where you have to pick up a gun, you don’t bluff. Well at least I don’t. Only ever had to pick up once before in that way. Had a bit of a problem with some people getting my stock off a place. Called the stick squad and two of them plume a couple of CIB showed up. They checked over the stock and said I had best camp there with a shotgun. The clowns in question who were known to the police and the police were trying to pin them, when they showed up agreed to my proposition which was get the fuck of your property until I got my cattle off. A win win deal. They lived and I didn’t go to jail.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 26 2024 2:05 utc | 733
In about ten days, Ukrainian soldiers wiped out at Kursk will pass 20,000. Quite a milestone, when it happens.
Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 26 2024 2:34 utc | 734
In about ten days, Ukrainian soldiers wiped out at Kursk will pass 20,000. Quite a milestone, when it happens.
Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 26 2024 2:34 utc | 741
Yes, around 350 a day (give or take) rounds to 10.000 a month.
Also the difference between the 60.000 AFU was already losing and the current 70.000.
Absolutely brilliant for an army already having trouble sustaining previous losses.
The funny thing about that is that, unless z goes for highschool meat, this risks a collapse of ukraine BEFORE the us elections.
Posted by: Newbie | Sep 26 2024 3:15 utc | 735
Given that Z has just had the escalation rug pulled out from under him, what does he have left to prosecute his part of the SMO?
I had the thought that maybe Z odes not return from this trip to Ukraine but finds one of his villas to hide out in.
How long is Z going to last if he returns to Ukraine with empty hands?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 26 2024 3:25 utc | 736
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 25 2024 22:12 utc | 714
They quoted from old Roman and Greek writings that the people in the area of Kiev (not that it existed then) marked on the map, were strong in defence and impossible to defeat. That was 2000 or so years ago.
The commonplace situation was that cities located in a forested area could fend off the Mongolian horsemen. Cities in open areas could not.
Posted by: Jmaas | Sep 26 2024 3:35 utc | 738
Ugledar
The few remaining dirt roads along the fields to the north are under fire control of the Russian Armed Forces. The Ukrainians are now trapped in Ugledar. The 58th Brigade has lost its combat capability. The 72nd has suffered losses but is still fighting.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have three options in the city:
1. Surrender with the hope of “extraction”.
2. Try to break through to Bogoyavlenka with heavy losses.
3. To die with meaningless glory
At this moment Russian army is holding around 1/4 of the city itself.
According to sources from the ground, there are pockets of resistance, but fewer. The majority of them have been annulled by the FABs and Solntsepeki.
There are many dead and wounded Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers on the streets and in the houses. They are not being evacuated. There is no more interception evacuation from Ugledar. As well as rotations.
@Slavyangrad
Posted by: Ugledar | Sep 26 2024 4:20 utc | 739
Posted by: Ugledar | Sep 26 2024 4:20 utc | 746
Couple of days ago I mentioned I expected massive surrender or a slaughter, no quick escape route since some time ago.
You mention one brigade down and another still up? That would probably mean a full brigade fit or lightly wounded (but are they lightly enough wounded to run?) and another one of dead and maimed(half of which still alive).
I’d say 2.000-3.000 don’t have a choice, too wounded to run, less than 1 in 3 able to put a modicum of fight.
Will the 1.000-2.000 fully able run, fight or surrender?
Or will the wounded frag the able bodied if they decide to fight or run?
Most of all it won’t take long and afterwards there are 10’s of kms of front that might collapse and even more that risk being taken by the wrong side… the south is mainly gone, what I see that they can try to hold might be an arc, try to hold kupiansk, Lyman, kramatorsk, pokrovsk, pokrovske, zaporizhzhya, but would mean losing what? 80% of the 2022 counter offensive?
If it breaks anywhere it’s finished.
Posted by: Newbie | Sep 26 2024 5:39 utc | 740
Jmaas | Sep 26 2024 3:35 utc | 745
That was long before the mongol horseman were in the area.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 26 2024 5:53 utc | 741
Dima says that there is heavy fighting in Ugledar. They are attacking each other with knives. Have the shovels run out?
Posted by: guest from franconia | Sep 26 2024 6:42 utc | 742
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Summary for the Morning of 26 September 2024; 06:59 (GMT+3)⚡️
🎯During the night, five series of explosions went off in Kiev and the region, with Klitschko reporting the work of air defence forces. In addition, enemy monitoring channels wrote about explosions in #IvanoFrankovsk, #Starokonstantinov, #Odessa, #Cherkassy, #Chernigov and #Vinnitsa regions. Preliminarily, the RFAF used “Geraniums”.
🔹In the #Kursk region, the RFAF ‘North’ Group of Troops reports advancing on the Korenevsky section of the front, with the AFU conducting counterattacks. In the Glushkovsky district, the enemy continues attempts to block the settlement of #Veseloye.
🔹In the #Kharkov region, both sides are engaged in #Volchansk and #Liptsy front sections, and fierce fighting continues in #Volchansk. No significant changes in the frontline over the past day.
🔹In the #Pokrovsk direction, fighting in the area of #Tsukurino, #Gornyak and #Selidovo. The RF MoD confirmed the liberation of #Ostroye, which now indicates that our troops are firmly entrenched there.
🔹The #Ugledar offensive of our troops is actively developing. Our assault groups were reported near high-rise buildings, the enemy’s landings to the northeast of #Ugledar are being burned out by UAVs with thermite mixture. The last roads out of the town have been taken under fire control of the RFAF, and there are no safe routes left for the AFU. Footage of new captured enemy militants from the direction and massive strikes on the urban area is being released.🎬👆
🔹On the #Zaporozhye front, the RFAF advanced north of #Nesteryanka and defeated a large enemy stronghold that had been held for a long time.
🔹In the #Kherson direction, the RFAF are constantly striking at enemy locations and using heavy bombs to hit fortified targets.
🛡In the #Bryansk region at night they reported the destruction of two enemy aircraft-type UAVs.
💥In #Belgorod region, in the “Yekaterinovka Farm”, Volokonovsky district, an AFU kamikaze drone attacked a GAZelle. The driver was wounded. In #Shebekino, a drone exploded in the car park of a commercial facility. #Karabanovo of Valuysky municipal district, #Konovalovo of Volokonovsky district, #Dobropolye, #Smorodino, #Bezymeno and #Novostroyevka1st of Grayvoron municipal district, #Voznesenovka, Shebekinsky urban district, were attacked.
💥In the #DPR, in #Gorlovka, as a result of artillery strikes by the AFU with cluster munitions, three civilians have been wounded.
Posted by: Down South | Sep 26 2024 6:44 utc | 743
In the Kharkov direction, there are counter-battles in the area of Glubokoe and clashes in Vovchansk.
Ukrainian troops are storming the positions of Russian forces in several areas. In the area of Glubokoe, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to reach the center of the settlement during a series of attacks. In response, the command of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched a counterattack on the flank of the advancing units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
To the northwest of the village, Russian attack aircraft managed to take part of the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Despite the advance, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have not yet managed to turn the tide of the battle for the village in their favor. Russian artillery and aviation are actively hitting the positions and communications of the Ukrainian forces in Liptsy, creating additional difficulties for the Ukrainian group here.
Ukrainian units are also attacking the positions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Staritsa. The Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to advance west of the Kogutovo tract and take several strongholds in this area.
Yesterday, the Main Intelligence Directorate occupied the aggregate plant in the center of Vovchansk. Given the high degree of ruination of the industrial zone and the lack of established crossings over the Vovchya, it is likely that Ukrainian units will face supply problems when holding the territory of the enterprise. In addition, individual groups of Ukrainian infantry are penetrating further north, in the area of Shevchenko Street. Today, Vovchansk is mostly ruins, the holding of which is costly for both sides.
And to the east of Vovchansk, Russian troops have established control over the northwestern outskirts of Tykhoye. The center of the village is currently in the “gray zone”. Clashes are also taking place in the vicinity of the settlement near the Russian Armed Forces, probably the goal is to take the Ukrainian forces defending it into semi-encirclement.
https://t.me/the_military_analytics/20977
In the Ugledar direction, the assault on Ugledar by Russian units continues.
The Russian Armed Forces have advanced in the eastern part of the city and the remaining units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are gradually finding themselves trapped there. The Ukrainian garrison is trying to dislodge units of the Russian 29th Army on the southeastern flank of Ugledar. At night, from the side of Bogoyavlenka, from the western part of Ugledar, a Ukrainian reserve of up to a platoon in an infantry fighting vehicle tried to break through, but the attempt was unsuccessful.
The few remaining dirt roads along the plantings to the north are under fire control of Russian troops. The Ukrainian military is now trapped in Ugledar and will not be able to leave without losses. At the same time, the 58th Brigade is heavily weakened, and the 72nd also suffered losses.
https://t.me/the_military_analytics/20980
Posted by: Down South | Sep 26 2024 6:49 utc | 744
Our source reports that the Ukrainian crisis is now at the most important fork in the road for the third time. Almost the same as it was in January-February 2022, when it was still possible to save the situation and implement the Minsk agreements through the Normandy format, and as it was in the spring of 2022 in Istanbul, where it was possible to stop the war, deaths and devastation.
Now history is repeating itself again.
Two development paths:
1. The situation goes into a peace case and Biden forces Zelensky to make peace according to the “Korean scenario”. Taking away Trump’s main trump card in the election race. He himself packs everything up, as Ukraine remained, Putin’s plan failed and NATO became stronger. He already said something similar speaking at the UN.
2. The war flares up with renewed vigor. Kyiv receives new credit lines and weapons. We are on the verge of nuclear strikes (TNW) on Ukraine. People are fleeing the country en masse, etc.
The most extensive behind-the-scenes negotiations in the last year and a half are currently underway.
Zelensky’s Kursk adventure will lead to the loss of Ukraine’s economic power.
With the loss of Pokrovsk, the country will lose 2/3 of its metallurgy
President of Ukrmetallurgprom Alexander Kalenkov said that the seizure of Pokrovsk by the Russian Federation will deprive Ukraine of its only controlled mine producing coking coal (Krasnoarmeyskaya-Zapadnaya):
“Over two years, we have smelted 6-6.5 million tons of steel, this year we can reach 7.5 million tons. In the event of the loss of Pokrovsk, this will be 2-3 million tons.”
https://t.me/rezident_ua/24435
Everyone already understands that Zelensky’s winning plan has become another failure of the President’s Office on the international track, everyone perfectly understood the reaction of the USA, but packed the drafts into one document.
A brief summary of Zelepsky’s trip to the USA can be summed up now, without leaking information from the Ukrainian delegation: we will fight to the last Ukrainian, NATO will not accept us, we will be given money on credit for existence, missile strikes will not be allowed.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/24436
Posted by: Down South | Sep 26 2024 6:53 utc | 745
That would be an attrition/casualty rate of 22 percent, which would be a higher rate than most modern armies could sustain.
Posted by: James M. | Sep 25 2024 23:59 utc | 725
Also, don’t forget a not insignificant merc presence.
Regardless, IMHO they ARE on the verge of collapse. Could literally happen any time. The surrenders, desertions, etc. are steadily increasing and could turn to a flood literally any day. The RF is dropping surrender instructions from drones before shelling AFU positions; they wouldn’t bother if it wasn’t effective.
Z’s “victory plan” tour was a last desperate bid to save his own skin and it’s already failed.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Sep 26 2024 6:56 utc | 746
Russian nuclear policy is to weak, too cautious.
The West won’t respect it and is going to escalate, very soon.
Posted by: vargas | Sep 26 2024 6:56 utc | 747
Many thanks to Down South for his tireless work, which is greatly appreciated.
Posted by: guest from franconia | Sep 26 2024 7:10 utc | 748
ayden
@squatsons
Explosions in Khmelnytskyi again, at least 4 Kinzhals have struck the base where the last F-16 and pilot was likely lost.
https://x.com/squatsons/status/1839213565116334443
I don’t remember whether it was three or four Kinzhals last time. Two F16 pilots were killed likely in that strike as the one that hit a drone then was shot with a patriot and whatever else the clowns could dream up – the US said it wasn’t hit with a patriot and wouldn’t agree with anything the Kiev clowns said’
Two pilots so likely two F16’s rather than one. If they launched Kinzhals again, it most likely means they spotted an F16 or two
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 26 2024 8:25 utc | 749
The Times: John Healey, the defence secretary, suggested that Ukraine was also running out of troops to send to the west for training. He told a fringe event at the Labour conference earlier this week that the “biggest constraint” in training Ukrainians was “Ukraine providing the personnel in order to be trained”.
https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1839213887440212021
A screen shot of the relevant section at the link.
There’s a sign in blocker at the times I cant get past to quote a bigger piece of that section.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/ukraine-western-allies-almost-nothing-left-weapon-stockpiles-z5z5v0z5j
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 26 2024 8:38 utc | 750
TJandTheBear | Sep 26 2024 8:28 utc | 760
Yeah. Like the saying goes, pay peanuts and get monkeys.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 26 2024 8:39 utc | 751
Apparently raining Kizhals in Ukraine. Many airfields getting hit. After what has occurred, I have to wonder a bit if CIA director Burns of thee neyt means nyet wikileaks cable passed over a targeting list.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 26 2024 8:46 utc | 752
@ Peter AU1 | Sep 26 2024 0:09 utc | 728
It is truly mind boggling what has happened. That a nation, in just eight years from 2014 to 2022 was turned into a death cult that would destroy itself.
An interesting thought. Take a close look at the Jonestown massacre (Guyana, 1978) and then multiply by a factor of around ten thousand.
Posted by: Singleton | Sep 26 2024 8:53 utc | 753
The West won’t respect it and is going to escalate, very soon.
Posted by: vargas | Sep 26 2024 6:56 utc | 755
??? Your evidence / credible sources or mere opining? ( which is fine, guesses is all we have usually)
Posted by: Escobar | Sep 26 2024 7:12 utc | 757
Well, they have been escalating all the time. It is a pure inductive logic.
Posted by: vargas | Sep 26 2024 8:54 utc | 754
This in an interesting report on the sound of the Kinzhals.
MiG-31Ks launched Kinzhal (Dagger) missiles…
Ukr report:
💥 The sounds of explosions that you could hear in Kyiv region and Zhytomyr region – these are “Daggers” entered the lower layers of the atmosphere.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 26 2024 9:02 utc | 755
It is a pure inductive logic.
Posted by: vargas | Sep 26 2024 8:54 utc | 765
Pure idiotic logic.
Like a broken clock, you may be correct, as the Empire of Lies politicians that you’re trolling for are as demented, imbecilic and idiotic as your posts.
We know that you like posting (daft) questions. How are your friends and family? Why don’t you piss off and spend some time with them like you promised?
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Sep 26 2024 9:18 utc | 756
🇷🇺🇺🇦 About an hour ago, Russian forces delivered another strike on the Starokostiantyniv airfield in the Khmilnytskyi Region – this time they fired no less than four aeroballistic Kinzhal missiles at the target.
The facility serves as one of the main basing locations for the American F-16 fighters that have been transferred. This is largely due to the presence of Soviet-era concrete aircraft shelters there, which provide better concealment and protection for the planes. It is precisely this that led to the use of Kinzhals to strike the target.
Despite reports of the destruction of several F-16s at Starokostiantyniv, the effectiveness of the raid can only be assessed after the appearance of satellite imagery and other evidence. After all, the loss of such assets is unlikely to go unnoticed in the local and Western media.
Nevertheless, the new strike on the airfield indicates a consistent effort to destroy at least the infrastructure for basing American fighters. The number of Soviet-era concrete shelters at Ukrainian airfields is limited, and as they are destroyed, it will become much more difficult to hide the F-16s.
https://t.me/rybar_in_english/17978
Posted by: Down South | Sep 26 2024 9:28 utc | 757
Posted by: GEORGE M CHAMBERLAIN | Sep 25 2024 19:52 utc | 698
Posted by: guest from franconia | Sep 26 2024 7:10 utc | 756
No problem
Posted by: Down South | Sep 26 2024 9:39 utc | 758
Posted by: Escobar | Sep 26 2024 9:35 utc | 769
It’s a badge of honour for me to make it on to your imaginary list. Quit crying. This is not a therapy centre for upset trolls.
Your comment sticking up for imbecilic persona Nafo troll Vargas sums you up – confused – you are unable to find one single post where I have posted a comment on military matters.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Sep 26 2024 10:04 utc | 759
Russia would be foolish to take baby steps when the time comes for nukes. All that does is guarantee escalation to Armageddon. The US will match those baby steps all the way to massive strategic exchange, all the while believing that the Russians are just bluffing.
Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 26 2024 1:05 utc | 732
The above is also a description of what the US has been doing all the time during this SMO – or, viewed on a larger scale, during all the time since 1945. The destruction of Russia was always intended. During the years preceding the arrival of the first Soviet nuclear bomb in 1949, they were planning on wiping Russia off the map using nuclear bombs delivered by aircraft – Operation Dropshot – and all they were still waiting for was a way to overcome the Soviet air defenses.
The US elites’ state of mind is beyond just lunacy – their plan of subjugating humanity as a whole is thoroughly crafted, and what we see as being implemented now are the first stages of that plan. For a likely continuation, see this
https://rtde.team/europa/220467-daily-mail-zu-kriegsvorbereitungen-nato/
piece in the Daily Mail.
At the receiving end of such planning, I don’t know what to do, if I was in Putin’s shoes. I have just been watching in disbelief this amount of organized evil unfold. A small number of people centered in DC is pushing humanity to the brink of extinction. W. Gruff may be right in his analysis of the nuclear stage, as quoted above.
Posted by: grunzt | Sep 26 2024 10:26 utc | 760
I don’t know what to do, if I was in Putin’s shoes.
Posted by: grunzt | Sep 26 2024 10:26 utc | 774
He’s doing exactly what he should. The Russians are the only adults in the room so they have to patiently explain to the children what happens to them when they overstep their boundaries… and spank them when they do.
The children have been spanked repeatedly but being the evil spoiled children that they are they just keep pushing. Even the worst children don’t want to get entirely tossed out on their ass therefore they’ll scream and yell and threaten but they won’t go THERE.
Putin will calmly keep kicking the West’s ass conventionally. The west cannot compete and cannot go nuclear without cutting their own throats, therefore the screaming and yelling and threatening will continue until Ukraine is entirely Russian again.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Sep 26 2024 10:42 utc | 761
— GEROMAN — time will tell – 👀 —
@GeromanAT
Ukrainian sources report that the Ukrainian Air Force lost four F-16s as a result of the surprise attack.
No confirmation so far.
If the earlier reports on large numbers of Kinzhals were launched, most at airfields, then it is likely they got a number of F16’s
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 26 2024 10:45 utc | 762
If the earlier reports on large numbers of Kinzhals were launched, most at airfields, then it is likely they got a number of F16’s
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 26 2024 10:45 utc | 777
That’s good, let’s hope it’s true. How many are left? Ten, twelve?
Posted by: James M. | Sep 26 2024 10:53 utc | 763
That’s good, let’s hope it’s true. How many are left? Ten, twelve?
Posted by: James M. | Sep 26 2024 10:53 utc | 768
Wasn’t there only 6 to start with? Sightings are rare as it is.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Sep 26 2024 11:03 utc | 764
Wasn’t there only 6 to start with? Sightings are rare as it is.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Sep 26 2024 11:03 utc | 769
I thought there were sixteen, but maybe I’m mistaken.
Posted by: James M. | Sep 26 2024 12:53 utc | 765
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Sep 26 2024 11:03 utc | 769
#########
Schrodinger’s F16s are simultaneously everywhere and nowhere at once.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 26 2024 13:58 utc | 766
Posted by: guest from franconia | Sep 26 2024 6:42 utc | 747
He means Zinzhals, surely?
Posted by: Milites | Sep 26 2024 17:27 utc | 767