News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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September 22, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-226
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From the Military Summary and Weeb Union updates it looks like the Russian regrouping after the movement of some of the Ukrainian forces from Kursk etc. back to the Donetsk front ended a few days ago.
– Breaking though west of Ugledar to drive the final surrounding of this massively fortified thorn in the south eastern corner
– Close to closing the Nevelske pocket via the Hyrnik pincer and the pincer driving west to Kurakhove
– Pincers from north and south to enclose Selydove rather than have to storm it
– New gains west of Novorhodivka
– Big gain west of Toretsk and within the major built up area at the centre of Toretsk
– Taking all of Makiivka and Nevs’ke on the Zherebets River
– Getting very close to the Oskil River south of Kupyansk
Then add in the wakening up of the southern front around Urozhaine and Robotyne. Then add the Russian counter-offensive south of Kursk. The Ukrainian front is crumbling once again, and the Russians are gaining mobility again. It will be an eventful few weeks before the rains arrive.
Ukraine Weekly Update, 20th Sept 2024: May be Useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-006
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Sep 21 2024 18:07 utc | 77
…………………………………….
Dr Campbell,
As said before, these brief summaries of the week’s events are brilliant. Some might cavil at the obviously contemptuous view taken of the activities of the current UK government – but since I also find HMG’s work at present contemptible, I don’t.
Elsewhere an interview with Doctorow was linked to:-
https://www.youtube.com/live/4hokL8dX5iQ
Thought I’d stick my neck out and advance the view that neither the Ukrainian war nor the war in the ME will lead to wider hostilities. Apart from the fact that the Western powers are pretty well fresh out of weapons, and those we have not as suitable as would be required, I don’t believe the US wants to see these wars taken that much further:-
“Doctorow can go off the deep end sometimes but not this time. He makes a point (very early on in the video linked to) that I have not seen made elsewhere.
Any fool can give a proxy fancy missiles. But the targeting and routing of those missiles is beyond the capability of most.
For example, we in the UK are dependent on American ISR if the Storm Shadows are to be used effectively. Long range naval or aerial drone attacks similarly need American ISR if they are to evade Russian AD or other defensive measures, let alone the fact that Western Intel is probably needed to identify useful targets. From the little I’ve read on the subject Google Maps doesn’t cut it.
Even more so in the case of the Houthis. Doctorow makes the point that, never mind whether they have the expertise to even assemble “hypersonic” missiles without assistance, the Houthis do not have satellites up that can enable target identification and probably routing. If the Iranians do, it’s only with Russian assistance.
The list of countries that can do that is very short and Russia’s one of them. So it’s probably that in the Houthi missile attack we’re looking at an “asymmetrical response” of the sort all talk about.
In the Ukrainian case the Russians are anxious to keep the Ukrainian war local. If they decided to let it spread to Europe the range of asymmetrical responses at their disposal is very great. The poorly shielded Russian ammunition dump that’s just been droned has its counterpart in the UK and probably in the other European countries. Or Doctorow mentions the undersea cables. Or if we manage to hit one of their NPP’s and damage it significantly – that’s been tried for some time now – it’s easy enough for the Russians to hit one of ours.
Any amount of that type of response is possible before it would escalate to nuclear. In any case, apart from the Washington hotheads sounding off and that’s just noise, Washington has made it clear that it’s not prepared to risk nuclear if the Europeans themselves push it too far and invite retaliatory attacks.
Does that not also apply in the Israeli case? Washington, I believe, really doesn’t want a general ME war, let alone one where it would be compelled to use nuclear. Electoral pressures ensure that both Trump and Biden/Harris must supply arms and financial assistance to Israel, as do the European countries, but they don’t want it to go further than that.
The Ukrainians and the Europeans, and the Israelis, would like to see some sort of conflict escalation that would trigger forceful and direct US involvement in the respective conflicts. I don’t think they’re going to get it.
Therefore Netanyahu, Zelensky, and Scholz/Macron/Starmer have come to the end of the road. They can push their respective conflicts no further without the US coming in in force – and I think Washington won’t.
Can’t, in fact. Colonel Lang laid down the rules on that some time ago and they still hold. Russia and the US will not fight each other directly. Similarly, the US does not wish to see the Israeli conflict spreading to a full war in the ME.
So both the Europeans and the Israelis are, as said before, like sheep stuck in a bramble patch. Difficult for them to retreat – the loss of face for the politicians would be very great. Impossible for them to intensify the conflict – that can’t be done without getting the US to come in deeper and it seems that can’t happen.
Tragic that a whole lot more people are going to get killed or injured before the politicians reluctantly accept that conclusion. But the politicians have bitten off more than they can chew in both cases so they’ll have to accept it eventually.”
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Am further confirmed in my belief by the section of your summary above:-
”
For a while, a number of commentators have been talking about a divide between the Pentagon on the one hand and the Biden Administration on the other. This could be an expression of that. The Pentagon and the army must know that they are in no fit state to fight a war against Russia but even if they were, they know the risk of escalation to a nuclear conflict is quite high. They have a grasp on reality that the neo-cons/neo libs don’t possess.
“If a ‘palace coup’ has indeed been carried out then Krainer believes this could involve a different relationship with Israel: a relationship in which the US will refuse to back Israel if they escalate – as they are now doing. Krainer also believes that the Pentagon and their counterparts in the Kremlin are talking to each other. Which is hopeful, if true. Only time will tell whether Israel commits ground troops, thereby defying the US. This matter is complicated by the fact that Netanyahu’s personal survival is at stake. The parallels between this and the Ukraine conflict are worthy of some analysis.”
Posted by: English Outsider | Sep 22 2024 13:54 utc | 2
Zero Hedge reports that overnight, there were “several more successful strikes on Russian ammo depots” well inside Russia. These strikes are planned and carried out by the US and NATO. Only with the help of US aerial and satellite reconnaissance can the targets- and the paths to the targets – be selected.
I don’t think the crazies have any intention of ending their provocations against Russia, which continue to escalate. Biden was fuming when he had to tell Starmer that the US would not go along with the UK requests for missile strikes in Russia. How long before our Presidementia changes what is left of his mind?
Posted by: Perimetr | Sep 22 2024 14:03 utc | 3
The UK Guardian reporting that the Black UK Foreign Secretary – whose own family were the victims of British Imperialism – has no problems in carrying out the British Colonialists demands now.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/22/lammy-urges-fortitude-over-ukraine-using-storm-shadow-missiles-in-russia
Posted by: Night Tripper | Sep 22 2024 14:05 utc | 4
ZH is trash. Sounds like they’re talking about events that happened 2-3 days ago. There is a reason it is banned here.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Sep 22 2024 14:13 utc | 5
@Posted by: Night Tripper | Sep 22 2024 14:05 utc | 4
Malcolm X had a catchy phrase for such traitors, two words, first word House
ZH sold out to Gooble years ago.
Repeating Warmongering trash every day. Ownership/control has changed in the background.
The Jerry Rubin becomes Dave Rubin.
Posted by: kupkee | Sep 22 2024 14:19 utc | 7
Posted by: English Outsider | Sep 22 2024 13:54 utc | 2
It is very flattering to receive such praise and to have lines quotes from my work. Many thanks.
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Sep 22 2024 14:25 utc | 8
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Sep 22 2024 14:13 utc | 6
++++++++++++++
Agree. It is no longer what it used to be and it has had a complete 180 degrees from anti to pro Zionist. They either are getting the pressure from them or they’ve been brived or blackmailed. You can choose.
Posted by: AI | Sep 22 2024 14:33 utc | 9
It is important to use proper maps when you are bombing another country.
Otherwise, you might “accidentally” bomb the Chinese embassy, the way the US did in 1999.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Sep 22 2024 14:51 utc | 10
Posted by: wagelaborer | Sep 22 2024 14:51 utc | 14
As with Israel’s excesses, don’t be surprised, given the long, national memory of China, that the favor is returned.
Posted by: kupkee | Sep 22 2024 14:57 utc | 11
RS-28 Sarmat has already been tested successfully, which implies a sound design and engine. Of course, anything can go wrong.
Keeping things in context. With British submarine launched missiles suffering high failure rates and low skill crews operating their subs, and US Sentinel ICBM and Ohio SSBN replacement sub far over budget, delayed and pushed into far next decade (current projection), and other Russian missiles being very reliable, there is little to worry about deterrence against Anglo Saxons.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 22 2024 15:01 utc | 12
#2 English Outsider
The part where you mentioned the candidates and whether or not there might be a difference in their approach(es) to the ongoing wars. There won’t. Elections are a joke in America anymore: https://folkpotpourri.com/election-or-selection-there-is-a-monumental-difference/
Posted by: Ozark Grandpa | Sep 22 2024 15:05 utc | 13
Posted by: AI | Sep 22 2024 14:33 utc | 10
Agree. It is no longer what it used to be and it has had a complete 180 degrees from anti to pro Zionist.
Baerbutts the German (ahem) Foreign Munsster says it is 360 degrees.
Posted by: Angelo | Sep 22 2024 15:23 utc | 14
The ultra low drone cruise missle ukraine is using is being quite effective as I predicted. More ammo dumps are exploding I’m Russia.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 22 2024 15:29 utc | 15
“Compelled” is a strange word that excuses or explains but never justifies. We were residents of a small town taken over by an influx of law enforcement when the criminal justice center (new jail) was built. It is strange that coercive hypnosis is common but never admitted to. In my case, I recall the words…”it would have been somebody else if it hadn’t been us.” Our $50 thou home loan surprised everyone by making a completely livable house, and we were deprived of the right to live in our home. We had just made middle class and were ousted to low, 45 years later, the town still fears my memory. Everything imaginable has been done to force me to sue, children harmed, futures destroyed, husband murdered, yes, murdered!
I read the propaganda against Putin, think of the massive push he endures, how the planned aggression in the Middle East is becoming stronger every day, and wonder if there is a stopping point. The exploding electronics after what I thought would never happen, the Gaza extinction; I wonder if Putin will succumb to action. Can he keep the Union complacent and economically sound? Can he keep this baiting to a small Pandora’s box while the rest of the country continues? Can the Brics offer respite and a way forward? Will our meteorite visitor be enough news to derail the baiting? The US Presidential election has always been used to sidetrack the public and to hide actions. Will the new President conveniently deny responsibility for a planned war? Is our only salvation a restart courtesy of a flaring from our planetary neighborhood? If researchers are correct, a planetary flare existed within recorded memory. Is this planned tragedy of war to take place during a cosmic cover up?
Posted by: katesisco | Sep 22 2024 16:00 utc | 17
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 22 2024 15:29 utc | 15
#########
As Simplicious wrote recently, hitting these ammo dumps is a tiny pinprick relative to daily ammunition consumption by the Russian military.
I am sure the NAFO Bros are excited about it.
Remember when they were excited about Kursk 2 weeks ago?
I am old enough to remember when the Ghost of Kiev inspired NAFO. LOL
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 22 2024 16:12 utc | 18
@18 lovedonbass
Your absolutely right. Russia has so many bombs and missles they’ve got overflow in a lot of places. In terms of percentages of arms destroyed its insignificant.
But that’s not the goal it’s chaos for Russian civilians is what he wants and gets with these forced evaluations and road closures.
Ukraine has specifically said they are targeting civilians to encourage dissent in Russia. It’s pure terrorism, but hey I think we’ve moved past that now.
I rate the operation modestly successful and it’s not done yet. I predict it will be a problem for a while until Russia shoots everything off to reduce the arsenal sizes.
Not really great for ukraine though thousands of more glide bombs isn’t easy .in fact it’s down right attritional.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 22 2024 16:36 utc | 19
“Zero Hedge reports that overnight, there were “several more successful strikes on Russian ammo depots” well inside Russia. These strikes are planned and carried out by the US and NATO. Only with the help of US aerial and satellite reconnaissance can the targets- and the paths to the targets – be selected.”
Posted by: Perimetr | Sep 22 2024 14:03 utc | 3
…………………..
Yes. There has for some time been a steady drip of information coming out, much of it confirmed in the Western press, to that effect. Further references to that from “Ossi” just recently:-
“The fact that Russia’s claim is true has been known since the leaked telephone conversation between the German Air Force generals at the latest. In the conversation, they spoke in great detail about the fact that Ukraine cannot use the cruise missiles itself, but that NATO soldiers do. Just one example from the conversation:
“So when it comes to doing mission planning, for example, I know how the English do it, they do it completely in reachback.”
But there is another problem, which the British Times pointed out in passing in an article a few days ago:
“The missiles are not flying directly at their target, defense officials say: They are effectively guided “through the eye of a needle” using GPS and terrain map data. “You could certainly fire them single-handedly, but they probably wouldn’t survive in the contested, electronically jammed environment the Russians are in,” said a British defense source. “Russian electronic warfare has rendered GPS useless. They jam it. So you have to use another data set that is in American possession instead.” This is classified, but probably has to do with the capabilities of ground maps.”
It’s all about ground maps
The fact that Russian electronic warfare has rendered GPS useless is indeed a problem for the West. The second option, besides GPS, to maneuver a missile to its target is precise ground maps that the missile can use to navigate. And according to the British Times, only the USA has such detailed ground maps of Russia.
However, that is not true.
On September 30, 20On 21, the “Welt” newspaper reported on a tender from the Bundeswehr under the headline “Centimeter-accurate geodata – these maps from the Bundeswehr identify Putin’s vast empire more precisely than ever before”:
“According to information from WELT AM SONNTAG, the Bundeswehr has awarded a contract to print highly accurate hiking maps of Russia on a military scale. The maps are supposed to show more than just streets, paths and houses. The Bundeswehr itself does not want to comment on this information. However, a tender platform provides more clarity: “The project in question deals with the production and delivery of vector data in high resolution – usually on a scale of 1:50,000 – in the production area of Russia.” (…) The contract for the terrain data collection that has now been awarded has also already been awarded. According to the tender data, the contractor is Arge VEHA GbR.”
This is why Kiev wants the Taurus
This means that in addition to the USA, Germany also has the necessary ground maps to guide a cruise missile to targets deep in the Russian hinterland, even without GPS. It can be assumed that one of the reasons why Chancellor Scholz, at least so far, is so stubbornly opposed to the delivery of the Taurus to Kiev is that then Bundeswehr soldiers would not only have to program the missiles, but they would also do so on the basis of information that the Bundeswehr apparently has exclusive access to in Europe.
And Germany also appears to be unwilling to share these ground maps with the British or French so that they can use them for their Storm Shadows or SCALPs. It is unlikely that the USA will share such exclusive information with anyone.
Posted by: ossi | Sep 22 2024 7:08 utc | 243
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/09/ukraine-zelinskis-victory-plan-charade/comments/page/3/#comments
This must also apply to drones, certainly the naval drones out of Odessa. The naval drones attacking the pipeline guard ships, for instance, must have needed real time information supplied by Western ISR to be able to make those attacks. Not only drones. HIMARS and ATACMS also need targeting information that it is not possible for the Ukrainians to input independently. We have, in fact, been attacking Russian territory and Russian positions directly from the early stages of the war, using Ukrainian personnel to do little more than press the button, if that.
The Russians know all this and from Putin’s speeches and interviews have known it for some time. As long as the attacks are pinprick attacks they’ll ride them: they do not want this war to escalate. But from what they’ve said they respond with asymmetric attacks and, if the pinprick attacks get too bothersome, have left open the possibility that they might respond with direct missile attacks within the EU or the UK.
That Russian block on significant escalatory measures from the Europeans, and the reluctance of the US to get drawn into an escalatory spiral, accounts for the hothead statements coming out from the EU and the UK politicians. It’s very easy to make wild demands and threats when they know those threats can never be carried into effect.
Posted by: English Outsider | Sep 22 2024 16:36 utc | 20
Posted by: kupkee | Sep 22 2024 14:57 utc | 11
###############
Revenge is a very emotionally immature thing.
The Chinese are more inclined to believe that if one waits long enough on a river’s shore, the bodies of their enemies will (inevitably) come floating by.
Remember, time is undefeated. The Zionists will get whatever they have coming for them, and China won’t have to lift a finger to achieve it.
It is a very secular/materialist view that we have to force reality to conform to our desires and emotional states. That we “create” reality because we’re the highest form of life we can imagine. A denial of forces, spectrums, and energies beyond our senses. That what we don’t experience does not (cannot!) exist.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 22 2024 16:38 utc | 21
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 22 2024 16:36 utc | 19
###########
Zelensky is an actor working for psychopaths, I don’t feel there is much profit in accounting for his aims. Crazy and desperate people will believe and hope for all manner of things.
Russian civilization is very mentally tough, and not easily scared. That Zelensky is trying to scare Russians is similar to the delusion that the Russian people will force Putin out due to incompetence or weakness, and then there will be a McDonalds on every Moscow city block.
A failure to understand an opponent is a sure way to lose to that opponent.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 22 2024 16:49 utc | 22
In an op-ed published in The Spectator on Saturday – ex-UK PM Boris Johnson said that – its over for Russia – and that Ukraine will have Nato membership – and a trillion dollars to rebuild. Johnson added that we must abandon – any idea of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
Johnson – is also for allowing the Neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine – to use Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles – to strike deep into Russia.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Sep 22 2024 17:04 utc | 23
@lovedonbass
Re: crazy people and their aims.
Your wrong, psychopaths have clearly articulated aims and plans to achieve them. They aren’t crazy but their priorities are weird.
Therefore it is absolutely essential to understand their goals.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 22 2024 17:14 utc | 24
Electoral pressures ensure that both Trump and Biden/Harris must supply arms and financial assistance to Israel,
Posted by: English Outsider | Sep 22 2024 13:54 utc | 2
Your post is generally excellent, but this statement is absurd. American voters do not want the US to give arms and financial assistance to Israel, let alone engage in war on their behalf. The lobbies, the donor class, and the deep state all have significant factions that favor supporting genocide, and so far they continue to prevail, but the American people in general do not.
Bowing to AIPAC because they provide campaign contributions is just bullshit. The politicians GIVE Israel the money to bribe them with. They could as easily give it to someone else to bribe them with.
Israel does have a certain level of autonomy- the Pentagon does not directly command its troops. However, on a strategic level, they can only do what the US allows them to, because a month without funding and weapons will end them.
Posted by: Honzo | Sep 22 2024 17:36 utc | 25
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 22 2024 17:14 utc | 24
Western goals are pretty clear.
What is important is how they think to reach them and, being psycho, how far they will go.
If you play poker, your goal is clearly to win the pot, but you must have a good hand and/or a strict game.
Keep doubling down with a bad hand will not win you the pot.
Posted by: Mario | Sep 22 2024 17:42 utc | 26
This is what the ‘Western upper-crust’ read – Project Syndicate
Achieving Peace Through Strength in Ukraine
Sep 17, 2024
Anders Fogh Rasmussen and Andriy Yermak
To secure a lasting peace, Ukraine’s allies must make Vladimir Putin understand that he cannot dictate the terms. Guaranteeing Ukraine’s security will require increased military support, a clear path to NATO membership, and international support for President Volodymyr Zelensky’s peace plan.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/western-allies-must-show-long-term-commitment-to-ukraine-security-by-anders-fogh-rasmussen-and-andriy-yermak-2024-09
Posted by: Don Firineach | Sep 22 2024 17:44 utc | 27
“In an op-ed published in The Spectator on Saturday – ex-UK PM Boris Johnson said that – its over for Russia – and that Ukraine will have Nato membership – and a trillion dollars to rebuild. Johnson added that we must abandon – any idea of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
Johnson – is also for allowing the Neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine – to use Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles – to strike deep into Russia.”
Ha ha, BOJO must be about the most stupid politicians to be found still breathing. He has a degree in ancient Greek, I believe, and has fathered about 7 kids, most out of wedlock.
Why anyone would listen to him is beyond me. He is a contemptible buffoon.
Posted by: g wiltek | Sep 22 2024 17:46 utc | 28
@mario
Re: poker analogies
I’m not seeing doubling down. I’m seeing lots of new effective attack strategies on both sides.
Pagers, drones and missles and more yet to be released. Adapting quickly is key.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 22 2024 17:51 utc | 29
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 22 2024 16:38 utc | 21
“Revenge is a very emotionally immature thing.”
That’s one of the most silly statements I have ever heard you make. Revenge is understandable, logical and it works. If you hit a bully back it will stop hitting you if you’re stronger.
The Chinese are more inclined to believe that if one waits long enough on a river’s shore, the bodies of their enemies will (inevitably) come floating by. […] It is a very secular/materialist view that we have to force reality to conform to our desires and emotional states. That we “create” reality because we’re the highest form of life we can imagine. A denial of forces, spectrums, and energies beyond our senses. That what we don’t experience does not (cannot!) exist.
And then, as you’re wanton to do, you venture into the bizarre realms of the metaphysics.
Posted by: Tichy | Sep 22 2024 18:03 utc | 30
That’s one of the most silly statements I have ever heard you make. Revenge is understandable, logical and it works. If you hit a bully back it will stop hitting you if you’re stronger.
Posted by: Tichy | Sep 22 2024 18:03 utc | 30
#######
It wounds me that you have not taken note of my many other silly statements.
You’re conflating self-defense with revenge. A very typically Western mistake. Western narratives always portray the fire bombings and nukings as necessary and noble mass murders.
Listen to enough Western history, it’s been one endless episode of Light over Dark. Such is life inside of the Garden. The self-delusion and lack of self-awareness are how ideas like Zionism and racial exceptionalism build their foundations.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 22 2024 18:14 utc | 31
Neofeudalfuture 24, lovedonbass
“understand their goals…”
A signature of Angloworld and western states in wars is to keep their goals undefined, for a reason.
It is worth remembering the words of Siegfried Sassoon, soldier and anti-war poet of WW1, in his resignation letter:
“I am writing you this private letter with the greatest possible regret. I must inform you that it is my intention to refuse to perform any further military duties. I am doing this as a protest against the policies of the government in prolonging the war by failing to state their conditions for peace. I have written a statement of my reasons of which I enclose a copy.
I am making this statement as an act of wilful defiance of military authority because I believe the war is being deliberately prolonged by those who have the power to end it. I am a soldier, convinced that I am acting in behalf of soldiers. I believe that the war I entered as a war of defence and liberation has now become a war of aggression and conquest. I believe that the purpose for which I and my fellow soldiers entered upon this war should have been so clearly stated as to have made it impossible to change them. And, that had this been done, the object that actuated us would now be attainable by negotiation. I have seen and endured the sufferings of the troops, and I can no longer be a party to prolong these sufferings for ends which I believe to be evil and unjust.
I am not protesting against the conduct of the war, but against the political errors and insincerities for which the fighting men are being sacrificed. On behalf of those who are suffering now I make this protest against the deception which is being practiced upon them.
Also, I believe it may help to destroy the callous complacency with which the majority of those at home regard the continuance of agonies which they do not share, and which they do not have enough imagination to realise.
What I feel cannot be talked away or soothed into silence. Too many have died. Too much has been destroyed.”
Siegfried Sassoon, 1916.
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Sep 22 2024 18:14 utc | 32
g wiltek @ 28
Ha ha, BOJO must be about the most stupid politicians to be found still breathing.
You should undervalue the man but you shouldn’t undervalue his roll, he’s the neocon John The Baptist, an evangelist for the cause and when he talks it’s not a cry in the wilderness but words from a higher power. He’s not crazy but wiley, that’s the shtick that draws people inside the revival tent, listen to the words, he’s telling you it’s about to get much bigger, much nastier, and very much more dangerous. Listen to the sermon not the haircut.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 22 2024 18:18 utc | 33
Re attacks on ammo dumps, I made a comment elsewhere that we lack information to put into context. For example in WW2 a US armoured division (in attack) used c500 tons of ammo per day (mainly artillery shells), and recently Lavrov (I think) said Russia was expending c10,000 tons of ammo per day on the [SMO]. So even if NATO is participating/leading strikes on Russian ammo stores, is the damage material? Or is it PR, or a ruse to distract AD from the critical front? I don’t know. 4 strikes in less than a week sounds serious but may not be. And I would find it difficult to believe that Russia had not factored this loss in in some way. It seems to me this is another embarassment, a provocation and escalation but probably not militarily serious. The attacks may well force Russia to adapt but surely does not impact the overall trajectory of events? I suspect we will now be subject to the narrative that long range strikes into Russia proper will not have a blow back on NATO and is the route to “victory”. Good luck with that, if so.
Posted by: marcjf | Sep 22 2024 18:23 utc | 34
“g wiltek @ 28
Ha ha, BOJO must be about the most stupid politicians to be found still breathing.”
Bojo is saying idiotic things cause that’s how the man gets paid.
The ideas are stupid, the motivation is certainly not.
🔥 Ugledar
The gradual, step-by-step advance of the Russian Armed Forces on the Ugledar section of the front is beginning to bear fruit.
The Ugledar section has been “standing” since 2022, as it had an almost ideal location for defense. High-rise buildings, protected on the flanks by water obstacles and waste heaps, became the key edge of the defense. Several frontal attacks by the Russian Armed Forces with the massive use of armored vehicles ended in complete failure back in 2022-2023.
However, the transfer of units that had long been defending the area to Selidovo gave the Russian Armed Forces the opportunity to intensify the offensive. This time, instead of frontal attacks, they began to bypass Ugledar, using the mastered tactics of small cauldrons.
At the moment, the Russian Armed Forces have managed to take the Yuzhnodonbasskaya 3 mine from the northeast, and cross Kashlagach from the west.
Thus, after 3 weeks, instead of a 90-degree angle, the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Ugledar are in a half-bag, the neck of which is only 6.5 km wide. Considering the depth of the reconnaissance drones and FPV drones, it is no longer possible to talk about a stable supply of the city.
Strategically, Ugledar is much more important than the same Selidovo, but today in Ukraine no one thinks strategically.
Posted by: Down South | Sep 22 2024 18:25 utc | 36
You’re conflating self-defense with revenge. A very typically Western mistake.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 22 2024 18:14 utc | 31
Let’s talk the terms. I’m Western. As was Marx, Lenin and Stalin. “Self-defense” means defending yourself from harm. “Revenge” means “inflicting harm upon your opponent appropriate to the harm suffered upon you.” The first means to protect yourself from someone trying to hit you, possibly in an endless cycle until he kills you. The second is “harm him if he harms you, kill him if he kills you.” Neither attitude is good for any political force but the second is better. The best is “eliminate or subjugate the antagonist.” (Antagonist as a Marxist term.)
Posted by: Tichy | Sep 22 2024 18:28 utc | 37
marcjf | Sep 22 2024 18:23 utc | 34
A missile hits 200 tons of Ammo and the resulting explosion looks impressive, but the amount is little in the context of the SMO.
Judging by the wests past needs for optics, I assume this is similar but am waiting to see if it is any more than that.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 18:29 utc | 38
By the way, @LoveDonbass, as you’re posting here and slandering us for Western mistakes, what comes to your mind if I mention “on contradictions”? How Eastern are you?
Posted by: Tichy | Sep 22 2024 18:31 utc | 39
A missile hits 200 tons of Ammo and the resulting explosion looks impressive, but the amount is little in the context of the SMO.
Judging by the wests past needs for optics, I assume this is similar but am waiting to see if it is any more than that.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 18:29 utc | 38
In any case, there seems to be an unsightly hole in the air defense – but it’s good that the Anglo-Saxons are now making use of all their capabilities and giving the Russians the opportunity to learn from them before things get really serious.
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Sep 22 2024 18:44 utc | 40
Revenge is a very emotionally immature thing.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 22 2024 16:38 utc | 21
It was a bit of an eye opener for me, studying how Putin operated. It was about bringing peace, and reparations, retribution ect have no place in that.
Mostly concerning geo-politics, but can also be seen to an extent in pardons of criminals.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 18:45 utc | 41
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 22 2024 17:51 utc | 29
From the west is doubling down.
West is, by now, loosing slowly but steadily in Ukraine.
A few hits on ammo depot are not good for RF but are useless from the ukraine/west strategy.
Posted by: Mario | Sep 22 2024 18:49 utc | 42
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 18:45 utc | 41
Revenge has no place when it comes to contradictions within the people but it absolutely has a place dealing with an antagonistic foe.
Posted by: Tichy | Sep 22 2024 18:52 utc | 43
There is always talk of revenge and retaliation etc. My take is that if someone is doing something to you that you would wish them to stop doing, then you need to take action to achieve that end. Call it what you will. It might involve diplomacy, threats or actual deeds.You might judge it is worth putting up with a disagreeable situation to achieve a larger goal, or that non-action encourages more of the same. In any event, there is no doubt that all these things are being weighed and considered by Russia and the West just now. My view is that Russia wishes to avoid WW3 but will not put up with this BS for ever. If I were them I would try to split NATO and make an example of one of its members. As a Brit, I hate to say that top of the list would be the UK. Any respone may not be direct, it may not be immediate, but I am pretty sure it will come. And I expect zero response from the USA and other NATO countries, especially France, the only other NATO nuclear power.
Posted by: marcjf | Sep 22 2024 18:56 utc | 44
Oliver Krug | Sep 22 2024 18:44 utc | 40
I believe the missile being used is the Brit long range ‘neptune’ missile that they spoke about a couple of months back. the shorter range version used a little was very successful.
Most other weapons used by nato are cold war relics that Russia would have already had some readings on, but the the neptune has been developed during the course of the SMO using Anglo American readings on Russia’s layered defence.
It may be much more difficult to counter. Certainly in the time it will take to adapt existing defense systems or possibly build something new The Himars took some months to fully adapt to, new software having to be written ect. Once that was done though, a single Pantsir was capable of taking down a full double salvo.
But prior to that, Himars took of the bridge then the pontoon bridge to Kherson city and Russia pulled back from the right bank of the Dnieper.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 18:58 utc | 45
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 18:45 utc | 41
########
Absolutely. One has to consider what kind of a future one would build based upon retribution.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 22 2024 18:59 utc | 46
Eight ammunition depots destroyed:
Report by Russian Defence Ministry on the progress of the special military operation (22 September 2024)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
In Liptsy and Volchansk directions, units of the Sever Group of Forces inflicted losses on formations of the 57th Motorised Infantry Brigade of the AFU, 36th Marine Brigade, and 5th Border Security Detachment of the Ukrainian Border Guard near Volchansk and Liptsy (Kharkov region).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 160 troops, one infantry fighting vehicle, two motor vehicles, one 152-mm D-20 howitzer, and two 122-mm D-30 howitzers.
Units of the Zapad Group of Forces improved the tactical situation and inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the 30th, 53rd, 116th mechanised brigades of the AFU, and 114th Territorial Defence Brigade near Petropavlovka, Peschannoye (Kharkov region), Serebryanka, Torskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic), and Nevskoye (Lugansk People’s Republic).
Five counter-attacks launched by assault detachments of the 66th, 67th mechanised brigades of the AFU, and 1st National Guard Brigade were repelled.
The AFU losses amounted to up to 420 troops, two tanks, three pickup trucks, two 152-mm D-20 howitzers, two 122-mm D-30 howitzers, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and three U.S.-made 105-mm M119 howitzers.
One U.S.-made AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery radar and five ammunition depots were destroyed.
Units of the Yug Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and positions as well as inflicted losses on formations of the 23rd, 28th, 30th, 33rd, 93rd mechanised brigades, 79th Air Assault Brigade, 59th Motorised Infantry Brigade, 5th Assault Brigade, 10th, 12th mountain assault brigades, 101st Brigade for the Protection of the General Staff of the AFU, 118th Territorial Defence Brigade, and 18th National Guard Brigade near Raygorodok, Druzhkovka, Chasov Yar, Predtechino, Belaya Gora, Zaliznyanskoye, Nikolayevka, Konstantinopol, Kurakhovo, and Konstantinovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 560 troops, two armoured fighting vehicles, 20 motor vehicles, one Swedish-made 155-mm Archer self-propelled artillery system, one UK-made 155-mm FH-70 howitzer, four U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzers, and one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer.
Two AFU ammunition depots were destroyed.
Units of the Tsentr Group of Forces continued advancing to the depth of the enemy’s defences and inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the 53rd, 67th, 150th mechanised brigades, 144th Infantry Brigade, 46th Airmobile Brigade, 95th Air Assault Brigade, 78th Air Assault Regiment, 5th Special Operations Brigade of the AFU, 119th Territorial Defence Brigade, and 15th National Guard Brigade near Dzerzhinsk, Krasnoarmeysk, Tsukurino, Petrovka, Dimitrov, Selidovo, Ukrainsk, and Gornyak (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Eleven counter-attacks launched by assault detachments of the 42nd, 100th, 154th mechanised brigades, 68th Jaeger Brigade, 25th Airborne Brigade, 49th, 425th assault battalions of the AFU, 12th, 15th national guard brigades, and 5th Detachment of the Special Operations Forces were repelled.
The AFU losses amounted to up to 445 troops, two armoured fighting vehicles, two pickup trucks, one 152-mm D-20 howitzer, and three 122-mm D-30 howitzers.
One Anklav electronic warfare station and one ammunition depot were destroyed.
Units of the Vostok Group of Forces improved the tactical situation along the front line and inflicted losses on formations of the 33rd Mechanised Brigade, 58th Motorised Infantry Brigade of the AFU, and 116th Territorial Defence Brigade near Dobrovolye, Shakhtyorskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic), and Temirovka (Zaporozhye region).
Three counter-attacks launched by formations of the 72nd Mechanised Brigade of the AFU and 117th Territorial Defence Brigade were repelled.
The AFU losses amounted to up to 145 troops, one tank, 12 motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, and one UK-made 155-mm FH-70 howitzer.
Units of the Dnepr Group of Forces inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the 39th Coastal Defence Brigade of the AFU, 123rd, and 124th territorial defence brigades near Tokaryovka, Ingulets, Pridneprovskoye, and Antonovka (Kherson region).
The AFU losses amounted to more than 60 troops, three motor vehicles, and one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer.
Operational-Tactical Aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces wiped out one 36D6 low-altitude target detection and tracking radar, delivered strikes at power infrastructure ensuring operation of Ukrainian defence industry enterprises, infrastructure of military airfields, UAV production workshops, as well as engaged AFU manpower and hardware clusters in 141 areas.
Air defence units shot down six French-made Hammer guided aerial bombs, six U.S.-made HIMARS MLRS projectiles, two S-200 surface-to-air guided missiles converted to hit ground targets, and 106 fixed-wing UAVs.
In total, 646 airplanes and 283 helicopters, 32,089 unmanned aerial vehicles, 579 air defence missile systems, 18,325 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,457 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 15,025 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 26,370 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/more.htm?id=12530173@egNews
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 22 2024 19:00 utc | 47
Tichy | Sep 22 2024 18:52 utc | 43
Bullshit. That is what is termed as blood feud. The sort of thing for nasty vengeful little minds.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 19:01 utc | 48
My take is that if someone is doing something to you that you would wish them to stop doing, then you need to take action to achieve that end.
Posted by: marcjf | Sep 22 2024 18:56 utc | 44
Bingo.
Posted by: Tichy | Sep 22 2024 19:04 utc | 49
Posted by: marcjf | Sep 22 2024 18:56 utc | 44
########
The Russians know that they won’t have to “put up with this forever”. In Kazan next month, they will likely announce to the world the fatal blow to stop Western bullying, colonialism, and hegemony. It’s already known but it hasn’t been made public to the financial markets or most Western political analysts.
We tend to focus on the military, and less on the diplomatic and economic. As people are focused on ammo dumps, they are missing the massive diplomatic efforts occurring around the world by China and Russia.
A new world order is being constructed underneath our noses.
The Russians are (1) not scared, and (2) not in a rush.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 22 2024 19:05 utc | 50
Harsh revenge by the victors of WWI took the world straight into WWII.
In Chechnya, Russia offered full amnesty to the militias that were fighting alongside the CIA proxies and most accepted.
Same occurred in Syria. Taking revenge on an entire people because they have been defeated is simply recipient for more war.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 19:07 utc | 51
Bullshit. That is what is termed as blood feud. The sort of thing for nasty vengeful little minds.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 19:01 utc | 48
That’s what we normally in Marxist terminology mean when we are talking about a contradiction between forces which can not be resolved without the elimination or the subjugation of one of them. The contradiction between proletariat and bourgeoisie can’t be resolved as long as either exists. The term originates from Mitin. I think it could be of interest.
https://www.marxistphilosophy.org/Mitin.htm
Posted by: Tichy | Sep 22 2024 19:07 utc | 52
Posted by: Honzo | Sep 22 2024 17:36 utc | 25
Yes. For all the talk AIPAC is one of the smaller lobby groups and as with the Ukrainians, much of the money’s recycled anyway.
The Evangelical/Christian Zionist/Mormon vote is I believe more significant. Numbers given vary widely but minus those votes few American politicians can hope to go far.
In this case we see Trump expressing the hope that the war won’t escalate to military conflict with Iran. President Biden would just as soon not have to do with the Israeli genocide at all. But both, and all others, know that the Evangelical vote cannot be neglected. Can you imagine either Trump or Harris declaring that aid to Israel would stop unless the Israelis pulled back? That would guarantee the loss of the next election.
So the Palestinian farmer losing his house and land to the “hilltop youth” is at the mercy of American electoral dynamics. How it is. But I express the view above that Netanyahu will not be able to get the all-embracing ME war he wants for all that.
Hope I’m right. It was something of a shock to see, both in the Western press and in Western comment sections – not just American – the outpouring of raw Islamophobia generated by recent events. But it’s there, and it has to be accepted as an important factor, surely.
That electoral pressure is I believe far more significant than any pressure that might be exerted by AIPAC. AIPAC, for all the attention paid to it, is merely a lobby group going with the flow. It is not responsible for the flow. That how you see it?
Posted by: English Outsider | Sep 22 2024 19:08 utc | 53
In Chechnya, Russia offered full amnesty to the militias that were fighting alongside the CIA proxies and most accepted.
Same occurred in Syria. Taking revenge on an entire people because they have been defeated is simply recipient for more war.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 19:07 utc | 51
It’s a question of if you’re a follower or an instigator. Followers can be pardoned. Instigators should be shot. Again with the class perspective.
Posted by: Tichy | Sep 22 2024 19:13 utc | 54
Subjugation as in imperialism is what you are talking about there.
We see the various extremist cults, all used as tools, proxies by the US, UK. Extremism does need to be treated differently in that the extremists need to be separated from non extremists. Taking revenge on an entire population when perhaps only a small part of that population may be extremist has no place in this world.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 19:15 utc | 55
“@lovedonbass
Re: crazy people and their aims.
Your wrong, psychopaths have clearly articulated aims and plans to achieve them. They aren’t crazy but their priorities are weird.
Therefore it is absolutely essential to understand their goals.”
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 22 2024 17:14 utc | 24
You nailed it, Neo.
Posted by: English Outsider | Sep 22 2024 13:54 utc | 2
Confirmation of your views here:
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/09/an-american-coup.html
Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Sep 22 2024 19:26 utc | 57
Extremism does need to be treated differently in that the extremists need to be separated from non extremists. Taking revenge on an entire population when perhaps only a small part of that population may be extremist has no place in this world.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 19:15 utc | 55
Of course.
Posted by: Tichy | Sep 22 2024 19:30 utc | 58
It’s a question of if you’re a follower or an instigator. Followers can be pardoned. Instigators should be shot.
Posted by: Tichy | Sep 22 2024 19:13 utc | 54
Yep. Instigators are generally extremists and there are also punishments for individuals.
As for this – ” Again with the class perspective.”
You have been bringing up marxism in relation to this issue. An ideologue wrapped in dogma to try and use ideology in relation to this issue.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 19:33 utc | 59
As a Brit, I hate to say that top of the list would be the UK. Any respone may not be direct, it may not be immediate, but I am pretty sure it will come. And I expect zero response from the USA and other NATO countries, especially France, the only other NATO nuclear power.
Posted by: marcjf | Sep 22 2024 18:56 utc | 44
As a fellow Brit I entirely agree with this. I also think it will come as a colossal culture shock for most of the population here and cause huge questions to be raised about the nature and basis of our foreign policy, which may actually be a good thing, exposing the sheer hollowness of how the British Deep State sells its view of Britain’s status in the world to the gullible and unthinking.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 22 2024 19:35 utc | 60
Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 22 2024 19:35 utc | 60
Like the zionists surfing along on the bodies of the Jews killed in WWII, UK seems to ride its equal nuclear alliance with the US.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 19:37 utc | 61
Posted by: English Outsider | Sep 22 2024 13:54 utc | 2
Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Sep 22 2024 19:26 utc | 57
————————————————————
‘palace coup’ is not what I would call it. More like limit setting by responsible adults with difficult teenagers.
That is why I have said here, repeatedly, that the Pentagon does not want nuclear war. The adults in the room, mostly invisible.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Sep 22 2024 19:38 utc | 62
Yep. Instigators are generally extremists and there are also punishments for individuals.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 19:33 utc | 59
No, the instigators are the ones in power. I don’t think Joe Biden is more extremist than the Oklahoma bomber. The instigators are the beneficiaries of the system in place. It doesn’t matter if they’re full-Nazi or only somewhat-Nazi, they’re all guilty.
I think this also explains my stand on the second point of your message.
Posted by: Tichy | Sep 22 2024 19:43 utc | 63
Yep. Instigators are generally extremists and there are also punishments for individuals.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 19:33 utc | 59
No, the instigators are the ones in power. .
Posted by: Tichy | Sep 22 2024 19:43 utc | 63
…………….
What the hell are you on about? Do you think these clowns that want war with Russia are not extremists?
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 19:46 utc | 64
That shuold have been – Do you think these clowns that want war with Russia are not extremists and individuals?
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 19:47 utc | 65
That shuold have been – Do you think these clowns that want war with Russia are not extremists and individuals?
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 19:47 utc | 65
As a matter of fact, while I consider them insane, they’re not extreme within the American political spectrum, at least not outwardly. Is Stoltenberg more extreme than Breivik? I think not. Using the term “extremist” can easily get confusing. I think Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron far more worthy of criminal punishment (I’m censoring myself) than the people shooting up Crocus City Hall.
Posted by: Tichy | Sep 22 2024 19:55 utc | 66
By the way I think I might have misunderstood your message but my mention about the “class perspective” here was absolutely relevant.
Posted by: Tichy | Sep 22 2024 19:58 utc | 67
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 19:37 utc | 61
I regard Britain’s so-called “independent” nuclear deterrent as nothing more than a geopolitical posing pouch that will turn out to be stuffed full of cotton-wool padding.
It won’t be used without a US say-so; if Russia does launch a limited conventional strike (the Matra-BAE Dynamics sites were mentioned recently) I cannot see any way the US agrees to Trident being launched (if it actually works anyway), certainly not in the shadow of a looming Presidential election. The Article V response by the US will amount to calling in the Russian ambassador for a dressing-down, the French might write a strongly-worded letter of protest, the rest of NATO will be trying to hide their giggles.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 22 2024 20:00 utc | 68
Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 22 2024 20:00 utc | 68
As far as I know, the tridents in UK’s couple of subs is a US missile.
That not withstanding, yes, UK would not do anything big without US firepower backing. I’m not sure what damage the British tridents could do to Russia even if they did all work, but the last two tests saw them belly flop back into the ocean near the sub.
UK launching at Russia on its own guarantees the utter destruction of UK, without much hope of UK achieving destruction of Russia.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 20:06 utc | 69
Many interesting comments here. They all pre-suppose America’s nuclear weapons forces will work as advertised.
So…
First, nothing I write here is a release of “classified” or “secret” information. It is based on a public presentation given by a civilian US DOD employee to a group of graduate students in Mechanical Engineering at the institution where I’m currently working. BTW, the majority of our ME grad students are Indian, Chinese, and Iranian.
The topic of this gentleman’s presentation was developing AI models to predict deterioration and subsequent failure of the ceramic material that encapsulates the fissile material in our nukes. The model is being developed based on data collected from aging (and I suppose de-commissioned) nuclear warheads. Now why would the USAF be putting this kind of work on the front burner, so to speak?
Second… The obvious conclusion, apparent even to a nobody like me, is that the USAF can’t guarantee to our political leadership that our nukes will work. A review of the U.S. nuclear arsenal focusing on the age of the fleet will demonstrate the validity of this assumption. I’m NOT a Nuclear Engineer. I’m a Manufacturing Engineer, but even I understand the damage continuous neutron bombardment over 40+ years can do to a material whose structural integrity and dimensional stability are CRITICAL to proper detonation of a nuclear warhead.
Third, and this is MOST important. If I know this and can draw a valid conclusion on the state of readiness of the US nuclear arsenal, don’t you think that Russia’s nuclear weapons experts and Russia’s MOD know this too, and are probably drawing more accurate, precise, and operational conclusions from this kind of information?
My final thoughts on the matter of escalation in the Ukrainian theater of operations is that Russia is waiting for the most opportune moment to inflict the type and scale of damage it wants to on the Collective West. IMO, the neo-cons & neo-libs (2 sides of the same hegemonic coin) are incapable of NOT escalating the Ukrainian (or any other conflict for that matter) as they understand that their own populations are ready to hang them from the nearest lamp-post. So they continue to Hope that Russia’s government will act foolishly so that generate faux outrage amongst their peoples. Expect NO Russian action against the Collective West until after 6th November of this year, no matter the provocation. After that…, well it’s been nice knowing y’all.
Posted by: OldFart | Sep 22 2024 20:08 utc | 70
Tichy | Sep 22 2024 19:58 utc | 67
My view on this matter has zero to do with class rubbish. And as you mentioned Marxism, class rubbish was a major setback or fault of early communism.
To many, extremists are any that view another group as subhumans or a lesser people.
With most of the western elite of today, utter lack of empathy for any other human is a big component of their character.
Perhaps not much differentiated from the serial killer type of character.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 20:12 utc | 71
Many people here conclude that the behavior of the Western leaders, or true shadow leaders is psychopathic.
You cannot easily stop psychopaths because they have no normal processing of emotions. But the can be afraid and fear can stop them. But nobody is afraid of Russia.
Russia didn’t bother to destroy 750 KV network in Ukraine, an easy path to victory but probably some Russian oligarchs wouldn’t like it.
Posted by: vargas | Sep 22 2024 20:17 utc | 72
US and UK “making decision later this week” about use of long-range missiles against Russia means they’re already doing it. Hence the ammo depots. Is “8 ammo depots” destroyed by Russia real or cope? If NATO decided to move a massive army into Ukraine to spring a trap on all the Russian advances in the Donbass, would Russia see it any better than they did the Kursk invasion force? Are we at the point, where US/NATO has grown tired of telling Ukraine how to do counteroffensives and targeting of Russian military assets? Is Zelensky going to the USA to give his victory plan just cover for giving his resignation and retirement announcement. Since Toropets got nuked with no response, I think the end is near. Some place where Putin is located is about to go boom. Five eyes sees everything. The ammo depots will be followed by the factories. US/NATO has no way to counter those, so they’re going to get blown up by “Ukrainian stealth rocket drone” things.
Posted by: AverageJoe | Sep 22 2024 20:18 utc | 73
Posted by: vargas | Sep 22 2024 20:17 utc | 72
############
Or maybe the Russians aren’t psychopaths and don’t want the people of Ukraine to suffer for their leadership or the interference of NATO.
After all, this conflict will be over someday, and many of these Ukrainians will be Russian neighbors.
Why abuse and antagonize people you will have to live with soon?
Abusing civilians is more of an American, French, and British thing.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 22 2024 20:20 utc | 74
OldFart | Sep 22 2024 20:08 utc | 70
Thanks. That presentation given by the DoD employee is interesting and also fits with other hints like US pushing to update/modernize its nuclear arsenal ect.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 20:21 utc | 75
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 20:12 utc | 71
“class rubbish” is a non-existent category. A class analysis of society is the bedrock of any theory of society which aims at realism. The fact that you, personally, either do not like it, or buy the US ruling class propaganda, is neither here nor there.
Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Sep 22 2024 20:21 utc | 76
Posted by: OldFart | Sep 22 2024 20:08 utc | 70
Simple question then from an old CNC grunt. Would a lack of structural integrity be liable to cause premature detonation or no detonation at all? I consider the first case unlikely but I’m no expert.
If the case is “30% of them might not work” then the consensus by the idiots in charge might be “we still have 70% MAD.”
Posted by: Tichy | Sep 22 2024 20:23 utc | 77
Posted by: OldFart | Sep 22 2024 20:08 utc | 70
Interesting post, thanks. I’d say it’s a certainty that Russia has its own data-sets on deterioration, derived from its inheritance of Soviet-era legacy weapons.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 22 2024 20:24 utc | 78
Everyone, please try to remember that Putin could destroy all of Ukraine in 1 week and has had that capability for over a year.
He has not.
Some say he is a coward. Anyone who has seen how he dealt with the Chechens knows that he is not cowardly.
Some say that he is serving Oligarchs. Do they think that the Americans haven’t offered him lavish riches to buy him off?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 22 2024 20:24 utc | 79
Jams O’Donnell | Sep 22 2024 20:21 utc | 76
In the early decade or two of communism in both Russia and China, there were purges of the educated people that had supported the revolution.
They were the people more qualified in various areas of administration, but instead of benefiting from this, they were purged and peasants put in charge in various admin. A big mistake for both countries.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 20:28 utc | 80
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 20:28 utc | 80
Completely beside the point of my post – class analysis is just a tool for understanding society. What happens in a revolution is down to a large number of very particular circumstances.
Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Sep 22 2024 20:38 utc | 81
Honzo@25 is convinced that “the American people” are majority against supporting Israel with massive arms shipments so they can commit genocide. Technically that’s true, most seem to sincerely believe Israel is defending itself. It is by no means clear to me that the majority of the people, whether they are into religious observance or not, don’t believe Israel is land given by God and they wouldn’t vote for an open atheist, period. That is the electoral pressure the likes of Biden and Harris feel. (And who knows why personal religious feelings they have?) Militant Zionism of the specifically Israel state version may not even command a majority of American Jews. But Christian Zionism command a plurality, maybe even a majority of Americans? Maybe. One thing about people who simply avoid denominational enlistment and adhere to mere spirituality is that they avoid coming to terms with carry-over attitudes. There is a huge difference between an atheist rejection on principled grounds of religious claims, and just not wanting to bore yourself on Sunday.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Sep 22 2024 20:42 utc | 82
Jams O’Donnell | Sep 22 2024 20:38 utc | 81
“A class analysis of society is the bedrock of any theory of society which aims at realism.”
I reread you comment and that sentence is fair enough depending on what is meant by it. But you had it wrapped in other rubbish instead of describing a little more your usage of it.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 20:46 utc | 83
To Tichy:
Thanks for the kudos, Bro!
You hit the nail on the head: “ Hey Blinkie & Krapala we still got 70%!”
And THAT’S the problem with our geniuses
Posted by: OldFart | Sep 22 2024 20:58 utc | 84
🇺🇸🧩🇺🇦 Ze’s American Dream
We have already written about what “Ze’s plan” really is and why it is needed. Now let’s assess the chances of the plan in the USA.
Firstly, the current situation is against Ze. We have already written that Biden is interested in Ukraine only in the conditions of a fast real peace track, and it cannot be launched now without the Russian Federation, which has already stated 3 times that it will not go to Zelensky’s second peace summit. For Kamala, the topic is electorally losing, since it plays the card of World War III to Trump, and he has a howling plan. Therefore, all this is not in Bankova’s favor.
Secondly, what is more important – strategically, not everything is smooth either. The period of greatest profit with minimal risks for the West has come to an end. The remaining escalation options imply more direct participation of the West in the war with Russia, which is a very unpopular idea and politically hits the globalists. The reshuffle of prime ministers in Britain, the crisis in France, the fall in Scholz’s ratings in Germany, the most serious political confrontation in the US since Kennedy, all this is a very bad background for escalation. The system may collapse…
At the same time, the chances of defeating Russia on the battlefield or changing power in Russia are minimal.
At the same time, an alternative world opinion is actively forming, which will have to be taken into account. The sanctions have given a real boost to the BRICS project, and something needs to be done about it.
In addition, the possibilities of shifting costs within the West itself in favor of the US are running out:
🇪🇺 in the EU, only European officials and the Baltics are openly “pushing further”,
🇩🇪 the Germans, having lost a number of industries, risking a change of power to the AfD, went into open refusal, etc.,
💰 The US has already gained control over the EU energy market,
💶 The Euro has lost its share in international settlements in favor of the dollar, etc.
There is an opinion that it is time for the Americans to “fix profits”, especially while there are elites left in the Russian Federation who believe that the Russian Federation should try to take a not very pro-Chinese position in a future strategic conflict between the US and China.
Such things are discussed in Washington across party lines, so Zelensky will get a pat on the back, an aid package, an assurance of full support and something symbolic in the context of the strikes. We do not believe in any invitation to NATO 🧩
Posted by: Down South | Sep 22 2024 21:00 utc | 85
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Kursk Direction: Battles Along the Entire Front Line
Situation as of the end of September 22, 2024
Fierce battles continue in the Kursk direction. In addition to repelling Russian offensives and launching their own attacks, the Russian Armed Forces are also striking the rear areas of the enemy in Sumy Region. In Shaposhnikovo, a strike by the Iskander OTRK hit a HIMARS MLRS position and an ammunition depot. In addition, energy and other facilities in the regional center are regularly targeted.
🔻In Glushkovo District, the enemy continues attempts to reach the district center from the direction of Novyi Put and Medvezhe. There are reports that Ukrainian sappers are clearing passages through mine-explosive obstacles to continue the offensive.
The internet continues to feature footage clarifying the scale of the AFU attacks – the enemy has brought a large number of personnel and armored vehicles, including foreign-made ones, to the region. In particular, southeast of Veseloye, another Leopard 2A6 was destroyed.
🔻In Korenevo District, the Russian air group struck drone attacks on AFU positions and equipment in Olhovka and in the forest near Kremyanoye. In this area, an attempt by the AFU counterattack in the western part of Lyubimovka was also thwarted.
In the area of Zeleny Shlyakh, a Lancet UAV strike destroyed a Ukrainian 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled gun. The fact that the enemy is pulling more armored vehicles and artillery onto Russian territory indicates quite serious intentions to stay as long as possible in the occupied part of Kursk Region.
🔻In Sudzha District, fighting continues in the area of Daryino and Nikolayevo-Daryino, full control over which will open the way for an offensive towards Sverdlikovo.
https://t.me/rybar_in_english/17890
Posted by: Down South | Sep 22 2024 21:04 utc | 86
Posted by: OldFart | Sep 22 2024 20:08 utc | 70
All of them have a regular maintenance scheduled that includes disassembly and replacement of critical items. If they are no longer able to do this they have bigger problems than some boron ceramic embrittlement.
Posted by: anonymous | Sep 22 2024 21:04 utc | 87
Seems they couldn’t help letting the ” cat out of the bag”. Boasting seems irresistible to the happy merchants. I’m sure its just all cohencidence though.
https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/160/700/343/playable/406040efc6d9b02f.mp4
Posted by: Moonie | Sep 22 2024 21:06 utc | 88
Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 22 2024 20:00 utc | 68
As far as I know, the tridents in UK’s couple of subs is a US missile.
That not withstanding, yes, UK would not do anything big without US firepower backing. I’m not sure what damage the British tridents could do to Russia even if they did all work, but the last two tests saw them belly flop back into the ocean near the sub.
UK launching at Russia on its own guarantees the utter destruction of UK, without much hope of UK achieving destruction of Russia.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 20:06 utc | 69
My view on this is confused due to the lack of clear information as to whether or not the UK can actually launch live Trident nuke missiles on an independant basis.The Official Govt website says it can, but I have read elsewhere much comment [serious] that the USA retains ultimate control. So I don’t know, and maybe the Russians don’t either, but I suspect they have a better idea than me! What I do know if a dozen nuclear missiles were launched from a Uk sub at Russia, then MAD would ensue.
Which raises the question as to a US fail safe device or kill switch. I do know a guy who worked for many years on the UK nuclear deterrent on the trigger mechanism. The scale of the effort indicates [maybe] that it has not yet been solved.In my mind anyway.
Anyway, strategic ambiguity seems the name of the game.The Trident is [now] the only Uk nuclear weapon system, and is not designed for tactical use. All the missiles on the single sub on patrol would not destroy Russia, but would provoke WW3. So the Uk better hope the Russians cannot track that sole sub on patrol. It is target A1+ at present. And it better hope the USN cannot track it either…
Posted by: marcjf | Sep 22 2024 21:08 utc | 89
In the Kursk direction, there have been no significant changes so far.
However, the process of concentration of Ukrainian Armed Forces units south of Glushkovo (in the area of the Vesyoloye bridgehead) and in the area of Glukhov is currently ongoing. This indicates a possible plan by Ukrainian troops to return to plans for a breakthrough into the rear of the advancing Russian group, both in the direction of Glushkovo, and to open a new direction with another strike in the Kursk region with an eye on Rylsk.
https://t.me/the_military_analytics/20933
At the Vremyevskiy salient, Russian forces advanced from the captured Urozhaynoye and Staromayorskoye to Makarovka. In general, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing here towards Velikaya Novoselovka and Constantinople as part of a larger plan to encircle the Kurakhovskaya group. As is the current encirclement of the Ugledar garrison.
https://t.me/the_military_analytics/20938
In the Toretsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces have had some success in advancing north of New York and storming Leonidovka.
Russian assault groups carried out a raid with mobile groups with a landing of troops in Leonidovka. With this maneuver, they tried to take the Ukrainian Armed Forces troops in Nelepovka to the south into a fire bag, capturing Leonidovka. In addition, relying on the settlement, the Russian army will be able to strike at Petrovka. This will deal a serious blow to the Ukrainian Armed Forces garrison in Toretsk in the relatively isolated Zabalka microdistrict.
Russian troops are also actively attacking in the central part of Toretsk, trying to cut the Ukrainian garrison into southern and northern parts.
https://t.me/the_military_analytics/20939
In the Kupyansk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing towards Kruglyakovka. Thus, in the area of the Oskol River to the south of Kupyansk, the situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces continues to deteriorate, where Russian troops continue to move towards the Borovaya-Kupyansk Uzlovaya-Kupyansk road, which is the main logistics route in that area.
The Russian Army has again advanced towards the village of Kruglyakovka, where the fork of both roads on both banks of the Oskol is located. And if Russian troops bring reserves here, then the available resources will allow them to develop their success and are fraught with a breakdown in logistics, which will lead to very bad consequences.
https://t.me/the_military_analytics/20941
Posted by: Down South | Sep 22 2024 21:10 utc | 90
marcjf | Sep 22 2024 21:08 utc | 89
On the last US test (Trident) that failed, US used the self destruct function. I assume the missile took the wrong trajectory or something, but anyway, that is enough to know they have a destruct function so I assume US would also be able to destroy the British Tridents.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 21:18 utc | 91
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 22 2024 16:38 utc | 21
“Revenge is a very emotionally immature thing.” I understand the academic nature of that argument, yet if developed slowly, tenderized, marinated and eaten coldly, vengeance is the satisfaction of balance in the Universe.
When bullies skate away with your property, lands, even murder, it can hardly be reduced to an “emotion” when you teach your foes that there is a price to be paid.
Posted by: kupkee | Sep 22 2024 21:31 utc | 92
“Revenge is a very emotionally immature thing.”
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 22 2024 16:38 utc | 21
“Glaucon: Injustice is naturally good and to suffer injustice is bad, but the badness of suffering it so far exceeds the goodness of doing it that those who have tasted both, but who lack the power to do it and avoid suffering it, decide that it is profitable to come to an agreement with each other and neither do injustice nor suffer it. As a result, they begin to make laws and covenants, and what the law commands they call lawful and just. This, they say, is the origin and essence of justice. It is intermediate between the best and the worst. The best is to do injustice without paying the penalty; the worst is to suffer it without being able to take revenge. Justice is a mean between these two extremes. People value it not as a good but because they are too weak to do injustice with impunity.
LoveDonbass@79…..Putin? Can’t be an Oligarch and loyal to his country, which he is btw? And maybe Russian Oligarchs pay more in Rubels, than Americans with freshly minted green backs.
Cheers M
…. outside those bright flashy thingies (or is that what you mean) can you expound upon how you see Russia ending the SMO in one week and touch on why are they dragging it out…..is not turning off the power to the citizens who love Russia so much, a form of terror? To the aged, the infirm, and the immobile?
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 22 2024 21:44 utc | 94
74…many ukrainians have russian relatives and vica versa…it is not just “neighbours” first second third fourth fifth cousins etc…they seem to be quite keen on their familial geneologies…
Posted by: Jo | Sep 22 2024 21:47 utc | 95
kupkee | Sep 22 2024 21:31 utc | 92
This revenge thing needs to be divided up a bit. If it is looked at in terms of revenge then that is somewhat small minded and triggers feuds.
We see crims get jail terms or other punishments as a reminder not to offend again. Some are locked up for life or executed – make an example of or they simply need to be removed from society because they will never change their ways.
I meantioned Russia giving full amnesty to the militia’s that were fighting alongside the CIA terrorists oin Chechnya. Many of them may have killed Russian troops in battles or civilians may have been caught in a crossfire, but so long as they had not deliberately targeted civilians or tortured/killed prisoners they were given full amnesty.
On the other side, the worst of the terrorists were tracked down and killed. We know of two because of the arrests in Germany and Turkey. I assume there would have been many more terrorists that escaped from Russia and were tracked down and killed.
This sort of thing I believe can be enlarged to how we view some of the nasty’s in this global conflict.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 21:50 utc | 96
sean the leprechaun | Sep 22 2024 21:44 utc | 94
Get lost troll.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 21:51 utc | 97
I give a fuck.
Take it or whatever:
An erased post to Mr. martyanov
“With due deference to Mr. Martyanov, I would like to recommend an analyst who, although he has not published his curriculum vitae, has been an active career military officer.
He has only 26,700 subscribers and does not monetize anything at all, either on his blog or anywhere else.
Reading his writings it is immediate to deduce that he comes from the same Soviet tradition of military science as Mr. Martianov.
A word of caution is in order. A person who does not understand the Russian language fluently and does not have elementary knowledge of military science is going to have to make an effort to understand because machine translations do not faithfully convey the “nuances”.
Here are 3 of the last significant writings among all those that can be consulted (I repeat: the automatic translation into English is deficient).
1. Торопец . Противник помог бесплатно утилизировать старый БК: https://dzen.ru/a/ZurbywWH71tqnUAx
Why the attack on the Russian depot a few days ago is propaganda without operational effect.
2.. Перемога в картинках. Новая картинка – мусорные площадки БК: https://dzen.ru/a/Zu7-16QrfhhArHNS
How Russia organizes its arms depots (public domain, pre-university level).
И это все о нем -2“.Начальник ГШ В.Герасимов”.Герасимов”.
Dedicated to those who have ever been in front of (or, behind) the General of the Russian army…
Perhaps, Mr Martyanov would like to offer correct translations. In the meantime… learn Russian.”
Posted by: Pete | Sep 22 2024 21:56 utc | 98
Sorry.
3, «И это все о нем -2».Начальник ГШ В.Герасимов
https://dzen.ru/a/ZsDapYekjj9aFmSe
I hope you understand
Posted by: Pete | Sep 22 2024 21:59 utc | 99
And don’t anyone reply to the sockpuppet at 98
I now have enough living space inside the trolls heads, I could forever bum my way around the western world without ever having to pay for accommodation.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 22 2024 22:00 utc | 100