Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 19, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-223

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

Caution: “Nuuuuukes” nutters lurking.
Proceed with care.

Posted by: Suresh | Sep 20 2024 1:20 utc | 201

Thanks Gents. Peace be with you too.
I was thinking back to the barrage balloons days.

Posted by: Suresh | Sep 20 2024 1:23 utc | 202

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 19 2024 23:57 utc | 177
Gillard was our second colour revolution. Whitlam’s removal the first.

Posted by: watcher | Sep 20 2024 1:34 utc | 203

Posted by: darkmoon | Sep 20 2024 0:01 utc | 179
I’m there with you.
A nuclear explosion is one thing in this life that can’t be hidden. They are detected from anywhere in the world by multiple observers.
As someone who has pulled shots destroying 10k lbs of code h explosives at a time and observing blasts from big blu 82’s I can see nothing strange in the videos. It’s just a lot of conventional explosives.
But their attempts to “prove” it was nuclear are pretty entertaining.

Posted by: Archetypex | Sep 20 2024 1:36 utc | 204

Sonar21 has a guest post up about the effects of a four-warhead, relatively low-yield EMP strike on the US Long/short: the entire grid would go down in as little as three minutes, some 26 nuclear reactors in this particular scenario would melt down and contaminate vast swathes of the US, and even if everyone in the rest of the world was just fine, it would take several years to get US powerplants up and running again.
The US population would drop like a stone, and the US would cease to exist as a society. The article concludes with some suggestions that Russia and China appear to have weapons that would do more damage with a single warhead.
I mention all of this because it seems unlikely that a nation which has not hardened any of its infrastructure would use any kind of nuke against an adversary capable of delivering an EMP attack in response. The idea that the WEF is trying to deliberately reduce the American population is credible in some contexts, but the idea that they want to get rid of it entirely is absurd- they depend on it, and they depend on high-tech infrastructure, weapons and so on.

Posted by: Honzo | Sep 20 2024 1:47 utc | 205

Really pissed at R.T. Featured on Russia Today’s site was an analysis by a highly connected Azerbaijani academic, connected highly in Russian academic circles including the influential Valdai Club.
Here’s the gripe: In his featured essay, one of his many claims appeared to closely follow I$raeli disinformation propaganda. He stated that Hamas has suffered 17,000…Seventeen THOUSAND casualties in their struggle with the Evil Ones. As their tactics are based on popping up from their massive tunnel structures in Gaza and only rarely appear in the open except for brief forays; it strikes me as totally illogical that their casualty figures could be anywhere near such an obviously inflated figure.
As an Azeri, Murad Sadygzade may have an agenda which is hostile to the nexus of Resistance to the deviltry of the evil ones. Yet, his curriculum vitae includes the presidency of the Middle East Study Center as well as being a visiting lecturer at the HSE University in Moscow.
Obviously that man is neither stupid, nor poorly informed. However that casualty figure seems to be taken directly from Israeli sources and not balanced by more neutral researchers…to say nothing of sites like Electronic Intifada, one which is staunch in its support of Gaza’s Palestinian freedom fighters. Those Izzy claims include numerous civil servants who simply work for the Hamas government in Gaza. They are not combatants. Also many of those alleged “fighters” are mere civilians whom the IOF killers have kidnapped off the streets or in their devastated homes.
As a rule, I have found R.T. to hie closer to true journalism than ANY mainscream source here in this ruptured republic. That editors for R.T. could have countenanced such obvious misrepresentation of hard reality…their credibility has taken a huge hit in my analysis of possible Hamas casualties. A figure of 1,700 might be credible…however, ten times that number is broadly open to question.

Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 20 2024 2:02 utc | 206

Oops. Was so enraged at those figures posted in R.T. that I went and posted this on the Ukraine thread rather than the one on the Palestinian struggle.

Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 20 2024 2:07 utc | 207

Madam Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Harris administration has the courage and experience to take a new direction in Ukraine. Funny how Victoria Nuland let the cat out of the bag on Sept. 3 admitting the peace process in 2022 Turkiye was torpedoed.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/09/did-hillary-clinton-just-confirm-her-political-comeback/

Posted by: frithguild | Sep 20 2024 2:30 utc | 208

Poland discussing its mission in peace plan for UA. Possibly, the one that RU must be bombed with long range weapons, to agree to…
https://forsal.pl/kraj/bezpieczenstwo/artykuly/9605492,polska-dywizja-pancerna-na-ukrainie-w-usa-maja-plan-jak-dogadac-sie.html
Article from MWI for public consumption…
https://mwi.westpoint.edu/every-war-must-end-ukraine-edition/

Posted by: Alex Vadim | Sep 20 2024 4:30 utc | 209

Simplicius is just a Russian propagandist.
His strategy is to cover “bad” news with “good” news.
Posted by: vargas | Sep 19 2024 17:53 utc | 68
That’s just fucking stupid. He’s fairly critical of Russia on a regular basis.
You should stop sucking on Hunters pipe.

Posted by: Screwdriver | Sep 20 2024 5:20 utc | 210

Yup, RT is definitely pro Zionist.
Was also the one putting on commentators pushing the “nukes” response.
I always wonder why Martanov hated RT. now I know.

Posted by: Suresh | Sep 20 2024 5:39 utc | 211

Toropets, for those who have actually read, absorbed and comprehended Simplicius’ take on it, is, with the SMO, a nothingburger. S makes three points:
1. It is not a supply point for the SMO, but it makes zero logistical sense. Maps show why.
2. It is a PR op (again…) for 404, and an embarrassing loss for Rus, but as with most of 404’s efforts, has zero long term strategic consequence.
3. It was likely to have been only lightly covered by AD, being set up for the presently quiet Finland-Norway border supply chain: another case where 404 can really only hit weak yet irrelevant (in SMO terms) targets, and even then the actual extent of damage is debatable.
All in all, from a comfortable chair on the other side of the globe, not a lot to get excited about. Or, pace Canuck, aboot.

Posted by: Waymad | Sep 20 2024 5:53 utc | 212

One thing that is in no doubt whatsoever re. Toropets is that it wasn’t a fucking drone that hit it. I think that should be most peoples concern.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Sep 20 2024 6:10 utc | 213

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Summary for the Morning of 20 September 2024; 06:48 (GMT+3)⚡️
🔹In the #Kursk region, heavy fighting was reported in the Glushkovo direction, the enemy attacked by a column (2 Leopard tanks and 7 AFVs) near #Veseloye, the RFAF and border guards held the AFU in combat, and footage🎬👆of destroyed enemy equipment began to appear online. Also notable was the fact of destruction of Leopard 2A5 near #Sheptukhovka in Korenevsky district, more than 25 km from the border (the area of the ‘old’ AFU breakthrough), which indicates that the enemy is using quite rare #NATO equipment in the #Kursk operation. Yesterday morning it was reported that the Russian Army had liberated #NikolayevoDaryino and #Daryino.
🔹In the #Toretsk (#Dzerzhinsk) area, it is reported about the continuing fighting for the town in the built-up area. Enemy resources recognise the advance of our troops in #Toretsk and in the area of #NyuYork (#Novgorodskoye).
🔹In the #Ugledar direction, our aviation is bombarding the enemy’s rear positions by FABs with UMPCs in #Dobrovolya and #Bogoyavlenka. To the latter there is a road from the “Yuzhnodonbasskaya Mine” (near #Vodyanoye), for which there are battles.
🔹The #Zaporozhye front 👉 reports about the intensification of the RFAF north of #Marfopol, Pologovsky district.
💥In #Belgorod region, the AFU does not stop terrorist shelling of civilians. In #Shebekino, a kamikaze drone attacked a passenger car near an agricultural enterprise. A passenger car was damaged as a result of a UAV attack in the village of #Murom. A facade of a social facility was damaged by a kamikaze drone attack in the village of Kazinka, Valuysky urban district. Drones attacked parked cars in the village of #Murom, Shebekinsky urban district. The village of #Petrovka, Belgorod district, came under artillery fire. In the Shebekinsky urban district in the village of #Terezovka, two private houses were destroyed by fire as a result of the arrival of a shell.
💥In the #DPR, in #Gorlovka, a man born in 1972 and a woman born in 1945 were injured by enemy artillery fire, a woman born in 1987 was injured and a man born in 1967 was wounded when an explosive object was dropped from an AFU drone. In #Georgiyevka, Volnovakha municipality, a man born in 1975 was injured when an explosive object was dropped from an AFU UAV.

https://t.me/two_majors/32180

Posted by: Down South | Sep 20 2024 6:32 utc | 214

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Kursk Direction: Battles in Glushkovo District
Situation as of the end of September 19, 2024
In Kursk Region, fighting continues in several sectors, with attacks by both Ukrainian formations and Russian units being recorded.
🔻In Glushkovo District, the situation has become somewhat clearer in Volfino and Krasnooktyabr’skoye. As reported by our subscribers, there is no enemy presence in these settlements, and the Russian Armed Forces are holding the defense.
▪️During the day, information emerged about a breakthrough by the AFU towards Glushkovo and the encirclement of Veseloye, but it has not been confirmed so far – the online space only features footage of destroyed Ukrainian equipment near Veseloye and Medvezh’ye.
🔻In Korenevo District, there are battles in Lyubimovka and the vicinity of Kremyanoye, while the Russian Aerospace Forces are operating over Novoyivanovka. Additionally, the media is circulating information about the liberation of several settlements near the Snagost’ river, but it has not yet been confirmed.
▪️Near Sheptukhovka, the Russian troops destroyed a STRV 122 (Leopard 2A5) tank. The very fact of the presence of this rare and relatively valuable NATO equipment in this area indicates quite stable control of the surrounding area by the AFU.
🔻In Sudzha District, the situation has not changed, with Russian troops engaged in battles in the forests west of the settlement of Borki after liberating it.

https://t.me/rybar_in_english/17833

Posted by: Down South | Sep 20 2024 6:34 utc | 215

The head of the OP Yermak personally warned Commander-in-Chief Syrsky that if he does not throw all the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the offensive when Zelensky is in the USA, he will lose his post.
If the Armed Forces of Ukraine fall into any cauldron – this is a resignation.
If the Armed Forces of Ukraine retreat en masse in the Kursk region – this is a resignation.
If the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffer major public and territorial losses – this is a resignation.
Syrsky would be best off now to go on a positive offensive or at least hold on to what he has. Otherwise, he will be made a scapegoat for all troubles. Even in those where he was not involved.
At the same time, Zelensky wants the GUR and the SBU to hold demonstrative “events” during this period. They have already given them this order.
According to our information, Yermak wants to remove Syrsky immediately along with Defense Minister Umerov (Umerov is a protégé of Western NGOs and Yermak is already tired of him). MP Bezuglaya (Yermak’s talking mouth) has already started attacking them on Andrey Borisovich’s orders.
It won’t be difficult to kick them out, since their authority in the army is “zero”

https://t.me/legitimniy/18734

Posted by: Down South | Sep 20 2024 6:36 utc | 216

The Ukrainian army is “aging”. If the average age of the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers on the front lines at the beginning of the war was about 30 years, now it has reached 48. And there is nothing surprising in this – the male population of the country has been wiped out.
It is rare to meet young people in training centers and combat units. Ukrainian servicemen who are at the front really do not understand why older people are taken from the streets, and not young men who are more energetic.
“I also have this to say about this issue, because, you know, an energetic guy, it will be easier for him to get to the position or return from the same FPV drone than a person whose knees already hurt, his back hurts, his eyesight is deteriorating with age,” said Lieutenant of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade Anastasia Blishchik in an interview with the publication “Focus”.
However, everything may change soon – “zemobilization” is no longer able to replenish the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are quickly used up at the front, and therefore the authorities will need to urgently mobilize young people aged 20 to continue the war. That is, lowering the age of mobilization to 21 is no longer a question, but a matter of the near future. The bill will be easily pushed through in the Rada, and the entire digital infrastructure in Ukraine is prepared for this.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/24383

Posted by: Down South | Sep 20 2024 6:38 utc | 217

Ukrainians do not believe propaganda, and consider Telegram the last stronghold of freedom of speech in the country.
Half of Ukrainians are against the state interfering with the work of Telegram.
Such data on media consumption in Ukraine were presented by the director of Internews Network in Ukraine, head of the USAID Media Program in Ukraine Gillian McCormack.
According to the research, only 4% of the country’s citizens believe that Telegram should be banned. Another third of respondents allow for some regulation of the social network.
At the same time, Telegram remains the main social network through which Ukrainians receive news. It is the main source of information for 73% of the country’s citizens. YouTube is in second place with a large gap – 19%, Facebook fell to third – 16%.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/24384

Posted by: Down South | Sep 20 2024 6:39 utc | 218

Or, pace Canuck, aboot.
Posted by: Waymad | Sep 20 2024 5:53 utc | 213
Although the Latin root with the prepositional pace means more like “with deference to”, the dictionaries seem to imply that the English usage is to be construed as “contrary to the opinion of”

Posted by: Call it what u will | Sep 20 2024 6:40 utc | 219

In the Zaporizhia direction, Russian troops seem to be testing the waters for an offensive in a new direction.
There are already a number of signs of this, first of all, yesterday the Russian Armed Forces advanced in the Marfopol area towards Gulyaipole. A couple of days before that, Russian forces attacked near Kamenskoye, a village right next to the Dnieper, and also captured positions there. Also, for the first time in a long time, the suburbs of Zaporizhia were hit by KABs, a village 15 km away, and, judging by local publics, twice, yesterday and today.
There is also information about the activation of Russian troops on the Zaporizhia front not only near Marfopol, but also near Malaya Tokmachka near Orekhov. At the moment, this looks like preparation for more active military actions in the near future, on the part of the Russian Armed Forces, but for now, the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is being tested in different places.
In addition, the least intense fighting is currently taking place in Zaporizhia, although part of the most powerful Russian group of troops is stationed there. And if Ukrainian troops do not advance on Energodar, then the Russian army can use its forces in the offensive within the framework of the current Russian strategy of pressure along the entire front at once.
In addition, Ukrainian forces have tied down their reserves in the Kursk direction, having thrown all their airborne assault brigades there, and at least one combat-ready brigade from Rabotino has been transferred to Pokrovsk in Selidovo, that is, in general, the Ukrainian army has weakened its defense in the Zaporizhia region.
So if the Russian command considers that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have no reserves and no plans to launch a new offensive, and all available forces are already involved in the operation in the Kursk region, then they will strike. And this may probably happen in the near future, thereby opening a new direction in the offensive.

https://t.me/the_military_analytics/20896

Posted by: Down South | Sep 20 2024 6:40 utc | 220

In the Kupyansk direction, in the area near Peschanoye, there has been a “creeping offensive” of the Russian Armed Forces lately.
A wedge has appeared here with the help of which Russian troops can cut off the Kupyansk-Borovaya road. The offensive is moving towards the junction of the river and the non-existent reservoir (the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station is not the only one that was destroyed by military action). Of course, this does pose a threat to the Ukrainian group in terms of supplies, which could force the Ukrainian Armed Forces to retreat beyond Oskol.
However, the formation of such a ledge forming a fire pocket creates a risk of getting into a cauldron for the advancing forces of the Russian Armed Forces, since the advancing Russian units are biting deep in a fairly narrow strip, not paying attention to the flanks, while the units adjacent to them are standing still. Therefore, with a sufficiently serious blow to the flank, the Ukrainian troops will be able to cut them off and create a cauldron.
It is worth noting that this offensive is already “washing out” the personnel of the Russian Armed Forces, since logistics created as a result of the penetration of Russian forces into the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is a narrow strip, and the supply of the forward units here goes along the “road of death”, on which a lot of broken armored vehicles and casualties of the Russian army personnel have already accumulated.
As the operational surveillance footage shows, the supply of the Russian Armed Forces here is carried out either on foot or on motorcycles. Which is extremely unreliable and entails serious losses. Hence, the advancing units of the Russian Federation have poor supplies, both in provisions and ammunition.
Why don’t the Ukrainian forces tighten this fire pocket? Probably, the problem for the Ukrainian Armed Forces here is the lack of reserves, since some of the most trained units from this direction have been transferred to the Kursk operation. Therefore, the Ukrainian army here applied the tactics of gradually “knocking out” and exhausting the Russian Armed Forces.

https://t.me/the_military_analytics/20898

Posted by: Down South | Sep 20 2024 6:42 utc | 221

RT is a very strange group.
And they found themselves in a very strange niche. I could write a book on them.

Posted by: MaryPeck | Sep 20 2024 6:48 utc | 222

Massive Explosion of Russian Arms Depot Leaves Unanswered Questions
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2024/09/20/wrov-s20.html
“…Moreover, the town is significantly closer to Latvia, a NATO member, than it is to Ukraine, leading to speculation – as yet without evidence – that the strike could have been launched from Latvia.”

Posted by: j | Sep 20 2024 7:01 utc | 223

5) Ever notice how all the pro-Russian accounts seem to be coming from those who live in the USA? Ever notice how most of them are U.S. intelligence operatives? They are the ONLY ones on earth who rave about Russian military tech. The only ones. I can speak Russian and the mood in Russia is very pessimistic.
6) Russia is on the brink of collapse. Missile strikes will hit the center of Moscow in 2025. Russian missile tech is another scam. If the tech is so amazing why are the bridges still standing? Why is Russia so impotent? Maybe, just maybe, Russia cannot do what some of you were led to believe they could do. Maybe, just maybe, those Western intelligence operatives in America lied to you.
Posted by: The Kaker | Sep 19 2024 18:00 utc | 72
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.
.
Rarely have I read such nonsense!
What kind of troll are you, someone who knows NOTHING, someone who has never met a Russian, let alone been to Russia, but writes such rubbish.
Question, can you even find Ukraine on the map?
Hint: the country that is 5 times the size of America is Russia

Posted by: ossi | Sep 20 2024 7:19 utc | 224

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 19 2024 23:28 utc | 165
Oh yes, for sure for sure. Once in, always in. It’s a for us or against us thing. I mused at the time that it was like us sending 50 x FJ Holdens to the Western Front! Lol.
PS I did look and look for your general post cos I was interested, but found nothing. Even the dumbarse MoA search function showed nothing. [Shrug]

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Sep 20 2024 7:29 utc | 225

#214
It was ammo in soft storage or out in the open. Anything which causes an initital explosion, be it a drone or even falling debris can be enough to set a whole stack off.
Also if it was a cruise missile, you can be sure that the Russian military would have reacted.

Posted by: darkmoon | Sep 20 2024 7:45 utc | 226

It was ammo in soft storage or out in the open. Anything which causes an initital explosion, be it a drone or even falling debris can be enough to set a whole stack off.
Also if it was a cruise missile, you can be sure that the Russian military would have reacted.
Posted by: darkmoon | Sep 20 2024 7:45 utc | 227
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As I have already written, a lot of ammunition is stored there in the open, mainly old stocks from the deepest Soviet times. Newer ammunition has also been stored underground or in bunkers since around 2008. AND… assume that there is at least a basic anti-aircraft system, which is of course relatively powerless against low-flying drones. During my active time I was able to visit several ammunition depots, including the one in Transnistria which is at least 4 times as big and the largest ammunition depot on European soil, in each one there was anti-aircraft defense.

Posted by: ossi | Sep 20 2024 8:01 utc | 227

Selidovo-Kurakhovskoye direction as of the morning of 20.09.24…
Heavy fighting continues here in several locations at once.
The first location is north of Tsukurino. Here our units are preparing to storm a strong enemy fortified area based on the Selidovskaya mine. Artillery and aviation are working. Our forces are not yet launching a serious assault. But judging by their actions, it will be soon. Maybe even today.
We are carrying out the same actions in Tsukurino itself and to the south, in the area of ​​another abandoned mine.
The second location is the city of Gornyak, for which a fierce battle is underway. A full-scale assault is already underway here. On our side, there are several occupied blocks. But the enemy is stubborn and has not yet retreated to the line of “mines” in the southwestern part of the city. Apparently, the experience of Ukrainsk, where such tactics were used, was considered unsuccessful. Or maybe Kyiv politicians interfered.
The surrender of several cities in Donbass on the eve of important negotiations on American aid is clearly “not in their style”.
The third location is located beyond the Volchya River, where our units, having managed to completely occupy Ostroe, concentrated their efforts on storming the village of Alexandropol located northeast.
Also part of this large battle (to push the Ukrainian Armed Forces beyond the Volchya River) are the battles in Zhelannoye Vtoroye. So far, the enemy is holding this position.
We keep our fingers crossed and pray for the guys.

https://t.me/geromanat/34968

Posted by: Down South | Sep 20 2024 8:13 utc | 228

unimperator @ Sep 19 2024 19:19 utc | 97

The most likely explanation is AFU has very little to no fire support available to support in this region. A lot of units are already broken, isolated by Russian advances, some are scattered in fields and forests behind the line, and the main line is getting hammered with bombs and artillery.

There was a video on Telegram the other day with Russian field artillery calmly giving an interview in their emplacement while firing downrange. Not a care in the world, no shoot-and-scoot, no looks to the sky. If that wasn’t entirely staged it shows the safety net the forces have built.
On the other side you see any vehicle poking it’s nose out of tree cover immediately targeted, recon drones watching miles of territory at a time. None of the NATO doctrine works in this environment.
All the German support for 397.000.000 EUR does not supply a brigade that gets wasted every second week. Just look at the materials list that would be a 70ies brigade even, Leopard 1’s are purely mechanical and hydraulic, just a step from winding a wheel to rotate the turret, none of the stabilisers Leo 2 has, not that these matter any more.
The German drones are a joke too, entirely unproven handcrafted bullshit and no integration with any fire control system.
And that is before Putins statements about arms supply. I, for one, welcome our Russian overlords..

Posted by: SOS | Sep 20 2024 8:13 utc | 229

@Down South
Every time Yermak, a real Svengali, gets a hissy-fit some poor minister or general bites the dust. A most deplorable character … who will get his just deserts in the end …
@Honzo
I posted the link to the Sonar21 piece in the Open Thread …. an incredible vulnerability … I read it to the end … makes on pine for the simpler life of The Neandethals … whose shelf-life span looks to be much greater than Homo (non)Sapiens will achieve … we are clearly an existential threat to ourselves

Posted by: Don Firineach | Sep 20 2024 8:19 utc | 230

Russia’s Investigative Committee identifies suspects in murder of Sputnik’s Russell Bentley
The Russian Investigative Committee has wrapped up the preliminary investigation into the murder of Russell Bentley, 64, a US-born Donbass volunteer and Sputnik correspondent.
Suspects involved in the criminal case were identified as Russian Armed Forces servicemen Vitaly Vansyatsky, Vladislav Agaltsev, Vladimir Bazhin, and Andrey Iordanov. The individuals have been accused of felonies under Russia’s Criminal Code, including the use of physical violence and torture, which resulted in the death of the victim through negligence, as well as the concealment of an especially grievous crime.
On April 8, Russian military servicemen Vansyatsky, Agaltsev, and Iordanov used physical violence and torture against Russell Bentley in Donetsk, which led to the correspondent’s death. On the same day, Vansyatsky and Agaltsev blew up a VAZ 2115 car with Bentley’s body with TNT explosives.
On April 9, Bazhin, a serviceman from the same military unit removed Bentley’s remains from the scene on the instructions of Vansyatsky in a bid to conceal the heinous crime. The accused have been provided with the materials of criminal case. Subsequently, the case will be transferred for the indictment approval and court hearings.
Bentley went to Donbass in 2014 and joined the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) militia using the call sign Texas. He said that he admired the courage of the Donbass defenders and called Donetsk his home. The US-born volunteer was granted Russian citizenship and began collaborating with Sputnik as a correspondent. He was known as an outspoken supporter of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine.
In mid-April, Bentley went missing in Donetsk. On April 19, Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of Rossiya Segodnya, Sputnik’s parent media group, announced that the 64-year-old had died. An investigation into the circumstances of Bentley’s death was launched by the Russian Investigative Committee.
“>https://t.me/rocknrollgeopolitics/12785

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 20 2024 9:05 utc | 231

You keep selling to hard. Soften you pitch.
Posted by: too scents | Sep 19 2024 21:42 utc | 135

There’s no pitch, I’m not selling anything. I worked out long ago that, with many here, wishful thinking’s transmuted into a quite brazen lack of intellectual integrity and a preference for the cynical pitches of ludicrous hucksters.
We’re now at the point where Ukrainians being intentionally sent to their deaths by corrupt, imbecilic, plausibly treasonous command – aided, abetted and actively protected by senior command – would elicit a frank discussion of the phenomena on at least humanitarian grounds, while the converse is perceived as a species of wrongthink.
Another minimalist summary, or is it a hard sell:
https://t.me/philologist_zov/1439

Readers of Andrey Filatov’s channel are generally aware of the situation with Bely, the commander of the “Storm” detachment of the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, currently operating in the Kurakhovsky direction. Yana Poplavskaya has also actively joined this problem .
Meanwhile, as comrade TSS rightly noted , the forces of certain media resources (a very illustrative selection was made by comrades from Verum Regnum , not to mention the ongoing nightingale hysterics, etc.), allegedly concerned with alleged attempts to destroy the command system , are now thrown into washing away the reputation of the commander of the 87th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade Puzik (ed: commander of “Ernest” and “Goodwin”), while completely ignoring the arrest of Bely, who for the second time (the first was in the “Storm” detachment of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade) distinguished himself by establishing virtually exemplary assault work.
That is, It is quite obvious that the functionaries behind the instructions to these media resources are concerned in fact exclusively with the defense of their burning asses, but not with ensuring the restoration of order in the active army and around it and the systematic establishment of normal combat operations. Moreover, it makes sense to separately note that drug trafficking is involved in both cases.
What is characteristic is that cases of the implementation of information collected during the ongoing audit of the defense department, which is being conducted by Belousov’s team, are quite normally brought out into the public sphere. In particular, from the recent we have the initiation by the Investigative Committee of a criminal case for receiving a bribe on an especially large scale against the head of the armored service of the Central Military District, Major General Denis Putilov.
Thus, we are observing multidirectional vectors both within the defense department itself and the state system as a whole, which in every way hints at a tough internal confrontation between different groups of influence within the system.
The vector of hushing up the most acute problems in the active army, narrowing the possibilities of communication between the active army and civil society, fierce attacks on the informal part of the volunteer community, whitewashing incompetent cannibals in uniform, etc. is extremely dangerous and fraught with very unpleasant consequences.

Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 20 2024 9:07 utc | 232

Nicolai Lilin on his YT a while back did a good expose’ on Yermak, apparently Yermak is the one running the show in Ukraine.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 20 2024 9:10 utc | 233

As to why drop a nuke at all, simply to send a message to Russia that they are ready to play hardball.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Sep 19 2024 21:19 utc | 128
So what if the Russians were already playing “hardball” but NATO generals just had their heads too far up their own asses to understand what the likes of Putin and Lavarov have been telling them?
Imagine dropping a tiny nuke as a demonstration only to have 2-3000 city killers fired back at you?
Think about it … no one wants to be the first to use nuclear weapons because the second guy who uses them is going to make dam sure there won’t be a chance for a third use.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Sep 20 2024 9:17 utc | 234

Hundreds Of NATO Personnel Confirmed Dead After Another Failed ‘Ukrainian War Safari’

The Russian military has conducted numerous long-range precision strikes at NATO personnel in Ukraine. Earlier this month, military facilities in Poltava and Lvov were struck by Moscow’s hypersonic missiles, resulting in hundreds of casualties. Back in early August, at least 400 (mostly French) personnel were killed or wounded in a precision strike. The “Iskander-M” missile system is commonly used for such strikes, while NATO-sourced missiles and other weapons (particularly the HIMARS/M270 and ATACMS) are regular targets for the Russian military. There have even been attempts to portray NATO personnel as “advisers”, a futile, last-ditch effort to save them from the Kremlin’s wrath. From time to time, Moscow also sends very clear messages regarding the world’s most vile racketeering cartel’s direct involvement in Ukraine, including in the westernmost parts of the unfortunate NATO-occupied country.
However, instead of finally leaving the country, foreign personnel keep coming, foolishly thinking that fighting the Russian military is akin to playing Call of Duty or some other FPS video game. All of them then learn the lesson the hard way after coming to Ukraine with unrealistic expectations of what actual warfare is. They usually end up maimed for life or (if they’re really lucky) they might escape with no major physical injuries, but still end up with severe cases of PTSD. The Kremlin will certainly give no quarter to such people, as they’re only contributing to the protraction of the NATO-orchestrated Ukrainian conflict. The Russian military is increasingly using top-notch systems to strike the latest Western-made weapons. The French are particularly affected by this. Namely, on September 4, a precision strike was launched at the positions of NATO personnel in the city of Krivoy Rog.
According to various reports, upwards of 250 soldiers were neutralized. Such high-precision strikes are a regular occurrence. Obviously, the Neo-Nazi junta and the mainstream propaganda machine tried hiding this with claims that the Arena Hotel in the city was “packed with civilians” and that “the attack damaged a civilian facility, injuring 5 people, including one child”. However, local sources reported that the area was “immediately cordoned off and the rubble was cleared”. It soon turned out that the bodies of “civilians” who were recovered from under the rubble were not those of hotel employees and tourists, but of military personnel, including numerous Europeans, mainly the French, Romanians and Poles. Around 250 bodies were transported to the morgue in five refrigerated trucks, an “unfortunate” end of yet another “Ukrainian war safari” for NATO occupation forces and soldiers of fortune.
According to the Russian military sources, the combined missile and drone strike on the facilities of the Kiev regime involved Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers/missile carriers, as well as MiG-31K/I strike fighters equipped with 9-A-7660 “Kinzhal” systems and armed with 9-S-7760 hypersonic missiles. These assets were also supported by Black Sea Fleet ships carrying “Kalibr” cruise missiles. Expectedly, the Neo-Nazi junta and its mainstream propaganda machine collaborators often claim that the Kremlin “deliberately targets civilian infrastructure”. However, using civilian facilities such as sports venues, hotels and even schools and kindergartens is a common practice for the accommodation of foreign personnel in Ukraine. In addition, if Russia keeps “running out of weapons”, what sense does it make to use these allegedly “scarce weapons” to attack civilians and non-military infrastructure?
The Kiev regime is desperate for more personnel as its already atrociously large number of casualties keeps stacking up. It’s going as far as trying to attract NATO-backed terrorists from Turkish-occupied Syrian Idlib province, where they’re even conducting joint operations against the Russian military. In addition, the Neo-Nazi junta keeps lying about the performance of its air defenses, insisting that it’s “most successful” against the best and latest Russian weapons, including hypersonic missiles. However, if these claims were true, Moscow certainly wouldn’t be able to conduct such large-scale, long-range precision strikes on targets across Ukraine, one of the largest countries in Europe. NATO is powerless to prevent the Russian military from obliterating Western personnel, so it keeps escalating tensions in Europe in other ways, including by supporting long-range strikes within Russia.
The world’s most vile racketeering cartel also supported the Kursk oblast (region) incursion in hopes of shifting attention away from the Kiev regime’s massive losses in the Donbass, where the Russian military keeps advancing in multiple operational directions. It should be noted that the Kursk incursion demonstrated the unadulterated Neo-Nazi nature of the NATO-backed puppets in Kiev, as they’ve committed heinous war crimes against civilians in the region. Foreign personnel also actively took part in this attack, demonstrating the importance of eliminating all of them with little to no mercy, as they would otherwise commit atrocities against Russian civilians. NATO keeps trying to provoke Moscow’s reaction precisely by attacking non-combatants across Russia, be it in concert venues or beaches packed with tourists. The Kremlin immediately reacted, preventing further bloodshed.
However, Russia will soon need to act even more decisively, as the political West keeps ignoring the Kremlin’s warnings about the possibility of a direct confrontation between NATO and the Eurasian giant, particularly if the former continues to use its ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) assets to enable long-range strikes within the country. Unable to win a real shooting war with Russia, the political West is looking for alternative ways to inflict as much damage as possible, effectively waging a total war against Moscow. NATO personnel operating in Ukraine are instrumental in this Barbarossa-like crawling invasion, which is why the Kremlin sees them as high-priority targets. The Russian military will keep hunting them and more such attacks can be expected in the following months, particularly as Moscow’s intelligence apparatus is working round the clock to locate foreign personnel.
https://southfront.press/hundreds-of-nato-personnel-confirmed-dead-after-another-failed-ukrainian-war-safari/

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 20 2024 9:28 utc | 235

Kursk direction as of the morning of 20.09.24: fighting continues…
The fighting in the area is becoming more and more fierce and is drawing in more and more of both our and the enemy’s reserves.
It is very difficult for both us and the enemy to advance (due to the fact that the best drone aces are working here on both sides).
Our units are trying to break through the enemy’s defenses along the Dar’ino – Nikolayevo-Daryino line. Unfortunately, contrary to our earlier statement, as of this morning we do not fully control these settlements. The fighting for them is still ongoing. Ours are trying to create a bridgehead on the other bank of the Snagost River in order to attack Sverdlikovo from it, without ending their attacks in the Lyubimovka area (but less active than before). The movement is very difficult. Literally hundreds of meters a day.
Our attempts to break through the enemy front south of Sudzha have also stalled.
The enemy, in turn, continues to try to penetrate our advancing forces from the rear in the Glushkovsky district. Despite the introduction of significant and high-quality units into the battle, they have not yet been able to develop their success in the Vesyoloye area. All their attacks are repelled with the same result so far – destruction or flight. Information is coming in about the transfer of more and more enemy units here, which allows us to assume that these attacks will continue.
We keep our fingers crossed and pray for the guys.

https://t.me/geromanat/34985

Posted by: Down South | Sep 20 2024 9:32 utc | 236

The reason they would want to keep a lid is because the Khmelnitsky weapon depot was hit with a similar device in 2023. The two explosions look exactly the same, plasma as hot as the sun falling from the mushroom.
Most likely both sides have very low yield and negligible radiation devices which might have been used. Tit-for-tat.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 19 2024 21:06 utc | 124
All nuclear detonations release a pulse of blinding white light brighter than the sun regardless of the size of the explosion … there was no pulse of light from Khmelnitsky therefore no nuclear explosion. There is no way to shield or hide this effect it’s just the way a nuclear reaction works.
Besides that if a nuclear device was even suspected of being used against Ukraine it would have been all over the media. The west has never shied away from making out that Putin’s an evil dictator so why when gifted by the ultimate evil dictator move of using nuclear weapons against innocents would the USA / Ukraine not make political hay over the use of a Russian nukes? It’s a propaganda gift for them.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Sep 20 2024 9:41 utc | 237

MaryPeck @ 223

RT is a very strange group. And they found themselves in a very strange niche. I could write a book on them.

RT is simple pop Russian oriented infotainment for non Russians, it’s totally western msm structured, personality driven and somewhat challenging in a short and superficial way, not without worth or charm, at least compared to anything else in western msm.
RT USA & UK was very much made up of cold war dissident exiles still fighting the good fight like Hedges and Larry King, with a mix of hip alt. youngsters like Lee Camp, Rachel Blevins, and several others, between those parameters, established geezers and hipsters, they figured they could cover the spectrum. I actually enjoyed RT USA and UK it was fine infotainment and miles ahead of the crude miserable snake pit USA and UK infotainment had become.
Doctorow in a recent YT interview heavily criticized RT and Simonyan for being entirely pop and western oriented and that it would have been much more constructive and influential if they simply took plentiful very good in depth discussions from Russian TV, dubbed those for the various markets, and presented the Russian point of view straight up. I can see why Doctorow being an intellectual and academic would prefer that, but I don’t think that was ever the point, and it would have flopped big time, at very best preaching to the already informed and converted. Maybe a mix, after midnight night and Sunday morning RT could have presented original dubbed Russian programing for the intellectual crowd that doesn’t have to get up early in the mornings: retirees, slackers on the late shift, college students, and the not-unhappily unemployed.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 20 2024 9:50 utc | 238

Estonia to start producing air defense systems in Ukraine
A new Estonian defense company, Frankenburg Technologies, founded in January 2024, announced the start of production of innovative and inexpensive anti-aircraft missile systems in Ukraine. The main task of these systems will be protection against unmanned aerial vehicles, Bloomberg reports.
The company was created with the participation of leading experts from the Estonian defense and technology industry. Among its consultants is the former Commander of the Estonian Defense Forces Martin Heremä, who resigned in June of this year. The strategic investor in the project was the CEO of the Estonian company Milrem Robotics Kuldar Väärsi. This company is well known for its developments in the field of robotic systems for the defense sector.
Frankenburg Technologies was co-founded by Taavi Madiberk, CEO of Skeleton Technologies, a company that produces supercapacitors and is a technology partner of Siemens. In addition, one of the company’s indirect owners is one of Estonia’s richest businessmen, Margus Linnamäe.
Serhiy Koshman, who previously worked as an expert in the Office of the President of Ukraine and in Nokia Siemens Networks, was appointed CEO of Frankenburg Technologies in Ukraine.
link

Posted by: Justpassinby | Sep 20 2024 9:56 utc | 239

Posted by: Newbie | Sep 18 2024 12:39 utc | 601
that was understandable – at least from a topographical point of view
for me, these statements are not the same
“…I mentioned riding the E105 to Dnipro and branching north and south…” ( which comment ? )
AND
“…I just meant a 40 kms drive north (through the E105) BY THE LEFT BANK and take and cross at zaporizhzhia…”
“…Then on the right bank a fork, H23 nikopol and H08 Dnipro…”
How long do you think it will take to cover these 40 km AND then take Zaporizhia AND cross the Dnieper?

Posted by: ghiwen | Sep 20 2024 10:08 utc | 240

Posted by: vargas | Sep 19 2024 17:50 utc | 66
……………………………………………………………………….
vargas | Sep 10 2024 12:10 utc | 412 — “…I must say, I always listen what Dima says, as he is my only source of information…”
vargas | Sep 12 2024 19:59 utc | 71 — We should spend as much time as possible with family and friends
he is still here — no time for family and friends
or he has NO family and friends

Posted by: ghiwen | Sep 20 2024 10:09 utc | 241

Also notable was the fact of destruction of Leopard 2A5 near #Sheptukhovka in Korenevsky district, more than 25 km from the border (the area of the ‘old’ AFU breakthrough), which indicates that the enemy is using quite rare #NATO equipment in the #Kursk operation. Yesterday morning it was reported that the Russian Army had liberated #NikolayevoDaryino and #Daryino.
Posted by: Down South | Sep 20 2024 6:32 utc | 215
It is very difficult for both us and the enemy to advance (due to the fact that the best drone aces are working here on both sides).
Our units are trying to break through the enemy’s defenses along the Dar’ino – Nikolayevo-Daryino line. Unfortunately, contrary to our earlier statement, as of this morning we do not fully control these settlements.
Our attempts to break through the enemy front south of Sudzha have also stalled.
The enemy, in turn, continues to try to penetrate our advancing forces from the rear in the Glushkovsky district. Despite the introduction of significant and high-quality units into the battle, they have not yet been able to develop their success in the Vesyoloye area. All their attacks are repelled with the same result so far – destruction or flight. Information is coming in about the transfer of more and more enemy units here, which allows us to assume that these attacks will continue.
Posted by: Down South | Sep 20 2024 9:32 utc | 237
So, in a nutshell, RF has a 17 km radius from komarova that seems difficult to extend right now.That is the main squeeze, neither the east nor the north have consolidated and AFU keeps it’s 21 km radius from basivka (except where overlapping where it lost) and still sends some probes mainly northward.
I’d say RF is going for weedges, first cut the roads internally then externally, 12 kms to go but it’s getting difficult.

Posted by: Newbie | Sep 20 2024 10:32 utc | 242

Posted by: Justpassinby | Sep 20 2024 9:56 utc | 240
————–
Sounds like an utter scam, particularly given that Estonia is a glorified micro-state. With about a million people.
They ain’t producing no droids anytime soon…

Posted by: Urban Fox | Sep 20 2024 10:36 utc | 243

Yet more US sanctions upon Russian oil exports just announced.
Beyond tactically and territorially winning the SMO, Russia is gunna have to find ways to get sanctions removed or at least lessened — at some stage. It’s all very well to parrot “Ah, but Russia has found new markets to its east”. But the fact remains that sanctions are stalling/weakening Russian commercial interests, globally. Might Russian growth stagnate to a dangerous level?
I see America keeping sanctions on forever. It may not have a destructive outcome, but will certainly have a repressive one. Or will relief come as the US cuts off its own tail? Or might China help out Russia by reverse sanctions and tariffs upon US interests?
SOMETHING has to be done to thwart this whole sanctions-as-weapons syndrome the US uses. Is de-dollarisation the only way?

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Sep 20 2024 10:52 utc | 244

How long do you think it will take to cover these 40 km AND then take Zaporizhia AND cross the Dnieper?
Posted by: ghiwen | Sep 20 2024 10:08 utc | 241
Depends on the operation at hand, not as many troops in Zaporizhia proper and fewer still on the way.
Any movement to reinforce by AFU would expose them to FABs and missiles.
Any attempt to use the f16 would likely place them within AD range.
Crossing the river at Zaporizhia is basically a 40 km thing. We have seen that it is doable with a 10k spear-point for D1.
If you get Veselyanka/Hyrorivka on D1 and consolidate it seriously then any reinforcements from the east would be banzai charges…(and weakening a line that is already being circumvented)
Sonyachne district west bank by D+3 and then it’s logistics and air superiority (don’t know how the train lines along the dnieper are, but might be worth risking).
D2 could be a bitch.
Come on, this is just a napkin plaything, but I’d rather play this one than kursk, even intermediate stages have worthwhile objectives control-wise 😀

Posted by: Newbie | Sep 20 2024 11:05 utc | 245

Jake Blanchard @ 245

SOMETHING has to be done to thwart this whole sanctions-as-weapons syndrome the US uses. Is de-dollarisation the only way?

Someone here around the start of the SMO said, and I paraphrase and embellish: they are building a new iron curtain but this time the resources, technology, industry, capital, and markets are all on the other side of the curtain.
There it is right there. It’s not 1945, history doesn’t repeat, if you’re betting on the USA you’ll lose your money.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 20 2024 11:24 utc | 246

Is de-dollarisation the only way?
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Sep 20 2024 10:52 utc | 245
De-dollarisation is not a road : it’s a market fact. Arabs are selling crude in Yuan because China has something to sell for those Yuans. What can the US sell that the Arabs would need dollars for ? “Vaccines” ? F35 ? Freezable US Treasuries ?
US produces 10M Barrels/day with shrinking volumes and consumes 18 of them. Let them eat cake…

Posted by: Savonarole | Sep 20 2024 11:27 utc | 247

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/#post-colonelcassad-9393759
“The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation reported that the investigation into the murder of Russell Bentley (call sign ‘Texas’) has been completed.
“The plot was as follows – four soldiers of the 5th Brigade of the 51st Army mistook Bentley for an American spy, tortured him, he died from the torture. When the morons realised what they had done, they put the body in a car and blew up with TNT to hide the traces of the crime. Despite cries that the case would be dropped, the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation brought the case to trial. We are waiting for the trial and the verdict.”
Translated with DeepL.com

Posted by: Waldorf | Sep 20 2024 11:28 utc | 248

NATO chief says ‘best and strongest security guarantee’ for Ukraine is
Article 5. Jens Stoltenberg says ‘the way’ to ensure Russia ends its war is membership for Kyiv

It is obvious that Russia can’t avoid the war with NATO. It could have avoided it if it had used n. weapons before.
Now Russia shall be forced to skip many steps on the escalation ladder.

Posted by: vargas | Sep 20 2024 11:29 utc | 249

“NATO chief says ‘best and strongest security guarantee’ for Ukraine is
Article 5. Jens Stoltenberg says ‘the way’ to ensure Russia ends its war is membership for Kyiv
It is obvious that Russia can’t avoid the war with NATO. It could have avoided it if it had used n. weapons before.
Now Russia shall be forced to skip many steps on the escalation ladder.”
Posted by: vargas | Sep 20 2024 11:29 utc | 251
I have changed my mind on your posts; they can be very helpful.
Your posts are 100% counter-intuitive : whatever your posts say, the opposite is true.
Thanks

Posted by: canuck | Sep 20 2024 11:42 utc | 250

Ukraine Weekly Update, 20th September 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-006

Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Sep 20 2024 11:43 utc | 251

Just to add to @248, more riches accumulating on the far side of the new Iron Curtain. That’s the collective suicide by autoerotic asphyxiation of the west, a dangerous pleasure, and all their weapons and demon armies won’t stop history:

CERN is expelling hundreds of Russian scientists from Switzerland. Excellent. They will all be received with open arms in Asia.
“>https://t.me/rocknrollgeopolitics/12796

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 20 2024 11:43 utc | 252

“Is de-dollarisation the only way?”
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Sep 20 2024 10:52 utc | 245
“De-dollarisation is not a road : it’s a market fact. Arabs are selling crude in Yuan because China has something to sell for those Yuans. What can the US sell that the Arabs would need dollars for ? “Vaccines” ? F35 ? Freezable US Treasuries ?
US produces 10M Barrels/day with shrinking volumes and consumes 18 of them. Let them eat cake…”
Posted by: Savonarole | Sep 20 2024 11:27 utc | 249
I agree with you post but the US oil production is much more than 10MM b/d:
“Preliminary data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed oil companies pumped an average of 13.4 million barrels a day from U.S. oil fields during the week ended Aug 7, 2024”

Posted by: canuck | Sep 20 2024 11:45 utc | 253

Posted by: vargas | Sep 20 2024 11:29 utc | 251
Forget Dima, you should go and read Pepe Escobar’s latest piece at Strategic Culture Foundation: https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/09/18/this-aint-no-wwiii-this-is-a-war-of-terror/

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 20 2024 11:46 utc | 254

Posted by: vargas | Sep 20 2024 11:29 utc | 251
Article 5 is substantially a joke. Stolkenberg is wrong, or acting.
Article 5 is a voluntary option not a must.
If tomorrow Estonian minions would be attacked from RF all the other countries can simply say, OK, we will send you x weapons, more or less what’s happening now for Ukraine.
Even the ‘mighty’ POTUS will need to ask the congress before taking any action.
It would be nice to see Hungary say, we will provide some antis hoot jackets, Turkey saying we will provide a dozen of bayraktar, Greece following with we can’t provide anything because we need to protect us from Turkey.
Popcorn for everyone.

Posted by: Mario | Sep 20 2024 12:02 utc | 255

anon2020 @233: “I worked out long ago that, with many here…”
What is the general rule I have mentioned numerous times, dear readers? When a poster denigrates not a specific other poster, but the MoA community in general, you are 100% certain to be dealing with a paid troll.
If one believes the community is so stupid and backwards, then why come here and post so much? What could be the attraction other than a salary (or piecework pay, depending upon the contract)?
I have suspected this poster for some time, but once that holier-than-thou, resentment-of-the-community tone came out in the above post, I became certain. This poster is shilling narrative for cash.

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 20 2024 12:29 utc | 256

Posted by: ossi | Sep 19 2024 16:48 utc | 58
https://en.armradio.am/2019/07/24/ali-kemal-boris-johnsons-great-grandfather-lynched-for-condemning-armenian-genocide/
Boris Johnson ancestors include Turkish Ali Kemal who died tortured and lynched by a crowd.
Might be the unconcious goal of warmongering Boris?

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Sep 20 2024 12:41 utc | 257

Posted by: vargas | Sep 20 2024 11:29 utc | 251
Forget Dima, you should go and read Pepe Escobar’s latest piece at Strategic Culture Foundation: https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/09/18/this-aint-no-wwiii-this-is-a-war-of-terror/
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 20 2024 11:46 utc | 256
Thanks, Nice post but, Dima is really on the spot.
Nobody can marginalize Dima.
He is not speculating. He knows.
Today. he says that Ukraine draws NATO into War.
Ursula was in Ukraine.
It is like a train that cannot stop.

Posted by: vargas | Sep 20 2024 12:43 utc | 258

William Gruff | Sep 20 2024 12:29 utc | 261
Yep. It came out with Kursk, scavenging through the Russian TG gutter trash for anything running down Russian military leadership, his main targets Shoigu and Gerasimov.
He’s a trashbag himself.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 20 2024 12:57 utc | 259

canuck | Sep 20 2024 11:45 utc | 255
US importing oil, or the amount it imported stumped me for a bit until I found US produces a lot of very light oil mainly from fracking. For diesel and anything heavier, it must import.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 20 2024 13:02 utc | 260

”Nukes are magical, and everyone in the whole wide world will be psychically notified instantly if one goes off!”
Uh, no.
” But muh super-bright flash!”
Is just light. Some of the EM radiation from the criticality of a tactical sized device can pass through a limited amount of solid matter, but not the visible light. If the device is in a ”bunker buster” casing and detonates some meters underground, then the initial flash of light will be absorbed by the surrounding material. Sure, the energy from the light will get reemitted at lower frequencies, but it won’t be visible light.
So no fucking flash, people! Like at Beirut back in 2020.
And no, the background radiation does not go up instantly all around the world when a tactical scale nuke is detonated. It depends upon weather conditions and wind direction whether you can detect it at all.
And no again, tactical nukes need not make huge, Krakatoa explosions. The B61 (most common in use by the US) can be ”dialed down” to 0.3kt… equivalent to 300 tons of TNT. Still pretty big, but not what most people seem to imagine when they think of nukes. 300 tons of TNT will break a lot of windows if set off in a city, but will barely level an entire city block. You’d need hundreds of them to flatten a moderately large city.
Seems to be a lot of mysticism and misinformation surrounding nukes.

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 20 2024 13:05 utc | 261

When kidnapped Ukraine conscripts start spraying NATO overlords it will be over

Posted by: Joe | Sep 20 2024 13:08 utc | 262

Posted by: vargas | Sep 20 2024 12:43 utc | 263
Yup, Dima knows everything. Like that video back in January titled “Austin wounded in Kyiv.”
Old Raytheon Lloyd wasn’t hit, turned out to be just false rumors that Dima scraped off of TG without doing any real journalism.
I do appreciate his videos and they are generally reliable. Still, no one person is the authoritative source on the Ukraine-Russia war, and everyone screws the pooch once in a while. Even Simplicius, Big Serge, etc.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Sep 20 2024 13:17 utc | 263

I don’t account the “condensates” as “crude” , hence the difference :). You can’t make diesel fuel witch condensates.
Posted by: Savonarole | Sep 20 2024 12:08 utc | 259
It doesn’t matter the rest of the world counts it anyway.
https://peak oil barrel .com/us-june-oil-production-lower-than-november-2023/
Mindful that Diesel imported into the US from India comes from refined Russian Oil
When it comes to oil, global production of crude and condensate remains fairly stagnant, about 3 million barrels per day (Mb/d) below November 2018 levels. The U.S. Department of Energy’s one-year outlook revisions continue to assume we’ll be back to 2018 levels a year from now, but that’s hardly credible given that we’ve been hearing the refrain (“we’ll be back to 2018 levels in a year”) since at least 2022.
Of course, when you add to the accounting of what is called “all petroleum liquids” the category of “natural gas liquids”, which are mostly only used to make plastics, you get that we have recovered the levels of 2018. Misleading advertising to disguise the reality in which we are. And the fact is that, apart from the price of oil, the world has been in a situation of hardship for some time. A few days ago, Art Berman showed a very revealing graph : how much oil is in floating storage, that is, in tankers that are not circulating.
There is none – it is fast approaching ZERO spare.
There is virtually no margin, no oil stored in tankers, everything available is on the move. There are no reserves and no capacity to deal with unforeseen events. The last times this happened was in 2008, when the price of a barrel went to almost $150, and in 2022, when we reached $132. The price of oil has fluctuated a lot in recent weeks, sometimes up and sometimes down, but it is clear that they are trying to keep it at the $80/barrel that OPEC feels comfortable with, enough to offset its expenses and not too expensive to strangle the battered global economy. Despite this, European industry continues its process of destruction, especially in Germany, and manufacturing indicators in the European Union, the United States and China indicate a tendency towards contraction.
But, regardless of whether energy is cheap enough for a mass production industry (which it probably isn’t anymore, and that explains both the progressive European deindustrialisation and the persistent inflation), the decline in oil production is already having a very direct effect on the availability of fuels, and above all and most prominently, diesel.
https://crashoil-blogspot-com.translate.goog/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Posted by: Escobar | Sep 20 2024 13:25 utc | 264

Re the various arrests that are now occurring in the Russian military.
Back at the time of mobilization there was major problems. Rusted machinery never used since the great patriot war suddenly had start operating again.
Putin had a meeting with the mothers and wives. In that meeting a report listing problems was facing the mobilized was read to the President. After that meeting, Putin largely disappeared from sight for nearly a week. When he returned, mobilization was running like a well oiled machine.
I believe that at that time, Putin would have ordered the Russian investigative committee to start investigating these problems. The arrests we see now will be the results of a long running and very detailed investigation. Procurement…. a great deal of money now passing through procurement and plenty of temptation. The sums I have seen for corruption arrests are like a shop assistant taking some coins from the till in comparison. The problem is in the quality of what they procure and for what price. Somebody that takes a bribe is also susceptible to offers of cash for information. Essentially a potential traitor, though already a traitor to the people.
In China, Xi like with Putin is very close to the ordinary people, the peasants and the drive to pull them all out of abject poverty sooner than planned.
Under Xi, there was also a crackdown on corruption. In China most party officials found guilty of corruption receive the death sentence. They are a traitor to the people,the people they are bound to serve, not profit from, when joining the party.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 20 2024 13:28 utc | 265

the investigation into the murder of Russell Bentley (call sign ‘Texas’) has been completed.
Thanks @ Waldorf 249 for the news

Posted by: Escobar | Sep 20 2024 13:32 utc | 266

Waymad@213…..was it just a drone eh, well a phrase often heard on the battle field…..fire one round, for effect….so non essential ammo dump goes poof….for effect. Now had that been one of those bright flashie thingies, apparently that’s the signature, who’s gonna eat cold crow pie. Remember: for effect.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 20 2024 13:33 utc | 267

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjr3255gpjgo
This is about the high fatalities of russian soldiers, their virtually nonexistent training and octogenarian geriatric age range.

Among them, 13,781 were volunteers – about 20% – and fatalities among volunteers now exceed other categories. Former prisoners, who joined up in return for pardons for their crimes, were previously the highest but they now account for 19% of all confirmed deaths. Mobilised soldiers – citizens called up to fight – account for 13%.
Since October last year, weekly fatalities of volunteers have not dipped below 100 – and, in some weeks, we have recorded more than 310 volunteer deaths.
As for Ukraine – it rarely comments on the scale of its deaths on the battlefield. In February, its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed, but estimates based on US intelligence suggest greater losses.

And also

Many new recruits who have joined the military have criticised the training they have received. A man who signed a contract with the Russian army in November last year told the BBC he had been promised two weeks of training at a shooting range before deployment to the front.
“In reality, people were just thrown out onto the parade ground, and dished out some gear,” he said, adding the equipment was poorly made.

It’s worth reading the whole thing just to find out how completely wrong MoA is about everything. Russia has completely failed and will shortly implode, apparently. If only reality was scripted by the BBC, everything would be so much more sensible.

Posted by: Occasional poster | Sep 20 2024 13:41 utc | 268

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 19 2024 21:06 utc | 124

Posted by: Night Tripper | Sep 19 2024 21:02 utc | 123
Well, let’s hypothetically say it was a nuclear device.
The reason they would want to keep a lid is because the Khmelnitsky weapon depot was hit with a similar device in 2023. The two explosions look exactly the same, plasma as hot as the sun falling from the mushroom.
Most likely both sides have very low yield and negligible radiation devices which might have been used. Tit-for-tat.
Will we see an accident in a Polish or British depot next?

THAT’S simply crap !!! — like shadowbanned
btw — how can “…plasma as hot as the sun falling from the mushroom …” ?
as an example a chemical explosion
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkoBwFYitlU
Explosion of 500 t TNT – Navy test “Sailor Hat” Czech dub, please turn on english subtitle

Posted by: ghiwen | Sep 20 2024 13:43 utc | 269

Seems to be a lot of mysticism and misinformation surrounding nukes.
Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 20 2024 13:05 utc | 266
You certainly seem to be doing your share of spreading it. There is lower limit to the size of those bombs because of the criticality requirement of plutonium. Other wise it is just a dirty bomb or a fizzle. And yes there is a gamma flash along with neutrons both of which are weakly attenuated and are obviously not visible. The attendant scattering is obviously and is not something anyone would mistake for a conventional explosive. And yes, fallout is a thing and would be setting off alarms all over the place. The detectors in europe are quite sensitive.
The strangest thing about this is people inventing some ridiculous theory because in their mind if it a large explosion it has to be nuclear and follow it up with a bunch of reddit tier nonsense to justify the sensationalism.

Posted by: anonymous | Sep 20 2024 13:48 utc | 270

It’s worth reading the whole thing just to find out how completely wrong MoA is about everything. Russia has completely failed and will shortly implode, apparently. If only reality was scripted by the BBC, everything would be so much more sensible.
Posted by: Occasional poster | Sep 20 2024 13:41 utc | 269

Interesting argument. Do you have any facts to support this viewpoint? Otherwise it might seem to some that your post is a vain attempt to reassure yourself that your worldview is correct, even as reality increasingly intrudes.
I mean, you sound about 12. ‘Nuh-uh, everything you say is wrong!’. This is a particularly childish and imbecilic response. Perhaps be quiet when adults are speaking, you might learn something.
Ideas matter. Your sophistry is cheap.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Sep 20 2024 13:51 utc | 271

The strangest thing about this is people inventing some ridiculous theory because in their mind if it a large explosion it has to be nuclear and follow it up with a bunch of reddit tier nonsense to justify the sensationalism.
Posted by: anonymous | Sep 20 2024 13:48 utc | 271

Oh look! We are blessed with the presence of NAFOs own ‘Chemical Ali’! How’s ‘muh attrition going’, chief? Got some hot cope to post?

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Sep 20 2024 13:53 utc | 272

Apologies, incorrectly formatted. Of course the explosion wasn’t nuclear, including the earlier strike on the DU ammunition dump in Ukraone. They’re big conventional explosions.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Sep 20 2024 13:53 utc | 273

Apologies, as hopefully I don’t often do, I’ve misread intention by occasional and perhaps even anonymous..maybe a different anonymous. No offense intended. I’m going home, no I’m fine to drive thanks.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Sep 20 2024 13:56 utc | 274

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Sep 20 2024 13:53 utc | 273
Good Doctor, Sir, I believe that poster is not the same “anonymous” as our square-metre obsessed “Anonymous”, though the name choice obviously doesn’t help.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 20 2024 14:00 utc | 275

Re: Posted by: vargas | Sep 19 2024 19:39 utc | 103

NEW DELHI (Reuters) -Artillery shells sold by Indian arms makers have been diverted by European customers to Ukraine and New Delhi has not intervened to stop the trade despite protests from Moscow, according to 11 Indian and European government and defence industry officials, as well as a Reuters analysis of commercially available customs data.
no respect for Russia any more

I’m sure the Indians would say “Big deal. This is just business and doesn’t make any difference to the war, Russia should just get serious and end the war and this won’t be an issue.”

Posted by: Julian | Sep 20 2024 14:13 utc | 276

Posted by: The Kaker | Sep 19 2024 18:00 utc | 72
Russia is on the brink of collapse.
<=you are a little behind times that happened in 1991. Posted by: bored | Sep 19 2024 18:18 utc | 79 The Neo Cons and globalists are salivating. They gambled and won big time. They know Russia can't hold on much longer and they see its BRICS "allies" are also paper tigers. The dead Ukrainians mean nothing. And all the destruction to property in the war can be rebuilt with American/NATO contractors for big bucks. <=You are correct. The Neocon gamble will pay off. China, NK, Iran, the Global south, Yemen, and maybe even Turkey are on Stand by, waiting to keep Russia from be forced to go nuclear. The closer Russia gets to going nuclear the more likely its partners will join them in the war in order to prevent the destruction of the world by nuclear weapons. <=Russia has changed its nuclear policy.. North Korea has beefed up its nuclear weapons delivery methods and greatly improved its nuclear technology, its whole country is military. China is building war ships and has a monopoly on washing machine chips and high technology photonics, Russia has very good space technology and Iran is catching up fast. .. the closer Russia approaches failure, the stronger will become the support from its partners. IMO. The West is gambling with the lives of every human in the world. What then? Posted by: unimperator | Sep 19 2024 18:27 utc | 81 the west's ability to continue warring purely through Ukrainians is rapidly dwindling... evident by the attempt to get Poland, Estonia and Finland to attack <= this conclusion seems reasonable to me. . Posted by: Áobh Ó'Sheachnasaigh | Sep 19 2024 18:44 utc | 86 Am I mistaken in thinking that Russia cannot fully rely on allies such as China and Iran to be fully involved in military support, not in the same sense as NATO members according to Article 5. Article 5 The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area. <= Not mistaken, I think there is an inverted relationship. Russia success = 1/Russia's partners willingness to join the war. The weaker Russia becomes the more likely its partners will join to help. ... because its partners do not want anyone to engage humanity in nuclear warfare. Every win the West accomplishes against Russia increases the probability that Russian partners will join Russia in the proxy war in Ukraine, I believe each win by the Neocon west acts like blackmailing in that it invites Russia's partners (China, Iran,etc.) to join with Russia. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 19 2024 19:29 utc | 99 If Russia fails Iran will suffer a Carthaginian peace. I really doubt China and Iran will waver. <=great post.. everyone should read it.. I believe, there is little chance Russia's partners will not come to Russia's aid if the need presents itself. Remember the better Russia does, the less likely will its partners entertain participating in Ukraine, the weaker Russia becomes in Ukraine the more likely it will be that Russia's partners will join with Russia. Posted by: unimperator | Sep 19 2024 21:44 utc | 136 Just today US officials said they are preparing to fight China in 2027 <=this is another reason China will become more likely to join Russia the worse things get for Russia. Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 19 2024 22:07 utc | 139 we watch all this stuff and some ask "what is Russia waiting for?". <=exactly, IMO, its Russia's partners that don't want Russia to go nuclear.. that is restraining a Full Out Russian retaliation against the Neocon west. Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 19 2024 22:35 utc | 148 Russia is now in the position of being able to choose the time and place of its main war with NATO. <= i think the only thing holding a Russian response back is confirmation from its committed partners that there is no other choice.. If the partners agree with Russia no choice but nuclear weapons exist, they will join to strengthen conventional Russia IOT prevent a 29 minute nuclear war.. that makes losers out of everyone. Posted by: Larsbo | Sep 19 2024 22:57 utc | 153 what matters is that the USA attacked Russian territory .. <=I agree, if the report and subsequent findings are confirm NATO intentionally crossed the legal boundary of a Nation state sovereign; which means its aggression trespassed into Russian national Territory with purpose, fore thought and intention to cause its weapons to cause actual damage and actual damage is confirmed. Posted by: HB_Norica | Sep 20 2024 9:17 utc | 235 Imagine dropping a tiny nuke as a demonstration only to have 2-3000 city killers fired back at you? Think about it ... no one wants to be the first to use nuclear weapons because the second guy who uses them is going to make dam sure there won't be a chance for a third use. <=Yeph! its neocon risk taking versus human rationality. Posted by: Down South | Sep 20 2024 9:32 utc | 237 Russia will soon need to act even more decisively, as the political West keeps ignoring the Kremlin’s warnings about the possibility of a direct confrontation between NATO and the Eurasian giant, particularly if the former continues to use its ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) assets to enable long-range strikes within the country. <-Western participation only invites Russia's eastern partners to participate.

Posted by: snake | Sep 20 2024 14:46 utc | 277

Posted by: Escobar | Sep 20 2024 13:25 utc | 265
EU is another level. There is an epidemic of “the German Green Plague” in Brussels : just look at Annalina “360” Baerbock : this damn sickness turn the brain spongy and Feldgrau 🙂

Posted by: Savonarole | Sep 20 2024 14:49 utc | 278

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 20 2024 12:29 utc | 257
Not only is there no rule of thumb that’ll do the thinking for anyone, my remarks clearly refer only to a recognisable subset of commenters who roll along with almost any pro-RF hype, no matter how obviously deplorable the circumstances or inept and reform-worthy the protagonists.
But, by all means, if you can’t tell shit from shinola, have it your own way, dumbass.

Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 20 2024 15:53 utc | 279

TG of Russell “TEXAS” Bentley, still maintained by his wife. Contains the latest news on the official investigation into his death, as above, but also other interesting news about related events and their circle of contacts, which included the recently departed “Goodwin”, of whom she speaks highly.
It is absolutely characteristic that those who rubbished the credibly sourced news that Russell had fallen victim to rogue elements within Russia’s own armed forces still greet reality with the same unremedied handicaps.
I won’t summarise or translate it, you’ll either do that yourself or not.
https://t.me/s/TXDPR

Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 20 2024 16:20 utc | 280

Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 20 2024 15:53 utc | 280
Note: Anyone who can no longer put forward arguments and/or insults others is an idiot or a moron or a dumbass.
Dear “anon2020”:
– With your level of intelligence, you won’t silence anyone here ..

Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Sep 20 2024 18:28 utc | 281

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 20 2024 13:05 utc | 262
Thanks for for your explanations overall.
1st: .. If the device is in a ”bunker buster” casing and detonates some meters underground, then the initial flash of light will be absorbed by the surrounding material ..
2nd: .. Seems to be a lot of mysticism and misinformation surrounding nukes.
to 1st:
This confirms my assumption @167 of a vertically focused plasma stream from below ground or being focused through a hole in the roof.
Also, the hot center of the plasma stream remains on its position and does not ‘fall down’ like the rest of the material is falling out of the cloud due to gravity.
to 2nd:
Regarding the myths about this issue, I have to correct myself here on one point:
@167 : “2- Video 2 Water clouds above lakes ‘activated’ sec 5, ..”
The shallow optical enlargement of the water clouds, which lasts for a few seconds, is caused by the pressure wave that reaches the camera at second 7 (shot sound).
Checking for ‘nearby vaporized materials’, number of deaths, physical appearance of corpses, radioactive measurements and Infrared thermal images from above would give some better explanations if the aftermath would ever be published.
– and please keep all proofs top-secret ..!

Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Sep 20 2024 18:35 utc | 282

@271 – anonymous | Sep 20 2024 13:48 utc | 271
So please interpret this ‘vertical stream’, which has never been shown so clearly before, pls. in a physical way. What could this obviously be physically, especially because the center remains stable for seconds, independent of gravity?
Have you ever seen a bolt of lightning (also plasma like a ball lightning) falling down in a thunderstorm due to gravity? No.

Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Sep 20 2024 18:40 utc | 283

It is absolutely characteristic that those who rubbished the credibly sourced news that Russell had fallen victim to rogue elements within Russia’s own armed forces still greet reality with the same unremedied handicaps.
I won’t summarise or translate it, you’ll either do that yourself or not.
“>https://t.me/s/TXDPR

Sorry,.are you insinuating MoA somehow ‘rubbished’ news that Tex was murdered by Russian servicemen? If so, get the fuck outta here with that bullshit. I’ll wait for your quotes showing ‘MoA’ did that..of course, I’m not putting it past the imbecile NAFO cope Brigade, but MoA did no such thing.
It says much about the strength of your arguments when you have to bolster them with such transparent sophistry.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Sep 20 2024 19:10 utc | 284

Julian 277 – exactly, Indians are selling ammo and tanks to all willing buyers, but most of the good is being sold to the RF.
Same with the Serbs, ammo being sold to all with cash or gold, but RF has first dibs………….

Posted by: Tobias Cole | Sep 20 2024 19:38 utc | 285

Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Sep 20 2024 18:40 utc | 284
What on earth are you on about?

Posted by: anonymous | Sep 20 2024 20:18 utc | 286

Posted by: anonymous | Sep 20 2024 20:18 utc | 287
Pls go home to your virtual earth, go home and turn off the Internet and smoothly begin falling asleep – thanks very much.

Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Sep 20 2024 20:24 utc | 287

Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Sep 20 2024 20:24 utc | 288
No thank you, I’m quite interested in your imaginary world. I might write a short paper about it.

Posted by: anonymous | Sep 20 2024 21:08 utc | 288

@248 “What can the US sell that the Arabs would need dollars for ? “Vaccines” ? F35 ? Freezable US Treasuries ?”
Some bargain pagers or walkie talkies perhaps?
The comment upthread about expelling numerous scientists from CERN is interesting. That will come at a cost as those will be actual scientists, not narrative pushers.

Posted by: Yarpos | Sep 21 2024 0:19 utc | 289

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Sep 20 2024 19:10 utc | 285
Not MoA generally, “those” was an attempt to give perennial blowhard glowie-magnet Peter AU1, whose comments on the matter do exist on this site, a bit of room to manoeuvre, in the interests of not making too big a deal out of it.
Although “those”, as used conditionally, certainly couldn’t have meant all of MoA, could it, you mendacious piece of shit.

Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 21 2024 7:05 utc | 290

snake | Sep 20 2024 14:46 utc | 278
Your take on it that Russia is waiting on its partners has a lot going for it.
The was some order from the Biden admin a month or two back that the nuke subs had to prepare for a three way war. Russia, China and North Korea.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2024 7:38 utc | 291

Russia is clearly not equipped to deal with Ukraine once the western intelligence train is on full steam. It’s pretty pathetic, they seem to just assume after years of this that the war is localized to Ukraine. Not even the immediate borders on Ukraine. It’s this embarrassing level of incompetence or complete lack of proper air defense that makes me swallow previous assumptions about Russia. There is a rot of incompetence within the entire structure that would eat the country alive if they were ever facing anything more than a demoralized, fairly unmotivated, and handicapped enemy. This is nothing but completely embarrassing.

Posted by: Silveradoz | Sep 21 2024 8:19 utc | 292

@spare_truth_01 | Fri, 20 Sep 2024 00:58:00 GMT | 198

You misunderstood me.
I don’t rule out the possibility of an external US/UK mini-nuke. But you could think again about the ‘vertical plasma beam’.

Sure guy, a “vertical plasma beam.” Because that’s exactly how nuclear weapons explode. If it was a nuke, even in remote Toropets, with the lowest yield of one kiloton, it would have killed about 300 people right away. You should think again about how nuclear weapons work.

Posted by: James M. | Sep 21 2024 9:16 utc | 293

@snake | Fri, 20 Sep 2024 14:46:00 GMT | 278

Posted by: Áobh Ó’Sheachnasaigh | Sep 19 2024 18:44 utc | 86
Am I mistaken in thinking that Russia cannot fully rely on allies such as China and Iran to be fully involved in military support, not in the same sense as NATO members according to Article 5.
<= Not mistaken, I think there is an inverted relationship. Russia success = 1/Russia's partners willingness to join the war. The weaker Russia becomes the more likely its partners will join to help. ... because its partners do not want anyone to engage humanity in nuclear warfare. Every win the West accomplishes against Russia increases the probability that Russian partners will join Russia in the proxy war in Ukraine, I believe each win by the Neocon west acts like blackmailing in that it invites Russia's partners (China, Iran,etc.) to join with Russia.

Russia has the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) with an automatic trigger like NATO. But its members – Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Armenia are not a.) reliable and b.) militarily competent enough to stand against NATO.
Russia doesn’t have a treaty alliance with China. China’s only treaty alliance is with North Korea. Instead, China uses “strategic partnerships” partly to avoid alliance dilemmas (entrapment/abandonment) and partly because that’s just what they do. Same with Iran.
The issue is will these countries defend Russia if it is overtly attacked by US/NATO? I’m sure China/Iran will send weapons, since they’re doing that already. Will they send troops? I don’t know. That’s a big bridge to cross. They won’t send troops without that escalation.
Even with it, its debatable. China is very reluctant post-Mao to send troops abroad. And Iran uses proxies, they have more immediate concerns – regional rivalries with Israel and the Sunnis, and domestic instability.

Posted by: James M. | Sep 21 2024 9:28 utc | 294

@Silveradoz | Sat, 21 Sep 2024 08:19:00 GMT | 293

It’s this embarrassing level of incompetence or complete lack of proper air defense that makes me swallow previous assumptions about Russia

Oh no concern troll alert. I’m sure Putin and the Russian High Command are broken up over your embarrassment and your “revised” assumptions. I suggest a strongly worded letter to President Putin. I’m sure he’ll take all your concerns into consideration.

Posted by: James M. | Sep 21 2024 9:30 utc | 295

Russia can’t stop Ukraine to use west weapon. What a waste of a war it has been for Russia, destroying its army, demography and economy for nothing.

Posted by: Pulpe Fiction | Sep 21 2024 11:45 utc | 296

The Biden/admin “reversal” and suggested military intervention is all for show.
The show’s purpose is to deflect the Russian warnings and to publicly distance the US from direct attacks on Russia.
The US is busy with elections and the Middle East and clearly wants the EU to carry the can both financially and logistically for the ongoing Ukraine crusade. But the US, along with the UK is absolutely resolute in pursuing Russia by every means, I won’t iterate the endless reasons they for their own economic, financial and hegemonic survival, they cannot possibly allow a BRICS to happen.
How can they let China and Russia stay united as no-limits allies and go fight China?
Just as the anthrax in Colin Powell’s little vial was a stage prop for the UN to gawp at so was Starmer’s briefcase of maps of targets.
The whole point of Putin’s speech was that long range missile targets need US ISR. Long range strikes depend on up to date intelligence and targets move or emerge as sudden opportunities, targets are not decided by “Biden” playing with a bunch of maps on a table at a televised public meeting!
It was a show, the stage magician waved his empty hands to the audience so the world could see there was nothing up his sleeves.
And as for Biden’s anger, if saner heads at the Pentagon had really pulled the rug they would absolutely have avoided generating a public display of anger and embarrassment. Not to do so would be to risk being immediately put down for the total lack of protocol in being reported as slapping down their Commander in Chief the President in public, and their message would be drowned in acrimony.

Posted by: Saul Goode | Sep 22 2024 3:16 utc | 297

Putting it another way, re my post at 298…
If the military hadn’t “intervened” and Biden and Starmer had gone ahead with the purpose of the meeting which was to jointly approve the UK’s hotly desired long range strikes of jointly chosen targets deep in Russia – in public for the world to see – then the US and UK were n the record as openly declaring war on Russia precisely as Putin expressly described.
At the same time we are expected to believe the long standing narrative that the US has all along not wanted open war with Russia…

Posted by: Saul Goode | Sep 22 2024 3:36 utc | 298