Ukraine Open Thread 2024-209

September 1, 2024

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

It seems that the Ukrainian army is now betting on holding Pokrovsk, a rail and road hub which happens to also hold the only coal mine usable for coke production. Without the Ukrainian coke the already damaged Ukrainian metallurgic industry will be in a steep decline.

The 72nd brigade was ordered from Ugledar in the south, where it had been in defensive positions over the last two years, towards the Pokrovsk salient. Following that move the Russian army launched an all out attack on Ugledar.

The Ukrainian units involved in the Kursk invasion are reportedly also getting called back to move towards Pokrovsk. But they have by now received a serious beating and have lost a lot of their armored vehicles and fighting capabilities.

Troops on the move are targets. Lets see how many are left when they arrive.

…

Posted by b on September 1, 2024 at 13:03 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Posted by: Nokaz | Sep 2 2024 13:54 utc | 299
A good link worth reading carefully.

Posted by: too scents | Sep 2 2024 14:01 utc | 301

spindz | Sep 2 2024 7:57 utc | 233
a nice movie script. now please show me your evidence any of that has an ounce of truth to it?
Posted by: Fred | Sep 2 2024 8:49 utc | 235

Hmm,confirmation might exist in Russian and US intelligence records, but good luck getting to that any time soon.
Regarding the allege Ukrainian goal of trying to destroy the KNPP, there’s simply nothing else the Ukronazis could do there, since they couldn’t field a force to hold the KNPP hostage (as some allege) for any length of time.
But a test of a good theory is its predictive power. In this case a similar elite Nazi attack on ZNPP is what’s predicted. If it occurs, it should wind up being even more deadly to Nazi ranks, since this time, Russia will have more confidence in the CIA tip off, and lay its trap more effectively. The CIA tip is guaranteed because Black Rock doesn’t actually want a radioactive Ukraine.
Disproofs of this theory, such as the discovery of a logical impossibility, are welcome.

Posted by: spindz | Sep 2 2024 14:02 utc | 302

Well, the Russians will certainly be in kiev (not sure they really want to be in kiev, mind you) before the kiev regime reaches Crimea lol
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 2 2024 13:47 utc | 298
It’s a snail race ! Place your bets , but write it on your testament just so someone can collect your gains if you win !

Posted by: Savonarole | Sep 2 2024 14:02 utc | 303

https://t.me/milinfolive/129741

Footage of enemy using drone with incendiary sprayer to destroy vegetation in planting.

Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 2 2024 14:12 utc | 304

KMRIA, 290:
Ahh…the Odessa dreamers (“Black Sea coast”) who seem unable to look at a map and unaware of the city of Kherson…and where it is, and how long the RFA has not moved on it, and that the RFA actually got shoved out of it…and that yes, there still is a huge estuary blocking it.

Posted by: Anonymous | Sep 2 2024 14:17 utc | 305

PeterAU1@ 10.33
Antibiotic resistance in Ukrainian hospitals / patients.
In Ukraine, antibiotics (mostly Indian, not Western), can be bought over the pharmacy counter, without a prescription.
Widespread antibiotic resistance is the result.
God knows how much and which antibiotics go into animal feed.

Posted by: CitizenSmith | Sep 2 2024 14:31 utc | 306

Posted by: Savonarole | Sep 2 2024 14:02 utc | 302
There’s a different race currently underway. Which collapses first, Ukraine’s military or Ukraine’s economy?
I’m backing the latter to make a storming run into the final furlong, taking the honours…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 2 2024 14:31 utc | 307

It’s for that reason that I don’t believe the Russians will stop at the Dnieper. They are forced, in whatever manner they can, to neutralise the entirety of remnant Ukraine. Else they will be exposed indefinitely to the West using the Ukrainians to mount such “look no hands” attacks as these.
Posted by: English Outsider | Sep 2 2024 13:29 utc | 293
Entirely agree. Russia will have to ensure that the entirety of the land now known as Ukraine will not be a threat in the future. Even suggestions of neutrality for a remnant Ukraine will be problematic in light of the experience of Finland being absorbed into NATO in defiance of treaty obligations to Russia, and without that NATO accession being put to and agreed by the Finnish people.
Even then, there is the question of what happens then? My reading of the Russian proposals of December 2021 leads me to believe that Ukraine is only the first step to be taken in achieving security for Russia.
The Russians have talked many times about agreements that increased security for one country not being acceptably achieved at the expense of the security of other countries. As with the Minsk agreements, the Europeans have effectively walked away from this concept, and commitment.
Given this background, I foresee Russia essentially shrugging its shoulders after resolution of Ukraine, and adopting an attitude of “OK, if that’s the way you want it”, and putting in place its own security arrangements, and to hell with what others think.
Of course, this is longer term, and the main anti Russian European States (Germany, France and the UK) will be cultural and economic wrecks by then.

Posted by: Marduk | Sep 2 2024 14:34 utc | 308

“the independent English famer?”
Posted by: canuck | Sep 2 2024 12:57 utc | 282
—
This Malapropism couldn’t be more on the nose.
Posted by: too scents | Sep 2 2024 13:46 utc | 297
You know fuck all about farming (I grew up on a farm-still have land) which doesn’t restrain you, whatsoever, you from putting your two illiterate cents in.
And, of course, you didn’t watch the clip as you’d rather bask in your ignorance.
Idiot!

Posted by: canuck | Sep 2 2024 14:37 utc | 309

Posted by: KMRIA | Sep 2 2024 12:15 utc | 270
Nonsense.
RF already gained a few millions of people that fled from Ukraine to Russia and they will add some more with the annexed o last.
Granted they are not all men but RF will possibly end with more population than before the sSMO.

Posted by: Mario | Sep 2 2024 14:45 utc | 310

I don’t know what Ukraine is thinking but I would think Ukraine would be pushing reserves there to slow the advance. They still do have some.
And they still have a pool to draft from. The lower end of the draft age in Ukraine is 25 years old. They can still lower it.
A point estimate answer to your first question about original Donbas fortifications is 25%, +/- 5%.
The 30,000 foot view is that Russia can still impose its will on Ukraine; the cost is just many orders of magnitude higher than Putin expected. Ukraine ‘wins’ by making that cost so high that Russia eventually decides it isn’t worth it to get all the marbles. This SMO (slow moving operation) means that Ukraine still has a chance to do that. See my comment at @249.
Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 2 2024 11:11 utc | 260
Let’s start with “still has reserves”, it does, BUT, if things go they way they’re going until the end of the month/quarter, I would be tempted to say that most, if not all, of the remaining half a million (roughly) AFU army, will be mostly wounded men, in a varied state of “mend”. And to boost, most of them are east of the dnieper, boom go the bridges and how many can Z recover?
Now going to “a pool to draft from”, it’s a very shallow and dangerous marsh, not really a pool. If mommy ukie did not take young future warrior hero out in 2022 (and I would say many did) you would have maybe 800.000 young boys available from which 500.000 could be usable/drafted. But many did take them out and I would say it’s closer to 350.000. You could go full hitler youth and get 500.000 but from all usable 15yo boys and older, but that’s about it. Whatever way you dice it, once that last effort recruitment is done you are left with an annual levée of 50k maybe 60k that doesn’t hold a month.
https://www.populationpyramid.net/ukraine/2023/
As for he cost RF is ready to bear, it has always been a very steady 19.000 if we must , 18.000 if we don’t KIA per semester. (and roughly as many permanently WIA). Which is roughly 10% (20 including otherwise disabled) of the soldiers they are training, equipping and giving experience in the same period… Do the math and see what that gives.
So, getting whatever forces across the dnieper and drafting all 18yo+ are BOTH needed to dream of holding the dniepeer. And neither allows sustaining operations throughout 2025Q1.
Of course drafting the kids will probably get Z and his bunch hanged and quartered, but might postpone things to after the US elections and that’s what’s important right now… 2024Q4 will be a bitch for ukraine cheerleaders.
Now for the 25% +-5% fortifications in dombass (and even elsewhere in the east bank), how useful are they when:
1. You don’t have the men to man them
2. The logistics to supply and support them have been cut
3. They can be left behind to rot and any counter attack can be FABed away
Concerning 3, RF wishes to thank Z and the AFU for supplying, in kursk, a test bed for curtailing incursions with limited ground resources and bombing.
my 2 cents

Posted by: Newbie | Sep 2 2024 14:49 utc | 311

of course, you didn’t watch the clip
Posted by: canuck | Sep 2 2024 14:37 utc | 308
—
Nope. I’ve got no time for that pompous ass.
Like you I also grew up on a farm. I married into a farm family. Lamb, veal and goats. And the feed is harvested, not bought.
Farming isn’t rentable without subsidies ==> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tendency_of_the_rate_of_profit_to_fall

Posted by: too scents | Sep 2 2024 14:55 utc | 312

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHEcvMSVvxs
A secret NATO meeting – used by smiling Germans to sell more weapons. And there you have it. I’m sure payments to Ukraine will sputter along. I read an account that the Conscript Enslavers pulled the driver out of a bus, leaving passengers behind as well as his unknowing family.
Seize men, force them to the front, shoot them in the back if they refuse. Rinse, repeat through what? another 2 – 3 million? For another several years? And ‘to the last UKrainian’ is just hyperbole?
If the smart, capable men are dead or refugees in the EU, who’s left to rebel? Sort of like a Darwinist sorting. This doesn’t end until Zelensky and crew are gone – and exile may not be enough. He has no agency or standing to negotiate so it continues until he’s gone. If that takes several years of 600K lost per year, then that’s how it is. And weapons will continue to be sold ($$)
I don’t know how Putin does it but I don’t think surrounding Kyiv will do it, They’ll just move. The Portal To Suicide Government has to be removed.
In Israel’s case, I don’t see any real hope. Netanyahu’s disappearance would likely trigger a civil war (if they don’t have one already while he’s alive). It looks like the Fall of the 2nd Temple all over again, complete with crazy Jewish fanatics.

Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 2 2024 14:57 utc | 313

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 2 2024 14:58 utc | 314

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 2 2024 15:04 utc | 315

Three Himars launchers were discovered in two firing positions SE of Sumy and taken out. No doubt more US servicemen were destroyed as icing on the cake.
https://southfront.press/russians-destroy-three-us-himars-missile-artillery-systems-in-ukraine-in-one-go/
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 2 2024 14:58 utc | 313
Yes, the move of critically sparse resources to support the kursk caper at range from RF assets has been a predictable catastrophe for the AFU.
Unless thay are buying time for a full retreat to the dnieper It’s plain madness.

Posted by: Newbie | Sep 2 2024 15:08 utc | 316

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 2 2024 14:31 utc | 306
There is also a third possibility ; Locals seems to love the “coup in Kyiv” TVdrama , why not a third episode to this series ?
Hellensky seems to loves his “reversal ofensyiv” he might get a “reversal electyion”.

Posted by: Savonarole | Sep 2 2024 15:14 utc | 317

Eightman@1457
Reports coming in this morning from several sources estimate that half a million Israelis hit the streets yesterday, demanding that the Nuts ‘ Yahoos regime focus on returning the remaining hostages in Gaza. The Hamas and other resistance groups are seeking a pullout of Izzy troops along with a ceasefire in order to strike a deal. Of course, they also demand the release of thousands of violently imprisoned Palestinian victims of Izzy perfidy.
So it appears that the governance of Occupied Palestine is facing the fun prospect of near civil war conditions between the fanatics and those who would opt for a peaceful solution.

Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 2 2024 15:18 utc | 318

https://t.me/s/tulaovod

A little more self-promotion, forgive me😚
We show off a medal from the Ministry of Defense! And we thank the defense department for cooperation🫡

https://t.me/Lunay14/19701

Equipment for mobile groups to protect strategic facilities from UAV threats has already been developed and tested.
A machine gun on a turret, a proven thermal imager, a powerful searchlight, a reliable pickup truck and a team of professionals.
The issue is with the legal status, with the staffing and training of these very groups.
@labppsh

https://t.me/serhii_flash/3810

*** Ukrainian Channel ***
What to watch out for in Shahedah.
Over the past month, nearly 800 Shahed attacks have been recorded. The increase is greater in the previous month. These figures do not speak about the scale of production, they are simply the result of a decrease in reserves. We will improve the global picture in the coming month.
Also, the Shahedi changed their tactics and fly over Ukraine at an altitude of over 2 kilometers and often land at 4-5. This is designed to bypass the influx of mobile firefighting groups that cannot engage targets at such altitudes. Before hitting the target, Shahed begins to decline sharply, and here the fire groups have the possibility of being beaten. It’s too early to make a move here, as soon as the enemy changes the tactics of stagnating the Shaheds. Today they fly at 3 kilometers, tomorrow they will fly at 300 meters again. In fact, our approach to combating attack UAVs is complex. It’s just changing the number of battles between PPO, aviation, REB, MOG.
What is happening on our side on the topic of attack UAVs?
As I have already said, we have achieved parity in the production of attack UAVs and 800 Mars per month are “not a number” for us.
With this, we have mastered the tactics and strategy of defending against attack UAVs, and our enemy is not . The enemy is immediately trying to create mobile angry groups in himself, and then they will have a problem – their country is much larger and for the same purposes. Cover everything up neatly.
So we can say that the time has come for payback on the topic of attack UAVs.

Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 2 2024 15:20 utc | 319

Posted by: Newbie | Sep 2 2024 14:49 utc | 310
To add to your response to @ed4, what happens to the Ukrainian economy once all the able-bodied and productive members of the workforce are drafted?
In fact it doesn’t have to be all of them, just a critical mass, to the point when there’s not enough people left to harvest crops, repair electrical systems or fix the plumbing.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 2 2024 15:04 utc | 314
There are significant crops in kiev’s ukraine, I’d guess women took over , total exports went from 68b in 2021 to 36b in 2023, but while ferrous and no-ferrous metals dropped 80%, agriculture products dropped only 20%. With machines they can probably sustain activity (unless they are killed by new taxes on fuel)
As for those critical systems I’d say the number of men involved is not as big as that and kiev might be not stupid enough to draft them.
I’ll go for military collapse due to demographics.

Posted by: Newbie | Sep 2 2024 15:24 utc | 320

New kind of RUAF drone dropping thermite on tree line positions.
https://x.com/narrative_hole/status/1830608286829387842

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 2 2024 15:26 utc | 321

According to this battalion commander, Ukraine has more than enough men left to fight so there’s no need to mobilize teenagers or women :
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/121639
Commander Veres:
– What, are we out of men? Maybe we should mobilize 12 and 15-year-olds?We are not some African country where they run around with machine guns. Mandatory mobilization of women is barbarity. If they want to, let them go; if they don’t, they don’t. We still have a country, there are still men left, why should women go?
This war isn’t winding down any time soon.

Posted by: bored | Sep 1 2024 18:17 utc | 102
In regards to the above, there’s an interesting propaganda puff article from the BBC reporting from a “secret training location in the Chernihiv region” (SOE/SAS fantasies still haunt the British psyche). You can ignore the usual nonsense quotes from the recruits:
“If we have an order to move forward, we can get to Moscow – and we’ll show what Ukraine means and what are our guys are like – real Cossacks.”
And instead focus on the real meat of the story, namely:
“In the hail of machine gun fire and instructors’ commands, the most striking aspect of the scene is the age of the new recruits. Most seem to be in their 40s and 50s”
So regards bored’s post, it seems to neglect this simple fact: the majority of Ukrainian males of the recruitment demographic, aged 25-40 years old, appear to either already dead, seriously injured or abroad.
While I’m not suggesting men in their 40s/50s can’t fight, most will not be at their fitness peak & perhaps more importantly, having families & careers doesn’t in the main, make for heroic sacrifices.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0qe9ql8v95o

Posted by: FakeBelieve | Sep 2 2024 15:40 utc | 322

A pathetic Politico opinion piece written by “Martin Vladimirov is director of the Energy and Climate Program at the Center for the Study of Democracy.” That the CSD, based in Bulgaria, is funded by Western government and NGOs is of course never mentioned. Martin himself seems to be a Russia-hating US citizen who is ethnically Bulgarian.
So he whines about how Turkey has an agreement to export gas to the EU, and can mix Russian gas into the “Turkish mix”. Another way around the anti-Russia sanctions. Well boo hoo, the rest of the world doesn’t give a shit about what the US and the idiot EU elites want, and are happy to do business with Russia. As are in fact the Europeans as long as they can hide the fact behind the “India/China mix” (oil) and the “Turkey mix” (natural gas), oh and still through pipelines and LNG from Russia.
And what whining!

The EU cannot look away as Gazprom tries to launder Russian gas exports. And fully decoupling from Russian energy now would show Europe still stands with Ukraine.

This expansion will make use of the existing European extension of TurkStream, as well as a 2023 agreement between Bulgarian public gas supplier Bulgargaz, Bulgarian system operator Bulgartransgaz and BOTAŞ, which allows the Turkish company to export around 3.6 bcm per year to the EU. And maximizing the TurkStream pipeline network in this way will add another 4 bcm of camouflaged Russian gas exports to Europe.
Just like Russian oil companies sell relabeled oil products to Europe from Turkey, India, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, Europe cannot look away as Gazprom tries to launder Russian gas exports. And along this path, the EU’s decision to ban the trans-shipments of Russian LNG destined for Asia via European ports is a small but crucial step in phasing out Russian gas. But there’s more that could be done.
Despite efforts by major European natural gas consumers to reduce dependence, Russian gas still accounts for 15 percent of the EU’s total gas imports, even overtaking U.S. LNG supply to Europe this year. In simple terms, Europe currently spends twice as much on Russian energy as it gives Ukraine in aid.

Then the utterly delusional nut job part, which proves that the Politico people are suffering from schizophrenia and/or is a 100% establishment propagandist shill.

As Ukraine continues its military incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, the Kremlin will inevitably find it harder to achieve a breakthrough in the Donbas. And fully decoupling from Russian energy at this time would show Europe still stands with Ukraine.

Every day this guys gets up and lies for the Empire, what a horrible little PoS. Such institutions are full of these PoS.
https://www.politico.eu/article/turkstream-putin-erdogan-gas-pipeline-gazprom-eu-sanctions/

Posted by: Roger | Sep 2 2024 15:42 utc | 323

reply to 314
I appreciate your post as considering the extremes of Ukraine and the hope for an end game. It’s so much more than just two sides fighting and they decide to stop at some point. As it is, how do they exist from day to day? I wonder about the police, prison guards, power station techs (whatever’s left of that), doctors, all the immediate stuff.

Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 2 2024 15:43 utc | 324

@Posted by: Simon | Sep 2 2024 12:48 utc | 280
A Gramscian actually, but who cares about distinctions when throwing around meaningless slurs!

Posted by: Roger | Sep 2 2024 15:44 utc | 325

horseguards | Sep 2 2024 1:26 utc | 212

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 1 2024 19:34 utc | 123
“given the vicious colonial history inflicted by British elites on the Irish people.”

Probably a Protestant.

Not wrong though, is he, you mono-frottaging ponce.

Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Sep 2 2024 15:46 utc | 326

There was a complaint earlier from someone that China was being “nasty” to Russia because it was bargaining with respect to imports of natural gas. I did note both the increases in domestic gas production and Central Asian imports. As per the story below, Turkmenistan now exports more gas to China than Russia, and is also increasing exports to Iran. There is a lot of domestic and overland gas supply competing for China’s market.

Turkmenistan now ranks ahead of Russia in terms of revenue from gas supplies to China. It is being reported that the country became the largest gas supplier to China in the first half of 2024, exporting gas worth $5.67 billion. Russia is now in second place with a trade of $4.69 billion.
At the same time, the chairman of the Halk Maslahaty (People’s Council) of Turkmenistan, the former president Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, said during his recent visit to Iran that Turkmenistan plans to increase the volume of gas supplies to Iran to 40 billion cubic meters per year.
Two gas compressor stations and a 125-kilometer-long gas pipeline are being planned in Turkmenistan. This will allow Iran to supply additional volumes to the “Çaloýuk” gas measuring station.
In addition, Turkmen gas will soon be exported to Iraq and Turkey under the SWAP scheme.

Perhaps some Turkmenistan gas will be mixed with Russian gas to be supplied to the EU? All being transported within EurAsia, out of the reach of the US.
https://timesca.com/turkmenistan-surpasses-russia-in-gas-exports-to-china/

Posted by: Roger | Sep 2 2024 15:51 utc | 327

Whether or not Russia captures Pokrovsk in the short term, Pokrovsk can no longer function as a hub, as it falls ever deeper into encirclement and with roads cut.
The actual fall of Pokrovsk would give Russia use of this hub, but UKR has already lost the use of it.

Posted by: Paul Damascene | Sep 2 2024 16:00 utc | 328

Sarlat La Canède@325….”frottaging ponce”…..cool, had to look that one up……:)
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 2 2024 16:18 utc | 329

Posted by: Savonarole | Sep 2 2024 15:14 utc | 316
############
Coups and assassinations are how the degenerate West likes to do things. The Russians (Iranians, and Chinese) recognize such measures as the band-aids that they are. I am convinced that even the West knows that coups and assassinations are more for domestic consumption than any meaningful change. A byproduct of the relative infancy of the Western “civilizations” (a term I use advisedly).
Zelensky is not running this war any more than the pimply teenager working the Mcdonalds’ drive-thru is managing the franchise branch.
Just as Biden was not actually running the US government in any substantial way. Justin Trudeau is not really “calling the shots” in Canada.
People focus their rage and attention on these glorified spokespeople ignoring and oblivious to the power structures that influence billions of lives.
To a degree, people also do this with Putin and Russia, although non-Western democracies have more of an autocratic bent, and Putin does wield substantial power and responsibility. As it would be in China, eliminating the leader means that someone younger from a large cadre of capable replacements will continue the agenda in the absence of the previous executive.
Who replaces Zelensky and will the size and frequency of the cocaine deliveries remain constant? And will it alter the realities that Ukraine faces on the battlefield or economically? Is it really that Ukraine is missing a competent military leader or an amazing business mind who can “balance the books”? I don’t think so. I believe Zelensky was elevated to that role precisely because he is unaccomplished (here comes KAMALA!). An empty vessel is the ideal figurehead, the people can project whatever they are told to project upon that stooge.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 2 2024 16:20 utc | 330

Posted by: canuck | Sep 2 2024 11:53 utc | 266
My guess is that Ed4 is probably saying the cost in Russian soldiers might be a major factor in determining when to stop. It would be a Pyrrhic victory to lose too many men in the prime of their lives. It’s already too late for Ukraine on that score.
Posted by: KMRIA | Sep 2 2024 12:15 utc | 270
Yes, well he’s does have a point.
To me there will be more Russians killed in the long term if they don’t take Odessa during this SMO..
I believe the Russians should have held on to that territory-Kherson- and reinforced rather than retreat from Kherson-they would have taken more losses but the SM0 would have ended sooner with less losses altogether.
They should also take Kharkiv but they might be a bridge too far .

Posted by: canuck | Sep 2 2024 16:28 utc | 331

@ Marduk, §307:
Agreed. It looks like the Russians will have to secure the whole of the Ukraine even though they don´t want it, especially Galicia which nobody wants. “The Ukraine” will be removed as a name: RIP 1917-2025.
All of the erstwhile Ukraine will be taken by Russia. The six oblasts around Kiev (Zhitomir, Xmelnitsky, Vinnitsa, Cherkassy, Yelizavetgrad and Kiev itself) may be offered a vote on becoming “Chornarus” with a constitution and status similar to Belarus.
Galicia and Bessarabia may be used as bargaining chips with Poland and Rumania respectively to ensure a lasting peace.
Transcarpathia may opt for exclave status like Kaliningrad.

Posted by: John Marks | Sep 2 2024 16:34 utc | 332

AFAIK, it’s something of a truism that the draft pool of those age 25 and under basically consists of young Ukrainians who chose not to enlist, and who have been watching very attentively on the sidelines as the AFU has gone from being seen as winning in the beginning, to now inarguably losing scads of of its equipment and suffering the brutal losses of hundreds of thousands of its soldiers.
Imo, if Zelensky sets to go after that cohort then he’d better drastically beef up his order guards, because that generation of war observers is eminently suited to attempting to escape his clutches and find jobs and a new life in other countries. Additionally, those who expect to eventually get repaid by the government of Ukraine, or to exploit the wealth of that country, won’t be happy to see “their” best demographic of workers being transformed into cannon fodder. Ukraine’s economy having little chance of viability would be a disaster for those waiting to exploit it.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Sep 2 2024 16:45 utc | 333

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 2 2024 15:26 utc | 321
Others claim it’s a Ukrainian drone (see @304), time will tell.

Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 2 2024 17:15 utc | 334

Posted by: Roger | Sep 2 2024 12:24 utc | 274 “Russia and China are building a whole parallel infrastructure for grain trading and transportation”
There is certainly more trade between Russia and China, and from all appearances with the terms of trade titled towards China.
But there are also additional constraints in that relationship as mentioned here and in a number of other articles:
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russia-payment-hurdles-with-china-partners-intensified-august-sources-say-2024-08-30/
And, of course, if Russia is going to be exploiting the wealth of Ukraine land at the scale you depict they might want to end this war.

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 2 2024 17:27 utc | 335

Russian post.
https://t.me/xronikabpla/7685

Almost a year ago, in a conversation with Maga t.me/shalnyak2, I briefly put forward a proposal to create a charge that would allow burning enemy positions, landings, and vehicles. There was no specific proposal then.
At this stage of the air defense system, the use of incendiary mixtures with FPV is far from new:
– napalm;
– thermite;
– magnesium;
In fact, FPV with an incendiary mixture is a kind of analogue of 9M22S, 9M28S, 9M55S, 9M27S (incendiary shells from Grad, Smerch, and Uragan are listed).
Of course, there are differences:
– if the shells hit enemy targets directly both by creating mass centers of fire and by hitting the target itself, then the main and only type of damage for FPVs is either creating centers of fire or by hitting the target itself;
– the projectile hits an area object, i.e. the probability that the entire package will hit one landing is minimal, and the FPV (if it reaches), will fly pointwise over the entire landing;
The tactics of burning out the landing using drones is a pretty good idea, when using 10 such drones, the landing can simply be burned out.
The video shows the use of an FPV drone from the enemy side.

Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 2 2024 17:31 utc | 336

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 2 2024 15:26 utc | 321 “New kind of RUAF drone dropping thermite ”
I believe it is Ukrainian and there are some claims it uses US AN-M14 grenades to work.

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 2 2024 17:38 utc | 337

Posted by: John Marks | Sep 2 2024 16:34 utc | 332 “It looks like the Russians will have to secure the whole of the Ukraine”
And when do you foresee this happening by?

Posted by: ed | Sep 2 2024 17:40 utc | 338

Posted by: canuck | Sep 2 2024 12:03 utc | 269 “ROW will be more interested in Russian arms as they are cheaper, more durable and at least as effective or more than expensive Western wunderwuff-and they will have good advertising winning the SMO”
Well, first, the Russians have to convince those arms buyers they have won the SMO. In the meantime world wide Russian arms sales have plummeted. For example:
https://ipdefenseforum.com/2024/04/russias-arms-sales-plummet-as-india-others-seek-new-suppliers/
And as I have said, the only wunderwaffe is the West’s continued ability to ship weapons into Ukraine. Almost 3 years ago it was NLAWS, now it is F-16’s.

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 2 2024 18:01 utc | 339

Posted by: Roger | Sep 2 2024 15:42 utc | 323 “So he whines about how Turkey has an agreement to export gas to the EU, and can mix Russian gas into the “Turkish mix”. Another way around the anti-Russia sanctions. Well boo hoo, the rest of the world doesn’t give a shit about what the US and the idiot EU elites want, and are happy to do business with Russia. ”
This argument is a little confusing. If the concern is that Turkey mixes some Russian gas in with non sanctioned gas for sale to the EU, what does it matter what the rest of the world thinks?

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 2 2024 18:10 utc | 340

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 2 2024 11:29 utc | 264
If Zelensky is not legally the president, then any law confirmed by his signature must be invalid, surely?
Or does an implied consensus by the actions of the Rada give legitimacy to his position?

Posted by: horseguards | Sep 2 2024 20:34 utc | 341

too scents | Sep 2 2024 9:52 utc | 245
*** The problem with automobiles it the selfishness they engender. That’s great for individuals but bad for society.***
The problem with public (on land) transport is that it often induce a desire to massacre the public. Travel in an automobile makes one more inclined to be nice to people. Except in cities now made even worse by anti-car bureaucrats in power.
And the problem with most anti-car people is that while they put plenty of effort into criticising the concept of cars, they are, however, hypocritically quick to enlist the assistance of car owners when they want to go somewhere that’s not on convenient public transport routes (which is actually quite often).

Posted by: Cynic | Sep 2 2024 20:41 utc | 342

Nokaz | Sep 2 2024 13:54 utc | 300 …
Fair evaluation by the Chinese academic, except maybe about Afghanistan which the CIA and accomplices had *already* made a target (sponsoring jihadists and warlords). Incitement too close to USSR borders with Moslem populations.

Posted by: Cynic | Sep 2 2024 20:59 utc | 343

Posted by: horseguards | Sep 2 2024 20:34 utc | 341
I guess that argument could made, but what happens when the term of legitimacy for the parliament (as has already happened in Ukraine) has also expired?
In the manner of “Iran-backed Houthi rebels”, do we now have a “US-backed Kiev junta”?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 2 2024 21:14 utc | 344

Roger | Sep 2 2024 15:42 utc | 323 [re Politico propagandist]
*** Every day this guys gets up and lies for the Empire, what a horrible little PoS. Such institutions are full of these PoS.***
No doubt high paid enough to have no personal worries re hypothermia etc.
Just like the bought (and similarly 100% traitor) politicians.

Posted by: Cynic | Sep 2 2024 21:14 utc | 345

Posted by: Roger | Sep 2 2024 12:44 utc | 279
“a debt of gratitude.” A debt too great ever to be repaid.
If you’re interested, I have just finished a book I would highly recommend: The Chamberlain-Hitler Collusion by A. Finkel and C. Leibovitz (1997). Look for a second-hand copy.
Good post.

Posted by: horseguards | Sep 2 2024 21:27 utc | 346

Posted by: Simon | Sep 2 2024 12:48 utc | 281
“as true as the fact that you look like a stupid Bolshevik.” And you are an unreconstructed cunt.

Posted by: horseguards | Sep 2 2024 21:30 utc | 347

Posted by: too scents | Sep 2 2024 13:46 utc | 298
When The Financial Times was half-decent (a long time ago), a writer asked, why should farmers be immune to economic forces?

Posted by: horseguards | Sep 2 2024 21:52 utc | 348

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 2 2024 17:27 utc | 335
That’s overblown Ed. There are far fewer “constraints” on the China-Russia relationship than on say the US-UK relationship. There’s a workaround for the sanctions dilemma that both countries will exploit. But of course you never respond when you are called out, so I don’t expect one now.

Posted by: James M. | Sep 2 2024 22:02 utc | 349

Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Sep 2 2024 15:46 utc | 326
Is that it, you sad cunt?

Posted by: horseguards | Sep 2 2024 22:15 utc | 350

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 2 2024 17:27 utc | 335
########
That is a very popular and debunked NAFO narrative. You should ask your handler for the newest focus-grouped angles to promote.
Trying to drive a wedge between China and Russia is beyond stupid in 2024. Right up there with washing machine microchips and Putin dying of cancer/Alzheimers.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 3 2024 1:05 utc | 351

Re: Posted by: xblob | Sep 1 2024 20:59 utc | 145

A slow approach is probably even better for Russia since it guarantees a maximum attrition of Ukrainian forces. Also, expect some more targts in Ukraine be destroyed. The shot at the Kiev dam could be seen as a warning here.

Oh don’t worry, I guarantee it will be a slow approach – have tot been watching this thing for the last 2.5 years?!?

Posted by: Julian | Sep 3 2024 3:28 utc | 352

Re: Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 22:22 utc | 165

Melaleuca, what would the US do? You know what the US would do you fucking hypocrite.

You have reading comprehension problems don’t you Ed!
I recommend you get your eyes checked asap.

Posted by: Julian | Sep 3 2024 3:29 utc | 353

Re: Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 1 2024 23:42 utc | 192

I remain convinced this war will be decided on the battlefield, and that Russia will dictate hard terms to the west and the remnant of the hapless Ukrainians who chose to destroy their own people in service to the rapidly crumbling Anglo-American empire.
https://x.com/imetatronink/status/1829594670881726884

A couple of Australians arguing over a Russian President.
Spare me.
Have you asked Raygun to contribute her views?
Helmer’s right btw – and will be proven right in the next 12 months.

Posted by: Julian | Sep 3 2024 3:47 utc | 354

From Telegram…
And the current, almost daily strikes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on our peaceful cities, shelling with artillery and missiles, launching hundreds of drones are in fact not some kind of desperate gesture of the Ukrainians, but a well-thought-out strategy calculated in its consequences. Moreover, a strategy formed by the Americans back in January of last year! And we laid it out in detail at the same time: on
March 19, we wrote:
“… The response to such a strategy of the Russians was the February decision of our “swamp” “Swamp thing” Charlie Brown (head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff) to transfer military operations to Russian territory. The decision, in my opinion, is questionable. Brown is convinced that if it is impossible to kill more Russians at the front than Ukrainians, then the necessary difference must be “made up” at the expense of the border regions. “Every killed Russian is a contribution to the overall bill of the war. And the Russians should pay more than the Ukrainians!” – this is how this task was formulated at Brown’s February meeting in the “White House”. The problem now is in one thing – the ability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to hit targets on Russian territory, and the reserves for opening a new front are very limited. Those attacks on the Russian border that we saw last week were depressing, and in these attacks the Ukrainian Armed Forces again suffered losses that were many times greater than the Russians. In order to really increase the losses of the Russians, it is necessary to transfer to the Ukrainians additional (at least twenty) MLRS “Himars”, longer-range shells for them, including “Atacms”, and the recently tested GLSDB guided shells, whose “premiere” on the Russian-Ukrainian front will take place in the near future. Brown believes that the removed on their use in Russian territories will allow you to start massive blows on military, economic, industrial and administrative facilities that are now near the border, and to increase the loss of Russians to multiply: “… this is the same Negro that in January ordered to change the warfare strategy against Russia.

Posted by: MiniMO | Sep 3 2024 4:10 utc | 355

Re: Posted by: Roger | Sep 2 2024 12:24 utc | 274

Then think about all of the minerals and natural gas under Ukraine’s soil that can be traded within EurAsia and far away from Western sanctions and Western control. Then add in control of the Black Sea and direct borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Moldova, Transnistria – that’s another huge gain and would transform the political situation in the Balkans. Then add in the massive increase in Russia’s international esteem in having defeated the West in a major conflict, and the huge hit to the West’s perceived power.
The prize is huge, and NATO gave the opening to take it. It is more than worth the price.

I have to say – this is a strange take Roger.
Prior to 2014 Russia effectively controlled 100% of Ukraine and had centuries deep and enduring cultural and linguistic links to Ukraine.
100%.
Prior to 2014 The West – NATO/US/UK had NEVER IN HISTORY controlled Ukraine – NEVER IN HISTORY had access to all these neighbouring countries via Ukraine like they do now.
In fact – before 2014 it was Russia which had all this access that you claim is now a prize!!
Russia controlled all these trillion dollar mineral deposits for centuries – all the way up to 2014!!
What do you mean ”NATO gave the opportunity to take “ – no, prior to 2014 it was Russia that controlled these areas – not NATO!
It’s like you think history only began about 10 years ago in mid-2014!
You have it the wrong way around.
It was in fact RUSSIA which gave the opportunity to NATO in 2004-2014 to NATO/US/UK to take Ukraine – and they did – even today, NATO/US/UK still control about 80% of Ukraine – up from 0% 11 years ago – that’s a HUGE GAIN for NATO/US/UK over the last dozen years!!
Russia has gone backwards by a huge amount since 2014 and is only now fighting to regain what they held for centuries.
Please have a longer perspective than the period since the Maidan coup in assessing this conflict!!

Posted by: Julian | Sep 3 2024 12:03 utc | 356

Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Sep 2 2024 15:46 utc | 326
“Is that it, you sad cunt?”
Posted by: horseguards | Sep 2 2024 22:15 utc | 350
Kindly please stick to the Gentleman’s agreement that the ‘c’ word not be used against a male.
Thank you.

Posted by: canuck | Sep 3 2024 12:46 utc | 357

Re: Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 2 2024 13:47 utc | 299

Well, the Russians will certainly be in kiev (not sure they really want to be in kiev, mind you) before the kiev regime reaches Crimea lol

Well of course.
Considering Crimea has been governed from Moscow for over 90% of the last 240 years I’d certainly conclude Ukraine has no legitimate claim to Crimea whatsoever.
Only fantasists and ignoramuses would ever believe Kyiv would occupy Crimea – I am not one of those knaves.

Posted by: Julian | Sep 3 2024 12:48 utc | 358

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