Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 1, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-209

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

It seems that the Ukrainian army is now betting on holding Pokrovsk, a rail and road hub which happens to also hold the only coal mine usable for coke production. Without the Ukrainian coke the already damaged Ukrainian metallurgic industry will be in a steep decline.

The 72nd brigade was ordered from Ugledar in the south, where it had been in defensive positions over the last two years, towards the Pokrovsk salient. Following that move the Russian army launched an all out attack on Ugledar.

The Ukrainian units involved in the Kursk invasion are reportedly also getting called back to move towards Pokrovsk. But they have by now received a serious beating and have lost a lot of their armored vehicles and fighting capabilities.

Troops on the move are targets. Lets see how many are left when they arrive.

Comments

Peter AU1 @ 189

The Brits are basically willing to risk anything now to try and pull US/Nato into war with Russia.

Looking at the sorry state of the UK I’d say the British elites couldn’t give a flying fuck about what happens to their country. They have houses all over the planet, at this point they probably see enemy nukes landing on the UK as pest control or fumigation, urban re-qualification with extreme prejudice to clear out the post-industrial wasteland and start out fresh once it’s razed. A once in a millennium real estate bonanza. USA no different, the wall to wall fentanyl is to keep people relaxed and on the couch when the civil defense sirens wail.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2024 23:58 utc | 201

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 1 2024 17:38 utc | 87
Excellent article. Perhaps that’s why Rheinmetall have been slow on the uptake.
Most exposure to risk of adverse price movements of commodities can be mitigated; don’t know why the lack hereof applies. Possibly (Ukrainian) counter-party risk (not to mention Iskander risk).

Posted by: horseguards | Sep 2 2024 0:09 utc | 202

After watching an episode of History Legends, my YouTube feed pushed me a video from Anders Puck Nielsen, who I have not watched since the early days of the SMO. The video is titled, ‘How is the War Going? – September 2024.’ I decided to watch it out of curiosity. I started laughing at around the 6-minute mark when he posted a series of “Things to Keep in Mind” when describing the collapse in front of Pokrovsk.
According to Anders, the first thing to keep in mind is: “It is normal to lose terrain during defensive operations.” That was my comedy break for the night. Defensive operations that lose ground are failures by definition. He is describing rear guard actions and retreat to a better position, ignoring the overall attritional aspect of the Russian grind and passing off retreat as success.

Posted by: Activist Potato | Sep 2 2024 0:17 utc | 203

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 1 2024 23:42 utc | 191
I apologize but I am so old that when I was born the axis was still winning in the 2nd world war, then in my time I walked the path of arms, with a particularly low military rank. I did at least half a dozen exercises that were on a par with the one in Kursk both as an attacker and as a defender, but one thing was common: the information we had was so much, precise, detailed and obsessive; we got to know the capacity of the bridges, even of the country roads, within a radius of 50 km, the access roads and the critical points, the villages, the observation posts, the checkpoints, the enemy units deployed, of some we even knew the name of the commander and his lover and countless other relevant information; and all this in the 60s! Now with the means available to NATO and Russia it seems impossible to me that there could be a surprise both tactical and strategic if everything works properly, in fact we have observed a “boring” military campaign, with minimal nibbling of territory and every time someone has tried something new they have paid dearly for it. Russia, leaving, Ukraine now in Kursk; now we have to see if Russia wants to immediately go on the counterattack, with considerable risks of falling into some imaginary trap or is satisfied with a moderate exploitation of the success that leads it to put out of action a congruent number of enemy brigades and acquisitions of land in the Donbass. Now we can see the first yellow spots in the woods and soon the leaves will fall, everything will depend on whether the autumn will be dry or wet.
Automatic translation

Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Sep 2 2024 0:40 utc | 204

Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Sep 1 2024 18:02 utc | 96
Excellent article; you could write a book on how China outwits all competitors.
I strongly recommend the following from 11 April 2024:
https://sputnikglobe.com/20240511/xis-grand-chess-game-how-china-outplays-us-in-europe-1118386978.html
“Jake Reinhard Heidrich Sullivan.” That’s funny.

Posted by: horseguards | Sep 2 2024 0:44 utc | 205

Peter AU1 | Sep 1 2024 23:42 utc | 191
Re Will Schryver.
What Schryver needs to understand about Helmer is that Helmer is a journalist.
Even worse, he’s a journalist of Australian extraction.
He cut his teeth in a place and time where journalists pontificating authoritatively on subjects of which little, or even better, nothing, is known was not only expected, but championed.
— And the malaise has spread globally with several decades of Murdochian influence.
………
HERMIUS | Sep 1 2024 23:57 utc | 198
ReF-16 splat like a bug on the tarmac in Ivano Frankivsk.
Yes. It’s been posted here multiple times across at least 3 threads. [but I forgive you, because the threads are now long and littered with off-topic trash. Mostly a deliberate strategy to achieve exactly that, interesting and pertinent posts smothered]

F-16 pilot killed in Ukraine
Lieutenant Colonel Oleksiy Mes was one of the first Ukrainians allowed to fly American fighters. He spent six months in Denmark learning to fly F-16s.
A local deputy writes that Mes was killed on August 26 – during a missile attack on military and industrial facilities in Ukraine.
One of the strikes was carried out on the F-16 base airport in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast. The day before, the Ukrainian Armed Forces posted a photo of the planes, which revealed their storage location.

– Anna News
https://x.com/Zlatti_71/status/1828835185368133922
~~~~
Activist Potato | Sep 2 2024 0:17 utc | 202
After watching an episode of History Legends, my YouTube feed pushed me a video from Anders Puck Nielsen,
Me too! That ole Al Gorithm works overtime.
You watched, so I don’t need to. (I was never going to!…)

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 2 2024 0:47 utc | 206

Posted by: Newbie | Sep 1 2024 18:25 utc | 106
The perfect client for a Pump-and-Dump.

Posted by: horseguards | Sep 2 2024 0:47 utc | 207

HERMIUS @ 198

Now then, I remember on the day of the massive missile attack ( I think Aug 26th) I heard a report that a hangar in Ivano Frank, west Ukraine, was hit AND that it contained the six f16 fighters Kiev had received. Anyone else hear this?

I recall something like that on TG somewhere, I wrote it off as BS, if it was true, Austin would have flown to Kiev and be kicking Zelensky’s ass like Oliver Hardy kicking Stan Laurel.
hmm, when was the last time Austin was in Kiev, or anyone else out of USA and UK, and all the stars and singers? Remember when Boris was there practically every week? Has Starmer been to Kiev more than once? Where’s Bono and Penn, all turned out to be fair weather friends, Ukraine could use a U2 concert now more than ever! Guess the fat gratuities and duffle bags of money dried up, or Zelensky et al realized what a bunch of useless pendejos all these cats were and kept the money for themselves.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 2 2024 0:50 utc | 208

Posted by: snake | Sep 1 2024 18:37 utc | 110
Good post.
I think the key to Turkey/Syria is a resolution to the problem of the Kurds on Syria’s northern boarder. Erdogan is like India’s Modi – proceed with caution.

Posted by: horseguards | Sep 2 2024 0:54 utc | 209

Posted by: Ornot | Sep 1 2024 19:04 utc | 115
The full title of your second link is,”How Ukraine’s war-torn steel industry has transformed since Russia’s invasion, with closer ties to EU.”
This is euphemistic to say the least: the arse has fell out the Ukrainian market with little to no hope of recovery (wither Azovstal?).

Posted by: horseguards | Sep 2 2024 1:15 utc | 210

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 1 2024 19:08 utc | 116
Hatred for Russia by the West – especially the UK and US -is part of their genetic make-up. It is equal to their love of Nazis.

Posted by: horseguards | Sep 2 2024 1:19 utc | 211

Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 19:25 utc | 120
“Mr Zelensky, about the billions you owe us: forget it, we’ll have your lithium in lieu of payment.” “President Harris, you need to speak to President Putin.”

Posted by: horseguards | Sep 2 2024 1:23 utc | 212

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 1 2024 19:34 utc | 123
“given the vicious colonial history inflicted by British elites on the Irish people.”
Probably a Protestant.

Posted by: horseguards | Sep 2 2024 1:26 utc | 213

I’m surprised that we don’t hear more accounts of Ukr. officials being eliminated by simple phone calls. Perhaps this has happened in regard to mercenaries being hit by missiles in hotels or public buildings. I have heard of cell phones being confiscated from soldiers. I didn’t know if that also applied around Zelensky. Otherwise, it could be ‘dial a Kinhzal’ by disgruntled Ukrainians.

Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 2 2024 1:32 utc | 214

From Marat Khairullin whose reports and insights I have found invaluable. The right mixture of data, experience, and instinct.

About drones: It is interesting that after the publication of the material about the strange publications of a famous blogger with Ukrainian roots, I began to receive anonymous threats and insults. Such a reaction was typical for Prigozhin’s network, here the handwriting is similar, therefore, I think that these are not Ukrops, but precisely this touchy gang.
In this case, the approach is interesting – like, “What are you lying about? There is a catastrophic shortage of drones on the front lines, there are no workshops in the units!” Apparently, the comrade from the bathhouse, it’s possible, of course, does not know that I am a former front-line soldier and still maintain direct ties with my native unit. And including myself, as best I can, together with my readers and viewers, I help create such workshops. But here, the question is not even in particulars, but in general, what is the level of our stupid bloggers who are trying to impose their absolutely pathetic point of view and so aggressively?
Although, this is understandable. Nonentities are always aggressive out of fear, by the way. Aggression is always fear. Therefore, let’s talk again about drones. Why are there any arguing that we don’t have drones? This is, in principle, complete stupidity.
In the first days of the Kursk adventure of the Ukrops, our couch potatoes started to groan again, “Oh, how many drones the enemy has, a complete super-duper advantage!”
I have written more than once that drones for the hohols are a replacement for knocked-out artillery, and for us – an excellent addition to the ever-increasing firepower. Do you feel the difference? Let me illustrate with a concrete example. Arta (artillery) is still the god of war. That is why our Supreme Commander, in May 2022, ordered the then Minister of Defense to create 36 (according to open data) new artillery brigades and divisions.
At the moment, the highlight of such specialized units is the presence of Iskander batteries in each A-brigade. That is, ballistic missiles are now deployed in regular front-line units, roughly speaking. And not like before, when they were only at the disposal of the front headquarters. But that’s not all.
The rapid saturation of infantry units with artillery began. This is how it looks on the ground. Not long ago, I was in one of the volunteer units.

Aggression is always fear. A great line that applies to several of the worst drunks at the bar.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 2 2024 1:34 utc | 215

Marcus Papadopolos discusses the untold history of Ukraine. Interesting stuff.
“>https://youtu.be/8kfJkHnyT_k?si=jdvLimQzYQlYO4kS

Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 2 2024 1:34 utc | 216


There will always be a small local cottage industry market for enthusiasts who like to drive petrol cars.
Just like there’s a cottage industry for reinacters of wars of independence or of the middle ages.
They can reinact the Ukraine was as well if they can find time between planting potatoes and washing clothes by hand.
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Sep 1 2024 18:02 utc | 96

Your cult is pretty funny. EVs do not work where I live and electricity is more expensive than fuel. You will never see one here in the winter … ever and for good reason. The range is extremely limiting and not everyone wants to get a hotel every 4-5 hours. Sure if you live in a city you might be able to make it work, but half of us don’t live there and an EV is not realistic. But keep telling yourself that but don’t come crying when reality issues you a wake up call … not to be confused with woke.

Posted by: anonymous | Sep 2 2024 1:42 utc | 217

Peter AU1@188
….These drone strikes deep into Russia. A couple of hypersonic conventional strikes on Poland and UK with nukes to back them up may mend their ways…..
That sounds like fun. To escalate or not to escalate or, when is a red line not a red line.
I think we will find out soon enough.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 2 2024 2:17 utc | 218

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 1 2024 23:49 utc | 195 “They know that Pokrovsk will be an industrial powerhouse for the Donbass in two years.”
In two years? Seem a bit too soon, given this thing might be still going on in two years.

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 2 2024 2:20 utc | 219

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 2 2024 2:17 utc | 217 “A couple of hypersonic conventional strikes on Poland and UK with nukes to back them up may mend their ways…..”
Doesn’t the UK have their own nukes? And given the trouble that Russia has had in just invading Ukraine, adding Poland to the other side doesn’t seem such a wise idea. This war has dragged on so long that Poland has gone on an arms buying binge that has lasted over two years.
Plus, well the UK and Poland are members of NATO. And I imagine that all those countries who are sending weapons to Ukraine, which is not a legal member of NATO, would likely at least step up their efforts and continue to send weapons if nothing else.

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 2 2024 2:27 utc | 220

Remember that cartoon series featuring the hapless Ukrainian piglet?
Here he is, with his new F-16 toy.
It’s funny
It’s short
It doesn’t require a telegram acc.
https://t.me/llordofwar/369936

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 2 2024 2:35 utc | 221

Posted by: PalmaSailor | Sep 1 2024 21:08 utc | 148
What was the instrument?

Posted by: horseguards | Sep 2 2024 2:50 utc | 222

Posted by: Milites | Sep 1 2024 22:45 utc | 171
An excellent series, plus Olivier’s smooth commentary. On Youtube, and still as gripping.

Posted by: horseguards | Sep 2 2024 3:08 utc | 223

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 2 2024 2:20 utc | 218
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 1 2024 23:49 utc | 195 “They know that Pokrovsk will be an industrial powerhouse for the Donbass in two years.”
In two years? Seem a bit too soon, given this thing might be still going on in two years.
Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 2 2024 2:20 utc | 218
So Ed4, when do you reckon things will stop in regard to Pokrovsk?
A couple of days ago I addressed a post to you and Julian in respect of the same subject, but did not see any response from either yourself or Julian. It is possible that I missed your response(s), and if so I apologise, but I will repeat this post here, and would appreciate your take on the questions raised.
Posted by: Julian | Aug 31 2024 9:49 utc | 443 Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 31 2024 10:04 utc | 447
I have noted (both) your contributions over the pat weeks with some interest. While I do not seriously dispute any factual stuff you have posted (it can be verified from other sources), I would like you to tell us –
(1) How much of the original Ukrainian Donbas fortifications in 2022 still remain garrisoned by Ukrainian forces? A percentage estimate would be an adequate answer.
(2) If Pokrovsky falls to the RF, can Ukraine seriously defend the East bank of the Dnieper? If so, for (roughly) how long, and with what forces?
Thank you in advance-

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Sep 2 2024 3:58 utc | 224

In two years? Seem a bit too soon, given this thing might be still going on in two years.
Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 2 2024 2:20 utc | 218
############
At the rate this is going in Kursk and Donbass, not to mention the Nazis shooting down their F16s with Patriot missiles, this may be lucky to last many more months.
Ukraine is done and has been for over a year. I keep telling you NAFO nerds, these are the death throes of the Cocaine Nazi state. Death Rattles can carry on for some time.
Ukraine may still be spasming 2 years from now, but it won’t be a coherent state with an economy or military. It will be a fraction of its pre-SMO size, missing all of the best lands it had promised to BlackRock.
Russia does not have any pressure to end this one minute before Ukraine is completely de-militarized and de-nazified. And then the war crimes tribunals will begin, that will be must-see TV.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 2 2024 4:33 utc | 225

In the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing on Selidovo. Strategically, the most threatening situation is developing for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this area. From this settlement, a road opens to the southwest – bypassing the rear of the entire second line of defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the west of Donetsk, which relies on Ukrainsk, Gornyak and Kurakhovo.
After the rapid fall of Novogrodovka, the Ukrainian command apparently realized this threat, so reserves were transferred to the defense of Selidovo and the Russian troops failed to immediately take the city. Fierce fighting has been going on there for several days, during which Russian troops took part of the city in the east and are now fighting to capture the center.
Today, the Russian Armed Forces took control of the central city hospital, located in the very south of the city.
Thus, it seems that the Russian army is beginning to encircle the city from both the south and the north, trying to take it in pincers.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/24192

Posted by: Down South | Sep 2 2024 4:33 utc | 226

📋🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Summary for the Morning of 2 September 2024; 06:53 (GMT+3)📍
🎯The RFAF, since evening, have been conducting strikes with missile weapons and ‘Geranium’ UAVs against the enemy’s rear areas. Explosions were heard in #KrivoyRog, #Dnepropetrovsk, #Novomoskovsk, #Sumy, #Kharkov, #Kiev and #Poltava regions. At least a dozen cruise missiles and also about a dozen ballistic missiles were fired at #Kiev alone.
🔹In the #Kursk region, there are battles of the greatest intensity in Sudzhansky and Korenevsky districts. Thus, there are battles near #Komarovka, #Olgovka, the enemy is trying to break through in the direction of #Kremyanoye. The enemy claims that as a result of heavy fighting the villages of #MalayaLoknya, #StarayaSorochina, #NovayaSorochina, #Orlovka, #Maryevka and #Pogrebki are under his control. We reported the actions of enemy groups that unsuccessfully tried to break through between the nodes of our defences in the direction of the #Lgov – #Kurchatov road. In the direction of #Martynovka – #BolshoyeSoldatskoye the enemy is moving reinforcements. The ‘North’ Group of Troops reports that up to 15 AFU militants were killed in the course of repelling attacks on the #CherkasskoyePorechnoye settlement and the #Plekhovo – #Borki section. The attacks were carried out on foot without the use of armoured vehicles.
🔹In the #Pokrovsk direction, the RFAF continue their offensive. There are battles for #Selidovo (population before the war – 35.000), our troops are operating on the outskirts of #Ukrainsk. #Galitsynovka and #Dolinovka, where the AFU hoped to hold defences after withdrawal from #Karlovka, have been liberated. These successes of the Russian Army pose a threat to #Krasnogorovka from the north, which is 8.5 km away from this direction. The fighting for this town has been going on for several months, with a small part of the northwestern outskirts remaining under the AFU.
🔹In the #SouthDonetsk direction, the actions of the RFAF are also interconnected with the successes of our troops in the #Pokrovsk direction. Thus, attacks in the direction of #Kurakhovo through #Maksimilyanovka have intensified. From the #Pokrovsk direction to the Kurakhovskoye Reservoir remains 14.5 km, which after the advancement of the front of our artillery will create additional threats for the enemy garrison in #Kurakhovo. Also in the South Donetsk direction, #Konstantinovka is being cleared, and our pressure in the #Ugledar area is not weakening, the town is being half-covered from the northeast.
💥In #Belgorod and the region, the AFU are not stopping the terrorist shelling. In the morning not all rockets were shot down, there is damage to civilian infrastructure, cars of civilians in residential areas are burning.🎬👇#Shebekino was shelled 10 times over the past day, 3 civilians were wounded. In Belgorod district, a civilian was killed in the village of #Shagarovka. Also under attack #MokrayaOrlovka of Grayvoron urban district, #Petrovka of Belgorod district, #Baytsury of Borisovsky district, #Tishanka of Volokonovsky district, #NayaTavolzhanka, #Murom, Yakovlevsky urban district. One person was injured in Maysky settlement. A kamikaze drone attacked a passenger car travelling on the road between #YasniyeZori and #Nikolskoye. The driver was wounded.
💥In the #DPR, two girls born in 2012, a teenage girl born in 2010 and two teenage boys born in 2010 were injured as a result of the detonation of an explosive object in the village of #Staromikhaylovka in the Kirovsky district of #Donetsk. One child is in serious condition, and four of them are in moderate condition. In the Nikitovsky district of #Gorlovka, a woman born in 1991 and a man born in 1991 were injured as a result of an AFU artillery strike.

https://t.me/two_majors/30861

Posted by: Down South | Sep 2 2024 4:37 utc | 227

Beats me, when I’m 95 maybe the book will come out.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2024 23:40 utc | 190
Would that be before or after the books on the JFK assassination or the truth about 9/11?

Posted by: Honzo | Sep 2 2024 4:56 utc | 228

At the rate this is going in Kursk and Donbass, not to mention the Nazis shooting down their F16s with Patriot missiles, this may be lucky to last many more months.
Ukraine is done and has been for over a year. I keep telling you NAFO nerds, these are the death throes of the Cocaine Nazi state. Death Rattles can carry on for some time.
Ukraine may still be spasming 2 years from now, but it won’t be a coherent state with an economy or military. It will be a fraction of its pre-SMO size, missing all of the best lands it had promised to BlackRock.
Russia does not have any pressure to end this one minute before Ukraine is completely de-militarized and de-nazified. And then the war crimes tribunals will begin, that will be must-see TV.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 2 2024 4:33 utc | 224
Amen.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 2 2024 5:13 utc | 229

Would that be before or after the books on the JFK assassination or the truth about 9/11?
Posted by: Honzo | Sep 2 2024 4:56 utc | 227
Everytime I see the phrase “conspiracy theorist” used as a cudgel, I know that the person saying it is a liar. Can see it all over the MSM.

Posted by: Wisco | Sep 2 2024 5:16 utc | 230

if you live in a city you might be able to make it work
Posted by: anonymous | Sep 2 2024 1:42 utc | 216

If you live in a city you don’t need a car. Local transport is the whole point of cities.
The principle problem with batteries powering cars is their dead weight. Unlike fuel whose dead weight is burned away batteries must be constantly hauled, on average at half their power density capacity. They are heavy. The haulage requirement for EVs transforms personal automobiles into trucks.
Also, electric vehicles have been powered in cities by overhead wires for more than a century.

Posted by: too scents | Sep 2 2024 5:25 utc | 231

Posted by: Suresh | Sep 1 2024 23:58 utc | 199
NS blow is a US operation made with full compliance of NATO.
At a bare minimum, at the time, NATO had it’s eyes closed on the Baltic Sea.
All the governments are/were aware of this, also the German one probably blackmailed and/or lured into it.
Now that the operation turned out as a disaster, expecially but not only, for Germany economy everyone will try to put the blame on someone else.

Posted by: Mario | Sep 2 2024 5:45 utc | 232

@watcher 135
Well, if nothing else it warms one’s heart watching the videos of the brave soldiers planting their Red war banners all over Donbass as we speak.

Posted by: Tichy | Sep 2 2024 7:16 utc | 233

Some, speculation on the Kursk offensive. Four parties to the event. Goose steppers, Russia, Plus two US factions. Faction one cares nothing for Ukraine but wants to use it a a weapon to hurt Russia in any way it can. Faction two has already written off Ukraine as a loss, and want to leave asap to get started on the China project (as insane as that is.)
Someone in the CIA came up with the Kursk offensive.
First, the idea was sold to the movie nazis as a grand publicity stunt. As best I can tell it was supposed to look like the climactic battle in the Ender’s Game movie, where (spoiler) most of the military forces were sacrificed just to get a small group to the objective, in order to blow it up. In the case of Kursk, this objective was the nuclear power plant, with the aim of scarring the Russia landscape with radioactivity, a mini Chernobyl. (But lets pretend we don’t know what they were aiming for.) It was going to be a spectacular movie, for those cinematically inclined leaders who understand little else.
It was also sold this way to the “hurt Russia at any cost” US faction. Those who don’t care about anything as long as they can stick a knife in Russia. The complete loss of the brigade is entire acceptable to this group, as nothing makes them happier than slavic people killing each other.
The second US faction, the “lets get out quick” group got a slightly different sales pitch. Kursk was presented as a way for the US to exit rapidly, by “rolling up the network” (in CIA parlance). To end the war, satisfy the Russian goals of denazification and demilitarization. So, order the hard core Nazis to their doom in Kursk and make sure they waste as much lives and military equipment as possible.
Now since this is the CIA, no plan can be complete without a double-cross. In the case of the Kursk offensive, simply warn the Russians where and when the attack will occur.
This last part didn’t work so well, though, since Russian intelligence couldn’t verify the tip. Some forces around Kursk were moved in advance a bit, but not enough the make the this the complete death trap the CIA wanted. And this is due to the simple truth that there is no one left in the CIA that rational people can trust.
So while the thrust to the KNPP was stopped, complete denazification didn’t happen, for now (9/1). Of course the movie Nazis who didn’t die still haven’t completely escaped the trap, so we’ll see how the retreat goes.
Dumb people can be tricked over and over, so watch for a similar suicidal attack aimed at the Zaporizhna nuclear plant (ZNPP) coming soon. Not as good as the KNPP disaster would have been, since valuable Ukraine real estate will be damaged, making Black Rock unhappy.

Posted by: spindz | Sep 2 2024 7:57 utc | 234

anonymous, two cents
I too was very anti-EVs, posted dozens of anti-EV posts, about short range, risk of burning, exotic metals needed, etc etc.
Now I’ve got one and I’ve become a bit of a convert to EVs.
Wasn’t my choice really, our company have an EV only policy for employee cars.
The driving experience is much better in an EV, low weight distribution and efficient engine with no gears needed,
high thrust-to-weight ratio, is fun to drive.
Also recharging is surprisingly easy and reliable, one loses ones fear of travelling long distances quite quickly.
My experience is being replicated by billions all round the world.
55% of new cars in China are EVs and that will only increase further.
They’re not scared of technology and not scared of making power stations.
Being shut out of the Luddite west is not such a biggie, China are making a world market for themselves by developing economies in South America,
Middle east, Africa etc.
Western climate fanaticism has proved a hilarious own goal as China dominate the EV market and soon the global car market.
New battery technologies such as aluminium graphene will give EVs longer, not shorter range than fuel cars.
Plus less risk of fire.
That will be the nail in the coffin of the ICE automobile.
Be careful what you wish for, Greta Thunberg LOL

Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Sep 2 2024 8:36 utc | 235

spindz | Sep 2 2024 7:57 utc | 233
a nice movie script. now please show me your evidence any of that has an ounce of truth to it?

Posted by: Fred | Sep 2 2024 8:49 utc | 236

In Russia’s booming economy the problem is finding workers:
https://youtu.be/3FNiqljuit0?si=T4va2CgSuC0TACOG
OK they’re all dying on the battlefield, get off on that if you must,
but I don’t think that is the reason – it’s real economic growth
consequent of being free of western economic parasitism.
The effect of a big economic de-worming tablet.
Also the farm sector in Russia is red hot as China cancels all food imports from the Fourth Reich and will import food from Russia instead.
https://youtu.be/k31DWfNV9WI?si=QgEeGyLB42rS7ytb
Just as well farmers in the USA are not urban progressive elites so they don’t matter.

Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Sep 2 2024 9:03 utc | 237

55% of new cars in China are EVs
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Sep 2 2024 8:36 utc | 234

55% of the cars made in China, or 55% of the cars consumed in China? Was your EV made in China?
The statistics are slippery. What counts as a car in China?
A regular commute to the same destination, for example as a requirement for employment, is best served by mass transit, ideally subsidized by the employer. In practically every case an automobile is a luxury item. Luxury is were the revenue is.
The Chinese were very clever to exploit Western “car culture” as the thin edge of the wedge to promote their export industries. Once they have displaced the local industrial capacity sustained by Western automobile manufacturing the Chinese will abandon automobiles as easily as they embraced them. They’ve got no Route 66.

Posted by: too scents | Sep 2 2024 9:05 utc | 238

They’ve got no Route 66.
Posted by: too scents | Sep 2 2024 9:05 utc | 237
Check the length of US highways vs the length and quality of China’s highways.
Perhaps try a trip from the coast to Xinjiang or Beijing to Tibet. From any where in the more populated regions of China to those destination.
Plenty of Chinese doing road trips now.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 2 2024 9:12 utc | 239

Plenty of Chinese doing road trips now.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 2 2024 9:12 utc | 238

Where are the songs, movies, and novels about Chinese road trips?
Road trips are better with more people than fit comfortably in a car.

Posted by: too scents | Sep 2 2024 9:17 utc | 240

Too scents @230 re: public transport.
Off topic.
I assume you’re a European? (I am too.) Well, in theory yes, in practice no. If you live in a city, and it’s a small enough city, and you work in the same city… Yes. That’s not a common scenario for working class people.
Here in Sweden, we have pretty good public transport by international comparison despite it being but a shadow of its former self after decades of capitalist profiteering, neglected infrastructure and politically motivated industrial sabotage. Even so almost everyone gets here by car. I bike. By e-bike I get to work in 25 minutes. Public transport would mean a one hour trip under ideal conditions, and they aren’t often ideal. (And it involves twenty minutes of walking.) The factories aren’t in the middle of town, and often, the buses don’t even start running early enough.

Posted by: Tichy | Sep 2 2024 9:31 utc | 241

too scents | Sep 2 2024 9:17 utc | 239
Look up road trips in China on youtube. Plenty of them and most speak English for the yt videos.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 2 2024 9:31 utc | 242

too scents
This ones Jeremy Clarkson in China. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-XDxCb92X4
Plenty of videos also on China’s spectacular roads, especially in the mountainous southern regions. China isn’t building roads like that just to phase out cars.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 2 2024 9:36 utc | 243

Another from Top Gear in China. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=925l3ICmiiQ
That video is posted to youtube in 2021 and there was about 3700 new cars on the road each and everyday. Average prosperity in China is rapidly increasing and cars are affordable.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 2 2024 9:47 utc | 244

China isn’t building roads like that just to phase out cars.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 2 2024 9:36 utc | 242

The problem with automobiles it the selfishness they engender. That’s great for individuals but bad for society.
I think China favors the group over the individual and building cars to serve a broader economic interest than personal consumption.

Posted by: too scents | Sep 2 2024 9:52 utc | 245

Posted by: too scents | Sep 2 2024 9:52 utc | 244
Man I butchered the grammar on that comment.
Also, Jeremy Clarkson is the embodiment of the glorification of selfishness.

Posted by: too scents | Sep 2 2024 9:54 utc | 246

Thank you, B., for keeping this current.
Also, thanks to the regulars for keeping this a constantly fascinating read.
“Troops on the move are targets.”
Russia appears to be dialing 6 on an 11-point pain scale.

Posted by: whirlX | Sep 2 2024 10:00 utc | 247

too scents | Sep 2 2024 9:54 utc | 245
Well, on this subject at least, you’re a bit bigoted.
There are none so blind as those who refuse to see…

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 2 2024 10:15 utc | 248

Superbugs infecting the wounds of Ukrainian soldiers. Looks like something escaped from the pentagon bio labs.

Doctors have found “superbugs” in the bodies of Ukrainian soldiers — The Times
▪️Soldiers who were wounded in the fighting in Ukraine and are being treated abroad are increasingly faced with infections that are resistant to the strongest antibiotics.
▪️The article describes the case of a 35-year-old soldier whose wounds were accompanied by a severe bacterial infection. Doctors at St George’s Hospital in London used five different antibiotics, but the infection could not be stopped, which led to the amputation of his leg.
▪️Dr Luke Moore, an infectious disease specialist, called the situation with resistant bacteria a “hidden pandemic”. According to him, infections most often occur in medical institutions, and not on the battlefield. Similar cases have been recorded in hospitals in Norway, the Netherlands and Germany, where Ukrainian soldiers were treated. Professor Christian Riesbeck from Lund University said he had never encountered such high levels of bacterial resistance as in patients from Ukrainian hospitals.
▪️The problem of antibiotic resistance threatens even routine medical procedures, experts say. A high-level meeting of the UN General Assembly on this issue will be held in September 2024. A joint study by the US Center for Disease Control and the Ukrainian Ministry of Health has shown that the spread of resistant infections has increased against the backdrop of the war.

https://x.com/Cyberspec1/status/1830464166295216294

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 2 2024 10:33 utc | 249

Posted by: Mr.A | Sep 1 2024 15:21 utc | 35 “conversation has shifted from discussions about F-16s to the alarming prospect of long-range missile strikes deep within Russian”
Consequence of it not being a 3, 30, 300, or even a 900 day war.

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 2 2024 10:35 utc | 250

As Ukrainians retreat, their contact lines are getting shorter. This means that they can defend their territory with less soldiers.
This mean that the war would last longer.

Posted by: vargas | Sep 2 2024 10:43 utc | 251

Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Sep 2 2024 9:03 utc | 236 “OK they’re all dying on the battlefield, get off on that if you must, but I don’t think that is the reason – it’s real economic growth”
It is a combination of reasons, the soldiers fighting and supporting the fight in Ukraine, the soldiers killed or too injured to work, the people who left Russia so they would not have to fight in Ukraine and the government spending to buy the stuff needed to fight in Ukraine. Put all that on top of the regular Russian economy.
But be careful about calling it real as someday most of the 7% of GDP the Russians are spending on their military will go away and it will cause quite the headache.

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 2 2024 10:43 utc | 252

Russias nuclear doctrine that is being rewritten.

Elena Panina, Director of the Institute for International Strategic Studies:
“Changing Russia’s nuclear doctrine is only the first step. The United States must believe in it.
The most important feature of the conflict in Ukraine is the fact that, given strategic nuclear parity, one of the parties (the United States) considers it possible and risk-free to wage war through an intermediary (Ukraine) with another nuclear power (Russia). In essence, strategic nuclear deterrence does not work.
If we take the years of the Cold War, the interests of the United States and the USSR clashed on the territory of third countries, but their national territories were never the arena of full-scale military action.
▪️ As for the content of the changes, as Vladimir Putin put it, there is a need to “adopt the developments of our American partners and their ideas for ensuring their security.” This would actually mean introducing a provision on a preemptive strike into the Russian nuclear doctrine.
Note that changing Russia’s nuclear doctrine in connection with the current situation is only the first necessary measure. Then practical steps must be taken – not necessarily in the nuclear sphere – so that our geopolitical adversary in the person of the United States believes that the wording on paper will be followed by the use of nuclear weapons if necessary. Only then will our nuclear doctrine once again begin to perform the functions of strategic deterrence.”

https://x.com/vicktop55/status/1830545525831041459

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 2 2024 10:45 utc | 253

Kursk yesterday
Tanks are on the rise again, personnel and other vehicles not so much.
Russian Defence Ministry report on repelling an invasion attempt of the AFU on the territory of the Russian Federation (1 September 2024)
▫️Units of the Sever Group of Forces supported by Army Aviation and artillery repelled four attacks launched by the enemy’s assault detachments in the direction of Korenevo and Aleksandrovka.
▫️Moreover, three attempts of the enemy to launch attacks were thwarted in the direction of Nizhnaya Parovaya and Pogrebki. As a result, the AFU losses amounted to up to 30 troops killed and wounded, two armoured fighting vehicles, and two motor vehicles. One AFU serviceman surrendered.
▫️Aviation and artillery strikes and actions of troops inflicted losses on manpower and hardware clusters of 22nd, 61st, 115th mechanised brigades, 80th, 82nd air assault brigades, 152nd Jaeger Brigade, and 1st National Guard Brigade near Apanasovka, Borki, Vishnyovka, Gordeyevka, Ivashkovskiy, Lyubimovka, Lebedevka, Martynovka, Mikhailovka, Novoivanovka, Obukhovka, Orlovka, Plekhovo, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Russkoye Porechnoye, and Snagost.
▫️The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue reconnaissance and search operations in forestry areas to locate and eliminate enemy sabotage groups attempting to get to the depth of the Russian territory.
▫️Operational-Tactical Aviation delivered strikes at concentration areas in Sumy region of reserve manpower and military hardware of the 21st, 22nd, 41st mechanised brigades, 17th Tank Brigade, 80th, 82nd, 95th air assault brigades of the AFU, 36th Marine Brigade, 103rd, 107th, 129th territorial defence brigades near Belopoliye, Boyaro-Lezhachi, Glukhov, Luka, Obody, Orlovka, Svessa, Pershe Travnya, Sumy, and Yunakovka.
▫️Over the past 24 hours, the AFU losses amounted to up to 360 troops and 23 units of hardware, including four tanks, one infantry fighting vehicle, two armoured personnel carriers, 16 armoured fighting vehicles, six artillery guns, including two Polish-made Krab self-propelled artillery systems, three mortars, one electronic warfare station, one ANT/PQ-50 counter-battery radar station, and seven motor vehicles.
▫️Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 8,500 troops, 80 tanks, 37 infantry fighting vehicles, 69 armoured personnel carriers, 537 armoured fighting vehicles, 249 motor vehicles, 62 artillery guns, 16 multiple-launch rocket system launchers, including four of HIMARS system and two of MLRS system, five SAM launchers, 13 electronic warfare stations, six counter-battery radars, one air defence radar station, six engineering vehicles, including two counterobstacle vehicles and one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle.
The operation to neutralise the AFU units is in progress.
🔹 Russian Defence Ministry

Posted by: Newbie | Sep 2 2024 10:45 utc | 254

Posted by: vargas | Sep 2 2024 10:43 utc | 250
When you abandon a fortified line war is going to be shorter.

Posted by: Mario | Sep 2 2024 10:50 utc | 255

As Ukrainians retreat, their contact lines are getting shorter. This means that they can defend their territory with less soldiers.
This mean that the war would last longer.
Posted by: vargas | Sep 2 2024 10:43 utc | 250
Truly masterful planning and execution, lose positively!

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Sep 2 2024 10:54 utc | 256

What was the instrument?
Posted by: horseguards | Sep 2 2024 2:50 utc | 221
It was a LIBOR interest rate swap.

Posted by: PalmaSailor | Sep 2 2024 10:54 utc | 257

It was a LIBOR interest rate swap.
Posted by: PalmaSailor | Sep 2 2024 10:54 utc | 256

Went pirate? You don’t have to honor a fraudulent contract.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal#Cartel_operation

Posted by: too scents | Sep 2 2024 11:04 utc | 258

Ed4
“But be careful about calling it real as someday most of the 7% of GDP the Russians are spending on their military will go away and it will cause quite the headache.”
With the NAZO Fourth Reich goal towards Russia, of extermination, being identical to that of the Third Reich,
I don’t see that transition to peacetime spending happening any time soon.

Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Sep 2 2024 11:06 utc | 259

I don’t see that transition to peacetime spending happening any time soon.
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Sep 2 2024 11:06 utc | 258

Very soon most of the Russian MIC will be supplying weapon exports to all over the world, as no one who has any choice would want to buy American.

Posted by: Poslan1 | Sep 2 2024 11:11 utc | 260

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Sep 2 2024 3:58 utc | 223
Sorry, missed that posting. While I have loaded large parts of this website into a Chat GPT, that was mostly for entertainment.
I suspect that Russia will continue to drive forward in Pokrovsk at a high cost to them. I don’t know what Ukraine is thinking but I would think Ukraine would be pushing reserves there to slow the advance. They still do have some. And they still have a pool to draft from. The lower end of the draft age in Ukraine is 25 years old. They can still lower it. In Russia, they draft 18 year olds (plenty of deferements). Yes, in Russia, they generally keep them out of the fighting, but if you are fighting for the survival of your country, as Ukraine is, they would end up fighting.
A point estimate answer to your first question about original Donbas fortifications is 25%, +/- 5%.
The answer to your second question is yes, Ukraine can seriously defend the East bank. It will be hard but I would think that Ukraine would curtail other more adventurous activities to do so. I don’t know for how long, but on the other hand Russia will need time to consolidate their advances and bring for the needed stuff for their next advance.
The 30,000 foot view is that Russia can still impose its will on Ukraine; the cost is just many orders of magnitude higher than Putin expected. Ukraine ‘wins’ by making that cost so high that Russia eventually decides it isn’t worth it to get all the marbles. This SMO (slow moving operation) means that Ukraine still has a chance to do that. See my comment at @249.

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 2 2024 11:11 utc | 261

What is clear is that London and Washington placed their regime in kyiv (as they did in Santiago de Chile) and sold a cruel fantasy to the Ukrainians to sacrifice them in the Ukrainian Gambit that began in 1997 when William Perry was replaced by William Cohen.

Posted by: Simon | Sep 2 2024 11:19 utc | 262

In this appalling tragedy we can argue whether the Russians are more stupid than the stupid Ukrainians, but what is as clear as a nursing home soup is the cynicism, fanaticism and contempt for human life of our masters in London and Washington and their bloody tribal god that merged (ca. 500/600) with Roman imperial ideology, and again and again until its last version (1967-)

Posted by: Simon | Sep 2 2024 11:29 utc | 263

Zelenskyy signs law on increasing excise duties on gasoline, diesel and LPG
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a law on raising the excise duty on gasoline by 13.6% from September, from EUR 213.5 to EUR 242.6 per 1,000 liters, and the excise duty on diesel fuel by 27.3%, from EUR 139.5 to EUR 177. 6 per 1,000 liters, for LPG – 2.8 times, from EUR 52 to EUR 148 per 1,000 liters.
This is evidenced by the data on the bill No. 11256-2, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
The Verkhovna Rada adopted the bill on July 17, 2024.
On August 21, it was signed by the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, Ruslan Stefanchuk, and sent to the President for signature on the same day.
On the card of the bill, it is indicated that the bill was signed by Zelenskyy on September 1.
As of the morning of September 2, the law has not yet been published in the Voice of Ukraine publication.
This bill brings the current provisions of the Tax Code into compliance with the provisions of Directive No. 2003/96/EC.
From September 1, 2024, excise duties on diesel fuel should increase to EUR 177.6 per 1,000 liters, from 2025 – to EUR 215.70 per 1,000 liters, from 2026 – to EUR 253.8 per 1,000 liters, from 2027 – to EUR 291.9 per 1,000 liters, from 2028 – to EUR 330 per 1,000 liters.
Excise duties on liquefied gas (propane or a mixture of propane and butane) from September 1, 2024 should increase to EUR 148 per 1,000 liters, from 2025 to EUR 173 per 1,000 liters, from 2026 to EUR 198 1,000 liters, from 2027 – to EUR 223 per 1,000 liters, from 2028 – to EUR 250 per 1,000 liters.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in July 2024, the Verkhovna Rada increased excise duties on fuel.
From July 2023, excise duty and value-added tax (VAT) on fuel returned to pre-war levels, in particular, the excise duty on gasoline increased 2.1 times, from EUR 100 per 1,000 liters to EUR 213.5 per 1,000 liters, the excise duty on diesel fuel – by 39.5%, from EUR 100 per 1,000 liters to EUR 139.5 per 1,000 liters, and the VAT rate – from 7% to 20%.

https://ukranews.com/en/news/1030929-zelenskyy-signs-law-on-increasing-excise-duties-on-gasoline-diesel-and-lpg
At what point does a government become a junta? Is it before or after all presidential and parliamentary legitimacy has expired?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 2 2024 11:29 utc | 264

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 2 2024 11:29 utc | 263
Most of the EU government are juntas while being legally legit.

Posted by: Mario | Sep 2 2024 11:31 utc | 265

The 30,000 foot view is that Russia can still impose its will on Ukraine; the cost is just many orders of magnitude higher than Putin expected. Ukraine ‘wins’ by making that cost so high that Russia eventually decides it isn’t worth it to get all the marbles.
Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 2 2024 11:11 utc | 260
False premises here “Ed”. Since when and where has Russia stated their formal policy of “imposing their will” on Ukraine. As far as I know the SMO is about de-militarization of Ukraine, which is proceeding apace. There is no schedule or timeline for that.
Further, how do you know what Putin thinks or doesn’t think? Do you have his ear? Are you in the Kremlin’s inner circle? I highly doubt that. And if not, then you cannot presume to know what Putin expected about the alleged high costs of the SMO. You’re just repeating Western talking points by the DC crowd – 99 percent of whom have never been to Russia.
I can say this, that this war is vital to Russia, and that Russia has far from depleted its resources it could bring to bear to this conflict. As Putin himself said after the SMO started: “We’ve barely even started.” There are orders of magnitude of pain that the Russians can still inflict on Ukraine. However, most of that won’t be necessary.

Posted by: James M. | Sep 2 2024 11:39 utc | 266

“The 30,000 foot view is that Russia can still impose its will on Ukraine; the cost is just many orders of magnitude higher than Putin expected. Ukraine ‘wins’ by making that cost so high that Russia eventually decides it isn’t worth it to get all the marbles.”
Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 2 2024 11:11 utc | 260
I have to disagree with you, Ed-the ‘cost’ is higher than Putin thought, yet, the real ‘game’ that the West tried to play with Russia has relatively little to do with the military sphere, the arrogant Western leaders had supreme confidence in their sanctions.
They didn’t realize that Russia’s reluctance to press the issue in 2014-15 (I’m sure Russia understood the perfidy of the Minsk accords) is that it took them 8 years or so to prepare for the sanctions they knew would be inevitable if they invaded..
Further, Russia economy is rowing faster than any of the Western economies so it isn’t hurting Russia.
Finally, Russia has the home ground-easier logistics-and they have about 25% of Sovereign debt that the West owes- so in terms time, time is on Russia’s side.

Posted by: canuck | Sep 2 2024 11:53 utc | 267

“The 30,000 foot view is that Russia can still impose its will on Ukraine; the cost is just many orders of magnitude higher than Putin expected. Ukraine ‘wins’ by making that cost so high that Russia eventually decides it isn’t worth it to get all the marbles.”
Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 2 2024 11:11 utc | 260
What? Nonsense.
What figure did Lindsey Graham put on the value of the resources in Donbas? Was it 13 trillion dollars? And youre saying it “isn’t worth it”?

Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 2 2024 11:57 utc | 268

“But be careful about calling it real as someday most of the 7% of GDP the Russians are spending on their military will go away and it will cause quite the headache.”
Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 2 2024 10:43 utc | 251
That is true but there are two countervailing factors that will ameliorate that liability:
1. ROW will be more interested in Russian arms as they are cheaper, more durable and at least as effective or more than expensive Western wunderwuff-and they will have good advertising winning the SMO
2. War does accelerate technology/patents so that some of the new ideas on warfare can be implemented into the economic sphere brining more profits to Russian firms and the Russian economy in general.

Posted by: canuck | Sep 2 2024 12:03 utc | 269

the “cost is to high” thing is bullshit. for russia its about survival angainst constant agression from nato (remind me again, of all the wars nato is involved, how many of them were defensive in nature? anyone?).
there is no price on freedom. and i mean true freedom, not what the americans preach constantly. our western “freedom” is nothing but servitude. just look at our german government. a bunch of cucks and puppets, ignoring what the voter says, and spitting us in the face. just look at the “welt talk” recently with the afd woman and our current fucking nazi cuck jens spahn (im so mad right now) and his constant projecting and crying about “hate” and other bullmanure…
no, the russians know exactly what “we” in the west are. and they will do what is neccessary to neuter this threat.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Sep 2 2024 12:09 utc | 270

Posted by: canuck | Sep 2 2024 11:53 utc | 266
My guess is that Ed4 is probably saying the cost in Russian soldiers might be a major factor in determining when to stop. It would be a Pyrrhic victory to lose too many men in the prime of their lives. It’s already too late for Ukraine on that score.

Posted by: KMRIA | Sep 2 2024 12:15 utc | 271

Quite a long piece so haven’t quoted it all. If the cannon fodder is pulled from Kursk, morale will collapse in Ukraine so the comedian is between a rock and a hard spot. Now, on top of lengthening the frontline with the move into Kursk, the salient Russia has now pushed out on the eastern front adds nearly as much frontline as Kursk.

Resident
The Pentagon demands that the Presidential Office stop the Kursk operation, so as not to repeat the Bakhmut meat grinder, where the APU lost the best reserves, which were then not enough in the summer counteroffensive. For Zelensky, this issue is personal, if he gives the order to withdraw troops, then this is a personal failure of the President.
The offensive in the Kursk region weakens the already shaky front of Ukraine, as these experienced brigades are not used in defense, according to the article Foreign Affairs.
According to the publication, continuing only to defend, Ukraine would have “a good chance to exhaust the Russian offensive, while solving problems with personnel and stabilizing the front line by winter.” And already in 2025, it would be able to launch an offensive against weakened Russian forces, and the risks would be less…..

https://t.me/s/rezident_ua

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 2 2024 12:17 utc | 272

Stalin was a murderer from Georgia who hated Russia with all his soul, he was succeeded by the head of the Ukrainian Bolsheviks, who was succeeded by Brevnev who was Ukrainian
It was the Russians who dismantled the USSR in exchange for being accepted into the common European home, and they received only insults, threats, lies and deceit
Let us remember the conversation that put an end to the Cold War, and let us remember that it cost millions of lives to defeat Adolf’s madness and reach Berlin
– If we leave Germany then Germany would be a sovereign country and could develop the Bomb and we have to think of everyone
– Yes, said the Russian, the Poles have already expressed their concern to me
– Well, said the American, then if it is all right with you we will stay in Germany and NATO will not advance “an inch to the East”

Posted by: Simon | Sep 2 2024 12:20 utc | 273

@Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 2 2024 11:57 utc | 267
An excellent point. Russia and China are building a whole parallel infrastructure for grain trading and transportation that is outside Western control (the Sino-Russian land grain corridor). Russia has already very significantly increased its grain production and exports, and the grain corridor connects China with the Eurasian Economic Union countries (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia). Adding the dark soils of Ukraine to that would be a huge blow to the West, and would significantly improve China’s food security and its ability to disconnect from Western food suppliers (e.g. US, Canada, Australia, France), while nullifying Western sanctions as all payments are in local currencies and transportation is within EurAsia over land. This can also facilitate exporting grains to South East Asia and MENA outside Western sanctions, further displacing Western arg-business.
Then think about all of the minerals and natural gas under Ukraine’s soil that can be traded within EurAsia and far away from Western sanctions and Western control. Then add in control of the Black Sea and direct borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Moldova, Transnistria – that’s another huge gain and would transform the political situation in the Balkans. Then add in the massive increase in Russia’s international esteem in having defeated the West in a major conflict, and the huge hit to the West’s perceived power.
The prize is huge, and NATO gave the opening to take it. It is more than worth the price.

Posted by: Roger | Sep 2 2024 12:24 utc | 274

The 30,000 foot view is that Russia can still impose its will on Ukraine; the cost is just many orders of magnitude higher than Putin expected. Ukraine ‘wins’ by making that cost so high that Russia eventually decides it isn’t worth it to get all the marbles. This SMO (slow moving operation) means that Ukraine still has a chance to do that. See my comment at @249.
Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 2 2024 11:11 utc | 260
The drones are going to keep coming whatever scrap of paper Russia signs or at least that is the safe assumption after thr various Minsk. Might as well keep going until Ukraine goes at least the way of Georgia. Even that would still be less than ideal but anything less would be a defeat.

Posted by: Satepestage | Sep 2 2024 12:29 utc | 275

Posted by: Ed4 | Sep 2 2024 11:11 utc | 260
Thank you for answering the questions I raised @223 and for your considered replies.
I do not necessarily agree with your predictions about the defence of Pokrovsky and the East bank of the Dnieper, but I almost certainly have less ”real world” information on the full tactical situation in the Donbas than you, so I will not attempt to vigorously challenge your forecasts.
I am a bit surprised at your estimate of only 25+/-5% of the original Ukrainian fortifications still being defended by Ukraine in a viable manner. I would have thought it would be closer to 50%, but again I have only the information I glean from MA and Western MSM (which should always be viewed with some scepticism).
I note that others have referred to your 30,000 foot view, so will not make any further comment here.
Thank you again for your reply.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Sep 2 2024 12:33 utc | 276

My guess is that Ed4 is probably saying the cost in Russian soldiers might be a major factor in determining when to stop Posted by: KMRIA | Sep 2 2024 12:15 utc | 270
He hasn’t read much Russian history if he thinks that. How many soldiers did the Red Army lose in WWII? Doesn’t matter because they beat the Wehrmacht. Same for this war when it’s over.

Posted by: James M. | Sep 2 2024 12:37 utc | 277

My guess is that Ed4 is probably saying the cost in Russian soldiers might be a major factor in determining when to stop. It would be a Pyrrhic victory to lose too many men in the prime of their lives.
Posted by: KMRIA | Sep 2 2024 12:15 utc | 270

And my quess he is just dooming as the fucking troll he is.
But considering your thoughts as a true worry, I want to correct your wording. It might have been a Pyrrhic victory should Russia follow any fucked-up advice by trolls like Ed4, but fortunately she does not. So, it would not be a cheap victory, but I am sure Russia will easily manage.

Posted by: Poslan1 | Sep 2 2024 12:41 utc | 278

@Posted by: Simon | Sep 2 2024 12:20 utc | 272
Be quiet with your warmed up Cold War Bullshit. Stalin transformed the USSR into the nation that was capable of beating Germany, and the world owes a debt of gratitude for the USSR destruction of the Nazis. With the opening of the Soviet archives, much of the lies about him have been substantially demolished. The West always demonizes those that it cannot control – Stalin, Mao, Milosevic, Hussein, Assad, the Chinese Party-state; while lionizing even the monsters that it can, such as the Shah of Iran, numerous Central American and Caribbean dictators, the Saudi Royal Family, the genocidal Netanyahu, the genocidal Suharto the list is endless.
Stalin was succeeded by the traitor Khrushchev who had to dismantle Stalin’s reputation to give legitimacy to his illegitimate coup government. Then followed by the feckless and corrupt Brezhnev, they slowly dismantled what Stalin had built. Even then, the Soviet Union outgrew the Western nations from the late 1920s all the way to the 1970s. The West’s plans for the Cold War are well documented, including the rebuilding of West Germany and the lack of deNazification.
The Soviet people voted to maintain the Soviet Union but the traitorous leaders of Russia and Ukraine dissolved it anyway. Across Eastern Europe after WW2 populations were freed from land-owning elites and gained hugely in their ability to gain an education, gain a good job and take part in the life of their nation. For example, Poland was an absolute shithole run by a small elite that kept the rest of the population down, uneducated and poor. The 30 years after WW2 were ones of great progress for these nations. It was only with the 1970s that sclerosis set in.
The Soviet Union collapsed because of the activities of the inept hooligan Gorbachev and his little coterie, which greatly freed the corrupt elements of the Soviet regime and set off a nomenklatura scramble to grab everything they could. Then Russia collapsed additionally because of the corruption and naivety of Yeltsin. The West hates Putin for the same reason that they hated Stalin, they can’t control him.

Posted by: Roger | Sep 2 2024 12:44 utc | 279

Peter AU1 @252 re: nuclear doctrine
The statement seems entirely correct and grounded in self-evidence. The question is if it’s at all possible to make the US understand that Russia is serious about using it’s nuclear weapons without actually using them. I can’t think of a warning of less magnitude than an effective conventional strike on NATO soil. Even then, the maniacs in the White House might not care unless it hits the US. A reciprocative strike on the early warning systems?
I hope someone else has a better _and working_ idea.

Posted by: Tichy | Sep 2 2024 12:47 utc | 280

“The West hates Putin for the same reason that they hated Stalin, they can’t control him.”

That’s true, as true as the fact that you look like a stupid Bolshevik.

Posted by: Simon | Sep 2 2024 12:48 utc | 281

“The Soviet Union collapsed because of the activities of the inept hooligan Gorbachev…”
Posted by: Roger | Sep 2 2024 12:44 utc | 278
You are right on about Stalin-yes he was ruthless SOB but if he hadn’t been Hitler would have prevailed.
You are wrong about Gorbachev-the USSR failed because of its corrupt, Cyclopean Communist system, not the actions of their last leader.

Posted by: canuck | Sep 2 2024 12:53 utc | 282

Posted by: too scents | Sep 2 2024 9:52 utc | 244
“Also, Jeremy Clarkson is the embodiment of the glorification of selfishness.”
Posted by: too scents | Sep 2 2024 9:54 utc | 245
No you are incorrect.
have you seen Clarkson’s latest series (1), Clarkson’s farm where he tries to save the independent English famer?
Why don’t you watch it-if you do, I’m confident you will change your opinion.
1. https://www.primevideo.com/detail/Clarksons-Farm/0SHGKA0J8D4G01ZGD647627NEJ

Posted by: canuck | Sep 2 2024 12:57 utc | 283

Ah, I see trolls have taken up residence in many heads ….give fucking over already, so everyone has no fucking idea what is going on in the SMO, except, except, Russia won! How do you know they won, they are changing their Nuclear Doctrine….that’s a win, right guys? Beat the west, beat NATO and said if you cross the next twenty red lines, we’ll paint more……
Cheers M
…..btw, anyone got some paint, the colour on me plastic coat is fading from all the CO2 in the bar….

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 2 2024 12:59 utc | 284

Ah, I see trolls have taken up residence in many heads ….give fucking over already, so everyone has no fucking idea what is going on in the SMO, except, except, Russia won! How do you know they won, they are changing their Nuclear Doctrine….that’s a win, right guys? Beat the west, beat NATO and said if you cross the next twenty red lines, we’ll paint more……
Cheers M
…..btw, anyone got some paint, the colour on me plastic coat is fading from all the CO2 in the bar….

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 2 2024 12:59 utc | 285

https://archive.is/yVLZt
WALL St JOURNAL:

Ukraine Strikes Moscow Oil Refinery in Massive Drone Barrage
Russia’s Defense Ministry said more than 150 drones were fired against targets across the country on Sunday

Perhaps this is old news since the article is dated yesterday. In any case, it seems that for the RF bombardment by drone is not grounds for declaration of war.
Palestine is fairly easy to understand, even if it is truly horrible. Ukraine makes little sense to me any more though b’s clarifying articles always help.

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 2 2024 13:00 utc | 286

Roger | Sep 2 2024 12:24 utc | 273
Apparently there is to be a BRICS grains exchange as well where I think all grains will be traded and completely out of the control of the west.
So many in the west just believe what is in the MSM and do not realize it wont be long before the west is just a backwater in global affairs.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 2 2024 13:02 utc | 287

A fire drone that drops a flaming stream of some sort of fuel/napalm along a treeline for several hundred meters.
https://x.com/GeromanAT/status/1830589494111678478

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 2 2024 13:11 utc | 288

Interesting analysis of areal extent taken. From “Z-committee” (whatever that is) via Geroman.
https://x.com/GeromanAT/status/1830552367713960177
Changes on the map, excluding Kursk region, for August:
♦️ Kupyanskoe = 29.2 km
♦️ Svatovskoye = 8.67 km (departed from 2.05 km)
♦️ Limanskoe = 11.76 km (departed from 6.08 km)
♦️ Seversky ledge = 2.41 km
♦️ Konstantinovskoye = 9.56 km
♦️ Toretskoe = 50.57 km
♦️ Pokrovskoe = 239.02 km
♦️ Kurakhovskoye = 62.86 km (departed from 0.62 km)
♦️ Vremyevskoe = 0.95 km
♦️ Orekhovskoye = 9.67 km
♦️ Kharkovskoe = 3.66 km (departed from 2.92 km)
Total:
Occupied – 428.33 km
Moved – 11.67 km
——-
Net: 416.66
Given, Ukraine overall is 603,000 kmsq (pre-war, including Crimea, etc.), there’s an easy calculation of ~60 kmsq being .01% of the country. So, at ~420, we are looking at ~.07% territory taken. Quite slow, overall (implies less than a % per year, less than 10% per decade). But yes, absolutely accelerating versus previous months, when .03% was the most (and didn’t even happen every month).
Note this is from a different source than War Mapper (what I usually post, and will when it comes out in a few days). It may be less conservative than War Mapper. No worries, since War Mapper is conservative for each side. And also even if he’s slower to concede an advance, it just helps the next month (if it really happened).
And of course, this is not netting out Russian territory lost (~800-1200 kmsq) in Kursk, which would make it a negative month.
I would think that SEP is lining up to be another big month for the RFA. The collapse of the Nevelske pocket alone will give them about 100 kmsq. (On top of other advances, through villages and the like.)
Of course, UKR also has a decent chance on picking up an extra 800 kmsq in Kursk in SEP (in the “pontoon bridge” area). So, even if the main lines have stabilized there, they have a large pocket, they are threatening to take.

Posted by: Anonymous | Sep 2 2024 13:18 utc | 289

Posted by: Poslan1 | Sep 2 2024 12:41 utc | 277
My guess is that Ed4 is probably saying the cost in Russian soldiers might be a major factor in determining when to stop. It would be a Pyrrhic victory to lose too many men in the prime of their lives.
Posted by: KMRIA | Sep 2 2024 12:15 utc | 270
And my quess he is just dooming as the fucking troll he is.
Posted by: Poslan1 | Sep 2 2024 12:41 utc | 277
I tend to the KMRIA view here, but will reserve judgement on Ed4 being a full on “doomer troll”. If so, then he seems a good deal more sane than the majority of maggot dropping trolls who regularly infect this site-usually when things are going badly for Ukraine.
I am possibly being charitable or very naïve here, but will not discount Ed4 completely just yet.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Sep 2 2024 13:21 utc | 290

My guess is that Ed4 is probably saying the cost in Russian soldiers might be a major factor in determining when to stop. It would be a Pyrrhic victory to lose too many men in the prime of their lives.
Posted by: KMRIA | Sep 2 2024 12:15 utc | 270
And my quess he is just dooming as the fucking troll he is.
But considering your thoughts as a true worry, I want to correct your wording. It might have been a Pyrrhic victory should Russia follow any fucked-up advice by trolls like Ed4, but fortunately she does not. So, it would not be a cheap victory, but I am sure Russia will easily manage.
Posted by: Poslan1 | Sep 2 2024 12:41 utc | 277
I wasn’t suggesting Russia stop before completing her stated goals of denazification and demilitarization, that must be done. That said, there are some on these threads who jabber on nonsensically about taking Poland, the Baltics, blah, blah, blah. I think Mearsheimer is correct in that he thinks Russia will take everything east of the Dnipro and all of the Black Sea coast, leaving a Ukrainian rump state that will be largely dependent on Russia.

Posted by: KMRIA | Sep 2 2024 13:23 utc | 291

1. “the alarming prospect of long-range missile strikes deep within Russian”. As opposed to a Kinzal shoved up Murdoch’s Wall Street Journals butt. D.C., London or Brussels smugly believing only the Ukrainians will invest blood.
2. Underlying too many comments is this mythical American/European money-printing magic. In 1783 no one on the planet accepted U.S. promises to pay, only vast industrial capacity underpinning military might, gave the U.S. dollar any power whatsoever.
3. Money-printing is the bastard child of Money-Changing. A skimming game of “if I give you this fresh, new $100 bill, how about you giving me your labor, assets, resources?” Rapidly coming to an end, internationally, and domestically as inflation has killed “price discovery”
Russia is winning the Global game. Ukraine is an aggravation, a local game, being played via local constraints, all the BS Narratives, changed daily, often hourly, by the midgets in D.C.notwithstanding.

Posted by: kupkee | Sep 2 2024 13:24 utc | 292

Barrel Brown@223….
no need to defend anymore, Russia changing its nuclear strike doctrine is a two way, anything you can do, I can do better, street.
The Donbass devoid of Ukie defences and troops, flooded by Russian bodies, is a prime juicy target for one up Manship. No need to nuke Russia proper, just the Donbass, win win for Ukie on the right windy day.
A contrarian view, but I’m a leprechaun and the Brits are involved, a Gnome might have a different view, but I know colonial history, having lived it, I know what they are capable of starting, and they always have uncle Sam hiding in the closet ready to save their ass.

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 2 2024 13:25 utc | 293

Posted by: Multipolar Panda | Sep 1 2024 20:54 utc | 140
………………..
The information on the construction on the KNPP you linked to is important in itself and also has a direct bearing on the post-war situation in remnant Ukraine.
https://anti-spiegel.ru/2024/der-vollkommen-andere-krieg/
“The man said that the situation at the nuclear power plant is more serious than even the Russian media reports. According to him, the nuclear power plant is attacked by drones several times a day, which is far more dangerous at the Kursk nuclear power plant than at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. The reason is that the Kursk nuclear power plant is a Chernobyl-type nuclear power plant, which means that there is no protective concrete shell around the reactor. The Kursk nuclear power plant is therefore much more at risk from attacks than the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.”>
The ZNPP was protected by a thick concrete roof, safe against drones and probably HIMARS. The vulnerability there lay in the fuel rod storage. The fuel rods were stored in the open air and could be hit. The Russians rigged up a cover for them that would have prevented drone strikes on the fuel rods but it all sounded somewhat makeshift and risky.
The position with the KNPP is quite different and much riskier. The roof is flimsier and is therefore vulnerable to drone and artillery strikes. The IAEA is too beholden to the Western powers to be of much use and even if it were not there’s not much it can do in practical terms to stop the strikes on this NPP.
It looks as if the Kursk offensive had as one of its objectives the seizing the of the KNPP. That proving difficult these attacks are being mounted instead. This is the hidden side of the Ukrainian war and I don’t believe Western complicity in these attacks will ever be acknowledged.
Or not by us. The Russians, however, know full well that the Kursk offensive and all that goes with it was planned and facilitated by the West. It’s for that reason that I don’t believe the Russians will stop at the Dnieper. They are forced, in whatever manner they can, to neutralise the entirety of remnant Ukraine. Else they will be exposed indefinitely to the West using the Ukrainians to mount such “look no hands” attacks as these.
…………………….
Your link quoted and acknowledged on Colonel Lang’s old site. Many thanks for the information.

Posted by: English Outsider | Sep 2 2024 13:29 utc | 294

Re: Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 1 2024 17:44 utc | 89

Maps. I do look at them and have studied geography since childhood. The element in my ‘surround Pokrovsk’ which you did not rebut is the fact that geography means very little when a military force is not only heavily outnumbered, with no prospect of reinforcements AND is outgunned, out bombarded with artillery, rocketry and missiles; has a disintegrating logistics trail and is itself rapidly falling apart at the seams, how is it possible that they can stem the Red Tide from surrounding Pokrovsk?

Fevered dreams of yours never end do they.
Russia took Bakhmut in May 2023.
Next door is Chasov Yar. Right next door.
15 months later Russia has not even taken Chasov Yar.
A full 15 months later!!
There is simply no real evidence that Ukraine’s army is itself rapidly falling apart at the seams, !
No – It isn’t.
We are in September – if there was a ” rapid disintegration “(/I> underway right now as you claim the Russians would be in Kyiv by Halloween.
They won’t be. There is nothing RAPID going on as you claim.

Posted by: Julian | Sep 2 2024 13:35 utc | 295

…there are some on these threads who jabber on nonsensically about taking Poland, the Baltics, blah, blah, blah.
Posted by: KMRIA | Sep 2 2024 13:23 utc | 290

…and there are some who claim that the West will never stop provocing Russia, so any current results of the SMO would prove to be temporary.
I trust Putin to make right decisions and trust the Russian MoD to find the best way to implement them without unnecessary losses of lives and hardware.

Posted by: Poslan1 | Sep 2 2024 13:37 utc | 296

“I think Mearsheimer is correct in that he thinks Russia will take everything east of the Dnipro and all of the Black Sea coast, leaving a Ukrainian rump state that will be largely dependent on Russia.”
KMRIA | Sep 2 2024 13:23 utc | 290
I certainly hope they do, although I’d love a land bridge to Hungary as well. Probably hoping for too much there.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Sep 2 2024 13:39 utc | 297

the independent English famer?
Posted by: canuck | Sep 2 2024 12:57 utc | 282

This Malapropism couldn’t be more on the nose.

Posted by: too scents | Sep 2 2024 13:46 utc | 298

They won’t be. There is nothing RAPID going on as you claim.
Posted by: Julian | Sep 2 2024 13:35 utc | 294
Well, the Russians will certainly be in kiev (not sure they really want to be in kiev, mind you) before the kiev regime reaches Crimea lol

Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 2 2024 13:47 utc | 299

Stalin was succeeded by the traitor Khrushchev who had to dismantle Stalin’s reputation to give legitimacy to his illegitimate coup government.
Posted by: Roger | Sep 2 2024 12:44 utc | 278
Maybe, Chinese mainstream social scientists have similar view of history.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202112/1243430.shtml
Li Shenming, former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times that “there are many different explanations from around the world about why the Soviet Union collapsed, but the one which holds that ‘Stalinism,’ or ‘the socialist model of the Soviet Union,’ is the root cause continues to dominate.”
“But in China, we have reached common ground after much research and many discussions that Stalinism is not the root cause, and the real reason is that, from Nikita Khrushchev to Mikhail Gorbachev, the leadership of the Soviet Union gradually deviated from and eventually betrayed Marxism, socialism and the fundamental interests of the overwhelming majority of the people,” Li noted.
To blame Stalin, or the socialist model built by Lenin and Stalin, for the collapse of the Soviet Union is irresponsible, Li said. “Although the model was not perfect and needed reforming, the Soviet Union achieved great goals such as industrialization, victory in World War II and a successful post-war reconstruction under this model,” Li said.
The starting point of the Soviet Union’s collapse was the reform initiated by Khrushchev, because it failed to address the problems. Instead, it gradually denied the basic political and economic system of the Soviet Union’s socialism, and when it came to the Gorbachev era, the leadership of the country fully betrayed Marxism and chose a path with no turning back, experts said.
The Soviet Union’s leaders were not just betraying their original aspiration, but also forgot that serving the people is their core mission, rather than becoming enmeshed in power struggles with other countries, bullying and threatening its comrades within the socialist bloc including China, pursuing military expansion and even invading other countries like Afghanistan, said Chinese analysts.
“The Soviet Union could send satellites to space and expand its geopolitical influence sphere, but it could not fix its problems with the shortages of food, textile and daily necessities, which further fueled social conflicts,” Wang Xianju, deputy director and research fellow at the Renmin University of China – Russia St. Petersburg State University Russian Research Center, told the Global Times.

Posted by: Nokaz | Sep 2 2024 13:54 utc | 300