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September 1, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-209

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

It seems that the Ukrainian army is now betting on holding Pokrovsk, a rail and road hub which happens to also hold the only coal mine usable for coke production. Without the Ukrainian coke the already damaged Ukrainian metallurgic industry will be in a steep decline.

The 72nd brigade was ordered from Ugledar in the south, where it had been in defensive positions over the last two years, towards the Pokrovsk salient. Following that move the Russian army launched an all out attack on Ugledar.

The Ukrainian units involved in the Kursk invasion are reportedly also getting called back to move towards Pokrovsk. But they have by now received a serious beating and have lost a lot of their armored vehicles and fighting capabilities.

Troops on the move are targets. Lets see how many are left when they arrive.

…

Posted by b on September 1, 2024 at 13:03 UTC | Permalink
Comments

I’m sure a bullet would go right through an M113, and yes at a high enough temperature it burns! I know it’s light but so is balsa wood, maybe some can explain the logic of aluminum armor?
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2024 17:00 utc | 70
Price support for Alcoa. Half the tactics of the Vietnam War were based on which industries needed a government market to avoid a crisis of over-production. Jet fuel, portland cement, aluminum, to name but a few.

Posted by: Honzo | Sep 1 2024 18:10 utc | 101

Posted by: Exile | Sep 1 2024 18:09 utc | 99
Re: German provincial elections
3 parties are anti-war; the AFD. BSW, and Die Linke
The anti-war parties tally
52% Saxony
59% Thurigen
Remember that in Germany, according to Minister Baerbock “we don’t care what the people think, we will always fight Russia and support Ukraine”.
It’s because they are defending democracy, you see.
That’s why what the people think doesn’t matter.

Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Sep 1 2024 18:15 utc | 102

According to this battalion commander, Ukraine has more than enough men left to fight so there’s no need to mobilize teenagers or women :
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/121639

Commander Veres:
– What, are we out of men? Maybe we should mobilize 12 and 15-year-olds?We are not some African country where they run around with machine guns. Mandatory mobilization of women is barbarity. If they want to, let them go; if they don’t, they don’t. We still have a country, there are still men left, why should women go?

This war isn’t winding down any time soon.

Posted by: bored | Sep 1 2024 18:17 utc | 103

“BTW – his water jet tolerances are likely 1000th of an inch ( not 100th 🤣)”
Posted by: Exile | Sep 1 2024 18:02 utc | 95
I know just enough of my buddy’s business ‘to be dangerous’ as you so diplomatically revealed.

Posted by: canuck | Sep 1 2024 18:18 utc | 104

@60 Mario.
Latest reports have a ukrainian reinforcements in selidovo including local counterattack. Syrsky was recently in povrosk as well which is a tell that ukraine is putting significant forces there. Where ever the president or head of army goes is where they’re centering.
Kursk has gone silent from ukraines side as well after the last few repeated head on attacks on same points.
So it’s my estimation they’ve traded some space for time and are ready with newly mobilized younger soldiers to fight to the death somewhere.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 1 2024 18:20 utc | 105

“Dima has theorized that the next step for the Russians is going to be a quick dash for the Dneiper. I don’t think so.”
That’s the best idea. Build up forces to the south of Pokrovsk as is expected to take that city. Then dash southwest to the Dnieper just two hours away with massive air support and maybe helo forces to seize a big bridge. This would trap some 50,000 Uke soldiers to the south on the wrong side of the river, and there will likely be little resistance on the other side of the river causing panic in Kiev.
Posted by: Carlton Meyer | Sep 1 2024 17:32 utc | 85
I think it’s a question of what the Ukes really try to defend. Don’t forget that the Russians are already ‘on the Dneiper.’ As the Ukes strip forces from the Zaparohzia area to defend things further east and west, a sudden drive northward along the east bank of the Dnieper might become the best move. As I indicated earlier, it’s long past time for the Ukes to withdraw to the Dnieper line, a move that would shorten the front they have to defend and reduce their logistical problems considerably. It seems that they won’t do that on purpose, but I think a Russian offensive north along the Dnieper would cause a westward stampede of all the Uke forces in the SE of the country.

Posted by: Honzo | Sep 1 2024 18:22 utc | 106

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 1 2024 16:50 utc | 65
At 20% of book value and minimal losses… I’m tempted

Posted by: Newbie | Sep 1 2024 18:25 utc | 107

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2024 17:15 utc | 77
Absolutely, hence my ‘It doesn’t add up’ is normally the point you challenge your preconceptions, unless your enemy is behaving irrationally, it obviously adds up for the enemy’. This is your starting point, you then look at possible assumptions Ukraine made, and inevitably this leads to their ISR picture and how accurate it was.
One possible scenario is the Russians waged a successful deception operation to convince the Ukrainians that the Russian combat strength in Kursk and the Donbas was far less than in reality. This would instantly dislocate the operational intent and ‘trap’ the Ukrainians into failing on both fronts.
I doubt that the Ukrainian plan was to sit in a relatively static pocket for 3+ weeks, so something went badly wrong, probably based on faulty assumptions.

Posted by: Milites | Sep 1 2024 18:26 utc | 108

Call it what you want, but the real issue here is Putin’s chronic case of no-balls syndrome.
Posted by: Mr.A | Sep 1 2024 16:46 utc | 63
———————————————————————–
Since you don’t believe that Joe “Genocide” Biden is responsible for what his administration does on the international world stage, please fill in the blanks and then you can critique them all.
Everyone here at MoA knows that the “elected” President of all “liberal democracies” are just figure heads for corporate / financial ruling class elites; but that would be a pretty extensive list to plow through in a very small (and unimportant) comment. I really don’t think that b has the data space to allow such stupidity.
Let’s just say that the Ruling classes in the US, NATO, and their poodles around the globe, choose war over negotiations and diplomacy.
Why? Because the ruling classes, and their poodles, want the wealth and resources in both Russia and Ukraine.
Why? Because they are selfish, evil, rotten excuses for human beings, but they control much of the world’s wealth and they want more.
The purpose for the proxy war against Russia (according to the political representatives for the ruling classes in the US) was/is to wear down Russia’s military capabilities using Ukraine as a proxy military force, and simultaneously depopulate Ukraine before the US and NATO forces invade Russia and Ukraine in the interest of the ruling classes, and their poodles.
You may be too stupid to understand this but thank God that Putin is not.

Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 18:35 utc | 109

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 1 2024 17:20 utc | 79
Missile saturation?
150 drones in 15 Russian regions.
I would understand 150 drones on the region of Moscow.
Even Iran in is mild attack used over 300 drones/missiles on Israel.

Posted by: Mario | Sep 1 2024 18:37 utc | 110

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 1 2024 14:42 utc | 26
If you read the right propaganda there is a big fire in Moscow refinery, others may read that a fire of 40m2 has been already extinguished.
<= this map is quite telling https://s5.cdnstatic.space/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/1sep2024_Russia_map.jpg
Posted by: Mr.A | Sep 1 2024 16:46 utc | 63
the real issue here is Putin’s chronic case of no-balls syndrome.
<=Is it really, or is it, that Russia's defenses, weak as they are, are keeping war damage to Russia itself, far below that which would befall Russia, should a full scale all out, in the open, war with NATO, Europe, or and the USA happen.. What I see, is that Russia's ability to defend itself from external air attacks is improving.. .. each improvement filters to Russian partners (Iran, Syria, and Yemen, African, Palestine, Lebanon and so on).. Eventually, the Eastern pole is likely to have adequate means to defend itself, also the attack weapons, and the distances of their reach are improving..and the experienced under fire armies are growing in size which suggest the sides are more evenly matched.. multi polarism so to speak.. the great distance for attack weapons to travel between Europe and Russia and between Russia and USA and Canada governed America are shortening as a result of progress in conventional weapon technologies and in space placed weapons.. I believe the two poles are heading toward a cold war standoff.. Also a game changer is coming into view, Turkey may resolve its differences with Syria, back out of the UN, and becomes a BRICS member. Such a pivot to the East by Turkey would really balance the equation, I think. What is missing is a reliable middle man able to negotiate a resolution.. problem is creditability no one in the west has sufficient authority to negotiate anything that requires agreement past the next election.

Posted by: snake | Sep 1 2024 18:37 utc | 111

Andrew Sarchus @ 96

The west’s Russophobic jihad in Ukraine has cost it its ENTIRE CAR INDUSTRY.

I’m sure once finalized its fascist corporate-state merger directed into a full blown war economy will more than make up for it. E-car profits are for weenies, the real money is in tanks. No nasty competition either, NATO won’t be buying better cheaper Chinese or Russian tanks.

Electric Viking

That’s a very good YT channel to follow for any MoA Chinaologists, it’s about e-cars but e-cars is all about China. The host is Aussie I think, and he approaches China with respect. The other good China YT is, Inside China Business, and also from the point of respect.

With a waiting list of weeks for every car BYD make, how is this “over-production”??

Good point. I nominate you for EU chief economist, if there is one, seems there isn’t. BTW the hot car from Xiaomi, their first attempt and supposedly brilliant, has a months long waiting list, as do the latest cars from Geely, Chery, XPeng, all flying of the shelves like hot cakes. I think the E-Viking had a show where GM engineers and accountants took apart the $16,000 Xiaomi, threw up their hands and surrendered.

with 55% of new car sales in China now all-electric.

And, 30% on the road already are. Living in the west? Step outside and look around and you can look back in time, and you don’t need an astrophysicist to explain it. I think that’s a riff on Bob Dylan.
Chinese e-cars are doing well in Russia too. Now imagine WW3 where oil tankers headed to western ports start getting sunk, Chinese still drive to work, EU not so much. The west in its neoliberal death spasms is only making China stronger, which makes Russia stronger.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2024 18:51 utc | 112

Honzo @ 100

Price support for Alcoa.

Holy shit! I’m a cynical guy but I wasn’t ready for that, no wonder I couldn’t figure it out.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2024 18:54 utc | 113

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 1 2024 16:16 utc | 54
#########
The NAFO bros on MoA don’t address the fact that many of the Donbass residents await liberation by the Russian Armed Forces. Makes sense after the Ukrainian government had been conducting a genocidal pogrom against Russian speakers in the East since 2014. A Russian in Donbass would have to be suicidal to want to continue to be ruled by Kiev.
Not only are Russians in the correct moral position with this SMO, they also don’t practice Nazism, which should be a big deal to so-called Western pro-democracy activists online. And yet, Sean the Leprechaun, Napoleon, Julian, ed4, etc all are big on support for genocidal fascism.
Jeremy, do you think it is the relative anonymity of posting online, or that these people would espouse the same sentiments in public among strangers because they are true believers in the philosophies of Adolf Hitler?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 1 2024 19:02 utc | 114

^@111
Jeeze, did I really write Chinaologist? Sinologist. Apologies.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2024 19:02 utc | 115

@ 48 Canuck
I had a conversation with a carpentry shop owner in the US once. He was an old timer and had a tradional and successful shop, but was eventually forced to compete on price with newer outfits, and ended up buying CNC to meet that. He had bought a very expensive machine from Italy and was not pleased, not because it did not work as supposed to, but because the smallest repair meant weeks of delay and much extra cost.
These (western) links have some on steel, but for coal I read 90% is in Donets and that yearly production for Ukraine/404 or whatever has gone from @ 65 tonne mn @ 2012 to @ 25 tonne mn 2023 . By 2015 it had halved. Pokrovsk is at around 5 tonne mn at the moment.
“Continued supplies from Russia create imbalances in the European market and damage local producers” …. I suppose they mean steel producers only and not the rest, i.e. competition is damaging for steel producer profits. The link runs through the sanctions, and I think pig iron is restricted quantity with full sanctions for 2026. Doesn’t seem to discriminate on where produced in Russia.
https://gmk.center/en/posts/european-sanctions-against-steel-exports-from-russia-status-and-prospects/
This link just has a whole set of figure on steel trade, but only for last few years.
https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/how-ukraines-war-torn-steel-industry-has-transformed/
Market details aren’t too much my area but the above gives something of an idea of what is going on.

Posted by: Ornot | Sep 1 2024 19:04 utc | 116

Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 18:35 utc | 108
########
Mr. A cannot be critical of the West because he has no idea who is actually in charge and the lead decision maker. He attacks Putin because Putin leads from the front, and has the courage of his convictions. We could guess that any one of 30 different officials in the US has been responsible for Ukraine since the Maidan.
Putin is a whipping boy for online morons because they don’t understand the structure of the Russian government or what Putin has accomplished domestically since 1999.
It should be embarrassing how much Russia has progressed relative to every other country in the West, many of whom have the “benefits” of money printing and colonial looting of other nations.
The only domains the West has beaten the RoW at are degeneracy and debt. Sin.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 1 2024 19:08 utc | 117

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 1 2024 18:20 utc | 104
As usual I will wait.
A week or two are what a pr/fake on the western Msm survive.
Infact they are no more pumping the kursk offensive.

Posted by: Mario | Sep 1 2024 19:10 utc | 118

Perhaps Zelensky seeks to blackmail Biden with a real Afghanistan-style collapse in the Donbass taking the headlines and hurting Harris.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Sep 1 2024 13:56 utc | 18
Biden despite or maybe moreso because of his dementia would quiet happily take the legs from under Harris.
Wrong Times for blackmail.

Posted by: jpc | Sep 1 2024 19:22 utc | 119

Why should this make any sense? You attack the mostly empty Kursk region with mechanized infantry and no air cover. A month later you then give up and move whats left of you mechanized infantry back to your heavily industrialized key transportation corridor under assault by your enemy with no air cover.
I would have like to been at that NATO meeting to hear what was said to these idiots. We may never know. The allies did not want Hitler dead because he was an idiot moving armies. Now I know why Zelinsky is still alive.
As the clown keeps moving NATO keeps asking for more.

Posted by: circumspect | Sep 1 2024 19:24 utc | 120

Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 18:35 utc | 108
Support for my comments @ # 108.
—————————————————
“Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin insisted Monday that Russia was failing in its Ukraine incursion, with Austin explicitly saying that the US wants to see Russia’s military capabilities weakened.”
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/25/politics/blinken-austin-kyiv-ukraine-zelensky-meeting/index.html
——————————————————–
In 2024, the United States and Ukraine are to sign an agreement on critical minerals, specifically lithium, according to Republican Senator Lindsey Graham.
“I hope in 2024 an invitation will be issued to Ukraine to join NATO over the arc of time under certain conditions. In 2024, I hope we will secure a strategic agreement between the United States and Ukraine regarding critical minerals,” Graham said.
[Graham] noted that Ukraine has about a trillion dollars’ worth of minerals needed for the 21st century.
“If you believe in electric vehicles, you need batteries. Well, Ukraine is blessed with a lot of lithium. So, let’s have an agreement between the United States, Western allies, and Ukraine to mine that lithium, creating processing centers in Ukraine, which will create jobs for the Ukrainian people and have a strategic relationship between the United States and Ukraine,” added Graham.
According to him, such minerals “help the West, they don’t fall in Putin’s hands.”
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/us-and-ukraine-should-conclude-agreement-on-critical-minerals-this-year-senator-graham/ar-AA1oGgSa

Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 19:25 utc | 121

Posted by: Exile | Sep 1 2024 18:09 utc | 99
Thanks!

Posted by: Naive | Sep 1 2024 19:27 utc | 122

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 1 2024 19:08 utc | 116
————————————————————————
Thank you, LoveDonbass, for the reply. I do so much agree with you.

Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 19:30 utc | 123

Jeremy, do you think it is the relative anonymity of posting online, or that these people would espouse the same sentiments in public among strangers because they are true believers in the philosophies of Adolf Hitler?

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 1 2024 19:02 utc | 113
Personally I don’t believe that most of the trolls we get here are “true believers”, I doubt they would last 30 seconds in a truly toxic cesspit like 4chan.
I think it’s more a case of being so steeped in Western propaganda, starting with the education system, that any questioning (such as takes place in MoA) sets up such a level of cognitive dissonance that they have to shout loudly in order to reinforce their convictions. Particularly regarding the education system, even more particularly looking at history education, the diminution of the contribution of the Red Army and the people of the Soviet Union to the defeat of Axis forces in 1945 is very noticeable (and something Andrei Martyanov regularly comments on). Even Col. MacGregor falls into this trap.
The one that does surprise me is “Shaun The Plastic Irish Garden Gnome”, given the vicious colonial history inflicted by British elites on the Irish people.
I could type a lot more, but a long post of cod psychoanalysis would take things too far off-topic.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 1 2024 19:34 utc | 124

This is how mutiny begins. The old man can afford to take risks, he’s going to die soon anyway and has little to lose. The crafty politicians are waiting silently while sharpening knives. All they need is a brigade commander to provide muscle and pretty soon it’s a mad dash of angry troops heading for the Dnieper and shooting any generals who get in their way.
Dnieper then becomes the natural line of defense and Zelensky will no longer be there to screw things up but rather command goes to the most fanatic, battle hardened, competent brigade commander around, based on vote of the committed troops. Russia will not have am easy time crossing the Dnieper unless USA and EU completely abandon Ukraine, which is unlikely, because those fanatics can threaten terrorism against USA and EU. And unlike Zelensky, they are ready to die and will not be deterred by CIA/MI6 threats. Rather, CIA/MI6 are who will be pissing in fear.
Then war goes on for several more years of attrition.
Posted by: anonposter | Sep 1 2024 17:50 utc | 92
—————
No, at that point Ukraine turns into Slavic Somalia.
You need some sort state apparatus to sustain a conventional war-effort. The chances of the Ukrainian polity surviving such a coup, are not high.
That’s the only reason Zelensky remains in post, despite his many shortcomings.
If he goes down. Particularly in such a manner, all the rats abandon ship or start eating eachother.

Posted by: Urban Fox | Sep 1 2024 19:45 utc | 125

I doubt that the Ukrainian plan was to sit in a relatively static pocket for 3+ weeks, so something went badly wrong, probably based on faulty assumptions.
Posted by: Milites | Sep 1 2024 18:26 utc | 107
I had foreseen something, then I thought I was wrong, now that I think about it it was obvious what you say; the essence is only one: because of the falling leaves the only Ukrainians present in Kursk will be in the graves or in the forests hunted by Russian special forces. Simulating an absolute weakness with the loss of 1000 recruits and 2000 civilians, is an absolutely cynical thing, but the most successful that I know, a good trap needs an excellent bait, the result is sensational, like the advance in Donbass!
automatic translation

Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Sep 1 2024 19:54 utc | 126

No, at that point Ukraine turns into Slavic Somalia.

Posted by: Urban Fox | Sep 1 2024 19:45 utc | 124
That’s something I’ve been pondering as well, will we see Ukraine dissolve into some kind of oblast-based or ethnic based “warlordism”?
Certainly possible, though I think it would be an unstable, short-term state of affairs, with some oblasts voluntarily throwing their lot in with Russia. Ethnic-based might be more difficult to resolve. The key difference with Somalia though is the presence of a huge, modern, well-equipped and now highly-experienced army right next door.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 1 2024 19:59 utc | 127

Russian spy whale found dead off the Norway coast. Shock horror….
Bbc radio 4 news 8 pm.

Posted by: Mark2 | Sep 1 2024 20:06 utc | 128

I think it’s more a case of being so steeped in Western propaganda, starting with the education system, that any questioning (such as takes place in MoA) sets up such a level of cognitive dissonance that they have to shout loudly in order to reinforce their convictions. Particularly regarding the education system, even more particularly looking at history education, the diminution of the contribution of the Red Army and the people of the Soviet Union to the defeat of Axis forces in 1945 is very noticeable (and something Andrei Martyanov regularly comments on). Even Col. MacGregor falls into this trap.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 1 2024 19:34 utc | 123
————————————————————————————–
As you probably already know, cultural hegemony, as explained by the Marxist intellectual Antonio Gramsci (1891–1937), “…is [about] the dominance of a culturally diverse society by the ruling class who shape the culture of that society—the beliefs and explanations, perceptions, values, and mores—so that the worldview of the ruling class becomes the accepted cultural norm.[As the universal dominant ideology, the ruling-class worldview misrepresents the social, political, and economic status quo as natural, inevitable, and perpetual social conditions that benefit every social class, rather than as artificial social constructs that benefit only the ruling class.”
As I am too lazy to dig deeper into Gramsci’s philosophy cultural hegemony as I have done in the past here at MoA, I took the liberty of copying and pasting this from Wikipedia: They didn’t do a bad job either.

Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 20:09 utc | 129

Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Sep 1 2024 19:54 utc | 125
I forgot another effect: the movement of the Ukrainian brigades from Kursk to Donbass, a pilgrimage that will cause no small amount of trouble with incredible losses of materials.

Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Sep 1 2024 20:10 utc | 130

Reuters has a posting up with the title
Russia says it will change nuclear doctrine because of Western role in Ukraine
the quote

Moscow accuses the West of using Ukraine as a proxy to wage war against it, with the aim of inflicting a “strategic defeat” on Russia and breaking it apart.
The United States and its allies deny that, saying they are helping Ukraine defend itself against a colonial-style war of aggression by Russia.

There are lies, dammed lies and Reuters lies….helping Ukraine defend itself against a colonial-style war of aggression by Russia…..how BIG LIE can you get?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 1 2024 20:12 utc | 131

Posted by: Down South | Sep 1 2024 17:22 utc | 82
Excellent remarks from Roman Svitan, spoken on Ukrainian television.
The death camp comparison was easily made during, and since, the infamous “counteroffensive”, where Ukrainian forces advanced wave after wave across open ground under Russian bombardment.

Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 1 2024 20:18 utc | 132

If Ukraine sending 158 drones in one night is the US trying to obtain another data point about Russian air defenses.
Then the Kursk offensive is sacrificing soldiers to obtain the attrition rate of NATO soldiers on Russian soil.

Posted by: Passerby | Sep 1 2024 20:18 utc | 133

Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 20:09 utc | 128
Cultural hegemony: That is what I was rummaging around in the cobwebbed attic of my brain to try and find!
Thank you for the prompt, it’s got some long-disused neurons firing again…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 1 2024 20:19 utc | 134

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 1 2024 20:12 utc | 130
Reuters has been lying for Great Britain since 1851 – that’s a tradition.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Sep 1 2024 20:38 utc | 135

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 1 2024 19:34 utc | 123
Your comment about unawareness of the role of the Red Army is very right, its disappearance is almost Orwellian.
In this I can speak for myself and my lack of awareness is embarrassing but also indicates how in Australia, information was non-existent in the 60s and I assume much longer.
I loved history and came very close to being top of the state in school final exams. Now my class in modern history covered the period from the french revolution through to the start of WWII. So very little at all about the course of the war – probably I was not interested in the details anyway. I knew nothing at all about the loss of 25 million people in Russia. My teachers were progressive and very anti-war anti NAZI and probably in some cases fairly anti USA too (Vietnam war era).
What is even more bizarre is that I came from a solidly pro Russian family, so it was not home based pressure. It was as if the subject did not exist. It is conceivable that the USSR itself did not talk too much about the deaths and sacrifice, at least not to the western world, perhaps because of pride. Whatever the reason it has left huge gaping hole. It is not a recent phenomenon

Posted by: watcher | Sep 1 2024 20:39 utc | 136

Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Sep 1 2024 20:10 utc | 129
I think it’s far worse, their operational plan was the trap, constructed from faulty assumptions about the Russian reaction, resistance and response times, which were all off. I’m sure the ever-cautious but miserly Russians sprinkled in some SF units, just in case, but to not take your initial objectives, after crossing the border, speaks of a serious failure somewhere (or a successful, if highly cynical, deception operation).
The controlled collapse of the pocket, with the retreat route under near-constant interdiction, will stress the Ukrainian command to near-breaking point, but what happens if the Russians follow on their heels? What happens if a divisional attack exploits the passage of lines operation being attempted, to attack toward Sumy, at the same time the shrinking perimeter is fixed by local attacks. As you are well aware, NATO used to practice these manoeuvres during every exercise, be it launching multi-brigade counter-attacks, or the retreat of forward screening units. How many times has Ukraine? What happens if the Russians pull a Brigade 150 only this time with the correct vehicles, not vis-mods, to seize key objectives in the Ukrainian rear or drop off blocking units?

Posted by: Milites | Sep 1 2024 20:44 utc | 137

From Twatter:

The turbine hall of the Eskhar Thermal Power Plant 2 in Eskhar, Kharkov region has been destroyed.
This vital thermal power plant, was never hit despite its proximity to the border.
It appears that the decision to finally hit Kharkov Thermal Power Plant 2 was influenced by the Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian thermal power plants this morning.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Sep 1 2024 20:44 utc | 138

Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure
https://twitter.com/InsiderGeo/status/1830127294448287879
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1830106723954119113
Russia has updated its rhetoric
>… “Any peace talks with the terrorist regime in Kiev are out of the question, regardless of the initiator.” ~ Zakharova
https://x.com/mfa_russia/status/1829912033514369529
This German Ukrainian has something to say about Ugledah
>…Russia is a terrorist state and the cancer of the world.
https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1830221183998189714

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 1 2024 20:45 utc | 139

Elections in Saxony/Germany:
SPD (Party of Chancellor Olaf Scholz): 10%
Green Party (Party of Annalena Baerbock): 7%
Elections in Thuringia/Germany:
SPD: 6%
Green Party: 3%

Posted by: Apollyon | Sep 1 2024 20:45 utc | 140

A very interesting report of a German in Russia who went to Kursk and beyond last week:
https://anti-spiegel.ru/2024/der-vollkommen-andere-krieg/
Contains a lot of info you won’t find anywhere else, from current situation, to brutal Polish mercenaries, to the NPP. It’s in German so you’ll have to translate.

Posted by: Multipolar Panda | Sep 1 2024 20:54 utc | 141

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 1 2024 13:43 utc | 13
You’re one goddamn liar. Pretty much all Russian TG channels mentioned the gas processing plants/infrastructure being hit in the attack last night, Solovyov as well. Details are posted non-stop and Russians are getting enough info online and on the TV about the true damages.

Posted by: Boo | Sep 1 2024 20:54 utc | 142

My guess is that the Kiev regime already has long range missiles. They’ve got them from the west and NATO and painted them, disguised them as home-made.
And when these long range missiles are used on Russia, it allows the US (who have claimed they’ve not given permission to Kiev to launch long range missiles donated by them) to say it has nothing to do with them.
Have no doubts barflies…Kiev will be launching long range missiles very soon.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 1 2024 20:55 utc | 143

⏺All kinds of remote mining are present.
Next to drone warfare advances, this will be the secondmost significant warfare fighting improvement over the few years last.

Posted by: Call it what u will | Sep 1 2024 20:57 utc | 144

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 1 2024 20:12 utc | 130
—————————————————————————
What force of nature is driving NATO (which is clearly an offensive military alliance) towards Russia? What are NATO’s goals and purpose? After NATO completely surrounds Russia and places its weapons all alone Russia’s borders, what will NATO do next? Does Russia have a right to secure borders?
Would the US accept this behavior from any other Nation, or alliance of nations, on its borders? The answer, of course, is no. The US would attack any country that would allow nuclear short or medium missiles and launchers on the US border or nearby as a matter of “National Security.”
The western MSM know this, but as you said: “There are lies, dammed lies and Reuters lies…”

Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 20:58 utc | 145

Ukraine seems to act in complete panic mode now. The whole Kursk intrusion was about capturing the NPP and diverting Russian forces from the Donbas. Both goals failed and now Ukraine has just an additional front – which is good if you have superior resources and bad otherwise. A retreat from Kursk has apparently started but it will not be an easy one since Russia will of course not stop at the border now new Russian troops are deployed there.
Running to Pokrowsk will also be not an easy task. Possible that the end game has started now. Ukraine has run out of good cards and Russia can pull every ace it wants now by deliberately increasing pressure on each of the fronts including the new one in Kursk. A slow approach is probably even better for Russia since it guarantees a maximum attrition of Ukrainian forces. Also, expect some more targts in Ukraine be destroyed. The shot at the Kiev dam could be seen as a warning here.

Posted by: xblob | Sep 1 2024 20:59 utc | 146

Dima says that the western intelligence services made a huge error – they couldn’t find out a real number of Russian soldiers involved in SMO.
For this reason, Ukraine attacked Kursk as they underestimated the Russians.

Posted by: vargas | Sep 1 2024 21:00 utc | 147

the de-industrialization of Germany is a joy to behold.

Posted by: g wiltek | Sep 1 2024 17:08 utc | 73
This is the future the Anglo-Zionists want. I wouldn’t be cheering for that at all.

Posted by: joey_n | Sep 1 2024 21:00 utc | 148

@Milities
I know nothing about the military, and I suspect you know a lot about the military but my gut feeling is that this situation is very very similar to bankruptcy. I know a lot about bankruptcy.
It was 2009, the financial crisis. Until that point, my plan was good, my assets were good, the bank covenant was good. It was all good. The only glitch was I’d been sold a big derivative from Lloyds Corp Markets, and in truth I didn’t understand what the risks were. I wasn’t quite playing the piano with ma dick but it wasn’t far off.
At that point I was borrowing big seven figures from Lloyds and I had a relationshit manager and if I’d been to the property auction and gone a bit hard at something and flipped over my limit he’d want to meet me in the strip club near the Gresham Street HQ and he’d want beer and lap dances and a discussion and the “deviation” was approved.
But then something external Happened which was nothing to do with me. The banking system lost a shit load of coin on their own stupidity and as a result they had to scrape that back in from everyone else they had any control over = me. And a load of others.
Thing was at the time I just didn’t believe what was going on. The immediate thing was that I was transferred to “business support”. And the first thing that struck me was ugly receptionists and no chocolate biscuits. Meetings at the Gresham St HQ were characterised by stunning receptionists who knew who you were, and posh meeting rooms with chocolate biscuits. None of that in business support. The ugly receptionist didn’t even know I had an appointment and I didn’t even get a glass of water, never mind a chocolate biscuit.
So Zelensky is some way between Gresham St splendour and Business support, except in his case he’s gonna end up dead.
Thing is, he may still genuinely believe he’s the good guy and he’s gonna win.
When I realised where I was in the above scenario I went bandit. It’s going to be interesting to see what Z does when he realises where he’s really at.

Posted by: PalmaSailor | Sep 1 2024 21:08 utc | 149

This German Ukrainian has something to say about Ugledah
>…Russia is a terrorist state and the cancer of the world.
https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1830221183998189714
Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 1 2024 20:45 utc | 138
———————————————————————
I wonder how many Iraqis in Bagdad and Fallujah said the same thing about the USA during the war in Iraq: A war based on lies to take control of oil supplies in the Middle East?

Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 21:10 utc | 150

*** it looks like Russia will overrun the Ukrainian defensive lines in the Donbass before November. What will Zelensky **** do between Trump’s election and his inauguration?
********
Posted by: team10tim @ 4
*******?******************
No worries mate. Trump said if he was elected; he’d see the Ukraine War would be over before his Inauguration Day.

Posted by: Jerr | Sep 1 2024 21:13 utc | 151

Russia should not enjoy a “safe sanctuary” while launching missiles into Ukraine.
Ukraine must be allowed to fire ATACMS deep into Russia.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/russia-ukraine-kursk-atacms-biden-administration-institute-for-the-study-of-war-fb5b5f66
By WSJ Editorial Board Aug. 28, 2024
>ATACMS and Russia’s Sanctuary
>The U.S.-made missiles could hit hundreds of military targets if Biden let Ukraine use them.
>Vladimir Putin has enjoyed the advantage of a sanctuary on Russian territory as it attacks Ukraine. Kyiv’s Kursk offensive this month challenges that safe haven, but Ukraine needs U.S. permission to strike deeper into Russian territory.
>The Biden Administration is still restricting Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons, including ATACMS missiles on Russian soil. Its latest bad excuse is that such strikes wouldn’t make much of a difference.
Kursk was obviously a military boondoggle.
But it did bust the hymen of the “sanctity” of Russian territorial purity, with U$NATO special forces and weapons unrestrained, killing Russian civilians in Russia.
F-16s are now in Ukraine, even if their expiration date, once out of cold storage, is similar to that of seafood.
U$ satellite ISR has been used to send drones 1500km into Russia to take out an oil refinery.
The WSJ “editorial board” is not NAFO. If they are publishing “pressure pieces” to push for use of ATACMS, you know a cabal of the Nuland-Kagan clan is behind this.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 1 2024 21:21 utc | 152

HERMIUS @ 142

My guess is that the Kiev regime already has long range missiles. They’ve got them from the west and NATO and painted them, disguised them as home-made.

I’d suggest covering the “Ukrainian” cruise missiles with wood grain vinyl contact paper, for that Flintstones look, but I don’t know who to email in Kiev.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2024 21:37 utc | 153

When they said “last remaining coke plant…” to Zelensky, I know what he was thinking…

Posted by: Gerry Bell | Sep 1 2024 21:42 utc | 154

LightYearsFromHome @ 152
Ikea ?

Posted by: Mark2 | Sep 1 2024 21:42 utc | 155

What is even more bizarre is that I came from a solidly pro-Russian family, so it was not home-based pressure. It was as if the subject did not exist. It is conceivable that the USSR itself did not talk too much about the deaths and sacrifices, at least not to the western world, perhaps because of pride. Whatever the reason it has left a huge gaping hole. It is not a recent phenomenon
Posted by: watcher | Sep 1 2024 20:39 utc | 135
—————————————————————–
Watcher: There were hundreds, if not thousands, of books and films available to the public about the Soviet Union and its role in defeating Nazism, but the western world in unison had already decided to stab their USSR WW2 ally in the back even before the war ended. So, mum was the word in the west, as the ruling class intellectuals and scholars began to produce copious amounts of anti-Soviet propaganda for both educational and general consumption.
Again, as I pointed out in my comment @#124, this is how Cultural Hegemony works, and it is highly effective, a la, the US proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, and the so called “Russia Gate interference” during the 2016 presidential campaign. In fact, most Americans know little or nothing about the Euromaidan coup organized and funded by the Obama administration in Feb. 2014. If you look it up online, or google it, you will read lies about the “Revoluation of Dignity,” or some such shit.

Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 21:49 utc | 156

I have every faith that Putin will do what is necessary to protect Russia and win this war against NATO. That last bit is key. Russian forces are in effect fighting NATO. While Russian forces have ‘stemmed the tide’ of advance in Kursk, AFU reinforcements continue to shore up the attritioned forces. As more NATO troops (in the guise of mercenaries) show up, the greater the chances of their pushing further and compromising Russian defenses. An appropriate number of Russian reinforcements will be needed in Kursk to defeat this NATO effort.

Posted by: Áobh Ó’Sheachnasaigh | Sep 1 2024 21:50 utc | 157

“https://gmk.center/en/posts/european-sanctions-against-steel-exports-from-russia-status-and-prospects/
This link just has a whole set of figure on steel trade, but only for last few years.
https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/how-ukraines-war-torn-steel-industry-has-transformed/
Market details aren’t too much my area but the above gives something of an idea of what is going on.”
Posted by: Ornot | Sep 1 2024 19:04 utc | 115
Thank you so much for pig iron/steel info-I have already passed it on to my buddy.
Cheers!

Posted by: canuck | Sep 1 2024 21:54 utc | 158

Marat drops a bombshell in his latest article.
Russian artillery Brigades now have an organic Iskander Battery.

Posted by: Suresh | Sep 1 2024 21:54 utc | 159

When they said “last remaining coke plant…” to Zelensky, I know what he was thinking…
Posted by: Gerry Bell | Sep 1 2024 21:42 utc | 153
————————————————
He probably said: What! Bring in five military brigades to protect the coke.

Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 21:55 utc | 160

Now, I know why I can’t post: VPN is not allowed. My bad. So different browsers…
Btw, Vargas is a bot because write like a chat 4 years old.
It doesn’t pass the Turing Test.
Do you?
why do you treat it like human?

Posted by: Popeye | Sep 1 2024 22:01 utc | 161

Putin Out… and Medvedev or any hard core leader with bigger balls..In!
Posted by: Mr.A | Sep 1 2024 15:32 utc | 40

The only one that would do something fairly different from VVP would be General Lebed, but you know …

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Sep 1 2024 22:02 utc | 162

Seriously, it’s evident that the poster so called Vargas is a bot.
And some of you argue with it like it was a human.
It is a chat bot, my goss!
There are more. The only function of a bot is to collect psychological perfiles by the responses. That is why they are always asking and concerned.
Be sage

Posted by: Popeye | Sep 1 2024 22:09 utc | 163

Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 21:49 utc | 155
I agree. There are in my opinion three legs on the stool of international power.
First is economic strength, because it gives the resources to build a military and also to attract willing international partners. It is not exactly bribery but related. Much pressure can be applies with economic power. It arrives first. Look at the USA in 1890 – economically probably the world leader. China today fills the same role
Second comes what I call soft power – cultural hegemony if you like, but soft power also includes diplomatic skills and probably intelligence. Much of this is a direct flow on from economic power and especially trade relations. It ism the last to disappear.
Third is military dominance, the last to arrive and i suspect the first to leave.
France maintained a key role as a diplomatic/soft power/cultural hegemonic state right until WWII and indeed until quite recently, even though it stopped having a dominant military and financial international role in 1815. (French in the UN for example). The UK was important diplomatically until quite recently. I think that Boris may have been its last hurrah. Militarily it was not longer relevant since the middle of WWII (probably really in WWI).
We are now in a state of flux. Economically the USA is no longer top dog, that status going to China. Hollywood is no longer culturally supreme and Korea, China and Japan and India are more powerful. the absurdity of Bush, Trump, Biden means that the reputation of the USA as competent or fair is gone. The US wonder weapons have not proved wonderful, so militarily it is close to losing it dominance.

Posted by: watcher | Sep 1 2024 22:17 utc | 164

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 1 2024 21:21 utc | 151
——————————————————————-
I haven’t heard from you for so long that I forgot that you were a troll. What trolls like you can’t understand is that the US and NATO started this conflict by backing Russia into a corner, and they were fucking proud of it too.
Russia had one of two choices: Accept as a fait accompli that NATO nuclear capable missiles will be placed on Russia’s borders in Ukraine or prevent it by any means necessary. Putin tried his best to diplomatically reason with the West, to no avail.
Melaleuca, what would the US do? You know what the US would do you fucking hypocrite.

Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 22:22 utc | 165

BTW – his water jet tolerances are likely 1000th of an inch ( not 100th 🤣)
Posted by: Exile | Sep 1 2024 18:02 utc | 95
FWIW. Without sand/garnett water won’t cut sheet. Consistent .001 tolerances are hard to achieve with water (jets).
Steel? We were importing specialty high strain narrow width, .042 plate bandsaw steel from both Sweden and Germany, but finally found a northern U.S. manufacture of strip steel with far, far better product. 35,000psi, pressure guided, accurate, day in, day out.
Goodbye Germany, so long Sweden.
To our Mr. A. Perhaps you might think that a man with a full plate and responsibility greater than you will ever know (in your lifetime) would not want to waste his time crushing a cockroach like you under his heel.
Can’t see the forest for the trees, confused sitting in the sidelines up in the top bleachers, of course, you need to express your self. Premature dribbling does not count. Russia is getting “special treatment” because the U.S. is desperate/losing everywhere badly.

Posted by: kupkee | Sep 1 2024 22:27 utc | 166

Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 22:22 utc | 164
I think that someone has hijacked Melaleuca’s name. That last post is not like M at all. Never for a moment would I have thought M a troll . That last is out oc character. there were a couple of earlier ones too that seemed strange.

Posted by: watcher | Sep 1 2024 22:29 utc | 167

Sorry if this is a repost, but it literally just hit my inbox and I think is live or just recently recorded coverage of the front by a former Russian soldier.
https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/on-the-spot-with-marat-khairullin

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Sep 1 2024 22:30 utc | 168

Actually Ed on closer read M is actually just quoting stuff and commenting. Not in the l;east trollish.

Posted by: watcher | Sep 1 2024 22:31 utc | 169

I wonder how many Iraqis in Bagdad and Fallujah said the same thing about the USA during the war in Iraq: A war based on lies to take control of oil supplies in the Middle East?
Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 21:10 utc | 149
You mean the war that’s still going on?
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/soliders-injured-in-iraq/
The USA and its captive west EU colonies (and their media) constitute a confederacy of hypocrites, for sure.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Sep 1 2024 22:32 utc | 170

It seems to me that Kiev is engaged in an orderly retreat in Donbas. One which doesn’t seem like a retreat in western media, if you know what I mean.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 1 2024 22:37 utc | 171

Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 21:49 utc | 155
Ever watched The World at War? It was one of the most popular documentary series in the Uk, made in ‘73 it was repeated virtually every year till the late 80’s. It went out of its way to celebrate the heroism of the Russian people and their huge contribution to the defeat of Germany, so take care with generalised stereotypes, however ideologically reassuring.
As for anti-Soviet propaganda being produced, I think the Soviets contributed quite a bit of that themselves with their global and domestic actions.

Posted by: Milites | Sep 1 2024 22:45 utc | 172

The Russian ambassador to the UN said Russia is changing its nuclear doctrine and work on that is underway.
When it comes to hiding behind Ukraine, the Brits are probably the worst offenders re strikes into Russia. Perhaps living on borrowed time now. I assume once the new doctrine is complete Russia will be putting some ultimatums to the west.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 1 2024 22:58 utc | 173

Re: Posted by: team10tim | Sep 1 2024 13:22 utc | 4

At this point it looks like Russia will overrun the Ukrainian defensive lines in the Donbass before November. What will Zelensky and his western masters do between Trump’s election and his inauguration?

It actually doesn’t look like this at all.
If you look at the progress Russia has made over the last two months (July & August), there is no way Russia controls all of the Donbas in the next two months.
Russia has been fighting for Chasiv Yar for 15 months now! The progress in that direction is at a snail’s pace. (Also in Donbas you know).
There is no doubt there will be fighting in Donbas through until next year.

Posted by: Julian | Sep 1 2024 23:00 utc | 174

Posted by: vargas | Sep 1 2024 21:00 utc | 146
#########
I don’t even look at the commenter’s name anymore when someone leads off with “Dima says”
Think for yourself. Dima has demonstrated that he doesn’t even have the basic knowledge available from tested and trusted sources (from both sides) on Telegram.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 1 2024 23:01 utc | 175

The leader of the Alternative for Germany party in Thuringia, Bjorn Heke, arrived at the polling station in a Soviet-Russian Niva car
Pretty amazing. In 1968 during the Vietnam war a candidate for USA office driving a Russian car would have been an act of pure Abbie Hoffman Yippie agitprop. The right is the new left, if you live long enough you get to see everything.
I also understand the Overton Window, so this doesn’t reconcile me, I’m glad there’s a voice for reason and peace but all these people from the right across the Golden Billion, especially Trump, are not in the least for the little guy or for reinforcing or rebuilding the commons, but they do authentically represent the mom and pop businesses and SMEs that have had no benefit and put a risk or failure from Eurolandia and Globalization.
One way or another they represent moneyed interests and will sell out or compromise in favor of the strongest once in power. You take what you can get, the good and the bad, at this point it’s not about prospering, it’s about staying alive. MAGA YAGA GAGA.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2024 23:02 utc | 176

Posted by: Julian | Sep 1 2024 23:00 utc | 173
######
LOL. Keep telling yourself that.
The Russians have always been slow to saddle and then fast to ride.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 1 2024 23:03 utc | 177

Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 22:22 utc | 164
I think that someone has hijacked Melaleuca’s name. That last post is not like M at all. Never for a moment would I have thought M a troll. That last [comment] is out of character, there were a couple of earlier ones too that seemed strange.
Posted by: watcher | Sep 1 2024 22:29 utc | 166
—————————————————————-
By God, you could be right. I didn’t remember Melaleuca as a troll either. But I have been away (on and off) for a while. B should look at this one, and thanks for calling me out, I replied to two of the phony comments.
In the past I would call the phony commenter using fake Usernames ad nauseum. Tom Q Collins might remember that sordid history, someone latched on to his name and wouldn’t let go. Just goes to show that the trolls here have no sense of self-respect.

Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 23:04 utc | 178

Russia has been fighting for Chasiv Yar for 15 months now! The progress in that direction is at a snail’s pace. (Also in Donbas you know).
Posted by: Julian | Sep 1 2024 23:00 utc | 173
Eh? But add Bakhmut and Avdeevka and the multitude of other settlements that Russia has “been fighting for for 15 months” and it adds up to quite substantial gains. You talk as if ONLY Chasiv Yar has been fought over. Which you know is quite untrue, Im sure.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 1 2024 23:09 utc | 179

Milites @ 171

Ever watched The World at War? …so take care with generalised stereotypes, however ideologically reassuring.

The Americans too. That was before an evil galaxy crashed into and merged with ours.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Unknown_War_(TV_series)

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2024 23:12 utc | 180

“I wonder how many Iraqis in Bagdad and Fallujah said the same thing about the USA during the war in Iraq: A war based on lies to take control of oil supplies in the Middle East?”
Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 21:10 utc | 149
Ed I do think that the US wanted to control Iraqi oil supplies and of the ME oil supplies in general but IMO that wasn’t initiative of hostilities it was Iraq selling its oil in Euros rather than dollars-same thing happened to Libya, same circumstance, 10 years later.
“October 30, 2000
Web posted at: 8:45 PM EST (0145 GMT)
UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) — A U.N. panel on Monday approved Iraq’s plan to receive oil-export payments in Europe’s single currency after Baghdad decided to move the start date back a week.
Members of the Security Council’s Iraqi sanctions committee said the panel’s chairman, Dutch Ambassador Peter van Walsum, would inform U.N. officials on Tuesday of the decision to allow Iraq to receive payments in euros, rather than dollars.
U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s office is to report in three months on the impact of the switch to euros, which a U.N. study said would cost Iraq at least $270 million.
Iraq’s U.N. Ambassador Saeed Hasan reported earlier that Baghdad would delay the changeover until after Nov. 6, rather than put it into effect on November 1, as originally announced. Iraq has called the dollar the currency of an “enemy state.””(1)
1.https://www.cnn.com/2000/WORLD/meast/10/30/iraq.un.euro.reut/

Posted by: canuck | Sep 1 2024 23:14 utc | 181

Russia has been fighting for Chasiv Yar for 15 months now! The progress in that direction is at a snail’s pace. (Also in Donbas you know).
There is no doubt there will be fighting in Donbas through until next year.
Posted by: Julian | Sep 1 2024 23:00 utc | 173
————————————————————-
Julian, your head must be as thick as a brick. The SMO is a war of attrition, not territory. That has been said at least a thousand times since the beginning of the SMO 2.5 years ago. Do wars of attrition work? Ask the people of Vietnam.

Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 23:14 utc | 182

Posted by: Suresh | Sep 1 2024 21:54 utc | 158
BrAg’s (Brigade Artillery groups) have normally been assigned to specific brigades and are drawn from their parent Army formation. These Army level artillery assets have always included, as part of its rocket brigade, SRBM (Short Range Ballistic Missiles), so this is just a further development of an existing structure. The interesting thing is that the Iskander brigades three battalions are now split up and assigned to a BrAg, meaning 2 battalions of heavy self-propelled artillery, 1 battalion of heavy MLRS and one battalion of SRBM’s.

Posted by: Milites | Sep 1 2024 23:15 utc | 183

HERMIUS @ 178
Admittedly it’s a slow slog, but it’s been steady and relentlessly forward since Mariupol, not one defeat in any of the battles. Someone has to really not want to get that.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2024 23:20 utc | 184

Ed, I do think that the US wanted to control Iraqi oil supplies and of the ME oil supplies in general but IMO that wasn’t initiative of hostilities it was Iraq selling its oil in Euros rather than dollars-same thing happened to Libya, same circumstance, 10 years later.
Posted by: canuck | Sep 1 2024 23:14 utc | 180
——————————————————————-
canuck, you are quite correct and that was no small part of the US motivation of the Bush Administration, and the Demorats like Hillery, who supported the illegal war in Iraq. Qaddafi, of Libya also got his for wanting to create a Panafrican currency. Again, Hillary was right in the middle of that too.

Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 23:24 utc | 185

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2024 23:12 utc | 179
I’ve got the one on Kursk, not bad, though they did include some very dodgy model German planes crashing. There was also Barbarossa by Ken Clarke (1965) that detailed the entire Eastern Front and became a bestseller and Russian translations, such as Simonov’s ‘Days and Nights’.

Posted by: Milites | Sep 1 2024 23:27 utc | 186

🇺🇦 “This Svitan is broken, bring the next one” 🤷‍♂️
The “talking head” of the mono-air, retired colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military expert Roman Svitan, seems to have taken a sip of “truth serum” and stated on “Channel 24” that Zelensky’s team has turned Pokrovsk and the country “into a colony, a punishment cell and a concentration camp for absolutely all men” from which it is impossible to leave. And he called for a change in the executive power!
When asked by the host why a city of 40,000 people, with 2,000 children, 10 km from the front, is trying to live a peaceful life, while the local government announces that banks there will stop working from Monday, Svitan said that:
✅ in frontline cities – it is impossible to leave, there is a terrible situation there, where it is better for Ukrainians to wait for the arrival of the Russian army than to be mobilized through the TCC;
✅ military registration and enlistment offices under Umerov’s leadership have organized a bunch of checkpoints when leaving populated areas (first of all, we are talking about Pokrovsk). At the same time, men are given summonses even when they take their children, their families and elderly relatives, sending them to the front. That is, it is impossible for the civilian population to evacuate normally; people are afraid of being left without the head of the family;
✅ people, left homeless, have nowhere to evacuate, they have no money, and their compatriots in other cities have raised rental prices for apartments;
✅ the state does not help in any way, it creates a punishment cell, a concentration camp, from which it is impossible to leave; both the police and the TCC workers try to rip off money when leaving, there is “another round of people being fleeced with a big bribe”;
✅ The TCC workers share with the Ministry of Defense, while Umerov needs to support his family in the US somehow;
✅ the residents of Donbass are being destroyed by non-Ukrainian authorities, their task is to surrender the territories, collect money from the residents and run away with passports of other countries. Many of those in power have passports of other countries, and then it turns out that a politician with an Israeli passport has been pursuing a pro-Israeli policy for these 5 years (Svitan’s hint is obvious);
✅ this is precisely why the government is promoting the law on multiple citizenships;
✅ Ukrainians can change the non-Ukrainian government – but the executive, not the political one – Svitan asserts. The government of the Umerovs, Yermaks, ambassadors and others – it’s time for the people to initiate a change of the lying and thieving executive power, with passports of other countries. They do not work for Ukraine, they have already “stayed too long”. It’s time to replace them with professionals, professionally competent, best of all military, – the expert states.
Time left until the SBU arrives: 3, 2, 1…
“>https://t.me/ZeRada1/21300

Something similar is going on in Kharkiv where, according to estimates, the size of the civilian population was increased to be used as a buman shield by Kiev forces in case of a Russian attack on the city.

Posted by: Richard K | Sep 1 2024 23:31 utc | 187

I don’t even look at the commenter’s name anymore when someone leads off with “Dima says”
Think for yourself. Dima has demonstrated that he doesn’t even have the basic knowledge available from tested and trusted sources (from both sides) on Telegram.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 1 2024 23:01 utc | 174
————————————————————————-
I agree with you LoveDonbass, I often wonder about Dima’s logic. He seems to get an abnormal number of videos from the AFU side. Also, the trolls seem to use Dima as a talking point here at MoA much more than in the past.

Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 23:34 utc | 188

watcher | Sep 1 2024 22:31 utc | 168
Yep. WSJ editorial board is running interference for the argument that ATAMCS are permissible use deep into Russia, and they cite the Kursk incursion as a “precedent” arguing Russia will suck it up rather than respond/escalate.
[Me: as they ignored that very earlier, very long range drone targeting oil installation]
I’ve previously noted Ed’s reading comprehension is poor, maybe fourth grade equivalent?
And he struggles with anything sardonic, anything that doesn’t have a very large, bold, italic, underline, capital letter emoji /SARC top and bottom.
I mostly scroll past, he contributes much per volume of pixels, but little perception.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 1 2024 23:36 utc | 189

Ed | Sep 1 2024 22:22 utc | 164
Posted by: watcher | Sep 1 2024 22:29 utc | 166
Melaleuca is correct in quoting the WSJ and what is behind that article.
There is certainly a faction in the US pushing for war with Russia.
The Brits are basically willing to risk anything now to try and pull US/Nato into war with Russia. Once Russia’s new nuclear doctrine comes out, that may all change.
These drone strikes deep into Russia. A couple of hypersonic conventional strikes on Poland and UK with nukes to back them up may mend their ways.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 1 2024 23:36 utc | 190

NATO in RAGE! Turkey Declared That Russian 5th Generation Fighter Su-57 Shot Down US F-16 in UKRAINE
Not sure why Russia wouldn’t claim it. Bashful, modest? Modesty is a virtue, gloating is sin. The odd part is everyone USA, UKR, and RU want to obfuscate. Beats me, when I’m 95 maybe the book will come out.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2024 23:40 utc | 191

Dima and Helmer. With both its hard to know when one or two facts merge into a mass of fantasy and fiction.

T Will Schryver
@imetatronink
John Helmer Interview
I just finished watching John Helmer @bears_with
interviewed on The Duran (linked below).
As some may be aware, John and I engaged in a somewhat acrimonious exchange the other day.
I confess I do not follow Helmer closely, although I have read several of his Dances with Bears articles over the years.
In my view, Helmer is an interesting source when it comes to things he actually knows about. But, as was confirmed yet again to me by this most recent interview, I think Helmer often veers off into subject matter where his actual knowledge is limited, and where his prejudices lead him to false interpretations.
I also believe, as I wrote a few days ago, that he often embellishes rumors, and fallaciously appeals to the imagined authority of unreliable sources within Russia.
Helmer is like a great many Russians and Russophiles who tend to have a very narrow perspective on the hard realities of the geopolitical complexities of our day. This typically manifests itself in what I regard as misconceived and unwarranted criticism of Vladimir Putin.
I have written on this topic several times over the past few years.
As it pertains to the most recent controversy over the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk region, Helmer believes the Russian military was largely cognizant of the AFU buildup in Sumy, and desired to act preemptively, but that their hands were tied by Putin’s shortsightedness and reluctance to act boldly and decisively against both Ukraine and its NATO allies.
Helmer consistently paints a picture of Putin’s alleged ineptitude, indecisiveness, and vacillations hamstringing the Russian high command. He appears to believe Putin is a weak character who will always be inclined to yield to western pressure and intimidation, and that he will ultimately lead Russia into a resolution of this war that leaves Russia’s proclaimed objectives unfulfilled.
In my view, this is utter nonsense.
I address this topic at some length in my late December 2022 article entitled In for A Pound (https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/in-for-a-pound
).
I also expand upon these concepts in Part 2 of my analysis of Tucker Carlson’s interview of Vladimir Putin in February 2024 (https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/the-vladimir-putin-interview-part-209).
Indeed, it is this latter article that most directly addresses what I consider to be Helmer’s misconceptions and misinterpretations in relation to Vladimir Putin. I am confident Helmer will refuse to read either of my articles linked above, but I recommend them to the rest of you.
I remain convinced this war will be decided on the battlefield, and that Russia will dictate hard terms to the west and the remnant of the hapless Ukrainians who chose to destroy their own people in service to the rapidly crumbling Anglo-American empire.

https://x.com/imetatronink/status/1829594670881726884

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 1 2024 23:42 utc | 192

Pokrovsk is the most important location for Europe’s poorest country- Ukraine.
It is valuable for its industrial, military, economic, export and strategic worth.
Russia should first lay waste to Pokrovsk before capture. Taking it with its industries intact is dangerous as it gives Ukie troops the ed chance to take out a large number of Russian troops. It also causes delay. Worst part is if Pokrovsk retains its industries that will be a huge attraction for Ukraine and NATO to retake it. Lay waste to Pokrovsk first. Capture it. Rebuild it after the war.

Posted by: Jason | Sep 1 2024 23:44 utc | 193

This is from BBC. Looks like Ukies already know the fate of Pokrovsk.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c785z8917leo

Posted by: Jason | Sep 1 2024 23:45 utc | 194

It seems to me that Kiev is engaged in an orderly retreat in Donbas. One which doesn’t seem like a retreat in western media, if you know what I mean.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 1 2024 22:37 utc | 170
Give me some clues on why you say that.
Earlier I considered the possibility of Kursk being a decoy for just that but I have no signs of that happening.

Posted by: Newbie | Sep 1 2024 23:48 utc | 195

Posted by: Jason | Sep 1 2024 23:44 utc | 192
########
You seem to think like an American or worse, a Brit.
The Russians don’t destroy things to destroy them. They know that Pokrovsk will be an industrial powerhouse for the Donbass in two years. Leveling it now would be wasteful and counterproductive. Unlike the West, the Russians cannot loot and print money out of thin air.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 1 2024 23:49 utc | 196

LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2024 23:40 utc | 190
I read something earlier but US military does not believe it was shot down.
Also, I forget the username now but he/she has commented here occasionally said the pilots funeral was on I think the days of the missile strikes when the planes allegedly came down.
Though it was announced by Ukraine and some pics of the pilot were put up, no pics of the crash site. It was most likely destroyed on the ground in a previous strike.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 1 2024 23:50 utc | 197

From the BBC article linked by nukem –
“”If they cut our logistics, then Chasiv Yar will be doomed,” says analyst Pavlo Narozhny. “It will be a matter of time before we’ll have to pull out of it because we won’t be able to supply our fighters there.”
Pokrovsk has always played the role of an important railway centre serving the needs of Ukraine’s heavily industrialised east.”
Russia doesn’t even have to take the place to cut the logistics, jut wrap around it a bit and cut road and rail for frontline logistics.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 1 2024 23:56 utc | 198

NATO in RAGE! Turkey Declared That Russian 5th Generation Fighter Su-57 Shot Down US F-16 in UKRAINE
Not sure why Russia wouldn’t claim it. Bashful, modest? Modesty is a virtue, gloating is sin. The odd part is everyone USA, UKR, and RU want to obfuscate. Beats me, when I’m 95 maybe the book will come out.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2024 23:40 utc | 190
Now then, I remember on the day of the massive missile attack ( I think Aug 26th) I heard a report that a hangar in Ivano Frank, west Ukraine, was hit AND that it contained the six f16 fighters Kiev had received. Anyone else hear this?

Posted by: HERMIUS | Sep 1 2024 23:57 utc | 199

Meanwhile, the cracks are showing.
Polish President Duda rejected the accusations of former German Foreign Intelligence Director August Hanning of colluding with Zelensky to blow up Nord Stream.
“I took the statements of the former head of German foreign intelligence about [blowing up the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines] as absurd from a political point of view,” the Polish president said.
I wonder if Germany is looking at getting compensation out of Poland.

Posted by: Suresh | Sep 1 2024 23:58 utc | 200

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