Ukraine Open Thread 2024-209
News & views related to the war in Ukraine ...
It seems that the Ukrainian army is now betting on holding Pokrovsk, a rail and road hub which happens to also hold the only coal mine usable for coke production. Without the Ukrainian coke the already damaged Ukrainian metallurgic industry will be in a steep decline.
The 72nd brigade was ordered from Ugledar in the south, where it had been in defensive positions over the last two years, towards the Pokrovsk salient. Following that move the Russian army launched an all out attack on Ugledar.
The Ukrainian units involved in the Kursk invasion are reportedly also getting called back to move towards Pokrovsk. But they have by now received a serious beating and have lost a lot of their armored vehicles and fighting capabilities.
Troops on the move are targets. Lets see how many are left when they arrive.
...
Posted by b on September 1, 2024 at 13:03 UTC | Permalink
next page »Oh no, not the coke plant! Anything but the coke plant! (Best heard in a Daffy Duck voice.)
But seriously, someone from Blackrock is on the phone right now, screaming at someone in the White House staff. They paid good money for that coke!
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Sep 1 2024 13:12 utc | 1
It appears that Ukraine/Zhelensky demanded permission to strike deep into Russia with western missiles but did not get a green light. So he’s winding down the Kursk adventure as a kind of ostentatious sulk.
At least that’s the story, probably not true.
Just last night hundreds of Ukraine drones attack Russia. The cover story is that these are low tech and homemade. But smokescreened by the story that the west has forbidden its missile strikes in Russia, the best west tech will now find its way into the cutesy drones flying into Russia which will gain effectiveness. Then we’ll have “my o my, look what the Ukrainians can do with homemade drones!”
This war is like an NFL American football scrimmage - all manner of misdirection, the ball will be thrown to a running back somewhere if the Russian defenders don’t find and sack the quarterback.
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Sep 1 2024 13:15 utc | 2
Two (2) observations
(1) While retreating, the Ukrainian armed forces are massively flooding mines in Donbass. They are flooding them in Pokrovsk, as well as to the east, south and north. This concerns dozens of mines in Donbass, which are either being flooded or are already flooded. They are just repeating the actions of the Germans 81 years later; in August 1943, they flooded mines in Donbass before its liberation.
(2) The Ukrainian military has adapted sections of highways to receive F-16 aircraft instead of airbases to reduce the odds of a strike on them. They do not want a repeat of what happened on Monday when RAF obliterated a hangar hidding 2 of their nuclear-carrier F-16.
Posted by: AI | Sep 1 2024 13:19 utc | 3
At this point it looks like Russia will overrun the Ukrainian defensive lines in the Donbass before November. What will Zelensky and his western masters do between Trump's election and his inauguration?
Posted by: team10tim | Sep 1 2024 13:22 utc | 4
Ukraine Weekly Update, 30th August 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-440
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Sep 1 2024 13:26 utc | 5
Posted by: AI | Sep 1 2024 13:19 utc | 3
It's going to be good times when a F-16 attempts to take off from a Ukrainian highway, and an old coke can discarded by some babushka gets sucked in to the intake and the engine flames out.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Sep 1 2024 13:27 utc | 6
I guess all the criticism from the military and the public had an effect. But moving these troops won't save Pokrovsk. Too late as Russia is pretty much on the outskirts now and those FAB bombs give you no place to hide...
Good to hear that Russian is attacking Ulegar, Ukraine is being forced to play a game of "whack a bear" with increasingly less effect.... All the armor, equipment and people lost in the Kursk "adventure" could have provided a robust defense of Pokrovsk (it would have just delayed the inevitable) In my unprofessional opinion, Ukraine appears to be running on fumes. I hope that Russia will take out a few more of those 750kv stations as they can't be quickly (if at all) repaired. I humbly suggest the Russians put out the lights completely particularly in Kiev. The complete loss of power might be enough for the Ukrainians to say "no mas'.
Posted by: ctiger | Sep 1 2024 13:27 utc | 7
I suspect that the real reason for moving the 72nd to Pokrovsk is just to hang on to the place long enough to completely destroy the infrastructure. I think it's pretty clear by now that the Ukrainians can't hold on to anything on the eastern front for very long. Reinforcing one place just makes some other places fall faster, putting the defended place in a pocket that soon become a cauldron. This process is accelerating rapidly because there just aren't enough UKr troops and equipment to hold the entire front.
If 404 was an actual country, it would be long past time to make the choice between capitulation or a retreat to the Dnieper while hanging on as long as possible to Kharkov. There's no viable long game for Ukraine, but that would be the best shot at slowing things down. Since Ukraine is not calling the shots, though, it seems that keeping the world on the brink of nuclear was will continue to be the prevailing strategy of the west.
Posted by: Honzo | Sep 1 2024 13:28 utc | 8
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Sep 1 2024 13:27 utc | 6
"""""""""""""""""""""""""""
I *look* forward to that.
Posted by: AI | Sep 1 2024 13:28 utc | 9
Dima has theorized that the next step for the Russians is going to be a quick dash for the Dneiper. I don't think so.
The current offensive to the South will give a cushion of territory to Donetsk City, which has suffered greatly from being close to the front line. This is understandable and Donetsk has some clout in policy circles.
After this, I assume Pokrovsk will be taken. Even if it is only neutralized by interdicting the supply lines in-and-out that will still work. I think the next big push will be to take Kostanivka and then on the way to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
A push to the Dneiper, on the other hand, would expose a long supply tail, through sparsely built-up terrain, to interdiction.
This is just an opinion.
Posted by: Retired Morlock | Sep 1 2024 13:31 utc | 10
How does the UAF still have enough fuel to move troops around?
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Sep 1 2024 13:36 utc | 11
Two (2) observations
(1) While retreating, the Ukrainian armed forces are massively flooding mines in Donbass. They are flooding them in Pokrovsk, as well as to the east, south and north. This concerns dozens of mines in Donbass, which are either being flooded or are already flooded. They are just repeating the actions of the Germans 81 years later; in August 1943, they flooded mines in Donbass before its liberation.
(2) The Ukrainian military has adapted sections of highways to receive F-16 aircraft instead of airbases to reduce the odds of a strike on them. They do not want a repeat of what happened on Monday when RAF obliterated a hangar hidding 2 of their nuclear-carrier F-16.
Posted by: AI | Sep 1 2024 13:19 utc | 3
1. Yes , I think I was the one posting the tass article https://tass.com/politics/1836373
2. I also pasted that one https://tass.com/world/1836383 but mentioned I didn't believe it (would if we were talking about saab's gripens) , just a fig leaf for F-16s not being flown or maintained from ukraine airfields ... care to guess where they'll work from?
Posted by: Newbie | Sep 1 2024 13:41 utc | 12
Lots of Ukie camp fires started overnight in Russia, but but, no biggie, right? With the continued drone swarm attacks taking out Russian energy infrastructure and whatever "sensitive rear" sites that are verboten to even mention in Russia, I see no need for Ukie to hold any ground. Russia missed the boat, lost a few too, but no biggie, right, Russia has so much energy power and might the SlogMow will be over right after the Ukies burn down the last Russian refinery.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 1 2024 13:43 utc | 13
Speaking of fig leafs, the story being passed around is that Kursk failed because the West would not approve strikes deep inside Russia with ATCMS and other long-range weapons.
This provides a good coping story for the election - "Ukraine would have succeeded in Kursk if it hadn't been for the West not going all-in. The next time we'll do better!"
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Sep 1 2024 13:44 utc | 14
@Ghost of Zanon.
The fuel is donated by Russia. Because the Slavic brothers in Ukraine should not suffer any hardship.
Posted by: guest from franconia | Sep 1 2024 13:46 utc | 15
"This war is like an NFL American football scrimmage - all manner of misdirection, the ball will be thrown to a running back somewhere if the Russian defenders don’t find and sack the quarterback."
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Sep 1 2024 13:15 utc | 2
When I played American football -over 40 years ago (tight end, safety and place kicker) we called theses type of plays, "razzle, dazzle", (1) we only did it when we were losing and desperate-so that seems, at this time, to be the entire Ukrainian playbook.
If 404 was an actual country, it would be long past time to make the choice between capitulation or a retreat to the Dnieper while hanging on as long as possible to Kharkov. There's no viable long game for Ukraine, but that would be the best shot at slowing things down. Since Ukraine is not calling the shots, though, it seems that keeping the world on the brink of nuclear was will continue to be the prevailing strategy of the west.
Posted by: Honzo | Sep 1 2024 13:28 utc | 8
Spot on. I mentioned that if thy saved a significant part of the retreating army they might, just might, have enough army and equipment to hold the Dnieper line.
Even considered Kursk might had been a decoy to allow that retreat without a slaughter.
But so far it doesn't add up.
Posted by: Newbie | Sep 1 2024 13:47 utc | 17
Posted by: Newbie | Sep 1 2024 13:47 utc | 17
One theory is that Zelensky is in suicide/kamikaze mode. He knows that Trump may very well win in around 60 days, and even if he doesn't, Harris has not been taking his phone calls. Indicating that one way or another, Project Ukraine will be wound down in 2025.
Kursk was a Hail Mary against the Coach's playcalling. Done without official support, the hope was that Western leaders would have no choice but to support it. Now it's been a month and no deal. Perhaps Zelensky seeks to blackmail Biden with a real Afghanistan-style collapse in the Donbass taking the headlines and hurting Harris.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Sep 1 2024 13:56 utc | 18
Woaaaah, only one troll left so far!
Where is the 0.01% guy?
Those trolls are cowards, stupid cowards.
Posted by: Naive | Sep 1 2024 13:59 utc | 19
@ 13.
Lol, change the broken record mate! According to your lot, the the Russians are in the state Ukraine is *actually* in.
Unfortunately a drone carrying a tiny payload is good for light armour, but not reinforced concrete & thick metal. The refineries thing etc, is a meme at this point.
Broadly speaking. The situation that was inevitable for the far weaker, poorer, outnumbered 5/6 to 1 in population side. In an attrition war is coming to pass...
Posted by: Urban Fox | Sep 1 2024 14:04 utc | 20
Thx for reporting, b.
A small note: The town's name is not "Ulegar" but "Ugledar" (Угледар), literally meaning "gift of coal". It was obliterated earlier in the war, but its ruins still formed a very important part of Ukraine's southern defence line. However, its fall became a matter of time after the Russians started to cut the main supply artery of its defenders a couple of weeks ago.
It remains to be seen, if ZSUs regrouping towards Krasnoarmeysk ("Pokrovsk") comes too late or will have a significant impact in slowing the Russian onslaught down. The post-Maidan junta at Bankova still has enough reserves, supplies and cheap gadgets to cause havoc.
In addition, they clearly follow Hitler's "Feste Plätze" doctrine of World War II, turning strategic points into whatever kind of "fortress", defending them particularly ferociously and not even abandon them if its defence is fruitless, the enemy far more superior, or an encirclement imminent. It is "Aryan soil" they fight on, their foes are “undermen”, "subhuman", "Asians", "vatniks", and other kinds of "Orcs" and therefore every inch of the holy Ukrainian territory must be defended. Like their beloved 'Adik,' the Bankova figures turn more and more insane, but are still far away from accepting defeat, especially with their Western donators and curators continuously giving them just enough goodies to carry on.
Apart from that, the real end fight will be the battle for Dnipropetrovsk / Kryvbass and Odessa. They are far too important to be left to the Russians (from a Western perspective) and it also remains to be seen whether the West itself will intervene - in whatever form - to maintain control over these oblasts. Maybe some big “Russian” terror attack (made by CIA, MI6, BND...) somewhere in Germany or France will convince the Western sheeple, that they have to send their soldiers to defend “freedom” and “democracy” on the Dnieper front...
Posted by: Seneschal | Sep 1 2024 14:05 utc | 21
Posted by: Newbie | Sep 1 2024 13:41 utc | 12
++++++++++++++++++++++++
You paste, I write. Wonderful. No royalties for the time being.
Posted by: AI | Sep 1 2024 14:07 utc | 22
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 1 2024 13:43 utc | 13
According to GlobalPetrolPrices.com, Russian petrol prices are up 5.5% yoy in ruble terms. One would have thought that the Great Ukrainian Refinery Campaign would have brought more impressive results than that by now.
Posted by: OnceWere | Sep 1 2024 14:19 utc | 23
[email protected] RF has stopped publishing it's energy exports. Like two weeks ago, hmm......why? All numbers are manipulable, even Russia's. All information floats in the propaganda chamber, yours, their's, mine, and everyone else's. Except at MOA, war? What war? Russia won back in Feb, 2020, the last three years have been a mop up operation. Well if you read the right propaganda.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 1 2024 14:33 utc | 24
We must not underestimate almost religious obedience of the Ukrainian society to the west. In Russia this belief is confined to liberals, but in Ukraine it is practically everybody. By being Ukrainian you become a kind of apprentice or monk beginner in the great devotion to the imaginative western world.
Posted by: vargas | Sep 1 2024 14:36 utc | 25
This war is like an NFL American football scrimmage - all manner of misdirection, the ball will be thrown to a running back somewhere if the Russian defenders don’t find and sack the quarterback.
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Sep 1 2024 13:15 utc | 2
...................................
Neat analogy. Though maybe we could replace 'ball' with 'nuclear football'!
Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 1 2024 14:36 utc | 26
Urban [email protected] payload. I don't know the payload, tiny or otherwise, I do know there is a rather large fire at an oil refinery somewhere near Moscow, too lazy to look it up for you but you can find it, and a high rise building, on fire, fire fighters are still there
Impressive for a tiny payload, yes? Truth like propaganda, we don't really know the extent of the damage. We do know that as everyday of the SlogMow processes, while Russia attrites Ukie (how many now, it'll end soon, right?) forces, some NATO too, day in, day out as long as it lasts, swarms of little drones with tiny payload will visit and tour much of Russia. Of course should 404 Ukie get, longer distance, bigger payload, bigger drones......all bets are off.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 1 2024 14:42 utc | 27
The Ukes are going to wreck those f 16 Vacuum cleaners all by themselves. You can't run them on roadways.
Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Sep 1 2024 14:43 utc | 28
Posted by: Urban Fox | Sep 1 2024 14:04 utc | 20
##########
Well-intentioned people often try to engage Gamma males with respect and friendship.
In the end, the toxic self-loathing and arrogance of these social dead ends tend to win out.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Sep 1 2024 14:48 utc | 29
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 1 2024 14:33 utc | 23
I guess I don't really understand how one hides the publicly-posted retail price of petrol at Russian gas stations. If prices aren't increasing, then the Russians aren't dealing with shortages and thus the Ukrainian efforts so far have not been
strategically significant, no ?
Posted by: OnceWere | Sep 1 2024 14:49 utc | 30
the best west tech will now find its way into the cutesy drones flying into Russia which will gain effectiveness. Then we’ll have “my o my, look what the Ukrainians can do with homemade drones!”
This war is like an NFL American football scrimmage - all manner of misdirection, the ball will be thrown to a running back somewhere if the Russian defenders don’t find and sack the quarterback.
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Sep 1 2024 13:15 utc | 2
That remains to be seen. Some of us recall the plan of Rheinmetall to open a factory in Ukraine with German air defense. The truth is that ANY air defense can be overwhelmed... a matter of capacity to handle simultaneously or almost simultaneously incoming projectiles and drones. So a longer term plans for Ukrainian production are problematic.
The other issue is why the West is so hesitant. My answer is the capacity of retaliating on Israel and American basis facilitated by a "strange war" that is ongoing, and can flare up at any time. If Russia provides top of the line weapons for that flare up, the West may feel pain, and Israeli lobby discretely works to avoid it. And it has some convincing power... Mind you, of Russians use borrowed hands, they do not need to care about the formal status, "made in Ukraine from Western parts" or "totally made in the West".
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Sep 1 2024 14:58 utc | 31
ctiger@1327
Just now read on the Rense site links, accounts of foresighted people in Kiev getting the hell outta Dodge (Kiev) well before winter weather sets in. Electrical power in the Ukrainian capital is definitely not ensured during the cold seasons. So the outlook may be no water, no juice and no heat.
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 1 2024 15:04 utc | 32
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 1 2024 14:42 utc | 26
Maybe a map would help you to realize that the territory to protect is quite large.
Anyway, what do you say to the weekly fires / explosions at European strategic locations, in Germany at least two this week?
You should really learn to zoom out to get the bigger picture. If you are interested at all.
Posted by: Zet | Sep 1 2024 15:05 utc | 33
Posted by: Retired Morlock | Sep 1 2024 13:31 utc | 10
Depends if the Russians have the OMG (Operational Manoeuvre Group) card in their deck, and even if they do they need to put down a few more cards before they can play it successfully.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Sep 1 2024 13:44 utc | 14
The very fact defeat narratives are being constructed is suggestive that a phased pull-out is being considered or has already been initiated.
Posted by: Newbie | Sep 1 2024 13:47 utc | 17
‘It doesn’t add up’ is normally the point you challenge your preconceptions, unless your enemy is behaving irrationally, it obviously adds up for the enemy. Possibly it was an attempt to emulate the Zubrowski raid of 2014, but instead of deploying one brigade several would be, with multiple objectives, supported from a salient. Perhaps it was part of a coordinated attempt to capture a province and the city of Kursk. The only thing for certain is they amassed a considerable amount of combat power and opened a new front.
Posted by: OnceWere | Sep 1 2024 14:19 utc | 22
The Green New Deal certainly has, for the West.
Posted by: Milites | Sep 1 2024 15:11 utc | 34
The US just committed to providing 100 M113's and 100 M1A2 Bradleys to the Ukronazi army......
These units will never reach the front before the coming complete collapse of Ukronazi army.
The M113 APC's are completely obsolete Vietnam era units with 1" aluminum armor, easy work for RF Lancet and Kornet systems. These unit are tracked crematoriums. The Bradley's even though more modern are still not reliable in the modern conditions of the drone and helo and ATGM environment.
None of these vehicles will make one bit of difference to the coming May 1940 style Seine River collapse now pending for the Ukronazi forces......its over....they will be fleeing to their US funded dacha's in Haifa and Geneva and Nassau and Miami very soon with their stolen billions in scammed cash..........
Posted by: Tobias Cole | Sep 1 2024 15:14 utc | 35
If, within the next two months, a nuclear conflict erupts or if more Russian lives are lost, the full responsibility will rest on Mr. Putin. His failure to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control has brought us to the brink of catastrophe, where the conversation has shifted from discussions about F-16s to the alarming prospect of long-range missile strikes deep within Russian territory. The fact that we have reached this point is a sobering indictment of the choices made by the Russian leadership.
This is not just a failure of diplomacy; it is a profound dereliction of duty. The Russian government must be held accountable for its complacency and recklessness in allowing the situation to deteriorate to such a perilous state.
Posted by: Mr.A | Sep 1 2024 15:21 utc | 36
I’m waiting for Dima’s evening broadcast (Military Summary) to see if Vugledar has been finally taken by the Russians. Or if it will be yet another costly debacle. I suspect they’ve got a better chance of success this time.
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Sep 1 2024 15:22 utc | 37
🇷🇺🇺🇦The Most Massive Drone Attack by Ukrainian UAVs on Russian RegionsThis night, Ukrainian forces carried out a massive drone attack on Russian regions. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, 158 drones were intercepted in 16 regions, as well as over Moscow.
▪️The largest number of munitions was destroyed over the Kursk Region - 46 of them. The work of the Russian air defense forces was recorded throughout the night.
▪️No less than 34 Ukrainian drones were intercepted over the Bryansk Region. According to the governor Alexander Bogomaz, there were no casualties among the civilian population and no damage to infrastructure.
▪️14 drones were neutralized in the airspace of the Belgorod Region. At the same time, commercial facilities, private homes and civilian vehicles were damaged in Belgorod and the Belgorod District.
▪️In the Moscow Region and Moscow, a downed UAV fell on a technical building on the territory of the Moscow Oil Refinery in Kapotnya, causing a fire of about 40 square meters, which was extinguished. According to some reports, the Kashira GRES power plant was also attacked, but this has not been confirmed.
Also, according to preliminary information, the enemy tried to attack the Zhukovsky Airport. Temporary restrictions for flight safety were also introduced at the Vnukovo and Domodedovo airports, their operation was restored at 09:05.
▪️In the Tver Region, a fire broke out at the Konakovo GRES power plant after a drone strike, which was soon localized and extinguished. As reported by Governor Igor Rudenya, there were no casualties, electricity and gas supply in the district is carried out as usual.
▪️Air defense systems also worked in Yaroslavl, Voronezh, Ryazan, Kaluga, Tula, Tambov, Smolensk, Oryol and Ivanovo Regions, with no casualties reported. Only in the Tarnsky District of the Lipetsk Region was a cell tower damaged.
🔻The night attack by the AFU became the most massive since the start of the SMO. Once again, the main targets were fuel and energy facilities, where the enemy specifically developed entry routes from the least protected directions. But in this case, only a few UAVs reached their targets, while the rest were destroyed.
However, in the foreseeable future, the enemy's drone production rates will be even higher. And we need to be ready for this - if today the wave of drones on the capital was almost completely destroyed, this does not mean that tomorrow it will be exactly the same.
https://t.me/rybar_in_english/17395
Posted by: Down South | Sep 1 2024 15:25 utc | 38
The default is deepening Ukraine's budget deficit. If the country is short about $21 billion this year, which the authorities covered by borrowing, then next year the deficit, according to the most conservative estimates, will exceed $30 billion. Accordingly, taxes will be raised, including from businesses, and benefits and social programs will be cut.Experts note that tightening the tax screws and cutting social programs has never been and will never be an effective means not only for replenishing the budget or bringing the economy out of the shadows, but also for returning the same refugees. Before demanding that people "pay taxes here", it is necessary to create real conditions under which working in Ukraine will be a conscious choice. And tax pressure, not supported by real social guarantees and economic incentives, only exacerbates the problem.
Initially, the authorities should be concerned with creating a safe and stable environment where working citizens will be confident in the future, where they will be able not only to earn money, but also to see a future for their families. But no, the only thing on Bankova's agenda is war and further tightening of the screws on its own people and businesses. And such a policy in the long term will lead to even worse consequences for Ukraine, driving people into total poverty. That is, the authorities, in fact, are only intensifying the anti-people genocide.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/24190
Posted by: Down South | Sep 1 2024 15:29 utc | 39
Honzo@1328
Good points. My take is that the R.U. forces will cut-off and simply bypass Pokrovsk. Such troops as stuck there may be of two very separate entities. Some, the minority, will seek to cling like leeches and barnacles. The recent "additions" to the Ukie forces would be much happier to surrender en masse and save their lives. So there may be some major internal clashes while the engineers do their worst to degrade the infrastructure, particularly the coke industry.
The Piano Dick Tater in Kiev will be saddened to see the coke plants taken down...up until he's informed that NO, it's not THAT kinda coke.
After renewing Mariopol, restoration of Pokrovsk should be a piece of cake for Russian engineers and construction crews.
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 1 2024 15:32 utc | 40
Well...
It seems Putin might just need a one-way ticket out of power. He's gone ahead and handed the West everything it could ever dream of on a silver platter. And just like a spoiled child, the more you indulge the West, the more it demands. Who would've guessed?
Putin Out... and Medvedev or any hard core leader with bigger balls..In!
Posted by: Mr.A | Sep 1 2024 15:32 utc | 41
Naive@1359
With the possible exception of the concerned case of Hansen's disease; we are blessed today because it is the 4-day Long Weak-End in American Football mania. So excepting most of the inhabitants swinging between Trollhaugen and their cozy spot under the bridge; there are almost no designated victims of outraged sensibility.
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 1 2024 15:40 utc | 42
Former Ukrainian President (Zelensky) was offered a good and decent deal back in 2022 to allow country 404 (formerly know as Ukraine) to exist today. However, blackmailed took the best of him after obesse Johnson under instructions from the Pentagon in the US of A led neo-NAZI nato told him to continue fighting because 'our economies are utterly broken and the only way to get out this misserable situation is to sell weapons and fight until the last ukrainian'.
Posted by: AI | Sep 1 2024 15:44 utc | 43
Pokrovsk is more defendable than the villages that Russia has been taking lately.
1. Has very good supplies (roads, trains), from all directions. Russia is unlikely to surround it, unlikely to cut the supplies.
2. It has good prepared defenses.
3. Russia will be forced to move perpendicular to the defenses, which are semi-circular.
None of this is to say that the city won't fall. Just that it won't be the kind of cakewalk we have been seeing lately.
I wonder if Russia will wait for Pokrosvk until spring 2025. There is a lot of easier territory they can pick off in the south of the Ochertenye bloom, potentially down to Vuhledar.
Posted by: Anonymous | Sep 1 2024 15:51 utc | 44
DownSouth@1529
Interesting that "Rezident" is reporting how the fire-department will get new funding and organization in Kiev and elsewhere in the tottering Maidan regime. Meanwhile, Rome is on fire while the Kiev regime is fiddling away.
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 1 2024 15:52 utc | 45
Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 1 2024 13:03 utc | 378
This article is from Kiev Post. But actually does a good (outside of some slander) of describing situation and the varying options regarding the current contract:https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38180
“Around 42 million cubic metres is shipped daily via the Sudzha metering station -- the last open entry point for Russia gas heading into Ukraine.
****That route was brought into question earlier this month after Kyiv's forces captured it in a shock cross-border offensive. But shipments have continued.****(?)**
Since the explosions on the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022, Russia has limited options to increase supplies to Europe.”
this is simply CRAP
don't you want to learn anything ???
there are 2 !! entry points "... for Russia gas heading into Ukraine..."
the other one is Sokhranovka
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_transmission_system_of_Ukraine
ironically, the ukr declared ‘force majeure’ because it does not control the entire pipeline section
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-ukraine-will-not-reopen-gas-route-until-it-controls-transit-system-2022-05-12/
and last not least -- there is still ONE strand of the pipeline of Nord Stream2 intact
Posted by: ghiwen | Sep 1 2024 15:55 utc | 46
By the way, a very correct use of drones on fiber:1. Nothing else flies near the ground and the Ukrainians do not expect a strike from below.
2. Fiber unwinds better and does not get lost in the wind, for example.
Interesting infographics - the number of reviews of drone components on Chinese sites from Ukrainians is greater. From which the European author concludes that Ukrainian drones are numerically superior.In fact, the main suppliers of drones to the front in the Russian Federation do not stock up on Ali, but carry components in wagons through the green corridor (past customs) under the strict guidance of three-letter organizations.
Many parts of drones - frames, communications, net throwers - are completely produced in the Russian Federation from our raw materials, or raw materials not associated with drones.
Therefore, the infographics shows exactly what it shows - Ukrainians more often buy purely Chinese drones at exorbitant prices.
This is also evident from the wreckage of their FPV.
Continuing with the topic of purchases in China.Starting today, China is introducing a ban on the export of goods that can be used to produce drones, as well as the drones themselves that are heavier than 7 kg and can fly for more than 30 minutes, as well as purely military drones. And there will also be a ban on the export of communications equipment and electronic warfare devices that can be used at the front.
The microcircuits used in these devices are also subject to the ban.
In general, almost everything will be banned.Officially, this is supposedly a peaceful gesture, but we know that wagons have previously traveled to the Russian Federation without customs. They will continue to travel.
The blow to the Ukrainians is colossal, but it will affect us too: the Kulibins (ed: innovators) who stocked up on Alisha (ed: Ali Express?) and produced small batches of the necessary products will suffer.
Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 1 2024 15:55 utc | 47
AI@1544
Do you actually believe that Boris Ignorus Johnson was getting his marching orders from the Pentagram? Man, you are pretty dense regarding geopolitical reality. Boris was ordered to cut the negotiations from just a few miles from Whitehall. City of London calls the shots for the Pentagram and even for the Agency. No need to consider secondary enforcers. Boris got it right from the top of the financial scrotumpole.
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 1 2024 15:56 utc | 48
"After renewing Mariopol, restoration of Pokrovsk should be a piece of cake for Russian engineers and construction crews."
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 1 2024 15:32 utc | 39
My buddy has a company in Canada where he sell, internationally, expensive saws that cut with water. If one is cutting titanium for example for Space Ex (one of his customers)a one hundredth inch mistake ruins the whole piece-these saws, totally automated, sell for well over $1MM.
However, the pig iron (rudimentary iron slightly refined ) is done in Mariupol, from there it is sent to Germany which turns it into finished steel which, in turn, sends to Italy where they assemble the saws then they send them to California, Europe wherever. Then buddy get his 25% commission-but he has to pay for his travel, trade shows, currency risk et al.
So when the SMO began my buddy got supremely fucked-instead of 4 -5 month delivery it went to 18-20 months; the S and P companies that he sells to would not put up 25% up front for a 2 year delivery, so they put up 10% . The Italian company won't start production till they get 25% up front so buddy has to bridge loan (in Euros) the 15% to get it on the list.
I met him last week and he says it is down now it down to 12-14 months-I asked why.
"I don't ask questions apparently they have the plant going again in Mariupol"
I said, "what about the sanctions?"
He replied, "The company explained to me that the sanctions are against Russian exports- the German and Italian guvs don't recognize Mariupol as Russian territory its Ukrainian"
That's a real world anecdote take what you will from it.
Concerned anon2020@1551
There may well be a hole in your Swiss cheese. You contend that the Russians cannot surround Pokrovsk and cut it off from supplies. On what basis do you make this assertion? If Ukie forces are heavily constipated on holding the city and its immediate surrounds; how the HELL can they amass sufficient forces to prevent that sack being closed?
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 1 2024 16:01 utc | 50
Posted by: Mr.A | Sep 1 2024 15:21 utc | 35
-------------------------------------------------------------
You can't find any fault with Biden's failure to negotiate a reasonable security agreement that would work for everyone. Putin tried, and Biden said f**k you Putin, we will put NATO weapons on your border because we can; but you blame Putin. You will understand why I must say F**K off Troll.
Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 16:03 utc | 51
Anon2020@1555
Apologies for hitting the wrong key and posting 1601 instead of 15. That said, I do appreciate your posting on the Chinese allowing their common sense to overcome their merchandising greed by cutting off those drone components to the various enemies of humanity. Someone in a position of ultimate decision came to the understanding that geopolitical reality should trump mere marketing schemes.
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 1 2024 16:07 utc | 52
49:
Look at a map. Pokrovsk is just not in a salient and has a large areal extent.
Contemplating an encirclement of the city (to include the areas to the north and west) is dreaming. Like the Odessa dreamers who don't look at maps either!
Many areas to the south are much juicier in terms of allowing pincers to develop and/or trenches to be outflanked or attacked in reverse direction.
Posted by: Anonymous | Sep 1 2024 16:07 utc | 53
Pokrovsk.
Apparently about 53 % of the civilian inhabitants have refused to leave. Presumably they will get a better deal from the Russians than the Ukies. No forced "conscription" with a gunman behind, most speak Russian anyway. Obviously it is better to be taken over by the Russians to stay alive.
I wonder how many other villages and cities are also going effectively Pro-Russia? Better pensions, more jobs perhaps. Better social and health services etc.
This realization about what the ultimate outcome of the disastrous war being carried on by Zele will be, may be behind some of the more accurate targeting of Ukie troops. The Azov, who took over a sports building (to hide in or reform?) in Kharkov, got hit almost immediately. Probably from a tip-off?
Interesting details from Pokrovsk. Ukrainian channels write about traffic jams in the direction of the city. They go not only to Pokrovsk, but also to Mirnograd and Selidovo. Civilians are waiting for the arrival of the Russian Armed Forces and, given the almost "painless" transition of territories under the control of the Russian Army, they want to return to Russia in this way.
https://voenhronika.ru/
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 1 2024 16:16 utc | 55
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 1 2024 14:42 utc | 26
If you read the right propaganda there is a big fire in Moscow refinery, others may read that a fire of 40m2 has been already extinguished.
Time will tell but given the past I put my 2 cents on the second version.
Posted by: Mario | Sep 1 2024 16:17 utc | 56
I wonder if Russia will wait for Pokrosvk until spring 2025. There is a lot of easier territory they can pick off in the south of the Ochertenye bloom, potentially down to Vuhledar.Posted by: Anonymous | Sep 1 2024 15:51 utc | 43
I can't see Russia waiting until spring 2025, but I can see it taking until then to capture Prokrovsk. Assuming Ukraine decides to fight for the town I can see it turning into Russia's winter project, a six month long slog to capture the city that doesn't complete until March/April 2025 time frame.
We won't see an encirclement of Pokrovsk. We'll probably see a 3-sided squeeze though, with the Russians attempting to push west, north and south of the town.
Posted by: Mike314159 | Sep 1 2024 16:19 utc | 57
‘It doesn’t add up’ is normally the point you challenge your preconceptions, unless your enemy is behaving irrationally, it obviously adds up for the enemy. Possibly it was an attempt to emulate the Zubrowski raid of 2014, but instead of deploying one brigade several would be, with multiple objectives, supported from a salient. Perhaps it was part of a coordinated attempt to capture a province and the city of Kursk. The only thing for certain is they amassed a considerable amount of combat power and opened a new front.
Posted by: Milites | Sep 1 2024 15:11 utc | 33
I meant it doesn’t add up to a decoy for a full retreat.
Posted by: Newbie | Sep 1 2024 16:27 utc | 58
one really has to wonder why "ukraine" is so adamant on attacking russian refineries.
its almost as if they dont want any oil to go to the remaining continental europe. i wonder who would profit from that...
but the cucks in the eu will take it gladly, dry.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Sep 1 2024 16:40 utc | 59
Urban [email protected] payload. I don't know the payload, tiny or otherwise, I do know there is a rather large fire at an oil refinery somewhere near Moscow, too lazy to look it up for you but you can find it, and a high rise building, on fire, fire fighters are still there
Impressive for a tiny payload, yes? Truth like propaganda, we don't really know the extent of the damage. We do know that as everyday of the SlogMow processes, while Russia attrites Ukie (how many now, it'll end soon, right?) forces, some NATO too, day in, day out as long as it lasts, swarms of little drones with tiny payload will visit and tour much of Russia. Of course should 404 Ukie get, longer distance, bigger payload, bigger drones......all bets are off.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 1 2024 14:42 utc | 26
With urban on this. You're decrying Russia's weakness, but relative to what: Superman? Russia's weaknesses should be compared to its opponent on the ground, Ukraine, which is in total disarray.
So, yeah, Russia isn't a comic book hero that can simply crush a NATO armed Ukraine with its x-ray eyes. So what?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 1 2024 16:40 utc | 60
Povrosk is a good place to concentrate ukrainian forces for attrition. Ukraine basically opened the gates to encourage Russia to rush in and get ambushed. The missing reserves were actually accumulating in povrosk as its the logistic central node.
Securing a buffer for donetsk was stated as a priority some time ago, as it was the reason for storming adivika so persistently.
Russia just needs to cut the supply lines from povrosk to secure south eastern ukraine.
After this is done Russia can focus on making the northern buffer zone which I assume will be the next priority goal.
After that they will have multiple options.
As for ukraine I think they will want to make another dash for crimea, probably through kherson as they've started testing there again to see what's what.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 1 2024 16:41 utc | 61
Good HL video about recent RFA campaign towards Pokrovsk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eANJw2r4rQg
Note that he also sees RFA turning to the south for now.
Posted by: Anonymous | Sep 1 2024 16:42 utc | 62
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 1 2024 15:56 utc | 47
""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""
Let me guess. A 'little' sailing fish boat with six (6) nazi mixed-race ukrainians divers on board blew up three (3) streams from the NS and NS2 pipelines. I bet you will confirm, swallow and digest that story too!
The attack on Russia via country 404 is being in the making at the Pentagon via the 'agency' for the last ten (10) years if not longer.
A ppt no longer than 5 pages long reveals the plan and strategy for your information.
Whitehall and the City of London are just a facilitator in Europe.
Posted by: AI | Sep 1 2024 16:42 utc | 63
Posted by: Ed | Sep 1 2024 16:03 utc | 50
Oh, you’re really going to drag old Joe "Ice Cream" Biden into this? As if he’s been making decisions between his next scoop of chocolate chip. Sure, let’s pretend he’s calling the shots here.
Meanwhile, Putin decided to take the brawl to his own backyard, and surprise, surprise—Russia keeps getting smacked around like a piñata at a kid’s party. But hey, don’t go blaming the West for that one.
Call it what you want, but the real issue here is Putin's chronic case of no-balls syndrome.
Posted by: Mr.A | Sep 1 2024 16:46 utc | 64
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 1 2024 16:07 utc | 51
No worries.
Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 1 2024 16:49 utc | 65
Germany's Krupp. Another casualty of war.
But it seems that the crisis of the German industry has reached ThyssenKrupp. The giant and pride of German industry on the stock exchange is now negative value. Shares are sold for less than face value, which means that they are somewhere near the status of junk, and investors simply do not believe in the future of the company. And they have every reason to do so.ThyssenKrupp is one of those companies that is critically dependent on energy and raw material prices. For many decades, there were no problems with this, thanks to supplies from Russia....
...This means that thousands of the company's employees may soon lose their jobs. There is already a tsunami of layoffs in Germany, but the ThyssenKrupp story is a landmark one, because the company was almost a symbol of Germany's industrial power. A power that turns into infirmity.
https://t.me/golosmordora/40524
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 1 2024 16:50 utc | 66
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 1 2024 16:50 utc | 66
Thank you...
Posted by: Mr.A | Sep 1 2024 16:52 utc | 68
Dumb Ukraine proxy war continues to backfire... US farmers probably didn't imagine their China grain sales would be replaced by Russian sources."Russia and China are developing a transnational grains corridor, connecting Russia's enormous agricultural production to export markets in China, South Asia, and the Middle East. When complete, Russian production and shipments on this network will exceed 8 million tons per year.
China is the world's largest importer of wheat and grains, and in 2023 imported over 6 million tons of wheat from the United States, Canada, Australia, and France."
https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1829900615356469378
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 1 2024 16:53 utc | 69
The missing reserves were actually accumulating in povrosk as its the logistic central node.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 1 2024 16:41 utc | 60
---
The logistic value of Pokrovsk will be a net negative as soon as the Russians are within artillery range. They don't have to capture the city to spoil Ukraine's logistics in the East.
Posted by: too scents | Sep 1 2024 17:00 utc | 70
Tobias Cole @ 34
The M113 APC's are completely obsolete Vietnam era units with 1" aluminum armor
Remember nothing here is being given away, Ukraine is great way to sell off 70ys of obsolete, rotten, or never-functional junk, latter is what the Javelins were. Someone is footing the bill at what I bet is close to retail. With that money Pentagon and NATO have a nice down payment for shiny new, futuristic - obsolete, rotten, and non-functional junk, though IMO most of the money will simply be stolen in a cash grab of grift and graft.
With Ukraine faltering the incentive to dump more junk goes up not down. Last call for the junk wagon passing through town. "Ding ding, bring out your junk, bring out your junk!"
I never understood the logic of aluminum armor, even trying out some sort convoluted military logic. You can cut aluminum with wood tools, jigsaw with a wood blade and router with a wood bit, instead of bending like steel, the cast stuff fractures or snaps off. Except for very few exotics it's not even used for car bodies because it's unsafe and more trouble than it's worth.
I'm sure a bullet would go right through an M113, and yes at a high enough temperature it burns! I know it's light but so is balsa wood, maybe some can explain the logic of aluminum armor?
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2024 17:00 utc | 71
"How does the UAF still have enough fuel to move troops around?"
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Sep 1 2024 13:36 utc | 11
It's a one-way trip. It saves a lot of fuel.
I haven't heard reports of shortages yet.
Good question.
Posted by: David G Horsman | Sep 1 2024 17:01 utc | 72
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 1 2024 16:53 utc | 68
Read just last week or so that Iran had a bumper wheat crop this year as well.
Is there anything left that the west can produce that can't be found in the row?
At least the BS is Piled High & Deep. Some day will make good compost...
Quick...spend your dollars while still buy something!
Posted by: Mary | Sep 1 2024 17:07 utc | 73
the de-industrialization of Germany is a joy to behold.
Posted by: g wiltek | Sep 1 2024 17:08 utc | 74
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 1 2024 14:33 utc | 23
[email protected] RF has stopped publishing it's energy exports. Like two weeks ago, hmm......why? All numbers are manipulable, even Russia's. All information floats in the propaganda chamber, yours, their's, mine, and everyone else's. Except at MOA, war? What war? Russia won back in Feb, 2020, the last three years have been a mop up operation. Well if you read the right propaganda.
superficial crap
29 May 2024
https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/102785/
Russia stops publishing data on gasoline production - Energy Ministry
29 Aug 2024
https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/105511/
Russia completely stops disclosing data on oil product production
maths is not his strength either
some additional links:
- August 16, 2024 --> Russian fuel exports to Asia via Africa reach record volumes in July
https://www.intellinews.com/russian-fuel-exports-to-asia-via-africa-reach-record-volumes-in-july-338968/?source=sub-sahara-africa
- June 27, 2024 --> Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries have done little damage to Russia’s economy so far
https://www.intellinews.com/ukraine-s-attacks-on-russian-oil-refineries-have-done-little-damage-to-russia-s-economy-so-far-331323/
- June 12, 2024 --> KSE: Damages to Ukraine’s energy sector exceeded $56bn
https://www.intellinews.com/kse-damages-to-ukraine-s-energy-sector-exceeded-56bn-329511/
Posted by: ghiwen | Sep 1 2024 17:10 utc | 75
@71
"How does the UAF still have enough fuel to move troops around?"
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Sep 1 2024 13:36 utc | 11
It's a one-way trip. It saves a lot of fuel.
I haven't heard reports of shortages yet.
Good question."
Fuels are supplied for free in any necessary amounts from the west. There will always be enough fuel sent to keep the war going as that's a western priority. They can source it from the global market.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 1 2024 17:11 utc | 76
@69 two scents.
That's my assessment as well, nonetheless from the western viewpoint ukrainian losses are of no concern as they are set to to be spent no matter what or where. As long as it keeps costing russia.
From the ukrainian viewpoint? Well they made a deal with the devil they don't get choices anymore.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 1 2024 17:15 utc | 77
Milites @ 33
Perhaps it was part of a coordinated attempt to capture a province and the city of Kursk. The only thing for certain is they amassed a considerable amount of combat power and opened a new front.
You know what just occurred to me, someone sure misread Kursk, and I don't mean Gerasamov, or the RuMoD heads for the Sumy/Kursk, or civilian Belousov, or Putin, I mean Ukie intelligence is a lot worse than Ruskie intelligence, or the planners, USA/UK simply ignored the intelligence. The Russians had thin forces in the area but what they had were expert and seasoned, and had just what they needed at hand, lots of drones.
It seems that as much as Russia got some things wrong in Kursk, AFU got it all wrong. I say it seems as it's possible they still have something up their sleeve, Kherson spit and islands or Zaporizhzhia attack and Kursk is part of something larger.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2024 17:15 utc | 78
Alex Christoforou on yesterday's Youtube Locals reported that two Colombian mercenaries, rturning from The Ukraine, were arrested at Venezuela's airport and returned to Moscow into the custody of the FSB. So close, yet so far.
Posted by: horseguards | Sep 1 2024 17:19 utc | 79
[email protected] done little damage...'so far', it's a SloMow, no rush....there is not much left to blow up in Britkrainia, makes the big juicy targets in Russia more fun for Whitehall to destroy.....you do see the irony. As I stated no need to take or hold land when drone swarms and missile saturation are the new norm, on both sides. Unless you need a buffer zone.....hmm, all the way to the Polish border.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 1 2024 17:20 utc | 80
https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/26004
Forwarded from Time_of_Tremor✅It's nice to return to familiar places to work with old friends.
🌍Zaporizhzhya direction.
During our long absence, the situation has acquired a new look:
🪂Quite a decent advance thanks to successful offensive actions by the fraternal paratrooper unit.Literally yesterday morning, one of the enemy's key positions was taken under control. In addition, three Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers were captured.
⏺The enemy artillery is working much more passively, but there is no reason to relax.
⏺The enemy actively uses FPV drones, and it is worth noting that there are plenty of night-time models. Aggro drones like Baba Yaga stably fly every night. It cannot be said that the enemy is limited in them. It is good that the allies are not afraid of them, but are actively fighting, shooting down "flying tanks".Movement at night should be limited as much as possible.
⏺All kinds of remote mining are present.
⏺There is an assumption that the enemy will attempt a breakthrough in some areas. This idea is prompted by the active accumulation of up to 37 units of equipment in one of the populated areas.✅We can confidently say that at the moment we have set out to work, having previously established interaction with neighboring units. The priority is approaches and timely detection of equipment and manpower on distant approaches. Along the way, in readiness to meet enemy agrodrones, organizing PN.
Weather conditions cause great inconvenience during daytime flights: a strong gusty crosswind of up to 18 m/s makes its own adjustments.
Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 1 2024 17:22 utc | 81
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Sep 1 2024 13:12 utc | 1
A number of colombians were injured.
Posted by: horseguards | Sep 1 2024 17:22 utc | 82
🇺🇦 "This Svitan is broken, bring the next one" 🤷♂️The "talking head" of the single-air program, retired colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military expert Roman Svitan, seems to have taken a "truth serum", and on "Channel 24" he said that Zelensky's team has turned Pokrovsk and the country "into a colony, a punishment cell and a concentration camp for absolutely all men", from which it is impossible to leave. And he called for a change in the executive power!
To the host's questions about why a city of 40,000, in which there are 2,000 children, 10 km from the front, is trying to live a peaceful life, and the local government announces that banks there will stop working from Monday, Svitan said that:
✅ in frontline cities - it is impossible to leave, there is a terrible situation, where Ukrainians are better off waiting for the arrival of the Russian army than being mobilized through the TCC;
✅ military registration and enlistment offices under Umerov's leadership have organized a bunch of checkpoints when leaving populated areas (first of all, we are talking about Pokrovsk). At the same time, men are given summonses even when they take their children, their families and elderly relatives, sending them to the front. That is, it is impossible for the civilian population to evacuate normally; people are afraid of being left without the head of the family;
✅ people, left without shelter, have nowhere to evacuate, they have no money, and compatriots in other cities have raised prices for renting apartments;
✅ the state does not help in any way, it creates a punishment cell, a concentration camp, from which it is impossible to leave; both the police and the TCC workers are trying to cut money when leaving, there is "another rip-off of people with a big bribe";
✅ TCC workers share with the Ministry of Defense, while Umerov needs to somehow support his family in the USA;
✅ The residents of Donbass are being destroyed by non-Ukrainian authorities, their task is to surrender the territories, collect money from the residents and run away with passports of other countries. Many of those in power have passports of other countries, and then it will turn out that a politician with an Israeli passport has been pursuing a pro-Israeli policy for these 5 years (Svitan's hint is obvious);
✅ This is precisely why the authorities are promoting the law on multiple citizenships;
✅ Ukrainians can change the non-Ukrainian government - but the executive, not the political one - Svitan claims. The government of the Umerovs, Yermaks, ambassadors and others - it's time for the people to initiate a change of the lying and thieving executive power, with passports of other countries. They do not work for Ukraine, they have already "overstayed their welcome". It's time to replace them with professionals, qualified professionals, preferably military men, - the expert says.The SBU is due to arrive in 3, 2, 1…
https://t.me/ZeRada1/21300
Posted by: Down South | Sep 1 2024 17:22 utc | 83
I see we are back to the nuke obsession. I don't want to be left out, so here's mine:
If Putin doesn't win today, Ukrainian soldiers will be throwing NUCLEAR HAND GRENADES.
If Putin doesn't win by tomorrow morning, Ukrainian tourists will have NUCLEAR SUITCASES.
If Putin doesn't win by next week, the Ukrainian army will be firing NUCLEAR ARTILLERY.
If Putin doesn't win by November, Ukrainians will get FLYING NUCLEAR BATTLESHIPS.
Come on everyone, don't let Mr.A be the only over the top CIA troll on MoA. We all can do it!
Posted by: Nobody Special | Sep 1 2024 17:26 utc | 84
Peter AU1 @ 68
It's not just loss of revenue and markets, it's loss of power and control. The USA and Europe controlled the world from the colonial era throughout the cold war by controlling food and fuel, starve directly or grind to halt and starve. Throughout the last 80ys all the famines that moved honest western citizens to generosity and tears were all orchestrated by their western leaders. All should never have happened, all could have been avoided, but then what would have financed the American Dream and the post war European miracle?
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 1 2024 17:32 utc | 85
"Dima has theorized that the next step for the Russians is going to be a quick dash for the Dneiper. I don't think so."
That's the best idea. Build up forces to the south of Pokrovsk as is expected to take that city. Then dash southwest to the Dnieper just two hours away with massive air support and maybe helo forces to seize a big bridge. This would trap some 50,000 Uke soldiers to the south on the wrong side of the river, and there will likely be little resistance on the other side of the river causing panic in Kiev.
Posted by: Carlton Meyer | Sep 1 2024 17:32 utc | 86
It was back when Russian Mod daily numbers were under a thousand that the top general said they needed 20,000 new recruits per month and an MP I think said 30,000. They were struggling to get those numbers. Now with the Russian MoD consistently reporting over 2,000, Ukraine requires at least 60,000 recruits per month.
Say 30,000 pulled from the other fronts for the Kursk operation and the eastern front starts to collapse.
Its a bit hard to see Ukraine getting even 30,000 recruits per month now which would leave them 30,000 short per month.
And those that do arrive at the front, many complaints of them being unmotivated, not to mention lack of training.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 1 2024 17:32 utc | 87
The price of Ukrainian weapons: how the government shifts budget problems to manufacturersThe public discussion about the search by the Cabinet of Ministers for additional funding for the defense sector is taking place against the background of numerous statements by high-ranking officials about the priority of the domestic military-industrial complex (MIC) and its development.
Speaking during a large forum with the participation of the state leadership on August 27, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal focused on the success of the domestic military-industrial complex and on the steps taken by the government to support it: "we finance together with partners in the purchase of Ukrainian manufacturers. We can talk about hundreds of billions of hryvnias. Today we really have Ukrainian weapons of Victory in all areas: from Ukrainian artillery to exclusively Ukrainian drones. And we are continuing this work ."
He also said that the budget separately includes funds for supporting and reorganizing production in the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, as well as for purchasing products from Ukrainian manufacturers.
Statements about the priority of domestic producers were repeatedly made by the heads of the Ministry of Strategic Industry and the Ministry of Defense. The head of the Defense Procurement Agency, Marina Bezrukova, said in an interview with Forbes that by the end of the year , contracts for the purchase of weapons worth UAH 237 billion have already been signed. 70% of the amount of all agreements that the agency concluded in 2024 fall on domestic manufacturers of weapons, ammunition and military equipment.
However, against the background of positive reports of officials, the real situation with the financing of the defense sector remains out of sight, which today is quite difficult and can lead to serious negative consequences both for the military-industrial complex itself and, most importantly, for the country's defense capability.
First, about long-term (three-year) contracts, which have been discussed so much at all levels and which manufacturers really need. As of today, none of the concluded three-year contracts have been funded .
In fact, these documents are nothing more than a piece of paper in the current conditions, because they are all concluded without taking financial obligations. According to the current legislation, financial obligations cannot be assumed for 2-3 years, but only within the current budget.
That is, the topic of long-term contracts for the defense industry is just PR . Moreover, as of today, there is no indication that anyone is going to launch this mechanism. After all, in order for long-term contracts to work, it is necessary to make changes to legislation and regulations. These changes are not even discussed now.
Secondly, against the background of the budget deficit, the Cabinet of Ministers laid a" time bomb", which is about to explode, under the defense industry. Regular changes in the regulatory framework for the payment of supply remuneration have actually created conditions when the government shifts the problems of budget deficits in settlements with suppliers and manufacturers of weapons and military equipment to the shoulders of manufacturers.
So, in the winter of 2024, the Cabinet of Ministers, at the initiative of the Ministry of Economy, amended Resolution 1275, which changed the current procedure for receiving supply remuneration. According to the new rules, according to the customer, supply remuneration - the profit of enterprises that are producers or suppliers-is paid only after all the conditions of the state contract are fulfilled.
Previously, the manufacturer had the opportunity to deliver products in pairs and receive funds in parts, that is, shipped 10 out of 100 contracted units of production – received funds, received a profit that can be used in operating activities, spent on new developments, development, and modernization of production. Currently, the company receives these funds only after the shipment of the entire volume of contracted products. Since all production contracts are long – term-a year or more- the manufacturer will be able to receive funds only at the end of the contract . In the absence of other sources of funds for defense enterprises, because there is only one customer-the State, this leads not only to the stagnation of existing large enterprises (primarily private ones), but also to the knocking out of small manufacturers with innovative products.
The same situation applies to deliveries. An enterprise that enters into a contract for the supply of a particular product receives funds only for the purchase of foreign currency, a partial subscription in the amount of 50%, and its supply reward, which is 3% of the total contract value, will receive only when it has fully shipped the entire volume under this contract. For your understanding, such contracts are designed for 7-12 months and deliveries are carried out in pairs. That is, in fact, the company operates for a year without operating funds.
As a result, we have a situation where the state compensates for the lack of budget funds at the expense of producers or suppliers by washing out the working capital of enterprises without fully financing them.
A similar problem, which creates an additional financial burden on suppliers, exists in the issue of compensation for exchange differences. Now, due to a sharp increase in the foreign exchange rate, enterprises are faced with the fact that the estimated cost of the contract is significantly different from the real one. So, for example, the calculation of the cost of products under the contract a few months ago was made at one rate, say 42 hryvnia per euro, and today the euro is already 46 hryvnia. You can only review this price-adjust it according to the current exchange rate-based on actual costs. The exchange rate difference is returned to the company only after all products have been delivered and the final price of these products has been deduced. In various cases, tens of millions of working capital of enterprises are frozen for 10-12 months, that is, in fact, enterprises calmly lend to the state at the expense of funds that should go to development.
Also, there is a situation in which if the company does not have free working capital, it cannot fulfill the contract and eventually disrupts deliveries for the Defense Forces.
All this complex of problems creates a huge burden on defense enterprises and can have extremely negative consequences.
First, sooner or later, both public and private companies will not be able to ensure the fulfillment of contracts, they simply will not have enough margin of safety. In fact, even now, using the non-market mechanisms for regulating activities introduced in the regulatory framework, the Defense Procurement Agency creates artificial advantages for itself, cutting off other Ukrainian companies from deliveries. This is a direct path to the destruction of competition, creating a monopoly position for the agency and lack of control in its activities. And, as you know, the monopoly opens the way to corruption schemes and rising prices for products.
Secondly, in the long run, such a situation will necessarily result in a decrease in the volume of imported products, and for manufacturers – a decrease in production volumes due to the lack of working capital, as a result – a decrease in budget revenues, loss of qualified specialists, lack of new developments and development.
***
The domestic military-industrial complex has been developing rapidly during the war years and provides large contributions to the budget. It so happened that in the conditions of the ban on the export of weapons and military equipment, domestic producers are locked in state suppliers. In addition, the country still does not have any credit programs for military-industrial enterprises. And even in such conditions, without any state support, private defense enterprises show tremendous growth, launch new production facilities, develop modern weapons, produce and supply them to the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
No one asks for support from the state, only fair rules are needed.
Vladislav Belbas , General Director of Ukrainian Armored Vehicles LLC
https://www.pravda.com.ua/columns/2024/08/30/7472639/ (will need a translation add-on.)
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 1 2024 17:38 utc | 88
"Germany's Krupp. Another casualty of war.
But it seems that the crisis of the German industry has reached ThyssenKrupp. The giant and pride of German industry on the stock exchange is now negative value."
Europe is in its third year of economic decline and America's NATO vassal states are starting to rebel, starting with Hungary. It is trapped, but if Russian forces reach Ukraine's western border, Hungary and others will leave the EU and its dictates for sanctions on Russia and China and open borders. Here is a short video about this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDBfoA-LZmY
Posted by: Carlton Meyer | Sep 1 2024 17:40 utc | 89
Anon@1607
Maps. I do look at them and have studied geography since childhood. The element in my 'surround Pokrovsk' which you did not rebut is the fact that geography means very little when a military force is not only heavily outnumbered, with no prospect of reinforcements AND is outgunned, out bombarded with artillery, rocketry and missiles; has a disintegrating logistics trail and is itself rapidly falling apart at the seams, how is it possible that they can stem the Red Tide from surrounding Pokrovsk?
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 1 2024 17:44 utc | 90
I look forward to the written history of the Retreat from Kursk with the big arrow flaming them from the rear as they get bombed on the way to the next front! It’s going to be blood thirstier. Double current daily losses?
Posted by: DunGroanin | Sep 1 2024 17:47 utc | 91
Posted by: g wiltek | Sep 1 2024 17:08 utc | 73
Next will be the de-Nazification.
Posted by: horseguards | Sep 1 2024 17:49 utc | 92
Posted by: Down South | Sep 1 2024 17:22 utc | 82
This is how mutiny begins. The old man can afford to take risks, he's going to die soon anyway and has little to lose. The crafty politicians are waiting silently while sharpening knives. All they need is a brigade commander to provide muscle and pretty soon it's a mad dash of angry troops heading for the Dnieper and shooting any generals who get in their way.
Dnieper then becomes the natural line of defense and Zelensky will no longer be there to screw things up but rather command goes to the most fanatic, battle hardened, competent brigade commander around, based on vote of the committed troops. Russia will not have am easy time crossing the Dnieper unless USA and EU completely abandon Ukraine, which is unlikely, because those fanatics can threaten terrorism against USA and EU. And unlike Zelensky, they are ready to die and will not be deterred by CIA/MI6 threats. Rather, CIA/MI6 are who will be pissing in fear.
Then war goes on for several more years of attrition.
Posted by: anonposter | Sep 1 2024 17:50 utc | 93
China refusing to export related parts and military drones explicitly is a very subtle form of asymmetric warfare.
From my point of view this has huge implications. Particularly if it were expanded. And while it immediately effects Ukraine it will also effect NATO countries.
Posted by: David G Horsman | Sep 1 2024 18:00 utc | 94
About Germany. the AfD made great scores in two regional elections this Sunday: one first place and one second place.
The AfD opposes weapons delivery to the ukronazis, right?
Posted by: Naive | Sep 1 2024 18:00 utc | 95
He replied, "The company explained to me that the sanctions are against Russian exports- the German and Italian guvs don't recognize Mariupol as Russian territory its Ukrainian"
That's a real world anecdote take what you will from it.
Posted by: canuck | Sep 1 2024 15:57 utc | 48
========================
Bureaucrats are simply amazing aren‘t they. 🤣
BTW - your buddy was wise to keep same supplier for the pig iron. Despite the travails. Major respect from me. Pigs are shockingly different from different sources despite all the lab testing in the world showing their are the exact same metal. (Tell him from someone whose been there tried that)
BTW - his water jet tolerances are likely 1000th of an inch ( not 100th 🤣)
Posted by: Exile | Sep 1 2024 18:02 utc | 96
The west's Russophobic jihad in Ukraine has cost it its ENTIRE CAR INDUSTRY.
You heard that right.
It's called opportunity cost.
So when you pay for war its all those other things you could have paid for instead, but didn't.
Electric Viking shows how China's BYD has now become the third largest car maker in the world.
https://youtu.be/iKXAYMjeFyg?si=6rLhDhh0wmlL59un
And BYD only made electric cars.
So while the west is burying money and people in Ukraine, China is cleaning up industry after industry.
While the investment-starved (gone to Ukraine) west falls hopelessly behind.
(Couldn't happen to nicer people.)
The EU's bouffant fraulein Von der Leyen has to be wheeled out to hector all of white Europe's racial enemies in her steely dominatrix voice against the sins of "over-production", "overproduction" and also of subsidy.
With a waiting list of weeks for every car BYD make, how is this "over-production"??
Total hypocricy as usual, all the west does is subsidise its own flagship industries.
Except when its at war in Ukraine, that is.
So in short, while China has invested in making its EV industry successful, and other industries too,
the EU has not, sending the money it could have invested in EV and other technology research, to Ukraine.
Ironically while the west did most of the preaching a about climate change and the need for electric cars and renewable technology,
It is China who have succeeded at this, with 55% of new car sales in China now all-electric.
And, apart from Tesla, all-Chinese.
Traditional western car-makers like GM, Toyota, Nissan, VW, etc.., face EXTINCTION in China.
And for that reason, extinction everywhere.
Ironically while China and the rest of the healthy normal world embrace EVs and BYD now sell massively in Brazil, Middle East etc,
The west, despite its endless preaching about the environment and CO2 etc.,
are backsliding on clean eneergy and electric cars. Bigtime.
Westerners have now decided that given the choice between saving the planet and going over to EVs,
or saying "f**k the planet" and choosing instead race wars against China and Russia,
well - which choice they made is a question that answers itself.
So now the infinitely hypocritical west are hilariously rowing back all their environmental commitments about electrification of cars.
They're saying "weeeell - yes we did say that but killing Russians and Chinese is much more fun,so f**k the planet".
So all the EV targets are being kicked down the road.
Ford just announced they will only make hybrids and are withdrawing completely from EVs.
But with big advances in electric battery technology in the pipeline, tripling the range and reducing fire risk,
the car future really is electric and companies with no EVs have no future in automobiles.
At least Ford know when to leave a war they cant win.
The pointless journey of Nazi-cheeks Jake Reinhard Heidrich Sullivan to China only underlines that the west conga-ing humiliatingly behind the USA
are incapable of reversing from an essentially suicidal race war against both Russia and China.
Maybe with Iran, North Korea and Venezuela, and maybe others, thrown in.
Our car industry was nice while it lasted.
There will always be a small local cottage industry market for enthusiasts who like to drive petrol cars.
Just like there's a cottage industry for reinacters of wars of independence or of the middle ages.
They can reinact the Ukraine was as well if they can find time between planting potatoes and washing clothes by hand.
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Sep 1 2024 18:02 utc | 97
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Sep 1 2024 16:41 utc | 60
It appears that Ukrainian army is running away not staying for defense/attrition.
Posted by: Mario | Sep 1 2024 18:02 utc | 98
China refusing to export related parts and military drones explicitly is a very subtle form of asymmetric warfare.
Posted by: David G Horsman | Sep 1 2024 18:00 utc | 93
---
First the price of 18650 Lion cells fell like a stone. Then export barriers were put in place. Drones are whipsawing the e-bike market.
Posted by: too scents | Sep 1 2024 18:05 utc | 99
Re: German provincial elections
3 parties are anti-war; the AFD. BSW, and Die Linke
The anti-war parties tally
52% Saxony
59% Thurigen
Posted by: Exile | Sep 1 2024 18:09 utc | 100
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