The world began dedollarizing due to sanctions. US tries to fight dedollarization with more sanctions... throwing petrol on the fire thinking that will put it out. Biden not fit for trial Due to mental incapacity. When was that? A year ago? Dumbocracy.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 8 2024 12:11 utc | 1

The subject of Ukraine's supposed mineral wealth keeps coming up in the past week. It seems a bit ridiculous to me.

Coal? Coke? Iron and steel? The global economy doesn't look very good right now and China needs to export materials amidst weakening demand. Also, EU wants coal to go away.

Lithium? Good Luck. Researchers are working feverishly to create better batteries that bypass this mineral.
Opening new mines tends to be a horrid investment in which huge sums get invested with losses for many years - a value trap that requires great patience - and then we have the topic of Who's Left Alive to work the mines after this war? I say this topic is just more bullsh*t dredged up to fend off fading support for Ukraine

Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 8 2024 12:17 utc | 2

Did I say all that?” Yahweh said, the buzzing suddenly getting quieter…almost like a low hum. ... <

Use as open (not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine) thread ...

Posted by b on September 8, 2024 at 11:54 UTC | Permalink

They might not be trillions, but they sure can make a mess.

Always glad to see you back and wishing you all the best.

Posted by: Newbie | Sep 8 2024 12:19 utc | 3

Old testament eh, such a waste, and still today it's trotted out, fills volumes, even here, the dead bodies piled high behind it.....they are all murdering, me was here first cults, (can I get an n for and l) just ask YMCA, he told me, I wrote it down, see, look here, Me First.

Old testament death cult.....2000 years, death death death, see: YMCA told me we was foist......I tells ya!

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 8 2024 12:32 utc | 4

Old testament eh, such a waste, and still today it's trotted out, fills volumes, even here, the dead bodies piled high behind it.....they are all murdering, me was here first cults, (can I get an n for and l) just ask YMCA, he told me, I wrote it down, see, look here, Me First.

Old testament death cult.....2000 years, death death death, see: YMCA told me we was foist......I tells ya!

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 8 2024 12:32 utc | 5

“Did I say all that?” Yahweh said, the buzzing suddenly getting quieter…almost like a low hum. ...

Darn it, now I shall have to re-read Sir pTerry’s Small Gods...

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 8 2024 12:34 utc | 6

Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 8 2024 12:17 utc | 2

You are behind the trends-the mid to late 2020's will mirror the commodity boom of the mid to late seventies.

Buy mining companies as commodity prices ramp up as fiat currencies devalue.

China has a savings rate of roughly 40% , US has a savings rate of 3.4%. China can ramp up consumer spending domestically and doesn't need exports as they have been less and less of GDP inputs over the past decade..

Posted by: canuck | Sep 8 2024 12:41 utc | 7

"The world began dedollarizing due to sanctions. US tries to fight dedollarization with more sanctions... "

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 8 2024 12:11 utc | 1

Not correct.

The dollar share of FX reserves was 74% in 2000; in 2010 it was 65% -way before major sanctions in 2014.

Sanctions haven't helped the dollar as a reserve currency but the trend was already there before sanctions.

Now the dollar share of FX reserves is 58%- ie. the downswing trend line has kept the same curve since 2000. (1)

1. https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/06/11/dollar-dominance-in-the-international-reserve-system-an-update

Posted by: canuck | Sep 8 2024 12:49 utc | 8

"the American empire, however, are not soldiers but capitalists."
Capitalism is a perversion. Free Market Capitalism requires money/currency to trade and account. Therein is the seed of Monopolies, especially Monopolies in Finance/Banking.
Even old money-grubber Warren Buffet has always made it clear. He will only invest in a business that has effective Monopoly control of its market or in a market where there is only 2 or 3 dominant players where they can carefully monitor each other.
America is a Totalitarian State, obvious to an outsider, carefully constrained and white-washed inside the walls of the U.S. Empire.
The 81 million votes/ballots and the stall of the count that brought known Grifter Biden as the U.S. figurehead and the hook-off-the-stage of blithering old Joe to be replaced by a 60 year old B(J) player from the Chorus Line, would make Shakespeare blush.
When you institute a Central Bank that can make or break any player or many players, you are not and never were "Capitalist".

Posted by: kupkee | Sep 8 2024 12:58 utc | 9

There are a whole lot of cheap mining/resource companies out there, I made the mistake of investing in a few as their shares can be very cheap. Try Almonty in Korea (tungsten). They are dead money for many years of losses. With world population going as it is (and Ukraine becoming demographically extinct), I will stick with tech stocks.

Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 8 2024 13:00 utc | 10

"? The global economy doesn't look very good right now

Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 8 2024 12:17 utc | 2"

The trick is to live in the now yet simultaneously think & plan long term.

Today's actions yield tomorrow's consequences.

Posted by: Mary | Sep 8 2024 13:00 utc | 11

Posted by: canuck | Sep 8 2024 12:49 utc | 8

Oh, come on, just look at the number of sanctions over time. A massive uptick started in 2004 already and it correlates with FX reserves, especially the success rate of sanctions negatively correlates with it, see Fig. 1 & 4 here:

https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/global-sanctions-data-base

Posted by: Multipolar Panda | Sep 8 2024 13:08 utc | 12

Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 8 2024 13:00 utc | 10

Freeport McMoran, a major copper producer would be my first pick-now at $40 per share, got in 4 years ago at $9.10.Pays a small dividend 1.3%

Tech stocks will unravel in the next 6 months like they did in 2000-with the yen carry trade breaking up -I would get out..

Anyways, that's what makes a market, bulls v bears.

Only time will tell whom made3 the right call.

Posted by: canuck | Sep 8 2024 13:14 utc | 13

Posted by: canuck | Sep 8 2024 12:49 utc | 8

The misunderstood/ignored dilemma (by the U.S. Warmongers) of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. A reserve currency is valuable because of demand for that currency. Yet Sanctions lessen demand for the U.S. dollar, hence decline.
Of all the minor countries sanctioned by the U.S. - to pick Russia and then foolishly include China as subservient to the U.S. dollar - that takes brass balls, possibly the size of bee-bees.

Posted by: kupkee | Sep 8 2024 13:23 utc | 14

If this counts as an open thread, hope it's OK to submit a comment arising from a discussion on Colonel Lang's old blog. It's about what happens after the war.

Of the two points that I have always believed are the outstanding questions when the Ukrainian war is done with, the first question is how the Russians will deal with the question of remnant Ukraine. The second, whether the Russians will continue to deliver lifeline supplies to a fiercely Russophobic Europe.

On the first question, it seems unrealistic at the moment but I still think Putin is angling for a political settlement that will come from within Ukraine itself.

The second question is key. All the commentators go on about how Germany's getting a hammering and how that could become worse.

But that's not only tough on the Germans. Germany is the economic superpower of Europe and the lynchpin of the entire EU set-up. That includes us because we still do half our trade with the EU.

If Germany catches a cold, therefore, the rest of us in Europe get pneumonia.

So that second question is no mere debating point! Apart from the little countries on Germany's periphery the Germans are the fiercest opponents of Russia in Europe. From Merz's speech in the Bundestag in the first days of the SMO to all the Scholz/Habeck/Baerbock diatribes since there has been nothing much from them except Russia hate.

And we needn't take too much notice of Wagenknecht or the AfD in this context They're more cashing in on the popular discontent with the economic downturn or with mass immigration.

So there's Russia still feeding in fuel and raw materials to Germany. Quite a lot of that being turned into weapons, and lots of them, to kill Russian soldiers.

And although you and I will see the use of old German helmets and German tanks in the recent Kursk incursion as merely isolated incidents, which they are, to Russians brought up on the memory of WWII that's going to be full confirmation of the White Tiger side of this war.

Add to that silly comments made recently by some of the Balts that they still want to see the RF broken up - we scarcely notice them but you can be sure the Russians do - and there's not a lot of incentive for the Russians to keep feeding fuel and raw materials in. Not forgetting that Europe's going Net Zero. Given that, it's not a market for the Russians that would justify long term investment in energy infrastructure or pipeline maintenance in any case. There were reports not long back that the Russians have already earmarked natural gas that would otherwise have come to Europe for internal use or for export elsewhere.

On current contracts, Putin said in '22, at the start of it all, that the Russians would honour existing contracts but would reconsider when those contracts came up for renewal later. That was before NS got blown up.

The NS1 contract for natural gas was an advantageous contract for Germany. It was their get out of jail free card in the sanctions war. It was a long term contract - decades to run, if I remember correctly - and it supplied natural gas to Germany at rates several times below current LNG spot.

Presumably that contract's gone. The Germans must now pay spot and increasingly have to pay spot LNG prices.

There's one NS2 pipeline left and that, so far, the Russians have said they're prepared to supply natural gas through. The problem there is that the Germans refuse to take gas through that remaining pipeline. They'll probably continue to refuse to do so.

So we move from the position at the start of the SMO, when the Germans were sitting pretty as far as natural gas went, to the position today when they are no longer sitting pretty. The fact that that's by their own choice is neither here nor there - I think it's politically impossible for the Germans to take natural gas supplies through the one remaining NS pipeline.

They're also paying over the odds for some other fuel supplies they get from Russia. All the "Latvian blend" nonsense and getting fuel through third parties adds to the price they pay. In effect though not in law they're sanctions busting and that always costs money.

In addition to all that they've lost market share in Russia, and that was a very good market for them. The Russian crash programme of import substitution means they're unlikely to get that market back.

So there's the economic lynchpin of Europe paying over the odds for fuel and raw materials, much of that fuel and raw materials still coming from Russia, and earning less than it used to.

At the same time still vehemently anti-Russian, talking of putting many more troops on the Russian border, and installing missiles that could be nuclear aimed directly at Russia. If we remember, the very things the Russians were going on about in late '21.

If it all gets a little too much for the Russians they can, while scarcely damaging themselves at all, respond by imposing, quite legally, counter sanctions that would ditch the remnants of the Wirtschaftswunder and the rest of the continent with it!

I go on a bit about the Eurocrats, but it must astonish anyone that Berlin/Brussels is quite blind to this obvious risk. Has been all along. They move heaven and earth to damage the Russians while seemingly unaware that if they chose, the Russians could ditch them tomorrow!

They Russians might not so choose. They don't want their new friends to see them wielding the energy weapon. But the risk that they might choose to do so is a risk the Europeans seem not to take the slightest notice of.

Nor of course Starmer. But he's set on felo de se anyway so I doubt the risk bothers him either.

Posted by: English Outsider | Sep 8 2024 13:24 utc | 15

Now the dollar share of FX reserves is 58%- ie. the downswing trend line has kept the same curve since 2000. (1)

Posted by: canuck | Sep 8 2024 12:49 utc | 8

Now do currencies with regards to their share of global trading, since the two are quite distinct.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Sep 8 2024 13:35 utc | 16

"Now the dollar share of FX reserves is 58%- ie. the downswing trend line has kept the same curve since 2000. "

Posted by: canuck | Sep 8 2024 12:49 utc | 8

"Now do currencies with regards to their share of global trading, since the two are quite distinct."

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Sep 8 2024 13:35 utc | 16

Yes they are distinct:

Global trading by currency: 44.15% US Dollar
16.40 Euro
6.40 British Pound
3.93 CNY and HK Dollar
3.38% Australian dollar
2.82 Canadian dollar (1)

1. https://www.ig.com/en/trading-strategies/what-are-the-top-10-most-traded-currencies-in-the-world-200115

Posted by: canuck | Sep 8 2024 13:51 utc | 17

Posted by: canuck | Sep 8 2024 12:49 utc | 8

"The misunderstood/ignored dilemma (by the U.S. Warmongers) of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. A reserve currency is valuable because of demand for that currency. Yet Sanctions lessen demand for the U.S. dollar, hence decline.
Of all the minor countries sanctioned by the U.S. - to pick Russia and then foolishly include China as subservient to the U.S. dollar - that takes brass balls, possibly the size of bee-bees."

Posted by: kupkee | Sep 8 2024 13:23 utc | 14

Not correct.

The dollar share of FX reserves was 74% in 2000; in 2010 it was 65% -way before major sanctions in 2014.

Sanctions haven't helped the dollar as a reserve currency but the trend was already there well before the sanctions were executed in 2014..

Now the dollar share of FX reserves is 58%- ie. the downswing trend line has kept the same curve since 2000.

Hence, your idea that sanctions have aided de dollarization does not line up when one examines facts.

1. https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/06/11/dollar-dominance-in-the-international-reserve-system-an-update

Posted by: canuck | Sep 8 2024 12:49 utc | 8

Posted by: canuck | Sep 8 2024 14:07 utc | 18

Even the Men in the Democrat Party Are Women. https://shorturl.at/XYaDc

Posted by: Dogon Priest | Sep 8 2024 14:08 utc | 19

reply to 17

I wonder if dollar related stablecoins are counted within dollar transactions - like Tether. This one in particular isn't being widely noticed even as it rivals Visa levels now. The irony is that Russia/China uses it to escape the dollar. Kinda Eurodollar like but crypto.

As to investments, there are plenty of cheap mining stocks across the globe that don't look sketchy as with Ukraine. What Does Fascinate me currently are China stocks that link up with their government's policies ($$$$$ plus edicts) such as EH or CYD. They look like an 'ace up the sleeve' situation amidst shaky economies.

Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 8 2024 14:20 utc | 20

Hunter Biden's guilty plea is missing from the Week in Review

What Did the Biden Family’s Foreign Clients Get for their Money?

Hunter Biden pleads guilty to federal tax charges.

Hunter Biden has been convicted of federal crimes for not paying all the taxes he owed on his foreign income. But the most important question for Americans remains unanswered: What exactly did his overseas clients get in return for their money? His Thursday guilty plea on tax charges prevented testimony that may have gone some way toward providing an answer. This potential testimony may also explain why Hunter Biden waited until now to acknowledge his guilt.

The Journal’s Sara Randazzo, Ryan Barber and Annie Linskey report from Los Angeles:

Federal prosecutors signaled an aggressive strategy as the trial drew near, previewing an approach that would show how foreign interests paid the younger Biden to influence the U.S. government while his father was vice president during the Obama administration. Prosecutors said they planned to cast a light on a lucrative arrangement with a Romanian real-estate magnate who was facing a corruption investigation in his home country, along with his ties to the oil company CEFC China Energy and his tenure on the board of Burisma, a Ukrainian gas company.

In court Thursday, [prosecutor Leo Wise] insisted on reading the entirety of the 56-page indictment into the record—over the objection of Biden’s lawyer—to establish the facts underlying the guilty plea.

Alanna Durkin Richer reported last month for the Associated Press:

Hunter Biden’s lawyers say prosecutors are inappropriately trying to insert “politically-charged” allegations about his foreign business dealings into the upcoming federal tax trial against the president’s son.

Special counsel David Weiss’ team told the judge last week that they plan to call to the witness stand a business associate of Hunter Biden’s to testify about an arrangement with a Romanian businessman who was trying to “influence U.S. government policy” during Joe Biden’s term as vice president…

The Romanian businessman, Gabriel Popoviciu, wanted U.S. government agencies to probe a bribery investigation he was facing in his home country in the hopes that would end his legal trouble, according to prosecutors.

Prosecutors say Hunter Biden agreed with his business associate to help Popoviciu fight the criminal charges against him. But prosecutors say they were concerned that “lobbying work might cause political ramifications” for Joe Biden, so the arrangement was structured in a way that “concealed the true nature of the work” for Popoviciu, prosecutors alleged…

In fact, Popoviciu and Hunter’s business associate agreed that they would be paid for their work to “attempt to influence U.S. government agencies to investigate the Romanian investigation,” prosecutors said. Hunter Biden’s business associate was paid more than $3 million, which was split with Hunter and another business partner, prosecutors say.

Ms. Richer also noted that Hunter Biden’s defense lawyers “slammed prosecutors for showcasing ‘these matters on the eve of Mr. Biden’s trial—when there is no mention of political influence in the 56-page Indictment.’ ” The A.P. story continued:

continues ==> https://www.wsj.com/opinion/what-did-the-biden-familys-foreign-clients-get-for-their-money-98593064

Posted by: too scents | Sep 8 2024 14:45 utc | 21

Canuck @13, I read recently that China is restricting antimony. Might that be an investment opportunity?

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Sep 8 2024 15:11 utc | 22

Does anyone share my fear that the United States will declare war (take your pick from the three "theatres") and suspend the November elections? IMO, that is the last arrow they have in their quiver.

Posted by: Maracatu | Sep 8 2024 15:11 utc | 23

Canuck,

Central Bank Reserves ? - strip out Japan, the EU, England and see what the trend line looks like. Also note the tsunami of Gold buying by Central Banks.

Global trading by Currency ? - I believe that data comes from SWIFT transactions 🤣

De-dollarization takes time, figure 5 years from 2022 to see first real big impacts on Federal Interest Rates. There are already hints that things are amiss with Federal Debt auctions.

If the De-Dollarization premise is correct, then we should observe interest on Federal Debt to be slightly higher than “expected” in 2025.

Posted by: Exile | Sep 8 2024 15:26 utc | 24

...
Lithium? Good Luck. Researchers are working feverishly to create better batteries that bypass this mineral.
Opening new mines tends to be a horrid investment in which huge sums get invested with losses for many years...
...

Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 8 2024 12:17 utc | 2

Researchers have already decided what they want to replace Lithium. It's called Graphene, and its 'promise' is circa 100x the Energy Density of Li-ion batteries. Trouble is, at present they can only assemble sheets of Graphene atom by atom which is a bit slow for a mass-market commodity.

The price of Lithium has crashed recently. The Yankees are probably praying to Mammon that those pesky Chinese haven't cracked the code for bulk Graphene synthesis.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Sep 8 2024 15:31 utc | 25

thanks b...

i hope your road to recovery is a smooth one..

Posted by: james | Sep 8 2024 16:04 utc | 26

Breaking News via DW...

AmeriKKKa's fake Venezuela Govt has has done a midnight flit to Spain and is seeking asylum there.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Sep 8 2024 17:14 utc | 27

Posted by: canuck | Sep 8 2024 12:49 utc | 8
Posted by: Multipolar Panda | Sep 8 2024 13:08 utc | 12
Posted by: kupkee | Sep 8 2024 13:23 utc | 14
Posted by: canuck | Sep 8 2024 14:07 utc | 18

kupkee and Multipolar Panda are correct. I did the math.

Starting in 2014, the downward trend of US$ in declared reserves by nations accelerated significantly.

The acceleration was around 60%, and by this I mean that the rate of shrinking (%/yr) from 2014 to 2021 was 60% higher than the rate of shrinking in the period of 2000 to 2013. In fact this can be seen visually in some plots of your link to the IMF.

Some other observers have seen a new acceleration push of de-dollarization starting in 2022 but me thinks we have to wait a few more years to clarify that.

On the other hand, as a result of USA sanctions on Russia in 2014, Russian GDP growth declined by 20% in the period of 2014 to 2021 with respect to the period 2000 to 2013.

So those are the scores in the economic front: USA sanctions on Russia in 2014 caused a 20% reduction in the growth rate of Russian GDP at the cost of a 60% acceleration of the shrinking rate of the pool of US$ held as reserves by nations.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Sep 8 2024 17:39 utc | 28

Johan,

Thanks for number crunching.

What was the RF’s economic growth rate from 2014-21 ? And did it exceed US or EU growth rate ?

Posted by: Exile | Sep 8 2024 17:47 utc | 29

Declared wars did not prevent US elections in 1918, 1942, and 1944.

Posted by: Lysias | Sep 8 2024 17:49 utc | 30

And the presidential election of 1864 was held in the midst of a civil war, when most secessionist states did not vote at all. (The two reconquered states of Louisiana and Tennessee did hold votes, but Congress did not count their electoral votes.)

Posted by: Lysias | Sep 8 2024 18:02 utc | 31

Lysias: "Declared wars did not prevent US elections in 1918, 1942, and 1944." True, ...
But they will want to do it now since it will keep Trump from becoming president (which is one of their goals).

Posted by: Maracatu | Sep 8 2024 18:10 utc | 32

Posted by: Exile | Sep 8 2024 17:47 utc | 29

GDP growth rate YoY average 2014-2021
USA: 2.34%
EU: 1.38%
RF: 1.09%

2023
USA: 2.54%
EU: 0.45%
RF: 3.60%

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Sep 8 2024 18:39 utc | 33

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Sep 8 2024 17:39 utc | 28

Correction:

On the other hand, as a result of USA sanctions on Russia in 2014, Russian GDP growth during the period of 2014 to 2021 declined to 20% of what it was during the period of 2000 to 2013.

So those are the scores in the economic front: USA sanctions on Russia in 2014 caused a 80% reduction in the growth rate of Russian GDP at the cost of a 60% acceleration of the shrinking rate of the pool of US$ held as reserves by nations.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Sep 8 2024 18:47 utc | 34

Posted by: Maracatu | Sep 8 2024 18:10 utc | 32

The US ruling class likes to extract profits from war, but the US citizens themselves do not feel very good about their country's continued war.

Even in Trump's first term, Trump use tactic of election campaign with his opposition to the war in Iraq and his pledge to withdraw US troops from conflicts in various parts of the country.
He won that way.
Recall Zelensky. Even he gained popularity by promising to ‘ceasefire with the Donbass region’ when he changed his job from a comedian.

Waging war itself never increases the popularity of a presidential candidate.
It only makes your country the villain.

In order to create a cause for war without damaging the popularity of the people, it is always necessary to give the reason that "the enemy attacked first, so you have no choice but to fight back.".
President Roosevelt wanted to intervene in World War II for help Britain, but he had to wait for the Japanese to run amok at Pearl Harbour.

To get public opinion, someone had to attack the US first to stir up public anger.

If Biden and the other Democrats declare war on someone else on their own, it does not increase the popularity of the Democratic Party.
On the contrary, it only gives Trump the chance to say, ‘Look, all politicians are war mongers except me’.

There are actually not many options for declaring war.
Proxy wars are fine, but must avoid a situation where regular Chinese or Russian troops clash with US troops directly.
It is also difficult to use the situation in the Middle East. Because right now, normal US citizen (not Zionist), has a very low liking for Israhell.
If Biden declare war on Iran or any other ME country in this situation, any fool will realise that he did it to help the genocidal state Israel.
Would doing so increase the popularity of the Democrats?
Don't you feel it would only increase Trump's popularity?

Posted by: Nokaz | Sep 8 2024 19:07 utc | 35

Agit Papadakis is preposterous and linking to this drivel betrays a serious incompetence. From the trivial to the important, nothing Papadakis can be relied up can be assumed to anything but gossip and crank speculation. And the gossip is the more reliable part! An example of the trivial, Clinton wanting to run for president surely had something to do with her resignation as secretary of state. Ben-Ghazi didn't blow up in Clinton's face as an exposure of CIA shenanigans, it was yet another deranged Trumper/Republican (indistinguishable here, as often the case, by the way) to cry "Treason!" Clinton was pilloried as weak and negligent to the point of sacrificing American lives to evil terrorists. She was not attacked for indirectly supporting/manipulating ISIS. The claim Obama ended the war in Syria unlike mad dog Clinton is preposterous: Obama no more did that than Trump. It still goes on, with parts of Syria still occupied by foreigners or foreign puppets. Not sure that even the gossip is faithfully retailed by this dude. The younger Bush was probably an alcoholic not an addict. But the carefully not-notorious choking incident where he fell onto a coffee table (as I recall?) sounds much more like drunken aspiration than an OD. Death by aspiration while too heavily dosed usually occurs from sleeping on the back, as I understand it. Pitiful.

The general perspective of a Trumper complaining about the staff doing the work while the incompetent president is clueless is astounding insolence. When the Deep State runs things for Trump it's a nefarious plot but he'll do better next time. That is what this sort of stuff is saying and it's ridiculous.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Sep 8 2024 19:14 utc | 36

Exodus is correct, the currency dominance percentages come from swift data.

Just like election numbers, pro west 'institutions' like the IMF, world bank or Basel bank all put out numbers that basically imply "things are CLOSE but USA is still on top".

The truth is we won't know when USA is eclipsed until its painfully obvious.

Don't be naïve, all western institutions are the same thing as wikipedia.

Posted by: ryanggg | Sep 8 2024 21:14 utc | 37

I meant exile, my bad

Posted by: ryanggg | Sep 8 2024 21:14 utc | 38

I think this open question belongs in the open thread.

To what extent has Russian choices been made specifically in order to deliberately avoid what would seem obvious or the most likely?

Not at all? Somewhat? Completely?

Is it a significant element in decisions, plans, and internal debate?

Interested to hear what people think about this.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Sep 8 2024 21:56 utc | 39

Posted by: steven t johnson | Sep 8 2024 19:14 utc | 36

The allegory of the cave shifting of deck chairs on the Titanic.

The Democrat-ish perspective on the Trump-ish perspective on the ongoing forever wars waged by the Blue wing vs. the Red/Trump wing of (essentially) the Uni-Party. I.e., the erstwhile, utterly meaningless distinction games played by partisans who think it makes the slightest bit of difference whether Americans vote Blue or Red when it comes to "foreign policy." Yawn. To both "sides."

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Sep 8 2024 22:08 utc | 40

It looks as though the NED's chickens have come home to roost.

I noticed this article in the Lever this morning. *The Lever a 'progressive' apologist for the Dims does carry out good investigative reporting even though their editorial conclusions are a little suspect.
Headed This Election, Dark Money Is Blackmailing Lawmakers at one point the article spells out the sad truth of the corruption which has long infected amerikan politics from top to bottom, as now the pittance big corporations pay in state property taxes has been slashed in Colorado by a mixture of blackmail & bribery by someone the pols claim to have had no introduction to!

Of course some of the pols' complaints need to be taken with salt as blaming faceless evil for yer own doing goes back to the earliest days of the leadership model of government.

"Colorado’s Democratic governor called the special session of the Democratic-controlled legislature. Nor was it a matter of out-of-control state taxes, as the state already boasts an extremely low property tax rate, and legislation passed this May further reduced taxes by $1.3 billion.

Instead, lawmakers say they were forced to cut property taxes further to keep measures introduced by a dark-money group and a Colorado tycoon off of the November ballot. If enacted, these measures would lead to far deeper property tax cuts of more than $2 billion per year.

It’s a warning for the rest of the country: In effect, legislators were engaging in negotiations with shadowy groups trying to hijack the state’s ballot process, with the state itself being held hostage. Representatives of the dark money groups weren’t in attendance at the capitol — meaning that lawmakers were negotiating with political operatives they couldn’t see, and who are bankrolled by donors who the law allows to hide their identity."

This was inevitable, in fact it could be argued that the NED served merely as an agent of transfer, that what it did in fact was to transfer the methodology long employed at every level of government in amerika where the rich have always ruled the roost, overseas.
However that is overly simplistic as amerikans turned a blind eye to the excesses of business & government conditionally, that is to say as long as public education worked, roads were kept in good order and healthcare remained affordable for most families, they preferred to ignore the corrupt practices of their 'betters'. "There but for a bit of bad luck, I would be going" and all that tosh.

That deal has been taken off the table in the 21st century, most likely because amerikan corporate capitalism is in its last stages. The need for corporate earnings to increase every year has resulted in the parasite having consumed & profited off of every available corner of the rest of the world, began eating itself.

However that is only partially true, as normally amerikan capitalists considered the obvious danger of destroying their foundation and found new corners 'out there' to misappropriate, then devour. The empire is fading, 'new corners' virtually impossible to locate let alone seize, so now amerika's infrastructure both physical (roads, bridges) and its intellectual infrastructure (education, now focussed on profit making from overseas students) has entered a stage of disrepair that seems almost terminal.

Now billionaires are harvesting the basis upon which their society was built, there is no surer sign that these potentates plan on deserting their stomping grounds in the false belief, other parts of the planet who have lavished upon them as visitors (in return for healthy profit) will welcome them as citizens, when little could be further from the truth as people living mostly outside the 100% sympathetic to the wealthy coverage of these low lifes of amerika, won't be so happy once their guests begin hanging around too long, like stale food demanding to be tossed out before it begins to stink.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Sep 8 2024 22:08 utc | 41

Telling people to switch to alternative energy is a bit like telling people to consume olive oil.
People are told olive oil is better for their health than lard. Everybody nods sagely, but they don't eat less animal fats. They just eat more olive oil.
It's the same with alternative energy. People are told wind and solar is better than coal and oil. But they don't burn less fossil fuels. They just use wind and solar on top of what they already used.

Posted by: Passerby | Sep 8 2024 22:11 utc | 42

Sometimes I think we get lost in the near-term analysis and prediction making when it comes to ground wars in Europe and Eurasia. Don't really want to leave a long rambling comment or open a huge can of worms, but I did want to remark on something that occurred to me recently and of which I was reminded reading Diesen's piece on the increase in Ukrainian casualties. Just the picture of the graveyard alone caused me to ponder the not-too-near future in Ukraine, but also the rest of Eastern Europe and the vassal states in the West.

Future generations of Ukrainians will likely be subject to heavily US/UK underwritten propaganda, focusing on the sheer number of deaths sustained by Ukrainians after the SMO began. Whether Ukraine becomes a rump state or a member of NATO with a demilitarized zone to the east or whatever it becomes, I see the makings of a generation or more's worth of fodder for Russophobic propaganda. In Ukrainian school books, in 'official' history narratives, in manufactured culture, to include festering 'Banderism' allowed to become the de-facto historical reality. Anti-Russian sentiments could be extremely hard, if impossible, to erase and this will lead to (and be used by CIA/NED/MI6, etc. to foment) perpetual militarism and hatred in the hearts of all Ukrainians remaining in whatever areas Russia doesn't eventually annex.

Is there a cultural/narrative off-ramp for where this looks to be heading? If not, are we seeing merely the beginning of another generation or two of enmity and hot wars, or another "iron curtain" narrative that'll break the world into two or more mostly manufactured blocs (insofar as what we know about the deeds of western "intelligence" during the first Cold War)? My own thoughts are muddled and I'm sure that comes forward in this comment. But I did want to see if anyone else has thought about this - not necessarily from the hard geopolitical boundaries that end up being drawn, but from the new histories and new astroturf culture (think: Holodomor) that are being midwifed by the US and her European (both east and west) lapdogs or aspiring vassals?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Sep 8 2024 22:26 utc | 43

Interesting comments by NewOrange88 in the comments section attached to this Top War article:

Coincidence? - An American officer died in Poznan, Poland, on the day the Russian Armed Forces struck a military institute in Poltava

Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström has resigned. And for what reason? Billström explained his unexpected decision on social media X as follows: "In connection with the opening of parliament."

Swedish politicians and military personnel, as well as ordinary people, associate this demarche with the Russian Iskander missile strikes on the Poltava Military Institute in Ukraine. Moreover, [the] Swedes are already gossiping that both Defense Minister [Pål Jonson] and Foreign Minister Tobias Billström were summoned to the carpet by King Carl XVI Gustaf, who gave them a stern dressing down for the death of a large group of Swedish instructors in Ukraine (Swedish social media say there were more than 20 of them). The dispatch of these instructors was initiated by Jonsson and Billström. The Swedish instructors who arrived in Poltava were mainly employees of the military-industrial concern Saab.

They were great experts in electronic control systems for manned and unmanned vehicles, electronic warfare and reconnaissance systems. And here it is impossible not to remember that it was the Swedes who gave Ukraine two long-range radar reconnaissance aircraft (DRLO), which were supposed to coordinate the Ukrainian Armed Forces' strikes on Russia.

--------

And then there's this comment immediately below:

After the Iskander strikes on the Poltava Institute of Communications (or more precisely, the Military Institute of Telecommunications and Informatization), there was all sorts of talk about the number of victims! Zelensky said that there were 53 dead. And then he was ridiculed by Poltava residents - doctors who have been rescuing the wounded and shell-shocked for several days now, as well as sending the dead to morgues.

These, People who know the real situation, communicating in Telegram channels, revealed the real losses:
"There are already 760 bodies in the morgues." That's more than half of the institute's personnel. (my emphasis)

According to one local blogger, this number is not final. The morgue is already filled with soldiers. The bodies of the "two hundredth" were taken away from the scene of the tragedy in large trucks, and many of them were left without limbs.

Local volunteers also testify to this.

Well, another clear proof of the effectiveness of the missile strike was the swarm of NATO air ambulances. They are evacuating not only Swedes, but also Americans, Germans, French, Poles, and Romanians. The dead, wounded, shell-shocked. Some in "pieces" in black bags.

If NewOrange88's comments are correct, then it looks as if Ukrainian plans to strike targets deep in Russia are stymied at least, if not completely confounded by the Russian missile strike.

Do any barflies know which other countries also bought or acquired Sweden's ASC 890 early warning radar reconnaissance aircraft? If the rumour that all the managers who oversaw this project's development in Saab AB have all been killed in Poltava, then what happens if the armed forces of these countries were to have problems or issues with the aircraft and their systems? How will new people be trained on these systems if Saab AB's project managers and trainers associated with the technology are dead?

Posted by: Refinnejenna | Sep 8 2024 22:40 utc | 44

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Sep 8 2024 22:26 utc | 43

Absolutely on point and they will present outrageous numbers of millions killed by Russia and call it a genocide. That's for sure.

Posted by: Zet | Sep 8 2024 22:52 utc | 45

@ Refinnejenna | Sep 8 2024 22:40 utc | 45 with the info on the Poltava strikes...thanks

This is probably more Ukraine thread stuff but I wanted to add my support for the theory that SAAB lost some folks. Early on I mentioned how it made more sense for the Swedish FM to quit given SAAB folks dying than troops and some commenter (rk) came in and said I was wrong......looking more right by the day.....I expect SAAB will have to admit to some story soon as well.

The shit show continues until it doesn't.....

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 8 2024 22:53 utc | 46

Passerby@42, personally I don't use olive oil for cooking. It has a low boiling point, so it tends to burn. The same with vegetable oil. I only use lard, butter or bacon grease for frying. No fat free crap. Real butter, etc. Im not giving advice, you can cook however you want. But it has been good for me and my family. Real food.

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Sep 8 2024 22:55 utc | 47

Scandinavian royalty are almost exclusively a cultural and ceremonial thing so I doubt that part.

It would have had to be someone else, perhaps most likely simply the fact that being in any way responsible (if nothing else due to their position) would be a major black mark and a massively compromising fact (even worse if not publicly acknowledged and/or not publicly approved in advance —neither is or was the case) rendering those it concerns unusable and unfit for any purpose.

A thousand times more please. Burn through the Quislings.

Anyway I certainly hope the rest is true.

Oh btw only Thailand according to someone else here at MoA. They'll manage (don't mention that old missing "Houdini" passenger plane! No one saw it and no one could have :P ).

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Sep 8 2024 23:06 utc | 48

I would point out that eating fat doesn't make you fat. Sugar and carbohydrates do. It takes protein and fat to burn the carbs. I learned this from old chemistry books with sections on Organic chemistry and nutrition. Also, the different amino acids that keep you healthy. There are a few amino acids that you can't get unless you eat meat. So there's that.

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Sep 8 2024 23:15 utc | 49

hat tip andrew sarchus on pal thread

Superb new song
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDzZXBPiptc

“Kissing the ring of Potus”:

The Empire of Lies secures allies
Like a spider ties up flies
Those hand-picked parasites ruling the servile satellites
Know who they dare not criticise
A psychopathic superpower spies from the sky
Transmitting viruses into the mind's eye

"It's vassalage or war!"
Shrieked the Casablanca whore
Slaughter by proxy
The hidden hand
The cat's paw

Kissing the ring of POTUS
Under the spell of hypnosis
The proof of psychosis
The coup that nobody noticed

The criminals were anointed
The false flags were hoisted
Missiles flattening, nations shattering
Yet, even while it was happening, it wasn't happening
By now so conceited and proud
They brag of their crimes out loud
"We cheated, we stole, we lied!"
"We came, we saw, he died!"

So, is this how the Empire dies?
Its constitution withered on the vine
Propped up by the dollar and the drone
Slumped upon a degenerating throne

Kissing the ring of POTUS
Under the spell of hypnosis
The proof of psychosis
The coup that nobody noticed

Kissing the ring of POTUS
Under the spell of hypnosis
The proof of psychosis
The coup that nobody noticed

Posted by: Fred | Sep 8 2024 23:34 utc | 50

Sure.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEszja9BDYo

ARE you able to be good?

Posted by: Migoss | Sep 8 2024 23:43 utc | 51

Sunny Runny Burger @ 49:

Thank you for the information about Thailand.

I have Googled some information about the ASC 890 and found this Wikipedia article on the Saab 340 AEW&C system (the same aircraft). Poland has two planes as well.

The King of Sweden may have berated Jonsson and Billström in his capacity as a senior representative of the armed forces of Sweden. He holds honorary general and admiral ranks in the Swedish armed forces.

Posted by: Refinnejenna | Sep 8 2024 23:58 utc | 52

Don't you be right.

The hell is right about.

Posted by: Miyg | Sep 9 2024 0:04 utc | 53

One last thing I wanted to point out. During the Reagan administration, Everett C. Coop declared war on cholesterol. Eventually it encompassed meat, eggs, dairy and salt. As some of you may not know, the human brain is 80% fat. And cholesterol is essential for the brain to function. Hence, 40 years later, we have a nation of fat, stupid zombies. Cheers.

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Sep 9 2024 0:10 utc | 54

Canuck's numbers are from BIS, clearing house for SWIFT.

Bet one day dollar will reach 100%. When no-one else wants to use SWIFT - except the ex-empire trading with its last colony Eswatini.😂 uh and maybe with canuckistan.

Posted by: blueswede | Sep 9 2024 0:15 utc | 55

@passerby recommended a book by Catton 1980
‘Overshoot – The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change’ (1980) – A Book in Five Minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEZLPudq6JQ

aka The huge differences between ignorance incompetence mistaken opinions and unfounded beliefs to genuine science data and logic: aka facts about the Truth of reality.
Or call it another unheard voice in the wilderness - much like Caitlin Johnstone is ignored by the world.

Though, ‘Overshoot’, is ostensibly a book about biophysical limits, the
theme running through it is the human propensity for denying obvious facts:
Our ability to deceive not only others, but more importantly, ourselves.

As with the first review in this 4-part miniseries, ‘Farewell to Growth’ (2007),
any book that posits the ‘end of affluence’ will inevitably attract the misanthrope,
and their arch-enemy, the Cornucopian.

Those who celebrate the book are as interesting as those who hate it:
Celebrating the ‘end of society’ can be just as escapist as the cult-like
belief that ‘technology will save us’; yet, as Catton describes, both
misanthropy and Cornucopianism are a means of denying the demonstrable
trends unfolding before our eyes.

Catton summarises the scope of the book in the Preface:
“In a future that is as unavoidable as it will be unwelcome,
“survival and sanity may depend upon our ability to cherish rather than”
“to disparage the concept of human dignity...”
“I have tried to show the real nature of humanity's predicament not because”
“understanding its nature will enable us to escape it, but because if we do not”
“understand it we shall continue to act and react in ways that make it worse.”

That’s why this book has as many ‘haters’ as it does devotees:
It attacks people’s ‘cult-like’ belief in the innovative power of technology;
and disturbs the ‘comfortable classes’ by reminding them of the impermanence
of those comforts.

As Catton says:
“The belief held that great technological breakthroughs would”
“inevitably occur in the near future, and would enable man to continue”
“indefinitely expanding the world’s human carrying capacity.”

“This was a mere faith in a faith, like stock-market speculation;”
“it had no firmer basis than naive statistical extrapolation...”

“Such a faith overlooked the fact that man’s ostensible ‘enlargement’”
“of the world’s productivity in the past had mainly consisted of successive”
“diversions of the world’s life- supporting processes from use by”
“other species to use by man. It failed to see that ‘progress’”
“must stop when all divertable resources have been diverted.”

Put simply, ‘Overshoot’ is a book on the sociology of economic collapse:
Of how societies choose to deal (or not) with the ‘overshoot’ of the
human economy; and, as with any species that exceeds its carrying capacity,
how collapse must be the inevitable result of ecological overshoot.

However, whereas ‘natural’ species do not have the wherewithal to control
their population collapse, the ability of human society to anticipate,
study, and understand the nature of ecological collapse,
gives us a unique ability to change that outcome...

Posted by: Fred | Sep 9 2024 0:35 utc | 56

Psycho historian @ 47:

Saab AB's share price on the US market (at least) fell over five days ending 6 September 2024 apparently. The fall was quite steep from 3 to 4 September 2024.

The missile hit was on 3 September 2024.

Posted by: Refinnejenna | Sep 9 2024 0:48 utc | 57

@Sunny Runny Burger | Sun, 08 Sep 2024 21:56:00 GMT | 39

To what extent has Russian choices been made specifically in order to deliberately avoid what would seem obvious or the most likely?

Not going into Ukraine full-on in 2022 seems a prime example, even for an amateur strategist like me. The trap was not too well concealed, I guess; but still.

Not to chase after the Mongol horsemen is taught in Russian elementary schools to this day.

Posted by: persiflo | Sep 9 2024 0:52 utc | 58

Therein lies the problem – which is what this book describes.
Contrary to the popular dialogue – again, the product of the
‘magical thinking’ which inherently plagues complex human systems –
The Enlightenment did not end the role of mystical or religious belief
in the conduct of human affairs.

Instead, the role of mystical thinking itself became ‘reductive’,
‘technological’, creating narratives that, while settling for human
material satisfaction, cannot be substantiated through objective method.

For example: The ‘Laws of Physics’ state that the environment is finite,
and that entropy can only increase;
yet at the same time, the principle at work in contemporary economics
is that economic growth can, on average, continue forever.

In general, this book is not well- known enough to receive the ire of
the Cornucopian lobby on a regular basis; certainly, not to the level of
the bile directed towards ‘Silent Spring’ or ‘The Limits to Growth’.

From my reading of both supportive and critical comments, though,
I think there’s a disconnect between how people perceive: Catton’s
presentation of the physical collapse of the human system; versus
his observations of how humans comprehend and react to the knowledge
of this imminent collapse. It’s a subtle difference, but important
in terms of Catton’s greater body of work, and the legacy he has
created for us today.

see 1979
Environmental Sociology: A New Paradigm
William R. Catton, Jr. and Riley E. Dunlap
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/285677670_Environmental_Sociology_A_New_Paradigm

Posted by: Fred | Sep 9 2024 0:55 utc | 59

I also see 'the blind leading the blind' are energized and busy at play with their illogical evidence free mind games and distortions. Good on them. They deserve a pat on the head one and all. Keep up the spirit of 'free speech' guys. You rock!

Posted by: Fred | Sep 9 2024 1:00 utc | 60

To what extent has Russian choices been made specifically in order to deliberately avoid what would seem obvious or the most likely?

Interested to hear what people think about this.
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Sep 8 2024 21:56 utc | 39

The question/s makes no logical sense, to me. What are you talking about? Your internal thoughts as to what events/choices directly relates to these questions are Unknown. Deliberately avoid what? What seems obvious and the most likely to avoid (what exactly)? I have no idea. That is what I think about what you posted and I hope the feedback helps.

Posted by: Fred | Sep 9 2024 1:19 utc | 61

Sanders means "defending the Middle East's only democracy", right? lmao
what a clown show US politics has become

https://x.com/jimmy_dore/status/1832860502688727493
Jimmy Dore @jimmy_dore

Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1832795669997756778
Aaron Rupar @atrupar

Bernie Sanders on Meet the Press: "Cheney and I agree on nothing. No issues. But what we do believe in is that the United States should retain its democratic foundations ... I applaud the Cheneys for their courage in defending democracy."

Posted by: michaelj72 | Sep 9 2024 2:12 utc | 62

Cheney the fixer ..

t's a hard world to be born into, even for nation-states. This week East Timor, half of a small island a few hundred miles north of Australia, became the youngest member of the so-called international community. Out went a temporary UN administration, established three years ago after Indonesian troops had run amok when the Timorese voted in a referendum for independence. In came the leaders of one of the bravest resistance movements of modern times, who fought for two decades in the mountains and doggedly lobbied in foreign capitals to keep East Timor's illegal occupation on the international agenda.

One might have thought such a small country with so difficult a history might have been granted a few years of innocence as it finally achieved sovereignty. But no. The dread hand of American hegemony, corporate as well as diplomatic, was already in action, squeezing the embryo in the womb.
...........
The UN put up a tough fight to get a better deal from Australia and the mighty oil companies, including US-based Phillips Petroleum, than the one which Indonesia had made years earlier. The surprise came last year when the US started warning East Timor not to push Australia too hard [sic] shortly after Vice-President Dick Cheney had received Australian representatives in his Washington office. Mr Cheney is, of course, an oil-man with continuing contacts with businessmen but here he was, using the weight of his governmental position, to interfere in discussions between the UN and a foreign government. Odd, but symptomatic of the world tiny East Timor was entering.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/may/23/indonesia.comment

Posted by: denk | Sep 9 2024 3:26 utc | 63

Caitlin

The West Truly Doesn't See Palestinians As Human

The West never See row As Human
fify

They'r like rats, locusts, ants.....

YOu get the drift.

Posted by: denk | Sep 9 2024 3:43 utc | 64

Johan,

Thanks for posting those relative growth rates. Of course, the question arises is debt fueled GDzp growth really economic growth ?

Ron Unz over at Unz Review had a thought provoking article a few weeks ago comparing various GDPs after stripping out the service economy.

Posted by: Exile | Sep 9 2024 3:48 utc | 65

Caitlin

Do Something Every Day To Help De-Normalize The Abuses Of The Empire

Posted by: denk | Sep 9 2024 3:55 utc | 66

Fred @61, I'll paraphrase.In the Kingdom of the Blind, the one eyed man is King.

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Sep 9 2024 4:09 utc | 67

— Amnesty International, Washington Office, 1996

Throughout the world, on any given day, a man, woman or child is likely to be displaced, tortured, killed or ‘disappeared’, at the hands of governments or armed political groups. More often than not, the United States shares the blame.

https://dissidentvoice.org/2010/07/the-new-iraq-death-threats-and-duplicity/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Vs-paacpkM

Posted by: denk | Sep 9 2024 4:13 utc | 68

Thats all folks

Posted by: denk | Sep 9 2024 4:15 utc | 69

@Refinnejenna | Sep 8 2024 22:40 utc | 45

Do any barflies know which other countries also bought or acquired Sweden's ASC 890 early warning radar reconnaissance aircraft? If the rumour that all the managers who oversaw this project's development in Saab AB have all been killed in Poltava, then what happens if the armed forces of these countries were to have problems or issues with the aircraft and their systems? How will new people be trained on these systems if Saab AB's project managers and trainers associated with the technology are dead?

Interesting topic indeed.

Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 9 2024 6:28 utc | 70

Re #71.

Just guessing but, like washing machines and motor cars, aeroplanes come with an Instruction Manual which explains what all the knobs, switches and levers do.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Sep 9 2024 7:07 utc | 71

Despite some people's arguments to the contrary, the Climate Crisis is gaining momentum.
Global Crisis Inventory: August 2024
https://crashoil-blogspot-com.translate.goog/2024/09/inventario-de-la-crisis-global-agosto.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Another good source, a blog by Antonio Turiel (Author)
Antonio Turiel Martínez (b. León, 1970) is a scientist and blogger with a degree in Physics and Mathematics and a PhD in Theoretical Physics from the Autonomous University of Madrid. He works as a senior scientist at the Institute of Marine Sciences of the CSIC. He has written more than 80 scientific articles, but he is better known as an online activist and editor of The Oil Crash blog, where he addresses sensitive issues about the depletion of conventional fossil fuel resources, such as the peak of oil and its possible implications on a world scale.

When it comes to oil, global production of crude and condensate (the stuff that can be turned into fuel) remains fairly stagnant, about 3 million barrels per day (Mb/d) below November 2018 levels. The U.S. Department of Energy’s one-year outlook revisions continue to assume we’ll be back to 2018 levels a year from now, but that’s hardly credible given that we’ve been hearing the refrain (“we’ll be back to 2018 levels in a year”) since at least 2022.

Misleading advertising to disguise the reality in which we are. And the fact is that, apart from the price of oil, the world has been in a situation of hardship for some time. A few days ago, Art Berman showed a very revealing graph : how much oil is in floating storage, that is, in tankers that are not circulating. Floating oil storage is approaching Zero.

There is virtually no margin, no oil stored in tankers, everything available is on the move. There are no reserves and no capacity to deal with unforeseen events. The last time this happened was in 2008, when the price of a barrel went to almost $150, and in 2022, when we reached $132.
........

But, regardless of whether energy is cheap enough for a mass production industry (which it probably isn't anymore, and that explains both the progressive European deindustrialisation and the persistent inflation), the decline in oil production is already having a very direct effect on the availability of fuels, and above all and most prominently, diesel. There are still a few months to go before the new edition of our now annual analysis, "Peak Diesel" (you can check out last year's ), but a simple look at the data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative shows that global diesel production is following a process of slow decline and is currently around 22 Mb/d, far from the peak of 27 Mb/d that was marked in the period 2015-2017 (almost 20% less). It is therefore not surprising that many countries are experiencing problems in accessing fuels, not only diesel but also gasoline and kerosene for aviation.

In Latin America we can highlight the cases of Bolivia , Colombia and Venezuela , and the rise in prices in Ecuador after several months of problems and the government's decision to withdraw subsidies, which has caused a certain drop in consumption. Argentina has managed to overcome a situation of oil shortage and is now rapidly increasing its production, something very interesting to which I will dedicate a post soon. In Africa the problem is endemic and widespread, with a fundamental epicenter: Nigeria . The problems of this overpopulated country are numerous and growing, and very worrying for the future. Javier Pérez dedicated an analysis to it a few years ago and we will probably talk about Nigeria again in the future. In Asia, the problems are serious in Myanmar , Pakistan , Kazakhstan ,... not to mention the situation in Lebanon, Yemen or of course in Palestine, where the situation is very serious for reasons that go beyond the geological problems of oil extraction. In Europe there are no problems worth mentioning with the exception of Hungary , and in North America there have been some problems in Mexico , although the most important one in that country is its loss (not yet completely) of status as an OIL exporting country . Throughout the world, the most repeated problem is the lack of aviation fuel. It has been prominently lacking in Colombia , Nigeria and Japan., where the local tourist industry has been unable to take off (they say) due to a lack of kerosene. The shortage of kerosene, a mirror image of the diesel shortage, is an increasingly widespread problem, but it is also something that is talked about in hushed tones.

What has been talked about a little louder is Exxon's latest report , which Quark has done a good analysis of . The most striking thing has been a widely publicized graph of how oil production could evolve between now and 2030 without further investment. As you can see, a staggering 70% drop.

Exxon believes that demand will remain high, even at slightly higher levels than at present, because it does not see a possible substitution at the level envisaged by energy transition plans such as those being handled in Europe. The report does not say where this oil will come from. It identifies that there is a need for it, but it is terra incognita as to where it will come from.

Slowly at first, then suddenly.

Posted by: Fred | Sep 9 2024 8:14 utc | 72

@Fred | Sep 9 2024 8:14 utc | 73

the Climate Crisis is gaining momentum.

he is better known as an online activist and editor of The Oil Crash blog

Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 9 2024 9:00 utc | 73

Posted by: Exile | Sep 9 2024 3:48 utc | 66

You're welcome.

Yes, GDP (and GDP-PPP) is a rather blunt tool to measure the size of a nation's economy, with many factors counted as part of production when in fact they are counter-productive.
Yes, I read the Unz article and I agreed with his view of distinguishing between service and industrial parts of economic size in order to better judge the resilience of a nation's economy.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Sep 9 2024 9:10 utc | 74

David Hearst (Middle East Eye):

"Israel's alliance with Europe's fascists is the greatest threat to Jewish people"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcqNjiZw3EQ

"How an unholy alliance between fascists and far-right Zionists fuelled UK riots"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88_Q5eIDkqI

Middle East Eye:
https://www.youtube.com/@MiddleEastEye
https://www.middleeasteye.net

Posted by: WMG | Sep 9 2024 10:07 utc | 75

meanwhile back at the biggest war crime of the 21st century....

https://x.com/CallForCongress/status/1832632115328127070
Jason Call 🇵🇸 CM Stein/Ware24: Unbreakable @CallForCongress

Dick Cheney engineered a war based on known lies, got thousands of American soldiers killed, tens of thousands wounded, and the Watson Institute of Brown University puts the death toll of Iraqis from both direct killing and subsequent associated death at 4-6 million

Dick Cheney is a fucking murderous thug and he should have been brought up on charges in The Hague

But liberals are celebrating this because of their selective morality

It’s the sickest thing

https://x.com/NormieDeGuerre/status/1832540727894553070
gringx @NormieDeGuerre

Kamala Harris thanks Dick Cheney: a well respected leader, more in common than what divides us

Posted by: michaelj72 | Sep 9 2024 10:30 utc | 76

Re: Measuring GDP

Somewhere I read many years ago, that until the 1930s ; Gov’t expenditures was never included in measuring economic output. No idea if this is true or if my memory is faulty.

In the case of the USA, excluding Gov’t expenditures would reduce measured GDP by ~42%. That’s big

Posted by: Exile | Sep 9 2024 11:06 utc | 77

Posted by: Fred | Sep 9 2024 8:14 utc | 73

Thre is no such thing as 'Anthropomorphic Climate Change'--it is just a fear mongering idea that the PTB use to penetrate weak minds like yours; unfortunately, in our present world, 'weak minds' are legion.

Posted by: canuck | Sep 9 2024 11:20 utc | 78

"Re: Measuring GDP

Somewhere I read many years ago, that until the 1930s ; Gov’t expenditures was never included in measuring economic output. No idea if this is true or if my memory is faulty.

In the case of the USA, excluding Gov’t expenditures would reduce measured GDP by ~42%. That’s big"

Posted by: Exile | Sep 9 2024 11:06 utc | 78

"1937: Simon Kuznets, an economist at the National Bureau of Economic Research, presents the original formulation of gross domestic product in his report to the U.S. Congress, “National Income, 1929-35.” His idea is to capture all economic production by individuals, companies, and the government in a single measure, which should rise in good times and fall in bad. GDP is born." (1)

"Figures published by the International Monetary Fund for 2022 shows general government spending at $9,372 billion, or 36.7% of GDP."(2)

1.https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/01/03/gdp-a-brief-history/

2.https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/01/03/gdp-a-brief-history/

Posted by: canuck | Sep 9 2024 11:24 utc | 79

"Canuck @13, I read recently that China is restricting antimony. Might that be an investment opportunity?"

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Sep 8 2024 15:11 utc | 22

I don't know much about antimony-it is very toxic so that only countries like China, Kazakstan, Russia and Turkey do the mining-because of the environmental problems I believe-China is, by far, the biggest producer.

"A lead-antimony alloy is used in batteries. Other uses of antimony alloys include type metal (in printing presses), bullets and cable sheathing. Antimony compounds are used to make flame-retardant materials, paints, enamels, glass and pottery. Antimony and many of its compounds are toxic."

Posted by: canuck | Sep 9 2024 11:33 utc | 80

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Sep 8 2024 17:39 utc | 28

Correction:

On the other hand, as a result of USA sanctions on Russia in 2014, Russian GDP growth during the period of 2014 to 2021 declined to 20% of what it was during the period of 2000 to 2013.

So those are the scores in the economic front: USA sanctions on Russia in 2014 caused a 80% reduction in the growth rate of Russian GDP at the cost of a 60% acceleration of the shrinking rate of the pool of US$ held as reserves by nations.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Sep 8 2024 18:47 utc | 34

You are wrong-the de dollarization trend down is on the same curve from 2000-2014 as it was from 2014-2014-read again more carefully below:

Not correct.

The dollar share of FX reserves was 74% in 2000; in 2010 it was 65% -way before major sanctions in 2014.

Sanctions haven't helped the dollar as a reserve currency but the trend was already there before sanctions.

Now the dollar share of FX reserves is 58%- ie. the downswing trend line has kept the same curve since 2000. (1)

1. https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/06/11/dollar-dominance-in-the-international-reserve-system-an-update

Posted by: canuck | Sep 8 2024 12:49 utc | 8

Posted by: canuck | Sep 9 2024 11:37 utc | 81

"One last thing I wanted to point out. During the Reagan administration, Everett C. Coop declared war on cholesterol. Eventually it encompassed meat, eggs, dairy and salt. As some of you may not know, the human brain is 80% fat. And cholesterol is essential for the brain to function. Hence, 40 years later, we have a nation of fat, stupid zombies. Cheers."

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Sep 9 2024 0:10 utc | 55

I neve believed in the cholesterol bull shit and 20 years later my own doctor agrees with me.

The reason cholesterol became the 'boogie man' as because of over anxious scientists.

When seed oils became prevalent (invented by scientists financed by Rockefeller-in 1909 the first Crisco)heart attacks became much more prevalent.

When doctors did autopsies they found cholesterol at the scene of the crime-ie cholesterol was in the blockages.

What those blockheads back then did not realize that cholesterol is a healer-it was sent there to heal the blockage NOT CAUSE IT.

They figure it out 10-15 years later but there was by that time a cholesterol Big Business' already going so the myth continued.

Statins, a trillion dollar a year business is useless and has many side effects--any of you guys on it get off it pronto!

Posted by: canuck | Sep 9 2024 11:50 utc | 82

Speaker's corner over here:
To me the simulation theory of the universe makes sense and I see a couple of aspects of established physics to be easier to explain if it is interpreted in terms of the simulating machinery struggling to keep up its enormous workload for updating all the particle data.
The simplest aspects of it happen to be related to those parts of physics associated with Albert Einstein.
I skip that part of it here.
I recently was looking for some convenient implementation of for example 128 bit floating point math. In that connection somebody said concerning 256bit floating point math that it wasnt needed for anything - save something related to a cosmic context.
In that context the total number of nucleons might be a suitable example. The number of nucleons may be something like 10^80 and that corresponds to more than 256 bits address-space for holding the data. Perhaps 266 bits.
Of course a simulation might settle for not actually handling all data. But rather skipping and discarding some of it.
Then the subject of dark matter may have relevance. Electromagnetism is associated with massive amounts of instant flows of data. While the mechanical movements of the related material data is a slower process. Thus when you choose to discard data you might still manage the mechanical part of it.
Thus you might manage to make the law of gravity to be nearly precisely fulfilled while you would have to sacrifice the electromagnetic radiation.
The stability of orbital trajectories is probably decisive for the emrgence of civilisations.
So the 1/R^2 law is probably a must.
The above difference between those two phenomena seems to match part of what is believed to hold true for that mysterious yet seriously taken part of reality as astrophysicists see it after having considered it critically.
In that connection I was also wondering about what that might mean in connection with address space. Could it even be that the size of the address space should be determining the proportion of dark matter?
The number I used is just related to the idea that the size of the Universe would be determined by it fulfilling roughly the condition for constituting something like a so called black hole. Therefore the gravitational selfenergy of all the masses would be close to mc^2
I dont have any opinion about what would determine the totally of mass but I have seen this argument mentioned so I use it.
Eddington speculated using the combinatorical properties of a 4D geometry to calculate a slightly smaller number but in a logarithmic comparison it was of a similar magnitude.
I began writing this because people are thinking about WWIII.
I am not suggesting that anybody is running the simulation like a teenage-kid might.
If any civilisation created it, Like Nick Boström has argued around I would expect them to not be keeping much particular attention to us.
We're just not interesting.
However the simulation might entail automatically wiping out the kind of low quality civilisation represented by us. I thought in a turn of pessimism caused by our seeming powerlessness.
I saw the trailer about the Midway Project where the poor sea birds died painful deaths, constipated by having their stomach's full of plastic waste.
Instead of using robot armies to collect the waste we organise wars and more destruction while the animal life is being tortured like this.
But I am thinking of the concept of simulation as just a convenient manner of describing that reality is being calculated by digital methods, leading to the possibility to make possible very stable types of natural laws.
Stability of such laws might be an important cause for the simulation to have emerged at all.
In order to know what to aim for the emerging intelligence, in whatever form it existed, would have to perform simulations before settling for an optimum configuration.
It could have emerged from first being an emergence of intelligence in some multiparticle system without initially ressembling any form we would be familiar with.

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Sep 9 2024 12:12 utc | 83

Slowly at first, then suddenly.

Posted by: Fred | Sep 9 2024 8:14 utc | 73

Yes of course that will happen eventually, but probably its still at least several decades from now...

The extent to which oil and economies are have become interlocked can't be overstated.

Modern Capitalist economies have two basic operating modes. Its either growth or collapse. Growth is dependent on cheap oil. Oil that is too cheap means consumption of oil grows much faster than its effect on the economy. Consumption of oil can't grow rampantly forever (like oil consumption was growing in the US before 1970) and even the abiotic believers should have learned from history that rampant growth in consumption of oil can't be sustained.

OTOH If oil is too expensive oil consumption slows and economic growth stops and collapse ensues. So the question is how long can the human race walk this tight rope of maintaining a balance of economic growth and oil consumption growth before falling off the rope? What is clear is that equilibrium on this tight rope is controlled mostly by the price of oil* and the margin of error is getting smaller as time passes.

*The other factor that affects the global balance of consumption and production is wars that influence the production and consumption of oil. But in the long run interfering with supply and demand by warfare is still about maintaining price.

Posted by: jinn | Sep 9 2024 14:17 utc | 84

Posted by: canuck | Sep 9 2024 11:37 utc | 82

Sanctions haven't helped the dollar as a reserve currency but the trend was already there before sanctions.

You're a stubborn Canadian. I don't need to read anything on this subject. I downloaded raw data of declared foreign reserves by nations from public sources (including from the USA) and I did the analysis myself. Between 2014 and 2021 the rate of shrinking in declared foreign reserves denominated in US$ by all nations accelerated by 60% wrt the same rate between 2000 and 2013.

If you want to argue against my results, you need to do your own calculations.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Sep 9 2024 14:38 utc | 85

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Sep 8 2024 22:55 utc | 48

I'm pleased to see there is another barfly who cooks with lard. I render it myself every fall, using only the pure white leaf fat inside the body cavity. We keep a jar of it by the stove all the time. An unusual things about lard is that it keeps almost forever without refrigeration.

Posted by: Chas | Sep 9 2024 16:03 utc | 86

Salaam to all.

I generally avoid agitprop/propaganda "news" organs of various entities, much less publicly comment on them. Today however, in a rare visit to rt.com, noted a headline that piqued interest as it seemed unbelievable.

"Muslim politician apologizes for shooting at image of Jesus"

https://www.rt.com/news/603697-swiss-politician-jesus-target/

Now one hopes it is absolutely clear to Christian believers that Jesus and Mary (salaam has and is always upon them both) are revered servants of God for (actual) Muslims, and what is most important to understand is that this very specific icon -- the mother and the child -- is one that was present in the Kabeh and the Prophet (Salaam be upon Him and upon His progeny) personally stood guard over that icon as all other idols were destroyed in that ancient house of God when Meccans surrendered to the Muslim army. This is precisely the reason why this very same icon remains untouched in Istanbul in Haggia Sophia.

Now doing a simple search on the name of this alleged "Muslim politician" turns up the following:

Sanija Ameti is a PhD researcher at University of Bern and holds a Master in Public and International Law from University of Zürich. Her regular publications focus on research topics such as cyberdefence, the law of peacetime cyberoperations and on security policy in general. Her doctoral thesis analyses the outsourcing of cybersecurity functions by states to private security companies in the light of the international rules on state responsibility.

During her stage at the Swiss Department of Foreign affairs she engaged with the legal process on the exportation of war material and the states review phase of the Tallinn Manual 2.0. She is actively involved in the think tank „foraus“, fostering a constructive foreign and security policy. Through her position in the executive committee of a Swiss national party and as a board member of Operation Libero she advocates for a secure and ethical digital transformation in the public sector.

https://www.swisscyberstorm.com/speaker/sanija-ameti/

Nothing about her "Islam" in that bio. Rather one gets the impression she is involved in "security" matters. She is a "muslim" (according to RT and other outlets) because she hails from a nominally Muslim nation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Libero

One wonders as to why Russia's propaganda organ that is directed towards Western readers would choose such inflammatory characterization and sow discord between these two Abrahamic faiths.

Just who is bothered and concerned about the potential unity between Christian and Muslim believers?

Posted by: sunof27 | Sep 9 2024 16:11 utc | 87

Doctors keep insisting I should take statins. What's in it for them? Do they get kickbacks?

Posted by: Lysias | Sep 9 2024 16:39 utc | 88

@petergrfstrm | Mon, 09 Sep 2024 12:12:00 GMT | 84

I began writing this because people are thinking about WWIII.

Yes. But the idea that this universe isn't real is a non-starter from an epistemiological point of view. Most beings would probably agree to that. Others argue that it might be a simulation, and those are making a mistake when conflating the feasibility of such a simulation with the real thing. That's a classic problem.

There's more. I'd argue we are principally unable to simulate our universe ourselves using whatever means we may come up with, because of the measuring problem. The idea to do that is very old, even pre-socratic. It's called the logos, somehow akin to a source code of Dasein, that we'd need to read out. It's funny that we keep coming back to it over and over.

Without a fully working model of our universe, we can't say we have a simulation. And this also applies to the notional simulation that runs us in a meta-space: there's no proof of that without the actual simulation being known to us, so we can check veracity.

There's still more. A structurally similar argument can be made about freedom of will, to refute either naturalistic ideas of causal determination, or religious ideas of god as the only agency.

The point is important. As a consequence, we are for real.

Posted by: persiflo | Sep 9 2024 17:11 utc | 89

> this universe

We experience the 3D+T representation of a subjective reality of which 4D+T is 'seen'. Each and everyone of us is a distinct 'universe'. The model is described in scripture - 10 dimensions plus Time. This same "revealed" information seems to map to the ADD model (thus rejecting Klein's KK theory) where the 4th 'seen' spatial dimension is large rather than 'minute curled'. Kaluza's insights, however, were 100% correct.

The Qur'an + Hadith provide a model of universe, including the numeric characteristics of dimensional collapse from 10D+T to 4D+T, alternating 180|pi phase changes in the interleaved dimensions, and the nature of the 'solutions' of the corresponding equations - they must be in Rational numbers.

Posted by: sunof27 | Sep 9 2024 18:57 utc | 90

Re: the Swiss women who fired pistol rounds at a Icon of the Theotokos

She was born in Bosnia to what appears to have been party members in Titoist Yugoslavia. (Therefore likely Atheists) Her name, Sanija Ameti , suggests ethnic Albanian. They moved to Switzerland when she was 3. She studied law. She is a city councilman in Zürich (Green Party)

She is a co-President of a diversity lobby group that seeks to destroy Swiss society. Appears to be a similar lobby group to the one in Sweden dedicated to destroying Swedish society. Her mentor appears to be a women named Zimmerman.

Conclusion - a useful idiot.

Posted by: Exile | Sep 9 2024 19:10 utc | 91

Canuck,

Word to the wise: don’t ever try to get into a argument with a German over validity of a Data set. You’ll get crushed every time.

🤣

Posted by: Exile | Sep 9 2024 19:21 utc | 92

And note, I believe Johan Kaspar is Schwabian. They are renowned for their ability to count and calculate.

Posted by: Exile | Sep 9 2024 19:23 utc | 93

Her mentor appears to be a women named Zimmerman.

Conclusion - a useful idiot.

Posted by: Exile | Sep 9 2024 19:10 utc | 92

Salaam Exile. Thanks for the info. That figures. So Q remaining is why RT.com plays supporting role for Zimmerman & co.

Posted by: sunof27 | Sep 9 2024 19:26 utc | 94

Doctors keep insisting I should take statins. What's in it for them? Do they get kickbacks?

Posted by: Lysias | Sep 9 2024 16:39 utc | 89

Yes. Health care is a racket. They are all salesmen.

Posted by: Bemildred | Sep 9 2024 19:44 utc | 95

@ Lysias | Sep 9 2024 16:39 utc | 89

seek out a naturopath and get some different views on what you are asking..

Posted by: james | Sep 9 2024 19:48 utc | 96

Posted by: Lysias | Sep 9 2024 16:39 utc | 89

For me the side effects were horrendous, it was a whole new life when I threw the Statins in the trash.

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Sep 9 2024 19:53 utc | 97

On the Unification Problem in Physics - T. Kaluza, 1921

https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.08616

The World in 11 Dimensions - A Tribute to Oskar Klein - M. Duff 2001

https://www.academia.edu/62983304/The_world_in_eleven_dimensions_A_tribute_to_Oskar_Klein

A fundamental disconnect between current conceptions of reality and revealed information. Time is not a dimension. Time is none other than Allah (Holy & Exalted):

"قَالَ اللَّهُ: يَسُبُّ بَنُو آدَمَ الدَّهْرَ، وَأَنَا الدَّهْرُ، بِيَدِي اللَّيْلُ وَالنَّهَارُ"

[T]he Messenger of Allah (ﷺ) said: Allah said: Sons of Adam inveigh against [the vicissitudes of] Time, and I am Time, in My hand is the night and the day

Hadith 4, 40 Hadith Qudsi
https://sunnah.com/qudsi40:4

Qur'an also strictly disabuses of the notion of a 'unification' of spatial and particle models. They ["the seven heavens and the seven earths"] are related ("similar in kind") but distinct aspects of the 'construct' that is "Creation".

Posted by: sunof27 | Sep 9 2024 20:28 utc | 98

Sunof27 @ 88, Exile @ 92:

Sanja Ameti certainly looks like a useful idiot. Her academic background specialising in cybersecurity suggests she may be linked to groups and organisations, even a Middle Eastern nation, with an interest in stirring up conflict between Christians and Muslims.

Posted by: Refinnejenna | Sep 9 2024 22:42 utc | 99

Looks like "frkorz" and his big list of posters for the week has been banned. I see that his big giant list on last week's "Week in Review" thread has been deleted. I thought it was interesting even though a bit cherry-picked. I posted too often in the past week so I'm glad it isn't there this week.

Posted by: Wisco | Sep 10 2024 0:19 utc | 100