Two weeks ago, when the Ukrainian army started its incursion into Russia's Kursk region, I had expected the Russia army to dispel the Ukrainians within a few days. That did not happen as it took time to bring enough troops towards that new frontline.
I also underestimated the size of the force the Ukrainians had made available for the operation. It is now estimated to be in the range of 10,000 to 30,000.
For now the Ukrainian army attack has mostly be stopped though it is still trying to expand what it holds in the very rural area.
Be that as it may – the operation, even when sustained longer, makes little sense.
It gives a temporary moral high to the Ukrainian army and may allow Zelenski and the British sponsors of this operation to prolong the war.
The plan in Kiev is not to negotiate but to prolong the war and to convince the west to further finance it. This would have the advantage of moving billions of additional dollar from western sources into the various pockets in Kiev with Zelenski and Yermak cashing in the largest share of it.
But all this comes at the cost of the Ukrainian defense in Donbas.
The Kursk incursion took so many troops from the defense of the Donbas that the front lines there can no longer be held up. It has also diverted scarce artillery ammunition which the Donbas defenders now lack. The Ukrainian defense in Donbas is currently crumbling with the Russian side taking several villages per day.
There was some hope expressed that Russia would divert troops from its Donbas attack towards Kursk. But the Kursk operation is on Russian ground where the Russian army is allowed to use conscript unit to defend the country. Conscripts are not allowed to take part in the operation within Ukraine. This gives the Russian army a large reserve that it can use against the incursion. It should be sufficient to end it.
Even at the beginning of the operation some supporters of Ukraine had feared that the incursion would break the Donbas defense:
Tatarigami_UA @Tatarigami_UA – 14:23 UTC · Aug 6, 2024
The situation in the Pokrovsk direction is critical, with defenses in several areas collapsed and yet to stabilize, largely due to a shortage of personnel. Diverting nearly a brigade to launch an assault on Kursk Oblast, which lacks strategic sense, borders on mental disability.
Various western oriented media have now taken a similar view:
- Russia Seeks to Turn Humbling Incursion Into Military Gains (archived) – New York Times
After being initially heralded as a brilliant military stroke, the Kursk operation could end up becoming a trap for the Ukrainian Army, these analysts said.
Ultimately, the expansion of the war to new areas will, over time, favor the side with bigger resources, the analysts said. With triple the population and a larger industrial base, that side remains Russia.
- Military briefing: Kursk incursion heaps pressure on Ukraine’s east (archived) – Financial Times
One Ukrainian artillery brigade commander in eastern Ukraine told the Financial Times that part of the reason for the Russian advance was Kyiv moving its scarce resources north.
His troops were back to rationing shells for their canons — the first time since US aid to Ukraine was held up by Congress — because ammunition had been reallocated for the incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.
…
While Kyiv does not comment on casualties, the incursion has already come at a material cost: Ukraine lost at least 51 pieces of valuable military equipment, including German Marder vehicles, US-made Stryker vehicles and Himars rockets, compared to 27 such losses on the Russian side, according to the open-source intelligence researcher Naalsio.
- Has Zelensky Walked Into Putin's Trap? – Newsweek
"There is a risk of overextending, and there is a risk that precious personnel and resources may be lost and that Putin may use this as a pretext for further escalation," said Michael A. Witt, professor of international business and strategy at King's Business School, London.
…
Emil Kastehelmi, a military expert from the Finland-based open-source intelligence analysis firm Black Bird Group, said that the incursion risks attrition of Ukraine's precious reserves when it still has issues with manpower.
- Russia closes in on eastern city despite Ukraine’s successes elsewhere – Washington Post
Hopes that Ukraine’s incursion into Russia would relieve pressure on the eastern front are not being realized as Moscow’s forces approach Pokrovsk.
Ukrainian servicemen in the Pokrovsk region say the Kursk incursion has not altered Russian attack — if anything, the pressure has increased in recent days.
There are many more, including alternative sources, tooting the same horn.
- Ukraine’s Kursk offensive is a huge strategic error – The Hill
- Relentless Russian Assaults Bite Deeper Into Ukraine’s Battered Donbas Defenses – Kyiv Post
- Back to the Bloodlands: Operation Krepost – Russo-Ukrainian War: The Kursk Operation – Big Serge
- Ukraine BufferZone in Kursk? Disaster Awaits (video) – Col Douglas Macgregor
- The Dangerous Obsession with Territory in a War of Attrition – Glenn Diesen
- Britain’s Kursk Invasion Backfires? – Kit Klarenberg
I agree that the incursion into Kursk, while tactically successful, makes little strategic sense as it will lead to large losses of men and ground in the Donbas. It is also too costly for the units involved in it.
But that holds only as long as Ukraine does not have another high card to play.
Could it be that it has more reserves or tricks that it could apply elsewhere?
I doubt this as I do not see where additional reserves could have been formed or come from.