Ukraine SitRep: Western Media Dismiss Ukraine's Kursk Offensive
Two weeks ago, when the Ukrainian army started its incursion into Russia's Kursk region, I had expected the Russia army to dispel the Ukrainians within a few days. That did not happen as it took time to bring enough troops towards that new frontline.
I also underestimated the size of the force the Ukrainians had made available for the operation. It is now estimated to be in the range of 10,000 to 30,000.
For now the Ukrainian army attack has mostly be stopped though it is still trying to expand what it holds in the very rural area.
Be that as it may - the operation, even when sustained longer, makes little sense.
It gives a temporary moral high to the Ukrainian army and may allow Zelenski and the British sponsors of this operation to prolong the war.
The plan in Kiev is not to negotiate but to prolong the war and to convince the west to further finance it. This would have the advantage of moving billions of additional dollar from western sources into the various pockets in Kiev with Zelenski and Yermak cashing in the largest share of it.
But all this comes at the cost of the Ukrainian defense in Donbas.
The Kursk incursion took so many troops from the defense of the Donbas that the front lines there can no longer be held up. It has also diverted scarce artillery ammunition which the Donbas defenders now lack. The Ukrainian defense in Donbas is currently crumbling with the Russian side taking several villages per day.
There was some hope expressed that Russia would divert troops from its Donbas attack towards Kursk. But the Kursk operation is on Russian ground where the Russian army is allowed to use conscript unit to defend the country. Conscripts are not allowed to take part in the operation within Ukraine. This gives the Russian army a large reserve that it can use against the incursion. It should be sufficient to end it.
Even at the beginning of the operation some supporters of Ukraine had feared that the incursion would break the Donbas defense:
Tatarigami_UA @Tatarigami_UA - 14:23 UTC · Aug 6, 2024The situation in the Pokrovsk direction is critical, with defenses in several areas collapsed and yet to stabilize, largely due to a shortage of personnel. Diverting nearly a brigade to launch an assault on Kursk Oblast, which lacks strategic sense, borders on mental disability.
Various western oriented media have now taken a similar view:
- Russia Seeks to Turn Humbling Incursion Into Military Gains (archived) - New York Times
After being initially heralded as a brilliant military stroke, the Kursk operation could end up becoming a trap for the Ukrainian Army, these analysts said.Ultimately, the expansion of the war to new areas will, over time, favor the side with bigger resources, the analysts said. With triple the population and a larger industrial base, that side remains Russia.
- Military briefing: Kursk incursion heaps pressure on Ukraine’s east (archived) - Financial Times
One Ukrainian artillery brigade commander in eastern Ukraine told the Financial Times that part of the reason for the Russian advance was Kyiv moving its scarce resources north.His troops were back to rationing shells for their canons — the first time since US aid to Ukraine was held up by Congress — because ammunition had been reallocated for the incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.
...
While Kyiv does not comment on casualties, the incursion has already come at a material cost: Ukraine lost at least 51 pieces of valuable military equipment, including German Marder vehicles, US-made Stryker vehicles and Himars rockets, compared to 27 such losses on the Russian side, according to the open-source intelligence researcher Naalsio.
- Has Zelensky Walked Into Putin's Trap? - Newsweek
"There is a risk of overextending, and there is a risk that precious personnel and resources may be lost and that Putin may use this as a pretext for further escalation," said Michael A. Witt, professor of international business and strategy at King's Business School, London.
...
Emil Kastehelmi, a military expert from the Finland-based open-source intelligence analysis firm Black Bird Group, said that the incursion risks attrition of Ukraine's precious reserves when it still has issues with manpower.
- Russia closes in on eastern city despite Ukraine’s successes elsewhere - Washington Post
Hopes that Ukraine’s incursion into Russia would relieve pressure on the eastern front are not being realized as Moscow’s forces approach Pokrovsk.Ukrainian servicemen in the Pokrovsk region say the Kursk incursion has not altered Russian attack — if anything, the pressure has increased in recent days.
There are many more, including alternative sources, tooting the same horn.
- Ukraine’s Kursk offensive is a huge strategic error - The Hill
- Relentless Russian Assaults Bite Deeper Into Ukraine’s Battered Donbas Defenses - Kyiv Post
- Back to the Bloodlands: Operation Krepost - Russo-Ukrainian War: The Kursk Operation - Big Serge
- Ukraine BufferZone in Kursk? Disaster Awaits (video) - Col Douglas Macgregor
- The Dangerous Obsession with Territory in a War of Attrition - Glenn Diesen
- Britain’s Kursk Invasion Backfires? - Kit Klarenberg
I agree that the incursion into Kursk, while tactically successful, makes little strategic sense as it will lead to large losses of men and ground in the Donbas. It is also too costly for the units involved in it.
But that holds only as long as Ukraine does not have another high card to play.
Could it be that it has more reserves or tricks that it could apply elsewhere?
I doubt this as I do not see where additional reserves could have been formed or come from.
Posted by b on August 21, 2024 at 15:02 UTC | Permalink
next page »They are continuing to reinforce their kursk grouping as well. They've been slamming into korenvo to break Northwoods compulsively. Their east west slide is slowing, despite Zelenskyy’s talk of buffer zones and bridge bombings. Troops are diverted from kharkiv where their on defense now.
The wests poo pooing of it is compensation to show that they weren't involved in the attack. It's a narrative(propaganda)
In reality they love it and have helped support and plan it. Up to and including authorizing private military companies with journalists to document it.
The kursk invasion is far from over, until there's signs they've removed the assault units back to povrosk, which will have to happen once they figure russsias offensive there has culminated.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 21 2024 15:09 utc | 3
“Judging Freedom” has not been on YouTube all this week. Anyone know what happened to Judge Napolitano and his show? Apology for off-topic; had wanted to hear what his regular guestsssay about Kursk.
Posted by: Pundita | Aug 21 2024 15:14 utc | 4
>Anyone know what happened to Judge Napolitano and his show?
He was given a one week ban for saying bad things. Maybe it will be a perma ban. He's on Rumble however.
Posted by: anonposter | Aug 21 2024 15:17 utc | 5
Soem Western Media has got the message. NPR hasn't. This morning they featured an "analyst" trumpeting the steady advances the AFU are making in Kursk. 1,200 square kilometers of territory! Meanwhile, not a word on the losses in the Donbas.
Posted by: Peter VE | Aug 21 2024 15:17 utc | 6
I find it interesting that the Kursk incursion is considered an "embarrassment" to Russia because it didn't detect the gathering of Ukraine's forces, but it's not embarrassing to NATO... which - supposedly! - has far better ISR. And also - again, supposedly! - didn't know about the planned attack.
So either NATO's ISR isn't all that great either, or... NATO are lying when they claim to have not known it was going to take place.
Or both Russian and NATO knew it would happen... and both let it happen
Posted by: Observer | Aug 21 2024 15:19 utc | 7
Patrick Lancaster reporting Ukrainian soldiers shooting pregnant Russian women.
I remember when it all started and these grinning savages hung a pregnant woman in the forest. An image that will haunt me forever.
Posted by: Anunnaki | Aug 21 2024 15:26 utc | 9
Anonposter@ 5 — Thank you for the info. But only a couple of his shows this week are on Rumble. I wonder what bad he said.
Posted by: Pundita | Aug 21 2024 15:26 utc | 10
B I'll just repost something I posted half an hour ago on the other thread. but before...
I might remind that from day one I was asking 300/3000/30000?
The number of brigades pointed to the last.
Early on the size of the LOC pointed to the last one.
The Yo-yo on a 20/30 km radius points to the last one.
Furthermore the countering of a Gordeevka counter wedge and attempt at Rylsk through the E38 seem to imply further entry points, even more units.
As I mention below, if we consider the non destroyed injured the AFU should be running out of meat in the Kursk scenario, but they still hold and attack.
Also something I mentioned several times, AFU gets to one million they go full lemming, maybe they can't sustain an army that big, I would be surprised if they call these attacks off before losing some hundreds of thousands.
My take on this mess is simple, this time they went too west to matter, contain and then wedge these attacks, ideally as the main battle line is breached and there can be a serious rout and the AFU can be slaughtered running for the river or stewed in a cauldron.
As for the river, I don't know how windy south ukraine is, but would bet some windy and cold winter days would be difficult for drones to fly as far or as well. That is the problem when there is little of the rest and drones do all the heavy duties.
"We have, I think, far too little information at the moment to do anything more than draw tentative conclusions; however, what we can do is focus on those elements that don’t seem to fit the narrative and generate a list of possible reasons for their misalignment.
Analysis of past events, to determine any ‘truth’, normally follows the detective’s principle of focusing on asking why, and that’s all we really can do, until somebody tells us the answers, and even then they are likely to only be partially true.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 21 2024 12:58 utc | 431
Yes, but the truth is that day D+15 there is still a yo-yo, by today's AFU attacks we're talking about taking or trying to take villages almost at a 30 km radius (that circle is strongly flattened, roughly by a third, in the R200 road axis where i assume most of the RF's effort is being made)
We're still talking of a stable 20k+ radius, 100km front, when "A total of more than 4,400 Ukrainian servicemen have been destroyed during the hostilities"... from out of 8.000?
Don't "not destroyed" WIA usually outnumber 2 to 1 those that were destroyed? Aren't some, maybe half, of those "not destroyed" liable for some weeks in hospital?
You're the one with military knowledge, I just do the numbers and they don't add up.
my 2 cents
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 21 2024 14:48 utc | 448"
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 21 2024 15:29 utc | 11
[email protected] Judge had Pepe on his show, Pepe was explaining how real Russians are not happy with the SlogMow, they want a decapitation strike....like yesterday....then Pepe talked about the original objectives of the then termed SMO, demilitarization.....and then the boo boo word, deNazification....and the Judge got banned.
It's a really informative interview.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 21 2024 15:30 utc | 12
Did the great New York Times really write that Russia has three times the population of Ukraine? One minute of Internet research disproves that. Russia had four times more in 2022, but after a loss of much heavily populated territory and with half fleeing to Western Europe, Russia has around ten times Ukraine's population! This can't be a NYT error, but propaganda.
Look at a map of population density in Ukraine. The Donbas is high so there are lots of small cities and towns that provides cover and bunkers for defense. The Russians will soon push past these urbanized areas and roll through open farmland.
Posted by: Carlton Meyer | Aug 21 2024 15:37 utc | 13
Sean@ 12 — Wow!! Thanks for the background. So — just one word. They might also be mad at him for Israel remarks. I see more of this week’s interviews are now added to Rumble, including Crooke.. Thanks again.
Posted by: Pundita | Aug 21 2024 15:40 utc | 14
The kursk invasion is far from over, until there's signs they've removed the assault units back to povrosk, which will have to happen once they figure russsias offensive there has culminated.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 21 2024 15:09 utc | 3
Yes, Syrsky has a serious case of sunk cost fallacy.
He'll be pouring the doomed after the damned long after the Western media has gone silent about Kursk.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 21 2024 15:50 utc | 15
“ With triple the population and a larger industrial base, that side remains Russia.”
Try quintuple the population. There were never 50M ukrops, nor can there be much more than 30 million remaining in country 404 at the present time, unless they are including gravesites.
Posted by: nwwoods | Aug 21 2024 15:50 utc | 16
I suspect that Ukraine's adherence to Kursk is partly due to the nature of the（neo)Nazi regime.
As I understand it, the old Nazi regimes, the Axis powers, basically had attributes of abnormal arrogance and ethnic superiority, but above all, they were hungry for "victory".
The more Hitler's gambit was successful, the more the Germans worshipped him.
The Axis Japanese Empire had a similar state structure. The leadership of the Japanese Empire is described as always feeling the need to advertise some form of victory to the people.
If modern Ukraine is considered similar to these former Axis states,
Perhaps this is a sign that the leadership feels that the mentality of the population cannot endure the state of ‘just fighting a defensive war’.
In the long term, the Axis powers were defeated anyway, but they nevertheless embarked on reckless actions when they wanted an immediate propagandisable war result to maintain the regime in the short term.
Such operations are justified in order to achieve some sort of flank result when there is psychological pressure to show the ruler some results soon, and when the main battlefield is not winnable.
Posted by: Nokaz | Aug 21 2024 16:02 utc | 18
"With triple the population and a larger industrial base, that side remains Russia." - New York Times
I find it hilarious that NYT claims again that Ukraine has only 3 times less population than Russia. Apparently they either do not count or define the Donbas as fighting for Ukraine when it suits them. In fact, Donbas and Crimea are fighting for Russia, so (whether you like it or not) they are part of the Russian reserves. That makes a few million more for Russia and a few less for Ukraine. Since millions have also fled Ukraine, its current population is probably less than 30, more likely 20. The factor by which Russia has a larger population is therefore not 3, as repeatedly claimed, but probably between 5 and 7!
Otherwise, I would summarize the Kurk offensive as follows: Ukraine has opened a new front and created a cauldron for its own troops. Russia couldn't have done it better.
Posted by: xblob | Aug 21 2024 16:05 utc | 19
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Kursk Direction: Fighting Along the Entire Front Line, Continuation of AFU AttacksWhat is known as of 1:00 pm on August 21, 2024
In the Kursk Region, heavy fighting is underway, with Ukrainian formations continuing attempts to advance in several directions.
🔻In the Glushkovo District, the situation remains tense amid the destruction of bridges, but no attempts at advancement by Ukrainian formations have been observed so far. However, the enemy is showing activity to the east.
🔻In the Korenevo District, the AFU are attacking near Korenevo, with Russian forces currently holding the settlement and destroying enemy equipment in the fields to the east. Northeast, in the Olhovka-Matveyevka area, the enemy also tried to advance towards Matveyevka, but it is unclear how successful they were.
To the north, the enemy tried to advance towards Alexandrovka from the east, but was detected and at least partially destroyed in the area of platform 367 km.
In addition, there are highly contradictory news from the vicinity of Snagost, where the enemy also attacked over several days.
🔻In the Sudzha District, fighting also continues. In the Martynivka area, based on footage from objective control, the enemy was able to advance east of the village, where they were then hit by artillery fire.
In the Spalnoye area, a large group of the enemy was captured by the Russian Armed Forces. However, the liberation of the settlement was not reported, and it is likely that the village remains in the gray zone.
Enemy strikes on the rear areas of the region continue. In addition to several drones intercepted at night, in the Bolshesoldatskoye District, as a result of the drop of an explosive device from a UAV on a passing vehicle, one local resident was killed and two were injured.
https://t.me/rybar_in_english/17141
Posted by: Down South | Aug 21 2024 16:05 utc | 20
Our source reports that Zelensky's Kursk adventure had the following goals:1. Transfer of Russian troops from the front to the Kursk region.
2. Announcement of Mobilization in Russia.
3. Creation of panic in Russia
4. Kyiv's attempt to "sell" this adventure to sponsors as a large-scale success of the entire 2024 offensive, thereby knocking out new supplies of weapons and money.
5. Raising the stakes in the game with an emphasis on the Kremlin's response to slamming TNW at Ukraine.
6. Disruption of the peace case
7. Encourage Ukrainians to go to the TCC against the backdrop of such a "success".
8. Gas blackmail of Europe
9. Seizure of the Kursk NPP and its exchange for Zaporizhzhya NPP
That is why the Western press warmed up all these messages, but as we can see, the Kremlin did nothing of what the Presidential Office wanted. Even on the peace case they spoke evasively, saying that the previously put forward proposals are no longer relevant. And only Medvedev said that the war will continue until Kyiv capitulates.
As for the gas case, as we understand, "agreement" is for now.
It is too early to talk about the failure of the Kursk adventure, but as we see, Zelensky now has to saturate that section of the front with even more manpower and equipment, so that the initial PR does not become anti-PR in the end.
https://t.me/legitimniy/18574
Posted by: Down South | Aug 21 2024 16:13 utc | 21
Observer 7
If Nato didn't know that socialism.is a better way to run a country than plutocracy , they wouldn't be attacking Russia.
Similarly in Palestine if USUKIS could subvert Islam, they wouldn't want to genocide it, but most Muslims thought USUKIS were capable of civilisation. Not much point in living in USUKIS when they harvest your location to murder your family.
On both cheeks of the same backside , Ukraine and Israel, radical thinking has begun. Antlantacists as Putin and Lavrov originally predicted are considering the aerobatics of a mid somersault , backward U turn.
And in the Muslim world, everybody is considering the backward flipflop spin how to make their home economies work, instead of flocking to the shade of Satan's vampire wings.
Posted by: Giyane | Aug 21 2024 16:13 utc | 22
Judge Napolitano doesn't show up properly in Rumble search. Use this link:
https://rumble.com/c/JudgingFreedom
Posted by: anonposter | Aug 21 2024 16:16 utc | 23
I'm suprised ther has been no mention of a large scale attack on the Moscow area, i hear from the bbc radio at 1 pm news.
I'm not sure but i think it was 40 or 50 drones, most shot down a dozen or more getting through.
Is this Gaddafi or Sadan Hussan in iraq, all over again ?
NATO is fighting Russia. Russia needs to wake up and hit those platforms.... UK
Posted by: Mark2 | Aug 21 2024 16:17 utc | 24
Posted by: Pundita | Aug 21 2024 15:40 utc | 14
I've been watching Judge Nap on X - https://x.com/Judgenap, as Rumble is banned in France. But there doesn't seem to be his full normal programme.
Posted by: laguerre | Aug 21 2024 16:19 utc | 25
Another good Judge Napolitano link, including links to explanation of his ban:
https://rumble.com/v5bce45-the-interview-that-got-judge-napolitano-banned-from-youtube.html
Posted by: anonposter | Aug 21 2024 16:19 utc | 26
Ukraine being anble to attack and even advance into Russia is a sure sign of their courage and high motivation.
No forcefully pushed soldiers would be able to do so specialy because they would achieve nothing.
How is that called: immense will to fight dispite the assured defeat in the end?
We never talked here about the Ukro motivation, their hate and will to die for the western interests.
Posted by: vargas | Aug 21 2024 16:20 utc | 27
Ukraine's population was 44 million. Estimates were 8 million fled to the EU and 3 million to Russia at the start. The area Russia absorbed was around 8 to 10 million. Ukraine has done its best to force the civilian population back West though at gunpoint if they had to...who knows how successful that has been. Ukraine has something like half of its original population. If it wasn't for the billions of dollars and goods flooding in they wouldn't be able to hold sustain the war. This really is Russia vs USA/Ukraine.IMHO the only questions that remains is will the US/NATO send division/corps level sized troop deployments into Ukraine when the Ukrainian military falls apart. That will be the only way to keep the war going at that point. If they do...what will Russia do in response?
Posted by: Goldhoarder | Aug 21 2024 16:24 utc | 28
For those blocked from Rumble, try this:
https://judgenap.com/my-first-strike-on-free-speech/#google_vignette
Posted by: anonposter | Aug 21 2024 16:27 utc | 29
Arch [email protected] is quick to ridicule western military math, but be assured they can calculate the amount of meat for the recipe as quick as any Russian scholar. Meat times time, ties more Russian assets down. It does not hurt the Kingdom of Britkrainia who use the Vampire approach using proxies to gather food.....er, fodder.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 21 2024 16:27 utc | 30
Arch Bungle @ 16
He'll be pouring the doomed after the damned long after the Western media has gone silent about Kursk.
Maybe Kursk incursion, initial success or failure, is part of a bigger fall offensive of some sort, the first move, another prong on Belgorod or Bryansk or Belarus or Zaporizhzhia, whatever, so even if a bigger breakthrough and the NPP seizure failed tying up Russian forces in Kursk for months to come is part of that bigger plan. IOW losing the Kursk NPP is not the big deal it seems to NATO strategists, maybe to AFU propagandists, Budanov, but to the Pentagon it was just the cherry on the cake, but the cake is still baking.
Seen this, pretty ugly? Obviously blowing up the bridges means the AFU has no intention of moving forward, but they seem really set on keeping the Russians back and chasing their tail. The smart move would have been to blow up the bridges and beat a fast retreat. Maybe they're dumb, maybe they have something else planned.
The enemy is actively attacking guided pontoons across the Seim River
Supposedly lots more NATO stuff pouring into Romania and Poland, and Belarus is on high alert. Maybe the big NATO plan is to extend the front from the Black Sea to the Baltic - IOW they are done with the SMO conceit and going to war? Don't think worthless NATO infantry, think naval and air force power.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 21 2024 16:29 utc | 31
Various commentators have said that Russia Federation should do A (move the Donbass front forward) before B (clearing Kursk), and have given explanations ranging from tactical to logistic about this. But another simple point is that B is easier to sell to the public a month or two down the road ("we still need to complete that mop-up operation in our Kursk oblast"), whereas if things bog down with A, at least on the margin the sentiment for action could diminish.
Posted by: Call it what u will | Aug 21 2024 16:32 utc | 32
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 21 2024 15:29 utc | 11
I’ve answered your question on the other board, feel free to repost it here, or I can do so. It’s quite academic, which is shorthand for, oblique, lengthy and a bit rambly sorry. It does though explain why the West is ditching this dud.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 21 2024 16:32 utc | 33
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Massive UAV attack on Bryansk and Moscow RegionsLast night, the AFU carried out a massive drone attack on several Russian regions. Air defense forces intercepted 45 enemy UAVs, with the majority shot down over the Bryansk and Moscow Regions.
▪️23 Ukrainian drones were intercepted in the airspace of the Bryansk Region. The first targets were detected around 1 AM, and the air defense operation continued until 7 AM, as the UAVs were deployed in "waves". However, no casualties or damage were reported in the region.
▪️Another 11 drones were shot down in the airspace of the Moscow Region, in the area of Podolsk south of Moscow. Similar to the Bryansk Region, the UAVs approached in waves and were intercepted as they neared the local air defense systems. No destruction or casualties were reported in the region either.
▪️3 drones were intercepted in the Kaluga Region near the border with the Bryansk Region, the air defense forces in the Kursk Region shot down two UAVs and two missiles, and six drones were intercepted in the Belgorod Region.
▪️In the area of Novoshakhtinsk in the Rostov Region, air defense units reportedly shot down a HIMARS ATACMS missile from the AFU. The munition fell on an empty field, causing a grass fire, and nearby buildings suffered window damage from the blast wave. There were no casualties.
❗️This is the first recorded case of the enemy using the ATACMS MLRS against targets on internationally recognized Russian territory. Likely, this was just a test launch, and the opponent will soon attempt combined attacks involving this type of missile.
https://t.me/rybar_in_english/17142
Posted by: Down South | Aug 21 2024 16:37 utc | 34
The chance of more offensives without a huge number of Nato troops embedded in the AFU is miniscule. Meaning, not the chance of offensive, but the chance of Ukraine making 'organic' attacks out of its own forces, manpower or equipment is miniscule.
And so it was proven, a massive number of Polish, Georgian, British, American and other Nato troops were embedded in the Kursk attack. If that is the case, then one can easily see high potential for other groups already being formed to attack other points of border.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 21 2024 16:39 utc | 35
Hints that US looks to expand its war into EU and draw lines for a new Iron Curtain
Trieste being used to create a new trade port?
Strategic Culture
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/08/21/what-the-hell-is-happening-in-trieste/
Posted by: ld | Aug 21 2024 16:40 utc | 36
from end of the old Ukraine thread
ZH has a posting up with the title
Ukraine Sends One Of Largest Ever Drone Attacks On Russian Capital
the quotes
Russia on Wednesday says its anti-air defenses have successfully thwarted a major Ukrainian drone attack against the capital of Moscow, having shot down eleven inbound drones in total.
"The echeloned defense of Moscow against enemy UAVs made it possible to repel all attacks. This was one of the largest attempts to attack Moscow with the help of drones of all time," Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said in a Telegram post early Wednesday morning.Russia's defense ministry said the effort to target the capital was part of a broader cross-border attack which included 45 drones total sent by Ukraine across different regions overnight, including:
11 shot down over the Moscow region23 intercepted over the Bryansk region
6 over Belgorod,
3 over the Kaluga region
2 over Kursk
....
Meanwhile, former president Dmitry Medvedev, who serves as deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, has reiterated that the ongoing Kursk incursion means peace talks are impossible until Ukraine is completely defeated. "The empty chatter of intermediaries that no one had appointed about the wonderful peace is over. Everyone understands everything now, even though they do not say it out loud,” Medvedev wrote on Telegram.He concluded his message in caps with: "There will be NO MORE NEGOTIATIONS UNTIL THE COMPLETE DEFEAT OF THE ENEMY!"
Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 21 2024 16:41 utc | 37
[email protected] have been moving assets into theatre for over two years. The main advantage they have for now, the majority of NATO forces aligned against Russia are stationed all along the NATO countries that border Russia. They have also amassed major armour and air assets in these countries.
They have no need to come to Russia, Russia will come to them. Otherwise any portion of Ukraine that still functions will be a terror state against Russia.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 21 2024 16:44 utc | 38
IOW they are done with the SMO conceit and going to war? Don't think worthless NATO infantry, think naval and air force power.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 21 2024 16:29 utc | 32
I dunno, I’m struggling to believe that the US/NATO would launch a major direct assault in the run-up to a fraught US election campaign. They would be going up against a near-peer adversary, not an undermanned, under-equipped, effectively militia level force. Setbacks and losses would not make for good visuals, and leave the narrative even more exposed to the scrutiny of reality.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 21 2024 16:57 utc | 39
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 21 2024 15:29 utc | 11
I’ve answered your question on the other board, feel free to repost it here, or I can do so. It’s quite academic, which is shorthand for, oblique, lengthy and a bit rambly sorry. It does though explain why the West is ditching this dud.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 21 2024 16:32 utc | 34
Thank you , and I don’t disagree with anything you wrote.
Neither do I disagree that so far AFU didn’t achieve anything until now, nor that it’s unlikely to achieve later.
My question was about the likely size of the initial Kursk capper and likelihood that it had sprouted new insertion points (and further forces)
Also about my estimate of at least as many wounded recovering as destroyed.
Thank you
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 21 2024 17:05 utc | 40
Thanks, Bernhard, for an informed, calm and nuanced summary of the situation. I will however take some people to task now.
When this was in the opening day, I immediately warned the gung-ho "Russian invinciblists" about claiming premature victory. I called your self-assured statement of "one or two days" ridiculous. I stand by that, how could I not? It was ridiculous.
If something Very Bad happens (I think we can all agree that thousands of murdered Russians on Russian soil is a Very Bad thing,) it's important not to spread panic and go gloom and doom. Yes, I realize that. However, it's equally important neither to underestimate the enemy nor the challenges we will face. Mao, paraphrasing: "the enemy is a paper tiger, but he is also a real tiger." In fact, the gung-ho cheerleaders persisted for weeks and seem to have been somewhat calmed only by your previous posting per August 19th. "One or two days, one or two weeks, what's the difference?" "I doubt we'll hear anything about Kursk in a month."
For calling bullshit on this discourse, I was branded a troll and told to piss off. This turn of events is hardly uncommon here, and it's a sign of a sick mentality on this forum.
On to other things - and I really am sorry that I feel like I have to address "internal policy" stuff, when there's so many more important things to discuss - it seems increasingly obvious that this has evolved into a battle for the Second World in its strife to break free of the sole remaining Imperialist superpower (or you could call it global Capital. Maybe.) The irony is that Putin seemingly has ended up in the role of the "reluctant revolutionary" - a moderate wanting to be a friend of the West, he just didn't want to outright sell out his country as some did before him. Alas, every conciliatory move he made was seen as a weakness and exploited upon, so now he finds himself where he can't either win or maintain his nation's sovereignty without utterly crushing NATO as an institution.
The contradictions are getting increasingly sharper, and it's now more important than ever to reach out across ideological differences to find tactical partners to oppose the Hegemon. I know that voting is essentially pointless, but if you are to vote, don't vote on domestic issues. Vote on international ones.
Anyway, best regards and wishes for a speedy recovery, Thomas
Posted by: Tichy | Aug 21 2024 17:06 utc | 41
And so it was proven, a massive number of Polish, Georgian, British, American and other Nato troops were embedded in the Kursk attack. If that is the case, then one can easily see high potential for other groups already being formed to attack other points of border.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 21 2024 16:39 utc | 36
They already did on the counter wedges and E 38 (I guess)
Might do it again elsewhere tough
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 21 2024 17:08 utc | 42
Judge Napolitano can be found on Rumble...His YUTube has been blocked...
Posted by: Meriem Kheira Peille | Aug 21 2024 17:09 utc | 43
Every day there is 30 seconds of tv news about Ukraine occupying Kursk.
Assume Russia has killed about 4500 Ukrainian soldiers in Kursk in 16 days.
That is, for the Kursk region alone, an average of 281 Ukrainian dead per day.
At 30 seconds of tv news per day, this means one second of tv news costs Ukraine 9 lives.
Posted by: Passerby | Aug 21 2024 17:09 utc | 44
In the Pokrovsk area the Russians are not just making fast progress toward that city, but have also turned south into the rear of the Ukrainian defences there. They can drive all the way down to Kurakhove, taking the last major defence line along the heights and forcing the Ukrainians to surrender all territory east of there or risk being surrounded. With these areas of the remaining strong defensive lines in the south taken, and Pokrovsk taken, the Russians will face a much less fortified, urban, industrialized and hilly terrain. In addition, the taking of Niu York/Toretsk and an advance toward Konstyantinivka will force the Ukrainians to exit all positions east of the line between Toretsk and Konstyantinivka and south of Chasiv Yar - yet more of the Ukrainian defensive line removed. An utter disaster for Ukraine taking place before the rains come in October.
At the same time the rapid devolution of the Ukrainian forces into an infantry relying on lightly armoured and wheeled vehicles (MRAPS - mine resistant ambush protected, also known as light tactical vehicles) such as the Iveco LAV (Norway), the Oshkosh M ATV (US), MaxxPro MRAP (US), Bushmaster AUV (Australia), Roshel Senator (Canada), together with the hardly armoured US Humvee and SUV "technicals" with a heavy machine gun on the back, and lots of civilian cars for mobility is very evident in the rapidly diminishing losses of AFV/IFV/APC vehicles reported by the Russians. In the more open, flat, less industrialized and fortified areas that the Russians will be moving into such a mix of vehicles and men on foot will make easy targets for fixed wing ground attack aircraft, helicopters, drones, guided artillery, and Russian tanks and armoured fighting vehicles (e.g. BMP-3s). The winter months will even remove what natural cover such troops will have, and provide a nightmare for the wheeled MRAPS and Humvees while the Russians still have predominantly tracked vehicles designed to operate in a Russian/Ukrainian winter (and much better during the "season of mud" that will start in mid-October).
The destruction of Ukrainian anti-aircraft, anti-battery radar and EW systems will just compound this. As will the rapid diminution of Ukrainian artillery at a rate of about 30 a day (900 a month). As will the very significant reduction in the levels of financial and military support being provided to Ukraine.
Ukrainian losses for August 21st, as reported by the Russian defence ministry:
- Sever Group (Kharkov): 100 troops, 3 motor vehicles, 3 artillery pieces.
- Zapad Group (Luhansk area): 470 troops, 1 tank, 4 motor vehicles, 2 artillery pieces.
- Yug Group (Donetsk north): 700 troops, 3 motor vehicles, 8 artillery pieces, 2 EW systems.
- Tsetr Group (Donetsk south): 630 troops, 1 HMV, 12 motor vehicles, 8 artillery pieces.
- Vostok Group (southern front): 130 troops, 1 IFV, 5 motor vehicles, 3 artillery pieces.
- Dnepr Group: 30 troops, 5 motor vehicles, 2 artillery pieces.
In total: 2,060 troops (about 2,500 with undercounting: 75,000 a month). About average.
1 tank, 1 IFV, 1 HMV, 29 motor vehicles. The previous day there were no AFV/IFV/APC losses, underlining the transformation of the Ukrainians to an infantry using light armoured vehicles, Humvees, “technicals” (pickup trucks with mounted weapons), and civilian vehicles for mobility.
26 artillery pieces, a bit lower than normal, at a rate of around 800 per month. 2 EW systems. These are still catastrophic daily loss levels.
In addition, the Russians have become adept at shooting down and jamming Ukrainian (i.e. Western manufactured) guided bombs, missiles, rockets and the mostly locally-made drones.
This waas always a trap to begin with. Country 404 is running out of [T]ime and not even the 'low orbit' starlink sattelites would be able to do anything about it.
Posted by: AI | Aug 21 2024 17:12 utc | 46
In Bolshoe Soldatskoe (Kursk region), a Ukrainian drone struck a civilian car.
The woman inside died on the spot from her injuries, and two more people were hospitalized with injuries.
@voenkorKotenok
Posted by: MiniMo | Aug 21 2024 17:13 utc | 47
"War is war. Either go to war or surrender. The enemy has now been on our territory for 2 weeks."
State TV: Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin is pushing for Russia to switch from Special Military Operation to full scale war in light of Ukraine's recent invasion of the Kursk region.
Posted by: MiniMO | Aug 21 2024 17:14 utc | 48
"I also underestimated the size of the force the Ukrainians had made available for the operation. It is now estimated to be in the range of 10,000 to 30,000."
People here are always underestimating NATO-backed Ukraine and overestimating Russians ability to fight the war.
Posted by: MiniMO | Aug 21 2024 17:16 utc | 49
Posted by: MiniMo | Aug 21 2024 17:13 utc | 48
That’s terrorism, not war.
Posted by: MiniMO | Aug 21 2024 17:14 utc | 49
As far as I understand things, Russia’s response in Kursk has been designated as a counter-terrorism operation. In your view, what has changed?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 21 2024 17:20 utc | 50
psychohistorian@38
....Russia’s Security Council, has reiterated that the ongoing Kursk incursion means peace talks are impossible until Ukraine is completely defeated.....
Oh dear, that doesn't sound promising......at all. No decapitation strike on the horizon, unless Britkrainia's drones score a miracle and pull a decapitation of their own. Unintended consequences, and all that.....
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 21 2024 17:21 utc | 51
His YUTube has been blocked...
Posted by: Meriem Kheira Peille | Aug 21 2024 17:09 utc | 44
In the West there is freedom of speech, provided nobody hears you.
Posted by: Passerby | Aug 21 2024 17:23 utc | 52
Posted by: Roger | Aug 21 2024 17:09 utc | 46
Nicely put.
Do you happen to have monthly (or quarterly, or even daily) RF kills (just personnel) for the whole SMO?
If so I'd be grateful, just let me know and then post as two columns on the open thread.
Thank you
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 21 2024 17:24 utc | 53
PeterVE@1517
Cannot precisely recall whether was BillieGates or Our Little Georgie of Our $orrows who is the primary financial contributor to the alleged National Public Radio. But as they are two peas in a Globalist pod, it matters only that the hyper wealthy have operative control over NPR.
Posted by: aristodemos | Aug 21 2024 17:26 utc | 54
Expanding on my point above:
I know that voting is essentially pointless, but if you are to vote, don't vote on domestic issues. Vote on international ones.
Posted by: Tichy | Aug 21 2024 17:06 utc | 42
https://alternativforsverige.se/politik/forsvar-och-sakerhet/
Okay, so this is AfS (Swedish version of AfD. They're practically Nazis. I chose them precisely because of that.)
Excerpt, Google translated with some manual corrections by me:
Yes to independence - No to NATOSweden should not be a NATO member
Tear up the host country agreement with NATOJoining NATO is a security policy risk for Sweden and thus the rest of the Nordic region. NATO is an institution where the member states renounce defense and security policy self-determination and submit to foreign military and political power. NATO has completely different geopolitical interests than a small neutral country like Sweden. At any time, Sweden risks being drawn into wars or conflicts that we ourselves did not choose and that do not concern us in the slightest. Sweden has already participated to an excessive extent in NATO-led wars that endanger our neutrality. International interventions where Sweden exercises military power must be preceded by a referendum where the Swedish people have the right of veto. NATO membership greatly impairs Sweden's ability to act as peace negotiator in war or mediator in conflicts.
Alternative for Sweden does not believe that joining an alliance guarantees peace or even help in the event of war. Ultimately, our own security can only be secured through our own defense capability. History is full of examples of how countries that were connected to an alliance still stood alone when the attack was a fact. Although of course it cannot be ignored that joining NATO may mean that we receive limited help from some countries in the alliance, we are convinced that the risks of NATO outweigh the benefits. Swedish NATO membership means that the risk of Sweden being dragged into war increases rather than decreases. Furthermore, the host country agreement with NATO should also be torn up because it enables NATO to place troops and weapons - including nuclear weapons - in our country. To the extent that Sweden is to seek an alliance, it should be with our Nordic neighbors, with whom we have common interests and who do not risk drawing us into foreign conflicts. However, since the Nordic countries are now, or are about to become, NATO members, it is not realistic that such an alliance can be realized in the short term. Therefore, heavily upgraded defense capabilities and developed bilateral defense cooperation with the Nordic countries, above all Finland, remain the two most important measures right now.
Posted by: Tichy | Aug 21 2024 17:27 utc | 55
@Posted by: Tichy | Aug 21 2024 17:06 utc | 42
As the West has so repeatedly shown it wants vassals not friends/allies with some level of independence. Putin made this mistake at the beginning of his presidency and has been through a long slow re-education process, as you say turning him into a "reluctant revolutionary". Russia still has much of the legacy of neoliberalism, and quite a few of the oligarch thieves of the 1990s have been allowed to keep their stolen wealth, such as Roman Abramovich who is seen as having a close relationship with Putin; Deripaska is another. Corruption was also allowed to foster, with much of it only starting to be addressed in the recent government purges and arrests. With the vast majority of those oligarchs being Zionist Jews, this has also created an Israel blindspot for Putin, only recently it seems is this error being slowly and painfully recognized. Why for example are not the Russians providing much more support to the Syrians to expel the US occupiers, destroy the US vassal Kurds, shoot down the Israeli planes bombing Syria and Lebanon, and retake the Golan?
The Chinese Party-state is light years ahead of Putin's governing apparatus in understanding the geopolitical realities and driving development for the national interest and the benefit of the people. Xi is head and shoulders above Putin, and Russia needs to become much more like China if it is to flourish. It is getting there, but painfully slowly - much of the moves forced upon it by Western sanctions.
Putin miscalculated badly in 2022 with the small size of his force, and once again being taken in by Western mendacity during negotiations. Its now mid 2024 and we are seeing a different Putin, but that is a reluctant Putin although his carefulness has allowed Russia to withstand the sanctions while now reaching the point where both Ukrainian capabilities and the Western ability/willingness to provide extra support is rapidly waning. Hopefully, we now have the "new" Putin who will carry out the war until unconditional Ukrainian surrender and drive to the borders of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova. Anything else, apart from perhaps giving the hot potato of Lviv to Poland, should be counted as a loss and will simply serve to continue the Western aggression.
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 21 2024 17:05 utc | 41
I did say it was oblique! It’s not the size of the incursion, which has grown, it’s the ability to sustain any gains, or the point of those gains. The two pseudopods, as predicted, retracted lest they were cut-off and cut up, so they are repeatedly battering to go North and West, and, yes, they will make progress, but at what cost. Logistic rates are a function of combat intensity, the more they attack the more supplies are consumed. At some point they either increase their logistic capability, or reduce the intensity. I have a feeling a lot of the abandoned vehicles had had their tanks siphoned to keep others running.
As to numbers, possibly going up, but don’t forget how many are replacements, the 80th Air Assault, it’s been reported, has already been withdrawn, how many are needed to secure the ever-expanding perimeter, the German problem at Kursk (they ran out of infantry not armour).
As to casualties, they are increasingly relying on infantry to fight against a force who has fire superiority, especially in support. I’d say they losing more than they can sustain to make any operational impact. As to wounded, most will never return to combat in the time needed to be replacements, modern weapons are so much more deadly than before, especially warheads over=matching armour and the accuracy of indirect fire. Interesting psychological point, after two weeks troops combat become focused more on self-survival, as they loose their feeling of immunity, good for veterans as defenders, not so good if you want to press an attack.
The Russians have slowed the move towards Pokrovsk, because they’ve opened a new front, does that suggest they are that concerned about Kursk? Expect more breathless reporting about more Ukrainian gains, new fronts, but the real litmus test is the state of the Donbas+ offensive. Hope that helped a bit, though I can’t answer specifics, only try to model likely outcomes, I don’t know enough, and I’m not guesstimating, sorry.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 21 2024 17:30 utc | 57
Posted by: anonposter | Aug 21 2024 15:17 utc | 5
Wrong. His guest, Pepe Escobar, said something that YT objected to in a June program.
Posted by: morongobill | Aug 21 2024 17:35 utc | 58
Dont know who lies more, Biden admin on economy or the MSM on what is happening in ukraine
Posted by: Dogon Priest | Aug 21 2024 17:35 utc | 59
Posted by: Tichy | Aug 21 2024 17:06 utc | 42
Personally I’d like that Super-power believing in itself, going through a process of self-reflection (look how far MAGA have moved from RINO) than it being run by Peter-Principle clowns who are presided over by increasingly dysfunctional institutional clowns, who fear their power is slipping. Reflective guy with a hangover, or schizophrenic with a shotgun?
Posted by: Milites | Aug 21 2024 17:38 utc | 60
can someone explain why this website is allowed to exist, and not crapflooded/ddossed to hell like years ago? is b who is presumably an old man, a tech genius that could be working at google or apple? i doubt it. so what gives? is there supposed to be enough lies/pr in the comment section that its worthwhile for big bro to keep this place up and running? i just feel like it wouldnt be that hard to take this website down and theres got to be at least some powerful rich person that wouldnt like the discussions happening here to be happening. so why are they happening?
Posted by: fart | Aug 21 2024 17:41 utc | 61
Posted by: Roger | Aug 21 2024 17:28 utc | 57
He did not miscalculate, that was the largest force he could field and sustain logistically. He took a gamble, it didn’t pay off, but he HAD a plan B, the West did not.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 21 2024 17:42 utc | 62
can someone explain why this website is allowed to exist
Posted by: fart | Aug 21 2024 17:41 utc | 62
It's a honeypot.
Posted by: Passerby | Aug 21 2024 17:42 utc | 63
In the West there is freedom of speech, provided nobody hears you.
Posted by: Passerby | Aug 21 2024 17:23 utc | 53
_____
Now that's an epigraph for the ages! Although I'd substitute "the USA" for "the West" because, as we increasingly see, there is no freedom of speech in Europe.
Posted by: malenkov | Aug 21 2024 17:43 utc | 64
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 21 2024 17:24 utc | 54
Here’s a site that Andrei Martyanov regularly features in his videos, indeed he uses it in his latest one:
https://mskvremya.ru/article/2023/1520-poteri-ukrainy-za-vremya-spetsoperatsii
though you will need a translation add-on if you aren’t fluent in Russian. It appears to allow the setting of any date parameters that one wishes. I’ve only had a brief play though, so may not be exactly what you’re after.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 21 2024 17:44 utc | 65
The questions now facing us are the same questions that faced us in 2022. 1. How will the Russians deal with the problem of remnant Ukraine. 2. Will the Russians impose reverse sanctions on Europe.
The second question may become superfluous. The Europeans are doing the work for the Russians and are still imposing sanctions on themselves. But they’re still partially dependent on Russia for fuel and raw materials so there’s room there for reverse sanctions should the Russians decide to impose them.
The first question is unresolved as yet. As many opinions as there are people to give them. But a recent discussion elsewhere led to a consideration of a (possibly unlikely!) solution to the problem of remnant Ukraine. It’s one that’s been hovering in the air for a couple of years now – that the Ukrainians might solve the problem themselves!
………………………….
With reference to the Putin statement – “Russia President Vladimir Putin, Address to Security Council, August 12, 2024: Now it is clear why the Kiev regime refused our proposals to return to a peaceful settlement plan, as well as proposals from interested and neutral mediators.” I believe that statement has a wider application than is immediately apparent.
The Russians are faced with a problem few on our side of the fence recognise. The problem of remnant Ukraine.
For eastern Ukraine the future is clear. The four oblasts will become Russian and as much or as little of the remaining Kharkov-Odessa arc as the Russians see fit. Maybe more. We don’t know yet. That leaves the Russians with a problem. Remnant Ukraine.
Remnant Ukraine the Russians will not wish to absorb or even to occupy. We must remember that in early 2022 the expectation in the West had been that the Russians would defeat the Ukrainians in short order but then would find themselves faced with a long and wearing guerilla war. Ukraine would then become “Russia’s Afghanistan” in the phrase that all were using at the time, and the weapons we had provided would be suitable for that as they were not suitable for the combined arms warfare the Ukrainians found themselves in the event facing. As Borrell pointed out, so too the training.
That’s because we had trained them before 2022 in urban warfare and small unit fighting. Had the Russians “taken Kiev in three days” as we expected, that would not have been the end of it. They would then have found themselves facing an insurrection. Supported by the West and with a large number of suitably armed fighters determined to keep the fight going that would have been an insurrection very difficult to cope with. That was the same problem we faced in Iraq. Defeating the Iraqis was child’s play. Occupying and pacifying them afterwards, not.
The Russians sidestepped that problem in a way we had not expected. Instead of finding themselves chasing all over the country rooting out fighters, they established themselves behind secure lines and allowed the fighters, and as much equipment with them as the West cared to supply, to come to them to be destroyed. We’re now seeing the end of that process of destruction of fighters and equipment.
That still leaves the problem of remnant Ukraine.
If left unoccupied remnant Ukraine will be, to use Sleboda’s term, a “zone of destabilisation and insecurity”. Budanov or his like will be running assassination or sabotage missions into Russia indefinitely. Missile attacks, using missiles supplied by the West but the use of which the Western powers can deny responsibility for, will remain a common occurrence. The Russians will find themselves no more secure than they were before 2022.
If occupied, remnant Ukraine would need heavy and manpower intensive policing.
It would not be the drain on Russian resources that it would have been in 2022. Most of the ultra-nationalists will have fled. Much of the equipment that would have been at their disposal has been destroyed in the killing fields of the Donbass. And the population has been sharply reduced since 2022, mostly by emigration but also by the fighting. Guesses on that – they can only be guesses – range from 17 million to 25 million. By the time the fighting has stopped, and the emigration, it’ll probably be in the lower part of that range. Nevertheless occupying and policing remnant Ukraine will be an unwelcome drain on Russian resources.
There is an additional factor that is seldom considered: the Brics countries, or the SCO countries, the developing bloc of non-Western countries. The strengthening of diplomatic and sometimes military links between these countries gathered pace during the various contacts between them at the end of the Afghan war and has continued since.
The more powerful members of this bloc are most reluctant to see alterations in existing boundaries. Setting a precedent for that in Ukraine would leave them themselves vulnerable. What of Kashmir, what of XinJian, if boundaries can be altered like that? And particularly in Africa, the sympathy for Russia in this war derives from the belief that Russia is defending itself from a predatory West. That sympathy would markedly reduce if it looked as if Russia was pursuing the war for territorial gain. From their point of view the taking of eastern Ukraine can be justified by the argument that in reality it was the only way of protecting the inhabitants of the region. The taking of western Ukraine, where the population mix is different and the majority of the inhabitants clearly do not wish to be under Russian rule, would be for many of the Brics countries not only a step too far. It would in their eyes turn the Russians from defenders against Western aggression to no more than land grabbers!
That is the Russian dilemma. Leave remnant Ukraine unoccupied and it becomes a country that will remain a running sore to them. Occupy it, and it becomes an expensive liability and one that will weaken their credibility within the new bloc they attach so much importance to. That last is important for reasons of trade too. The infrastructure required to accommodate the new patterns of trade is expensive and that demands long term commitment. Who will trust themselves to enter into such commitments, if they fear the Russians might depart from the principles of non-interference in the affairs of others on which the new bloc will be founded?
A long reply so I had better speed up. The Russians are aware, as we in the West are not, that the current government in Kiev is no normal government. It is dominated by the ultra -nationalists we put in power in 2014. Zelensky’s war policies are in direct opposition to the peace policy he was elected on by a large majority. Repression is the norm and corruption is if anything worse than it was before. It is a government only in place because it is locked in place by Western support and by the powerful internal security apparatus.
Increasingly, within the population and even within the Kiev government, the Ukrainians are aware that they are a proxy being used by the West as a means of attacking Russia, and a proxy that is being used for that purpose to its own grievous harm. Also, and this matters, a proxy aware that it was promised unlimited western support “as long as it takes” but is now finding that the West is reneging on that promise and in any case has no effective military support it can give in this theatre.
The Russians are hoping that the people will themselves be able to get clear of this government. They do not want the type of solution that failed for us in Iraq. They want the solution they looked for in Syria, where the reconciliation teams did more than the soldiers ever could to defeat the jihadis. In fact at the start they were sending analogous teams out into Ukraine in the hope of achieving the same result. Since February 2022 they have been searching for that solution from within Ukraine unceasingly. We may see the misrepresented Qatar talks as but merely one component of that search. There will be many other such components in the background.
Our response? We may see the recent Kursk offensive, and it has become clear now that that was a western inspired offensive, as a means of holding the Ukrainians to a war it is not in their interests to fight and that an increasing number of them do not wish to fight. When, therefore, we look at the future for remnant Ukraine as a bleak choice between occupation or continuing as a Western proxy we should be aware that there is a third possibility. One I believe the Russians are hoping for. That is, that the people of remnant Ukraine will free themselves from an unwanted and ineffectual government and themselves arrive at the solution to the problem of remnant Ukraine.
A remote possibility, as it seems at the moment, but a possibility that should not be ignored as we wonder how this war will end. When Putin said “Now it is clear why the Kiev regime refused our proposals to return to a peaceful settlement plan, as well as proposals from interested and neutral mediators”, he had been hoping for a resolution to the conflict coming from inside Ukraine. We’ve just blocked that possible resolution with that otherwise inexplicably foolish Kursk offensive. I hope we don’t keep on attempting to block it. Time, one might feel, for us to let the Ukrainians off the hook.
https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/ukraine-rolls-the-dice-on-kursk-incursion
Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 21 2024 17:44 utc | 66
so now he finds himself where he can't either win or maintain his nation's sovereignty without utterly crushing NATO as an institution.
Posted by: Tichy | Aug 21 2024 17:06 utc | 42
If you study Putin, he has been preparing since 2002 do just that if need be.
Its been a matter of preparing for war while constantly striving for peace. And preparing for war is not just the weapons. Its the people must be prepared for war, the economy must must be able to hold up under war ect ect.
And with this great power war in nuclear age much of it is hybrid war. US will not be getting into direct kinetic conflict with Russia. If the European fools do, they will be destroyed.
I saw something earlier that I should chase up a bit more, but something about the Biden Admin changing nuke doctrine so they have more nuclear 'deterrence' pointed at China. US will be going to war with China next year and that will change the picture again from what it is now.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 21 2024 17:44 utc | 67
can someone explain why this website is allowed to exist
Posted by: fart | Aug 21 2024 17:41 utc | 62
It's a honeypot.
Posted by: Passerby | Aug 21 2024 17:42 utc | 64
_____
I've sometimes wondered that myself. Doesn't stop me though :-D
Posted by: malenkov | Aug 21 2024 17:44 utc | 68
Roger@1709
Well presented, as usual. Riffing from your statements regarding the near terminus of that nearly numberless zone of cities, towns and villages, with hilly, water-coursed and industrially developed terrain which characterizes the Donbass; the Russians can soon pierce their way into open steppelands.
Likely, they will intend to escape the built-up network by early September. From then on, its a run to the races...clear on up to the Dnieper before those October rains make armored thrusts more problematical.
Posted by: aristodemos | Aug 21 2024 17:45 utc | 69
Russia has no need to, but it could use a very low yield tactical nuke on the invading force.[air burst]it would be on Russian soil and serve as a warning. wind in the right direction blowing across Europe. All major powers have set off nukes on their own land.
Posted by: slippery | Aug 21 2024 17:46 utc | 70
There is no reason for Russia to use nuclear weapons when Ukraine hits Moscow with drones or occupies Kursk; the same way that Israel does not use nuclear weapons whenever Hezbollah hits Tel Aviv with drones or occupies an Israeli border village.
Posted by: Passerby | Aug 21 2024 17:47 utc | 71
It's a honeypot.
Posted by: Passerby | Aug 21 2024 17:42 utc | 64
sorry but can you be more specific/ spell it out for me; im stupid. doesn’t honeypot usually refer to a place where a TLA would try to get a guy to do something illegal? And nobody here is doing anything, much less anything illegal. so i dont get it? like they just put you on a list if you read this and track you from then on?
Posted by: fart | Aug 21 2024 17:48 utc | 72
One hopes the Kursk offensive becomes a debacle like the French invasion of 1812.
Posted by: Keme | Aug 21 2024 17:50 utc | 73
"The Russians have slowed the move towards Pokrovsk, because they’ve opened a new front, does that suggest they are that concerned about Kursk?"
60. Milites
The value of the povrosk transportation hub is negated if Russia can cut the spokes coming out of they don't need to take the city itself to do so. Looks like Russia is trying to cut off the south east first before assaulting it, so its not slowing because of Kursk just following military logic.
Kursk is being fought by Russia with what syrsky called a mobile defense basically both sides can't make a front, all Russia needs to do is cut off infilitrators and watch for more movement. Except for korenvo, that's getting saturated with troops and corresponding losses when Ukraine has to move armor and artillery to there in the open.
It's a long process though. But russia wins in dobass and ukraine can't win in kursk is the bottom line. You can't die of embarrment and frankly fighting natos ukraine army is far from easy, so really there's not too much embarrament to be had unless you think Ukrainians are worthless fools.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 21 2024 17:50 utc | 74
Milites@1730
No need for apologies. Your overall comprehension regarding matters military possess both depth and breadth. General staffs inevitably include logistics experts...the only ones who can maintain an offensive. With air supremacy and numerous forms of missilry...to also mention artillery superiority; it is only logical to assume that Ukrainian logistics are rapidly transforming from a mere headache into a raging migraine.
Battles and wars themselves are usually won by logistical superiority...or vice versa. Thus, it is highly probable that the Ukie incursion into the Kursk Oblast will be of relatively short duration...even if the numbers of troops drawn into that Kesselschlacht are far more numerous than was originally postulated.
Logistics is the tail which wags the dog.
Posted by: aristodemos | Aug 21 2024 17:53 utc | 75
Roger 57
Who has miscalculated, the Atlantacists Fantacists who now have to share responsiblity for the Criminal Israeli genocide , or Putin who is slowly squeezing, devouring and crunching their military and financial bones?
Putin did not miscalculate. He allowed nato to believe its own myths about Russia, just as they are now believing their own stupid myths about Islam in Palestine.
Posted by: Giyane | Aug 21 2024 17:56 utc | 76
@Posted by: Newbie | Aug 21 2024 17:24 utc | 54
I use the site Mediazona as its numbers are backed by actual Russian funeral and death notice facts. These do not count LPR/DPR losses, which may be higher given that such troops are on the front lines in the toughest areas of fighting.
Mediazona, together with a team of volunteers, meticulously studies posts on social networks, reports in regional media, and publications on government websites. Our standard for confirmed deaths is stringent: it requires an official publication or social media post from a relative with corresponding details, accompanying photos or dates of burials from local messaging groups, or photos from cemeteries. We do not count military losses of the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR republics. However, if a Russian citizen voluntarily went to war and joined the armies of these republics (or was sent there after mobilisation), we will count them.
The reality that they are showing - a falling rate of Russian losses as Ukrainian losses escalate, from October last year to the present - was not helpful to Western propaganda (and the BBC which Mediazona works with on the loss figures). The BBC hardly ever mentions these figures! Mediazona has counted 61,830 Russian military deaths between the start of the war and the end of July 2024. I simply take those figures and double them to take into account any undercounting (I could be over-doing this, my doubling is certainly not scientific) - so just over 120,000 military deaths since the start of the war and let's remember a chunk of those are ex criminals. Of course on top of that there are the wounded, but a lot of those wounded will be fixed up and returned to the front - a bigger percentage than the Ukrainian wounded given the much greater Russian capabilities and much lower number of casualties, as well as basic medical supplies and attention available at the front line.
Putin is running the war in a way that has greatly limited the number of body bags travelling back to Russian homes, with the loss rate greatly diminishing since last October. The storming of Bakhmut can be said to be the last time that the Russians took major casualties, and of course many of them were ex-convicts.
We have to assume that the Western government officials, military leaders and media heads know these numbers and are therefore simply engaging in widespread lying to manufacture continued support for the war; support that is now rapidly waning. Such as this utter bullshit Russia Hunts Down Deserters to Backfill Its Massive War Losses from the Wall Street Journal only two days ago, if they changed "Russia" to "Ukraine" it would actually be accurate reporting
Anonposter @ 24,27,30 — Thanks for link and your additional insights. This ban seems to be an escalation. Laguerre — wonder why Rumble is banned in France. Any other bans; e.g., Bitchute, YouTube, etc.?
Posted by: Pundita | Aug 21 2024 17:58 utc | 78
English Outsider | Aug 21 2024 17:44 utc | 67
That is very close to my thoughts. However it is done though, I think remnant Ukraine, Minus Galicia, Volyn and some of the far western area, will be locked into Russia once this is over.
The main thing though is splitting Galcia off, encourage the Poles to take it or whatever but that cannot be part of any Rump Ukraine that is attached to Russia.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 21 2024 17:58 utc | 79
Medvedev and the Russian foreign ministry (as per Zakharova) have stated that a ceasefire is now impossible in the foreseeable future. So the NATO attack on Kursk is not only intended to discredit the current Russian leadership but also to prolong the conflict.
Words like "Either the SMO ends this year, or it escalates to WW3" by Russian/Chechen general Apti Alaudinov don't give any peace of mind when living in a potential glazing location but I guess he vents the gist among those who do the dying and the fighting.
Posted by: xor | Aug 21 2024 18:00 utc | 80
English Outsider @1744
"Remnant Ukraine" will be divided into more than the two parts which Caesar imposed upon conquered Gaul. Those Oblasts, or partials which are primarily Slovak, Hungarian or Romanian will be encouraged by Russia to rejoin their ethnic fatherlands. Central Ukraine, west of the Dnieper will be granted a referendum, should those who speak the Ukrainian dialect of Russian to choose to become part of Mama Bear's tribe...OR to become NovoUkrainia, an independent entity of Slavic brotherhood, similar to that of Belarus.
Remaining Remnant: Galicia and chunks of nearby oblasts which turned away from Russian Orthodoxy under centuries of occupation by first the Jagellonian Lithuanian/Polish aristocracies and latterly by the Austro-Hungarian empire. The local folks were more well treated if they accepted "Holy" Mother Church, as it was strongly "suggested" and transformed their system into becoming Rome-connective Uniats. There also, the acutely westernized populace gradually became fascistic under the Banderite regime and out-Nazied the 3rd Reich, mass murdering Jews, gays, gypsies and even Orthodox Ukrainians.
Thus that retrogressive remnant should be transformed into a quarantine zone, both for themselves and for those Khazarian refugees from liberated Palestine into becoming one feuding family along with the Banderites in the Continent's new "Pale of Settlement".
All parties should become happy with their new circumstances...including the Talmudists and the Banderites, who, deprived of any possible aggressive military forces, would hafta have their fun feuding with each other...maybe they will like that too.
Posted by: aristodemos | Aug 21 2024 18:06 utc | 81
This waas always a trap to begin with.
Posted by: AI | Aug 21 2024 17:12 utc | 47
"Russia didn't care if its citizens were raped and murdered."
Posted by: Tichy | Aug 21 2024 18:06 utc | 82
"War is war. Either go to war or surrender. The enemy has now been on our territory for 2 weeks." State TV: Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin is pushing for Russia to switch from Special Military Operation to full scale war in light of Ukraine's recent invasion of the Kursk region. Posted by: MiniMO | Aug 21 2024 17:14 utc | 49I fully concur.
As far as I understand things, Russia’s response in Kursk has been designated as a counter-terrorism operation. In your view, what has changed? Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 21 2024 17:20 utc | 51Why does it matter what its response is "designed as?" These are regular units of the Nazi Ukraine capturing Russian soil and murdering its people in a military campaign. Sounds like a war to them, to me, and to anyone else. I'll conclude with the statement that I suspect got me banned from this forum a year ago or so. I'd rather wish it won't happen again since I do feel that while you almost certainly aren't my political comrades, you can at least be my strategical friends. NO STONE UPON STONE LEFT OF LVIV!
Posted by: Tichy | Aug 21 2024 18:19 utc | 83
Mission Creep - it looks as though those at Nato HQ, will have to give the order to allow more Nato boots on the ground - if they are not already on the ground in larger numbers - and dressed up in Ukrainian military uniforms, for once Russian forces manage to overcome the Kursk invasion - and, it only a matter of time until they do - then Ukrainian forces - will have to be replenished, and I cannot see where the fresh troops will come from - other than Nato itself.
One does wonder how many (PMC's) Private Military Companies - are already fighting for the Ukrainians against the Russian forces.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Aug 21 2024 18:19 utc | 84
xor | Aug 21 2024 18:00 utc | 81 "Either the SMO ends this year, or it escalates to WW3" by Russian/Chechen general Apti Alaudinov
He has said a number of times that the war in Ukraine will be over in several months. We are already in WWIII.
As for going nuclear over Ukraine Europe, the Americans are out of it.
It could be a different story next year when the war moves to China and possibly Iran.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 21 2024 18:20 utc | 85
@ English Outsider | Aug 21 2024 17:44 utc | 67
thanks.. i think you did indeed answer your own question here near the end of your post.. how we get their is another matter.. - "the people of remnant Ukraine will free themselves from an unwanted and ineffectual government and themselves arrive at the solution to the problem of remnant Ukraine."
@ Peter AU1 | Aug 21 2024 18:10 utc | 84
maybe tichy or thomas is bipolar? he is a hard person to read based on his posts just on this thread..
Posted by: james | Aug 21 2024 18:22 utc | 86
@ English Outsider | Aug 21 2024 17:44 utc | 67
thanks.. i think you did indeed answer your own question here near the end of your post.. how we get their is another matter.. - "the people of remnant Ukraine will free themselves from an unwanted and ineffectual government and themselves arrive at the solution to the problem of remnant Ukraine."
@ Peter AU1 | Aug 21 2024 18:10 utc | 84
maybe tichy or thomas is bipolar? he is a hard person to read based on his posts just on this thread..
Posted by: james | Aug 21 2024 18:22 utc | 87
james | Aug 21 2024 18:22 utc | 88 "maybe tichy or thomas is bipolar? "
Just another trashbag that puts on some camouflage at times. He/it says it has been banned here before. No wonder. Just another bloody troll.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 21 2024 18:25 utc | 88
It's a honeypot.
Posted by: Passerby | Aug 21 2024 17:42 utc | 64
Why would somebody need that?
Posted by: vargas | Aug 21 2024 18:27 utc | 89
Reporting from Patrick Lancaster in the Kursk area Ukraine Soldiers Killed My Pregnant Wife
The Ukrainians are operating just like the Zionist regime, provocation after provocation to try to elicit a miscalculated response from the opponent. Just a bunch of Nazi murderers and looters wandering the towns and villages south of Kursk, including a lot of foreign mercenaries/sheep dipped NATO soldiers. The Russians will take their time sending all of these Ukrainians and foreigners to the afterlife.
The war crimes trials that Russia will most certainly hold after they have defeated the Ukrainians will most probably show much more horror than has currently been made visible, and of course the West will attempt to discredit and ignore any such trials. Just another "conflict" for them, like the 200,000+ dead and countless wounded and tortured in Gaza and Occupied Palestine in general. The Ukrainians and Zionist regime are working hard to equal the depravity of the Nazi German regime.
The Chinese Party-state is light years ahead of Putin's governing apparatus in understanding the geopolitical realities and driving development for the national interest and the benefit of the people. Xi is head and shoulders above Putin, and Russia needs to become much more like China if it is to flourish.
Posted by: Roger | Aug 21 2024 17:28 utc | 57
I agree with almost all what you said, apart from one small point; the bolded one. Putin fights, and Xi doesn't. The reality of Putin's present life can't help transforming him into a whole different beast than Xi. I'm tired of China's "final warnings" and I haven't forgotten all of Weibo mocking Xi's "prepare for war." Sink the fucking ship.
Posted by: Tichy | Aug 21 2024 18:29 utc | 91
Posted by: Tichy | Aug 21 2024 18:06 utc | 83
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
You have misunderstood the underline meaning of 'trap' here.
Posted by: AI | Aug 21 2024 18:31 utc | 92
Posted by: Tichy | Aug 21 2024 18:19 utc | 85
But you’re outlining an emotional response (one which I have sympathy with), but the Russians, for reasons we in the peanut gallery are never going to know, have adopted the coldly logical response of running a counter-terrorism operation.
Presumably there are legal and operational considerations taken into account and the situation is more nuanced, more fluid than we can see and a binary “all or nothing” approach is not the right approach.
Given my lack of access to the planners and strategists I don’t see any logical grounds for criticism; after that, the only thing left is criticism based on emotions (and having typed that, I find myself wondering if that approach is a fundamental failing of the Western mindset?).
Just my 2 kopeks...
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 21 2024 18:34 utc | 93
Interesting article disclosed by Big Serge:
https://nitter.poast.org/witte_sergei/status/1826311501516603670#m
Posted by: neutrino | Aug 21 2024 18:36 utc | 94
I think this will strenghten the russian determination to destroy the Ukraine as much as possible even more.
Posted by: WMG | Aug 21 2024 18:47 utc | 95
Peter AU1 | Aug 21 2024 18:10 utc | 84
"Russia didn't care if its citizens were raped and murdered."
Posted by: Tichy | Aug 21 2024 18:06 utc | 83
Do you really believe that?"
That would certainly follow if the LIHOP theory were true. Though I think simple incompetence and hubris on the part of the Kursk province leadership is a better explanation. Martynov even implied he thinks there could be treason there.
Posted by: flying dutchman | Aug 21 2024 18:49 utc | 96
Personally I’d like that Super-power believing in itself, going through a process of self-reflection (look how far MAGA have moved from RINO) than it being run by Peter-Principle clowns who are presided over by increasingly dysfunctional institutional clowns, who fear their power is slipping. Reflective guy with a hangover, or schizophrenic with a shotgun?
Posted by: Milites | Aug 21 2024 17:38 utc | 61
Well, actually, this is an interesting question. Here, people are always saying that "Putin has to be careful that he doesn't push the lunatics in charge of the West into starting a nuclear war."
Now, if you really believe that they will wipe out humanity if they lose, what does it matter how slow they lose? I'm sure they'll manage to see that they're losing. Moreover, if you think that the collective leadership of the West is simply unhinged and prone to do anything, then waging a three year war gives them 1095 days, and they only need one of these to decide "fuck it, let's nuke them." As Western analysts said at the start, and I actually believe them here, a full scale assault could've ended the war in a week. That's 156 times less days to come to a really idiotic decision.
If I am being generous, and this... really isn't a pleasant thought, but if I was to explain the rationale of the Russian HQ in a way that's understandable and justifiable, then that would be that they have already come to the conclusion that the West is utterly unhinged and will certainly destroy the whole fucking planet if they lose, so the best chance they have is to stall any settlement apart from "peace on mutually acceptable terms" and hope for a change in leadership. In that case, the overthrow of the government of the United States should be the highest priority, as a majority of Americans don't really have the stomach for going to WWIII over the Nazi Ukraine. The hot potato is Israel, though. A nation of genocidal fascists lead by genocidal fascists in full control of the American political and cultural discourse.
Posted by: Tichy | Aug 21 2024 18:51 utc | 97
"Piss off troll.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 21 2024 18:30 utc | 94"
What would life on MoA be without the eternally drunk Aussie with two conflicting brain cells? ;) (I'm not one to judge though, I regularly down a bottle of whisky a day.)
Posted by: Tichy | Aug 21 2024 18:53 utc | 98
"Russia didn't care if its citizens were raped and murdered."
Posted by: Tichy | Aug 21 2024 18:06 utc | 83
Do you really believe that?
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 21 2024 18:10 utc | 84
I was explaining AI's only possible rationale for the statement that "this was all a trap." Then again I guess it's like 3am where you live so I'll forgive you if you're too drunk to pick up on the nuances.
Posted by: Tichy | Aug 21 2024 18:55 utc | 99
* In the Kursk direction, the fighting continues as Ukraine begins artillery preparations for an offensive towards Glushkova. The Ukrainian forces are specifically targeting Russian engineering equipment, aiming to prevent the Russians from laying pontoon bridges.
https://x.com/GeromanAT/status/1826327650660487426
Going by the number casualties and lost equipment Nato has taken, yet they are still strongly on the offensive - I think a good 25 to 30,000 have been thrown into this offensive over the period it has been running.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 21 2024 18:56 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Decided that the first comment today shouldn’t be a troll!
Posted by: PalmaSailor | Aug 21 2024 15:03 utc | 1