The (former) President of Ukraine Vlodomir Zelenski recently made some ambivalent remarks about potential peace talks:
Volodymyr Zelensky told the newspaper "Le Monde" that he does not rule out holding a referendum on the future of Ukrainian territories to end the war, but "it requires the will of the Ukrainian people."
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According to the president of the country, Ukraine should not liberate all its territories by "force and weapons," because this option "costs us a lot of time and human lives." Zelensky added: – We can return our territories through diplomatic means.This is another groundbreaking statement from the Ukrainian leader. On July 22, he said in an interview with the BBC that Ukraine is ready to negotiate the end of the war with Russia, even if Vladimir Putin leads the latter. According to the president of Ukraine, the most essential thing in this matter is a genuine desire for peace on terms consistent with international law.
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He added that the "hot" stage of the war could end before the end of 2024, but the peace plan must be fully agreed with Ukraine's allies "so that no one plays with their own initiatives for ending the war."
It was and is doubtful that Zelenski really wants to make peace. In talks with the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban he had pointed to a theory of victory over Russia. As Orban explained (machine translation):
According to Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, in reality Zelensky assumes that Russia will have to resort to general mobilization in the middle of next year. And this can lead to internal destabilization in the Russian Federation.
Therefore, Zelensky is confident that time is playing on the side of Ukraine in the war – as Orban wrote in a letter to EU leaders after meeting with the Ukrainian president. A source in diplomatic circles informed Strana about the existence of such a letter.
"As for the outcome of the war, the President of Ukraine is confident that the Russian armed forces will be forced to resort to general mobilization in the middle of next year, which will lead to internal destabilization. He believes that the Ukrainian forces are stable, prepared and able to maintain combat effectiveness even in the long term, if Western arms supplies continue. He believes that time is on the side of Ukraine, not on the side of Russia," the letter says.
At the same time, Orban notes that Putin's assessment of the situation is diametrically opposed. The Russian President believes that time is on Russia's side.
I find the Zelenski's theory of victory rather fancy.
- Russia will need a general mobilization?
- The mobilization in Russia would lead to the destabilization of Russia?
- The government of President Putin would fall over it?
- The Ukrainian army is in good shape?
- It can stay in combat for much longer?
- Ukraine can wait out Russia?
I would answer each of those question with a loud "No".
However, Zelenski may well believe in at least some of those claims.
The issue came up again due to the recent Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region of Russia. There are multiple ideas what the Ukraine leaders wants to achieve with this:
Ukraine has said nothing about the mission or its goals. Theories abound, from an attempt to seize territory as a potential bargaining chip in future negotiations with Moscow, to a diversionary tactic to ease pressure on stretched defenses in Ukraine by drawing Russian forces away from the frontline.
But the Bloomberg writer comes up with a different theory – that the attack was made to unbalance Russia:
The episode exposed the fragility of Russian border defenses with growing numbers of its soldiers fighting in Ukraine. It has boosted Ukrainian morale.
And it has also punctured the Kremlin’s carefully constructed image of Putin as the protector of ordinary Russians.
Instead, the war he started in Ukraine now spills increasingly into Russia, where people in border regions live under constant risk of shelling and drones strike key industrial facilities.
For Ukraine, it’s likely to bolster Kyiv’s argument that US and European allies shouldn’t fear Kremlin threats of escalation and that it should be allowed to take the fight to Putin in any way it sees fit to hasten an end to the war.
The daily summary author at Strana suspects an only slightly different motive (machine translation):
Much indicates that Kiev's real strategy is quite different – to wage a long war in the hope of internal destabilization in the Russian Federation. And here the task is to convince Western partners (including such skeptical ones as Trump) that this is not a dream, but a real calculation. Therefore, Ukraine should not be pushed to negotiate, but give the Armed Forces of Ukraine more weapons and lift restrictions on missiles.
The offensive in the Kursk region, apparently, is designed to prove this to the West.
In an interview last night, the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine (and brain behind Zelenski), Andrey Yermak seemed to confirm that view (video).
Yermak currently sees no point in direct negotiations with Russia. He wants to convince Ukraine's supporters that Ukraine can win:
Ahead of the U.S. presidential election, Ukraine is working with the Democratic and Republican parties to keep them aware of the developments in Ukraine.
This was stated by the Head of the Ukrainian President's Office, Andriy Yermak, who spoke in an interview with European Pravda, Ukrinform reports.
"We are working today both with people from the team of candidate Donald Trump, and – even before the nomination – with Vice President Kamala Harris, who is already a candidate from the Democratic Party. It is very important for us that both headquarters, both candidates and those around them clearly understand what is happening in Ukraine, that they clearly understand the current stage of the war and our strategy. I believe it is very important that both candidates have a plan for Ukraine's victory," he said.
The plan in Kiev is not to negotiate but to prolong the war and to convince the west to further finance it. This would have the advantage of moving billions of additional dollar from western sources into the various pockets in Kiev with Zelenski and Yermak cashing in the largest share of it.