Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
August 17, 2024

Ukraine SitRep: Kursk Attack Derailed Partial Ceasefire Deal

The Ukrainian incursion into Russia's Kursk oblast has even worse consequences for Ukraine than had been known so far.

Over the last six months, in revenge for Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure, especially oil refineries, the Russian forces created serious damage on Ukraine's electricity network. Nearly every conventional power generation facility in Ukraine has been damaged. Half of Ukraine's 18 Gigawatts of electricity generation capacity has been taken offline. The damaged power stations were often also used to provide heating to large blocks of Soviet type apartments. Without power and heating it will be a very difficult winter for many people in Ukraine.

There was interest on both sides to stop the campaigns against the other sides infrastructure. An agreement about it was in the making and was possible. But, as Washington Post reports, the Ukrainian attack on Kursk blew it apart:

Ukraine and Russia were set to send delegations to Doha this month to negotiate a landmark agreement halting strikes on energy and power infrastructure on both sides, diplomats and officials familiar with the discussions said, in what would have amounted to a partial cease-fire and offered a reprieve for both countries.

But the indirect talks, with the Qataris serving as mediators and meeting separately with the Ukrainian and Russian delegations, were derailed by Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s western Kursk region last week, according to the officials.
...
The diplomat familiar with the talks said that Qatar has been discussing the arrangement for an energy strike moratorium with Kyiv and Moscow for the past two months. The official said the two sides agreed to a summit in Doha with just minor details left to be worked out.

“After Kursk, the Russians balked,” another person familiar with the talks said.

Instead of its senseless attack on Kursk Ukraine could have had an agreement that would make it possible to get through the winter without many blackouts and other interruptions. It blew that chance.

The moral uplift for Ukrainian forces created by the attack on Kursk is already waning. Russia has not pulled any of its troops involved in the attacks in the east to defend Kursk. It has instead pulled reserves from elsewhere. One of the hoped for effects of the Kursk incursion is thereby not happening.

Ukraine's attack was only made possible by pulling troops for the eastern frontline. Moreover artillery supplies, which were already problematic, have become even scarcer:

Soldiers fighting in the Donetsk region said they had been buoyed by the incursion into Russia. But they also said it would use up weapons and ammunition that they crucially need. One commander stationed at a hot spot on the eastern front said his brigade had fewer than four mortar guns to defend its position, and could fire only 10 shells a day per mortar.

Each day the Ukraine is losing more ground in the east. Meanwhile its Kursk incursion has already culminated and it will be a deadly struggle to hold onto the captured ground.

Ukraine has brought in high value assets to hinder Russian reserves from reaching the area. However, near to the frontline these assets have difficulties to survive.

Anomandris Purake @Malazan_enjoyer - 22:09 UTC · Aug 16, 2024

So the Russians put up a pontoon over the Seym River immediately after or even before the bridge was destroyed.

Ukraine meanwhile lost 3 HIMARS, 3 patriots and 1 IRIS-T making potholes on the bridge. I would say that's a very good exchange. I hope they try more of this.

Additionally reported were the destruction of a Polish made S-125 air defense system and a fourth HIMARS platform.

A New York Times analysis suggests, just as I did previously, that the main aim of the Kursk campaign was to convince the Ukraine's western supporters that it can still win the war and therefore deserves further support:

The real goals of the operation may not be on the Russia battlefield.

After the failure of Ukraine’s much-advertised counteroffensive last year and the ongoing losses in the east, it appears to be trying to change the war’s narrative.

The Ukrainians may be trying to convince the West that they will not give up, and that the United States in particular should allow them to use American long-range cruise missiles inside Russia.

The U.S. will hopefully not allow the Ukraine to extend its attacks deep into Russia. If it does allow these there will be a point where Russia will have to strike back, hard, against U.S. assets.

Ukraine is not the only country that has destructible power plants.

Posted by b on August 17, 2024 at 8:49 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Why is Russia even negotiating in the first place while none of their objectives have been met yet?

Posted by: Bob567777 | Aug 17 2024 9:00 utc | 1

Looks like Germany is cutting of funding the Ukraine project. No more money for military aid. Remains to be seen though if they will still donate military equipment without putting funding aside for it.
https://x.com/GeromanAT/status/1824721787390701913

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 9:20 utc | 2

https://t.me/llordofwar/367401

🇺🇦Scandalous blogger Spartak Saturday escaped from Ukraine

🔹 Ukrainian media report that he paid a bribe to border guards to cross the Ukrainian border.

The blogger called all those dissatisfied with their flight from the country “Ukrainian cattle” and slaves of the state.

🔹 Currently Saturday is with his wife in Barcelona, ​​where he was spotted at a Spanish government agency to process documents as a Ukrainian refugee.

https://t.me/CyberspecNews/60786

⚡️⚡️#Insider - Rezident

Our source in the General Staff said that the issue of the second stage of the counteroffensive will be decided next week at headquarters; no more than twenty days remain to begin the operation to seize the Zaporizhzhya NPP. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will not have enough reserves to conduct an operation in the Kursk region and an attack on the Zaporizhzhya NPP, which was initially the main target, but after entering deep into Russian territory, it faded into the background.

https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/12146

🇷🇺ISDM "Zemledeliye" remote mining system firing towards the Sumy region to disrupt AFU movements towards the Kursk region

Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 17 2024 9:21 utc | 3

@ Why is Russia even negotiating in the first place while none of their objectives have been met yet?

Posted by: Bob567777 | Aug 17 2024 9:00 utc | 1


Probably because they don't want to see more of their refineries, ships, bridges and airfields get blown up? Are you just listening to Martyanov and the rest of the pro Russia simps, or do you not understand this war is costing both sides?

Posted by: Rubiconned | Aug 17 2024 9:23 utc | 4

Team Shoigu, gawd bless ‘em.

https://t.me/rusengineer/4992

Forwarded from alcoholic historian

Wow!

Belousov finally got around to it.

For some reason, it seemed to me that the guy would fly out of the Ministry of Defense right after Shoigu.

Mr. Ilnitsky is one of the main answers to the question of why everything is so “wonderful” in our military propaganda. Here are the main milestones in the character’s biography:

— A native of the city of Lvov. It is clear that all Soviet people are internationalists. But Lvov, even as part of the USSR, managed to shock visitors with the brutal Russophobia of its citizens.

— A graduate of the “Moscow School of Civic Education”. One of the later articles about this institution is entitled “School of Foreign Agents” - an exhaustive description.

— An employee of the AST publishing house.
AST is such an interesting publishing house that from the very beginning specialized in future foreign agents. We don't know how they managed to bring together Ulitskaya, Glukhovsky, Akunin, Goralik, Bykov and others like them, but the business turned out to be ideologically very characteristically colored.

- One of the leaders of the Open Russia organization, a political project of Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

Then he moved to United Russia, then to Shoigu in the Moscow region and the Ministry of Defense. The

first four positions individually do not mean anything - you never know, there may be individual rough spots in a biography, but taken together - this is necessary and sufficient to keep a person out of government service within cannon shot.

And Ilnitsky spent 11 years doing ideological work in the military department, 2.5 of which were during the war.

Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 17 2024 9:23 utc | 5

Dima says that Ukraine is going to attack again these days.
Dima has his reliable sources but makes me confused.
He talks about the Russian success, then about spectacular things Ukraine plans to do and huge resources the west is again going to give to Ukraine.
IS the western supply really endless?

Posted by: vargas | Aug 17 2024 9:29 utc | 6

Posted by: Rubiconned | Aug 17 2024 9:23 utc | 5

Even though you're dumb and gay nafo cokcsucker, even you must realize that at this point, the occupied ukro-territory by the galizian nazi slaves and their demented anglo-saxon masters will be forced to surrender! Do you?

Posted by: Boo | Aug 17 2024 9:29 utc | 7

I am amazed how Dima improved his English from two years ago.
I have been listening to his posts in that period, almost every day.

Posted by: vargas | Aug 17 2024 9:31 utc | 8

Invading Russia is not a problem. The problem is living to tell the tale.

Posted by: Passerby | Aug 17 2024 9:43 utc | 9

RIA Novosti on threats to Russian nuclear facilities, citing a source in the security agencies:

▪️ The Armed Forces of Ukraine are planning to use charges with warheads with radioactive substances to attack the Kursk and Zaporizhia NPPs

The planned attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Kursk and Zaporizhia NPPs is being supervised by Western intelligence agencies, mainly Britain.

A large number of Western journalists have gathered in Sumy and Zaporizhia against the backdrop of Kiev preparing an attack on the Kursk and Zaporizhia NPPs.

✨It seems that there are more than enough reasons for decisive action. And this information in the official media should not be another toothless "signal about red lines". They have already been erased by the West.


And this quoted @4
⚡️⚡️#Insider - Rezident
Our source in the General Staff said that the issue of the second stage of the counteroffensive will be decided next week at headquarters; no more than twenty days remain to begin the operation to seize the Zaporizhzhya NPP. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will not have enough reserves to conduct an operation in the Kursk region and an attack on the Zaporizhzhya NPP, which was initially the main target, but after entering deep into Russian territory, it faded into the background.

I thik the second and main attack is what Russia has been waiting for. I assume Nato Ukraine is now just trying to stabilize defence lines in Kurk to keep Russian troops pinned there while the main attack, likely in the southern direction takes place.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 9:45 utc | 10

As Ukraine loses Himars, Patriot PAC-3 systems, and Nato self propelled artillery systems left and right which Nato can't replace in timely manner, their army and actions shifts into more small-unit tactics, and the SMO morphs more and more into a counter-terrorism operation (similar small-unit / spread out tactics to counter the AFU). Especially in Kursk region now, but eventually elsewhere.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 17 2024 9:47 utc | 11

The BBC, which hasn't covered itself in glory so far in this added more embarrassment. The title of the video gives some indication why it got so many hits, which side was Britain on during WW2? It's hard to tell from the combination of that title and the video contents. The correspondent does give some space for walking things back towards the end but Jesus. These people are supposed to be journalists and despite it being obvious Ukraine can't sustain this incursion and like all the others it won't be used as leverage in negotiations because there are never negotiations, eventually the Ukrainians are beaten back, take horrendous casualties and are in a worse place to negotiate a settlement. How many times does this have to happen before this journalist stops being a tool for this madness?

Ukraine 'seizes more Russian territory' in biggest incursion since WW2 | BBC News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHusgEBIYhs

Of course at least the BBC as the state broadcaster is a little bit circumspect. Going over to commercial news in the UK we have this guy, Michael Clarke who sounds more and more like Comical Ali in March 2003 every day.

Sky News' military analyst Michael Clarke on Ukraine War latest: 'They have a plan'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-zN8UFEj0k

Here he is in summer of 2022.

Ukraine War: One million person Ukrainian force is feasible
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bjb62ECSvUs

Interestingly no part of the UK media is more deranged about this war and acting like wartime propaganda than The Times radio channel and particularly what it has cultivated for it's YouTube channel.
https://www.youtube.com/@TimesRadio1/videos

Posted by: Altai | Aug 17 2024 9:54 utc | 12

I don't understand why Russia has let the situation get so far out of hand in two and a half years from what i have seen the front line has not really changed now we have a direct attack on Russia involving thousands of troops, we have NATO involved now it's reported the Ukrainians destroyed a vital bridge in Kursk, what is the point in talking to these people? the gloves should have come off a long time ago and NATO blood needs to be flowing otherwise it will continue, i have always supported Putin but he just is not being tough enough.

Posted by: Englishman | Aug 17 2024 9:56 utc | 13

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 9:45 utc | 11

There's also a possibility that AFU had another group waiting west of Rylsk to invade, but because the main effort near Sudzha faltered toward Martyanovka, Lgov and Koronevo, that has been put on halt.

It would be surprising to see another offensive occurring in the same area as 2023 counter-offensive around Orekhov and Rabotyne, but if it does happen, then the purpose is (yet again) to try and draw RUAF forces away from the Selydove-Pokrovsk axis and Ugledar-Konstaninovka axis. It's possible that is also plan B to try and again take the Energodar power plant and use it as blackmail.

It's easy to smell British influence all over these attacks, and British have a real fetish to try to practice nuclear terrorism on other countries soils. These offensives are more like end-game spasms, which Nato impulsively emits. Russia is methodically reducing the group around Sudzha, and another spasm must occur imminently before the muscles are too atrophied.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 17 2024 9:58 utc | 14

OMG Putin wanted to blink first in the energy war! Why am I so not surprised.
Elensky has proven a better chess player than Putin.

Next up is a daring lo level paratroop drop on Kremlin which captures Putin sitting on his toilet seat.
I believe Elensky has a chance to win this war on his terms.

"The U.S. will hopefully not allow the Ukraine to extend its attacks deep into Russia. If it does allow these there will be a point where Russia will have to strike back, hard, against U.S. assets."

This is a joke paragraph. It's Russia that draws imaginary lines in the sand that everyone laughs at. Hollywood has a new movie titled "Who is afraid of Putin Wolf?".

Posted by: Surferket | Aug 17 2024 10:01 utc | 15

"Ukraine is not the only country that has destructible power plants."
Funny, the US forgets that!

Posted by: ostro | Aug 17 2024 10:03 utc | 16

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 9:45 utc | 11

Sun Tzu: always let your enemy know when and where you will attack, beforehand.

Worked really well in ‘23, second time around it will be, no-doubt, FABulous.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 17 2024 10:08 utc | 17

The attack into Kursk is more likely to lead to further funding and armament cuts for Ukraine. Western countries tend to cite any excuse to do whatever they already wanted to do, and what they want is to reduce the support. They can cite Kursk, saying their weapons have been misused offensively, and Ukraine's defenses are collapsing because Ukraine misused the aid, meaning they should not send more.

Posted by: Clubofinfo | Aug 17 2024 10:09 utc | 18

Posted by: Englishman | Aug 17 2024 9:56 utc | 14

Only two reasons I can think of.

1. is fear of escalation. We don’t know what threats are being made by whom in the background.

2. Inability to conventionally escalate without mobilisation - so far another round of mobilisation appears to be something of a red line in a Russia.

The third option which is that Russia are purposefully playing it slow while the west bleeds itself - and which is a theory particularly popular on this forum - makes no sense to me. Ukraine are not near capitulation as we can see from this latest foray and the west can fund an attritional conflict like this indefinitely, while it is also completely unwilling to accept any kind of Russian victory.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 17 2024 10:09 utc | 19

unimperator | Aug 17 2024 9:58 utc | 15

Yes. The Ukraine channels beleive the attack will this time be around the ZNPP and Enerhodar. I this will be the offensive where the F-16s are used.

If they have another force put aside for a southern offensive, rather than stripping extra troops from it for Kursk, they are taking them from the eastern frontlines.

According the Ukraine channels, a big part of the Kursk operation was to draw in Russian troops and reserves from other frontlines, and I assume tie them up in Kursk while the offensive to the south takes place, but this has not occurred.

The Ukie channels did forecast both the northern offensive and a following southern offensive quite some time ago though they did think the north offensive would be against the Russian forces in Kharkov.

So because of that and the F16s, I think the southern offensive will take place shortly and only then will we know exactly where.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 10:17 utc | 20

Ukraine Weekly Update, 16th August 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-e15

Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Aug 17 2024 10:25 utc | 21

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 10:17 utc | 22

We could say the AFU stripped the Ugledar-Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk-Selydove and New York - Toretsk axis to launch the Kursk offensive. That led to Russia making more gains in these areas.

What are they going to use in Rabotyne-Orekhov attack? Are they going to strip more from these same areas? If one had to guess, RUAF has good intel on whatever is coming down from Zaporozhye or Dnipro. If they launch an equivalent attack (albeit this time much weaker attack) as 2023 counter-offensive, it certainly won't help AFU in prementioned axis'. RUAF still has the existing trench infrastructure from last year in that area and if they have a large grouping, they can certainly bog down that offensive as well.

The next few weeks will certainly be critical.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 17 2024 10:27 utc | 22

unimperator | Aug 17 2024 10:27 utc | 24

Nato could have been putting aside forces for a southern offensive over a period of time some of the Ukraine conscripts mobilizes being taken out for Nato training rather than being sent directly to the frontlines as cannon fodder. That seems to be what occurred the last two time. When Ukraine/nato forces appeared to be at their weakest on the frontlines, large new forces where brought in for the offensives.

I assume it will be similar to the other forces for offensive - a combination of nato trained conscripts, mercs and sheep dipped nato troops, followed up by whatever cannon fodder can be scraped up.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 10:36 utc | 23

negotiate with the followers of Jacob frank and sabbattai zvi the khazharian ashkanazim need the slaughter to continue

russia is doing the heavy lifting cleaning for the chabad new khazharia is being made forged in the underbelly of mother Russia

if this is anything like syria all special forces all use nato will be quietly shipped out traded while the Uki goyim get turned into soil.

Posted by: ali | Aug 17 2024 10:40 utc | 24

If these Kursk interlopers are still hanging around in a couple of months (my guess is they will be) then I think that is proof positive of NATO demands/threats being made on Russia, as I cant see any other excuse for it.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 17 2024 10:42 utc | 25

GEROMAN -- time will tell - 👀 --
@GeromanAT
The Russian army retreated in an organized manner to the eastern bank of the Seim River near Tyotkino. Populated areas were evacuated, two bridges, in Tyotkino and Popovo-Lezhachi, were blown up as the enemy approached. New prepared defense lines were occupied.

🇷🇺 Sofa General Staff


That Russia has not reacted to the Kursk offensive by throwning in all the troops it could spare from other fronts - instead allowing nato to take some ground there, is a good indicator the Russian MoD is holding back and waiting for the main Nato force that will attack in a different direction.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 10:45 utc | 26

To those asking why "Putin" does not go all in militarily, again: The Russians already made great gains in this conflict and continue to do so. Why would they upset the gamestate? Especially when World War 3 is a possible outcome of an escalation.

Western shmucks always talk about the territory, but Russia gained something far more valuable: 10-15 million new loyal citizens, relatively well educated, sitting on their (!) valuable land. The government was now able - with the help of the West - to subjugate the country's oligarchic elements further because rich Russians were shunned in the West and had to carry their capital back to the motherland. Domestic production is soaring. And the permanent threat of the Angloamerican lunatics has drastically diminished, the empire maybe even mortally wounded.

Things are going well. Why be upset?
And sure, 100k dead Russians is a sad element of this equation, but how could anybody claim do better than that?

Posted by: Roland | Aug 17 2024 10:46 utc | 27

No, Putin is not going to openly attack US homeland assets. What a ridiculous notion after 30 months of conflict. Actually, the notion that he would is a sign than the hasbara is getting to the "pro-Russia" experts.

I can see him nuking Zelensky's parents, or maybe all of Germany, but Russia is not starting a vast nuclear war if that can be avoided.

Posted by: They Call Me Mister | Aug 17 2024 10:59 utc | 28

While many are arguing that the Russians should escalate their incursions into Ukraine you must remember the original plan of the neocons with this war was exactly that, that Russia would take significantly more territory that it now intends to and in the process "Eat the porcupine" as John Mearsheimer famously put it. With the Russians being stuck engaged in military occupation of potentially tens of millions of ethnic Ukrainians who would be expected to form armed resistance and terrorist groups and be supported forever by the West. The Russians also want to retain the moral high ground and some form of legal justification. Thus why they have continued to use the term "Special Military Operation" rather than "war" or "invasion" and the Western media has been obsessed with the clunky language "Russia's full scale invasion" rather than "invasion" or "war" and why they are focused on the breakaway territories that have conducted referendums. They also don't want to destroy a city like Kiev I suspect deep in his heart Putin wouldn't be able to do it.

And this has been working for Russia, they're holding their lines (They don't fully control all the territory of the Donbass but the parts they don't control have no barely any ethnic Russians living in them anyway, what skin off their nose would be it to partition the territory?) and the Ukrainians and NATO are running out of men and materiel to throw at them. At least this way you don't have to try and militarily occupy huge amounts of territory with hostile civilians in a conflict that would drag on even longer than this one. The plan has never been to conquer Ukraine so why conquer Ukraine? Do the Russians even have the manpower to do a military occupation even for a short time?

Posted by: Altai | Aug 17 2024 11:00 utc | 29

Posted by: Roland | Aug 17 2024 10:46 utc | 29

Err they have just had to evacuate 100k plus from within Russia

The next escalation is a strike elsewhere or at a minimum an indefinite occupation of Russian territory by Ukrainian forces.

At what point do you expect this all to end? You can’t surely say ‘never’

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 17 2024 11:01 utc | 30

Legitimate
#rumors
Our source reports that Zelensky can not "get" a phone call from the US presidential candidate from the Democrats Kamala Harris.
Lobbyists say there is no reason for the call, but on the sidelines, many say that Harris has already refused to hold a personal phone conversation with Zelensky twice.
Soon it will be a month as lobbyists of the president's office are trying to organize a telephone conversation.

With the hit opffloading Nord Stream directly onto the comedian the other day, Germany now pulling the pin of funding, plus the comedian not being able to talk to the dem candidate, it does appear he has been thrown under the bus by the Americans at least.

Brits still seem to back him, but much will depend on these two offensives. Once they have been destroyed by Russian forces - perhaps several months - it will be interesting to see what the Brits do and how many Nato countries will pull out of the Ukraine project.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 11:03 utc | 31

After taking so many casualties and expending so much into this conflict, taking just the 4 oblasts is a complete failure (remember that even these 4 oblasts haven't been fully captured 2.5 years in). Nato will continue to use Ukraine as a battering ram in the future and Ukraine will rebuild its military with western support.

Russia needs to take everything east of the Dnipr, and the entire black sea coast to fully squash the Ukrainian threat in the long-term.

It's so embarrassing to be continually conned by the West. First the Minsk agreements, then Istanbul, now this? When will Putin learn that the neocons just aren't negotiating in good faith?

Posted by: Bob567777 | Aug 17 2024 11:05 utc | 32

If Russia does strike back hard against U.S. assets, as you think might happen, it will most likely be in Germany because that would could kill two birds with one stone. Not only has the biggest selling newspaper 'Bild' boasted about German tanks rolling back into Kursk, the German government doesn't see any problem with it either, as seen in the comments by its defence ministry spokesman last week. (machine translation):Government press conference on August 12, 2024
(...)
Question: Mr. Collatz, does that mean that German weapons can also be used when it is not a staging area on the border with Ukraine on Russian territory, but an advance - I'm imagining - towards Moscow?

Collatz (Federal Ministry of Defence): These are Ukrainian weapons.

Question: Just a quick question, Mr. Collatz: Germany has, among other things, delivered 58 Leopard tanks to Ukraine, I believe. Could these tanks be used by Ukraine to advance into Russian territory?

Collatz (Federal Ministry of Defence):
(...)
what I just said applies: If weapons from Germany are made available to Ukraine, then Ukraine assures us that they will use them within the framework of international law, and there are no further conditions.
There has also been some sabre-rattling in the past week from the Chair of the Defence Committee, Marcus Faber when he gloated about the "success" of the Kursk invasion:
Ukraine's success must be an opportunity for us to discuss the delivery of more Leopard2 and Fuchs aircraft.

The CDU opposition party is just as bad. Its Bundestag and foreign policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter said earlier this year:The war must be taken to Russia. Russian military facilities and headquarters must be destroyed. We must do everything to enable Ukraine to destroy not only oil refineries in Russia, but also ministries, command posts, and command centers. It is time for the Russian people to understand that they have a dictator who is sacrificing Russia's future

Russia will certainly be tempted to wake Germany up to the fact that it is making the same mistake it made eighty years ago by waging war against Russia.

Posted by: Brendan | Aug 17 2024 11:07 utc | 33

"Indefinite occupation", hah, good joke.
The evacuations are sad as well, true. But again, the escalation might be the bigger gamble, especially when the Ukrainians are loosing a good chunk of their last valuable reserves as an argument to keep this going for a while.

And it will end when the Ukrainian state collapses. If we're lucky this might be sooner with something like a military coup. If we're unlucky it might take another year or two, until the overall situation becomes completely unbearable for Ukrostan. Frankly, I'm amazed at how far the Ukrainians are taking this. The benefits of a fascist state I guess. But not just militarily, demographically the country is mostly done.

Posted by: Roland | Aug 17 2024 11:08 utc | 34

Sorry for messing up the formatting of the last post.

Posted by: Brendan | Aug 17 2024 11:08 utc | 35

“Oh we are so weeaaakk now on the Eastern Front - with us invading Kursk instead to van some bargaining chips , please please don’t take advantage of our weakness there and launch any Big Arrows towards the Dniper - we would collapse like a sand castle..”

The SMO rope-a-dope has worked exactly as it was planned by the RF maskarovia masters.

RF was supposed to hurtle way beyond their lines upto the big river - natzos had planned and equipped massive defensive lines and troops to chew them up! In the first year or so most of the front line Ukrops were old. The young bucks trained for years were missing!

They even had the traitors in their midst - yay all the way to the near top - the Cook went piling in with his dirty dozens to ‘lead the way’ and cried when the Leadership didn’t send in the main attacks. He even went so far as to try and head to Moscow to make a PR revolution! The Old Red Army types knew what was what - he got a trial and punishment ad would any traitor soldier have n the battlefield.

Well this is the last throw to encourage that Big Move! That grand folly , by provoking ever more panicky direct escalations.

Regarding Doha - there is that very interesting announcement of a CIA award to their foreign minister!
Yup it’s standard CIA practice to announce their awards to their great agents! That’s called throwing the guy under the bus. It is a desperate move. Just like ‘oh my flank is so weak’ !


Posted by: DunGroanin | Aug 17 2024 11:11 utc | 36

Posted by: Brendan | Aug 17 2024 11:07 utc | 35

Martyanov says the AFU is run from the US base in Ramstein, Germany, by US generals, and from the Pentagon by US generals.

Any Ukrainian general staff is there to just take orders and somehow implement them. Even AFU general staff has 'advisors' integrated from the Pentagon, probably to make sure they do what is told.

Nevertheless, there is a certain inertia how the AFU rolls. What we see is things crumbling as the inertia is expended and there is no more force or weight to create inertia as mobilization falters. Well, at least it seems to be faltering, they get continuously less cannon fodder. When there is no cannon fodder, there is nothing, and things just crumble.

So, essentially, Russia is winning the war.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 17 2024 11:13 utc | 37

Nato could have been putting aside forces for a southern offensive over a period of time some of the Ukraine conscripts mobilizes being taken out for Nato training rather than being sent directly to the frontlines as cannon fodder. That seems to be what occurred the last two time. When Ukraine/nato forces appeared to be at their weakest on the frontlines, large new forces where brought in for the offensives.

I assume it will be similar to the other forces for offensive - a combination of nato trained conscripts, mercs and sheep dipped nato troops, followed up by whatever cannon fodder can be scraped up.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 10:36 utc | 25


I mentioned in an earlier thread that once they reach a theoretical 1 million they go full lemming.


Also answering an earlier point by you, I mentioned very early two other roads where RF should preempt an attack to Rylsk from the west.


As for the negotiations, I would go for a simple reason (and let the critics use it if they so chose), Putin doesn’t want to freeze millions of, more or less innocent , mainly elderly , Ukrainian civilians. Get some wins and avoid it, there are people who are not psychopaths and have a problem with senseless murder of people. Is that the objective of this whole war? To break him into unleashing a version of the RF and its leadership that matches the monstrous version that they’re selling?

Posted by: Newbie | Aug 17 2024 11:17 utc | 38

Here's my earlier post with correct formatting (hopefully):

If Russia does strike back hard against U.S. assets, as you think might happen, it will most likely be in Germany because that would could kill two birds with one stone. Not only has the biggest selling newspaper 'Bild' boasted about German tanks rolling back into Kursk, the German government doesn't see any problem with it either, as seen in the comments by its defence ministry spokesman last week. (machine translation):

Government press conference on August 12, 2024
(...)
Question: Mr. Collatz, does that mean that German weapons can also be used when it is not a staging area on the border with Ukraine on Russian territory, but an advance - I'm imagining - towards Moscow?

Collatz (Federal Ministry of Defence): These are Ukrainian weapons.

Question: Just a quick question, Mr. Collatz: Germany has, among other things, delivered 58 Leopard tanks to Ukraine, I believe. Could these tanks be used by Ukraine to advance into Russian territory?

Collatz (Federal Ministry of Defence):
(...)
what I just said applies: If weapons from Germany are made available to Ukraine, then Ukraine assures us that they will use them within the framework of international law, and there are no further conditions.

There has also been some sabre-rattling in the past week from the Chair of the Defence Committee, Marcus Faber where he gloated about the "success" of the Kursk invasion:
Ukraine's success must be an opportunity for us to discuss the delivery of more Leopard2 and Fuchs aircraft.
The CDU opposition party is just as bad. Its Bundestag and foreign policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter said earlier this year:
The war must be taken to Russia. Russian military facilities and headquarters must be destroyed. We must do everything to enable Ukraine to destroy not only oil refineries in Russia, but also ministries, command posts, and command centers. It is time for the Russian people to understand that they have a dictator who is sacrificing Russia's future
Russia will certainly be tempted to wake Germany up to the fact that it is making the same mistake it made eighty years ago by waging war agaiinst Russia.

Posted by: Brendan | Aug 17 2024 11:18 utc | 39

Why is Russia even negotiating in the first place while none of their objectives have been met yet?

Posted by: Bob567777 | Aug 17 2024 9:00 utc | 1

When you punch someone in the head it hurts your hand just as much as it hurts his head.

When you settle your differences through talking your hands don't hurt at all.

Some people watching this conflict have invested too much of their egos in hoping to see Russia stomp Ukraine and the west ... I'd much rather see Russians on both sides of this conflict end their differences without violence.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Aug 17 2024 11:23 utc | 40

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 17 2024 9:47 utc | 12

Like I said, the Kursk incursion looks more like a large terrorist op than a tiny military offensive.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Aug 17 2024 11:25 utc | 41

Posted by: Roland | Aug 17 2024 10:46 utc | 29

To those asking why "Putin" does not go all in militarily, again: The Russians already made great gains in this conflict and continue to do so. Why would they upset the gamestate? Especially when World War 3 is a possible outcome of an escalation.

Western shmucks always talk about the territory, but Russia gained something far more valuable: 10-15 million new loyal citizens, relatively well educated, sitting on their (!) valuable land. The government was now able - with the help of the West - to subjugate the country's oligarchic elements further because rich Russians were shunned in the West and had to carry their capital back to the motherland. Domestic production is soaring. And the permanent threat of the Angloamerican lunatics has drastically diminished, the empire maybe even mortally wounded.

Things are going well. Why be upset?
And sure, 100k dead Russians is a sad element of this equation, but how could anybody claim do better than that?


I want to be a doomsayer!

I think we are all making mistakes. We are making sectoral considerations without taking into account the overall strategic situation. Means and armaments, supplies, fortifications, distances, troop concentrations, supply storage, access routes to possible primary objectives, study of possible secondary objectives, possibility of retreat on defensible lines and everything that is needed and that I have not listed, in a very complicated war. My idea is that this "special operation" is very similar to a spring that has almost reached maximum compression and that only needs a little tug for it to turn into an Armageddon. Don't ask me where and how it will be triggered but it will surely be triggered, Russian patience is running out BUT the Bluffers have reached the last relaunch, AFTERWARDS WE ARE IN UNKNOWN TERRAIN OR TOO KNOWN OR RATHER and it is not pleasant.

automatic translation

Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Aug 17 2024 11:25 utc | 42

Ukraine activated 200,000 Russian conscripts which with some support from a few battalions of experienced troops and drone units will grind down the Ukrainians. It's just an extra front draining ammo, manpower and equipment. There is a lot of rotation of units available with 200,000 men once the Russians get organized.

Posted by: Poul | Aug 17 2024 11:27 utc | 43

Something for the small minds.

The Telegraph: "Putin has been humiliated – he just doesn’t know it yet."

The Independent: "Ukraine’s surprise attack on Russian soil leaves Putin humiliated."

The Atlantic: "Russia’s Tragedy, Putin’s Humiliation."

Sky News: "Humiliating blow for Putin as Russia's bloody war against Ukraine is brought far closer to home."

It seems as though they all received the same memo, doesn’t it?

Now, consider this:

President Putin inherited a Russia struggling with economic challenges, crime, and unemployment. Under his leadership, the nation experienced remarkable economic growth, emerging as a leading global power. Putin’s administration focused on national projects that advanced technology, infrastructure, and social welfare, nearly eradicating poverty and significantly improving living standards. He remains dedicated to strengthening Russia and envisions a prosperous, secure, and sovereign future.

Joe Biden's presidency has been disastrous for America. Politically, his leadership is weak, and his foreign policy is incoherent. Economically, Biden's reckless spending and inflationary policies have crushed the middle class, leading to a cost-of-living crisis for ordinary Americans. Socially, his divisive rhetoric has deepened national polarization, fostering distrust and unrest. Biden's presidency is a catastrophic failure, leaving the United States more divided, weakened, and economically unstable than ever before.

Expired President Zelensky is driving Ukraine steadily toward total disaster, indifferent to the lives of his citizens. His notable claim to fame is a bizarre piano performance using his genitalia.

So, here’s the question:

Which of these three presidents is the word “humiliation” LEAST applicable to?

You know the answer, and so does the mainstream media. And yes, they all did get the same memo from the same powers they dare not defy.

To avoid adding insult to injury, we haven’t even mentioned Scholz, Macron, or the revolving door of British PMs. https://x.com/ivan_8848/status/1824378788102160703

Every time the Empire of lies pulls some stunt, the small minds expect Russia to react in a mindless knee jerk manner to "save face".

Russia is in it to win it and if Russia starts reacting to Empire provocations in a predictable manner, then the Empire is inside Russia's oodna loop and can play with Russia like a cat playing with a mouse.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 11:27 utc | 44

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 10:45 utc | 28

How long are they going to wait for this so called attack before actually addressing Kursk? Which, if this attack actually occurs indicates an unexpected strength of ukro forces.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 17 2024 11:28 utc | 45

Night Tripper | Aug 17 2024 11:28 utc | 47

Get lost troll.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 11:32 utc | 46

🇷🇺ISDM "Zemledeliye" remote mining system firing towards the Sumy region to disrupt AFU movements towards the Kursk region

Other than the obvious advances in drone warfare, another progressing nexus of war-fighting from the conflict that would be well scrutinized is the heightened capabilities in mining and de-mining.

Posted by: Call it what u will | Aug 17 2024 11:32 utc | 47

From Ukro perspective an attack on Zaporozhye NPP in Energodar or Kursk NPP and radioactive contamination would be a huge success.
It must be taken not account that air name is not victory, but killing as many Russians as possible.
I have no doubts they would do that as soon as possible.

Posted by: vargas | Aug 17 2024 11:34 utc | 48

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 11:27 utc | 46

JournoList has just retreated into the shadows, when it was first exposed. The good thing is they all get to be wrong, further damaging their already shredded reputation.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 17 2024 11:38 utc | 49

Putin better surrender before US get really serious.

https://sputnikglobe.com/20240817/biden-escalates-again-threatening-russia-with-long-range-cruise-missiles-1119800144.html

Posted by: Surferket | Aug 17 2024 11:39 utc | 50

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 11:32 utc | 48

No answers then, thought not - coming from a drunk Sheila sitting in the outback

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 17 2024 11:39 utc | 51

Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Aug 17 2024 11:25 utc | 44

Or a spring, so stretched that it looses its elasticity.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 17 2024 11:41 utc | 52

@Peter AU1

Somebody made this, all of these are from Feb to May 2022.

https://i.postimg.cc/KYWxqJ61/Narrative-Collapse.png

Posted by: Altai | Aug 17 2024 11:44 utc | 54

Minaa | Aug 17 2024 11:42 utc | 55

Yeah. Quite telling. Both that and the comedian talking about peace negotiations go hand in hand.
Designed to try and draw Russia into complacency before these two last ditch offensives.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 11:45 utc | 55

Could the agreement not to attack civilian infrastructure be really called "Partial Ceasefire Deal"?

Certainly, it's not up to anyone else beside the warring parties to define their interests, but at this stage of the conflict it seems as there's something rotten in the Kingdom of Denmark - Federation of Russia -, or perhaps somebody wants to leave us with that impression.

Uncanny, the amount of unknown unknowns.

Posted by: js | Aug 17 2024 11:48 utc | 56

Posted by: Milites | Aug 17 2024 11:41 utc | 54


Artillery springs all work by compression. Only the Italians have introduced a torsion one.

Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Aug 17 2024 11:48 utc | 57

People wondering why over the last 2 1/2 ys Putin didn't strike with more fear inducing resolve, now you know - Kursk and whatever part 2 coming up is, Zap, Belgorod, and/or Belarus. Holding back, allowing red lines to be crossed, didn't invite Kursk, it was to make sure Russia could blunt such and attack and all others, building its defense took priority over building its offense, which is intelligent and traditional for Russia. And, it seems they did it just in time if not right on schedule.

Why didn't Russia take out UKR's entire energy grid? My guess is they didn't have the missiles, they hit as they built them but the focus was on stockpiling. The priority was to build a huge reserve of powerful weapons and manpower not to advance - yet. What so many people don't seem to get is that the west wants war, but they want Russia to to fuck up and declare it on them so they can mobilize their disinterested wussy woke service sector labor force into the military, but there's nothing stopping USA/NATO from declaring war and outright launching an attack on Russia using it's full naval and air power, and NATO may not have the infantry to march on Moscow but it has enough to march into Ukraine.

Everything we've seen in August justifies Russia's reticent go slow military policy, if they'd have been even a little bit over extended in the Donbas they would have been fucked now, they would have had to move troops risking all their very hard won gains in east Ukraine rather than reversing the situation on Kiev who is now falling back faster in the Donbas.

Russia saw all this at the time of the Kherson and Kharkov pullback, Kiev, London, Washington clearly didn't, they just arrogantly saw and still see Russia on the run.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 17 2024 11:49 utc | 58

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 17 2024 11:28 utc | 47

What’s to ‘address in Kursk’, apart from the fact that it’s allowed the Russians to come within striking range of a major logistics hub, whose capture would force a relocation of the frontlines that would dwarf any Ukrainian gains in Kursk. It would also shorten those lines, allowing the Russians to free up units to exploit that relocation.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 17 2024 11:49 utc | 59

Altai | Aug 17 2024 11:44 utc | 56

I just tried the top headline to see what dates came up and its August 2 2024. I assume the others in that list will have similar dates.

Just dusting of some old headlines or similar to them for reuse I guess.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 11:50 utc | 60

https://t.me/rusengineer/4998

New from the Chinese, fiber optics for control. In this case, they are inferior in priority, our teams were the first to bring this idea to mind and implement it in series production. And now they are working great in the Kursk region, burning the equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in conditions of the strongest concentration of electronic warfare.

On the other hand, the appearance of such an offer from a world factory means that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have them in the near future. After all, our ally, or rather temporary fellow traveler, is quite bargaining with our enemy, providing the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the ability to hold the front at the expense of drones from Chinese components.

But this is lyricism, the important question is that we must be prepared to meet drones, against which electronic warfare is powerless and the requirements for camouflage are growing sharply, because the quality of its video will be excellent.

Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 17 2024 11:50 utc | 61

FYI

So What Really Happened in Kursk?

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/08/16/so-what-really-happened-in-kursk/

Pepe Escobar's take.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Aug 17 2024 11:52 utc | 62

^
And now we know why Russia has stayed firmly on active defense in the Donbas till now, no Kharkov or Sumy attacks ever happened, they saw all this coming.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 17 2024 11:55 utc | 63

Posted by: Milites | Aug 17 2024 11:49 utc | 61

What’s to ‘address in Kursk

Maybe the 10k homeless people who want to go back there ?

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 17 2024 11:56 utc | 64

My guess is they didn't have the missiles, they hit as they built them but the focus was on stockpiling.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 17 2024 11:49 utc | 60

It could be the case, but also quite telling what Putin said about Palestine. "Let the men fight but keep the women and children out of it"
And as wee can see with the fixed battle line, most requirements for civilian life - brides, a small amount of electricity ect, Russia is doing exactly that with the SMO.

he war is exceptional when civilian to military casualties are looked at. One idiot western media even went so far as to say "Russia missiles are very inaccurate, because although they are targeting, civilians they cannot hit any"

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 11:58 utc | 65

That should say 100k obviously not 10k

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 17 2024 11:59 utc | 66

It is amusing to watch some propagandists belatedly remember that there are, in fact, civilians in the occupied Kursk region, and that they probably should feign concern about them. Still, most "concerned pro-Russians" can't even figure out that basic human empathy.

Energy infrastructure cease fire negotiation could make sense. Russia was never the one to start hitting neither energy transmission not energy generation. Both times it was NATO provocations ignoring direct warnings that forced RF to respond (yet Russia never retaliates to "red lines", right?)

RF does not operate as a terrorist state and gets out of its way, to its military detriment, to minimize civilian suffering. RF does not want to waste missiles on so-called-ukraine's energy generation. With that in mind, the negotiations could make sense. It would also makes perfect sense why banderites and the globalist faction would want to spoil it. Still, it is Western MSM source, gotta be careful taking them at their lying word.

Posted by: boneless | Aug 17 2024 12:09 utc | 67

Posted by: John Gilberts | Aug 17 2024 11:52 utc | 64

Typical SM ‘commentary’. 1/3rd trueish, 1/3rd supposition, 1/3rd not-so-true. Trouble is you struggle to work out which is which.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 17 2024 11:56 utc | 66

It’s a war, or hadn’t you realised? I’d have 10k civilians sitting in shelters for a fortnight than burying 10k soldiers, but that’s just my silly desire to try to preserve the force that will help end the war.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 17 2024 12:10 utc | 68

Russian Ministry of Defense
The of the Russian Federation takes the information received through independent channels about preparations by the Kiev regime for an attack on the Kursk nuclear power plant with due seriousness.

The purpose of this provocation is to accuse the Russian Federation of "self-shooting" the plant in order to create grounds for attacking Ukrainian nuclear power facilities.

We regard such actions of the Kiev regime with the support of Western patrons as a direct and clear violation of the international convention adopted by the UN General Assembly resolution on Combating Acts of Nuclear Terrorism of April 13, 2005.

If the Kiev regime starts implementing criminal plans aimed at creating a man-made catastrophe in the European part of the continent with radioactive contamination of vast territories, tough military and military-technical measures will be immediately taken.


https://t.me/s/mod_russia

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 12:13 utc | 69

Desiderata said: "I never imagine things would be this bad for so long and that Ukraine survives under that idiot Zelensky the TV comedian with his Nato backers versus Russia. A mind boggling reality. But it is what it is with no end in sight either. None."

----------------

I think the answer might be staring us in the face, in the form of the professional comedian himself: The longer this war (show for him) goes, the more billions have been guaranteed to enter his pockets. The BBC might be allowed to do a "groundbreaking" expose on this in ten years time, assuming humanity is still around.

Posted by: Ludovic | Aug 17 2024 12:13 utc | 70

Re: War Aims

Moscow’s War Aims were clearly stated in their Peace Offering proposal of Dec 2021. Worth revisiting. One core aim is the roll back of NATO to pre-1997 members.

The Ukrainian Civil War is but a sideshow to the big picture. The Big Picture is global peace.

De-dollarization brings global peace. First real effects of de-dollarization should be felt in 2025 with full negative effects, namely Federal Gov’t informal debt default , in 2027. TBD

Posted by: Exile | Aug 17 2024 12:21 utc | 71

"Ukraine is not the only country that has destructible power plants."
Funny, Russia forgets that!

Posted by: ramrod | Aug 17 2024 12:21 utc | 72

Very early on, After Boio told the comedian not to negotiate and Russia settled in to its new strategy, I though part of what we were seeing was Russia drawing Nato in ever deeper.

Russia's proposed mutual security agreement wich meant Nato withdrawing its troops and equipment back to 1997 borders.
And the warning that if there was no security agreement, Russia would use military technical means.
Take a look at Europe now, sanctioning its own gas, sanctioning its own economies placing it it not much less than an economic doom spiral. Add to that however many billions thrown into the conflict plus the huge amount of European military equipment the Russian war machine has chewed through that all has to be replaced.
Russia is now in a far stronger position and EU/NATO in a far weaker position. As Stoltenberg was fond of saying "If Nato loses the war in Ukraine, then Nato is finished".

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 12:25 utc | 73

Mercouris claims he got a private message about two months ago about Kursk or something like it. The big goal was to drain Ukraine armor. Regardless of what might be thought about that, this is how it's working out for Ukraine - and they can't back out.

Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 17 2024 12:25 utc | 74

It’s a war, or hadn’t you realised? I’d have 10k civilians sitting in shelters for a fortnight than burying 10k soldiers, but that’s just my silly desire to try to preserve the force that will help end the war.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 17 2024 12:10 utc | 70


A fortnight eh? Good luck with that prognostication....

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 17 2024 12:29 utc | 75

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 17 2024 11:55 utc | 65

I think they had an inkling, given the recon activity in the area a month previously. Russians, despite their popular image, are cautious exponents of the military art, which sometimes means they are wrong-footed by reckless actions.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 17 2024 12:30 utc | 76

Chay Bowes
@BowesChay
Ukrainian "Heroes" looting in Kursk. They have shot innocent civilians. Stolen vehicles and burned homes for "fun"

Maybe now the Western elites in the EUSA that have been funding these criminals for years will realise what they really are.

https://x.com/BowesChay/status/1824746226551492860

Posted by: Menz | Aug 17 2024 12:36 utc | 77

@John Gilberts | Aug 17 2024 11:52 utc | 64
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/08/16/so-what-really-happened-in-kursk/
Pepe Escobar's take.
---
I know slavic people have a penchant for lamenting, but Escobar's report borders on the incredulous.
Not the first time he would have been a bit too enthusiastic for his own sake.

Posted by: Roland | Aug 17 2024 12:38 utc | 78

Posted by: Minaa | Aug 17 2024 11:42 utc | 55
^^^^^------------^^^^^^------------^^^^^^
Didn't [/] tell you that?

Posted by: AI | Aug 17 2024 12:44 utc | 79

The new Ukie attack, planned by the Brits, is a reminder to all, of who really controls the military actions of 404 on the battlefield.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 17 2024 12:45 utc | 80

Russians have a cadaver problem:

The problem with the corpses of Ukrainian Armed Forces servicemen in the forests and ravines of the Kursk region is really turning into our problem. The counter-terrorist operation zone is closed to civilians, we are forced to distract the military personnel and engineers to pull them out of the forests and put them "under the bag" for removal. All the morgues are filled with these corpses. They came, laid down almost 5 thousand people and are still trying to advance somewhere.

https://t.me/vicktop55/25927

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 17 2024 12:49 utc | 81

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 17 2024 12:29 utc | 77

Or more, who cares, it’s better than being dead, that tends to be permanent! In the end the Ukrainian intervention will end, it should have a week ago, but the Ukrainians are without an operational plan, meaning they are unfocused apart from seizing low-hanging fruit and generating good headlines.

I’d err on the shorter of time frame, because the pressure to stop Zelensky’s Folly will grow, after the seizure of Pokrovsk leads to an inevitable collapse of the lines. Something that was absent the last endlessly extended, failed offensive, this time, each day delaying the inevitable makes any consequences, of that delay, increasingly serious.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 17 2024 12:49 utc | 82

Roland | Aug 17 2024 12:38 utc | 80

The negotiations about a truce on infrastructure and then the Qatar official getting a CIA award was a bit telling. Russia often gives the benefit of the doubt rather than react prematurely. Avid pro Russia types jump up and down and tear their hair out every time but that is part and parcel of Russia.
On top of that, I believe Nato did manage to pull off a surprise attack by keeping the force to be used very dispersed and the plans for Kursk kept on a strictly need to know basis right up until only hours before the attack. All vehicles were fitted with starlink so that would have been used to control the widely dispersed forces and tell them when to go.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 12:50 utc | 83

Look at Europe today, sanctioning its own gas, sanctioning its own economies, making it not much less than a spiral of economic ruin. Add to that the billions thrown into the conflict, plus the huge amount of European military equipment that the Russian war machine has chewed up, all of which needs to be replaced.
Russia is now in a much stronger position and the EU/NATO in a much weaker position. As Stoltenberg liked to say "If NATO loses the war in Ukraine, then NATO is finished."
Posted by: Peter AU1 | 17 Aug 2024 12:25 utc | 75

Finally someone remembers what Putin asked Blinken for and was offered a deal on hypersonic missiles.

Automatic translation

Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Aug 17 2024 12:58 utc | 84

Posted by: John Gilberts | Aug 17 2024 11:52 utc | 64
.
.
^^ A tip ^^
Escobar's article ironically mentions the expected future President of the Russian Federation.

Posted by: AI | Aug 17 2024 12:58 utc | 85

Pepe Escobar's take.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Aug 17 2024 11:52 utc | 64

Interesting article and good final paragraph from Escobar, he even manages to say “Russia will eventually solve the Kursk drama …” without it being a euphemism for move along, plebs. One of the many benefits of consulting authors who aren’t sleazy bullshitters.

Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 17 2024 13:04 utc | 86

America gained a new and improved market for liquefied gas exports when it destroyed Nord Stream and persuaded the silly Germans to stop importing Russian gas.

Similarly, the Americans may be thinking that if they can talk / bully the Ukrainians into irradiating the whole of Europe, then they, the Americans, can steal all the Global customers for Europe’s agricultural produce.

It would seem too that the idiots in MI6 think that the Uk would remain unaffected; they are wrong.

After the Chernobyl accident there were significant radiation levels as far North as Orkney, and control measures had to be enacted over the UK to prevent radioactive sheep meat from entering the market.

Posted by: CitizenSmith | Aug 17 2024 13:06 utc | 87

Doha, where ceasefires and peace talks go to die. The empire of lies doesn’t want peace, first it assassinates Palestinians negotiators then it invades Russia, that’s no way to achieve peace

Posted by: Ggershy | Aug 17 2024 13:07 utc | 88

All vehicles were fitted with starlink so that would have been used to control the widely dispersed forces and tell them when to go.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 12:50 utc | 85
.....................
Almost on a daily basis, 'unshakable' paratroopers from the Russia’s Ulyanovsk Airborne Force formation destroy the Ukrainian army’s Starlink satellite antennas by explosive quadcopters on the right bank of the Dnieper River in the Kherson Region.

Posted by: AI | Aug 17 2024 13:07 utc | 89

Posted by: vargas | Aug 17 2024 9:31 utc | 9

But not his analysis. Still lousy and wishy-washy.

Posted by: KitaySupporter | Aug 17 2024 13:09 utc | 90

Why is Russia even negotiating in the first place while none of their objectives have been met yet?

Posted by: Bob567777 | Aug 17 2024 9:00 utc | 1

Iron fist in the velvet glove.

It is an effective military-political tactic of Sun Tzu.
Keep the promise of an "easy way" out open with one hand.
While beating the living hell out of them with the other.

This sows discord within the ranks:

There will be those thinking they can get out easy.
Wondering why they must die when peace is an option.
They begin to disagree and plot against the regime.
They begin to act without conviction, perhaps subvert.

It weakens morale.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 17 2024 13:11 utc | 91

LEMMNING1 | Aug 17 2024 12:58 utc | 86

Always remembering that, the China Russia joint statement, plus Lavrov saying "we accept your challenge to a hybrid war", plus Shoigu saying "we are now fighting Nato" - those things help to keep the kinetic conflict in Ukraine in perspective.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 17 2024 13:14 utc | 92

[email protected] on Zman...you are joking, yes. This thing is just getting started. The huge build up and, ahem, suprise of the Kursk attack basically says one of three or four things.... with the biggest hopium being Russia planned it all along, passed it off to Whitehall and Whitehall obliged.....cue Gonzalo Lira's laugh track.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 17 2024 13:17 utc | 93

Martyanov says the AFU is run from the US base in Ramstein, Germany, by US generals, and from the Pentagon by US generals.

So, essentially, Russia is winning the war.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 17 2024 11:13 utc | 39

So Ramstein=Furherbunker? Just so. Steiner should be here at any moment.

Posted by: Zippy the Pinhead | Aug 17 2024 13:21 utc | 94

CitizenSmith @ 89

America gained a new and improved market for liquefied gas exports when it destroyed Nord Stream and persuaded the silly Germans to stop importing Russian gas.

The Germans won't be buying that much, they will be moving their fossil fuel intensive industries to China and India where they can get cheap Russian fuel. Loss for Germany, loss for USA.

BTW if anyone thinks capable, competent, lauded German industrial and polical leaders have any more allegiance to the German nation and people than the USA or UK, they will be in for a surprise. Instead of forty years to deindustrialize, Germany will bum-rush it in five.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 17 2024 13:25 utc | 95

sean the leprechaun @ 95

with the biggest hopium being Russia planned it all along, passed it off to Whitehall and Whitehall obliged....

You're the only one saying that.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 17 2024 13:28 utc | 96

Why is Russia even negotiating in the first place while none of their objectives have been met yet?

Posted by: Bob567777 | Aug 17 2024 9:00 utc | 1

Because when Russia finally take over 404, it will be better that the electricity infrastructure is still functioning.

The goal,is to de militiarise, not bring more suffering than necessary to the civilians.

Posted by: PalmaSailor | Aug 17 2024 13:31 utc | 97

I am very skeptical about the Qatari negotiations story for several reasons:
1) Putin has stated that it is impossible to negotiate with Zelensky and his cohorts because they have no legitimacy.
2)Qatar is an extremely strange place for such talks. It is a country that hosts a US military base. Qatar was also involved in a dispute with Saudi that almost erupted in war. Remember MBS is a very important member of Brics.
3)IMO Putin's not-so-secret wish is for the ukrainians to throw off Zelensky and return to the embrace of Mother Russia.

I don't buy this at all.

Posted by: Stierlitz | Aug 17 2024 13:31 utc | 98

I SUGGEST TO ASK POROSHENKO about this. Paraphrasing: "russian children will sit (and wailing . . . ) in the basements, while OUR children will see the glorious Bandera shine and fork"

Poroshenko - the expert of underground miseries.

Posted by: LogosApplied | Aug 17 2024 13:33 utc | 99

Posted by: Bob567777 | Aug 17 2024 9:00 utc | 1

Bob wins the thread with the first post. Why would Russia agree to anything with a non-agreement capable entity?

Qatar is also a puppet state of the Empire. Nothing good can come of any "agreement" reached on their soil. It is a den of treachery and deceit, making Erdogan look like a good-faith actor.

Plus, doesn't Russia remember how the grain corridor agreement fell apart? The West cheated and reneged on their promise to lift sanctions on Russian fertilizer.

Here is how it would have gone down had Russia foolishly agreed to an energy attack ceasefire:

1. Russia stops energy attacks
2. Ukraine continues them
3. Russia whines
4. See #2
5. repeat 1-4

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Aug 17 2024 13:34 utc | 100

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