Ukraine SitRep: Catch up
Due to my recent health issues I could not report on Ukraine for quite a while. This is my first attempt to catch up with the issue.
Given the huge size of Ukraine the changes in the front line between April 1 and August 1 seem minuscule.
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But the small moves on the map disguise a rather large progress for the Russian forces.
In May some 30,000 Russian troops crossed the northern border from Russia towards Kharkiv. They quickly reached a depth of some 15 kilometer but then stopped to make fast progress. According the Russian president Vladimir Putin the forces were tasked to prevent further Ukrainian artillery attacks on Belgorod. They have mostly achieved that purpose.
But the Ukrainian side interpreted the move as an attack on Kharkiv with the purported aim to take Ukraine's second largest city. It panicked.
Troops that had been pulled back because of losses were redirected to Kharkiv. Brigades that were fighting in the Donetsk region in the east were moved north to block the Russian forces. In total some 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers were pulled from elsewhere and pushed into the Kharkiv region. They were tasked with counterattacking the Russian forces.
This fitted the Russian plans very well. The whole attack near Kharkiv had been planned as a diversion from other fronts. The troops deployed in the north went into defense and concentrated on eliminating counterattacking Ukrainian forces.
While this was ongoing the Russian forces on the Donetsk front found that the man- and fighting power of their local opponents had sharply decreased. They attacked and soon made significant progress.
Months ago it took weeks to take a small town or to jump to the next treeline. Now the Russian forces make jumps of several kilometer per day and take new towns on a daily and sometimes hourly basis.
The maps of the eastern front show rather large progress in several directions.
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In the south the Russian forces east of Vuhledar moved north and cut one of the supply roads to the city.
To the north west of Donetsk city Russian forces made huge progress towards Pokrovsk city, one of the main road and rail crossings in the region. Pokrovsk is already in normal artillery range and the Ukrainian forces defending its approaches seem to be utterly worn out.
North east of the Pokrovsk front Russian forces are in the process of taking the New York agglomeration of several cities from the north as well as from the south.
A bit further north moves from Kurdiumivka and from Chasiv Yar are aiming at taking Konstantinovka, another major city controlling various crossroads.
All the above moves were possible because Ukraine had moved whatever was available towards the Kharkiv front. The defense units left behind in the Donetsk region were simply not enough to hold the line against the still growing Russian forces.
A new push for mobilization has helped Ukraine to bring fresh troops to the front. They are however not increasing the forces but simply replace the large losses Ukrainian brigades have had. A recent New York Times piece mentioned this in an aside note (archived):
Ukraine Is Conscripting Thousands More Troops. But Are They Ready?
Large numbers of recruits will arrive at the front in the coming weeks, soldiers and military analysts said, but some are poorly trained or out of shape.The Ukrainian authorities have declined to share conscription figures, arguing that the information is confidential. Three military experts with knowledge of the figures said that Kyiv had been drafting up to 30,000 people a month since May, when a new conscription law took effect. That is two to three times more than during the last winter months, they said, and about the same number that the Russian Army is recruiting each month. That figure could not be independently confirmed.
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Gen. Yurii Sodol, a former commander of the Ukrainian forces, told Parliament in April that in certain sections of the front, Russians outnumbered Ukrainians by more than seven to one.
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In addition to the conscripts, Ukraine has released some 3,800 prisoners to serve in exchange for the possibility of parole at the end of their fighting duties, according to Denys Maliuska, the justice minister.
A medic fighting near the eastern Ukrainian town of Toretsk, one of the hottest points on the front line, said that her brigade had received 2,000 conscripts and prisoners in the past two months. The medic spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid giving information to Russian forces.
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Mr. Voytenkov, the press officer for the 33rd, said his brigade gave one week of additional training to conscripts to show them the weapons and armored vehicles that they would be using. After just the basic training, he said, “they are not ready to fight, honestly.”
Toretsk is part of the New York agglomeration. A Ukraine brigade has a nominal strength of some 3,000 to 4,000 men. If it has needed 2,000 replacements in two months, as the medic claims, it must have taken enormous losses.
The new recruits are mostly untrained and not fit for war. The units they are sent to lack the junior leaders needed to train them. The new men will thereby become cannon fodder with little chance to survive Russian attacks or bombing.
The new mobilization was partly intended to create new reserves. But when active troops need replacements of this size the numbers left for new forces will be too small to make a difference.
In a recent interview with the Guardian the Ukrainian commander in chief General Syrsky made some optimistic noise about 'winning'. But the numbers he cited all point to an overwhelming Russian forces that will easily smash whatever is left in Ukraine to oppose them:
Syrskyi is Ukraine’s new commander-in-chief. His unenviable task is to defeat a bigger Russian army. Two and half years into Vladimir Putin’s full-scale onslaught, he acknowledges the Russians are much better resourced. They have more of everything: tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, soldiers. Their original 100,000-strong invasion force has grown to 520,000, he said, with a goal by the end of 2024 of 690,000 men. The figures for Ukraine have not been made public.“When it comes to equipment, there is a ratio of 1:2 or 1:3 in their favour,” he said. Since 2022 the number of Russian tanks has “doubled” – from 1,700 to 3,500. Artillery systems have tripled, and armoured personnel carriers gone up from 4,500 to 8,900. “The enemy has a significant advantage in force and resources,” Syrskyi said. “Therefore, for us, the issue of supply, the issue of quality, is really at the forefront.”
There are little if any new supplies coming for the Ukrainian forces. The 'West' has given Ukraine everything it could spare and anything that comes on top of that will have to be newly produced. The capacities to do that in the required numbers are no longer existing.
Aside from the immediate military problems the civilian side of Ukraine is on an ever accelerating down-path. Russian attacks have destroyed nearly all conventional power generation capacities in Ukraine. There are daily blackouts. Food is perishing in the shops and many industries had to stop working.
The Ukrainian government needs money. It needs to introduce new taxes against the resistance of its population. It has already defaulted on foreign debt and new credit lines will be difficult to come by.
The real pressure though will come this winter. Large parts of Ukraine's cities depend on the now dysfunctional power generating capacities to heat their Soviet style housing blocks. With electricity and heat lacking more and more people will think of moving abroad.
It is unlikely that Poland and other neighboring countries of Ukraine will generously welcome even more refugees from Ukraine.
Posted by b on August 2, 2024 at 14:59 UTC | Permalink
next page »If you look at maps of WW2 and the liberation of the Ukraine by the Red Army, you see huge "big arrow" offensives. But if you then time frame them, what actually occurred was a few kilometres every day, but over hundreds of days that added up. Now whilst the two wars are very different in so many ways, I thought this was a point worth mentioning. And also the Ostheer left it too late to withdraw over the Dneiper, and we may see that again, with a parallel type of sitution unfolding. Anyway, the gain or loss of ground is not so important right now as the loss/replacement ratios - and clearly in Russia's favour - but in the end the Russians will have to gain ground and a lot of it.
Posted by: marcjf | Aug 2 2024 15:15 utc | 2
It’s sickening. The end game is mostly already baked in. Artificially propping up the Kiev regime is just getting more and more people killed. The conscripts are likely not interested in dying for this lost cause. Sad.
B, I’m glad you’re feeling better.
Posted by: KMRIA | Aug 2 2024 15:27 utc | 3
b, seems like your RnR is going well. Slow and steady.....the odd update, but don't over do it.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 2 2024 15:28 utc | 4
wellcome back in the sadle,b, but take care of you and thank you for the article. This war is likely comming to and end untill this year is over. Biden-blob is panicking what DJT will do to end the war as promised with massive unfortune for 404 (and moreover the US money involved there). So the blob is desperatly trying to end that war before November hoping for a peace with bearable conditions for 404. Of course, the russkies had learned a lot of how the west can be trustet, and will snub that attempts.
But anyhow, it is likely that the US will accept the conditions of Russia, otherwise a possible Trump will finish the job.
With Satanyahoo fighting his last war, US must focus and have to ababdon the ukro adventure. US money will be disgruntled..haha..
Posted by: ableman | Aug 2 2024 15:30 utc | 5
Thank you, thank you, b. You have gone beyond due diligence in this posting. It has enabled us, your "contributors" to formulate the Big Picture and the progression of events. All the best in your recovery and thanks again.
Posted by: aristodemos | Aug 2 2024 15:31 utc | 6
Great update today. Health and happiness to you, B.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 2 2024 15:54 utc | 9
Thanks for the posting b and wish you the best of health
I still think Ukraine will have to surrender before the US November voting and that will be messy
From the NYT quote
Three military experts with knowledge of the figures said that Kyiv had been drafting up to 30,000 people a month since May, when a new conscription law took effect
If Ukraine is losing 50-60K month then how soon to zero?
The demilitarization of NATO/Ukraine seems to be almost complete. Not sure about the denazification.
What is keeping Ukraine surrender from happening?
When do we get to see the first F16 get taken out?
Moar Cowbell!!!
Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 2 2024 16:09 utc | 10
Sounds like Russia continues to have everything well in hand. Surely they have some difficulties here and there but the purging of people in the MoD for fraud and corruption is a sign of health. Only a strong executive could effectively go after bad actors (and traitors) during wartime.
Death by 1,000 cuts. Someone recently said (paraphrased) slow, slow, slow, and then all at once.
When Ukraine breaks it will be shattered. It won't be a matter of 50,000 NATO troops or a new leader. Ukraine as we knew it since 2014 will be over and something completely new will emerge in its place.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 2 2024 16:10 utc | 11
Makes me wonder, proxy Ukie assisted forces (if true) attacking Russian PM forces in Africa, seen a blurp Ukie helping ISIS 3.0 attack Russia and or Syrian forces in Syria.
Ukie can't won't sign Peace Agreement with Russia.
Russia is left to negotiate with the US.
There have been times during the SMO where Ukie went Postal, off script.
Without complete and utter subjugation of 404, Russia will be dealing with Brit subterfuge and terror attacks for many years to come. Glass over London????
Pretty please, can I press the button?
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 2 2024 16:10 utc | 12
Yes, waiting for winter.
This winter will be harsher than ever, as Russia recently launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine's electricity grid. Although my poor reading experience, it seems that the bitter cold of winter has always been very effective in destroying the morale of soldiers.
The second is that the US is in the election season, which is likely to change the political balance of power somewhat. Ofcourse There is no hope of any improvement in the fundamental viciousness of US imperialism, but a change in the proportion of resources allocated can be expected. The exit of the Biden crime family is certain, and the extent to which this will reduce the enthusiasm of US political circles for supporting Ukraine should be measured again in the winter.
I too believe that these will have a considerable negative impact on Ukraine's ability to continue fighting.
Posted by: Nokaz | Aug 2 2024 16:11 utc | 13
Remember Ukraine, exactly who got you into this mess.
Posted by: Fred777 | Aug 2 2024 16:13 utc | 14
War Mapper had very interesting charts showing the percentage of different oblasts RFA holds.
If we make the enabling assumption that Putin might settle for the remaining part of the Donetsk (about 40%), it would still take 50 months(just over 4 years) to capture it. And that's with 200 kmsq/month (i.e. "good months" like JUL, not their average over last 6, which is about half that.) RFA alsready hold 98% of Luhansk. In Kherson, there's no way they are crossing that fat river. So forget taking the remaining part of that oblast. Most of unrecovered Zhap is also extremely well fortified (on both sides) and movement near Robotyne will not be significant.
I still think we end up with some papered over armistice, a Korea solution. Neither side has the ability to break the others lines. Eventually they decide to stop pounding sand and split the baby. And it will be roughly at current lines. (Maybe RFA give back the little Kharkov incursion as a "chip".)
The issue is really much more with the West. Russia can paper over a failure to get all it stated goals and claim partial victory. And has been signaling willingness to haggle. Ukraine is still very much against accepting loss of territory. And the powers that be in the Wet don't want to let Russia "get away with it". Ideally, Putin would compel them to the table by a big military threat. But current rate of advance (yes, even at .03% instead of .01% or .02%) is not that scary. Which leave us with the current situation and the need to see who gets tired first.
Looking at the fronts:
Kherson: nothing happening.
Robotyne: nothing happening
Vuhledar/Konstant: Some recent RFA nibbling, with partial success. Is possible they convert this too a real threat, but to be seen. There is an incredibly long history of flawed RFA assaults on Vuhl. So I would wait before being confident of RFA ability here. All that said, some little recent inklinks of RFA progress. Even the "cut the highway" is something to wait on. We heard that before from DPA a couple weeks ago and it was invalidated. Even flags on the road are not so menaingful...can be (and have been) drone dropped, or planted and run, or revereed by counterattacks. But...we will see.
Ocheretnye bloom: kinda static/slowed on the Umanske tendril. Progress tendril is the best RFA front. This is where most territory being taken. Looks like Progress progress resumed after a few day rest. Not much happening to the direct north of the bloom.
NY/Toretsk: Definitely looks under extreme threat, but also strange that things have slowed/stopped. And that UFA had a successful counterattack within the city. Sorta wonder what is taking RFA so long to close the pocket.
Chasiv Yar: Very static. And very strong position for UFA to defend.
Luhansk: Donno...pretty static, boring also.
Kharkiv: Pretty static, with some indications of UFA having more the initiative recently.
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 2 2024 16:29 utc | 15
There have been times during the SMO where Ukie went Postal, off script.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 2 2024 16:10 utc | 12
I don't think they do anything on their own, they no longer exist. There must be multiple factions in control, so it looks chaotic. Remember when Ukr killed about 1k of their own best soldiers, lost a few ships, helicopters and planes trying to land on the rock called Snake island? That was a faction, probably Bojo. Others focus on terrorism, barrier troops, steal, body parts traffic, weapons traffic and so on.
Posted by: rk | Aug 2 2024 16:38 utc | 16
Gruss Gott, B!
Glad that you are feeling better.
Very interesting new, detailed SITREP.
The Obama-Biden crew totally screwed Ukraine
with the help of John McCain.
They will never rise again.
I love the maps you provide.
Posted by: Jane | Aug 2 2024 16:39 utc | 17
I still think we end up with some papered over armistice, a Korea solution. Neither side has the ability to break the others lines. Eventually they decide to stop pounding sand and split the baby. And it will be roughly at current lines. (Maybe RFA give back the little Kharkov incursion as a "chip".)
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 2 2024 16:29 utc | 15
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The Russians haven't been trying to break Ukraine's lines. When will you guys (you're all interchangeable when it comes to the "quality" of your bad takes) drop the whole territory thing?
Russia doesn't want territory to have territory. Russia is already enormous. They are attriting the Ukrainian military and NATO stockpiles. The goal has always been DE-MILITARIZATION. Which will allow for DE-NAZIFICATION through political change. Which will prevent a future NATO Ukraine for a generation or so.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 2 2024 16:44 utc | 18
Good to see, b, that you have enough stamina for sustained writing and its related research. However, it appears the Zionists want the world to look at what will happen to them instead of what's being done to Ukraine.
As for the appearance of F-16s in Western Ukie skies, IMO it won't be long until the first are downed by Russia's very long-range AA missiles from a distance of @400Km.
As for the ground war, there remain at least three full months of good operational weather. And as for the Nazis allowing negotiations with Russia, they won't be happening until the Nazis are erased; and IMO, that's a task Zelensky's powerless to complete.
Welcome back B!
As mentioned earlier you seem to be in full form and it shows in your posts.
Yes, the "tendrils" show that RF is doing serious advances and the tactic of dispersing AFU forces worked flawlessly.
So the AFU numbers , not to mention quality, are dwindling but there is something else that I think I should mention.
The UN refugee department has the number of ukranians crossing the border westward since the start of the SMO in the 38 million, also in their numbers, roughly half doesn't plan to return.
That means roughly 20 million left and haven't returned.
Losing oblasts and others that went to RF proper maybe 8 Million?
AFU was able to recruit from when most hadn't left , but currently?
Starting from maybe 44, that would mean 44-20-8 , consider it's round numbers and throw in a number of KIA/MIA between half and a full million.. it's currently down to 15 million?
Maybe power won't be such a problem with so few left.... Just kidding, 15 million, mostly elderly that might die with the cold? 404 starts to look a good description.
If the objective was to empty a country it has worked marvelously for the west. The big challenge for RF will be to make a good portion of those 20 million in the west decide that the new russian ukraine is worth returning well beyond the western illusion.
Hope you get a full recovery and thank you.
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 2 2024 16:49 utc | 20
Posted by: Jane | Aug 2 2024 16:39 utc | 17
Don't forget Senator Chris Murphy.
Posted by: lex talionis | Aug 2 2024 16:49 utc | 21
War Mapper had very interesting charts showing the percentage of different oblasts RFA holds.
If we make the enabling assumption that Putin might settle for the remaining part of the Donetsk (about 40%), it would still take 50 months(just over 4 years) to capture it. And that's with 200 kmsq/month (i.e. "good months" like JUL, not their average over last 6, which is about half that.) RFA alsready hold 98% of Luhansk. In Kherson, there's no way they are crossing that fat river. So forget taking the remaining part of that oblast. Most of unrecovered Zhap is also extremely well fortified (on both sides) and movement near Robotyne will not be significant.
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 2 2024 16:29 utc | 15
And if you had made the same calculations somewhere in february 2022 then ukraine and poland would have fallen by april and by the summer RF would have conquered the whole of europe and be at the doors of New York (the US one)
So tired of this crap.
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 2 2024 16:52 utc | 22
As for the appearance of F-16s in Western Ukie skies, IMO it won't be long until the first are downed by Russia's very long-range AA missiles from a distance of @400Km.
Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 2 2024 16:45 utc | 19
So far RF had to deal mainly with drones and missiles, let there be F-16 and you might start to see a whole lot of SU-35 and SU-57 doing their part (specially with a very reduced AD on the AFU side and if RF keeps Global Hawks and other reconnaissance assets out of ukraine and general vicinity)
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 2 2024 16:58 utc | 23
You think ukraine is tired now? There's a possibility that in 2029 time frame nato will feel ready to launch a new force armed with new weapons and new factories to supply it. Russia has to keep going for 5 more years until they can destroy an actual nato army. Only then can nato consider disbanding as counter productive to security.
How the next 5 years shape up I'm not sure, maybe a nato protectorate of the rest of ukraine with territorial claims. I don't think full scale war will continue all that time, but I don't see any permanent peace while Nato is so focused on Russia.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 2 2024 16:59 utc | 24
So glad to see you feeling better b! once again you have some of the best analysis on the entire interwebs. Thank you for all your efforts
A toast to b's continued recovery!
Posted by: Ezzie | Aug 2 2024 17:00 utc | 25
Posted by: Jane | Aug 2 2024 16:39 utc | 17
You left out the con man in the middle who played Putin into thinking there could be negotiations and peace even as he armed and trained Ukraine and pulled out of the INF and open sky's treaties. Or do you think the guy who met with Yeltsin in Moscow in 1985 on a 'goodwill mission' was not part of the blob? Because if you did he played you even better than he did Putin.
Posted by: badjoke | Aug 2 2024 17:03 utc | 26
Civilian unrest. They have found one viable outlet. The numbers of the TCC - militiary recruiters vehicles that are being torched has really spiked.
Posted by: paxmark1 | Aug 2 2024 17:03 utc | 27
Let’s have a metaphor competition. Look at the following clip from ‘Force 10 from Navarone’, what situation might this possibly resemble? Bonus points for linking posters to the actors shown.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGM-0wJI1X4
Posted by: Milites | Aug 2 2024 17:07 utc | 28
Ah...muh attrition. :)
Got a cope (cage) SAT analogy for you. Attrition::Russoophiles as F-16s::NAFO. Heck, I could even just say attrition is to each side. They are so quick to point to attrition when dismissing the RFA gains (or small size of the RFA gains). It's why I really see this bizarro mirror world with both sides. I guess hopium is a problem for each side. "A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest."
RFA could take territory, but doesn't bother. The grapes are sour, I never wanted them, said the fox that failed to climb the tree.
----------------------
Look...UFA is sitting on 40% of Donetsk, on 22% of Zhap, on 22% of Kherson, and 2% of Luhansk. Given the annexation, that is FORMALLY Russian territory. And Putin could retake it, but doesn't bother? Huh?
Look it is obvious that RFA lacks any near term ability to threaten taking Kherson City. They actually LEFT IT because it was too hard to hold, across the river. Dude...that's not "not wanting more territory" (remember this is formally Russian land). That is can't climb the tree to eat the grapes.
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 2 2024 17:22 utc | 29
Russia doesn't want territory to have territory. Russia is already enormous. They are attriting the Ukrainian military and NATO stockpiles. The goal has always been DE-MILITARIZATION. Which will allow for DE-NAZIFICATION through political change. Which will prevent a future NATO Ukraine for a generation or so.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 2 2024 16:44 utc | 18
===========
But how will the Russians ensure that that neutralized buffer zone remains a buffer zone if they don't actually control the territory? A "client" head of state? That is not a very good look . . .
Posted by: Jane | Aug 2 2024 17:25 utc | 30
Posted by: Milites | Aug 2 2024 17:07 utc | 28
Anonymous could play the part of the German tank driver, getting swept into the river as the bridge collapses, “I don’t see any imminent collapse” he shouts as he goes over.
I would audition for the role of ‘Smiling Partisan’ watching the Nazis getting washed away when the dam bursts.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Aug 2 2024 17:29 utc | 31
Good to see your continued recovery b. Pace yourself.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Aug 2 2024 17:32 utc | 32
Or do you think the guy who met with Yeltsin in Moscow in 1985 on a 'goodwill mission' was not part of the blob? Because if you did he played you even better than he did Putin.
Posted by: badjoke | Aug 2 2024 17:03 utc | 26
====
Guys, guys, I didn't spend a lot of time on this!
Like, 15 seconds. It just popped into my head.
Obviously the list is long of those who---with dollars signs in their eyeballs and with the avid help of Ukrainians themselves---orchestrated the de facto downfall of Ukraine, and the decimation of the Ukrainians.
Posted by: Jane | Aug 2 2024 17:33 utc | 33
Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 2 2024 16:45 utc | 19
You are really unlikely to be able to shoot down an F-16 or any other 3/4th gen jet at the extreme edge of the range of a solid fueled air to air missile. There is just not enough energy left. 200-300km is more likely for these types of aircraft. Aircraft with low thrust to weight ratios and poor maneuverability are probably fair game but anything else is likely off the menu. Hell the SU-25 can hit Mach 1.2 and pull 8g sustained turns so they are also a long shot past 300km.
Posted by: badjoke | Aug 2 2024 17:40 utc | 34
Attrition is the strategy, not kilometers. Eventually when the AFU is exhausted, the sudden collapse will come.
Posted by: SmallStepForMan | Aug 2 2024 17:47 utc | 35
Posted by: Jane | Aug 2 2024 17:33 utc | 33
Sorry. I guess technically you could say every president since Truman has been active in supporting NAZI's in Ukraine.
Posted by: badjoke | Aug 2 2024 17:52 utc | 36
I recently spoke with a woman who grew up in the Soviet Union and with current family relations in Kaliningrad and Ukraine. She expected Ukraine east of Dniepr to become Russia, also including Odessa. Galicia in the west would probably become Polish. In between she expected a large gray zone. She also told me about someone driving trucks between Hungary and Ukraine who reported road constructions in Hungary towards the border, possibly implying future land connection between Hungary and Russia via the gray zone.
Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 2 2024 17:52 utc | 37
Good to see b steadily recovering in health and strength.
I also see that @Anonymous and @Napoleon continue to strenuously avoid even discussing the concept of financial and economic attrition as it applies to Ukraine, despite reams of evidence.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 2 2024 17:59 utc | 38
Norwegian | Aug 2 2024 17:52 utc | 37
From a belligerent West's perspective, a large grey zone is perfect for launching things into Russia. Maybe that's what the new road is about?
Posted by: robin | Aug 2 2024 18:09 utc | 39
The question still remains that if the Russians have such superior forces why are they not forcing a surrender? The usual answer is that they want to demilitarize Ukraine by killing soldiers and destroying equipment--I don't entirely buy it. To me it appears that the Russian officers in charge of the war are less competent than their Ukrainian counterparts and, I suggest, the average untrained soldiers appear braver and more resouceful--witness the many successful counter-attacks in several areas and very, very, very slow Russian advances. And where are all the mass-surrenders pro-Russian voices are always anticipating?
eem
Now I could be wrong and the Russians are just waiting for the US election so they don't want to risk any major change that could sway the election towards Trump. Putin seems to not be too anxious to have to deal with Trump and prefers the collective leadership of incompetents that is the current Biden situation and, for sure, would be in the Harris administration. The Russians and Chinese love the idea of dealing with a confused power center in Washington.
Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Aug 2 2024 18:13 utc | 40
Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 2 2024 17:52 utc | 37
A depopulation in the 'middle' Ukraine is certainly plausible, and already occurring. According to ex Ukraine PM Azarov, there are 19 million people left in current Ukraine controlled territories. Martyanov also speculates it could be less than that.
A depopulation is inevitable IMO. The population will scatter, either west or east.
And what will become of the depopulated area in the middle? A grey war zone, most likely.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 2 2024 18:16 utc | 41
Norwegian | Aug 2 2024 17:52 utc | 37
From a belligerent West's perspective, a large grey zone is perfect for launching things into Russia. Maybe that's what the new road is about?
Posted by: robin | Aug 2 2024 18:09 utc | 39
Waiting for a Hungarian government that view's the situation "the right way"?
Posted by: jpc | Aug 2 2024 18:23 utc | 42
Posted by: Jane | Aug 2 2024 17:25 utc | 30
...Russia doesn't want territory to have territory. Russia is already enormous. They are attriting the Ukrainian military and NATO stockpiles. The goal has always been DE-MILITARIZATION. Which will allow for DE-NAZIFICATION through political change. Which will prevent a future NATO Ukraine for a generation or so.Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 2 2024 16:44 utc | 18
===========But how will the Russians ensure that that neutralized buffer zone remains a buffer zone if they don't actually control the territory? A "client" head of state? That is not a very good look . . .
Indeed. And before even going into the aspects of de-nazification and what the term actually means on the ground, it isn't clear how Russia could impose any sort of political change in Ukraine. In my opinion, the West would be in a very comfortable position to undermine any development it doesn't like.
Building insurgencies, engineering civil wars, this is where the West truly shines. Except in this case, it wouldn't even have to hide its schemes.
Posted by: robin | Aug 2 2024 18:35 utc | 43
b, seems like your RnR is going well. Slow and steady.....the odd update, but don't over do it.
Cheers M
Since June, you've only gotten better by
.02%. At this rate it will take you 80 years to get better...
If the RFA has such overwhelming force (that they just "choose" not to advance with), why did they retreat from Kherson City? And what were they doing there in the first place?
Oh...and why is RFA "choosing" to do most of its "muh attrition" strategy within territory that is formally part of Russia?
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 2 2024 18:43 utc | 45
Any talk of insurgency or demilitarised zones overlooks one thing; Russia‘s December 2021 security architecture treaty publication.
This document, or at least large parts of it, will oversee the military and political future of any parts of Ukraine that remain in existence once collapse and capitulation have run their course.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 2 2024 18:44 utc | 46
On Z&V there is a new video of Arestovich who says every day 6k men try to escape from Ukr. I don't know what game he's playing but they did place fences, drones, infrared cameras, mines, EU proudly donated many cars to Moldova to improve the capture. So the number trying to escape every day must be high
Posted by: rk | Aug 2 2024 18:46 utc | 47
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 2 2024 18:43 utc | 45
Aaand... still no comment on the impact of financial and economic attrition!
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 2 2024 18:47 utc | 48
If Ukraine is losing 50-60K month then how soon to zero?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 2 2024 16:09 utc | 10
Currently the Day of the Last Ukrainian stands at April 23, 2025.
IMHO, don't see this as an exact date. What's interesting is whether it's coming closer or receding.
Personally,
Posted by: Passerby | Aug 2 2024 18:48 utc | 49
Actually, thinking about it, probably the best outcome for any rump Ukrainian entity would be to apply to join BRICS!
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 2 2024 18:51 utc | 50
It’s sickening. The end game is mostly already baked in. Artificially propping up the Kiev regime is just getting more and more people killed. The conscripts are likely not interested in dying for this lost cause. Sad.
Posted by: KMRIA | Aug 2 2024 15:27 utc | 3
They could have better gone to prison.
But they still want to fight and die.
so, Ukraine is still strong enough and that is what the west wants.
Strangely enough, it seems thatvtge west has problems with financing Ukraine. I supose that would be the escalation moment. To shorten the war, the west could launch a preemptive attack on Russia.
Posted by: vargas | Aug 2 2024 18:53 utc | 51
[...]the west could launch a preemptive attack on Russia.
Posted by: vargas | Aug 2 2024 18:53 utc | 51
Good luck with that.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 2 2024 18:59 utc | 52
@robin | Aug 2 2024 18:09 utc | 39
I think the grey zone was to be understood as neutral or unavailable to weaponize by the west.
Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 2 2024 19:03 utc | 53
. So the number trying to escape every day must be high
Posted by: rk | Aug 2 2024 18:46 utc | 47
=========
That suggests that the Ukrainians are smarter than we tend to give them credit for.
Posted by: Jane | Aug 2 2024 19:12 utc | 54
Sometimes I get the impression that Ukraine is contributing to its own attrition from within.
The tender for the reconstruction of the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital, which was damaged by a russian missile, will be canceled and a new one will be held.Minister of Health Viktor Liashko stated this at a press conference.
He emphasized that the contract with the winner of the tender caused a negative public response, which is why it was not signed. The new tender will be conducted through the state procurement system Prozorro. This will happen within 7-16 days.
Funds collected for the Okhmatdyt Charity Fund will be transferred to the hospital's treasury account. UAH 312 million went directly to the charity account of the Okhmatdyt institution, UAH 378 million to the Okhmatdyt charity fund, UAH 320 million were collected through the United24 platform, and another UAH 100 million was allocated by the government from the reserve fund.
The decision will be made by the supervisory board made up of representatives of the Ministry of Health, the administration of the children's hospital and benefactors who donated the largest sums for the reconstruction of Okhmatdyt.
We will remind you that the tender for the restoration of the hospital was won by a company that has only 1 mobile crane, 1 dump truck and 1 excavator on lease [LMAO - JR-L]. It was the third most expensive offer from construction companies with an offer amounting to UAH 307 million.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 2 2024 19:16 utc | 55
The money that Zelensky needs - will come in the form of 1.5 billion that the EU has stolen from frozen Russian assets in Europe - several countries are also sending fighter jets to Ukraine. Of course it will be nowhere near enough - and Russia will continue to press forward and achieve most of its goals.
Worse still for the Neo-Nazi led regime in Ukraine - is the sending of ill- trained and prepared men and women to the front line, where they will ultimately be killed - is it any wonder then that millions of Ukrainian men and women have fled the country - and are mostly spread throughout Europe.
Zelensky and his government - along with warmongering military men need to be removed and a peace plan with Russia needs to be created.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Aug 2 2024 19:19 utc | 56
robin @43: "And before even going into the aspects of de-nazification and what the term actually means on the ground, it isn't clear how Russia could impose any sort of political change in Ukraine."
How did the Empire impose "political change" in the Ukraine? How were people who were mostly normal, if a bit provincial and backwards, turned into raving homicidal lunatics jumping up and down and chanting about "knifing Moskals"?
China deprogrammed homicidal Uighurs who had been brainwashed into killing machines by Wahhabi madrasas and clerics, so it is possible to turn people suffering from mass psychosis back into normal human beings, given patience and perseverance. The Russians can accomplish the same thing in the Ukraine.
First and foremost, the Empire's influence apparatus must be purged from the Ukraine. Get foreign and oligarch monies out of the mass media. Shut down all fake NGOs. Burn the school textbooks that were written in the West by literal Nazis. Put the Banderists on very public trial... broadcast it every night. Publicly crush the Nazis in the courtrooms by grinding their noses in their own crimes in the most brutal and excruciating detail, hiding nothing from the public. Put on display to the Ukrainian public what utter shit the Nazis are.
Meanwhile, treat the normal, non-criminal Ukrainians with compassion. Give them a hand up putting the region back together again.
Normal people are always grateful when you eradicate the Nazi infestations that plague them. It's like curing someone's cancer. Exactly like curing someone's cancer. You eliminate the Nazis from a people's society and the whole tone of that society brightens, flowers blossom, and rainbows appear... or at least seems that way to the population. When the Nazis are finally driven from power by force, the Ukrainian population will even take matters into their own hands, leaving swastika tattooed freaks dangling by the neck from lampposts across the country. In fact, the Russians will likely end up protecting many of the Nazis so that they live long enough to be put on trial and executed legally.
Don't worry yourself about the Nazis, robin. Despite how much love the NAFO types have for fascist freaks, nobody actually wants a Nazi for a neighbor, except maybe Canadians. When they get the chance, the Ukrainian people themselves will be taking out the Banderist trash.
Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 2 2024 19:27 utc | 57
power generating capacities to heat their Soviet style housing blocks.
As my Russian wife pointed out to me, they’re not “soviet style”, they are soviet.
Posted by: PalmaSailor | Aug 2 2024 19:32 utc | 58
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 2 2024 19:16 utc | 55
=================
Ukraine had already won the Olympic Gold Medal in Corruption as the most corrupt nation in Europe long before this latest chapter. Long before the Maidan.
It is one of the many reasons why, after 1991---with all of its many assets to support the development of a strong national economy; it is the largest country in Europe, ffs, with the earth's best agricultural soil and lots of minerals and significant heavy industry and modern infrastructure inherited from the USSR plus regular gas supply from former USSR---instead things went down down down and the population loss started immediately. I think the biggest factor was emigration, because the economy wasn't flourishing. Just in the energy sector the corruption was flabbergasting. One of the sources of constant friction with Russia. The main reason for building Nord Stream 2.
In 1991 the pop was 52 million.
By 2021 there were only 41 million.
Posted by: Jane | Aug 2 2024 19:33 utc | 59
Glad to see you're close to fully restored, b. The site feels that way.
Question for the flies: occasionally I see reports of sabotage against the Z regime carried out by internal resistance. A train line blown up, cars derailed. Are the reports accurate, and do we have any idea who is carrying out the attacks?
Posted by: dadooronron | Aug 2 2024 19:45 utc | 60
Polite reminder to all - Kharkov is spelt K h a r k o v. There is no "i" in Kharkov.
Please stop using the western / ukrainian propaganda "re-spelling" of Kharkov as "Kharkiv". People not familiar with history will believe that if the city has a western / ukranian name then "it must be" Ukrainian and therefore Russia is the usurper. This is basic psyops below even lesson 101 which I expect everyone here to comprehend - "control the language control the thought".
Posted by: Kharkov is Russian | Aug 2 2024 19:53 utc | 61
In 1991 the pop was 52 million.
By 2021 there were only 41 million.
Posted by: Jane | Aug 2 2024 19:33 utc | 59
Same with the Baltics: always complaining about the Russians. Yet their population peaked under the USSR, declined ever since.
Posted by: Passerby | Aug 2 2024 20:03 utc | 62
Regarding Female Ukrainans being "Conscripted".
Firstly, these "Cooks", "Medics", and "Drivers" are rarely conscripted - they volunteer, others are Intel Service "Girl Bosses" and by default play victim and cry how their comrades bully them / abuse them. Lies.
Many women in uniform are vicious hard-core Nazi supporters or extreme nationalists who willingly choose to take up arms and kill. Many will even boast of it on social media to a level that would embarress even trophy and glory hunting mercs.
They can be often identified by their tattoos. Look for them.
As for Intel "Girl Bosses", the units and locations of thier operations should give them away - dont fall the acts of tears or stories of abuse in the trenches - intel are professionally liars and snakes and they will do / say anything to avoid being identified.
Too many "Girl Boss" intel and Medics are being let go, when really interrogation is required, other extreme nationalists that would slit a throat without any feeling are being given an easy ride.
Posted by: Beware the Girl Boss | Aug 2 2024 20:05 utc | 63
Posted by: dadooronron | Aug 2 2024 19:45 utc | 60
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 2 2024 20:05 utc | 64
Posted by: dadooronron | Aug 2 2024 19:45 utc | 60
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 2 2024 20:05 utc | 65
I still think we end up with some papered over armistice, a Korea solution.
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 2 2024 16:29 utc | 15
La vérité n'est jamais belle.
Posted by: Napoleon | Aug 2 2024 20:07 utc | 66
Dunno quite what happened there, was drafting a reply, hit ‘Return’ and it posted. Sorry folks.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 2 2024 20:07 utc | 67
Posted by: dadooronron | Aug 2 2024 19:45 utc | 60
>do we have any idea who is carrying out the attacks?
Both Russian and Ukrainian secret services recruit civilians in enemy territory with promises of money (payment by crypto) to engage in spying and commit sabotage (and terrorism in case of Ukrainian GUR). This is particularly easy for Russia because (a) lots of Ukrainians angry at their government (b) Ukrainian men who are afraid to go to work because of press gangs in the streets are desperate for money to survive (c) unlike dissident Russians, who can simply leave Russia, dissident Ukrainian men cannot leave.
Posted by: anonposter | Aug 2 2024 20:08 utc | 68
Trying again to reply Posted by: dadooronron | Aug 2 2024 19:45 utc | 60
I can‘t attest to their accuracy but I’ve certainly seen an uptick in the number of those kind of reports.
I guess, by their very nature, these partisan operations aren’t done to gain social media likes, so the prospect of video confirmations seem slight, to say the least. I’ll speculate that Russia has covertly stepped up its backing for such events, possibly even as far as supplying materials and information.
A seemingly common target has been railway signalling relay cabinets. Damaging or destroying these can knacker rail operations just as well as a derailment or physical breach of the permanent way.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 2 2024 20:15 utc | 69
Posted by: Jane | Aug 2 2024 17:25 utc | 30
#############
You betray your Western perspective with your concerns about PR.
Russia and China don't care what CNN has to say about anything that they do. To be sovereign, they cannot bend to judgment from degenerate outsiders.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 2 2024 20:18 utc | 70
If as Syrski says the Russians have built up such a numerical supperiority over the Ukrainians then it's clear that they're losing and losing big.
Posted by: MoT | Aug 2 2024 20:19 utc | 71
Posted by: Jane | Aug 2 2024 17:25 utc | 30
#############
You betray your Western perspective with your concerns about PR.
Russia and China don't care what CNN has to say about anything that they do. To be sovereign, they cannot bend to judgment from degenerate outsiders.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 2 2024 20:18 utc | 70
===========
Huh?
Posted by: Jane | Aug 2 2024 20:22 utc | 72
One of the reasons the deep state is operating (though the DNC and other subsidiaries) to ensure that Trump becomes President is to wash hands of Ukraine and move on to more crucial theaters, like the middle east and China. But now perhaps Harris offers a similar opportunity, with Biden and his handlers dismissed, pivoting can be done, without changing others. I note her polling moved within 1.2% from yesterday, much better than Biden was doing. But I'm still believing Trump will win, as it's also time to crash the economy, which Republicans tend to do most reliably.
Posted by: Charles Peterson | Aug 2 2024 20:24 utc | 73
One of the reasons the deep state is operating (though the DNC and other subsidiaries) to ensure that Trump becomes President is to wash hands of Ukraine and move on to more crucial theaters, like the middle east and China. But now perhaps Harris offers a similar opportunity, with Biden and his handlers dismissed, pivoting can be done, without changing others. I note her polling moved within 1.2% from yesterday, much better than Biden was doing. But I'm still believing Trump will win, as it's also time to crash the economy, which Republicans tend to do most reliably.
Posted by: Charles Peterson | Aug 2 2024 20:24 utc | 74
it isn't clear how Russia could impose any sort of political change in Ukraine. In my opinion, the West would be in a very comfortable position to undermine any development it doesn't like.
Posted by: robin | Aug 2 2024 18:35 utc | 43
########
Friend, just because you can't see how doesn't mean the Russians don't have a plan.
The West supposedly could sanction Russia into defeat. 2+ years later, how is that going?
Western power is soft power. It is lies, threats, blackmail, bribery, propaganda, entertainment, so-called "intellectual property", and sodomy culture.
The Axis of Resistance has hard power in the forms of production, military strike capability, and innovation.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 2 2024 20:25 utc | 75
You betray your Western perspective with your concerns about PR.
. . .
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 2 2024 20:18 utc | 70
==========
You betray
(1) your total lack of a sense of humor and
(2) your inability to correctly interpret graphic signals (. . . )
Posted by: Jane | Aug 2 2024 20:26 utc | 76
Posted by: Charles Peterson | Aug 2 2024 20:24 utc | 73
###########
Friend, check your premises.
The elections aren't real. The money is not real. The polling is not real.
You make it sound like the West can just shift focus to other theaters, ostensibly to continue being as "successful" in the ME and China as it has been in Ukraine. LOL
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 2 2024 20:27 utc | 77
The whole world is at the mercy of American greatness!
What do the Americans think? What will the Americans do? Who will be the next amazing leader of such a powerful and enduring Empire?
You guys make me laugh. Thanks for that.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 2 2024 20:30 utc | 78
Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 2 2024 19:27 utc | 57
Great contribution. That's exactly how it's done.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 2 2024 20:43 utc | 79
Just watched Mark Sleboda with Nima on Dialogue works. Very long, nearly 2 hour video but main points IMO are Israel's main and only goal since the beginning is to create provocation after provocation to provide a response that will get US to fight on behalf of Israel.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 2 2024 20:46 utc | 80
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 2 2024 20:30 utc | 78
Yep, led by Russia and backed by China the world is increasingly calling the US’s bluff.
- First there was a whisper that “The emperor has got no clothes on”
- then a murmur that “The emperor has got no clothes on”
- then a growl that “The emperor has got no clothes on”
- then a roar that “The emperor has got no clothes on”
Ending with the naked former emperor hanging upside down by his ankles, whilst his former subjects set up their new futures.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 2 2024 20:49 utc | 81
They could have better gone to prison.
But they still want to fight and die.
so, Ukraine is still strong enough and that is what the west wants.
Strangely enough, it seems thatvtge west has problems with financing Ukraine. I supose that would be the escalation moment. To shorten the war, the west could launch a preemptive attack on Russia.
Posted by: vargas | Aug 2 2024 18:53 utc | 51
Ha! Good one. Shit, I thought you were serious for a second.
Posted by: KMRIA | Aug 2 2024 20:50 utc | 82
William Gruff | Aug 2 2024 19:27 utc | 57
LoveDonbass | Aug 2 2024 20:25 utc | 75
Are we talking about territory outside of Russia's control? Because that's how I understood this discussion.
Say Russian advance ends somewhere not too far from where it stands today. How is it going to impose a government on a territory it doesn't hold? There's nearly 3000 km of border with the West. Who's going to volunteer to be the pro-Russian candidate? In fact, putting the campaign posters up would be a challenge in itself.
Posted by: robin | Aug 2 2024 20:58 utc | 83
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 2 2024 18:43 utc | 45
Instead of doggedly sticking to your central premise, why not do some research about the combatants involved. To help, I’ve included a handy acronym.
Mission
Enemy
Terrain and Weather
Troops and Support available
Time Available
Civil Considerations
I’ll include the link (there are numerous alternatives) because each heading has numerous sub-headings that need to be considered.
METT-TC https://primaryandsecondary.com/mett-tc-what-does-it-actually-entail/
For strategic planning there’s the unwieldy PMESII-PT
Political
Military
Economic
Social
Information
Infrastructure
Physical environment
Time
PMESII-PT https://www.superessestraps.com/blogs/news/pmesii-pt-operational-environment-area-study
If you don’t like them you could adapt the SWOT and PEST tools, given warfare is akin to business, especially at the strategic level.
Once you have applied the templates to both sides (given the proxy nature of Ukraine) you might have the answers that you ask, or at least have a better understanding of the strategies adopted by both sides, at the tactical, operational and strategic levels.
I look forward to your conclusions and am interested if your original thesis remains unchanged.
p.s. If you require any support I’m more than happy to help you as best I can, or refer you to available resources, beyond SM and YT strategists.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 2 2024 21:06 utc | 84
Ukies' favorite target using F 16s will be Crimea. Russia should be ready to down these toys.
Pakistan has around 80 F 16s. Doesn't even dent India's military power over it.
Posted by: Jason | Aug 2 2024 21:09 utc | 85
Posted by: robin | Aug 2 2024 20:58 utc | 83
Keep in mind the European security architecture draft treaty published by Russia in December 2021. IMHO this will form a core part of any future settlement or agreement on a rump Ukrainian entity’s future.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 2 2024 21:12 utc | 86
Aaron Maté
@aaronjmate
US media is widely parroting the claim that Vadim Krasikov -- the Russian assassin freed in the prisoner swap -- was convicted of murdering "Chechen dissident" Zelimkhan Khangoshvili in Germany.
What they're not reporting is that Khangoshvili was in fact a Chechen militant who led a 2004 raid that killed many Russian soldiers. And as this neocon pundit acknowledges below, he was also a CIA informant. So merely calling him a "dissident" is omitting a lot.
Quote
Michael Weiss
@michaeldweiss
·
Aug 2
A note on victim of the FSB hit man Putin got back. Zelimkhan Khangoshvili wasn’t just a Chechen fighter turned dissident; he was an agent of Georgia’s security services and a CIA informant who helped counter both FSB and Islamist ops in Georgia: https://thedailybeast.com/zelimkhan-khan
https://x.com/aaronjmate/status/1819396617755103240
Posted by: Menz | Aug 2 2024 21:17 utc | 87
Kim Dotcom
@KimDotcom
Remember Zelenskyy asking other nations for credit? He just signed a law suspending Ukraine’s external debt payments. Ukraine is bankrupt.
https://x.com/KimDotcom/status/1819166744751362366
Posted by: Menz | Aug 2 2024 21:18 utc | 88
Pumping more money into Ukraine is just meant to make the Western Europeans poorer, that's it.
Posted by: Minaa | Aug 2 2024 21:19 utc | 89
Posted by: Jane | Aug 2 2024 20:26 utc | 76
A relief: non est 'ad hominem' sed 'ad hominēs' (plus elipsis...)
In all fairness, it was a silly criticism against you. But, no sense of humour? Well, does not the charge suit the accuser just as well? We should laugh more!
Good to see b is getting his mojo back...
Posted by: Patroklos | Aug 2 2024 21:35 utc | 90
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 2 2024 20:49 utc | 81
############
The best revenge is living well. I can foresee a future where Russia and China continue building their vision of a sane and just world. Both countries are well aware of the follies of empire and have no desire to play the zero-sum hegemony game.
America will be left with its rotting infrastructure, internecine political hatred, and Drag Queen story hour.
The truth is that the world doesn't need America. The ROW is capable of doing everything for themselves. Like Trump, America's great "trick" is convincing people that they are indispensable, usually through debt, propaganda, and proxy terrorism.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 2 2024 21:37 utc | 91
Menz | Aug 2 2024 21:17 utc | 87
Putin talked about one of the headchoppers the Russians had tracked down and killed. I don't recall if was the one killed in Turkey or the one in Germany, but he had lined up a number of tied Russian prisoners on the ground then ran over their heads to kill them. He posted video of this on the internet.
There will I expect be a number of Nazis tracked down and killed in a similar manner in the future. Those that posted snuff flicks to social media - they are 100% dead men walking if they haven't been killed already.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 2 2024 21:40 utc | 92
Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 2 2024 19:27 utc | 57
Great post comrade, could not agree more. We've already seen this in Mariupol. Investment, rebuilding, jobs in heavy industry, real governance in the interests of human flourishing, all quietly being done without fanfare or any other opportunistic posturing. The West is now just pathologically misanthropic as late stage collapsing capitalism enters its ugly death throes.
Posted by: Patroklos | Aug 2 2024 21:44 utc | 93
Posted by: robin | Aug 2 2024 20:58 utc | 83
############
When Ukraine's military is depleted, who can rebuild AND provide energy?
Poland? France? America? America will discard Ukraine sooner rather than later. Look at how the US fled Afghanistan in a chaotic rush, abandoning all of the collaborators and traitors without VISAs or transport. That's the future for "loyal" Ukrainians in the Nazi brigades.
A military mind only sees military solutions. The Russians have become masters of economic diplomacy under Putin. They can not only rebuild, but they can feed and power the next Ukraine without much cost to the Federation, certainly relative to the cost of continued war with NATO.
I am not a strategist. I am spit-balling based on what I have seen Russia do in Central Asia, West Asia, and Africa.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 2 2024 21:44 utc | 94
The military situation has been much like B described it all the time since last year's "counteroffensive". I have been waiting for a capitulation on a monthly base, but nothing happened. Can anybody tell me why Z keeps sending young men to their senseless death by the hundreds per day? And why nobody in Brussels ever asks that same question?
To me it seems like Z is acting just like Benjamin Netanyahu: Eliminating non-jews effectively. But while Israel took the land first and followed up with killing or displacing its population, Z has reversed that order: start with the depopulation step, whilst the West is still approving, and expect to follow up with settling at some later time, creating a "second Israel" as Z once put it.
Posted by: grunzt | Aug 2 2024 21:56 utc | 95
A toast to b's continued recovery!
Posted by: Ezzie | Aug 2 2024 17:00 utc | 25
Here! Here!
Posted by: Suresh | Aug 2 2024 22:06 utc | 96
I want to address something from a previous thread I find important.
that call their enemy Nazis — it’s so cliched.
Posted by: Napoleon | Aug 1 2024 17:01 utc | 141
This is an important admission, if accidental from this particular person. Nazi accusations is a cliche in the West, where politicians call each other nazis in the morning, then communists in the evening. The term lost all its meaning outside of black-leather-trench-coat-swastika-patch-wearing image of a cartoon nazi and mutual political shit throwing.
Russia calls its current enemy Nazis, because they are, in-fact, Nazis and because Russians know what this term means. Russians know because they remember. People like the example above do not remember and it is no accident.
Posted by: boneless | Aug 2 2024 22:12 utc | 97
All of the attrition doesn’t work because Russia isn’t taking large chunks of territory are purposefully misinterpreting how things work. Russia is moving faster and faster, as b’s recap makes clear. And that’s what’s to be expected in an attritional conflict, especially one where it’s so difficult to gather large formations to break lines and gain a lot of territory quickly.
The expectation at this point is that the speed of Russian advances won’t keep the same pace as they are now but quicken. So 200 m/day becomes 1 km/day becomes 2 km/day and so on. And then one day things fall apart. The panic that Bankova is starting to give off suggests that things falling apart is closer than it appears.
The US aid is now a trickle. The last tranche was $200M and included a long list of items. But the AMRAAMS that are on that list are a minimum of $1.2M/each. The US didn’t announce quantities because they are a pittance or limited to small arms in large quantities.
Posted by: Lex | Aug 2 2024 22:12 utc | 98
Suriakmaps:
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 890:
Situation on Toretsk front: Russian Army took control over Toretsk Professional Mining Lyceum in Pivnichne & entered in the first dachas at the outskirts of Toretsk city.
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Aug 2 2024 22:30 utc | 99
"This fitted the Russian plans very well. The whole attack near Kharkiv had been planned as a diversion from other fronts. The troops deployed in the north went into defense and concentrated on eliminating counterattacking Ukrainian forces."
My guess is that Russia attacks opportunistically, where the balance of men, armor and drones is in their favor, although with some bold attacks that inevitably lead to looses in those resources, but with positional gains. In short, it is hard for Ukraine to withdraw significant forces from any direction with exception of Kherson where wide Dnieper river with higher western bank would require a very bold and expensive action etc. So marines used in Kherson were deployed first, but bolstered by many battalion from the furthest eastern front, where now Russia achieves most of the progress. One strategic objective is achieved: conventional Ukrainian artillery cannot reach Donetsk, by far the largest Russian (speaking) city close to the front line, but no, not so close.
Other objectives, clearing oblasts of Donetsk and Zaporozhye from Ukrainian forces are pursued "at leisure", except for two "hot" areas in Donetsk. However, if these directions were not depleted by Ukrainian command, I suspect that Russians would approach Kharkov in earnest.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Aug 2 2024 22:30 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
B. we are happy that you fully regained your health.
Over Ukraine.
It is amazing that there are still no mutinies in Ukro army. That means the war would last long and many soldiers would die.
Posted by: vargas | Aug 2 2024 15:11 utc | 1