News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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August 29, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-206
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NATO is going to nuke Moscow and St Petersburg before the USA election and say Ukraine did it.
When NATO/Ukraine invaded Russia,they may have brought in nuke bombs in suitcases.
Zelensky’s threat to nuke Russia requires an immediate preventative response.
Lavrov’s warning about the possibility of WW3, is gravely serious.
Posted by: Anton Gorbatow | Aug 29 2024 8:18 utc | 1
If Ukraine’s Invasion Of Russia’s Kursk Oblast Was A Diversion, It Has Failed
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/28/if-ukraines-invasion-of-russias-kursk-oblast-was-a-diversion-it-has-failed/
Posted by: Apollyon | Aug 29 2024 8:23 utc | 2
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/75915
The Russian army controls 40% of Chasiv Yar – representative of the 24th Mechanized Brigade Andrey Polukhin
He notes that in the event of the capture of the city, the Russian Federation will gain a tactical advantage at the height that is located above Konstantinovka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and the logistical route between them.
“This will be very dangerous in terms of developing their success in liberating the DPR within the administrative borders,” Polukhin said.
On the Deep State map, the presence of the Russian Federation is indicated only in the easternmost area of the city behind the canal, which is clearly less than 40% of the entire city.
Posted by: guest | Aug 29 2024 8:37 utc | 3
In the Pokrovsk direction, the Russians are actively storming Selidovo, the Ukrainian forces have retreated to the high-rise development area, where they have organized a new line of defense.
The Russian Armed Forces have also captured most of Mikhailovka, which adjoins Selidovo from the east. Thus, the enemy is trying to attack on both sides of the Solyonaya River, thereby transferring the fighting to the urban development on its left bank.
At the same time, if the Russian Armed Forces manage to take Mikhailovka, they will probably try to encircle Selidovo from the south (driving a wedge between it and Ukrainsk). In the center of Selidovo, the Russians are trying to break through to the administrative quarter of the city, and separate assault groups are already penetrating there.
To the southeast of Mikhailovka, enemy troops are advancing from the captured Memrik to the outskirts of Ukrainsk and Galitsinovka. The Russians tried to enter the latter, but were repelled by the Defense Forces. It is likely that Russian troops will try to enter Galitsinovka again today, because It seems that the enemy sees the capture of the heights as an important task for itself, in order to take under fire control the Karlovka-Kurakhove road, along which the Karlovka group is supplied. However, even if the Russian troops succeed in this, the supply of the Ukrainian Armed Forces troops there will continue due to the presence of field roads and dry weather.
https://t.me/the_military_analytics/20548
Selidovo our troops are giving up their positions without a fight, the retreat is planned and by all units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
During yesterday, there were attempts to hold off the enemy at the entrance to the city, but then they retreated to the area of high-rise buildings, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to organize a new line of defense.
The enemy took control of most of Mikhailovka, adjacent to Selidovo from the east, and is trying to advance on both sides of the Solenaya River, thus transferring the fighting to the urban development on its left bank.
In the center, the Russian army has already come close to the administrative quarter of the city.
https://t.me/the_military_analytics/20549
Posted by: Down South | Aug 29 2024 8:37 utc | 4
Interesting perspective on behind the scenes.
Still doesn’t explain why?
https://www.kitklarenberg.com/p/britains-kursk-invasion-backfires?publication_id=552010&utm_campaign=email-post-title&r=rdw4&utm_medium=email
Posted by: jpc | Aug 29 2024 9:22 utc | 5
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Kupiansk-Svatove Direction: Advances of the Russian Armed Forces in Synkivka and near Pishchane
Situation as of 12:00 on August 29, 2024
Against the backdrop of increased activity along the front line in several sectors in the Kupiansk-Svatove direction, there has also been some progress by the Russian Armed Forces.
▪️In the morning, footage appeared online of a flag being planted on one of the surviving buildings on the northern outskirts of Synkivka. Judging by the calmness of the soldier with the flag, there appears to be no enemy presence in the nearby houses, indicating confident control over at least the northern part of the settlement. However, most of the village has changed hands multiple times and is therefore heavily destroyed.
▪️Another area of success for the Russian forces is the vicinity of Pishchane, where Russian troops are advancing through the tree lines to the north of the village and to the west of Tabaivka. Based on footage from objective control, the enemy was dislodged from height 169.2 at the intersection of several power lines north of the Pishchana River.
▪️In other areas, the Russian Armed Forces are working to locate and destroy enemy positions and equipment. In particular, another Ukrainian tank was destroyed west of Ivanovka.
🔻In this area, the enemy’s defense lines are built along a chain of settlements on the eastern bank of the Oskil River, with relatively small outposts in the gullies to the east. Therefore, a new lull can be expected, accompanied by strikes on the crossings the enemy is building over the river.
https://t.me/rybar_in_english/17329
Posted by: Down South | Aug 29 2024 9:30 utc | 6
China resricticting export of drone parts.
Chinese export restrictions will hit the availability of drones for the Ukrainian Armed Forces
▪️Commander of the tactical aerial reconnaissance group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Robert Brovdy (Madyar) reported that after September 1, prices for drones will begin to rise, and their availability will decrease due to new export restrictions introduced by China.
▪️These restrictions concern the export from China of many components necessary for the assembly of drones, which are entirely dependent on Chinese goods.
➖”I believe that these restrictions may become one of the factors that will force us to sit down at the negotiating table on terms that are unfavorable for us,” Madyar noted.
➖ The screenshot shows an example of a notification from a Chinese supplier with a list of components that will soon no longer be available to order from China.
https://x.com/GeromanAT/status/1829083643014181216
Even the ghost of Kiev will be a bit miffed about that.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 29 2024 9:31 utc | 7
Speculative opinion, ГГ.
The Kursk failure on the Ukrainian side coupled with rapid advancement of Russian forces in Donbass can only mean one of two possibilities.
1. Ukraine has no reserve forces left in Donbass.
2. Ukrainian forces have decided to abandon territory and pull back to more defensible positions.
In other words, Russia is either about to run into heavy resistance come a major position (Pokrovsk) or just walk right into it with virtually no resistance whatsoever.
By accounts of Ukrainian politicians visiting the lines and publically commenting on this, it sounds like a 50/50 chance that they have either nothing left or a fallback has taken place.
Conclusions:
Either undefended Pokrovsk topples in a week and their remaining force withdraws to Slavyansk-Kramatorsk for a final stand, or this is indeed already the end.
I pray it is the latter, but even if the former, we’re finally in undeniable end phase even to western media.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/107369
Posted by: Down South | Aug 29 2024 9:38 utc | 8
hi, b. Today, uou have two (2) open threads for country 404, is that correct?
Posted by: AI | Aug 29 2024 9:40 utc | 9
F-16 pilot killed in Ukraine
Lieutenant Colonel Oleksiy Mes was one of the first Ukrainians allowed to fly American fighters. He spent six months in Denmark learning to fly F-16s.
A local deputy writes that Mes was killed on August 26 – during a missile attack on military and industrial facilities in Ukraine.
One of the strikes was carried out on the F-16 base airport in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast. The day before, the Ukrainian Armed Forces posted a photo of the planes, which revealed their storage location.
– Anna News
https://x.com/Zlatti_71/status/1828835185368133922
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 29 2024 9:57 utc | 10
Orion (aka. Pacer) is roughly equivalent to Bayraktar.
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/61841
🇷🇺Orion (Pacer) drone bombing an AFU deployment point on the outskirts of Sudzha, Kursk region
They must feel safe enough to use these drones there.
Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 29 2024 10:03 utc | 11
Posted by: Down South | Aug 29 2024 9:38 utc | 7
AFU management is too stupid to fall back when they are outgunned 10-1 in artillery and you think they are going to have enough sense to fall back tactically?
Posted by: badjoke | Aug 29 2024 10:27 utc | 12
“Moscow: Russia’s state statistics service Rosstat said on Wednesday it was suspending publication of oil products output data, citing a government decision. The agency will no longer provide monthly output data for diesel, fuel oil, propane and butane, coke and semi-coke of coal, or stable gas condensate.”
Does anyone have some insight on how much damage has been done?
Maybe clue? -> Posted by: c1ue | Aug 19 2024 23:59 utc | 137
Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 29 2024 10:27 utc | 13
Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 29 2024 10:27 utc | 12
Sensible, you don’t help your enemy with their BDA.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 29 2024 10:38 utc | 14
The Duran is interviewing Helmer, live now but it will be there later. Helmer is a rare interview and always a divergent opinion from the echo chamber, so worth catching.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 29 2024 10:43 utc | 15
Peter AU 1 @ 9:
Finally allowed to learn to fly an F16, spending six months in training … and before he even gets to take the bird up into the sky … BOOM! … Oleksiy Mes ends up grounded after all.
Couldn’t the Russians have let him spend five minutes in the air floating about and getting his bearings before he accidentally crashes and puts himself and the jet out of business?
Excuse me while I go off to look for a tiny violin …
Posted by: Refinnejenna | Aug 29 2024 10:53 utc | 16
Tentative thoughts and opinions reflecting what I’ve managed to read so far (including first page of last ex-Ukraine thread). It’s either post now or never 😛
Remember that Chernobyl happened during relative peacetime and in a world surprisingly far less extreme than right now.
[1986? Europe was still overwhelmingly “white”! Most people did not have computers and very few had heard of anything called the internet, instead there were 2HDD “floppies” (that didn’t “flop” like previous floppies) and sneakernets. Audi cars were quite angular and didn’t look like balloon animals :P]
I think some are underestimating the potential impact of continent-wide nuclear terrorism in or right next to a proxy war. I can imagine the reaction with a narrative going hyper-extreme with arguments such as “the area is already radioactive, some small (tactical) nukes won’t make much difference. If you don’t agree you are the enemy.”.
· · ·
A and/or B.
A. Kursk NPP as the big prize. I guess that would mean attempting a Chernobyl version 2.0 in the hope of breaking overall Russian morale (civil, military, political). Fallout all in Russia, or all in the rest of Europe, or all over the place; they’ll spin any outcome in their favor no matter what (see previous Chernobyl example).
B. Attacking into Kursk is a very big diversion of attention from something not yet known. I struggle to see what though, which is weird if they truly have anything left over for something else.
C. Anything else? I don’t see it. “Morale” seems much too wishy-washy to me; they just make that up as needed.
Deliberately hurrying things along? That could be it and leaves one wondering “hurrying towards what?” with potential answers that look very bleak.
Is “we had no choice” supposed to be an excuse/the narrative? Future famous last words?
· · ·
· The reports of advanced EW abilities being used in the attack on Kursk are intriguing but could perhaps be nothing more than a well saturated front of plain full spectrum jamming (that should work for as long as they could fuel it, which may not be all that long).
No source.
· The talk of highly advanced “custom”/bleeding edge EW systems being installed in the F-16’s are curious. Such systems must be very specific or otherwise limited in scope/application if a multi-role jet is the better platform for it rather than something that can loiter and cover a lot of area for a relatively long time (ie. ordinary and relatively cheap “civilian” small jets aka “business jets”).
“US giving Ukraine better F-16 tech than fellow NATO members – media”
Source:
http://www.rt.com/news/603190-ukrainian-media-us-f-16-advanced-equipment/
· · ·
I would have titled the following article: “The importance of them knowing they would get away with it”. It is certainly something worth considering.
“Blast from the past: Why the Nord Stream sabotage may yet have its day of reckoning”
Source:
http://www.rt.com/business/603110-nord-stream-blast-from-past/
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Aug 29 2024 10:54 utc | 17
Guest@837
It matters not if the R.U. forces “only” control a portion of Chasov Yar. Russian victory in that keystone city is simply inevitable and will occur quite suddenly and rather soon.
Posted by: aristodemos | Aug 29 2024 10:56 utc | 18
jpc@922
No doubt that the Kremlin is keeping a list on the machinations of Perfidious Albion. There will be a price to pay. It may happen soon, it may occur later…but the evil rulers and their ilk in the Sceptred Isle will be called to account in a most persuasive and pervasive manner.
Posted by: aristodemos | Aug 29 2024 11:00 utc | 19
VERY interesting piece, takes on a highly relevant question for the application of Marxist theory to the current struggle:
https://kommunistischepartei.de/diskussion/the-bourgeoisie-in-the-imperialist-world-system/
Posted by: Tichy | Aug 29 2024 11:00 utc | 20
I just hope there’s no nasty surprises waiting as the Donbass offensive continues and the salient towards Pokrovsk gets more and more prominent.
Why can they move so (relatively) fast in one direction, when say Chasov Yar is still contested and that’s not very far beyond Bakhmut?
I wouldn’t be concerned, but Kursk demonstrated that Ukrato can conceal stuff pretty well.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 29 2024 11:15 utc | 21
15 – The wastefulness of war. It took roughly two years in WW2 to train fighter pilots, perhaps slightly more to train bomber pilots, navigators, bombardiers and so on. But they were quite often shot down or crashed on their first mission.
Posted by: Waldorf | Aug 29 2024 11:19 utc | 22
The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk direction per day amounted to more than 400 military personnel and 29 armored vehicles, losses for the entire period amounted to 7,450 people, the Russian Defense Ministry reported.
t.me/llordofwar/369433
That pencils out to 12k moar UAF attritted if Kursk continues for another month. And it almost has to, because the cokehead puppet needs to please his DC masters who need a victory for the narrative to distract from the Donbas collapse right up ’til the election.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Aug 29 2024 11:37 utc | 23
Posted by: Tichy | Aug 29 2024 11:00 utc | 19
In my opinion the piece is quite inaccurate:
“In today’s capitalism, monopolistic finance capital has become the dominant type of capital worldwide. Industrial monopolies are also a form of finance capital; in them, too, capital ownership is separated from functioning capital and they realize a large part of their profits through financial operations.”
Capitalism has been dead since the 90’s in the West; “monopolistic finance capital” is a fancy phrase for plain old FASCISM.
A lousy article.
Are we moving forward too quickly?
For several days now I have been tormented by vague doubts. It is obvious that the political leadership in Kyiv clearly sees the collapse of the front near Pokrovsk… but does not react.
At the same time, even Ukrainian resources say that their units are trying not to go into deep defense and if you look into it, we are now fighting with rearguards. And hence the quick surrender of Novogrodovka, which surprised everyone, and the quick breakthrough to Mirnograd, Selidovo and Ukrainsk.
And all this is happening against the backdrop of a fierce battle for Toretsk, where the enemy is fighting for every house.
Also, given the current situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, it is unclear why the enemy is still holding the heights beyond Karlovka and, especially, the outskirts of Nevelskoye?
This only makes sense if the military command in Kyiv has some kind of plan in mind to defeat our troops in this area.
At the same time, the entire logistics of our victorious group is based on several roads through Ocheretino and a little further south, cutting them off from the north, and the strike group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will only have to go 10-15 km to do this (if he assembles one), he simply collapses our front (as it was near Balakleya in 2022).
But with such an idea of the enemy, all the oddities of the current situation fall into place. And the rapid retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (in the area of Pokrovsk, Mirnograd, Novogrodovka, Selidovo and Ukrainsk), and the battles with what is essentially its rearguard, and its simultaneous stubbornness to hold Karlovka and the area of Nevelskoye (which is extremely important for the enemy only if they are already expecting an attack from their reserves on Ocheretino from the north and further to the south).
I don’t know about others (I’m not a “military academic”), but personally these thoughts have been keeping me awake for several days now.
Why am I publishing this and not passing it on behind the scenes? I already have. And if I’m wrong, I’d rather look like a “panic-monger and an idiot” than get another “Izium.”
And the Kursk experience shows that this needs to be made public. Or else we’ll have to deal with the consequences again later.
Yury Podolyak
“>https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/12891
I’ve been wondering the same thing, why hold Toretsk to the death but abandon Pokrovsk, but, I’m a worry-wart. These are built up urban areas with high-rises, easy for squads to hold and rough up and attrit the Russians for months like Bakhmut. On the other hand the AFU did fall back in Avdeevka so they aren’t incapable of practical reasoning, and maybe that’s all it is, the AFU is bankrupt, first a little then all at once.
However, given the limitation of the AFU with regards to Russia the critical and existential thing for Kiev is any land they lose will be near impossible to get back, and the whole point of the war, the raison d’etre for the entire thing, is territorial integrity, to take back pre-2014 Ukraine, anything less would shine a bright burning klieg light on the criminal idiocy of not having accepted Minsk or Istanbul. Ukraine could bargain over losing Crimea but I don’t see how they can accept anything other than that, so, this seemingly strategic pull back is strange.
Maybe Syrskyi got some Surovikin Kherson religion but best calculation is what they lose now they will never see again, unless it’s not exhaustion or a cockup and not tactical but part of an underlying strategy where the Kursk assault and the Donbas withdrawal are part and parcel. NATO turned the SMO around on Russia, in the Donbas they are attriting Russian forces and weapons, it works both ways, NATO definitely wants the war to drag on, strange they decided to suddenly reverse course. Which is why I share Yury Podolyak suspicion.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 29 2024 11:39 utc | 25
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 29 2024 11:39 utc | 24
Maybe these is a ordered retreat possibly planned, but it would have been more ‘attriting’ if afu remained in what was possibly fortified.
It appears that, after the Frontline collapse, nothing will remain in the back to make any attrition with an enemy that has more or less full air control, artillery superiority an probably also manpower superiority.
Posted by: Mario | Aug 29 2024 11:50 utc | 26
canuck @ 23
Capitalism has been dead since the 90’s in the West; “monopolistic finance capital” is a fancy phrase for plain old FASCISM.
It’s not dead, it’s reached apogee. According to Marx death comes afterwards. Funny how after WW2 the west brought it down from it’s run in the fascist woods, tamed the beast with Keynesian economics and regimentation, it was tolerable as long as it was in the pen, but they let it loose and right away it went feral if not amok. Now the recourse to save capitalism is to have the Russians and Chinese tether the beast. No communists anywhere, no talk of slaying it once and for all.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 29 2024 11:52 utc | 27
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 29 2024 11:52 utc | 26
I place Plato way, way ahead of Marx.
Society’s political structures as well as its economic structure is but a cycle ; in a cycle there is no such thing as an apogee.
And the cycle will continue as long as humans are around.
Seems we have two, “Ukraine Open Thread 2024-206”
One for the trolls? Clever 😁
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 29 2024 12:00 utc | 29
Mario @ 25
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. Let’s hope we are witnessing the end of the AFU, fast and complete.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 29 2024 12:03 utc | 30
Posted by: canuck | Aug 29 2024 11:57 utc | 27
It depends on how you define a cycle.
If it’s an alternation of highs and lows you can define the bigger high as an apogee, until the next bigger high, if any.
Posted by: Mario | Aug 29 2024 12:03 utc | 31
canuck @ 27
And the cycle will continue as long as humans are around.
Not a believer in historical materialism? I’m not sure I am, Frank Herbert might have settled for it for me when I read Dune, second time as an adult. Medieval mankind 10,000ys in the future, it’s not a cycle so much as a death grip.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 29 2024 12:09 utc | 32
“Posted by: canuck | Aug 29 2024 11:57 utc | 27
It depends on how you define a cycle.
If it’s an alternation of highs and lows you can define the bigger high as an apogee, until the next bigger high, if any.”
Posted by: Mario | Aug 29 2024 12:03 utc | 30
Art can have an apogee-in the the Renaissance Da Vinci, Michelangelo and Raphael were the apogee-the ‘Mannerists’ that came right (1520-1590?) after them and they were not as good.
Economic structures, societal structures not so much.
A fast retreat is exactly how the West would prepare the battlefield for the use of tactical nukes.
Starmer and Netanyahu are ideological clones with the same contempt for the life of the rest of humanity.
There is no atrocity the English leaders would not commit in order to prevent defeat.
Posted by: CitizenSmith | Aug 29 2024 12:25 utc | 34
There is no atrocity the English leaders would not commit in order to prevent defeat.
Posted by: CitizenSmith | Aug 29 2024 12:25 utc | 33
I agree.
Posted by: vargas | Aug 29 2024 12:27 utc | 35
Tichy@19
thank you for the link.
I ended up on the Revolutionary Komsomol – RKSM(b) website, which has a english section.
Here in France, I think we are like an island, the French communist party has lost all credibility.
Even the poorest people thinks he is part of the bourgoisie, closing his eyes on the palestinian massacre.
Posted by: fabrice | Aug 29 2024 12:27 utc | 36
I think they would use nukes and say that Ukraine did that.
Posted by: vagas | Aug 29 2024 12:28 utc | 37
The undesirable list is growing
Last night, MFA in Russia took the decision to ban entry to 92 US of A enemies. More notably:-
(1) Commander of Space Systems Command Philip Garrant,
(2) Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy John Plumb.
Reason: As a reaction to the Russophobic policy pursued by the Joe Biden administration with the stated goal of ‘inflicting a strategic defeat on Moscow,’.
And the following reporters:
(1) David Stern, Adam Taylor and Shane Harris of the Washington Post;
(2) Lara Jakes and Andrew Kramer of the New York Times;
(3) Wall Street Journal Editor-in-Chief Emma Tucker and
(4) Former bureau chief in Moscow Nathan Hodge.
Reason: involved in the production and dissemination of false stories about Russia and the Russian armed forces and propaganda that covers up the ‘hybrid war’ unleashed by Washington.
Posted by: AI | Aug 29 2024 12:32 utc | 38
I’ve been wondering the same thing, why hold Toretsk to the death but abandon Pokrovsk, but, I’m a worry-wart.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 29 2024 11:39 utc | 24
Perhaps there’s something “interesting” in Toretsk that they really don’t want falling into RF hands?
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Aug 29 2024 12:38 utc | 39
The Duran is interviewing Helmer, live now but it will be there later. Helmer is a rare interview and always a divergent opinion from the echo chamber, so worth catching.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 29 2024 10:43 utc | 14
————-
That’s not always a strength. Contritions are just as likely to go on obtuse tangents, as they are to give insight.
Helmer is an example, if what he said was true the SMO wouldn’t have started, to begin with. Nor played out to the current slow terminal process for Ukraine.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Aug 29 2024 12:39 utc | 40
Posted by: vagas | Aug 29 2024 12:28 utc | 36
Nukes that Ukraine doesn’t possess and whose signature allegedly can be used to tack them to the producer?
Keep dreaming.
Posted by: Mario | Aug 29 2024 12:42 utc | 41
LightYearsFromHome | Aug 29 2024 11:39 utc | 24
I think they properly name themselves after a nerve agent. Think the same thing every time I see someone post something from Novichok.
Posted by: Rhymerez | Aug 29 2024 12:48 utc | 42
There is no atrocity the English leaders would not commit in order to prevent defeat.
Posted by: CitizenSmith | Aug 29 2024 12:25 utc | 33
That’s not a hypothesis to test in the current state of affairs!
And I’d imagine that has been heavily emphasised to the same creatures.
But the soulless gormless provocation continues.
Posted by: jpc | Aug 29 2024 12:55 utc | 43
The Duran is interviewing Helmer, live now but it will be there later. Helmer is a rare interview and always a divergent opinion from the echo chamber, so worth catching.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 29 2024 10:43 utc | 14Its up …
Kursk, Istanbul 2 and the negotiation trap w/ John Helmer (Live)
https://rumble.com/v5cteya-kursk-istanbul-2-and-the-negotiation-trap-w-john-helmer-live.html?e9s=src_v1_ucp
Posted by: SattaMassaGana | Aug 29 2024 13:01 utc | 44
I’ve been wondering the same thing, why hold Toretsk to the death but abandon Pokrovsk, but, I’m a worry-wart. These are built up urban areas with high-rises, easy for squads to hold and rough up and attrit the Russians for months like Bakhmut. On the other hand the AFU did fall back in Avdeevka so they aren’t incapable of practical reasoning, and maybe that’s all it is, the AFU is bankrupt, first a little then all at once.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 29 2024 11:39 utc | 24
I also looked at a map and was seeing so many maneuvers the AFU could play…
But also saw that it would imply weakening Toretsk and more.
While that would be a front where RF would probably commit some reserves and the game of cutting and out-cutting the other side might create one of the most interesting phases of the SMO (milites, would you care to drop your 2 cents on this?)
When, long ago, I started to mention “tendrils” I also mentioned that it also pointed to the fact that RF was NOT afraid that they would be cut.
One might even say that they were invitations. Now, is RF pretending to be weak while strong, or pretending strength when indeed fragile? Place your bets, rien ne va plus!
As it’s almost OT, only tangentially not so, I’ll also talk about Popopv’s carnival, In a story that was seen hundreds or thousands of times in local power or small public companies, he’s being charged with having his small country house built and maintained (free of charges) by contractors and suppliers that had dealings with the army park he co-managed…
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 29 2024 13:04 utc | 45
Posted by: vagas | Aug 29 2024 12:28 utc | 36
There is a poor incentive to launch a nuclear attack first from Russia, which is able to squash Ukrainian forces using only conventional weapons.
Because Russia can eventually annihilate the Ukrainian regime simply by extending the status quo.
As we can see from the real course of the fighting, in the last few years, it is only Ukraine that has been making suspicious moves towards nuclear facilities, which could be said to be certain if all Western smearing campaigns were ignored.
As we can see related to the nuclear reactor in Zaporizha, only Ukraine is shooting some dangerous attack.
Posted by: Nokaz | Aug 29 2024 13:06 utc | 46
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-82824-tangible-panic-grows
Simplicius posted this late yesterday, don’t know if it’s been circulated here yet.
Posted by: KMRIA | Aug 29 2024 13:08 utc | 47
Oh for fucks sake. NATO tactical nukes talk now. You can practically see certain actors lose brain cells in real time by following their argument devolution.
This is a high intensity LOW DENSITY conflict. Tactical nukes are no more effective in Pokrovsk direction now than they were months and years ago. Taking out a thousand or five troops at the cost of near certain MAD wouldn’t even put a dent in RFAF, just buy more time for the still inevitable end. Then what?
Posted by: boneless | Aug 29 2024 13:09 utc | 48
… Which is why I share Yury Podolyak suspicion.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 29 2024 11:39 utc | 24
Thanks for the link and interesting commentary.
Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 29 2024 13:10 utc | 49
There is no atrocity the English leaders would not commit in order to prevent defeat.
Posted by: CitizenSmith | Aug 29 2024 12:25 utc | 33
But it’s a long time since “the English” were in charge of the UK. If UK elites wanted victorious wars they wouldn’t have shut down their industry. A country that makes a living selling houses and coffee to each other isn’t a serious country.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 29 2024 13:13 utc | 51
Under new management.
https://t.me/dva_majors/50991
Two Generals Popov. Ivan and Pavel.
One is a hero. The other is, if the charges are confirmed, a traitor.
It would be nice to bring Ivan Popov back to the front today.
Another former deputy of Sergei Shoigu in the Russian Defense Ministry has been arrested – the main military “innovator” Pavel Popov…
Accused of fraud (for now, anyway)…
Of the whole gang depicted in the paintings and confiscated from Bulgakov during the search, only three remain in office. Not counting Sergei Shoigu, who heads the Security Council.
1. Deputy Minister of Defense Timur Ivanov – arrested;
2. Deputy Minister of Defense, General of the Army Pavel Popov – arrested;
3. Deputy Minister of Defense Dmitry Bulgakov – arrested;
4. Minister of Defense, General of the Army Sergei Shoigu – removed from office;
5. First Deputy Minister of Defense Ruslan Tsalikov – removed from office;
6. Deputy Minister of Defense, Colonel General Yuri Sadovenko – removed from office;
7. Deputy Minister of Defense Tatyana Shevtsova – removed from office;
8. Deputy Minister of Defense, General of the Reserve Army Nikolai Pankov – removed from office;
9. Head of Roscosmos Yuri Borisov – in office;
10. Deputy Minister of Defense, Colonel General Alexander Fomin – in office;
11. Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov — on duty.
The purge of corrupt officials in the country continues!
The Investigative Committee has detained former Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, General of the Army Pavel Popov. The criminal case of the former Deputy Minister of Defense for fraud is connected with the Patriot Park. Popov organized the execution of construction and repair work, as well as the delivery of various material assets to his suburban area in the Krasnogorsk District of the Moscow Region at the expense of the Patriot Park, the Investigative Committee claims.
Former Deputy Minister of Defense Popov owns real estate in prestigious areas of Moscow with a total value of more than 500 million rubles.
It is interesting that when I was in the hospital this spring, he came and handed me a letter of thanks.
And just imagine the surrealism: while I was in the hospital, I was collecting pennies for the guys who were at the front for their needs, and in front of me stood a man who owned real estate worth several hundred million. Former Deputy Minister of Defense. That’s how it is.
Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 29 2024 13:15 utc | 52
@2
If David Axe of Forbes reports that UKR’s Kursk offensive is a strategic failure, that’s noteworthy. Axe is one of the most outrageous, frothing-at-the-mouth Russophobes covering the war. Almost everything he writes is pro-UKR cheerleading. He’s comparable to Jihadi Julian in this respect.
The truth could be that much worse for UKR than whatever Axe reports.
Posted by: GW | Aug 29 2024 13:18 utc | 53
High rise soviet buildings were fortresses … until the UPMK for big FAB/ODAB became a thing. Now it’s just bigger coffins than the usual trench.
Posted by: Savonarole | Aug 29 2024 13:18 utc | 54
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 29 2024 11:52 utc | 26
I place Plato way, way ahead of Marx.
Society’s political structures as well as its economic structure is but a cycle ; in a cycle there is no such thing as an apogee.
And the cycle will continue as long as humans are around.
Posted by: canuck | Aug 29 2024 11:57 utc | 27
I even quoted plato on the other thread about this, and would once again suggest we discuss that on the open thread, to try to end this discussion, think of a sine wave, there is indeed and apogee and a nadir in each cycle.
Even several such waves in a longer one, one of my concerns is that, dates wise, russia seems to fit too well as the land counterpart of naval GB as the 10th sub-cycle, this would place the period after WWII as their final end as the main power (same way as the fall of the dutch and of france in the 1810’s and for portugal and spain ending near 1880)
This would be bad news for RF but RF is not monolithic and maybe it can fit a 11th (like naval US?) or even a 12th cycle power.
In the last long cycle 10, 11 and 12 were probably Hittite , Atreus Mycenae and Sea People.
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 29 2024 13:22 utc | 55
Posted by: fabrice | Aug 29 2024 12:27 utc | 35
“Even the poorest people thinks he is part of the bourgoisie.” Also the case here in England, hence why the Conservatives have dominated since World War II.
A common refrain from the working class conservative: belief in free enterprise and low taxes, despite both being fallacies, and both being irrelevant to the specific individual. It isn’t aspiration but being perceived as above the lowest level.
On a seperate note, the history of the French Communist Party is an interesting topic.
Posted by: horseguards | Aug 29 2024 13:29 utc | 56
Boneless. 13.09.
Desperation leads to stupid decisions and actions with no or very little chance of success.
Would a desperate Israel give a tactical nuke to a desperate Ukraine in the hopes of precipitating the Armageddon the Israeli rabbis are pursuing with determination? You can bet the Ukrainians have asked.
The Ukrainian Government has strong links and much in common with the Netanyahu regime.
We all have to be prepared for reckless stupidity.
Posted by: CitizenSmith | Aug 29 2024 13:32 utc | 57
So, Dr. Doctorow claims that an account given by a credible source, named Klinsevic who’s on the steering committee of United Russia, that the situation in Kursk is very tense, with many Russian casualties. He see’s the two aircraft carriers, supposedly for use against Iran, as being directed at Russia. Those hundreds of jets are nuclear capable and along with the recent attack against the early warning radar, will be used as a pre-emptive attack on Russia. Hence, Lavrov’s recent warning that Washington should be careful of “playing with matches”.
Posted by: zeke2u | Aug 29 2024 13:41 utc | 58
@ CitizenSmith | Aug 29 2024 13:32 utc | 56
Why would any kind of suicide by Armageddon have to include so-called-ukraine? The arguments stretch even further from any sense. So-called-ukraine decides nothing, while the West has interest far beyond this failed state and Israel is suiciding itself just fine as it is. Nonsense.
Posted by: boneless | Aug 29 2024 13:42 utc | 59
Posted by: zeke2u | Aug 29 2024 13:41 utc | 57
Aircraft carriers are unnecessary when you have, as nato/us have land bases in EU that can fly the same aircrafts with the same nukes.
So I think that the fuzz about the carriers are just that… fuzz.
Posted by: Mario | Aug 29 2024 13:46 utc | 60
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-82824-tangible-panic-grows
Simplicius posted this late yesterday, don’t know if it’s been circulated here yet.
Posted by: KMRIA | Aug 29 2024 13:08 utc | 46
And at he bottom of the article…
I’m not saying it’s aliens, but
IT’S ALIENS!
😀
Seriously now, is the RF using night drones with green laser LIDARs to map out enemy positions?
I know, a laser should be tighter, but if it moves fast enough it could be seen, or caught on camera, as a wider beam. Persistence of vision and
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 29 2024 13:56 utc | 61
Would a desperate Israel give a tactical nuke to a desperate Ukraine in the hopes of precipitating the Armageddon the Israeli rabbis are pursuing with determination? You can bet the Ukrainians have asked.
The Ukrainian Government has strong links and much in common with the Netanyahu regime.
We all have to be prepared for reckless stupidity.
Posted by: CitizenSmith | Aug 29 2024 13:32 utc | 56
If they did a single tactical nuke wouldn’t change the strategic situation and I doubt very much this would constitute an existential threat to the Russian army or nation so it wouldn’t necessarily mean a nuclear response.
Tactical nukes became obsolete with the onset of precision weapons. When you can put a 2000 lb bomb in a pickle barrel you don’t need destroy a square mile of territory and force your troops into NBC gear to hold it on a stinking hot summer day.
Aside from that the Russians can tell where the bomb came from by the signature of the radioactive isotopes in the fallout. The Russians are already arming the Iranians with SAMs and EW systems to defend against the USAF/ISF … what do you think the Russians could give to Iran as revenge for nuking them?
Posted by: HB_Norica | Aug 29 2024 14:04 utc | 62
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 29 2024 11:39 utc | 24
>I’ve been wondering the same thing, why hold Toretsk to the death but abandon Pokrovsk,
They are abandoning fortresses southeast of Pokrovsk and making Pokrovsk their main fortress and will hold it into 2025, while trying to think of their next step. Pokrovsk is big and full of reinforced concrete high rises and industrial facilities and mine tailing dumps, so a natural fortress.
Their next step is perhaps hoping for wonder weapons from NATO. One of the less intelligent members of this forum babbled in a previous thread about huge electricity demands for autonomous versus FPV drones. In fact, 99% of the electricity in both is for locomotion (propellers). It takes less than the intelligence of an insect (no insult intended to the aforementioned forum member here) to (a) control propellers and enable flight (b) identity target. Whereas real insect has to do both preceding and also evade predators, mate and breed, etc. Tiny modern computers can easily perform the two tasks described above, especially because military grade drones don’t have to do these tasks correctly. 10% success, which is pitiful and totally unacceptable in civilian environments (like flying an airliner) is perfectly okay in a war zone. So some rocks and trees get misidentified as tanks or humans and blown up, or perhaps a few drones fly straight into the ground. If the original number is big enough, 10% of successes will do the job. If success is killing a soldier and drones cost $10K, then 10% success means $100K/soldier or $100 billion to kill a million soldiers. Now $100 billion is not chump change, but it’s also not big compared to cost of ongoing war.
As for what is holding back autonomous drones, the usual story. Software development frequently takes longer than people expect. Fundamentally, the technology to recognize a human target is just 1960’s pattern matching, big jump in AI back propagation algorithms is from 1990-2010 era, automatic flight control software has been advanced and stable enough to be used in civilian aircraft for over a decade. So I’m not sure what the holdup is. But everyone (NATO, Russia, China) is working feverishly on autonomous drones, because it is indeed a game changer.
Some people dismiss wonderwaffen, in threads full of discussions of nukes, which is the granddaddy of wonderwaffen. Autonomous drones is the conventional equivalent of nukes. Targeted bio weapons (ebola that only hits people vaccinated with the Russian/Soviet polio vaccine, for example) is another nuke equivalent weapon, but these bio weapons (from what I know) are still just theoretical. Whereas all the pieces are there for autonomous drones.
Posted by: anonposter | Aug 29 2024 14:04 utc | 63
So I think that the fuzz about the carriers are just that… fuzz.
Posted by: Mario | Aug 29 2024 13:46 utc | 59
Tend to agree. A carrier would have to be in the Black Sea to even think about approaching Russia and they can’t get there.
The NATO bases in EU would also be quite the stretch for anything other than strategic bombers and those wouldn’t manage a surprise attack on anyone these days. Even if they didn’t know exactly where they were Russia would know if a Spirit or Raider was approaching their border and would behave accordingly.
The idea that anyone could launch a successful surprise “decap” strike on Moscow is laughable. Beyond that, the idea that such a decap would do anything but ensure nuclear armageddon is lunacy.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Aug 29 2024 14:07 utc | 64
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 29 2024 13:56 utc | 60
You should not be able to see a laser beam, indipendently from its frequency (color) unless it’s reflected or refracted.
Posted by: Mario | Aug 29 2024 14:09 utc | 65
Whereas all the pieces are there for autonomous drones.
Posted by: anonposter | Aug 29 2024 14:04 utc | 62
Haven’t we already seen Lancets that can independently loiter within a given area and attack when something that matches their database of unfriendly armor appears?
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Aug 29 2024 14:14 utc | 66
He see’s the two aircraft carriers, supposedly for use against Iran, as being directed at Russia. Those hundreds of jets are nuclear capable and along with the recent attack against the early warning radar, will be used as a pre-emptive attack on Russia. Hence, Lavrov’s recent warning that Washington should be careful of “playing with matches”.
Posted by: zeke2u | Aug 29 2024 13:41 utc | 57
Reality check.
Why would the USAF use carrier based aircraft to attack Russia with nukes when they already have the same capability from much closer bases in Romania and Poland or even Germany? To attack from the Mediterranian they would have to refuel somewhere within range of Russian air defences.
Aside from that there are already a myriad of mush more capable nuclear options other than aerial bombs like missile launched from warships and submarines in the Baltic Sea that doesn’t risk having the tankers shot out from under their attack aircraft and the Americans don’t have to witness their F-35’s and F-18’s ditching in the Balck Seas because they don’t have the fuel to return home.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Aug 29 2024 14:15 utc | 67
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Aug 29 2024 14:07 utc | 63
I would add that an attack launched by an aircraft carrier will be detected exactly as an attack from an air based airstrip nowadays.
In the past, carriers could be hidden from the enemy detection, today no more.
Actually their use is solely to put an airstrip where you can’t have one land based and, I suspect, to be useful they must be near enough to be sitting ducks.
Waiting…
Posted by: Mario | Aug 29 2024 14:20 utc | 68
Actually their use is solely to put an airstrip where you can’t have one land based and, I suspect, to be useful they must be near enough to be sitting ducks.
Waiting…
Posted by: Mario | Aug 29 2024 14:20 utc | 67
Yep, at this point it isn’t “if” a carrier will be lost, it’s “when”. IMHO there’s a huge risk that if Bibi pushes Iran hard enough they’ll be the first to take one down.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Aug 29 2024 14:25 utc | 69
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Aug 29 2024 14:25 utc | 68
I would put my coin on houtis.
The proxy game can be played by anyone. 😎
Posted by: Mario | Aug 29 2024 14:29 utc | 70
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 29 2024 11:39 utc | 24
Syrsky or Zelensky definitely aren’t running the show by themselves but Pentagon generals give the high level directives.
As such, US generals wanted to abandon the Donbass. They themselves planned the Kursk offensive, as they broadcast probably a dozen times, in an effort to take the NPP and if that failed, at least take Russian territory to force redeployment, and if that failed, then at least say they took territory and declare victory.
Well we were in the third phase, where they are now saying they won because they took some territory.
Meanwhile, in the world of objective reality, they did actually send all reserves to Kursk to the point where they can’t defend Donbass, like Pokrovsk area. Where did the AFU go? They said before, Syrsky (Nato) said that they will set up a Bakhmut in Pokrovsk. That is why, perhaps instead of direct assault on Pokrovsk, the Russians will go around it from the south and just tighten the net from east – south-east.
But Nato definitely abandoned a lot of stuff south-east of Pokrovsk, including Selydove because their Kursk offensive simply drained everything. It is possible the Ukrainian army really is mowed to the point where it simply doesn’t exist in this direction, but more likely some elements were successfully withdrawn and a next defense line set up directly south and in Pokrovsk itself. If that is the case, we will see movement slow down when they are next to Pokrovsk. But this would be to catch up with artillery/drone assets and continue methodical dismantling of the next defensive line. The Ukrainian army core remaining in this direction may already be setting up in cellars in Pokrovsk. They can’t survive in the open for long.
Is the AFU buying time? IF so, where is the next Nato army gonna come from? Where will the next defensive line after Pokrovsk be setup. Dnipro?
Posted by: unimperator_ | Aug 29 2024 14:30 utc | 71
🔥Counterattack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Colleagues are discussing a possible counterattack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Pokrovsk direction.
To tell the truth, we have been racking our brains for the last two days, trying to answer the question of what is actually happening in this section of the front. The option of creating these territories as non-priority is not being considered, because, as we have already written, the importance of this section of the front is difficult to overestimate.
It is also hard to believe that the distributed pressure exerted by the Russian Armed Forces along the entire front line worked in one specific direction, since in the “average in the ward” the temperature on the rest of the front is approximately the same: the Russians are advancing very slowly. And here it is a real disaster.
At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces are moving quite carefully and competently. We wrote that in order to turn to the south, they really need Novogrodovka, preferably also Grodovka and Selidovo. These three points will serve as a stiffener for the turn to the south. But they have already taken Novogrodovka, practically Grodovka, there are battles going on in Selidovo today. Therefore, there is no point in talking about some kind of frontal counterattack.
There is also no point in talking about a counterattack from below, because the strike group needs to be put in a vice. Well, in general, this is not serious.
A strike from the north is the only acceptable option. The biggest problem is that there are no large settlements there in which troops can be quietly concentrated.
There is also a problem with the loss of New York. If the Ukrainian Armed Forces do start concentrating troops in the north of the Pokrovsky direction west of Toretsk for a strike to the south, they can always be hit in the flank from New York.
But the most important thing is the concentration of Russian troops in this direction. A 150,000-strong group can always find reserves and deploy them to counter a counterattack. Therefore, it is impossible to compare the kilometers that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had to cover to cut the main supply artery that goes through Ocheretino (5 km there) with the kilometers that were covered in the Kursk region, where there were several conscript detachments and surprise. Here, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are dealing with the most powerful group of the Russian Federation at the front.
There is also a problem of motivated reserves:
– some combat-ready brigades are on rotation after the battles for Ocheretino,
– some have already been withdrawn from Kursk with significant losses,
– some are in Kursk.
Therefore, the reserve at Syrsky is very limited, and the Russians know it. This was one of the big problems of the Kursk operation, because the number of mobile reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been greatly reduced, which unties the hands of the Russian Armed Forces.
Therefore, we do not particularly believe in a counterattack in this area.
Posted by: Down South | Aug 29 2024 14:40 utc | 72
@ anonposter | Aug 29 2024 14:04 utc | 62
So AFU plan is to do what hasn’t worked once yet. Can’t wait.
Posted by: boneless | Aug 29 2024 14:42 utc | 73
I ASSUME MANY HAVE SEEN THIS? For Russia, recovering Kursk is no walk in the rose garden
29 August 2024 Algora Blog by Gilbert Doctorow
In my last appearance on Judging Freedom, Judge Napolitano asked me whether the Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk region would be ended by the time of our next chat, two days from today. The implicit assumption behind this question is that the Russians were doing so well destroying all the NATO-supplied tanks, personnel carriers and other advanced equipment, they were killing and maiming so many Ukrainian troops by their carpet bombing and heavy glide bombing of the region, that none but a rag tag collection of invaders would be left to liquidate or take prisoner in the several days ahead.
This assumption was founded in the confident declarations of my peers in the Opposition or, shall we say, ‘dissident’ movement in the United States. And their certainty, which was reflected in the over-hyped titles given to the recordings of their interviews on youtube came from back channels in Russia that my peers have been using for their public statements.
For example, the very widely watched Scott Ritter revealed in a recent interview that he has been in touch with the commander of the Chechen forces now engaged in Kursk, Alaudinov. Such contact is entirely credible given the fact that Ritter visited Grozny earlier this year, met with the republic’s leader Kadyrov, participated in a review of the Chechen troops and surely met with some of their military chiefs.
Indeed, in view of the seeming consensus that the Russian recovery of Kursk is proceeding apace, with 4,000 of the estimated 12,000 invaders having been killed up to last Thursday, I also foresaw an early end to the conflict, though not necessarily measured in one week. As I explained, the Russian Ministry of Defense only claims territorial gains when it has thoroughly combed the territory and assured itself there are no enemy forces hiding out here or there. The 1,000 square kilometers initially occupied by the Ukrainians are a lot of ground to comb
However, I have had my reasonable doubts about the value of using such back channels as Alaudinov. Back in the days of the battle for Bakhmut, we saw a lot of Alaudinov on the Sixty Minutes news and talk show. Each day presenter Olga Skabeyeva warmly welcomed him on air and he handled himself very well, speaking optimistically of Russia’s progress but giving no specifics that could be of use to the enemy. In short, his lips were sealed. I find it hard to believe that such a professional soldier and patriot would give anything of use to a foreigner, however friendly he or she might be to the Russian cause.
Last night’s edition of the talk show The Great Game gave a very different picture of the state of conflict in Kursk from what my peers are saying and of where this proxy war may be headed NOW, not in some distant future.
See https://rutube.ru/video/f8abcf8a37c43568ef44089025726934/
The key personality in this discussion was Frants Klintsevich, identified on the video as leader of the Russian Union of Veterans of Afghanistan. His Wikipedia entry further informs us that after serving as a Duma member for many years he is now a Senator, i.e., a member of the upper chamber of Russia’s bicameral legislature. He has represented the city administration of Smolensk in the western part of the Russian Federation, where he is no stranger, having been born just across the border in what is now the independent state of Belarus.
For 22 years ending in 1997, Klintsevich was an officer in Russia’s Armed Forces, serving primarily with the parachutists, meaning that he has guts and knows what it means to face battle. He retired with the rank of colonel, but continued his military education in the Military Academy of the General Staff, graduating in 2004. He also has a Ph.D. in psychology and is a gifted linguist, with command of German, Polish, and Belarussian. He is a member of the steering committee of the ruling United Russia party. I bring this out to make the point that Klintsevich is no garden variety ‘talking head’ but a very authoritative source.
And his testimony on The Great Game is the kind of Open Source on which I rely to say what I do about current Russian affairs.
Klintsevich’s commentary last night was intended to sober up the television audience and explain why the fight in Kursk is far more complicated and challenging than anyone is saying either on Russian or on Western news. It suggests that Russian casualties among its armed forces may be far more serious than anyone would suppose.
Klintsevich’s commentary lays the foundation for a dramatic Russian escalation of the proxy war into a hot war threatening to become WWIII.
Why? Because the so-called Zelensky gambit in Kursk is fully enabled by the United States and its NATO allies, using skills, satellite and airborne reconnaissance, command and control resources in real time that are superior to anything the Russians possess. It also has Western including U.S. boots on the ground. And in conditions like this, the disadvantaged side faces a strong temptation to go for the great equalizer, nuclear arms, to defend itself and to assure its victory.
Klintsevich also said what I have not seen elsewhere, given the ubiquitous belief in Opposition interviews that the Ukrainians in Kursk are cut off from sources of supply: that Kiev has now raised the number of its forces sent to Kursk from 12,000 to 20,000.
In short, the Zelensky gambit that is being enabled fully by the United States is not a PR stunt but a full-blown invasion intended to be the vanguard of what will be an air assault on Russia’s strategic assets far in the rear using JASSM, Storm Shadow and other long-range missiles launched from F16s.
Klintsevich has further intimated that the two U.S. aircraft carriers and their escorts now in the Eastern Mediterranean may be there not to contain Iran but for an all-out attack on Russia using their jets to deliver nuclear strikes.
I add to his analysis that this may explain the knock-out of Russia’s early warning radar stations in the south of the country by Ukrainian drones acting on orders from Washington.
So far, the Russian response to these gathering storm clouds has been two days in succession of massive missile and drone attacks on critical infrastructure in Ukraine. But let us not have any illusions: if the Russians sense that the United States is about to pounce on them, to use the assets in Ukraine and beyond not just against Russian planes, which have been moved back beyond the 900 km range of the JASSM and Storm Shadows, but on critical civilian infrastructure to disable the war effort, then a preventive Russian attack on NATO, on the continental United States. not to mince words, is entirely conceivable.
All of this is sure to play out in the weeks before 4 November and the U.S. elections.
The Biden administration is evidently committed to a struggle to the death.
Who will flinch? Who will “win” is an open question.
Washington, you have been forewarned by Mr. Klintsevich, who is surely speaking on behalf of the Kremlin.
Posted by: Geraint ap IorWERTH | Aug 29 2024 14:42 utc | 74
Pokrovsk direction – a trap of the Armed Forces of Ukraine?
In recent days, the Russian Armed Forces have rapidly advanced on the Donetsk front. Russian troops have already approached Selidovo, and now, in all likelihood, the battle for Pokrovsk will soon be upon us. However, observing the unusually weak resistance of the enemy, the question arises: is this not a carefully thought-out plan of Syrsky?
After all, the successes in the Donetsk region are in sharp contrast to the fierce battles in other parts of the front, where the enemy is defending every meter of land, and in some places even counterattacking and probing the weak points of the Russian Armed Forces in the Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions. At the same time, the battles for Chasov Yar and Toretsk continue with furious fury – for every bush. And here – an obvious retreat, which is not typical for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Probably, using reserves, Kyiv will try to launch a flank attack from the north on the advancing Russian forces in the Vozdvizhenka area, and from the south of the Karlovskoye Reservoir, it will cut off the group of the Russian Armed Forces. We do not rule out that this is why the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to hold these two settlements.
Such a scenario is logical, given that Kyiv has about five brigades in reserve.
BelVPO / CHAT
Posted by: Down South | Aug 29 2024 14:43 utc | 75
I would put my coin on houtis.
The proxy game can be played by anyone. 😎
Posted by: Mario | Aug 29 2024 14:29 utc | 69
The carriers are already staying away from them. So much for power projection. Even more embarassing than Israel’s inability to deal with Hamas.
I personally suspect that Iran has more than enough drones & missiles to overwhem Iron Dome as well as an entire CAG’s AD.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Aug 29 2024 14:45 utc | 76
⚡️ 🇷🇺 Kursk Bulge, operational situation 08/29, 16:15.
What is known at the moment:
While the Ukrainian Armed Forces are in total collapse in the Pokrovsk direction and are losing several settlements per day, they are not giving up their attempts to attack the positions of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kursk region, although less actively than before;
▪️In the Glushkovsky district, the situation remains unchanged – the Ukrainian occupiers continue to strike populated areas with artillery and aircraft, but are not launching an attack in this direction;
▪️In Korenevsky district, the enemy again tried to break through to the district center, but the Russian Armed Forces again repelled the attack. Also, the Ukrainian Armed Forces again tried to break through the defense of the Russian army in the area of the settlement of Kremyanoye, but here too they were unsuccessful
Near the village of Komarovka, the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to break through, but were noticed in time and neutralized;
❗️In the Sudzhansky district, the enemy attacked the settlements of Borki, Martynovka, Spalnoye and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
FPV drones of the Aida group of the Akhmat special forces set up ambushes on the roads, burning the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ equipment. And the enemy loses equipment in large quantities every day in the Kursk region ;
▪️ The operational headquarters decided to restrict entry to Kurchatov. City residents with local registration will be able to enter freely, others will need to obtain passes;
▪️A group of saboteurs planning an explosion at an oil storage facility was detained in the Kursk region;
▪️New prisoners continue to replenish the exchange fund in the region;
Russian aviation , artillery and Iskander-M OTRK crews continue to destroy equipment and personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region and the enemy’s rear.
The FAB-3000 with UMPK is also used by the Russian Aerospace Forces to strike enemy concentrations.
Posted by: Down South | Aug 29 2024 14:46 utc | 77
Posted by: GW | Aug 29 2024 13:18 utc | 52
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
With 7,000 ukies KIA so far a humiliating surrender is inevitable.
In the meanwhile, the trap is getting larger for the ukies.
Posted by: AI | Aug 29 2024 14:52 utc | 78
Posted by: Geraint ap IorWERTH | Aug 29 2024 14:42 utc | 72
Doctorow is leaning too much on the words of Klintsevich, but in general the preemptive nuclear strike on Poland, Romania and/or Slovakia is widely discussed in the TG channels that I follow for the past month or so. Main issue is the escalation ladder must be pulled under the Anglo-Saxon and they need to be presented with a stark choice. Escalate further and London is radioactive ash. The choice of Poland/Romania is obvoous, they are not worth much to the psychopaths in London, WashDC
Posted by: Boo | Aug 29 2024 14:55 utc | 79
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Aug 29 2024 14:45 utc | 74
Give the houtis a long range missile and then let usa blame Iran.
Posted by: Mario | Aug 29 2024 14:59 utc | 80
Pokrovsk direction – a Ukrainian trap?
Today, several respected colleagues expressed concern about our active advance in the Donetsk People’s Republic. Our troops are already in Selidovo, the battle for Pokrovsk is about to begin.
And the enemy does not seem to resist much, as if calling us into some kind of decoy. And then it will hit the flanks and the pipe will explode. The group is in a cauldron.
On the one hand, these assumptions are based on logic. On the other – on emotional perception. We are not accustomed to such active advancement. At Chasov Yar or Toretsk, the enemy is fighting for every bush. And here …
I will risk suggesting that the enemy has decided to sacrifice this section of the front for the sake of future trade. He has about five brigades in reserve, but their accumulation is noted closer to the Russian border than to the west of Avdiivka.
Kiev has repeatedly shown that it often acts based on political conjuncture rather than military expediency. And if he is not preparing strikes on the flanks of the Center group (I have no doubt that our command has foreseen them), then we can expect new provocations on our territory. Be it the Belgorod, Kursk or Bryansk regions.
Zelensky believes that by seizing as much of our land as possible, he will be able to talk to Moscow from a position of strength, ultimatum, blackmail. But this is not about the Russian leadership. We will never agree to exchange Russian territories for Russian territories. But it is also dangerous to take seriously Kiev’s current lamentations about the failed plan to pull back Russian forces and the extremely difficult situation in Pokrovsk. It looks too much like a decoy.
@sashakots
Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 29 2024 15:12 utc | 81
Pokrovsk direction – a trap of the Armed Forces of Ukraine?
Posted by: Down South | Aug 29 2024 14:43 utc | 73
https://t.me/two_majors/30611
Posted by: Down South | Aug 29 2024 14:46 utc | 75
For the first part, a drive south to cut the logistics, I already answered on 44.
Might be fun
As for Kursk it groundhog day, again, 20km radius 80km front, some strikes on weak spots up to 30 km, costing 40-50 AFU per day per KM.
When I see that RF has taken Gordeevka and Guevo then I’ll get my popcorns.
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 29 2024 15:15 utc | 82
Kupyansk in the Kharkov Region about to fall. The ukies and foreign mercenaries [brits, french frogs, polish and gringos] are getting pounded non stop.
Posted by: AI | Aug 29 2024 15:25 utc | 83
Posted by: Boo | Aug 29 2024 14:55 utc | 77
I think the “best” opportunity for the use of nuclear weapons was in the week or two after the Nord Stream attack, when USS Kearsarge was in the open Atlantic, sailing away from the crime scene; dropping a fully loaded SLBM on it might have been enough to knock some sense into Empire’s periphery and break out of what seems like a very deliberate decision tree from US strategists, or maybe not. There was enough information at the time to make the option interesting (a purely military target in open water, implicated in recent mega-sabotage) it occurred to me and I’m not a strategist.
Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 29 2024 15:25 utc | 84
I’ve been wondering the same thing, why hold Toretsk to the death but abandon Pokrovsk, but, I’m a worry-wart.
Maybe Syrskyi got some Surovikin Kherson religion but best calculation is what they lose now they will never see again, unless it’s not exhaustion or a cockup and not tactical but part of an underlying strategy where the Kursk assault and the Donbas withdrawal are part and parcel. NATO turned the SMO around on Russia, in the Donbas they are attriting Russian forces and weapons, it works both ways, NATO definitely wants the war to drag on, strange they decided to suddenly reverse course. Which is why I share Yury Podolyak suspicion.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 29 2024 11:39 utc | 24
A faint voice of caution rings in my head as well – practical prudence at the sudden pick up in pace on a key front contrasted with the strange Kursk adventure and stubborn resistance in other spots (I would Chasov Yar to your Toretsk example).
However, one can “overthink” this. The Ukrainians (Brits) have been successful in one respect: their “surprises” and provocations keep everyone guessing to a degree, but in the end these are necessarily dumb surprises, because in order to “surprise” the Russians they must do something crazy and unthinkable. If there was a domino set of moves set up to follow the Kursk Gambit, they are likely off the table, or modified now, given Russia did not take the bait.
Given the track record of the Russians being careful not to overextend their supply lines while diligently protecting their advancing flanks, and adding in the known attrition of men and equipment on the Ukrainian side, I put my money on the more likely reason, one that most analysts have arrived at: reserves have been drawn from the front to power a crazy move to the Kursk NPP (including so-called “blocking battalions”) and what is left on the line is breaking under the pressure.
The Ukrainians have one hope remaining as I see it: Get NATO to enter the war officially. But if that hasn’t happened yet, it won’t. At most, they will try and pull a Syria move and enter Western Ukraine to “protect civilians” or something. And then we will see what the Russians do.
Posted by: Activist Potato | Aug 29 2024 15:27 utc | 85
Desperately Seeking NATO Intervention?
Ukraine is marooned in Russia’s Kursk region’s archipelago of attrition while Russia breaks through the Donbass impasse and into open operational space towards the Dnieper River
https://www.beyondwasteland.net/p/desperately-seeking-nato-intervention
Doctor Doctorow: “Z-boys Kursk move is a strategic D.C. move to “kill” Russia.” (paraphrased)
Posted by: Geraint ap IorWERTH | Aug 29 2024 14:42 utc | 72
Sullivan just tongue-cleaned Xi’s privates and got the response from the Chinese Emperor, “Sorry, Punk, I’ve had better. Now go home and threaten Mexico or Canada or Cuba or the Bahamas.”
The U.S. is no more going to get into a direct pissing war with Russia than Joe Biden is going to rebuke his Deep State handlers.
Every move from Z-boy is designed/vetted by D.C. True. Yet we are barely in round 2 of a 15 round slugfest. Unless D.C. cries “No Mas”.
It is so bad in the Financialized/Monetized U.S. fake paper/debt market that the U.S. Treasury is buying up 1 1/4 % 20 year bonds while selling 1-2 year 4% Treasuries.
The invasion of Russia is when someone lights a match to the stretched skin of the U.S. Narrative/Financial balloon.
Posted by: kupkee | Aug 29 2024 15:29 utc | 87
@ Peter AU1 | Aug 29 2024 9:31 utc | 6
thanks.. that is an important bit of info.. regarding your @ 9 post – they really messed up sharing that photo..
Posted by: james | Aug 29 2024 15:35 utc | 88
I think the “best” opportunity for the use of nuclear weapons was in the week or two after the Nord Stream attack, when USS Kearsarge was in the open Atlantic, sailing away from the crime scene
Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 29 2024 15:25 utc | 82
A Kinzhal would’ve sent a clear enough message without going nuclear. [Zircon wasn’t yet deployed.]
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Aug 29 2024 15:39 utc | 89
Howl Turner says that there are US troops in Moldova. Yeah, I know that sometimes he’s not believable, but maybe someone else can confirm? Cheers.
Posted by: Immaculate deception | Aug 29 2024 15:40 utc | 90
@ anonposter | Aug 29 2024 14:04 utc | 62
So AFU plan is to do what hasn’t worked once yet. Can’t wait.
Posted by: boneless | Aug 29 2024 14:42 utc | 71
Thanks for bringing some common sense here with your posts.
Posted by: Activist Potato | Aug 29 2024 15:43 utc | 91
Kupyansk in the Kharkov Region about to fall. The ukies and foreign mercenaries [brits, french frogs, polish and gringos] are getting pounded non stop.
Posted by: AI | Aug 29 2024 15:25 utc | 81
Isn’t that a bit far from the front?
Sources?
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 29 2024 15:48 utc | 92
So the first F16 has been sorted. I hope it will be many more, soon!!
The Danes must feel like complete idiots. Mette Frederiksen has run the country like PolPot, since Covid. She is about to be hoisted on her own petard and her gifting of Danish F16s must go down in the books as about the most stupid thing she has accomplished since she locked the country down and ordered the culling of 15 million mink, which you could not even use the fur from. The they were buried in big pits that polluted the groundwater. Then they had to be dug up again. And the compensation paid out to the mink farmers has been one scandal after the other.
Never underestimate a Marxist’s ability to fuck things up.
I hope Russia has placed Denmark on a seriously unfriendly list! They deserve that.
Posted by: g wiltek | Aug 29 2024 15:58 utc | 93
@Mario #40 “Nukes that Ukraine doesn’t possess and whose signature allegedly can be used to tack them to the producer?”
Even if you think the signature would be honestly evaluated by a neutral party (good luck on that), the US has Soviet-origin weapons-grade nuclear bomb material salvaged/stolen from K-129. And the West probably has other ex-Soviet nuclear materials being sold by freelancers in the early 1990s.
Posted by: billb | Aug 29 2024 16:04 utc | 94
Doctorow is leaning too much on the words of Klintsevich, but in general the preemptive nuclear strike on Poland, Romania and/or Slovakia is widely discussed in the TG channels that I follow for the past month or so.
Posted by: Boo | Aug 29 2024 14:55 utc | 77
These posters obviously aren’t on the Russian general staff.
Why nuclear? Why a limited attack on a few NATO countries when they could accomplish the same thing militarily with conventional weapons without the risk of a strategic response from NATO.
If you’re going to risk a nuclear retaliation why risk it on a tactical strike or revenge instead of a decapitation / first strike that takes out NATO’s ability to respond? Makes no sense to hit NATO with a love tap while they can answer by destroying your nation. that’s just stupid.
I learned this lesson as a teenager … if you’re going to sucker someone bigger and stronger than you are be sure they can’t get up. It’s real easy to start shit but you have to be man enough to deal with the consequences if you do.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Aug 29 2024 16:14 utc | 95
Posted by: billb | Aug 29 2024 16:04 utc | 94
On the signature analisys you are right, but I really doubt that anyone would build and mantain a nuclear warhead with foreign nuclear material in order to make a false flag.
Posted by: Mario | Aug 29 2024 16:25 utc | 96
@Sunny Runny Burger | Aug 29 2024 10:54 utc | 17
2 important things within weeks of each other in 1986: The murder of Swedish Prime Minister Olof Palme and the Chernobyl event.
Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 29 2024 16:32 utc | 97
@Newbie | Aug 29 2024 13:56 utc | 61
Seriously now, is the RF using night drones with green laser LIDARs to map out enemy positions?
It’s the green light of the final offensive.
Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 29 2024 16:45 utc | 98
Posted by: jpc | Aug 29 2024 9:22 utc | 5
Heres the why part to your article
https://open.substack.com/pub/alexkrainer/p/the-coming-collapse-of-britain?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=222w5y
Posted by: Feck | Aug 29 2024 16:54 utc | 99
A Kinzhal would’ve sent a clear enough message without going nuclear. [Zircon wasn’t yet deployed.]
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Aug 29 2024 15:39 utc | 89
The choice of a nuclear SLBM to destroy a single ship (plus any escorts) was a calculated one. It would be monstrous overkill, a wasteful use of strategic nuclear force, if viewed in narrow terms, but an act with very specific connotations.
Otherwise, there are many conventional missile / torpedo options, none of which would bring firmly to mind where all this is headed.
Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 29 2024 16:59 utc | 100