I do not understand how Ukrainians hid troops near the border when the opposition has satellites, thermal imaging and counter artillery batteries with seismic detection.
Posted by: andros | Aug 23 2024 8:57 utc | 410
Perhaps after last summers Ukrainian offensive the Russians were pleasantly surprised that the Ukrainians were going to try their luck again.
“Never interrupt your enemy while he’s making a blunder.”

Posted by: HB_Norica | Aug 23 2024 11:09 utc | 403

“The current administration behaves like a person who extends one hand and holds a dagger behind their back with another one,” Antonov said, describing Washginton’s recent comments about Kyiv not being allowed to use U.S. weapons for strikes deep into Russian territory as “goading”

What an extraordinary insight. I am so glad that, two and a half years after the start of the SMO, a Russian ambassador starts to suspect that, maybe, after all, the US is such a trustworthy actor. Really, these Russians are the most perspicacious. Maybe in another two years they will proceed to the next deduction : that the US may not be totally 100% honest when negotiating agreements. Let’s keep our fingers crossed.

Posted by: Micron | Aug 23 2024 11:13 utc | 405

Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Aug 23 2024 10:41 utc | 431
Got it, many thanks.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 23 2024 10:41 utc | 430
So, Kobblekampfgruppe Stoltenberg launched operation Freakout, with phase lines, Surprise, Bargain and Blackmail, the picture is getting less opaque, by the day!
‘And then now they are probably sitting and thinking about the second round. Why did we do this? What is the strategic goal?’
Such a surprising, clever decision to ignore the basic rules of operational planning, or for that matter any planning. Suitably inspired, I’m now going to wander into the kitchen and work out why I’m in there, I’m sure I can find something to do! Perhaps burn down the house, that would certainly scare my wife and force her to decide about whether we should buy a motor-home. This planning lark’s not as hard as it’s been cracked up to be, you just do something surprising and work it out from there.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 23 2024 11:23 utc | 407

Milites | Aug 23 2024 10:11 utc | 423
Gee, Milites. I’m surprised at your pettiness and sourness, pedantry and puffery, purely arising from a minor challenge to your authoritive perspective. As a hardcore left-brainer (“strategist and operational planner” @272), I’m not surprised at your doctrinal fixidity.
I recently took a long break from reading and commenting here for just those reasons; returned and made just one initial post about AFU/NATO cleverness re the Kursk offensive; foolishly got embroiled in the knee jerk antagonism against it by the partisan children here; so I’ll happily take my leave again.
Ha, and people talk about the virulent trolls here disrupting and repelling sincere forum regulars. It’s also the pompous sacred cows who drive away open-minded discussions. But you’ll just say you’re tired, and move on regardless.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Aug 23 2024 11:56 utc | 409

Posted by: Milites | Aug 23 2024 11:23 utc | 441
As in any self-respecting thriller, when the wife is murdered, the culprit is 99% the husband. In this case it is the nuclear power plant. Reasoning like a “Dune” mentat, it could be a fake, the reality could be the same as in 2022: lengthen the Russian supply lines and take advantage of it by using the new wunderwaffen that will arrive from NATO and the new brigades that will be formed by the newborns, given birth to this year by Ukrainian women. In practice I see no other solution than a foreign legion of at least 100,000 highly trained men who will appear out of nowhere.

Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Aug 23 2024 12:03 utc | 411

439….Putin said one year ago maybe that the West is an Empire of Lies….they know….got “stung” -????-after Lavrov had to deal with Kerry and his “moderate” rebels re Syria .

Posted by: Jo | Aug 23 2024 12:15 utc | 413

Posted by: Micron | Aug 23 2024 11:07 utc | 435
Why don’t you go post on shadowbanned’s blog. I suspect that your hysteria just gets skipped over in this bar.

Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Aug 23 2024 12:50 utc | 415

‘ISIS-K’ has attacked the Volgograd penal colony. The members who attacked it are citizens of Tajikistan.
A friendly reminder that the British government is known to nurture ISIS-K in Tajikistan. London actually hosts refugees from Tajikistan through British funded NGO, which nurtures extremism and sends immigrants back to Tajikistan, which are MI6 directed cells. This was found out during Crocus attack.
https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1826946662087954844

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 23 2024 12:52 utc | 417

Milites | Aug 23 2024 12:52 utc | 450 “Agree, and given the fact the Russians know exactly what they want to achieve operationally, and by what methods”
The old fronts very much business as usual.
Shortly after I posted the quote from Reuters, they came out with and updated article.
The Ambassador to the US said Putin has now made a decision on how to punish the Kursk adventure. I will be watching with interest to see what that entails.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 23 2024 12:58 utc | 419

“7. Russia does absolutely nothing. ”
Posted by: Micron | Aug 23 2024 11:10 utc | 438
“Except, slowly but surely, ‘de- Nazifiying the Ukraine army; taking over the Donbass; growing its economy faster than the West during war time; cementing diplomatic, cultural and economic ties with the second and third world countries; illustrating to the world that Russia has cheaper and more effective military equipment than the West; de-dollarizing the world through BRIC institutions”
Other than that, you are right on!

Posted by: canuck | Aug 23 2024 13:05 utc | 421

https://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12526427@egNews#txt

23.08.2024 (14:20)
Russian Defence Ministry report on repelling an invasion attempt of the AFU on the territory of the Russian Federation (23 August 2024)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to repel the AFU attempt to invade the territory of the Russian Federation.
The Sever Group of Forces supported by Army Aviation and artillery fire repelled attacks launched by enemy assault detachments towards Borki and Malaya Loknya, as well as thwarted the enemy’s attacks in the direction of Komarovka, Korenevo, Martynovka, and Russkaya Konopelka. The AFU losses have amounted to up to 70 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded, two armoured fighting vehicles, and one motor vehicle.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue reconnaissance and search operations to locate and eliminate enemy small sabotage and reconnaissance groups attempting to get to the depth of the Russian territory. A sabotage and reconnaissance group of the enemy was detected and neutralised near Kamyshevka. The enemy lost 5 militants and one motor vehicle.
Army Aviation and artillery strikes and actions of troops inflicted losses on manpower and hardware clusters of the AFU 22nd, 61st, and 115th mechanised brigades, and 80th air assault brigades near Apanasovka, Aleksandria, Vishnevka, Guyevo, Mikhailovka, Lyubymivka, Malaya Loknya, Plekhovo, Snagost, and Yuzhny.
Operational-Tactical Aviation delivered strikes at the enemy’s reserves in concentration areas of manpower and hardware of the AFU 41st, 54th mechanised brigades, 82nd and 95th air assault brigades, 36th Marine Brigade, 101st, 103rd, 106th, and 129th territorial defence brigades as well as 69th Rifle Battalion near Aleksandrovka, Bachevsk, Buyankino, Vorozhba, Glukhov, Kamenka, Miropolye, Mogritsa, Novaya Sloboda, Obody, Pervomayskoye, Pavlovka, Svessa, Seredina Buda, and Tolstodubovo.
In the past 24 hours, the AFU losses amounted to up to 400 Ukrainian troops and 17 armoured vehicles, including one tank, two armoured personnel carriers, 14 armoured fighting vehicles, two artillery guns, one MLRS launcher, two mortars, and 10 motor vehicles.
Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to up to 5,137 Ukrainian troops, 69 tanks, 27 infantry fighting vehicles, 55 armoured personnel carriers, 350 armoured fighting vehicles, 158 motor vehicles, 34 artillery guns, five SAM launchers, 11 multiple-launch rocket systems, including three of HIMARS system and one of MLRS system, six electronic warfare stations, as well as four units of engineering vehicles, including two counterobstacle vehicles and one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle.
The operation to neutralise the AFU units is in progress.

Posted by: Lantern Dude | Aug 23 2024 13:17 utc | 423

Scott Ritter said with Nima/Dialogue Works that RUAF broke through the defensive lines, and there are no AFU troops behind it. Presumably he is speaking about Pokrovsk front.
Indeed, Novogrodovka which could liberate into RUAF hands is the anchor of the terracon defensive line. There are no solid positions behind it.
https://x.com/onlydjole/status/1826941747529658529

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 23 2024 13:32 utc | 425

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 23 2024 1:50 utc | 305
“Piss off troll”
Posted by: Wisco | Aug 23 2024 9:41 utc | 421
I thought you were more clever than that retort which is just mirroring the imitable Peter AU1

Posted by: canuck | Aug 23 2024 13:37 utc | 427

In the past 24 hours, the AFU losses amounted to up to 400 Ukrainian troops and 17 armoured vehicles, including one tank, two armoured personnel carriers, 14 armoured fighting vehicles, two artillery guns, one MLRS launcher, two mortars, and 10 motor vehicles.
Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to up to 5,137 Ukrainian troops, 69 tanks, 27 infantry fighting vehicles, 55 armoured personnel carriers, 350 armoured fighting vehicles, 158 motor vehicles, 34 artillery guns, five SAM launchers, 11 multiple-launch rocket systems, including three of HIMARS system and one of MLRS system, six electronic warfare stations, as well as four units of engineering vehicles, including two counterobstacle vehicles and one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle.
The operation to neutralise the AFU units is in progress.
Posted by: Lantern Dude | Aug 23 2024 13:17 utc | 457
Now we might be seeing things deflating.
Casualties continue to increase, vehicles continue reducing, tanks also starting to reduce.
Probably 20.000 AFU out of order, half of those forever.
And there is something that will be a bigger problem for Z as things advance.
If I were to make a simple adjustment (and ignore a probable one time extra 5000 at the start), I’d be tempted to consider that every 6 months desertions double, 1.350, 3.500, 7.000, 14.000, 28.000, 56.000, 112.000, 224.000, etc, etc (currently we’re in the 56k semester). As an added bonus the real figures can be twice as high as those recorded.
“The Ukrainian authorities have recorded 37,000 cases of desertion and abandonment of military units since the beginning of this year, but the real number of such offenses is twice as large, the head of the Political Values Research Center, Oles Doniy, has said.
“The military says that the real figure is twice as large,” he said on the YouTube channel Utro.LIVE. “Therefore, we must strengthen the army, but the approach to mobilization should be adjusted.”
Doniy noted a sharp increase in cases of desertion and the abandonment of military units: in 2022 there were 9,000 such incidents, in 2023 – 21,000, and in seven full months of this year, 37,000.”

Posted by: Newbie | Aug 23 2024 13:44 utc | 429

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Aug 23 2024 9:36 utc | 418
But we all know that RF rolls with the punches and always comes out of its travails for the better.

True, but also they have a history of going through extended periods of suffering and hardship, some of which are self-engendered. The Neocon Tribals want war and they have many levers to pull in many nations to get it. RF does not want war, nor any of her allies, but it is getting harder for them to avoid it. Put another way: how many times can the bear be mauled before it becomes enraged?
PCR has been arguing since early on in the SMO that Russia’s unwillingness to aggressively conquer Ukraine invites a wider war because the American-cum-neocon leadership class, which he knows well and deplores greatly, interprets such reticence as weakness and so escalates accordingly. Events seem to be proving him right. I often counter his arguments with mental projection of Putin’s 4D chess mastery whilst also, because of my own prejudice, projecting more incompetence on the Hegemon than history or events warrant.
If you look at it from the NATO POV, it seems that they are closer to the wider war they are gunning for, both in Ukraine and Palestine theatres; from the RF POV, perhaps they have got Ukraine close to imminent collapse in Donbass and this Kursk business will soon be flash in the pan ephemeral, but perhaps also it’s a consequential fuck-up on their parts trusting overmuch in confidential agreements made early on or simply being over confident that their adversaries would not have the gumption to attack them that way – because nuclear etc.

Posted by: Scorpion | Aug 23 2024 13:45 utc | 431

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 23 2024 13:35 utc | 460
Sorry, don’t wish me ill, but I think one thing: Kurks was attacked by at least 7 brigades, the progression 1-2-2. and 2 in reserve! Do you think that on a 600 km front there were only 7 reserve brigades for Donbass? I have some suspicions! If so, the war is over, at least as we have seen it up to now.

Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Aug 23 2024 13:59 utc | 433

https://t.me/intelslava/65485

🇺🇦🇷🇺🇺🇸French media reported that a Ukrainian source denied Western officials’ claims that the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ attack on the Kursk region was not coordinated with them.
According to the source, Kyiv’s allies were informed before the Ukrainian troops attacked the Russian region.
He specifically stressed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would not have been able to attack the Kursk region behind the allies’ backs due to the complexity of the operation and the weapons that were used.

Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 23 2024 14:02 utc | 435

Posted by: dogowoof | Aug 22 2024 17:45 utc | 149
……………………………..
That sets out the problem but I see no reason to change the conclusion I arrived at in early 2022. This thing goes nuclear or Ukraine gets demilitarised and denazified. If this lot doesn’t come down fairly soon I shall be most surprised. Or fried.
https://forward.com/news/462916/nazi-collaborator-monuments-in-ukraine/
I’m puzzled by the talk of NATO coming in in strength. One can only ask, with what? The US doesn’t have sufficient manpower over here in Europe and the Europeans don’t have much usable at all. Certainly the US could deploy its formidable air force but 1, the losses would be exceptionally heavy given Russin AD and 2, that air force would need to be based in Europe, surely?
My impression is that we Europeans, in the main, see this conflict as a sort of video game being played out “over there”. We cheer for “our side” much as there’s always big talk about football matches or the like. It’s not real for us.
It’d become very real if bases or logistics in Europe started getting bombed. And that’s what would happen if NATO tried direct conflict. Let alone the probability of it going nuclear.
A contributor on Colonel Lang’s old site sets out the reality there. In capitals because it deserves capitals:-
THIS IS THE SITUATION PAT LANG WARNED ABOUT AND WHY HE STIPULATED THAT RUSSIANS AND AMERICANS MUST NEVER FIGHT EACH OTHER. EACH SUCH CONFRONTATION ENDS IN A NUCLEAR EXCHANGE.
No more to be said. Except, maybe, that this casual and disregarded sacrifice of so many unfortunate Ukrainians will, I think, be a black mark for the West for ever.

Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 23 2024 14:08 utc | 437

Breaking. The ISIS-K takeover of Volnograd prison installation is over. All the ISIS-K members are eliminated and hostages rescued.
https://x.com/Zlatti_71/status/1826984840568172605

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 23 2024 14:11 utc | 439

Speculation: The fuel ferry took a direct hit. A F16 or two skimming the BS waves can attack Crimea from the south and south west undetected…… spy planes were up and active.
Just an educated guess for those wondering were the F16’s are and if they get used.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 23 2024 14:13 utc | 441

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Aug 23 2024 11:56 utc | 443

Someone is very sensitive to having their ideas questioned. As Milites wrote, any surprise attack if measured the way you did would be ‘clever’ regardless of operational impacts. Instead of a rebuttal, you attack the person. Weak.
The NAFO brigaders are pretty obvious. They’re the ones who prevaricate between vague threats, pronouncement of Western dominance, outlandish deception and ridiculous conclusions. The ones with a desperate need to convince of Western superiority and with no real interest in contrbuting to the discussion otherwise. A need to have their worldview validated instead of challenged, like intellectual cowards. They’re disinformation agents or useful idiots, really no other kinds.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Aug 23 2024 14:26 utc | 443

Time is working for the West and Nato.
Posted by: guest from franconia | Aug 23 2024 13:15 utc | 456
umm…
Do you think time is working in our favour?
I see the world today in what I would call a ‘downfall of (evil) western capitalism’ historical perspective.
I cannot deny that my personal feelings and ideology have a considerable bias towards a bleak outlook on the future of the country and forces to which we belong.
But let me give my own view.
Even without taking issue with Russia, I believe that our internal situation and the devastation of our society is dragging us down ourselves.
For example, the average age of our people. Only our leader, the United States, is young, but all of America’s allies are largely old.
The average age of many European countries is over 40. Many people would rather want pension life than go to expedition.
And I believe that in the future the world and the developing world will be more wary than ever of our Western intrusion, rejecting our capital entry, behaving more ‘socialist’ and trying to protect their domestic industries from the West.
These are also side effects of the Colour Revolution, the Maidan Revolution and the war in Ukraine, and the Gaza Genocide in Israel.
Developing countries outside the West are seeing the consequences of ‘accepting US advisers into their countries’ in the Middle East and Ukraine.
They are now watching the West’s modus operandi in a nonchalant way. I believe that perhaps infinite contempt is growing in their hearts now.
I believe that it will be much more difficult for western ideologues to penetrate and exert influence in developing countries than at the end of the 20th century.
so…
Even leaving aside the struggle with Russia (or China ,Iran), the ‘West’ itself has become a dangerous society with a number of time bombs.
An ageing population and pensions, national debt, income inequality, racial hatred, a public whose basic academic skills have been drastically undermined by neoliberal attacks on public education, and a culture of ‘woke’ that drives LGBTQ and other sexual perverts to aggression.
I have no confidence in my country’s ability to function well in 20 or 30 years’ time.
Do you think time will bring a better tomorrow than yesterday to your country?
I do not feel so.
So I believe that time is never on our side.

Posted by: Nokaz | Aug 23 2024 14:30 utc | 445

: truthiness | Aug 23 2024 6:55 utc | 381
The return of Tichy .. lol
my my , what anger you have. all that effort.
and in the end, truthiness will be deleted as Tichy was.
just an anti-social loser with zero input.

Posted by: Carrion | Aug 23 2024 14:37 utc | 447

The Ukrainian defences in the Pokrovsk and Niu York/Toretsk areas are incredibly weak. The Russians stormed 80% of the apartment complex on the northern side of Toretsk, after previously taking the mine and slag heap to the east of that. The speed with which they did this is in stark contrast to the slow and brutal process in Artymovsk (Bakhmut).
After the apartment complex there are just low rise unfortified residential buildings all the way to the centre of Toretsk, which an advance to will flank everything to the south and threaten to create a new cauldron with the only opening to the west. The whole northern area of Toretsk, outside the centre, is also low rise residential so the fall of the rest could now happen quite quickly – increasing the cauldron to include the centre area. Toretsk falls before the end of August? The Ukrainians are also crumbling along the front between Ivanivske and Toretsk.
At the same time the Russians are fully storming Novohrodovka and Hrodovka, while entering Krasni Yar. The latter move threatens to flank Hrodivka by then taking Mykolaivka and the heights to the west of Hrodivka. Krasni Yar is also only 5kn from Pokrovsk. After Mykolaivka, there is only Myrnohrad between the Russians and Pokrovsk.
Progress also continues to the south of Novohrodivka, as the Russians drive south to Mykhailivka, which is right next to Slydove.
Everything is giving way while Zelensky plays silly games up north.
Weeb Union: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbKre86cDTk
Dima: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K45AkMOfrkM

Posted by: Roger | Aug 23 2024 14:55 utc | 449

The way for Russia to apply pressure to China is to threaten to start taking out USA/European satellites by any means available, meaning Chinese satellites would be collateral damage. China probably doesn’t want this so the alternative would be for China to open new fronts by taking action regarding Taiwan and by cooperating with Russia in heavily arming Iran and it’s proxies. Once three fronts active, USA/Europe will probably start talking seriously about negotiations. If not, then maybe the satellites get hit.
Nukes is a last option.

Posted by: anonposter | Aug 23 2024 15:04 utc | 451

Everything is giving way while Zelensky plays silly games up north.
Posted by: Roger | Aug 23 2024 14:55 utc | 483
In 472 I mentioned (as possibilities for AFU) the following, kursk could make sense as a decoy….
P.S. Maybe, just maybe, if he used the dead spots between the 4 hour satellite overpass, he could still make a mad dash to the dnieper with as many men and equipment as they could muster (and risk some AD to cover the retreat). 300 km could be doable in what? 10 hours? Maybe they could get most across before RF decided to cut the bridges out. This is the only reasonable option (so in a way unlikely), but it might already be underway (Scott Ritter said with Nima/Dialogue Works that RUAF broke through the defensive lines, and there are no AFU troops behind it. Presumably he is speaking about Pokrovsk front.). Maybe those 30.000 were a decoy? Get most of the RF airforce further ffrom where they could mow down the retreating armies?

Posted by: Newbie | Aug 23 2024 15:13 utc | 453

Moonraker | Aug 23 2024 15:04 utc | 486
The Russians from the sketchy days of the cold war when they had strategic impulse over the US recently trashed by Vietnam have always been reliable to avoid nuclear confrontation.
Unlike the US and it mini poodles.
Russia and BRICS need a little time for the PNAC world to fade.
Time is on Russia’s side.
Big Serge is a great researcher and has some good logic, but he was not yet born when the cold war was rumbling during and after Vietnam!
Worrisome that the UK and France have nukes!

Posted by: ilsm | Aug 23 2024 15:21 utc | 455

Worrisome that the UK and France have nukes!
Posted by: ilsm | Aug 23 2024 15:21 utc | 489
They already have nuclear weapons, but everything will probably be organized in such a way that the Americans can always prevent the use of British and French nuclear weapons if this creates a risk of retaliation for the USA. Experience shows that they have their satellites under control.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Aug 23 2024 15:35 utc | 457

Posted by: Micron | Aug 23 2024 11:07 utc | 435
“Riddle me this : how come a supposedly desperate NATO and US can provoke Russia in the open and essentially punch it in the face while laughing about it, while Russia absolutely cannot retaliate openly and is forced to do it in secret ?
Answer : because it’s either too weak or Putin and his ilk just don’t have the balls to do it.”
Wonderful question and answer!
I would like to think that the 2nd part of the “Answer” is more likely. Religious nuts who are split between “hopes” of the propaganda folks, and the desire to save their skin from hell fire when they croak!
I think that Putin is too religious to be a President.
However, that is my personal view. We will see how my view holds up until the end of the year. That is when Modi and his minions will take over the US. The Hidus know how to milk the world. People complain about JewSA, wait until you see how the Hindus operate. You have seen nothing yet!

Posted by: Victor | Aug 23 2024 16:20 utc | 459

IMHO, the BRICS should replace I with Iran.
Yesterday, when I was looking at people jumping on China’s throat: it occurred to me that you cannot have India and China, two mortal enemies, in the BRICS. Especially, with Modi playing both sides but on Western behalf. He is buying Russian oil, Russian transfer of defence technology, and Russian raw materials, while selling defense equipment to USA to be used in Ukraine, oil to the UK government and the West.
I don’t know why China will help Russia prop their enemy?
Just wondering?! Please tell me how China is being helped by Russia’s action, and how Russia is being helped by India’s actions?

Posted by: Victor | Aug 23 2024 16:40 utc | 461

Russia is learning new things about its place in the world order like other old empires have been forced to do. If Russia had the capability, it would have defeated Ukraine by now, but it doesn’t have the capability and Russian people will pay for Putin’s gamble for decades to come.

Posted by: Sniffing Enabler | Aug 23 2024 16:55 utc | 463

@ anon2020 | Aug 23 2024 16:40 utc | 495
thanks.. i remain open on the causes for the kursk incursion and some in russia’s actions that fueled this.. i appreciate your post and those of down south and many others here in trying to enlighten me on a complex situation..

Posted by: james | Aug 23 2024 17:22 utc | 465

How can the scum Modi be allowed to go to Ukraine unchecked and cavort with the comedian? Another failure for the Global South.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 23 2024 17:41 utc | 467

Kursk is Russia
Donbass is Russia
Crimea is Russia
Chechnya is Russia
Ukraine is Russia
SLAVA RUSSIA 🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺
-from Twitter

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 23 2024 17:43 utc | 469

Mario@483….checking the odds. What are the odds that Britkraine could amass, 10k, 20k, 30k troops, maybe more, pick a number, with attendant armour and supply to take a very distracting road trip into the Kursk, and take the Russian MOD by suprise. Some here will whine oh but but but attrition trap la la la la la. Explain that to the Russian civilians who are for now (days, weeks, months, negotiated forever) Ukrainian citizens. Their take may be different.
Cheers M
……open bet to any takers….the F16’s have already been used…..in the Kursk (mis)adventure, and several recent attacks on Crimea…..

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Aug 23 2024 17:51 utc | 471

@Posted by: Victor | Aug 23 2024 16:40 utc | 496

IMHO, the BRICS should replace I with Iran.

BRINCISSTAN: Belarus, Russia, Iran, North Korea, China, Iraq, Syria and the Stans – the real alliance for EurAsian independence from Western neo-colonial meddling.
With its regime changes in Pakistan and Bangladesh, the US has made sure that India will sit on the fence and not help either the US or China. On the industrial front, the Indian elite are slowly getting it finally into their oligarchic heads that they need to work with China or they will forever be just a large back woods of the region.

Posted by: Roger | Aug 23 2024 18:19 utc | 473

@459
Ritter also confirmed that AFU threw all its reserves into the Kursk adventure. Kiev is literally telling troops in Donbass to hold the line and fight to the death, which is an act of desperation. Guess no reinforcements coming.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 23 2024 13:35 utc | 460

Excuse me but how can Ritter know this ? Does he happen to have private sources of information ? Bullshit. Ritter doesn’t have any more info than what’s publicly available, and he has been wrong countless times already.

Posted by: Micron | Aug 23 2024 18:27 utc | 475

Ritter doesn’t have any more info than what’s publicly available, and he has been wrong countless times already.
Posted by: Micron | Aug 23 2024 18:27 utc | 510
At least the FBI believes Scott Ritter has documents at home that are not publicly available. Else you don’t get a search warrant.

Posted by: Passerby | Aug 23 2024 18:34 utc | 477

Andrei Martyanov’s latest: https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/08/another-one-bites-dust.html
Some choice excerpts:

[…]in the end it is COFM (Correlation of Forces and Means) and posture which dictates approach to any kind of war. NATO has neither[…]

~~~

Pathos-ridden rhetoric from West’s “elites” (a euphemism for BS) is just that. NATO is effectively de-militarized now. The required FORCE is not there for NATO, period! The best division-size force packed with US and other “volunteers” has been wiped off the face of the earth in ten days in Kursk.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 23 2024 18:41 utc | 479

Posted by: Mario | Aug 23 2024 18:42 utc | 515
Yes, they are Schrödingers F-16s, “there” and “not there” at the same time…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 23 2024 18:45 utc | 481

Two sites I rely on, at least from my cheap seat vantage, are Nicolai Lilin and Brozzikman on Youtube, the latter I’ve been watching since before the SMO and has not steered me wrong, and cheers me up. Both state around 30K AFU/NATO troops not the 11k originally reported. This would make sense as the supposed 4k dead would imply the Kursk force having gone the way of the Light Brigade, and it obviously hasn’t, the rapid collapse in the Donbas also suggest they moved experienced troops.
Also reported is the Russians have only sent in 5K in opposition, of course with air support and overwhelming artillery and rockets backing them. So, 5K vs 30K, bit of a Battle of Thermopylae, but chosen not forced, and the Russians seem very chill, steady strategy from the start, no panic no changes, plus Putin went on a three day political trip, so either it’s all a great big lie from the RuMoD, or the AFU just repeated the Charge Of The Light Brigade.
Russia was supposed to be the one pulling troops from the front and running around in confusion and panic yet it seems that’s what the AFU wound up doing. To early to call it but Bakhmut, BIG counter offensive, Robotino, Krynki, Avdevka, seems they are going for a perfect score – of zero. I blame the UK.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 23 2024 19:07 utc | 483

Some cracks are showing. For example, education and healthcare spending didn’t change between 2023 and 2024- except it did because inflation reduced the ruble’s value by ~7%. Which means worse outcomes longer term as those two are neglected. Also, while GDP PPP has grown, real GDP decreased almost 10% 2023-2024. Plus, there has been a deficit for the past couple years, covered by the funds in the National Wealth Fund but even that is drying up, the past two years took over $30 billion out each for the budget alone, and there’s less than $60 billion in liquid assets left so if next two budgets follows the trend, it may run dry. Inflation is also high and only growing, the MOEX is tumbling, and sanctions are taking their toll as payments are late or refused even from “friendly” countries like China that are reluctant to take Russian money due to threats of secondary sanctions.

Posted by: Gisaac | Aug 23 2024 19:17 utc | 485

In my opinion, some of this escalation can be attributed to weapons and weapon systems. In the past 2 years, Russia has demonstrated the ability to overcome and suppress Western weapons and have adapted even drone technology to combat field operations enabling them to counteract, even to the point of making Western weapons completely ineffective.
Case in point, all 40 drones aimed at Moscow, downed. I read an article that stated Russia has managed to equip their drones for short range surveillance maneuvers, even attack drones with optic cables lines for direct programming guidance without reliance on satellites and are immune to any jamming because of that.
On the battlefield, NATO has been left with drudging up longer range, more lethal and a variety of newer, or less used weapons, tapping other countries for weapons that Russia has not adapted on the battlefield to date.
Since they can’t continue to confront in actual combat operation against Russia using these sophisticated weapons Russia has adapted to, (yes, I get bullets fly, bombs drop, simple weapons still kill) their resolve to “stay in the game”, is simply running around Russian territory where there is no Russian army, and destroy everything they can b4 being countered.
The battlefield weapons adaptations, technology upgrades & development, exceeded by miles the West ability to build and supply Ukraine any longer with effective combat weapons.
Since the arms race is now hopelessly lost, they are resorting to full time straight up terror tactics, instead of the hit and runs they were doing. The main goal appears to be hitting every oil facility & energy source possible to hurt Russias economy & trade.
India and China both see this, and of course on edge. As they are becoming more concerned about their own contracts with Russia. Their own national interest should Russia’s energy security be threatened as it appears now to be. It’s the same they must be feeling about Iran. Are they going to wind up in the end here crawling to Saudi Arabia, USA, Algeria for their energy sources? It’s understandable that we see this push for settlement by India especially.
Side note: Ben Hodges commented on some interview today about how Ukraine still has 2 million able bodied citizens who Ukraine needs to encourage and prompt into military service and feels Zelensky hasn’t done a very good job of putting them into service. I remember the number when this started, of “available” service men, was between 4-6 milliIon. Understandably, some left. But now guessing at least 2 million either dead, in service now, or disabled for life. But according to Ben Hodges, he wants to throw 2 million more into his death cult, strategic defeat of Russia mantra.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 23 2024 19:23 utc | 487

Excuse me but how can Ritter know this ? Does he happen to have private sources of information ? Bullshit. Ritter doesn’t have any more info than what’s publicly available, and he has been wrong countless times already.
Posted by: Micron | Aug 23 2024 18:27 utc | 510
#######
Cope harder, LOL.
While I am not the world’s biggest Ritter fan, he has sources all over the world, and in that part of the world in particular. IIRC, his wife is Georgian and he claims to be a personal acquaintance of Chechen General Apti Alaudinov, who is currently fumigating Kursk.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 23 2024 19:27 utc | 489

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 23 2024 19:29 utc | 525
Also notable that @Gisaac didn’t provide a source. That gets my troll-detecting antennae twitching…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 23 2024 19:35 utc | 491

A somewhat pessimistic view from Colonel Lang’s old site (which has become generally, but not entirely, anti-Russian):
F&L says:
August 22, 2024 at 9:21 am
This is unreal. In a year or less the forces of the West will be able to sever the Caucuses from greater Russia by charging due East from the Donetsk region straight to Volgograd. Consult a good map. Sounds crazy, right? Maybe it did at one time but not now. Would that lead to nuclear war? Yes it might. It would be absurd to wait around and find out.
[Sorry TTG. I am an ardent fan and onetime practitioner of hiking and can’t recommend it highly enough (subject of original post)].
It’s just that this news item is potentially more critical than the news about Kursk, hard as that may be to believe. Russia has been utterly f’ed by the cretins and thieves in power now. (Roughly half of Shoigu’s close associates are in prison now or awaiting trials for thievery of military funds and materials – during a war. It’s obvious to informed people that were it not for the humiliation to Putin personally, Shoigu too would be awaiting trial, but now he’s the head of their security council). Those who know history will get it. Kursk and Volgograd (formerly Stalingrad). And Murmansk attacked by drones yesterday as Proletarsk continued burning in Rostov oblast. It’s time, in my opinion, to fully digest the reality that Russia is rapidly approaching a state of being defenseless and try to ward off the potential of a catastrophic nuclear exchange. It’s not out of the realm of possibility to see Putin’s latest invitation to the world’s anti-LGBT contingents as being something very different which repeats their catastrophic 1990s. Namely he knows full well that he’s lost so he’s opening the doors to CIA and MI6 agents to flood the country so that the drawdown can be managed sanely and covertly. I hope that’s what’s going on. There are vast millions of Russians, many of them children, who don’t deserve what is coming to them if this continues.
—————————————————
Two schools have damaged windows, people will be helped: Volgograd region was subjected to a massive UAV attack.
Everything we know about the morning emergency in the Kalachevsky district is collected online –
https://v1.ru/text/incidents/2024/08/22/73989245/
The Kalachevsky district of the Volgograd region was massively attacked by UAVs. The emergency occurred early in the morning of August 22. At first, local residents and eyewitnesses reported an explosion and a severe fire in the village of Oktyabrsky. Later, the information about the drone attack was confirmed by the governor of the Volgograd region Andrey Bocharov. We collect everything we know about the emergency in an online broadcast. (More, including comments at link -In Russian).

Posted by: Seward | Aug 23 2024 19:46 utc | 493

One of the nicest persons I have ever met, was an Austrian from Wienna. He was in Russia with the German army, servicing in the propaganda division. Their job was installing big loudspeakers around Stalingrad, booming day and night “Stalingrad Massengrab” He saw my Amrican Navy Surplus felt coat, and said “we didn’t even have that” It was so cold the birds would literally drop dead from the sky, the engines in the trucks were still frozen on top, even if you lit a fire below and made them red hot there. Batteries were taken out and placed in your sleeping bags to prevent them from freezing and splitting, and the transport planes could not switch off their engines when off loading supplies, because they could not start them again! All that, after he had driven through at least three border posts coming to see us from Austria, having talked his way through each of them, having left his pass port at home! That was in 1978.
He was one of about 8000 German survivors being marched From Russia back to Germany after the war. The only reason he survived was because of his way with people. They were not allowed to stop to use their rationing cards, and he relied on kids, giving them his cards and trusting them to catch up again and hand over what food they could get. Many of these kids had nothing themselves, or very little.
He has been dead for many years, but I still remember him fondly. I can not ask him the question, but if I could, I’m convinced he would tell me. Don’t poke the Russian bear. It will not end well for you.

Posted by: g wiltek | Aug 23 2024 19:50 utc | 495

“Vienna” sorry.

Posted by: g wiltek | Aug 23 2024 19:56 utc | 497

Posted by: Seward | Aug 23 2024 19:46 utc | 528
Wait, wait wait… what am I reading here? That terrorist attacks on innocent Russian civilians is something to be celebrated? Or that corruption and nepotism is somehow much worse than that in Western MIC circles?
The point of your post escapes me entirely.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 23 2024 19:59 utc | 499