Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
August 18, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-197

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

unimperator | Aug 19 2024 8:51 utc | 374
Yes. With the US more or less pulling out, the Brits look to be getting desperate now. Hard to tell how far they will go. Hitting the Kerch bridge, they either still want to gain control of Sevastopol or think hitting the bridge will help topple Putin and the Russian leadership.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 19 2024 8:56 utc | 301

unimperator | Aug 19 2024 8:51 utc | 374
IMVHO.
The goal for the Brits is always Crimea.
I see all these piece moves as an attempt to extend Russia and divert resources away from holding the land bridge to Crimea.
The fat lady is still in rehearsal….. so, we wait for the final performance…

Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 19 2024 8:57 utc | 302

The fat lady is still in rehearsal….. so, we wait for the final performance…
Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 19 2024 8:57 utc | 330
Yep. I tend to think that when we see the F16’s that will be the fat lady coming on stage. How right that will turn out to be I don’t know but is my thought now.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 19 2024 9:00 utc | 303

Posted by: HEL | Aug 19 2024 8:24 utc | 310
Now that was truly funny. Lol!

Posted by: Wisco | Aug 19 2024 9:03 utc | 304

Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 19 2024 8:57 utc | 316
As Russia roles up from the east, past Kurakhove and the Ugledar line collapses, the window of opportunity to capture Crimea or cut the Azov sea land connection (the British still think that is possible lol) is drawing to the close. Velyka Novosilka line is next after Ugledar/Kurakhove, there’s nothing but field and small villages between them. No more urbanized/industrialized defenses. That is the entire SE corner of the front crumbling from the AFU point-of-view. Might be sometime next year.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 19 2024 9:07 utc | 305

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 19 2024 8:03 utc | 366

“Bankova is confident that they will be able to get permission from the West to launch missile strikes on Russian territory as early as September, when the US elections are at the finish line and the Biden Administration needs to win on the Ukrainian track, and that Democratic candidate Camilla Harris could beat Trump.

***
OT really but ….
The bold part above, about kamel Harris winning, depends on who AIPAC chooses. When checking various X feeds this morning, one came up with a long thread naming the “dual nationalists” on the Trump team and including his Donors. It then suddenly disappeared. I’ve tried several times reloading but each time it has been blocked by…(someone?). So from this I deduct that Trump is completely controlled and therefore logically will be pushed by AIPAC to win. His own actions show that he might no longer be trying hard to win as he will simply have to be the “front-man” for the owners.
****
On fighting in Ukraine;
The question is going to be; are the Russians going to make a massive breakthough in the center (Pokrovsk) BEFORE the Ukes attack the NPP at Zaporizha or renew/enlarge their front near Kursk? Timing will be interesting, to say the least.
*
A scondary question; assuming that the Kursk “front” is NATO (Arms used, vehicles and mercenaries all seem to show this), does this include the US part of NATO as well? The US is apprently trying to appear blameless about NS2, and as pure as a sodden blanket. The “peace” chats mentioned, are probably more about the Corporations trying to hold onto their “assets” and save the derivatives market – than about saving the Russian speaking Ukrainians.
***
Just for Oz. Are Ozzled politicians creating a new “dreamtime”? Retreating into caves and Bunkers and drawing strange “submarine” shapes on the walls, while throwing money on fires to illuminate the scene? Or are they starting a new “cargo cult” and setting up Ports and landing fields for the US planes to come and give them some precious “cargo”?

Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 19 2024 9:09 utc | 306

I’m not sure this will happen, though this Sirus report channel is usually pretty good on the big picture.

The Sirius Report
@thesiriusreport
Given the Ukrainian Kursk offensive, it appears Russia might be about to change their SMO into an all out war. We have previously warned what that would mean should it ever happen and why it had to be avoided at all costs.
If that happens, the fallout will be devastating for Ukraine and is why the Kursk offensive was lunacy on steroids.

https://x.com/thesiriusreport/status/1825457540919869645

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 19 2024 9:12 utc | 307

This site still offers a heckuva lot of good technical info by very well-informed posters, but let’s face it: lately it has become a lot more like American partisan election-year politics or fútbol team cheerleading. Yes, Bevin said the comments section had become a “cesspool” and abandoned MoA. And that was long before Kursk. It’s unfortunate, but it is a fact, proven by the posting dynamics: many Western posters care much more about website social dynamics than about military facts and strategies, etc. Human nature.

Posted by: Wisco | Aug 19 2024 9:25 utc | 308

Stonebird | Aug 19 2024 9:09 utc | 312
Re the Americans and the coming war in the Asia pacific. There are two parts to it here in oz. On one side, the Americans are greatly expanding their bases across the north of oz and also a nuke sub port on the Indian ocean at Freemantle. The other part of it is the huge money flows to the US from Australia, the sub base is just one part, but to launch war against China, it seems we also have to acquire a large amount of expensive American military kit. Missiles, ships, planes ect.
The cannon fodder here are no different to the Ukroids, all thinking US it here to protect us and a government no different to the European governments – traitors to their people.
Musk as part of the Nationalist realist faction of the US power struck controls twitter, but the globalist/loyalist faction controls a lot of MSM plus facebook and youtube.
Numbers in the us power structure seem to have swung to the realist side – they are not getting returns on their Ukraine investment so I think Trump who fronts the realist faction will be the one crowned. The way the US is now, the power structure is like a couple of Mafia families that have separated so possibly some mob warfare type physical hostilities at election time as the globalists/loyalists try to continue holding power.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 19 2024 9:29 utc | 309

According to information from circles associated with the Russian Ministry of Defense, the goal of the Russian General Staff in the Kursk region is to focus on the destruction of equipment and reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, without organizing a large-scale transfer of our troops.
Despite reports from enemy media, Russia is not transferring forces from Donbass. Moreover, progress is developing on this section of the front. Which is confirmed by yesterday’s capture of New York. The next task in the direction is Toretsk.
The front in the Kursk direction has been stabilized. It is advantageous for Russia for Ukraine to transfer additional reserves, depriving itself of offensive potential in Donbass. “The enemy forces will gradually be stretched and destroyed. There is no goal to achieve the result as quickly as possible. The General Staff understands the limited mobilization resource of the enemy. Therefore, they will lure him out and eliminate him, continuing the liberation of Donbass,” assures a source close to the Frunzenskaya embankment.

https://t.me/Taynaya_kantselyariya/10880

Zelensky’s Kursk adventure for the Ukrainian Armed Forces may play a decisive role in this war, when we are losing precious equipment in the offensive campaign for Russia’s border territories.
The General Staff is forced to send more and more reserves to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, while Russia continues to advance in Donbas.
The tactics of the Russian Armed Forces are to force us to concentrate forces in the Kursk region. Those forces that could stop the enemy’s advance on more relevant sections of the front.
Zelensky’s “operation” may finally leave us without an army, equipment and morale. The Russians were able to stabilize the front, so there can be no talk of any march to the Kursk NPP.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/23980

Posted by: Down South | Aug 19 2024 9:33 utc | 310

C’mon, people. It’s not that hard. While scrolling, you check the name first. If it’s Disiderata, Napolean, Vargas, Ed4, etc, you scroll past. You don’t read it and you SURE AS FUCK don’t give these narcissists any attention by RESPONDING. Rule #1, as old as the Interwebs: Don’t feed the trolls. Let them whither from a lack of attention.

Posted by: Zippy the Pinhead | Aug 19 2024 9:41 utc | 311

I’m just as guilty as the lot of you. I often sroll past Deep South’s or Milites’s excellent technical updates to see the next phase in the flane war. It proves to me we haven’t seen the horrors of real war since 1865 or so. Still just a game.

Posted by: Wisco | Aug 19 2024 9:44 utc | 312

“Moon Of Alabama was opened as an independent, open forum for members of the Whiskey Bar community.”
That became the MoA community. Since I started hitting the trolls that were destroying these Kursk threads, the Nafo talking point they have been told to push here is “cult’.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 19 2024 8:28 utc | 304
Cult? So? Who the fuck cares what the trolls say? About ANYTHING. They could accuse you of farting pixie dust or Ukraine will take Moscow next week. Any and all things trolls say are untrue and, frankly, they don’t even really try to convince any more. To be honest, the troll quality around here has plummeted as the trolls simply try to tie up the thread. The last page, 201-300, took me barely five minutes to scroll through, as the troll droppings were so thick. But here we are, on 301, and there are some things to read. As SpareTruth said, DOS attack. You’re far better than they are, Peter. Even drunk. I would suggest ignoring them and just keep serving up what is most fervently wished for: quality geo-political commentary. That’s all I’m gonna say about it. Cheers!

Posted by: Zippy the Pinhead | Aug 19 2024 9:52 utc | 313

“Rule #1, as old as the Interwebs: Don’t feed the trolls. Let them whither from a lack of attention.”
Posted by: Zippy the Pinhead | Aug 19 2024 9:41 utc |
Unless you are a DittoHead, it’s not so easy to always tell the difference between a “troll” and a dissenter or true questioner of a dogma.

Posted by: Wisco | Aug 19 2024 9:53 utc | 314

Wisco | Aug 19 2024 9:44 utc | 319
If you read about war, the history of war, the cause of war for most of your life, you tend to get an understanding that war brings destruction of people destruction of families, destruction of countries.
How so many can become brainwashed to the extent they bring about the utter destruction to themselves, their families, their country as we have seen in Ukraine, but the brainwashed Ukroids now need to be destroyed because they are fighting for their right to kill Russians. The cookies Maidan …. but then Minsk II. Now anything wearing a uniform and bearing arms is killed while trying to kill Russians.
Its a bloody tragedy and the Empire of Lies, the Anglo American empire is directly responsible.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 19 2024 9:54 utc | 315

Yes. With the US more or less pulling out, the Brits look to be getting desperate now. Hard to tell how far they will go. Hitting the Kerch bridge, they either still want to gain control of Sevastopol or think hitting the bridge will help topple Putin and the Russian leadership.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 19 2024 8:56 utc | 307
Perhaps, being as piss-poor at making war as the British are, they think disabling the Kerch Bridge will have a material effect on their planned Zap incursion. I suspect it will not and the Zap incursion will be another Brit-planned strategic fuck up. But the Brits and maybe even the Ukies believe it.

Posted by: Zippy the Pinhead | Aug 19 2024 9:58 utc | 316

Armchair Warlord has an excellent X thread on Ukraine’s loss of multiple HIMARS launchers and a strike aircraft to take down one bridge that was replaced with a pontoon bridge within hours. The old joke of “I’ve got a bridge to sell you” is best directed at the AFU as they’re obviously willing to pay a huge price for nothing.
Meanwhile, the best an idiot NAFO could do was suggest those HIMARS launchers were inflatable decoys despite the drone showing them launching, driving back to their hideouts and then being destroyed.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Aug 19 2024 10:00 utc | 317

Anatomy of a Fiasco: The Bridge at Glushkovo

Late last week the Ukrainian command, seeing their offensive in Sudzha-Koronevo bog down, tried to expand the flanks of their salient into Russian territory in Kursk. Part of this was an attack on the Glushkovo district to the west.
The Glushkovo District is somewhat isolated from the Russian interior by the Seim River.
Having learned the wrong lessons from their 2022 counteroffensive in Kherson, the AFU command decided to try to induce a wholesale Russian withdrawal by attacking the bridges over the Seim.
The large road bridge at Glushkovo, the district center, would be their first target. As in Kherson two years ago, HIMARS fired on the bridge with GMLRS. As in Kherson two years ago, it was ineffective.
Unlike in Kherson two years ago, the Russians killed the HIMARS launcher.
That was Thursday afternoon. Undeterred, the Ukrainians pulled up two more HIMARS launchers and fired on the bridge again on Thursday night, potholing the span further and probably rendering it temporarily unusable.
The Russians killed those launchers too.
Still determined to down the bridge, the Ukrainians ordered up an airstrike. One of their MiG-29s hit the bridge with glide bombs, finally dropping the damaged span into the river.
The Russians tracked its return flight and killed it while it was refueling in Dnipropetrovsk.
But with the bridge down (and another one of the three damaged), presumably the Ukrainians were good to go – the Russian troops in the district were now isolated.
Right?
Well, no, because – plot twist – the district isn’t actually isolated. There’s no large river to the east.
Of course the Ukrainians had a plan to deal with this. They aren’t stupid. They ordered an attack into the area to seal off the open flank and trap the defenders against the river.
That attack resulted in the largest mass surrender of Ukrainian troops seen in Kursk to date.
As for the bridge, the Russians had a pontoon crossing up within hours to replace it. One which the AFU seems to have decided against trying to attack for now.
And for the moment, the Glushkovo District remains firmly in Russian hands.
https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1825252861099626714

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 19 2024 10:01 utc | 318

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 19 2024 10:01 utc | 326
LOL, nice!

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Aug 19 2024 10:03 utc | 319

@ Posted by: Victor | Aug 18 202416:08 utc
‘…Why do people’s panties get soaking wet, when their lords use “doctor”…’
One of the insidious gambits of trolls is the straw man attack on analysts who are perceived to have a wider reach than the specific thread and what’s more are probably not here to defend themselves.
Typical targets are cf. Ritter and Martynov. So again we have a typical limp wristed attempt at character assasination without the slightest attempt to address the content of what their victim writes.

Posted by: Another thing | Aug 19 2024 10:05 utc | 320

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 19 2024 9:54 utc | 322
The main reason that you are specifically targeted for verbal attacks by “the trolls”, and rhat you are defended by almost every single long-time MoA contributor and even many lurkers, is that you clearly recognize right and wrong, and you call out the bullshit that you see with gusto. It really is that simple.

Posted by: Wisco | Aug 19 2024 10:10 utc | 321

Peter AU1 | Aug 19 2024 9:29 utc | 316

“Re the Americans and the coming war in the Asia pacific. The other part of it is the huge money flows to the US from Australia”,

I reckon that the primary aim is the cash and transfer of assets to the US. I am not conviced that they will really want a “war” with China in the traditional manner. All those shipshape targets! So selling arms, moving troops and forces onto others territory in a newish form of colonialism (Empire building) are to allow the US/Zio mainline owners to continue to plunder as before. It is the THREAT of war, not the reality, that they want.
Note that the US “Mafia” are less bound by the “Omerta” or other forces, and are devolving into a series of individual groupings. Everyone for him or her (or they, whatever)-selves.
*****
Ukraine
I think it is a possibility that Russia may hit a non-NATO country’s landing fields, ie Romania, where F’16’s are stationed. This would not engage the NATO grouping, but could be educational for the US and UK.

Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 19 2024 10:13 utc | 322

Fred | Aug 19 2024 10:05 utc | 329
The was a post somewhere back in the thread that was not james. User name highjackers are pretty thick. I hd a bit of sleep and when I ran back through the thread, I saw one comment with my name that was not me. I gave up soon as I realized name hijackers and sockpuppets were operation and the name hijacker also hit me after I had closed down.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 19 2024 10:14 utc | 323

2022: “We’re waging an all-out economic and financial war on Russia. We will cause the collapse of the Russian economy.”
2024: No new money for Ukraine

Germany must cut back on military aid for Ukraine. According to the German government’s current budget planning, no new money is available for this with immediate effect. This is due to cost-cutting measures by the Chancellery and the Ministry of Finance. Although material that has already been approved will usually still be delivered, at the request of Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz additional applications from the Ministry of Defense will no longer be approved.

Those who think Germany has money still live in the 1980’s. I’d like to ask a question to those who remember what the last years of the USSR looked like. When you walk around in your city, do you sometimes get the feeling that you have seen this before?

Posted by: Passerby | Aug 19 2024 10:17 utc | 324

Ukraine
I think it is a possibility that Russia may hit a non-NATO country’s landing fields, ie Romania, where F’16’s are stationed. This would not engage the NATO grouping, but could be educational for the US and UK.
Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 19 2024 10:13 utc | 332

I’m still thinking that they may very well get their “education” from Iran first considering Bibi can’t stop provoking them.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Aug 19 2024 10:18 utc | 325

Forgive me if this has been posted already.
Perun’s analysis: Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive: The lessons and risks of Ukraine’s push into Russia
Reasonably fair I thought.

Posted by: The Accountant | Aug 19 2024 10:19 utc | 326

Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 19 2024 10:13 utc | 332
Romania is a Nato country.

Posted by: Mario | Aug 19 2024 10:23 utc | 327

336 – Clicked on it but it is over an hour long. In summary, what conclusions does he draw?

Posted by: Wielgus | Aug 19 2024 10:24 utc | 328

We need to get back to basics. Who is the “aggressor”? I think ot is US and NATO, not Russia.
Who is the “underdog”. I would say Russia, mainly because US spends more $$ on military than the next 10 countries combined. Ukraine vs Russia is really US vs Russia. Everyone who isn’t braindead knows that.

Posted by: Wisco | Aug 19 2024 10:28 utc | 329

Launching Orekhov offensive considering failure to reach the preset prerequisites would be a mistake, but we’ll see. Ukro insider channels also imply this.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 19 2024 8:51 utc | 306

When it starts, you will hear from Russian officials: no one could have expected this surprise assault…
Reinforcements to be sent in the foreseable, not so distant future. For the time being, troops on duty are called to stop the enemy offensive.
Later on, some general will get promoted amid talks of rampant corruption

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Aug 19 2024 10:33 utc | 330

Who is the “aggressor”? Who is the “underdog”.
Posted by: Wisco | Aug 19 2024 10:28 utc | 339

US definitely the aggressor. Russia was assumed to be the underdog, and the clowns-in-charge are making the same wrong assumption regarding Iran & China. FAFO.
Oh, and the “money spent” argument doesn’t fly when you look at ROI.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Aug 19 2024 10:34 utc | 331

Anyone who can read a map can clearly see that the US is the world’s biggest aggressor. Look how many military bases USA has around the world. Not rocket science.

Posted by: Wisco | Aug 19 2024 10:35 utc | 332

Passerby | Aug 19 2024 10:17 utc | 334
It is also said that Germany cannot actually make enough arms and ammunition to supply Ukraine and itself at the same time. The cash could possibly be found by soaking the German population more, it is the industrial production that is missing.

Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 19 2024 10:48 utc | 333

Mario | Aug 19 2024 10:23 utc | 337
“Romania is a Nato country.”
oops. But an “external” target is still a possibility, so might have to look further afield.

Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 19 2024 10:50 utc | 334

Posted by: Passerby | Aug 19 2024 10:17 utc | 334
Those who think Germany has money still live in the 1980’s. I’d like to ask a question to those who remember what the last years of the USSR looked like. When you walk around in your city, do you sometimes get the feeling that you have seen this before?

So many flashbacks of the late 80s! Lack of care in mundane matters (dirty streets, neglected infrastructure), ramped up ideology, total disconnect between leaders/functionaries and populace, tight control over media (mainstream at least), militarisation of society, leaders that are either octogenarian wrecks — yup, it’s all there!
But one thing is new: we now also have child-like leaders without experience in anything. You know them: Macron, Trudeau, Sunak, Baerbock, Marin, the WEF posse.
On a personal level: all is sarcasm or cynicism, nothing’s serious or sacred. In the West.

Posted by: Konami | Aug 19 2024 10:52 utc | 335

I havw this gut feeling that many posters here are unable to read maps.

Posted by: Wisco | Aug 19 2024 10:54 utc | 336

On Germany pulling out of the war on Russia in line with US

BERLIN, Aug 19 (Reuters) – Two German warships await orders from Berlin, their commander said, to determine whether next month they will be the first German naval vessels in decades to pass through the Taiwan Strait, drawing a rebuke from Beijing.
While the U.S. and other nations, including Canada, have sent warships through the narrow strait in recent weeks, it would be the German navy’s first passage through the strait since 2002.

https://www.reuters.com/world/german-warships-await-orders-crossing-disputed-taiwan-strait-2024-08-19/
Germany is fully aboard the genocide in Palestine and has been echoing American stuff on China. Pulling out of the war on Russia is likely a move for the war on China.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 19 2024 10:58 utc | 337

PETER AU1:
You aren’t the lone ranger who makes spelling mistakes.
;D

Posted by: Wisco | Aug 19 2024 10:59 utc | 338

Wisco | Aug 19 2024 10:59 utc | 349
I certainly make more than most though.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 19 2024 11:01 utc | 339

>> I think it is a possibility that Russia may hit a non-NATO country’s landing fields, ie Romania, where F’16’s are stationed. This would not engage the NATO grouping, but could be educational for the US and UK.
>> Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 19 2024 10:13 utc | 332
Romania IS IN NATO lol.

Posted by: ivanislav | Aug 19 2024 11:04 utc | 340

While Russia have apparently taken Novgorod (“New York”), the last bridge over the Seym has reportedly been destroyed.
This isn’t quite Dieppe, where our forces retreated after less than six hours. More like the Ardennes Offensive, which also achieved complete surprise but stopped after 8 days.
This has been going on for 13 days and I’m not completely certain it’s stopped yet.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 19 2024 11:09 utc | 341

@The Accountant | Aug 19 2024 10:19 utc | 336
I’m not wasting another hour or even 5 minutes watching “Mister Power Point” regurgitate Western talking points. Two years ago he quoted the likes of Oryx to tell us how deep in trouble Russia is and how good the Western weapons systems are. I think he even mentioned once he works for some Australian weapons manufacturer or something like that? Yeah, no, not wasting my time.

Posted by: Roland | Aug 19 2024 11:10 utc | 342

Posted by: Roland | Aug 19 2024 11:10 utc | 353
Pretty good summarization of Perun. He made a lot of his analysis based on Oryx, which basically gave a 3x factor for RUAF losses and 0.3x for AFU losses. The methods of Oryx loss counting included:
-same tank filmed from 3x directions and released as 3x RUAF loss
-AFU tanks reported as RUAF losses (they used the same tank/AFVs mostly for the first 12 months)
-Oryx conveniently stopped its reporting a week or two after the AFU counter-offensive began in 2023. Guess that was the time when AFU Warsaw Pact equipment ran out and mixing was no longer possible, then they had to mostly report Stryker and Bradley and Leopard losses, not suitable for employing US state department (or US weapon companies)

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 19 2024 11:23 utc | 343

@unimperator | Aug 19 2024 11:23 utc | 354
Correct. Also ArmchairWarlord’s assessment that Oryx ended their stunt with the end of the US fiscal year 2023 somehow rings true to me. Well, who knows.
I guess we somehow should be thankful for how deluded these freaks are in their analyses. It leads to all kinds of miscalculations down the line often to the detriment of the West economically and militarily.

Posted by: Roland | Aug 19 2024 11:38 utc | 344

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 19 2024 10:01 utc | 326
Wow! But hey! The downing of the bridge made into the western news for a few seconds so 3 himars and 1 mig-29 destroyed plus lots of troops surrendering seem like a nice price to pay for a Jewish comedian leading a nation of morons into the ground.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Aug 19 2024 11:55 utc | 345

19.08.2024 (13:25)
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (19 August 2024)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
In Volchansk and Liptsy directions, the Sever Group of Forces inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the 43rd Mechanised Brigade, 92nd Assault Brigade, 36th Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) near Staritsa, Okhrimovka, and Volchansk (Kharkov region).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 170 Ukrainian troops, one tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, two armoured fighting vehicles, two motor vehicles, one 152-mm D-20 howitzer, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, two 122-mm D-30 howitzers, and one 122-mm BM-21 Grad MLRS vehicle. One depot storing UAVs was wiped out.
The Zapad Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and positions, and inflicted fire damage on the 43rd, 63rd, 67th, 69th mechanised brigades of the AFU, 1st National Guard Brigade near Glyshkovka (Kharkov region), Nevskoye, Stelmakhovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Grigorovka, and Torskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic). Two counter-attacks launched by assault groups of the AFU 63rd Mechanised Brigade and 117th Territorial Defence Brigade were repelled.
The AFU losses amounted to up to 535 Ukrainian troops, two tanks, three infantry fighting vehicles, seven Kazak armoured fighting vehicles, five pick-up trucks, one U.S.-made 155-mm M198 howitzer, one 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, and one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system. Seven ammunition depots were also destroyed.
The Yug Group of Forces improved the tactical situation, liberated the Vyemka railway station in Donetsk People’s Republic and engaged manpower and hardware of the 24th and 72nd mechanised brigades, 27th Rocket Artillery Brigade, 72nd Air Assault Brigade of the AFU as well as the 116th Territorial Defence Brigade close to Konstantinovka, Chasov Yar, Yelizavetovka, Kucherov Yar, and Razliv (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 570 Ukrainian troops and six motor vehicles. In counter-battery warfare, Russian troops hit one Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery system, U.S.-made 155-mm M777 and M198 howitzers, two UK-made 155-mm FH-70 howitzers, one 152-mm D-20 howitzer, and two 122-mm D-30 howitzers were destroyed.
The Tsentr Group of Forces has one of the largest settlements in the Dzerzhinsk agglomeration of Artyomovo (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Russian troops hit the 47th Mechanised Brigade, 95th Air Assault Brigade of the AFU, and the 109th Territorial Defence Brigade close to Rozovka, Druzhba, Novgorodskoye, and Ptichye (Donetsk People’s Republic). ?? Eight counter-attacks launched by the 53rd and 150th mechanised brigades, 68th Jaeger Brigade, 142nd Infantry Brigade of the AFU, the 14th and 15th National Guard brigades, and Lyut Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian National Police were repelled.
The AFU losses included more than 495 Ukrainian troops, two tanks, one Kazak armoured fighting vehicle, four motor vehicles, one 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, one 152-mm Giatsint-B gun, and one 122-mm D-30 howitzer.
The Vostok Group of Forces delivered strikes against manpower and hardware of the 72nd Mechanised Brigade, 58th Motorised Infantry Brigade of the AFU, 106th and 125th territorial defence brigades near Ugledar, Prechistovka, Velikaya Novosyolka (Donetsk People’s Republic) and Dolinka (Zaporozhye region).
The AFU suffered losses of up to 90 Ukrainian troops, three motor vehicles, one 155-mm Bogdana self-propelled artillery system, one 152-mm D-30 howitzer, and three Bukovel-AD electronic warfare stations. Three AFU field ammunition depots were destroyed.
The Dnepr Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on the 65th Mechanised Brigade, 128th Mountain Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, 39th Coastal Defence Brigade near Novodanilovka, Kamenskoye (Zaporozhye region) and Tyaginka (Kherson region).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 75 Ukrainian troops, eight motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, and one 122-mm D-30 howitzer. One ammunition depot has been destroyed.
Operational-Tactical Aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have engaged clusters of AFU manpower and military hardware in 147 areas during the day.
Air defence systems have shot down one French-made Hammer guided aerial bomb, 26 U.S.-made HIMARS MLRS projectiles, and 49 unmanned aerial vehicles.
In total, 639 airplanes and 282 helicopters, 30,161 unmanned aerial vehicles, 575 air defence missile systems, 17,340 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,412 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 13,415 field artillery guns and mortars as well as 24,919 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

Posted by: Rhymerez | Aug 19 2024 11:57 utc | 346

Stonebird @ 332

I think it is a possibility that Russia may hit a non-NATO country’s landing fields, ie Romania, where F’16’s are stationed. This would not engage the NATO grouping, but could be educational for the US and UK.

What in the ex-Warsaw Pact is still non-NATO, Moldova? At this point, post Kursk, NATO or Non NATO does it matter? I’m totally serious. Article 5 isn’t automatic nor obligatory, it has to be called, then deliberated, then voted. Let them deliberate and vote, and live with the consequences. Bet a round of beers NATO’s red lines fall back as practically as Russia’s.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 19 2024 11:58 utc | 347

guess we somehow should be thankful for how deluded these freaks are in their analyses. It leads to all kinds of miscalculations down the line often to the detriment of the West economically and militarily.
Posted by: Roland | Aug 19 2024 11:38 utc | 355

That’s their “original sin”. They believe their own propaganda regarding relative losses and then use it as a foundation for all their other subsequently (and supremely) flawed analysis.
Early on in the SMO I started following just about everyone reporting on the war and within a short period of time it wasn’t difficult to determine who was full of shit and who provided more accurate and balanced information. It simply amazes me to this day that it isn’t glaringly obvious to so many others. The NAFO’s lack of critical thinking skills and self-awareness is quite breathtaking. I *still* see the most infamous NAFO X accounts republishing those laughably ridiculous UKMOD stats like they’re gospel.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Aug 19 2024 12:06 utc | 348

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 19 2024 11:58 utc | 360
Yes, I think you’re right.
First of all NATO is formally a defensive treaty and has already been stretched beyond believable.
In order to trigger art. 5 RF must attack a NATO country or a false flag must be fabricated and then, as you noticed, art. 5 is far less than automatic.

Posted by: Mario | Aug 19 2024 12:08 utc | 349

The most stubborn in Ukraine are beginning to open one eye, the hangover must come, but for now only Akhmetov is straining not to lose the last crystal vase :
“In case you haven’t noticed, our situation on the Pokrovsky direction is not catastrophic yet, but definitely critical, which may soon become a “cold shower” for society after the Kursk euphoria.
– The Kursk offensive in the Pokrovsky direction did not have the desired effect.
The enemy not only did not withdraw his troops from Pokrovskoye, but also strengthened them in certain directions;
– The occupants️ are located less than ten kilometers from Pokrovsk;
– The enemy cannot take Novogrodovka, but is trying to bypass it from the side of Mykolaivka and reach the Karlovka-Pokrovsk highway near Selidovo.
– The number of attackers approaching the Ukrainian brigades exceeds the personnel of the AFU units several times…”

Akhmetov is essentially issuing an ultimatum to Zelensky. He is practically losing his last monetary assets in Ukraine. А Zelensky promised him!
Losing the Pokrovsky mine and factory is like death for Akhmetov. And it is not surprising at all that Akhmetov is said to have recently given Zelensky an ultimatum – peace talks, or he starts investing in opposition activities to the fullest again, both in Ukraine and through lobbyists in the West.
At stake is the collapse or the life of his business empire, which he has spent so long building. But the opposite is happening, even though every day according to Syrsky “1000 hectares and at least 30 villages”, Russia has withdrawn 7,000 people from Donbass, and then all of a sudden this…

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/106432

Posted by: Down South | Aug 19 2024 12:08 utc | 350

❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Kursk Direction: Destruction of All Bridges in Hlushkovo District and Fighting in Sumy District
What is known as of 2:00 PM on August 19, 2024
In Kursk Region, heavy clashes continue on several sections of the front. Russian forces are striking drone and air strikes on columns and positions of AFU equipment, destroying armored vehicles and manpower.
🔻In Hlushkovo District, the situation is most difficult. In the morning, Ukrainian aviation destroyed the last bridge in the area across the Seim river in the settlement of Karyzh.
Thus, the evacuation of the population and the supply of the grouping of Russian troops now entirely depends on the number of boats and the deployment of a sufficient number of pontoons. The AFU are creating conditions for preparing a bridgehead before the offensive in this area.
🔻In Korenevo District, the enemy, apparently, made another attempt to enter the village, but was unsuccessful.
Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are operating on the road between Korenevo and Pogrebki, ambushing passing vehicles.
🔻In Sumy District, the operational-tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces delivered bomb strikes on AFU positions in the forest south of Kosytsia.
The advance of the enemy from the settlement of Agronom towards Russkaya Konopelka is noted, on the way to which a column of AFU armored vehicles was attacked by an FPV drone crew.
The enemy continues to post videos from the eastern part of Sumy, this time near the administration building.

https://t.me/rybar_in_english/17095

Posted by: Down South | Aug 19 2024 12:10 utc | 351

19.08.2024 (14:30)
Russian Defence Ministry report on repelling an invasion attempt of the AFU on the territory of the Russian Federation (19 August 2024)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to repel the AFU attempt to invade the territory of the Russian Federation.
Units of the Sever Group of Forces supported by Army Aviation and artillery fire conduct reconnaissance and search operations to locate and eliminate small enemy sabotage groups in forest belts attempting to get deeper into the Russian territory to the south of Skrylevka and Sheptukhovka.
Attacks launched by assault detachments in the direction of Olgovka, Russkoye Porechnoye, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye were repelled. The AFU losses amounted to one tank, one infantry fighting vehicle, two armoured fighting vehicles, and more than 25 Ukrainian troops, four AFU servicemen were taken prisoner.
Aviation and artillery strikes as well as actions of defending troops inflicted losses on manpower and hardware clusters of the AFU 22nd, 61st, 115th mechanised brigades, and 80th Air Assault Brigade near Borki, Bogdanovka, Vishnyovka, Viktorovka, Kositsa, Lyubimovka, Melovoy, Snagost, west of Martynovka, and south east of Korenevo.
Operational-Tactical Aviation delivered strikes at manpower and hardware concentration areas of reserves of the AFU 82nd Air Assault Brigade, 103rd, and 129th territorial defence brigades near Basovka, Vorozhba, Kruzhok, Miropolye, Novaya Sech, and Sadki (Sumy region).
Over the past 24 hours, the AFU losses amounted to more than 330 Ukrainian troops and 27 units of hardware, including four tanks, one infantry fighting vehicle, three armoured personnel carriers, 19 armoured fighting vehicles, eight motor vehicles, two artillery guns, and three mortars.
Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to up to 3,800 Ukrainian troops, 54 tanks, 26 infantry fighting vehicles, 48 armoured personnel carriers, 281 armoured fighting vehicles, 123 motor vehicles, 27 artillery guns, five SAM launchers, seven MLRS launchers, including three of HIMARS system and one of MLRS system, five electronic warfare stations, as well as four units of engineering vehicles, including two counterobstacle vehicles and one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle.
The operation to neutralise the AFU units is in progress.

Posted by: Rhymerez | Aug 19 2024 12:13 utc | 352

For any Metallica fans:
https://t.me/WarRealTime/40104
add to U2, Penn, Clooney, and all the other CIA limited hangouts and cultural bait.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 19 2024 12:19 utc | 353

Sorry about my 367, but I’m having problems posting I think is fairly sesible. Suspect troll activity.

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Aug 19 2024 12:36 utc | 354

LightYearsFromHome | Aug 19 2024 11:58 utc | 360
Mario | Aug 19 2024 12:08 utc | 362
**
Although I may have got the vector of the Russian reply to NATO wrong, (bof, not the first time unfortunately!), I still think that Russia will/must find a way to dissuade any further attacks on Russia proper. Partly because the supply of arms and ammunition to and from Nato/Ukraine is slowly but surely drying up, and any diminuition of arms to Israel, takes the same amount away from those Ukraine can use. Partly to stop the incursions becoming a bad habit.
Maybe a lot left in storage but fabrication is no longer a US/EU strong point.
*
So what areas are left? Kalingrad and the Baltics (which NATO is trying to make into a “NATO” lake). Further afield into Syria? Asymetrical ? (- although given the US’s financial situation I am sure they may be running out of suckers to buy Bonds). The Mediterrainian fleets? As many of the ships that went to supress Yemen, had to leave because of lack of missiles (both defense or attack), it is even a question how they would all be resupplied if they attack Iran.
**
Either bank on the inevitability of a US collapse, or dissuade more “adventures”. What a choice.

Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 19 2024 12:50 utc | 355

NATO fighting hard to win the troll war. Too bad that’s all they can fucking do, other than drag the world down into nuclear fire. Honestly I think the constant ridicule here of the idiocy emanating from NATO generals and capitals might just be pricking the egos of the peacocks, unused to having their vainglorious idiocy mocked and derided. There’s also the whole imagineering angle which, as I have expounded on in the past, NATO places much stock in. You see, the mighty narrative is important to them, so important it trumps good decision making.

The free flow of information is the only safeguard against tyranny. The once-chained people whose leaders at last lose their grip on information flow will soon burst with freedom and vitality, but the free nation gradually constricting its grip on public discourse has begun its rapid slide into despotism. Beware of he who would deny you access to information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master.

Fellow humans, good luck. The stupids are in charge.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Aug 19 2024 13:07 utc | 356

In a 15 Aug article titled US has Ukraine’s back in Kursk incursion M.K. Bhadrakumar writes:
“The best spin that pro-Russian analysts could think of is that the Kremlin had set a trap actually so that Ukraine’s soldiers could once again be put into the meat grinder. It Is hogwash. It’s impossible to cover up the naked truth that Russian military has been caught with its pants down.”
Do “pro-Russian analysts” include b, who 3 days earlier in his “Ukraine SitRep: The Kursk Incursion Was Stopped” article, quoted The Economist in bold letters:
“The danger is we’ll fall into a trap, and Russia will grind our teeth down.”
and then agreed with the trap assessment by opining:
“It seems to me that this is exactly what has now happened. It was utterly foreseeable.”
Bhadrakumar added that “Ukrainian forces are creating a “security zone” inside Russia near the border with Ukraine” and “Ukraine is internationalising its operations in the Kursk Region, on a parallel track, it is also expanding the operations to include the oblasts adjacent to Kursk.” which contradicts b’s claim 3 days earlier that the Kursk incursion had already been stopped.
So which is it? As of today (19 Aug) has the Kursk incursion been stopped, or is it still expanding?

Posted by: Mark Mosby | Aug 19 2024 13:34 utc | 357

Fellow humans, good luck. The stupids are in charge.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Aug 19 2024 13:07 utc | 370
I think there is a great deal in what you say here. The troll activity here on this MoA thread is most likely a symptom of NATO despair at the general progress of the real fighting-particularly in the Donbas

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Aug 19 2024 13:39 utc | 358

Posted by: Mario | Aug 19 2024 12:08 utc | 362
NATO depends on the unity of 32 nations. It’s all well and good to talk smack about fighting Russia if you believe that the Russians are corrupt bumbling idiots and war with Russia would be essentially a safari to kill Russians from a great distance. However you’re going to have a hard time convincing the French, Germans and the like to go toe to toe with Russian infantry under a steady rain of steel.
I think this Kursk operation was simply a live fire NATO led experiment to see just how well the Russians reacted to a bole out of the blue invasion. It doesn’t look good for NATO tactics and if I can see that so can the French, Germans and the like. I sure as hell wouldn’t sign up for such an adventure and I can’t imagine the French Germans and the like would either. It’s not like the Russians haven’t seen these tactics before … the Germans attacked in a very similar manner and the Russians learned to deal with those tactics back in 1942.
You’re not going to fool them twice.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Aug 19 2024 13:42 utc | 359

Re #365
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Aug 19 2024 13:07 utc | 370 SHOULD BE 362

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Aug 19 2024 13:43 utc | 360

Posted by: Mark Mosby | Aug 19 2024 13:34 utc | 365
It is pretty clear the British designed the Kursk attack, and Ukraine alone can’t do such an attack without Nato troops embedded. Dima on MS said Ukraine always undergoes negotiations with the FUKUS alliance before they launch any offensive.
The British get PR headlines for any offensive taking Russian villages, and Ukraine makes the offensive in exchange for more goodies, weapons and money.
The ‘security zone’ is just a poor attempt of trolling by Zelensky. Obviously, transferring and getting more and more reserves to hold and expand some villages in Kursk region is not a very cost-effective way of creating a buffer. We know RUAF at this point is exactly hoping that AFU sends all its available reserves to Kursk to reduce the AFU offensive potential in the Donbass. And so far Ukraine/British seem to be doing just that, chasing PR victories.
The criticism toward RU side would probably be failure to pre-evacuate civilians Glushkovo area, which is now tough due to the bridges being destroyed. But looking at the map it would be little trouble for AFU to take that area.
It ultimately comes down to how much forces both sides have and how well can they be supplied. The AFU does have an advantage if they really want to take Glushkovo area. They tried initially from east past Snagost, which is where RUAF scored a victory and captured a large amount of POWs.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 19 2024 13:45 utc | 361

“Let us not forget: The majority of the Bible and doctrinal Christianity is straight up stolen from Pagan and other previous religions and customs. Everything from The Christ to Christmas Day. It’s a totally cribbed religion with a bunch of evil shit thrown in (OT) for good measure. Name me any canonical Christian precept or practice and I can easily point to a preceding religion from which it was almost assuredly “borrowed”…”
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Aug 19 2024 4:23 utc | 259
Agreed.
Jesus and his crucifixion’s was just a reenactment of Plato’s The Pheado that describes Socrates committing suicide (drinking hemlock) when Athens would have let him become an exile.
Socrates last words were, “Crito, I owe the sacrifice of a rooster to Asklepios; will you pay that debt and not neglect to do so?” “I will make it so,” said Crito…”
A sacrifice to Asklepios, the demi God of doctors, was to give offering for healing-so Socrates was essentially declaring-“death is a healing of life”-ie the afterlife exists and is better than ‘mortal’ life.
That’s the essential kernel of Christianity right there.

Posted by: canuck | Aug 19 2024 13:58 utc | 362

Mark Mosby | Aug 19 2024 13:34 utc | 365
I don’t think there’s much doubt that Russia were caught with pants down – witness the early videos of oblivious Russian civilian cars being shot off the roads.
“As of today (19 Aug) has the Kursk incursion been stopped, or is it still expanding?”
I think the word to describe the situation is “fraught”.
But things seem a lot more cheerful in Donbass.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 19 2024 13:59 utc | 363

PS – any chance of staying on Ukraine and not bringing personal hobbies here?

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 19 2024 14:01 utc | 364

I havw this gut feeling that many posters here are unable to read maps.
Posted by: Wisco | Aug 19 2024 10:54 utc | 342
Same here. Maps show us that Ukraine has halted the Russian offensive for years now, and barflies are still whistling Dixie.
At least Putin begged for land he can’t take, in exchange for a ceasefire.

Posted by: Napoleon | Aug 19 2024 14:11 utc | 365

If I was stavka, I would send the minimum of troops to Sudzha, and double down on Pokrovsk.

Posted by: Passerby | Aug 19 2024 14:17 utc | 366

That’s the essential kernel of Christianity right there.
Posted by: canuck | Aug 19 2024 13:58 utc | 369
Funny, I thought it was the whole forgiveness of past transgressions thing that distinguished Christianity from pagan religions of the time, which tended towards the vindictive side.

Posted by: Johnny Guitarman | Aug 19 2024 14:19 utc | 367

“The American Worker replaced by outsourcing/freetrade to keep the Favored Few skimming and Capital crushing Labor. Basic economics, the reason behind money-printing/counterfeiting, borrowing and interest suppression. When the end comes will all the Private Jets get out?”
Posted by: kupkee | Aug 18 2024 23:45 utc | 206
Agreed.
The only input element that you missed in your magisterial, pithy description was: ‘illegal aliens” allowed to come into the US was another dagger thrown into the dying corpse- “American Worker”

Posted by: canuck | Aug 19 2024 14:22 utc | 368

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 19 2024 13:45 utc | 368
Very reasonable, congratulations on not exploding at, or denouncing as irrelevant, the premises of the post to which you responded.

Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 19 2024 14:29 utc | 369

Maps show us that Ukraine has halted the Russian offensive for years now, and barflies are still whistling Dixie.
Posted by: Napoleon | Aug 19 2024 14:11 utc | 372
You must be looking at them backwards then, since Russia has recently advanced quite rapidly on the eastern front.

Posted by: Johnny Guitarman | Aug 19 2024 14:40 utc | 370

History is always instructive as to the merits of invading Russia. Napoleon along with his 750,000 man army made it all the way to Moscow. In between murdering and looting the locals, the great man offered Czar Alexander the chance to negotiate. Alexander’s answer was to set Moscow on fire and retreat. Napolean foolishly stayed in Moscow for a few more weeks of looting then pulled out with the arrival of winter. The Russian cossacks and peasants then went to work on Napolean’s loot laden 750,000 man army with the help of the full onset of winter. The end result? Napolean had to sneak out dressed as a woman with his 1500 person personal entourage. Eventually 30,000 others straggled, emaciated and defeated. 95% of his army and most their camp followers ended up as wolf food out on the steppes of Russia.

Posted by: 24ouncer | Aug 19 2024 14:40 utc | 371

Tom_Q_Collins | Aug 19 2024 4:23 utc | 259
canuck | Aug 19 2024 13:58 utc | 369
Sorry but I dont think either of you understand the basis of Christianity. However, this is not the thread to discuss.
Just will pass on one thought, that the basis of Christianity is found in Genesis Chapter 1 (ie creation of man and woman in God’s Image and Likeness and all creation is good). Whereas the counter to Christianity is found in Genesis Chapter 2 starting with the introduction of the yahwey entity in Verse 4 as lord god. It was the yahwey entity that reformed nd degraded God’s creation especially giving mankind a body of stone and introducing evil into creation by the tree of knowledge of duplicity (good and evil). Christianity is about salvation 1) from yahwey entity’s degradation of body and soil and 2) by our resurrection in the body created for us by God in his Image and Likeness.
What you folks are focused on are the liturgical externalities that have clouded the Message.

Posted by: Jerr | Aug 19 2024 14:43 utc | 372

“That’s the essential kernel of Christianity right there.”
Posted by: canuck | Aug 19 2024 13:58 utc | 369
“Funny, I thought it was the whole forgiveness of past transgressions thing that distinguished Christianity from pagan religions of the time, which tended towards the vindictive side.”
Posted by: Johnny Guitarman | Aug 19 2024 14:19 utc | 374
Well you have a point-let me rephrase myself
The Cruxificxtion angle-Christ dies people who believe in him can go to heaven was the ‘kernel’ the ‘carrot’ that Priests, deacons and reverends preached to their flocks-“the meek will inherit the earth”-“It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for someone who is rich to enter the kingdom of God.” and other such nonsense.
In order of course to keep the Peasants down they created ressentiment in the Hoi Polloi against the rich nobles-the Peasants knowing that the rich could never enter Heaven as they would.
The Muslim religion, for warriors, is a much more straight forward- do some martyrdom and you get scores of nubile virgins girls wanting to mount you -same kind of thing.
1. As far a I know nobody got to heaven until after Jesus died-with the notable exceptions of Enoch and Elijah .

Posted by: canuck | Aug 19 2024 14:44 utc | 373

Peter AU1 | 305
Excellent string of comments related to the possible Zaporizhzhya front started here by Peter that then triggered a flood of off-topic posts. I suggest everyone go back and read them.
I particularly agree that it has always been about Crimea and its “Mediterranean” like climate. Who controls the west and would be interested in a second home like that?
Also one may recall in the last grand Ukrainian “counter offensive” that was ground to dust, there was an almost suicidal, mad push towards Crimea right through minefields. They took monstrous losses.

Posted by: Moonraker | Aug 19 2024 14:45 utc | 374

You must be looking at them backwards then, since Russia has recently advanced quite rapidly on the eastern front.
Posted by: Johnny Guitarman | Aug 19 2024 14:40 utc | 377

Don’t fall for the troll bait. It’s a war of attrition so the map argument is pure cope.
Honestly, too, the RF is advancing simply because the AFU’s in headlong retreat in the Donbass and they have to chase them to attrit them. They’re much happier having the AFU dutifully marching towards them into successive meat grinders, with Kursk being just the latest and most costly yet. The RF absolutely loves the AFU bringing their best toys to the front for Lancets & Iskanders.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Aug 19 2024 15:00 utc | 375

Who controls the west and would be interested in a second home like that?
Posted by: Moonraker | Aug 19 2024 14:45 utc | 381

Yep, the west has had a hard-on for Crimea forever… and it’s been Russian forever and isn’t likely to change. I’d argue that even WWIII with nukes wouldn’t change that, since Russia actually has modernized nukes and real shelters.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Aug 19 2024 15:04 utc | 376

@379, @380.
The essence of the New Testament is “love thy neighbor” more your neighbor is your enemy, and that zygote who is aborted.
Further not one word of the Old is removed, in particular “do no harm” and “absolute truth”.
Center on the Creator, and the Redeemer, sin entered the human race when the serpent convinced them they had power to ignore the Creator.
The Creator worked with love for all creation, expects return in sharing

Posted by: paddy | Aug 19 2024 15:10 utc | 377

Niu York is taken by the Russians, plus all of the 2014-era fortifications to its east (the last of the 2014 defensive line), and Russian troops are already storming Neplivka – just south of Toretsk. At the same time both coal mines and related slag heaps just east of Toretsk that form the two ends of the Toretsk defensive line have been taken by the Russians and they are now advancing into Toretsk itself. Then we have the defences in front of Pokrovsk starting to give way, both to the west and to the south. And the southern Konstyantynivka is already half taken by the Russians, who are now at the main road (the one to Ugledar) in the middle of the town. While Zelensky pours more troops and equipment into the Kursk firebag.
The collapse of the Donetsk front is happening a lot faster, and at an accelerating pace, than I predicted. I thought that at best Niu York, Toretsk and Pokrovsk fall (and never even thought of Selydove, Kurakhove and Konstyantynivka) before the rains in mid-October or perhaps a little early. Now we are looking at the possibility of early September – leaving a good 6-7 weeks for Russian offensive operations before the rains set in. At this rate when does Ugledar fall and the way to Urozhaine from the east and north open up?
A winter campaign over the relatively open land between Donetsk and the Dniepr, with Ukraine powered-down and with dwindling manpower, supplies, equipment, and morale would then be a possibility. Retreating in the middle of winter without proper equipment and significantly on foot is a recipe for collapse and/or a Turkey shoot. MIG/CIA/Zelensky and their mad cap schemes (attack on a nuclear power plant, a dirty bomb..?) would then be at their most dangerous.

Posted by: Roger | Aug 19 2024 15:27 utc | 378

Only one of 2 possibilities I see.
1) Russia planning on multi front, multi national, full on war against NATO in the near future, and currently tying loose end up (i.e. Azerbaijan, Turkey, Syria etc)
OR
2) They are actually weak sauce as they appear, all hype and zero military means to defend their Nation.
Any Nation that allows foreign tanks (especially German, UK for Russia) roaming onto their national borderlands and continues to do so for now, going into weeks, with a “counter terror” defense campaign as a measured military response, simply means:
They got nothing.
Been an interesting fairy tale for 2 years. But the story is an obvious fantasy. Same as US, only card they have is Nukes.
They can play those, or keep whining.
Looks like more endless Russian whining with zero military deterrence.
Yup, Russia, you’re right… you’re at war with UK, US, NATO.
So, do something about it, that actually protects your own national security, or STFU, and drudge along like poor Afghan sandal wearing sand warriors defending your singular villages endlessly for the next 20 years. In either event, your “red lines” are old propaganda films by now.
There is no grand 12D chess here. Just stupidity redefined as “strategic patience”
(No, the US West axis IS NOT collapsing anytime soon, they may do what they always do, redistribute wealth, bad for bottom dwellers, will “look” like a crash, but West will go on for several more decades, like it or not).
Even as NATO tromps across Russian soil, taking and killing civilians as hostages and dead meat, Russia touts how peace offer still on table:
https://tass.com/politics/1830971
Putin’s proposal on Ukraine valid, talks impossible at this time — Kremlin aide
The timeframe for any potential talks “depends on the situation, including on the battlefield,” Yury Ushakov said
“According to Ushakov, Putin’s proposals “have not been annulled but at the moment the negotiation process is completely inappropriate.”
Not “annulled” but “inappropriate” at this time. Oh… poor NATO, will have to wait a little longer for Russia’s capitulation of not destroying Ukraine as they are unable and incompetent to secure their nation state from invasion.
The announcement of capitulation of leaving Ukraine intact and functioning, is delayed.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 19 2024 15:29 utc | 379

@Posted by: TJandTheBear | Aug 19 2024 15:00 utc | 382
This is not a controlled retreat, which means that Ukrainian troops are in the open without air support, anti-aircraft protection, nor EW (which Russia has recently been destroying at a fast rate) and counter-battery systems. That makes for a Turkey shoot for Russian air power, drones and artillery. A bit like the road of death out of Kuwait for the Iraqis, but multiplied.
It also means that the Ukrainians don’t get a chance to dig in and form a defensive line against the Russians, hence the sudden chunks of territory falling as the Russians repeatedly threaten to surround the Ukrainians. The Russians have gained some mobility in a more fluid front line environment.
And yes, the Russians are also happy to have Zelensky throw more men and machinery into the Kursk firebag.

Posted by: Roger | Aug 19 2024 15:33 utc | 380

As far a I know nobody got to heaven until after Jesus died-with the notable exceptions of Enoch and Elijah .
canuck @ 380
****************************
Last post for me on this canuck, too OT.
Three points
1) old testament or tanhk is really not Christian scripture but spirtual reading because it is about the religion of the yahwey entity and its followers. So I don’t know where Enoch and Elijah went.
2) Christianity is about salvation through resurrection of our body in the Image and Likeness God created us and life everlasting in God’s Presence.
3)Modern Christianity has become a form of yahweyism. For example the roman catholic church (and many other protestant churches)now espouses that the yahwey entity is part of the same Divine Nature as Christ. It is not. So within the space of a few decades, most christians have been transformed into believers of the yahweh entity; gohlems unfortunately forever.

Posted by: Jerr | Aug 19 2024 15:33 utc | 381

Looks like Russia is denuclearizing itself.
https://istories.media/news/2024/08/18/kosmicheskuyu-pekhotu-brosili-na-oboronu-kurskoi-oblasti
Seriously, no other explanation for this than Vladimir Putin and Valery Gerasimov being CIA’s agents.

Posted by: Pâte | Aug 19 2024 15:34 utc | 382

@Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 19 2024 15:29 utc | 386
When you are winning you keep with the same strategy, as China has so patiently done over the past decades. Both the Chinese and Russians want to win in a world fit to live in, WW3 as you propose would be suicidal given the mindset of elements in the Western oligarchy and MIC. Even Germany has now halted any new financial and military support for Ukraine, and the latter’s collapse has to be managed in such a way to remove Zelensky and his MI6/CIA/Bandera nutter buddies without them triggering some major destructive war crime.
Israel is best taken out slowly, through economic, financial and demographic (by mass emigration of the liberal zionists) collapse. At least for the next decade there are too many Christian and Jewish Zionists in the US, and their bought and paid for shills to not trigger an uncontrolled response to a threatened Israeli defeat. The nutters in charge of Israel actually want a major conflagration, its why they keep provoking, as they know that they are finished otherwise. Yes, the genocide in Gaza is horrific, but both Russia and China have to manage the bigger picture.
The West already lost Georgia, and Azerbaijan (as well as Malaysia) wants to join the BRI. Armenia can then be dealt with with patience, as will be the clearing of Syria and Iraq of US occupiers. With China driving fast down the road of removing oil from its transport system, and focusing more and more on domestic and local supplies of oil and gas (Russia, Central Asia, and Iran perhaps with a pipeline through Afghanistan) the Middle East generally becomes less important.
Europe is also slowly declining into irrelevance, with its position in the new green and software technologies utterly pathetic. The industrial heart of Germany (cheap energy dependent car manufacturing, tool making and heavy industry) is slowly being ripped out with no replacement available. Italy has been in long term decline for decades, as has the UK. France has lost the colonial pickings from its West-African neo-Empire.
The taming of the ex global hegemon and all of its vassals will take decades, not years. A timeframe that the Chinese, Russians and Iranians are comfortable with.

Posted by: Roger | Aug 19 2024 15:54 utc | 383

At least there is some good news. Pokrovsk on the brink of falling.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 19 2024 16:04 utc | 384

Posted by: aristodemos | Aug 19 2024 3:36 utc
Thx for the response. I will reply in the open thread when I have time to do so.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Aug 19 2024 16:14 utc | 385

@392
Wash Post say despite fake successes in Kursk…..
Trust no news from USA or EU

Posted by: paddy | Aug 19 2024 16:15 utc | 386

RE: “Seriously, no other explanation for this than Vladimir Putin and Valery Gerasimov being CIA’s agents.”
Posted by: Pâte | Aug 19 2024 15:34 utc | 389
You don’t have to be a “CIA” agent to be weak sauce. Most are perfectly capable to of loving money and power without being a CIA asset. Just saying.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 19 2024 16:17 utc | 387

Posted by: Roger | Aug 19 2024 15:27 utc | 385
The loss of those coal mines may be more significant to destroying Ukraines energy potential than another few rounds of missile attacks. Coal is still needed for the thermal plants so it’s freezing time for Kviv or replace with expensive imports.
Also I saw a comment that they’re owned by some oligarch who probably pledged them as collateral in exchange for a yacht or two from BlackRock.
Oops.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Aug 19 2024 16:33 utc | 388

Only one of 2 possibilities I see. …
Any Nation that allows foreign tanks (especially German, UK for Russia) roaming onto their national borderlands and continues to do so for now, going into weeks, with a “counter terror” defense campaign as a measured military response, simply means:
They got nothing.
Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 19 2024 15:29 utc | 386
There is also a third possibility.
Simply consider what actually happened instead of wishful thinking.
Those armoured vehicles the Ukrainians drive have road speeds approaching 100 KPH and can effortlessly travel off road. They can easily skirt Russian defences and drive 50 KM into Russia before the Russians even knew they were there.
I could do the same thing to the USA if I had those armoured vehicles …. I could cross the border in Manitoba and be half way to Fargo ND before a single US tank crew could get their boots on. I could then dismount and quickly dig in and pull my air defenses right up to the border … if I attacked with 2-3 Brigades of combined arms mechanized infantry it would take the US military weeks to clear me out however it doesn’t mean the US state is in danger of that the offensive can go any further once US forces are deployed.
THIS is where we are today. The Germans tried the same tactics in 1941. It worked well and the Russians couldn’t contain it until they changed tactics and then they could. The Germans tried a second and third time to use the same tactics but each time they tried they were less successful until they got beaten back to Berlin.
It’s not going to work this time … the Russians are onto them. They get 40-50 KM into Russia at best then the Russians set up a fire break ahead of the spearheads then spend the next couple of months choking the life out of the Ukrainians in the fire bag.
If you read the reports coming from the Russian side Russia has recon units driving around Ukainian strongpoints on ATV’s going as deep into Ukrainain territory as the Ukrainian’s achieved in Kursk … the difference is the Russians understand that if they try to hold that ground they’ll lose a lot of men and equipment …. just like what’s happening to The Ukrainians in Kursk so they don’t try. Instead of taking selfies of themselves raising flags they keep a low profile and do ambushes, recon, call in fire missions etc. and return home to fight again.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Aug 19 2024 16:46 utc | 389

Watching the SMO for the last 2 1/2 years has been enlightening, and scary.
I knew that the Kiev regime was attacking the Donbass since the coup, but I thought they were just camped outside Donetsk City, and shelling civilians from there.
Watching the long slog of Russian troops fighting their way through fortified city after city, and knowing that the US/NATO paid for all those bunkers and fortifications, is truly horrifying.
The media never questions why the Kiev regime would have so many forts and bunkers in eastern Ukraine, and media slurpers never seem to wonder either. But it is clear that the US/NATO meant to keep Ukraine and its riches for themselves.
I have also learned that the Soviets were master builders. Growing up in the heart of the Empire, I was always told that they pretended to work, but yet, the dams, cities, factories, mines, bridges, railroads and electrical facilities are built to work and to withstand attack.
Looks like they lied again.
Re this website. The ration of trolls to complaints about trolls is probably 1/25. Then we get the comments that there are too many comments! That adds still more.
Easy solution. Ignore the trolls unless you have some information debunking what they say. I always appreciate that. Name calling, accusations, and complaints add nothing but more to scroll through.
First: heal thyself.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Aug 19 2024 16:47 utc | 390

Dima seems to think that the next target of the US/UKR/NATO will be Transnistria. That is an easy target, so it seems possible.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Aug 19 2024 16:51 utc | 391

..The taming of the ex global hegemon and all of its vassals will take decades, not years. A timeframe that the Chinese, Russians and Iranians are comfortable with.
Posted by: Roger | Aug 19 2024 15:54 utc | 390
.
So what are we to make of President Xi saying last year “the world will see changes not seen in a 100 years”?

Posted by: Ново З | Aug 19 2024 16:53 utc | 392

A Russian FPV drone ruins a Nazi attempt to engage in propaganda.
*source*

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 19 2024 16:55 utc | 393

In Feb 1943 the newly formed U.S. Army chased a few German tanks into a preset kessel a favored tactic of the German armor leaders. It got smashed, and removed armor that could have counter attacked at Kasserine pass.
Russia is doing this today to the Ukraine in Kursk, only the kessel is after the Ukraine stuck its neck out.
Same result only US and EU stretching tanks too much.

Posted by: paddy | Aug 19 2024 17:00 utc | 394

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 19 2024 1:41 utc | 227
Of course, otherwise you will lose the argument. The workers in western countries do not form a class because they have no consciousness as a class. They are mere individuals. Hence there is no organisation to represent them as a class. And no way to change anything.

Posted by: Naive | Aug 19 2024 17:01 utc | 395

400 – Fascinating that planting a flag is considered a good enough reason to use a drone. Not for recon, not blasting an enemy aircraft, vehicle or position, but planting a flag. Seems like a rather screwed-up sense of priorities to me.

Posted by: Waldorf | Aug 19 2024 17:11 utc | 396

Pâte | Aug 19 2024 15:34 utc | 389
I see Shadowbanned may have gone, but his spirit is with us.
“Putin inherited a ransacked and bewildered country, with a poor and demoralized people,” Solzhenitsyn told the German magazine Der Spiegel in a 2007 interview, when Putin was still president. “And he started to do what was possible, a slow and gradual restoration. These efforts were not noticed, nor appreciated, immediately. In any case, one is hard-pressed to find examples in history when steps by one country to restore its strength were met favorably by other governments.”
If Putin were a US agent, I doubt the controlled Western media would make so many personal attacks on him. 23-D chess?
“Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_for_Radicals#The_Rules

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 19 2024 17:16 utc | 397

Interesting this commentator, from the ‘Military and Foreign Affairs Network’ channel, also sees the possibility of a Little-Saturn style operation, attempting to trap the entire Ukrainian Kursk incursion force. He also brings in the idea of air-mobile operations, in support of the armoured pincers, classic Soviet doctrine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtiUDCSo4P
So is the bridge dropping an attempt to reinforce a flank, because the Ukrainians are worried about a double envelopment,
Or is it
The precursor to launching the second phase of the invasion, by attempting to cut-off and capture more territory.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KO4-Azrrnic

Posted by: Milites | Aug 19 2024 17:16 utc | 398

RE: Posted by: HB_Norica | Aug 19 2024 16:46 utc | 396
There is also a third possibility.
“Simply consider what actually happened instead of wishful thinking.”
I’ve no “wishful thinking”, I agree with the rest of your analysis of the response and possible calculations, analysis of response by Russia.
I simply don’t agree with the response taken. It’s time to bury Ukraine. Set a precedent. Because of their weak sauce response, they can expect the long range missiles and F-16 long range capabilities to engage wholeheartedly.
More Russian lives will be lost.
Containment in Ukraine was one thing.
Some “hit and run” excursions, tolerable.
But Russia just showed all of NATO… we’re weak sauce, come get us. And they will.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 19 2024 17:20 utc | 399

Milites | Aug 19 2024 17:16 utc | 405
“a Little-Saturn style operation, attempting to trap the entire Ukrainian Kursk incursion force”
It would be great, but I’m not holding my breath, as I’ve been hearing about kettles and kesseln since before Artemovsk/Bakhmut fell 15 months ago. I was hoping Chasov Yar would soon follow, but the line seems to be stuck thereabouts.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 19 2024 17:25 utc | 400