Ukraine Open Thread 2024-191
News & views related to the war in Ukraine ...
Posted by b on August 11, 2024 at 12:51 UTC | Permalink
next page »In the Kursk region, #Russia, the Armed Forces of #Ukraine have advanced near the city of Korenevoye.
Heavy fighting is also underway in the area of Olgovka and Kremyanoye.
How are they able to do this? Russia advances a few meters after months of fighting, Ukraine advances kilometers in days. The discrepancy in competence between the Russian army and Ukraine/NATO is glaring.
Posted by: bored | Aug 11 2024 13:51 utc | 2
A Ukrainian Telegram channel (which I won't name as I don't won't to publicise it) has alleged that X2 F16s using rocket assisted "Hammer Bombs" were used to destroy Russian forces inside Russia during the current Offensive into Kursk.
They state the planes were covered by both US Patriot and BUK systems.
Trawling through the Russian channel I have found acknowledgement that "Hammer Bombs" were intercepted and a Patriot radar system was destroyed by Russian forces.
There is no mention at all of the type of planes used by Ukraine in Russian channels.
This has led to increased speculation that F16s were indeed used, and successfully at that.
This will be seen as another humiliating failure of Russia in protecting the state border if Ukraine can prove this.
There is a Retired Russian General on Telegram (Russian language channel) stating that Senior Officers must now be removed following what he, in his expert opinion, stated is a full military assault into Russia by Ukraine and a serious attempt to open a new front (and not just an incursion or adventure as less qualified people have suggested).
The General said also that Putin must escalate and use decisive force.
He is a well known retired Russian General with his own Telegram, so his channel should not be hard to find for Russian speakers.
Posted by: Lucian from Paris | Aug 11 2024 13:56 utc | 3
Ukraine is continuing to put reinforcements into Kursk region, and have made some more gains, but not nearly as east now, and Russia is having moderate success around Sudzha.
There was an information attack to the south east that didn't pan out this time but ukraine definitely has some more reserves to work with. It sounds like a lot of French and polish mercs with prisoner battalion are being used so that's 6000 guys trained in Britain, 4000 or so convicts and probably hundreds of mercs.
With the territorial defense brigades covering the rear there's probably 15000 guys working Sumy now.
For comparison about 30000 guys were used to stop Russia around kharkhov.
So far it's looking like the reserves are going to be used to double down in Kursk with a strike on targets of opportunity to demoralize and exhaust Russian defenders.
A counter attack at povrosk salient would seem better to many but I guess they've already written off that territory.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 11 2024 13:59 utc | 4
The hits just keep coming:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/11/zelensky-confirms-ukraines-military-operation-russia/
Ukrainian soldiers have removed a Russian flag from a council building in the Kursk region, as Kyiv continues its attacks on the border region.In a video shared online, two soldiers who appear to be dressed in Ukrainian uniform, break down the flag in Sverdlikovo and throw it on the ground.
Another video circulating shows destroyed military vehicles lining the side of the road – inside some are injured or dead soldiers.
My prediction, Putin is gone (one way or another) by the end of the year and Russia is forced into a humiliating peace agreement.
Posted by: bored | Aug 11 2024 14:05 utc | 5
@2 bored
Re: advancing kilometers a day
At that rate ukraine would've won by now, but yet is 20 percent occupied.
Perhaps the situation is more complicated than you think.
I do understand what you mean though Nato is much more dangerous and competent than many pro russian folks will dare admit.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 11 2024 14:05 utc | 6
Oh and the information war is fierce, ukraine is flooding networks with information designed to demoralize and induce panic. It's working very well but you'll need like 5 verifications before you can start to believe something.
Let's not get carried away with shit the social media networks
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 11 2024 14:08 utc | 7
I'm no military expert, but just off the top of my head, I would say that it is easier to advance through unarmed villages, killing civilians as you go, than it is to advance through hundreds of thousands of well-armed soldiers sitting in fortifications built over 10 years.
Just guessing.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Aug 11 2024 14:16 utc | 9
Imagine if Putin had announced his SMO based on what has really happened:
“Fellow citizens, we are entering Ukraine to make Russia safer. Our armies will attempt to take Kyiv and be driven back. NATO will flood Ukraine with weapons. Soon after, the Russian flagship will be sunk. The Russian fleet will not be safe in Crimea. Our NS2 pipeline will be destroyed.
We will have 100,000 causalities or more as my lightening invasion locks into a nightmare front. We will be moving at a snails pace and will use convict armies for Stalingrad-like battles to take small towns.
Russia will be attacked by NATO drones and rockets constantly, our energy production will be targeted, our Air Force. Go to the beach, take in a Moscow concert, yes you may also have to die to Make Russia Great Again!
On top these plans, we anticipate Ukraine will invade the Kursk region about the time they receive US F-16s. Our planners have trouble seeing past August 2024, but I assure you the SMO will be spread out on a 1,100 km front and moving nowhere fast.”
~ Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, February 2022
Posted by: Napoleon | Aug 11 2024 14:19 utc | 10
Ukraine Weekly Update, 9th August 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-44e
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Aug 11 2024 14:25 utc | 11
@10 napoleon
Re: honest talk
Russians would've agreed to it as long as he honestly noted that Ukraine was prepped to crush donetsk, was actively purging russian culture from its historical territory, and was going to attack Crimea afterwards.
After that Ukraine would've joined Nato and they would've launched a crusade to "decolonize' Russia with all the attendant terrorist and missle strikes.
You know, just to keep the honesty flowing yah?
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 11 2024 14:26 utc | 12
Tolpino is north of Korenovo, the news is from Tass proper. WTF?
How big is this attack , 30.000 strong? More? If the 1.350 announced by RF are kia , total casualties should be 8.000 (4.000 if 1.350 are total disabling casualties and deaths)
I’d expect that near the 40% hit any army has to stop and hold. So in any scenario no less than 10.000 were used in this operation by the AFU.
Milites, unimperator, your 2 cents?
Down South, any news?
The regular Newbie you know
MOSCOW, August 11. /TASS/. Over the past 24 hours, Russian military personnel have prevented attempts by mobile groups of the Ukrainian armed forces to break through deep into the Kursk region, the Russian Defense Ministry reported.
"Over the course of 24 hours, actions by the Battlegroup North units and arriving reserves, strikes by army aviation and unmanned aerial vehicles, and artillery fire in the areas of the settlements of Tolpino, Zhuravli, and Obshchy Kolodez prevented attempts of the enemy mobile groups to break through deep into Russian territory on armored vehicles," the ministry said.
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 11 2024 14:28 utc | 13
Lev Davidovich | Aug 11 2024 13:37 utc | 1
Can't enlighten you any Lev, but you've enlightened me a lot. :)
Posted by: Gerry Bell | Aug 11 2024 14:30 utc | 14
Napoleon @ Aug 11 2024 14:19 utc | 10
Dear NATO citizens, we are planning to spend 80 billion and 300k Ukrainian lives in trenches to lose most of our AD capabilities in a war we are unprepared for. We plan to produce no arms and browbeat Russia into submission by declaring Putin the new Hitler. Look away, the world is really only the clever victorious West. Or 70 eh 16 F16s and the 600 eh 80 Leopards, 20 of those Version 2 wunderwaffen will win the day once we found the spares. Don't worry, replacements will be delivered I. 20 years at 8 times the price. In the meantime we will fight a war in Moscow
Posted by: SOS | Aug 11 2024 14:30 utc | 15
Posted by: Napoleon | Aug 11 2024 14:19 utc | 10
Along those lines, Putin's goals:
2014: annex Crimea; establish Novorossiya
2022: seize Kyiv, Odesa and half of Ukraine; establish a puppet regime
2023: reach the administrative boundaries of Luhansk and Donetsk regions
2024: regain control of Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions
---
Actually, I think the last two goals have a reasonable probability of being archived by sometime next year if things continue as they have for the last 12 months.
Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 11 2024 14:30 utc | 16
"@10 napoleon
Re: honest talk
Russians would've agreed to it as long as he honestly noted that Ukraine was prepped to crush donetsk, was actively purging russian culture from its historical territory, and was going to attack Crimea afterwards.
After that Ukraine would've joined Nato and they would've launched a crusade to "decolonize' Russia with all the attendant terrorist and missile strikes.
You know, just to keep the honesty flowing yah?"
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 11 2024 14:26 utc | 12
Your too good to bother with a such a nonsensical misanthrope.
@ed4
Re: taking Kiev
There's every indication that Russias push to Kiev was to give it an opportunity to surrender and wasn't intended to militarily conquer it. There was no assault on Kiev and only enough soldiers to say hello. The whole invasion of ukraine was done with 150 000 soldiers. You may not understand but that's not enough to conquer it, just enough to occupy a country that has surrendered. Russia is looking to fight a generational war to protect itself from Nato.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 11 2024 14:37 utc | 18
@13 newbie
Re: casualties
Casualty means everything.
Wounded, killed, captured or missing.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 11 2024 14:44 utc | 19
Forwarded from Older than EddaOnce again, I will describe how a typical combat clash in the Kursk region occurs. A maneuverable armored group of the enemy moves forward, either drives along a public road or tries to go along country roads. If the settlement is empty, that is, there are no our troops there, the armored group stops, carries out "surface control" with a camera and either moves on or stops in the nearest forest regiment to adjust the task.
If the settlement is not empty, and the fighters covering it do not panic, a battle occurs, after which, as a rule, the enemy rolls back, especially
if there are no tanks in his armored group. If there are tanks, then they try to suppress our strongholds with fire, and the armored vehicles block them from the front and rear, giving the rest an opportunity to slip through further.In this case, several things are extremely important: constant air control, a good commander and fighters with anti-tank weapons on the strongholds, the presence of attack drones, Lancets and FPV. Army aviation and artillery are certainly extremely necessary, but still the time lag of the same aviation is quite large, and the artillery may simply not have time to aim, even if the gun does not need to be turned and the enemy is in its sector of fire.
AA and artillery are important here in the second stage of the battle, especially if the enemy, after being stopped, tries to regroup and continue the attack. This is where artillery and aviation hammer him into the ground, not giving him the opportunity to either continue the attack or retreat.
Another point is the elements of free hunting of lancet men. Their Zal observes the area and upon detection of the enemy, launches X. By the way, this is exactly how dozens of units of armored vehicles that invaded the Kursk region have already been destroyed. The enemy's control of the territory noted in Tg is extremely conditional. He can stably control only the area where he has already dug in and has supply routes.
Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 11 2024 14:48 utc | 20
You can't take the 1350 number and auto magically multiply it. Of that 1350 some are wounded coming back, or still might be on the field
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 11 2024 14:49 utc | 21
Quite a campaign by the NATO trolls here right now. Sverdlikovo mentioned above is just over border, and far from Kursk, 130km. Not a very impressive advance.
Posted by: laguerre | Aug 11 2024 15:01 utc | 22
reply to 2
You cite a claim from Lord Of War but don't cite other claims that attacks on Belgorod are small and that Ukraine has had serious losses in Kursk.
Now that some of the fog of war has lifted, a different interpretation is possible: This invasion shows how fragile and desperate Ukraine has become. Why?
First, there are claims of mercenaries from US, France, Georgia and Poland (may be noted by language or insignia/flags). This suggests a hodge podge mixed force is all Ukraine can come up with for aggressive action (not elderly/female/ex-prisoner/unwilling conscripts defending trenches) Not a good sign.
Second, the equipment looks like a hodge podge as well: Marders,Stykers, autos, missiles and artillery from various sources, a few ancient Soviet tanks and so on. Again, not a good sign in pursuit of an invasion. Nazis did this stuff in their desperation, too - with captured French/US tanks, trucks and whatever they could steal. This may have appeared deceptive as if many brigades were involved but not if it was simply scrounging their equipment. Actually, that would be worse. Instead of Russia pulling forces from the front elsewhere, it looks more like Ukraine doing that.
Third, the "strategy" seems to be to hit highways at maximum speed and get as far as possible before being stopped. It looks like blitzkreig at first and conquering big areas but more accurately appears like thin fingers extending down major roads with little reserve or backup. Enjoy it while you can.
Fourth, where's any massive group of trucks to supply ammo, food, water, removal of the wounded? Invasions fail when logistics are poor.
In summary, this looks very 'Battle of the Bulge' -ish. The Germans didn't get to Antwerp and these dead enders didn't get to Kurchatov. And they lack aircover. It looks very bad for Ukraine as to a last throw of the dice.
Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 11 2024 15:03 utc | 23
Posted by: bored | Aug 11 2024 14:05 utc | 5
++++++++++++++++++
Delusional.
Posted by: AI | Aug 11 2024 15:04 utc | 24
The Battle of Kursk was the largest tank battle in history, involving some 6,000 tanks, 2,000,000 troops, and 4,000 aircraft. It marked the decisive end of the German offensive capability on the Eastern Front and cleared the way for the great Soviet offensives of 1944–45.
Well?
Posted by: Ostro | Aug 11 2024 15:05 utc | 25
@ bored -5
Are you genuinely mentally defective?
Just joking?
Or a psychopath?
Posted by: Robert | Aug 11 2024 15:09 utc | 26
Ukraine was prepped to crush donetsk
@Neofeudalfuture | Aug 11 2024 14:26 utc | 12
Why was that an issue? Ukraine is 404. Surely superpower Russia can stop the forces of a failed state, lingering near their border.
Posted by: Napoleon | Aug 11 2024 15:11 utc | 27
I have to say all those that see this as the down fall of Russia/Putin, couldn't be more wrong. Now Russia can use any force it wants up to nuclear, it has been invaded! Goodbye SMO welcome Total War!! 1)/2/100 thousand going to succeed in invading and destroying Russia, best laugh ever. Gloves off now, sorry for 404 but the reality is coming with force.
Posted by: koan me a riddle | Aug 11 2024 15:11 utc | 28
@ wagelaborer | Aug 11 2024 14:16 utc | 9
lol.. yes, exactly... i find it impossible to read the ukraine open threads at this point.. too much insanity for my tastes, but kudos to you and some of the others...
Posted by: james | Aug 11 2024 15:12 utc | 29
How are they able to do this? Russia advances a few meters after months of fighting, Ukraine advances kilometers in days.Posted by: bored | Aug 11 2024 13:51 utc
Because there is a hardened front in the East.
Posted by: ReinhardVonSiegfried | Aug 11 2024 15:19 utc | 30
You can't take the 1350 number and auto magically multiply it. Of that 1350 some are wounded coming back, or still might be on the field
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 11 2024 14:49 utc | 21
RF usually presents only AFU permanently disabled (AFAIK) otherwise we'd be talking about (estimate) 225 KIA 225 permanently WIA and 900 recoverable WIA so far (very low values for the areas and fighting involved these 5 days).
In that case they could be as little as 5.000 and be over in 3 days.
But I find it hard that they could run a 6km gauntlet around Korenevo to reach Tolpino, maybe used the railway line, but shouldn't be possible.
That's why I asked if anybody had some news (and some others to present another analysis)
Yours truly, the regular Newbie you all know
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 11 2024 15:19 utc | 31
My prediction, Putin is gone (one way or another) by the end of the year and Russia is forced into a humiliating peace agreement.
Posted by: bored | Aug 11 2024 14:05 utc | 5
My prediction. Kiev has already failed with one offensive last year. The present kursk offensive is a last ditch effort to gain initiative. It will NOT succeed. Furtgermore, there will be little if any turmoil in Russia (the goal of the offensive). Putin is in a far stronger position than zelensky is. When the kursk offensive finally fails, therefore, it will be zelensky that is forced into a humiliating peace agreement, not Putin.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Aug 11 2024 15:25 utc | 32
Oh and the information war is fierce, ukraine is flooding networks with information designed to demoralize and induce panic. It's working very well but you'll need like 5 verifications before you can start to believe something.Let's not get carried away with shit the social media networks
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 11 2024 14:08 utc
Just look at /r/worldnews on Reddit.
Posted by: ReinhardVonSiegfried | Aug 11 2024 15:25 utc | 33
AFU tank doing RUAF work in Pokrovsk direction.
🇺🇦🇷🇺 Electronic Warfare: A Ukrainian tank opened fire on its own infantry in the Pokrovsky direction.Due to the suppression of communications by electronic warfare systems, the Ukrainian personnel lost the ability to coordinate their actions.
AFU infantry opened fire on its own tank from the house they were hiding in.
The tank return the fire, destroying several floors of the building along with the Ukrainian soldiers, the Sever-V Brigade reports.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 11 2024 15:26 utc | 34
After not capturing the npp, nor sudzkha and the measuring station, provided that those were the targets, and after than the RF didn't, apparently, move any forces from the rest of the front, what it all remains to afu, being heavily pounded in the rear region of sumy what's remain of this 'massive' offensive are some idiots in the blogsphere.
A couple of them are wining here in the bar.
Posted by: Mario | Aug 11 2024 15:28 utc | 35
NATO, since its' beginnings, has always been a nazi enterprise. What is one to make of all the cheerleaders, here, for it?
Posted by: zeke2u | Aug 11 2024 15:29 utc | 36
Commander Alaudinov says 14 AFU AFVs were destroyed near Martynovka alone, this is probably the AFU vanguard Dima said yesterday was defeated. Zelensky's blitzkrieg has failed.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 11 2024 15:33 utc | 37
Legitimate
#rumors #Moldavskeyes #layout
Our source reports that Zelensky's Kursk gamble may lead to Bankova staging a provocation on the border with Transdniestria in order to raise the stakes in the game even more. This plan has long been ready. The main goal is to draw NATO into the war. (By the way, the readiness of the Belarusian army and the transfer of a huge amount of weapons and personnel to the border with Ukraine does not just happen and can mean a warning to Kiev).If since 2022, Ukraine has actually waged a defensive war and told the whole world that they were attacked, then with an official attack on the Kursk region, Ukraine is moving from the status of a "victim" to the status of a "mini-aggressor", or the status quo in statuses/image is now between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, which means this will affect Ukraine's image in Western society in the long term, which can put a total end to the continuation of the war in 2025-26.
We wrote about three scenarios at the beginning of the year.
It follows that Zelensky, having driven himself into a corner, can go into a "dressing down" and arrange a provocation in order to draw Moldova and Romania into a war through the Transdniestrian crisis, which is very beneficial to Kiev. We reported this on January 12, calling such a step the agony of Zelensky, who will realize that the war is actually lost and this is the last provocation that can save his skin, but draw the world into a global third world war when the war between NATO and the Russian Federation begins.
Both the comedian of Kiev and the UK are now desperate to keep the war against Russia going. Trump faction wanting to attack Iran and China instead of Russia is a major threat to the hate Russia crowd.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 11 2024 15:36 utc | 38
The Ukrainian Armed Forces were driven out of Kursk Martynovka. Summary of the SVO for August 10
Russian troops drove Ukrainian militants out of the village of Martynovka in the Kursk region. Military correspondent Boris Rozhin reports this on his Telegram channel.
«During fierce battles, our troops recaptured Martynovka. The first assault, working closely with the 810th Marine Brigade, showed outstanding resilience and courage in completing the mission. At the moment, the territory is being cleared of surviving enemy forces», — he reported.
«Martynovka released. Several tanks and armored fighting vehicles, a certain amount of enemy personnel were destroyed, but in general the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces still need to be clarified», — adds war correspondent Alexander Kharchenko.
British mercenaries spotted near Kursk
«Soldiers of fortune» from Great Britain fighting for the Kiev regime were discovered in the Kursk region. This was reported by the Telegram channel «Military affairs».«British mercenaries of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (VSU) were spotted in the Kursk region, they post their photos on social networks», — says in the publication. Earlier it became known that other foreign militants were also operating near Kursk: the French, British and Georgians were terrorizing and executing civilians. This was reported by witnesses to the bloody massacres.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are driving women to the front line
The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine transferred a unit consisting of women in the Kreminnaya area to the LPR. TASS writes about this with reference to its own sources.According to the agency, «weak gender» is directly on the front line. The women's unit is intended to replace the drained assault force. The Ukrainian Armed Forces combatants were given the task of holding the line.
Earlier it became known that women prisoners began to be drafted into the Ukrainian army in exchange for parole. It is still unknown whether the former «zachki» — fell under Kremennaya.
More than a thousand corpses for PR
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, Ukrainian troops have already lost more than a thousand people during the attack on the Kursk region. Let us remind you that the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces began on August 6.«In total, during the fighting in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost up to 1,120 military personnel and 140 armored vehicles, including 22 tanks, 20 armored personnel carriers, eight infantry fighting vehicles, 88 armored combat vehicles, as well as 13 vehicles, two self-propelled firing units of the “Buk M1” anti-aircraft missile system, a BM-21 “Grad” multiple launch rocket system launcher and six field artillery guns», — was reported by the ministry.
Enemy losses in other directions
The Russian Ministry of Armor reports that over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than 1,850 military personnel killed and wounded. The most lethal zone for Ukrainian militants was the zone of action of the Russian group of troops «South», working in the DPR — here the enemy was missing 680 soldiers and officers.Units of the «North» group of troops disabled up to 95 people, the «West» — group up to 495, the «Center» — group up to 350, the «East» group up to 125, group «Dnepr» — up to 110.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 11 2024 15:47 utc | 39
Third, the "strategy" seems to be to hit highways at maximum speed and get as far as possible before being stopped. It looks like blitzkreig at first and conquering big areas but more accurately appears like thin fingers extending down major roads with little reserve or backup. Enjoy it while you can.
Fourth, where's any massive group of trucks to supply ammo, food, water, removal of the wounded? Invasions fail when logistics are poor.
In summary, this looks very 'Battle of the Bulge' -ish. The Germans didn't get to Antwerp and these dead enders didn't get to Kurchatov. And they lack aircover. It looks very bad for Ukraine as to a last throw of the dice.
Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 11 2024 15:03 utc | 23
Yes, a star spiked approach was used, but apparently after the serious forces do their thing they send in meat to dig in (and there were evacs , likely if it's nato troops)
But now there are also some other approaches, I can't see anybody doing a Tolpino run under fire on the road around or through Korenevo...
Now, apparently along the R200 the AFU has been pushed back at least to Martynovka. But hadn't they been pushed even further south by day 3? Information seems a little sparse but it looks like the front is a bit of a Yo-Yo right now, 15kms back and forth repeatedly. Or am I seeing something wrong?
Yours truly, the regular Newbie you all know
Yours truly, the regular Newbie you all know
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 11 2024 16:00 utc | 40
An attack on Transdniestria would be interesting. I think Russia is greatly disadvantaged here because of relying on rail and the huge problem of rivers, swamps and estuaries in the way.
OTOH, it could force them to march across north of Odessa and cut it off.
Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 11 2024 16:07 utc | 41
Posted by: zeke2u | Aug 11 2024 15:29 utc | 36
+++++++++++++++++++
It's not NATO it is neo-NAZI nato! Things need to be called for what they truely are.
Posted by: AI | Aug 11 2024 16:09 utc | 42
https://t.me/Mestb_Dobroj_Voli/12144
(Revenge of Good Will) In the area of military operations in the Kursk region, it is urgently YESTERDAY necessary to establish a system of communication and identification of one's troops!!!! Gather all the commanders (at worst, the dispatchers from each participating organism) and introduce them to each other!!! Introduce a curfew for civilians! Otherwise, there is already a mess there!!!First of all, the Armed Forces are taking advantage of this!!!
🇷🇺🇺🇦On the problems of coordination in the Kursk directionWe explain the overly emotional appeal of comrades from the channel Revenge of Good Will .
▪️The Kursk direction is now being filled with units from different branches and types of troops , which are subordinated to different groups and commands. "Fire brigades" are arriving in an accelerated manner, in these cases the bureaucratic gears of the RF Armed Forces are somewhat, ahem, slowing down and creaking.
▪️You don't have to look far for an example: one of the special forces units of the Russian army, sent to eliminate the operational crisis in Martynovka and Sudzha , encountered on the way... the military police, who tried to check the documents of the people who were going to liberate the territories for a long time and tediously.
▪️Due to communication failures for both objective (enemy electronic warfare) and subjective reasons, neighbors on the right and left often do not know each other, do not know who to turn to in order to cover the flanks. Because of this, the integrity of the front is lost , and enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups break through ( the night entry into the Belovsky district is a clear confirmation of this).
▪️In the conditions of the counter-terrorist operation, the organization of horizontal connections without excessive bureaucracy is the key to the survival of troops and the effectiveness of their work. No one wants our own units to suffer from friendly fire, right? Everyone is on edge, such an outcome, alas, is not zero.
▪️Without establishing horizontal connections, debugging the combat command and control system, it is very difficult to operate effectively in the Russian borderland. Why overcome again if problems can be simply avoided?
❗️In general, what is happening in the Kursk direction was a stress test of all the RF Armed Forces for the ability to act in a crisis situation, and it remains so. We have already said that it is necessary to draw conclusions and take into account mistakes. Now, alas, we are patching up holes, and not correcting the approach .
Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 11 2024 16:10 utc | 43
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 11 2024 16:10 utc | 44
The restoration of Mariulpol
https://t.me/s/intelslava?before=64837
https://t.me/s/intelslava?before=64837
Posted by: Mary | Aug 11 2024 16:10 utc | 45
You got played by a KGB officer worth $200 billion
Posted by: Napoleon | Aug 11 2024 14:55 utc | 619
ah there it is again, the lie from bill browder, that known grifter and thief.
and the local pub idiot fell for it.
congratulations, you played yourself.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Aug 11 2024 16:17 utc | 46
Posted by: Mary | Aug 11 2024 16:10 utc | 45
🇷🇺 Mariupol In August 2024Restoration work is in full swing
Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 11 2024 16:17 utc | 47
Russia advances a few meters after months of fighting…
Posted by: bored | Aug 11 2024 13:51 utc | 2
Trolls like you are easy to spot. If you watched frontline changes over the last few months Russia was always gaining ground and not in metres.
Watch on Youtube Weeb Union, Defense Politics Asia or Military Summary Channel just to name a few.
Posted by: NoName | Aug 11 2024 16:21 utc | 48
Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 11 2024 16:07 utc | 41
Let's not kid ourselves. If Nato wants to attack Transnistria, they will. And most likely they will do it with a large amount of 'mercenaries' like in Kursk.
This thing is spiraling out of control with half of Nato armies sheep dipped under the AFU banner and Nato air bases arming those F-16s. I expect this path will lead to some bases in Romania and Poland, maybe even some primary Nato bases further west getting nuked.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 11 2024 16:22 utc | 49
unimperator | Aug 11 2024 16:22 utc | 49
That about sums it up. The difficulty for Russia in getting ground forces in if required. I assume Russia would have some plan on standby, but as far as I can see missile strikes on any attacking force seems about the only option.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 11 2024 16:28 utc | 50
Let's not kid ourselves. If Nato wants to attack Transnistria, they will. And most likely they will do it with a large amount of 'mercenaries' like in Kursk.
unimperator that was an astute observation, in my gut I just know that false flags and serious atrocities will be the order of the day. Your nukes comment sounds a little goofy and far-fetched just mirroring some of the ridiculous ideas of the NAFO types that squat here.
My real hope, IMO I truly hope and pray that regular folks...people power in force will stand up and be counted and say no with their protests and their bodies to halt this grievous BS. In places like Moldova, Hungary, Serbia, Slovakia and Romania where over half the population hate the liberal west and want closer ties with Russia. These people MUST stand up and be counted!!
Posted by: bisfugged | Aug 11 2024 16:34 utc | 51
Wow. I strolled into the bar and was almost overcame by the stench of Trolls. I had to grab a beer and sit upwind out in the patio.
By the intense odor I surmise Ukraine must be loosing their offensive.
Posted by: golddigger | Aug 11 2024 16:40 utc | 52
How are they able to do this? Russia advances a few meters after months of fighting, Ukraine advances kilometers in days. The discrepancy in competence between the Russian army and Ukraine/NATO is glaring.
Posted by: bored | Aug 11 2024 13:51 utc | 2
So that's one metric but another is that Russia has built it's army in Ukraine from 100,000 in 2022 to 700,000 by the end of this year while Ukraine has had to be rebuilt from the ground up by NATO three time and has to press gang people into joining the army.
Out of these 2 strategies which one makes the most sense long term?
Russia is taking territory it intends to hold. Ukraine drives 50 KM into Russia then stalls. You can drive around border controls and go 50 km in less than an hour but that doesn't mean you can hold the territory or if it's even territory worth holding ... I know what Russia is going to do with all those mines and factories they're seizing in the Donbas but what is Ukraine going to do with a few villages in Kursk or a dacha in Krynky? Is there anything there worth losing thousands of trained soldiers over?
Posted by: HB_Norica | Aug 11 2024 16:44 utc | 53
golddigger | Aug 11 2024 16:40 utc | 52
Too true dude. I think I'll join you outside but I am not going to LOSE my focus so I'll keep an eye on them...
Posted by: bisfugged | Aug 11 2024 16:46 utc | 54
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 11 2024 14:37 utc | 18
“There was no assault on Kiev and only enough soldiers to say hello”
That is truly a putin-level move in 88D chess. Start a war with just enough troops to say hello :)
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Aug 11 2024 16:50 utc | 55
If since 2022 ...draw the world into a global third world war when the war between NATO and the Russian Federation begins.
Much of the last 2.5 years has been conditioning the Western mindset to this fait accompli.
Posted by: Call it what u will | Aug 11 2024 16:52 utc | 56
⚖️🇺🇦 The cost of the Kursk operation for Ukraine1️⃣Losses in people and equipment. Everything is clear here - everything that is available is flying at the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that have entered;
2️⃣Losses on the eastern front have not gone away. The Russian Armed Forces are still slowly advancing;
3️⃣Losses of territory in the East also continue. Forced evacuations from additional settlements indicate that the command has little faith in the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to hold them;
4️⃣Debunking the myth that Ukraine is only defending itself. Public breakdown of the official narrative about the exclusively defensive nature of the war from Kyiv. This proves that we are right - the main goal of the war is to inflict maximum damage on the Russian Federation.
From self-defense and "we don't need what's not ours" to "they should feel the war too" Zelensky led to an attempt to seize CONTROL over the canonical territories of the Russian Federation.
This will inevitably turn some of the partners away from Ukraine, especially in case of failure. Helping in defense is one thing, but in the occupation of part of a nuclear state - quite another☝️
5️⃣THE STUPIDEST THING is that all the territories controlled in the Kursk region will still have to be returned! Either the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be driven out of there, or they will leave them as a result of peace agreements.
Sudzha and the villages around it will never become Ukraine in any case. This means that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are advancing and holding there simply pointlessly, but the territories in the east are being lost.
It is clear that Bankovaya does not measure by human lives and logic, but by the media effect:
🔹the population's trend towards a quick peace has been temporarily reversed;
🔹partners in the West have been shown: we struck at Russian territory and nothing happened to us for it😛
Here, sum up the true "accounting" of the Kursk operation🧩
https://t.me/ZeRada1/20974
Posted by: Down South | Aug 11 2024 16:54 utc | 57
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Kursk Direction: Clashes in Korenevo District and More Footage of Strikes on the AFU What is known as of 6:00 PM on August 11, 2024In the Kursk direction, fierce battles continue in several settlements. Meanwhile, Russian forces have carried out a series of strikes on identified AFU positions both in the occupied part of the region and in the neighboring Sumy Region.
The enemy also continues to conduct attacks in the information space: a significant amount of false information is being spread in regional chats, including about the announced evacuation throughout the Kursk Region.
🔻In the Sudzha District, Ukrainian formations have again launched drones to strike Russian Armed Forces positions in the administrative center. The presence of AFU members is recorded in the vicinity of Honcharivka and Zaoleshanka.
▪️The situation in the area of Plekhovo and to the east of it remains shrouded in the "fog of war". This morning, there were reports of roaming enemy groups near the village of Borki and the village of Spalnoye, but due to the lack of communication, it is not possible to confirm the presence of the AFU there.
🔻In the Korenevo District, the zone of control of Ukrainian formations has expanded slightly: according to footage that appeared online, the enemy continues to hold positions in the forest areas along the Sudzha - Korenevo highway, including in the Kultura and Olhovskaya Roshcha tracts.
▪️Further east, fighting continues along the line of Russkoye Porechnoye - Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, where the enemy is steadily losing armored vehicles. Another confirmation of this was the footage from a reconnaissance drone, which shows the successful destruction of a "Kozak-2" armored vehicle by a "Lancet".
🔻As for the Belovo District, the situation with the night "breakthrough" has been somewhat clarified: roaming sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the enemy managed to infiltrate the district and reach the vicinity of the village of Ozorki and the farm of Ivanovskiy, where they were struck by Russian air power.
Nevertheless, such mobile sabotage groups continue to pose a significant threat - having found a breach in the defense, they are able to quickly penetrate deep into the region, after which they begin to carry out raids and ambushes there.
One cannot also disregard the activation of Ukrainian formations in other areas - just today, enemy saboteurs unsuccessfully tried to infiltrate the Belgorod Region. And along the entire border, the AFU have enough units ready to try their luck not only in the Sudzha and Korenevo districts.
https://t.me/sitreports/32734
Posted by: Down South | Aug 11 2024 16:55 utc | 58
Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 11 2024 16:10 utc | 43
The same, if not worse, will be plaguing the AFU, so once again it’s a contest between who can make the least mistakes.
What’s interesting is that the Russians have not released the Divisional forces that are nearby, relying on ad-hoc groups, backed by fire support, to contain the situation. Putting two and two together to make 3 and a half, I wonder if we are not going to see a mini-Kharkov II situation, or a separate Russian assault on this front, which would put them on the horns of a dilemma.
By the way, this offensive once again shows the strengths and weaknesses of drones, but also the superiority of the conventional platforms in carrying out most missions assigned to them. Drones are a force multiplier, but you must initially have sufficient force, before any effective multiplication can occur.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 11 2024 16:56 utc | 59
NoName @ 48
If you watched frontline changes over the last few months Russia was always gaining ground and not in metres.
I'll add, since the fail of the AFU BIG Counter Offensive last summer the RF forces have been moving forward on active defense, that is, their defensive forces are coming out of their trenches and moving forward very carefully, very systematically. RF has yet to switch to offense forces. It will do so when it is certain the AFU is breaking. That is why they AFU has been doing some of their more suicidal actions, to hide that they are breaking.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 11 2024 16:56 utc | 60
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 11 2024 16:22 utc | 49
Not going to happen.
RF will not nuke first.
NATO is not going to win any war against a peer unless they go nuclear but it will not be RF to start.
So, expect a false flag from Nato and then Armageddon will happen.
Not that nato will win or, at that time, who the winner will be will be questionable or, probably, irrelevant.
Posted by: Mario | Aug 11 2024 16:56 utc | 61
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Aug 11 2024 16:50 utc | 55
It nearly worked.
Unfortunately someone in the west decided it would be better to fight to the last Ukrainian, so let it be.
You better change your handle toentula can is given the in utility of your posts.
Posted by: Mario | Aug 11 2024 17:01 utc | 62
@myself in 62
Should read change your handle to mentula canis..
Posted by: Mario | Aug 11 2024 17:03 utc | 63
How are they able to do this? Russia advances a few meters after months of fighting, Ukraine advances kilometers in days. The discrepancy in competence between the Russian army and Ukraine/NATO is glaring.
Posted by: bored | Aug 11 2024 13:51 utc | 2
###########
If you think rape and murder of civilians is competence ...
Remember, the NATO-trained Ukrainians have been raping and murdering in the Donbass for a decade.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 11 2024 17:06 utc | 65
What’s interesting is that the Russians have not released the Divisional forces that are nearby, relying on ad-hoc groups, backed by fire support, to contain the situation.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 11 2024 16:56 utc | 59
That is the aspect I have been thinking about. What else is the Rus MoD seeing?
From the Ukraine channels, part of the Kursk operation was to try and draw Russian forces away from other fronts, but Russian MoD are not budging on that issue.
But also from the Ukraine channels it Is Ukraine rather than Russia that have had to draw in forces from other fronts.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 11 2024 17:07 utc | 66
Unimperator@1622
What's your fascination with nukes? Toxic.
Posted by: aristodemos | Aug 11 2024 17:11 utc | 67
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 11 2024 17:07 utc | 66
################
One side is reactive and the other is not. If Russia has to directly respond to everything the Ukrainians do, Ukraine gains the initiative.
Instead, Russia is showing control, restraint, and confidence by handling this incursion like the mosquito bite that it is.
It is unlikely that the trolls are talking about Kursk in 4 weeks.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 11 2024 17:12 utc | 68
BTW according to the TG Masno channel, supposedly he's lives in Sumy, the city is filling up with AFU troops and machines. Bit weird, if in support of the incursion they should have been long there, if emergency reserves the Russians are now prepared and Kursk is all open fields roads, if defensive AFU are expecting a retreat and a defense of the city.
Some very interesting Ukrainian weapons standing around the corner from my house. The pieces of shit that they are, love parking key weapon systems in-between civilian apartments. There is a huge army here, they are coming thick and fast.
This is how I see Sumy in a couple of months
I still suspect the veracity of the Masno TG, he's sort of a Gonzalo Lira Lite and not sure how he hasn't been shut down, but the channel is useful for providing UKR vids that the Russian channels avoid, the UKR channels are totally nauseating and full of fakes so I check his channels for some sort of balance. Meh, I know it's all social media BS, "in war the first casualty is truth" not less so in the digital age but much more so. Who knows what we'll discover when it's all over, takes around 50ys so, I'll never know.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 11 2024 17:14 utc | 69
aristodemos | Aug 11 2024 17:11 utc | 67
Unimperator does not have a fascination with nukes.
We have just seen Russia and Belarus run tactical nuke exercises. Putin has said Russian nuclear doctrine may need changing as under the current situation, the current doctrine is not providing enough deterrence.
I believe Russian military does have a small presence in Transnistria. What contingency plans Russia has for in case Transnistria comes under Nato attack is an unknown at the moment but there will be contingency plans.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 11 2024 17:19 utc | 70
Posted by: Down South | Aug 11 2024 16:55 utc | 58
Thanks for the updates, so basically AFU is still being a PITA in a 20kms radius ...
But did you see anything more? As I mentioned earlier I found bizarre the Tolpino combats (and as coming from Tass it's not disinformation per se)
@unimperator, was it really you who mentioned tactical nukes in nato countries or was there an hijack of your user?
Yours truly, the regular Newbie you all know
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 11 2024 17:19 utc | 71
What’s interesting is that the Russians have not released the Divisional forces that are nearby, relying on ad-hoc groups, backed by fire support, to contain the situation.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 11 2024 16:56 utc | 59
That is the aspect I have been thinking about. What else is the Rus MoD seeing?
From the Ukraine channels, part of the Kursk operation was to try and draw Russian forces away from other fronts, but Russian MoD are not budging on that issue.
But also from the Ukraine channels it Is Ukraine rather than Russia that have had to draw in forces from other fronts.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 11 2024 17:07 utc | 66
So, the big questions can be:
1. Where are the Divisional Forces?
2. What were they about to do?
3. Did ukraine know 2 and this was an attempt to divert them?
Just speculating, would make sense to avoid a 100-200k strong RF offensive
Yours truly, the regular Newbie you all know
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 11 2024 17:24 utc | 72
Newbie | Aug 11 2024 17:19 utc | 71
I quoted a bit from the Ukie channels in the last thread I think. The Ukie/nato types are attacking points from civilian cars, Russian military vehicles uniforms ect - its designed to try and get Russian forces firing at each other and firing at any civilian.
It why and anti terrorist regime has been set up in Kursk region. They seem to now have been cleared in most areas. But these were just small units of several militants each that have tried to operate deep behind what now is beginning to emerge as a frontline.
Designed to sow confusion, but also to make Nato held ground seem much larger that it is/was for propaganda purposes.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 11 2024 17:31 utc | 73
LoveDonbass | Aug 11 2024 17:12 utc | 68
"One side is reactive and the other is not. If Russia has to directly respond to everything the Ukrainians do, Ukraine gains the initiative."
What war have you been watching? In this war NATO proactive escalation dominance meeting Russian passivity/reactivity has been the way of things since Putin first begged for Minsk III talks just a few days in to the "SMO".
LightYearsFromHome | Aug 11 2024 16:56 utc | 60
"RF has yet to switch to offense forces. It will do so when it is certain the AFU is breaking."
So they won't apply the pressure necessary to cause this breaking until they see the breaking happening first on its own, by magic or spooky action at a distance or something.
Gee, I wonder why this keeps looking like a fake kayfabe "war". /s
Posted by: flying dutchman | Aug 11 2024 17:36 utc | 74
48, No Name:
As I've frequently explained, you get the wrong impression by just relying on the YT videos. And I say that as someone who enjoys them (although Dima and Weeb are not very good, even within that group). The daily videos always have clickbait titles and emphasize the areas of the front that changed. They don't give you a scale for what is happening quantitively. If you look at sources like War Mapper, it is clear that the rate of advance was much slower than the flashy titles would imply.
For example, Russia took 0.03% (i.e. three ten thousandths of UKR territory) in July. And that was a "good month". In June, they took .01%. (Yet you would never know from the videos with clickbait titles, even that the rate of advances was three times different.) For that matter, even if Russia was able to keep up .03% per month (and not clear yet they can, look at June), AND their only objective was the ~5% of UKR territory within annexed oblasts that are not yet RFA controlled, it would still take them over a decade to get there.
Comparing the rate of advance in first couple days of Kursk versus the months in the Donetsk, it is night and day. Not same thing. Now, of course UKR may slow down or even get pushed out. But to not acknowledge the initial rate of advance is just "coping". If RFA had mounted a similar rapid armored towards Sumy, would you also dismiss their progress? Would you dismiss the planning, intelligence, information security, combined arms operations, etc. that went into it?
-----------
Don't be a coper. Be analytical. That doesn't mean you have to give up. Doesn't mean you have to start talking about Crimea beach parties. But it does mean you need to be honest and intelligent.
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 11 2024 17:37 utc | 75
Not much useful info but it’s the first time I’ve seen it stated that Anduril will focus on applying civilian tech to military systems.
American startup raises $1.5 billion to create defense plant of the futureWe have a great story from the life of the American defense industry here. Anduril Industries closed the 6th round of investments for $1.5 billion. The essence of the business is to increase the efficiency of the US defense industry in the niche of "near-commercial" products and the use of modern technologies. In general, the Americans want to produce more drones than China.
There are many magical stories associated with the founder of the company, 31-year-old Palmer Luckey. For example, he is one of the pioneers of VR, the creator of the famous Oculus company and, in general, more of a "techie" than a "defenseman". By the way, he worked for Facebook for a short time, but did not get along with Zuckerberg. By the way, Luckey often appears in a "bundle" with another famous businessman, Alex Karp, the creator of the famous Palantir spy software affiliated with the CIA. What's funny is that the names of both companies were taken from the works of John Tolkien (Palantir is the all-seeing eye, Anduril is the ancient sword of one of the main characters).
The startup pompously declares its mission to be "rebuilding the arsenal of democracy", plans to build highly efficient production lines of weapons, and specializes in the creation of "autonomous unmanned systems", both air and ground. Simply put, they are going to build huge factories of cheap drones, assembled in huge quantities and from materials available on the commercial market. The reference to the "arsenal of democracy" is clear - at the end of World War II, the United States literally overwhelmed its allies with a huge amount of equipment and gear.
Moreover, all this is positioned at the junction of the "military" and "civilian" industry - roughly speaking, Anduril focuses on dual-use products. However, for now their production volume is very small - about 200 UAVs per year, and the company itself will obviously depend on Pentagon orders. But it looks as if the Americans want to have the ability to quickly deploy drone production and get that very "swarm" of autonomous systems.
True, the factory called "Arsenal-1" exists only as a project, and American venture has proven many times that you can fall to the bottom from any height. But for now there is a strong feeling that behind the company with a talented founder there are completely different people who will definitely not let the project "fall" - at least until all possibilities are completely exhausted.
Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 11 2024 17:39 utc | 76
congratulations, you played yourself.
@Posted by: Justpassinby | Aug 11 2024 16:17 utc | 46
You’re supporting an old KGB officer, that is magically worth billions today, $78 billion is the low estimate. You trust Russian war propaganda, and you can’t admit to yourself, let alone others, that the SMO is a so far a failure.
You got played by a billionaire who used to be in Russia’s secret police. Stop the gaslighting.
Posted by: Napoleon | Aug 11 2024 17:53 utc | 77
Posted by: bored | Aug 11 2024 14:05 utc | 5
My prediction, Putin is gone (one way or another) by the end of the year and Russia is forced into a humiliating peace agreement.
September 6 is the magic date. If by the one month mark of the UAF's invasion of Kursk they are still there in any permanent capacity, you could be right.
However if Putin does leave, I think things could go in a direction completely contrary to the "Russia forced to accept humiliating peace agreement" and more "What would happen if someone like Kadyrov were running the show?" which is not something I believe anyone in Nato or the West is seriously prepared for. They may think that's what they want as it would lead to the kind of escalations Putin has so far avoided but it will be a much different story when things like North Sea oil production go offline or the Houthis get the latest and greatest anti-ship missiles.
Remember, Putin's biggest criticism inside Russia is not that he invaded Ukraine, it's that he's been too soft in dealing with various NATO escalations. Also that he's been too lenient and trusting of incompetent underlings "I'm the political leader and not a General, so I'll leave the Generaling to the Generals and give them the benefit of the doubt" This works if you've got the right people in those spots, but if not more direct intervention is required and we've seen exactly that play out in painful slow motion over the last 2 years.
However, if by Sept 6 the LOC is back at the border or on the other side in Ukraine- nope, not at all. The SMO - Slow Motion Operation- will still be chugging along with bits and pieces of Donetsk slowly getting gobbled up and the RF still slowly and painfully winning. At that point Kursk will have gone down as yet another magic bullet that failed to break Russia, and the list of those is very long indeed!
Posted by: Clown Shoes | Aug 11 2024 17:53 utc | 78
What war have you been watching? In this war NATO proactive escalation dominance meeting Russian passivity/reactivity has been the way of things since Putin first begged for Minsk III talks just a few days in to the "SMO".
Posted by: flying dutchman | Aug 11 2024 17:36 utc | 74
#########
I am watching the war where all of the Western world has been contributing training, weaponry, and ISR while Russia has annihilated 3 Ukrainian armies and captured some of the most valuable real estate in the world (ask BlackRock).
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 11 2024 17:54 utc | 79
I am bringing this comment over from the other Ukraine string because I think it is all but dead no (Ed).
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
"However, in the scheme of thing what does this accomplish for Ukraine? Do they really think they can trade these few villages in Kursk for Crimea?"
Posted by: HB_Norica | Aug 11 2024 14:08 utc | 613
------------------------------------------------------------------------
After listening to a Alexander Mercouris commentary yesterday, I am about 99.99% sure that the intended goal of the NATO/ AFU attempted incursion into the Kursk region was primarily to capture and maintain control of the Kursk NPP. I think that great minds in the US/Nato really thought that they could use the KNPP for a bargaining chip for something.
If so, then some of the French and Polish (English?) speakers overheard by Russians may well have been technicians capable of temporally running the power plant until more technicians and troops could be brought in: Clearly a sign of desperation, but had it been successful, the PR by the western media would have been nauseating to say the least.
I suspect that this won't be the last attempt by the US/NATO.
Posted by: Ed | Aug 11 2024 17:34 utc | 626
Posted by: Ed | Aug 11 2024 17:55 utc | 80
You’re supporting an old KGB officer, that is magically worth billions today, $78 billion is the low estimate. You trust Russian war propaganda, and you can’t admit to yourself, let alone others, that the SMO is a so far a failure.
You got played by a billionaire who used to be in Russia’s secret police. Stop the gaslighting.
Posted by: Napoleon | Aug 11 2024 17:53 utc | 77
#############
You're starting to sound increasingly shrill.
Take a deep breath. Maybe go for a walk.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 11 2024 17:56 utc | 81
Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 11 2024 17:39 utc | 76
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
What US needs to do is to pay its creditors the 35 trillion dollars borrowed and counting.
Posted by: AI | Aug 11 2024 17:57 utc | 82
Some call this the Battle of the (little Z) bulge.
But it looks exactly like the Monty (Python) Market Garden Redux.
A lot of ginned up Brits and "volunteers" eagerly rushing in to be slaughtered.
Let Russia learn one lesson (again) and learn it well. The British Blue Bloods and the Euro Uber Class can never forget the killing of Saxe Coburg Gothe's Nicky and his German Princess. Even though they conveniently whitewash that it is they that gave Lenin the train and boat tickets to Moscow.
Posted by: kupkee | Aug 11 2024 18:01 utc | 83
The barrier between the bears and the onlookers is designed to keep the bear inside. Not designed for the idiot who decides to break into the enclosure!
Give time, and things will work out.
Protein supplement at best.
Posted by: g wiltek | Aug 11 2024 18:03 utc | 84
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 11 2024 17:07 utc | 66
I think this was a spoiling attack by Ukraine. If the Russians aren't moving forces from nearby reserves it kinda plays into that theory.
On the subject of theories Dima was talking about how Belarus moving forces away from the Ukraine border freed up the Ukraine forces that were used in the Kursk operation. Those forces were deployed between the Belarus border and Kiev. This could in fact be a Russian ploy to get them away from guarding Kiev and tied up holding down farming villages in Kursk leaving the road to Kiev wide open. They could have deceived Ukraine into believing an offensive toward Sumy was about to kick off at the same time as Belarus moved back from the border giving Ukraine both motive and opportunity.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Aug 11 2024 18:03 utc | 85
So they won't apply the pressure necessary to cause this breaking until they see the breaking happening first on its own, by magic or spooky action at a distance or something.
It's called attrition, they are trying to avoid WW3 for which there is no guarantee Russia will win. Is attrition the right strategy? Time will tell, what is certain to me now and what was a serious consideration to Russia at the Kherson pullback is that if they stayed out in the open, and now again get out ahead of themselves, NATO will attack with its full air and missile power, striking into Russia, and without hesitation about PR or appearances or waiting for the golden billion sheeple to climb aboard or get with the 'new thing' - war. Just have to look around at Gaza, Iran, China provocations to see what's going on, USA wants WW3 to break out sooner rather than later, RoW is doing all it can to buy time, to prepare militarily, structure alliances, and trying to attrit western finance, pressuring western capitalism, like it's attriting the AFU hoping to avoid the catastrophe. There's a high price to pay for this constant escalation and it has it's own risk of appearing weak, but barreling into ww3 is way the fuck worse for Russia and everyone.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 11 2024 18:05 utc | 86
HB_Norica @ 85
I think this was a spoiling attack by Ukraine. If the Russians aren't moving forces from nearby reserves it kinda plays into that theory.
This would be one of the advantages of Russia going slow and moving forward in the Donbas with an active defense. If they do get into the shit on a new front, Kursk, they can have their Donbas forces go on full defense and be able to move a part of the forces elsewhere.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 11 2024 18:11 utc | 87
My prediction, Putin is gone (one way or another) by the end of the year and Russia is forced into a humiliating peace agreement.
Posted by: bored | Aug 11 2024 14:05 utc | 5
I agree to a point. Putin is an intelligent man. He will be pushed out and retire unless things drastically change. Vlad has so much cash, why risk civil war, as was the case in 1917.
Hopefully Medvedev, Dr. Strangelove, will also be shown the door. He will again be able to post on MofA as Shadowbanned.
After Russia’s similar failure on the Eastern front of WWI, Russia did sign a humiliating peace deal. I don’t think that will happen now. Russia is a superpower and can simply declare a unilateral ceasefire along the front.
Posted by: Napoleon | Aug 11 2024 18:12 utc | 88
HB_Norica | Aug 11 2024 18:03 utc | 85
Could be. Will be interesting to see what eventuates. I do think though that Nato still has a force in 404 to launch a main offensive somewhere, perhaps in the south again.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 11 2024 18:15 utc | 89
^^^
"There's a high price to pay for this constant *de-escalation and it has..."
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 11 2024 18:15 utc | 90
Peter AU1 @ 89
Could be. Will be interesting to see what eventuates. I do think though that Nato still has a force in 404 to launch a main offensive somewhere, perhaps in the south again.
It's cleary part of something bigger so there must be more coming and I'm sure the F16s play a key part, and if it's big then they have a plan B, probably to turn the Kursk Belgorod area into a grey zone. But their track record for plans is awful. Syrsky or someone at the top gave an interview last month saying to not worry they have something coming that will change everything, guess it's here.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 11 2024 18:23 utc | 91
The Belarusian military is deploying tank units to the Ukrainian border, the Defense Ministry has announced. The move comes after Minsk – Moscow’s main ally in the region – claimed to have shot down several Ukrainian drones that it said violated its airspace.
In a statement on Sunday, the ministry said that parts of its mechanized forces had been placed on alert, and that preparations were being made to send tanks and other vehicles by rail to Gomel and Mozyr Regions on Ukraine’s border.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Aug 11 2024 18:23 utc | 92
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 11 2024 17:37 utc | 75
I was merely pointing out that Russia was gaining more ground than bored was implying. Just look at the Battle of Avdeevka.
The titles are clickbait, but I think that for example Defense Politics Asia is quite neutral in his reporting.
You write „to not acknowledge the initial rate of advance…“ I was not talking about the Ukrainian advance (which looks somehow impressive) I was just reacting to the opinion, that Russia just take meters. Even if it was only a figure of speech, it is bullshit.
And the personal insult at the end goes right back at you.
Posted by: NoName | Aug 11 2024 18:25 utc | 93
The thread a microcosm of the conflict. Starts with a belligerent American who grifts thousands of miles from the muck and bullets.
Then a sudden burst of troll fire, quickly suppressed and outgunned by reports of material reality. Notwithstanding the resilience and courage of those defending civilians, these lives are wasted in the name of get rich quick schemes of oligarchs….
Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 11 2024 17:39 utc | 76
So this Anduril concern, they have raised $1.5 billion in funding based on making so far 200 UAVs and their ‘Arsenal 1’ factory doesn’t exist beyond a plan. Maybe they should call it Arsenal nil. I expect the resident psychiatric patient Napoleon will be eager to invest.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Aug 11 2024 18:33 utc | 94
And the personal insult at the end goes right back at you.
Posted by: NoName | Aug 11 2024 18:25 utc | 93
The Putin fans are attacking anyone who doesn’t parrot Russian propaganda. They are also emotionally lashing out at us, unable to deal with the pain of their shattered illusions about the SMO and their fantasy that Ukraine is a failed state, an assertion that only makes Russia look even more pathetic.
Posted by: Napoleon | Aug 11 2024 18:34 utc | 95
Posted by: Napoleon | Aug 11 2024 18:12 utc | 88
+++++++++++++++++++++
Russian border will extend all the way to Poland and country 404 will sink deep down even further without the need to ever push the red buttom. EU will completely collapse starting with the desintegration of Berlin and Paris and the US will not come to their rescue for that matter. No weapon in the sky would be able to defeat the Russian military and its Supremacy above all. And wait I have not mentioned Russia's friends like China, Iran and Northe Korea either who will commit to the very end of this mission.
Posted by: AI | Aug 11 2024 18:34 utc | 96
Let's do some Fermi estimation here.
1. Figure a 200km front on eastern Ukraine. I'm too lazy to look it up, exactly. Good chance it is more. Certainly more if you include the northern border. But for simplicity.
2. Figure a "bad month", like June (which by the way, nobody here acknowledged as a bad month), where they take 50 kmsq. Again this is for the math. If you want to double or triple it, fine.
3. So that is 50sq km over 200km. Or an increase of depth of 250 m, in a month.
4. Divide by 30, to get advance per day. That is ~8 meters per day.
---------
So, yes meters per day, along the line of contact.
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 11 2024 18:34 utc | 97
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 11 2024 17:37 utc | 75
It’s not the taking that counts, it’s the cost you paid for it, v’s the reward gained, the length you retained it for and the initial reason you took the decision to take it. On numerous occasions Russia could have advanced further, faster, but they chose not to, as it was against their overall operational purpose. Ukraine does not have that choice, due to force composition, pressure to be seen to be ‘winning’ and the operational situation (collapsing Eastern Front) they were forced into this reckless offensive.
‘If RFA had mounted a similar rapid armoured move towards Sumy, would you also dismiss their progress? Would you dismiss the planning, intelligence, information security, combined arms operations, etc. that went into it?’
Yes, if they bungled the initial stages as badly as the Ukrainians, (no D+1-2 objectives secured), I’d also be very concerned why they had taken such a reckless action, if the situation was reversed, and your dismissal of the danger of a Ukrainian reversal with a pithy, ‘now of course’, as though it’s just a setback is illuminating. As I said before, this is a plan that was overly ambitious, relying on all its predictions to be correct (including the enemy’s likely reaction). It was clever, clever, not clever, the product of desperation, and/or incompetence. I see it being used in the future as a contemporary case study to illustrate the dangers of group-think and planners using incorrect historical examples to inform their initial decisions.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 11 2024 18:35 utc | 98
Posted by: Napoleon | Aug 11 2024 18:34 utc | 95
Since you addressed me directly I will give you one answer: I consider a discussion with you as worthless.
Posted by: NoName | Aug 11 2024 18:42 utc | 99
Posted by: Napoleon | Aug 11 2024 18:34 utc | 95
Which shattered illusions would these people have?
And which people?
Which Putin fans?
Who is "us"?
The only thing I agree with you is that too many people fall for propaganda - any propaganda. Me included.
From late March 2022, everyone knew that it would take years, as NATO was ramping up its already huge support even more.
And I absolutely dislike the term of "SMO". Это война.
Posted by: Verdant | Aug 11 2024 18:43 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
On Friday whilst driving I did something unusual and listened to BBC Radio 4, which is non stop UK establishment propaganda.
I happened to catch Kurt Volker being interviewed about the NATO Ukraine adventure in Kursk. The interviewer accepted everything he said without question. Volker parroted the Ukraine must win line, but added nihilism saying twice “what is Russia going to do? They’ve already invaded, so how could it get any worse?” When asked about Russian escalation and nuclear use, Volker was so dismissive as to give a wry “Well we don’t think this will happen”. The usual pro NATO pro proxy war bullshit served up for non thinking British ultra bourgeois Radio 4 listeners.
Barflies please help here, as you must know more than me on Kurt Volker as he was part of the Trump impeachment while he had been made US Special Representative to Ukraine Negotiations by Rex Tillerson in 2017. The BBC didn’t ask him anything about why he resigned this position or the circumstances around it despite it all being related to Ukraine.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/27/us/politics/volker-ukraine-resigns.html
Doing a cursory search, Kurt Volker is ex CIA and has held various NATO positions since the 1990s. The BBC didn’t ask about what involvement he had in Yugoslavia, or if it was just a coincidence that the same person has been heavily involved in the two largest wars in Europe in the past 80 years. It was radio, but it was quite easy to imagine Kurt Volker wearing a black hooded gown and holding a scythe.
Married to a Georgian journalist and citing Machiavelli and discredited historian Timothy Snyder as his favourite authors, when Kurt Volker is not fomenting death and destruction he works in ‘the private sector’ for:
The Wall Street Fund Inc
Capital Guardian Funds Trust
Evercore Wealth Management Macro Opportunity Fund
McLarty Associates
BGR Group
The Atlantic Council
The BBC did not ask Kurt Volker if he or the companies he works for have any vested interest or investments that would benefit from ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, or potential gains from investments made in Ukraine.
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/01/ukraine-lobbyists-washington-defense-industry
Volker himself wrote this, ready for publication on the first day of the Russian SMO
https://cepa.org/article/buckle-up-this-is-just-the-first-step/
Details of the lobbying
https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-lobbying/firms/summary?cycle=2022&id=D000021679
MSM acknowledge some people are getting rich from the death and destruction
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/18/us/politics/defense-contractors-ukraine-russia.html
In full flow. Have a sick bucket at the ready.
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2024/04/04/us-ukraine-russia-gaza-israel-kurt-volker-amanpour.cnn
The sleazy career of Kurt Volker
https://prospect.org/impeachment/sleazy-career-of-kurt-volker-ukraine-hungary/
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Aug 11 2024 13:37 utc | 1