Posted by: News from Cassad | Aug 9 2024 10:20 utc | 300 “100s of Russian troops in trucks killed”
Maybe a 100?
https://x.com/i/status/1821805704237228502

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 9 2024 10:35 utc | 304

This is really embarrassing to those of us who actually do support the Russian side in the war. Apparently, the game plan is to spend more than two and a half years fiddle-fucking around with an enemy 1/5th your size, and continue to ship gas exports across their border even as they are sending armed troops across yours. I guess that’s how “existential wars” are supposed to be fought. I must have missed that chapter of Sun Tzu.

Posted by: Gnome Sane | Aug 9 2024 10:40 utc | 306

About all this incursion is going to achieve for Ukraine, is to further lengthen the frontlines when they are already short on everything.
I very much doubt Russia will simply pull up at the border, Which means Ukraine/Nato will have to put in more non existent forces and equipment there just to hold the line.
A lot of tanks and other vehicles have already been knocked out in the Sumy/Kursk sector…..

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 9 2024 10:45 utc | 308

I will also add that anyone using the word “embarrassing” when describing a war is an idiot whose time and intelligence better suited watching reality TV instead, since they demand being impressed so much.

Posted by: boneless | Aug 9 2024 10:47 utc | 310

@ JamesBond | Aug 9 2024 10:47 utc | 311
Clearly the result of “Dictator Putin’s Iron Hand” with a dedicated NKVD officer watching over every single civilian. Seriously though, there’s nobody around to cure stupidity, unfortunately.

Posted by: boneless | Aug 9 2024 10:50 utc | 312

t does seem to suggest that Russian ISR, although greatly improved, does not possess some of the capabilities of its Western counterparts. I wonder if seeding the likely routes with acoustic sensors, an Operation Igloo Whiteski , but with added drones, might be a solution.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 9 2024 10:28 utc | 301
China is the only peer level of the US in satellite ISR.
It’s hard to fight seeing the battlefield in a 30 km band every 4 hours (when the enemy probably has AI seeing 24/24 for most of the territory) Canopus B/Kanopus V, as I discussed months ago, has orbitals that allow overpass only every 24 hours, half a dozen satellites is too few for confort, you can send huge amounts of troops over long distances in the intervening time.
Getting back to tech, S mentioning that lancets were effectively countered by the AFU is troubling, it was the one thing that basically stoped AFU from using equipment in the open.
A final issue has little to do with tech, how strong is the AFU raiding party? Some are still discussing in the low thousands, but I’d be surprised if we’re not talking 5 digits.

Posted by: Newbie | Aug 9 2024 10:53 utc | 314

@312,
Indeed, for a “ruthless dictatorship” that keeps everything in check (Hand of Putin everywhere) there are plenty of idiots that prefer to sacrifice their freedom and even undermining their nation for a quick buck. Madness and stupidity runs riot on some RU “citizens”.

Posted by: JamesBond | Aug 9 2024 10:56 utc | 316

@315,
Yes, I have read that he was arrested. But that doesn’t change anything, there are plenty of other idiots in line that will do it again when another situation occurs. Maybe there is a mental disease there in Russia when it comes to phones and filming stuff.

Posted by: JamesBond | Aug 9 2024 11:10 utc | 318

https://t.me/milinfolive/127963

On the fourth day of the invasion, the enemy was finally stopped within the framework of its breakthrough of the first two days.
Thanks to the arriving reserves of the Russian Armed Forces, the Ukrainian troops sharply lost the pace of advance and began to dig in where they could, which means a possible refusal from further active offensive actions .
Thus, the Ministry of Defense listed in its report the settlements of the Kursk region where attacks were carried out on the breakthrough equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. And all the same were on the arena – Dar’ino , Gogolevka , Melovoy , Nikolsky , Sudzha , Yuzhny . The only new thing here is Martynovka , located on the highway northeast of Sudzha, but we have already reported on the presence of enemy groups near it .
The enemy’s digging in in this situation is not only good, but also bad news , since now the Russian army will have to methodically drive the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the Russian settlements they have occupied, which will inevitably lead to the destruction of infrastructure facilities, as well as residential and administrative buildings.
Nevertheless, it can be stated that the plan of the Ukrainian Armed Forces , which we proposed on the first day, to try to create a point of tension and force the Russian Armed Forces to pull their reserves there, worked partially – the reserves went. However, there is no evidence that this transfer of forces has somehow affected other sections of the front . In addition, the advance of the Ukrainian army was clearly not as deep as they expected. This suggests that no army corps with tens of thousands of people , which were panickedly listed in the telegram, were deployed by the enemy in the border area .
At the same time, the opening of the “second front” by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to Rylsk , which seemed logical from the outside, has not yet happened , which also plays into the claims about the limitations of the forces deployed by the enemy. It seems that he simply cannot afford a large-scale offensive operation with the combined forces of more than a couple of army brigades simultaneously at least in two areas, even within the same direction. As we said two days ago – with the current configuration, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will no longer be able to reach Kurchatov.

https://t.me/milinfolive/127952

Regarding the column destroyed at night near Rylsk.
Since there are already photos of HIMARS MLRS missile fragments found in the Kursk region, we can confidently say that the column standing 40 km from the border was hit by them, and not by any kamikaze drones. Moreover, the nature of the consequences there speaks for itself.
In order to hit a column with a fire weapon aimed at a significant distance and adjusted by satellite navigation, it is necessary for this very column, like a herd of dumb sheep, to stand in the open and not move anywhere until a reconnaissance drone finds it, transmits information and they work on it.
Moreover, people were also left sitting in the backs of the parked trucks, which turned the destruction of the column into a real massacre. Locals passing by have already filmed everything, since the consequences remained until the morning.
All this is a consequence not only of the impenetrable stupidity of a specific person who organized the movement of a column near the border for the third year, and then its standstill, but also a consequence of the general situation of chaotic concentrating of reserves in the breakthrough area, for which they were not prepared at all. This is already another parallel drawn with the fall of 2022 in the Kharkov region, where the enemy also hit the columns with reserves with “Hymars” that were going to plug the front.
Once again, we see no point in moaning about the inability to learn. We are simply describing the facts, perhaps someone will remember it as it should not.

The contours of a battlefield flooded with low cost guided rocket artillery, fired from low cost launch platforms, should be obvious to anyone who bothers to contemplate it.

Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 9 2024 11:21 utc | 320

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 9 2024 5:01 utc | 260 ” A sitting President was pushed out of office”
Last I heard, Biden is still president and it looks like he will be president until his term ends in January 2025.
I didn’t say “Are you so sure the West is paying no costs” I said “This costs the West very little.” The total amount sent to support Ukraine is not even 1% of GDP? Russian will spend about 7% of GDP on it? Hard to be sure as Russia has stopped publishing a lot of economic statistics. Russia has had economic growth based on the war. How useful it will have been after the war is over is questionable. Making tanks boosts GDP, but have limited usefulness after the war is over.
Maybe you should look at this based on your post here:
By virtue of NATO having to transport these weapons to the front, makes them much more valuable a target than if they were struck in some warehouse in Poland.It’s not just the actual weapon but the time setting up a logistics chain, staging fuel and parts for that machine, investing weeks in training soldiers to operate it. Only when all of that investment is made, do I want to strike the final blow rendering it all ineffective. Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jan 29 2023 18:55 utc | 73
The Ukrainian equipment getting destroyed in Kursk must be the most valuable yet 🙂
Don’t worry,Russia will rally to end Ukraine’s Kursk adventure. But my guess is, in the larger picture, the fighting along the entire front has no quick end in sight.
I don’t see a lot of overlap between what the US has sent Ukraine and what it has or might send Israel beyond 155mm rounds. That seems to be the thing with the least supply? Any other suggestions as to that? Particularly as the US is actually been doing some fighting for Israel while it has not been doing so for Ukraine. By that I mean bombing Yemen and shooting down some Iranian missiles and drones.
As to Africa, it looks like Russia has had a bit of a setback there with the their forces getting hit hard a few weeks ago.

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 9 2024 11:28 utc | 322

unimperator | Aug 9 2024 10:51 utc | 313

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 9 2024 11:32 utc | 324

unimperator | Aug 9 2024 10:51 utc | 313
According to the Ukie tg channels, a force of 2000 (not sure if that is total or on top of the initial 300) used to date.
Russia MoD say they have destroyed over 900 so far.
Now the Ukies are trying to scrape up reserves to send in, so MoD numbers a likely right.
Hard to know what numbers of missiles the Ukies still have at this point. HIMARS, SCALP and tochka-U have all been used in the in large numbers apparently. If they are getting low on those missiles it will be a lot easier going for Russia to push them out.
And just like Russia taking the back areas of the Ukie/Nato offensive, it is likely Nato has been doing the same re targeting reserves coming in. I would assume that is why the counter offensive has gotten off to a slow start.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 9 2024 11:42 utc | 326

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 9 2024 11:29 utc | 323
‘The decision to allow the French Army to attack the Germans, using tactics from the previous century, beggars belief. Which idiot in the General Staff fell asleep during lectures about the Franco-Prussian War, Boer War and the Russo-Japanese war that showed the devastating capabilities of the bolt action rifle and machine gun.
‘The decision to allow the Armada to sit defenceless, whilst English fire ships bore down on them……….
‘The loss of virtually an entire Tank Army at Prokhorovka, and then again outside Kharkov, was caused by their commanders seeing tanks as little more than armoured horses engaged in a charge…..’
‘The question on every Roman citizens lips, if they have but half a brain, is how, by the gods, could the Roman Army be outflanked/ambushed/outfought by…………….’
What on earth did the Luftwaffe (replace with USAAF) think would happen if they sent unescorted bombers over Britain,(Germany) in the DAY TIME’.
Why oh why did Harold decide not to wait before deciding to march towards the invading Normans, initiating the now infamous battle on Senlac Hill?’

Posted by: Milites | Aug 9 2024 12:19 utc | 328

🇷🇺🇺🇦🎞 Tactics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk Region: video
Yesterday we already wrote that in the Kursk region the Ukrainian Armed Forces acted almost according to the Balakleya scenario : a breakthrough to maximum depth with the pinning down of stationary positions by battle and ambushes on military columns and civilian equipment.
Our video shows this clearly.
As a rule, one such mobile sabotage and reconnaissance group consists of three to six armored vehicles (Cossack or Humvee – it makes no difference). While a third of them are holding down the stronghold, the others are bypassing it, entering nearby settlements and setting up ambushes.
Reinforcements are shot at along the way, as is civilian transport, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces leave populated areas after a brief inspection.
Yesterday, using this tactic, the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to reach Bolshoye Soldatskoye and further along the Sudzha-Dyakonovo highway. And in the Lgov direction, an armored group, which included a tank, advanced to Ivnitsa .
📍As a result, the fighters, tied down by the battle, reported a large-scale enemy offensive, while other units saw Ukrainian Armed Forces equipment literally in every populated area (although these were the same sabotage and reconnaissance groups, successively visiting village after village), and the picture at headquarters was depressing.
And in the end, when further reconnaissance was carried out, it was discovered that there was no enemy in the populated area.
📌Such tactics allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to achieve the main result: panic and entry into operational space, where there are no pre-prepared positions. In order to effectively combat this, it is necessary, alas, to admit that it is impossible to do without dense mining of probable routes of advancement and the equipment of reinforced positions at the main transport hubs.
@rybar

https://t.me/two_majors/29234

Posted by: Down South | Aug 9 2024 12:58 utc | 330

❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Kherson direction: aborted landing of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Kinburn Peninsula
situation as of 11:00 august 9, 2024
For the second time in a week, Ukrainian forces attempted to land troops in the west of the Kherson region.
If on August 6 a similar attempt was recorded on the Tendrovskaya Spit , then this morning the emphasis was placed on the Kinburn Peninsula.
▪️At two o’clock in the morning, Ukrainian drones, under the cover of Ukrainian electronic warfare, began to work on Russian positions in Pokrovskoe . In total, up to four boats and two Baba Yaga-type drones of the enemy took part in the raid.
▪️The goal of the operation was to seize the building of the sea terminal and provide a bridgehead for further landing of troops. One of the boats managed to approach the shore and land: during the landing, several members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were blown up by mines, while the remaining ones entered into a firefight with Russian servicemen.
▪️By 7am, the enemy threat had been eliminated: one of the boats with the landing force had been destroyed, and the rest had retreated. Russian troops began inspecting the seaport area.
Plans to capture the Kinburn Peninsula have not changed since 2022 : it is one of the desired targets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and if a bridgehead is captured from there , it can move by land to the central regions of the Kherson region and affect communications.
🔻Such a landing could have been avoided in principle if there had been a sufficient number of FPV drone operators and reconnaissance equipment in the area.
Unfortunately, in conditions when all media attention was focused on Krynki and the island zone , a clear lack of forces and resources began to be felt on the Kinburn Peninsula that would have allowed the landing to be disrupted at the stage of its approach to the Russian coast.
With the proper emphasis, the landing situation – even if suicidal – could have been avoided in principle by destroying the landing force in the waters.
📌Against the backdrop of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ offensive in the Kursk direction , the enemy command will try to create tension points in several areas at once. In addition to the notorious media effect, all this will also be used to demonstrate the Kiev regime’s offensive capabilities in order to achieve expanded military support from sponsors.
@rybar

https://t.me/two_majors/29237

Posted by: Down South | Aug 9 2024 13:00 utc | 332

🇷🇺🇺🇦 While battles are ongoing in the Kursk Region, the AFU conducted a combined raid on the border and rear regions of Russia. This is the second such attack in the past week – the previous one took place on August 3.
▪️In the Lipetsk Region, AFU drones attacked the Lipetsk-2 airfield in the regional center. One of the hits was on an ammunition depot, residents of nearby villages were briefly evacuated, and nine people were injured. Preliminary data indicates that the aircraft managed to avoid the strike.
▪️In the Belgorod Region, the targets were the settlements of Stary and Novy Oskol, with damage reported to residential buildings and industrial enterprises.
▪️In the Kursk Region, air defense activity was noted in the sky over Kurchatov, which the enemy has been shelling for the fourth day in a row, as well as in the Rylsk District. Unfortunately, in the latter, a column of Russian Armed Forces personnel was hit, resulting in casualties.
▪️The enemy also carried out another combined raid on the Crimean Peninsula. Three drones were shot down on the approach to Sevastopol, and five unmanned boats were sunk, while another drone was intercepted in the Orlovka area, and a Neptune cruise missile was destroyed over the Black Sea. In total, five drones were shot down and seven USVs were sunk in the region.
▪️Several drones were shot down in the skies over the Oryol, Voronezh and Bryansk Regions, with no casualties or consequences on the ground.
❗️As in previous cases, video materials quickly appeared online, helping the enemy assess the effectiveness of the strikes – this again raises the question that the current measures to combat this phenomenon are insufficient. At the same time, there is news that a local resident who filmed the results of the strikes in the Rylsk District has been detained on espionage charges.
@rybar

https://t.me/geromanat/31243

Posted by: Down South | Aug 9 2024 13:07 utc | 334

Our source reports that the Russian Armed Forces have received an unofficial order not to take anyone alive in the Kursk region.
In fact, all the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers who are currently in the Kursk region are suicide bombers.
Bankovaya is aware of this order, but continues to send Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers to attack in the Kursk direction.
The Kursk adventure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces may ultimately cost the Ukrainian army dearly.
We will add that this Kursk adventure can only be justified if it is not the main attack, but a distraction, and if in another direction, during the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, there is a large-scale territorial success.
But all sources are confident that it will be difficult for Bankovaya to maintain this pace for more than a month and a half. Then the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have a severe deficit in everything, which will lead to further failures at the front.

https://t.me/legitimniy/18501

Posted by: Down South | Aug 9 2024 13:13 utc | 336

I must have missed that chapter of Sun Tzu.
Posted by: Gnome Sane | Aug 9 2024 10:40 utc | 306
You missed the chapter that says “wars are expensive and governments at war need a source of income”
You seem to want the Russians to shoot themselves in the foot by cutting off the income coming from pipeline infrastructure that Russians have invested good money in.
You got the situation backwards … it should be the EU and Ukraine cutting off a Russian source of revenue not the other way around. Their the ones who have been sanctioning Russia and blowing up pipelines.
The Russians don’t pay Ukraine for allowing their gas to transit Ukraine … the consumer pays the bills not the suppliers.
For whatever reason EU consumers keep the gas flowing and paying both the Ukraine and Russia for that service … the west has to pay Ukraine’s bills regardless so perhaps keeping the gas transit fees flowing is less of a burden than straight up charity?

Posted by: HB_Norica | Aug 9 2024 14:00 utc | 338

This was at the top of the weekly report of the RMD.

The Sever Group of Forces continue to repel attempts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to invade the territory of the Russian Federation in Kursk direction. Army aviation strikes and artillery fire are foiling raid operations of the enemy targeting the depth of the Russian Federation.
Since the beginning of hostilities in this direction, the enemy has lost up to 945 troops and 102 armoured vehicles, including 12 tanks, 17 armoured personnel carriers, six infantry fighting vehicles, 67 armoured fighting vehicles, 12 motor vehicles, two Buk M1 self-propelled artillery systems, and three field artillery guns.
Moreover, the Group hit manpower and military hardware of one mechanised brigade, one motorised infantry brigade, and two assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, one marine brigade, and three territorial defence brigades in Volchansk and Liptsy directions.
Seven counter-attacks of AFU assault group were repelled.

Timed at 16:15

Posted by: Lantern Dude | Aug 9 2024 14:48 utc | 340

Ukraine Weekly Update, 9th August 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-44e

Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Aug 9 2024 16:58 utc | 342

🍺 FREE DRINKS AT THE BAR FOLKS 🍺

Posted by: HERMIUS | Aug 9 2024 20:23 utc | 344

‘Ukrainian’ forces enter Belgorod.
https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-forces-entered-another-russian-oblast-media-say

Posted by: La Camarade | Aug 10 2024 15:35 utc | 346

@LoveDonbass | Aug 8 2024 20:18 utc | 120

Ermak explained Ukranian demands:
– 1991 borders
– reparations
– all-for-all prisoner exchange
– trials for Russians
– security guarantees
– a new security architecture in Europe

I vaguely remember reading somewhere that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Rossia and Ukraina never agreed on the delimitation of their borders. At the time, I understood that Ukraine had been persistently delaying the resolution of this issue.
I might be wrong.
Isn’t it doubleplusgood if Ukraine is yet another country with undefined borders screaming about violation of its territory?

Posted by: scanalyse | Aug 10 2024 22:42 utc | 348

Ukraine wins by not losing, by showing that Russia is not impermeable.
The NATO effort is being directed by AI and Russia has no counter.
Agent-based models and AI directly convert NATO’s superiority in MWh energy production, data centers and compute/AI research.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/can-the-west-still-win-analyzing https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/can-the-west-still-win-analyzing
Simplicuis is expounding on theoretical breakthroughs, whereas NATO has concretely instantiated a super-weapon. If NATO has made such a practical breakthrough, then it will be obvious.
It will make it look like Russian weapons and staff are incompetent, but really, it is just a major innovation in warfare they simply cannot match or understand.
Emergent behavior by local rules creates global behavior can allow Ukraine particles to traverse the Russian semi-permeable membrane, modeled as percolative effect. See NetLOGO forest fire models and Sugarscape wars. Ai selects and iterates via simulation local rules that allow favorable emergent conditions.
Posted by: ICPtasking | Aug 10 2024 13:37 utc | 345
Please, invoking AI for a very simple dice rolling maneuver is something that amazes me, given the respect I have for the participants in these chats. The Ukros advance!!! so where do they go? to take a nuclear power plant to blackmail Russia? Russia was not under blackmail even when it had 2,000,000 enemies within spitting distance of Moscow and had lost an entire army. My idea is… either the new departments do the job they were called to do or the Helmsman changes (to my great disappointment). Borrowing from an episode of the godfather in which the boss said: there is an “adviser” for peace but now it is war and we need to change. We will see the consequences, but they will not be pleasant. One thing is clear, the USA is governed by those who govern Israel, whatever you say! So there are no dead ends.

Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Aug 10 2024 23:13 utc | 350

LEMMNING1 | Aug 10 2024 23:13 utc | 350
Lemmings are renowned for jumping off cliffs, drowning themselves in the sea.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 11 2024 4:31 utc | 352

Getting back to tech, S mentioning that lancets were effectively countered by the AFU is troubling, it was the one thing that basically stoped AFU from using equipment in the open.
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 9 2024 10:53 utc | 314
Still a lot of Lancet strikes published on Lost Armour. More than sixty since the first of August and almost 1400 since January 1, 2024.
Granted, video published on a certain day/month doesn‘t mean, it is from that day.

Posted by: NoName | Aug 11 2024 8:41 utc | 354