Incidentally, the beauty of this Kursk operation is that Budanov is likely in the area as it is under his command.
He’s within Russias sights now!
BOOM!

Posted by: HERMIUS | Aug 8 2024 22:15 utc | 203

Uhm! Ukro losses etc… In EU there are about 2,000,0000 Ukro, now in Poland they have started to enlist them or to send them back home. Therefore the illusion that the cannon fodder will run out is to be discarded.
Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Aug 8 2024 18:40 utc | 87
Uhm! War Refugees are mostly women and children, No? Males were and are still imprisoned inside UKee borders.
Uhm! If Poland is ‘enlisting’ male UKees then would they not just hitchhike out of Poland?
The ‘cannon fodder’ have a mind and feet of their own, and have previously made their choice. Sending some draft dodgers back may lead to fragging.
The illusion may partly exist in your imagination.
Recruiting African and West Asian migrants could be the unlimited cannon fodder that you dream.

Posted by: jopalolive | Aug 8 2024 22:24 utc | 205

If you’re someone like Vargas, and have any shame, you may want to read this timely article by Will Schryver about the SMO.
Ok, Doomer
Slavic fatalism doesn’t have to be a fatal condition.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 8 2024 22:29 utc | 207

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 8 2024 22:12 utc | 199
I doubt the SF units ever left, just slunk back into their hides and directed CAS/Art and drones. One USMC recon team, caught in Khafji, wreaked havoc on Iraqi units transiting to the front and the SAS hid at the end of an Argentine runway signalling when flights took off. I doubt the RU SF are any less proficient.
Probably a good reason for the Kursk distraction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jCfb1ww80E

Posted by: Milites | Aug 8 2024 22:39 utc | 209

Uhm! Ukro losses etc… In EU there are about 2,000,0000 Ukro, now in Poland they have started to enlist them or to send them back home. Therefore the illusion that the cannon fodder will run out is to be discarded.
Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Aug 8 2024 18:40 utc | 87
Uhm! War Refugees are mostly women and children, No? Males were and are still imprisoned inside UKee borders.
Uhm! If Poland is ‘enlisting’ male UKees then would they not just hitchhike out of Poland?
The ‘cannon fodder’ have a mind and feet of their own, and have previously made their choice. Sending some draft dodgers back may lead to fragging.
The illusion may partly exist in your imagination.
Recruiting African and West Asian migrants could be the unlimited cannon fodder that you dream.
Posted by: jopalolive | Aug 8 2024 22:24 utc | 205
Evidently those I see walking in dense crowds in my country are women and children 1m 80cm tall with false beards and a lot of steroids taken on the street ….
It doesn’t matter if you are enlisted by force or in any other way, but slipped into a uniform and with a rifle in your hand and with barrier troops behind you, you either fight or die, more or less voluntarily!

Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Aug 8 2024 22:40 utc | 211

It doesn’t matter if you are enlisted by force or in any other way, but slipped into a uniform and with a rifle in your hand and with barrier troops behind you, you either fight or die, more or less voluntarily!
Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Aug 8 2024 22:40 utc | 211
____
I’d say (maybe) fight and (certainly) die. They won’t be adequately trained or equipped, let alone motivated.
Then of course there’s the little matter of how flagrantly the EU “garden” states will violate their own laws and principles in forcing them back. But when there are no principles, laws are pretty meaningless.

Posted by: malenkov | Aug 8 2024 22:48 utc | 213

Tom_Q_Collins @ 194
Hey thanks for turning us on to that guy’s substack!
He’s a pretty good writer – I really enjoyed his “Weapons Are the New Oil” series

Posted by: Ezzie | Aug 8 2024 23:03 utc | 215

Posted by: Tichy | Aug 8 2024 22:58 utc | 214
Just checked ZH right now, it seems like it really has. Lots of action Zionist entity in Syria. Striking the base Trump hit which often houses Russian soldiers.
EEKS.
Eight Eight. I’ve heard that term before. Seems appropriate for the start of WW3.

Posted by: lex talionis | Aug 8 2024 23:11 utc | 217

Do you think that Russia is destabilized?
Do you think that Russia is vulnerable? How?
Do you think that Russia can be defeated?
Do you think that RUAF is incompetent?
Do you think that Russian villages can be turned into urkonazis strongholds?
Do you think that holding civilians as hostages is a war crime?
Which new phase in the war is starting now?
Btw several ukronazis generals and staff were destroyed near Kharkov in the night 6-7 August. So yes the leadershipt was “couped”, but not the one you expected.
Posted by: Naive | Aug 8 2024 22:09 utc | 193
Yes, losing territory diminishes trust jn your leaders.
Yes, they have lost significant assets (Moskva, Kherson retreat, Kharkov retreat, awacs planes) until now but this is the worst.
Yes they can be defeated if the people dont want to fight.
Every Army is incompetent partly.
Yes just like in donbass, existsing concrete buildings, minefields etc.
Of course its a war crime but who will prosecute it?
The new phase will start unless they deal with this quickly I should have stated.

Posted by: alek_a | Aug 8 2024 23:20 utc | 219

Posted by: alek_a | Aug 8 2024 23:20 utc | 219
——————————————————————
alek a, read some comments besides your own. See LoveDonbass | Aug 8 2024 22:12 utc | 199 then go to bed and give it a rest. In fact, just look @ # 220 above.

Posted by: Ed | Aug 8 2024 23:27 utc | 221

Posted by: Napoleon | Aug 8 2024 23:31 utc | 222
Hey NAFOlemon, what is it that you lack in real life that you come here to defend the ukro-terrorists and their handlers from MI6/CIA? Your penis too small? Your only girlfriend is your right hand? You know you’re not normal, and that we know you’re not normal, right? Nobody cares what you have to say…

Posted by: Boo | Aug 8 2024 23:41 utc | 223

Not territory, not moving front lines, but Dispersion.
scattering small saboteur groups to the winds, targeting factories, refineries, rail, comms, airfields, etc.
explosives, drones, manpads, stealth comms, drone-based resupply.
– is how i would be thinking about this
2¢

Posted by: Father Dougal | Aug 8 2024 23:45 utc | 225

Honestly people please remember
1. NATO is trying to provoke Russia into a full on attack which will horrify the rest of the world and break the links with BRICS and others. That is why they constantly cross red lines. Russia knows this and is holding back. The idiots here who call for more aggression here are playing into the hands of NATO if in fact they are not already trolls. Within Russia many especially in the military do not see this. Military types rarely see these thing in ANY nation.
2. Many military types in NATO actually want to provoke Russia into using tactical nukes. Presumably they think this would give them the excuse to launch attacks on Russia. Presumably also they calculate that NATO would come out the winner of the nuclear exchange that would surely follow.
3. I will repeat this because I got zero response which means either people did not read it or are trolls. Russia CANNOT protect its entire border with significant force numbers or air defence or air superiority or anything. It has HUGE border. The task is next to impossible. Already struggling in the Soviet days, Russian power collapsed in the 1990s. It has been rebuilding as swiftly as possible but there can almost never be enough. So what Russia MUST do is leave minimal troops/defences in lower priority areas. Cut the bloody CRAP about traitors etc. Military make judgement calls. Sometimes they are wrong, sometimes they have no choice.
4. The Kursk region is at present for Russia relatively low on the priorities based on risk. St Petersburg is Russia’s most vulnerable city along with Kalingrad. That along with the Sea of Azov region including Crimea are vital to protect. Moscow comes next but it is a good deal further inland. I am no military strategist but I would assume that the sensible way for Russia to manage its huge border with enemy states Finland and Ukraine, is that is areas where there is NOT intense fighting they would hod back some reserves/fire power at points along the border but at a distance so they could use a “whack a mole” approach. They would work on the assumption that if there is an enemy breakthrough that these reserves could get there quickly enough to prevent major damage. Risky yes but less risky than depleting strength in the Donbass or Sea of Azov or keeping a watchful eye along other borders which includes even the USA in Siberia.

Posted by: watcher | Aug 8 2024 23:59 utc | 227

https://t.me/rybar_in_english/16818
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Kursk Direction: Deployment of “Fire Brigades” and Hunting for AFU Recon Groups
What is known as of the end of August 8, 2024
By 6 PM, the Russian grouping of troops (forces) began clearing the breakthrough zone and eliminating the consequences. This task is primarily assigned to special forces units, as well as special operations forces groups. In addition, there have already been reports of the deployment of units from the “African Corps” (most likely, detachments from the Krasnodar Territory). The main efforts continue to be concentrated in the Korenevo and Sudzha districts.
Due to the fog of war, lack of objective control personnel, as well as “soldier’s radio”, the situation was only fully clarified by the end of the day: the previous advances of the AFU with the control of certain areas of the territory are explained by the activity of Ukrainian recon groups.
📍Ukrainian recon groups tied down Russian checkpoints in combat and bypassed them, entering as many empty settlements as possible. Due to confusion and control problems, the scale of the enemy’s advance was exaggerated, which played into the hands of sowing panic.
🔻In the Sudzha district, after building up the grouping in Bolshoye Soldatovo, the clearing of the highway began.
▪️Ukrainian formations maintain stable control over Goncharovka and western Sudzha. Footage of looting of houses and removal of stolen goods has appeared online.
▪️In eastern Sudzha, according to fragmentary information, there is a focal presence of territorial defense units and Russian troops. At the same time, the work of AFU recon groups is also noted there, whose task is not to capture and control the administrative center, but to sow panic and achieve a media effect.
▪️In the morning, Ukrainian mobile recon groups bypassed eastern Sudzha and went further along the highway. In the evening, Russian forces engaged a Ukrainian unit in Martynivka, while simultaneously clearing the forest area and surrounding villages.
🔻In the Korenevo district, attempts to occupy the administrative center actually turned into attempts by the AFU to quickly clear the strongholds and capture Korenevo. After repelling them, the main AFU forces dispersed in the area of the breakthrough section.
▪️In Snagost, Russian troops began clearing, trying to push Ukrainian groups out of this area.
▪️Online, footage was recorded of Ukrainian groups in Novoivanovka and Lyubimovka – these are the nearest settlements to Korenevo, which are under the conditional control of the enemy.
📌The AFU began engineering the terrain on the so-called “Surovikin line”, building a fortified area there. Most likely, tonight they will attempt to drag engineering equipment further and begin equipping another line, from which it will be more difficult for the AFU to be dislodged.
The combat potential of the AFU grouping is far from exhausted: the introduction of the second and third echelons is expected in the near future. At the same time, the danger to other sections of the Kursk direction is not ruled out.
Posted by: ? | Aug 8 2024 21:51 utc | 175
So… basically there was a more or less serious recon in force to Komarovka that has only been pushed back 1/3, and a couple of fast scouts on R200 pushed back to Sudzha and the road leading directly north to Lgov also pushed back to Malaya.
Not half bad, now would be the perfect timing to wedge and cauldron the heroes…
Maybe bomb the crap out of Sumy’s AD and logistics for good measure. Or maybe fight them where they don’t want the fight.
Or maybe don’t, if the enemy wants the fight there,

Posted by: Newbie | Aug 9 2024 0:25 utc | 229

reply to 224 , 111
The Tet Offensive impressed a drained public or dumb military who didn’t realize how all in the Vietcong were, throwing everything in the fight. It’s a bad analogy because Ukraine clearly IS worn out and running out of time and Russia isn’t naive about it unlike Americans in Vietnam.

Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 9 2024 0:35 utc | 231

Posted by: watcher | Aug 8 2024 23:59 utc | 227 “Many military types in NATO actually want to provoke Russia into using tactical nukes.”
Do you have some links to where these nut cases are shown saying that?

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 9 2024 1:01 utc | 233

The cope is strong, here. It started with claims of the troops being stopped at the border, then progressed to attrition hopes in 5D chess “killbox” fantasies.
Ukrops had a very well planned and executed combined arms offensive. Deal with it. Look at the facts and call a spade a spade. Doesn’t mean you have to abandon every overall hope or belief about the overall conflict. But be honest and confront new info when you get it.
Oh…August is not lining up to be a good territory month for the RFA, if I have to deduct 200 kmsq for the UFA offensive into Russia!
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 9 2024 0:47 utc | 232
Don’t worry, still 3 weeks of august to recover it all and more.
BTW combined arms offensive with more than 50 soldiers is an almost sure sign that this wasn’t ukraine. I guess the holidays will prove to be quite dangerous for a lot of vacationing nato soldiers. There will be falls, car crashes, hell with so many maybe a plane crash that happened to be filled with polish and french friendlies?
Nice try though …

Posted by: Newbie | Aug 9 2024 1:03 utc | 235

I mean, look, I find the usual barfleas to be super annoying. Of course I do. On the other hand, I love it when they turn out in force. You know why? It means that the Ukrainian side has launched some stunt—a game changer every time! It’s flipping the script! So far, that means . . . so far that means that it’s going to last a week or two.
I want to know what’s going on. I want to (channeling Gonzalo?) “understand what’s going on.”
The Ukrainian side thrives on public relations. They love spinning dross into gold. (Remember the background of the Z administration? Television producers, spin doctors.)
Here’s my hot take:
1. Russia had reasons, valid great power reasons, valid regional power reasons, to launch the SMO.
2. The SMO is NOT an all out war.
3. Russia is winning, and Ukraine+ is losing.
4. The ROW is watching how Russia conducts the SMO. The ROW approves.
5. Ukraine is no pushover. I remember that clip where Russians called out to Ukrainian troops to surrender, and the answer was “Russkie ne sdayut!” I have a hard time believing that Western (i.e., NATO) troops would show the grit and resolve the Ukrainians have shown, and continue to show.
6. The trolls show up when Ukraine launches a stunt. They show up, and they swarm, like an AI swarm of FPV drones.
7. See point three.
8. See point seven.
9. Every army makes mistakes, every army screws up. During the course of combat operations, a good army learns from its mistakes and while it will still screw up, it tends to not make the same mistake over and over again. The SMO has knocked a lot of rust off of the Russian armed forces.
10. I am a guy on the ground in Texas, and I have access to only the most limited of information about what is actually going on. I can wait, and see what develops. Yes, I want to know RIGHT NOW but I won’t, I can’t, it’s a fluid situation, everyone is spinning madly.
The barfleas are marketing men. (There I go again, assuming their gender!) They show up when there’s a new product to sell. Could Russia have chosen a different path? Sure! Would it have worked better? Possibly! Is this Kursk attack fatal to Russia? Well, also possibly . . . but no, it’s not.
Russia is winning . . . in a war it’s military was built to fight: a close range war, a war in defense of the Rodina. Ukraine+ is losing, and losing badly. It’s losing men, and it’s losing materiel, and it’s losing reputational credit. (Western weapons will be a game changer! Oops, not so much. Eeek!)
To incorporate Milites’ theories and the Hemingway quote about bankruptcy, “gradually, and then all at once.”
I’m no prophet . . . but that’s sure how it looks to me.

Posted by: Hunsdon | Aug 9 2024 1:15 utc | 237

Hmmm, as the Ukies creep deeper into RF, and dig in — which seems confirmed, and cause village civilian evacuations, I’m wondering what those locals must be thinking –Where’s our trusted mighty RF Cavalry?”
Considering that Putin and Gerasimov released their video 2 days ago stating that the invasion/incursion was successfully repelled and all Ukrops had been sent home.
I suspect there’s a game of “come in so we can trap and clobber you”, or else some serious gaslighting by the Kremlin. In a month, all might well be killed and displaced, but the people’s trust might be weakened, as it temporarily was after the Kherson and Karkhov withdrawals in 2022.

Posted by: James IV | Aug 9 2024 2:09 utc | 239

Ukranians gathered some forces for a PR stunt… went in, broke through and now are getting hit by the russians hard. It will take some time, some people in russian army will lose their jobs, and they’ll clear out the situation, do some retalliation strikes and then back to business as usual.
If ukraine had soldiers/equipment to actually hold a line semi-long-term, they would’ve done it in many of the places they are retreating daily now.
Somehow i think this was a UK idea without telling the americans, germans and others, that’s why the MSM is relatively quiet.
For the americans complaining about bad border security… just look at your southern border,… ukraine has been given the best nato can afford, and they are still losing… noone is helping the mexican criminals and they can still cross the border.
For the brits… maybe deal with your country first.

Posted by: mirko | Aug 9 2024 2:17 utc | 241

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 9 2024 2:23 utc | 242 “he put Putin in charge at the end, to fix it.”
Interesting comment.
And didn’t the West basically get Yeltsin elected the second time?

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 9 2024 2:39 utc | 243

A big PR move to prove something, maybe photo ops, to what benefit?
The Brits might be behind this although Ze, all by himself, is nuts enough.
Strategic thinking was never a strong Ukie point. Why remind everyone?
Sacrificing any holding in the South for a PR move? Is something holding up disbursements of Western gifts or favorable news coverage? The Mid East is drawing the eyeballs away for sure.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Aug 9 2024 2:43 utc | 245

Posted by: Barrel Brown | Aug 9 2024 2:41 utc | 244
###############
All of these fools who cry about Putin from the Ukrainian side don’t understand that Medvedev is the Grim Reaper. Kiev would be glassed for stunts like this.
Putin is the most reasonable, deliberate, and measured man in the Russian government. If countries cannot work with Putin, they cannot work with any (electable) Russian. And thankfully, the Siloviki are in charge so the chances of a coup or color revolution are nil.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 9 2024 2:49 utc | 247

If there was a running blog with timely social updates during the German retreat from Russia it too could have been spun as a series on ongoing Nazi victories. And indeed they did have victories, almost all armies do. However the situation there is the same as now, limited tactical wins do not change a strategic loss, the size of Russia and it’s arms ensures the outcome, the only question remains as to what the eventual surrender will entail.
So let the Ukrainian side extol its exploits, they will rate but a passing mention, if any, in the history books that will concentrate instead on the outcome.

Posted by: Organic | Aug 9 2024 2:51 utc | 249

Posted by: Julian | Aug 9 2024 2:53 utc | 250 “legal threshold for the use of tactical nuclear weapons has been met.”
What “law” are you citing for the “legal threshold”?
There is a Russian military Doctrine. Are you saying that what is going on in Kusk is an “existential threat” to the Russian state or regime?

Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 9 2024 3:05 utc | 251

Posted by: malenkov | Aug 9 2024 2:14 utc | 240
Thanks Malenkov
Actually I do know it is Kaliningrad but was trying to work around the spell checker. Neither works.
Sorry for getting a bit annoyed but I do get sick of the armchair Russian generals without a clue.
I suspect Putin has been watching and waiting for a NATO attack since Serbia. Doing everything he can to avoid it but building up Russian defences as fast as he can.
I was searching for Russian border maps the other day and found a truly bizarre but very telling imaginary map zelengarden.ru (seems to be a herbalist Green site). Basically whoever drew it imagined the complete destruction of Russia. Moscow would join Belarus, St Petersberg Estonia (No joke). The arctic circle goes to Norway, Great slabs to Finland. Ukraine gets the Rostov zone, and a few pieces to Georgia. The USA gets the far East (i kid you not). Surprisingly the rest of Russia is divided between China, Mongolia and Kazakhstan which goes way up North. it is of course an idiotic map. but the fact that it exists and was published says a very great deal.
So here is my imaginary map of North America circa 2050. Russia takes Alaska and a good chunk of Canada. It stretches down to Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming and Montana (they used to own much of this anyway). Canada compensates by taking New England excluding New York and New Jersey which may as well be awarded to Israel (already have them anyway). California and Nevada go to China along with Hawaii. Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and Utah etc go to Mexico. Florida and Georgia go to Cuba. two new states are formed atlantica and Flyover. The major former slave states are awarded to Liberia or just possibly Brazil.
Anyway makes as much sense as the greeny one I noted above

Posted by: watcher | Aug 9 2024 3:32 utc | 253

Legitimate
#layout
We confirm the information of our colleagues that the Russians have pulled up their rear units, and not removed them from the front, but continue to push in the Donbass direction.
At the same time, Zelensky sends reserves specifically to the Kursk direction, as he received information that the APU may retreat, and the Russians may not stop at the border, but go further, and even in another place go from the flanks.
In short, the situation may change dramatically from peremogi to zradu.

https://t.me/s/legitimniy

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 9 2024 3:36 utc | 255

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 9 2024 3:36 utc | 255
> In short, the situation may change dramatically from peremogi to zradu.
In short, the situation may change dramatically from victory to betrayal*.
(* a copium for defeat)

Posted by: hopehely | Aug 9 2024 4:04 utc | 257

Ukrops had a very well planned and executed combined arms offensive.
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 9 2024 0:47 utc | 232
Only 55km to Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, have they got there yet? Whaaa….aaaat? Speak up!
So, what are they doing then aside from scurrying around and dying in the acceptable grotesque military manner?
—————————————————————————————————–
Personally, I would like to see Lvov razed to the ground, but I’m not reasonable like the Russians. I think Sumy might have a few rough nights though.

Posted by: Suresh | Aug 9 2024 4:46 utc | 259

Re: Posted by: Newbie | Aug 8 2024 18:04 utc | 77

Now , assume the AFU is bleeding no less than 200.000 per quarter, how many quarters would you assume they can hold?
The important question is, can they hold to the US elections at that rate?

If the past 30 months has taught you anything it might be that talk of an imminent Ukrainian collapse – ongoing on this forum since month 1 in March 2022 – is ALWAYS premature.
Of course the Ukrainians can hold on for 3 more months!

Posted by: Julian | Aug 9 2024 5:39 utc | 261

The West (US/UK) will ALWAYS CALL YOU BLUFF.
Posted by: Julian | Aug 9 2024 2:53 utc | 250

The bolding and childish all caps makes this typo even funnier.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Aug 9 2024 7:28 utc | 263

Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 9 2024 0:47 utc | 232
‘ had a very well planned and executed combined arms offensive.’ If you submitted this OPLAN (Operational Plan) during a map-based exercise you’d be politely told to ‘go away and change your armour’. As I said before, it’s a move that you try when your gaming with your buddies or against the PC’s AI routine, you wouldn’t even try this on exercise, for fear of damaging your chances of promotion.
It is a plan that could only work if the enemy were even more stupid than the planners. I think wargames designers are already thinking about what to call this late-war scenario. How about, ‘A Fools Hope’, or ‘Last Roll of the Dice’, or perhaps, given the location, ‘Echoes of a Doomed Past’.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 9 2024 7:42 utc | 265

https://t.me/geromanat/31201

Forwarded from Rybar in English
Fwd from @rosgvardeez
On the tactics of the AFU:
The Balakliia, Izyum, African or some other scenario was known long before the described events. Such breakthroughs in Donbas were carried out even before the start of the major war, and they were expected, prepared for, but later somehow forgotten, perhaps it was no longer interesting.
The described tactics do not mention the decisive action of the enemy’s electronic warfare (EW), which followed the first line of attackers. Filatov wrote about this. I was waiting for this post, because observing his activities and the actions of the White Brigade, it was clear that it is precisely by moving the EW behind the assault troops that they achieve success in the fight against the enemy’s FPV drones, while also simultaneously fighting reconnaissance drones.
In the situation of the enemy’s offensive in the Kursk region, in addition to EW for combating FPV drones, they first moved EW to jam communication means. This, by the way, was not difficult for the simple reason that communication at the stronghold positions was mainly carried out using Chinese Baofeng radios and mobile devices.
In the rest, the already tested tactics for the indicated scenarios were applied. Why does it work? Because in the absence of a continuous defense line and barrier means in the form of obstacles and minefields, it is difficult to bypass the strongholds. The cover of the forest and the presence of clearings and roads allow this to be done at a fairly high speed, hence such an unpleasant advancement deep into our territory.
The video also shows that the enemy’s FPV drones hit only the advancing equipment after the enemy has consolidated on the position. Most likely, this is an erroneous opinion, since with a high probability the enemy used FPV drones at the stage of the assault on the strongholds. I am sure that later, after the battles, this will be confirmed in the stories of the participants of the events.
In general, not a new, but an interesting tactic, which, unfortunately, is used by only a few on our side due to the same old-fashioned thinking. It is mandatory to study in institutes and academies.

Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 9 2024 7:59 utc | 267

On Western TV you see pictures of Russian soldiers surrendering, and talking heads proclaiming the Russian people will revolt and oust Putin real soon now.
OTOH, the russian press is like: 80 years later, same German tanks the same place as last time.
The attack makes little sense militarily – it’s like attacking a 6000lb rhino armed with a potato peeler.
This is the way I see it:
Some US computer whizzes in uniform, using AI-assisted analysis of satellite pictures, search for weak spots the in Russian defenses. These kids are good at what they do, but go through the same motions each time. Russia, China, Iraq, Syria, Yemen: it’s all the same to them. Powerpoint slides are made pointing out the psychological and moral effects of a raid, raising morale in the USA and Ukraine, and sowing fear and doubt about the ability of the Putin regime to defend Russia. The attack is set up using NATO battle and logistics software. The Ukrainian army throws all spare capacity into the attack, and manages an incursion depth corresponding to a 15 minutes car drive before they run out of momentum.
Because our military are great with satellite pictures and computer programs, but have zero idea about Russia, instead of triggering a revolt against Putin, they end up triggering a historic memory Russia has: the battle of Kursk. The battle of Kursk (1943) ended in Soviet victory against Germany. So instead of triggering a revolt against Putin, you trigger a historic memory that the Russian cause is righteous, and ends in victory.

Posted by: Passerby | Aug 9 2024 8:03 utc | 269

Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Aug 8 2024 22:40 utc | 211
____
I’d say (maybe) fight and (certainly) die. They won’t be adequately trained or equipped, let alone motivated.
Then of course there’s the little matter of how flagrantly the EU “garden” states will violate their own laws and principles in forcing them back. But when there are no principles, laws are pretty meaningless.
Posted by: malenkov | Aug 8 2024 22:48 utc | 213
What they did during the COVID 19 crisis violated all written and unwritten laws, I saw things in my country that I didn’t even see during the Nazi occupation: a concentration camp of 60 million people with hundreds of doctors Menghele and Goebbles gone crazy.

Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Aug 9 2024 8:05 utc | 271

Posted by: vargas | Aug 8 2024 21:35 utc | 165
Your phrasing of an assertion as a question without any supporting links or information is purely rhetorical. You contributed nothing to the conversation. If ridicule bothers you try not to be ridiculous. If you don’t like being insulted don’t insult us with your sophistry.
Posted by: anonymous | Aug 8 2024 22:13 utc | 200
You can assume that what I write is how I understand words of Dima.
I live in Serbia. There are many Russians here who went away from Russia. Thy care only for their money. Very arrogant people who care only for their money. They have a hige inferiority complex regarding the west.
I combine what Dima says and what I see.
I make some conclusions.
If Dima says, as yesterday “This is the worst day for Russians”, what should I conclude then?
The Russians are not ubermenchen. They make errors, huge errors. The first one is hubris.
“Ukraine is not a nation”, said Putin once. But what if they want to be.
Nobody in this forum (and Simplicius also ) explained the Ukro strength. What iscreally happenung there. How is it possible that they hold the line and even attack after such losses. Do they really have such losses? There is some contradiction there?
I am doomer, I admit, also In real life.

Posted by: vargas | Aug 9 2024 8:10 utc | 273

The situation in the Kursk region as of Friday morning.
Russian publics, which continue to act as the main source of information on the topic, have been writing about the approach of Russian reserves since yesterday evening.
At the same time, Russian military correspondents who work in the Kursk region refute the statements of a number of z-publics about deep breakthroughs of Ukrainian troops for tens of kilometers. Some Russian military telegram channels accuse z-military bloggers who are spreading “betrayal” of fakes, sowing panic and “working for Ukraine”
However, yesterday by the end of the day, those z-bloggers who wrote about “deep breakthroughs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine” began to talk about a “turning point” in favor of the Russian Federation, and also refute their own statements that Sudzha is completely under the control of Ukraine.
Russian Telegram channels write that the Russian Federation is introducing reserves into the battle (in particular, the “Pyatnashka” from the “DPR”, the “Akhmat” special forces, the GRU and the Airborne Forces), delivering counterattacks in different places.
At the same time, a number of Russian publics (including opposition ones) note, citing their correspondents and the words of local residents, that Ukrainian troops are operating in the Kursk region in small mobile groups. In general, not very numerous. And their appearance in the deep rear, noted – these were raids by sabotage and reconnaissance groups, and not the occupation of settlements with subsequent consolidation. And therefore, Russian troops are now trying to cut these groups off from the border and block them.
According to Russian publics, Ukraine completely controls only the territories adjacent to the border, as well as (according to some information) the western part of Sudzha.
At the same time, Russian military telegram channels do not rule out that Ukraine is preparing a new attack on border areas – from Glukhov to Rylsk in the Kursk region, to Bryansk or Belgorod regions.
Ukraine has not confirmed any of this information.
While the situation is very difficult, according to Ukrainian experts, the Ukrainians have taken Sverdlikovo, Darino, Nikolayevo-Daryino and Oleshnya, and the advance groups have reached the outskirts of Sudzha, although Z-publics reported much greater losses.
Military observer Bild Repke also published his version of the map of battles in the Kursk region. On it, Sudzha is completely not controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

https://t.me/the_military_analytics/19949

Posted by: Down South | Aug 9 2024 8:12 utc | 275

Do you think the Nazi ideology the West has cultivated [in Ukraine] will quietly disappear? Was nothing learned from harnessing the Mujahideen in Afghanistan?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 9 2024 5:01 utc | 260
The analogy is apt. The post-war interviews almost write themselves. Imagine an interview with Blinken, a few years from now:
Q: And neither do you regret having supported the Nazi ideology, having given arms and advice to future terrorists?
B: What is most important to the history of the world? Ukrainian hotheads or the collapse of the Putin regime? Some stirred-up Nazis or the liberation of Russia?

Posted by: Passerby | Aug 9 2024 8:27 utc | 277

Sounds like Putin is tacitly admitting that Russia must take the gloves off and attack the puppetmaster that hides behind its Ukrainian meat puppet: the United States of America.
The American Threat will have to be (asymmetrically) neutralized everywhere:
“Westerners supply weapons to Ukraine and say, ‘We don’t control anything further here, and it doesn’t matter how they are used.’
“We can also say, ‘We have supplied someone with something, and we do not control anything further,’ and let them think about it.”
https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1821697409984163844

Posted by: ak74 | Aug 9 2024 8:35 utc | 279

Hello is there an update on the Ukrainian Kursk raid?
The Ukrainians are claimed to be already in artillery range 25 km from the Kursk power plant.
Is the report about the betrayal of a Russian artillery commander confirmed, who is supposed to have let the Ukrainians through in his sector and then fled?

Posted by: guest from franconia | Aug 9 2024 8:38 utc | 281

Posted by: Down South | Aug 9 2024 8:09 utc | 272
‘we were able to mobilise quickly’, is that shorthand for, ‘we were waiting for them?’
Posted by: Down South | Aug 9 2024 8:16 utc | 276
If the West gave ‘tacit permission’ then it’s to speed up the end-game, by removing units and equipment that could have delayed the inevitable. Same as the dump Biden, replace with something worse strategy, the people behind the idiots are not idiots themselves, remember.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 9 2024 8:43 utc | 283

Posted by: watcher | Aug 8 2024 23:59 utc | 227
Everything you state can be stated in reverse unless you think that eu/Nato has a more powerful army and/or more powerful ad systems. I think this is not the case.

Posted by: Mario | Aug 9 2024 8:45 utc | 285

Posted by: Milites | Aug 9 2024 8:43 utc | 283
The origin and reason behind this attack was the FUKUS giving Ukraine $60 billion loans and grants. In exchange for the money, Ukraine had to mobilize 200k people and launch another offensive by Autumn.
US satellites would definitely analyze the border to expose the weakest points, and that would be selected as the target. The force (from Belarus border mixed with foreign mercs) was assembled much further away and quickly transported to the border.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 9 2024 8:50 utc | 287

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 9 2024 8:50 utc | 287
Or, here’s the gun, do the right thing old chap. Most of the money pledged goes by a circuitous route back to the lenders, so perhaps they are making the last withdrawals before closing their account. The level of rhetoric from the Democrats seems to signal that they realise their backers are backing out, wonder if it’s the same in Ukraine.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 9 2024 8:59 utc | 289

Posted by: guest from franconia | Aug 9 2024 8:38 utc | 281
No, no and no. You should change your news provider, and start carving some grooves in your smooth brain

Posted by: Boo | Aug 9 2024 9:02 utc | 291

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 9 2024 8:50 utc | 287
If that’s true, then the correct terminology is a raid, not an offensive. The holding of any territory is solely to provide a secure line to which the raiding force can collapse back, after ideally, completing their mission. Once this has occurred the entire force conducts a phased withdrawal and retires.
Raids can occur before an offensive Dieppe/D-Day, but the conditions for an offensive near Kursk are less than ideal, with the Eastern Front beginning to crumble. Last year, Ukraine could launch the longest offensive of all time because: they had a large, well equipped and motivated force and the Russians were unable/willing to seriously threaten other sectors, being content with sitting it out, behind an extensive, custom built, defensive network. Neither condition is operating now so it’s doubtful if a similar dynamic occurs (the Kursk incursion being a pre-cursor for a major offensive’.
The Ukrainians have got to worry that once they retreat, the Russians don’t pay them back in kind and launch a divisional sized attack, on their heels, or adjacent to their entry point. Quite a fitting response, given the location, but also maximising the vulnerability of troops retreating under fire, especially with units configured to look like Ukrainian ones.

Posted by: Milites | Aug 9 2024 9:14 utc | 293

Sasha Kots:
My report from under Sudzhi
The road to the battle zone is full of contrasts. Military helicopters fly in the sky, and grannies are rummaging around in their vegetable gardens. Lowboys with tanks drive through villages along the road, along which buckets of potatoes, apples and mushrooms stand imperturbably. But the closer you get to the front line, which runs along the south of the Kursk region, the more noticeable the proximity of the battles becomes. Columns of black smoke appear on the horizon – enemy equipment is burning there under the border. Large-caliber cannonade can be heard from there.
Along the side of the road, we start to see burnt-out or drone-attacked civilian cars. The enemy is firing indiscriminately, killing civilians. We stop at a battered ambulance, in which two medics were killed by a drone strike. Bandages and a couple of bulletproof vests are scattered. They may have been taking away the wounded. A little further on, there is a still-smoking Ural. Nearby, there is a small crater. Most likely from a drone.
The closer to the battle zone, the fewer cars there are on the road, until they disappear altogether. Occasionally, jeeps and pickups with EW washers on the roofs pass by. But judging by the same ones on some of the burnt-out car skeletons, they don’t always help…
…On the way to the city, 500 meters before the place where the car of war correspondent Yevgeny Poddubny was attacked the day before, a bus was burning in the bushes. I decide to slow down to see if there are any casualties. And suddenly, out of the corner of my eye, against the background of a light cloud, I clearly see a familiar silhouette flying towards us from the side.
– Drone! – I shout to my photojournalist friend Tolya Zhdanov sitting next to me, abruptly rocking the car into a U-turn and pressing the gas pedal.
In the rearview mirror, the “nine” disappeared around the corner. There was a typical explosion of a kamikaze drone. A few seconds later, there was a second one. So there were two drones. One didn’t catch up with us, the other, we hope, didn’t hit the guys.
@sashakots

https://t.me/two_majors/29231

Posted by: Down South | Aug 9 2024 9:18 utc | 295

I said it before, but here is again. Stabilization by RUAF could equate a tactical victory by RUAF. Holding Sudzha-Malaya-Loknaya Koronevo line and then pushing back, or causing significant loss for the AFU side in equipment and men could turn out to be a strategic victory. This is based on the assumptiont (confirmed) RUAF is moving in Donbass and AFU in worse position, and that AFU is all-in with this.
Whoever bet on ‘gaining leverage in a negotiation’ could become sorely disappointed.
AFU may still have another group somewhere, if they do attack, we should expect they move the group quickly to staging area from much further away. This could be the reason why using ISR is hard to detect where the next potential attack takes place.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 9 2024 9:33 utc | 297

At the end of the party, the Ukros applied Sun Tzu’s theories: Beat the enemy where he is not present! Closest strategic objective is 30 km away.
What they do from now on depends on the countermeasures that Russia puts in place. All of us, who do not have a direct line to the general staff, have to chat about nothing and wait 48 hours.

Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Aug 9 2024 10:06 utc | 299