If RUAF stalemates the AFU diversionary attack, then it will be the end of that attack, and RUAF will hit the AFVs, leaving the infantry stranded. Then the infantry eventually has to withdraw or even will get left stranded beyond the border, like happened in the Belgorod offensive last year.
Second question, they talked about making another diversionary offensive in the Belgorod direction. The border is indeed long, and there are many options. Grayvoron (like last year), or on the road directly south of Belgorod, and everything in between.
Regarding the envisioned ‘Zaporozhye (NPP) main offensive’, RUAF supposedly had a grouping of 90k people in this direction. And AFU was reported to have 8 brigades. Even with merely average math one has to at least seriously wonder how that math works out. It doesn’t.
If you believe the Zelensky-Ukro official/Legitimny etc. channels talk, then the plan seems to have been a quick rush to take a nuclear plant (both in Kursk and Zaporozhye/Energodar), and use them as chips on the table. Once again, British footprints all over that plan. It’s basically the same plan they had last year, and 2022.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 7 2024 7:33 utc | 303

What is this rubbish?
Ukraine has never made ”sweet speeches about negotiations “!! – that is Russia doing that!
Point me to any speech given by Zelensky in which he calls for peace negotiations with Russia immediately and without pre-conditions.
You can’t because he’s never done so – it is only Putin saying things like that and that Russia is ready to negotiate when there is a willing and able negotiating partner to negotiate with.
Why make up these lies about Ukraine wanting peace negotiations – they never have and certainly don’t want any at the moment!
Are you relying on perfidious Western media sources for these ridiculous claims?!?
Posted by: Julian | Aug 7 2024 3:43 utc | 293

Zelensky did say things like:
-Russia must be invited to the next ‘peace conference’
-the war must be ended as quickly as possible
-the war must be ended as quickly as possible on Ukrainian terms
-Ukraine is losing a lot of people (seemed like a panicky admission)
-Zelensky has been freaking out over the US election, panicking, callin Kamala, calling Trump and more freaking completely clueless
Then you had the assortment of statements by Nato people who imply that they want a ‘cease-fire’. So I think the odds are pretty high ZE-Nato have been subconsciously muttering what they want, namely cease fire. But they still can’t talk with Putin. And they tried to murder Fico, the Georgian PM, Trump, Raisi of Iran (succeeded) and latest report implies they could have tried to murder Putin.
So it’s pretty clear they are freaking out of Ukraine but can’t admit it.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 7 2024 7:54 utc | 305

By the way, our sources talked about the plan to invade the territory of the Russian Federation before the offensive in 2023 last year, but then it was plan B, and now it turned out to be the main one.
Read, nothing has changed in a year. The goals and objectives are the same.
Another feature is that in addition to the “attack/invasion” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the territory of Russia (everyone was talking about the Kursk and Belgorod regions), Bankovaya has drawn up and approved as an additional/backup plan a provocation/invasion of Transnistria. Such a plan has been ready since 2023 and was personally approved by Zelensky.
As the source adds, the attack on Kursk showed that things are bad for Bankovaya since they went for such an increase in rates and a risky business, and a possible provocation in the PMR case will even more indicate that everything is sad.

https://t.me/legitimniy/18482

Posted by: Down South | Aug 7 2024 8:15 utc | 307

If you believe this report, the Kursk thrust has ended. This could imply the offensive followed the same path as Belgorod offensive last year. RUAF is hitting the AFU rear support behind the border with the help of large amount of recon drones.

Condottiero reports:
07-08-2024. Kursk. Borderland.
All night long, the Russian Armed Forces launched missile strikes and aircraft were operating against the rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Sumy and Kharkov. Around 20 Geraniums flew there during the night and are still circling over Ukraine conducting additional reconnaissance.
There was no “second wave” of attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, despite the fakes. Neither at night nor in the morning. All combat-ready enemy forces were exhausted yesterday. Everything they “collected” retreated even further from the border at night. We are finishing off the rest right now at dawn.
I think today we will see a reverse movement that will allow us to advance and expand the zone of control across the entire northern section of the front.
As for the mood of battle bloggers – there is such a job, to throw tantrums and rake in money from advertising

https://x.com/GeromanAT/status/1821056518839509080

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 7 2024 8:52 utc | 309

@rybar_force
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Kursk Region
Situation as of 1 am on August 7, 2024
The situation remains difficult in the Sudzha district of Kursk Region. According to our sources, Ukrainian formations have managed to entrench themselves in the border area, despite intense strikes and attacks by
Show more
Image
— GEROMAN — time will tell – 👀 — reposted
Rybar Force
@rybar_force
🇷🇺🇺🇦 On the economic aims of the attack in the Kursk region
Over the past 24 hours, many sources have commented on the tactical and PR goals of the AFU operation on Russian territory.
But another aspect of the current confrontation must also be taken into account: the members of the AFU are actually free colonial troops for the collective West, and losses in equipment will lead to new orders for the American military-industrial complex, which will have to be paid for by the Europeans. So even the media effect costs are justified.
🔻 Continuation of the war for the EU energy market
The collective West is consistently trying to squeeze Russia out of the energy markets through complex influence. And now the task is to completely cut off the EU from Russian gas supplies. No one thought that everything would be limited to undermining the Nord Streams, did they?
Now the issue of gas supplies through the territory of so-called Ukraine is in focus. Some European countries directly dependent on Russian energy supplies, led by Hungary, are forming a political coalition that could become a serious counterweight to official Brussels. Formally, within the framework of EU legislation, nothing can be done about it. Therefore, the task now is to cut off this group of countries from Russian energy supplies. This will certainly lead to social tension and change of power in the countries that dared to challenge the dictatorship of Ursula von der Leyen.
🔻The Druzhba oil pipeline
This is why we are seeing a partial halt of oil deliveries through the Druzhba oil pipeline. Yes, this will create certain problems with the supply of fuel to the AFU. But the priority now is the elimination of strong EU leaders who are able to form a real opposition. The assassination attempt on Robert Fitzo and the constant criticism of Viktor Orban’s actions fit into this paradigm.
🔻 EU gas supplies at risk
At the end of 2024 the contract for gas transit through the territory of Ukraine expires. The Anglo-Saxons have made it clear through their puppets that they are not going to prolong the agreement. But a coalition led by Orban stands in their way, which is ready to defend the national interests of its countries, which is already a feat in the current EU realities.
🔻The most likely task of the enemy is to seize (in this part the task has already been accomplished) and hold the station with subsequent detonation during retreat. And the Western media will most likely blame the Russian side for the bombing. The truth for the European common man is limited to BBC reports. Therefore, there will be enough formal arguments to accuse Russian suppliers of disrupting gas supplies to the EU before the winter season.

https://x.com/rybar_force/status/1821101350286950754

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 7 2024 9:09 utc | 311

Another diversionary attack. It won’t achieve anything significant. Most probably the main assault will be somewhere else (some speculate on the Zaporizhzhia NPP) or somewhere else in the south.

Posted by: JamesBond | Aug 7 2024 9:39 utc | 313

@309,
If there is another think that is very annoying on this war are those war bloggers who keep hyping everything (either bad or good) to get attention. I don’t bother with Ukr bloggers, but those Ru ones are the worst. Attention wh***.

Posted by: JamesBond | Aug 7 2024 9:52 utc | 315

Yuri Podolyaka:
Kursk Front: situation at 10:00 07.08.24
Since the morning, the enemy has continued to develop its offensive to the north along the Sudzha-Korenevo highway. There is no movement towards Sudzha yet.
They managed to take control of several more settlements. The total advance in just over a day was approximately 15 km.
At the same time, the enemy continues to introduce more and more battalions into the breakthrough. The 22nd mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has already completely entered our territory.

https://t.me/two_majors/29113

Роман Алехин:
Kursk region. Borderland
The enemy still remains in the Kursk region. I will not name specific residents, because it will interfere with our work. Comrades Mayors have some data that can be published. The work is complicated by the fact that the enemy is located near populated areas for which there is no complete data on 100% evacuation of civilians, which ties the hands of our military. That is, the situation is standard for the Ukrainian Armed Forces: try to use a human shield of civilians.
During the night, our units managed to determine the direction of counterattacks and bring up reserves for more precise work.
So far, everything looks like another information campaign from the enemy, but still, taking into account the incoming information, this may not be the main attack, but a distraction to draw our forces away from the main direction. In this, I fully agree with Yuriy Podolyaka.
The region’s civil authorities are aware of the situation, but their hands are tied by the military, which complicates humanitarian work. I think everyone understands that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will definitely try to strike the bus with evacuating civilians – that’s their nature. And the evacuation of each family is a whole special operation with an evacuation plan, cover and escort of rescuers.
But the work is being done and will continue to be done.
As for the Russian Armed Forces, the main task they are dealing with is to destroy the maximum amount of enemy manpower and equipment, as well as to bring up reserves for cleanup and a possible counterattack on enemy territory.
Border residents need to be extremely careful these days. Help will be provided to everyone. I will keep you informed and help.

https://t.me/two_majors/29111

🪖 Sudzhan direction.
Over the past night, he brought up to 2 battalions into battle. He is actively using artillery. He is advancing towards Sudzha, as he did yesterday.
There are statements that the enemy has occupied the settlements of Daryevka, Gogolevka, Sverdlikovo. They are located immediately after zero, and so far nothing seems unthinkable in this series of occupied settlements.
The topic that is being actively discussed now is that one of the goals of this sortie is the destroyed GIS “Sudzha” to stop Russian gas exports. That is, they did not simply block it on their territory, but destroyed it accidentally during military operations. It is also important to note the distance from Sudzha to the Kurchatov NPP, only 90 km.
Perhaps, one of the enemy’s goals is to approach the KNPP and conduct shelling, as it was in Zaporozhye, simultaneously dictating their terms. The enemy succeeded in one thing for sure, they will make PR. This is not even discussed, there was no element of surprise. Everything began with artillery preparation and the entry of pickups with personnel, and then the development of offensive actions deep into the territory of the Russian Federation. Everything will be presented as a super-operation of the Ukrainian military.
It is assumed that the enemy is expecting the redeployment of Russian Armed Forces personnel from neighboring regions, especially from Belgorod, where another strike group has recently begun to form to strike in a new direction. Having torn off a significant number of our troops, the enemy will gain time and can also launch a counterattack in “weak” places.
To cover their troops, the Ukrainian Armed Forces brought in a significant number of air defenses. It is difficult to destroy the enemy with large UAVs and aircraft. Armored vehicles were also spotted on the enemy side.
Since yesterday, the enemy has been actively firing at roads used to evacuate civilians from the city. This continues now, evacuation is difficult. We have already seen this picture in Shebekino and Grayvoron.

https://t.me/two_majors/29107

Posted by: Down South | Aug 7 2024 10:44 utc | 317

The situation in the Kursk region – what is known by 13:00
Throughout the night and morning, Ukrainian formations attempted to expand the part of the Kursk region under their control. According to the latest information, since the beginning of the offensive, Ukrainian Armed Forces units have occupied several settlements in the region.
▪️In the northwestern sector, the enemy reached the outskirts of Leonidovka along the Rylsk-Sudzha highway, in the area of ​​which Ukrainian formations came under fire from Russian troops and suffered losses in manpower and equipment.
At the same time, Ukrainian Armed Forces units advanced more than three kilometers from the Nikolayevo-Daryino – Darino – Nizhny Klin line, establishing control over Obukhovskaya, Pokrovsky, Tolsty Lug and Lyubimovka.
▪️To the southeast, the enemy captured the Sudzha gas metering station, through which gas is transited to Europe through the territory of the so-called Ukraine. The facility itself is located in close proximity to the checkpoint of the same name.
According to incoming information, units of the Russian Armed Forces were able to dislodge Ukrainian formations from Goncharovka, a western suburb of Sudzha. However, the enemy retains control over the rest of the 38K-004 highway.
▪️Ukrainian formations continue to strike throughout the Kursk region – Sudzha remains under the heaviest fire. According to official data, five people have been killed in two days, at least 24 have been injured, including six children.
▪️According to footage published by the enemy, yesterday a Ukrainian FPV drone hit a Russian Mi-28 helicopter in the tail boom, which was the first such documented incident. The aircraft suffered damage to the tail rotor and landed, the crew is alive.
▪️The Ukrainian command continues to amass forces in the Yunakivska rural community in the Sumy region. Concentrations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are also recorded in Yunakovka itself, as well as in the village of Kiyanitsa, located to the southwest.
Meanwhile, in another part of the Sumy region, a concentration of enemy forces is observed in the forests near the village of Privolye to the east of the city of Glukhov. As we have already noted, from here the Ukrainian Armed Forces can advance both along the highway through the Krupets checkpoint and from the side of the Krasny Peredovik farm.
🔻 At the moment, the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is forming two groups, one of which is concentrated in the Yunakovka rural community, and the other in the Glukhov district. And if the first has been partially introduced into the territory of the Kursk region, the other has not yet begun to move.
At the same time, Rylsk may become a common target for the groups – Ukrainian formations from the Sudzhansky district were able to advance somewhat towards it overnight, but the E38 highway leads to it from the side of Privolye.
Rybar

https://t.me/geromanat/31006

Posted by: Down South | Aug 7 2024 10:55 utc | 319

Posted by: Down South | Aug 7 2024 10:55 utc | 319
Don’t worry, my experience with the current events tells me that everything will be over in 48/72 hours; it all depends on whether 2 or 3 brigades will be involved in the attack. A surprise with little support from the rear and no air support is destined to end up like the Vietnamese Tet offensive.

Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Aug 7 2024 11:30 utc | 321

gas to Hungary via Ukraine has alternative Turkstream route . But Russian main oil supply via Ukraine Druzhba is halted Brussels and Ukr working together on this . Does seem to be some suggestion of other oil routes and supplies?

Posted by: Jo | Aug 7 2024 11:44 utc | 323

There is no such group called ‘Liberty of Russia Legion”. It’s an attempt to boost opposition within Russia in the military.
Meanwhile, the kursk incursion is designed to deflect the ukraine population away from the loss of New York in the south.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Aug 7 2024 12:01 utc | 325

I remember posters here saying that Russia was ‘attriting’ the Ukrainian forces, but it seems like the opposite is true. Man, Russia is in deep trouble.

Posted by: bored | Aug 7 2024 12:05 utc | 327

Given the propensity of the mainstream media to slant negatively towards Russia and overstate every positive accomplishment on Ukraine’s side, I’m surprised the Kursk incursion isn’t one of the top stories. In fact scrolling down several pages in my Apple and Fox news apps I don’t even see a headline about it. That’s a good sign that it’s not as bad as some here are making out to be.

Posted by: Johnny Boy | Aug 7 2024 12:18 utc | 329

Resident
⚡️⚡️⚡️#Insider information
Our source in the OP said that Syrsky requested permission at stavka to transfer reserves to the Kursk region to hold the bridgehead and advance into the depths of Russian territories. The initial plan of the General Staff with an unexpected blow did not achieve results, the APU could not advance 30 km on the first day. go deep into Russian territory and threaten the Kursk nuclear power plant.
Resident
The Kremlin was well aware of the plans of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to launch an operation in the Kursk direction, which means that we were lured into another campaign that is being used against Ukraine on the international track. Zelensky’s ambitions with the latest offensive may be costly for the country, and the losses will be ten times higher than in the counteroffensive of 2023, which is now criticized by all experts.
https://t.me/s/rezident_ua

From, what I understand, Russia has always had a fairly large reserve force in the north.
I assume there would have been light forces along the border whose job was slow an attack wherever it was launched until sufficient reserve force arrived. I saw on one report, the Ukies/Nato were remote mining the roads to delay the main force.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 7 2024 12:46 utc | 331

Ah, again Dima .. the expert on everything related to wars. If there is one thing that at least the doomers here should’ve learn by now, is to wait a few more days to see the actual results before assuming everything.

Posted by: JamesBond | Aug 7 2024 12:57 utc | 333

Newbie | Aug 7 2024 13:06 utc | 334
When they launch the attack against the ZNPP, I’m assuming they intend blowing it – try and cause some sort of nuclear disaster which Russia will have to deal with but also as a false flag to blame it on Russia.
At the moment I have seen no numbers on total forces to be used in each offensive, but its quite likely they have just been throwing untrained forces into the frontlines while putting together and holding back sufficient trained forces and weapons for the offensives.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 7 2024 13:42 utc | 335

Newbie | Aug 7 2024 13:06 utc | 334
When they launch the attack against the ZNPP, I’m assuming they intend blowing it – try and cause some sort of nuclear disaster which Russia will have to deal with but also as a false flag to blame it on Russia.
At the moment I have seen no numbers on total forces to be used in each offensive, but its quite likely they have just been throwing untrained forces into the frontlines while putting together and holding back sufficient trained forces and weapons for the offensives.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 7 2024 13:42 utc | 335
If they were stupid enough to do it they would have to do it mid-december to end of january. That’s when there are prevailing western winds there, otherwise they’d be self dirty nuking (though right now they’d dirty nuke Melitopol

Posted by: Newbie | Aug 7 2024 13:56 utc | 337

@JamesBond | Aug 7 2024 12:57 utc | 333
I don’t follow Dima because he’s very annoying, but the situation in which the ministry of (non)defense put themselves in is not pretty. And there’s another side of Zeli’s (most likely UK’s new PM) little invasion – gas prices in EU jumped to winter levels.
t.me/intelslava/64515
t.me/intelslava/64516
t.me/intelslava/64521

Posted by: rk | Aug 7 2024 13:59 utc | 339

@339,
Yeah, it’s strange that there isn’t any line of defense close to that section of the border in Kursk, that is true. But again, the place that Ukr “captured” is basically flat terrain with a few villages in between. Not pretty but at the same time, not relevant on the long run.
We will see exactly in a few days what is real and what is fake (just like the last few times).

Posted by: JamesBond | Aug 7 2024 14:20 utc | 341

The usual bored Julian vargases need to take a chill pill:

There is no “operational encirclement” of Sudzhi, as some write.
The enemy was spotted several kilometers to the south, southwest, west and northwest of the city.
It’s hard to even call this situation “semi-encirclement”.
https://t.me/mig41/35919

Posted by: Boo | Aug 7 2024 14:53 utc | 343

Posted by: Newbie | Aug 7 2024 13:06 utc | 334
832 / 5.000
I could see it as a more sophisticated maneuver. 3,000 well-trained men who will spread out along the border in very small groups of raiders who occasionally gather to complete specific tasks and then disband to force enemy troops to resort to mobile armored units to be able to safely move supplies. Practically an area interdiction with relatively low costs and substantial consequences. In the exercises I participated in, against soldiers of the same level, 250 well-trained men interrupted the flow of supplies, on secondary roads, over an area of ​​almost 1,000 km2, not counting other operations, exfiltrating and returning to bases after 8 days with insignificant losses, immobilizing at least one brigade of troops,

Posted by: LEMMNING1 | Aug 7 2024 15:54 utc | 345

Minimo 346
Who cares? Are you stupid? Two and a half years in and you still don’t know what’s going on. I’ll help.
Russian objectives;
1. Demilitarize Ukraine
2. Denazify Ukraine
3. Ukraine not in NATO
What is Russia’s strategy?
1. Kill lots of Ukrainian military personnel
2. Destroy as much of Ukraine’s military equipment as possible
3. Destroy Ukraine’s industry
4. Break the will of the Ukrainian people
How do you break the will of an entire population? You make the conflict drag on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on. The enemy’s population watches, day after day after day after day your slow, inexorable, unstoppable advance. It psychologically wears them down. Every victory turns to ashes. Every hope turns futile. And one by one, the enemy’s people begin to turn on their government. They begin to kill soldiers on leave. They pass critical information to you. They burn government vehicles. They sabotage power plants and railroads. And they watch the Russian advance, like a glacier, slowly grinding their country to dust.
Who cares about a minor blip of Kursk? Everyone knows when it ends, the ground will be covered with the corpses of Ukrainian soldiers and foreign mercenaries as Ukrainian vehicle burn. And there goes another couple thousand dead Ukrainians, another victory lost, another hope lost. And it will be one more tiny recession, one insignificant lapping of a wave in the incoming tidal wave of Russia.

Posted by: Nobody Special | Aug 7 2024 17:55 utc | 347

MiniMO @ 346

The fact that Ukrainian forces take territory much faster while Russian forces have to fight for every 100 meters shows it is the Russian forces which are too small or not managed correctly…

Nonsense, I’m not saying that the RuMoD wasn’t caught while out taking a piss, but Russians in the Donbas have been going against wall to wall mines, drone covered sky, grey zones, kill zones, years old if not a decade old trench networks and fortifications, enemy controlled high grounds, and hand to hand urban combat from high rise to rise across unimaginably precarious and booby trapped rubble. Since the start of the offensive last winter the Russians have been moving mostly on foot. The much better comparison is the very start of the SMO where RF forces blitzed right up to the suburbs of Kharkiv and Kiev and took all of Kherson.
The AFU in the Kursk attack is moving over paved or good dirt roads with mostly fast wheeled vehicles, note the Strikers, not many tracked vehicles, across zones with little or hardly any fortifications. While RuMoD seems to have been caught off guard that remains to be seen, could be bait to draw out the Sumy forces, destroy them in open ground, it is the Russian way in history. Sacrificing a few small farm towns to destroy the Sumy garrison in the open wouldn’t be a bad plan, but admittedly that sounds like cope.
Should the Russians have fortified the entire Kursk area the way the did in Kherson last summer, or the way the AFU did over the last 10 years in the Donbas? Beats me, resources are limited, there are priorities, and maybe the MoD has it covered, we will find out in short order.
IMO the Russians saw this coming, which would explain the heavy bombings of the Sumy area over the last month, it wasn’t softening up Sumy for an attack, it was to deter, or weaken one. Maybe they underestimated the actual scale of it, maybe it’s the old draw them into Russian lands strategy. Historically Russian military strategy has never cared about appearances, losing ground or destroyed cities, they care about winning whatever the price.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Aug 7 2024 18:36 utc | 349