🇺🇦 In 2024 The mortality rate in Ukraine is three times higher than the birth rate❗️
OpenDatabot visualizes disastrous demographic data (from the Department of Justice). Currently, for every one newborn citizen of Ukraine, there are three deaths. This ratio is one of the key indicators of the demographic crisis that has broken out in Ukraine.
In 2018-2020 the situation was also difficult – for every 1 child born, there were 2 deaths. Military actions with the Russian Federation since 2022. intensified the population decline in Ukraine.
For the first half of 2024 In Ukraine, 250,972 people died, and 87,655 children were born, which is 9% less than in the same period in 2023.
In 2024 year, the birth rate decreased by 1.5 times from the period until 2022: 87,655 children versus 132,595 newborns in 2021.
Overall, fertility rates in the country have been declining since 2013. (hello Maidan!) – by about 7% per year. However, the largest decline in the history of Ukraine has been observed since 2022. The previous anti-peak birth rate was also associated with the war: in 2015. Fertility rates fell 12% over the year.
We periodically raise the problem of demography in Ukraine, but the government still does not pay enough attention to it and seems to be going to fight “until the last Ukrainian.” It is logical that the birth rate will fall in a warring country, with further destruction of infrastructure, a practically non-functioning economy, a massive outflow of the population abroad, and the absence of a clear, attractive image of the future for ordinary Ukrainians.
The result of such a reign by the Ze-team will be the massive import of labor migrants from third world countries, as demographers and economists are already talking about 🧩

https://t.me/ZeRada1/20847

Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2024 14:07 utc | 3

[Segue]
What is the etiquette regarding debates from past threads. Should you continue an ongoing debate, in that past thread, if a new Ukr thread comes open? Or move it to the new one?

Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 4 2024 14:14 utc | 5

Posted by: Eighthman | Aug 4 2024 13:59 utc | 2
The Legitimny or Rezident channels had some more information on the Kowel march. Apparently, in Kowel, there was the first case where mass protests managed to get the TCC to release people who were soon to be mobilized. They are afraid if either the entire TCC gets taken over or it could even spread into more places.
That could definitely be the end of the war, or reduce the flow of mobilized enough that you could effectively say it has ended (lost most activity). We’ll see.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 4 2024 14:30 utc | 7

F-16s are the new Nordstream, the new ATACMS. The new Bradley. The new Patriot systems. The new cluster munitions. The new Abrams. The new Leopard. The new Challenger.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 4 2024 14:42 utc | 9

Now that F-16 is official, they need to make room for another future wonder weapon for Ukraine to place it’s bet on changing the war or prolong it as much as possible.

Posted by: JamesBond | Aug 4 2024 14:44 utc | 11

@WG | Aug 4 2024 14:44 utc | 10
That’s only a part of the fun. remember this? “The Ukrainian authorities plan to allocate 400 square kilometers of fertile black soil for the disposal of hazardous chemical and radioactive waste under an agreement with George Soros’s son Alexander” ( tass.com/world/1714983 )

Posted by: rk | Aug 4 2024 14:52 utc | 13

The new American Communist Party came up in a previous Palestine thread. Comment reposted here as US politics relevant to Ukraine.
S.P. Korolev@232 responds to Fred@225 questioning the new American Communist Party’s position on Ukraine. One leader in the new party wrote this: https://carlosgarrido.substack.com/p/multipolarity-and-america
Garrido’s defense of attacks on Hinkle are on X I believe, separately available here (I hope) https://discordapp.com/channels/753675195662860481/1215798924456231033/1268742491893665792

Posted by: steven t johnson | Aug 4 2024 15:04 utc | 15

“Today there was also heavy shelling of Lugansk”
Posted by: Down South | Aug 4 2024 14:15 utc | 6
“Armed Forces of Ukraine fired 12 Western-made missiles at Lugansk. Presumably eight ATACMS missiles and four Storm Shadow.
Four missiles were shot down by air defense forces on approach to the city. As a result of the fall of rocket debris, dry grass caught fire.
The strikes hit the storage facilities where the fuel tanks were located, and the private sector. All emergency services, representatives of the Administration of the Head and the Administration of the city of Lugansk work on the spot. Information about the victims is being specified.” said the head of the LPR Pasechnik

Posted by: rk | Aug 4 2024 15:13 utc | 17

Uki Telegram boasting that an F16 has done victory rolls over Odessa after striking Crimea. UK media state it was used to sink a Kilo class sub.
Also,
Uki Telegram state that another F16 launched missiles that hit Lugansk today.
Big propaganda victory for the Ukis.
Russia is again behind the curve with information warfare, and indeed air defence as there is no excuse for an F16 to be showboating and rolling over Odessa, much less striking Crimea.
Very serious development if the sub sinking is confirmed, and the Lugansk attack confirmed done by F16s.

Posted by: Johhny JJ | Aug 4 2024 15:56 utc | 19

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 4 2024 14:46 utc | 12
I thought the same.
“Somebody, somewhere, is going to get caught on the wrong side of the credit default swaps.” AIG and its bitch, the Fed.
A cursory search: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/ukraine-debt-swaps-signal-80-chance-of-default-as-stress-mounts
“Trading activity is low and they’re no longer being quoted in basis points, which is how the market usually prices risk…protection sellers are demanding payment in advance, which is what typically happens when contracts exceed 1,000 basis points and they perceive an imminent risk of default. So contracts insuring $10 million of the country’s bonds for five years were quoted at about $6 million upfront and $100,000 annually, signaling around 90% likelihood of default.” Change this “90%” to 100%.

Posted by: horseguards | Aug 4 2024 16:04 utc | 21

Another day, and another 2,000 or more Ukrainian losses – which is now the average daily loss, which works out to 60,000 a month. With at best (and that’s believing the Banderist regime) 30,000 unwilling press-ganged untrained and under-equipped conscripts to replace the losses every month.
The very high daily loss rate of artillery (41 in the latest report) and electronic warfare and counter-battery radar system (6 and 2 in the latest report) point to a much easier time for Russian artillery and drone operators, which will be reflected in even greater loss of EW and counter-battery systems – a negative feedback loop for the Ukrainians.
The loss of 38 motor vehicles and 2 HMV type vehicles vs 5 AFV/IFV/APC really underlines the lack of armoured mobility for the Ukrainian forces. 5 tank losses is a high, but that is a very small number reflecting the actual availability of tanks to the Ukrainians. Such an “infantry+technicals” with next to no artillery and air cover (the F16s will not change that reality) have much greater issues once fighting moves out of heavily industrialized and fortified urban areas as the fighting moves westwards. Perhaps that is what we are starting to see in the Pokrovsk area where the Russian progress has markedly speeded up.
The Ukrainian losses in equipment and munitions are no longer being substantially replaced by the West that has already fully rearmed the Ukrainian military twice, so the Ukrainian military capabilities are rapidly diminishing in men, equipment and material as the Russian capabilities continue to grow. An accelerating feedback loop of losses leading to more losses is now in place.
Ukrainian losses for August 4th, as reported by the Russian defence ministry:
– Sever Group (Kharkov): 190 troops, 2 HMV, 6 motor vehicles, 7 artillery pieces, 1 EW system, 1 counter-battery radar system
– Zapad Group (Luhansk area): 490 troops, 3 tanks, 3 IFV/APC, 8 motor vehicles, 9 artillery piece, 2 EW systems
– Yug Group (Donetsk north): 690 troops, 3 motor vehicles, 9 artillery pieces
– Tsetr Group (Donetsk south): 365 troops, 1 tank, 2 APC, 11 motor vehicles, 5 artillery pieces, 1 EW system, 1 counter-battery radar system
– Vostok Group (southern front): 95 troops, 1 tank, 3 motor vehicles, 4 artillery pieces, 1 EW system
– Dnepr Group: 75 troops, 7 motor vehicles, 2 artillery pieces, 1 EW system
In total: 1,905 troops (about 2,000-2,500 with undercounting: 60,000 to 75,000 a month). We seem to have hit a new normal of 2,000 to 2,500 reported losses.
5 tanks, 5 AFV/IFV/APC, 2 HMV, 38 motor vehicles; continuing transformation of the Ukrainian army into infantry plus “technicals” (pickup trucks with mounted weapons).
41 artillery pieces, the highest yet – a rate of over 1200 per month. 6 EW and 2 Counter Battery Radar systems, these very high losses point (especially in EW) to perhaps more effective Russian drone usage and will make it much easier for Russian drone operators. Such systems are complex to build and not easily replaceable.
In addition the Russians are adept at shooting down ATACMS and HIMARS missiles, as well as hunting down and destroying HIMARS systems. They are also destroying a lot of weapons dumps.

Posted by: Roger | Aug 4 2024 16:15 utc | 23

malenkov@24 exposes me an online semiliterate who just-doesn’t-understand. My apologies.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Aug 4 2024 16:31 utc | 25

*(not ACU but ACP of course)

Posted by: malenkov | Aug 4 2024 16:43 utc | 27

Telegram “Channel of the Visionary”: ✈️ Why are the F-16s so important, why are the stakes so high?
F-16 fighters are NATO’s last argument in the conflict in Ukraine, the last wunderwaffe. And it’s not just that they are equipped for long-range missiles, which are being prepared to be launched, they themselves are air defense systems and are generally carriers of nuclear weapons. The F-16s are integrated into the NATO command and control system and can strike from afar, launching AIM-120 air-to-air missiles from low altitudes. Through the Link 16 data exchange system, the airborne early warning and control aircraft directs missiles to destroy Russian aircraft, outside their detection zone and real retaliatory reach.
The F-16 is the decisive stage of the struggle for air superiority in the Ukrainian theater of military operations. A situation fraught with a major war with NATO, since the Falcons in the skies of Ukraine will be piloted mainly by NATO aces, and not by Ukrainian novice pilots.
In the battle for the sea, the New Entente managed without such official participation of NATO specialists, effectively driving the Black Sea Fleet (what was left of it) into the Novorossiysk Bay. Now the task is to drive away the Russian Air Force aircraft from the LBS in Ukraine, which are currently ironing the front line with KABs, and to increase the ability to shoot down cruise missiles with the help of F-16s. Without these factors, the advantage of the Russian army over the Ukrainian Armed Forces will come to naught and either the conflict can be maintained in a hot stage for an indefinite period, or negotiations can be started in a completely different status.
But the stakes may be higher if the radical “war party” intervenes again. If Russia begins to lose this decisive battle in the air, it is very likely that Moscow will use tactical nuclear weapons. The New Entente is pushing it in every possible way, hoping to achieve isolation from the Global South and economic strangulation after Russia’s first use of TNW.
We are now walking on very thin ice. Thus, this sophisticated Western strategy of provocation on the verge of a foul is in action. Russia’s direct crowbar strategy is simpler – it is necessary to win the upcoming battle for air supremacy at any cost, destroying the F-16s and their advanced infrastructure, but – without using TNW. No defense against a simple crowbar?
Background: The F-16 Fighting Falcon is the most mass-produced and commercially successful American fourth-generation fighter, in service with the air forces of 25 countries. The F-16 is a universal platform that can be used as a fighter, a bomber, and an air defense system. The F-16C, F-16D and F-16 MLO modifications are capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons (but they have not yet been supplied to foreigners). The Pentagon values ​​the reputation of this aircraft very much. Their use in the skies of Ukraine is NATO’s gamble.

https://x.com/vicktop55/status/1820107920740085864

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 4 2024 16:50 utc | 29

Some news from Sputnik:
https://sputnikglobe.com/20240803/zelensky-changes-approach-to-talks-with-russia-amid-military-failure–french-politician-1119628590.html
Running scared before Trump comes in, looks like. Not that Russia can hold talks with him anyway, he being an illegitimate office holder, and not being allowed by his own law in any case. Possibly time to pack the rolls of bills and make a discrete exit to his retirement homes. Or maybe he’s so witless that he thinks he can get re-elected.

Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Aug 4 2024 16:53 utc | 31

Will impending financial collapse in the US make the west snatch at a peace deal with Russia?
Probably not. But lets see…

Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Aug 4 2024 16:56 utc | 33

Not sure you can bet you don’t sink the sucker with an hyper-sonic (and slower ones might be intercepted much more easily)
If you shoot seriously at a carrier its best you don’t hold your punches.
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 4 2024 17:06 utc | 49
It’s not easy to sink a carrier.
You need to be intentional about it.
If you are hypersonic capable you’re also capable of aiming it exactly where you want.
The Houthi have demonstrated this multiple times in the red sea.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 4 2024 17:12 utc | 35

Deep State update is out early today.
https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/48.1155689/37.6717758
1. Chasiv Yar shows a strange pullback from October district less red), but then an expansion south of it, but still short of the canal. Not sure if this is real back and forth jockeying or if perhaps DS got some pressure to show something more politically correct. Need to see what the other mappers say, I guess.
2. Pretty decent field taken on the Progress front, to the south of it and to the east of Zhelanne. It is now threatened from east, west, and north. and the only supply road (from east) was cut a couple days ago. Should be just a matter of time.
3. North of Progress (south of Timoofevke, spelling?): close up of a “pocket” that recently formed. Not strategically noteworthy, but does help the territory number and straightens the front.
4. Small increase in gray zone to the east of the southernmost slag heap on the Toretsk (Zalizne) sector. This position needs to be taken to continue towards Toretsk.

Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 4 2024 17:28 utc | 37

Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 4 2024 17:28 utc | 37
Why do you keep lying, shitbag? Nobody looks at your shitty channel deepstate. Look at Geroman, remylind23, etc. a lot more movement has been reported than your crap…

Posted by: Boo | Aug 4 2024 18:02 utc | 39

Because both sides lie

Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 4 2024 18:11 utc | 40
Which is why looking at the finances and economics generally gives a picture closer to the reality of the situation. These suggest that Ukraine is in deep doo-doo whilst Russia demonstrates resilience (a nasty surprise to some Western policy-makers) and strength in depth.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 4 2024 18:19 utc | 41

Posted by: vargas | Aug 4 2024 15:23 utc | 18
Well, for the same reason that anyone else defaults on instalment payments of course! They’re running out of cash.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 4 2024 18:21 utc | 43

So contracts insuring $10 million of the country’s bonds for five years were quoted at about $6 million upfront and $100,000 annually, signaling around 90% likelihood of default.”

Posted by: horseguards | Aug 4 2024 16:04 utc | 21
I wonder how many bondholders baulked at that risk premium and hence are uninsured? I suppose they could have hedged in some way, perhaps by some weird pair-trade e.g long gold/short UA bonds???
At any rate, there are now some ”assets” on some peoples balance sheets that have all the fungibility of high-level nuclear waste…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 4 2024 18:34 utc | 45

Stratotanker will refuel Ukrainian F16 aircraft that take off from the NATO air base in Romania and land at the Limanske airfield in the Odessa region
too scents | Aug 4 2024 18:20 utc | 42
Why would they need to refuel for that distance and where would that take place? In Moldova after only a few km of flight? In Ukr? I don’t understand

Posted by: rk | Aug 4 2024 18:42 utc | 47

It also represents the West looking ahead at transitioning the UKR to post Soviet equipment, within NATO. Would be interesting to see what Poland or other Warsaw Pact countries have done in this area.
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 4 2024 18:53 utc | 48

‘Transitioning’… yes, Ukraine had 200 MiG-29/Su-27 aircraft and 100 other aircraft which are no more, and now it ‘transitions’ to a dozen F-16 aircraft. What a huge upgrade/transition.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 4 2024 19:07 utc | 49

Posted by: J | Aug 4 2024 19:08 utc | 50
Sometimes the board software does it’s own thing…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 4 2024 19:14 utc | 51

“the F-16 will be used for air defense first, for long range strikes (with air launched missiles) next, and for CAS or direct strike (bombing) missions last.”
All at the same time, too!
The F-16 pilot will take off, try to shoot some geraniums, launch its missiles, then try to aim the plummeting and flaming wreckage of his aircraft at a Russian trench somewhere after it is hit by Russian AA fire.
It is a “brilliant” Ukrainian style plan.

Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 4 2024 19:43 utc | 53

If the F16 can take off, land, and be maintained in Ukraine, I predict it will do its part to attrit Russian forces. Comparing the F16 to Russian fighters, the Fighting Falcon does well, especially for a plane that first flew in the 1970s. The F16 was conceived in the renaissance of US Aviation and Lockheed’s skunkworks.
Barflies can’t take credit for downing even one F16 in Ukraine before it happens. Put down your Pom-Poms! SAMs aside, I predict the F16 will have at least a 1:1 kill ratio against Russian fighters. This would represent another win for ‘Attrition’ Joe Biden … the West simply juggles around their endless supply of F16s, while the Russian air force attrits.
Stop with this JDAM stuff. For one, an F16 pilot can just unload, dive bomb, even if JDAMs are jammed. Secondly the F16s can carry laser, infrared guided bombs, bunker buster, cruise missiles (ranges to 926 km), glide bombs (range 130 km), Anti-ship (range 124 km), HARM missiles (range 300 km). Rigging these weapons on a Russian fighter is vastly different than wedding them to the Flying Falcon with dynamic targeting.
Yes, a few Falcons will be taken out by Russia’s most excellent long range air to air missile. Yet don’t expect the F16 pilot to dictate his will while this is happening. The F16 has decoys, countermeasure pods and can maneuver fast.
Unlike the Russia fans, Putin cannot afford to be overconfident regarding the F16. He has generals, think tanks, and his MIC, working on the various problems they pose. He knows the F16 has been battle-tested and revised many times over to remain state of the art. Vlad will have to attrit resources to counter the threat of these angry wasps. The goals of Putin’s SMO are a joke, as the F16 further integrates Ukraine with NATO airpower. DeNATOfication has failed … so far.

Posted by: Napoleon | Aug 4 2024 20:21 utc | 55

53/Gruff:
What part of first, second, third did you not understand when you said “all at the same time”?

Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 4 2024 20:23 utc | 57

DPA frontline report:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=452XjnaHr1A
Overall: Pretty similar to DS, but some nuanced differences.
————-
North to south:
Serobranske forestry: UFA retook a Russian gain.
Chasiv Yar:
1. RFA claims additional area in the corner of the October district. (Note this disagrees with DS report. Have to wait and see who is right. Do not be sanguine that it is how you want it. Keep an open mind.)
2. RFA claims Novy area entry. This matches DS report.
Klishevka: RFA claims a field.
Andreevka: UFA claims recovery. RFA has claimed it for a long time, but never given proof.
Toretsk (Zalizne): RFA claims partial control of one slag heap and moving towards closing the pincer to the southwest (towards NY). Just claims though, except for about 30% of the area.
NY sector proper: Nothing, this time period.
Progress area:
1. Cites same DS report that Timofevka pocket closed up.
2. Same treelines area east of Zhelane (not sure if duplicating DS or independent).
3. Also pretty sizeable fields west of Nova Persha (towards Mezsomething or other). This is additive over DS map report.
4. Agrees with my view that Zhelane is in danger.
Konstantanivka: Small further incursion into SE part of the town.

Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 4 2024 20:26 utc | 59

Barflies can’t take credit for downing even one F16 in Ukraine before it happens. Put down your Pom-Poms! SAMs aside, I predict the F16 will have at least a 1:1 kill ratio against Russian fighters.
Posted by: Napoleon | Aug 4 2024 20:21 utc | 55
Ta gueule, connard!
F-15’s would have trouble against su-27.
F-16 would be made minced meat by mig-29.
F-16 vs su-35? Don’t make me laugh.

Posted by: Newbie | Aug 4 2024 20:32 utc | 61

Although I suppose the F-16s could always be seized by the bondholders, in lieu of coupon payments?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 4 2024 20:40 utc | 63

Because cynicism dictates we should measure all current events in only base terms:
F-16 will likely perform exactly as intended. . . just not in Ukraine;
After the requisite *good show* attempts and some unfortunate loses, they can be handed off to third parties for practical purposes, like bombing hapless goatherds.

Posted by: Nothingburgers | Aug 4 2024 20:52 utc | 65

Posted by: Nothingburgers | Aug 4 2024 20:52 utc | 65
Lloyd Austin asked Zelensky to return the remaining 12 Abrams tanks after their failure during the 2023 counter-offensive. US gave something like 30 Abrams tanks for that offensive.
Most likely Lloyd Austin will ask the remaining F-16s back after a month or so after they go a ‘bit too far’.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 4 2024 20:58 utc | 67

The F-16s were already spotted in Ukraine (like other posters mentioned), that means the Ukrainians have been given the go ahead to use them at will. Unlike some people here, I don’t underestimate the capabilities of the F-16. Russia is in for a world of hurt.

Posted by: bored | Aug 4 2024 21:00 utc | 69

Ukrainian officer about Russian assaults: “They found their effective system”
▪️A Ukrainian officer with the call sign “Alex” conveyed the impressions of the military of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade about the tactics of the Russians in the Toretsk direction.
▪️According to them, the assaults are continuous and mainly infantry, without the use of equipment, which makes drones ineffective. Enemies operate in groups of seven, “clearing first one position, then the second.” As a result, there are dead and wounded on the Ukrainian side, while the Russians “didn’t even have any wounded.”
▪️“They fight very intelligently, they have found a working system and are acting on it. Our artillery is very hard to work with. There are 10-15 “Eagles” or “Zala” constantly hanging in the sector. Infantry support becomes a game of roulette – they immediately cover with FPV or counter-battery,” share the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers.
RVvoenkor

https://x.com/simpatico771/status/1820197634176602297

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 4 2024 21:06 utc | 71

Pssst, wanna see something move faster than an F-16?
https://www.usdebtclock.org/

Just a friendly reminder…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 4 2024 21:16 utc | 73

southfront has a video up from zelenskiyjiivhoweveritsspelled presenting the f16, and by golly it reeks of hollywood production level of presentation. and i dont speak of the good hollywood of yore. more modern, like the bad french movies.
who are those things made for? people like napoleon or vargas maybe?
did they have the same type of movie made for all their previous planes (now destroyed)? or for ever other piece of wunderwaffel so far? remember all the wunderwaffels?
or have people already memoryholed every piece of wunderwaffel propaganda we had so far? surely the highly educated people in the west have a good memory. right?
god this is so embarrassing. zum fremdschämen.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Aug 4 2024 21:25 utc | 75

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 4 2024 20:59 utc | 68
‘But the F-16’s being able to take down the Russian aircraft while still well out of range for them?’
They can’t, networked doesn’t increase the range of the missiles they carry, only the fact that platforms can communicate real-time data to each other. This theoretically means that the missiles it carries can be fired at their maximum range, but the usual restrictions on their use will still apply.
The Russians also can share information, probably not as effectively, but the Su’s will have datalink to their AWACS, so will also be theoretically able to launch missiles at similar ranges. The Russian aircraft though are part of an integrated AD network, and the F-16’s are not, so the odds favour the Russians.
Final point, the Russians have had a year to prepare, so it will be interesting to see what tactics they use. My guess is that they will amend their maxim, about the definition of air superiority, so that the tank at the end of the runway is substituted for an Iskander!

Posted by: Milites | Aug 4 2024 21:35 utc | 77

Posted by: Milites | Aug 4 2024 21:35 utc | 77
That would be really something if they land the F-16s on the airfield to refuel and RUAF blows up their fuel depots, or trucks. The planes will be left stranded.
Or they could just go straight for the planes, like they did a month ago in Nikolaev region.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 4 2024 21:39 utc | 79

Apparently there was a photo shoot with Zelensky and F-16 in the Odessa region base. After that the F-16 went back to Constanta, Romania. So the F-16 is armed in Constanta, and they are equipped with an additional drop fuel tank. Or they may refuel in this particular base in Odessa region, which pre-war hosted two MiG-29 regiments.
But when you think rationally, the weapons launched by F-16 are the same, namely Storm Shadow missiles. RUAF has already had a long time to experience dealing with them, so the F-16 platform itself doesn’t give any inherent advantage. If the past is any indication, RUAF could allow them to come closer and launch, and when they land somewhere to refuel, they can hit them on the ground. Or there are various other means to destroy them.
Most likely besides trying to make some strikes on Crimea, though, they will stay somewhere in the center for drone or missile interception duty.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 4 2024 21:18 utc | 74
I have to correct my initial hypothesis about refueling tankers.
I now think that it’s main role, given the limited pilots available, is to work as AD against drones and cruise missiles (ideally far from the LOC)
And to stay airborne time enough, external tanks and refuelling.
And the pilot has to bail, hence the pod, when attacked.
With all reserves about the bias, this article (and some of the linked ones) helped me make this assessment.
https://www.twz.com/air/f-16-officially-in-ukrainian-service-self-protection-pods-included

Posted by: Newbie | Aug 4 2024 21:44 utc | 81

Mali Severs Diplomatic Relations With Ukraine – Reports

On July 30 the Senenews media outlet reported that authorities in Mali and Mauritania were investigating the involvement of Ukrainian military instructors in the year-long conflict in Mali on the side of the rebels.

the far reaching tentacles of the terrorsupporting nazis of the kiev putsch regime, sponsored by yours truly, the defensive alliance of eu(rotards) and their puppetmaster us, nato.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Aug 4 2024 21:48 utc | 83

Posted by: Napoleon | Aug 4 2024 20:21 utc | 55
It doesn’t matter what the F-16 can do with NATO they won’t do much of anything for Ukraine simply because of physics.
An air to air missiles’s flight time and ability to catch an opponents aircraft is a function of kinetic energy. All other factors being equal the aircraft flying fastest and highest has the advantage in an air to air missile engagement because the aircrafts altitude and speed is transferred to the missile giving it a longer flight time at greater speed.
Like Ukraine’s current SU-24’s and mig-29 the F-16’s have to fly below the curve of the earth in order to stay out of radar range of Russian air superiority fighters and SAMs. They are never going to win a missile engagement if the missiles they fire have to climb to 50,000 ft to find a target while the Russian aircraft are shooting down on the F-16 from miles above.
With luck though the F-16 will be able to launch the odd cruise missile or glide bomb just like Ukraines current fleet provided they do it in a location that isn’t defended.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Aug 4 2024 22:00 utc | 85

The f16s are enhancers for air defense outside the range of an su57 with 200km plus air to air missles. The su57 is stealthy enough from a distance and russia has been doing well at hitting AD systems when the Ukrainians push them up to “ambush” unwary russian pilots.
So I’m think it’s best use will be loudly reminding locals that Ukraine has powerful weapons. A few long range cruise missle attacks anything that’s outside Air to Air missle range. They may even keep 300km just to be safe.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 4 2024 22:07 utc | 87

Posted by: Jerr | Aug 4 2024 22:08 utc | 88
The key point with the F-16s is that they are armed in Constanta, a Nato air base.
Nato lost in the sense that they couldn’t build a sustainable air base capable of arming aircraft. RUAF demolished all efforts. Now we are degraded to direct attacks launched from Nato airbases.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 4 2024 22:21 utc | 89

In case of direct F16 attack from NATO air base what would that mean?
Would that mean that the related country is in war with Russia or tat the whole NATO is in war.

Posted by: vargas | Aug 4 2024 22:36 utc | 91

Houthis brought down the 7th attack drone MQ-9 Reaper.

Posted by: Naive | Aug 4 2024 22:57 utc | 93

Newbie | Aug 4 2024 22:03 utc | 86
Islanders have a good chance of getting the pilots as well. With a good warning system many pilots would survive their aircraft being target and shot down.
But whatever. They will go the way of the mighty Leopards and Abrams. Nato might gety in a few propaganda hits but that is meaningless in the scale of things. The end result that Nato will burn, like the mighty Leopards, Abrams, and now F-16’s is near inevitable.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 4 2024 23:09 utc | 95

Milites | Aug 4 2024 21:35 utc | 77
That is mostly my take on it also.
Nato on its part looking to see how they can cut through Russian defenses, Russia on its part looking at how to counter whatever comes and destroy it.
It will be interesting to watch in a way. Nato may well get in a few early hits, but then Russia will counter and destroy is my take.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 4 2024 23:17 utc | 97

In an aerial combat simulation between Indian Air Force MiG 21 Bisons and USAF F15Cs sometime back COPE 2004, the F15Cs came out second best.
This article talks about how US F5 aggressor aircrafts chalk up more “kills” than you would imagine possible against top line US fighters.
Are the F16s going to make a difference? No!
The point is don’t underestimate or write off anything, that’s all.
There’s news Russian AD are intercepting Patriot missiles. The assumption is 404 is using Patriot in a SSM role much like the S200 earlier in the conflict.
That recent spy swap has ruffled quite a few feathers. Possibly, State Department was completely in the dark. Zelensky believes there could be secret negotiations made/ongoing with Russia with regards to current conflict.
https://www.twz.com/26880/enough-with-the-indian-mig-21-bison-versus-pakistani-f-16-viper-bullshit

Posted by: Suresh | Aug 4 2024 23:34 utc | 99