Ukraine Develops 'Its Own' Cruise Missile
On the Ukrainian independence day former President Zelenski announced that Ukraine's forces would soon use a "rocket driven drone":
On 24 August, during the Saturday ceremonies for Ukraine's Independence Day, Volodymyr Zelensky stated that today, Ukrainian forces for the first time targeted enemy troops with a new long-range drone.- This is our new method of retaliating against the aggressor. The enemy was hit. Thank you to everyone who made this possible. All the developers, manufacturers, and our soldiers. I am proud of you, Zelensky said during his speech, quoted by the Ukrainska Pravda portal.
The rocket-drone system, produced indigenously by Ukraine and gracefully named "Paljanica" (like the traditional Ukrainian wheat flour bread, which symbolizes hospitality and happiness), is a military innovation. During the official ceremonies, Zelensky stressed that it is a weapon of a "completely new class". He emphasized that "it is difficult to counteract it, but very easy to understand why."
The work on the rocket-drone was carried out in secrecy.
Zelenski published a video that shows a second of the cruise missile in flight.
HI Sutton of Covert Shores created this picture from it.
bigger
This is not a drone but a turbojet driven cruise missile. Ukraine announced that it has been tested and could be used soon:
Defense Minister Rustem Umerov promised Monday the weapon would be used again soon in response to the overnight attack on Ukraine.“Ukraine is preparing its response. Weapons of its own production,” he wrote on his Facebook page. “This once again proves that for victory, we need long-range capabilities and the lifting of restrictions on strikes on the enemy’s military facilities.”
A Ukrainian military video hinted that its range is up to 700 kilometers (430 miles) — on par with the U.S.-supplied ATACMS. It showed a map with various airfields, including Russia’s Savasleyka air base, which lies within that range, adding that the Palianytsia can reach at least 20 Russian airfields.
Russia has expected longer range missile strikes for some time and its defenses are positioned appropriately. Another Ukrainian 'wonder weapon' will not impress it. Ukraine claims that the cruise missile was developed by itself:
One of the specialists involved in the long-range missile project said it was “a completely new development, from scratch” that began about 18 months ago.“This is not an extension of an old Soviet project,” said the specialist, speaking on condition of anonymity to safeguard the project’s secrecy. The missile has a solid-fuel booster that accelerates it, followed by a jet engine, the specialist said.
...
The specialist and Fedorov said each missile costs less than $1 million, and the military is turning to the private sector to bring down production costs further. “The private market generates solutions incredibly quickly,” the minister said.
I doubt that Ukraine has created its own cruise missile. There are too many parts of such systems, especially the navigation and targeting modules, that need high end solutions to be able to counter Russian electronic warfare measures and to deceive Russian air defenses. It expect that these will be derivatives from western projects.
Aside from that all Ukraine's weapon and especially missile manufacturing facilities have been hit several times by Russian missiles. This morning a new large missile and drone attack again hit "the critical power infrastructure of Ukrainian defence industry". Next to other infrastructure today's strike damaged three irreplaceable 750 kilovolt transformer stations and several 330 kv stations.
The new Ukrainian cruise missile was probably designed by the U.S. or UK and its various modules will likely be assembled in Poland instead of Ukraine. Still, it will be a hassle to produce many of these. That is likely the reason why the Ukrainian leadership is begging daily to allow it to use long range missiles produced by the U.S. or Britain to hit targets within Russia.
So far the U.S. has blocked such moves because it fears retaliation by Russia. Russia has threatened to deliver such weapons from Russian production to U.S. enemies should the U.S. proceed and allow Ukraine to hit with U.S. weapons within Russia.
A "Ukrainian" cruise missile would of course eliminate that problem.
Posted by b on August 26, 2024 at 16:01 UTC | Permalink
next page »Ukraine has no human capital to speak of; anyone vaguely competent has left the place long before the 2022 escalation. Zelenski exists in a perpetual haze of delusion and psychosis.
Posted by: Tré | Aug 26 2024 16:06 utc | 2
thanks b.. "derivatives from western projects." isn't that a fine summary of everything ukraine stands for now?
@ grid5 | Aug 26 2024 16:03 utc | 1
i think it isn't just the idea of russia supplying others with its weapons, it is the thought if the west continues in this mad pursuit, russia will have to respond directly to big sugar daddy... that is how it works..
Posted by: james | Aug 26 2024 16:09 utc | 3
How do you now distinguish a conventional Ukrainian cruise missile from a American nuclear cruise missile launched from Ukraine?
Posted by: floobart | Aug 26 2024 16:14 utc | 5
So… a repainted tomahawk with serial numbers removed.
I wonder if the Russians will be fooled?
Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 26 2024 16:17 utc | 6
I guess it's time for Syrians and Iraqis to 'develop' their own missiles too then?
Or maybe Venezuelans or Libyans can 'develop' solar powered floating platforms, headed for Florida or Europe, loaded with pre-programmed gps guided drones? It's a good thing Russians aren't really known for their creativity, or their necessity to be overly inventive..
Posted by: Rubiconned | Aug 26 2024 16:19 utc | 7
> The new Ukrainian cruise missile was probably designed by the U.S. or UK and its various modules will likely be assembled in Poland instead of Ukraine.
The turbine will doubtlessly be supplied by China.
http://www.swiwin.net/en/index.html
The fuel efficiency of small turbines is very poor, and flying them at low altitudes where the air is warm makes their range even worse.
Posted by: too scents | Aug 26 2024 16:23 utc | 10
Any truth on the rumors that Iran is about to complete the development of its own self-invented nuclear missile, and that the Huthi are looking forward to sinking the first US aircraft carrier with their own, Home-Made Iskander missile in the very near future?
Posted by: Marvin | Aug 26 2024 16:23 utc | 11
Posted by: grid5 | Aug 26 2024 16:03 utc | 1
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
These two (2) wars are fought identically by the enemy [country 404 and the Zionist project].
Both wars are Zionist wars.
Both wars are being lost and Russian as always is winning.
Posted by: AI | Aug 26 2024 16:34 utc | 12
Elon Musk has become the “hated American” throughout Ukraine.He had told them that Starlink will not work in Russia. And then it did not work in Kursk. And everyone is surprised.
https://x.com/AlternatNews/status/1828056446442893669
A bit of video at the link and the Ukrainians believe it was switched off rather than jammed by Russia.
Could be right as Musk is part of the realist faction that wants to dump the Ukraine project.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 26 2024 16:35 utc | 13
Once Ukraine fires this deep into Russia, whatever gloves are still on will come off, and things will accelerate toward NATO entering the conflict openly and formally.
Ukraine doesn't have much time left but NATO is still not defeated. Every time I look at a map, I can't help but keep noticing NATO Finland with its bases being built on Russia's border. The great thing about Finland, from a Russian perspective, is that they are not ancestral lands and are not occupied by brother Slavs.
We may finally see the Russian military engaged in total war.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 26 2024 16:36 utc | 14
Perhaps what we have seen hitting a Saratov Russia residential tower some 800 km from Ukraine forces is a Ukrainian version/upgrade of the Yemen Quds-1 used against Saudi Arabia.
The following is a detailed analysis of the construction and characteristics of the Quds-1:
https://jetguyone.home.blog/
https://jetguyone.home.blog/2019/09/27/quds-1-update/
See also The Face Of NATO... at:
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/
Posted by: krollchem | Aug 26 2024 16:39 utc | 15
Ukraine has a modern version of a buzz bomb. And it's from a Ukraine weapons industry independent of US/NATO? Will it deflect away from NATO when Ukraine uses it to strike deeper in Russia? Russia is not fooled. This changes little.
Posted by: curtis | Aug 26 2024 16:45 utc | 16
The Neptune missile supposedly built be Ukraine would have been the same as this new Ukraine wunderwaffe. A Nato project.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 26 2024 16:45 utc | 17
too scents@ 10
Given the rabid nature of the President of the Czech Republic, the cruise missile engine used by Ukraine is most likely a TY100, or upgrade, manufactured in the Czech Republic.
Posted by: krollchem | Aug 26 2024 16:48 utc | 18
Was the ABM radar targeted in Crimea, because it would probably detect these If it was a genuine homegrown product they would have only revealed its existence when Russia reported its use against their territory. Because they have to invent a cover story though, for the introduction of Western missiles targeting Russia, they have to make this counter-intuitive statement, which is comically deceptive.
My guess, stripped down Western models, modded to disguise their country of origin possibly launched by aircraft or towed naval rig. Russia though has aviation assets that were specifically designed for this target set, that Ukraine does not posses and probably retaliatory capabilities that have not been seen yet.
Posted by: Milites | Aug 26 2024 16:55 utc | 19
It’s not called the V-1, by any chance?
Posted by: Milites | Aug 26 2024 16:21 utc | 8
Exactly.
Posted by: Mario | Aug 26 2024 16:57 utc | 20
https://youtu.be/miRlTzDPxFw?si=3a0tK5wAiKoqig6i
Millennium 7 has a video of on one of the upgrades on the Ukrainian F-16s. It's basically a threat detection system.
It's a great channel for military Aviation information.
Posted by: David G Horsman | Aug 26 2024 16:57 utc | 21
Sounds like a knock-down kit but applied to cruise missiles instead of cars. Anyone know what the state the Motor Sich factory is in?
Posted by: Passerby | Aug 26 2024 16:58 utc | 22
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Aug 26 2024 16:36 utc | 14
If what's available in the public domain is true NATO lags way behind Russia in weapon production and I don't think they can compensate with cannon fodder, expecially if USA don't fully join in.
So, Ukraine will loose the war without NATO going boot on the ground, but that was predictably by the very beginning.
NATO boot on the ground do not grant victory staying conventional.
Remaining option is nuclear if they are crazy/desperate enough to give it a try.
Inly hope to be very near to the strike point.
Posted by: Mario | Aug 26 2024 17:04 utc | 23
the cruise missile engine used by Ukraine is most likely a TY100, or upgrade, manufactured in the Czech Republic.
Posted by: krollchem | Aug 26 2024 16:48 utc | 18
---
Yeah. I know about the much copied TJ-100. Just like the Shahed motor is a copy of the German Limbach 550.
The thing is, just like Limbach, Sonex doesn't have a serious production capability. Russia is consuming thousands of Shahed/Geraniums per month. Sonex has made maybe 1000 turbine engines *total*.
If you're gonna dream, dream big.
Posted by: too scents | Aug 26 2024 17:09 utc | 24
I take these new missiles will be launched from F16s?
Posted by: HERMIUS | Aug 26 2024 17:10 utc | 25
So is it me or have the Uke Nazis now recreated the V2 rockets?
Posted by: IcyReaper | Aug 26 2024 17:11 utc | 26
Is it a coinidink that the first commenter is just in off the street and is laying down the lie that Russia will use nukes first?....because they are losing.
Project BS much?
Its only barbarians that use nukes and execute genocide on fellow humans...we will see how poor losers they are....if they take they rest of us with them it will probably be better than living this social cruelty.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 26 2024 17:11 utc | 27
Anyone know what the state the Motor Sich factory is in?
Posted by: Passerby | Aug 26 2024 16:58 utc | 22
It was hit pretty had a year or two back and haven't heard any more of it since.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 26 2024 17:14 utc | 28
Anyone know what the state the Motor Sich factory is in?
Posted by: Passerby | Aug 26 2024 16:58 utc | 22
---
Factories need power.
Posted by: too scents | Aug 26 2024 17:14 utc | 29
Russia needs to pick a large field in the Kursk,Russia area, and pop of a small mini nuke, large enough for the Nato bastards to see it. It doesn't have to target anyone . Then explain that we won't need to use them in Ukraine, but the next Nato incursion into Russia means we will notch up the load. Ukraine army can surrender but Nato won't. They still have plenty of little huckleberry nato countries to sacrifice for the cause. So far , Russia has lost way too much, compared to Nato.
Posted by: GMC | Aug 26 2024 17:18 utc | 30
It’s not called the V-1, by any chance?
Posted by: Milites | Aug 26 2024 16:21 utc | 8
Hopefully the finished version will have duct at the rear.
Posted by: Nokaz | Aug 26 2024 17:18 utc | 31
Darpa : Hey Kokhols ! I made that , can you try it ?
Hellensky : I made that and I'll try it ...
VKS : he tried it, it failed and he died.
The fun thing is every time Russia is doing something , 404 says he can do better but ultimately don't and/or fail trying and CNN says he did and humiliate Putin.
Funny how this world runs these days :).
Posted by: Savonarole | Aug 26 2024 17:18 utc | 32
Will Schryver....
Ioannis is a typical specimen of the self-important clueless clown Russian subspecies, with zero common sense and an embarrassingly ill-informed and vanishingly narrow perspective of the geopolitical and military dynamics at work in the world at this point in time.
In my view, it is objectively indisputable that Russian leadership in general, and Vladimir Putin in particular, have managed their affairs extraordinarily well both over the course of this war, as well as over the course of the past quarter century.
If people like Ioannis had been in charge of Russian military matters since February 2022, not only would Russian losses be MUCH higher, but we would not currently be witnessing the shockingly comprehensive dismantling of the military might of the United States and its abject European colonies, even as Russia's military power, adaptability, innovation, industrial productivity, and combat-experience have become unrivaled on the global stage.
The US/NATO have been exposed in the eyes of the entire world as strategically inept and logistically incompetent. The supposed superiority of their weaponry has been exposed as a complete myth, with the overwhelming majority of their armaments being entirely inadequate to the requirements and rigors of 21st century high-intensity warfare.
Meanwhile, Russia, China, and Iran have forged an unbeatable military and economic alliance. All they need to do now is patiently wait for the inevitable implosion of the fatally overextended American empire and its dilapidated vassals.
Yes, the Russians may need to painfully restrain themselves from retaliating en force in the face of yet a few more strategically meaningless provocations — carefully seeking to avert a nuclear war while still achieving total victory over the dying hegemon is a dicey business.
But Putin and his leadership team have so far navigated the tempest with impressive wisdom and foresight. All things considered, I submit no world leader of modern times could have done better than Putin has.
And I brazenly mock people like the intellectually mediocre @AndrisIoannis
, the type of which remains the greatest risk to Russia's ultimate victory, future prosperity, and enduring sovereignty.
And that's all I have to say about that.
...................
That's the reason I have stopped reading virtually all Russian bloggers. The frontline reporters generally ok but the rest would take the world straight into full scale nuclear war.
This Victor vicktop55 used to be okay, his twitter would usually have links to worthwhile stuff but now its filled with whinging crap and hardly worth looking at.
Those bloggers wanting more war are now as dangerous to Russia as the liberals were in the 90's.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 26 2024 17:29 utc | 33
As I understand it, this is a jet powered drone that will fly the same way their propeller drones fly, with a starlink system bypassing geo restraints set to fly below radar by watching the ground and hugging the terrain. It's not a cruise missle in the same way russia designed it's cruise missles.
I anticipate given the larger warhead, and longer range to be a dangerous weapon that will be hard to detect and intercept.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 26 2024 17:33 utc | 34
without israhell hell without Ukrainian the oded yinon the new khazharia projects go.
these fake counterfeit, jurisdictionally non existent locations are vital for the khazharian mafia trillion dollar money launder schemes not to mention live organ dealings.
blackrock vanguard rottenstein cargill bayer monsatan monsanto must be very worried at this point not to mention the Imf
Posted by: byron | Aug 26 2024 17:37 utc | 35
Well, maybe it's time then for the Houthis to start developing "their own cruise missiles" as well
Posted by: Ali | Aug 26 2024 17:37 utc | 36
given the larger warhead, and longer range
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 26 2024 17:33 utc | 34
---
It will have a smaller warhead and shorter range than the Shahed/Geranium, whose fat wings carry a lot of fuel and whose piston engine is far more efficient than a gas turbine.
There is no free lunch in aerodynamics/thermodynamics. Speed consumes fuel exponentially.
Posted by: too scents | Aug 26 2024 17:39 utc | 37
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 26 2024 17:33 utc | 34
Why should it be hard to detect and hard to intercept?
Be aware, the bigger they are the easier they will be to detect and intercept.
Posted by: Mario | Aug 26 2024 17:39 utc | 39
At this point the USA deserves nukes for Venezuela and Cuba.
Posted by: Northern Observer | Aug 26 2024 17:43 utc | 40
"A "Ukrainian" cruise missile would of course eliminate that problem."
Surely Russian military heads - will know, that the West has had a hand in building this missile - which in my book, makes them liable, and open to Russian retaliation - in whatever form that takes.
It may also be that Nato - is using Ukraine (with the addition of this "new" missile) to try an draw Russia out - into a full scale attack on Ukraine, in the hope that it makes mistakes -and becomes vulnerable to attack.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Aug 26 2024 17:52 utc | 41
Ukrainian losses for August 26th, as reported by the Russian defence ministry:
- Sever Group (Kharkov): 90 troops, 1 IFV, 2 motor vehicles, 3 artillery pieces, 2 counter-battery systems.
- Zapad Group (Luhansk area): 480 troops, 1 tank, 1 HMV, 10 motor vehicles, 6 artillery pieces, 3 EW systems, 1 counter-battery system.
- Yug Group (Donetsk north): 570 troops, 1 AFV, 7 motor vehicles, 8 artillery pieces, 2 EW systems.
- Tsetr Group (Donetsk south): 585 troops, 3 tanks, 1 APC, 1 LAV/ HMV, 8 artillery pieces.
- Vostok Group (southern front): 135 troops, 5 motor vehicles, 1 artillery piece.
- Dnepr Group: 70 troops, 5 motor vehicles, 1 artillery piece, 1 EW systems.
In total: 1,930 troops (2,500 with undercounting: 75,000 a month). About average.
4 tanks, 3 AFV/IFV/APC, 2 HMV/Light Armoured Vehicle, 29 motor vehicles. Further evidence of the transformation of the Ukrainians to an infantry using HMV/light armoured vehicles, “technicals” (pickup trucks with mounted weapons), and civilian vehicles for mobility.
27 artillery pieces, about average, at a rate of about 900 a month. 6 EW systems and 2 counter-battery systems. These are still catastrophic daily loss levels.
In addition, the Russians have become adept at shooting down and jamming Ukrainian (i.e. Western manufactured) guided bombs, missiles, rockets and the mostly locally-made drones.
It has been noted in the Pokrovsk area that Russian drones seem to be able to operate with little EW interference.
Peter AU1 @13AFAICT Musk has consistently stated he would not permit use of Starlink for offensive attacks against Russia, whether it is because he does not want to be seen as enabling escalation or because Russia told him they would blow up his StarLink network if he did or some other reason doesn't matter, that has been his position, so the Ukies were idiots to rely on it for their comms during their invasion.Could be right as Musk is part of the realist faction that wants to dump the Ukraine project.
Besides that Ukies had asked StarLink to disable service over Russia so Russian forces could not use it for their own comms. I suppose the Ukies could have asked StarLink to enable service over parts of Kursk after the invasion kicked off, though I don't know how easily and quickly those parameters can be changed.
Posted by: CalDre | Aug 26 2024 17:56 utc | 43
Ukrainian Defence Minsuter ‘wrote on his Facebook page’
Tells you everything right there
Posted by: Jm | Aug 26 2024 17:56 utc | 44
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 26 2024 17:29 utc | 33
From <https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/08/ukraine-develops-its-own-cruise-missile.html#comments>
All dead true. Pity.
Spare a thought for our proxies. Most of them didn't ask to be piggy in the middle and in fact voted against it when they had the chance.
Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 26 2024 17:56 utc | 45
Perhaps what we have seen hitting a Saratov Russia residential tower some 800 km from Ukraine
Posted by: krollchem | Aug 26 2024 16:39 utc | 15
They are probably launched from inside Russia. If 10k people with tens of tanks entered Russia "suddenly by surprise", you think it's hard to bring a drone by car and hit a simple civilian building anywhere you want? It's the natural result of faking the smo and negotiating with terrorists. According to Peskov today, Kursk attack will have an answer some day. Right... any minute now.
Its only barbarians that use nukes and execute genocide on fellow humans...we will see how poor losers they are....if they take they rest of us with them it will probably be better than living this social cruelty.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 26 2024 17:11 utc | 27
Your brain can't accept others can do the same to you, isn't it? Denial won't help you. It's in the same logic some forgotten users here claimed Zeli can never be killed because only nato is allowed to assassinate.
Posted by: rk | Aug 26 2024 18:04 utc | 46
Grid5@1603
What those puppet regimes controlled by the enemies of humanity fear is NOT nuclear retaliation of the part of the R.U., rather it is existential fear on the part of the coverted controllers that their very "precious" banks and various other installations will be targeted by purely kinetic versions of their unstoppable hypersonic missiles.
Posted by: aristodemos | Aug 26 2024 18:10 utc | 47
and in fact voted against it when they had the chance.
Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 26 2024 17:56 utc | 45
Year. That is why I am thinking that with the far west, where they have many monuments to Bandera chopped off, central Ukraine will be a different place. I am now assuming that will become an autonomous region of Russia or something similar.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 26 2024 18:15 utc | 48
Marvin@1623
Should it come to pass that a U$N carrier will be stricken and possibly sunk...it will NOT be accomplished on the part of the Ansar Allah Houties or any other iteration of the axis of Resistance. Rather, these recapitulations of "Remember the Main'; "Remember the Lusitania";' "Remember Pearl Harbor"' "Remember the Tonkin Gulf"; "Remember the 911 Inside Job' "Remember those Weapons of Mass Destruction; "Remember Ad Nauseam"...all False Flags.
ANY sinking or heavy casualty incident to the long-nosed, deliberately exposed American carriers would be strictly done by actions of the sinking Zionist Entity in Occupied Palestine.
Posted by: aristodemos | Aug 26 2024 18:17 utc | 49
krollchem @15According to the Moscow Times, the damage was caused by drone debris, though the damage looks to me to have likely been caused by a (misfired) AAM.Perhaps what we have seen hitting a Saratov Russia residential tower some 800 km from Ukraine forces ....
rk @46One would think Russia can tell the type of drone being used from the debris and determine if the maximum range required launch from inside Russia. Except for one incident a year or so ago I don't recall Russia claiming such attacks originated inside Russia.They are probably launched from inside Russia
Posted by: CalDre | Aug 26 2024 18:20 utc | 50
Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 26 2024 16:17 utc | 6
So… a repainted tomahawk with serial numbers removed.I wonder if the Russians will be fooled?
Would you expect a particular Russian response in the event that they aren't fooled?
Posted by: robin | Aug 26 2024 18:20 utc | 51
@ Peter AU1 | Aug 26 2024 16:35 utc | 13
elon musk has gone off the cia reservation, lol... they will have to pull him in like that have durov and set him straight!!!
Posted by: james | Aug 26 2024 18:22 utc | 52
{erhaps what we have seen hitting a Saratov Russia residential tower some 800 km from Ukraine forces is a Ukrainian version/upgrade of the Yemen Quds-1 used against Saudi Arabia.
Posted by: krollchem | Aug 26 2024 16:39 utc | 15
---
There is pretty clear video of the strike on the Engles tower block.
The drone is pusher motor canard type. Probably a Bober.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20129
Posted by: too scents | Aug 26 2024 18:24 utc | 53
CalDre | Aug 26 2024 18:20 utc | 50
Relativly small amount of damage so not a large warhead. A relatively large long range drone would also have to have a relatively small warhead due to the payload.
It seems likely Nato can chart a course to alow a drone to find its way through air defense, but then it can only hit an unprotected sit - civilian.
Attacks for the optics.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 26 2024 18:26 utc | 54
james | Aug 26 2024 18:22 utc | 52
A lot of things really odd about the Kursk adventure and I put it down to the two factions in the US. I think Kursk is mostly Brit and European, no doubt with the nod from the now minority globalist faction in the US - with the purpose of pulling the US deeper into the war with Russia rather than dumping it.
That has not happened, and as the Brit and European elite have bet the farm on taking Russia down....
That this hasn't pulled the Americans in bigtime, instead distancing themselves from it further, even Brit false flags could be off the table now, though time will tell on that one.
In the short bit of video I linked of Wilkerson with the Judge, he said its a pity US can't just say its over until the election. He said its a pity because more Ukrainians and Russians will die just because of that.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 26 2024 18:38 utc | 55
too scents @53Thanks for the link, agree it's probably a Bober, which supposedly has a 1,000 km range whilst the distance from Dnipro to the Volga Sky apartment complex is about 870 km.There is pretty clear video of the strike on the Engles tower block[, p]robably a Bober.
Posted by: CalDre | Aug 26 2024 18:45 utc | 56
@37,39
Re: speed vs weight vs detection
For detection it won't depend on location and a built in map to determine height, it will automatically lower its height by watching the terrain it's over. This different than traditional cruise missles and a lesson learned from ukraines airplane type drones that keep russian oil storage.
As for the geraniums being bigger and more efficient that is true and I suspect they will incorporate ukrainian technology for lower flying in the near future.
I've seen videos of geraniums and cruise missles and they fly pretty high much higher than necessarily.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 26 2024 18:48 utc | 57
English Outsider| 45
Thanks the Lord, EO is back on MoA! I have commented days ago about the absence of EO's comments.
Your comment about the 'piggies' in the middle, which have no voice, in the scheme of 'democratic West' is spot on.
The democratic West has its freedom as in the 'freedom of democratic Ukraine and democratic Israel' - is what Dr. M. Hudson mentions in his interview accessible in karlof1' substack
https://karlof1.substack.com/p/priceless-education-from-dr-hudson
Dr. Hudson will soon be treated like Assange, or Scott Ritter if he continues in that vain... (irony alert!)
Posted by: fanto | Aug 26 2024 18:50 utc | 58
Respectfully, I think you are mistaken when you write "gracefully named "Paljanica" (like the traditional Ukrainian wheat flour bread, which symbolizes hospitality and happiness),". While this is true, the REAL point of naming this cruise missile Paljanica is because of the (false) belief by many Ukrainians that Russians cannot pronounce Paljanica correcting (the other such word is "Ukrzaliznytsia" - Ukrainian railways). In reality, it is very easy for Russian speakers to correctly pronounce these words, but the myth is out there and that is mostly likely the REAL reason this cruise missile got its name.
Cheers!
Posted by: The Saker | Aug 26 2024 18:51 utc | 59
This missile could be nothing more than some Nato missile like Storm shadow or Scalp, with same internals, propulsion and guidance, with redesigned outer shell. Time after time it is worth to be repeated that Ukraine has NO other function than provide the meat shield for the UK and US.
As to what inherent benefit designing a new cruise missile brings Ukraine vs. just giving some pre-existing missiles is a question mark. Literally everything for PR.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 26 2024 18:53 utc | 60
This missile could be nothing more than some Nato missile like Storm shadow or Scalp, with same internals, propulsion and guidance, with redesigned outer shell. Time after time it is worth to be repeated that Ukraine has NO other function than provide the meat shield for the UK and US.
As to what inherent benefit designing a new cruise missile brings Ukraine vs. just giving some pre-existing missiles is a question mark. Literally everything for PR.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 26 2024 18:53 utc | 61
too scents@53
Looks like you are correct about the type of drone used in the attack.
Posted by: krollchem | Aug 26 2024 18:55 utc | 62
Amazing! Ukraine has spontaneously and independently advanced their missile technology during a war time economy. Usually these sort of developments are the product of decades of effort. Naturally the new weapon resembles the Soviet missile products the Ukrainians have the most knowledge about missile development being a long process of development.
Considering the effort involved in the appearance of this new "sterile" weapon do you think the probable outcomes of its deployment have not been considered? Peter is correct the "neptune" missile that sank the Moskva is also a amazing spontaneous and independent advancement of Ukrainian missile technology the reports that it was a "harpoon" misinformation. What is the probable outcome of spontaneously and independently developed "sterile" weapons technologies? What will Russia do if these spontaneously and independently developed "sterile" cruise missiles start destroying Russian critical infrastructure devoid of any constraints on a scale not previously observed? Of course its none of anyone's business how Ukraine defends themselves with their spontaneously and independently developed weapon against Russia's unprovoked aggression. The probable outcomes are obviously not relevant no matter what they may be. Thats just how the cookie crumbles. This is out of anyone's hands except the Ukrainians. If it results in a unknown and unforeseen catastrophe of some sort however the responsibility lies solely with the Russians as a result of their unprovoked aggression. They should have thought about that before starting trouble in the area of their sole warm water port. Thats why we see no reporting on introduction of miraculous introductions of weapons technology in the press. Its simplu
Obviously the developers of the weapon feel this will lead to a Russian capitulation. Thats obvious because we know that their goal is continuation of peace and prosperity. In any case its simply inappropriate to speculate what the probable outcome of this spontaneously and autonomously developed weapon system is. Ukrainian right to defend itself against unprovoked aggression is absolute as a autonomous nation asserting its right to self determination. Thats why we see no reporting on introduction of miraculous weapons technology in the press. Its simply inappropriate. Only pertinent topics are discussed like the effects of climate change on butterfly population. Thank goodness we are finally presented only with relevant information and inappropriate and misleading topics are not presented.
Posted by: Corruptionerruption | Aug 26 2024 18:58 utc | 63
@ Peter AU1 | Aug 26 2024 18:38 utc | 55
thanks peter.. you probably have that right... the upper strata in the uk are nuts.. here is an article from john helmer today, sort of tangential to all this that some here might enjoy reading.. he has a few controversial things in it..
KURSK, BELGOROD, BRYANSK — IS PRESIDENT PUTIN PREPARING FOR ISTANBUL-II?
Posted by: james | Aug 26 2024 19:01 utc | 64
The west is slowly nibbling away at Russias weaknesses. At the same time, the defenses of Donbass are slowly giving way. But the West calculates that it will take months for Russia to succeed there and is willing to trade space for time.
Hudson has an interesting article. In it he suggests that the west has taken the measure of Putin and detect that he wants to negotiate. Hudson points out that Putins most recent recitation of Russian aims omitted denazification and demilitarization. The Kursk offensive and ongoing sniping at Russian infrastructure are aimed at Putin as a "weak link" in Russian resolve.
The article goes on to comment on Medvedevs comments that "Kursk means no negotiations are possible" as evidence of the solidification of 2 camps within Russia. Contrary to western analysis, the choice is not between Putin and a Peace Camp. The actual balance is between Putin as the moderate and a Total War camp.
Putin can easily shift his position, but will he ? Maybe just a few more "escalations" by Ukraine will do the trick or maybe western calculations are correct and they have succeeded in sussing out Russia's Putin vulnerability.
Posted by: danf51 | Aug 26 2024 19:02 utc | 65
fanto | Aug 26 2024 18:50 utc | 58--
Thanks for the plugging Dr. Hudson's efforts. Today, the bigger picture that includes Kursk's ATO and the SMO along with the Zionist's latest lies are included in "The New Western Crusade: Extremism" where "Western extremists aim to turn reality on its head."
As for the updated V-1, it will have as much effect on the strategic outcome of the ATO against NATO as its ancestor did during WW2--effectively none. At the time, the V-1 was called a Terror Weapon, and we've seen that the Ukie Nazis employ such weapons in the same manner.
@ Corruptionerruption | Aug 26 2024 18:58 utc | 63
ukraine '''defends itself''' lol... good joke buddy.. take big sugar daddy out of the equation and there is nothing, and i meant nothing..
Posted by: james | Aug 26 2024 19:12 utc | 67
@Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 26 2024 16:17 utc | 6
So… a repainted tomahawk with serial numbers removed.
I wonder if the Russians will be fooled?
What is the Ukrainian equivelent for "Sheep Dip XR" ? That would be great name for the new weapon.
Posted by: count-rumford | Aug 26 2024 19:31 utc | 68
68 - It would be like Kiev to slightly tweak a Western weapon, or even just repaint it, and pass it off as an indigenous product.
Posted by: Waldorf | Aug 26 2024 19:35 utc | 69
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 26 2024 18:48 utc | 57
Lot of speculation by your side.
By the way geraniums seems to be quite effective so, contrary to your opinion, they fly at the correct height.
Posted by: Mario | Aug 26 2024 19:35 utc | 70
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation released another comment on today’s waves of strikes in Ukraine, revealing the targets of the attack. The Russian military officially confirmed that the targets included both military and energy infrastructure facilities that provides for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.The targets of the strike included electrical substations in Kiev, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytsky, Dnepropetrovsk, Poltava, Mykolaiv, Kirovograd and Odessa regions.
Gas compressor stations in Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk and Kharkiv regions, which ensure the functioning of the gas transportation system of Ukraine, were also damaged.
In addition, the storage sites of aviation weapons transferred to Kiev by Western countries at airfields in the Kiev and Dnipropetrovsk regions were attacked.
All designated targets have been hit, as a result of power outages, railway transportation of weapons and ammunition to the line of contact has been disrupted, the Russian Ministry of Defense concluded.
Ukrainian sources are sharing more and more footage of the damage caused by Russian strikes throughout the country. Thus, more targets were clarified.
As a result of precision strikes in the Kiev region, Russian missiles struck the engine room on the dam of the Kiev water reservoir near the town of Vushgorod on the northern outskirts of the capital. A large fire broke out as a result of the attack. The Kiev HPP, a key element in the region’s energy system, was seriously damaged, which led to the shutdown of electricity generation at the facility.
More strikes destroyed industrial facilities used for production of aviation ammunition in the city of Kiev.
Several Ukrainian facilities came under attack in the village of Usatovo in the Odessa region. They include a large depot and the local large energy substation.
Railway infrastructure was heavily damaged in the border Sumy region.
In the Vinnytsya region, Russian forces struck Ukrgasvydobych facilities in the settlement of Bazilovshchina. As a result of the attack, a pumping station and 12 railway tanks with combustible substances caught fire.
At least eight missiles struck the large Stryi gas storage facility and the Dashava gas field in the Lviv region.
The large energy substation that came uner Russian strikes throughout the country include:
station in Usatovo in the Odessa region
Khmelnitskaya 330
Zhitomirskaya 330
Severnaya 330
Vinnytsya 750 and Bar 330
Trikhaty 330 in the Mykolaiv region
Pervomaiskaya 330 in the Dnepropetrovsk region
Kievskaya 750
Kremenchugskaya 330
Zapadnoukrainskaya 750.
Read another detailed overview of Russian strikes launched on August 26 HERE.
https://southfront.press/russian-defense-ministry-revealed-targets-of-massive-strikes/
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 26 2024 19:46 utc | 71
@70 Mario
It's not all speculation and I'd be very interested in knowing geranium success rate. One of their main uses is to deplete air defense missles so clearly the Russians understand that they can be targeted and shot down relatively easy.
But hey, underestimate your foes and disbelieve ideas that contradict your beliefs. It feels good but isn't a good way to fight.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 26 2024 19:51 utc | 72
I believe Russia understands the only way it can win this war is if the EU, beginning with Germany, cries "uncle" economically, but the latter's condition of vassalage vis a vis the US won't let it, not to mention Poland believes it particularly stands to gain by Germany's bankruptcy. Of course, the US itself planned precisely for all of this in advance, in the sense of killing two birds with one stone: the EU as an independent entity and economic competitor and Russia's isolation consequent to a war it is quite difficult to win without resorting to IDF methods and even then! However, what other options did Russia have lest Ukraine become a nuclear hedgehog on Russia's front lawn? But, as previously stated, though Putin's response was all but compelled by NATO, either way NATO will not relent, meaning Russia remains quite vulnerable to nuclear dirty bombs, bio warfare, and soi disant "jihadists."
Posted by: Ludovic | Aug 26 2024 19:54 utc | 73
Posted by: Ludovic | Aug 26 2024 19:54 utc | 73
>meaning Russia remains quite vulnerable to nuclear dirty bombs, bio warfare,
USA and EU are also vulnerable to those attacks as well as to regular nukes. Russia always has the option of escalating hard, such as by nuking Belgium or Germany, then let USA make next move. More risky would be to attempt to take out the entire British nuclear arsenal. However my guess is attack on satellites is the more likely escalation. If Russia warns China in advance, China can't complain too much that their satellites were collateral damage, because they were given the option of taking the heat off Russia by opening a new front with a blockade of Taiwan.
Posted by: anonposter | Aug 26 2024 20:02 utc | 74
So is it me or have the Uke Nazis now recreated the V2 rockets? Posted by: IcyReaper | Aug 26 2024 17:11 utc | 26
Its you. Nothing like it. The V2 was a ballistic missile, a forerunner of something like an Iskander.
Posted by: JohninMK | Aug 26 2024 20:04 utc | 75
It’s not called the V-1, by any chance?Posted by: Milites | Aug 26 2024 16:21 utc | 8
Is it powered by cocaine?
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Aug 26 2024 16:21 utc | 9
This 1-2 punch made my (otherwise bleak) day. Thanks.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Aug 26 2024 20:04 utc | 76
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 26 2024 19:51 utc | 72
There are not specifications released for the alleged new drone so your considerations are pure speculation.
About geraniums, even if it's used as a decoy, it's shurely effective.
Posted by: Mario | Aug 26 2024 20:05 utc | 77
clearly the Russians understand that they can be targeted and shot down relatively easy.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 26 2024 19:51 utc | 72
---
Easily, but not economically. When defending costs more than attacking the defender will eventually lose.
The West's arsenal is too expensive to be practical. We'll soon enough see where that high cost leads.
Posted by: too scents | Aug 26 2024 20:11 utc | 78
When russians start to destroy 750KV transformers is when the SMO start to be serious, it is not easy at all to build and install them, it takes many months if not years to build them, they are not "in the selves" in China waiting for an order in Amazon...they are monsters of 200 Tm and they are very specific of the old soviet "world", and they are taylor made for the power they transfer.
Good luck repairing them.
Posted by: Dave | Aug 26 2024 20:12 utc | 79
Fanto! I always looked out for your comments on Colonel Lang's site. Don't remember or failed to pick up any recent comments from you here, though there were a few a while back. Great to see you surfacing. Any insights into Scholz's part in the run-up to February 2022 would be appreciated. One of the least examined aspects of the whole affair.
Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 26 2024 20:20 utc | 80
Ukraine has no human capital to speak of; anyone vaguely competent has left the place long before the 2022 escalation. Zelenski exists in a perpetual haze of delusion and psychosis.
Posted by: Tré | Aug 26 2024 16:06 utc | 2
Yes .. but .. someone else probably in the west has given them a load of something or other and don’t want to admit it. The whole thing is degeneratin into bullshit.
The real danger with bullshit is not what everyone thinks, but that you start believing it yourself. Zelensky is in that category. It’s a miracle he’s not already a landowner.
Posted by: PalmaSailor | Aug 26 2024 20:33 utc | 81
Posted by: CalDre | Aug 26 2024 17:56 utc | 43
There is always StarShield and Musk doesn't get to say where it is used.
Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 26 2024 20:35 utc | 82
Posted by: too scents | Aug 26 2024 20:11 utc | 78 "The West's arsenal is too expensive to be practical."
Aren't the ATACMS they are getting a sunk cost?
Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 26 2024 20:37 utc | 83
"Posted by: anonposter | Aug 26 2024 20:02 utc | 74 "nuking Belgium or Germany, then let USA make next move"
France, UK or the US could be the ones that make the next move. A little more complicated than just the US.
Posted by: Ed4 | Aug 26 2024 20:40 utc | 84
When a kid, a (probably specious) tale was the cheap ink pens that said 'USA' on them were in fact from Usa, Japan. Arch enemy stuff; silly kids' stuff.
But this new missile has, of course, roots so deeply Western as to be imported. Why not skip its origin as it's coming into battle against Russia regardless of the details of its enemy origins.
It would, on the other hand, be good countervailing news that Russia's latest infrastructure and airport attack destroyed an F16 or two.
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Aug 26 2024 20:43 utc | 85
I'm calling fake.
1. Most engines discussed have low thrust and shitty economy
2. As other mentioned, a big part of a cruise missile is the brain and none is found in 404
So with something approaching the described thing, a cheap turbine and a booster to get it in the air.
We'd be talking about something in the 100/200 kgs and a small warhead for a shitty range
Are they going to send tomahawks and say it was this crap? Sure, but then RF could just nuke something and say it was just a cracker, equally plausible.
Now that I have searched a bit more, and I trust russian engineering 1000x more than ukraine's, 350 km with a 16 kg warhead.
More a decoy than a cruise missile.
https://ruavia.su/geranium-jet-drone-analogue-will-be-ready-in-the-first-half-of-2024/
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 26 2024 20:47 utc | 86
Good luck repairing them. Posted by: Dave | Aug 26 2024 20:12 utc | 79
Almost impossible, these are Soviet specification units. The strategy seems to be to isolate Ukraine from the EU's power networks so that neither can benefit from bidirectional power transfer. Ukraine's population is heading into a long very tough winter.
SA big problem is no electricity to power water pumps. This means that those living in blocks of flats are going to face lugging water up the stairs as no doubt the lifts will have stopped along with the empty water tanks in the roof. Cancel that gym subscription!!!
We will probably see sewage in the streets again as those pumps also stop.
The Western standard parts of Ukraine could become worse than the worst places in the third world as for the locals there it is their way of life, whilst in Ukraine it will be a new and painful experience revisiting the 'bad old days'.
An interesting aspect will be how the wealthy or those in the higher ranks adapt. Will they turn their standby generators on and risk their neighbours wanting to share? Civil unrest with the press gangs is bubbling along, no power could push it over the edge.
I can't see the massive US embassy having special water and sewage systems either. Time to dig some holes in their lawns.
Posted by: JohninMK | Aug 26 2024 20:50 utc | 87
So all we have is one pretty shonky PaintShopPro generated image of something that a schoolkid might doodle and a lot of marketing guff (aka propaganda). The sort of effort that might won a turner prize these days, but not a war.
I suspect the reason it is hard to detect is because it doesn't exist in physical form (Ghost of V1?) but will be cited as a 'NATO hands free' explanation to cover for the use of real NATO weapons launched into Russia.
Should have been named 'Schroedinger'.
Posted by: ChatNPC | Aug 26 2024 20:53 utc | 88
"Zelensky stressed that it is a weapon of a "completely new class". He emphasized that "it is difficult to counteract it, but very easy to understand why.""
Not everything Zelensky says is a lie. It is difficult to counteract because it can fly at treetop levels through unmapped terrain. This is easy to understand but radar can't detect it in time because being as low as possible cuts reaction time down too low.
Theoretically a tower with heavy caliber machine gun(s) a few hundred feet in the air would be the quickest way to see it and start applying fire. Radar and aa missles aren't designed for this type of attack.
The Ukrainians have a fault in their boastfulness and tend to brag too much, revealing info, as well as showing videos of their operations with their nice 4k cameras.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 26 2024 20:54 utc | 89
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Aug 26 2024 20:43 utc | 85
It would, on the other hand, be good countervailing news that Russia's latest infrastructure and airport attack destroyed an F16 or two.
I suspect many MIC types are hoping Russia hits ALL the F-16 on the ground before they can be shot down near the front. Far less embarrassing than a shot down flaming Lawn Dart.
Then the cheerleaders can claim "Well they would have been game changers if Russia did not destroy them all", "Russia was so scared of them they made sure they would never fly" and similar nonsense.
Posted by: saner | Aug 26 2024 20:55 utc | 90
Its ironic that the day after Elensky announces his "new missile", the Russians hit the whole of the country with the biggest wave of missiles since the smo started. Moreover, the was little if any air defence. Rather than showing off his new offensive weapon, shouldnt he have been doing something to bolster the defence of his cities?
Posted by: HERMIUS | Aug 26 2024 20:59 utc | 91
The AFU moves around Koronevo have been blocked again. And the DRG tactics rendered invalid after enough force saturation, and a lot of those initial DRGs who thrust past Koronevo to the north are cut-off and blocked.
Also:
#Russian defenders of #Kursk
fought in the encirclement and stopped the #Ukranian breakthrough in Malaya Lokna
For over a week, fighters from Regiment 1009 held back the advance of #NATO armored vehicles that were trying to break through deep into the Kursk region🔽
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 26 2024 21:02 utc | 92
#79
> When russians start to destroy 750KV transformers is when the SMO start to be serious
So, today?
Posted by: Mirko | Aug 26 2024 21:04 utc | 93
Theoretically a tower with heavy caliber machine gun(s) a few hundred feet in the air would be the quickest way to see it and start applying fire. Radar and aa missles aren't designed for this type of attack.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 26 2024 20:54 utc | 89
Some days/week ago, when I posted that they were turning yaks into drone killers I mentioned that it was a pity that RF didin't have a fixed wings gunshi. In safe air it would be the best drone killer I can think of.
Even the old AC-47 ("Puff, the Magic Dragon") could probably be a good fit (and I wouldn't be surprised to see a AC-130 gunships with some nice look-down radar over jordan soon)
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 26 2024 21:15 utc | 94
In total: 1,930 troops (2,500 with undercounting: 75,000 a month).Posted by: Roger | Aug 26 2024 17:55 utc | 42
The six reporting groups within UKR in the MOD report are separate from the report in the Kursk direction:
During the day, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than 400 servicemen and 27 armored vehicles, including: a tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, three armored personnel carriers and 21 armored fighting vehicles, as well as 5 artillery pieces, two mortars, 11 vehicles and a US-made AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery radar.
So the RF MOD is actually claiming they inflicted more than 2330 UKR casualties for 26 Aug
Posted by: Drifter | Aug 26 2024 21:39 utc | 95
Posted by: CalDre | Aug 26 2024 17:56 utc | 43
Here’s a Ukrainian comms-tech channel at least claiming Starlink doesn’t work for them in Kursk. Not sure what specific alternative solution he’s referring to.
https://t.me/serhii_flash/3720
Many people ask. I answer: Starlink does NOT work on the Kursk route. Unfortunately, in general. We feel difficulties in connection with this.Upd I closed the comments, because immediately everyone starts telling how to replace starlink, and this info is redundant :-)
Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 26 2024 21:40 utc | 96
Anyone know if Musk and Starlink have opened a back door to the Ukros (or themselves) to allow for covert interception/decryption of comms on the network?
If I was Russia, I wouldn't use Starlink even if it was available.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Aug 26 2024 21:44 utc | 97
Stories of captured AFU servicemen who were mostly kidnapped, trained for a few weeks.
Also notice even previous elite unites like 82nd airborne brigade are now populated with diseased/ill mobilized people.
Take a second to make it sink in - the elite special forces units are populated with recently mobilized people with 2 week training.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 26 2024 21:45 utc | 98
@97 Tom
I've seen a picture purporting to represent a starlink computer board with some cables to bypass the location chip to fake location data so the starlink can work anywhere.
Can't say if Musk helped with that, I don't think so it was probably child's play for the right people.
Thus was in combination with their cruise missle esque propeller drones(the predecessor to this new jet powered one)
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 26 2024 21:48 utc | 99
Seems like the war has taken a new phase
Phase: 1 was diplomatic. Putin and Lavrov I think thought (hoped) that NATO/US would see sense and agree to the security treaty. That ended in Feb 2022
Phase 2: Quick SMO and force Ukraine to capitulate and also protect Crimea. This only partially worked and probably thanks to Boris the Istanbul accords collapsed. It was a good gamble by Putin but did not work. Personally but with little hard evidence I think they were spooked by the Munich conference in choosing to fight NATO in Ukraine rather than Syria. They feared (probably with good evidence) that Ukraine was about to get nuclear weapons.It ended April 2022
Phase 3: Russian regrouping and rethinking. Generally this was a bit of a mess for Russia. As i say I think they acted (were forced to act) prematurely with the SMO. It saw withdrawals but it also say massive defence developed and also i assume that it also saw massive ramp up of military production, especially in precision missiles which I suspect were in very short supply in 2022. To answer the Putin shoulda, coulda, woulda brigade on here has it ever occurred to these noggins that Russia did not go all in in 2022 partly because they did not have the troops or weapons. they had weapons but not in sufficient numbers. this more or less ended with the capture of Bahkmut in May 2023.
Phase 4: Ukrainian failed offensive plus Russian advances began to turn the tide in the second half of 2023. Not dramatic but clearly evidence that Russia was back in the game. It seemed also that Russia had much bigger stocks of weapons and was much more ready to use them on a wider number of targets.The capture of Marinka on 25 December 2023 was the sign of the future.
Phase 5: Russia on the offensive. This has been very significant in Donetsk. However the relatively limited geographical location of the Russian offensive suggests to me that Russia continues to carefully limit use of high tech weapons (and troops) probably because they still have not enough and also because they fear NATO full on invasion. They are wise to fear this. Whatever the problems Russia has retaken more than 50 settlements in the first half of 2024.
Phase 6: Panicked response by Ukraine lead to attacks on Russia which led Russia to respond with the Kharkov offensive and to step up action in Donetsk. A further 15 or so settlements were captured in July/early August and this has continued throughout August, although significant problems have occurred in Kursk.
Phase 7: I think yesterday saw that Russia has finally decided on a full on response. Reluctant at first to destroy Ukraine, because until the actual invasion of Russia, there was still hope for a relatively friendly peace - a nation which might rebuild its links with Russia and become a prosperous and peaceful friendly neighbour. The next few months will tell all, but i predict that Ukraine will be completely crippled before winter. The population will need to migrate either west or East, if only to be able to stay warm and to eat. I think however that Russia will try NOT to damage heritage areas of Ukraine and will not target civilians.
Posted by: watcher | Aug 26 2024 21:50 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
By launching an offensive on the Kursk region, Ukraine has crossed not only Russian but also American “red lines” — Financial Times.
Washington considers the transfer of hostilities to Russian territory “dangerous” and is trying to prevent the outbreak of World War III, even if this requires cutting aid to Ukraine.
“But Ukraine is fighting for its existence. It would not refuse direct US intervention in the conflict with Russia,” the publication notes.
In a recently published book, David Sanger writes that Biden once made it clear to his aides that Zelensky may be deliberately trying to involve America in a global conflict.
The FT believes that Ukrainians may follow Israel’s example, using military methods without prior approval from the US, hoping that successful actions can be recognized by the States after the fact. And if the plans fail, the US will provide support in eliminating the consequences.
However, the US will most likely continue to carefully avoid a direct confrontation with Russia, fearing a nuclear escalation.
“The Americans doubt that the last “red line” has been successfully overcome. Biden’s advisers believe that if Putin feels that his regime is on the verge of collapse, Russia may use nuclear weapons.
And when the Ukrainians say that their allies are afraid of a complete victory, they are right in some way,” the FT concludes.
Posted by: grid5 | Aug 26 2024 16:03 utc | 1