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Britain Claims To Have Helped With The Ukrainian Invasion Of Russia
Yves Smith is discussing the Washington Post report on Russia-Ukraine negotiation to end the infrastructure attacks:
An Admission of Russian Long-Term Weakness or More Complex Calculation?
I had previously discussed the WaPo piece here.
Yves suggests that the negotiations, if they really have happened as described, were an Ukrainian ruse to distract Russia from the Ukrainian preparation of the Kursk oblast incursion. The talks were useless for Russia, she says. She doubts that Russia would favor to stop the attacks on the Ukrainian electricity generating and network capabilities. She suggests that the Ukrainian attacks on Russia create little damage. It disagree with that view.
The winter will already become very difficult for Ukrainian civilians. There is no need to increase the damage on Ukrainian infrastructure beyond the already achieved level.
The Ukrainian attacks have so far created repairable damage in Russia. But that may not be the case forever. One day one of such attacks could in fact create some real catastrophe. The attacks are also binding lots of Russian resources. One needs a huge number of soldiers and equipment to give at least some protection to the most exposed sites. The Russian economy is currently short on men. Not diverting some 100,000 men for local air defense purposes can make a difference.
I believe that Russia was genuinely interested in making such deal. But the Ukrainian attack on Kursk oblast blew it apart.
There are new suggestion on how the Ukrainian incursion into Russia was prepared for.
The Times in London claims that it largely followed a British plan (archived):
When footage of British Challenger 2 battle tanks being used by the Ukrainian army for its counterinvasion of Russia emerged on Tuesday, Downing Street and the Ministry of Defence were ready.
For the previous 48 hours, officials and political aides working for Sir Keir Starmer and John Healey, the defence secretary, had been in talks about how far to go to confirm growing British involvement in the incursion towards Kursk.
The stakes were high. Unseen by the world, British equipment, including drones, have played a central role in Ukraine’s new offensive and British personnel have been closely advising the Ukrainian military for two years, on a scale matched by no other country.
The U.S., in contrast, has claimed not to have known about the Ukrainian plans and there purpose. This leads Kit Klarenberg to develop a theory:
Kit Klarenberg @KitKlarenberg – 15:02 UTC · Aug 18, 2024
"🧵: I speculated earlier was probably Britain behind Kursk suicide op. Lo and behold, a Times article confirms this. More broadly, contents amply underline Kursk latest effort by London to keep the US in the proxy war – and it appears Washington has finally had enough of this.
Times reveals up top heavily promoted footage of British Challenger 2 tanks in Kursk was a conscious, deliberate decision made by new PM Keir Starmer and his defence secretary John Healey. British equipment is said to have "played a central role" in the "counterinvasion".
…
Starmer and Healey reportedly made the decision to advertise London's involvement "to be more open about Britain’s role in a bid to persuade key allies to do more to help." In other words, to encourage/pressure the US et al to double down on this unwinnable, nightmare quagmire.
…
However, US reportedly unhappy with Kursk incursion, because it scuppered peace talks. Kiev's purported culpability for Nord Stream bombing is, it seems, being used to justify ending German aid to Ukraine. And the US is blocking Kiev from firing British-made missiles at Russia.
Kit's theory is that the Washington Post story about the blown negotiations as well as the latest "Nord Stream done by Ukraine" rumor reporting by the WSJ are expressions of U.S. anger over the Ukrainian government and its Kursk invasion.
The Times also reports that Britain is pushing its allies to provide more weapons and to allow their use against targets deep inside of Russia:
In the coming weeks Healey will attend a new meeting of the Ukraine Defence Co-ordination Group, where Britain will press European allies to send more equipment and give Kyiv more leeway to use them in Russia. Healey spoke last week to Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, and has been wooing Boris Pistorius, his German opposite number.
Germany, whose Taurus missiles have a similar 155-mile range to Storm Shadow but a more powerful warhead, has been the country under the most pressure to move. However, it was revealed yesterday that Germany has actually frozen military aid to Ukraine because of a domestic budgetary crisis. Pistorius had asked for £3.4 billion of additional supplies but that was rejected by the finance ministry.
A previous leak provided that the long range Taurus missiles are complicate and have to be programmed just-in-time by German officers. There is no support in Germany for allowing such a deep involvement in attacks on Russia.
To me it seems that Britain has promised to Ukraine that it would get its allies to agree to the usage of longer range weapons against Russia in exchange for Ukraine to launch the attack on Russia.
Only that can explain this Zelenski complain about Starmer:
The Ukrainian president complained that British aid to Kyiv had begun to wane as his forces continued their unprecedented incursion into Russian territory in the Kursk region.
“Unfortunately, the situation has slowed down recently,” Mr Zelensky said, referring to UK military assistance.
Sir Keir has upheld a Conservative ban on using UK-made Storm Shadows to strike targets deep inside Russia, amid concerns it could lead to escalation with nuclear-armed Moscow.
“We will discuss how to fix this because long-range capabilities are vital for us. The whole world sees how effective Ukrainians are – how our entire nation defends its independence,” said Mr Zelensky.
It came as four former Conservative defence secretaries called on No 10 to do more to support Ukraine, with some demanding Kyiv be allowed to use Storm Shadows in the Russian offensive.
But it is not Starmer who is blocking the missiles, it is the U.S. of A. (archived):
Washington is in effect blocking Britain from allowing Kyiv to fire Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia, amid fears in the Biden administration of an escalation in the Ukraine war.
…
It is understood that although the UK wants to give Ukraine the freedom to do what they want with the long-range weapon, it requires consensus from allies, including the US, France and a third undisclosed Nato country. A government source stressed that the UK was not blaming the US for any delay, adding that such policy changes took time.
Combining all the above one can (re-)construct this story.
Britain, in a bipartisan move, wants to prolong the war in Ukraine. It suggested to and helped Ukraine to invade Russia even as it knew that this would interrupt peace talks in Qatar. It also promised to press its allies for long range attack permission against Russia. But the U.S. and Germany are still blocking such attacks. Zelensky now complains that Britain failed to deliver on its promise.
The U.S., miffed about the British involvement in a likely useless Ukrainian attack on Russia, is leaking about the Ukrainian/Russian negotiations in Qatar.
The above is largely based on the U.S. claims that it was not really involved in the planing of the Kursk incursion.
There are of course good reason to doubt those claims:
As the Ukraine war enters its most perilous phase, with Kiev’s forces fighting inside Russia, the United States is operating a formal “sensitive activities” detachment that is active in providing direct military support to the beleaguered country. The detachment, never before disclosed, is run by U.S. special operations forces, and with its Ukrainian counterparts, provides on-the-battlefield support, including near-real time targeting intelligence, operators say.
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An operator formerly deployed to the Army’s 10th Special Forces Group assigned to a sensitive activities detachment told me their work included the creation of clandestine human networks for intelligence gathering, as well as identifying Russian military weaknesses for targeting.
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A second operator also described having been tasked with providing near up-to-the-minute intelligence support to Ukrainian forces.
Those U.S. operators in Ukraine certainly did not miss the preparations the Ukrainians were making for their attack.
P.S. Bonus from The Times piece:
“It’s not just about the military support, but it’s about the industrial, economic, and diplomatic support,” the defence source said. “If Putin succeeds in Ukraine he’s not going to stop there. But also the economic implications of that are massive, because we all saw how heavily Britain got hit when he first invaded.”
Yes, the sanctions, intended to hurt Russia, were quite damaging to those who issued them. Nice to see that finally acknowledged.
They posted the CTO/invasion report first today.
20.08.2024 (14:20)
Russian Defence Ministry report on repelling an invasion attempt of the AFU on the territory of the Russian Federation (20 August 2024)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to repel the AFU attempt to invade the territory of the Russian Federation.
Units of the Sever Group of Forces supported by Army Aviation and artillery thwarted the attempts of the enemy’s assault detachments to launch attacks near Borki, Korenevo, Kremyanoye, and Russkaya Kanapelka.
The AFU losses amounted to more than 60 troops killed and wounded, two tanks, eight armoured fighting vehicles, and six motor vehicles.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue reconnaissance and search operations to locate and eliminate the enemy’s small sabotage and reconnaissance groups in forest belts attempting to get to the depth of the Russian territory.
Army Aviation and artillery strikes and actions of defending troops inflicted losses on manpower and hardware clusters of the AFU 22nd, 115th mechanised brigades, 80th, and 82nd air assault brigades near Apanasovka, Borki, Viktorovka, Kositsa, Lyubimovka, Plekhovo, Tolsty Lug, and west of Bogdanovka.
Operational-Tactical Aviation delivered strikes at manpower and hardware concentration areas of reserves of the AFU 61st Mechanised Brigade, 101st, 103rd, 106th, and 129th territorial defence brigades near Aleksandriya, Belopolye, Volnaya Sloboda, Vorozhba, Loknya, Mogritsa, and Khoten.
Over the past 24 hours, the AFU losses have amounted to up to 350 troops and 25 units of hardware, including four tanks, one infantry fighting vehicle, two armoured personnel carriers, 18 armoured fighting vehicles, as well as eight motor vehicles, two mortars, and one electronic warfare station.
Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses have amounted to more than 4,130 troops, 58 tanks, 27 infantry fighting vehicles, 50 armoured personnel carriers, 299 armoured fighting vehicles, 131 motor vehicles, 27 artillery guns, five SAM launchers, seven MLRS launchers, including three of HIMARS system and one of MLRS system, six electronic warfare stations, four units of engineering vehicles, including two counterobstacle vehicles and one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle.
The operation to neutralise the AFU units is in progress.
Posted by: Rhymerez | Aug 20 2024 12:15 utc | 263
Over the past 24 hours, the AFU losses have amounted to up to 350 troops and 25 units of hardware, including four tanks, one infantry fighting vehicle, two armoured personnel carriers, 18 armoured fighting vehicles, as well as eight motor vehicles, two mortars, and one electronic warfare station.
Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses have amounted to more than 4,130 troops, 58 tanks, 27 infantry fighting vehicles, 50 armoured personnel carriers, 299 armoured fighting vehicles, 131 motor vehicles, 27 artillery guns, five SAM launchers, seven MLRS launchers, including three of HIMARS system and one of MLRS system, six electronic warfare stations, four units of engineering vehicles, including two counterobstacle vehicles and one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle.
The operation to neutralise the AFU units is in progress.
Posted by: Rhymerez | Aug 20 2024 12:15 utc | 271
Interesting that casualty numbers are increasing in Kursk.
Early we were on the 280 per day, lately 340 a 20% increase.
And a total number so far of 4.130… If that is KIA then another 4.130 permanently injured and let’s say half of recoverable injured also needing a week or two of hospital stay, 8.230 out of 16.460 …
A grand total of almost 16.500 out of order , half of those permanently.
No unit can operate normally with more than 50% casualties ( some put a limit at 30%)
SO I would say that 30.000-50.000 in the Sumy/Kursk theater seem about right. (including 20.000 needed to hold the lines)
When there are no more significant assaults might be the moment where we can put a top on this number. Right now as you posted “Units of the Sever Group of Forces supported by Army Aviation and artillery thwarted the attempts of the enemy’s assault detachments to launch attacks near Borki, Korenevo, Kremyanoye, and Russkaya Kanapelka.” So we’re not there yet.
My 2 cents
The Russian Foreign Ministry protested to the US Charge d’Affaires in Russia Stephanie Holmes over an illegal entry of American reporters into the Kursk Region, the Russian Foreign Ministry said.
“The US Charge d’Affaires to Russia Holmes was summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry on August 20 and was issued a strong protest in connection with the provocative actions of American reporters, who illegally entered the Kursk Region for propaganda coverage of the Kiev regime’s crimes, as well as the emerging evidence of the participation of an American PMC on the side of Ukrainian forces during their invasion of the territory of the Russian Federation,” the ministry said on Telegram.
“It was underscored that such actions, which run counter to the assertions of [US President] Joe Biden’s administration that it allegedly has nothing to do with the attack on Russia by Ukrainian neo-Nazis, clearly prove the involvement of the US, as a direct participant in the conflict, in [Ukrainian President Vladimir] Zelensky’s malicious conspiracies,” the ministry said.
According to the ministry, Russian agencies will conduct investigative activities to bring to justice the American journalists that entered the Kursk region.
“It was stressed that with regard to the American nationals involved in these crimes, in accordance with the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, the competent agencies will carry out the necessary investigative activities to bring them to justice. In addition, it was made clear that all foreign ‘specialists’ and mercenaries that illegally cross the border of our country automatically become a legitimate military target for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation,” the ministry stated.
P.S. On another front (diplomatic)
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 20 2024 14:02 utc | 281
20.08.2024 (13:05)
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (20 August 2024)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
In Volchansk and Liptsy directions, units of the Sever Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of the AFU 22nd Mechanised Brigade, 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade, and 17th Tank Brigade near Zolochev (Kharkov region), Mogritsa and Lugovka (Sumy region).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 105 troops, one tank, six motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, one 152-mm D-20 gun, one 122-mm 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, one 122-mm D-30 howitzer, and one Grad MLRS combat vehicle.
The Zapad Group of Forces captured more advantageous lines and inflicted losses on the 115th, 116th mechanised brigades, and 3rd Assault Brigade of the AFU near Kopanki (Kharkov region), Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic) and Novosadovoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU suffered losses as follows: more than 450 troops, 11 motor vehicles, two U.S.-made 155-mm M198 and 155-mm M777 howitzers, one UK-made 155-mm FH-70 howitzer, one 122-mm D-30 howitzer, and one U.S.-made 105-mm M119 gun.
The units of the Yug Group of Forces improved the situation along the front line, defeated manpower and hardware of the 23rd Mechanised Brigade, 79th Air Assault Brigade, and 81st Airmobile Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Katerinovka, Konstantinovka, and Serebryanka (Donetsk People’s Republic). Two AFU counter-attacks were repelled.
The AFU lost in total more than 680 troops, four motor vehicles, two U.S.-manufactured 155-mm M777 and 155-mm M198 howitzers, one 152-mm Msta-B gun, one 152-mm 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, one 122-mm 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, one 122-mm D-30 howitzer, two 152-mm D-20 howitzers, one 122-mm Grad MLRS combat vehicle, one Croatian-made 2S1-12 RAK-SA rocket launch vehicle, and one U.S.-made 105-mm M119 howitzer. Four ammunition depots were eliminated.
As a result of active operations by the Tsentr Group of Forces units, a large group of the enemy troops was defeated and one of the largest settlements of the Toretsk agglomeration and a strategically important logistics centre of Novgorodskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic) were liberated.
The 25th Air Assault Brigade, the 100th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU and the 120th Territorial Defence Brigade have been hit near Toretsk and Kalinovo (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to more than 585 troops, three tanks, two motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, two 152-mm D-20 howitzers, and three 122-mm D-30 howitzers.
The Vostok Group of Forces’ units captured more favourable lines and inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of the AFU 58th Mechanised Brigade and 104th Territorial Defence Brigade near Prechistovka and Shakhtyorskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses included up to 110 troops, one tank, three motor vehicles, one Polish-made 155-mm Krab self-propelled artillery system, and one French-made 155-mm Caesar howitzer.
The Dnepr Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of the AFU 31st and 118th mechanised brigades close to Novodanilovka and Pyatikhatki (Zaporozhye region).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 75 troops and one 152-mm D-20 howitzer.
Operational-Tactical Aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, and Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have engaged AFU manpower and hardware clusters in 133 areas during the day.
Air defence systems have downed: one French-made Hammer guided aerial bomb, ten U.S.-made HIMARS MLRS projectiles, 31 unmanned aerial vehicles, five of them beyond the special military operation zone.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 639 aircraft, 282 helicopters, 30,192 unmanned aerial vehicles, 575 anti-aircraft missile systems, 17,345 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,415 MLRS combat vehicles, 13,444 field artillery guns and mortars, and 24,945 units of support military vehicles have been neutralised.
Posted by: Rhymerez | Aug 20 2024 15:15 utc | 295
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