News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
Back to Main
July 31, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-181
Comments
Some random news
Apparently the canal was breached in Chasov Yar (tunnels and pipes again) and the fight is already in the micro district.
It’s been some weeks that I have mentioned that I’m seeing “tendrils”, advances that flow wherever there is a breech. Soon even more logistic lines of the AFU will be compromised.
Slightly OT, the EU seems furious at Hungary (again) this time for allowing RF citizens into Schengen.
Posted by: Newbie | Jul 31 2024 15:15 utc | 1
Pro-tip to barflies: Skip over comments by barfleas.
Posted by: despondent | Jul 31 2024 15:18 utc | 2
Simplicius has a recent article citing that the Brussel’s hallways are admitting to Ukraine defeat, not for attribution. He also cites Die Welt with a reversal in its assessment of the outcome.
The ceasefire talk is pushed by the Ukies and the West, not Russia.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 31 2024 15:57 utc | 3
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 31 2024 15:57 utc | 3
The western blob is probably continuously keeping the narrative of ‘peace talks’ up because there’s a chance some peace talk will eventually happen. They have been doing that since the start of this year at least. They just aren’t sure when, but by keeping up that in the headlines they think they can maintain the narrative that they are in charge. So they will keep the peace talk narrative up for the next 12 months too, if need be.
This is obviously very infantile. What actually could be going on is there are two ‘peace talks’. The real peace talk is between US and Russia intelligence heads like Naryshkin and Burns, who make the real conditions. The other peace talks are the ‘Zelensky peace formula’ BS, purely made up for western public consumption to keep the sheep deep in sleep.
This is speculation but a plausible scenario. Russia should simply deny the west their ‘public’ peace talk narrative and simply state the conditions as is behind the scenes, from the actual peace talk. If it is going on (it probably is).
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 31 2024 16:19 utc | 4
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-73124-die-welt-reveals-dire
This week brings us another new batch of damning articles from the pro-Ukrainian Western media. The most telling of these comes from German Die Welt, which exposes how nearly all NATO ‘insiders’ secretly whisper among themselves that Ukraine stands no chance, but they dare not say so in public
Posted by: guest | Jul 31 2024 16:29 utc | 5
So they will keep the peace talk narrative up for the next 12 months too, if need be.
Russia should simply deny the west their ‘public’ peace talk narrative and simply state the conditions as is behind the scenes, from the actual peace talk. If it is going on (it probably is).
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 31 2024 16:19 utc | 4
I sincerely hope that your 12 months special is telescope to a far shorter timeliness.
Everyone with a semblance of reality does.
And your second point is going to be the expectation for the Russians.
Nato better deal with it.
Posted by: jpc | Jul 31 2024 16:38 utc | 6
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/07/in-related-news.html#comment-6516681910
Rogozin:
Our response to the Western INF Treaty: The War of the Machines is getting ready to start
Russia is developing the Iskander-1000. We are talking about a new ballistic missile for the Iskander-M OTRK with a flight range of 1000 km and a probable deviation coefficient from the target of 5 meters. It will also have a more powerful warhead in conventional equipment.
It is reported that the Iskander-1000 is structurally similar to the 9M723 ballistic missile for the Iskander OTRK. Let me remind you that this missile also has a special warhead with a variable capacity of 5 or 50 kilotons of TNT.
So 50 kilotons can fly not 500 km, as now, but 1000 km. Or even further, because a nuclear warhead is lighter than a conventional one.
And if you take the Iskander-K OTRK with the 9M729 cruise missile, then it has a flight range of 2000 km with a conventional warhead and 2350 km with a special one.
By the way, the enemy paid attention to one important detail. The Bastion coastal missile system uses a standard caliber 3S14 universal launcher to launch 3M55 Oniks (350-450 km) and Oniks-M (up to 800 km) missiles.
And it is suitable for launching the 3M22 Zircon hypersonic cruise missile (1000-1500 km) and the sea-based Kalibr-NK cruise missile (1500-2500 km). By the way, Ukrainian sources write that Russia is currently producing 10 3M22 Zircon missiles per month.
Our enemies have already begun to discuss our possible symmetrical response to the deployment of ground-based intermediate- and shorter-range missiles by the United States and Europe. They are worried. But the deployment plans are not going to be cancelled.
Correctly noted by Senator Dmitry Rogozin: “The Americans must understand the following: the closer they place their strike missile weapons to our borders, the more urgent the need becomes to transfer our strategic missile defense system from automated to automatic mode. We simply will not be given a chance to use the human factor of double-checking data by early warning systems operators and the reaction of the Strategic Missile Forces to a platoon of both an interception system and a massive retaliatory strike, and it will be carried out according to the flight mission laid down for NATO military targets not only in Europe, but also on the continental part US territory. Not in manual mode, I emphasize, but in automatic mode. The machine will decide; the Americans will not leave a chance for a person to react. I won’t scare you about what this will lead to. There will be no one to scare.”
A mirror situation is also emerging with China in connection with the deployment by the Americans of their INF Treaty in the Philippines and further in Japan and South Korea. There will be no more time for a person to make a decision.
t.me/rogozin_do/6205
Posted by: larchpost | Jul 31 2024 16:46 utc | 7
Peace talk news are a trick. They’re meant for nato readers, to see nato is trying but evil Putin does not want to. Talking about news, I liked the news that Zeli created a law to not pay external debt
Posted by: rk | Jul 31 2024 16:53 utc | 8
A post on X states (MoA does not allow me to post links):
“On the Olenya military airfield, in Murmansk, Russia, two Tu-22M3 strategic bombers were damaged
A 🇺🇦 UAV flew across the entire length of Russia, 1800 km, did not trigger air defense & exploded on the airplanes – setting a record for flight distance for an attack.”
Anyone have any more information on that?
Posted by: Perimetr | Jul 31 2024 16:58 utc | 9
Posted by: Perimetr | Jul 31 2024 16:58 utc | 9
Yes, or no. They literally invented this attack. Maybe there was a drone strike attempt but the strike isn’t visible on satellite picture.
🇺🇦 🇷🇺Previously, we had reported that the Ukrainian armed forces had alleged that they had damaged a TU-22.
In an embarrassment to the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine, Radio Liberty has refuted the claim that the Tu-22 was damaged at the airfield in the Murmansk region.
“A high-resolution satellite image for July 27 shows no visible traces of a Ukrainian strike on the Olenya strategic aviation base in the Murmansk region,” writes CIA Radio Liberty.
GUR representative Andrei “Piglet” Yusov stated about the fictitious drone attack on the night of July 27: “… we can confirm the fact of the defeat and damage of the strategic bomber. And this is truly an Olympic achievement.” Such a blow is important, since the Russian military-industrial complex does not yet have the ability to produce such new equipment.
Previously, Ukrainian resources, based on low-quality images, suggested that the Tu-22M3 aircraft was damaged during the impact.
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/59269
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 31 2024 17:12 utc | 10
According to STV news – which is ran by ITV, there are more than 27,000 Ukrainians now living in Scotland – one has to wonder do these people support the vile Neo-Nazi regime that controls their country?
I’m stating this because the English Home Office, is quick to vet those with brown skins that come to the UK from regions with conflict on the go.
Of course the brown skinned people who managed to reach Scotland – didn’t have their own Minister that the Ukrainians had in Neil Gray – now Health Minister – God help us all
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jul 31 2024 17:30 utc | 11
Posted by: Milites | Jul 31 2024 14:24 utc | 252
>I’m not being dismissive but, as I said in my second paragraph, show me a war and I’ll show you a similar list of grievances, some legitimate, some not,
Advice to young officers: “As long as you hear the troops bitching, everything is okay. It’s when they stop bitching that you need to investigate.”
Posted by: anonposter | Jul 31 2024 17:38 utc | 12
Uke fascist lady killed
RT gives a grotesque peek into the hatred and rot that’s eating up Ukraine.
“Last weekend, Irina Farion, a notorious Ukrainian far-right politician and academic was shot in the head by an unidentified assassin not far from her house in the western city of Lviv. She died some time later in hospital.”
https://www.rt.com/russia/601596-irina-farion-promoted-hatred-ukraine/
more on her in wiki:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iryna_Farion
I’m re-posting the link to Pascal Lottaz interviewing a Ukrainian journalist who’s now in Finland (but still in danger).
“The lie that Ukraine is defending democracy or standing up for “western values” has never been weaker. But now we are getting reports that not just journalistic publications critical of the Kiev-Regime are getting purged, ANYONE who dares to utter opinions not in line with the regime is getting persecuted, even for private conversations. Society is under total surveillance.
I’m talking to Vasyl Muravytskyi, a Ukrainian journalist who has been publishing highly critical reports about his government before and after the Euromaidan events back in 2014, for which he got in a lot of trouble. On 1 August 2017, he was arrested by Ukrainian law enforcement charged with high treason and spent 11 months in prison.
Vasyl now lives in Finland from where he is talking to us, assisted by a translator to help with the English.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo7OyrXLms4
Posted by: migueljose | Jul 31 2024 17:40 utc | 13
Why fight (losing) battles when you can simply report victories?
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 31 2024 17:40 utc | 14
F-16s are now in Ukraine. What’s the over/under on the first shoot down?
Posted by: Always_Z | Jul 31 2024 17:53 utc | 15
Further to previous discussion of shotgun ammo for counter-FPV work:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lM05lX89i4
Testing of Russia’s first “Intercept” cartridges against drones
The Russian company Tekhkrim presented new “Interception” cartridges designed to intercept drones. The tests were shown by journalist Alexander Rogatkin. Anti-drone cartridge 12/70 caliber, has 6 lead segments connected by Kevlar thread, the cartridge device is on the screen.
When firing this cartridge, a strong Kevlar thread is revealed, which, when it hits a target, instantly gets tangled in the drone and disables it. The maximum diameter of the opened net of the Intercept cartridge is one meter; the net opens completely at a distance of 15-20 meters from the barrel cut.
This solution will be especially effective against FPV drones, which have begun to attack infantry. According to the manufacturer, the effective firing range of the cartridge is up to 100 meters.
New ammunition will increase the effectiveness of the fight against small UAVs
Special cartridges for fighting drones — 12/70 “Intercept” and 12/76 CS – were sent to the zone of the SVO. They are used for shooting smoothbore rifles. The first cartridge received an original design — its striking elements are connected by a Kevlar thread. A special ring is used in the construction of the second one. These structural elements increase the destructive power and accuracy of ammunition. Experts note that on the front line, our fighters are already shooting down drones from rifles with conventional hunting ammunition and special drones should significantly increase the effectiveness of this method of combating UAVs.
Kevlar Web
Anti—drone cartridges – 12/70 “Intercept” and 12/76 KS developed by CJSC Techkrim — were sent from Izhevsk for testing to the zone of a special military operation. The ammunition is designed for firing 12-gauge smoothbore rifles — the most common hunting rifles in Russia. Among them are the well-known multi-shot models “Saiga-12”, “Boar-12”, MP-155. As well as fractured, single—barreled and double-barreled – MR-18, MR-27, MR-43, TO3-34 and others.
— We have already shipped the first batches of cartridges to the SVO zone, — Oleg Kuzmenko, director of CJSC Techkrim, told Izvestia.
The Intercept cartridge is equipped with six lead segments, which are interconnected by a Kevlar thread.
…
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 31 2024 17:56 utc | 16
Yes, or no. They literally invented this attack. Maybe there was a drone strike attempt but the strike isn’t visible on satellite picture.
🇺🇦 🇷🇺Previously, we had reported that the Ukrainian armed forces had alleged that they had damaged a TU-22.
In an embarrassment to the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine, Radio Liberty has refuted the claim that the Tu-22 was damaged at the airfield in the Murmansk region.
“A high-resolution satellite image for July 27 shows no visible traces of a Ukrainian strike on the Olenya strategic aviation base in the Murmansk region,” writes CIA Radio Liberty.
GUR representative Andrei “Piglet” Yusov stated about the fictitious drone attack on the night of July 27: “… we can confirm the fact of the defeat and damage of the strategic bomber. And this is truly an Olympic achievement.” Such a blow is important, since the Russian military-industrial complex does not yet have the ability to produce such new equipment.
Previously, Ukrainian resources, based on low-quality images, suggested that the Tu-22M3 aircraft was damaged during the impact.
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/59269
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 31 2024 17:12 utc | 10
Had already read about that “non event” but just to put some ideas out…
It would be twice the range of a Cessna 172
It would be doable only by overflight of poland, the baltic states and finland (forget about a drone passing all detection on Belarus and/or Russia proper)
So that would place most of late nato joiners as co-beligerants
Or a sneak attack from Finland or Norway that would have have hell to pay
Posted by: Newbie | Jul 31 2024 17:57 utc | 17
I have severe doubts about the purported Murmansk attack, simply because there’s not a peep about it in the Western MSM that I can find.
If it had happened I’m sure they’d be all over it, giving a full Mighty Wurlitzer serenade about “heroic Ukrainian actions, taking it to Russia” etc. etc.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 31 2024 18:06 utc | 18
From: https://voenhronika.ru/ via Translate Web Pages.
South-Donetsk direction. The Russian army is crushing the enemy on several sections of the Ugledar-Konstantinovka highway at once – the exit to it will disrupt part of the enemy’s logistics. VKS work on the industrial zone of the Yuzhnodonbaskaya mine, and artillery on the positions of the 120th Tro brigade in Vodiane. Our advanced technologies assault units entered the southern outskirts of Konstantinovka, and taking into account the battles for Novomikhailovka, you should not expect an easy walk.
On the Vremyevsky site fighters from Buryatia expand the control zone around Urozhaynoye. From the north the enemy pulls up reserves and mines the area around Makarovka.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 31 2024 18:16 utc | 19
Also from that site:
Enemy channels write that this night was the most massive Geranium attack since the beginning of 2024. More than 30 “Geraniums” entered the city. The air alert lasted 7 hours, but apart from one short video, there is no confirmation of massive damage yet. It is known that the strike was inflicted in particular on the base of foreign mercenaries in the capital’s Boryspil airport.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 31 2024 18:19 utc | 20
@Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 31 2024 18:06 utc | 18
And pay attention to words in troll’s text. The record breaking event actually took place, but somewhere else and something else was hit. RF hit a Ukro (read Dudaplane) Mig from 213km. And that isn’t even close to max range, it’s 300 to 400km
Posted by: rk | Jul 31 2024 18:38 utc | 21
“To the last Ukrainian”
A guy on telegram is making a countdown, predicting the day of the last Ukrainian soldier. Currently April 22, 2025.
Posted by: Passerby | Jul 31 2024 18:44 utc | 22
Interesting improvised FPV warhead made from repurposed UR-77 de-mining linear charge (DKRP-4), detonated by a UDZ grenade fuze in what seems to be a purely mechanical setup rather than electronically.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55dS03EgHSY
UR-77 Ammunition for Russian Drones, Use in Ukraine
The Russian army has started using new ammunition for FPV drones in Ukraine. They can be called new conditionally, since they are homemade and created from sections of a hose with a powder charge used in the UR-77 Meteorite mine clearing units, also known as the “Snake Gorynych”. Details in the video.
https://cat-uxo.com/explosive-hazards/misc/dkpr-4-demolition-charge
… The DKRP-4 clearing line-charges contain 8kg of PVV-7 Plastic-Explosive (PE) per linear meter, the total length of the clearing line-charges is about 114m, resulting in an explosive weight exceeding 900kg per UR-83P. …
https://cat-uxo.com/explosive-hazards/grenades/rgo-hand-grenade
… The UDZ (УДЗ) fuze has both impact and time delay functions, the impact fuze arms after a pyrotechnic delay of 1 to 1.8 seconds.
If the grenade strikes an object after this time a spherical lead shot filled impact weight will trigger detonation.
If the grenade has not struck anything after 3.5 to 4 seconds the second pyrotechnic delay will detonate the grenade. …
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 31 2024 18:48 utc | 23
Found the link for my post #21 lenta.ru/news/2024/07/29/rossiyskiy-su-35s-sbil-ukrainskiy-mig-29-na-rekordnom-rasstoyanii/
Posted by: rk | Jul 31 2024 19:01 utc | 24
I still think Russia will retain air superiority over Ukrainian skies.
“The first batch of US-made F-16 fighter jets has arrived in Ukraine, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday. The number of warplanes is “small,” sources told the outlet on condition of anonymity. Kiev has yet to comment on the reported delivery.
The origin of the aircraft is not yet clear. Last year, a group of NATO states, including Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Canada, Luxembourg, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, and Sweden, formed the so-called ‘F-16 coalition’. Greece, the US, Bulgaria, and France later joined.
While some countries, including the Netherlands and Denmark, pledged to provide Kiev with 24 and 19 aircraft respectively from their own stocks, others committed to training Ukrainian pilots.
Norway has also recently stated that it would donate six fighter jets to Kiev.”
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jul 31 2024 19:11 utc | 25
One wonders what this “new” strategy will entail – for as of now throwing money and weapons at Ukraine hasn’t been a winning formula.
“NATO is developing a new strategy to deal with Russia, US Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs James O’Brien announced on Tuesday during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing.
O’Brien told the meeting that the US “wants Ukraine to win” and is providing all the materials necessary. He also claimed the “platform” of support for Kiev has strengthened, because the EU has already begun membership negotiations with Ukraine, which O’Brien said will encourage reform within the country.
He recalled that the G7 members have agreed to give Kiev the earnings from Russia’s frozen sovereign assets, delivering an anticipated $50 billion this year to spend on defense. The third aspect, O’Brien claimed, is that NATO has said that it would welcome Ukraine into its ranks once Kiev takes the necessary steps towards membership.
Making sure Kiev can “win the war” is “the fastest way to peace” O’Brien suggested, adding that Ukraine has already been seen “making some progress on the battlefield.”
“We have, at the same time, strengthened our platform, in particular NATO,” the US official said, adding that the Washington-led bloc is “going to be developing a new strategy toward Russia over the next months” that will aim to “hold our allies together” in future dealings with Moscow.
O’Brien also noted that “all the NATO allies agreeing that [China] is the decisive enabler of Russia’s war” would be a “significant step towards improving the platform that we have.””
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jul 31 2024 19:22 utc | 26
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 31 2024 17:56 utc | 16
A Kevlar net probably works well. Better than nothing. The weak link is spotting drones, and grabbing the shot gun at the right moment.
Bet this is the hardest thing to solve, how to protect soldiers from these drones. The soldiers probably spend most of their time on lookout for these drones, and most combat time involves fighting, evading and detecting small drones.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 31 2024 19:25 utc | 27
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jul 31 2024 19:22 utc | 26
Following Martyanov’s methods, it’s wise to always look at these peoples back grounds. James O’Brien is an attorney and diplomatic advisor with an MA law degree from Yale university. He was the US advisor in Balkans in the 1990s.
This guy has absolutely no clue what he’s talking about when he thinks Ukraine can ‘beat Russia’. He knows nothing about warfare. James O’Brien is just repeating the Uniparty party line with no understanding of anything.
His ‘new strategy’ is basically the same one as the old strategy, fighting to the last Ukrainian. And both strategies have significantly deteriorated over time.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 31 2024 19:31 utc | 28
others committed to training Ukrainian pilots.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jul 31 2024 19:11 utc | 25
RO announced they’ve trained 50 pilots in 6 months, but only 3 passed the tests. I don’t think that is a problem, for example landing skills are not needed for Ukro pilots
Posted by: rk | Jul 31 2024 19:46 utc | 29
@ Perimetr | Jul 31 2024 16:58 utc | 9
When providing quotes like this, please do at least name the source. Saying “a post on X” doesn’t mean any more than “somebody somewhere said a thing”. Propagandists love promoting made up narratives this way, in the bar too. I don’t think you are one, still naming a source to track would help clear misunderstandings.
Posted by: boneless | Jul 31 2024 20:08 utc | 30
Anti-drone cartridge 12/70 caliber, has 6 lead segments connected by Kevlar thread, the cartridge device is on the screen.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 31 2024 17:56 utc | 1621st century chain shot.
What took them so long?
Posted by: ChatNPC | Jul 31 2024 20:14 utc | 31
Now we have the firstly claimed REAL power ongoing on fields towards West.
But that few sqm gains over all current western targets ops by Russians won’t clarify the fact that Blinken is s next to be “eliminated by a Sniper” or by missile attack on Washing-toDo-DC ??
High, Killary Clinton, Bush-0911
Jemen + Syria + Turkey + Saudis etc. plus China.Palistan, Russia not forgotten.
Wake up.
Israel + Ukrania people still suffering the same fate.
Solution: Kill as many as can, commanders on both sides??
No 1st kill muddy Methanyahoo ..
That’s all guys have to perform asap.
!!
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Jul 31 2024 20:23 utc | 32
re: boneless | Jul 31 2024 20:08 utc | 30
“When providing quotes like this, please do at least name the source. Saying “a post on X” doesn’t mean any more than “somebody somewhere said a thing”. Propagandists love promoting made up narratives this way, in the bar too. I don’t think you are one, still naming a source to track would help clear misunderstandings”
I would have put links in but MoA blocks them from ZH and X.
ZH has article entitled “Russia Overnight Launched Single Biggest Drone Attack On Kiev Since War’s Start”, the X post is within this article.
Posted by: Perimetr | Jul 31 2024 20:33 utc | 33
Romanian defense ministry reports on the success of F-16 pilot training:
-3 out of 50 graduated as pilots
-notable drop in physical performance, and wait gain due to alcohol consumption
-careless attitude and reluctance to learn English
To be honest, it’s not very likely they would be using Ukrainian pilots, they must be some US or UK pro pilots.
https://x.com/simpatico771/status/1818747826953724201
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 31 2024 20:52 utc | 34
After heaving killed 2 very important MIL Commanders of Hamas, Israel people should be some scared of any counter retaliation strikes on TelAviv or Haifa.
That will taken place Surely done by the so-calle Mossad-gys hidden under the US surface, the US-UNO approved mandate.
Mow. Fighting just has started.
Welcome United States Of America!
Best greetings – Maduro.
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Jul 31 2024 20:59 utc | 35
Last day of the month. Wonder what RFA will hit for a % land gained. Last month it was only .01%. (Was .03% month before.)
I’m guessing .01%, but it might hit .02%. Don’t think it will get to .03%.
https://x.com/War_Mapper/status/1808591996023386397/photo/1
—-
Oh, yeah, but “muh attrition”. Roight. Where we believe the RFA claims of UFA kills. But turn our heads away from UFA claims of RFA kills. Great.
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 31 2024 21:04 utc | 36
Anonymous | Jul 31 2024 21:04 utc | 36
Aha! You’re back! How’re those Ukrainian government bonds working out as an investment for you?
Last time I checked they were “trading” (if a locked-solid illiquid market could be called “trading”) at between 33% and 36% of face value.
That sure looks like a lot of financial attrition…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 31 2024 21:18 utc | 37
He was the US advisor in Balkans in the 1990s.
This guy has absolutely no clue what he’s talking about when he thinks Ukraine can ‘beat Russia’. He knows nothing about warfare. James O’Brien is just repeating the Uniparty party line with no understanding of anything.
His ‘new strategy’ is basically the same one as the old strategy, fighting to the last Ukrainian. And both strategies have significantly deteriorated over time.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 31 2024 19:31 utc | 28
US advisor in the Balkans.
That explains a lot.
There’s been quite an uptick in Russian abilities since then.
And a belated but existential reason to demonstrate those abilities since 3014.
Hubris is so 2003 Mr O’Brien
The reality has moved on!
Posted by: jpc | Jul 31 2024 21:19 utc | 38
And what have we here?
On July 30, the Ministry of Finance placed domestic government loan bonds (Government bonds) for UAH 5.577 billion and USD 97 million.
This is stated in the notification of the Ministry of Finance, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
The ministry placed securities with a maturity of 1 year for UAH 3,284 million at 14.65% per annum, 2 years – for UAH 2,261 million at 15.5% per annum, and 3.6 years – for UAH 32 million at 16.76% per annum.
The securities denominated in dollars have a maturity of 1 year and a yield of 4.66% per annum.
https://ukranews.com/en/news/1023326-finance-ministry-places-uah-5-6-billion-and-usd-97-million-worth-of-government-bonds
How do you say “junk bonds” in Ukrainian?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 31 2024 21:25 utc | 39
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 31 2024 21:04 utc | 36
Here you go a list of settlements captured in July. No Ukrainian gains this month. Sorry! There is some unconfirmed reports of Ukraine retaking Spirne
July
Russia captured Voskhod [uk] between around 4–11 July 2024.
Russia captured Yevhenivka, Donetsk Oblast around 10 July 2024.
Russia recaptured Urozhaine, Donetsk Oblast on 13 July 2024.
Russia captured Spirne between around 30 June – 17 July 2024.
Russia captured Ivano-Daryivka around 17 July 2024.
Russia recaptured Krynky around 18 July 2024.
Russia captured Prohres on 19 July 2024.
Russia recaptured Pishchane on 20 July 2024.
Russia captured Yasnobrodivka between around 7–26 July 2024.
Russia captured Lozuvatske [uk] around 26 July 2024.
Russia captured Novoselivka Persha around 29 July 2024.
Posted by: watcher | Jul 31 2024 21:29 utc | 40
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 31 2024 21:04 utc | 36
It could be that objectively speaking russia doesn’t lie to start wars, its not their style. There are very few countries that have expressed themselves in a cordial, professional and frankly a pro human manner as russia has, at least over my lifetime. Casualties would be part of OPSEC (could be wrong) so neither side w tell full truth. One side has a positive track record for presenting their reality. ukraine and its backers don’t.
Posted by: Tannenhouser | Jul 31 2024 21:34 utc | 41
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 31 2024 21:25 utc | 39
There was a calculation earlier this year. If you divide the amount of NATO loans and grants by the number of mobilized people in Ukraine (think they were supposed to mobilize 200k or 250k people by Autumn), you come to the conclusion that a single Ukrainian’s life is worth than an artillery shell. Arty shell costs $4k and a Ukrainian costs about $2.5k.
This is a relevant comparison, because the main condition for Ukraine receiving more loans and grants was continuing mobilization. Of course, out of that some bribe money goes to RADA deputies.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 31 2024 21:34 utc | 42
What the barfleas forget to say is that 0.1% is more than 600 square km.
That Russia already liberated 22.5% of the Ukrainian territory.
Posted by: Naive | Jul 31 2024 21:35 utc | 43
Posted by: anonposter | Jul 31 2024 17:38 utc | 12
Exactly, advice to British Second Lieutenants, treat the men’s problems and gripes as evidence in their trust in you to resolve, or help resolve them. When they stop coming to you they don’t trust you or your ability to help them. The Ukrainian Army have had several mini-revolts because they have arrested senior commanders who have refused to follow suicidal orders, IIRC, the 80th AAB is the latest. So moaning because your troops cant’t use mobile devices, or having soldiers, in veteran units, mutiny to free trusted commanders, which situation would you prefer?
Posted by: Milites | Jul 31 2024 21:36 utc | 44
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 31 2024 21:04 utc | 36
If you go by what AFU reports from single tactical engagements, you can come to the conclusion that 25% of losses claimed by AFU may be true and 75% fluff.
In Konstantinovka, AFU claimed RUAF attacked with 52 vehicles. In reality, the attack was with 12 vehicles (23%). They claimed they destroyed more vehicles than were attacking (over 100%).
So one could consider believing anywhere between 20-30% of their claimed casualties. Obviously this has significantly changed over time. But AFU reports numbers based on what sort of numbers reported they believe will bring more free money from the west.
The thing is, no one except the peanut brained liberals believe most of this stuff anymore. And this manifests itself in Zelly suddenly starting to say ‘we need peace talks’ etc. and just today he said he can ‘allow’ referendums in Ukrainian areas.
I would also remind you that Zelensky has said that this war is waged on rent. If the west doesn’t pay a rent, there is no war.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 31 2024 21:41 utc | 45
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 31 2024 19:25 utc | 27
Ever been with a bunch of soldiers, they are always scanning their arcs. Drones just add a new sector (aerial) possibly a new role, air guard, as is common with troops/crews of AFV’s under threat of ground attack. The problem is their lack of counters, then again lying on the ground and firing everything you’ve got at a designated sector of sky, was all most previously had to defend from aircraft.
In keeping with the imposed devolved nature of the war I’d think TO&E changes will include a platoon anti-drone element. The USMC have trialled this in their platoon/company rethink, with a drone support section, but its counters were the electronic rifles, which have underwhelmed in the SMO, and largely focused on enhanced ISR/strike capabilities. Similar to the AT rifle experience in WW2, though the Russians held onto theirs, unmodified, till the end!
Posted by: Milites | Jul 31 2024 21:48 utc | 46
Unimperator, I’m sure the Ukrops exaggerate RFA losses. But this doesn’t make me sanguine. Makes me doubt Russian claims also. After all, both sides are similar culture.
If either side really makes pointing attrition losses, then the territory should follow. So far it hasn’t. Just hopium copium from both the barflies and the NAFOdogs. I’ll go off of territory.
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 31 2024 21:56 utc | 47
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 31 2024 20:52 utc | 34
To become the 21st Century version of the ‘twenty minuters? Doubt it very much, old bean. The Ukrainians may have F-16’s but not the support package that normally accompanies them (dedicated SEAD, dedicated ECM/ECCM etc). Come to think of this, without these, flying against an integrated, floor-stratosphere AD system I doubt they’d even last 20 minutes.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 31 2024 21:58 utc | 48
Naive, they are only doing .01-.02% per month. Yes, with a zero to the right of the decimal!
Figure ,01-.02% per month gives .2% per year. At that rate, it will take more than 350 years to conquer the rest of Ukraine.
Hmmm…Odessa any day now! Sure…
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 31 2024 21:59 utc | 49
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 31 2024 21:59 utc | 49
And 14.65% per annum = 1.22% per month. In case you haven’t got it yet, financial attrition far outweighs territorial attrition.
Unsustainable coupon rates are unsustainable, financial collapse looms larger than ever.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 31 2024 22:06 utc | 50
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 31 2024 21:41 utc | 45
Doubt you could establish a foothold in a fortified village, with 2 platoons of IFV’s and 1 of armour. Unless, the exaggeration was designed to cover up a monumental cock-up, or lack of resources of the Ukrainian defenders, a favourite tactic of shitty commanders the world-over.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 31 2024 22:10 utc | 51
Watcher, 40, I alo enjoy following the mappers and reading the settlements taken. Somehow, it i still tiny potatoes when you add it up.
Q: Why is that?
A: Many parts of the front are static. Even if Progres salient mooves a half klick a day, that’s a 2 klick front, 1 square km per day. Add another sq km of random fields, and you get the 60 kmsq of a .01% month. The front is several 100 km long. When you zoom in and look at the tendrils that move, you’re looking at something that is non representative.
This is why they “UFA is crumbling” side get confused by consuming YT clickbait. You’re actually better off sticking with the muh attrition excuse.
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 31 2024 22:11 utc | 52
Garbage Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 31 2024 21:04 utc | 36
I can confirm that in July 2024, Ukraine regained zero percent of Crimea. And zero percent of all former Ukrainian territories. The Kiev junta did use UK, US and EU supplied weapons to murder civilians on the beaches of Crimea. These are the very same civilians that the Kiev junta claim that they want to ‘liberate’ from Russian rule, despite the fact that those people of Crimea voted to join the Russian Federation.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Jul 31 2024 22:14 utc | 53
If EU Liar females as v.d Liars,Controlling all of EU Stategous.
..
Liars will pay its monetary games asap above our daily taxes Finish off of Olympics in Paris. A very shame!st regards from OUR Jesus by at his “Latest Eve-Meal”.
Whatever you think hereto,
Hear towards your best mind!
IDF will fail at the “Latest” on Israel’s intrinsic fights each-on-each, laugh a little on its stupidity, the folk will scream again when fired by an IRAN missile strike again
Kill Muddy . Mr. Nethany Pres of Zionist directly in Israel.
Kill en all Zionists of commanders.
If not, wonder why and what those continued at the Devils US Line
Listen to further assasinations?
No thanks.
Posted by: spare_trurh_01 | Jul 31 2024 22:14 utc | 54
Anonymous | Jul 31 2024 22:11 utc | 52
“UFA is crumbling” is indeed small potatoes. It’s the gravo-thermal implosion of Ukraine as a social, civic, political and economic entity that is baked in, regardless of Russian territorial gains.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 31 2024 22:20 utc | 55
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 31 2024 21:56 utc | 47
Territory is falling to Russia. the sory og the battle goes like this:
Feb- march 22 – Hugr gains to Russia, in the expectation of a deal
April – June 22 – Russian confusion and withdrawal
July- Dec 22 – overall terrible for Russia – huge withdrawals but held most key areas
Jan-June 23 = Very slow progress almost stalemate until two changes. Bahkmut and the start of the Ukrainian offensive
July-Dec 23 – the tide turns against Ukraine very slowly. Think of it like a pipe under pressure. First just a tiny leak – barely perceptible. Then in very late December a significant win in Donetsk that seemed to open a bigger hole
Jan – June 24 – steady Russian gains. Not exactly a gush or pipe burst but a very clear steady stream of gains for Russia. These gains are significant and when you add the areas already contested or under significant pressure, at least in Donetsk, the battle is hopeless for Ukraine. Whatever settlement is finally reached, Ukraine will not be left with anything much of Donetsk.
This was always to be expected because the population is Russian speaking and at least 30% identify as Russian fully. The Russian speaking Ukrainians, even if still feeling some sort of non Russian identity, will still opt for the much better economic advantages offered by Russia, where they can easily find work because there is no language barrier (other than cleaning and sex work in Europe) and where pensions and salaries are much better.
Luhansk of course is already settled (other than some small villages) as are the eastern bank of Kherson. Zaporizhia and Kharkov are the two big challenges for Russia and I make no predictions there.
Posted by: watcher | Jul 31 2024 22:20 utc | 56
Posted by: spare_trurh_01 | Jul 31 2024 22:14 utc | 54
Barman!! I’ll have a large one of whatever spare_trurh_01 is drinking please.
And a large bowl of sour grapes for Anonymous.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Jul 31 2024 22:21 utc | 57
Figure ,01-.02% per month gives .2% per year. At that rate, it will take more than 350 years to conquer the rest of Ukraine.
Hmmm…Odessa any day now! Sure…
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 31 2024 21:59 utc | 49
Well sure. i gotcha. You arent wrong. What if russia doesnt want ukraine? To my knowledge russia wants a de militarized de nazified non nuclear non NATO neighbour. At this point what that looks like seems entirely up to the west.
Posted by: Tannenhouser | Jul 31 2024 22:31 utc | 58
If EU Liar females as v.d Liars,Controlling all of EU Stategous.
..
Liars will pay its monetary games asap above our daily taxes Finish off of Olympics in Paris. A very shame!st regards from OUR Jesus by at his “Latest Eve-Meal”.
Whatever you think hereto,
Hear towards your best mind!
Why it’s so difficult to accept puppet leaders like Elendsky, Biden, Harris, Killary Clinton?
IDF will fail at the “Latest” on Israel’s intrinsic fights each-on-each, laugh a little on its stupidity, the folk will scream again when fired by an IRAN missile strike again
Kill Muddy . Mr. Nethany Pres of Zionist directly in Israel.
Kill en all Zionists of commanders.
If not, wonder why and what those continued at the Devils US Line
Listen to further assasinations?
No thanks.
May Libya and Iraq wars return. US will disappear from surface.
That’s all.
Posted by: spare_trurh_01 | Jul 31 2024 22:32 utc | 59
I did an update on Ukraine, Ukraine: Russian Progress Accelerating.
The Russians are only about 10km short of Pokrovsk, which is the southern supply hub for the Kramatorsk/Slavyansk defensive line (as well as the supply hub for all of the south east Ukrainian military lines). If the Russians can also build on their increasing successes south of Kupyansk toward the Oskil River, they would also have a chance to cut off the northern supply route at Izyum. That only leaves the railway through Barvinkove that could be easily destroyed and continuously re-destroyed if necessary. That would put the Slavyansk/Kramatork/Druzhkivka/Kostyantynivka line under siege, perhaps before the onset of winter. An outside possibility, but not one that I was even thinking about a month ago before the Russians started to accelerate their progress.
With the probable fall of Chasov Yar, Niu York/Toretsk, and Ugledar in the same timeframe, the pressure of the Ukrainian leadership would be intense.
58 Tannenbaum:
OK. A more reasonable political objective like taking the remaining territory of the four annexed oblasts, would be faster. They are missing about 5%. So that would take 25 years.
A quarter century. Will Putin be alive then? Will you or I? Either RFA needs to increase the pace, or settle. I doubt they keep the will to fight for 25 years. The Kherson area in particular, will be formidable to go after. Remember RFA retreated from there and there is a huge river…and they won’t have surprise as they did in 2022.
I think more likely we get some sort of Korean War DMZ near the current lines. RFA has no hope of getting the city of Kherson. Putin will sell it as a political victory saying he got 80% of a loaf of bread (the 4 oblasts). Really, the issue is not Putin. He has been signaling willingness to haggle. The issue is Z and the West, which doesn’t want to “let Russia get away with something”. RFA needs to keep beating on Z and the West, to get them to the DMZ table.
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 31 2024 23:08 utc | 61
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 31 2024 23:08 utc | 61
Oh, fer [flying spaghetti monster’s] sake! LOOK AT THE FINANCES!!!
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 31 2024 23:15 utc | 62
Although, I suppose a DMZ would be somewhere safe to deposit Ukraine’s sovereign gold reserves…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 31 2024 23:25 utc | 63
@4 unimperator
Re: peace talks
As far as I know Putin has put up ukrainian withdrawal from russian claims, and not russian troops from ukrainian territory. That is all of the oblasts and once Russia has them then a cease fire will start. And then negotiations so who knows where a peace treaty ends, it’s not clear that Putin Will forgo a security buffer zone. Obviously a full collapse of the ukrainian army will be necessary for that. Otherwise it may be a renewed Russian offensive after some time for regrouping if negotiations fail to “demilitarize and denazify” Ukraine. Nevermind keeping ukraine out of nato.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 31 2024 23:50 utc | 64
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 31 2024 23:08 utc | 61
When a rocket takes off, it is barely moving. It has only made it .00000000001% of the distance to orbit. Using my calculations it will take 1,237 years to get to a geostationary position.
When you step off a (mentally challenged wrong metric) metaphorical cliff, an inept premise is only .0000000000000000001% of the way to crashing into reality. It will take one million, three hundred thousand, twenty two years, ten months and six days and forty four seconds for one to admit their posts have been incorrect.
See how exact and logical my reasoning is because I used lotsa num bahs? I feel soooooo0000oooo smart! I am 2,497% confident I am swaying MOA readers into my way of thinking.
Posted by: jopalolive | Jul 31 2024 23:55 utc | 65
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 31 2024 21:59 utc | 49
LOL, you fell directly in the trap I set up for you! Many thanks.
Posted by: Naive | Aug 1 2024 0:11 utc | 66
Jopa, 65:
If we look at the last eight months, the record of gains is
.00%
.01%
.01%
.02%
.01%
.01%
.03%
.01%
[And this month is looking like either a .01 or a .02…it’s gonna fall short of the .03 Kharkov offensive glory month.]
At least to date, there’s no indication of acceleration. If it happens in the future, I’ll give the Russians credit. But right now, it’s just a Russophile hopium. A wish. Not an observation.
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 1 2024 0:34 utc | 67
@ Anonymous
The longer it takes, the more of your kind who will die.
Attrition is fine with me.
Posted by: malenkov | Aug 1 2024 0:48 utc | 68
At least to date, there’s no indication of acceleration.
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 1 2024 0:34 utc | 67
When there will be not enough bodies left to keep the territory, what will happen? From 1’000 kia/day to currently between 2’000 and 3’000 kia/day. That is a prodigious acceleration: 200% to 300%. Boom. Gliding bombs. Boom. The only fieds which are growing in Ukraine are the cemeteries and other burial grounds, for not all corpses are removed from the battle fields. Especially when a bomb falls on a dugout. Boom.
Posted by: Naive | Aug 1 2024 1:16 utc | 69
@12
True the world over… I recall an old chief at my first command saying “a notching sailor is a happy sailor”…
Posted by: Adriatic Hillbilly | Aug 1 2024 1:39 utc | 70
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 1 2024 0:34 utc | 67
Are you seriously telling me that there are still morons, more than 2 years into this war, who think that Russia wants to capture Ukraine in toto and then march into the rest of Europe?
The western propaganda apparatus is something to behold, but this far into it there is no excuse to be as ignorant and idiotic as “Anonymous” here.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Aug 1 2024 1:42 utc | 72
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 31 2024 20:52 utc | 34
The RAF never operated the F-16 so were are all these UK F-16 pilots going to come from?
My bet would be USAF pilots from the ‘Ukrainian’ diaspora and random butthurt belt idiots mostly from Poland.
I wonder if poles understand that in America they are considered to be white trash. Polack jokes are still told widely and unashamedly in many parts of the country. Particularly around Chicago for some reason.
Posted by: badjoke | Aug 1 2024 1:54 utc | 73
72,
I’m sure there are. I’m not one of them.
However, I think a NAFO who worries about RFA attacking Poland is as silly as a Russophile who thinks the reason RFA moves slow is because they prefer that (i.e. that Russia could take Kiev and Kherson and Odessa, but just chooses not to.)
The obvious reason both of these hopium, copium types (on each side) are wrong is that it doesn’t even matter what Russia “wants”. They don’t have the capability to credibly threaten NATO in conventional war. They’re all tied up in a crappy proxy war in Ukraine.
It’s like talking about if Russia wants to conquer Mars or not. Who cares what they want. They can’t.
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 1 2024 2:40 utc | 74
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 1 2024 2:40 utc | 74
You’re as dumb NAFO bot as they get. Russia does not want to spend it’s man power on some second rate ukro-nazi turds. They are keeping their powder dry when the dumbshit western pederasts like you try to attack it for real. That’s when you’ll see your degenerate ass ripped apart, homo
Posted by: Boo | Aug 1 2024 3:29 utc | 75
Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 31 2024 22:11 utc | 52
No I think the real key is logistics.
As i say a tiny pinhole leak in Donbass in December has grown to a full on detectable stream of Russian gains by July. It is only a matter of weeks before the Donetsk pipe burst fully and we will see Russia retake almost all of the region. Not sure what percentage of Ukraine that covers but from the map it looks about 20% of the distance to Odessa (Much less if you start from Kherson. So if Donetsk alone were a guide (it isn’t) Russia has taken 1.5 years to claim Donetsk fully and to get to Odessa at the same rate it would take,might take 5-7 years.
More realistically before the end of the year Russia will have full control of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk, most of Kherson and a significant part of Zaporizhia. That seems certain. However that is not sufficient to keep Russia safe, so I do not think any peace treaty would just accept that. Odessa and Nikolayev must be free of NATO forces. To achieve this Zaporizhia city must be taken along with key supply routes. I do not think Russia is much interested in Kiev of Kharkov. it was hoping to take Kharkov,initially but when that failed they lost interest. They want a buffer zone to protect Russian territory and that could easily be managed in a peace treaty.
Russia would be stupid to even want the Polish provinces. Too many vipers in their own lands. No let the Poles have Lvov (Lemberg) or perhaps return to Germany. All Russia needs is neutrality and assurance that no hostile NATO forces are there. That is also achievable via a UB brokered peace.
Essentially Russia
needs: 1. finish up Donetsk 2. Fight hard and nasty for Zaporizhia. 3. Buffer zone in Kharkpov and maybe Sumy,
After that a Settlement is possible.
So prediction: a nasty hard and costly fight for Zaporizhia is the next thing to watch.
Posted by: watcher | Aug 1 2024 3:42 utc | 76
@ bad joke, #73
A good number of immigrant Poles settled in the Chicago area in the late 1800s and early 1900s and many of their descendants are still in that area–metropolitan Chicago is a huge area in km2, I’d have to do some rough measurements but greatly spread out. I used to hear “Polack” jokes when I was a kid and I’m 600 miles west of Chicago. Eventually, the more ever present Norwegians around here became the main butt of local jokes, but with less nastiness than the “Polack” jokes.
Posted by: DakotaRog | Aug 1 2024 3:57 utc | 77
Re: Posted by: watcher | Aug 1 2024 3:42 utc | 76
I do not think Russia is much interested in Kiev of Kharkov. it was hoping to take Kharkov,initially but when that failed they lost interest. They want a buffer zone to protect Russian territory and that could easily be managed in a peace treaty.
Russia would be stupid to even want the Polish provinces. Too many vipers in their own lands. No let the Poles have Lvov (Lemberg) or perhaps return to Germany. All Russia needs is neutrality and assurance that no hostile NATO forces are there. That is also achievable via a UB brokered peace.
Essentially Russia
needs: 1. finish up Donetsk 2. Fight hard and nasty for Zaporizhia. 3. Buffer zone in Kharkpov and maybe Sumy,
After that a Settlement is possible.
So prediction: a nasty hard and costly fight for Zaporizhia is the next thing to watch.
Hang in a second – or interstate in Kiev or Kharkov?!?
Isn’t Kiev the cradle of Russian civilisation and isn’t Kharkov a historic Russian city?!?
I’m sure I heard President Putin talk about this.
As for the second point – Zaporizhia?!?
I’d worry about taking all of Donetsk first – including Kramatorsk & Slavayansk! Unlikely to happen this year – and may not even happen next year!
Posted by: Julian | Aug 1 2024 4:23 utc | 78
The obvious reason both of these hopium, copium types (on each side) are wrong is that it doesn’t even matter what Russia “wants”. They don’t have the capability to credibly threaten NATO in conventional war. They’re all tied up in a crappy proxy war in Ukraine.
It’s like talking about if Russia wants to conquer Mars or not. Who cares what they want. They can’t.
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 1 2024 2:40 utc | 74
I disagree. The use of the word “credibly” is ridiculous as well. MAD/Samson Option/First Strike capability, etc. Besides, Russia has always been able to exert a much stronger role and deterrence in Syria, for example. Other considerations and context – often wrongly interpreted as weakness or inability – are at play, just as with Iran in how to respond to Israel’s latest provocation.
If anything, the Russians and Iranians know the long game. Far better than the Western “garden” dwellers (inclusive of Israel and the Ukrainian regime) who only think about the next quarter’s profits and risks whilst the rest of the world has gotten wise to the imperialist game.
But we’ll see.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Aug 1 2024 4:24 utc | 79
76. The “full on” steam of gains is not happening. The math shows that. Russians are averaging between .01% and .02% per month. It’s just the effect of staring at the few changes and ignoring the vast static parts of the front that makes you think that it’ a massive advance. Compare instead the push of armies in WW2, for instance. Or the American Civil War. The clickbaiters are misleading you.
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 1 2024 4:29 utc | 80
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 1 2024 4:29 utc | 80
You are way too hung up on incremental percentages, especially considering the overall nature and context of this war.
Consider this, from Simplicius who is citing multiple other sources:
One of the most revealing facts is their admission that Kharkov was nothing more than a distraction by the Russian forces…
At the same time, Moscow has managed to induce Ukraine to send troops there by creating a new battle front in the Kharkiv area. “The Ukrainians have taken the bait,” says Colonel Markus Reisner from the Austrian Ministry of Defense. In addition, the supply of electricity is becoming increasingly precarious. Millions of Ukrainian households often have no water or electricity for hours on end.
Interestingly, Ukraine’s own 47th Brigade just recently confessed this as well, from another source:
The battalion commander of the 47th AFU brigade whines from near Ocheretino that the invasion of the Russian army in the north of the Kharkiv region has diverted a lot of AFU forces from the central areas, which are now critically insufficient near Pokrovsk. In addition, the change in tactics of the Russian commanders near Avdiivka demonstrates the success of the chosen strategy – a gradual offensive along several sections of the direction at once.
As you can see, there is a clear divergence between what the pro-Ukraine faction states publicly and what is privately acknowledged. Publicly, the narrative is that Kharkov is a “big victory” for the AFU because it stopped some kind of mythical Russian invasion force dead in its tracks. I roundly refuted this in the last mailbag, emphasizing that it was obvious to any half-decent analyst the Kharkov incursion was nothing more than a fixing action to strip away units from the main assault in Donbass.
So what kind of ‘percentages’ would or should one expect from a diversionary tactic?
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Aug 1 2024 4:36 utc | 81
I agree that the Kharkov offensive was not a big effort. You can see that clearly from the small forces that were used. It wasn’t even “misdirection” (as if that can happen on that scale). It was more of an opportunistic nibble, that put a little more pressure on UKR. Sort of like (but more successful and economical) than UKR incursions into Belgorad.
But all that doesn’t change that % total territory changing is very small. And you get the wrong impression from hitting zoom and looking at the tiny changes that do happen. If you zoom out to the whole country, the monthly changes are not visible. This is different than in 22 or 23. And different than WW2. It’s a static front. The clickbaiters are misleading you.
Heck, if the acceleration is happening and the lines are cracking, we should go from .01% one month to .02% to .04%, to 1% to 2%. But we’re not seeing that. And that’s because we have peer competitors, a modern battlefield with massive drone overview, and both sides still willing to fight.
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 1 2024 4:46 utc | 82
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 1 2024 4:46 utc | 82
But here’s where we (meaning you?) confuse wants or needs with propaganda. Should Russia be surrounding Kiev by now? What if they actually don’t want to be? What if the entire goal, in this phase of the war, and knowing the demographic and logistical issues facing Ukraine and NATO, is simply to attrite UAF/NATO forces ad nauseum until it becomes unwinnable or, rather, un-sellable to the western public and any potential Ukrainian conscripts still left?
What am I missing here? The fact of the matter is that “Putin” or “Russia” do not want to take over or annex any of Ukraine beyond the Donbass region or Crimea and that even BOTH of those were not wanted as territories of annexation to begin with?
So how can you claim to be applying some historical war metric for how much territory the Russians “should” be taking given the unique aforementioned considerations – and – the also pretty unique and unprecedented levels of fortifications that Ukraine engaged in for the past 8 years in the towns and territories we’re talking about?
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Aug 1 2024 4:56 utc | 83
Posted by: Julian | Aug 1 2024 4:23 utc | 78
Currently in Donetsk, the Russians are taking or retaking about 8 settlements /month since February and there are currently about 13 listed as contested and more under pressure. There are about 48-50 or so settlements still listed as under Ukranian control, so technically it could take 6 months. Some of course are bigger cities/towns so perhaps bit longer, if current averages remain constant. However if you just look at the period before February, Russian gains in Donetsk were minimal indeed negative. So February was a huge change.
Posted by: watcher | Aug 1 2024 5:28 utc | 84
Re: Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Aug 1 2024 4:36 utc | 81
Publicly, the narrative is that Kharkov is a “big victory” for the AFU because it stopped some kind of mythical Russian invasion force dead in its tracks. I roundly refuted this in the last mailbag, emphasizing that it was obvious to any half-decent analyst the Kharkov incursion was nothing more than a fixing action to strip away units from the main assault in Donbass.
So what kind of ‘percentages’ would or should one expect from a diversionary tactic?
One might well ask – if the Russian complaint about Western & NATO missiles in Ukraine is legitimate – why no interest in Sumt & Chernigov?
Attacking on multiple directions into Sumy & Chernigov would also strip the Donbass front of soldiers and lead to it cracking – so why wouldn’t they do it?
And – to point out the obvious – these are the areas CLOSEST TO MOSCOW!
Posted by: Julian | Aug 1 2024 5:32 utc | 85
simply to attrite UAF/NATO forces ad nauseum until it becomes unwinnable or, rather, un-sellable to the western public and any potential Ukrainian conscripts still left
unprecedented levels of fortifications that Ukraine engaged in for the past 8 years in the towns and territories
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Aug 1 2024 4:56 utc | 83
But who allowed the “unprecedented” fortifications and many years of uninterrupted flow of weapons and mercenaries, the 30+ biolabs and constant attacks? I doubt “nato forces” can feel attrition with 10 killed per month and a few tanks and planes lost per year. Money is no problem either. It all looks like a simple Syrianization of Russia, which worked thanks to the little slow smo.
And now the great minds of Duma have just closed the country with their new law for 2 years of military service for migrants. I can understand, Gersimov is killing a large number of soldiers without results and needs more soldiers but preferably not Russians, however this law is perfect for EU and US, they won’t lose any brains to Russia. No one will be soldier for two years for the privilege to be blown up by cluster bombs on a Russian beach while Kiev is safer than Moscow ( t.me/duma_gov_ru/4213 ).
Locals are also punished, the same Duma voted against deferment from mobilization for fathers of large families ( en.topwar.ru/247349-gosduma-otklonila-zakonoproekt-ob-otsrochke-ot-mobilizacii-dlja-mnogodetnyh-otcov.html )
Posted by: rk | Aug 1 2024 5:45 utc | 86
Victor vicktop55
@vicktop55
Former adviser to Ukrainian President Kuchma Soskin:
“The collapse is very close. Maybe Zelensky has some secret plan, but we have been watching his power for more than five years, and he has not had any successes. Only defeats and failures. Zelensky is counting on the fact that they will send planes and missiles now, and he will be able to strike Russia.
But Putin will then strike so hard that it will not seem like a little. Well, and the main thing is that Syrsky will not be able to do anything with this Chief of the General Staff. It is already clear that this military bloc with Syrsky and Umerov is incompetent.”
https://x.com/vicktop55/status/1818663507715322141
Already F-16s in western Ukraine. I assume judging by what the incompetents in Europe and five-eyes have been saying, that they will be trying to strike into Russia with nato weapons that haven’t yet been used – like the German Taurus cruise missile. They might get a few leakers through but F-16s will ultimately burn like everything else.
The difference being that the F-16s are nuclear capable and Russia will have no way of knowing if it is using a conventional weapon or nuclear weapon.
If Nato is going to launch one last offensive, it will have to do it fast as they are fast Running out of cannon fodder. Those first offensives with the second Nato army were conducted with a total of seventy thousand men. At a current casualty rate of two thousand per day, that is just over a months worth of dog meat.
I’m assuming Nato has around 700,000 on the frontlines now and struggling to hold the line. And struggling to find new cannon fodder. At two thousand a day it will take about 350 days – a year to kill them off, though I assume the casualty rate will only increase as time goes on.
That scarcely moving front line. As Putin said about Palestine “Let the men fight, keep the women and children out of it.” And so it is in Ukraine. That single line of destruction. The old time battle field. Russia does not have take territory and chase Nato because Nato comes to it. It does not have to chase the nazi’s all over Ukraine to denazify the place because the nazis come to it.
Whatever is left of the nazi’s once this is over can be tracked down and killed individually.
Even the western media several months ago were writing articles about Ukrainian villages being devoid of males.
I guess even more so than prior to Feb 2022, mail order brides will be Ukraine’s main export.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 1 2024 5:47 utc | 87
83. If they don’t want to, why did they try it? And wouldn’t it be the quickest way to force a settlement (yes even if they didn’t keep Kiev, to push the rest of the concessions. After all it worked with Tbilsi.)
In any case, we don’t have to speculate if they want it or not…they lack the ability to get it, regardless if they want it. How do we know? Because they can’t even take the Donetsk. Because they certainly want Kherson (it is formally annexed), yet lack any threat to go after it, in the near term.
Again, even if you put the political objectives at the 4 oblasts (plus Crimea), it’s going to take them a quarter century to get the remaining 5%, at the rate they are moving. And good luck forcing neutrality and the rest of all that, if you can’t show the ability to drive. And no, .02%/month is not some massive rate of advance. Stop getting taken in by the YT grifters feeding your hopium with clickbait. sure, they show the places that changed. But the overall front is changing extremely slowly. Y’all are way too excited about individual treelines and 9 farm hamlets from a country the size of Texas!
Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 1 2024 6:16 utc | 88
Posted by: rk | Aug 1 2024 5:45 utc | 86
The Duma has a proposal for a law that may require two years military service for citizenship. At present, those receiving citizenship in the draft age group are already required to register for military service. This will affect very few people, because permanent residency does not require registration, and permanent residency has all the rights of citizenship with the exception of voting rights and military service.
You really need to stop false scaremongering.
Posted by: Peter Williams | Aug 1 2024 6:30 utc | 89
Ex-adviser to Kuchma Soskin:
The crash is very close. Maybe Zelensky has some kind of secret plan, but we have been monitoring his power for more than five years, and he has not had any success. Only defeats and failures. Zelensky expects that planes and missiles will now be sent, and he will be able to strike Russia. But Putin will then strike in such a way that it won’t seem like much. Well, the main thing is that Syrsky will not be able to do anything with this chief of the general staff at all. It is already clear that this military bloc with Syrsky and Umerov is incompetent.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 1 2024 6:57 utc | 90
THE WORLD’S MOST POWERFUL ELECTRONIC WARFARE SYSTEM MURMANSK-BN CRIPPLES F-35 FIGHTERS OVER THE BLACK AND BALTIC SEAS…
After two years of fighting in Ukraine, even the most staunchly pro-Ukrainian military experts and many Western think tanks are beginning to admit that the Ukrainian armed forces have suffered a crushing defeat on the battlefield. In trying to understand the root cause of the Russian troops’ success on the battlefield, many military analysts have noted three combat factors: combat aviation, artillery, and electronic warfare systems.
In particular, French military expert Xavier Raufer, in his article for the online news source Atlantico, acknowledged the great effectiveness of Russian electronic warfare systems on the battlefield. He noted that Russian electronic warfare systems are capable of neutralising not only all modern Western military targets, including naval and air bases of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and the Pentagon, but also ordinary civilian installations. In addition, the high level of radiation from Russian electronic warfare systems has been shown to adversely affect not only the electronics of Western fighter aircraft, but also the pilots themselves. In the last 20 to 30 days alone, dozens of cases have been reported of NATO pilots complaining of loss of communication and discomfort with severe headaches persisting during flights even several hundred kilometres from the borders of the Russian Federation.
According to NATO pilots, such electronic discomfort and headaches also occur when they encounter Russian fighters on patrol. All of this suggests that Russian fighters are also equipped with fairly powerful electronic warfare systems that can have a negative impact on the electronics of NATO fighters and the pilots themselves. At present, the West has no effective means of countering Russian electronic warfare systems. At the same time, NATO and the Pentagon are concerned that Russian engineers are continually improving existing electronic warfare systems and are actively working to create next-generation systems. It is well known that the Russian military has begun testing the latest electronic warfare systems on the battlefield in Ukraine. It is reported that these new-generation systems have been created on the basis of the experience of combat operations in Ukraine and can significantly increase the military potential of the Russian army. Russian electronic warfare systems continue to surprise experts and arouse fear in the Western military.
The Pentagon’s technological backwardness is no longer a secret. I recall that even Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is paradoxically inclined to solve military-political problems exclusively through diplomacy, even in hot spots like Ukraine and Taiwan. Clearly, Washington has serious concerns about the outcome of high-tech wars that could prove dramatic for the United States. The Pentagon’s concerns have been heightened by reports that the Russians have also begun developing an entirely new long-range electronic warfare system that far surpasses the MURMANSK-BN in performance and capability. Judging by this information, it is becoming clear that the Russian military intends to continue to maintain its status as the owner of the most powerful electronic warfare systems in the world.
https://x.com/peacemaket71/status/1818600199742267476
https://en.reseauinternational.net/le-systeme-de-guerre-electronique-le-plus-puissant-au-monde-murmansk-bn-a-paralyse-les-chasseurs-f-35-au-dessus-de-la-mer-noire-et-de-la-mer-baltique/
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 1 2024 7:12 utc | 91
You really need to stop false scaremongering.
Posted by: Peter Williams | Aug 1 2024 6:30 utc | 89
You better write a letter to Duma, I’m not responsible for Russian laws.
And why do you use an Ingles nickname? You don’t fool anyone.
Posted by: rk | Aug 1 2024 7:14 utc | 92
unimperator | Aug 1 2024 7:12 utc | 91
A very interesting read. A couple of years back, I think it was a deputy defence minister announced that Russia’s R&D would be mainly focusing on directed energy. And that research would focus around the new physics/physical principles breakthrough.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 1 2024 7:25 utc | 93
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 31 2024 21:34 utc | 42
Arty shell costs $4k and a Ukrainian costs about $2.5k.
Relevant digression.
Cost to the US taxpayer of killing one Taliban fighter: US$42.1 million.
One Taliban dead = 16,800 former-commies-turned-starry-eyes-wannabe-westerner-ukrops dead.
Those ukrops come in cheap.
Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Aug 1 2024 7:44 utc | 94
Ukraine lost more than 60,000 servicemen in the area of the special military operation in July, data from the Russian Defense Ministry show.
From July 1 to 5, Ukrainian losses were up to 9,875 troops in all theaters of military operations. They were up to 14,070 from July 6 to 12, and up to 13,075 from July 13 to 19. The figure was up to 23,610 in the period from July 20 to 31.
This means Ukraine’s losses totaled up to 60,630 servicemen in July. The enemy’s daily losses average about 2,000 people. Most losses happen in the areas of responsibility of the Russian battlegroups South and West.
https://tass.com/defense/1823861
Posted by: guest | Aug 1 2024 8:06 utc | 95
Ukrainian losses for July 31st, as reported by the Russian defence ministry:
– Sever Group (Kharkov): 350 troops, 1 HMV, 2 artillery pieces
– Zapad Group (Luhansk area): 470 troops, 9 motor vehicles, 5 artillery piece
– Yug Group (Donetsk north): 710 troops, 1 tank, 1 APC, 2 motor vehicles, 9 artillery pieces, 2 EW systems
– Tsetr Group (Donetsk south): 350 troops, 1 tank, 1 APC, 8 artillery pieces
– Vostok Group (southern front): 150 troops, 2 ACV, 6 motor vehicles, 5 artillery pieces
– Dnepr Group: 100 troops, 7 motor vehicles, 3 artillery pieces, 1 counter battery radar
In total: 2,130 troops (about 2,500-3,000 with undercounting: 75,000 to 90,000 a month). We seem to have hit a new normal of 2,000 to 2,500 reported losses.
2 tanks, 4 AFV/IFV/APC/ACV, 1 HMV, 23 motor vehicles; continuing transformation of the Ukrainian army into infantry plus “technicals” (pickup trucks with mounted weapons).
32 artillery pieces, close to the maximum level of daily losses – a rate of 1000 per month. 1 EW and 1 Counter Battery Radar system.
In addition the Russians are adept at shooting down ATACMS and HIMARS missiles, as well as hunting down and destroying HIMARS systems.
Roger | Aug 1 2024 8:15 utc | 96
Those numbers are the thing to watch. This a conflict, I guess unlike any other we have seen in our lifetimes. Not to conquer territory, not to rule and dominate over others.
Russia VS ‘Nato’ with US operating in ‘lead from behind’ mode. The Ukroids volunteered to be the cannon fodder. And cannon fodder they are. It is sad how so easily people are led to their own destruction.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 1 2024 8:40 utc | 97
Some real news from two majors and Zhivoff
ZHIVOVZ : Good news on electronic warfare
No details, but it will soon become difficult for enemy drone pilots to fly over our positions. I can’t speak for the entire front, but they say it’s a mass phenomenon. Soon everyone will be covered with high-quality bird protection. Everything according to the Ministry of Defense, taking into account all the changes at the front. The product was finalized taking into account the comments of front-line soldiers.
Call sign Ossetian:
I confirm. I saw and looked at all this, thanks to everyone who is involved in this. Soon there will be a lot of electronic warfare equipment everywhere, they are already starting to help a lot. The main thing is that everyone uses it, and not, as happens with some, there are boxes lying around and not only without work, but they complain that there is no electronic warfare anywhere.
The parties are very large.
✨ There are still positive changes, of course. It would be more likely that this would reach the front and begin to be used in a unified system by trained military personnel. In the meantime, the feedback bot is inundated with requests for help with electronic warfare, and front-line laboratories are developing “trench electronic warfare.”
Two majors
Posted by: Boo | Aug 1 2024 8:45 utc | 98
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 1 2024 8:40 utc | 97
It is sad Peter.
But to put it more accurately the Ukraine political class of compradors volunteered the people that they ruled over to become cannon fodder. As the Kiev leadership is a fascist junta since the 2014 US orchestrated coup, the people have had very little agency. While the Galician Nazis have been enthusiastic supporters of the Russophobic madness, just as many people in the eastern territories wanted no part in it.
It’s the familiar story of ruling elites sending working class to slaughter.
Posted by: Lev Davidovich | Aug 1 2024 9:24 utc | 99
THETI mapping has a solid analysis on the front. In some way one could argue it is more detailed tactically than MS.
But MS will give you general guidelines of things.
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 1 2024 9:30 utc | 100