News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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July 24, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-175
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
Comments
BMT Episode 24 – not very Military Update with Mike Mihajlovic and me
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 26 2024 20:05 utc | 301 @Paranaense – and even then : Mother Teresa was a fraud, gathering money supposedly for the suffering and sick, and handing it over to the Vatican ! Posted by: Featherless | Jul 26 2024 20:10 utc | 302 “Radical new” idea from Zhivoff:
Posted by: Boo | Jul 26 2024 20:26 utc | 303 @Paranaense | Fri, 26 Jul 2024 19:25:00 GMT | 301
Are any of us running for the highest public office in the US, wherein service to others is the paramount qualification? No? So false analogy then. Posted by: James M. | Jul 26 2024 22:03 utc | 304 303 – Mother Theresa devoted her entire life to caring for the poor, sick and destitute in India. Posted by: Tobias Cole | Jul 27 2024 2:46 utc | 305 “He doesn’t care about anything other than himself.” Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 27 2024 3:29 utc | 306 Interesting watching the progression of the Russian peacetime army as it transforms into a combat hardened lean mean fighting machine. Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 27 2024 3:43 utc | 307 Posted by: Ново З | Jul 26 2024 9:57 utc | 263 Posted by: Paranaense | Jul 27 2024 4:10 utc | 308 Posted by: Paranaense | Jul 27 2024 4:10 utc | 309 Posted by: UWDude | Jul 27 2024 4:24 utc | 309 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/26/us/politics/austin-russia-ukraine-defense-plot.html Posted by: UWDude | Jul 27 2024 5:12 utc | 310 Anyone remember this? The poster perhaps seeing this? abrogard | Jul 27 2024 5:31 utc | 312 Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 27 2024 5:48 utc | 312 My 313? Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 27 2024 6:07 utc | 313 Looks like I’m not the only one saying there must be at most 15m in Ukr Posted by: rk | Jul 27 2024 8:13 utc | 314 Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 27 2024 6:07 utc | 314 303 – Mother Theresa devoted her entire life to caring for the poor, sick and destitute in India. I may be looking in the wrong place or maybe just missed them but haven’t seen any posts by bevin for some time. Posted by: Vragtes | Jul 27 2024 9:39 utc | 317 @Boo | Jul 26 2024 20:26 utc | 304
Russia can duplicate such a system, Russia has the IT and technological skills to do that. The problem comes in with the parquet generals and corrupt generals who stifle initiative. Russia can very easily put in a system to identify, track, anticipate and kill every human being within 500km of the front line. Worse part is that its not shells killing Russian soldiers, but drones, Russia can deal with artillery. Why no small anti-drone automatic shotgun system mounted on every armoured vehicle yet? All it takes is one mechanical engineer, one electronic engineer and one IT hacker, using off the shelf components, and one laptop to control the system. Posted by: gT | Jul 27 2024 10:46 utc | 318 Peter AU1@313….I doubt the US has any rights in 404 as far as land goes, unless they take and hold it, or, fuck, heaven forbid, Russia gives it up. But the grain growing on those fields, like here, belongs to the Patent owner. Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 27 2024 12:47 utc | 319 >> “He doesn’t care about anything other than himself.” Posted by: despondent | Jul 27 2024 12:48 utc | 320 @ Peter AU1 | Jul 27 2024 6:07 utc | 314 Posted by: despondent | Jul 27 2024 13:04 utc | 321
Looks like the last ‘great offensive will kick off soon. Looks like the Nato troops are still using the figleaf of mercenaries. Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 27 2024 13:04 utc | 322 Has anyone linked to this article yet? Posted by: librul | Jul 27 2024 13:50 utc | 323 abrogard | Jul 27 2024 9:07 utc | 316 Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 27 2024 13:55 utc | 324 @ abrogard | Jul 27 2024 9:07 utc | 316 Posted by: despondent | Jul 27 2024 15:31 utc | 325 Even *if* we were to discover that farmland title remains largely in the hands of actual Ukrainians, given their weak bargaining position I bet Natostan logistics companies make all the money. “We can’t ship grain for free! Think you can find another company to ship it out of a war zone for you? Go ahead and try!” Would Natostan oligopolists compete with each other on price for Ukrainian business? Posted by: despondent | Jul 27 2024 15:38 utc | 326 https://fabianscheidler.substack.com/p/europes-path-to-war-and-self-destruction Posted by: JAB | Jul 27 2024 16:52 utc | 327 Posted by: Paranaense | Jul 27 2024 4:10 utc | 309 Posted by: Milites | Jul 27 2024 17:06 utc | 328 Just read through the latest S article, doing some math on the MOD report, had to take my socks of, phew, lucky for the extra digits, a plus here, a carry there and holy crap, Russians are saying they killed or injured 13k plus Ukrainians and vacationing foreigners over the past few weeks. Lots of new NATO kit already in theatre. The hardware clobber list alone is fairly impressive…..almost FABulous. Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 27 2024 18:53 utc | 329 The simple way to determine shit from shinola in regards to the question of FPV drones vs traditional firepower is mass and energy. Explosives charges and rocket engines can generate far more energy, in a faster, more concentrated form than the stored energy in a drones battery. And those charges can deliver more mass at an order of magnitude higher velocity. Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 27 2024 19:04 utc | 330 Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 27 2024 19:04 utc | 331 Posted by: UWDude | Jul 27 2024 19:12 utc | 331 Drones give better accuracy. Exactly why they are deployed massively now, and more befitting a “smo” than a genocidal war. If it were genocidal war, your axiom would hold true. Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 27 2024 20:06 utc | 332 The only difference between sniping with a drone as opposed to a rifle or ATGM is you don’t need a direct line of sight with a drone. Posted by: UWDude | Jul 27 2024 20:13 utc | 333 abrogard | Jul 27 2024 9:10 utc | 317 Posted by: Cynic | Jul 27 2024 20:57 utc | 334 Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 27 2024 19:04 utc | 331 Posted by: Milites | Jul 27 2024 21:10 utc | 335 Yup, I wonder how many drones equal the destructive power of an FAB 1,500, or even a 152mm round? Don’t also forget rates of fire (rof), even the relative sluggardly T-x, with their auto-loaders can fire one round every six seconds, meaning a target has only travelled some 30m before another 1km per sec round is heading down range. This was my point about drones, they might have an accuracy edge (though most modern FCS’s are very accurate) but they cannot reach the fire density, or weight, required to stop a determined assault. Posted by: Newbie | Jul 27 2024 21:35 utc | 336 That’s a big difference. Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 27 2024 21:45 utc | 337 Peter AU1 | Jul 27 2024 6:07 utc | 314 Posted by: Cynic | Jul 27 2024 22:37 utc | 338 @Milites | Sat, 27 Jul 2024 17:06:00 GMT | 329
Are you sure about that? Most biases are done subconsciously, and I’ve read enough of your “analysis” on China to know where your biases are without you ever declaring your political allegiance. Everyone has biases, so that’s the issue. Posted by: James M. | Jul 27 2024 22:42 utc | 339 I’d read she did not provide or allow pain-killers even to those near death, because she reckoned that maximised suffering was morally good for people. As long as you admit to them, and how it colors your analysis, so people know where you are coming from. But spare us the holier than thou attitude in saying you don’t bring them into your analysis. I’ve read enough of your posts to know that’s not true. Posted by: Newbie | Jul 27 2024 23:14 utc | 341 10 years ago: Madonna of Gorlovka Posted by: scanalyse | Jul 27 2024 23:22 utc | 342 @ Peter AU1 | Jul 27 2024 6:07 utc | 314 Just noticed I posted on the wrong thread Posted by: Newbie | Jul 27 2024 23:42 utc | 344 Posted by: despondent | Jul 27 2024 15:31 utc | 326 Newbie@345…..as of late Russia uses the Iskander on a more regular basis, the new one with the cluster munitions is devastating, covers large area not just one spot. Not for subsurface targets, but anything on the surface gets fubar’d. Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 27 2024 23:59 utc | 346 abrogard | Jul 27 2024 23:35 utc | 344 Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 28 2024 0:19 utc | 347 @ Peter AU1 | Jul 28 2024 0:19 utc | 348 with the OT but what the heck personal stuff
The Helichrysum umbraculigerum is found mostly in South Africa, as I recall reading, but maybe you have it as well or can get it.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 28 2024 0:41 utc | 348 Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 27 2024 21:45 utc | 338 Posted by: Milites | Jul 28 2024 0:55 utc | 349 Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 28 2024 0:41 utc | 349 Posted by: Elber | Jul 28 2024 1:01 utc | 350 @Milites | Sun, 28 Jul 2024 00:55:00 GMT | 350
Well that doesn’t say much. The last war China fought was over forty years ago, so it’s kind of hard to “prove” their military capability. The only nation-states that have a “proven” military capability currently, wherein they can fight a sustained interstate war with a peer competitor are Russia and Ukraine. Posted by: James M. | Jul 28 2024 1:30 utc | 351 As for China, they have a theoretical military capability, not a practical or proven one, where’s the bias in that? Posted by: Newbie | Jul 28 2024 2:28 utc | 352 Posted by: Newbie | Jul 28 2024 2:28 utc | 353 Posted by: UWDude | Jul 28 2024 4:47 utc | 353 @ Peter Au Posted by: despondent | Jul 28 2024 4:57 utc | 355 Posted by: Cynic | Jul 27 2024 20:57 utc | 335
‘Mother’ Teresa – the real person behind the saintly facade Posted by: lex talionis | Jul 28 2024 6:23 utc | 356 306:
The truth is vastly different to the myth – Posted by: Kapyong | Jul 28 2024 7:33 utc | 357 Vitamin D3 is supposed help regulate the immune system and that may help marginally. I take it from time to time. Vitamins only help though if your body is low in them Posted by: rk | Jul 28 2024 8:38 utc | 358 despondent | Jul 28 2024 4:57 utc | 356 ad others offerring some thoughts – much apreacheated. Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 28 2024 12:10 utc | 359 The thread looks calm, let’s see if we can discuss some older stuff (almost 2 weeks ago) Posted by: Newbie | Jul 28 2024 12:24 utc | 360 Newbie | Jul 28 2024 12:24 utc | 361 Re: Posted by: Stonebird | Jul 28 2024 13:07 utc | 362
You are absolutely right. There is no point Putin negotiating anything at the moment with the clownshow in Washington DC – Biden, Harris, Blinken & Sullivan! Posted by: Julian | Jul 28 2024 13:42 utc | 362 Pokrovskoye direction: the liberation of most of Novoselovka Pervaya and the aggravation of the defense crisis of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Posted by: guest | Jul 28 2024 14:05 utc | 363 Vitamin D Posted by: oldhippie | Jul 28 2024 14:59 utc | 364 Well, Peter thinks I am in general an idiot but I’ll throw this out anyway. Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 28 2024 15:09 utc | 365 The SMO gives Putin time. He doesn’t need to negotiate yet. What is he “waiting” for? Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 28 2024 15:19 utc | 366 Stonebird | Jul 28 2024 13:07 utc | 362 Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 28 2024 15:25 utc | 367 Posted by: Julian | Jul 28 2024 13:42 utc | 363 Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 28 2024 15:38 utc | 368 Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 28 2024 15:19 utc | 367 Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 28 2024 15:43 utc | 369 https://t.me/vysokygovorit/16676
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 28 2024 15:56 utc | 370 What do you think that he does about Finland, Sweden, and Norway becoming new NATO vectors? Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 28 2024 16:42 utc | 371 I may be wrong but my feeling is that Putin and Xi will put Trump in his place. Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 28 2024 17:19 utc | 372 Peter AU and Vit D folks Posted by: Jerr | Jul 28 2024 23:46 utc | 373 @UWDude | Sun, 28 Jul 2024 04:47:00 GMT | 354
No, I have a bias toward evidence, empirical specifically. Every single conspiracy will eventually be exposed. Someone will always, always talk. You mention the “underground.” Look how many criminal gangs, cartels, and mafia families have been undone by rats. Show me hard evidence of this big, bad deep state conspiracy and I may rethink my position. Posted by: James M. | Jul 29 2024 7:44 utc | 374 @Newbie | Sun, 28 Jul 2024 02:28:00 GMT | 353
That’s evident. You should understand what A2/AD really means. One thing you also failed to mention is political will. Any war fought between China and the US will be over Taiwan. China sees Taiwan as part of it. They will go to great lengths to keep Taiwan a part of China. The US doesn’t care one way or the other about Taiwan. Posted by: James M. | Jul 29 2024 7:58 utc | 375 @HB_Norica | Sun, 28 Jul 2024 17:19:00 GMT | 373
This is absolutely correct, with the one caveat that Trump simply doesn’t care if he delivers or not. The real sell is himself being President (once again) so he can do deals that benefit himself. He could care less about his followers, once he’s elected. Posted by: James M. | Jul 29 2024 8:00 utc | 376 Posted by: James M. | Jul 29 2024 7:44 utc | 375 Posted by: watcher | Jul 29 2024 8:08 utc | 377 @watcher | Mon, 29 Jul 2024 08:08:00 GMT | 378
There’s a difference between declassifying specific information, and keeping it super-secret so no one ever knows about it. Bletchley Park was an open secret even during the war. All the details about it were not declassified until the 1970s – so only forty, not fifty years, after. Also, intelligence is compartmentalized, only certain people know certain things – this along with classifying information protects what is called sources and methods, the tradecraft of intelligence. Posted by: James M. | Jul 29 2024 23:02 utc | 378 @watcher | Mon, 29 Jul 2024 08:08:00 GMT | 378
I always like looking at Occam’s Razor to see if there is a simpler explanation to a problem or issue. So we have two competing scenarios on the Trump assassination attempt: Posted by: James M. | Jul 29 2024 23:29 utc | 379 @Newbie | Sun, 28 Jul 2024 02:28:00 GMT | 353 Posted by: Newbie | Jul 29 2024 23:44 utc | 380 @Newbie | Mon, 29 Jul 2024 23:44:00 GMT | 381
And what happened there? Lots of reforms to rein in the FBI and prevent the re-rise of a megalomaniac like Hoover. And the FBI under Hoover hardly had carte blanche to do whatever it wanted.
Yes, because a naval blockade at a distance against a land power, with access to markets by land (Russia, SE Asia, Central Asia) is going to work. What do you think the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is designed to do? Or BRICS for that matter? To circumvent US control. A blockade against China will have about as much success as sanctions against Russia.
I know Okinawa intimately well. It isn’t under US rule, it reverted back to Japan in the 1970s. There are a lot of American military personnel there, although within a few years about half the Marines are going to be rotated out to Guam, Hawaii, Australia, and the Philippines. The main issue for China is the Kadena air base where bombers can fly from. Posted by: James M. | Jul 30 2024 1:35 utc | 381 Posted by: oldhippie | Jul 28 2024 14:59 utc | 365 This is the difference between a 300 year old empire and a 3000 year old empire. The Chinese have done this before or had it done to them. They know that controlling things of real value trumps fiat. |
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