Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 25 2024 22:26 utc | 201
You really think they want to be in the position they are now? I don’t think any of them would have believed, at the start of the year, that they would now have ‘Trump poised for victory in 25’, or ‘Harris drafted in to prevent clean-sweep’ on their bingo cards.
Every time they ‘bent Trump over’ they revealed another card, be it weaponisation of the institutions, bias in the media, manipulation of the electoral system, or crucially, the nature of the controlled opposition. His victory was achieved by him just being in the way and refusing to budge, forcing them to escalate their response. Remember, the flaw most commentators make is that they focus on Trump, he’s just the weapon MAGA wields, and the bureaucratic beast is only just realising, too late, that every time it took a victory lap, it was also bleeding from a new wound.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 25 2024 23:40 utc | 204

Eighthman | Jul 25 2024 22:48 utc | 204
Patience is all that is required. 12 months from now and I suspect we will be looking at a much changed picture.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 25 2024 23:56 utc | 206

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 25 2024 22:26 utc | 201
DJT went on a very public ‘goodwill mission’ to the USSR in 1985. IE he was the bagman for the CIA in much of the late 80’s corruption of soviet officials. If you think he is not just another Soros or Hughes type intelligence asset/client I have these sweet NFT’s to sell you.

Posted by: badjoke | Jul 26 2024 0:07 utc | 208

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 26 2024 0:09 utc | 210
Yeah but those people who were the first to add the Coriolis effect to their artillery tables and have a 6 year degree for artillery officers cannot beat out the officers with a 4 year degree in underwater basket weaving and a 6 week course in NATO artillery school at planning in an artillery war. Duh everybody knows this they say it on CNN.

Posted by: badjoke | Jul 26 2024 0:17 utc | 210

Milites | Jul 25 2024 23:40 utc | 205
This realist/nationals faction in the US – What we are seeing there is the resurgence of the cold war warrior typos. A dangerous foe capable of designing and implementing strategies. Kissinger era stuff.
But much has changed since those cold war days. The family has always been the basic building block of societies and nations. Back then, America still had the family. It has been a long time in the west since the family has been placed in a psition of importance or support.
The destruction of that reach its zenith with Biden ‘diversity’. A homosexual living out his fantasies and a female naval officer was placed in charge of the physical and mental health of nation.
What has been done, cannot be undone without a great deal of hardship. The vast proportion of society in the west now has now foundations, no standard to measure anything by. They live in a synthetic world, a world of Hubris.
But the major problem is not just collapse of governance but collapse of society as a whole.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 26 2024 0:22 utc | 212

@Peter AU1 | Fri, 26 Jul 2024 00:09:00 GMT | 210

Russia can hit anywhere throughout the depth of Ukraine and nato doesn’t do defense. On the frontlines Russia has the artillery and flying bombs

I said nothing about firepower. I said parity of forces. Force (military): a body (as of troops or ships) assigned to a military purpose.

Posted by: James M. | Jul 26 2024 0:29 utc | 214

Posted by: James M. | Jul 25 2024 23:46 utc | 206
############
Bringing this back to Ukraine for a moment, part of me wants Trump to win the election so that Ansarallah, Hezbollah, China, Iran, and Russia can continue to demonstrate to the world how ineffective and impotent American hard and soft power is today. Putin may talk to Trump but he will not trust Trump.
Trump will be gone in 4 years, and as with every American administration change, the new people spend months undoing what the last guy did, regardless of whether it was good or bad. It’s a point of ego-driven partisan pride. Putin is not stupid enough to have spent all of those Russian lives to make a deal that will be worthless as soon as it is signed.
We’re not even talking about the threats that Finland and Sweden now pose similar to what Ukraine once was. Threats that Trump would have to remove completely by abolishing NATO. There is no chance the MIC allows Trump to do that. They will get someone who can shoot straight this time.
Putting aside Trump’s flaws, it has been my opinion for many years that so-called democracies are unable to reform at the ballot box BY DESIGN.
I don’t blame Trump for campaigning on what people want to hear. That’s smart business. That he cannot and likely will not fulfill much of it is a kind of tragicomedy.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 26 2024 0:42 utc | 216

Russian Gas
ghiwen | Jul 25 2024 9:21 utc | 118
With the update re gas supply Russia EU via Ukraine.
Thanks.
The progressive headlines gave me a chuckle as the early hubris fades to humble pie …
And Azerbaijan steps up.
Pashinyan of Albania has backed the wrong side.
Your post prompted me to have another dig around in the Albania, Turkiye, Azerbaijan, Iran reporting.
Seems the U$ has military drills (Eagle Partner 2024) with Albania, and encouraged yet another border shooting/ skirmish.
As if the U$ isn’t sufficiently distracted with internal politics and Ukraine, but no, gotta stir up more shit in Albania…. With a war against Iran of course being what Israel wants.
https://caliber.az/en/post/256288/
Posted by: Ed4 | Jul 25 2024 19:58 utc | 182
Romania v Russian drones.
>… “Wreckage of Russian drones found in Romania following overnight attack on Ukraine”
25 July

Romania has found the wreckage of Russian Shahed drones after attack on Ukraine on the night of July 24 to 25.
A military source said that Romanian soldiers were sent to search for Russian drones in Tulcea county, Caliber.Az reports, citing Romanian media sources.
They found metal parts that could be components of used Russian drones in the Plauru neighbourhood in the Danube Delta.
Overnight, Russia launched another attack on Ukraine using 38 attack drones. The targets of the attack were infrastructure facilities in the central and southern regions of the country.
Ukrainian air defence forces managed to shoot down 25 of the 38 attack drones, also known as Shaheds. The fate of three drones remained unknown after crossing the border into Romania. As a result of the attack, a fire broke out in the Izmail district of the Odessa region, and two people were injured.
We would like to point out that Romania declared an air alert for the second night in a row due to Russian drones flying into the country’s territory.

https://caliber.az/en/post/256505/

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 26 2024 0:51 utc | 218

I guess they are suicidal. Videos out there now of them doing it. It is a one time deal or will they keep it up.
Posted by: Ed4 | Jul 26 2024 1:42 utc | 220
Read Melaleuca just above, if they were shooting drones that strayed inside of Romania airspace then we’ré Gold
One side apologizes for the shitty navigation, the other for being forced to (naturally) dhoot It down

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 26 2024 1:47 utc | 220

Posted by: Ed4 | Jul 26 2024 1:48 utc | 222
############
The Russian reconnaissance improvements coupled with Iskander strikes are taking out weapons depots and trains as quickly as they appear.
Please NATO make more shells. Make millions and millions more. Then stack them up in locations that partisans can report to the RuMOD by means the West still hasn’t figured out how to intercept.
NATO usually houses its ammunition in the same places it builds command centers so when the Iskanders land, ammunition goes up and scarce officers and drone operators are escorted to the afterlife. The Russians are merciful and efficient.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 26 2024 2:15 utc | 222

@Newbie | Fri, 26 Jul 2024 00:46:00 GMT | 218

Unless you have the worst blind firing… you have a high kill ratio

It’s quite possible to have blind firing. Why keep firing artillery if you do have a high kill ratio? And if there is such a high kill ratio why do Russian infantry and armor still run into resistance from the UAF when they try to advance? There should be gaping holes in the Ukrainian defense.
All we have to go on with the 5:1 kill ratio is Putin’s word. Who, of course, has no reason to exaggerate. The only modern interstate wars where I’ve seen a kill ratio discrepancy greater than five to one are the Gulf War, which was easily ten to one and could have been a hundred to one, the Six-Day and Yom Kippur wars, and maybe the Winter War. All these wars were over in a matter of a few days to three months.
The Ukraine war doesn’t match those wars, it is a war of attrition. That means Ukraine still has plenty of soldiers at the front. So either the Russians aren’t killing as many Ukrainians as they say they are, or the Ukrainians can refill their ranks just as quickly as they lose troops. Given Ukraine’s demographic issues, I still suspect the former.

Posted by: James M. | Jul 26 2024 2:39 utc | 224

@ James M. | Jul 26 2024 2:39 utc | 225

So either the Russians aren’t killing as many Ukrainians as they say they are, or the Ukrainians can refill their ranks just as quickly as they lose troops.

This is a high intensity low density attrition conflict. The country is gigantic, allowing reserve troops the luxury to spread out. Few troops are stationed near contact line spread in smaller pockets still. Despite medium and long range strike advantage, it takes time to kill soldiers so dispersed.

Posted by: boneless | Jul 26 2024 2:59 utc | 226

I am curious to knowif the Hungarian population suppports the slaughter in Ukr? They have a 100,000 Hungarian minority, fully incorporated in the army too, there.
And if not why doesnt Orban exit the EU?

Posted by: Minaa | Jul 26 2024 3:04 utc | 228

My above post 230.
I think there is very little possibility in Russia spending any money in repairing or rebuilding nordstream type pipelines. They were about direct sales to Europe with the only cost being fees to countries where pipelines traversed. Where nordstream ran through international waters – no fees.
Europe will have to purchase Russian energy for the foreseeable future, but that will all be through middlemen with the associated middleman markup. Europe can kiss its economic arse goodbye. They have blown it.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 26 2024 3:25 utc | 230

@boneless | Fri, 26 Jul 2024 02:59:00 GMT | 227

The country is gigantic, allowing reserve troops the luxury to spread out. Few troops are stationed near contact line spread in smaller pockets still.

So troops that are dispersed are more difficult to kill, meaning the kill ratios are not that great between Ukraine and Russia. That backs up my point that a 5:1 or higher ratio of KIA between them is difficult to believe.

Posted by: James M. | Jul 26 2024 4:05 utc | 232

In 1942, the US did a bombing raid on Tokyo. U.S. propaganda victory; U.S. and Allies’ morale improved, Japanese industries and morale damaged. Total loss of U.S. strike force.
The same applies today. Take a squadron of F-16’s. Convert them to drones. Accept loss of the planes in return for doubling the range and scoring a propaganda victory. Raise morale in Ukraine. Cause fear and doubt in Russia about the ability of Putin to defend Russia. Prep the press in advance so a single message goes out.

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 26 2024 4:32 utc | 234

Are they all “deep state”? Or are they just normal folk who dedicate their lives to public service?
Posted by: James M. | Jul 26 2024 0:40 utc | 216
Deep State. The karenocracy got hold of vast majority of government hr, and has been purging political opponents since 2015. They are ruthless because they feel they are righteous. The needle rapists also instituted another purge in government, leaving mostly only compliant tools.
Very few uncorrupted bureaucrats left in deep state. D or R, government workers hate Trump, because his rhetoric holds the undertones of the swelling hatred of government in the USA.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 26 2024 4:54 utc | 236

Shawarma from the Armed Forces of Ukraine: finely chopped and baked!
The tactics of a thousand cuts of the Russian army turn the front into noodles (text version) by Marat Khairullin

Forgive me for such culinary associations, but at the end of last summer I wrote about the tactics of a thousand cuts that our army had switched to, but I couldn’t even imagine the end result – today the Ukrainian Armed Forces are bleeding everywhere. And the biggest problem is that this happens constantly; small cuts do not have time to heal before new ones form. As a result, the front disintegrates into local areas that are not connected with each other.
Let me remind you that the essence of the Ukrop strategy is the idea of ​​deep defense, which was based on the fact that at any moment they could transfer reserves. At the same time, it was assumed that ours would act in the style of Bakhmut or a counterattack – breaking in one single direction with all their might. This would allow the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to keep the most combat-ready units in the breakthrough directions. The AFU never expected that a breakthrough would happen everywhere – how do they distrubute reserves in such a situation? For the time being, they still tried to move them back and forth, but it is already obvious that each time it becomes harder and harder.
If in Volchansk the Armed Forces of Ukraine somehow adjusted their reserves to stop the situation at the end of the second week, in New York they were able to do this only in the fourth. And this week we see several key breakthroughs at once – ours reached the Konstantinovka-Ugledar highway, large territories came under our control in Krasnogorovka, primarily the park and stadium. In fact, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are now clinging to their last position in the city in the area of ​​the northern exit, that is, they are holding on to the only escape route.
Add to this an unexpected breakthrough of our treasured Slavyanka (1st Slavic Brigade) in Progress. Next, add a breakthrough into the center of New York, crossing the Seversky Donets – Donbass canal in the west of Chasov Yar, and finally, a serious advance near Seversk, where several important villages came under our control at once, followed by advance in the Kupyansk direction. And so on.
Just a couple of weeks ago, such breakthroughs in any one direction would have been a reason for sudden movements by the AFU. Ukrop politicians, especially Fuhrer Zelensky, would hold a meeting of their headquarters and promise to kill their generals if they did not eliminate the breakthrough. Syrsky would have abandoned a bunch of people, drowned the breakthrough in blood, and then reported that it had been stopped.
This was the algorithm of public actions for the Ukrainian leadership, in addition to the actual transfer of reserves to the attack directions.
And now there is silence. Please note that ours famously took Urozhainoe – actually a very sensitive point for Ukrop propaganda, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces are silent. Previously, this (silence) was unacceptable for the Ukrainians.
Why? Because they signaled to the West – “master, look, it’s okay, now we’ll win everything back, we’re holding, we’re holding the Russians, the main thing is you, master, don’t abandon us, keep paying.” That’s how it all worked out. And suddenly there was silence. But most importantly, this week clearly showed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces no longer have the strength to eliminate all the breakthroughs. That is, apparently, we are witnessing a turning point in real time.
The front is turning into a set of such local, autonomous sections, each of which will now be on its own, and in the event of a breakthrough, they have nowhere to wait for support. For now, of course, manpower and ammunition will continue to be supplied centrally, but there will be unable to effectively provide support through the transfer of combat units withdrawn from other directions.
That is, our tactics of small cuts really turned the AFU into shawarma, which now only needs to be finely chopped and baked.
The baking stage will consist of destroying the most combat-ready parts of the dill (the AFU), abandoned without support.
Let me remind you that July is breaking all records for this indicator – strictly on average, 2000 AFU per day are put out of action (can be tracked by the available statistics).
Then the stage of rapid degradation of the centralized supply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will begin. But let’s talk about this separately sometime.
In the meantime, it’s worth paying attention to one more fact – this week marked the peak of the heat in the region. Ours slightly reduced the overall pace of advance, but literally the next day, as the heat subsided, they immediately rushed forward in several directions at once. That is, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not given a minute to rest.
https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/shawarma-from-the-armed-forces-of

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 26 2024 5:18 utc | 238

Doing a good business.

The Illicit Flow of Technology to Russia Goes Through This Hong Kong Address
Defying sanctions, Russia has obtained nearly $4 billion in restricted chips since the war began in Ukraine. Many were shipped through a cluster of shell companies in Hong Kong.
From a nondescript seventh-floor office at 135 Bonham Strand near Hong Kong’s financial district, at least four companies are operating with a shadowy mission: facilitating the illicit trade of Western technology to Russia.
Shell companies at that address have acquired millions of restricted chips and sensors for military technology companies in Russia, many of which have been placed under sanctions by the U.S. government, according to an examination by The New York Times.
The companies have names like Olax Finance and Rikkon Holding. Their office, with a faded 704 number on the door, appears unoccupied. No one answered during a visit last month. An ad for air-conditioning hung in the crack of the door.
…
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, nearly $4 billion of restricted chips have poured into Russia from more than 6,000 companies, including those at Hong Kong’s 135 Bonham Strand, according to a Times analysis of Russian customs data, corporate records, domain registrations and sanctions data. The analysis examined nearly 800,000 shipments of restricted electronic goods into Russia since mid-2021.
more ==> https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/25/technology/russia-sanctions-chips.html

It is unsurprising that dealers are willing to take advantage of trade with Russia. Increasing the risk premium with sanctions will only make the trade more profitable.

Posted by: too scents | Jul 26 2024 5:36 utc | 240

The same applies today. Take a squadron of F-16’s. Convert them to drones. Accept loss of the planes in return for doubling the range and scoring a propaganda victory. Raise morale in Ukraine. Cause fear and doubt in Russia about the ability of Putin to defend Russia. Prep the press in advance so a single message goes out.

Pursuit of such propaganda ‘victories’ has lost Ukraine the war. Seems Western strategists are high on their own shit, theyve decided they can imagineer their way to victory. Truly imbecilic plan given circumstances. I call this a ‘Sullivan special’ for the dipshit who uses these regularly.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 26 2024 6:04 utc | 242

At some point the goofballs, war criminals, yes men and grasping cowards are going to have to admit defeat in Ukraine, or blow up the world. These fucking schmucks really don’t know when theyre beaten, do they? The Russian Federation will happily continue to drive inflation through the recycling of Western military technology right until everyone in the West is living in cardboard boxes. So time to get real you insipid fuckheads.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 26 2024 6:10 utc | 244

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 26 2024 4:32 utc | 235
The QF-16 is already a thing in production from boneyard block 10’s and 20’s. Lots of those that can be sent. However the RCS on them is quite large and they would have a harder time entering the airspace of the RF than say a a modern ALCM and we already know storm shadow missiles have a rather high interception rate.

Posted by: badjoke | Jul 26 2024 7:31 utc | 246

badjoke | Jul 26 2024 7:31 utc | 247
I suspect in the next few month we will see the great display of fireworks for the closing ceremony of the US/Russia wargames. 1st nato army destroyed – 1-0 for Russia. 2nd and 3rd nato armies destroyed. So at the moment Russia has one the first three round in what appears will be a four round contest. I cant see the end result as anything other than Russia winning at four nil.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 26 2024 7:42 utc | 248

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 26 2024 7:42 utc | 249
Expect multiple cheap below the belt shots from team USA and its underlings.

Posted by: jpc | Jul 26 2024 7:50 utc | 250

I’m wondering if there are any other nations besides the English(-speaking Anglosphere) that buy into the ‘cheese-eating surrender monkeys’ malarkey, notwithstanding Anglo-American influence.
Posted by: joey_n | Jul 26 2024 7:40 utc | 248

In Russia they are called “frog-eaters” and the disdain is based upon Russia’s own experience. Well-known historical exemptions are respected though.

Posted by: Poslan1 | Jul 26 2024 8:04 utc | 252

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 26 2024 5:18 utc | 239
I was writing about Ukraine suffering from a ‘death by a thousand tactical assaults’ in early 22-23.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 26 2024 8:08 utc | 254
Good comments both!
Everyone has missed the fact this conflict is on a 1000 km plus front.
It’s a truly huge operation area.
Totally overlooked at the msm consumer level.

Posted by: jpc | Jul 26 2024 8:30 utc | 254

Posted by: badjoke | Jul 26 2024 7:31 utc | 247
Thank you. There’s a $50 million contract dated Nov. 23, 2021, for converting F-16s to QF-16s. Could QF-16s be used as radar decoys, so Russia spends its missiles on downing drones?

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 26 2024 8:44 utc | 256

southfront.press/hungary-and-slovakia-react-to-ukrainian-hostility/
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 26 2024 5:22 utc | 240
Again with this topic… Did Hungary or Slovakia veto anything right before or at the moment when Ukr cut the pipe oil? If they were, what was it?
Because it looks like there was no veto active, so this “Budapest has announced that it will block EU aid funds to Kiev until the neo-Nazi regime resumes the transit of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia” is not what it seems to be.
Either Hungary and Slovakia are being punished by EU for their peace talks on Ukr (especially Orban for his trips to Russia and China), in which case it means EU considers 6.5bn veto as useless and does not care. If they do care, their veto can be also canceled if Ursula says so, EU won’t collapse and they will not leave EU because they’re hostages, they can’t even eat bread without EU’s help.
Or Hungary and Slovakia want to find an excuse to approve 6.5bn but make it look like they don’t want to “what can we do? we need the oil! we’ll approve 6.5bn as soon as Zeli enables the pipe again”. So they don’t get anything, they had the oil before, but the 6.5bn reach the destination. What a good “deal”!!!
Hungary, Slovakia and Romania keep the dancers in Kiev dancing, right? Do they get paid or it’s for free? Who is paying for it? It doesn’t matter what they say, what thingy they veto for a few days, in the end they are a part of war as much as anyone else from EU, even more if the energy is given for free.

Posted by: rk | Jul 26 2024 9:01 utc | 258

unimperator | Jul 26 2024 9:14 utc | 260
Due to reading them for some time now, I have found the Legitimate and Resident tg channels the most accurate sources of information as to the internal workings and doings of 404.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 26 2024 9:30 utc | 260

Peter AU1, Milites replied to you “.. I’ll not talk about Israel as my views, having lived in the country, are diametrically opposed to yours. ..” : Milites | Jul 25 2024 19:54 utc | 180
That should be a warning to you and others here that Milites’s posts are not worth wasting much time on.

Posted by: Ново З | Jul 26 2024 9:57 utc | 262

Ново З | Jul 26 2024 9:57 utc | 263
It did ring the warning bells. But his analysis and so forth are mostly realist perspective rather than ideology based.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 26 2024 10:05 utc | 264

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 26 2024 5:22 utc | 240

Budapest has announced that it will block EU aid funds to Kiev until the neo-Nazi regime resumes the transit of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia.
The Hungarian ultimatum was announced by Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto.
“As long as this issue is not resolved by Ukraine, everyone should forget about the payment of the €6.5 billion of the European Peace Facility compensation for arms transfers (…) Ukraine’s decision to not allow Lukoil to transit oil supplies through Ukraine poses a fundamental threat to the security of energy supplies to Hungary and Slovakia (…) (Ukraine’s move is) unacceptable and incomprehensible,” Szijjarto said
…
Another important point presented by Szijjarto was the fact that Hungary and Slovakia have contributed significantly to Ukraine’s energy stability amid the war….
In June, for example, Hungary provided 42 percent of Ukraine’s electricity consumption,
Poland, which is the Ukrainian regime’s biggest supporter in the current war, has already spoken out condemning Hungary’s actions, considering the act a “disappointment”.
“>https://southfront.press/hungary-and-slovakia-react-to-ukrainian-hostility/

Why don’t you find out more about a specific topic — like the EPF ???
THIS IS NOT about money for ukr !!! and it was already blocked before this issue appears
it’s about money for EU/NATO countries
as with your mention of the “disappointment” of Poland !!!

On July 10, at a NATO summit in Washington, Polish foreign minister Radosław Sikorski told reporters that “Hungary is abusing our trust” and called the Hungarian stance “unfriendly and hostile”. He confirmed that the money blocked by the country was intended to fund the modernisation of Poland’s armed forces.

EPF = e.g. in extreme cases such as compensation for unusable strela missles form germany
and it’s not about russian oil — at the moment “only” about Lukoil-oil
in addition to the electricity supplies from hungary + slovakia, both also supply fuel to ukr
if you are going to speculate, then like this —> no oil-transit through ukr = no fuel for ukr
in the end, this comment AND the source shows that it is better not to trust such sources !!!

Posted by: ghiwen | Jul 26 2024 10:09 utc | 266

youtube, Scott Ritter and Andrei Martyanov.
Transcript starting at 13:36 in the video:

I just wrote something that talked about the shift in the Russian mindset.
Just over the course of a year Russia’s becoming not just harder but …
There used to be empathy for the ukrainians.
There used to be like “man, we don’t want to do this”.
Right now the Russians I’m talking to here are just like “kill them, we don’t care anymore”
The day of feeling sorry for the ukrainians is long past.
Russia’s no longer feeling sorry for Ukraine.
Ukraine is going to get what it deserves, in the mind of the Russians.
And this is a mentality that the West hasn’t grasped on to.
When Russia used to show empathy, I think the West said “That’s weakness”.
The West still somehow labors under the the the notion that Russia is weak, that Putin is desperate.
There’s no desperation on the part of the Russians.
There is just a very Stone Cold determination to get this job done.

My transcript is imperfect; but I hope it gets the essence of what is being said.

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 26 2024 10:44 utc | 268

57 vehicles attacked, less than a quarter were destroyed/damaged, Evan after an approach over open ground of over 1000 metres. Either the Russian point defence ECM is improving, or they are limiting the number of drones able to operate. Either way, if this is the case, then everything changes in the SMO.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 26 2024 11:13 utc | 270
That metric is still awful, assuming a 80% survival per km you lose 50% on a 3km advance 80% on 7kms and 90% for a 10km push
Sorry but it doesn’t look good

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 26 2024 11:21 utc | 270

in todays nazi-outlet welt.de , we get the news that the eu is “finally” giving stolen i mean frozen russian interest to the ukraine. and in finest axel springer speak, i present you the headline, untranslated:

EU gibt Zinsen eingefrorener Russen-Gelder frei

i did that because “impartial translators” like deepl etc would give you this as the translation:

EU releases interest on frozen Russian funds

there direct translation from the german part would not be “russian runds”, but rather a more derogatory “money from russians”.
whenever the nazi-outlet welt.de gets a chance, they step this low to “assert their dominance”.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jul 26 2024 11:28 utc | 272

Just commented on milites numbers not being in the good news category.
90% attrition @ 10kms ,by his numbers, is not good

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 26 2024 11:49 utc | 274

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 26 2024 11:49 utc | 275
If it stays linear throughout the conflict. And it could occur in certain type of specific scenarios, where attacker must with a high probability use only certain pre-known attack vectors. This most likely isn’t the case.
If RUAF can locate AFU drone operators and fire support and can use long range fires to destroy them, then it won’t be available for the next 10km, etc. I don’t know what sort of solutions they have for locating FPV operators, but supposedly there is some new sort of radio locating devices coming that will be able to pinpoint their location.
Novomikhalovka area is defended by 79th brigade which was characterized as the best remaining unit.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 26 2024 11:59 utc | 276

That metric is still awful, assuming a 80% survival per km you lose 50% on a 3km advance 80% on 7kms and 90% for a 10km push
Posted by: Newbie | Jul 26 2024 11:21 utc | 271

This linear calculation makes all your previous estimates of Russian losses rather dubious.

Posted by: Poslan1 | Jul 26 2024 12:52 utc | 278

The duct taped DJI off the shelf drones with RPG rounds are not a panacea, and are only a bandaid on a gaping chest wound. UAF is done, stick a fork in ’em.
Meanwhile I read in the Guardian, one of the world’s foremost Empire pf Lies rags, a bunch of hopeful idiocy from finance ministers. How are the narrative managers going to cover this loss? They’ve got their populations convinced Russia is losing this war, about as inverted a view as is possible. Russia is winning the kinetic war against NATO at the same time it’s winning the economic war against the Empire. You’d think they’d start to try to bring in some facts because their threadbare credibility is going to need mending to prevent revolution.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 26 2024 13:23 utc | 280

unimperator@260….they left, they could have been mauled by the Russians…..they were not. Sounds like someone reached an attainable agreement at the LOCC.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 26 2024 13:43 utc | 282

Look a couple of points to be made here regarding some recent posts:
– Berlin was nearly totally devastated before the Russians even approached the city in April/May ’45. The USAAF 8th AF and UK Bomber Command had launched numerous one thousand plus bomber raids on the city in late 1944 and 1945, some even targeted rail stations packed full of war refugees fleeing west from the Russian advance (obvious war crime there, but whose counting). So the idea that Russians destroyed the city is false. All the Russians did was re-arrange the rubble, and use their infantry to fight in the ruins of the capital city.
– The F16 B and C’s sent to the UAF are basically junk. They are outmoded models without modern avionics. UAF pilot training has been a huge problem, and has not been resolved. The US is not going give UAF top of the line model F16’s with advanced avionics because they do not wish those devices to either fall into RF hands or to be sold on the black market by UAF scammers.
– Until the Ukrainians reopen the pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia, there will be no more EU bucks flowing to Kieve scammers. That pipeline also supplies Serbia by the way, how convenient, a failing regime in Kieve still doing the bidding of the globalist neo cons in DC by punishing Hungary, Slovakia (as if attempting to assassinate the PM was not enough), and Serbia. The deep state globalist efforts have at least for the moment been check mated. Stay tuned.
– Seizing RF overseas assets, just not the investment income from the held assets is a bridge too far for the EU and US. This irresponsible action will if implemented have devastating impacts on the world financial system. RF can easily counterattack. Expect mysterious cyber attacks on the world financial centers if the incredibly dumb option is used by the EU and US. Why risk the world financial system for a fascist regime now in the final stages of life support. Pull the plug for gosh sakes, its over.

Posted by: Tobias Cole | Jul 26 2024 14:07 utc | 284

Russian militaries mistakes and inconsistent performance, sometimes on display.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 26 2024 11:13 utc | 270
That can be seen at the start of many wars throughout history. The term is ‘becoming battle hardened”. New tactics and weapons are used in most new wars so for a peacetime military with the basic rock solid known and reliable, the have to go through the process of becoming battle hardened and that includes officers who may perform well in exercises but fail in actual combat.
I believe the thing to look at is underlying military doctrine, the culture, morale of the people and so forth.
The thing about this conflict is that Russia has put it onto economic cruise – as in running a marathon with least energy expenditure.
It is up against the combined power as in economic and manufacturing power) of the combined west. Some warriors are holding the barbarians at the gates and Russia’s civilian economy is greatly prospering.
What I am seeing here is unlike anything I have read about in the past. As Bhadrakumar says, Putin is a sophisticated thinker.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 26 2024 14:19 utc | 286

Have you never looked at a map?!?
Posted by: Julian | Jul 26 2024 14:50 utc | 288
—
The ultimate resolution of the conflict requires that Russia control the Danube Delta. That means the Odessa Oblast must come under Russian administration.

Posted by: too scents | Jul 26 2024 15:02 utc | 288

Please read the exchange “IF MILITES numbers were right, they wouldn’t be good”

Assume the numbers are right, with your simple multiplication method you might as well calculate by the hour – if during the first hour of Feb 24 2022 advance, the losses were 1 per cent, that means that in 100 hours since the beginning of the SMO all the troops should be lost.

Posted by: Poslan1 | Jul 26 2024 15:38 utc | 290

Ukraine Weekly Update, 26th July 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-32b

Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Jul 26 2024 16:16 utc | 292

Posted by: Poslan1 | Jul 26 2024 17:07 utc | 294
Last answer I’ll give you , re-read if needed
1. Milites mentioned a 1km charge and “losing less than a quarter”
2. O.8 exp number of kms snd you get the attrition level
Practical exercise if you didn’t get it so far, at even better odds (0.84 instead of 0.8)
Take a revolver and put just one bullet in the chamber
Spin and pull the trigger to your head, at 4!clicks you have a 50/50 chance of having the general idea (and a bullet ) entering yout hesd

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 26 2024 17:25 utc | 294

Last answer I’ll give you , re-read if needed
1. Milites mentioned a 1km charge and “losing less than a quarter”
2. O.8 exp number of kms snd you get the attrition level

And I repeat my question: do you calculate the overall Russian losses by simply multiplying the first week SMO numbers by overall 120 weeks that passed since?

Posted by: Poslan1 | Jul 26 2024 18:28 utc | 296

It seems to be whistling past the extensive graveyards to pretend that Ukranian losses are anything other than an order of magnitude or two higher than those of the Russian Federation and that the trend is in the wrong direction for Ukraine.
This obscene bean counting of human souls I imagine Mephistopheles and the court of Hell present as a bunch of soulless junior devils with the faces of Maerican leadership profess how their devious effort was successful because it killed >X number of Russians.
Some truly short sighted accounting. The Empire of Lies stands exposed as merest crude butchers. While they could forgive her murderousness they will never forgive her foolishness.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 26 2024 19:15 utc | 298

Posted by: too scents | Jul 25 2024 17:37 utc | 166
“He doesn’t care about anything other than himself.”
Doesn’t that describe most of us here? Including yourself? If you read the forum you’ll realize that you’re not talking to a room full of Mother Teresa.

Posted by: Paranaense | Jul 26 2024 19:25 utc | 300