Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 24, 2024

Ukraine Open Thread 2024-175

News & views related to the war in Ukraine ...

Posted by b on July 24, 2024 at 14:16 UTC | Permalink

Comments
next page »

The statistics on destroyed Ukrainian artillery are in the range of 20-30 a day. This looks to be unsustainable. No matter how many FPVs Ukraine has, without artillery they will not be able to conduct offensive operations. Once the Russians deploy more effective anti-drone measures, the defeat of Ukraine will follow quickly. The noises Ukraine is now making about negotiations reflect the military realities sinking in.

Posted by: HH | Jul 24 2024 14:33 utc | 1

With byedum gone, the Kiev pianist is left twisting in the wind.
Biden’s befuddled gaff, when he said Putin was the President of Ukraine May be prescient….

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 24 2024 14:44 utc | 2

With byedum gone, the Kiev pianist is left twisting in the wind.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 24 2024 14:44 utc | 2

---

It is in Trump's interest to continue the war though November so that he can "solve" it with some transaction or other.

Solving Ukraine is a major plank of Trump's platform. Ukraine folding before the election deprives him of that sale.

Posted by: too scents | Jul 24 2024 14:49 utc | 3

Posted by: HH | Jul 24 2024 14:33 utc | 1

From what I understand the Russians won't go on a major offensive until the Donbas fortifications built since 2014 have been breached.

The current Russian strategy is a 2 phase campaign where the first phase is not to take ground but to reduce Ukraines ability to wage war and the second is an exploitation phase in the form of a combined arms armoured assault with the objective to take as much ground as quickly as possible, siege cities etc.

They started this operation in February 2022 and what they teach in military schools this phase of an attritional campaign takes 2 - 2.5 years to complete. Those figures are academic and don't take into account the strength of the defences that have to be breached or the amount of aid the opposing army receives.

Russia are very good at knocking the shit out of an army with standoff weapons but Ukraine has built one of the strongest defensive lines in history over the last 10 years and get unprecedented aid from the west so all bets are off as to when the second phase kicks off. You can pour a lot of concrete in 10 years.

In the mean time Russia keeps building up their reserve armies for the exploitation phase which at present are thought to be around 300k strong.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 24 2024 14:52 utc | 4

It will make no difference who wins the November election. Both Trump and Harris will go on with the war. Harris, it means, the puppeteers of Harris, will pressure the EU in order to get some discharge for the US. Trump's will do exactly the same thing. Trump is promising a lot of shit, but the chances he can end the war one way or another are the same chances he has to fix the descomposition of Boeing: none at all. In fact, Vance is far more aggressive against Iran than the Biden's botchers, I cannot understand why are so many people thinking he is a good pick. I am afraid, if Trump wins, he will be "retired" some way. This guy, Vance, has to me a dejà vu like Truman or LBJ.

Posted by: Worried one | Jul 24 2024 14:59 utc | 5

Back in 2022 I was reading that Russia was continuing to fulfil its gas supply contracts and continuing to supply gas via Ukraine.
IIRC the contracts expire in Dec 2024.
Has anyone seen anything about extending or renewing or negotiating news contracts?

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 24 2024 15:10 utc | 6

Ukraine folding before the election deprives him of that sale.

Posted by: too scents | Jul 24 2024 14:49 utc | 3

He'd rather say how poorly the biden administration left ukraine than to sellthe inevitable concessions to RF

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 24 2024 15:12 utc | 7

If Ukraine folds before the election that would knock a huge plank out of Trump's platform...
Posted by: too scents | Jul 24 2024 11:14 utc | 514, from the previous topic.


It is in Trump's interest to continue the war though November so that he can "solve" it with some transaction or other.

Solving Ukraine is a major plank of Trump's platform. Ukraine folding before the election deprives him of that sale.

Posted by: too scents | Jul 24 2024 14:49 utc | 3, in this topic.


I fully agree!

And I would say more: it is not only in Trump's interest to give up on Ukraine now, but it is also in his interest for it to suffer major setbacks by November. Europe, on the other hand, wants the opposite! And China? I don't know...

Posted by: Elber | Jul 24 2024 15:14 utc | 8

Posted by: Elber | Jul 24 2024 15:14 utc | 8

Erratum: And I would say but: it is not only in Trump's interest NOT TO GIVE UP on Ukraine now...

Posted by: Elber | Jul 24 2024 15:18 utc | 9

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/131108

Good news, the Turks detained the perpetrator of the terrorist attack that blew up a car in Moscow today, as a result of which 2 people were injured. Negotiations are underway to extradite the detainee to Russia.

Earlier, the director of the FSB Bortnikov said that the Russian and Turkish special services are cooperating on this issue. The Turks had previously extradited terrorists to Russia.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/131109

Footage of the detention by Turkish special services of a terrorist who blew up a car in Moscow. The character's name is Evgeny Serebryakov.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 24 2024 15:24 utc | 10

Now the real problem is going to be money. Europe will not have any. Germany cut funding in half, but its economy is heading for the ditch and it was the money bags for the WHOLE EU. France is no better. UK has left. So where is the cash coming from?
Posted by: watcher | Jul 24 2024 11:18 utc | 515, from the previous topic.

They are going to steal private assets from EU Citizens. See the new 'asset registry'.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 24 2024 12:06 utc |

Okay, the money problem is solved! What about resources, energy, raw materials, hardware? Russia and China are the flagship of the Heartland (Halford Mackinder). In a multipolar world, Europe's ideal place would be next to Russia... but they even destroyed the NS...

Posted by: Elber | Jul 24 2024 15:40 utc | 11

"Rheinmetall received an order for the construction of a ammunition plant in Ukraine from the government of Ukraine. It is expected that the production of ammunition at this enterprise in Ukraine will begin within 24 months. The cost will be betwen 100 to 500 million euros"

Posted by: rk | Jul 24 2024 8:22 utc | 497

Terms are payment in full ... in cash ... up front and insurance for anyone and anything not Ukrainian on site before a spade hits the ground.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 24 2024 15:45 utc | 12

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 24 2024 15:24 utc | 10

I searched for "Evgeny Serebryakov" here on the Net, and some aliens appeared...

Posted by: Elber | Jul 24 2024 15:47 utc | 13

The person who committed a car bombing in Moscow was arrested by Turkish police. Negotiations of extradition are ongoing.

https://x.com/Zlatti_71/status/1816132849147191680

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 24 2024 15:49 utc | 14

From Twitter

@Zlatti_71
🇷🇺 Putin holds a meeting on the socio-economic development of the new constituent entities of the Russian Federation

▪️ The whole country supports Donbass and Novorossiya in establishing peaceful life in this land, which has been an integral part of Russia for centuries, Putin said;

▪️ In the new regions, 62 apartment blocks have already been built, more than three thousand kilometres of roads have been repaired, Putin said;

▪️ Decent living and working conditions for the inhabitants of Donbass and Novorossiya should be created now, Putin said.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 24 2024 15:50 utc | 15

Chinese scientists reporting they've found a way to track stealth aircraft. If so there's goes the West's last major ace card.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jul 24 2024 12:32 utc | 519

Interesting piece on just that subject here. https://youtu.be/ffGQLnlXks4?si=ZijkIQSMkJ9tKmb1

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 24 2024 15:53 utc | 16

Resident
Colleagues have accurately noticed the position of Zaluzhny, who is waiting for the right moment to replace Zelensky. All closed presidential ratings show that the former Commander-in-Chief will easily win in the first round, and this is beneficial for Britain, which will replace the President of Ukraine at the right time.

https://t.me/s/rezident_ua

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2024 15:59 utc | 17

Russia wins conflict in Ukraine, bringing the West to the brink of collapse - Emmanuel Todd.

Emmanuel Todd, the most famous French historian who predicted the collapse of the USSR , is now warning the EU about the reality of a similar prospect , states (https://berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/geopolitik/emmanuel-todd-deutschland-wird-entscheiden-ob-in-der-ukraine-frieden-einkehrt-li.2236539) the German Berliner Zeitung

“ We, the West , are waging a direct war with Russia, primarily an economic one , which harms Europe more than Russia. Behind the conflict are the United States , which seeks to alienate Germany from Russia. It finally succeeded . The Nord Stream explosion was the icing on the cake, said Emmanuel Todd

Ukraine has already lost in the current military conflict. Moreover, Russia will receive even more territories . For Russia, ending the conflict is possible only if it is confident in its continued security . It is possible that the leadership in Ukraine will be replaced by one loyal to Russia

Such peace in Ukraine is a disaster for the United States , a public defeat in the eyes of the whole world. This could be followed by the collapse of the entire US-led world order.

In this situation, a lot depends on the path that Europe chooses . And this, in turn, depends on the position of Germany . “It is Germany that will decide whether the endless military conflict will continue or whether peace will return.”

“ Germany must take responsibility as the leading power in Europe. We are all in Europe waiting for Germany to end the military conflict in Ukraine. This must also be done because the West as a whole is on the verge of collapse and has more important problems , such as demography and the destruction of society due to neoliberalism and nihilism,” emphasizes Emmanuel Todd in conclusion.

Slavyangrad TG

https://x.com/GeromanAT/status/1816142071968719341

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 24 2024 16:12 utc | 18

https://berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/geopolitik/emmanuel-todd-deutschland-wird-entscheiden-ob-in-der-ukraine-frieden-einkehrt-li.2236539

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 24 2024 16:12 utc | 18

---

This is a rather good interview for the opinions it exposes.

Posted by: too scents | Jul 24 2024 16:17 utc | 19

Posted by: too scents | Jul 24 2024 14:49 utc | 3

The Border, the economy, weaponisation of the institutions, DEI/woke infiltration, energy policy, criminal justice, education etc, are all central planks, not Ukraine. It might be important, in view of the other objectives, but he’s proved his competence in foreign policy to a majority of the electorate, so not really critical to any electoral success. Given Russia’s accelerated progress this year at cracking the 2014 line, with nothing comprehensive behind, I wonder what state Ukraine will be in, in November.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 24 2024 15:53 utc | 16

Just a few jottings before supper:

1. The countries most concerned about stealth are the ones who routinely say it is now obsolete, this has held true for the last decade+

2. The countries above will regularly claim that their platforms now possess the capabilities they say are not effective.

3. Most observers do not understand the capabilities stealth gives a platform, neither the problems it causes an opponent, instead believing it’s akin to a cloaking device.

4. Just as the detection technology is improving so are the stealth capabilities

5. Finding a theoretical way is very different from having an operational capability


Posted by: Milites | Jul 24 2024 16:26 utc | 20

Legitimate
#layout
The interview with Commander-in-Chief Syrsky is imbued with the narratives of the President's Office, which is aimed at raising morale and creating the illusion that everything is fine, just fine.
Against the background of the constant retreats of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, this interview is a complete "fairy tale" that you and I want to convince ourselves of.

The interview is published specifically for the beginning of the offensive, which should take place in the next 40 days.

Legitimate
#rumors
Our source reports that Zelensky, through lobbyists in the Democratic Party, is trying to arrange a phone call for Kamala Harris.
There are no results yet. If Harris frostbites Zelensky and does not call him now and at most after the first days after the Democratic convention (August 19-22), then this will mean a "black mark" for Zelensky.
In simple words, by the end of August, Zelensky's reshals should organize a call. Otherwise, it will mean that Ze is toxic and will be "said goodbye/drained". This does not mean that the Ukrainian crisis will be uninteresting - it means that the manager has ceased to be interesting.

Zelensky is a" Biden doll, " and the new US presidents don't need him. They can easily put their" puppet " in place of Zelensky. https://t.me/s/legitimniy


At the rate Ukraine is losing cannon fodder - approx 60,000 per month, plus the heavy weapons being destroyed, the Ukies cannot wait too long before starting their mighty offensive.

This Guardian article of an interview with Syrskyi is interesting at the start in that he actually gives an accurate figure of Russian troop numbers at the start of the SMO - 100,000.

The pentagon gave the size of the force at 140 BTG's. At say 750 men per BTG, that works out at somewhere around 100,000 which is the number I have gone off since that time. Much larger force now though.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2024 16:32 utc | 21

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2024 16:32 utc | 21

You'd think the AFU counter-offensive lost its meaning after Biden was ousted, as the purpose was to help Biden win the election in the case that it succeeded 'taking some ground'.

The question is, who in the US swamp is still adamant to make another counter-offensive and why? With Biden gone, it's clean sheet for the Dembots. And Trump-Vance want nothing to do with the whole issue, except maybe plotting to take credit for an eventual peace they, nor anyone in the west had nothing to do with.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 24 2024 16:37 utc | 22

Unimperator@1612

Germany became an occupied state on May 8,1945. That status has maintained now for 79 years as American occupational forces still retain power over the Berlin Regime. No peace treaty has ever been signed. Largely at the behest of the likes of Bernard Baruch and Winston Churchill; the German people...at least the "Wessis", have been culturally degraded over nearly four generations. Even their economic Wirtschaftswunder has been tattered and tormented due to the U$$A takedown of Nordstream.

All at the same time, I mourn for the people of Ukraine, where casualty figures mount massively. Such sites as feature the "butchers' bill" for the growingly hapless Ukie military have become a horror unto themselves. Habitually now, I no longer read the material on those listings and concentrate primarily on the numbers of artillery systems and armor which have been devastated.

Pressures for overall collapse of the Banderite/Talmudist state are increasing in tempo and tenacity. Internal resistance is gathering steam...where in some locales the official state kidnappers are getting beat up on the streets by outraged widows and mothers of the sacrificed troops. Even their vehicles are being torched. The rot within the fake Maidanite coup state is acceleration closer and closer to the breaking point. Frontline surrenders are gradually mounting. Soon we may expect fraggings of officers and open combat between frontline "meat" and the Azov types who are there to prevent retreats and surrenders.

Will there be an October not-so "surprise"? Will the Piano-Dick-Player flee to one of his ill-gotten mansions in the West? Chances are, that he will not choose the Zionist Entity where he would qualify for instant citizenship. Why? Because that regime too, may not exist very deeply into future time.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jul 24 2024 16:46 utc | 23

unimperator | Jul 24 2024 16:37 utc | 22

According to another post at the Legitimate channel, it is Zelensky himself who needs the offensive to go ahead. Basically Ze position in now in danger due to the constant losses at the front. I would assume the British though are still pushing for an offensive and no doubt the likes of Stoltenberg and Von Lying.

With whats been going on recently, it does seem a bit iffy as to whether it goes ahead or not so I'm waiting to see what develops.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2024 16:56 utc | 24

aristodemos | Jul 24 2024 16:46 utc | 23

What you mentioned about the growing resistance amongst ordinary Ukrainians - on one of the Ukraine tg channels there was a post about the Ze regime instituting a program to prevent news of suicides amongst the wife of those taken to certain death on the frontlines. There was one the other where a woman set herself on fire after her husband was dragged away. That one become well known because it was in Public and was videoed and did the rounds of telegram. that one public case may be just a tiny tip of the iceberg if a policy has been brought in to suppress this sort of news.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2024 17:09 utc | 25

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2024 16:56 utc | 24

When you're on the ground being mauled by a bear and you've just run out of your last can of bear spray you'd think the thought process would go something like "how do I get out of this" rather than "I really should kick that bear in the nuts right now"

I doubt they'll go on the offensive without a new bear spray patron.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 24 2024 17:16 utc | 26

Russian forces should seek these jets out and destroy them before they can be used in earnest.

"The Ukrainian military will have to be careful with its US-made fighter jets once they arrive in the country, the nation’s top military commander, Colonel General Aleksandr Syrsky, has told the Guardian. The F-16s are likely to be vulnerable to Russia’s “superior” aviation and air defenses, he added.

The aircraft are likely to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses, the general stated, admitting that their use would still be limited. The fighter jets would have to stay at least “40 kilometers or more” from the front lines to avoid being shot down by Russian forces, he said in an interview with the British daily which was published on."

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jul 24 2024 17:18 utc | 27

Has anyone seen anything about extending or renewing or negotiating news contracts?
Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 24 2024 15:10 utc | 6

No. AFAIK, Russia is looking at Asia.

The EUropean Union has declared they wish to have zero fossil fuel use well before 2050. This means it makes little sense to invest in fossil fuel infrastructure for the EU market. This is true whether you are Russian or not.

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 24 2024 17:22 utc | 28

Why are European citizens allowing the EU bigwigs to steal their children's futures by sending billions of Euro's to prop up a Neo-Nazi regime, who gave these EU leaders permission to steal these vast amounts of cash from their citizens.

The same is happening to American's and UK citizens there public services especially in the UK are on the verge of collapsing yet billions are sent to prop up a vile regime. We didn't give them permission to steal our monies, monies that should've been spent inhouse.

"The European Council ambassadors have voted in favor of sending the first installment of the €50 billion plan to finance Ukraine through 2027.

Known as the Ukraine Facility, the program was set up last summer, with the goal of providing “predictable financial support” to Kiev."

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jul 24 2024 17:26 utc | 29

HB_Norica | Jul 24 2024 17:16 utc | 26

The core liberal/globalist faction of the deep state still have the whitehouse and will have ownership of it until January. The numbers have obviously swung to the realist/nationalist faction, but still, the globalists have six months in which they can create a lot of mischief.

That core group - that's where the 25 million instantly appeared from for the Harris campaign the moment 'Biden' said he would not be running for the next election.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2024 17:26 utc | 30

Knowing this and the Poles are still propping up a Neo-Nazi regime.

"Ukraine should not be allowed to join the EU until Kiev and Warsaw resolve their differences over a World War II massacre in which Ukrainian Nazi collaborators slaughtered tens of thousands of Poles, Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz has said.

The issue of the Volyn massacre has long been a flashpoint in Ukrainian-Polish relations, despite Warsaw’s support for Kiev in its conflict with Russia. Between 40,000 and 100,000 Poles are estimated to have been murdered by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), which collaborated with the Third Reich, in the Volyn and Galicia Regions in 1943 and 1944.

In 2016, the Polish parliament declared the Volyn massacre a “genocide.” While Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky and Polish President Andrzej Duda jointly attended an event to honor the memory of Volyn victims in 2023, Kiev has so far been reluctant to call the massacre a genocide, arguing that such a crime can only be perpetrated by a state, while the atrocities were carried out by partisan units."

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jul 24 2024 17:29 utc | 31

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 24 2024 16:12 utc | 18

I suppose this article in the Berliner is a translation from the French to German.
Does anyone happen to know where the original text of the interview with Emmanuel Toddis?

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 24 2024 17:30 utc | 32

RF now needs to destroy in detail all oil storage and distribution facilities - no oil no logistical transportation and resupply of oil, food and ammo.

RF now needs to destroy all electrical generation and transmission centers, including transmission stations sending electricity from the EU member countries to the Ukraine.

All main rail bridges and locomotive storage and repair yards need to be destroyed, no rail, no heavy equipment movement.

Finish the job.........defeat the Nazis in detail........

Posted by: Tobias Cole | Jul 24 2024 17:30 utc | 33

We're not out of the woods on this NATO/Russia escalation in Ukraine - not even headed that way. It looks like the French and SAS are taking their turn poking the bear - at some point Mr. Putin's going to get enough and then the buttons are going to get pushed: https://folkpotpourri.com/nuclear-war-hiroshima-taught-us-nothing/

Posted by: Ozark Grandpa | Jul 24 2024 17:34 utc | 34

“Ukraine has already lost in the current military conflict. Moreover, Russia will receive even more territories.”

Emmanuel Todd

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 24 2024 16:12 utc

This sounds like a TV game show. Let’s Make A Deal! Is Todd also a fortune teller, an astrologist, Tarot cards? Russia has lost ground since the Spring of 2022. A glacier could move West faster than Putin’s SMO.

Clinging to these predictions, is like a scorned lover paying a Gypsy fortune teller to ease the pain of unrequited love with false hopes.

In reality, The SMO has been stopped cold for years and Russia is being bombed by the West — despite all these Pro-Putin Peyote songs.

Posted by: Napoleon | Jul 24 2024 17:38 utc | 35

Putin made nany steategic mistakes. A. Merkel fooled hom with Minsk I and Minsk II.
Has he learned his lesson or still trusts EU politicians?

Posted by: vargas | Jul 24 2024 17:58 utc | 36

The EUropean Union has declared they wish to have zero fossil fuel use well before 2050. This means it makes little sense to invest in fossil fuel infrastructure for the EU market. This is true whether you are Russian or not.

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 24 2024 17:22 utc | 28

this is something i simply do not understand. the eu(rotards) do know that fossil fuels are needed for more then just the automotive industry etc?
byproducts of oil are plastics, lubricants (for their industrial base), cosmetics (for the girlbosses like vdl), pharma, and so on.

what exactly are they going to do about all that? or do they simply mean "fuel", as in gasoline for their peoples cars and thats it?
is that notorious agenda 2030 all they care about? "you vill own nothing and be happy!"?

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jul 24 2024 18:16 utc | 37

Thank you Tobias Cole @33 for your enlightened advices, it's a good thing I'm on MoA tonight, otherwise I'd have missed the solution my staff was still looking for.

Влади́мир Влади́мирович Пу́тин.

Posted by: Vladimir V. Putin | Jul 24 2024 18:26 utc | 38

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jul 24 2024 18:16 utc | 37

A document from five years ago allows checking promised against actual results:
fossil free by 2050

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 24 2024 18:31 utc | 39

The NATO countries have no intention of leaving fossil fuels in the ground. The Guardian have a story today highlighting that.

The aim is to reduce consumption by ordinary citizens to keep the economy upright as imperialist wealth transfers from the global south decline in the coming decades. Inflation and austerity are how the elites intend to protect their wealth along with a push to move consumption online and reduce travel by ordinary people which is why we have constant chaos in airports and also why airplanes have suddenly become unsafe.

In a world of finite resources military and security functions are going to be prioritised over the personal consumption of ordinary people.

Posted by: SB | Jul 24 2024 18:40 utc | 40

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 24 2024 18:31 utc | 39

thanks for that.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jul 24 2024 18:52 utc | 41

This is a rather good interview for the opinions it exposes.

Posted by: too scents | Jul 24 2024 16:17 utc | 19

Oh no, it's pure nonsense.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Jul 24 2024 19:15 utc | 42

BREAKING: Georgia has uncovered a plot to "violently overthrow" its government.

Hundreds of members of the Georgian National Legion, a war criminal mercenary group in Ukraine that is the main recipient of funds from NAFO, have been added to a wanted list, while some of its members appear to have been detained for questioning. This outfit has been accused of an array of grisly war crimes, as I have previously documented.

In an interview with Politico, Georgian Legion commander Mamuka Mamulashvili claimed 300 of his unit's members were added to the wanted list.

Mamulashvili has boasted about his unit's policy of executing Russian POWs. As I have previously exposed, Mamulashvili has maintained close relations with high-level US foreign policy makers in Congress. He has also been accused of orchestrating the false flag Maidan sniper attack the precipitated the US-backed coup in Ukraine in 2014.


https://x.com/RealAlexRubi/status/1816117955228221497

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2024 19:22 utc | 43

Posted by: SB | Jul 24 2024 18:40 utc | 40

Strange that the newspaper who has championed the Green radical agenda, for the past 50+ years is now actually admitting its real purpose,

Perhaps the elites should consider putting down their smart phones and picking up a history book, they might get a bit of a shock about what could be in store for them if they pursue this supposed agenda.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 24 2024 19:22 utc | 44

Posted by: Napoleon | Jul 24 2024 17:38 utc | 35

"In reality, The SMO has been stopped cold for years and Russia is being bombed by the West — despite all these Pro-Putin Peyote songs."

Either I do not understand a thing, or this factual error ("The SMO has been stopped cold for years"), is not something a human would make

Posted by: RandomLurker | Jul 24 2024 19:36 utc | 45

Posted by: RandomLurker | Jul 24 2024 19:36 utc | 45

#############

It's not a factual error. It is deception and bad faith posting by a troll account.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 24 2024 19:41 utc | 46

Summertime and the livin' is easy.

Slovakia has warned Ukraine that if it does not resume oil supplies from the Russian Federation to Slovakia, that Slovakia will be forced to limit electricity sent to Ukraine.

Slovakia is one of the largest suppliers of electricity to Ukraine.

https://t.me/kalibrated/12360

Posted by: too scents | Jul 24 2024 19:46 utc | 47

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 24 2024 19:41 utc | 46

"It's not a factual error. It is deception and bad faith posting by a troll account."

In reference to : "In reality, The SMO has been stopped cold for years and Russia is being bombed by the West — despite all these Pro-Putin Peyote songs."
Posted by: Napoleon | Jul 24 2024 17:38 utc | 35

REPLY to LoveDonbass: We are on the same page here, but what intrigued me is the thought that a human, no matter how deceived or acting on bad faith, wouldn't say that.
A bot maybe?

Posted by: RandomLurker | Jul 24 2024 19:48 utc | 48

There has been a friendly-fire shooting incident in AFU military unit in Kharkov, 3 dead and 4 wounded.

https://x.com/distant_earth83/status/1816196599992967279/photo/2

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 24 2024 19:53 utc | 49

A good video of a couple of 'mobilization' goons getting dropped. They are trying to snatch a smaller man then a bigger bloke comes in from behind and downs both. The communities are certainly starting to look after each other and fight back.
https://x.com/BowesChay/status/1816156240000471469

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2024 19:56 utc | 50

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2024 19:56 utc | 50

When the women start carrying hammers in their bags, you know the whole forced conscription thing will end.

Already their fleet of vehicles are under attack at night. What happens when those events are done in daytime?

Posted by: BroncoBilly | Jul 24 2024 20:12 utc | 51

Does not look like Putin will be done by election day or this year

With electricity supplies falling short Ukrainians will freeze, putting some pressure on what constitutes their leadership. Mike Johnson seems the only warmonger still left outside Blinken et. al, so there is room left for small changed.

Putin will pretty much drive the agenda and the timetable. My crystal ball is cloudy.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 24 2024 20:35 utc | 52

Peter AU1 @50:

Now that is some uplifting and heartwarming video!

I still think one of the reasons the Russians are going slow with the Ukraine is because dealing with the Nazis is a Ukrainian responsibility, and the Russians are giving them time to realize they had best deal with it. If the Ukrainians assume a big role in taking out their trash, they can stand tall and proud afterwards.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 24 2024 20:36 utc | 53

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 24 2024 20:35 utc | 52

Martyanov in his latest video says Russians no longer give a sh#t about the 'brotherly' Ukrainian nation, Zelensky, Kuleba, the west or even China as far as Ukraine, Russia is on their own timetable with own set of goals. They will go to the end removing it and NATO as a potential threat. If it means dismantling every piece of infrastructure it will happen. The west has zero role. And Russians in general want nothing to do with Ukrainians (obviously this of course varies on individual level).

Obviously this probably doesn't mean that individual people wouldn't move to Russia, obviously some will. The main point is the 'state and idea' itself.

If there is no coherency to defend the 'Ukrainian idea', then the thing is as good as dead. Perhaps the outcome is the population eventually scatters, be it to the east or west?

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 24 2024 20:47 utc | 54

"At the rate Ukraine is losing cannon fodder - approx 60,000 per month"

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2024 16:32 utc

SacreBleu!

I hate to burst bubbles, but how can anyone take these numbers seriously? Even the people who publish these numbers do not believe them. They must smile when they write the copy. If someone gave Putin this number, Vlad would fire them ... or maybe laugh and invite them for a glass of vodka.

This fantasy that Ukraine and Russia are fighting Verdum-like battles is the stuff of Hollywood. The frozen front probably more resembles biker gangs fighting each other for turf ... granted, bikers with drones, artillery, and hopefully good drugs.

Truth is the first causality of war. Both parties to this conflict publish numbers that would make even Bagdad Bob blush.

Posted by: Napoleon | Jul 24 2024 21:07 utc | 55

Melaleuca | Jul 24 2024 15:10 utc | 6

No, sorry, nothing about gas.
With oil however, Russian oil, there's been some stunning new development. Don't know if you're aware of this, but the landlocked Balkan states had gotten a waiver from the meatheads in Brussels so that they could still receive Russian oil through Ukraine via pipeline (everyone else was forbidden from doing so). So basically oil via the traditional system that was once put in place among the Warsaw Pact countries, the system that worked very well. Now, the EU hasn't done anything for once, but Zelensky has. Ukraine has forbidden Lukoil (the Russian and international company that nowadays carries the oil contract for the old pipeline system) from pumping oil through Ukraine. Effective immediately. This means that Slovakia and Hungary have run 'dry', their refineries can't produce anymore. The Czech Republic, Austria and Serbia will also be directly affected. Indirectly, the whole continent will be affected, too. You know, supply and demand. It will now be even more of a headache for any refiner in Europe to get the oil they need, and petrol prices will rise no doubt. What a nice gift by Zelensky.

You won't hear a word about this from the EU meatheads or in any MSM. Just utter silence. It's too much of an embarrassment, this brazen economic attack on the EU by the EU's very own protégé. They just pretend it never happened, so they won't have to even comment on it, let alone deal with it.

Hungary and Slovakia, however, are pissed and have already vowed to downright block any further weapons or money transfer to Ukraine, should this situation not be resolved.

Ugly, yet also amusing.

---

too scents | Jul 24 2024 19:46 utc | 47

Thanks a lot for the information! It was a joy to read. Good thing the Hungarians and Slovaks are sharp. Zelensky that silly cunt needs to be thrashed - by the powers he depends on.

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Jul 24 2024 21:17 utc | 56

Complete morons and liars are appearing here when it is obvious that the situation of the ukronazis is desperate. They need to propagate their lies. Thanks to some new weapons and the complete control of the sky, between 2000 and 3000 ukrainian soldiers are killed every day. Many surrender. Many do not want to be mobilised. Many are becoming partisans helping actively the Russians.

And now we read that the penis piano player speaks about negotiations... and is whining because Russia does not want, for they stick to what they announced as conditions. Here too it means only one thing: the situation of the ukronazis is desperate.

Posted by: Naive | Jul 24 2024 21:19 utc | 57

William Gruff | Jul 24 2024 20:36 utc | 53

It is likely Ukraine will surrender by or before the Trump inauguration. With the rolling blackouts of about ten hours and no way of restoring it, the Ukrainians are heading into a somewhat cold and dark winter. On top of that, if there is a surrender there will also be demobilization and it is only then the average Ukraine will realize the true scale of their casualties/losses.

What you said about the Ukrainians basically denazifing whatever is left of Ukraine, quite some time back, I felt it was Putin's intention to take them to that point. Now only are there partisan units operating, there is an anti Zelensky resistance starting to form.

I clicked on the link to have another look at that video and it has now been removed. Too bad, it was good to watch.
The smaller younger bloke looked like he may have a been trained MMA fighter, both in the way he moved and he had obviously been giving a good account of himself before the big bloke joined in.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2024 21:30 utc | 58

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Jul 24 2024 21:17 utc | 56

After this stunt, and countless others, it's hard to see EU surviving for very long after the conflict is essentially over. Not to mention the meat head Eurocrats actually told to Hungarian peoples face they should leave. Then try to murder Fico in Slovakia.

Hungary and Slovakia are pretty much ripe to leave. There's a pretty high certainty Russia can install at least a neutral government in a portion of Ukraine that can control highway and rail access to the Romanian, Hungarian and Slovakian borders.

When that happens, commodities and goods flow freely from the Eurasian continent to the heart of the EU, the EU monopoly is dead at that point and a big chunk of the Balkans will say: SCREW YOU. And the unraveling begins.

Russia can really achieve this.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 24 2024 21:35 utc | 59

A post by Napo Leon followed immediately by a post by Varg Ass. Coincidence?

Posted by: Mike R | Jul 24 2024 21:41 utc | 60

Haye to agree with the troll, but he's right. Ukr loss numbers are grossly inflated by RuMoD.

2000 - 3000 killed a day? I'd say more likely 400 - 600. As I noted before, the numbers always seem to be multiples of five, meaning estimates by five.

Why multiply by five, it is so obvious?

My second guess would be the officers who need to know the truth are told to divide RuMoD numbers by 5.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2024 21:42 utc | 61

UWDude | Jul 24 2024 21:42 utc | 61

Its just a matter of looking at what is coming from the Ukie frontlines on telegram. Most professional military believe believe the Rus MoD figures are very conservative.

Some time ago, when Rus MoD was reporting a bit below a thousand a day, a ukie politician said they needed 30,000 new recruits per month, the head general at the time, in an interview to the economist, said they needed 20,000 new recruits per month.

So those two figures from Ukraine and the Rus mod reports were all in the same casualty range.

The flying bombs Russia is using now are taking a big toll, plus the drones, and the artillery hasn't let up at all. I just read a report from a Ukie small unit commander - I think they were in a battalion size grouping in one sector and they were simply getting wiped out by artillery.
This huge mobilization going on - those poor bastards a fed straight into the front line without training, and in a hot sector, their life expectancy can be measured in hours.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2024 22:00 utc | 62

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 24 2024 16:12 utc | 18

Ok, BZ article is in Google cache.

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 24 2024 22:06 utc | 63

It is likely Ukraine will surrender by or before the Trump inauguration. With the rolling blackouts of about ten hours and no way of restoring it, the Ukrainians are heading into a somewhat cold and dark winter.


I think they would not surrender like Hamas is not surrendering.

Posted by: vargas | Jul 24 2024 22:07 utc | 64

a ukie politician said they needed 30,000 new recruits per month, the head general at the time, in an interview to the economist, said they needed 20,000 new recruits per month.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2024 22:00 utc | 62

They would like to rotate, some must retire, and there are wounded, as well as they want a bigger army than they have now.

Russian rear strikes are hard to count, so they can add a not insignificant number to the frontline estimates.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2024 22:10 utc | 65

@unimperator | Jul 24 2024 16:12 utc | 18

Thanks for that link to Todd.

Yes, position of Germany is central to future of Europe.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jul 24 2024 22:12 utc | 66

UWDude | Jul 24 2024 22:10 utc | 65

Retire? There isn't any demobilization after a certain time period. They are in it for the duration. It is literally a death sentence.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2024 22:13 utc | 67

Retire? There isn't any demobilization after a certain time period. They are in it for the duration. It is literally a death sentence.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2024 22:13 utc | 67

Yes, but the politicians would rather that not the case.

Rotation is also pretty much put of the question.

Politician wanting a dream package is not a good way to gauge losses.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2024 22:16 utc | 68

Posted by: RandomLurker | Jul 24 2024 19:48 utc | 48

###############

It could be a bot. I don't think it matters.

This format doesn't allow us to block bad accounts. Occasionally we get a respite from the noise of these nonsensical posters.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 24 2024 22:22 utc | 69

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2024 21:42 utc | 61

Is lost simply killed or a combination of KIA/WIA and MIA? If the latter then 2,000 per day, on a 2,000 km front is an entirely plausible number for the following reasons:

1. The number of precision strikes targeting rear-areas (larger target density).

2. The weapons used in the conflict that are not only highly accurate, but often have large over-matches against their targets. This is especially true of the thermobarics, ballistic missiles and FAB’s (especially the latest models).

3. Casualties normally reflect the difference in training between combatants and/or their ability to adapt. Most observers have commented on the quality of Ukrainian soldiers declining since the start of the SMO, a situation that is unlikely to have affected the Russians as much, if at all, and some would say the reverse.

4. Linked to 3) Russians are being equipped and trained to use equipment that has been modified and enhanced thanks to combat experience, the Ukrainians less so.

5. Greater use and integration of drones, both in ISR, improving lethality of existing platforms, and in direct attack capabilities, whilst still employing traditional platforms in the required quantities.

6. The large number of mines used and their methods of operation.

7. Russian air superiority/dominance that is steadily increasing.

8. The RuMoD, like many similar organisations, don’t lie, but they also don’t correct any misconceptions they have deliberately created, are all losses counted or only those caused by direct Russian actions? If the former far more believable.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 24 2024 22:26 utc | 70

UWDude | Jul 24 2024 22:16 utc | 68

The enormity of Ukraine losses come from many sources. There has been so many battalion size groups (1000 or so) wiped out very quickly and that's coming from the Ukrainian side on telegram. When Bakhmut was on, A western MSM crew, I forget which went to Bakhmut and did a short report or doco. Life expectancy for new recruits there was four hours. They interviewed a number of different soldiers and officers.
The Rus Mod numbers will be anywhere from accurate to very conservative, but certainly not overstating the Ukraine casualties.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2024 22:32 utc | 71

8. The RuMoD, like many similar organisations, don’t lie, but they also don’t correct any misconceptions they have deliberately created, are all losses counted or only those caused by direct Russian actions? If the former far more believable.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 24 2024 22:26 utc | 70

RuMoD uses the term "destroyed" personnel, which afaik translates to killed.

Perhaps if you count every minor wound and desertion, the number is accurate.

But people here are saying "killed", and I just remain skeptical as to those kinds of numbers... ...mostly because I dont see how the AFU could still be as cohesive as it is with such losses. After all, if those are the amounts killed, then the actual number of casualties, including wounded, would have to be like 60,000 - 100,000 a month.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2024 22:35 utc | 72

The Berlin Wall Falls Again...

https://johnhelmer.net/the-berlin-wall-falls-again-this-time-on-the-state-prosecution-of-heinrich-buecher/

"One of Germany's most notorious prosecutions of free speech has collapsed, as the Berlin prosecutor's office has dropped a case designed to stop Germans discussing the war against Russia in Ukraine..."

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jul 24 2024 22:37 utc | 73

My impression: if rumod says: five tanks then it's five tanks exactly. If rumod says 1350 soldiers then their best guess is 1500 soldiers, and the number in the press release is their best guess minus 10%.

For unreliable numbers, read minfin stats.

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 24 2024 22:38 utc | 74

Also, of course the RuMoD lies.
They'd be fools not to.

"All warfare is based on deception".

Deception is an artform all unto itself.

Russia claimed last night that an unused warehouse was hit by a drone. Was it really unused? Was it even hit?

Should they lie all the time? No, they should lie about 50% of the time, for maximum unpredictability.

But they should under no circumstances constantly let their enemies know the successes or failures of their strikes.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2024 22:40 utc | 75

I hate to burst bubbles, but how can anyone take these numbers seriously?

Posted by: Napoleon | Jul 24 2024 21:07 utc | 55

60k's not a big number.

The Soviets lost 194,400 "unrecoverable losses" per month Q4 1944 right around the time they retook Kiev ... so they're fighting over the same blood soaked ground.

They also lost 3X that number sick and wounded.

Bombs, missiles and Artillery have only gotten more accurate since then.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 24 2024 22:43 utc | 76

And another point, if RuMoD were to "never lie", that would only mean they report what lower level officers report.

Are you telling me all lower level officers also never lie? So RuMoD reports can only be as accurate as what their officers are telling them.

Are these officers more prone to minimize or exaggerate their competence and efficacy?

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2024 22:46 utc | 77

Since the guy who outlawed making peace with Putin is now talking a lot about peace and negotiations, you know it’s bad. How far the cascading failure breaking point is for Ukraine is still up in the air. But it’s getting there. Everyday the battlefield updates are another kilometer or two in lots of places, another village taken, more videos of Russian drones targeting Ukrainians and their assets and them getting blown up.

Making Biden a lame duck in July is problematic. Ukraine has been his personal project since 2008ish. No other politician in the running will outright abandon Kiev, including Trump, but there’s not much any of them land do except throw money at it. Russia might be mostly finished by the US inauguration, not because they care but because shit happens and things fall apart. All US politicians will be focused solely on the election from now until November. If not elections then Israel.

I won’t be surprised if when the VSU cracks, Russia’s territorial acquisitions get quite large, quite fast. Everything gained is either negotiation material and/or DMZ.

Posted by: Lex | Jul 24 2024 22:49 utc | 78

Bombs, missiles and Artillery have only gotten more accurate since then.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 24 2024 22:43 utc | 76

So has surveillance, drones and tactics.

It's pretty crazy that weapons have gotten exponentially deadlier over time, yet the casualties do not increase exponentially.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2024 22:50 utc | 79

UWDude | Jul 24 2024 22:50 utc | 79

Since the start of the second phase, Russia has basically put the SMO on cruise control. No big offensives, just taking ground when theres few or no Ukies left alive. I had put casualty ratio at around 7-1, though Putin said not long back 5-1.

Wagner in Bakhmut were instead aggressively try to take territory and they had much higher casualties. Wagner around 35000 dead and Ukies around 70,000 dead. That's a ratio of about 2-1.
That's a total of around 135,000 dead in the battle for just one relatively small city.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2024 23:00 utc | 80

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 24 2024 22:35 utc | 72

You’re destroyed might not be my destroyed, this isn’t a new phenomenon at all. Academic battles still rage over the relative losses in armour on the Eastern Front, often caused and/or fuelled by the different interpretations the combatants used for the word ‘loss’.

Posted by: Passerby | Jul 24 2024 22:38 utc | 74

As I’ve posted before, Russians operate using a Correlation of Forces and Means (CoFM) model, which statistically informs commanders, doing, x with y for t (for time) against e (for enemy) will result in c (for number of casualties). If therefore a dug in Ukrainian battalion has been under a regimental sized bombardment for two days the Russian commander will, using his CoFM tables, be able to calculate what category the enemy will be in. This is expressed in percentage casualties (normally a range is given) and impact on the units combat capability.

My hunch is that where the BDA is unclear the lower end of the casualty percentage is taken, whether this takes into account the varying levels of deployment strengths is unknown. If this practice is carried out then casualty figures for personnel are automatically on the conservative side. For vehicles and AFV’s the figures will be less approximated, but more susceptible to semantic distortion.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 24 2024 23:03 utc | 81

Today there was cause for celebration within the liberated "historic" regions of Russia that I turned into "The Socio-Economic Development of Russia's "historical subjects"". And when the damage done is considered and the amounts at reconstruction guessed at by the West, Russia has spent less and done far more than anyone imagined. I wish there'd been more photos to show readers, while some of the projects being rededicated today are visible in the video. The motto appears to be akin to Build-Back Better and is a nationwide effort that's been seen via earlier reports. We read and see the SMO's destruction on a daily basis, but we seldom hear about the reconstruction. Here's an opportunity.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 24 2024 23:10 utc | 82

A post by Napo Leon followed immediately by a post by Varg Ass. Coincidence?
Posted by: Mike R | Jul 24 2024 21:41 utc | 60
--------------------------------------------------
We should consider ourselves twice blessed, FWIIW.
Ignore is my preferred approach, much encouraged.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 24 2024 23:27 utc | 83

The motto appears to be akin to Build-Back Better and is a nationwide effort that's been seen via earlier reports. We read and see the SMO's destruction on a daily basis, but we seldom hear about the reconstruction. Here's an opportunity.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 24 2024 23:10 utc | 82
-----------------------------------------------------
Which Western 'news' sources might be in a position to pick up on that?

Twitter/X is still a little too vulgar (might not be the right word) to me.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 24 2024 23:29 utc | 84

Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2024 23:00 utc | 80--

Everyday now there're significant advances, while some parts of the front light up and others grow dark as rotations occur. At the SMO's outset, myself and others expected Ukie troops to get blasted by Russia's air force's superiority, but that didn't really begin to happen until Spring 2024 with the use of FABs that now includes the FAB-3000. Their use has allowed Russian assault groups to become even smaller yet more numerous, with the motorcycle blitzes being the most spectacular, while the use of armor has vastly decreased as the current terrain is one small village after another then a larger town or small city followed by more villages. However, that topographical belt will soon change to open country again and armor will again be employed. And the more attrition the faster the advances as decimated Ukie units break and run while others allow themselves to get surrounded. It appears the higher concentration of observer drones is leading to greater destruction of Ukie artillery assets, and more drones also means more spotting of ammo points and their elimination. And so it goes day after day after day.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 24 2024 23:31 utc | 85

A post by Napo Leon followed immediately by a post by Varg Ass. Coincidence?
Posted by: Mike R | Jul 24 2024 21:41 utc | 60
--------------------------------------------------
We should consider ourselves twice blessed, FWIIW.
Ignore is my preferred approach, much encouraged.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 24 2024 23:27 utc | 83

Agreed and as a rule I follow it, but just o explain to Mike (or other new ones) Napo and Vargas ... one has his head so up the other's ass the they come in pairs.

Same for some others.

As for RF casualties I'm still waiting for the economist's update for May.

So far I have consistency between raw excess mortality+1200 with 1.56 of meadia zone's base number and with 1/6th of ukraine's casualties for the RF (1/6th is a standard KIA ration for all hit)

All point to 93.500 RF KIA

Now what's the AFU's number? By putin's 5:1 we're still shy of 470.000 (and as many or more irrecoverably WIA)

That's in the 30.000 "AFU's needs" earlier less, now more.

The bad news with such low numbers is that there would still be room for meat unless the population is under 22 million

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 25 2024 0:02 utc | 86

Ukraine being seen as defeated before November 5 would indicate that hundreds of billions of dollars of aid had been wasted, hundreds of thousands of deaths and maiming had been for naught, and as a bonus China and Russia were inclined to being on better terms, and to share military technology. Iran and North Korea also saw some benefits. That won't get spun by the media as good for the Biden/Harris administration because the MIC will want them to promote it as a disaster necessitating a huge increase in defense spending.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jul 25 2024 0:12 utc | 87

"Has he learned his lesson or still trusts EU politicians?"

Posted by: vargas | Jul 24 2024 17:58 utc | 36

Excellent question. You have a talent for cutting to the core of the problem. But you probably won't get the answer on MOA. Have you tried QUORA? There are many experts there who will be happy to help you.

Posted by: someone | Jul 25 2024 0:19 utc | 88

Excellent question. You have a talent for cutting to the core of the problem. But you probably won't get the answer on MOA. Have you tried QUORA? There are many experts there who will be happy to help you.

Posted by: someone | Jul 25 2024 0:19 utc | 88

Vargas isn't here to get questions answered, 41 1307.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 25 2024 0:23 utc | 89

Vargas isn't here to get questions answered, 41 1307.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 25 2024 0:23 utc | 89

That's obvious. Glad you appreciate sarcasm.

Posted by: someone | Jul 25 2024 0:33 utc | 90

That's obvious. Glad you appreciate sarcasm.

Posted by: someone | Jul 25 2024 0:33 utc | 90

A little too dry for me to drink.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 25 2024 0:39 utc | 91

karlof1 | Jul 24 2024 23:31 utc | 85

Every war is a new war, new equipment, new tactics. A constantly evolving thing. Russian military has become a well oiled machine finely tuned to the demands of this war.

The rebuilding, I see bits and pieces on it from time to time. Not only replacing that destroyed, but also upgrading much old the old Soviet infrastructure that received very little to no upgrades since the Soviet collapse. Its good to see building rather than just war. I used to like watching video from China, infrastructure building, poverty alleviation, desert reclamation and that sort of thing, but unless you know the name of the video channels and go straight to them now, they cannot be found. Those sort of videos do not come using a search term in the youtube search function.

But the Donbass area was one of the most prosperous regions in the Soviet Union from what I have read, and I assume Russia will return it to that state.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 25 2024 0:39 utc | 92

The bad news with such low numbers is that there would still be room for meat unless the population is under 22 million
Posted by: Newbie | Jul 25 2024 0:02 utc | 86

Given that Ukrainians in other countries as refugees have also been conscripted, I would say they are very much scraping the bottom of the barrel now. From the Ukraine tg channels, any Ukrainian male whose passport expires must return to Ukraine in person to renew it.

Prior to this latest mobilization drive, Ukrainians could simply go into a Ukraine consulate or embassy to renew it.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 25 2024 0:50 utc | 93

A good video of a couple of 'mobilization' goons getting dropped. They are trying to snatch a smaller man then a bigger bloke comes in from behind and downs both. The communities are certainly starting to look after each other and fight back.
https://x.com/BowesChay/status/1816156240000471469

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 24 2024 19:56 utc | 50

Melon Husk has deleted it.

Posted by: Menz | Jul 25 2024 1:43 utc | 94

VV Putin 38 - You are very welcome. Will keep the advice coming, and thanks for your support of Serbia and the financial help in rebuilding the Cathedral of St. Sava in Belgrade.......Dobria!!

Posted by: Tobias Cole | Jul 25 2024 1:48 utc | 95

Two of the most critical factors in making war are logistics and morale. Having over the months developed the most lean, mean fighting machine in decades; the R.U. forces have succeeded in targeting and then demolishing a growing proportion of Kiev's military infrastructure. It is amazing that the Ukies have held out this long, what with their logistical system being constantly degraded. Supplies, reinforcements and medical attention for the wounded have been systematically reduced into frenetic improvisation.

Thus, we can conclude that the logistical system for the Ukie military is on the verge of running on fumes. Trains blown up, warehouses destroyed, electrical power massively degraded. From this logistical breakdown, it is logical to assume that this crisis, on top of manpower drainage has drained Ukie morale to a level fast approaching the breaking point. Icing on the cake is the growing "attention" being paid by women in particular, to those mobilization squads. Their vehicles are not armored, as they require every scrap of armor they can dig up to support their remaining frontline forces. Partisan guerrilla actions will only increase. Too many people have lost loved-ones to put up with the regime much longer.

Morale is on the verge of shattering, as the Russian assaults have become conservatively relentless. It would not surprise me in the least of the collapse occurs weeks before the U.$. election. That happens and Trump will gloat and the Dems will sweat.
False flags and internal repression by the mailed fist approach may be in advanced planning stages throughout the collective Wa$te. Imagine the scenario of the Federales employing those trained "migrants" to act as mercenary forces against the most heavily armed population in the world...wilth the possible exception of Switzerland.

Indeed, we do live in interesting times.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jul 25 2024 2:39 utc | 96

Menz | Jul 25 2024 1:43 utc | 94
I was thinking along those lines.

aristodemos | Jul 25 2024 2:39 utc | 96
Amen to all of that.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 25 2024 2:47 utc | 97

- Daniel Davis & Larry Johnson: "Ukraine is FINALLY crumbling" (?????)

Source: https://sonar21.com/ukraine-on-the-ropes-and-bill-binney-on-crowdstrike


(I have heard this many times before so right now I am using A LOT OF salt in order to digest this story).

Posted by: WMG | Jul 25 2024 3:30 utc | 98

Posted by: too scents | Jul 24 2024 14:49 utc | 3
"It is in Trump's interest to continue the war though November so that he can "solve" it with some transaction or other."

As a former president, Trump has no say in any foreign policy decisions. He won't have any authority to stop the war or prolong the war until after he is inaugurated in mid January.

Posted by: Paranaense | Jul 25 2024 3:49 utc | 99

Ukrainians are in trouble near Progres:

Big Serge 25/7/24 1:49AM A clearer picture is starting to emerge on the Ocheretyne axis. The 47th Mechanized Brigade was unable to salvage the defense at Progres due to insufficient infantry, and there are now at least two battalions of the 31st Mechanized at risk of being enveloped. No signs of Russia slowing down on this front. The AFU has lost almost all its positions east of the Vovcha River.

According to Deepstate UA:

The enemy is trying to surround part of the Defense Forces near Progress: there is no order to withdraw
We were approached by soldiers of the 1st and 3rd battalions of the 31st Mechanized Brigade, who have been defending themselves in the encirclement in recent days.

Posted by: Aristonicus | Jul 25 2024 3:55 utc | 100

next page »

The comments to this entry are closed.