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July 20, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-172
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Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (for the period from July 13 to July 19, 2024)
From July 13 to 19, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out 11 group strikes with precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles on enemy air bases, energy facilities that provided the work of enterprises of the defense industry of Ukraine, air defense and electronic warfare of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The locations of the AFU units, echelons with weapons and military equipment, ammunition depots, including those supplied by Western countries, and materiel were also affected. The targets of the strikes have been achieved.
During the week, the units of the North group of forces improved their position along the front edge. They defeated the manpower and equipment of two mechanized, assault and motorized infantry brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, two marine brigades and four air defense brigades. 23 counterattacks by enemy assault groups were repelled.
The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to 1,370 servicemen, five tanks, 25 vehicles, 28 field artillery guns, of which seven 155-mm howitzers of foreign manufacture, as well as seven electronic warfare stations.
Units of the Zapad group of forces, as a result of successful actions, improved the tactical situation and defeated formations of four mechanized, tank, two infantry brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and three air defense brigades. We repelled six counterattacks by enemy assault groups.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 3,920 servicemen, a tank, eight armored combat vehicles, including three M113 armored personnel carriers manufactured in the United States, 46 vehicles, 38 field artillery guns, including twelve 155-mm howitzers produced in NATO countries. In addition, 30 field ammunition depots and six electronic warfare stations were destroyed.
The units of the “Southern” group of troops occupied more advantageous positions and defeated the manpower and equipment of three mechanized, motorized infantry, two airmobile, as well as two airborne assault formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 10 counterattacks of the enemy’s assault groups were repelled.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 3,930 servicemen, a tank, 14 armored combat vehicles, including two M113 armored personnel carriers made in the USA and three HMMWV armored vehicles, as well as 48 vehicles, 71 field artillery guns, 28 of them Western-made. 10 electronic warfare stations and 24 field ammunition depots were destroyed.
As a result of active actions, the units of the Center group of troops liberated the settlement of Yuryevka in the Donetsk People’s Republic. The formations of three mechanized, two motorized infantry, infantry and amphibious assault units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as two air defense brigades, were defeated. 38 counterattacks of enemy units were repelled.
During the week, the losses of the Armed Forces amounted to 2,215 military personnel, 11 armored combat vehicles, including a Bradley infantry fighting vehicle manufactured by the United States, two M113 armored personnel carriers and a MaxxPro armored vehicle manufactured by the United States, 26 vehicles and 27 field artillery guns.
The units of the Vostok group of forces, as a result of successful actions, liberated the village of Urozhodnoye in the Donetsk People’s Republic. They defeated the manpower and equipment of five AFU formations, three air defense brigades and a National Guard brigade. Five counterattacks by enemy units were reflected.
In a week, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 925 servicemen, a tank, three armored combat vehicles, two of them M113 armored personnel carriers manufactured in the United States, 35 vehicles, 26 field artillery guns, of which 19 howitzers and 155-mm self-propelled artillery units produced in NATO countries.
The units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated the formations of two mechanized and mountain assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a marine brigade, as well as three air defense brigades.
The enemy’s losses amounted to 715 soldiers, two tanks, 37 vehicles, and 21 field artillery pieces. Nine electronic warfare stations and 11 field ammunition depots of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed.
During the week, three MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian air Force were shot down by air defense means, eight ATACMS tactical missiles, 10 Hammer guided bombs; an anti-aircraft guided missile of the S-200 complex modified for hitting ground targets, 44 HIMARS rockets, as well as 305 unmanned aerial vehicles of these, 94 are in the airspace of the western regions of the Russian Federation.
The forces of the Black Sea Fleet destroyed 10 unmanned boats in the Black Sea.
During the week, 19 Ukrainian servicemen surrendered on the line of contact.
Posted by: rumod report | Jul 20 2024 9:24 utc | 1
Little Zs pitch becomes higher and more abusive and hysterical.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm52jvn41l7o
Posted by: jpc | Jul 20 2024 9:29 utc | 2
And on the subject of establishing a ^Good working relationship”
I don’t know if quiet the right tone was set.
“In an exclusive interview with the BBC in London, Mr Zelensky said he was willing to work with anyone who was in power in the US.”
Very gracious of him!!
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cxe25prezgzo
Posted by: jpc | Jul 20 2024 9:45 utc | 3
Posted by: jpc | Jul 20 2024 9:45 utc | 3
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, protests erupt on the streets as ukraine civilians demand a solution to the lack of power in their homes and rebels in odessa firebomb AFU press gang vehicles in reaction to the street snatches.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jul 20 2024 10:09 utc | 4
Simplicius’ latest article debunking the latest western ‘press’ claims of Russia imminently running out of tanks, artillery, ammunition and capability of producing only 50 artillery barrels per year.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-71924-west-searches-for-new
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 20 2024 10:12 utc | 5
@jpc
Worth pointing out in detail.
“He was greeted to the cabinet room with a standing ovation from senior ministers.
It was the first time a foreign leader has addressed the cabinet in person since US President Bill Clinton in 1997.
Sir Keir promised to “double down” on support for Ukraine and told Mr Zelensky the “political resolve to stand with Ukraine was not just in Parliament, but across this country”.
He also said he had accepted an invitation to visit Ukraine in the future.
Zelensky has urged Sir Keir Starmer to “show your leadership” by helping to remove restrictions on how Ukraine can use weapons supplied by its western allies.”
Herr Brave Sir Keef Starmztrooper is ready to lead the charge from the rear …
Conscription coming soon to the U.K. – boy is the warmongering going to be a fish slap in the face of the liberal smug Brits as is the totally humiliating defeat and the bodybags of their little darling boy/girls… who will they blame?
Not themselves the fuckwits that the majority of the Dumbed Down aristo worshippers of our Little Britain are.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Jul 20 2024 10:18 utc | 6
@5
Addendum… turns out the western Press claims about Russian conditions are mostly projection of NATO’s condition, again.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 20 2024 10:18 utc | 7
Ukraine Weekly Update, 19th July 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-593
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Jul 20 2024 10:19 utc | 8
DunGroanin | Jul 20 2024 10:18 utc | 6
Major false flag in the making. Those rebel colonies in the Americas have to be pulled back into the fold.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 20 2024 10:22 utc | 9
The recent death of former politician and academic Irina Farion from gunfire, apparently by a lone shooter in his early 20s, near her home in Lvov should serve as a warning to “President” Zelensky that his use-by date is fast approaching. Perhaps he should seriously consider not returning to the Ukraine but stay in the UK. He is rumoured to have bought Highgrove from King Charles III. Hope the garage there is big enough for wife Elena’s Bugatti Tourbillon when it arrives.
Posted by: Refinnejenna | Jul 20 2024 10:38 utc | 10
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 20 2024 10:12 utc | 5
Sometimes simplicius just tries too hard
Still disturbing in some parts the new vs refurbished @20%
Would be 6% of USSR for new production .
Then for large barrels it would be on the sub/near-1000 ballpark
(Not 50-100 but still a low number )
Now, RF has half the population of the USSR, but still to reach the 50% of the ussr proportional output it would have to ramp up military spending 8 times from 6% to 50% GDP . Hardly conceivable short of a total war.
And to match the full USSR it would need 100% (impossible unless it was a Ukraine scenario where an external sponsor basically pays everything for you to just fight)
And yes Prohres might have fallen but I had assumed they would fall to that (more easily defensible ) line right after losing Avdeevka. They held 6 months
Positive point are some “deep salients” (that in previous weeks I called tendrils)
Also the view that drone+artillery beats drones.
Posted by: Newbie | Jul 20 2024 11:06 utc | 11
From Big Serge on his substack
“NATO has communicated that it is not willing to fight an open war with Russia and risk annihilatory nuclear exchange over Ukraine. But by pledging eventual NATO membership for Kiev, they are signaling that they would be willing to do so in the future.
It’s not obvious why Ukraine might be worth fighting a catastrophic war tomorrow, but not today.”
My take:
In the present, NATO has no hypersonics.
In the future, if Dark Eagle succeeds, this can change.
If USA can enhance the product with stealth, the neocon sociopaths will undoubtedly attempt a decapitation nuclear strike.
I note with interest the claim by Prof Postol that Russia lacks advanced satellite detection. And Ukraine attacks on RF terrestrial radar sites.
When these attacks proliferate, RF will be injured to them.
Greetings from Cebu, Philippines
Posted by: necromancer | Jul 20 2024 11:31 utc | 12
I haven’t read it but maybe Simplicius just doesn’t try hard enough! 😀
Beware of the very easy but extremely misleading mistake of comparing the 1940ies and/or the 1980ies up against the 2020ies without considering the enormous changes and such things as new (and often massive) developments in technology, efficiency, quality, and (re-)distribution of abilities/approaches. Not an exhaustive or detailed list.
Using the large artillery barrels as an example:
Rocket artillery (including “flamethrowers”) and “air artillery” (including such as the improved FAB “super-glide-bombs”) does not use barrels at all and both are also far superior for most uses.
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jul 20 2024 11:38 utc | 13
My take:
In the present, NATO has no hypersonics.
In the future, if Dark Eagle succeeds, this can change.
If USA can enhance the product with stealth, the neocon sociopaths will undoubtedly attempt a decapitation nuclear strike.
I note with interest the claim by Prof Postol that Russia lacks advanced satellite detection. And Ukraine attacks on RF terrestrial radar sites.
When these attacks proliferate, RF will be injured to them.
Greetings from Cebu, Philippines
Posted by: necromancer | Jul 20 2024 11:31 utc | 12
I think Martyanov made a video at some point where he said Russia does have a constellation of early warning satellites monitoring sea areas, and as such are not completely dependent on only ground based radars.
Martyanov also commented on the assumed AFU attack on the radar site in Armavir. There never was more than the one picture/video published by some Ukrainian source of the radar that was supposedly damaged. Considering Armavir is a town of nearly 70k people and the site is located visibly from a major highway, it is strange that there was never any more pictures or videos published on this radar other than the one Ukrainian source. As such, the likelihood of the attack actually succeeding is low. But who knows.
It doesn’t mean Nato would not use AFU to make more such attack attempts. But personally I don’t think the radar was damaged due to lack of evidence, and potential photo manipulation of the published picture.
What I do agree is the neocons know they are a generation behind in strategic delivery systems, and if they had this ‘Dark Eagle’ they could attempt something with it. As things stand now, they don’t have a hypersonic cruise missile and therefore are unable to increase such threats. They say they are going to install ‘experimental hypersonic weapons’ in Germany, but it’s likely they don’t have such functioning weapons. The only thing they have currently is the Tomahawk VLS installed on some mobile platform.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 20 2024 11:43 utc | 14
The question concerning Russian lack of —or non-dependency upon— satellites is an interesting one because it is a trait it shares with and inherited from the USSR.
I think it likely means they have (or had re:USSR) something else to rely on instead 🙂
It always intrigued me. No one ever discussed it (that I know of).
Could be plain ignorance on my part but… well 🙂
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jul 20 2024 11:47 utc | 15
DunGroanin | Jul 20 2024 10:18 utc | 6
Major false flag in the making. Those rebel colonies in the Americas have to be pulled back into the fold.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 20 2024 10:22 utc | 9
Peter Dungroanin.
The total detachment from consequences and reality is the part that I wonder about.
The constant use of that oxymoronic term “double down ”
The total refusal to acknowledge the lack of resources to fund or produce what is required.
When is Mr reality going to call and present his credentials?
And in what fashion?
Wimper or a bang?
Posted by: jpc | Jul 20 2024 11:47 utc | 16
Budanov sacrificied her: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp387p1zrgpo
Posted by: Apollyon | Jul 20 2024 11:49 utc | 17
We’re not only provoking a war; we’re also losing the war we provoked.
Posted by: Passerby | Jul 20 2024 11:51 utc | 18
Simplicius’ latest article debunking the latest western ‘press’ claims of Russia imminently running out of tanks, artillery, ammunition and capability of producing only 50 artillery barrels per year.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-71924-west-searches-for-new
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 20 2024 10:12 utc | 5
—————
Impossible, they ran out two years ago remember.
————-
Sometimes simplicius just tries too hard
Still disturbing in some parts the new vs refurbished @20%
Would be 6% of USSR for new production .
Then for large barrels it would be on the sub/near-1000 ballpark
(Not 50-100 but still a low number )
Now, RF has half the population of the USSR, but still to reach the 50% of the ussr proportional output it would have to ramp up military spending 8 times from 6% to 50% GDP . Hardly conceivable short of a total war.
And to match the full USSR it would need 100% (impossible unless it was a Ukraine scenario where an external sponsor basically pays everything for you to just fight)
And yes Prohres might have fallen but I had assumed they would fall to that (more easily defensible ) line right after losing Avdeevka. They held 6 months
Positive point are some “deep salients” (that in previous weeks I called tendrils)
Also the view that drone+artillery beats drones.
Posted by: Newbie | Jul 20 2024 11:06 utc | 11
——————
Not sure about those numbers. The Russians had a disproportionate share of the Soviet MIC, to start with.
Plus ramping up production isn’t nearly as expensive as you seem to think. Even if the RF has to craft new artillery barrel forges from scratch. Ditto for tank hulls.
The technology is both old & well understood by them.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Jul 20 2024 11:52 utc | 19
@14
Russia does not negotiate a new START with US either, for several reasons:
-US is untrustworthy, and broke off the ABM and INF treaties
-US announced the goal of a strategic defeat of Russia
-US is supplying Ukraine with weapons
-US is lacking in the scale of a generation of strategic delivery systems, and would only like Russia to reduce modern weapons and get access to this technology, whereas US reduces what? Obsolete Minuteman 3s? And look at the state of Columbia sub replacements and the Sentinel ICBM programs, hugely over budget and delayed deep into the next decade
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 20 2024 11:52 utc | 20
One unreported aspect of the Clownstrike debacle is the effect it has had on the US military.
IIRC there was strong competition among the 3 main cloud providers (Amazon, Google and Microsoft) for those juicy military, intel and gubbermint contracts.
I hope they didn’t give even more business to the Virus Master.
Posted by: ChatNPC | Jul 20 2024 11:58 utc | 21
On the topic of the drones that picked up here lately, there’s one thing that confuses me. Anecdotal reports from both sides claim the other one has significant drone advantage. Russian sources have been more outspoken and consistent about it, but the other side’s more down to earth sources have been complaining too.
How much of it is local discrepancy where one side prioritizes more drones in a particular sector than the other? How much of it is due to difference in tactical supply approach? I have been suspecting that AFU tends to pile up a ton of drones in priority sectors, leaving many units elsewhere starving, while RUSAF try to supply every squad everywhere with at least something.
Anyone else have an opinion about it?
Posted by: boneless | Jul 20 2024 12:12 utc | 22
https://www.palladiummag.com/2023/06/01/complex-systems-wont-survive-the-competence-crisis/
This guy nails it. Rather long but the US doesn’t discern the trouble it’s in. The greatest IT crash in history happened after this was published. Even deep state assassins aren’t competent anymore!
The danger is that they keep believing their own nonsense and end the world over Ukraine.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 20 2024 12:16 utc | 23
This guy nails it.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 20 2024 12:16 utc | 23
Does he?
… The preference for diversity over competency has made our system of systems dangerously fragile.
Americans living today are the inheritors of systems that created the highest standard of living in human history. Rather than protecting the competency that made those systems possible, the modern preference for diversity has attenuated meritocratic evaluation at all levels of American society. Given the damage already done to competence and morale combined with the natural exodus of baby boomers with decades worth of tacit knowledge, the biggest challenge of the coming decades might simply be maintaining the systems we have today.
Seems to me that he misses entirely.
https://www.ultius.com/images/easyblog_shared/ivy-league-nepotism/ivy-acceptance-rates-legacy-vs-non-legacy.jpg
Posted by: too scents | Jul 20 2024 12:25 utc | 24
@22 boneless
Re: drone concentration
Yes, ukraine will flood hotspots with drones. They have specialized units travelling around in cars sent to swarm russian offensive attempts. I’ve noticed it multiple times already.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 20 2024 12:44 utc | 25
daily german nazipropaganda via welt.de:
Farion was often criticized for having divided Ukrainian society. Russian state propaganda , however, greeted the news of the politician’s death with satisfaction. “Iryna Farion, who dreamed of the ‘complete elimination’ of the Russian-speaking population, has been eliminated. God will sort things out there without us,” wrote Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of the Russian state television channel RT.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Jul 20 2024 13:05 utc | 26
Posted by: Newbie | Jul 20 2024 11:06 utc | 11
#########
You probably had a worthwhile point in there until you ruined it all by talking about GDP.
As Ayn Rand said, “Check your premises”.
GDP is a debt-influenced number that is inflated on political whim. It doesn’t reflect any reality of production or value on the ground.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 20 2024 13:21 utc | 27
The recent death of former politician and academic Irina Farion from gunfire, apparently by a lone shooter in his early 20s, near her home in Lvov should serve as a warning to “President” Zelensky that his use-by date is fast approaching. Perhaps he should seriously consider not returning to the Ukraine but stay in the UK. He is rumoured to have bought Highgrove from King Charles III. Hope the garage there is big enough for wife Elena’s Bugatti Tourbillon when it arrives.
Posted by: Refinnejenna | Jul 20 2024 10:38 utc | 10
And if some of the opposition begins using FPV drones against Ukie politicians and military conscriptors, Z-man’s nervous condition will increase an order of magnitude. Permanent vacation will look like the best possible choice.
Posted by: Mike R | Jul 20 2024 13:29 utc | 28
28
Z-man’s nervous condition will increase an order of magnitude.
the penile piano player comedian has a great sense of humour that is why he is provided jokes by the hilarious german government.
he is mainly based in a blue green screen electronic motion capture film studio in poland.
he leaves the day to day running of the kill machine to the perverts in tel aviv the city of london wall street and washington
Posted by: todd | Jul 20 2024 13:39 utc | 29
Now, RF has half the population of the USSR, but still to reach the 50% of the ussr proportional output it would have to ramp up military spending 8 times from 6% to 50% GDP . Hardly conceivable short of a total war.
Technology hasn’t changed since 1992 eh. You sound like the NATO mathematician who calculated sanctions would be the end of Russia. Seems like utter fucking hubris no?
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 20 2024 13:44 utc | 30
To be tested soon in Ukraine
Raytheon was able to combine the new Patriot radar with the ultra-long-range SM-6 missile
Risks to consider. According to enemy sources, it was possible to combine the new LTAMDS radar with the SM-6 anti-aircraft missile, which is designed to destroy aerodynamic targets at a range of up to 370 km, and is also suitable for intercepting ballistic, aeroballistic and (seemingly) hypersonic missiles in the atmosphere.
The practical benefit of this combination is a multiple increase in the capabilities of the ground-based component of US missile defense and air defense based on existing elements. Because now Patriot can operate GEM-T missiles against aerodynamic targets at a range of up to 160 km, and against ballistic targets, according to various estimates, at 40-60 km.
By integrating SM-6 missiles, it becomes possible not only to significantly expand the range of the air defense system, but also to take over the functions of the THAAD missile defense system, which are very expensive and, in fact, piecemeal.
To launch the SM-6, Mk41 launchers are required, initially shipborne, but stationary and mobile versions already exist. Therefore, we should expect a change in the format of the Patriot complex to include larger “containerized” launchers, which will result in a fairly flexible and modular system capable of hitting various targets at long distance.
Posted by: Boo | Jul 20 2024 13:48 utc | 31
NATO and the frothing at the mouth Maerican dipshits might as well say they are deploying the Death Star and robot armies to Germany for all the fucking talk of nonexistent weapons. They cancelled Sentinel, the f35 is a flying coffin, two separate hypersonic projects have failed. The US military with a penis envy problem is now openly threatening to deploy weapons directly from its imagination.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 20 2024 13:48 utc | 32
(Drones) …. A really burning issue. Moreover, I have seen public assessments from our side that say 1/6, 1/10 in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and approximately the same mirror assessments in our favor, from the enemy. Well, non-public assessments come down to the fact that plus or minus equal quantities.
But what is the enemy’s strong point is decentralization of production, which greatly complicates the possibility of their defeat, up to manufacturing at home and in garages using a diagram and components. This allowed them to significantly increase the volume of assembly.
And they also have the opportunity to take components not only in China, and not save on them. Due to this, some models are significantly more expensive than ours, but also higher efficiency. True, it is difficult to estimate how much, whether such an increase in cost makes sense. But since they do not count money, they are given it, then of course you can afford to put the most expensive elements.
The tactics of use are also noticeably different, which also creates the impression of superiority in the number of drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. That is, a free hunting mode one after another, which gives a lot of empty launches, in contrast to our more careful use, when reconnaissance and attack drones are separated. This has its pros and cons, so only an analysis of practice can give a verdict on which path is more rational.
In our case, ultimately, it is necessary to strive to localize critical components, chips, neodymium magnets, in order to be able to preserve this new industry in the event of any force majeure with a single supplier. Moreover, this will inevitably lead to an increase in the cost of the product, because miracles do not happen. Therefore, it is important to realize this, since as it develops, there will be emotional notes, pressure and manipulation. This, alas, is also an inevitable process of growth from the garage level of the national military-industrial complex to serious enterprises of our defense industry.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 20 2024 13:53 utc | 33
To launch the SM-6, Mk41 launchers are required
Posted by: Boo | Jul 20 2024 13:48 utc | 31
—
The SM-6 is called AIM-174 when it is air launched.
In the RIMPAC 2024 naval exercise, the USN showed off its new AIM-174 air combat missile, which appears to be an air-launched version of the SM-6 anti-air missile used on American warships.
https://youtu.be/HlOhf7Fqp6Q
Posted by: too scents | Jul 20 2024 13:56 utc | 34
Jake Sullivan said today that USA is going to allow Ukraine to attack targets deep in Russian territory.
The West is escalating again.
Their escalation possibilities seem to be endless.
Posted by: vargas | Jul 20 2024 14:00 utc | 35
Reposted here from the previous thread:
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 20 2024 11:26 utc | 451
There is nothing common between the CCCP and the European Empire. The latter is a Nietzschean project to destroy Russia. It surfaced immediately after WW2 led by former nazis.
All leading western politicians are corrupt. It began in 1983 in France for instance.
Posted by: Naive | Jul 20 2024 13:55 utc | 453
And the CCCP was destroyed from within by traitors, of course also corrupt.
Please read the document: “Collateral damage”: Collateral_Damage_911.pdf
Posted by: Naive | Jul 20 2024 14:04 utc | 36
Not sure about those numbers. The Russians had a disproportionate share of the Soviet MIC, to start with.
Plus ramping up production isn’t nearly as expensive as you seem to think. Even if the RF has to craft new artillery barrel forges from scratch. Ditto for tank hulls.
The technology is both old & well understood by them.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Jul 20 2024 11:52 utc | 19
You probably had a worthwhile point in there until you ruined it all by talking about GDP.
As Ayn Rand said, “Check your premises”.
GDP is a debt-influenced number that is inflated on political whim. It doesn’t reflect any reality of production or value on the ground.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 20 2024 13:21 utc | 27
I just mentioned that ramping up production to proportionate USSR levels would probably divert up to 50% of the economy (GDP as a common usage term)
That is not surprising as still in SMO phase I would say current military expenses will be close to 15% GDP in 2024.
BTW it is only possible because RF has “hard GDP” with real economy and industry
And that is the main reason why Putin has to balance and go slow on the AFU.
It has expenses of the SMO itself and re-investment in some mothballed military industries.
Posted by: Newbie | Jul 20 2024 14:07 utc | 37
Re: drone concentration
Yes, ukraine will flood hotspots with drones. They have specialized units travelling around in cars sent to swarm russian offensive attempts. I’ve noticed it multiple times already.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 20 2024 12:44 utc | 25
—————–
Fits the volksgrenadier & real troops pattern of the AFU.
Of course drone operators get used up too, when acting as fire-brigades. As always the lack of trained manpower is the real issue, not equipment. Although they have issues there too.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Jul 20 2024 14:11 utc | 38
If USA can enhance the product with stealth, the neocon sociopaths will undoubtedly attempt a decapitation nuclear strike.
Posted by: necromancer | Jul 20 2024 11:31 utc | 12
A nuclear decapitation strike against Russia by the USA wouldn’t a good idea.
You are assuming that the Russians have the same nuclear weapons use protocols that the USA where only the president has the authority to use nuclear weapons. That was Harry Trumans idea … not Stalins. A decapitation strike is only relevant if the decapitation can be achieved without the total destruction of your civilization … in Russia’s case it can’t. The Russians anticipated this scenario some time ago and have a system named “perimeter” or “dead hand” where a launch orders are automatically sent to all Russian ICBM units and submarines in the event of a successful strike against the kremlin.
stealth™ technology may no longer be effective against modern radars as the Russians have been able to track and shoot down storm shadow missiles as well as JASSM missiles in Syria.
Millennium 7 * HistoryTech did a piece on the current state of stealth™ just the other day https://youtu.be/ffGQLnlXks4?si=1JA-7hu_lGgaZHwx
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 20 2024 14:11 utc | 39
I think Martyanov made a video at some point where he said Russia does have a constellation of early warning satellites monitoring sea areas, and as such are not completely dependent on only ground based radars.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 20 2024 11:43 utc | 14
If it’s the Kanopus (very small) constelation it only gives a 20 km band every 4 hours (at the time I checked the orbit for the 6 of them)
I would expect that the chinese, not lest to avoid being caught in the middle, probably share their bigger resources with RF.
Posted by: Newbie | Jul 20 2024 14:12 utc | 40
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 20 2024 10:12 utc | 5
On another site, someone predicted that Russia will run out of tanks in next October and will be forced to leave.
How stupid to think that armies are still figting like during WW2. Now the last attacking devices are motorcycles. And it works.
Posted by: Naive | Jul 20 2024 14:18 utc | 41
Now, RF has half the population of the USSR, but still to reach the 50% of the ussr proportional output it would have to ramp up military spending 8 times from 6% to 50% GDP . Hardly conceivable short of a total war.
Technology hasn’t changed since 1992 eh. You sound like the NATO mathematician who calculated sanctions would be the end of Russia. Seems like utter fucking hubris no?
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 20 2024 13:44 utc | 30
In hard industry? Much less than inflated GDP numbers seem to imply.
Take a boeing 747 , costed 12 M in 1968, before discontinuation a couple of years ago it was almost hitting 500 M
That’s why a big war would mean a huge sacrifice (but doable) for RF and “cheap” for china.
For the west (except maybe SK) there is no way to turn IP, real estate and finance GDP into cannons.
Posted by: Newbie | Jul 20 2024 14:24 utc | 42
In the latest simplicius there is a picture of the processor board of an American ATACMS missile. Looks ancient.
Posted by: Passerby | Jul 20 2024 14:36 utc | 43
And yes Prohres might have fallen but I had assumed they would fall to that (more easily defensible ) line right after losing Avdeevka. They held 6 months
Positive point are some “deep salients” (that in previous weeks I called tendrils)
Also the view that drone+artillery beats drones.
Posted by: Newbie | Jul 20 2024 11:06 utc | 11
Jacques Baud was on Daniel Davis deep dive the other day talking about a new article in RUSI and Russia’s strategy in Ukraine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWHc33HWMMI
The Russians are still in the first phase of a 2 phase plan. In this phase they don’t take any ground they can’t walk into. They focus on 2 things. First destroy the enemies capacity to fight and second preserve their manpower. Back in October 2022 when Sergey Surovikin took command of the SMO it was estimated that it would take at least 2 1/2 years to complete this phase. The length of time they are taking is by design … the slow pace preserves Russian forces and causes strain on the Ukrainian population.
The second phase is an exploitation phase. The Russians have an armoured reserve deployed for the exploitation and it grows every month but I believe they are hoping for a negotiated settlement / coup / surrender before they set the dogs loose. Regardless they still have to break through the Donbas Arc defensive fortifications that the Ukrainians built over 10 years. You can pour a LOT of concrete in 10 years and before that the Soviets built fortifications meant to fight a nuclear war … these are some of the most formidable defensive structures ever built.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 20 2024 14:38 utc | 44
In the latest Simplicius blog there is a picture of the processor board of an American ATACMS missile. Am I wrong or do the electronics look “vintage”.
Posted by: Passerby | Jul 20 2024 14:43 utc | 45
“Russian tactical aircraft, drone teams, missile forces and artillery units destroyed two launchers and an AN/MPQ-65 radar of the US-made Patriot missile system” ( tass.com/defense/1819261 )
Posted by: rk | Jul 20 2024 14:44 utc | 46
do the electronics look “vintage”.
Posted by: Passerby | Jul 20 2024 14:43 utc | 45
—
Pictured is an Intel i960 MC processor. Launched ’88, discontinued ’07
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_i960#80960MC
Posted by: too scents | Jul 20 2024 14:52 utc | 47
Posted by: Boo | Jul 20 2024 13:48 utc | 31
Re. SM-6 and Patriot system. An increase to 370km range would increase the AD capability for sure. However, the new article by Marat Khairullin implied that the Iskander will be increasing to far beyond 500km. So theoretically the SM-6 frankenSAM can be placed further behind but still possible to locate and destroy with Iskanders.
Either way it’s unlikely to make a significant difference as the ready numbers will remain small for AFU, and the increased range will most likely be utilized by placing the launchers much further beyond the front, mitigating the newly achieved range benefit.
Meanwhile, Ukraine won’t hold together long enough for all these new Nato sandbox tests to make a meaningful difference. They are just playing around and trying to create new Frankstein systems out of existing weapons instead of making clean sheet designs. Which is probably a good thing for Russia.
It might also imply that US could even be unable to make a new clean-sheet SAM system and gear up production. Or if they could, it could take a very long time which they don’t really have in the face of other issues.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 20 2024 15:08 utc | 48
In the latest Simplicius blog there is a picture of the processor board of an American ATACMS missile. Am I wrong or do the electronics look “vintage”.
Posted by: Passerby | Jul 20 2024 14:43 utc | 45
What’s “vintage”? ATACMs was designed in 1986 and first deployed in 1991. I would say it’s of that vintage
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 20 2024 15:14 utc | 49
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 20 2024 15:08 utc | 48
It’s also a lot more expensive to use the SM-6 missile, for now, but this frankenSAM as you put it is just one of the many attempts for AD neutralisation of the Iskanders and will continue for sure.
Posted by: Boo | Jul 20 2024 15:34 utc | 50
https://t.me/milinfolive/126402
A selection of our most interesting news and materials for yesterday that you might have missed:
– Deputy Defense Minister Alexei Krivoruchko met with Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang.
– In the draft German budget for 2025, military assistance to Ukraine has been reduced from 8 billion euros to 4 billion euros.
– Former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, accused of receiving a bribe on a particularly large scale, refused to make a deal with the investigation and pleaded not guilty.
– Russian attack aircraft were entrenched in the important village of Progress to the west of Ocheretino.
– The enemy writes that the Russian Armed Forces began to use a variety of balloons to organize radio communication.
– Defense Minister Andrey Belousov assured at a meeting with military correspondents that shelters for aviation at airfields would be built, Komsomolskaya Pravda writes.
#digest
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 20 2024 15:38 utc | 51
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 20 2024 15:38 utc | 51
– Russian attack aircraft were entrenched in the important village of Progress to the west of Ocheretino.
LOL not Russian attack aircraft, but Russian attack forces, stormtroopers.
Don’t you proofread the machine translation before posting?
Posted by: hopehely | Jul 20 2024 16:06 utc | 52
Posted by: hopehely | Jul 20 2024 16:06 utc | 52
Infantry often translates as fighter bombers but I don’t bother to correct idioms.
Ivanov, balloons and aircraft shelters caught my eye. On Ivanov, two witnesses who might have been key to charges against him recently died on the same day.
LOL?
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 20 2024 16:21 utc | 53
Posted by: Passerby | Jul 20 2024 14:43 utc | 45
In the latest Simplicius blog there is a picture of the processor board of an American ATACMS missile. Am I wrong or do the electronics look “vintage”.
It says the manufacturing date is 2002, a military electronics is typically on a conservative side, it looks about right.
Posted by: hopehely | Jul 20 2024 16:23 utc | 54
reply to 24
r
As to the future of competence in the US, I tend to see the manifest privilege of the rich and well born as making things worse. So, if some diversity is neglected in the House Of Lords educational system, his central point is confirmed.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 20 2024 16:25 utc | 55
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 20 2024 16:21 utc | 53
> LOL?
A Russian attack aircraft was entrenched in the village… it is funny.
And about LOL, OK, it was more a silent giggle LOL
Relax друже
Posted by: hopehely | Jul 20 2024 16:37 utc | 56
Budanov sacrificied her: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp387p1zrgpo
Posted by: Apollyon | Jul 20 2024 11:49 utc | 17
What would Budanov have against a member of Svoboda who doesn’t think Russian should be spoken in Ukraine?
Posted by: Cheney | Jul 20 2024 16:37 utc | 57
A couple of posts saying that both Ukrainian and Russian FPVs are using hobbyist ELRS comms modules, which are western tech, that Ukraine has an edge in fuse designs but the drones are assembled directly from Chinese controllers, motors, drivers etc.
https://t.me/UAVDEV/6857
Actually, the pigs have long since ripped off the ELRS and are producing them for random frequencies, but such receivers are rare.
It is also worth noting that these receivers cannot go below 420 without a complete redesign of the circuitry, and not just recalculating the contours, as is now the case.
Continuing the theme of Ukrainian boards.
The subscriber threw in more photos with a trident, but all of these are not Ukrainian developments, but simply branded Chinese products. And, unlike communications, without the slightest changes from the original.
And there are none in radio communications – other denominations of about five parts, and even then made by the Chinese, this is not a development.
For the sake of fairness, our communications, which Agent Flash complains about, are made exactly the same.
There are no problems when ordering 1000+ boards to ask a Chinese manufacturer to place their logo on it, or to reverse a well-known module (speedyby, for example) and release it under their own brand, although it remains speedyby with beta.
There are no changes in the circuitry of these boards and this trident does not give anything except show-off.
The only truly original things the pigs have are the detonation systems. Here they are ahead of us by at least a year, but not because of technological superiority, but because of the oakiness of our end user.
By the way, for those who didn’t know, requirements have been developed for the pigs’ detonation systems, and there are certified and uncertified detonation systems.
Think about it: a certified detonation system of private development, without secrecy, 5 years of state testing, millions of dollars and all that.
Until we have similar work with a private contractor, we will never surpass anyone in anything.
https://www.anyleaf.org/blog/expresslrs-overview
…
Communications modes
ELRS supports 2 RF communications standards: LoRa, and Fast Long Range Communication (FLRC). FLRC has lower latency, while LoRa has longer range and better resistance to RF interference. For each of these protocols, ELRS supports several update rates. LoRA capable of up to 500Hz, and FLRC up to 1000Hz.
…
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 20 2024 16:41 utc | 58
HB_Norica | Jul 20 2024 14:38 utc | 44
I have noticed the periodic train loads of armour and other Russian equipment heading to the front. Was never sure if that was replacement for equipment that had been destroyed damaged or worn out, or that they were also building up a large armoured/mechanized force to exploit future openings.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 20 2024 16:49 utc | 59
Jake Sullivan said today that USA is going to allow Ukraine to attack targets deep in Russian territory.
The West is escalating again.
Their escalation possibilities seem to be endless.
Posted by: vargas | Jul 20 2024 14:00 utc |
The US and NATO is getting too comfortable with escalation without consequences.
When the the Russians respond to the instigators not the pawns and proxies.
What then?
Posted by: jpc | Jul 20 2024 17:00 utc | 60
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 20 2024 16:49 utc | 59
I think it’s partly evidence of the Russian weaponisation of SM, when armies strategically relocate, they rarely do it in broad daylight. The tank train footage was particularly noticeable when the Russians were stripping the Kharkov Front to defeat the Kherson push and a variation was used when the Ukrainians, thanks to Western ISR, discovered the move and attacked. Suddenly, footage appeared suggesting massive reinforcements were heading to that sector, when in reality a handful of para-military police saved the day. This led to numerous SM commentators predicting Ukraine were walking into an ambush, when the front was virtually empty, with the only units being rushed forward being ACRV’s to coordinate delaying fires.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 20 2024 17:02 utc | 61
Milites | Jul 20 2024 17:02 utc | 61
It could well be. I find I have started to thing of WWII in Europe by the Russian/Soviet name – the great patriotic war as the eastern front is the main area of that war.
What you mention there, the Soviets perfected it in the great patriotic war, and that war is the birth place of the current Russian Federation military.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 20 2024 17:23 utc | 62
The orange man [Mr T] won’t stop the war and meatgrinder in country 404 [former Ukraine] if elected in November but rather intensify it. For instance, the clown Boris Johnson has said to Mr T that a defeat for Ukraine would be a massive defeat for America. It is not just about the extinction of freedom and democracy, those cardinal American values, and the enslavement of the Ukrainian people — though that result would be grim in itself. In turn, the comedian and former Ukraine president V. Zelensky has said after having a call with Mr T “We have agreed to discuss in a personal meeting exactly what steps can make peace fair and truly lasting,“. Last but not least Orban has said that the US-led neo NAZI nato and western lackeys want to continue with the war.
Posted by: AI | Jul 20 2024 17:26 utc | 63
AI | Jul 20 2024 17:26 utc | 63
The American power structure/deep state don’t give a flying f@ck about bojo. The Americans are not going to put more treasure into a failed project.
They are content to let the Brits and Eros destroy themselves taking down Russia.
Their eyes are now firmly fixed on China.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 20 2024 17:34 utc | 64
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 20 2024 16:49 utc | 59
According to Jacque Baud the Russians are using what he described as a “high / low mix” of weapons in the SMO with the low end being battle taxies, turtle tanks, dirt bikes, drones, towed artillery … which are basically throw away items they expect to lose on operations like crossing over no mans land to take objectives and high end weapons like Iskanders, air defences, mobile artillery, EW and their most modern armoured vehicles which are used as combined arms strike weapons or reserved for exploitation.
Those expendable weapons are to be sacrificed in order to fight aggressively while preserving manpower.
He says NATO have all high end equipment and zero low end equipment in their inventories. Their armies are designed to fight a war of manuever not a war of attrition where you accept that you will take losses to achieve victory. They figured all future wars would look like the gulf war.
The lesson here as I see it is it’s strategy and adaptability that wins wars not technology. Russia has excellent military schools and can draw on nearly a thousand years of war fighting experience. Any pentagon general who believes they know the “russian playbook” is delusional.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 20 2024 17:35 utc | 65
HB_Norica | Jul 20 2024 17:35 utc | 65
Thanks. That bit by Baud certainly fits with what I have been seeing.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 20 2024 17:42 utc | 66
And to match the full USSR it would need 100% (impossible unless it was a Ukraine scenario where an external sponsor basically pays everything for you to just fight..
Posted by: Newbie | Jul 20 2024 11:06 utc | 11
China would do just that if it came down to it. Russia is essential if it wishes to protect itself from US Imperialism.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jul 20 2024 17:52 utc | 67
This guy nails it.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 20 2024 12:16 utc | 23
Does he?
… The preference for diversity over competency has made our system of systems dangerously fragile.
Americans living today are the inheritors of systems that created the highest standard of living in human history. Rather than protecting the competency that made those systems possible, the modern preference for diversity has attenuated meritocratic evaluation at all levels of American society. Given the damage already done to competence and morale combined with the natural exodus of baby boomers with decades worth of tacit knowledge, the biggest challenge of the coming decades might simply be maintaining the systems we have today.
Seems to me that he misses entirely.
https://www.ultius.com/images/easyblog_shared/ivy-league-nepotism/ivy-acceptance-rates-legacy-vs-non-legacy.jpg
Posted by: too scents | Jul 20 2024 12:25 utc | 24
Well, diversity is a strength in it itself. That’s true. The Romans used it to good effect.
However exaggerated this author is about the effect of idpol on the west (may want to look at the hollowed out economy, the oligarchical control of politics and the decline of basic education and culture too), he is not totally wrong. There are many high officials with great power in the US that are there solely or at least primarily because they are black, Hispanic, gay or a woman. It might make some self loathing white petty bourgeois happy, but that does present a serious problem over the long term.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jul 20 2024 18:01 utc | 68
It could well be. I find I have started to thing of WWII in Europe by the Russian/Soviet name – the great patriotic war as the eastern front is the main area of that war.
What you mention there, the Soviets perfected it in the great patriotic war, and that war is the birth place of the current Russian Federation military.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 20 2024 17:23 utc | 62
An important and often overlooked fact. Putin is himself a product of the USSR.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jul 20 2024 18:04 utc | 69
Nato has “high-end” equipment compared to men in slippers. The only thing they have is the money printer. It buys propaganda, puppets and proxies. And they have RF, the only country where you can explode anything and cluster a beach for free, they’re afraid of an actor and a drone.
Posted by: rk | Jul 20 2024 18:19 utc | 70
@65
High cost weapons that run out of money to buy repair processes are unsuited to war against a peer. Even if the weapons work as ordered.
Russia is following “kessel” tactics at the strategic level.
That is get UKUSstan and the continental poodles to commit high priced scarce system to kill sacks, even better 6000 miles from supply depots.
Russia and China could not make it better
Posted by: paddy | Jul 20 2024 18:20 utc | 71
The Farion assassination may be a coincidence. (Those who don’t believe in coincidence are innumerate at best.) But if not? Assassination of leaders is not even a strategy as Charlotte Corday proved to the world some time back. It’s not even a reliable tactic. Of itself, it is likely to be as significant as the assassination of Dugina, meaning, not. If any Russian player contributed, it was stupid, which is worse than immoral according to Talleyrand. If any Ukrainian was behind it—I gathered so far the assailant got away?—it could be highly symptomatic of someone wanting to forestall her return to effective politics?
There are however numerous parties in Ukraine that might fixate on her rabid program, Rusyns, Roma and Sinti, Hungarians, Tatars, Poles, as well as ethnic Russians/Russian-language speakers. Zelensky of course has as much to fear from such as Farion did, plus more committed anti-Semites who can’t overlook Zelensky’s foreskin, no matter how much money he brings in and how much political cover for fascism he provides. Watch this space, as they say.
The notion that the Russian army is the Red Army of today is nonsense. The Red Army fought fascists in Leningrad and Stalingrad. The Russian army of today was born out of the fall of Leningrad and Stalingrad. Political goals, political role and political control are key to every modern army as Clausewitz taught, correctly.
Despite the claims of being able to read the (nonexistent) collective mind of the power structure/deep state, who allegedly don’t care about losing, the people in power very much care about being seen as a loser. Like Nixon with his secret “plan” to end the Vietnam war, the orange God won’t want to be seen as losing Ukraine. This is all the more true because the universal hostility of the MSM to Biden dates back to the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Trump, no matter what delusions his worshippers have, has always benefited from vigorous support from one faction of the MSM. He does not want to have all factions against him. One faction, okay, he can whine about being martyred. But not all of them. Nixon dragged out Vietnam his entire presidency, just making sure US soldier casualty rates went down. That was built into Ukraine from day one. No, there’s zero reason to think Trump will end Ukraine when his minion Mike Johnson has already acted to make sure it continues till 2025!
Lastly, the notion that PRC is committed to Russia/Putin as is because of the objective need to defend itself against imperialism is insufficient, thus misleading. Unless you have superstitious notions about Xi as some Hegelian Hero of World history or some similar Great Man, or idealist delusions about the innate essence of Chinese civilizational struggle, it must be acknowledged that all modern states have factions and generally have class divisions of some sort to some degree too. These vested interests can and historically have engaged in efforts to make deals that benefitted themselves, despite the overall cost to their people as a whole. Indeed, decisions for war should be regarded as the prima facie case for this claim. The fact that in the long run most such efforts also fail even for the faction is only as relevant as the far-sightedness of the ruling class reaches…which in my reading of history is usually not very far. (Not personally privy to their deliberations, I admit, unlike some exceedingly well-informed contributors here.) As is, they openly say they want’ “win-win” solutions, aka compromise, deals. They even verbally commit to expanding capitalism indefinitely. The “if” in if China wants to defend itself against imperialism, is a bigger “if” than realized. Or so it seems.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jul 20 2024 18:28 utc | 72
Ukrainian Rada member and Banderist https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iryna_Farion
Shot dead this morning in Lviv.
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 20 2024 18:29 utc | 73
… they have RF, the only country where you can explode anything and cluster a beach for free, they’re afraid of an actor and a drone.
Posted by: rk | Jul 20 2024 18:19 utc | 70
#######
Friend, are you ok? Do you need a hug?
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 20 2024 18:32 utc | 74
An important and often overlooked fact, Putin is a committed anti-Communist.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jul 20 2024 18:43 utc | 75
An accurate strike by the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed the entire British sabotage elite in Odessa
The Russian army acts “neatly”in the free defense zone. The main directions are the Development of the Yar, its environment so that they (APU. — Ed.) eventually left it.
These are actions in the Kharkiv region-the constant maintenance of tension with the readiness to surround this city. The third direction is strikes on various objects on the territory of Ukraine. This was stated in an interview on the channel “Aesthetics of Theory” by Konstantin Sivkov, full member of the Academy of Military Sciences, Vice-President of the Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences for Information Policy.
According to him, two days ago there was a strike by the Russian Aerospace Forces on Odessa, as a result of which an entire unit of British SAS special forces soldiers was destroyed — “underwater saboteurs, the elite of the British sabotage community.”
As noted by Konstantin Sivkov, it was reported that as a result of a very accurate strike by the Russian Aerospace Forces, 18 British special forces were killed and 25 more wounded.
“What is most interesting is that the investigators who arrived at the scene spoke exclusively in English. That is, they (the British. – Ed.) no longer trust the SBU. There is information that all the data was transmitted by Ukrainian servicemen… Sabotage is already underway… They revealed the place and time that they killed the entire British sabotage elite, “Sivkov said, adding that”there are very few such specialists, there are 100-120 people in the whole country (Great Britain).” “It was a very serious blow not to Ukraine, but to Britain,” he stressed.
According to Sivkov, the aggressive decisions taken at the last NATO summit on the readiness to wage war with Russia on the territory of Ukraine and use military aviation indicate that they clearly understand that the last critical moment is coming for globalists.
“If they don’t solve the problem with Russia now, they will be really finished. In a multipolar world, they will find themselves on the margins of history. Well, who will accept them? Will the Chinese accept them? Will the Arabs accept them? No, if they lose, that’s all, they’ll be told, please be on equal terms with us. And they can’t be on an equal footing. Therefore, we must fight. The situation is simple. They really need to fight, but they are afraid and have nothing to fight with. That is, it is difficult to create a powerful group capable of crushing the Russian army. But I really want to. And their condition is stressful, ” says Konstantin Sivkov.
In these circumstances, the military expert continued, Russian President Vladimir Putin “must solve on the one hand the task of defeating Ukraine, but at the same time not give a reason for these freaks (NATO members. – Ed.) hysteria began and against this background they would not have started a war against Russia, which will quickly escalate into a global nuclear phase.”
“In these conditions, our troops act very slowly, moving carefully. Recently, there was a very successful offensive with the liberation of a number of villages, and this immediately caused panic. And at the NATO summit, this certain hysterical state of Western elites from the small tactical successes of the Russian army undoubtedly played a role,” said Konstantin Sivkov.
According to him, if peace is achieved in Ukraine for at least 2-3 years, the West may find itself in a position where it will be necessary to think not about the war with Russia, but about its own survival.
“When the West is cut off from its neocolonies, and judging by Africa, this can happen very quickly, it will have huge problems with the economy. Once the neocolonial system collapses, Western civilization as we know it will disappear in a matter of decades. People will remain, nations will remain, no one will kill them, but without free raw materials, they will not be able to maintain their standard of living,” Sivkov concluded.
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2024/07/a-notable-article.html#comment-6508447735
Posted by: larchpost | Jul 20 2024 18:45 utc | 76
An important and often overlooked fact, Putin is a committed anti-Communist.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jul 20 2024 18:43 utc | 75
Not really. He leans right to communism, but calling him “committed” is hyperbole.
In his autobiography, “First Person” he talks very briefly about his first experiences with capitalism, in a comical way. To whit, “and that was my first experience with capitalism”, when he talks of a casino taxation scheme that seemed brilliant but totally flopped.
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 20 2024 18:48 utc | 77
@38 urban fox
Re:drones
It seems like drone supplies are quite adequate. I’ve also watched a few videos where they shoot shells after watching the operators drive up to and hide in a random building(and someone hides the car) then they get hit.
My guess is that best drone units suffer appreciable attrition as well.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 20 2024 18:49 utc | 78
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 20 2024 17:23 utc | 62
Yup, I’ve written several posts on what I call the Emil Kio strategy of deception, after the famous Russian illusionist who performed in a circus ring, allowing the audience a 360 degree view of his act. Misdirection was therefore a key part of his act, making his audience focus on what he wanted them to, same with the Russian use of SM and the constant movement, by rail, of units often in full public view. Kio used to make elephants disappear or his assistant, suspended from a cage, the RAF make divisions appear and re-appear hundreds of km’s away, or behind enemy lines via a ‘tunnel’.
Conversely, Ukraine are so desperate to project success they regularly release footage that breaches Opsec (example last year showing drone footage showing a distinct terrain feature) or launch offensives that have been heavily promoted beforehand. Again, more indicators of the varying states of the incline, decline cycle, between the two combatants, and the holder of operational initiative. Hint, it a’int the Ukrainians, who have largely squandered their superlative Western ISR assets and allowed Russia to hone her act.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 20 2024 18:53 utc | 79
On some parts of the front the ukros definitely have got the upper hand in drones as this report show
Military correspondent Dmitry Steshin – about the “positional impasse” on the front line and the lack of means to suppress drones:
“The first time I couldn’t get to the LBS due to a critical number of buzzing creatures in the air. The shelling was easily endured, I’ve done this a hundred times, the drones didn’t. They couldn’t even come towards me. And I really don’t like this situation – the dill naturally cuts and cuts down the supply routes of the attacking group, so everything is so slow, dreary, without deep breakthroughs on the enemy’s shoulders, etc., no one knows what to do; targeted ones have no therapeutic effect. sometimes they just do harm – you install powerful electronic warfare, switch to tapikas, if they are available and the signalmen are ready. If you install weak electronic warfare, they begin to knock it out, attacking with two or three drones from unexpected directions. What’s the point of knocking out dill from positions if you are not in those positions. can you really occupy it by providing transportation and rotation? I think this is what a “positional impasse” might look like in the 21st century.”
MIG Russia: live progressively, not anyhow. Subscribe.
Posted by: Boo | Jul 20 2024 19:39 utc | 80
If anyone has a link to a map of Vuhledar and environs, would you kindly post it.
Posted by: chet380 | Jul 20 2024 19:57 utc | 81
Posted by: necromancer | Jul 20 2024 11:31 utc | 12
You write:-
From Big Serge on his substack
“NATO has communicated that it is not willing to fight an open war with Russia and risk annihilatory nuclear exchange over Ukraine. But by pledging eventual NATO membership for Kiev, they are signaling that they would be willing to do so in the future.
It’s not obvious why Ukraine might be worth fighting a catastrophic war tomorrow, but not today.”
……………………………………….
I never thought of that possibility. Perhaps Big Serge should have written, “threaten” to fight a nuclear war. Because even the threat is a powerful weapon in the armoury and the West is in no position to deploy that threat as things are.
But in any case it’s all theory. All hypothetical. Ukraine will not be part of NATO and nor will it be open in future to being used by the West as a means of aggression against the RF. It will be neutralised. That’s been written in stone since day one of the SMO. That’s what “demilitarisation and denazification” means. That was the declared Russian intention from the start and though there have been plenty of thrills and spills along the way that’s how it was always going to end up.
Given that this war is being fought in Russia’s back yard and that gives it, to use Obama’s term, “escalatory dominance”, the puzzle is why anyone ever thought different.
Time to look at how things will go afterwards. On that there may be a ray of hope peeping out. I got thoroughly disillusioned with Trump in the years after 2016. Nothing, literally nothing, seemed to pan out the way it was supposed to. US foreign policy – and in reality that means Western foreign policy – remained firmly stuck in the old ways. It was almost as if the 2016 Trump had disappeared.
I read the Bloomberg interview and thought “He’s back”. For me, an Englishman, Trump’s always been on the difficult side. Heaps of razzmatazz and impossibly larger than life. But I always liked his foreign policy. And I think I’m correct in thinking that that Bloomberg interview sets out the real 2016 Trump in that respect. I wrote about that a day or so back and having had time to think it over, I feel even more certain now:-
And Russian armourers reportedly painting “this one’s for Trump” on those long range bombs while the Azov types regret the shooter missed. Zelensky and the Europeans in a flat spin now Vance is down for VP, and long faces among the neocon faction in Washington.
Though Biden’s decision not to allow deep strikes had cut the ground from under their feet already. No more escalation. Too risky. For us, never mind the other seven billion. Somewhere, maybe deep in the bowels of the Pentagon, straight reality has shouldered the make-believe aside. Project Ukraine has been abandoned.
It was never a runner, that project. From February 24th 2022 on the puzzle has been why it was ever thought to be. Russian intentions and actions were as clear as day from then on. No puzzle there. Just a few loose ends to be tidied up when we know more afterwards. But what were the Western politicians up to, hoping they could get away with such an enterprise? Could be we’ll never know for sure. It was a strange mix of triumphalist hubris and spectacular incompetence the historians will be attempting to disentangle for ever.
Strange too, living through such a time. So strange, for an Englishman, suddenly finding himself living in a country of mindless suckers. Or were my fellow countrymen, my fellow Europeans too, in truth just suckers? It was so easy, getting us howling for Russian blood. Too easy. What lies deep in the European psyche for nearly all of us to be so ready for such primitive and unthinking hate?
Strange too, watching the project crumble. From the first wild hopes of dismembering the RF itself. To the more limited hope of killing as many Russians as possible. Repulsive, that, because the hate did not go as far as risking our own lives killing Russians. We sat comfortable at home letting the Ukrainians to do it for us. They were the ones to be fed into the killing fields. Not us.
And now the project has crumbled further. The blood sacrifice of Ukrainians is nevertheless to be prolonged if possible until the next election is over. Tens of thousands more must die to give some politicians in the States a chance of avoiding the electoral defeat that’s likely coming their way anyway. And, maybe, because the necessity of saving face outweighs those countless unconsidered lives. For us.
We’re seeing in Gaza too that terminal moral blindness of the West. What are crushed bodies and wrecked families to us? Ukrainian, Palestinian, Russian – a mere video screen spectacle. A satisfying Hollywood spectacular as we dutifully chant our songs of hatred. It is well that it is being put out of the power of the West to maintain so dishonourable a hegemony, now we have discovered it’s too risky, not for them, but for us. How squalid, that it should take that discovery to check the mayhem.
It is well, too, that that shot at candidate Trump failed of its purpose. Those Russian armourers spoke truer than they knew. We have been well taught, in Europe, to hate that man. So most of us do because we’re good at hate. But when I read the prosaic content of the recent Bloomberg interview I do not think I am wrong in seeing, in that monumental figure bloodied but defiant on that stage in Pennsylvania, the last hope of sanity for the West. Maybe others will read it that way too. I hope enough do.
Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 20 2024 20:19 utc | 82
In Asia, the United States relies upon two vassals (Japan and South Korea) that are on the path of accelerating demographic and industrial decline, together with its new weak servant The Philippines. Japan will experience a 10% population decline in the next decade, accelerating downwards after that (heavily centered on its working age population). China is facing a demographic decline, but it has both a better demographic structure and is still climbing the technological ladder that will enable 5% growth perhaps well into the 2030s. Together with the fast growing ASEAN area to help drive its growth, as it forces out the Japanese and others.
The chance of Japan and South Korea backing the US in a war with China, given their fast declining 18-40 populations and close proximity to China is quite low. Without them, the chance of the US fighting a successful war over Taiwan is negligible no matter what The Philippines do. I cover this in detail in US Asian Headache: Japan Is Shrinking! And Next South Korea!
MOSCOW, July 20. /TASS/. Russian forces destroyed two launchers of the US-made Patriot missile system and its radar in the past day, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement.
“Russian tactical aircraft, drone teams, missile forces and artillery units destroyed two launchers and an AN/MPQ-65 radar of the US-made Patriot missile system. In addition, enemy troops and equipment were hit in 113 areas,” the statement reads.
https://tass.com/defense/1819261
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 20 2024 20:35 utc | 84
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 20 2024 17:35 utc | 65
Yup, MII3, Leopard I’s, L118’s and M101’s are all examples of high-end equipment.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 20 2024 20:40 utc | 85
Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 20 2024 12:16 utc | 23
That great crash, I understand, was due to an undetected NULL pointer. That is, a real address (that was passed to a routine) which turned out to have a value of zero.
Now in C++ code, and code in general, checking for NULLs is a routine matter. It didn’t happen because someone was rushed to ship, or someone couldn’t be arsed to test.
I blame capitalism. Just in time disasters.
Posted by: JAB | Jul 20 2024 20:44 utc | 86
Posted by: Eighthman | Jul 20 2024 12:16 utc | 23
Thesis: diversity is turning ruling class into morons.
Counter-argument: WWI, where Europe slaughtered 25 million of its young, was waged exclusively by white meritocratic morons.
MAJOR advances in every scientific field you’d care to name in the 20th century, was due mainly to Jews, the diversity candidates of my parents’ generation.
Not to mention to the (obscured) contributions of women: IV drip (black nurse), matter of the universe (Cecilia Payne), first compiler (Grace Hopper), ecology (Rachel Carson), chemistry (Marie Curie), and I could go on and on.
Go away.
Posted by: JAB | Jul 20 2024 20:51 utc | 87
@Posted by: too scents | Jul 20 2024 12:25 utc | 24
Seems to me that he misses entirely.
“>https://www.ultius.com/images/easyblog_shared/ivy-league-nepotism/ivy-acceptance-rates-legacy-vs-non-legacy.jpg
Yep, the elite incompetents who currently rule the US were educated decades ago – well before the whole woke fiasco that has made things worse. The US really started falling apart with neoliberalism from the 1970s, when actual competence at making things was no longer required – just financiers and lawyers. Jack Welch started the trend of managing companies like a bunch of financial flows. Then the unipolar moment took away the need for any real ability to run the state and the removal of any campaign finance rules meant that lawyers who were good at schmoozing, toeing the line and getting money from donors became predominant in state positions.
Dumb and dumber, Blinken and Sullivan, are classic examples of this. Compare them to James Baker, like comparing a young child to a well rounded and experienced adult. Wokeism is just making sure that the leaders twenty years from now will be even more craven and dumber. At least J D Vance looks more like a meritocratic hire that brings some intellectual depth while of course still having to play to the donors, the Zionist foreign influence organizations and the lunatic Schofield Bible worshippers.
The Supreme Court has been very careful in its rulings against affirmative action, so that it does not tread on the affirmative action for the rich and the spawn of the Faculty. How the hell else would people like GW Bush and Trump get into elite universities? Got to keep all those clever Asian kids out through highly dubious “cultural” requirements so that the space for the elites and faculty mediocre kids remains.
@Cheney
“What would Budanov have against a member of Svoboda who doesn’t think Russian should be spoken in Ukraine?”
Nothing. Thats why I wrote he sacrificed her.
Posted by: Apollyon | Jul 20 2024 20:55 utc | 89
Posted by: JAB | Jul 20 2024 20:51 utc | 87
Jews “diversity candidates” in the US or Western Europe: Nonsense.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 20 2024 21:09 utc | 90
⚡️🇺🇦Former deputy chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Igor Romanenko said that the Russian Armed Forces have come close to the most important logistics hub of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass.
According to Romanenko, now the Ukrainian Armed Forces urgently need to look for reserves in order to stop the advance of Russian troops who have taken the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) – Konstantinovka highway in the DPR under fire control.
“They [the Russian Armed Forces] came right up to the most important logistics route, the road to Konstantinovka, there are already kilometers between them. This means that the enemy can defeat not only artillery, but also mortars. The advancement of civilian trucks and cars, including volunteers, has stopped; it is now used only for military purposes.”
Romanenko added that the main question at the moment is how quickly and what kind of reserves of weapons, equipment and personnel can be found at the appropriate level in order to be used in this direction and stop the advance of Russian troops.
Also, the former deputy chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that the plans of the Russian troops in this direction are far-reaching – to turn north and create a threat to the Kramatorsk-Slavyansk agglomeration and then go further.
“>https://x.com/simpatico771/status/1814765768120086782
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 20 2024 21:10 utc | 91
From Big Serge on his substack
“NATO has communicated that it is not willing to fight an open war with Russia and risk annihilatory nuclear exchange over Ukraine. But by pledging eventual NATO membership for Kiev, they are signaling that they would be willing to do so in the future.
It’s not obvious why Ukraine might be worth fighting a catastrophic war tomorrow, but not today.”
Once I posted about the already overwhelming dominance of SpaceX in orbital lift capacity on AM’s blog and he deleted it. But, it is a fact. The Falcon 9 has achieved booster recovery, reusability, and an eye watering launch tempo. SpaceX already has more annual launches and tons to orbit than all other operators combined, by a large margin. (No one else even has a reusable orbital booster, although Rocket Lab is working towards that with their light booster, Electron.) The follow on SpaceX methane burning heavy booster/Starship is still in development, but making solid gains with every test. After the development and testing is complete, the version 3 of the heavy lifter is planned be orbiting 200 tons to LEO per launch.
SpaceX has applied for licenses for the heavy lifter for 3 locations, two complexes at KSC and their Boca Chica site in Texas. The combined licenses are for up to 145 launches per year. If all of these permits were utilised, in theory, they could orbit 29,000 tons a year! That’s 3 destroyers worth of mass!
In short, the USSA’s hole card is dreams of space supremacy, therefore the creation of Space Force. This is the one area in which the USSA has a massive lead over all rivals, easily a decade, and they are pulling away. THIS is why they want to hit the pause button on the Ukraine war, until they have such an overwhelming superiority of orbital assets that they can dictate terms.
Posted by: Drifter | Jul 20 2024 21:24 utc | 92
Posted by: JAB | Jul 20 2024 20:44 utc | 86
I think you mean null pointer *dereferencing*, i.e. trying to access the value stored at the invalid memory address pointed to, which leads to a segmentation fault or worse.
Posted by: Verdant | Jul 20 2024 21:26 utc | 93
Roger@88 The link came up error 404 for me. My gut reaction is closer to JAB@87. I would add that scientific and technical innovators are not really motivated by monetary reward (and those who are tend to end up effectively leaving the labs and workshops for offices and boardrooms rather quickly.) Overall I am very skeptical that in twenty years today’s woke students will brandish their credentials as their entitlement enter the higher levels of service to the ruling class, much less become rulers. In the coming decades most of them will be J.D. Vance’s occasionally brandishing their oppressed past as obstacle they have overcome, duly contemptuous of the errors of their one-time fellows and properly grateful to their new patrons. And if they don’t do a Vance-style regeneratio of ruling class official morals, they will find their wokeness a ticket to adjunct professor at a community college…if that much. Everybody who cares to know already knows how much of DEI is a pretense. As a whole, wokeness is about petty bourgeois climbers trying to outcompete others for ruling class favor, selling their faces as representation. This group or that is to beg for its place while resolutely ignoring the class line between owners and the rest.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jul 20 2024 21:30 utc | 94
There are increasing reports of anti-Banderite partisan resistance activity throughout Ukraine. Probably because it’s happening.
NAZO personnel in little Russia have an ever shorter shelf life. They need to watch their backs.
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Jul 20 2024 21:34 utc | 95
The IMF have recently published the following document:
Ukraine: Fourth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Modifications of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
at this link: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2024/06/28/Ukraine-Fourth-Review-of-the-Extended-Arrangement-under-the-Extended-Fund-Facility-Request-551207
There’s a further link at that page for a PDF download of the report (±3MB, 154 pages, no need for Adobe Acrobat, it opens fine with Evince for me). Just started wading through it.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 20 2024 21:42 utc | 96
Posted by: Drifter | Jul 20 2024 21:24 utc | 92
Interesting theory, but,
1) they certainly dont have the ace up their sleeve yet, and
2) space is incredibly fragile, all structures relying on its “neutrality” to keep them from being wiped out.
Posted by: UWDude | Jul 20 2024 21:49 utc | 97
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Jul 20 2024 21:34 utc | 95
There were some claims and reports that a special British SAS diver force was recently destroyed in Odessa, and their location would be revealed by underground resistance. Supposedly this was the ‘elite of the elite’ in SAS.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 20 2024 22:01 utc | 98
An important and often overlooked fact, Putin is a committed anti-Communist.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jul 20 2024 18:43 utc | 75
Guess who’s back? RTJ! Yes, for once in your trolly existence, you are right. He is an anti communist and US imperialism certainly overlooks that fact. Nonetheless, still a product of the Soviets just like a good bit of Russia’s excellent military machine. Take it for what you will.
Also, UW is bringing great news today. Two Patriot systems obliterated!? A banderite assassinated!?
How’s that grab you, RTJ?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jul 20 2024 22:28 utc | 99
unimperator | Jul 20 2024 22:01 utc | 98
I generally see if those sort of reports match with frothing at the mouth anger in UK, France or whichever country. Often they do so in those cases its a fairly sure thing they have taken a hit.
The Brits had been quiet for some time but have suddenly come back full noise. It could be because the election is over and comedian of Kiev in parliament so a bit hard to gauge with this one but it seems legit.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 20 2024 22:29 utc | 100