News & views related to the conflict in Ukraine …
Back to Main
July 11, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-165
Comments
Posted by: smuks | Jul 12 2024 14:10 utc | 166
I Agree that not being able to prevent the escalation/ intervention was a strategic defeat for Russia.
Putin was quite unhappy that he had been thus outmanoeuvered – one of the rare instances when his emotions were clearly visible.
I would say Putin was manuevered into the SMO but not outmaunevered.
On the contrary Russia was prepared for military escalation and sanctions.
The Russians didn’t just side step western sanctions on a whim … they were able to switch trading partners and replace western businesses almost seamlessly as if they, along with their partners like China and India, had the plan in place long before the sanctions.
For the rest, I’m afraid it’s mostly going according to US/UK plan.
The war is still going on & keeping Moscow busy after 2,5 years – but that’s secondary.
Cope. Russia is much stronger in every way today than it was in February 2022. The are immune to western sanctions. Their army is twice the size it was when they started the SMO and they have a battle hardened cadre of NCO’s and junior officers as a nucleus to form even more units. They’ve weeded out the deadwood and corruption from the upper ranks. They are outproducing the west in both numbers and quality of their weapons and they are still only spending 10% of what the USA spends on their military which includes an strategic nuclear force much more modern and survivable as the USA’s.
I sincerely doubt the US’UK strategists sat down in January 2022 and said “lets put in a plan that makes Russia militarily and economically stronger than it is today by starting a war with a country we are unable to sustain.”
The main strategic goal was and is to split EUrope from Russia, thus tightening US/UK control over the Western bloc. Appears to be on target.
So to be clear you believe that by weakening their NATO allies, cutting them off from the energy sources and raw materials they need to make weapons and whatever weapons them make more expensive because of ruptured supply chains they become stronger and more compliant allies? And to do this at the same time they made Russia stronger both economically and militarily?
I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall when they presented that sales pitch.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 12 2024 16:10 utc | 201
TJandTheBear | Jul 12 2024 16:06 utc | 199
Its something I read in the last week so will try and dig up a link. You may not have read comment Justpassinby | Jul 12 2024 15:44 utc | 196
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 12 2024 16:11 utc | 202
HB_Norica@193….hmm, why would Russia nuke the US, it ain’t their F16’s flying, won’t be their nuclear tipped cruise missiles. And there in lies the issue, who will Russia blame and will they attack all of NATO at once, (oh, and Australia) should three or four said Shadow Scalps arrive on site.
As for getting there, we know SUs and Migs flying low and fast have already hit various ships, ammo dumps air fields and command posts of the Russian forces. F16’s can’t?
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 12 2024 16:15 utc | 203
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (for the period from July 6 to July 12, 2024)
From July 6 to 12, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out 39 group strikes with high-precision long-range air and sea-based weapons, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, as a result of which they hit: enemy aviation bases, enterprises of the defense industry of Ukraine and energy facilities that provided their work, military equipment assembly shops, storage sites for unmanned boats and attack UAVs.
The targets of the strikes have been achieved. All assigned objects were hit.
During the week, the units of the North group of forces improved their position along the front edge. The manpower and equipment of four formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a marine brigade and three air defense brigades were defeated. 26 counterattacks of enemy assault groups were repelled.
The losses of the Armed Forces amounted to up to 1,800 soldiers, two tanks, four armored combat vehicles, 22 vehicles, 34 field artillery guns, including eight M777 howitzers manufactured by the United States, as well as three electronic warfare stations.
As a result of successful actions, the units of the Zapad group of forces improved the tactical situation and defeated the formations of four mechanized, tank, assault and airmobile brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as three air defense brigades. We repelled three counterattacks by enemy assault groups.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 3,440 servicemen, five tanks, 14 armored combat vehicles, including two M113 armored personnel carriers manufactured by the United States, 47 vehicles, and 32 field artillery guns. In addition, 14 field ammunition depots were destroyed.
Units of the Southern Group of Troops defeated the manpower and equipment of five mechanized, motorized infantry, assault, mountain assault and two airborne assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Six counterattacks by enemy assault groups were repelled.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 4,380 military personnel, three tanks, four armored combat vehicles, 90 vehicles, 59 field artillery guns, 27 of them Western-made. Nine electronic warfare stations and 29 field ammunition depots were destroyed.
As a result of successful actions, units of the Center group of troops liberated the settlements of Sokol, Chigari, Yasnobrodovka and Voskhod of the Donetsk People’s Republic in a week. In addition, the formations of six mechanized, two infantry brigades, as well as two air defense units were defeated. 38 counterattacks of enemy units were repelled.
The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the specified period amounted to 2,785 military personnel, two tanks, including the M1A1 Abrams made by the United States, nine armored combat vehicles, including four Bradley infantry fighting vehicles made by the United States, 15 vehicles and 26 field artillery guns.
During the week, the units of the Vostok group of forces improved the tactical situation, defeated the manpower and equipment of the mechanized, two motorized infantry brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as three air defense brigades and National Guard units. Nine enemy counterattacks were repelled.
The enemy lost up to 980 soldiers, a tank, nine armored combat vehicles, including two M113 armored personnel carriers manufactured in the United States, 40 vehicles, as well as 16 field artillery guns, of which ten were produced in NATO countries.
Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated formations of two formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a marine brigade, as well as four air defense brigades.
Enemy losses amounted to up to 685 military personnel, an armored combat vehicle, 38 vehicles, 22 field artillery guns, eight of them M777 manufactured by the United States. In addition, six electronic warfare stations and six field ammunition depots were destroyed.
In a week, tactical aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation destroyed: seven M142 HIMARS launchers manufactured by the United States, prepared for strikes on the territory of Crimea, together with foreign operators serving them; four launchers with radar of the S-300PS anti-aircraft missile system, three launchers installations with the radar of the HAWK anti-aircraft missile system and two launchers with the radar of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system.
Air defense systems shot down four ATACMS tactical missiles, three Storm Shadow cruise missiles , 17 guided Hammer bombs, a HARM anti-radar missile, 28 HIMARS rockets, as well as 308 unmanned aerial vehicles.
During the week, 22 Ukrainian servicemen surrendered on the line of contact.
Posted by: rumod report | Jul 12 2024 16:16 utc | 204
I’m chucking out some notebooks in which I jotted down current items of interest from the www and news broadcasts going back to 2003 when I first got on the www.
Here’s a note I’m transferring to an archive of Conspiracy Theories:
“Israel’s secret plan for a Second Israel in Ukraine. Wayne Madsen Report Dec 8, 2014.”
I enjoyed WM’s stuff back then. He was the first to enlighten his readers about the CIA using its aircraft for drug-running.
Anyway, now that it’s crystal clear that NATO members are ALL Jew$lave$ and only Jew$lave$, Madsen’s old conspiracy theory doesn’t just have legs – it’s got 7-League Boots.
NATO’s consistently half-arsed, disorganised and error-prone ‘support’ for Ukraine is just too clownish to be coincidence.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jul 12 2024 16:30 utc | 205
Posted by: too scents | Jul 12 2024 15:44 utc | 195
Low resolution / low bitrate feeds would be sufficient for a whole bunch of simultaneous FPV feeds. Look at the available footage, anything that has fuzzy artifacts like old analog TV is exactly that, cheap FPV video transmitter modules output a PAL or NTSC analog signal.
20Mbps is enough to get a crappy 4K stream (4096×2160), so maybe a split-screen rule of thumb might be that NTSC (720×480) could be tiled 5 across (4096/720=5.6) and 4 down (2160/480=4.5) on a 4K upload stream. I’m ignoring interlacing and frame rate issues, the situation might be better or worse in practice.
This is assuming the simplest FPV design that has to be video-piloted, without interruption, from launch to impact, which is most of them right now. If they can fly and loiter on autopilot there would only be a need for video from units that were operating as forward scouts or performing attacks.
A dedicated surveillance drone with high resolution camera might take up a whole Starlink dish but tens of live FPV video streams looks plausible, unless I’ve messed up horribly.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 12 2024 16:31 utc | 206
During the week, 22 Ukrainian servicemen surrendered on the line of contact.
Posted by: rumod report | Jul 12 2024 16:16 utc | 204
Ukie casualties – KIA – currently 2000 a day 14000 a week. Not a good ratio for Ukies.
Ukie mobilization now is for the duration. Like the mafia, once your in you can’t get out. 1 in 636 successfully surrender and have close to guaranteed survival. The rest die.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 12 2024 16:32 utc | 207
Posted by: Surferket | Jul 12 2024 14:33 utc | 174
Mah dude, I posted Zhivoff’s telegram post that Simplicius shares in his latest (12/07) substack couple of weeks ago on MoA. It’s old news, at least for most Russian watchers like myself. One thing for sure, if Zhivoff complains about something, it usually is already known and acknowledged by the Russian genshtab and methods are being developed to counter it. Slow wins the war…
Posted by: Boo | Jul 12 2024 16:34 utc | 208
I wonder if there is a complete stop of oil and gas getting to Europe [ship and pipeline] for whatever reason, how long Europe is able to continue. There is some fossil fuel from the North Sea, but I am sure that Britain would not be willing to share. Could the US even redistribute their mostly low quality shale gas [very little medium distillate-diesel] in an election year when the screams would come loudly? If NATO believes that they would quickly triumph against a very good military in Russia and its friends, they need to reevaluate very quickly as Europe in a new “stone” and “hunger age” would come swiftly without nuclear weapons. Almost all of Europe needs to import food – Norway is starting a cereal storage system – and Britain is something like 50-55% self sufficient in food even with natural gas for fertilizer and diesel [from Russia] for its farm machinery. Britain produces very little coal and is shortly shutting down it ability to generate electricity with coal and to make virgin steel that would be necessary to even make riffles and artillery – they would have to buy it from Russia!
Posted by: Bill r | Jul 12 2024 16:41 utc | 209
anon2020 | Jul 12 2024 16:31 utc | 206
Some thoughts. If I was to set up an attack drone swarm, first thing would be swarm awareness. Basically each drone knows where it is in relation to the others. That way, the pilot flies a single drone, the others form around it. If one goes down, the pilot flies another. Picture recognition. Once the pilot spots the target, he marks it and if the piloted drone gets taken down in the attack/terminal stage the others continue regardless.
I’m thinking of the Russian anti ship missile salvos. Forget which missile. One flies high looking for the target and guiding the rest skimming the water. If the high flying leader gets taken down, another rises up and takes its place.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 12 2024 16:46 utc | 210
20Mbps is enough
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 12 2024 16:31 utc | 206
—
20Mbps is “best effort”. 5Mbps is the nominal rate. Read the terms of service.
Starlink is brittle.
Russia, in New Push, Increasingly Disrupts Ukraine’s Starlink Service
Russia has deployed advanced tech to interfere with Elon Musk’s satellite internet service, Ukrainian officials said, leading to more outages on the northern front battle line.
Just before Russian troops pushed across the Ukrainian northern border this month, members of Ukraine’s 92nd Assault Brigade lost a vital resource. Starlink satellite internet service, which soldiers use to communicate, collect intelligence and conduct drone attacks, had slowed to a crawl.
Operated by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, Starlink has been critical to the Ukrainian military since the earliest days of the war with Russia. Without the full service, Ukrainian soldiers said, they couldn’t quickly communicate and share information about the surprise onslaught and resorted to sending text messages. Their experiences were repeated across the new northern front line, according to Ukrainian soldiers, officials and electronics warfare experts.
At the heart of the outages: increased interference from Russia.
continues ==> https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/technology/ukraine-russia-starlink.html
Posted by: too scents | Jul 12 2024 16:47 utc | 211
first thing would be swarm awareness.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 12 2024 16:46 utc | 210
—
Why not just adapt the technology that already exists that allows a cell tower to manage hundreds of client phones?
Ukraine is already making a software defined radio that does just that.
https://infozahyst.com/en/product/auris-r6000/
Note from the spec:
ability to integrate with R&S® CA100/120 or other SDR software via NetSDR.
Posted by: too scents | Jul 12 2024 16:53 utc | 212
too scents | Jul 12 2024 16:53 utc | 212
A cell tower I think would be and easy target and easy to track and locate. Game over. I assume it would also be easy to jam.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 12 2024 17:01 utc | 213
easy to track and locate. Game over. I assume it would also be easy to jam.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 12 2024 17:01 utc | 213
—
Frequency hopping spread spectrum addresses that issue.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frequency-hopping_spread_spectrum
Posted by: too scents | Jul 12 2024 17:07 utc | 214
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 12 2024 16:15 utc | 203
All sales of USA military equipment comes with an EULA that doesn’t permit the transfer of US weapons systems without US approval so the F-16 only get to Ukraine with US permission plus all the parts for getting these aircraft air worthy from being mothballed would come from US suppliers.
Where are the Ukrainians getting nuclear weapons that the F-16 can use if not from the USA itself? The French have air dropped nukes and the British use US weapons on their aircraft. It has to be one of the three. You can’t just strap any old nuke onto a jet aircraft … they need specialized hardware, plumbing and electronics to arm them from the cockpit and drop them on target.
Who is supplying the targeting intelligence?
Ukraine can’t use F-16’s to launch a nuke without the USA’s knowledge and input. The Russians know this.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 12 2024 17:08 utc | 215
“anon2020 | Jul 12 2024 16:31 utc | 206
Some thoughts. If I was to set up an attack drone swarm, first thing would be swarm awareness. Basically each drone knows where it is in relation to the others. That way, the pilot flies a single drone, the others form around it. If one goes down, the pilot flies another. Picture recognition. Once the pilot spots the target, he marks it and if the piloted drone gets taken down in the attack/terminal stage the others continue regardless.
I’m thinking of the Russian anti ship missile salvos. Forget which missile. One flies high looking for the target and guiding the rest skimming the water. If the high flying leader gets taken down, another rises up and takes its place.”
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 12 2024 16:46 utc | 210
Look I’m out of my intellectual paygrade here [that happens alot, editor] but think of it-a swarm by definition is a densely packed drones; with good ISR you could launch a missile to detonate within the swarm killing them all which would belay the tactic.
As for getting there, we know SUs and Migs flying low and fast have already hit various ships, ammo dumps air fields and command posts of the Russian forces. F16’s can’t?
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jul 12 2024 16:15 utc | 203
Yes Ukrainian jets fly fast and low, release weapons and scoot to an airbase that the Russians then target with missiles the next evening.
What attacked the Russian ships, ammo dumps etc? Was it the aircraft or the weapon it carries. And are those weapons still effective or have the Russians figured out how to jam them with EW.
It’s been taking the Russians as little as 2 weeks to come up with software patches for their AD systems and/or jammers to figure out NATO weapons and make them ineffictive. They still make big booms only not where they intended to make them.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 12 2024 17:15 utc | 217
Elmagnostic @161: “If you were Russia who would you strike first, Germany or Poland?”
Oh, that’s an easy one: Britain.
When you are fighting a gang, you ignore the little shake-n-piss dogs and focus on one of the bigger ones. Not that Britain is all that mighty, but much of the rest of the gang thinks they are. Take out the pack leader and the little dogs will lick your feet.
Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 12 2024 17:19 utc | 218
HB_Norica | Jul 12 2024 16:10 utc | 201
It’s always preferable to reach strategic goals without a (costly) war, cf. Sun Tzu.
Being forced to wage war against a ‘brotherly’ country, while the real enemy just watches and has essentially no losses, makes the strategic defeat even worse.
On the contrary Russia was prepared for military escalation and sanctions.
The Russians didn’t just side step western sanctions on a whim … they were able to switch trading partners and replace western businesses almost seamlessly as if they, along with their partners like China and India, had the plan in place long before the sanctions.
Of course they were ready, having had at least 8 years (prob. more) to prepare.
But losing important trading partners and alliance options doesn’t improve Russia’s strategic position.
I sincerely doubt the US’UK strategists sat down in January 2022 and said “lets put in a plan that makes Russia militarily and economically stronger than it is today by starting a war with a country we are unable to sustain.”
So you believe the official (i.e. propaganda) narrative, as does Hermius.
Well, I don’t.
The publicly stated goal of a war is rarely the actual strategic aim. (nb, same is true for many non-war policies.) You can win a war on the battlefield, yet end up strategically losing – and vice versa.
US/UK have actually turned this into an art form: It doesn’t matter who “wins” – the mere fact that war “breaks out” (or escalates) is all they want. Vietnam, Iran-Iraq, Afghanistan, ISIS, Ukraine…
Posted by: smuks | Jul 12 2024 17:24 utc | 219
Watching the Duran and Mercouris mentions that people are comparing Biden to El Cid, the corpse dressed up in his armor and tied on top his horse to inspire the troops. Funny, clever, educated people out there.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jul 12 2024 17:25 utc | 220
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 12 2024 16:46 utc | 210
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-700_Granit
Posted by: too scents | Jul 12 2024 16:47 utc | 211
Fair enough but I do wonder at how other comms tech would perform against high power jamming. A cell tower near the front would be directly exposed to jamming, and would be picked up by RF direction finders, spotted and hit. With Starlink the “cell tower” is in LEO, which hasn’t as yet seen physical attack.
Running fiber optic cables from drone operation positions to uplinks a few tens of km rearward might be an option in some places, and we won’t have seen the last of improvements to Starlink terrestrial dishes and measures to resist EW.
I can’t find anything concrete on Starlink availability along the front right now.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 12 2024 17:28 utc | 221
canuck | Jul 12 2024 17:10 utc | 216
With sufficient warning and suitable system protecting the target that would work. I think much would depend on target position data given to the swarm. If they/the pilot only had a rough position and had to get up a bit to spot the target that would work if the whole swarm flew high. That where the Russian missile thing comes in. just one flies high.
If the is a constantly updated or target position or static target then they could fly very low. Below tree or building level.
My thoughts on this though are purely hypothetical based on known technologies.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 12 2024 17:30 utc | 222
@ William Gruff | Jul 12 2024 17:19 utc | 218
lol… trust you to make me laugh and also offer a wise response!! going after britian is going after 2nd in command… but maybe, just maybe they are first in command, but it always seems like the uk is trying to curry favour with the usa… their relationship has become very perverted, like 2 sickos egging each other on…
Posted by: james | Jul 12 2024 17:36 utc | 223
William Gruff | Jul 12 2024 17:19 utc | 218
james | Jul 12 2024 17:36 utc | 223
I wonder if UK will be smart enough like the US and stand back to watch the fireworks as the little get enough courage to duck in for a bite.. Given the fanatical hatred UK has for Russia, perhaps not.
And Russia certainly has its eyes and nukes on UK.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 12 2024 17:48 utc | 224
Re the Ukie drone swarms. Just how accurate is that. In one Russian blogger piece quoted in this thread, it looks like small packs or groups of individual FPV’s operating together rather than swarm.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 12 2024 17:54 utc | 225
Posted by: too scents | Jul 12 2024 15:22 utc | 192
#############
I have been working with AI for a while now.
Even if the problem is simple, AI can struggle to yield productive answers due to the complexity of variables, the timeliness of the data, and the inability to account for what it has not been trained to incorporate.
AI conforms to the classic, garbage in, garbage out. No matter how good AI is, it’s still taught by humans with all of the issues that can come from that. If you program a calculator with 2 + 2 = 5, then one can calculate to their heart’s content with that device, and end up with a lot of useless gibberish.
AI’s real advantage is in its scalability. You can teach it how to do something that humans do, and it can do it 24/7/365 across massive sample sizes, without getting sick, taking vacation time, dealing with the fallout of a divorce, etc.
So instead of thinking that AI is going to make anyone smarter, it is only going to expand the volume and speed of data they can process. It is an important distinction, IMO.
Now, let’s analyze that in the context of the West. They have many flawed assumptions about everyone, sometimes including themselves. Building AI models with blind spots such as “the Russians will revolt if we place sanctions on them” and “Russia is sacrificing a lot of manpower in human wave tactics” will impact the quality of results returned to the operator.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 12 2024 17:56 utc | 226
james @223:
I think you are right, Britain is #2. The problem is that #1 is kinda far away and tough to make an example of.
It is just important to avoid going after the little dogs because doing so makes you look weak to the bigger dogs and gives them the courage to fight.
Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 12 2024 18:00 utc | 227
They have many flawed assumptions about everyone, sometimes including themselves.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 12 2024 17:56 utc | 226
Well stated. Reminds me of how they thought the RF would run at the first sign of Western tanks, LOL.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jul 12 2024 18:01 utc | 228
So to be clear you believe that by weakening their NATO allies, cutting them off from the energy sources and raw materials they need to make weapons and whatever weapons them make more expensive because of ruptured supply chains they become stronger and more compliant allies? And to do this at the same time they made Russia stronger both economically and militarily?
I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall when they presented that sales pitch.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 12 2024 16:10 utc | 201
Looks like there was more than one plan. Probably the original idea started by Vicky and her gang was to take control over Ukr then any other option was winning. If Russia lets them join nato, place missiles and nukes, start sanctions. If Russia doesn’t let them in nato, start a local war (mindless attacks on Donbass, just kill everyone) and apply all sanctions. They were sure Russia will end worse than in 90s. At the same time EU will become their slaves, buying weapons and resources from US, eliminating competition (Germany). Their problem was simple, Russia did not collapse and China and a few others ignored US demands. So far.
So they doubled down, again and again in any way they could. Now they’ve ruined EU’s industry but there’s a large buffer of wealth for a few years. Companies won’t suffer, they move to US and China, experts will also leave. But EU workers will lose their well paid jobs, various systems will turn into a circus, like health and police. It’ll be a Clockwork Orange world. If US keeps doubling down and Europe doesn’t remove US puppets like Ursula and her gang, they will be turned into poor zombies going to attack Russia and China eventually. Like Ukr, the EU path is final, no way back.
Posted by: rk | Jul 12 2024 18:01 utc | 229
Attempt by NATU to attack a nuclear power plant substation, from Onufrienko’s tg:
Evil tongues are reporting an attempt to attack one of the auxiliary substations of the largest Kursk nuclear power plant in the region in Kurchatov.
According to them, a drone filled with explosives was shot down several kilometers from the station – it was heading towards a strategic facility.
Posted by: Boo | Jul 12 2024 18:05 utc | 230
A logical question is why dams haven’t been lowered in order to reduce the collapse risk they pose during the ongoing conflict but the answer is surely in the following.
The loss of Kakhovka HPP was shocking at the time but in retrospect the first of the many HIMARS strikes that systematically disabled the control gates, that would have provided a way to safely lower the level of the dam, should have brought to mind the true plan, which was to fill the dam from the upstream gates under Ukrainian control and collapse it at overflow.
There doesn’t appear to be any public information to distinguish between the dam being filled and then breached with explosives or being filled and simply collapsing due to overfill, but disabling the gates with HIMARS and the filling it to overflow is all in the news of that time.
https://t.me/vysokygovorit/16488
I saw such an entertaining video from Boris Rozhin. Modeling of the situation, when the dam is undermawn and the subsequent flooding of Kiev and part of the Dnieper.
You know, there was such a Ukrainian blogger and writer Yan Valetov (maybe there is now). At one time, he wrote a book, on the plot of which there is a war in Ukraine, the West supports the Khokhlovs, Russian troops take part of the territory. The remains of Ukraine have wild land, but the most interesting thing is that it describes the undermining of the cascade of Dnieper hydroelectric power plants, the flooding of a huge territory and its contamination with nuclear waste from water-washed nuclear power plants. For some reason, it seems to me that the scenario is quite predictable and seriously worked out in the West, especially in the case of a rapid retreat and collapse of the front. The West needs a black hole, a better candidate than Ukraine, and the West will try to do everything possible to implement this scenario.
Posted by: anon | Jul 12 2024 18:09 utc | 231
Russia may start fighting NATO from about 2029 – then the Russians will have optimal conditions for this, – Inspector General of the German Army
▪️He predicts about 1.5 million soldiers in Russia in 5-8 years, which is twice as many as the number involved in Ukraine.
▪️The German army will have enough ammunition reserves for only 2 days.
▪️The Beli are even considering reinstating compulsory military service in Germany.
▪️Russia now builds ~1500 battle tanks per year – this is the number in the five strongest NATO countries. Germany has, for example, only 300 of them.
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/72336
Posted by: guest | Jul 12 2024 18:18 utc | 232
You can win a war on the battlefield, yet end up strategically losing – and vice versa.
US/UK have actually turned this into an art form: It doesn’t matter who “wins” – the mere fact that war “breaks out” (or escalates) is all they want.
And on this basis we can conclude they’re imbeciles. Worst, deranged clowns with delusions of intelligence. Retards playing pong thinking they’re doing 7 dimensions of chess.
To wit, Jake the Snake and the clown posse have through their provocation of the conflict:
1. Driven Russia and China into defacto alliance.
2. Hastened the dedollarization process through their asset seizures and sanctions.
3. Weakened European and Western economies, perhaps fatally.
4. Immeasurably strengthened the Russian armed forces.
5. Exposed Western methodoliges, doctrines and tactics and their weaponry to analysis, reverse engineering and effective countering.
6. Exposed those same weapons to the world as inferior to Russian analogs (where a Western version even exists).
7. Discontent and economic hardship created by these policies, while perhaos intended to consolidate power behind a fascist matrix is instead causing the emergence of resistance.
I can go on and on. Trying to spin the Ukraine debacle as anything but the utter strategic fuckup it was and continues to be will be untenable in the near future. You cannot polish this specific turd. It has the stench of a million corpses.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 12 2024 18:23 utc | 233
Some good ol’ dakka.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 12 2024 12:01 utc | 120
Ah, a poster who’s a man of culture!
Posted by: Constantine | Jul 12 2024 18:48 utc | 234
If you were Russia who would you strike first, Germany or Poland?
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Jul 12 2024 13:58 utc | 161
Well, you wouldn’t strangle the budgie or drain the goldfish, you would beat the poodle to death – and that’s what the British have been aiming for in their anti-Russia policy for many years.
Posted by: Oliver Krug | Jul 12 2024 18:50 utc | 235
You cannot polish this specific turd. It has the stench of a million corpses.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 12 2024 18:23 utc | 233
I’ve posited that — should they not get us all killed — these clowns we’ve all elected will be a net positive in the long run. Think about it… through their incompetence they’ll have brought about the end of NATO, EU, WEF, the dollar, global hegemony, wokeism, etc. It’s a dark tunnel we’re in but the other side will be brighter for everyone.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jul 12 2024 18:51 utc | 236
If you haven’t figured it out yet, the Ukr war was been a great success for NATO, if you approach it from the correct perspective. While leaving Russia prostate would have been a wonderful outcome from the point of view of the neocons, the actual accomplishment of killing off 580,000 mostly hardened Slav soldiers is a wonderful head start for NATO when the *real* fighting begins. A dead Ukie soldier is one less soldier that Russia could recruit in a war against NATO – having dead Russian soldiers is just a bonus.
This boils down to intention. NATO and the Zionazis have been preparing for WWIII since before 2008, of course, so has Russia although Putin’s (understandable) reluctance to face the grim reality of the West’s plans shows at every step of the way (like actually believing Merkel and Hollande about the Minsk agreement).
Seems to me the indicator of intent is in the numbers – see the recent Black Mountain Analysis about troop strength, airforce and naval capabilities, or the recent graphs showing up in the German BILD magazine.
The numbers belie the reports that UK, France, Germany are “oh so weak, just a single fighter squadron they can deploy”. Sorry, I believe this is misdirection. Just like saying the F16’s that are going to show up are “old and decrepit”, and flown by undertrained Ukie pilots. Maybe I’m wrong and they actually *are* but I think its more likely the F16’s that show up are better than advertised, with outright NATO pilots, or perhaps even remotely piloted from Oklahoma (as an aside, I suspect a large portion of the Ukie drones are in fact controlled from outside Ukkraine, again via Starlink to NATO command bunkers who knows where.
As for where this is all going, we approach the moment of truth. Russia is doing very well with its Nebraska Cornhusker offense of 3 yards and a cloud of dust, and NATO could change course and figure that even with magical Israeli swarm software they can overcome FAB-3000 Ukr is a lost cause, and then perhaps peace could break out.
IMHO We will likely know fairly soon.
Posted by: Simpleton | Jul 12 2024 19:42 utc | 237
Their problem was simple, Russia did not collapse and China and a few others ignored US demands. So far.
Posted by: rk | Jul 12 2024 18:01 utc | 229
You say so far. What to you see as the leverage on countries like India, Iran, China and Saudi Arabia to halt trading with Russia?
The petrodollar deal with the Saudis died a couple of months ago and their biggest clients are BRICs countries.
India has to decide if it prefers to trade with the 6 billion strong big food, AG and resource rich countries of the BRICs Africa and Asia or trade with the “golden billion in Europe and North America who buy Chinese manufactured goods, marks them up and moves them on at a profit. The first place Modi went last week after his reelection wasn’t the USA but to Russia.
The USA has already said that China’s next on the regime change war list and they sure as hell don’t want a NATO friendly puppet in Russia cutting them off from Russia resources while the US navy blockades China by sea so good luck getting them to switch sides.
Iran? No chance. Brazil? South Africa? Which one are they going to turn?
I simply don’t see what leverage the USA has over Russia’s allies and trading partners. I certainly wouldn’t bet on it.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 12 2024 19:51 utc | 238
So they doubled down, again and again in any way they could. Now they’ve ruined EU’s industry but there’s a large buffer of wealth for a few years. … Like Ukr, the EU path is final, no way back.
Posted by: rk | Jul 12 2024 18:01 utc | 229
I follow you but what’s the end game for the USA? That doesn’t read like a strategy … it sounds more like pets.com’s business plan. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/dotcom-pets-dot-com.asp
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 12 2024 19:56 utc | 239
If you haven’t figured it out yet, the Ukr war was been a great success for NATO, if you approach it from the correct perspective.
A deliberately myopic one. This is spin. It’s based on maybe the F16s will have NATO pilots and maybe the real reason was to kill soldiers and waste materiel as a prelude to a WW3 that the West can’t win in any circumstances. The entire premise is ridiculous, the Ukronazis want to join NATO, and would have been great allies for this proposed WW3. Now theyre mostly dead, along with the image of NATO as…lets say competent?
NATO doesn’t want to fight. For good reason. They want to ‘inflict costs’. They succeeded, just mostly in the wrong direction.
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. The gods after all first make mad those they would destroy.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 12 2024 20:11 utc | 240
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Jul 12 2024 13:58 utc | 161
The yankeeland of course.
Posted by: Naive | Jul 12 2024 20:13 utc | 241
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 12 2024 19:56 utc | 239
#############
Anyone intelligent and rational accounts for time.
That is one thing missing in the West. Enlightenment materialism has yielded a hedonistic instant-gratification mindset.
No Western leader acts in the interests of their children, grandchildren, or legacy.
The Chinese, Russians, Indians, Persians, and to a lesser degree the Arabs have a sense of history. That there will be many tomorrows, and that what is done today ripples into that future.
Given that America (as the West) doesn’t account for consequences or results, how can it possibly formulate any manner of effective strategy?
Who else doesn’t think much about the future and its consequences?
Children.
At least kids can be cute and affectionate …
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 12 2024 20:13 utc | 242
Looks like Brandon has decided to continue the war to the last European . . .
If the Europeans don´t very quickly get rid of Ursula Fond-of-Lying and her clique, they´ll all be owned by BlackRock et al. – and be smouldering ruins . . .
Posted by: John Marks | Jul 12 2024 20:13 utc | 243
Posted by: Simpleton | Jul 12 2024 19:42 utc | 237
Another agent-provocateur.
Who does not understand that Russia is ready for every nato move.
Who does not understand that western leaders are cowards as well as their people.
Who does not understand that Russian missiles are unstopable, while nato missiles are stopable.
Posted by: Naive | Jul 12 2024 20:19 utc | 244
At @Vargas 15
Quote. “hyper sonic weapons.
They shall be deployed in Germany and then in Ukraine.
Thanls to Putin’s weakness, the window of opportunity for Russia is quickly closing.”
Putin Has been disgracefully stupid besides being a weakling. At every stage since 2014 he has been outsmarted by his enemies not because enemies are that clever but because Putin is a fool.
President Putin and especially his FM lavrov talk too much which nobody has patience to hear let alone listen.their verbosity bores people to death and in his verbosity are promises and redlines which Putin never observed which increases the confidence of his Anglo enemy to dare challenge him at every step.his 600 billion dollars is openly robbed and he has not attacked yet the mastermind of Ukraine war which is England. Putin has proved himself to be a weak leader since end of Sochi olympics-all his decisions have been in reaction to Anglos’ machinations rather than his own initiative to destroy enemies of Russia for which he has to utterly destroy England to pulp .
Posted by: Sam | Jul 12 2024 20:26 utc | 245
Posted by: Sam | Jul 12 2024 20:26 utc | 245
Fuck off stupid agent provocateur.
Posted by: Naive | Jul 12 2024 20:32 utc | 246
ref: 161
They used to say the reason Britain was vital to USA was that it was an unsinkable aircraft carrier. An aircraft carrier does not have to sink to be unusable. Your carrier can be useless if it is out of food and fuel and the crew are rebelling. If Britons are cold and hungry and know how little the US cares about them, do you think they would support the occupying US forces?
Britain has been a staging post for the US evil empire since the US forces came an occupied it for for the last 80+ years. I suggested earlier, knock out Europe’s fossil fuel and they are back to the stone age without nuclear war.
Posted by: Bill r | Jul 12 2024 20:33 utc | 247
@247
Over paid, over sexed and the Yanks are over here.
Posted by: paddy | Jul 12 2024 20:43 utc | 248
Interesting new article by John Helmer – The Kiev Children’s Hospital, the Russian X-101 Missile, and the Ukraine NASAMS Missile — the Warhead Evidence, Medical and Autopsy Reports Are Missing
Not the best title for an article, but anyway.
He doesn’t say it, but in my interpretation the article sort of makes this point: something on the hospital grounds was targeted and yes, by a Russian missile. What the missile hit (as opposed to targeted) wasn’t quite the target, but a lab building (“toxicology”) next to it. However, the target was also destroyed, or at least badly damaged. That target was an electrical substation, one for distribution. From the size of the building, it served much more than just the hospital on the perimeter of which it stood. Also, it looks fairly new.
Or in the words of one of Helmer’s sources:
“At worst, the Russians intended to strike at the electrical installations and missed, but not really, and not by much. The building next to the substation was hit, not the hospital proper, nor the cardiology clinic to the north. The substation or the nearby ministry was the target. The hospital took blast damage from the strike and possibly from the NASAMS missile. Nebenzya definitely left out what the target was — but the damage to the building beside the substation appears too great to be from an AA missile. It’s too much of a coincidence that the substations and ministry building were close by.”
If all this is true, and I’m beginning to think it is, whoever chose the target or even entertained the idea of bombing a building right next to a big children’s hospital, is a moron and didn’t serve his country well this time around.
The supposed substation I’m talking about can be seen very well in this video (around second 20 e.g.).
Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Jul 12 2024 21:10 utc | 249
For the west F16s mean just another escalation possibility.
They can arm Ukraine with nuclear bombs.
After the attack the West can deny any connection with it.
Posted by: vargas | Jul 12 2024 21:12 utc | 250
Anyone intelligent and rational accounts for time.
That is one thing missing in the West. Enlightenment materialism has yielded a hedonistic instant-gratification mindset.
No Western leader acts in the interests of their children, grandchildren, or legacy.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jul 12 2024 20:13 utc | 242
It’s the same problem with capitalism that marks and Engles pointed out in the 19th century. The end game of capitalism is war over resources, competition and markets.
What are we seeing today? The USA fighting proxy wars over resources, competition and markets.
US politicians don’t get campaign financing from children or grandchildren … they get it from rich doners who want their fortunes protected and continued growth.
There is no children and grandchildren lobby paying for their golf holidays and giving them fat consulting jobs after their done with politics.
I’m all for free enterprise, I’ve been self employed most of my life. I’m all for investment. However what we have today in the west is a casino where the whales never lose and the cleaning staff have to pay to refloat them if the fuck up too bad.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 12 2024 21:13 utc | 251
I’ve just read the free part of this – money’s tight so reluctantly I can’t support Simplicus at the moment and haven’t been able to read the entire piece so all I can hope for is either that
a)he’s wrong, or
b) there is an some better news in the paywalled part of the article
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/can-the-west-still-win-analyzing?utm_campaign=email-post&r=43iib&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Posted by: SIr_Keef | Jul 12 2024 21:15 utc | 252
May 4, 1988, “Biden resting after surgery for second brain aneurysm, NY Times, https://www.nytimes.com/1988/05/04/us/biden-resting-after-surgery-for-second-brain-aneurysm.html…
Biden was given “last rites:”
10/18/2008, “Biden’s Medical History Not Scrutinized,” Politico via CBS News
“Joe Biden’s near-fatal aneurysms in 1988 have yet to come under the spotlight. Soon after ending his first presidential bid that year, Biden, who had been suffering from what he thought were headaches and a pinched nerve, collapsed in a hotel room shortly after giving a speech on foreign policy.
In his book “Promises to Keep,” Biden says that he was unconscious for over four hours before he woke up in a hospital in Wilmington, Del. The senator was told that an artery was leaking blood into his brain and he was given his last rites by a priest. He was transferred to Walter Reed Medical Center where it was discovered that he had a second aneurysm on the other side of his brain.”…
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bidens-medical-history-not-scrutinized/
Posted by: susan mullen | Jul 12 2024 21:54 utc | 253
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 12 2024 18:23 utc | 233
1) Accelerated perhaps, but there were increasing bilateral defence ties, pre-SMO
4) Perhaps a planned outcome (see point 6)
5) to an extent, but Ukraine has never been trained to operate under anything more than a shadow NATO doctrine e.g. no meaningful air element, no structure above brigade, sub-units training focused mainly on counter-insurgency/ counter armour, raid tactics. Artillery and ISR was one area where Ukraine was trained to a nominal Western standard and it shows.
6) is too sweeping, suffers from the ‘form over function fallacy’, in which a weapons combat performance is the prime determinant of its effectiveness and shows a bias towards front-line echelon forces, over support services.
Your conclusion is only true if the headline motivations, strategies and desired outcomes of the West, were/are the only ones being enacted, which some analysts doubt. You might be correct, but judging a conflicts trajectory before it’s over is rarely a wise move.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 12 2024 22:02 utc | 254
If all this is true, and I’m beginning to think it is, whoever chose the target or even entertained the idea of bombing a building right next to a big children’s hospital, is a moron and didn’t serve his country well this time around.
This is a tiring mendacity. Israel, our saintly ally, ‘fighting’ sorry I mean pacifying the Gaza ghetto, has blown up every fucking hospital and with it the patients inside. Given Russia is fighting an actual army, instead of a poorly equipped civilian militia, that is.
The ability for the media to deceive people with selective moral outrage is rapidly diminishing, if not already gone. In fact, I’d say the ‘hay’ to be made with this strike and a dollar might buy you a coffee.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 12 2024 22:07 utc | 255
I reckon that if the US war industry offered Trump a decent backhander to change his Ukraine position he’d unhesitatingly do it. I’m not sure why so many people think he will do what he says. Did Mexico pay for the wall that wasn’t built?
Posted by: D J G | Jul 12 2024 22:13 utc | 256
264, I appreciate your perspectives because your a rationalist with apparent subject matter expertise.
You’re not wrong, but you can’t fault me for strongly pushing back on the idea that, without knowing some secret hidden agenda (maybe they’re all scientologists?) that this calamity is somehow an apparent win?
All known indicators so far point to massive strategic debacle. I’ll accept there are unknowns, but watching clowns like Sullivan up there defending or even selling this siutation like it was some genius moves, I want Kissinger to rise from his grave and slap him in the head.
A war crimes tribunal later on will suffice.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 12 2024 22:13 utc | 257
@ Peter AU1 | Jul 12 2024 17:48 utc | 224
i don’t really understand the fanatical hatred the uk shows towards russia.. it makes very little to no sense to me… i suspect they will continue to behave in a very unfriendly and hostile manner, but whether they do something really stupid – they are capable of it, but hopefully not..
@ William Gruff | Jul 12 2024 18:00 utc | 227
i agree with you, and again am fascinated by this subjective hatred they show towards russia.. it is pavlovian! does it have to do with the royalty or something?? or is it just the fact that the wealthy covet russias natural wealth?? it is really quite pronounced either way…
Posted by: james | Jul 12 2024 22:29 utc | 259
If you haven’t figured it out yet, the Ukr war was been a great success for NATO, if you approach it from the correct perspective. While leaving Russia prostate would have been a wonderful outcome from the point of view of the neocons, the actual accomplishment of killing off 580,000 mostly hardened Slav soldiers is a wonderful head start for NATO when the *real* fighting begins. A dead Ukie soldier is one less soldier that Russia could recruit in a war against NATO – having dead Russian soldiers is just a bonus.
Posted by: Simpleton | Jul 12 2024 19:42 utc | 237
—————
Um, yeah Russia isn’t recruiting any Ukrs until the whole concept has been beaten out of them. How else but the utter ruin & discredit of Bandera’s cause & Westiod cargo-cultism are they going to do that?
——————-
The numbers belie the reports that UK, France, Germany are “oh so weak, just a single fighter squadron they can deploy”. Sorry, I believe this is misdirection. Just like saying the F16’s that are going to show up are “old and decrepit”, and flown by undertrained Ukie pilots. Maybe I’m wrong and they actually *are* but I think its more likely the F16’s that show up are better than advertised, with outright NATO pilots, or perhaps even remotely piloted from Oklahoma (as an aside, I suspect a large portion of the Ukie drones are in fact controlled from outside Ukkraine, again via Starlink to NATO command bunkers who knows where.
—————–
This is pure NATO cope & inflation. The European NATO armies, are in a dreadful state particularly the UK.
That is a proven fact, not 5d manipulation. As for the rest pure NATO-style techo-narcissism.
If they had that capacity, their most precious pets the IDF would be using it. And would’ve cleared Gaza & crushed Lebanon. To say nothing of the black-eyes the Houthis have been dishing out, with impunity.
Control from “hidden-bunkers” would be easier to deal with. Which is why so many “mercs” are getting killed in Ukraine, they need to be on the ground to be halfway effective.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Jul 12 2024 22:31 utc | 260
Some days old now but it’s about the most recent piece I can find when searching for updates about Ukraine’s debt negotiations: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-add-gdp-warrants-debt-talks-eyes-deal-before-deadline-sources-say-2024-07-01/
LONDON, July 1 (Reuters) – Ukraine told investors it still expects to succeed in its unprecedented aim of restructuring debt in the middle of a war before payment moratoriums expire by Aug. 1, according to four sources who joined a call with the Finance Ministry on Monday.
The war-torn country also intends to include GDP warrants as part of its effort to restructure some $20 billion of international bonds, said the sources.
Monday’s call marks part of Ukraine’s fresh push to engage with investors after formal restructuring talks last month ended without an agreement.
Statements released last week showed there was a wide gap between the 20% haircut bondholders are prepared to give and a proposal from Ukraine that would have translated into a haircut of up to 60%.
“They believe that an agreement can be reached soon,” one of the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The Finance Ministry also assured investors on the call that the bonds linked to economic performance would be index eligible, two of the sources said, an important feature for those who want to trade them. Yuriy Butsa, head of Ukraine’s debt management office, who is leading the country’s engagement with creditors, spoke on the call and was joined by representatives from the government’s advisers and the IMF mission chief to Ukraine, Gavin Gray, the sources said.
On the creditor side, members of the Ad Hoc Creditor Committee joined, along with investors who were not part of the group.
Ukraine has $19.7 billion outstanding on its international bonds and owes $2.6 billion on GDP warrants – a fixed-income instrument with payouts that are linked to the strength of economic output growth. The warrants were created as a sweetener to creditors during Ukraine’s 2015 debt restructuring in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
The statement released last week, which details the government’s restructuring proposal to bondholders, only mentioned the GDP warrants in the context of removing a cross default clause between the bonds and the warrants. Some investors had interpreted this as a sign that Kyiv did not envisage restructuring both types of debt at the same time, but dealing with the bonds first.
However, the message was now that something had to be done with the warrants as well, the sources said, as the payments due on the warrants were included in the IMF’s crucial debt sustainability analysis (DSA), and could also siphon money away from the largely token coupon payments that the government proposed to make to bondholders under the restructuring.
“Ukraine has proposed that the new bonds will have no events of default related to or referencing the GDP warrants, while our proposal recognises that GDP warrants payments included in the DSA are taking up substantial headroom,” the ministry told Reuters via email.
An IMF spokesperson declined to comment.
Ukraine’s bonds have risen by more than 2 cents since the initial negotiations failed, suggesting some optimism that a deal could be reached. Though they fell slightly on Tuesday, they were trading between 27.8 cents and 31.49 cents.
The GDP warrant, however, has shed more than 1 cent since the initial restricted talks ended.
Ukraine also intends to add a most-favoured creditor clauses in the restructured bond instruments to ensure that those holding the state-owned enterprises’ debt would not get a better deal when that debt at is restructured at a later stage.
1st August isṇ̣’t far away now, I guess there’s some kind of brinkmanship being played by both sides.
Have any barflies found anything more up-to-date?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 12 2024 22:32 utc | 261
Once one realises that Russia has no intention whatsoever of invading a NATO country, then the raison d’etre behind the provision of weaponry to Ukraine unravels completely.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jul 13 2024 0:00 utc | 262
@ HERMIUS | Jul 13 2024 0:00 utc | 262
an important thought.. and how do you convince nato which works so well for the military, banking and energy complex of the validity of that?? for them, the idea of peace is ”counter” productive monetarily..
Posted by: james | Jul 13 2024 0:07 utc | 263
Simplicus’ paid part of the article says more of what was in the first half. Yeah, the AI plans on the drawing board and theoretical capabilities could well keep Ukraine in the running but he misses something fundamental from a real world perspective.
I doubt Simplicus has much experience as a US factory worker. I have worked in dozens of factories making all kinds of different shit and trust me, shit is what today’s ‘merican factory worker puts out. The absolute minimum of product of the shittiest quality possible without getting fired. One job I had was weighing powder for detonators for JDAM missiles. I shit you not – I swear I was the only one on the entire night shift that made sure my weight tolerances were correct. So when the 5 million dollar NATO munition fails to do its job I have a face attached to the fail… a high school drop out hung over and high on weed in the station next to me.
“Idiocracy” went from satire to documentary to horror show.
Posted by: comrade simba | Jul 13 2024 0:12 utc | 264
@ HERMIUS | Jul 13 2024 0:00 utc | 262
an important thought.. and how do you convince nato which works so well for the military, banking and energy complex of the validity of that?? for them, the idea of peace is ”counter” productive monetarily..
Posted by: james | Jul 13 2024 0:07 utc | 263
Yes. I agree. But the vast majority of people are not MIC industrialists or make a profit from war. Its those people, the ordinary man on the street, that will not be swayed by the profit motive.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jul 13 2024 0:12 utc | 265
ZH has a posing up with the title
Zelensky Angry US Won’t Lift Restrictions On Strikes Deeper Into Russia
the quote
“If we want to win, if we want to prevail, if we want to save our country and to defend it, we need to lift all the limitations,” Zelensky said while standing alongside NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in the summit’s closing session.
The Ukrainian president argued that this is crucial for “having Ukraine on the map” and not allowing Russia to “attack half of the planet.”
“That is a crazy question why we can’t answer and attack these… military bases from where these guided bombs from jets or missiles came, targeted us and killed our children,” Zelensky continued, clearly criticizing his own more powerful backers.
Are we being set up for a Z stepping over a targeting red line?
At what point does Z become a target because of his actions?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 13 2024 0:48 utc | 266
Posted by: james | Jul 12 2024 22:29 utc | 259
The murderous hostility of Britain towards Russia reflects the mentality of its elites, now transplanted in the entire Anglosphere. It isn’t something mystical, but it involves the interests of said elites through their worldview.
Thus, until the Great Game of the 19th cent., there wasn’t any actual conflict between the two empires. But the expansion of colonialism in that era led the British elites to perceive the vast Russian empire as a truly serious competitor on a global stage. No other state had such size and potential scope. Of course, there were increasingly severe domestic problems within Russia, whose own elites were extremely inflexible in addressing them.
The key point, however, was the October Revolution in 1917. Not only did the Reds bring down a liberal government who would be harmless towards the British, they ectually established a new paradigm that was wholly antithetical with the nature of the British regime. The nationalization of the banks, the repudiation of the foreign dept and the public rejection of the concept of racial hierarchy along with the initiation of the anti-colonial struggle (Soviet Russia was the ONLY country in 1919 that recognized Irish independence), all led to create an intense hostility towards the Russians.
It was really all over, as the statements of Churchill revealed. The controversies regarding religion or other forms of iconocklasm on the part of the Red Russians were not a real issue. After all, western/Anglo elites were not paragons of Christian values nor champions of meaningful democracy and stood only for traditions that served their interests. No, this was an ideological and potentially military threat towards oligarchic rule that transcended all other considerations.
In this, one has to remember that unlike the elites of other cultures,nations or empires, those of the Anglosphere (the British empire and the US) have NEVER faced the fire in the modern era. They have never been inconvenienced by foreing conquests (other elites) or internal upheavals (politically active plebs and middle class toppling themetc.). Instead, they have reigned supreme dominating the globe, amassing unimaginable wealth and since WWII, upholding the collective interests of other capitalist elites too. For them, the threat of the Reds (Soviets, Chinese and now somewhat left-leaning Russians supporting patriotic leftists in latin America etc.) is an absolute anathema.
Of course, the historical developments aren’t like a typical Hollywood film as countries maintain relations, even with ups and downs. But that’s the real cause for Anglo-American hatred towards Russia. Add to that the fanatical neo-Hitlerite hatred of the neocons with their own complexes (former Trotskyists, Zionists etc.) and you have the modern hybrid neo-Barbarossa onslaught.
Posted by: Constantine | Jul 13 2024 1:25 utc | 267
is crucial for “having Ukraine on the map”
Are we being set up for a Z stepping over a targeting red line?
At what point does Z become a target because of his actions?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 13 2024 0:48 utc | 266
I’d shed no tears if ukraine was no longer on any current map.
And if Z line sniffer wants to cross something red, hope it’s a red light and he gets run over.
Now seriously, I put as much trust in “the US not letting ukraine hit RF proper” as in “US not letting IDF slaughter Gaza population”
That talk can be used as manure to replace the lack of russian fertilizers at best.
Posted by: Newbie | Jul 13 2024 1:26 utc | 268
Posted by: Newbie | Jul 13 2024 1:26 utc | 268
I have no problem with Ukraine being on the map as long as iy is the original one with Unrainians and not mentally enslaved, Nazified Rusyn. Which means that west Ukraine should be present as Ruthenia with the Rusyn returning to their roots as the fourth nation of the Kievan Rus.
Posted by: Constantine | Jul 13 2024 1:31 utc | 269
Quote: Cynic | Jul 12 2024 0:48 utc | 58
“I saw a video of civilians in Kiev being interviewed a few months back. They fully believed Russia was taking massive losses and would soon collapse.”
Antony Beevor recounts almost the exact thing; German civilians telling convalescing Wehrmacht troops on a tram in March, 1945 that with the massive losses the Soviets were taking and the Feuhrer’s new wunderwaffen the war will be won soon. The troops listening were horrified. At that time nearly all of Prussia had been overrun.
Posted by: James Lawrie | Jul 13 2024 2:05 utc | 270
If it is to be blown in days, might as well send an old crappy one
https://sputnikglobe.com/20240711/us-sending-to-ukraine-older-patriot-battery-valued-at-100mln—pentagon-1119343805.html
Posted by: Newbie | Jul 13 2024 2:23 utc | 271
@ HERMIUS | Jul 13 2024 0:12 utc | 265
true, when the msm quits lying to them and the ordinary plebs see this for what it is.. and how long will that be??
@ Constantine | Jul 13 2024 1:25 utc | 267
thanks.. yes, i agree.. nothing else explains it… i am quoting you below as this summarizes it in as brief a manner as possible..
(1917 and after)..”this was an ideological and potentially military threat towards oligarchic rule that transcended all other considerations.”
and they knew it from that moment on too – tried to stop it in fact.. margaret macmilliams book “paris 1919” is a good book to understand the importance of what was happening on the world stage at this particular time – a little over 100 years ago.. i haven’t read that many history books, but i did read this one..
Posted by: james | Jul 13 2024 4:48 utc | 272
“Ukrainian regulator wants children to continue speaking Russian despite restrictions – The Kiev regime wants to tighten restrictions on the use of the Russian language and encourage citizens to register ‘violations of language legislation and report them to the competent authorities’.”
https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/515797-ninos-ucranianos-siguen-hablando-ruso
Posted by: Elber | Jul 13 2024 6:00 utc | 273
Posted by: Elber | Jul 13 2024 6:00 utc | 273
Automatic translator error!
The correct text is:
Ukrainian regulator complains that children continue to speak Russian…
Posted by: Elber | Jul 13 2024 6:08 utc | 274
Field report, without localities, from an SVO volunteer. July 12.
I returned from my first rotation on the frontline. The business trip was interesting, eventful and quite effective (I will write about the implementation of the combat mission separately).
First. FPV (First Person View) drones – UAVs with real-time video transmission from the drone’s camera to the monitor, glasses or helmet of the pilot, carrying cumulative, explosive or buckshot ammunition. In reality, I encountered this phenomenon for the first time; in my past business trips, these weapons were not used en masse.
The swineherd FPV drone attacked us on the first day of arrival at the LBS, the gap occurred 7 meters away from me, the charge capacity is 100-200 g of TNT. Unpleasant, scary, but no one was injured.
The enemy has a lot of similar drones, flying everywhere and everywhere, creating the feeling that a flock of mosquitoes is constantly buzzing around your head. On certain days, they don’t fly at all (apparently, when rotation occurs).
Fighting men who have gone through many military conflicts and work trips in the Wagner PMC do not like such a war. “Cock war” – so they call the current situation when some mother’s nerd at the remote control of a drone with ammunition can kill an experienced attack aircraft. In general, this is a direct analogy to the plot of the movie “The Last Samurai”, in which peasants armed with firearms win victories over samurai-real warriors with weapons of the last generation.
Our squad also has a UAV unit. We fly over the enemy, scout and find targets. There are FPV drones, but in much smaller numbers compared to the enemy.
In general, I would like to note that in a wooded area, the use of FPV drones by the enemy has limited effectiveness. Following all the established rules for being on the LBS (do not shine in open spaces, etc.) reduces the probability of losses to zero.
Second. EW (electronic warfare) – the impact of radio emissions (radio interference) on the electronic means of enemy control, communication and intelligence systems. In this area, the situation in our team is quite good.
I got acquainted with a number of devices (stationary and portable), their use is effective, the quality of this type of equipment is constantly improving, and the number is increasing. Sometimes the enemy uses frequencies outside the operating range of our devices, so there is something to work on and strive for in this issue.
The limited use of electronic warfare is due to the fact that the continuous operation time of devices is limited to 30-40 minutes (devices heat up) and it is not possible to create continuous protection from enemy combat FPV drones.
The third. Artillery. Of course, this type of weapon, which has become the main one for both sides during the CDF, creates the greatest danger. On both sides, the points identified during the reconnaissance are being worked out (in a bundle of reconnaissance UAVs/artillery/FPV drones). I omit the event-chronological part of the story.
In general, the situation along the entire length of the front, I think, is not much different. Thus, a positional impasse has developed, in which attempts to attack actions are fraught with great losses for any of the parties to the conflict. I will write about the political consequences of this situation after the contract is completed.
That’s all for now. It was a little dry. I’ll write about the combat task in a few days, it will be interesting and funny.
Private Gubarev finished his report.
machine translated
https://t.me/s/pgubarev/1026
Posted by: too scents | Jul 13 2024 6:32 utc | 275
“Australia said on Friday (12) it had arrested a Russian-born couple on espionage charges, alleging the woman, an information systems technician in the Australian military, tried to access defense material and send it to Russian authorities.”
https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/internacional/australia-acusa-casal-russo-que-vive-no-pais-de-espionagem/
Posted by: Elber | Jul 13 2024 6:49 utc | 276
Posted by: James Lawrie | Jul 13 2024 2:05 utc | 270
The German soldiers weren’t immune to this distortion of reality, frontline soldiers, even up to late ‘44 believed that the Red Army was close to collapse. Diary entries from Stalingrad show many German soldiers believed that Hitler would rescue them and turn the tide. German troops didn’t fight in the later war simply because they were ordered to, or misplaced nationalist zeal, many kept fighting because they genuinely believed the states propaganda.
These motivations only began to change when the Red Army’s fiery breath was felt on the borders of Prussia and soldiers knew they were about to reap the whirlwind they’d sown in the blackened ruins of thousands of villages across Russia. Motivations again were still tainted with the deluded hope that the Allies would make peace with Germany and turn on Russia, if the troops bought enough time.
Propaganda works best when its seeds are planted and fertilised in young minds, and Ukraine, like Nazi Germany before, are seeing the real-world implications of such educational programmes and social re-enforcement structures.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 13 2024 7:20 utc | 277
A deliberately myopic one. This is spin. It’s based on maybe the F16s will have NATO pilots and maybe the real reason was to kill soldiers and waste materiel as a prelude to a WW3 that the West can’t win in any circumstances. The entire premise is ridiculous, the Ukronazis want to join NATO, and would have been great allies for this proposed WW3. Now theyre mostly dead, along with the image of NATO as…lets say competent?
NATO doesn’t want to fight. For good reason. They want to ‘inflict costs’. They succeeded, just mostly in the wrong direction.
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. The gods after all first make mad those they would destroy.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 12 2024 20:11 utc | 240
I think the ‘WW3’ is fought in Ukraine. NATO is free to send whatever it wants to Ukraine. Since NATO is losing in Ukraine, they are now launching attacks from Romanian airfields in hope of getting RU to hit one of those bases.
I do think there is a high tolerance RU will not hit the NATO base, but a tolerance, nevertheless. Say, 50 F-16 sent from a Romanian base at a single time would probably be one.
The only viable contestors NATO has for ‘conventional war’ are mostly Poles, Finns and maybe to some extent Swedes/ Norwegians and Brits. Of these, there is a certain pool of hardcore nazis, most have already been spent in Ukraine.
But so far I think Ukraine is the proxy arena where NATO-Russia war is being fought, and NATO is afraid/can’t send troops there. They can’t base air force in Ukraine. This is a yardstick where RU is winning.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 13 2024 7:26 utc | 278
“Thus, a positional impasse has developed, in which attempts to attack actions are fraught with great losses for any of the parties to the conflict.”
Posted by: too scents | Jul 13 2024 6:32 utc |
Thus, a classic quagmire, stalemate, which favors the defender, Ukraine. It appears Putin has stumbled into WW1 style trench warfare. He must dream of his one chance in 2022, when he had fast access to Kyiv and elsewhere. His best hope now is a Korea-like cease-fire.
Posted by: Napoleon | Jul 13 2024 7:27 utc | 279
Posted by: Napoleon | Jul 13 2024 7:27 utc | 279
Actually, contrary to popular belief, AFU has been doing most of the attacking during SMO and recently.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 13 2024 7:32 utc | 280
How is it posdible that Russoa cannot afford FPV drones in te quantities that Ukraine bought from China?
Posted by: vargas | Jul 13 2024 7:34 utc | 281
From the channel of the Group of Forces North:
Iskanders turned out to be very effective against American Patriots
Most recently, Russian crews of the Iskander-M OTRK destroyed two Patriot air defense systems in the area of the village of Yuzhnoye in the Odessa region.
This did not go unnoticed by the Western media, which noted the amazing effectiveness of Russian missiles in suppressing the Ukrainian air defense system, and this is indeed the case.
Western analysts write: “Iskanders” are not intended to suppress enemy air defenses, but repeated cases of their use in this capacity show the effectiveness of the OTRK in destroying the “Patriot” and S-300 used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.”
The precise guidance system that the Iskanders are equipped with allows them to correct the missile’s flight in the air and destroy mobile targets, in particular the S-300.
The use of Iskanders will allow the Russian army to save a large number of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, which were previously used to destroy American Patriots and others. With the same effectiveness, Russian missiles will be able to strike airfields where F-16 aircraft are based.
https://x.com/East_Calling/status/1811810919854346359
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 13 2024 7:41 utc | 282
@ HERMIUS | Jul 13 2024 0:00 utc | 262
I agree that Russia has no intention whatsoever of invading a NATO country, but I don’t see why would raison d’etre behind the provision of weaponry to Ukraine unravel completely.
War between Ukraine and Russia could seen as a war waged on the total population of the Atlanticist block. Very successful one, too. Just think of Estonia at the helm of the Old Continent’s foreign policy and a having colonial policy in Africa. What a wonderful world!
Posted by: js | Jul 13 2024 7:41 utc | 283
Posted by: Sam | Jul 12 2024 20:26 utc | 245
Putin has proved himself to be a weak leader since end of Sochi olympics-all his decisions have been in reaction to Anglos’ machinations rather than his own initiative to destroy enemies of Russia for which he has to utterly destroy England to pulp. <=quite so, his long windedness seems to have caused Mr. Biden to lose his mind?
Posted by: Bill r | Jul 12 2024 20:33 utc | 247
I suggested earlier, knock out Europe's fossil fuel and they[Europe] are back to the stone age without nuclear war.
<= that seems practical..? but the reason for the SMO was to erase the NAZI presence in Ukraine and to keep safe the Russian Speaking people.
218, 222, 223, 224, 227, 259 Gruff, James, Peter AUI
I suggest Britain is the strategic commander.. its controls puppets. 2,3,4,5,..n. When it comes to politics within the top echelons of the USA, Britain seems to me to be always at the base of USA foreign policy.
From a Russian POV, I believe Britain would be a productive target because its elite hate Russia and because Britain is the driving force for war in Ukraine against Russia? But it is difficult to hurt the British elite because all their money is hidden away in several offshore Islands. Maybe hit the tax shelter Islands.. destroy their banks .. would produce some productive results.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Jul 13 2024 0:00 utc | 262
Once one realises that Russia has no intention whatsoever of invading a NATO country, then the raison d'etre behind the provision of weaponry to Ukraine unravels completely.
Yes, it is this fact which makes the Western drive against Russia including its willingness to drown a boat full of Ukrainians so difficult to understand.. Greed based Competition is the only explanation I see.
Posted by: snake | Jul 13 2024 7:43 utc | 284
How is it posdible that Russoa cannot afford FPV drones in te quantities that Ukraine bought from China?
Posted by: vargas | Jul 13 2024 7:34 utc | 281
—
I will hammer this point until it is well understood.
It is not the drones that count. It is the radios
Posted by: too scents | Jul 13 2024 7:44 utc | 285
Posted by: Milites | Jul 13 2024 7:20 utc | 277
It should be added, that according to Jacques Ellul, propaganda works best with a somewhat educated middle class. They need to be educated enough to be able to read and understand the propaganda, but not that it is propaganda. More importantly, they should be educated enough to repeat the propaganda to others from a stand point of certainty and authority.
Like the Americans and Brits, who used the techniques developed by Eduard Bernays to push cigarettes and The New Deal, the German National-Socialists later used opinion surveys to see how well their propaganda had worked. They found it had almost no effect on elder and illiterate farmers in remote rural regions but was very effective with the more literate younger generation.
Posted by: kvp | Jul 13 2024 7:44 utc | 286
Posted by: too scents | Jul 13 2024 6:32 utc | 275
It comes down to what’s producing the 5000 per month, or whatever, of irrecoverable losses (medical discharges or deaths). This will be strongly context dependent but I’ve never seen a report that put this into numbers so we’re reduced to comparing relative frequency and turn of phrase.
Some reports give the impression that, at the very front, where FPVs are most active, drones might account for most of it (75%, say), Private Gubarev doesn’t give that impression but the Wagner reference is strangely tangential and using 100-200 g of TNT as his only baseline for warhead lethality is verging on absurdity.
Warheads are typically a kilo or two, with UA seemingly having a supply of factory produced thermobaric and fragmentation warheads of this weight. Hard to square his report with all the other contemporary reports.
We’re no closer to a decent understanding of what’s producing the losses, which is a shame, because I’m perfectly happy to defer to reality.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 13 2024 7:46 utc | 287
Posted by: vargas | Jul 13 2024 7:34 utc | 281
NATO went ‘all-in’ on FPV drones. They are cheap and easy to manufacture using only limited amount of simple components, that is why they can produce so many.
In contrast, NATO is sorely lacking in every other category, in the AD/artillery/tank/IFV department.
Russian MIC is geared up toward these other departments and are lacking in FPV drones.
China could probably augment RU FPV drones.
The main issue to solve would be denying NATO of FPV drone capabilities. My guess is localized EMP pulses could periodically take down drones in a given area. And how do you generate EMP pulse?
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 13 2024 7:47 utc | 288
Posted by: snake | Jul 13 2024 7:43 utc | 284
If NATO strikes Russia from Romania, they should not hit the base in Romania, but rather critical industrial facilities and bases in Britain itself. Since Britain already hates Russia the most, there is little to lose in terms of reputation. British media is screaming and slandering and lying every day. There’s little more they can do.
Or maybe they are burning British weapon plants already covertly, there have been occasions.
When a gang is bullying you, don’t attack the weakest links, strike the ring leader. If you punch hard enough, the rest of the gang will wither/scatter away. Or in best case, some of them even acknowledge you as the new pack leader.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 13 2024 7:52 utc | 289
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 13 2024 7:46 utc | 287
The thing with FPV drone, is what was written by private Gubarev, is anyone can learn to control and use them. Even a grandfather of Biden’s age.
Think you have a massive pool of small FPV drones somewhere laid out ready to go. Each have their own IP address and is connected through the internet to some controller in Poland or any Baltlet state.
The controller sitting in a basement has a mini-map containing targets, some sort of system that relays the current drone position. The controller takes over the control of a drone, takes off, flies to target. The drone is gone, the controller then uses the SW interface and takes control of the next drone in the pool. You can hit the drone operator with a low chance if they are operating in the rear, so this isn’t really an option.
The drones are lightweight. Lightweight drones require lightweight protection. The Kevlar net shotgun is ok I guess. The other solution would be disabling NATO satellites in orbit and physically remove the control links.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 13 2024 8:04 utc | 290
I do think there is a high tolerance RU will not hit the NATO base, but a tolerance, nevertheless. Say, 50 F-16 sent from a Romanian base at a single time would probably be one.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 13 2024 7:26 utc | 278
The question is how many pilots has nato managed to trick. I doubt they have 50, but a wave of 20 is very doable. According to Turkish media, highways around Kiev are being repaired, apparently they’re prepared for planes. So they may attempt multiple passes in a single action, since there’s a high probability they will be shot down. The more planes survive each wave, the more pilots will want to do it for money.
It’s also interesting UN GA had a vote for Russia to give ZNPP to Ukr and withdraw troops and all workers. Only 9 were against (Belarus, Burundi, Cuba, North Korea, Eritrea, Mali, Nicaragua, Russia, Syria), 60 abstained including the rest of Brics circus, and 99 voted yes, including Turkey.
Posted by: rk | Jul 13 2024 8:07 utc | 291
Posted by: Napoleon | Jul 13 2024 7:27 utc | 279
Take care you don’t extrapolate an individuals account to come to conclusions about a 2000km+ front, an especially insidious form of confirmation bias. If the situation he describes was replicated then the changes on the front-line would not have occurred and the current Western reactions would not be being observed.
I don’t think Putin’s in a quagmire, I think Ukraine, and the West, have got caught up in their own bear trap and can’t figure a way to extricate themselves.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 13 2024 7:41 utc | 282
‘That which could not be done can now be done, and that which could be done cannot be’, the creed of all ascent/descent cycles, from martial matters to the psychological realm.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 13 2024 8:16 utc | 292
Actually, contrary to popular belief, AFU has been doing most of the attacking during SMO and recently.
Posted by: unimperator
Granted, as in trench warfare, Russia and Ukraine, both have an advantage when defending their lines, according to Private Gubarev above.
Strategically, over time, this tactical reality favors the defender Ukraine. The front has locked for two years and the weaker nation (404) has stopped the stronger invader.
Posted by: Napoleon | Jul 13 2024 8:17 utc | 293
Posted by: Milites | Jul 13 2024 8:16 utc | 292
The Iskander AFAIK is a product of the INF treaty. At least according to Martyanov, the range of Iskander is easy to increase from 500km by adding another booster section. Albeit, whether or not adding a booster, due to increased length would require a larger container and hence a different launching platform would render this ineffective? Or would the current Iskander container accommodate it? I don’t know, but the Russians are pretty good at making provisions into their weapon systems for easy modification.
Say, instance Iskander could get an 800km range. That would nearly cover Lwow. 900km would do it. Iskander, in large supply by now, would easily cover NATO air defense systems and airfields all the way to the Polish border. Now that is a game changer.
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 13 2024 8:23 utc | 294
My guess is localized EMP pulses could periodically take down drones in a given area. And how do you generate EMP pulse?
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 13 2024 7:47 utc | 288
There are many ways to make emp pulses but it also takes down your own toys in the area.
You can’t use the method close to your troops or inside your city. Which makes it not very useful against drones since the smo happens only in Russia.
They will simply have to improve standard EW and mechanical means, like various types of small projectile “shotguns”, make them automated and so on. There was news abut a week ago that an AI drone detector was trained by RF and will be used soon.
The best idea for this moment comes from nato itself: graphite bombs. See how party people in Kiev and Lvov like it.
Posted by: rk | Jul 13 2024 8:30 utc | 295
It’s pretty much inconceivable, but suppose Russia were to attack the US electricity grid the same way Russia is downsizing the Ukraine electricity grid.
Ukraine’s electricity grid was a Soviet design, and pretty much redundant. How does the US compare?
Also, the US has a large number of data centers. Data centers are power-hungry and do not handle rolling blackouts very well.
Would it make sense to prioritize data centers over homes? To have blackouts for homes to keep the data centers running?
Posted by: Passerby | Jul 13 2024 8:34 utc | 296
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 12 2024 20:11 utc | 240
You’re correct
The synchophants of Nato and the EU have been blowing smoke up each other asses so long they can’t or won’t perceive any outcome outside their own demented gameplay being correct.
There was a Marine commander who did his job.
Paul van Riper
Wasn’t thanked for it.
These are the same clown school.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002
Posted by: jpc | Jul 13 2024 8:40 utc | 297
How does the US compare?
Posted by: Passerby | Jul 13 2024 8:34 utc | 296
Better, but not great. You could bring down the entire grid for an extended period of time simply by taking out a fair number of larger transformers. There are very few in inventory — and (reportedly) they all come from China!
It’s been widely cited that after an EMP attack 80% of the population would be dead within six months. If things get serious, get FAR away from the cities as you’d never get out alive.
—
The reason AFU dominates in FPVs is that it’s the only card they have to play so they concentrate their efforts there. RF doesn’t need to do the same as they have overwhelming superiority in all other aspects; you play to your strengths, not the enemies. Again, AFU is bringing knives to a gunfight and the results are obvious. Yes, FPV’s are deadly nuisance, but the SMO is a real-world laboratory and they’ll eventually find a way to neutralize those as they have all prior wunderwaffen.
Should NATO someday decide to commit itself fully they’ll have no new cards left to play.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jul 13 2024 8:54 utc | 298
How does the US compare?
Posted by: Passerby | Jul 13 2024 8:34 utc | 296
Since Russia is a large provider of nuclear fuel for US, breaking records in exports as we speak, I think the simplest thing they could do is stop selling energy to they guys who cluster bomb their beaches or like a few days ago, some kids playing. That applies to EU as well. Or at least sell at a price so high, the killed won’t die for $5
Posted by: rk | Jul 13 2024 8:56 utc | 299
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 13 2024 7:46 utc | 287
What’s always done it, HE, whether air-dropped by a drone, delivered in a shell, bomb, mine, rocket, missile or grenade. My bet would be that mortars and AGL’s are inflicting far more than the footage suggests. I also thing that false-perception syndrome is running rife, with every casualty being blamed on drones, just as every tank was a Tiger, every gun an ‘88’. Drones are a substitute weapons platform, but a ground-breaking advance in tactical ISR, making battle-fields far closer to table-top wargames in their accelerated reaction cycles and replication of the 600ft generals syndrome.
My guess is that whilst the Russian troops on the ground experience the tactical influence of drones, their Ukrainian counter-parts experience their operational and strategic influence with a far greater frequency and, whilst the former assists victory, the latter guarantees it.
Posted by: Napoleon | Jul 13 2024 8:17 utc | 293
Strategically, Ukraine is in an infinitely worse place than it was one year ago, let alone two. As for stopping, what’s Russia been stopped from? Destroying the ability of Ukraine to be continuously sustained, first using ex-Warpac kit, then surplus NATO? Destroying an army that took 8 years to create? Destroying a fortified front-line that has been in existence for 14 years?
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 13 2024 8:23 utc | 294
Good articles on the platform.
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/iskander-m-and-iskander-k-technical-profile
Note the system can fire CM’s, so it can already hit targets out to the range bands you mentioned, but any upgrade to the BM’s performance would probably be due to the efficiency of its engines, and or reducing the missile’s weight. You could add a booster, but that would require a new TEL (Transporter Erector Launcher) so a possibility that’s being increasingly used in SLEP’s (service life extension programme) for many current missiles.
Posted by: Milites | Jul 13 2024 9:12 utc | 300