Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 17, 2024

Zelenski's Summit Has Failed

The reviews of Zelenski's latest show ain't positive:

The summit served warmed up bullshit without any significant nutritional value. The most important points weren't even discussed:

Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand - 8:48 UTC · Jun 17, 2024

Genuinely astonishing how the final communiqué of Swiss “Summit on Peace in Ukraine” (link) is basically 6 out of the 12 points of China's February 2023 "Peace plan" (link), and only that.

In short it's the Chinese peace plan, without:

  • A call for a cessation of hostilities
  • A call to resume peace talks.
  • A call to "abandon the Cold War mentality"
  • A call to resolve the humanitarian crisis.
  • An agreement to remove "unilateral sanctions"
  • An agreement to support post-conflict reconstruction

The only points it keeps from the Chinese peace plan are:

  • Point 1: To base the resolution of the conflict on the UN Charter
  • Point 6: Asking that all prisoners of war and detainees should be released
  • Points 7 & 8: Calling for nuclear plants to be safe and stating that nuclear weapons shouldn't be used
  • Points 9 & 11: Asking that food security and supply chains be maintained and be weaponized

And that's almost 1 year and a half AFTER the Chinese Peace Plan, which the West rejected immediately out of hand and ironically criticized as being "vague" even though the outcome of this Swiss summit is now far vaguer, in fact it's so vague it removed all the aspects of the Chinese plan that actually proposed a path to a sustainable peace ...

Just goes to show how far away we are from peace, almost 2 years and a half into the war... And also goes to show that maybe, just maybe, China's proposal wasn't so bad after all 😏

As Strana summarizes (machine translation):

The final declaration included a clause on the need to involve "all parties" in the negotiations, which can be interpreted as a desire to involve the Russian Federation in future summits. This was stated by many participants of the summit (primarily from the countries of the "global South"). Zelensky also said about his desire to see Russia at the second summit, saying that Russia's presence there would mean that it "wants peace."

But given the complete discrepancy in the positions of the parties regarding how they see the end of the war, it is still very early to talk about any negotiations. These positions may become closer under the influence of two factors-the situation on the battlefield and / or coordinated pressure on both belligerents by their key international partners. And only in the case of such a convergence of positions will real negotiations become possible.

The war will continue until the complete destruction of the Ukrainian forces can no longer be ignored.

Posted by b on June 17, 2024 at 13:06 UTC | Permalink

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The quote I saw and liked

While the vast majority of countries agreed to the document, the representatives of India, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates did not sign it, according to The Associated Press.

And now I am reading that there is hesitancy refreshing the bonds for Ukraine and it may face default......

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 17 2024 13:14 utc | 1

Was is it ever going to be differently?
The intentions of the UK/US have hardly been confidential.
Social/industrial policy through war is all they know and all we will experience until they are replaced

Posted by: Sean | Jun 17 2024 13:16 utc | 2

The war will continue until the complete destruction of the Ukrainian forces can no longer be ignored.

Absolutely but you have to admire the media control - they really are keeping it a secret.

Posted by: Mickey Droy | Jun 17 2024 13:19 utc | 3

I read somewhere that the US plans on Nuking India if there is Nuke exchange with Russia or China. The reasoning was said that the "West" does not want an intact India if the West gets itself bombed back into the stone age.

Posted by: Hot carl | Jun 17 2024 13:21 utc | 4

Putins plan to forever give up kharkhov and odessa wasn't the worst compromise. Those two cities give ukraine a good basis for economic sustainability.

At any rate there's another wave of weapons going to ukraine, enough to culminate in another ukrainian offensive in 2025, possibly with france leading a coalition to secure the rear while every single ukrainian solider is sent east.

At some point some people are going to look back and think hey maybe we should've taken a deal. I mean why do Ukrainians really need to oppress and drive out the Russians? Like why kill and be killed for the chance to be a dick to your neighbor?

I just can't imagine anyone is looking at this and saying we've lead Ukraine to something good. This is all worth it, yup.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 17 2024 13:49 utc | 5

The point I read was an insistence on the “territorial integrity” of Ukraine, including Crimea. You will never have peace when you start with a big lie, the same lie they’ve pushed from the start, that those have always been the borders, Ukraine has existed forever, and the people who live there have always been Ukrainian speaking. The raging hypocrites selectively apply the concepts of human rights and the rights of self determination, thus undermining themselves.

Posted by: Moonraker | Jun 17 2024 13:54 utc | 6

At any rate there's another wave of weapons going to ukraine, enough to culminate in another ukrainian offensive in 2025

LOL, Ukraine won't make it to 2025. Russia will have turned out all the lights by fall.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jun 17 2024 14:06 utc | 7

Indeed.

Volynian nationalists make two traps: on the one hand they use the word "Russians" as a synonym for "Bolsheviks" and "Russia" as a synonym for "USSR"

and on the other hand they use the word "Ukraine" to refer to "Bolshevik Ukraine 1954" and "Volynia-Galicia"

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Galicia%E2%80%93Volhynia

Posted by: Simon | Jun 17 2024 14:08 utc | 8

"basically 6 out of the 12 points"

I don't know what RnaudBertrand wants to say. All points are in Nato's interest and Xi's plan was not approved by Russia. Nato wants to exchange all prisoners simply because they have at least 10x more, wants ZNPP to be given to Ukr so it would send free energy to EU and be used for nuclear dirty things, and free food to be delivered to EU then ships used to transport weapons back to Ukr as it was before. In short, the piss summit was explained by someone who said: Putin has "no right" to ask anything then Meloni said "we'll make Russia surrender" (if they don't do what we say). This circus did not surprise me, including Hungary and Serbia signing it. Russia was not upset though ( tass.com/politics/1804393 ) but I bet they won't forget either.

Posted by: rk | Jun 17 2024 14:12 utc | 9

The Summit was BS anyway. Zelensky has no interest in negotiating any peace deal. He's killing Russians by the tens of thousands, while getting tens of BILLIONS every few months from the West. He wants this gravy train to continue as long as possible.

Posted by: bored | Jun 17 2024 14:19 utc | 10

It would be a service to world peace if someone could come up with a fully credible AI program that could predict defeat ( or victory).

It's been guesswork for the past couple years. Western psychosis about Ukr. "victory" doesn't help. The MoD reports KIA of almost 2K per day. This to the last Ukrainian thing doesn't look much like hyperbole anymore.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 17 2024 14:23 utc | 11

i believe Russia has made it clear.. there is much more to come, if the call to negotiate is ignored.. It took only 2.5 months from Putin's original 2021 call to negotiate over the Ukrainian threat Russian speaking Ukrainians faced before the SMO began. I am expecting something big from Russia within a similar time frame. It could be that China or North Korea will join Russia in Ukraine or it could be that Russia is arming Cuba and other near by satellites with Nuclear weapons? What ever is it, rest assured it will surprise Ukraine side supporters.

Posted by: snake | Jun 17 2024 14:35 utc | 12

Something is rotten in the state of Denmark

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jun 17, 2024, 7:30 AM CDT [Oilprice.com]

Denmark, other Baltic Sea countries, and allies from the European Union are considering ways to limit the volume of Russian oil transported on the so-called dark fleet in the Baltic Sea and the Danish straits, Denmark’s Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen told Reuters on Monday.

Apart from looking to clamp down on Russian shadow fleet activities and Putin’s revenues from oil, Denmark has been concerned that the old and potentially uninsured tankers of the growing dark fleet could cause an environmental disaster in its waters through which Russia’s oil from its Baltic Sea ports passes en route to the Atlantic.

“There is broad consensus that the shadow fleet is an international problem and that international solutions are required,” Lokke Rasmussen told Reuters in an email, without giving details about what the measures under consideration are.
--------------
What other ways to "limit the volume of Russian oil transported through Danish Straits" exist apart from brute force like boarding tankers, as it happened few times to Iranian tankers, and only few because of prompt retaliations? Russia lacks as convenient situation as Iran, their shores do not overlook critical straits, nevertheless, this just means that it would have to use more drastic measures in retaliation. Is sequestering ships an act of war?

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jun 17 2024 14:50 utc | 13

Points 9 & 11: Asking that food security and supply chains be maintained and (not?) be weaponized

Posted by: Elijah | Jun 17 2024 14:52 utc | 14

All of this is a stalling tactic like everything else in ukistan right now. They want to get past the us election so Biden doesn't get the blame for this embarrassment. They know Trump will win and they will pin it all on him.

Posted by: nook | Jun 17 2024 14:54 utc | 15

“The war will continue until the complete destruction of the Ukrainian forces can no longer be ignored.”

Or elimination of Ukrainian people. Whatever comes first. Genocide is the west’s goal.

Posted by: Big Ben | Jun 17 2024 15:00 utc | 16

Russian logistics are more or less at their maximum capacity now. In a year or so this last 500,000 Ukrainian conscripts will be killed but Russia is not going to overextend and take the whole country. In the meantime things are changing politically. I do not have high Hope's for Trump should he be elected but the possibility that he might try to end the war exists. Europe is changing. This might as well be a Frexit for its implications.
My guess would be a largly attrited Ukrainian army in a year with continuing but increasingly sporadic drone and western missiles out of western Ukraine.
In the long term Russia gains air dominance over western Ukraine and that's the end.
The real question is will the west escalate to WMDs? Can Trump really accept that Crimea and the new oblasts are Russian forever? Playing kick the can has consequences both good and bad for the USA. It may be desirable to postponed what will be regarded as losing as long as possible. As long as they are launching a missile or two out of the west they haven't lost so it may continue as a farce.

Posted by: duckncover | Jun 17 2024 15:23 utc | 17

Serbia had to agree with the paper because of said “territorial integrity“ part. Kosovo rings a bell? Un res. 1244 is still kept on hold via nato, so serbia plays lipservice.

Speaking of “territorial integrity“, why dont nato/us lead by example and leave syria or resolve the kosovo issue? It would garner so much goodwill. But i guess they simply cant. Narcissists and all.

The paper clearly mentions the terr.int. of ALL nations.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jun 17 2024 15:23 utc | 18

Which countries didn't sign? I've seen some mentioned, India, South Africa, Mexico, etc. But I've not seen the list of all twelve anywhere.

Does anyone know the full list?

Posted by: team10tim | Jun 17 2024 15:23 utc | 19

thanks b..

i have to agree with @ 2 Mickey Droy | Jun 17 2024 13:19 utc | 3... that and in the case of the canuck idiot trudeau - they have also used it as a propaganda exercise, thinking to continue in the same tried and true fashion they have, in spite of the fact people see thru the lies, more and more..

Posted by: james | Jun 17 2024 15:29 utc | 20

Zelenski serves at the will of Joe Biden.

He is a lawful as any U.S. puppet since they killed Diem in 1963.

Rules based puppetry

Posted by: paddy | Jun 17 2024 15:33 utc | 21

Scott Ritter and Colonel MacGregor have pointed out that the collective West (US and NATO) do not have the capacity to fight a land war with Russia. They also keep saying that somehow the West doesn't understand the situation and so acts foolishly. I suggest that the West understands the situation very well. The West knows it cannot fight a conventional war as it will lose and lose badly. That's why the West is planning a nuclear attack. A face flag event will probably be staged before the American election in November. That's why the recent probe to disable Russia's nuclear early warning radar. It's worth noting what Goering once mentioned: “Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship. The people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.”

Posted by: DenisSaintDenis | Jun 17 2024 15:36 utc | 22

@Justpassinby #18

The paper clearly mentions the terr.int. of ALL nations*

*except China, Russia, Myanmar, Syria, Iraq and anyone else we should decide not to like

Posted by: Billb | Jun 17 2024 15:37 utc | 23

It is very good to see that you have come through your medical ordeal, apparently the better for it. Your analysis was sorely missed. Glad to see you back at it.

Posted by: rgl | Jun 17 2024 15:38 utc | 24

In reality, Putin's plan would have been unacceptable to the Russian public...But he knew it wouldn't be accepted..Russia must have complete control of the Black Sea, and the Ukraine must be reduced to a small, neutral and de-militarized country with a government approved by the Russians--other wise, there will eventually be further trouble....

Posted by: pyrrhus | Jun 17 2024 15:42 utc | 25

"Zelenski's Summit Has Failed"

In further news. Sun rises in the East. Also dog bites man.

Posted by: lester | Jun 17 2024 15:45 utc | 26

"Zelenski serves at the will of Joe Biden.
He is a lawful as any U.S. puppet since they killed Diem in 1963.
Rules based puppetry

Posted by: paddy | Jun 17 2024 15:33 utc | 21"

And Biden serves at the swill of many masters.

Expressions or Amusements from the Carnival?
1. Child Trudeau shouting "Slava Ukraine" at a photo op. Later claiming Russia is capturing Ukrainian children. Jealous, of course, for the sexually confused Trudeau.
2. El Duce Meloni threatening Russia with surrender, with the tenacity and might of the North African Army that supported the weak Germans in the desert war.
3. Finland and Estonia lamenting that Adolf lost WWII, and how wondrous it might have been that the Soviets had only lost more, especially during the Finish blockade at St. Petersburg.

Posted by: kupkee | Jun 17 2024 15:47 utc | 27

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 17 2024 13:49 utc | 5

Putins plan to forever give up kharkhov and odessa wasn't the worst compromise. Those two cities give ukraine a good basis for economic sustainability.

At any rate there's another wave of weapons going to ukraine, enough to culminate in another ukrainian offensive in 2025, possibly with france leading a coalition to secure the rear while every single ukrainian solider is sent east.

I believe Putin's strategy isn't to conquer and occupy cities like Odessa and Kharkov but to come to a political solution in which those cities are under the influence of Russia without Russia having to take responsibility for their security and welfare.

Back I think in 2015 both Donbas oblasts asked to join Russia and Russia refused ... the Russians don't want the liability and who can blame them.

Accepting their plea to join Russia in 2022 was a response to the buildup of a NATO trained Ukrainian force of 60,000 that was preparing to go on the offensive in the Donbas. Accepting them as part of Russia solved the constitutional problem of using Russian military forces to invade another nation.

I'm not sure exactly why Zaporizhzhia and Lugansk were added to the list (I don't get invited to Russian staff meetings) but I suspect it was because the Russians needed those oblasts as a buffer to secure Crimea.

The only geostrategic reason I can think of to take Odessa is to keep NATO out ... if they can do that without excessive violence and expense (ie by negotiation) all the better.

Taking Kharkov is only necessary if the Russians need the width to to reach the Dnieper without exposing their flanks from being pinched in 2 directions.

If both sides can agree that kharkov and Odessa is NATO free and the people are free to live in Russian and trade with Russia then there's no need for Russians to die or police these cities.

I mean why do Ukrainians really need to oppress and drive out the Russians? Like why kill and be killed for the chance to be a dick to your neighbor?

It's the roughest neighborhood on the planet and has been so for thousands of years. It doesn't help that NATO has been kicking the hornets nest at every turn.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 17 2024 15:50 utc | 28

Of course the thing that was discussed at the Summit was - Who is going to pay for all this? The idea may have been that all the "participants" would sign and then be approached by a sort of Garden Gnome dressed in green with his arms outstretched. However, the non-signers were mainly all countries east of Ukraine (Saudi to China and all stops in between) and are not going to pay, and the signers have already given arms in quantity (which were supposed to be replaced by the US) and more.

The US and Germany left early to avoid coughing up.
The "estimate" by the Telegraph is of £800 billion (over $1'000 billion US) being needed. I am not sure if this is just this years' downpayment or is supposed to cover the four more years (or whatever it takes) that Zelebaby anticipates being in future employment.

The Corporations want their pound(s) of flesh and the Nations such as Poland (who have supplied troops and arms a gogo) want to see something in return for their largesse.

You think that National Defense budgets are going to fulfill the dreams of Stoltenberg, Ursula or others who promise money they don't have? (at about 50 or 100 billion € each time).

Zele has either sold or promised all the moveable and immovable assets, land and income to Blackrock, Vanguard, Cargill the IMF and uncle Tom Cobbley an'all.

Maybe they thought they were going to divvy up the €300 billion they owe the Russians? The US has laid "claim" to €50 billion of that, pretending it is interest, and Yellen, or anybody, can lay claim to that for their individual arms industries.

So who pays?

PS. Don't just say the taxpayer, like me, who is already overtaxed. It will have to come out of some declared Budgets- no?

Posted by: Stonebird | Jun 17 2024 16:04 utc | 29

Zaporozhye has the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. Its contents can be used to make dirty bombs, and Zelensky has publicly stated a desire to acquire nuclear weapons. Russia needs to continue to hold onto Zaporozhye.

Posted by: Lysias | Jun 17 2024 16:16 utc | 30

The longer all these conflicts go on the more it look like they have evolved into some kind of chicken and pea circuit - the so-called world leaaders trekking from one hitone venue to another, sitting through thousands of words about nothing, and at the end of the day tucking into a good dinner. Peace conferences, NATO summits, EU summits, G-7 meetings, BRICS, I can´t keep track of them all. Zelinsky must bbe putting on weight after gate crashing so many.

Finally, in reference to ¨The war will continue until the complete destruction of the Ukrainian forces can no longer be ignored¨, I am afraid that it will go on longer than that. The world needs a regime change in the US.

Posted by: c | Jun 17 2024 16:24 utc | 31

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 17 2024 13:49 utc | 5

I doubt Ukraine will have the manpower left to do a general counteroffensive across a broad area by 2025. They’re currently limited to having to pick their battles, as in a local counteroffensive only. Kharkiv will probably exhaust their Human Resources by August. Russia has already taken advantage by making steady gains in the south and along the Kupiansk area. Along with the Kherson front where stupid UAF games in Krinki resulted in them winning stupid prizes (one way trips to see Satan with no territorial gain to show for it.)

Plus the remaining weapons are being burned up. Unless some NATO countries besides France are willing to put their own citizens lives on the line, the UAF is done as an offensive force. It’s defense only.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 17 2024 16:27 utc | 32

I think one needs to distinguish between the Banderite Ukrainian, the modern day descendants of the ones who fought for Nazi Germany and killed Ukrainians, Poles, Russians and Jews, and other Ukrainians who want to live in peace with all countries.

Posted by: Bill R | Jun 17 2024 16:29 utc | 33

Re: ukrainian offensive 2025

Casualty numbers on both sides are highly overstated. Actual attacks involves maybe a couple hundred people combined both sides, sometimes up to a thousand occasionally. Digging in dramatically reduces casualties and static lines indicate a lot of digging in.

By my estimate ukraine has up to 700000 men like Russia. By pulling all troops east opens the possibility of a 2025 offensive.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 17 2024 16:31 utc | 34

Re Dennistdenniss nuclear war
I think it's a possibility. As Ritter has stated the plan is to hit all industrial societies so even crippled the USA is dominant. It's hard to imagine this sort of thinking as reality but it may be true.
The attacks on the early radar had nothing to do with capabilities for the Ukraine war. It was justified in the western press as destroying capability of yo intercept western missiles. We know these attacks largly are with the satellite reconnaissance of the west.
If a nuclear attack is being planned this is what one would expect. Destroying early warning assets and mapping defenses. The drone and missile attacks might well be air defense mapping.
Technically under Russian nuclear doctrine the attacks in early warning radar constitute grounds for a nuclear response. If Russia thinks it's getting set up they very well decide to get the first punch in.
The other issue is if things are getting desperate biological weapons might be released. I think it's fairly reasonable to assume the russoans will do so. Russia will be pasted. Europe will be paired. USA will be badly hurt but not pasted. It was the Soviets plan to follow nuclear strikes on the USA with biological weapons. Payback.
The Russia Chinese alliance spells the end for the USA dominance. It's just a matter of time. We find out now to what extent they are willing to keep that dominance.
All this was known. The intelligence agencies knew how the dominoes would fall if they messed with Ukraine. William burns "net means nyet" it looks like Yanukovich was going to negotiate a EU Ukraine Russia trilateral trade agreement and that was unthinkable. They reacted with the Maidan Couu full well knowing it was a bad bet. Now it's like a succession of bad bets with the gambler trying to win it all back.
Frankly it could all be theater. The net result we see is dramatic standard of living decreases for the USA and Europe.
This is perfectly aligned with the WEF crowd. Ironically if true this might well be the best hope that nuclear war is not considered a viable option. We will find out soon

Posted by: duckncover | Jun 17 2024 16:33 utc | 35

Posted by: Bill R | Jun 17 2024 16:29 utc | 33

Try explaining to someone in the eu that current ukraina has parts of russia, and that there are russian ukrainians.
Nobody here aknowledges those people at all! For the eu, the only ukrainians are those of galiccian or volyn descent. Thats the sickening part. Education is not part of the eu values.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jun 17 2024 16:34 utc | 36

no, the war will continue afterwards
there will be a government in exile and Free Ukraine Forces trained by Americans in El Salvador or something.
the grift will continue for decades

Posted by: Manage without me | Jun 17 2024 16:37 utc | 37

@Bill R

My grandfather considered himself Polish, spoke Polish as a first language, fought for the Austrians in WW1 because it was sovereign over the area he was born, as a Polish hussar, but was born in what is now Ukraine.

Posted by: Manage without me | Jun 17 2024 16:39 utc | 38

Scott Ritter and Col. MacGregor also point out that the F16s which are supposed to be so scary are in fact nearly useless without functioning airbases and protection - which 404 doesn't really have. So, it's all hot air. Just trying to get Bribem and Co. past the election. Interesting that Musk is outing the hackability of Dominion "voting" machines just at this time. Of course, his news is not really news. People have known at least since 2006 that Dominion machines are, and have been hacked. Just ask Greg Palast.

Posted by: Formerly Miss Lacy | Jun 17 2024 16:40 utc | 39

As the Russian meat grinder chews through 60,000+ Ukrainian soldiers a month, plus around 750+ artillery pieces etc., the West faces the Ukrainian fighting-age male refugee rubicon. How can any Western nation deal with body bags coming home from Ukraine, or even just deeper state social spending cuts, without forcing these men to go fight for their country rather than attend Euro 2024 matches? The possibility for anti-Ukrainian pogroms spreading across Europe is very real if the Ukrainian war continues and European elites drag their nations in deeper and deeper.

If the European states cross that rubicon, a breaking of both international and national laws and risking significant social unrest (even 100,000 young men can cause an awful lot of resistance), then we can see that as a significant data point toward their escalatory lunacy. There are between 600,000 and 850,000 Ukrainian men in Europe, 100,000s may be of the single, childless variety; the most easily sent back.

I cover this issue in my piece Will Europe Send The Ukrainian Men Back To Fight?

Posted by: Roger | Jun 17 2024 16:40 utc | 40

Of course the thing that was discussed at the Summit was - Who is going to pay for all this?

Posted by: Stonebird | Jun 17 2024 16:04 utc | 29

If the Russians win this I can tell you for sure it's going to be China rebuilding at least the Russian occupied parts of Ukraine. The Donbas is extremely rich in natural resources and China's economic strategy is to control supply chains of the products they build rather than just the finished products. They have a trade surplus of $2b/day and for 30 years they've been investing in mines, ore refineries, railroads and shipping lines to the point now where there is very little you can build without input from a Chinese company.

All those destroyed mines, refineries and factories the Russians are destroying is just making the Chinese job of modernizing them easier. The Chinese aren't winning this economic war ... they've won and we just aren't being told.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 17 2024 16:42 utc | 41

Zaporozhye has the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. Its contents can be used to make dirty bombs, and Zelensky has publicly stated a desire to acquire nuclear weapons. Russia needs to continue to hold onto Zaporozhye.

Posted by: Lysias | Jun 17 2024 16:16 utc | 30

Nope. Ukraine has dozens of commercial nuclear reactors already and the Zaporozhye NPP doesn't produce weapons grade materials ... they just want Zaporozhia because the Russians have it.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 17 2024 16:47 utc | 42

@Neofuedal future -It’s difficult for me to believe they have those kind of numbers left. Plus you have to factor in 30k/month in losses which means 300k fewer by April 2025 end of month.

Either way we can agree to disagree.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 17 2024 16:50 utc | 43

The f16s could be part of a preemptive nuclear strike plan. A excuse to collect a strike force. They will be piloted under contract of course. I dont think the flocks of f35 Europe has ordered will materialize no time. Russia and China are ramping and will exceed the west in weapons manufacture from here on out. The f16s might be empty symbols like the Abrams also but not neccesarily. As Lavrov noted they can deliver nuclear weapons with standardized modifications. I think they can deliver the b61 dial a yield and there are lots of those old dinosaurs about.

Posted by: duckncover | Jun 17 2024 17:02 utc | 44

Is sequestering ships an act of war?

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jun 17 2024 14:50 utc | 13

It can be. International maritime law allows the forces of any recognized government to stop, board, and inspect any vessel on the high seas. However, those forces are not allowed to confiscate goods, including arms and drugs, arrest mariners, or take possession of the vessel without authority delegated for that specific incident by the flag state of the vessel boarded.

Posted by: Ciaran | Jun 17 2024 17:14 utc | 45

Posted by: Formerly Miss Lacy | Jun 17 2024 16:40 utc | 39

Diebold machines 2000' such a bad rep they went to Dominion, new and improved donchaknow.

Posted by: jopalolive | Jun 17 2024 17:24 utc | 46

Military Summary mentioned that the UKrain is using something called the GBU-39, a large guided bomb that has been damaging Russ front lines.
It may explain the recent flurry of Russ targeting of UKrain airbases and hunting down of the (few) fighter jets.
Anyways, the F-16 will supposedly be able to use the GBU-39 (US produced?) and if so the extra war craft, and by extension the bombing of front lines, will extend the war a few more months.

Posted by: jopalolive | Jun 17 2024 17:38 utc | 47

Todo marcha según lo planificado, la guerra es la única propuesta...

https://textosandroides.blogspot.com/2024/06/guerra-mundial.html

Posted by: Santi | Jun 17 2024 17:39 utc | 48

I was particularly taken by a quote from The Telegraph article (the UK's most virulent media outlet for peak Russophobia & general WWIII warpiggery) from 'cold war academic' Sergey Radchenko, a Soviet born author of a recent book with the comedic title 'To Run the World: The Kremlin's Cold War Bid for Global Power'. Commenting on the outcome of the 'peace summit' (more accurately a 'summit in pieces') he has this to say:

"Drumming up support for Kyiv makes a lot of sense, and in the sense that the summit contributes to European resolve to keep Ukraine well-supplied with weapons, it is a step towards peace.”

There we have it, the essence of Western derangement where the realpolitik of a 'global summit' valorises before our eyes, leaving a purely abstract word salad with zero reference to any route that doesn't involve industrial slaughter. A transformation of Orwell's 'War is Peace' from a dystopian slogan to the West's singular idea of conflict resolution.

Posted by: FakeBelieve | Jun 17 2024 17:45 utc | 49

HB_Norica | Jun 17 2024 16:42 utc | 41

Interesting, I hadn't thought of China. I know that the US firms are trying to factor in how much they would make IF they had the chance. They are greedy enough to try to get the contracts even if (and when) Ukraine is "finished". There are no small profits for them.

Posted by: Stonebird | Jun 17 2024 17:59 utc | 50

To make a dirty bomb, all that you need is radioactive material plus an explosive, which can be a conventional explosive. The radioactive material does not have to be weapons-grade.

Posted by: Lysias | Jun 17 2024 18:06 utc | 51

This summit meant nothing as The West gave up diplomacy.
The West is not afraid of war and felt no pain yet.
So, the escalation is sure as, thanks to Putin, nobody fears Russia any more.
Look at countries like Serbia, Russian friends, now selling weapons to Ukraine.

Posted by: vargas | Jun 17 2024 18:08 utc | 52

Putin extends defence ministry purge, hands job to a relative
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/putin-extends-defence-ministry-purge%2c-hands-job-to-a-relative/80960567

In the latest changes, Putin sacked deputy defence ministers Nikolai Pankov, Ruslan Tsalikov, Tatiana Shevtsova and Pavel Popov, according to Kremlin decrees.

He appointed Anna Tsivileva, the daughter of his late cousin, as a deputy defence minister whose responsibilities will include improving social and housing support for military personnel.

In the latest changes, Putin sacked deputy defence ministers Nikolai Pankov, Ruslan Tsalikov, Tatiana Shevtsova and Pavel Popov, according to Kremlin decrees.

He appointed Anna Tsivileva, the daughter of his late cousin, as a deputy defence minister whose responsibilities will include improving social and housing support for military personnel.

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Jun 17 2024 18:33 utc | 53

Not counting Russian-occupied Zaporozhye and decommissioned Chernobyl, Ukraine has three nuclear power plants: Rovno, Khmelnytsky, and South Ukraine (Pivdennoukrainsk).

Posted by: Lysias | Jun 17 2024 18:36 utc | 54

The plan for the f16s seems to be a slow approach where airbases are tried to be utilized a few aircraft while the majority of the air craft are stored across the border. The aircraft depot across the border of course is a tempting target for the Russians. The Ukrainians have 20 plus airbases that can accommodate the f16s. There is going to be a learning curve. The gbu39 has proved resilient to jamming unlike the jdam.it will not be liked by the Russian troops.the Ukrainians get to face the FANs every day now in the present.

The Russians wont hit the aircraft parked outside of Ukraine. They can handle the resource drain of the conflict within Ukraine. None the less the f16s represent a sizable amount of nuclear capable aircraft "parked" on Russias border. Who knows maybe none will enter ukraine.

In this environment the possibility of mistaking a lot of aircraft in the air as a nuclear attack is a very real risk.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/10/ukraine-to-seek-secure-parking-for-f-16s-abroad

Posted by: duckncover | Jun 17 2024 18:44 utc | 55

team10tim | Jun 17 2024 15:23 utc | 19

"Which countries didn't sign? I've seen some mentioned, India, South Africa, Mexico, etc. But I've not seen the list of all twelve anywhere."

According to this, the countries that were at the summit but didn't sign are:
- Armenia (3,000,000 people)
- Bahrain (1,500,000 people)
- Brazil (205,000,000 people)
- United Arab Emirates (9,300,000 people)
- India (1,428,000,000 people)
- Indonesia (279,000,000 people)
- Saudi Arabia (32,000,000 people)
- South Africa (62,000,000 people)

That's 8. Don't know, but are you sure Mexico was even there?
Cheers!

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Jun 17 2024 19:05 utc | 56

Strange days have found us.

Rod Stewart was booed at a concert in Leipzig last night when he displayed a Ukrainian flag and an image of Zelensky on the screen.

Posted by: M Boyd | Jun 17 2024 19:06 utc | 57

@ Scotch Bingeington | Jun 17 2024 19:05 utc | 56

The signatures of Iraq and Jordan are now missing according to a report..

Posted by: james | Jun 17 2024 19:18 utc | 58

Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić gave an interview recently in which he explained that in regards to the collision course between the West and Russia: "the train has left the station and no one can stop it".
He basically says that the confrontation is existential for both sides. For the West because it's hegemony and influence would deteriorate to such an extend that it will implode and for Russia because it would disintegrate. That last part was also declared at the piss summit in Switzerland where Polish president Duda openly advocated breaking-up Russia into 200 ethnic states euphemistically calling it decolonization.

The threshold for the use of nuclear weapons by the United States is certainly a lot lower than that of Russia. Russia has been attacked on multiple occasions on it's territory. Western countries are open about it that they will continue doing it using their weapons (with Ukrainians pushing a button).

Although he doesn't want to call it WWIII Vučić says we "are not more than three to four months" away from it "and there's a danger to happen it before that".

A couple of days ago Russia announced it activated it's latest S-500 on Crimea which would be beneficial in case it performs a first strike. The current Western misleadership doesn't back down but doubles down. Whenever there was a military break through on the Ukrainian battlefield, the West escalated (think of the Moskva that was sunk after Mariapol fell). If there's a military break through in Chassov Yar, Volchansk or any other front of significance it will be followed by another escalation which most likely will provoke an unseen response.

I think the war will not only continue but evolve beyond Ukraine.

Posted by: xor | Jun 17 2024 19:24 utc | 59

james | Jun 17 2024 19:18 utc | 58

Thanks James!

So with Iraq (46,000,000 people) and Jordan (11,000,000 people) that's 10 countries who thought better of it. What a huge success for Zelensky!

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Jun 17 2024 19:38 utc | 60

The actors at the piss summit showed their unity as fools marinating in a common delusion of Western superiority, which is really all they've got. The feigned moral outrage, the posturing as taking a 'principled' stand, all an act of desperation. When an entire foreign policy is based on a fantasy, there's no possibility of a plan B, or any escape route. The only hope is that the public starts to recognize these clowns for what they are, and stop being willing participants in their suicidal fantasies. The thought that these people are the so-called leaders of the western world makes me sick.

Posted by: Mike R | Jun 17 2024 20:05 utc | 61

Let's suppose Biden loses the November elections. The new US presidents opens the Ukraine file, and becomes familiar with the Biden legacy.
What would a realistic worst case scenario be?

Posted by: Passerby | Jun 17 2024 20:07 utc | 62

Vucic is very pessimistic in the interview clip mentioned above. Why does he hammer on the "three four months" before things get really out of hand? Is this the term of the full scale introduction of the F16 he is hinting at? He describes how western leaders play the heroes but do not tell their populations how many (hundreds of) thousands they will have to sacrifice. Is he thinking of an inevitable nuclear escalation?

Posted by: Teraspol | Jun 17 2024 20:25 utc | 63

As promised, I've tackled Crooke's SCF essay and Pepe Escobar's BRICS/Palestine essay, while also linking to the Napolitano/Crooke chat that happened this morning, and combined it into one article, ""European Mutiny?" Arab Solidarity? "Illiberalism" Monday with Crooke and Escobar".

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 17 2024 20:36 utc | 64

M Boyd | Jun 17 2024 19:06 utc | 57--

Sad. Clearly solidarity with a fellow coke-head.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 17 2024 20:38 utc | 65

M Boyd @ 57

Just ruined his music for me, too bad the early stuff was great. Now when I hear Maggie May I'll barf.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 17 2024 20:41 utc | 66

I doubt this is true but here it is:

The Houthis claim to have shot down an American Lockheed Martin F-22 stealth fighter in Hodeidah. We are waiting for confirmation.

If this is confirmed, it is quite clear that Vladimir Putin has already fulfilled his promise to transfer modern weapons to the enemies of the United States. Although, this was already assumed when the Houthis shot down American drones and accurately hit American warships.

https://t.me/ZandVchannel/117386

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 17 2024 20:45 utc | 67

Why does he hammer on the "three four months" before things get really out of hand?

Posted by: Teraspol | Jun 17 2024 20:25 utc | 63

---

There is a natural economic compression that occurs around harvest time as the days get shorter.

A few notable examples.

September 24, 1869, Black Friday.
October 24, 1929, Black Thursday.
September 1, 1939 Germany invades Poland.
October 19, 1987, Black Monday.
September 11, 2001.
September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers.

After August the harvest comes in.

Posted by: too scents | Jun 17 2024 20:46 utc | 68

It shouldn't be forgotten that a fair part of the origins of this situation lie in efforts by Ukrainian oligarchs and Western opportunists to seize economic control of Donbas heavy industry, gas pipeline rights, control of agribusiness property, etc. The outbreak of conflict and the formation of the break-away republics was a response to a classic land grab + ethnic cleansing combo. Azov etc was formed out of neo-nazi goons hired by Kolomoisky and his ilk, while Biden's family was up to its neck in a process of western looting that had been carried on since 1991. The part played by Banderites was entangled with this, but also distinct too, as the west fanned internal civil division as a way to keep Ukraine both weak politically but also kept in reserve as a potential provocateur against Russia. Yanukovych, whose support was in the east, posed the spectre of Ukraine's reintegration in an old USSR (at least economically), and this would have spelled disaster for the Ukraine gravy-train enjoyed by predatory capitalism. His eviction and the subsequent formation of Donetsk/Luhansk republics became a real problem, making the Donbas inaccessible. Given the fact that the Ukrainian state was never allowed to develop a proper civil society, its corruption and hollowed out institutions became a liability made embarrassingly obvious when the AFU could not force reintegration. The decision to begin Sarajevo-style ethnic war must have been taken by interested oligarchs (Kolomoisky) and western stakeholders (represented by Nuland et al.) who backed a theatrical troupe into the presidency. The international media hit-squad almost pulled off a massive de-legitimization of Donetsk/Luhansk resistance (MH17) until it could no longer be concealed that the Ukrainian government was responsible for over 14,000 deaths of ostensibly their own citizens.

My point here is that this war was, and is, motivated by the predatory practices typical of historical capitalism: resource plunder, client state cronyism, repression of local populations resisting land theft and so on. What the west did not reckon on was the fact that the ethnic Russian population of Donbas were some of the most politicised in the USSR and did not take this lying down. Coupled with an almost caricatured western misunderstanding of Russian resolve and capacity, and a catastrophic underestimation of Russian culture and politics, the Conquista 2.0 (systematised looting of central Eurasia) was halted. This makes the conflict historically very significant, and the failure of the west an epochal moment. Russia will not stop until Ukraine is completely neutralised. I suspect there are a lot of people in the west (i.e., most of them) yet to understand the implications of this.

Posted by: Patroklos | Jun 17 2024 20:46 utc | 69

The longer the war goes on the more people catch on and resistance builds and action starts. Expect NATO to rush the ugliness.

Posters "Russia is not my enemy" in Italy.

https://t.me/ZandVchannel/117381

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 17 2024 20:49 utc | 70

Casualty numbers on both sides are highly overstated.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 17 2024 16:31 utc | 34

Well, the numbers are in for RF excess mortality for april, 1200 raw (against 900 raw in january) , KIA as usual estimate 2400 in april against 1500 in march.

Posted by: Newbie | Jun 17 2024 20:49 utc | 71

Posted by: rk | Jun 17 2024 14:12 utc | 9 "Nato wants to exchange all prisoners simply because they have at least 10x more"

Not according to Putin. He said it is about 4 to 1.

"There are 1,348 of our soldiers and officers held by the Ukrainian side. I know the exact numbers because we work with them every day. As you know, there was an exchange just recently: 75 people were exchanged for 75 people. We have 6,465 Ukrainian soldiers."

Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 17 2024 20:56 utc | 72

Posted by: Newbie | Jun 17 2024 20:49 utc | 71

Putin said that Russia loses about 10,000 a month. But that is "irretrievable losses". Mediazona documents about 3,000 a month as KIA.

I am not sure how that fits in with your calculation using excess mortality.

Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 17 2024 21:00 utc | 73

@ LightYearsFromHome | Jun 17 2024 20:41 utc | 66

maybe rod wanted to get some more attention, as roger waters has for the opposite positions.. the brits are interesting critters, lol.. i watched an interview with eric clapton a week or so ago and it was clear he identified strongly with russias position.. so - for every yoyo like rod, there are a few others who see it more as i do..

Posted by: james | Jun 17 2024 21:01 utc | 74

@Teraspol | Jun 17 2024 20:25 utc | 63

Yes, conventionally, Russia is outmatched by the West.

Posted by: xor | Jun 17 2024 21:02 utc | 75

Why would the US have used a manned F22 rather than a drone?

Posted by: Lysias | Jun 17 2024 21:35 utc | 76

"The war will continue until the complete destruction of the Ukrainian forces can no longer be ignored."

Given that the fighting is still parked in the Donbass for almost 2.5 years, it seems it will be ignored for years more.
Russia just can't seem to bring the war up to the necessary gear. For an existential war, it is lacking in strength.

Posted by: MiniMO | Jun 17 2024 21:39 utc | 77

Here is RT's most cogent summary of the Swiss fiasco. Basically says all that needs to be said!

Https://www.rt.com/russia/599447-historic-zelenskys-peace-summit/

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Jun 17 2024 21:48 utc | 78

Posted by: Newbie | Jun 17 2024 20:49 utc | 71

Putin said that Russia loses about 10,000 a month. But that is "irretrievable losses". Mediazona documents about 3,000 a month as KIA.

I am not sure how that fits in with your calculation using excess mortality.

Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 17 2024 21:00 utc | 73

Less, Medizaona on standard web tracing finds less than that (the pseudo probate is being used to prop up but for along while has been non compatible with corrected excess mortality).

Typical irrecoverable WIA to KIA is 1 (recoverable within 2 months WIA are typically 2/3 of total casualties).

October to April (6 months) RF had no less than 18.000 and no more than 25.000 KIA (irretrievable losses 6.000 to 8.000per month, maybe 40.000 total)

AFU I would say 250.000 to 350.000, maybe 300.000 irretrievable losses on the down side... Considering that they also increased by 100.000 their stock in hospitals (recovering), I'd say they need 400.000 to cover their loses in these 6 months... I doubt they can get them easily

Posted by: Newbie | Jun 17 2024 21:49 utc | 79

He basically says that the confrontation is existential for both sides. For the West because it's hegemony and influence would deteriorate to such an extend that it will implode

Posted by: xor | Jun 17 2024 19:24 utc | 59

Thats correct, russia played the uno reverse card on the west.
And unlike what vargas whines all the time, this also shows that the west is not “not afraid of putin“, but exactly the opposite, they are completely afraid because the gas station is taking away their dominance.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jun 17 2024 22:00 utc | 80

Posted by: Newbie | Jun 17 2024 21:49 utc | 79 "October to April (6 months) RF had no less than 18.000 and no more than 25.000 KIA (irretrievable losses 6.000 to 8.000per month, maybe 40.000 total)"

Multiply whatever you came up with for Russian by about 5 to come up with the same category for Ukrainian losses. So if 18k to 25k would be then Ukraine's number would be 90k to 125k KIA for the same 6 month period. Putin's words: "one to about five"

"maybe 40000 total" would translate into 200,000 for Ukraine.

I believe that makes your numbers high.

Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 17 2024 23:58 utc | 81

Putins plan to forever give up kharkhov and odessa wasn't the worst compromise. Those two cities give ukraine a good basis for economic sustainability.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 17 2024 13:49 utc | 5

Putin always knew that his plan will not be accepted by the ukronazis and their supporters. So that there is no forever plan to give up the Russian cities, but a PR plan directed at the rest of the world to show who does not want peace. When you know that the enemy is stupid, it is quite useful and clever to propose something they will not accept out of their stupidity.

Posted by: Naive | Jun 18 2024 0:08 utc | 82

@47 jopalolive

As bombas GBU-39 tem 110 kg, portanto seus estragos não devem ser comparáveis às das bombas planadoras russas.

Posted by: Soviético | Jun 18 2024 0:15 utc | 83

Vučić : "the train has left the station and no one can stop it".
@xor

i believe this is a reference to the unstoppable chain of events precipitated at the beginning of world war one.

(usually identified as the assassination of duke of ferdinand).

like chains of dominoes falling, all the involved are locked in to preplanned actions and reactions etc.

a gloomy view, and i don't know what he knows.

sidenote, it was Kissinger's thesis material as a student, the century-ish long relative peace in europe between napoleon and ww1

Posted by: Father Dougal | Jun 18 2024 0:20 utc | 84

@Patroklos
the EU economic treaty that yanukovic rejected, and that maidan accepted - i read it back then - more or less involved the shutting down and scrapping of the remaining industry that still sold to russia. This notably included marine diesel engines from nikolaiev for the navy, helicopter engines from lugansk, the antonov heavy transport airplanes, and whatever remained of the rocket missile and space program.

this in addition to the then-upcoming renewal of the russian navy leases of the ports bases etc at sevastopol and so on.

changing the laws about foreign ownership of farmland was part of this too iirc.

Posted by: Father Dougal | Jun 18 2024 0:28 utc | 85

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jun 17 2024 15:23 utc | 18

What about the occupation of the Golan heights, Cisjordania, southern Lebanon, etc. Israel is among the countries which signed. Obviously they do not care.

Posted by: Naive | Jun 18 2024 0:28 utc | 86

Let's suppose Biden loses the November elections.

Posted by: Passerby | Jun 17 2024 20:07 utc | 62

Let's suppose he will not be anymore candidate...

I am waiting with impatience the first debate with Trump. His Alzheimer disease is progressing, it is going worse almost every day and there is no cure.

Just before or after the first debate, Trump should ask for a blood analysis of his opponent.

Posted by: Naive | Jun 18 2024 0:37 utc | 87

Alex from BMA, who l usually take at face value, made a great call in his latest substack article.
He equates Israel as the US and vice versa.
Lightyearsfromhome post earlier about Ansullah taking out destroyers & F22
(possibly a hit on USS Ike too) is returned serve by the anti empire coalition.
Now, which other countries have illegally occupied territories, Syria....?

Posted by: Suresh | Jun 18 2024 0:49 utc | 88

If Russia promises to nuke Israel in the event of a nuclear exchange with the US, then there will be no nuclear exchange between the U.S. and Russia.

Posted by: Sentient | Jun 18 2024 1:27 utc | 89

Meanwhile Hezbollah affiliated MP from Lebanon, Ibrahim Moussawi trolls Isreal. "If they want to come to Lebanon, they are welcome. We are waiting for them." - The Cradle

Posted by: Suresh | Jun 18 2024 2:05 utc | 90

This Atlantacist Fantasist Conference adds more corpses to the avalanche of death Boris Johnson started at the beginning of the war by preventing Zelensky from negotiating with Russia.

He has , and Biden will , conveniently be absent by the time the original Russian demands are eventually complied with and agreed to. What the corpses will have achieved is a new , world consensus on the malign influence of Atlantacist Fascist Fantasies, which , coupled with the Israeli Genocide of Palestine, will poison their image forever.

Sunak , by calling an instant election , has disenfranchised all summer holidaymakers. The postal votes will not arrive in time for voters to use them. So.much for living in a digital age, but who cares? They're going to print their Banana Republic on a 3D printer.
Another five years of Tory chaos and war.

Posted by: Giyane | Jun 18 2024 2:18 utc | 91

I just can't imagine anyone is looking at this and saying we've lead Ukraine to something good. This is all worth it, yup.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 17 2024 13:49 utc | 5
===============

"led," not "lead."

Posted by: Jane | Jun 18 2024 2:21 utc | 92

This peace plan and Putin's peace plan amount to nothing. When it is all said and done, Russia will have Odessa, Transnistria, Mykolaev and the cities of Zaporozhye and Kherson and more. We will be Russians, thank fuck for that, and the west will dissolve into nothingness, hoorah!

Posted by: bluedog | Jun 18 2024 2:31 utc | 93

Sentient 89

If it looks like a turd, smells like a turd, and attracts flies like a turd, then nuking it will only spread its turd molecules even further than they have already spread.

Putin has sensibly avoided nuking Israel so far. Nuclear winter is one thing; turd winter another.

Posted by: Giyane | Jun 18 2024 2:31 utc | 94

94

The only survivors will be flies.

Posted by: Giyane | Jun 18 2024 2:41 utc | 95

The Eisenhower aircraft carrier was badly damaged by the Houthis.
It had to be towed to the Saudi coast and it's entire crew disembarked.
The US confirmed this indirectly by extending it's tour by another month so the exterior damage can be repaired before sailing back through the Suez Canal.
The carrier is currently trapped in the Red Sea.
Further the ship has gone totally silent.

The aircraft carrier suffered at least two hits above deck and one perpendicular hit below the flight deck.
The damage prevented launching any aircraft.
Likely many parked aircraft were lost to fire and likely pushed overboard.
It would be hard to belive there were no serious casualties.

Shortly afterwards, Biden clarified US missiles could only just cross the Russian border.

Posted by: Blind Bridge Troll | Jun 18 2024 2:54 utc | 96

Putins plan to forever give up kharkhov and odessa wasn't the worst compromise. Those two cities give ukraine a good basis for economic sustainability.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 17 2024 13:49 utc | 5

Putin always knew that his plan will not be accepted by the ukronazis and their supporters. So that there is no forever plan to give up the Russian cities, but a PR plan directed at the rest of the world to show who does not want peace. When you know that the enemy is stupid, it is quite useful and clever to propose something they will not accept out of their stupidity.

Posted by: Naive | Jun 18 2024 0:08 utc | 82

**************
At the same time, that Putin has made this offer gives those cities, (in a similar way Jerusalem is potentially given,) a complex mixture of acceptable multipolarity even if they too will be eventually part of the Russian Federation. They, like Kiev can be examples of harmony between the separate civilian sides in this conflict -- a harmony which was being emphasized by Russia as it began, but that has yet to be visibly accomplished.

Posted by: juliania | Jun 18 2024 3:36 utc | 97

I read somewhere that the US plans on Nuking India if there is Nuke exchange with Russia or China. The reasoning was said that the "West" does not want an intact India if the West gets itself bombed back into the stone age.
Posted by: Hot carl | Jun 17 2024 13:21 utc | 4

Unless one is a committed "partner" of the US, any nuke exchange will not be limited to a single adversary. The US will try ensure that when the dust settles, they remain the worlds dominant force. That means launches against China, India etc. even if they are not directly or indirectly involved. The planet will be roasted.

Posted by: RTSinPV | Jun 18 2024 3:41 utc | 98

I cant help but wonder if Biden was selected to launch the nuclear strike. While obama was at least as bad as his predecessor Libya, Syria, Ukraine he possessed considerable wit and humor. Why not just find another rock star to run against the old geezet Trump? Hell if they had done that every one would have believed the election results.
I've wondered this from the first day. When it comes down to it what human no matter how radical their beliefs is going to push the button?
Biden displays the anger typical of dementia and directs it at Putin like a "dog faced pony soldier". He is not competancy to clean a McDonald milk shake machine and everyone knows it. So why?
As dementia sets in the personality traits from earlier in life become accented and a function of emotions not logic. We see this in Biden narcacism, threats "no one messes with a biden" all the traits that made him successful as a politician but now without cunning a empty emotional basis.
The look in his eyes when he says "Putin must not win" is terrifying. It 100 percent clear this is genuine thr only thing important to him. In his emotional dementia state he sees this as power his legacy. Add whatever Walter Reed is pumping into him. I can't imagine a individual more easily manipulated into a nuclear first strike without full comprehension of the consequences.
Pretty much no one pays attention to him when hes not in front of a Mike. He just babbles away unaware that he is totally irrelevant. He signs what they put in front of him. He even babbled this out on the Mike once " i dont know what i sign' unaware in his dementia it was inappropriate to admit that.
IMO the person at the last debate was a double and will be for the next ones. No amount of drugs can offset the dementia we witness.
To some extent what we witness is the end of th idea of a president. What is presented is that the advisors should make the decisions the president should not. After all the people elect him and they would probably vote Elvis in alive or dead so the president is best suited to a reality TV role not actually making deciscions. People like Karine pretend they know what he really means when he babbles but really they are starting policy that comes from elsewhere.
Its reminiscent of the CS Lewis book where they keep a severed head alive. Considering the fundamental change this represents I find it doubtful we are returning to a president who actually makes decisions. Perhaps a war commitee or such elections temporarily suspended. It's not just Trump who is a dictator. It's not just Putin. It's any human who reserves the right to overrule the policy makers and advisors. Like for instance the war is peace summit.

Posted by: duckncover | Jun 18 2024 3:46 utc | 99


Not too hard to understand the different views, but easy not to also if not familiar with the perceptions of others:

"Rod Stewart made his stance clear in 2022 at a series of shows, telling the PA news agency: "When the war started, in this household we were shocked beyond shock.

"Because I was born just after the war and so my family came through the Second World War, and to see another ground war with tanks, I never thought we'd say the day, it was just shocking and it's just beyond belief now.""


That could be a large part of the population in europe speaking and this is what Russia is faced with.

Set aside all the related hypocrisy etc. of western nations and understand what the focus point is. For over half a century, after having ceded their empires, the resulting framework of national borders has remained set in terms of no western nation claiming and taking that of another as its own. The tendency has been secessionist.

Instead political, military and economic interventions have been used for proxy control. Spoken without any condonation of those.

So when Russia crosses a border to claim territory, that is understood very clearly by much of the population in the west as blatantly wrong, in priority over all the other manipulation that goes on, because of its sheer visibility.

As Vladimir Putin once noted, much could be elaborated or revealed, but it makes no difference because the west is not listening. Yet he makes the case for Russia all the same. Carlson noted in his interview that it was good but that Putin seemed tense enough and his presentation prepared, whereas Carlson preferred relaxed interview. However Putin, with a one off opportunity to present his country's side of the story to the west, was understandably not going to waste that.

In his recent speech, which I hope to critique positively at some point, he reiterated Russia's position.

I know what it is to have to repeat knowing that it will not be understood, it takes a lot to make that effort, it feels like you look like you are trying to convince yourself.

In reply, we have the US authorising the use of its weapons on Russian territory. The US must know how this looks to Russia's leadership, of openly directing destruction within a territory at state level. It is to say the conflict is from them, that they are openly trying to destroy that country. This event is what has caught my attention more than anything else related to the conflict recently, it is an immense escalation made via a few simple purposeful words and a few news headlines. It isn't that Russia's leadership are proud or vain, or fearful of public reaction, it is that morally such a direction expects and deserves a reply because it otherwise undermines the structures of trust that hold that nation together.

So, and this is to the various agencies, make the peace.

It is being offered, and you are aware of ways to have it be presentable.

Please.


Posted by: Ornot | Jun 18 2024 3:49 utc | 100

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