Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 29, 2024
Zelenski Changes His Peace Plan

Zelenski's 'peace summit' in Switzerland had failed:

The reviews of Zelenski's latest show ain't positive:

The summit served warmed up bullshit without any significant nutritional value. The most important points weren't even discussed:

The war will continue until the complete destruction of the Ukrainian forces can no longer be ignored.

The last point may have come earlier than anticipated.

On June 27 Zelenski had changed tact (machine translation):

During a speech in Brussels, the president said that Ukraine wants to start negotiations on ending the war in the near future.

"Ukraine does not want to prolong the war, we do not want it to last for years. We need to put a settlement plan on the table within a few months, " he said.

Zelensky said that in the near future it is planned to develop a plan for the second world summit.

On June 28 he gave more details (machine translation):

President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Ukraine will present its detailed peace plan "this year".

The President announced this during a press conference in Kyiv.

"It is very important for us to show an end-of-war plan that will be supported by the majority of the world. This is the diplomatic path that we are working on. Not everything depends on us, our production of technology, drones, and artillery is really increasing, because we need to be strong on the battlefield. Because Russia understands nothing but force. These are two parallel processes: be strong and develop a detailed, clear plan, and it will be ready this year, " Zelensky said.

Note that the Ukrainian peace plan has long been presented by Zelensky. It implies the withdrawal of Russian troops to the borders. However, many countries of the world (especially representatives of the "global South") consider it unrealistic.

In other words, a new plan will probably be prepared.

Earlier Russia's President Putin had announced his conditions for a permanent peace agreement. How many of them will Zelenski accept within his new 'peace plan'?

Comments

the plan might be that there will be no power production in the Ukraine
Posted by: Poslan1 | Jun 30 2024 15:43 utc | 201

The plan is that Russia will dictate the terms of power production.

Posted by: too scents | Jun 30 2024 15:46 utc | 201

Posted by: Micron | Jun 30 2024 13:48 utc | 174
Fuck off nazi liar!

Posted by: Naive | Jun 30 2024 15:48 utc | 202

I have been wondering if we could get some of the large egos at MoA to be a little less vociferous, i.e. shorter posts and less pugnacious. There is little benefit to the fellow barflies to put ego size on display.
Some of the best style examples, IMHO, are unimperator, milites, karlof1, James (not M.), jane, and a few more.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jun 30 2024 15:50 utc | 203

Julian 123
“then there will be an offensive in Spring 2025 when the ground hardens – ”
=============
I thought it was the other way around: ground hardens/freezes in the winter and thaws and softens in the spring …

Posted by: Jane | Jun 30 2024 15:53 utc | 204

The plan is that Russia will dictate the terms of power production.
Posted by: too scents | Jun 30 2024 15:46 utc | 204

The former Soviet Republics got their Industries from Russia for free but on the agreement that Russia would control the terms, it did not really worked out in the end. I think the next try might be more strict.

Posted by: Poslan1 | Jun 30 2024 15:55 utc | 205

Unexpected breakthrough to Toretsk: A large stronghold of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the eastern outskirts of the village Kirov (Ukrainian Yur’ivka) was occupied by assault units of the Veterans detachment of the Center group of troops, using an underground tunnel.
The detachment’s fighters secretly cleared and used a tunnel more than 3 km long along the Seversky Donets canal and went behind the rear of a well-fortified stronghold in Kirov (Severny) with long-term firing points and underground shelters. Through the tunnel , the fighters established a supply of ammunition, weapons and food to the attack aircraft.
Using the factor of surprise, the unit’s fighters developed their success and completely captured the strong point , forcing the enemy to surrender or abandon their positions and retreat.
“>https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/9588

Posted by: too scents | Jun 30 2024 16:16 utc | 206

@Posted by: Jane | Jun 30 2024 15:53 utc | 207
Yep, Rasputitsa season, caused by heavy rains in the Autumn and thawing and rain in the Spring.

Posted by: Roger | Jun 30 2024 16:19 utc | 207

I’m a doomer/realist but even I don’t get the comment about hitting power generation. Transformers can be replaced and Jerry rigged. Power generation turbines cannot. I wondered why the Russians took so long to hit the turbines, not that they hit them.
Also, how exactly is the west going to make Russia pay? That $300 billion of Russian forex reserves is gone, it’s not coming back. Hitting or not hitting power plants won’t change that. And Russia will just nationalize $300 billion worth of western assets in Russia (and there are more than that in natural resource joint ventures alone) and it will come out net even. Other than that the West doesn’t have any way to take money. They blew their load already, threw everything they had in terms of sanctions on the wall and basically nothing stuck. There are nuisance level problems for Russia but overall the sanctions literally helped the Russian economy, by ending 30 years of massive capital flight overnight, and forcing the Russian state and oligarchs to keep money in country and invest it in Russian productive capacity rather than build up euro forex reserves or buy mansions in London and premier league sports teams (I think an under appreciated reason the UK economy is going so bad even compared to continental Europe is the sudden switching off of Russian money inflows)
I reserve judgement on the state of the military operation in Ukraine. I’ve heard about the line about to break so many times before and unlike Charlie Brown I refuse to take that football again. I’ll believe it when it happens.

Posted by: Salman | Jun 30 2024 16:20 utc | 208

@Posted by: too scents | Jun 30 2024 16:16 utc | 209
A repeat of the tunnel manoeuvre south of Avdiivka! That’s a huge advance, as it puts the Russians one kilometre from the centre of Niu-York, which could trigger a general collapse as happened with Avdiivka.

Posted by: Roger | Jun 30 2024 16:23 utc | 209

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 30 2024 15:45 utc | 203
It’s perfectly simple.
The military goal of a long-term reduction in available generating capacity can be achieved by knocking out key transformers (years to replace the big ones, moderate cost) or stations (decades? to rebuild, high cost).
What are the plausible motives for the observed choice to destroy power plants (noting the apparent risk taken to destroy the mechanical plant at Dnipro Hydroelectric Station)?
Again, I don’t think your arguments are to the point.
A possible explanation for the choice might be as retaliation for contemporary Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, if that’s the case it would be better to round out that timeline than get lost in non-explanatory factors.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 30 2024 16:26 utc | 210

As for the ICC aspect, the first thing the USA/Nato likes to hit is power generation. In Serbia, in Iraq, I think it’s a standard procedure. Not only power generation but water treatment plants for example. Correct me if I’m wrong and America didn’t do that in Iraq and Serbia but from my memory they did. So it’s rich for western dominated institutions to go after the Russians for that. In an ideal world this would never happen but I don’t expect a country which has done the same thing many times to get very far criticizing another country for doing the same thing

Posted by: Salman | Jun 30 2024 16:26 utc | 211

Avdiivka! That’s a huge advance
Posted by: Roger | Jun 30 2024 16:23 utc | 212

Avdeevka.

Posted by: too scents | Jun 30 2024 16:33 utc | 212

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 30 2024 16:26 utc | 213
Yea but couldn’t the Ukrainians have attacked storage facilities instead Of Russian means of producing fuel? Good thing the Russian built redundancy into their refineries or these attacks might have been inconvenient.
The Russians could have gone in all shock and awe like the USA does when they attack and immediately destroy the electrical grid and water supply to civilians but they didn’t … they only started destroying Ukrainian energy infrastructure in a permanant way after 2 years of war and similar attacks on their soil.
To date the Russians have been waging war against the regime not the people but now they are obviously losing patience. It looks like finally this week the Ukrainians are beginning to crack in a big way. Hopefully it won’t be long now until Ukrainians see peace again.
If Boris Johnson allowed the Ukrainians to enact the peace agreement they negotiated with the Russians over 2 years ago their only concern about electricity would be having enough plugs for the shit they bought on Amazon

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 30 2024 16:47 utc | 213

Correct me if I’m wrong and America didn’t do that in Iraq and Serbia but from my memory they did.
Posted by: Salman | Jun 30 2024 16:26 utc | 214

they did. mo mothers hometown was some 100km north of nis in serbia, and she recalled her family and relatives there during the “humanitarian intervention” telling how that one military facility was the only thing the americans did not bomb.
from memory, they bombed one food processing plant and one power plant, i think coal? also for whatever reason, her relatives showed her pictures of crop field beeing on fire, but this is a tradition the usa is continiuing in syria today. i didnt think much of that until i saw the americans do exactly the same in syria. then it all made sense.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jun 30 2024 16:55 utc | 214

I thought it was the other way around: ground hardens/freezes in the winter and thaws and softens in the spring …
Posted by: Jane | Jun 30 2024 15:53 utc | 207
Semantics … the ground “firms up” or “hardens” in summer so as ya don’t sink into it no more.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 30 2024 17:17 utc | 215

Correct me if I’m wrong and America didn’t do that in Iraq and Serbia
Posted by: Salman | Jun 30 2024 16:26 utc | 214
May 25, 1999:
“Officials at the Pentagon and at NATO headquarters in Belgium said allied jets deliberately attacked the power grid”
“But by increasing the hardship of ordinary citizens, alliance leaders also appeared to be seeking to encourage public disaffection with the government” “It’s fair to say we made the decision that we’re going to attack some elements of it in a way that’s going to take it down for longer than it would have been,” said a senior officer at the Pentagon.
WaPo
IIRC, some of the bombs used dispersed conductive strips. Shorted the transformers big time.

Posted by: Passerby | Jun 30 2024 17:25 utc | 216

America is winning this war of attrition. Imagine the incredulous looks of the cold warriors from decades past, if someone had predicted the Soviet Union would sink into civil war, Kiev would become a western stronghold, huge armies of Slavic soldiers would be battling each other, western weapons would freely flood the battlefield, the Russian flagship sunk, Russian energy production under attack, even beachgoers in Crimea bombed.
The Cold War think-tank types might ask with a smile: “Did Russia lose its nukes?”
And yes, Russia did lose its nukes, metaphorically. The minute Putin went for Kyiv, he turned a border struggle into an invasion. Once Ukraine was on its heels, any nation could sell weapons to Ukraine, because that is way the arms industry works, on both sides. Before the war, even sending the Ukraine Javelins was a big deal.
This is a civil war. Every time infrastructure is hit, in either Ukraine or Russia, it diminishes the same civilization and people. Ukraine is like Texas. One could make historical arguments that it was once independent, once part of Mexico, whatever propaganda you need; yet a war between Texas and the rest of the USA would be a disaster for both, especially, this type of war, an inept slog of constant killing and destruction.
Why did Putin do it? He thought he could take Ukraine like it was Somalia … go in light, shock and awe, and impose his own reality. His inept, corrupt generals and advisors reinforced the illusion that Ukraine was 404, as the barflies say. The battle for Kyiv was lost and the slog began. The push to Kyiv was not a feint to help Donbass, one would have to be delusional to believe that.
Yet why did Putin do it? Because he is a Russian elitist. I have noticed on a number of sites, like The Saker, the disrespect for Ukraine, the constant explanations of why their culture is inferior, why their nation is less real, why their people are cowardly failures for not marching lockstep with Russia. At best Ukrainians are seen as children to the Russia warmongers. The Ukrainians are viewed as sub-humans, or more precisely, sub-Russians … that sadly must be punished.
In reality, Ukraine has done very well. They have stopped Russia cold and plunged Putin into a quagmire. How much more basic can military strategy get? If a defending nation is able to halt an invader, slow them down to a crawl, they are succeeding.
Yet the real winner is the United States. They get a fantasy civil war in the old Soviet Union, and any dying or destruction, Zelensky’s people are absorbing — brothers, sisters, cousins of Russia.

Posted by: Napoleon | Jun 30 2024 18:01 utc | 217

Posted by: Napoleon | Jun 30 2024 18:01 utc | 220

Hitler was making grandiose pronouncements right to the end.
You’re not convincing anyone but yourself with your sycophantic repetition, and I suspect you might even be failing on that front. Like Ukraine, one might say.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 30 2024 18:11 utc | 218

France: Far right makes big gains in election first round – exit polls
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/796/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2024/6/30/fb53e185-576b-4bff-8826-1ece1d1b6072.png

Posted by: Apollyon | Jun 30 2024 18:19 utc | 219

Napoleon and Micron are sadly headed to the same destiny of Macron.

Posted by: Mario | Jun 30 2024 18:49 utc | 220

Posted by: Apollyon | Jun 30 2024 18:19 utc | 222
———————————————————
Far right vs right?
What is the difference? LePen has been tossing around milder statements lately.
If Germany repeats, likely, what will do the US do in trying to shift the financial burden to Brussels, Eurstan not being the same as the individual EU nations (plus the broke UK) which have their own budgets.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jun 30 2024 18:52 utc | 221

The West and the fascist current Ukraine may finally have realized that Russia could organize an international war tribunal in Kiev, if the war grinds to an inevitable end with an unconditional capitulation, like Germany in 1945, – Such a televised international tribunal, with a bunch of war criminals on the bench, with a lot of USA neocons mentioned prominently, would not be a good PR for the collective West.
The main culprits will be not sitting there, but they will be among accused for sure, and they would be dealt with in absentia. Of course, the ones who will be caught and physically present in front of the tribunal, would try to put the blame on the absent ones.
I think Russia would not trust the ICC or any other jurisdiction to deal with them.
This legalistic consideration may be a minor factor in the sudden change of heart by Z.

Posted by: fanto | Jun 30 2024 18:59 utc | 222

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 30 2024 16:47 utc | 216
Not sure what you mean by Ukraine choosing to hit storage vs. production but I think retaliation for energy infrastructure attacks and deterrence against future attacks of the same kind probably is the explanation, and a reasonable one, for the outright destruction of a few power plants, something we hadn’t seen up to that point.
As to whether they were inconvenient, it appears to have been worth obliterating few Ukrainian power stations in response, and there are reports from the time that Russia did a deal with Kazakhstan to make up for a 10..14% refining shortfall. I don’t know how much stock to put in those claims, did you see them at the time?

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 30 2024 19:06 utc | 223

Great story … I love fantasy, can’t wait to see the movie.
Here’s a little news piece from Germany dated Jan 1945. I’m not sure what war this was but the USA were sure getting their asses kicked. All those dead Americans, POW’s and burned out tanks. They gotta be telling the truth because who would lie about such things? turn on the subtitles cause it’s in German
https://youtu.be/w9U6F7Ec9RA?si=qpnP2LPtPU49Uqt7&t=503

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 30 2024 19:08 utc | 224

This from Susan Singer’s update today:
“UK: There is a member of Parliament who claims to “have defense analysts who supply me with information; they are on duty, and they say that there will be a nuclear explosion in Europe”—brought to you by Ukraine. This MP, Andrew Bridgen, says a nuclear provocation is being prepared by Kiev which, theoretically at least, should have precisely zero nukes and, in fact, per its 1991 agreement with the USSR/RF, should be a neutral state.”
Got me to wonder: IF so happens that 404 throws out a nuclear bomb, wouldn’t they immediately claim it comes from Russia and thereby get their coveted WWIII?

Posted by: Avtonom | Jun 30 2024 19:14 utc | 225

I thought it was the other way around: ground hardens/freezes in the winter and thaws and softens in the spring …
Jane | 207

It’s a different type of Julian calendar.

Posted by: Milton | Jun 30 2024 19:17 utc | 226

@ fanto | Jun 30 2024 18:59 utc | 225
as we already see and know first hand – ‘the revolution isn’t televised’… gil scott heron – the revolution will not be televised…
the western msm will keep a lid on any alternative viewpoints here… omission is one of the main ways to do this…

Posted by: james | Jun 30 2024 19:22 utc | 227

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 30 2024 16:26 utc | 213
Remember what Putin said about retaliating against Ukraine for the terrorist attacks on Russian refineries and POL storage?
He mentioned a purpose and made reference to a timetable.
Go look.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jun 30 2024 19:26 utc | 228

Napoleon | Jun 30 2024 18:01 utc | 220
*** Yet the real winner is the United States. They get a fantasy civil war in the old Soviet Union, and any dying or destruction, Zelensky’s people are absorbing — brothers, sisters, cousins of Russia.***
Zelensky’s people are neither Russian nor Ukrainian.

Posted by: Cynic | Jun 30 2024 19:55 utc | 229

Posted by: Napoleon | Jun 30 2024 18:01 utc | 220
To borrow from a Reaganism, if you have to write lengthy pieces explaining why someone is winning then they’re not winning.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 30 2024 19:57 utc | 230

“We don’t have enough people.” How to get out of the human capital crisis in Ukraine
https://regionews.ua/ukr/blog/ivan-primachenko/1718781591-nam-ne-vistachae-lyudey-yak-potribno-vihoditi-z-krizi-lyudskogo-kapitalu-v-ukrayini (via Translate Web Pages)

“We don’t have enough people!” – say large and small businesses, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the government, public organizations and donors. There is a shortage of drivers and cashiers, accountants and sales managers, cooks and managers, grant program managers and civil servants. There is also a shortage of those who know how to quickly create world-class training programs.
We are facing the largest human capital crisis in the history of Ukraine. People are needed by everyone and urgently. But there is a shortage of qualified specialists and there will not be enough in the coming years – for obvious reasons.
Therefore, mass training in new skills and professions comes to the fore. As well as additional training to increase the productivity of specialists whose services are actively in demand in the market. If we want to win and rebuild successfully, we must use our human capital 100%.
The first step to this is to understand the scale of the challenge. Today we are not talking about training and retraining thousands of people or even tens of thousands of people – we are talking about millions. In a matter of years. In a rapidly changing situation.
Accordingly, we need to start designing our curricula so that they are scalable, flexible, and allow us to learn in our free time. And they cost so much per listener that we had enough money for it – either our own or international partners.
Together with interested businesses, we must help veterans integrate into the work process as effectively as possible, help women who want to master stereotypically “male” scarce professions, and deploy mass vocational training.
Finally, all affected players should begin to treat learning not as a bonus topic in their strategic planning, but as a key condition for the success of their plans. Otherwise, there will be no one to implement the most ingenious strategy.

Clearly a lot of despair, seasoned with wishful thinking. Not clear who the target audience might be for this piece.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 30 2024 20:03 utc | 231

Posted by: Passerby | Jun 30 2024 17:25 utc | 219
IIRC, first time this phenomenon was discovered (chaff strips shorting transformers) was in the 80’s, when the USN accidentally blacked out parts of San Diego, during an exercise. Adapted Tomahawk missiles were then used for Operation DS and successfully blacked out large parts of Baghdad.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 30 2024 20:09 utc | 232

Dima noted an interesting point in his todays video. Russian missile/air force has managed to interdict and destroy two large vehicle/military trains east of Zaporozhye in the last few days. There are Nato stuff in western Ukraine, but it needs to be delivered to Chasov Yar/Zaporozhye/Pokrovsk direction. So some or all of those places have been missing shipments for several days now.
Especially Pokrovsk direction is weak right now and might require AFU to make a hasty scramble, once again stripping another area to make a hasty defense.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 30 2024 20:17 utc | 233

Yet why did Putin do it? Because he is a Russian elitist. I have noticed on a number of sites, like The Saker, the disrespect for Ukraine, the constant explanations of why their culture is inferior, why their nation is less real, why their people are cowardly failures for not marching lockstep with Russia. At best Ukrainians are seen as children to the Russia warmongers. The Ukrainians are viewed as sub-humans, or more precisely, sub-Russians … that sadly must be punished.
In reality, Ukraine has done very well. They have stopped Russia cold and plunged Putin into a quagmire. How much more basic can military strategy get? If a defending nation is able to halt an invader, slow them down to a crawl, they are succeeding.
Yet the real winner is the United States. They get a fantasy civil war in the old Soviet Union, and any dying or destruction, Zelensky’s people are absorbing — brothers, sisters, cousins of Russia.
Posted by: Napoleon | Jun 30 2024 18:01 utc | 220
very good post.
Most of the people here do not want to understand that.

Posted by: vargas | Jun 30 2024 20:19 utc | 234

Posted by: Naive | Jun 30 2024 15:48 utc | 205
It’s probably more effective to question their understanding of modern warfare, than just insult them. Micron has a PowerPoint deep understanding of the SMO, so whilst his opinion is always welcome, bear that in mind when you read his lengthy screeds. Also reflect that few, if any, truly know what is really going on in regards to the entirety of the conflict, and that includes leaders of the armed forces and the heads of state they serve.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 30 2024 20:22 utc | 235

Thank you, Englishoutside, for reminding us of the immediate necessity for Russian action in Feb. 2022.
I have tended to watch Sachs and Mearsheimer and nod along, but you are right, it was the 200,000 soldiers embedded in the Donbass, ready to execute the final solution, that spurred Russia to action.
And you are also right that Russia should have cut off the west of any commodities that weren’t sanctioned. It is outrageous to continue to supply the countries who are supplying the means to kill Russian soldiers.
Good reminder, and I will keep it in mind.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Jun 30 2024 20:27 utc | 236

Posted by: Milites | Jun 30 2024 20:22 utc | 238
I understand your point of view, but it is useless to question his understanding. He is here to disrupt the bar with his lies by repeating the propaganda which are everywhere in the western medias. When someone is lying on purpose, sorry, but there is no excuse in my opinion. Moreover he is sockpuppetting (see #220).

Posted by: Naive | Jun 30 2024 20:32 utc | 237

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 30 2024 15:21 utc | 197
Actual and perceived lethality of weapon systems always cause amusing moments when veterans wonder over to a wargaming table, at an exhibition and join in or comment about the rules being used! I’ve written before that the over-emphasis on footage of drone strikes and their elevation to near-mythical status, by journalists serving the Western perspective, misses out the less sexy, but more effective platforms, mortars, AGL’s, mines and medium calibre artillery.
Posted by: too scents | Jun 30 2024 15:43 utc | 200
Not to nit-pick, but many armies had the APC post war, the Russian were the first though to adopt the IFV concept in the form of the BMP.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 30 2024 20:42 utc | 238

Posted by: Naive | Jun 30 2024 20:32 utc | 240
Ok, understood. I just see these posters efforts as generally self-defeating, as they often illustrate the opposite of what they are attempting to prove, so I tend to use the frequency and content of their postings as an indicator of sorts.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 30 2024 21:06 utc | 239

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 30 2024 19:08 utc | 227
Local tv news adds music to news clips. Riots in Paris were accompanied by cheerful music. Trump’s conviction was to victorious rock music. Can’t wait for the soundtrack of the French election results.

Posted by: Passerby | Jun 30 2024 21:22 utc | 240

James 230
thanks for your reply; I believe that the power of western mass media will not stay very strong in the long run, and the ‘lid of omission’ will not be kept on the boiling pot of internet. There is a whiff of unrest in the USA, and in Europe, especially the young generation looks at a bleak future.
Religion with other social institutions, the government, are providing no relief – there is without question a deep void, deep distrust. So, the media need to watch, how they spin the truth. One example is the recent report by Judy Woodruff on PBS, on June 26, reporting from the ‘heartland of America’ –
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/christian-communities-face-growing-political-divide-as-religious-affiliation-declines

Posted by: fanto | Jun 30 2024 21:56 utc | 241

Russia has been had three major invasions over the last 315 years: in 1709 by Swedish King Charles XII; in 1812 by French Emperor Napoleon and in 1954 by Hitler all coming up through the Ukrainian steppes .
Posted by: canuck | Jun 30 2024 14:15 utc | 184
Indeed, and you could also count WWI in that regard as well. Even the Crimean war. So four major invasions and one smaller one. That calculates to one every seventy-eight to eighty years or so for a major invasion. And it has been a little more than eighty years since the last one. No wonder Russia took action when it did.

Posted by: James M. | Jun 30 2024 22:00 utc | 242

@ fanto | Jun 30 2024 21:56 utc | 244
thanks fanto.. i agree with your observations… my only question is how long before these changes become more clear and the msm will lose its ability to sway people… one could say it is already breaking down with the pletora of alternative news outlets and etc… i want be believe it will happen sooner then later and the floodgates will open, but hard to put a time frame on it..

Posted by: james | Jun 30 2024 22:05 utc | 243

Addendum to my previous thought about the possible show process, international war tribunal in the format of Nuremberg; this kind of publicity would be carefully watched by the millions of exiled Ukrainians – they would make ‘hay’ from the disclosures which would inevitable come to light during such proceedings. Their political leanings would become very much more radicalized, some on the right some on the left, but “center will not hold”.
In the end, Russophobia will be soundly defeated. The rest of the world will see what monstrous crime it was to use Ukraine to dismantle Russia.

Posted by: fanto | Jun 30 2024 22:05 utc | 244

Posted by: Milites | Jun 30 2024 21:06 utc | 242
like the helmet putting infantry in a motorized armoured box is an obvious solution to surviving the increased lethality of modern warfare. The other two options were tunnels and teleportation both of which proved impractical.
It’s like stealth aircraft. There’s only like 2 designs that work and still fly so every one looks like either an F-22 or B-2 flying wing simply because they’re the two configurations that work.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 30 2024 22:05 utc | 245

Posted by: fanto | Jun 30 2024 21:56 utc | 244
Religion is providing MAGA with a powerful unifying and calming force, much to the annoyance of the atheistic institutions trying to crush them by repeated provocations and intimidatory tactics. Old school is schooling the New Vanguard and they don’t understand or like it one bit.
As for the press, I warned a journalistic colleague he was going to be a dinosaur soon, and that was 10 years ago, he politely scoffed at my notion. Two years later he attended an international conference and heard the outgoing head of his organisation say the same thing. Four years ago they firmly hitched their wagon to the Biden donkey and have suffered ever since, with jobs being shed and a growing lack of public interest for their hyper-partisan product. He had a chance to leave the listing ship and join the growing number of citizen/alternate news organisations but now it’s too late.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 30 2024 22:13 utc | 246

So, the media need to watch, how they spin the truth. One example is the recent report by Judy Woodruff on PBS, on June 26, reporting from the ‘heartland of America’ –
Posted by: fanto | Jun 30 2024 21:56 utc | 244
———————————————
Another agitprop item from PBS, is my first reaction. You should have seen her face when the Monica Lewinsky story broke. A classic in ‘news’ TV. Likely still around on YouTube.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jun 30 2024 22:49 utc | 247

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 30 2024 22:05 utc | 248
Yes, but as you’re well aware, form fits function and as Russian tactics differed from their Western counterparts, so their machines did, although based on similar platforms.
Extending this to drone warfare there are four main counters
1. Camouflage
2. Kinetic
3. Electronic
4. Armour
Which combination is the best counter depends on which doctrine/design triumphs (not necessarily which side) and will write a new fascinating chapter in armoured warfare setting the course for future designs.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 30 2024 22:52 utc | 248

Dima:
-RU troops consolidate encirclement of Vovchansk citadel from the south, and an attack from the west to east into the Citadel
Yay. So what ? Why is Vovchansk so important ? It’s a small townlet just a stone’s throw from the border. The fact that it takes more than 3 months to conquer it, if anything, is a rather scathing indictment of Russian proficiency.
-AFU has very weak opportunity to support the Citadel
See above
-RU artillery and drones interdict AFU trying to come from the south of Vovchansk
Pure speculation.
-RU improve position east of Synkivka
Glad to know they’re improving. They have been stuck “east of Synkivka” for more than a year, so that’s not what I would call a massive scoop. Oh yeah and there were 2 or 3 embarrassing failures in attacking Synkivka, which saw several Russian columns being blown to smithereens. It was all obviously part of the plan I guess.
-AFU managed to restore control over a few parts of Kreminna forest and Seversky-Donets river
You don’t say. Probably a clever Russian plot to let them advance and then put them in a firebag.
-A few strikes in western part of east Chasov Yar
“the western part of east Chasov Yar”, lol. Soon it will be like in Bakhmut, they will breathlessly announce that the invincible Russian forces have managed to conquer small building in the south-east of the Western edge of the Eastern sector of central Chasov Yar. Anything to preserve the illusion I guess.
-FAB-3000 used for first time in New York, so far only in Kharkov area
-Speculation of Su-34 modified to use FAB-3000
And yet again this strange, almost phallic fascination for FAB-3000. And this after ridiculing NAFO for hyping HIMARS and Javelin. Wunderwaffe hopes never die, eh ?
-Fire anomalies west of Novooleksandrivka
don’t know what it means, but I guess it’s slow news day.
-AFU abandoning Citadel of Krasnogorovka as it is already mostly encircled
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 30 2024 10:25 utc | 150
“mostly encircled”. Also, I salute the arrival of a new meme : “Citadel”. As if in Vovchansk or Krasnogorovka you had these massive fortresses being 5-meter walls, whereas in reality it’s a few decrepit commiblocks.

Posted by: Micron | Jun 30 2024 13:59 utc | 178
Don’t know why I bother with you, but here goes.
1. So Vovchansk isn’t important, just a piece of sh#t hill billy town nowhere. So why did AFU strip their other fronts to the point of collapse to reinforce that POS?
2. RUAF interdicting AFU reinforcements from the south isn’t pure speculation, since there’s videos and stated claims by RUMOD specifically on these events.
3. Guess many places, like Synkivka are on a holding pattern. They are poking elsewhere now, when AFU strips something like Kupyansk or Synkivka, they’ll move again. This is a long war by nature, constrained by things like FPV drones and ISR, mostly.
4. The Kreminna forest is very dense, and easy to move inside without spotting, for both sides. As such there might not be any ‘front’ at all, things can move quickly inside the forest with a handful amount of soldiers. There is no coherent front per se.
5. What is meant by western part of east Chasov Yar is the Micro Canal district. AFU periodically sends new troops to occupy the western most structures in this district, which are bombed with things like TOS or FAB again and again. This works out for demilitarization.
6. Nobody said FAB-3000 is a ‘ultimate game changer’, it’s just another useful tool. Obviously it is constrained by a limited number of delivery platforms, probably FAB-1500 and rather FAB-500 will remain the workhorse till the end.
7. Fire anomalies are another way to look for artillery or bomb strikes, or big explosions. Sometimes all strikes aren’t reported so that is another way to see where things are headed.
8. Those ‘commie blocs’ just happen to be the highest rise areas in the center of the city, which is why they are fought over. It has been a theme throughout SMO – once you smoke out AFU from towns or cities, in the open they are dead much quicker.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 30 2024 23:32 utc | 249

Armoured warfare hasn’t evolved with the threat of advanced anti tank missiles and drones.
Armoured vehicles are normally designed to prevent small arms and shrapnels, yet there is no evidence showing moving under cover of smoke and especially artillery barrages consisting of anti personnel airburst munitions as suppressive fire.
Airburst munitions would also serve as anti drone buckshots.

Posted by: Suresh | Jun 30 2024 23:36 utc | 250

Posted by: Suresh | Jun 30 2024 23:36 utc | 253
Quite a lot of footage of chemical obscurants being used to shield Russian armoured attacks, but it’s not hot smoke, so can be penetrated by TI and often the wind disperses it. As for other counter-measure I doubt the military will be broadcasting it, for fear of an enemy counter appearing. Don’t also forget the impression of the drones superiority is mainly based on highly edited footage, if they were the wonder-weapons the media proclaims the dynamics of this conflict, and hence the progress, would be drastically different.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 30 2024 23:32 utc | 252
Good effort, but I fear anyone who does not appreciate the importance of high rise buildings, especially ones of Soviet construction, in urban combat really should be using this forum as an opportunity to learn, not pontificate. Ditto
The tactical importance of crossing points
How armies operate, and the importance of structure
The concept of active defence and force preservation.
The meaning of air-superiority
The strategy of encirclement
Again, as said before, some posters are coming to this subject with expertise in other areas thinking that by quickly learning the basics (often via the inter webs) and adapting their previous knowledge base they can speak authoritatively on the conflict. They can’t, few can, and I include myself, in the former category, even though my experience and knowledge base is predominantly orientated toward the military spectrum.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 1 2024 1:00 utc | 251

…But there is a shortage of qualified specialists and there will not be enough in the coming years – for obvious reasons…
Clearly a lot of despair, seasoned with wishful thinking. Not clear who the target audience might be for this piece.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 30 2024 20:03 utc | 234

I always stumble on such cavalier descriptions like obvious reasons. No, these reasons are not obvious, name them please.
Are these missing men dead already?
Have they been sent to the frontlines to be killed soon?
Have they fled the country so that they would escape their death in the trenches?

Posted by: Poslan1 | Jul 1 2024 1:49 utc | 252

Zelensky … today … yawn … yet another “peace plan” of using “intermediaries” to help negotiate some “peace deal”. He reiterates it is “impossible to negotiate with Russia”.
(Yeah, I’m even sick of my own endless inverted commas, but hey, with bullshit, you have to contextualise it).
* The guy JUST.DOES.NOT.GET.IT. The intermediaries don’t drive the tanks which are decimating his country day by day.
* Putin does not want nor need nor trust intermediaries. Lol, after all, because of Zelensky cleaving the world into ‘goodies with us or baddies supporting Russia’ there is no country without a bias!
* He clearly shows his impotence with every new utterence. I doubt that anyone will report anything he says in a month or two. He will soon become invisible, an irrelevancy.
I’d say the most effective way that RF could move towards a happy ending is to start (keep) working on popular Ukrainian sentiment for a dissolved Rada and General + Presidential elections. Methinks that’s the strategy of Russia’s power gradual disintegration. Fresh ejections might bring the 404 people out of their stupor to tell the world what THEY really want instead of their puppet masters. But I’m just not sure if they are awake enough for that, yet. The current crop of mouthpieces — Arestovitch, Yermak, Podolyak, Zalushny, Budanov– are all nazi psychopaths, so it’s still a long way off sensibility of public opinion, I guess.
In a funny kind of Reverse Maidan, Ukraine needs its own Ceaușescu moment.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Jul 1 2024 2:21 utc | 253

Posted by: Micron | Jun 30 2024 13:59 utc | 178
Don’t know why I bother with you, but here goes.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 30 2024 23:32 utc | 252
——————————————————
Thank you all the same.
You are a rare gem, but that will never fix some people here.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 1 2024 2:25 utc | 254

Don’t know why I bother with you, but here goes.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 30 2024 23:32 utc | 252
Because, like some of good faith all over the world, deep down, you believe that correct information and compassionate education of the ignorant might, just might, drop by drop, elevate the sum and the average intelligence of humanity to higher levels. I used to be such an idealist!
But let me forewarn you: with age comes a more realistic assessment of such people, such that chronic bigots and innate ignoramuses are immutable creatures. The saying mentions pearls and swine. Save your breath for those who ask in *willingness to learn*.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Jul 1 2024 2:40 utc | 255

Grrr, corrections for #256:
“Methinks that’s the strategy of Russia’s gradual power disintegration. Fresh ELECTIONS might bring the 404 people …”

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Jul 1 2024 2:45 utc | 256

Zelensky did a 180 in public. He may be a clown actor, but this still seems highly relevant to me.
Once again, the timing is interesting.
After the G7 summit and the ‘peace conference’, there were rumours of imminent escalation on the weekend 21.-23. Putin rushed to Pyongyang and Hanoi, US got an agreement to use Swedish bases. Nothing happens.
EU starts accession talks with Ukraine and, crucially, decides to give 1,4 billion Russian money to Kiev.
If this is confirmed, trust in the Euro will decrease, global capital will flee.
Mission accomplished, ‘Project Ukraine’ can be wound down?

Posted by: smuks | Jul 1 2024 3:19 utc | 257

Remember what Putin said about retaliating against Ukraine for the terrorist attacks on Russian refineries and POL storage? …
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jun 30 2024 19:26 utc | 231

Thanks for that, I didn’t remember, neither did anyone else so far, I managed to piece together the motive from other factors. The statements of the hits being retaliation are in old news articles as you say but I don’t see mention of a timetable, did you mean something specific by that, do you have a link?

… THE frozen asset are not enough to rebuild electric infrastructures, expecially if you hit the mechanical part. …
Posted by: Mario | Jun 30 2024 15:45 utc | 202

I don’t know how accurate the figure of frozen assets is or estimates of costs for damaged Ukrainian energy infrastructure but …
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/house-vote-billions-dollars-russian-government-money-sitting-us-banks-rcna148671
“More than $6 billion of the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets are sitting in U.S. banks. Most of the $300 billion in assets are in Germany, France and Belgium. On Wednesday, House Speaker Mike …”
https://www.forces.net/russia/ukraine-strikes-back-retaliation-russian-attacks-energy-infrastructure
“Russia has inflicted an estimated £9.5bn in damages on half of Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure.”

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 1 2024 5:04 utc | 258

Posted and discussed by many:
>>>Remember what Putin said about retaliating against Ukraine for the terrorist attacks … ? <<< ------ I may be the only one to think this, but I DO NOT believe that Putin or the RFAF ever engages in retaliation. It makes no sense. Retaliation, per se, makes no difference to thugs who have no qualms about committing terrorism. Even threats of severe consequences, like the death penalty, do not deter ideological haters and killers. I believe that each and every attack by Russia upon Ukraine has a practical, immediate, tactical purpose, initiated from previous intel which needed to be done anyway in the cause of the SMO. A Kinzhal strike over to Lvov is not just fired in anger! So called retaliation missions are more likely brought forward from as yet unactioned plans. In my opinion, Russia does not hold a psychology of punishing the Ukrainian people for the sins of their nazi leaders. Putin has many times said as much. So anyone who equates bombing the electricity network to punish Kiev or inconvenience the populous as revenge for some AFU or SSB action are misreading the situation. Of course, all leaders must talk about retaliation to assuage the vengeful types within their electorate, and make some kind of show about it. But revenge missions are not just arbitray attacks. Even the Crokus Cinema attack did not elicit some fearsome payback of 100 dead or injured Ukrainians. The next days were just business as usual whilst also prosecuting a few extra missiles upon orevioysly known AFU depots and troop strongholds. But so long as they were announced as payback, everyone was happy. It never changed Kiev's M.O. or the trajectory of the SMO. Imo, retaliation by Russia upon Ukraine is an imagined dramatisation. That's not to say a petulant child like Zelensky doesn't plot and order revenge strikes against Russia for what he sees as their affrontery to repossess Crimea and the Donbass. It's loosers who need to resort to retaliation. The strong just keep on doing what is most effective. The attitude of the God-I-wish-Putin-would-retaliate-more-strongly brigade here in MoA, I just see as a remnant Western-Judeo-Biblical Punishment Syndrome, that wrathful righteousness which the Israelis (and Yanks) like to exercise upon lesser beings. Imo, Putin plays a higher morality game than that.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Jul 1 2024 6:30 utc | 259

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 30 2024 11:43 utc | 156
What you say isn’t actually wrong but it leaves behind a misleading impression.
Russian TG is full of first-hand reports on the current state of the front line. Ukrainian FPVs are the scourge of Russian infantry and they are as cheap and easy to make as you say.
The Ukrainian front would collapse immediately without them because they are instrumental in preventing Russian forces from advancing without significant losses of their own. Which is, what, 5000 irrecoverable per month, even at the current rate of progress? There’s no point quoting Ukrainian losses, I’m not making a comparison, Ukrainian’s are sadly disposable.
Ukrainian FPVs can operate out to tens of kilometres via signal repeaters and Starlink hubs on lifting drone – if a Ukraine surveillance drone can fly over a Russian AD installation, it can act as an FPV repeater at that range, no use pretending otherwise. A smaller number of longer range FPVs are used to harry supply lines and engage more valuable targets, of which there is plenty of footage. There is no objection to be made against FPVs in this role, they are absolutely effective in damaging resupply missions. Again, there are plenty of first-hand TG reports about this.
These arguments about the inferiority of FPVs and other lightweight, low cost drones, compared to heavy weapons, are a strange genre, a kind of gross straw man that distracts from their role in maintaining Ukrainian opposition and Russian losses in this conflict and their obvious developmental potential.
Whether the small drone threat will abate due to future advances in counter drone tech is a separate argument. One might equally conjecture that drone tech will also evolve and that the threat from flying grenades will not greatly reduce over time, other than when taking costly technical precautions or practicing a level of vigilance that is itself a significant new burden and cost.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 1 2024 7:37 utc | 260

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 1 2024 5:04 utc | 261
So what?
If RF would have hit only the big transformers, as for your wish, the economic damage would have been less.
So, it’s perfectly understandable to hit the mechanics.

Posted by: Mario | Jul 1 2024 7:55 utc | 261

US bases are supposedly in lockdown, and US servicemen in Europe are not allowed to ware any insignia indicating they are US servicemen.
Some speculate there is an imminent false flag coming, or other version is they are just using to cover up more pouring of US troops in those bases.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 1 2024 9:44 utc | 262

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 1 2024 7:37 utc | 263
Good point. Although you will probably be called all sorts of names for pointing out information which is readily available on Telegram. Guess the blusterin’ barflies will then fall back on the second line of defense and dismiss those TG channels as unreliable. Ignoring the fact that many of these front reporters have been invited to the Kremlin.
It’s especially comical to claim that Ukrainian drones are low-range, as we regularly have reports of them flying hundreds of kilometers into Russia proper and striking critical assets.

Posted by: Micron | Jul 1 2024 9:48 utc | 263

Micron | Jul 1 2024 9:48 utc | 266
So it’s beyond your imagination that the Ukraine terrorist cells working in Russia can do these sort of attacks?
Much more likely than long range drones and all of the complex navigation and reconnaissance that goes with that. So maybe not that comical.

Posted by: ZimZum | Jul 1 2024 10:01 utc | 264

Posted by: ZimZum | Jul 1 2024 10:01 utc | 267
What is complex about that reconnaissance? At lot of the targets (building structures) can be located on the likes of Google Earth. And it is well known that the West is supplying more accurate and up to date information. A lot of the targets are easily located.
I don’t think the navigation is as complex as you would indicate. There is a band of uncertain width of GNSS jamming across the line of contact. Plus there are some ‘islands’ of GNSS jamming inside Russia. Those can be avoided as Russia is a large place and has plenty of targets outside those areas. It is possible to navigate a drone through the band of GPS jamming by using a number of different methods. The simplest is to have the ‘autopilot’ use a compass to fly a course, say ‘east’ for 2 hours. The methods won’t allow an targeting inside that band but once through it the drone can get a GNNS signal and then navigate to its target.

Posted by: Ed4 | Jul 1 2024 10:26 utc | 265

Ed4 | Jul 1 2024 10:26 utc | 269
You appear to know a bit more about it than me but still more complicated than launching from a nearby location which is what I think is most likely. Although the Ukrainians would like you to think that are performing all sorts of clever stunts, which they probably get from the CIA and MI6 who train them.

Posted by: ZimZum | Jul 1 2024 10:57 utc | 266

Posted by: Ed4 | Jul 1 2024 10:26 utc | 269
Some target are static and available on Google, not all of them.
Moving targets, such as military trains that RF allegedly hit a couple of days ago need real time recognissance, the same goes for targets that have possibly a multiple use.
You don’t hit a dock magazine when empty or full of private cars but you will hit if/when you know is full of military equipment.

Posted by: Mario | Jul 1 2024 11:32 utc | 267

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Jul 1 2024 6:30 utc | 262
Excellent post-thanks

Posted by: canuck | Jul 1 2024 11:44 utc | 268

such as military trains that RF allegedly hit a couple of days ago
LOL

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jul 1 2024 11:47 utc | 269

Posted by: Napoleon | Jun 30 2024 18:01 utc | 220
<=IMO, your personal internalized hate for Putin shines through most of your posts. for an indication of the source of real force behind this war check out the content in this link. https://www.vtforeignpolicy.com/2024/06/exclusive-new-nato-chief-a-soros-friend-who-funded-kiev-coup/
<=My understanding from the link, NATO leadership has been transferred from Bill Gates to George Soros.. ????? Posted by: james | Jun 30 2024 19:22 utc | 230 the western msm will keep a lid on any alternative viewpoints here... omission is one of the main ways to do this... <= I agree and that viewpoint is essential to discovering what is actually going on? Posted by: Avtonom | Jun 30 2024 19:14 utc | 228 brings you from beg of quote Susan Singer's update a comment that exposes the likely soros plan.. "UK: There is a member of Parliament who claims to “have defense analysts who supply me with information; they are on duty, and they say that there will be a nuclear explosion in Europe”—brought to you by Ukraine. This MP, Andrew Bridgen, says a nuclear provocation is being prepared by Kiev which, theoretically at least, should have precisely zero nukes and, in fact, per its 1991 agreement with the USSR/RF, should be a neutral state." Got me to wonder: IF so happens that 404 throws out a nuclear bomb, wouldn't they immediately claim it comes from Russia and thereby get their coveted WWIII? End of quote <==This bit of information indicates the result of the debate was planned. The Chaos caused by Biden's (dementia demonstration) and Trumps (redirected untruths) produced from the Debate was likely intended. Biden's refusal not to step down, seems to be part of the cover and his step down came from the debate? Chaos is the best hideout.. thanks for the information. From within the chaos comes to Ukraine, a nuclear false flag? This could explain why Ukraine is not suing for peace.

Posted by: snake | Jul 1 2024 11:47 utc | 270

The Chaos caused by Biden’s (dementia demonstration) and Trumps (redirected untruths) produced from the Debate was likely intended.
Posted by: snake | Jul 1 2024 11:47 utc | 274

Chaos is planned. LOL. Whatever. OK.
Good thing Chaos is singular. What if there were two or more chaoses?

Posted by: too scents | Jul 1 2024 11:53 utc | 271

Russia has been had three major invasions over the last 315 years: in 1709 by Swedish King Charles XII; in 1812 by French Emperor Napoleon and in 1941 by Hitler all coming up through the Ukrainian steppes .
Posted by: canuck | Jun 30 2024 14:15 utc | 184
“Indeed, and you could also count WWI in that regard as well. Even the Crimean war. So four major invasions and one smaller one. That calculates to one every seventy-eight to eighty years or so for a major invasion. And it has been a little more than eighty years since the last one. No wonder Russia took action when it did.”
Posted by: James M. | Jun 30 2024 22:00 utc | 245
Yes, thanks for the amendments-one could also add the Allies joining the White Russians fighting the Communists in 1919-21 in the Russian civil war..

Posted by: canuck | Jul 1 2024 11:55 utc | 272

Analyzing The Alleged J6-Like Plot That Was Just Foiled In Kiev

It appears as though the conspirators are homegrown dissidents without any ties to Russia, though they might have some connections to disgruntled members of the military.
The Ukrainian Prosecutor General revealed on Monday that the SBU foiled an alleged J6-like plot to seize power in Kiev the day prior by orchestrating a protest that would deliberately descend into a riot whose participants, including military personnel and PMCs, would then storm the Rada. Zelensky has been fearmongering since November about a so-called “Maidan 3” that he claimed was being organized by Russia against him so it’s very likely that he’ll spin this latest development as proof of that supposed plot.
It serves his political interests to discredit the possibility that this was a truly homegrown regime change attempt which might even potentially be tied to disgruntled members of the military irrespective of whether they have any connection with former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny. He used to be Zelensky’s chief rival before being replaced and designated as the new Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK and was of the opinion that it had become impossible to attain Zelensky’s maximalist objectives in the conflict.
Observers should also remember that Zelensky’s term expired in late May so he’s illegitimate due to the compelling legal argument made by President Putin last month that the Speaker of the Rada is now the head of state if the Ukrainian Constitution is still being followed. Moreover, there’s a lot of anger over the country’s forcible conscription measures that have ramped up due to Russia’s fresh push in Ukraine’s Kharkov Region in early May, so genuine anti-government sentiment veritably exists nowadays.
It therefore can’t be ruled out that this was indeed the work of bonafide domestic dissidents with no relationship whatsoever to Russia despite whatever Kiev might claim. Lying about that country’s alleged connection to the conspirators serves the dual purpose of justifying further crackdowns on society while reminding the West of the supposed “Russian threat” ahead of next week’s NATO Summit in an attempt to pressure them into extending more meaningful support for Ukraine.
The timing with which everything just unfolded is also worthy of further examination keeping in mind that upcoming event. According to the Prosecutor General, the culprits began disseminating anti-government messages on social media in May and continued doing so into June, which was what presumably attracted the state’s attention. It can thus be surmised that the authorities were aware of everything about this plot from its early stages and that it accordingly never posed a credible threat.
The reason why it wasn’t busted right away could have been to identify the full extent of their plans and expose everyone else within this network in order to take them all down at once. That’s sensible enough, but there might have also been an ulterior motive at play too, namely to make sure that this story circulates in the run-up to the NATO Summit for Zelensky’s previously mentioned self-interested political reasons instead of prematurely introducing it into the global information ecosystem weeks in advance.
Moreover, seeing as how Ukraine has reportedly begun a military buildup along the Belarusian border, it’s possible that Kiev planned to make this J6-like news public around the same time in order to exploit predictable allegations of Russian involvement in the plot as the pretext for the aforesaid measures. In that way, this move could then be spun as “defensive” even though it’s arguably predicated on at least conveying an intent to threaten Russia’s mutual defense ally, the purpose of which was explained here.
Putting it all together, it appears as though the conspirators are homegrown dissidents without any ties to Russia, though they might have some connections to disgruntled members of the military. The authorities knew about their plans early on but declined to bust them right away since they wanted to obtain more information. The ulterior motive was to have this story coincide with the latest Belarusian tensions and the upcoming NATO Summit, however, thus possibly presaging more Western escalations.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/analyzing-the-alleged-j6-like-plot

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 1 2024 12:01 utc | 273

Russian civil war: 1917 – 1919

Posted by: Doncic | Jul 1 2024 12:03 utc | 274

It’s especially comical to claim that Ukrainian drones are low-range, as we regularly have reports of them flying hundreds of kilometers into Russia proper and striking critical assets.
Posted by: Micron | Jul 1 2024 9:48 utc | 266
They’re drones right. To avoid radar you have be small and fly low you’re not going to get away with flying a Bayraktar deep into Russia.
Small drones have small payloads. The longer you fly the more fuel you need, more fuel equals smaller payload. Yes you can fly a small drone from Ukraine deep into Russia but you can’t carry a signifigant bomb AND fly deep into Russia. Aside from that flying low and slow to conserve puts you at risk of encountering a farmer with a shot gun. I’m sure NATO has drones that can fly long distances avoiding radar while carrying a decent weapon however these would be exotic beasts that NATO certainly want falling into Russian hands.
The simple solution is to smuggle the drone parts deep into Russia then assemble it on the kitchen table … that way you get a small cheap drone that can carry a signifigant weapon withput the risk of having months of planning go down the drain when a farmer with a shot gun blows your drones out of the sky.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jul 1 2024 12:06 utc | 275

Posted by: Mario | Jul 1 2024 11:32 utc | 271
The Ukrainian train I saw a video of was hit by a ballistic missile. A drone could have provided targetting or the Russians have a handful of satellites and that train could have been hit coincident with passage of one of their satellites that can provide targeting.
The US is in the process of launching a slew of small satellites in order to do the same thing, only on a more persistent basis.
There was a Russian train engine fairly close to the front that was hit by a number of Ukraine (FPV?) drones, but as one poster mentioned the payloads are really small, and from the video it was uncertain the drone strikes did any damage beyond chipping the paint.

Posted by: Ed4 | Jul 1 2024 12:30 utc | 276

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jun 30 2024 19:26 utc | 231
Thanks for that, I didn’t remember, neither did anyone else so far, I managed to piece together the motive from other factors. The statements of the hits being retaliation are in old news articles as you say but I don’t see mention of a timetable, did you mean something specific by that, do you have a link?
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 1 2024 5:04 utc | 261
—————————————————–
You skipped the part where Putin stated that he waited until the winter was over so that the Ukrainians would not freeze to death.
The time table conclusions can be derived from that statement.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 1 2024 12:31 utc | 277

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Jul 1 2024 6:30 utc | 262
Superb post. One of your best.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 1 2024 12:40 utc | 278

The New Atlas (Brian Berletic)
West Admits Ukraine’s Growing Manpower Crisis + the Evolution of Russia’s FAB-3000 Bomb
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for June 30, 2024…
– Western media admits Ukraine’s forces are stretched, forcing Kiev to move troops engaged in one desperate battle to another to prevent lines from collapsing;
– Ukraine’s mobilization is faced by large numbers of Ukrainian men fleeing the country;
– Ukraine is now resorting to recruiting from prisons;
– Western arms supplies are admittedly not enough to reach all sections of the Ukrainian front;
– Moves to secure more Patriot systems do not solve the problem of too few interceptor missiles being produced annually;
– Additional Patriot missile launchers may allow Ukraine to temporarily disrupt Russian glide bomb operations, but only until Russia eliminates Patriots near the line of contact as it did earlier this year;
– Initial claims that Russia’s FAB-3000 bomb was impractical have been proven false by a series of strikes using the munition;
– Russian glide bombs have been steadily improved and built in greater numbers since their appearance in the conflict and will continue to be advanced in quantities, range, and capabilities;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wy9pQ9Ldopo&t=14s

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 1 2024 12:59 utc | 279

Posted by: Ed4 | Jul 1 2024 12:30 utc | 280
And that it is.
Noone is going to target something based on Google.
Infact, it appears that most, if not all, the strikes in Crimea are made under the supervision of one or more awacs on the black sea and surely using also satellite Irs .

Posted by: Mario | Jul 1 2024 13:10 utc | 280

All the Zelensky’s plan etc.
Keep remembering.
He was a TV comedian who was elected because.
1 How could he be any worse than the crowd before.
2 Backed by a Ukrainian oligarch.
3 Promised to heal the rifts with eastern Ukraine.
4 The Boris Johnson visit.
Anyway fair to surmise he’s not the man with the plan.

Posted by: jpc | Jul 1 2024 13:12 utc | 281

⚡️ Chief of Staff of the Azov Regiment Krotevich says: “No peace without victory. There is only one victory – not a single Russian soldier on Ukrainian territory. We will not leave this war to our descendants, and you won’t either because if you try, it will be bad. For you and for them. If this is a test, don’t even think about it. I wrote this calmly.”
This is essentially an announcement of an impending internal conflict in Ukraine: Zelensky and the President’s Office express readiness to lower their demands in negotiations, while the radical part of the military threatens them. We remind you that, because of Krotevich, General Sodol was removed a few days ago. But it seems the ambitions of the new military elite are not limited to their units. This is not the only threat to Ukraine’s political leadership. On the other hand, Zelensky’s administration is also embroiled in a conflict with pro-Western activists (so-called grant-eaters). http://Strana.ua writes about this. Zelensky and the generals are accused of corruption, and Head of the Office Yermak believes that the grant-eaters are behind the wave of negative publications in the Western press about the rampant corruption in Ukraine. Strana suggests that the struggle will intensify this year, as the activists are tied to the Democratic Party, and in case of Trump’s return to power, they need to be removed from the scene.

https://x.com/Zlatti_71/status/1807764739604234320

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 1 2024 13:18 utc | 282

The Chaos caused by Biden’s (dementia demonstration) and Trumps (redirected untruths) produced from the Debate was likely intended.
Posted by: snake | Jul 1 2024 11:47 utc | 274
Why? What can they achieve ?

Posted by: vargas | Jul 1 2024 13:38 utc | 283

Backed by a Ukrainian oligarch.
Posted by: jpc | Jul 1 2024 13:12 utc | 285

Don’t bother to search for Kolomoisky on Google. You won’t get any interesting results.

Kolomoisky, who built his fortune during the lawless years immediately following the fall of the Soviet Union, reportedly has a controlling interest in Burisma, the Ukrainian oil and gas company which put President Biden’s son, Hunter, on its board of directors in 2014 at a salary of $50,000 per month.
https://hksar.org/businessmen-accused-of-ukraine-money-laundering-gave-millions-to-new-york-charities

Who is Ihor Kolomoisky? Even Vladimir Putin calls him a crook and there are lawsuits against him in multiple countries. He dabbles in Ukranian politics and was active in attempting to throw the Russians out of Ukraine. But none of these causes appears to have distracted him from massive accumulation of wealth. Even after his disastrous business dealings in the United States, as of 2018, Kolomoisky was paying D.C. lobbyists to obtain an E-2 “investors” visa for him so he could do business more directly in the United States without intermediaries.
How did such a crook come to be the single largest commercial real estate owner in downtown Cleveland?
“>https://thelandcle.org/stories/its-raining-ukrainians-why-we-should-care-about-money-laundering-in-downtown-cleveland/

Ukrainian corruption is tied to USA (and by extension Israel) at the hip.

Posted by: too scents | Jul 1 2024 13:42 utc | 284

“This is essentially an announcement of an impending internal conflict in Ukraine: Zelensky and the President’s Office express readiness to lower their demands in negotiations, while the radical part of the military threatens them”
That must be diversity hire at strana dot cia trying to brainwash more local idiots. Now it’s possible azov girls feel some stress, natoids started to appear in Ukr, azovs may fear they won’t be the superior race anymore but the new cannon fodder.
Also I don’t know when Zeli said anything about lowering demands, he said he’ll write another plan based on the previous plan and a third party will send it to Russia, they don’t want to talk.

Posted by: rk | Jul 1 2024 13:44 utc | 285

There’s a large build up of military personnel on the border of Ukraine and Belarus Lukashenko has said that this will allow Ukrainain forces to sneak in and out of Ukraine in which they can deploy mines etc. Maybe an attack against Belarus is in the making.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jul 1 2024 13:54 utc | 286

@Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jul 1 2024 13:54 utc | 291
How can that be possible? We’ve been told Ukraine is low on manpower and ammo. How can they afford to open a second front against another nation?

Posted by: bored | Jul 1 2024 14:15 utc | 287

Posted by: bored | Jul 1 2024 14:15 utc | 292
Poles, balts, mercenaries.. nato.
The prostitutes in eu will of course swallow the line that its ukrainians defending against an belarus incursion or somesuch tripe.

Posted by: Justpassinby | Jul 1 2024 14:17 utc | 288

Posted by: bored | Jul 1 2024 14:15 utc | 292
Most likely the composition is mostly Nato under the Ukraine banner. It’s been already public knowledge for months that the reason Nato put troops in (western) Ukraine was to release poor ukroconscripts to the east. And those troops happened to pile up on Belarus’ border.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 1 2024 14:48 utc | 289

unimperator | Jul 1 2024 12:01 utc | 277
The so-called “coup attempt” is a strange story, and Korybko’s take isn’t very enlightening imho.
To ‘storm the parliament building’, you need a massive demonstration. How was that supposed to suddenly materialize? Also, you need support from relevant players in politics or military. Are there any?
The most probable explanation imo is that the whole “plot” was an SBU invention.
To make headlines ahead of NATO summit, and to deter supporters of an actual potential coup.
A fake coup to pre-empt an expected real one.
Maybe an attack against Belarus is in the making.
Republicofscotland | Jul 1 2024 13:54 utc | 291
Doesn’t make an awful lot of sense imho. Where’s the (wo)manpower, and more importantly: What’s the point? Minsk won’t be provoked to start a large-scale “invasion” (what for?), and NATO won’t send masses of troops.
The whole story smells of diversion ahead of NATO summit, draw attention away from the collapsing front.

Posted by: smuks | Jul 1 2024 15:09 utc | 290

… So, it’s perfectly understandable to hit the mechanics.
Posted by: Mario | Jul 1 2024 7:55 utc | 264

Actually, it’s stretching the bounds of target selection to hit the turbine hall of Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant, adjacent to the dam itself, when one-time destruction of critical transformers would have knocked out the generating capacity, for relatively minor restoration costs, and without the risk of catastrophic unintended consequences
If it’s all slide rules and filing cabinets you’ll be able to explain the choice of risk profile.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Jul 1 2024 6:30 utc | 262
Poor fare, ill considered endorsements.
“A Kinzhal strike over to Lvov is not just fired in anger! So called retaliation missions are more likely brought forward from as yet unactioned plans.”
Not a good example. The cluster attack on Belgorod, 30 Dec 2023, was immediately followed by wave of the heaviest bunker strikes, Kinzhal included, this is when Austin disappeared and only turned up much later. What makes something retaliation is cause and intent, not that strikes are emotionally motivated, or based on information collected and developed as part of routine mission planning, so “unactioned plans” has nothing to do with it. At the time there was no other reason to up the ante in that way.
Yes to your psychological assessment that retaliation is probably worthless against crazies, witness the fact that even the enormous wave of strikes in the wake of 30 December produced maybe a brief lull but attacks on Belgorod have continued and increased since then. Crocus City hall wasn’t followed by anything specific but the suspects ending up worse for where might have been thought enough to placate public opinion.
In reality, the destruction of the Dnipro HPP is an outlier event for the destruction of the plant itself and especially for the risk taken with its proximity to the dam. Likewise, the strikes immediately after 30 December were enormous by any standard. You are entitled to disagree but I say that neither of these events would have occurred at that point in time, or with such enormous show of force, without the precipitating events. They were not routine.
You dismiss retaliation by equating it with the obviously false image of Russian decision makers acting emotionally. Yet, at the same time, the correlation between Ukraine effrontery and subsequent Russian strikes, even massive strikes without plausible alternate motive, is an observable feature of the conflict.
Dancing around weather these acts qualify as retaliation based on the assumption that retaliation must be hot headed is not informative. There is a distinction to be made on the grounds of emotional investment but not with the emphasis you give it.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 1 2024 15:13 utc | 291

The whole story smells of diversion ahead of NATO summit
Posted by: smuks | Jul 1 2024 15:09 utc | 295

It is more likely a make work stunt to keep the SBU group involved well distanced from a more dangerous re-assignment.
How else is it not a scam?

Posted by: too scents | Jul 1 2024 15:15 utc | 292

The whole story smells of diversion ahead of NATO summit, draw attention away from the collapsing front.
Posted by: smuks | Jul 1 2024 15:09 utc | 295

Many have speculated this as another desperate attempt to draw in NATO precisely due to the collapsing front.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jul 1 2024 15:37 utc | 293

If RF would have hit only the big transformers, as for your wish, the economic damage would have been less.
So, it’s perfectly understandable to hit the mechanics.
Posted by: Mario | Jul 1 2024 7:55 utc | 264
Not answering you in particular, but the whole generators vs transformers issue.
You strike power generation and you turn ukraine in a burden for the EU, and can cut that lifeline any moment you choose (bomb the power lines into ukraine)
Furthermore you can re-establish energy quickly after surrender by connecting to russian grid.
That would not be possible if the target were the huge transformers.

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 1 2024 16:01 utc | 294

@ Newbie | Jul 1 2024 16:01 utc | 299 and @ Mario | Jul 1 2024 7:55 utc | 264
thanks… that makes a lot of sense…

Posted by: james | Jul 1 2024 16:10 utc | 295

In related news… congratulations to the first owner of the new Bugatti Tourbillon, Olena Zelenska!
https://x.com/BowesChay/status/1807802283276558367

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 1 2024 16:16 utc | 296

@301
price tag around EUR 3.5 million, btw.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 1 2024 16:17 utc | 297

You strike power generation and you turn ukraine in a burden for the EU, and can cut that lifeline any moment you choose (bomb the power lines into ukraine)

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 1 2024 16:01 utc | 299
I think the drain on the EU is precisely why Russia hasn’t attacked the grid interconnectors yet. Ukrainian imports have been running at between 18- and 22,000MWh daily, with one recent outlier as high as 28,000MWh.
Given the parlous state of Ukraine’s foreign exchange reserves I can see some EU grid operators staring at some hefty unpaid bills, probably to be made whole by yet more ECB debt issuance.
It’s all good, financially attritional stuff.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 1 2024 16:18 utc | 298

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 1 2024 7:37 utc | 263
‘Russian TG is full of first-hand reports on the current state of the front line…’
That fallacy sinks your argument, luckily it was at the very beginning so I didn’t have to read any more corrupted premises.
Posted by: Micron | Jul 1 2024 9:48 utc | 266
Similar categorisation does not equal similar capability, i.e. a drone is not just a drone.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 1 2024 15:13 utc | 296
You’re mistaking contingent action with retaliation. The the first, whilst seemingly reactive in nature, maintains agency and purpose, the second cedes it, compromising the ability to retain the initiative.

Posted by: Milites | Jul 1 2024 16:22 utc | 299

Posted by: anon2020 | Jul 1 2024 15:13 utc | 296
————————————————–
Good post on retaliation.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jul 1 2024 16:28 utc | 300