Zelenski Changes His Peace Plan
Zelenski's 'peace summit' in Switzerland had failed:
The reviews of Zelenski's latest show ain't positive:
...
The summit served warmed up bullshit without any significant nutritional value. The most important points weren't even discussed:
...
The war will continue until the complete destruction of the Ukrainian forces can no longer be ignored.
The last point may have come earlier than anticipated.
On June 27 Zelenski had changed tact (machine translation):
During a speech in Brussels, the president said that Ukraine wants to start negotiations on ending the war in the near future."Ukraine does not want to prolong the war, we do not want it to last for years. We need to put a settlement plan on the table within a few months, " he said.
Zelensky said that in the near future it is planned to develop a plan for the second world summit.
On June 28 he gave more details (machine translation):
President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Ukraine will present its detailed peace plan "this year".The President announced this during a press conference in Kyiv.
"It is very important for us to show an end-of-war plan that will be supported by the majority of the world. This is the diplomatic path that we are working on. Not everything depends on us, our production of technology, drones, and artillery is really increasing, because we need to be strong on the battlefield. Because Russia understands nothing but force. These are two parallel processes: be strong and develop a detailed, clear plan, and it will be ready this year, " Zelensky said.
...
Note that the Ukrainian peace plan has long been presented by Zelensky. It implies the withdrawal of Russian troops to the borders. However, many countries of the world (especially representatives of the "global South") consider it unrealistic.In other words, a new plan will probably be prepared.
Earlier Russia's President Putin had announced his conditions for a permanent peace agreement. How many of them will Zelenski accept within his new 'peace plan'?
Posted by b on June 29, 2024 at 16:33 UTC | Permalink
next page »Imagine the lines Zelenski ripped during the "debate".
Posted by: too scents | Jun 29 2024 16:46 utc | 3
I do not trust any word coming from Zelenski's mouth. Besides, he is just a puppet. The shots are called in Washington.
The trends on the ground remain worrying. I think this "peace plan" hides a real intention from NATO to launch another offensive. Let's consider a few facts.
Ukrainian drones dominate the skies. Recently, they have gotten more and more adept at downing Russian observation drones hovering between 1.2-1.5 km high (Orlan drones). Some videos have made the rounds. Underneath, the number of Ukie drones is just incredible, they are smothering any attempt at a serious breakthrough, and Russians have no efficient countermeasure.
Ammo is flowing more and more. EU production is on track to reach 1 million shells this year, in a year they will reach parity with the Russian industry. This was pooh-poohed by the Z-crowd, but on the ground the signs are unmistakable and widely echoed by respected military analysts or bloggers.
Now, before I get a sperg out by some Anglo nerd saying "these are just rumors, 99% of these analysts are unreliable", let me remind you that several of these bloggers or military correspondents (Sladkov, Poddubny) have been invited by Vladimir fucking Putin himself. Tell me when you were invited by someone else than your old mother telling you to crawl out of your basement.
What these military correspondents tell us is that there is no shell hunger, and the gap is decreasing (although still in Russian favour).
All in all, Russia may have a slight advantage in sheer mass of conventional artillery, but lag way behind on drones. Ukrainian combo of drones + pinpoint strikes is sufficient to thwart most advances or slow them down enough that they take months.
Oh and remember the widely ridiculed CAESARs ? I still have in mind simplicius echoing some potshots at the gun (pun unintended). Well, turns out demand is going through the roof, multiple countries are lining up. This gun is fucking lethal, 6 shots in a minute with pinpoint accuracy. Underestimating your enemy is the most dangerous trait...
Posted by: Micron | Jun 29 2024 16:46 utc | 4
All Zelensky and the war party need to do is re-read Moscow’s peace offer from Dec. 2021. Those are the terms.
Anything else is fantasy
Posted by: Exile | Jun 29 2024 16:52 utc | 5
All praise for your ongoing work here at MoA, Bernard. But it really should be "change tack".
Posted by: William Williams | Jun 29 2024 16:54 utc | 6
It seems to me the situation on the ground for Ukraine is deteriorating rapidly, at an accelerating pace. Under the circumstances, the US may not be able to dictate any longer- people in the military and security services may tell Zelensky 'either you order whatever will stop the Russians killing us, or we will start simply capitulating major formations on the front.' Or they'll just kill him and take what measures they deem appropriate. A major difficulty in the situation for Ukraine is that they have no legitimate government to conduct negotiations, and RF has been very explicit about this. Essentially, Zelensky is still able to give 'some' orders to the military, and to make public announcements, but he can't come to an agreement with RF, and for all practical purposes, nobody else can either until he is removed from the Ukrainian Table of Organization. So, if he's intransigent about remaining, and those that want to end the war in the security services and military can't get rid of him, they will have no option but to choose their particular moment of capitulation. Combat formations on the brigade level seem to be surrendering already on their own initiative, but I haven't seen firm evidence that these are orchestrated by the HQ elements- it seems more like they are just 'acknowledged.' That could change if Zelensky hangs on to power much longer.
I see Zelensky at the moment as simply providing a delaying tactic, to keep power a little longer so the US can have the war it wants. He cannot possibly negotiate with RF, that's just off the table, so this is all show to keep his subordinates in line. Once they do the math, things will start to pop.
Posted by: Honzo | Jun 29 2024 16:59 utc | 7
Does anybody really care for Zelensky's new plan? Do you really trust an actor's flip/flop PR talks? Not even Mat Damon's interviews can withstand the rigors of trust but verify methodology. And Zelensky's? Unless the media which carry Zelensky's worth little.
Posted by: KitaySupporter | Jun 29 2024 17:05 utc | 8
He changed tack, b.
Sailboats have to tack to make progress against a headwind.
Zelenski has finally noticed Ukraine's headwinds.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jun 29 2024 17:06 utc | 9
Is Zelly disregarding his own legislation that forbids any talks with Russia?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 29 2024 17:14 utc | 10
@4
"Oh and remember the widely ridiculed CAESARs ? I still have in mind simplicius echoing some potshots at the gun (pun unintended). Well, turns out demand is going through the roof, multiple countries are lining up. This gun is fucking lethal, 6 shots in a minute with pinpoint accuracy. Underestimating your enemy is the most dangerous trait..."
Yes underestimating your enemy is dangerous. The fragile Caesar does not hold a candle to Russian MISTA S. New versions shoot 10 rounds per minute. Older versions shoot 6-8 RPM. Very Accurate, with 36Km range using RAP rounds.
If countries are lining up to buy Caesars they are getting screwed.
also Dream on about Europe ever matching Russia's ammo output. Never will happen.
Posted by: goldigger | Jun 29 2024 17:21 utc | 11
Just nonsense to help the Democrats, it allows Biden to talk peace rather than war going into the election. After that, look out.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 29 2024 17:26 utc | 12
Imagine the lines Zelenski ripped during the "debate".
Posted by: too scents | Jun 29 2024 16:46 utc | 3
Grand finale scene of Scarface, me thinks.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 29 2024 17:28 utc | 14
He is not relevant without being the legal president. No talks with Russia from his own rules. Obvious Russia on the up and up. Sod the peace plan, keep it up Russia, destruction of USA an NATO on the horizon.
Posted by: koan me a riddle | Jun 29 2024 17:28 utc | 15
Posted by: Micron | Jun 29 2024 16:46 utc | 4
Garbage in - garbage out. Listening to too much 404 propaganda, old Micro.
Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Jun 29 2024 17:29 utc | 16
Public opinion being softened up by a peace offensive. Watch yer back, Ze. ;O)
Posted by: Squeeth | Jun 29 2024 17:33 utc | 17
Sod the peace plan, keep it up Russia, destruction of USA an NATO on the horizon.
Posted by: koan me a riddle | Jun 29 2024 17:28 utc | 15
Tend to agree. Russia needs to completely wipe out all Western Imperialist influence in Ukraine. With that, the international board will finally change and other imperial dominoes will begin to fall.
There is no negotiating with a western imperialism that has declined to the point of being one sustained violent epileptic fit on the world stage. It's a mad dog endangering us all.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 29 2024 17:33 utc | 18
The Iskander-M missile system crew launched a missile strike on the unloading site of a Ukrainian military train near the settlement of Ukrainka, 9 km northeast of Zaporizhzhia.According to the source, the strike resulted in the destruction of:
– M113 armored personnel carriers (USA);
– Buk M1 air defense systems;
– NATO fuel tankers;
– Infantry fighting vehicles;
– Cargo transport vehicles;
– Up to 35 Ukrainian servicemen.https://x.com/distant_earth83/status/1807093439969870319
...
Partisan resistance is growing in Ukraine. A train with Western aid derailed near Odessa...
Another train with Western help derailed near Odessa! Guerrilla resistance in Ukraine is gaining momentum and doing everything to help the early arrival of Russia and the total destruction of the Ukrainian fascists.
However, the resistance activity is alive and gaining strength. The time has come for the world to learn about the incredible special operations carried out by guerrillas behind Ukrainian lines.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 29 2024 17:34 utc | 19
Also, I love the production lately B man! It's like you healed up right when things are reaching a turning point! Keep it up!
Oh, and don't forget to walk as much as possible. Aids recovery.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 29 2024 17:35 utc | 20
Ammo is flowing more and more. EU production is on track to reach 1 million shells this year
Posted by: Micron | Jun 29 2024 16:46 utc | 4
Meh, there’ll just be bigger explosions and fires when Russia hits the warehouses and storage depots...
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 29 2024 17:37 utc | 21
@Posted by: Honzo | Jun 29 2024 16:59 utc | 7
The most telling thing on the battlefield is the ease with which the Russians have broken the defence lines in front of Toretsk and are already in the local suburbs, Druzhba, Pivnichne and now Pivdenne and Zalizne. They are all of 2km from the centre of Toretsk. In addition, the Russians broke through the southern defence line of Niu York and have started moving toward the centre. This is a defensive stronghold that has held ever since the Russian intervention started, and where the emplacements have been reinforced for 10 years. The last of the major strongholds in the Donetsk-Horlivka area.
The Ukrainian daily losses have doubled (from 1,000 to 2,000 using the Russian military numbers) and the artillery losses have sky-rocketed. With these levels of losses (60,000+ a month) plus the movement of 10,000s of troops from the front lines to plug the holes north of Kharkov and the Ukrainian people's mass resistance to the conscription press gangs, the Ukrainian army simply does not have enough men and equipment to hold the front line and it is starting to crumble at a slowly accelerating rate. The Russians are in no hurry, preferring to keep their casualties low and the Ukrainian losses as high as possible (through artillery, drone, helicopter, and bombing).
This reality is being reflected in Zelensky's new much more realistic demeanour and words, together with the Western media which is becoming darker and darker. Here is a piece from the BBC 'There was no preparation': One marine's story of defending Kharkiv. Some notable quotes:
“But there is a problem, a lot of men went abroad [to escape the draft]. No-one wants to come back, no-one wants to fight, and no-one wants to die.”
The BBC still have to lie in saying that Russian losses are the same as the Ukrainian, which of course is utter bullshit.
Moscow is currently on top in this industrialised conflict, with Kyiv struggling to counter its manpower, weaponry, and tactics. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky concedes time is running out for a diplomatic solution which favours Ukraine, which is why he recently held a peace summit in Switzerland.
Or this from the Guardian ‘I am not made for war’: the men fleeing Ukraine to evade conscription
The autumn cannot arrive soon enough for Dmytro, when his handlers have promised to get him out of Ukraine. For the past month, the 31-year-old photographer from Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, has been holed up in his flat, rarely stepping outside, to avoid being conscripted into the army. “I want to leave the country. My mind can’t take being trapped here any more,” Dmytro said ... “I am not made for war. I can’t kill people, even if they are Russians. I won’t last long on the front … I want to build a family and see the world. I am not ready to die,” he said. Dmytro was unsure if he could trust the handlers, who had recently raised their prices to meet the growing demand, but said he saw no other options. More than two years into Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s armed forces are desperately short of soldiers.
Even before the latest mobilisation drive, more than 20,000 men are believed to have fled the country to avoid service, some of them swimming and drowning in attempting to cross Ukraine’s border into Romania.
There are no exact figures for how many men are hiding or planning to leave, but in big cities Telegram channels with thousands of members have sprung up where users report sightings of state representatives to help others avoid them. Interviews with five men who were hiding at home to avoid conscription revealed a variety of reasons for doing it. Many voiced their dread of perishing in a battle marked by gruesome trench fighting and a brutal death rate. Others mentioned their resistance to conscription because of what they perceived as inadequate training before being sent to the frontlines. Some chose to avoid mobilisation on complex family grounds.
As like the BBC, the Guardian attempts to gloss over the true gravity of the situation (and of course does not report the immensity of the Ukrainian losses), but the allowance of this type of reporting points to a process of getting the Western public ready for (i) Ukrainian defeat/large areas given up through negotiation or (ii) the entry of Western troops to "rescue" Ukraine from the "bad" Russians. Given the state of public opinion in Europe and the US doing (ii) will be nearly impossible without a new level of authoritarian political control, so we will probably end up with (i). It still seems to me that the Western elites are not fully cognizant of how fast things could collapse in Ukraine, a reality that Zelensky seems to be waking up to.
Since so much of what Oceania says for broad consumption (rather than between elites) proves to be a lie (deception, optics), I fear what really comes next.
Posted by: despondent | Jun 29 2024 17:38 utc | 23
Zelensky does not give a sh#t about any of the realities on the ground. His mouth will spew whatever US or UK foreign state department tells him to say.
The issue is Russia is FUKUS doesn't have a lot to give to Ukraine anymore, and consequentially in the meatgrinders the casualty rates have shot up, I believe the record of AFU casualties was made within the last two days.
This means the US/UK are afraid they could lose control of the situation, and battalion sized formations refuse to follow Ze/Syrsky attack orders in various locations on the front. So operational command and control is partly being lost. That means coherency is in the toilet, and that means things continue crumbling worse than before.
So White House / Pentagon can't keep the thing together even with propaganda like telling Biden is completely mentally healthy and 100% fit for a renewed term, the propaganda is no longer hiding collapsing Ukraine.
Putin's peace offer is leave all Donetsk/Lugansk administrational areas. Kherson and Zaporozhye too. And NATO out. There's a miniscule chance of them accepting it, so the collapse will continue and becomes more visible going into the elections.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 29 2024 17:40 utc | 24
Just nonsense to help the Democrats, it allows Biden to talk peace rather than war going into the election. After that, look out.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 29 2024 17:26 utc | 12
Russia might want to increase the pace a little this summer. If they can roll up the Ukronazis a month or two before November, it would really crush the Dems, which is now the leading pro war party at this point. Nuland, Blinken, Sullivan...
Trump is no alternative, but he has at least spoken a somewhat rational stance on this suicidal obsession with militarily defeating Russia.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 29 2024 17:40 utc | 25
Micron in comment #4 wrote thus:
"I do not trust any word coming from Zelenski's mouth."
"
Eve worse still: Ona cannot trust any false movemen of hi "Dick" (i.e. the penis he has cut to feed the US dogs of war).
Proof is that his piano-playing stunt some years ago was an "underhand job" on a pianoforte (or "yob" on both Russian and Ukrainian).
-
Here in our native kingdoms of Zemlya, the job offices fro employment seakers has a machine with a sign that many Slavs have found amusing: It says "Job Automat"--- a ørime place for Vladimir Zelensky to apply his prowesses!
.
P.S: THat traitor to peace in Europe was of course never registered as "Volotymir" in any document nor in any registrated document, nor on any ID-card duríng his childhood or his youth. Just like Putin, he bore the name of Vladimir from his Jidd progenitors.
tisi
Let him play the violin with his amazing "penal" dextiousitricity that huarried whence instead!
Posted by: Tollef Ås/秋涛乐/טלפ וש | Jun 29 2024 17:43 utc | 26
・demilitarization (Assurances that Ukraine will never join NATO and assurances that NATO weapons will never be brought into Ukraine in the future.)
・denazification (Liberation of the Donbass region, where Azov neo-Nazis had been attacking Russian speakers ever since the Maidan revolution.)
I don't care what Zelensky says, but in terms of the initial pronouncements of the Russian side and the aims of this SMO, I think Russia should not respond unless at the very least the above is achieved.
Posted by: Nokaz | Jun 29 2024 17:44 utc | 27
Micron | Jun 29 2024 16:46 utc | 4
If you follow Military Summary, you can see that on the very long front line, there are nearly ten active areas, and the drone domination and other aspects are different between the areas. Overall, hard to see an area where "Ukrainian domination" is sufficiently strong to advance, while in 2-3 areas Russians dominate. Neither side can profit from mass attacks, so Russia attempts to overextend Ukraine by activating more areas, and it is increasingly visible that Ukrainians shift forces in response and get overwhelmed in areas from which forces (including drone squads) were relocated. Additionally, both sides had areas with stupid command, leading to heavy losses, AND the replacement of commanders.
Military Summary claims that the quality and morale is dropping on Ukrainian side, which is still debatable, but the trend seems like that. Nevertheless, a "local picture" may show the opposite, especially on selected days.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jun 29 2024 17:45 utc | 28
“…..Ammo is flowing more and more. EU production is on track to reach 1 million shells this year….”
That’s great ! The 450 million people of the EU are now at roughly 1/3 the production rate of the 26 million people of North Korea 🤣
Posted by: Exile | Jun 29 2024 18:02 utc | 29
Notwithstanding the report of 5,000 new recruits per day (3 days training) - my guess is that Ukraine is as Russia claims suffering 50K to 60K casualties per month - ie double last year. Ukraine are most likely able to replace maybe half of their losses with with untrained troops [and returning wounded] who are less than fully motivated sturmtruppen. And a bit old and creaky as well. Minimally armed.
I think the reality is that at present the Ukes can replace the COMBAT strength of their units at maybe half the rate at which they are losing them. With c 100 Brigades and most at no more than half strength a few months ago that means that during June, July and August every soldier in a front line position will become a casualty. If you don't get the maths then work it out.
What this means is that by the beginning of September the UAF will collapse. I predicted it would start to collapse late spring when it ran out of ammo and air defence missiles (per Ukrainian sources). Well the UAF cannot really hold ground at present and is in dire straits.It is now collapsing in real time. [However if I was great at predictions I would have invested much more wisely and be much richer than I am. Which would not be difficult...]
The recent influx of western aid MIGHT help a bit bit - but seems to me to me more geared to trying to escalate matters and frighten Russia to the peace table. Good luck with that. IMO the Russians - if they have the means - will open a few more fronts. Each one seems to cause the UAF to lose a 1,000 men per day. 5 or 10 to 1 firepower advantages have consequences.
Now I do think and am on record as saying western intelligence agencies and hence western leadership are misguided about the facts on the ground. And this remains the case in my view. Nevertheless I also think that some sense of the debacle that is about to engulf western policy vis a vis Russia is sinking in. Hence the panic and the desire to escalate and "do something".
Other things being equal, I expect Ukraine to collapse in the Fall/Autumn. Just before the US elections so watch events there for pointers - [ hint fall guys]. Again, my prediction is late summer ie September time.
WW3 is still an option, though I hope wiser heads prevail. But Russia has essentially won this border war against the NATO proxy Ukraine and NATO now needs to decide to go all in or fold. NATO has a pair of threes, Russia a full house. In nuclear poker though, who knows? If NATO was a rational player they would concede this battle and fold, and prepare for they next one. I see little evidence of rational thinking.
The main protagonist - the USA - is led by a cretin who has senile dementia. Actually that is not correct. The Biden administration is a constellation of competing interests and groups. No one calls the shots. No one is in charge. ? I think Russia knows this and that the USA and hence the west is incapable of negotiating. Because there is no one to negotiate with.
Dangerous times.
Posted by: marcjf | Jun 29 2024 18:07 utc | 30
The President announced this during a press conference in Kyiv.
"It is very important for us to show an end-of-war plan that will be supported by the majority of the world
the 'importance' attached at comment is laughable.
Apart from NATO, the rest of "the majority of the world" wouldn't be that interested in the conflict between the West and Russia.
If Ukraine said it would surrender tomorrow, the majority of the world would accept it, so there is no need to worry about whether it would be supported or not.
who cares?
Posted by: Nokaz | Jun 29 2024 18:30 utc | 31
western intelligence agencies and hence western leadership are misguided about the facts on the ground. And this remains the case in my view. Nevertheless I also think that some sense of the debacle that is about to engulf western policy vis a vis Russia is sinking in. Hence the panic and the desire to escalate and "do something".
Posted by: marcjf | Jun 29 2024 18:07 utc | 30
Very much agree with this. I can‘t help but think of the West as some ancient, huge dinosaur whose tail and hindquarters are getting savaged by a more nimble predator but the pain and distress signals are very slow to reach the central nervous system, just a vague and growing sense of something is not quite right.
As for predicting timelines for Ukraine, my own view is something will collapse financially before militarily; the IMF and other creditors appear to be taking a more hawkish stance over Ukrainian bond and loan payment servicing. As best as I can (via online translations) I keep an eye on statements from the National Bank of Ukraine. Reading between the lines they are struggling to maintain economic and financial stability.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 29 2024 18:31 utc | 32
Please be overbearing to all the mis-spellings in my first comment-
HEre gome the correctiions:
..Micron in comment #4 wrote thus:
"I do not trust any word coming from Zelenski's mouth."
"
EveN worse still: Ona cannot trust any false movemenT of hiS "Dick" (i.e. the penis he has cut OFF to feed the US dogs of war).
Proof is that his piano-playing stunt some years ago was an "underhand job" on a pianoforte (or "yob" on both Russian and Ukrainian).
-
Here in our native kingdoms of Zemlya (outstandingly deicteed bu Vladimir Nabokov both in "Lolita" and in his magnum opus ca..ed "Pale fire"(Bjleleyii Lok), the job offices from employment seekers had a machine with a sign that many Slavs have found amusing: It says "Job Automat"--- a ørime place for Vladimir Zelensky to apply his prowesses!
.
P.S: THat traitor to peace in Europe was of course never registered as "Volotymir" in any document nor in any registrated document, nor on any ID-card duríng his childhood or his youth. Just like Putin, he bore the name of Vladimir from his Jidd progenitors.
tisi
Let him play the violin with his amazing "penal" dextiousitricity that huarried whence instead!
Posted by: Tollef Ås/秋涛乐/טלפ וש | Jun 29 2024 17:43 utc | 26
Posted by: Tollef Ås/秋涛乐/טלפ וש | Jun 29 2024 18:33 utc | 33
Other things being equal, I expect Ukraine to collapse in the Fall/Autumn.
My take as well for a variety of reasons. "Slowly, then suddenly" and we're getting much closer to the suddenly part.
Dima's next video is being promoted with the title "Major Breakthroughs on Multiple Fronts". OOPS.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jun 29 2024 18:34 utc | 34
Niet
Yermak watched the Biden/Trump debate over a bottle of pepper vodka - and after conking out on the couch woke up in the horrors after having a nightmare of Trump and Putin in the Orthodox Cathedral in Kiev blessing the Restoration of all historical Russian Empire lands to the Russian Federation and the rest of the place to Neutral Trumplandia!
Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 29 2024 18:39 utc | 35
Zelensky is delusional most of the time, but I think he's now clear-eyed enough to realize that his western handlers have lost interest in him personally and are ready to sacrifice him to get out of the quagmire they have created for him. He is in panic. But I don't think that he has a say in the matter anymore. Washington would throw in the towel perhaps sooner than later, because even the lunatic Zionists controlling the West are not necessarily suicidal.
Posted by: Steve | Jun 29 2024 18:45 utc | 36
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 29 2024 17:34 utc | 19
nice
Posted by: Grasdackel | Jun 29 2024 18:52 utc | 37
"It is very important for us to show an end-of-war plan that will be supported by the majority of the world." -Zelensky
This just shows the Keiv regime is still not interested in peace. He's still acting like his counterparty is 'the world' and not Russia. He's still doing narrative not negotiation.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jun 29 2024 18:54 utc | 38
RE: Micron | Jun 29 2024 16:46 utc | 4
It sure would be nice to have an 'ignore' button for that kind of trash.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jun 29 2024 18:57 utc | 39
"As for predicting timelines for Ukraine, my own view is something will collapse financially before militarily; the IMF and other creditors appear to be taking a more hawkish stance over Ukrainian bond and loan payment servicing. As best as I can (via online translations) I keep an eye on statements from the National Bank of Ukraine. Reading between the lines they are struggling to maintain economic and financial stability.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 29 2024 18:31 utc | 32"
I think you raise a valid argument here. The recent bond haircut reports cannot be anything but bad news for an essentially bankrupt state, and no matter how things are dressed up, lending money to Ukraine is not a viable thing anymore. The US has stepped out and expects the EU to take over, but the EU is out of cash. However I judge this might reinforce my prediction of a September timeline. It all just might co-incide within this time frame? Time will tell.
Posted by: marcjf | Jun 29 2024 18:57 utc | 40
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 29 2024 17:40 utc | 24:
"Putin's peace offer is leave all Donetsk/Lugansk administrational areas. Kherson and Zaporozhye too. And NATO out."
Not exactly. That's Putin's conditions for entering negotiations.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Jun 29 2024 19:04 utc | 41
However I judge this might reinforce my prediction of a September timeline. It all just might co-incide within this time frame? Time will tell.
Posted by: marcjf | Jun 29 2024 18:57 utc | 40
October, that was one of my extrapolations from WWI, but that would be rather inconvenient for team Biden.
Posted by: Newbie | Jun 29 2024 19:05 utc | 42
Does anyone have some detail on this Vovchansk stuff that Forbes is pushing? The whole story feels like spin to me but I haven't been hearing anything from MOA on this so I'm wondering what's going on.
Posted by: je | Jun 29 2024 19:14 utc | 43
Middle East Telegram channels are tonight reporting that Russia is moving weapons into Lebanon.
This comes just hours after the Arab League has voted to remove Hezbollah from the list of "Terrorist" organisations.
Also, the UK have been caught moving pet terrorist / MI6 trained militia into Lebanon via Cyprus.
Massive moves taking place in Lebanon by all players right now.
Is this how Russia will retaliate against the US - by supporting Hezbollah (from today no longer classed as Terrorist) to sink the US and UK navy in the Med?
Posted by: Raddar | Jun 29 2024 19:15 utc | 44
Posted by: Raddar | Jun 29 2024 19:15 utc | 44
The Gerald Ford carrier group and some US landing ships are supposedly around Israel. That's a lotta juicy targets to pay back Sevastopol and other earlier events in the Black Sea.
This is theoretical/speculation, but maybe Austin called RUMOD begging them not to sink that stuff.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 29 2024 19:18 utc | 45
At a meeting with senior Russian diplomats on June 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin put forward new terms for resolving the Ukraine conflict. These include pulling out Ukrainian troops from the four new Russian regions and lifting all Western sanctions on Russia. He also demanded that Kiev drop its bid for NATO membership and Ukraine’s non-aligned and non-nuclear status be enshrined. Putin also pointed out that if Ukraine and the West reject these terms, they may change in the future. Kiev quickly rejected this initiative. Russia has repeatedly dismissed the so-called Ukrainian peace formula as unacceptable. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said later that Kiev has been making statements on peace without taking account of the existing realities.
Posted by: AI | Jun 29 2024 19:18 utc | 46
Zelensky talks about peace at the same time the msm turns against Biden.
My take is that the US realizes they can't press gang enough Ukrainians to win the war against Russia in Ukraine.
Biden will not give up his long time gravy train, with 10% for the Big Guy.
I think they've decided to let Trump win this time, use him to pull out of Ukraine, and start their war with China, while continuing their lower level attempts to destabilize Russia through the stan's, and through sponsoring continuous terrorism.
Surely that'll go better.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Jun 29 2024 19:26 utc | 47
Posted by: je | Jun 29 2024 19:14 utc | 43
It’s Forbes, it’s David Axe, it’s not worth wasting time over it.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 29 2024 19:29 utc | 48
Question: Why didn’t the Russians build new homes for the 10 million ‘Russians’ living in Eastern Ukraine so they can be resettled in Russia and so avoid a costly destructive war? Oh because the Russians in Eastern Ukraine are fighting for their land, just like the Gazans - does the Russian leadership get this? This would a great idea if the Russians were building homes in Gaza for the Palestinians and then protecting those.
" “The Russian government will allocate 57.6 million rubles from the reserve fund for inter-budgetary transfers, ensuring reimbursement of expenses incurred by entities for the reception and accommodation of citizens from Palestine. This follows from a government decree published on the official portal of the Government of the Russian Federation on June 19”.
Such sudden activity of the Kremlin in this direction is not accidental, the Russian government, and in particular Putin, have long-standing excellent relations with the terrorist Netanyahu and his team. From the track record of these relations, we can recall the general anti-Iranian coordination in Syria. The Zionists are bombing, in response to air aggression, C-300 and C-400 are silent. In another area of common interests, the Zionists took a neutral side in the war between Russia and Ukraine, which greatly helped Putin, but now it’s time for the Kremlin to provide reciprocal assistance from long-time comrades. At first, the Russian Federation abstained from voting at the UN on the American resolution on the need for a ceasefire in Gaza, and then the Kremlin government decided to accept thousands of Palestinian refugees for resettlement in several regions of the country. "
+ Russia builds houses for Palestinian refugees +
https://www.rt.com/russia/600180-palestinians-grozny-chechnya-kadyrov/
Posted by: Brillo | Jun 29 2024 19:35 utc | 49
When Trump was POTUS, he hired the services of Mike Pompeo and John Bolton.
What could we expect if he gets the job back?
Posted by: scc | Jun 29 2024 19:35 utc | 50
"develop a detailed, clear plan" says it all.
A detailed plan is for show and delay, to be able to cause trouble.
Putins offer is simple and straightforward. Agree to that and the rest will work out.
My sense is that Putin has placed on the table absolute minimums that would be accepted. That to my view is to be honest and extend an open hand.
At least, that is how I have always approached negotiation. It often leads to surprises though, because many approach negotiation as a bargaining event, where they ask for much more than they expect and are just waiting to make concessions of own offer to convince the other of having reached a bargain. However they look on you as if you are up to the same, and will take liberties or basically insult your sincerity as part of their act.
All else aside, the west and Ukraine would have to be idiots to believe that they will be able to retake by force territory now held by Russia without taking unthinkable losses.
That is very simple to understand.
The rest is the cost of continuing or escalating the conflict.
No-one could put a price on just one life, for it is not theirs to value. Therefore those who bargain with the lives of others are false representatives. They are imposters and charlattans.
It is a shame to see so many in the west following their lead.
Posted by: Ornot | Jun 29 2024 19:37 utc | 51
Ahenobarbus @ 25
It's impossible to know where Trump's coming from, I don't think he even knows, he's scatterbrained, runs on instinct, in a younger man, in a nicer milieu you'd call him an airhead, and he always accommodates resistance, the art of the deal, lives to fight another day, not necessarily the best qualities in a statesman. He's worst quality comes from his Roy Cohn mentoring, that of always setting people against each other instead of bringing them together, the former a sign of the charlatan the latter an indicator of a statesman. Which is why at every offered opportunity he's unable to step into statesman's shoes and can only find big red clown shoes to fit.
My point is Trump can only run once this time, he goes in as a lame duck, he's free to say absolutely anything to get elected. My personal guess is he's running for personal payback, a vendetta against all those who didn't play by Marquess of Queensberry rules last time around. And, good for him, for the rest he'll just accommodate everything like before and not much good will come out of it for the country.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 29 2024 19:41 utc | 52
The comedian's term of office expired in May 2024.
Comic is not more president of Ukraine than I, except disabled US president Biden keeps him.
Posted by: paddy | Jun 29 2024 19:44 utc | 53
@4 micron
Re: shell production
"Ammo is flowing more and more. EU production is on track to reach 1 million shells this year, in a year they will reach parity with the Russian industry. This was pooh-poohed by the Z-crowd, but on the ground the signs are unmistakable and widely echoed by respected military analysts or bloggers."
Russian anual production is 4.5 million shells. Combined us and European production this year will be about 1.5 million.
The one million number your quoting is what europe said they would give ukraine in one year which includes third party purchases(ie buying old shells from African countries and re exporting purchased Serbian shells and so on)
I dunno about respected analysts but I got the numbers, so now I identify as an expert.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 29 2024 19:45 utc | 54
unimperator @ 45
I remember reading that the USA's stated policy is that they'll nuke anyone that sinks a carrier. Probably not true, a silly thing to commit to in an official state nuke policy, unless of course the attacker doesn't have nukes. Meh, I don't belive in nuke policies, once the first nuke flies the book goes out the window, as the great sage said, "everyone has a plan till they get punched in the face".
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 29 2024 19:51 utc | 55
@43 je
Re: volchansk
Russia kharkov group has about 45000 troops in it, and 15000 are fighting , with reserves and troops to rotate around as time goes on.
Ukraine pulled in 30000 troops and launched a counter offensive from liptsy and to clear volchansk.
Last I heard ukraine pulled 3 brigades out for refit due to losses. They have replaced those losses with mercenaries and new recruits. It's quite likely that Russia indeed has had a brigade of losses but from what I can tell it's a 3 to 1 loss ratio in their favor.
Interestingly it seems Russia may have found the end to their reserves as the offensive on toretsk has caught them without the usual flood of infantry they employ at every problem.
I expect that to stabilize then it'll be informative to see if one or two more gaps open up after they scrape together the forces to fill their defensive positions there.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 29 2024 19:56 utc | 56
They're not allowed to decide anything, and the US isn't going to make any change either until the next prez administration is in. And probably not after that, either - seriously, there is no even plan on the US side. And the plan on the Russian side is 'f### it, no use trying to be too clever any longer, we're going to demilitarize Ukraine the hard way'
Posted by: pxx | Jun 29 2024 19:56 utc | 57
" ・demilitarization (Assurances that Ukraine will never join NATO and assurances that NATO weapons will never be brought into Ukraine in the future.)
・denazification (Liberation of the Donbass region, where Azov neo-Nazis had been attacking Russian speakers ever since the Maidan revolution.)
Posted by: Nokaz | Jun 29 2024 17:44 utc | 27 "
Dont change the goalposts. Those werent the original stated goals of the SMO.
Posted by: Moonie | Jun 29 2024 19:58 utc | 58
@51
When will the US be trusted?
Its president cannot carry on in front of 'two minute delay' live TV!
Posted by: paddy | Jun 29 2024 20:01 utc | 59
Re The Gerald Ford.
Its current location is in its home port in the United States undergoing Maint. Which should last about a year before it can be deployed.
https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2024/06/19/a-look-at-where-the-navys-11-aircraft-carriers-are-now/
Posted by: goldigger | Jun 29 2024 20:04 utc | 60
Raddar @ 44
I'm not sure there's anyway for Israel to tackle southern Lebanon but to go in big, big arrow maneuvers to blitz the south while hitting the entire country with shock and awe to shut it down, they could do that for a few days then they'll be over extended and in deep shit, it already happened to them twice in Lebanon, and this time Hezbollah and Iran have been preparing for 20ys exactly for this. My guess is if Israel goes in the USA goes in with them and it's been approved in advance, coordinated with the IDF, and the Pentagon is at the ready. Not sure where this puts the Ruskies, but it's a clear part of the geopolitical struggle and they will be drawn in.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 29 2024 20:06 utc | 61
@43 je Re: volchansk
I haven't seen anything about it at Intel Slava Z. They're usually up front about set backs. Latest there from today is fab3000 strike vid:
https://t.me/intelslava/62404
Gooing, everything is Ume & western media repeating the same story from a single blogger. The video looks realistic, but who's to say it isn't a Ukie false claim? Wouldn't be the 1st time
Posted by: Mary | Jun 29 2024 20:10 utc | 62
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 29 2024 20:06 utc | 61
If Hezbollah are anything like Houthis, they will have most of their heavy stuff and missile launchers in tunnels, mostly hidden and untouchable for Israel. Then Israel will mostly resort to bombing cities. Netanyahu said they will do to Beirut what they did to Gaza.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 29 2024 20:10 utc | 63
When Trump was POTUS, he hired the services of Mike Pompeo and John Bolton.
What could we expect if he gets the job back?
Posted by: scc | Jun 29 2024 19:35 utc | 50
I've been promoting the following thought experiment for several decades now to explain why I don't vote in presidential elections. Nobody has so far risen to the challenge:
Imagine that you have just become President of the United States. Now create a list of real human being (and not your mom) to nominate for cabinet positions and agency heads. Now explain A) why those people would be better than the last bunch; and B) the process, in detail, of having them confirmed by the Senate that can reasonably be assumed to exist at the time.
The American system of 'checks and balances' works to enforce the class dictatorship of the bourgeoisie. Nobody you would want to see in office can pass through the filters.
Posted by: Honzo | Jun 29 2024 20:11 utc | 64
Oh, and war in Lebanon will draw all eyes away from Gaza, it's been beyond heinous in the limelight, imagine what's planned for in the shadows.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 29 2024 20:11 utc | 66
My point is Trump can only run once this time, he goes in as a lame duck, he's free to say absolutely anything to get elected. My personal guess is he's running for personal payback, a vendetta against all those who didn't play by Marquess of Queensberry rules last time around. And, good for him, for the rest he'll just accommodate everything like before and not much good will come out of it for the country.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 29 2024 19:41 utc | 52
Al true, but some of his many anti war comments on the 2016 campaign trail sounded somewhat sincere, from a conservative nationalist perspective, of course.
But, I get it. He's got no answers to the complex problems, his status as a billionaire certainly undermines ant hope he'll really do anything for working people and he's so ziophillic he's happy to support the genocide.
Nonetheless, the Dems are in my estimate a much more dangerous party at this stage of history. All that lesser evil stuff is bullshit today.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 29 2024 20:17 utc | 67
Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 29 2024 18:39 utc | 35
Try a home flavoured vodka - chilli, garlic, black pepper and a smokey honey. Served ice cold. It warms the soul when even everything else looks like shit!
Posted by: Peter Williams | Jun 29 2024 20:19 utc | 68
It is very important for us to show an end-of-war plan that will be supported bythe majority of the worldRussia.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 29 2024 20:20 utc | 69
Ahenobarbus @ 67
All that lesser evil stuff is bullshit today.
The evil is high fiving each other.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 29 2024 20:20 utc | 70
Does anyone have some detail on this Vovchansk stuff that Forbes is pushing? The whole story feels like spin to me but I haven't been hearing anything from MOA on this so I'm wondering what's going on.Posted by: je | Jun 29 2024 19:14 utc | 43
Re. Vovchansk.
Dima on MS explained it in a earlier video.
Vovchansk op began in May 20th.
UKR lines in Volchansk were so non-existent and sporadic that RUAF sent a small amount of troops to occupy the Vovchansk aggregate plant past AFU, who didn't notice. They took about 2 weeks to notice when they temporarily surrounded the plant. There were like 30 soldiers.
The most recent update indicates RUAF controls the aggregate plant, and blockades the Citadel of Volchansk, controlled by AFU from the south, west and north.
So 30 Russian troops have been holding the aggregate plant, or at least most of it, irritating AFU efforts in this area and hold of the Citadel. Now the area should be consolidated and the Citadel is reduced to rubble with FABs.
David Axe is talking about a 'brigade', implying RUAF lost 'several thousand' troops in this minor temporary encirclement. David Axe is literally exaggerating things by approximately 100x.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 29 2024 20:23 utc | 71
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 29 2024 20:20 utc | 70
###########
There is a third way (to politics, evil, darkness, etc) but many people would rather remain miserable than change their minds.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 29 2024 20:23 utc | 72
Posted by: marcjf | Jun 29 2024 18:07 utc | 30
Amazing numbers. What is the tooth to tail ratio on the Ukrainian side?
Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 29 2024 20:44 utc | 73
Is Berdychi Bob missing in action today? He‘s usually quick to pipe up in Ukraine threads, with detailed “analysis” of how few mm² of territory Russia has gained, how everything is muh stalemate, completely ignoring the wider political, economic and financial abyss that is gazing back into Ukraine.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 29 2024 21:02 utc | 74
Zelensky visiting soldiers in Donetsk. Russia will never win the way if it can't push Ukrainian forces out of the Donbass. It is going on 2.5 years.
Posted by: MiniMO | Jun 29 2024 21:09 utc | 75
unimperator @ 71
David Axe is talking about a 'brigade', implying RUAF lost 'several thousand' troops in this minor temporary encirclement. David Axe is literally exaggerating things by approximately 100x.
I read that too on TG, was initially worried but then the silly numbers started getting touted, it's the same human waves stuff that the western bs machine just can't let go of. Until now RFAF has pulled back when encountering too much resistance and then gone into meat grinder mode, rinse and repeat. I don't think that's changed, everywhere you look no big arrow assaults, they are clearly still on active defense. But, they certainly want to maintain momentum so they might be taking bigger risks and more casualties but even losing 2-3 squads a day for a month in Volchansk which is unlikely doesn't get close to a brigade. They are dropping a ton of FABs too which tells you there aren't a lot of Russians there.
Another thing is that it's wall to wall drones filming everything now, UKR social media relishes gore, if they were killing Russians wholesale in Volchansk it would blazoned across their social media. I haven't checked sites like DeepState in a while though. One thing is sure, RuMoD won't put out bad news. Conclusion, it's not going great but it'll be fine. For now the only thing the AFU can break through to is a wall of FABS.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 29 2024 21:11 utc | 76
I'm not sure there's anyway for Israel to tackle southern Lebanon but to go in big, big arrow maneuvers to blitz the south while hitting the entire country with shock and awe to shut it down, they could do that for a few days then they'll be over extended and in deep shit, it already happened to them twice in Lebanon
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 29 2024 20:06 utc | 61
Combining the fascinating discussion a few days back on 'neutron' weapons, the IAF's likely possession of them and the IAF's leaderships' description of Hell on Earth in Southern Lebanon SL leads one inevitably to the conclusion that the IAF plan to lay waste to SL in order to avoid the same resuklts as last time.
God help us if they do.
Posted by: JohninMK | Jun 29 2024 21:16 utc | 77
@Micron | Sat, 29 Jun 2024 16:46:00 GMT | 4
Ammo is flowing more and more. EU production is on track to reach 1 million shells this year, in a year they will reach parity with the Russian industry.
No they won't. Russia can produce five million shells a year now, plus they have access to North Korean ammunition - another five million shells. In the future they will ramp up production. Russia will always have an advantage in ammunition.
Posted by: James M. | Jun 29 2024 21:17 utc | 78
I wonder who is picking up the tab for that expensive peace summit in Switzerland. Maybe de facto usurper / dictator Zelensky and the EU can find a way of using Russian assets frozen in EU banks to pay for this jaunt so President Zippy doesn't have to sell one of his personal retirement villas in Miami, Tel Aviv or Liguria in Italy to raise the money.
The next peace summit might be held somewhere a little cheaper than Switzerland. With Kaja Kallas replacing Josep Borrell as EU's head diplomat, perhaps she can offer Tallinn as the next venue on the cheap.
Posted by: Refinnejenna | Jun 29 2024 21:27 utc | 79
@Nokaz | Sat, 29 Jun 2024 17:44:00 GMT | 27
・demilitarization (Assurances that Ukraine will never join NATO and assurances that NATO weapons will never be brought into Ukraine in the future.)
・denazification (Liberation of the Donbass region, where Azov neo-Nazis had been attacking Russian speakers ever since the Maidan revolution.)
Yup, this is the minimum for Russia to negotiate a peace. Also probably going to have to keep the border areas sanitized, so a de-militarized zone of some kind around Belgorod and other border points is needed. And Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts will be annexed by Russia with the Donbas.
Ukraine, in return, keeps Odessa, Kharkiv, Kiev, and thus its sovereignty and access to the Black Sea. It's the best deal Ukraine is going to get.
Posted by: James M. | Jun 29 2024 21:28 utc | 80
Micron @ 4, James M @ 78:
All the Russians need to know and do is find out where all this EU-produced ammunition will be stored in Ukraine and what routes will be used to transport the ammo from the EU into the warehouses - and they can act on that information accordingly.
Posted by: Refinnejenna | Jun 29 2024 21:34 utc | 81
CJ Hopkins - from the Previous Thread - also lives in Germany CLASS...
but I am not sure its that bad, from what I can see - All The Elites are complete Morons
Whilst the vast majority of the human race, can't write as well as CJ, but are quite like me.. Normal
At the age of 3, I knew exactly what I wanted when I grew up. I had fallen in love with my 2 year old girlfriend. Her parents took her away to Australia, and I never saw her again.
So I had to start again.
She looks and is almost exactly like my wife.
How did you boys do, going to all boys schools?
From what I can see, our 3 grandkids are much the same.
The evil old cnts in control won't last - they are currently in a process of self destruction
No animal or human species can last that long when they are all up their own arseholes - no matter how powerful or rich they feel
There is Life Outside
Posted by: tonyopmoc | Jun 29 2024 21:42 utc | 82
Question: Why didn’t the Russians build new homes for the 10 million ‘Russians’ living in Eastern Ukraine so they can be resettled in Russia and so avoid a costly destructive war? Oh because the Russians in Eastern Ukraine are fighting for their land, just like the Gazans
@Posted by: Brillo | Jun 29 2024 19:35 utc | 49
The Donbas (now Donbas, Russia) has a gas field(s) 70 times as big as the one offshore from Gaza.
That is from publicly available estimates.
One can see many reasons why they would underestimate the Gazan field (cheat the Palestinians for one; not give the international community another
reason to suspect Israel's motives; ...). And reasons why the Donbas field would be overestimated (draw investors in and also scam investors).
Still, both fields, according to public information, are tiny compared to some other fields in the world.
Posted by: librul | Jun 29 2024 21:44 utc | 83
The arrogance and the stupidity of the colonizing west is to have a peace conference without inviting all the concerned parties like they did recently, how the hell expect to have a peace without the other country involving in the war and winning .
Good luck to them , they can meet , discuss and decide but no way the other party will accept .
They did this in Syria many years ago , the met as friends of Syria , friends like this we do not need , I hate to hear the enemy .
No way they will be able to concur Syria .
Shame on them , they are creating enemies all over the world .
Posted by: Bobby | Jun 29 2024 22:27 utc | 84
don't recall ever hearing the term "foaming the runway" before. sounds about right.
so, interesting timing, biden's speech and all. zelensky can see the writing on the wall. by the end of the year means after the US election. i'm sorry, this is unimpressive to the max. what position does zelensky think he's in? if he has a plan he should cough it up. '6 months from now' yada yada, another Friedman unit.
Posted by: annie | Jun 29 2024 22:28 utc | 85
It took me (well almost on the first day)...I did go back to my Flash Course on the Other Side of London when 9/11 hit...I just wanted to tart the intranet thing I was sort of writing from raw HTML, for my job -as my British Employer was paying my Salary,,and also expenses..and had for many years to educate me to do my job...
So I spoke to my Lecturer about how absolutely Everything had Changed - and he empathised with me...
It took me, another 18 months to "come out" about 9/11
I told everyone at work - just look at this - the Official Story is completely Impossible - It Defies the most basic laws of physics and maths, whicjh I learnt in a year at University...
They all said, I was having a Nervous Breakdown, so I kept my gob shut, except on the Internet I had two young kids and my wife earning pin money as a Child Minder
They denigrated me at work..Instead of Promotion I got the exact Opposite..
I was just a bloke from Manchester working in London as a Pricipal Information Technology Analyst - And Determined to Leave.
I am glad that Julian Assange is Free...He is My Hero, cos they did Torture him as an Example to The Human Race, for Telling The Truth as Best as He could, and getting Serially Betrayed along the way - Most Abominaly By The Guardian
He was by far the most intelligent...
Why Did He Not Tell The Truth About 9/11??
Maybe just a Stage Play to be almost Executed For Real For The Satisfaction of the CIA
I would love to meet him
No one I have ever met, has so much COURAGE
He told the Truth about Everything Else
Good Man
Posted by: tonyopmoc | Jun 29 2024 22:34 utc | 86
Now I do think and am on record as saying western intelligence agencies and hence western leadership are misguided about the facts on the ground.
Posted by: marcjf | Jun 29 2024 18:07 utc | 30
----------------------------------------------
I am on record for repeatedly saying that you cannot fool US DIA. What they are allowed to brief up the chain is a different story.
There are a lot of naked emperors in the higher circles of what passes for leadership across NATO.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jun 29 2024 22:41 utc | 88
Any negotiations and the subsequent peace with Russia are unimaginable for the collective West.
Their hubris is pushing them to attack.
Posted by: vargas | Jun 29 2024 22:49 utc | 89
@Acco Hengst | Sat, 29 Jun 2024 22:41:00 GMT | 88
I am on record for repeatedly saying that you cannot fool US DIA. What they are allowed to brief up the chain is a different story.
So the Defense Intelligence Agency is infallible? I don't think so. Keep in mind that about 85-88 percent of all intelligence gathered is OSINT, the other 12-15 percent is only as good as its source. So bad data in means bad analysis. See: Iraq war and WMDs/Curveball, for reference.
Posted by: James M. | Jun 29 2024 22:59 utc | 90
I couldn't possibly have a nicer wife...we met when we were like children--never been to a festival or campimg before...She says come with me - you have got a car - and borrowed her sisters Play tent...
We have travelled all over the World since - sometimes hitch hiking in foreign lands when hardly anyone spoke much English, but recognised our smiles
Posted by: tonyopmoc | Jun 29 2024 23:10 utc | 91
There is a claim via France that an F-16 was used for the first time in Ukraine
Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 29 2024 23:50 utc | 92
I trust Zelensky d Ermak to be very cunning. They send untraibed recruits to the frontline to increase the casualty count and then play the lame duck script in the media to get more assistance from the West. Their mindset remains unchanged by the war: the cleansing of ethnic Russians from the territory and the full control of the Black Sea. Those objectives match those of the Western elites. If Micron #4 is right Zelensky's job is now to buy time for NATO to increase arm production and slowly, incrementally send troops in Ukraine and eventually go on the offensive. Talking about peace negotiations while shelling civilian residential areas is just empty talk.
Posted by: Richard L | Jun 29 2024 23:57 utc | 93
To be technically correct, Zelensky's law says it is illegal to negotiate with Vladimir Putin, not Russia. But since Putin remains in power (and could legally serve until 2036 if he co ti ued to get re-elected) it's an irrelevant difference at the moment.
https://nypost.com/2022/10/04/zelensky-signs-law-declaring-talks-with-putin-impossible/
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky seemingly shut the door on the prospect of having any peace talks with Vladimir Putin — but not with Russia under a different leadership.
Zelensky signed a decree on Tuesday formally declaring negotiations with the Kremlin autocrat to be “impossible.”
Posted by: Cheney | Jun 30 2024 0:02 utc | 94
@ James M. | Jun 29 2024 22:59 utc | 90
> So bad data in means bad analysis. See: Iraq war and WMDs/Curveball, for reference.
The media peeled off that layer of the onion of lies for us. Would you like to peel off a layer for yourself?
Posted by: despondent | Jun 30 2024 0:09 utc | 95
Israel's Ukrainian Nazism will be defeated and Ukraine's Israeli Nazism will be defeated. Victory will be celebrated by Israeli Ukrainian Nazism's main enemies, who are BRICS and Islam.
I'd word it differently to Tony Opmoc. Allah Kareem.
Posted by: Giyane | Jun 30 2024 0:57 utc | 96
To be technically correct, Zelensky's law says it is illegal to negotiate with Vladimir Putin, not Russia. But since Putin remains in power (and could legally serve until 2036 if he co ti ued to get re-elected) it's an irrelevant difference at the moment.
https://nypost.com/2022/10/04/zelensky-signs-law-declaring-talks-with-putin-impossible/
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky seemingly shut the door on the prospect of having any peace talks with Vladimir Putin — but not with Russia under a different leadership.
Zelensky signed a decree on Tuesday formally declaring negotiations with the Kremlin autocrat to be “impossible.”
Posted by: Cheney | Jun 30 2024 0:02 utc | 94
------------------
Ukie "law" is a joke, they'll work around it. Or be regime changed themselves, after losing the war...
Posted by: Urban Fox | Jun 30 2024 0:57 utc | 97
Biden's cognitive impairment is the main reason for prolonged conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, Red Sea, etc. He's unable to make the right decision.
US nuclear missiles are launched by the order of the president and there's no second approval needed. Horrifying.
Posted by: Jason | Jun 30 2024 0:58 utc | 98
> Posted by: Brillo | Jun 29 2024 19:35 utc | 49
"Question: Why didn’t the Russians build new homes for the 10 million ‘Russians’ living in Eastern Ukraine so they can be resettled in Russia and so avoid a costly destructive war? Oh because the Russians in Eastern Ukraine are fighting for their land, just like the Gazans - does the Russian leadership get this? This would a great idea if the Russians were building homes in Gaza for the Palestinians and then protecting those."
Donetsk city is under constant indiscriminate shelling for 10 years now. How does building homes solves ethnic cleansing designs by Kiev Nazi regime? I can't decide whether you're genuine moron or just a low-effort troll. Russia repeatedly offered peace, including Minsk Agreements, terms of which would've allowed entire Donbass region to remain Ukrainian. Same Minsk Agreements which were publicly exposed as a ruse to buy time to rearm Ukraine by French and German leadership. This fact alone refutes your theory of land grab. If you don't know this by know, congratulations, you're MSM consuming, ignorant moron.
Russia have enough land as it is, look at the map. What it needs is security. We see how Ukrainians 'fighting for their land' by being kidnapped off the streets and press-ganged into service. It doesn't matter either way, Ukrainian nation is dead, demographically. Younger refugees in time will become Europeans. In a generation, there will be just a few million of Ukrainians left, not enough to threaten Russia ever again. They chose this outcome, not Russia.
Posted by: taukey | Jun 30 2024 1:12 utc | 99
Negotiations are a talking point. Moscow knows that it doesn't have anyone it can negotiate with.
I'm not talking about Zelensky. I am talking about how the Germans and French did them dirty over the Minsk Accords. In 9 months the Americans will have a new puppet President (pick one) but the same neoconservative bureaucracy.
The West has nothing it can say that will move Putin one inch. All of the people who like to complain about Putin's leadership aren't reading and listening to everything he says. Putin told them, withdraw your support and we will end the war. That's the negotiation.
Surrender and we will stop beating you.
Don't surrender and we will do it the long way.
The Russians know that they will probably have to win outright. Hence why VVP has recruited the DPRK's military-industrial complex. It's about a bigger and persisting war against NATO. He cannot let his guard down for one moment because even if a vassal brings in new leadership (say France, or Germany), the entrenched bureaucracies (the dead hand on government) will persist. Western democracy is incapable of yielding any fundamental policy changes.
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 30 2024 1:13 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Thanks for the posting b.
I continue to posit that Ukraine is going to fall before the US (s)election. And along with it, empire.
That or extinction because the elite are poor losers.
What Z is doing is foaming the runway.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 29 2024 16:40 utc | 1