Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 25, 2024

Ukraine SitRep: State And Military Continue to Deteriorate

The Ukrainian state and its military are falling apart.

Under the new mobilization law the Ukrainian military is said to recruit/mobilize some 5,000 men per day. This is sufficient to replace current losses which are above 2,000 men per day. But the quality and level of training the new forces have is way below the level needed to survive on the frontline.

Losses are high because the mass use of Russian FAB glide-bombs is eliminating all identified agglomeration of forces. Ukraine has found no way to counter these.

For lack of armored vehicles several of the new brigades which were supposed to be mechanized will be pure infantry forces. They will be able to hold positions until they are bombed but will not have the means to attack.

The high rate of mobilization has led to a lack of men power in the rest of the society. Agricultural and industrial productions are down. People who can afford to do so avoid taking jobs for fear of being identified for military service. Others attempt to flee abroad (machine translation):

In the Odessa region, an attempt to illegally travel abroad was stopped by 100 men at once. They had to cross the border on foot and paid from 5 to 18,5 thousand dollars for this.

This is reported by the State Bureau of Investigation.

In revenge for Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure the Russian forces continue to dismantle Ukraine's capacities. The electricity network is on the verge of falling apart. Electricity is only available for 10 hours per day. A few Russian hits on those switching stations which receive supply from Europe could finish it off.

The Ukrainian state is bankrupt:

Figures vary, and the Ukrainian government is increasingly coy about releasing economic data sets, but the Ukraine’s economy is currently around $180-190bn in size. To put that into context, that is around 11 times smaller than Russia’s economy and 131 times smaller than the US economy.
...
According to politico, Ukraine borrowed $58bn in 2022, $46bn in 2023 and is set to borrow $52bn in 2024. So, in just three years, Ukraine will have borrowed 82% of GDP.

Ukraine needs to borrow this much because its government spends almost twice as much each year as it receives in income from taxation and other sources.

The Central Bank of Ukraine is trying to help by devaluating its currency. Over the last six month it lost about 10% of its value. The further 'printing' of money, which will heat up inflation, is expected.

Private lenders continue to ask for repayments of loans:

Ukraine has suffered a setback in its quest to complete the outline of a debt restructuring before the end-of-August expiry of a two-year payment freeze agreed by private holders of near $20 billion in outstanding international bonds.

The government announced on Monday it had not reached agreement with a group of bondholders, raising the specter that the war-torn country might slip into default.

The blame game for the worsening of Ukraine's military positions is costing the jobs of more commanders (machine translation):

Against the background of the continuing difficult situation for Ukraine at the front, public criticism of the AFU command is growing.

MP Mariana Bezuglaya again spoke out against Commander-in-Chief Syrsky. She said that after receiving his position, he could not "go beyond" outdated management methods and became "even more authoritarian".

"In this stressful situation, against the background of this huge responsibility, he has become even more authoritarian, increasingly tightening the screws and returning to the so - called classic techniques of the Soviet army," Bezuglaya said in an interview with journalist Natalia Moseychuk.

She bases her opinion on messages that come to her from the military.

Recall that the People's Deputy began to actively "wet" the commander-in-chief, as she had previously done with Zaluzhny, who was later dismissed.

However, in addition to Syrsky, she criticizes much harsher Yuriy Sodol is the commander of the Joint Forces and the Khortytsia group, which operates in the Pokrovsky direction (where the AFU has been losing ground most actively in recent months).

A number of activists like Serhiy Sternenko are also in solidarity with Bezugla in their antipathy to the general.

And yesterday the campaign against Sodol was joined by the chief of staff of" Azov " Bogdan Krotevich. He said that he had filed an application with the State Bureau of Investigation against the Ukrainian general for committing "war crimes".

Yesterday evening Sodol was replaced by a former leader of the 36th Marine Brigade who's track record is in no way better that Sodol's.

Syrski will be the next to fall.

The Russian forces now have the men and equipment to largely overrun the Ukrainian lines. But doing so would cost a significant amount of casualties. They are therefore just waiting for the Ukrainian army to exhaust itself and to fall by its own means. Only after a large scale breakdown of Ukrainian defenses will the order be given to proceed.

 

Posted by b on June 25, 2024 at 11:26 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Excellent analysis, b, thanks

Posted by: canuck | Jun 25 2024 11:46 utc | 1

Pretty much on the money.
Patience!

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jun 25 2024 11:50 utc | 2

5,000 men mobilized a day is insane and puts Ukraine well above replacement level for force generation. It also suggests that Ukrainian society is nowhere near exhausted with the war. If mobilization at something like this rate continues for a few months, Russia will once again be outnumbered in the war. The fact that English-language pro-Z takes RuMOD numbers on Ukrainian casualties as some sort of bottom is hilarious, there is no military on earth that wouldn’t exaggerate enemy casualties.

Putin is just a weird guy, there are steps he could take to presumably finish off Ukraine well short of tactical nukes, like for example actually hitting electricity transmission lines from Europe, not just have rando telegram bloggers talk about it but actually do it. He could shut down shipping out of Odessa which would also prevent a lot of strikes on Crimea that hide behind the port and shipping industry. He could, I don’t know, use Russia’s 5x population advantage over Ukraine to mobilize for real and end the war through huge infantry overmatch, something I think just about any other leader of any other state in this sort of war with this sort of population and MIC advantage would do.

Yet he is like a gamer trying to do the most difficult play through possible as some sort of achievement. Of course this leads to all sorts of conspiracy theories from otherwise sane pro-Z people. I don’t think he’s “compromised”, just weird. That Covid isolation protocols he went through for a few years seems to have done something to his mental health

Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Jun 25 2024 11:59 utc | 3

Good to see MOA back in full swing, hoping B is continuing to recover well.
My guess is Russia pushing forward slowly on all many fronts at anyone time, and the Ukrainians collapsing incrementally at an increasing rate until we see an Afghanistan 2021 style flop.

Posted by: Truthsayer | Jun 25 2024 12:17 utc | 4

re Chessmaster Z | Jun 25 2024 11:59 utc | 3

I see we have our latest entrant in the “Yay invincible Volkssturm!” contest, as well as the “Putin is dying of three cancers, herpes, and bunions” contest.

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 25 2024 12:19 utc | 5

5k a day but what quality? Seeing video of captured 53 year old ukrainian woman soldier. Not sure how that soldier faces off against younger men . But I guess everyone is equal under artillery.

Chessmaster z and a pigeon played a game together.

Posted by: Hankster | Jun 25 2024 12:20 utc | 6

It also suggests that Ukrainian society is nowhere near exhausted with the war.

"Force generation" LMAO. No, it just means they're forcibly grabbing everybody that can fog a mirror and ensuring them a FABulously short lifespan. Furthermore Ukraine MOD grossly exaggerates everything in their favor by 5x which likely means they're maybe getting 1K/mo.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jun 25 2024 12:21 utc | 7

5K a day? Sez who, because I believe absolutely nothing that comes out of Ukraine. Every day? Even if 404 managed to get 5K on a good day, there is no way they can sustain that number. This is a country that is mining its borders to prevent men from escaping. EU values in action. Economically and militarily Ukraine is a dead country walking, propped up by the US.

Posted by: Mike R | Jun 25 2024 12:31 utc | 8

But my favorite part of this whole SMO is how partnership without limits China is literally Ukraine’s most important weapons provider. More than Himars, more than Atacs, it is modified Chinese-made FPV drones that are keeping Ukraine right in this fight, and fragging hapless Russian soldiers countless times a week. Russia’s strongest ally is also Ukraine’s most important source of weapons, you couldn’t make that up if you tried. BRICS for the win!

Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Jun 25 2024 12:34 utc | 9

When the last Ukrainian dies, who turns off the lights? Surely not Russia. Any idea how many dead Crimeans there might be should Russian AD fail worse than it does. With dominance in most areas, Russia still refuses to address the Elephants in the pen, instead choosing to kill the easy game. Rockin' in the Free World.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 25 2024 12:35 utc | 10

Wars are won on the battlefield and loosed in the rear. Russia don't need to win this war, it just need the degenerate West to loose it. Preferably before the US elections.
The recent US escalation by authorizing terrorism against Russia will backfire on them... on Banderistan rear.
Kokhols have assembled a partisan army in their rear by closing the borders. Russian were reluctant to arm those guys until now, they know partisan movement are an armed and powerful faction when war are over and it's a recipe for the next civil war to start.
The DoS "madmen in the basement" played the ISIS-K terrorist card ... they won't love the uno-reverse card. TCC guys and barrier battalions now have a big target painted on their back. They will be hunted. And as they won't manage their quotas , they will be the next cannon fodder sent on the line sooner than expected.
That will lead to a shitload of non-surmountable problems for Kiev. And a US president on campaign can't send US boot on the ground even to restore "order" in a now deeply hostile proxy country ; this is political suicide. Also I doubt it's Biden's biggest concern right now...

Posted by: Savonarole | Jun 25 2024 12:47 utc | 11

A ~$180 billion Ukraine economy? About the same size as the state of Arkansas.

Posted by: Stronitium-90 | Jun 25 2024 12:53 utc | 12

Ukrainian authorities announce mandatory evacuation in the city of Toretsk in Donbass.

Vadim Filashkin, the head of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration appointed by Kiev, said on the air of a national telethon.

“Now the evacuation will take place in a very forced manner from the city of Toretsk <...>. In addition, the evacuation from other cities on the front line continues,”

According to Filashkin, as of June 21, about six thousand people remained in Toretsk, now there are about five and a half thousand - the population is leaving the city every day.

Ukrainian authorities regularly announce forced evacuations in different regions. For example, children and elderly people were taken out of Avdeevka , but some residents categorically refused to leave.

In addition, people are being evacuated in the Kharkov and Sumy regions; almost all residents have left some areas.

Toretsk is a city in the territory of the DPR controlled by Kiev, between Gorlovka and Konstantinovka.

Last week, adviser to the head of the DPR, Igor Kimakovsky, said that Russian troops took several heights in the Toretsky and Pokrovsky directions, which makes it possible to carry out not only tactical, but also operational-tactical measures in this area.

Posted by: guest | Jun 25 2024 12:58 utc | 13

"Under the new mobilization law the Ukrainian military is said to recruit/mobilize some 5,000 men per day. This is sufficient to replace current losses which are above 2,000 men per day. "

Posted by b on June 25, 2024 at 11:26 UTC | Permalink

Might , just the first few days, a month tops. They are bringing in from a much smaller and less motivated pool.

Even when things were going well I would say that, on average, they achieved a third of that in average.

And that's the 1.400.000 they lost so far.

Just ignore the numbers and take the shape and proportions. They are taking from 1/7 th of the previous available tranches, and that particular age group has half the average weight. so 1/14th means 100.000 if they are lucky.

Same goes for the next one if they go to 18 or even 16.

https://www.populationpyramid.net/ukraine/2024/

I would say that those 100.000/200.000 can barely cover those who are recoverable wounded while they are ou of service, and do nothing for the constant drain of irrecoverable losses.

Posted by: Newbie | Jun 25 2024 13:03 utc | 14

I see that Johnson is spitting out that Ukraine voted overwhelmingly in 1991 to be independent so russia should get out, forgetting that the trouble started in 2014 when the western countries bankrolled a violent overthrow of the democratically elected government because it wanted friendly relations with russia. That kind of makes his point irrelevant.

Posted by: Oh | Jun 25 2024 13:03 utc | 15

How does an economy function at all if men are kidnapped and sent off to almost certain death everyday? Farms? Offices? Factories? Construction sites are full of fit guys. 5K a day? Is there any support for this number? A rifle and some ammo against armor and glide bombs?

MoD is now reporting a bit over 2K per day in dead Ukrainians. This is consistent with the masses of artillery and lack of Ukr. air cover. And it may actually be conservative considering the bombs now being used.

How many lives could be saved if Zelensky was gone?

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 25 2024 13:05 utc | 16

[email protected] barrier battalions were an issue, it doesn't look good to try and find them now, like top leaders, politicians, generals which should have been primary targets, were not. Even Zman got a free pass to do battlefield promotional tours. Still does, not just pickin' his nose, but flinging boogers at Russia. Lots of excuses from the Russophiles for the laxidaizical approach to the SMO, muh attritin', but who knew, other than Pergozian, that the MOD was rife with so much
corruption.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 25 2024 13:06 utc | 17

The Russian army is suffering significant losses right now. The situation doesn't seem likely to change in the near future. So if the Russian army really could overrun the lines it looks odd that it doesn't do so, instead waiting for a collapse that this website has insisted it's imminent for nearly two years. Besides, Putin has made clear that high Russian casualties is a core feature of this "traditional Russian" strategy. So why should they care about high casualties now?

Posted by: Inka | Jun 25 2024 13:12 utc | 18

Signs of over extension of US oligarchy are everywhere you look at home and abroad.
Thoughtful people could see the danger of forcing the largest country with the most natural resources together with the world's most populous country. That combination is unstoppable. FYI, China produces 10X more steel than the US.
It all comes down to the well educated who out of greed have set fire to their own barn and starved the horse that pulls the cart.
I don't see people getting any happier about the situation here at home. Trump was the first revolt. There will be another.
$7.25/hr.

Posted by: Rabbit | Jun 25 2024 13:21 utc | 19

...other than Pergozian, that the MOD was rife with so much
corruption.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 25 2024 13:06 utc | 17

Everybody? Both RF and China had to play the game until recently. RF was full of grift and China of compromised officers/spies .In both cases oligarchic classes were also starting to feel they could run the show.

But little could be made until there was a justifiable reason for rocking the boat. The west was kind enough to provide one.

At least that's how I see it.

Posted by: Newbie | Jun 25 2024 13:21 utc | 20

I don’t discount the possibility that Ukraine will collapse, next month, six months later, two years later. It’s definitely possible, if Ukraine wasn’t taking heavy losses, they wouldn’t be mobilizing like they are now. But RuMOD numbers are obvious exaggerations. I don’t even blame RuMOD, I would blame them if they didn’t exaggerate enemy casualties. That’s what every military in the history of the world has done.

However, Russians are also taking very significant losses. No one on the Russian-speaking pro-Z side takes the 5x or 10x casualty disparity claims seriously. Maybe more like 2x or 3x. Again, of course the official Russian side will exaggerate enemy losses and try to minimize their own losses. Also, given the widespread belief and justification in Russia that this war is partly to save “Russians”, meaning Russian-speakers living in Ukraine, it seems a strange way to save people by running a war that can only succeed if you kill or maim every able bodied man on the other side.

Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Jun 25 2024 13:27 utc | 21

Am I alone in being worried sick. That this conflict could escalate to nuclear weapons being used.
There's total denial of discussion by the western msm of the possibility.
It's all free world blah,blah v evil Putin.
And that is the level of delusional analysis bar site's such as this.

Posted by: jpc | Jun 25 2024 13:27 utc | 22

Any other reports or confirmation?

Пошли сообщения, что БПЛА MQ-9 Reaper или RQ-4B Global Hawk был сбит истребителем МиГ-31 над Черном море, но это не подтверждено.

MQ-9 уже был сбит, и это не помогло. Именно Global Hawk пришлось сбить, потому что именно им обычно осуществляется комплексная разведка и уточнение целей на конечном участке внутри России, на расстоянии до сотен километров.

From https://t.me/infantmilitario/129654 Google translated

There have been reports that an MQ-9 Reaper or RQ-4B Global Hawk UAV was shot down by a MiG-31 fighter over the Black Sea, but this has not been confirmed.

The MQ-9 had already been shot down and that didn't help. It was the Global Hawk that had to be shot down, because it is the one that usually carries out complex reconnaissance and clarification of targets in the final area inside Russia, at a distance of up to hundreds of kilometers.

Posted by: Merv Ritchie | Jun 25 2024 13:31 utc | 23

The frenemy of my frenemy is my frenemy?

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/114374

(today)

German opposition calls on Ukraine for peace talks – The Times

CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who had previously advocated increasing military assistance to Kiev, sharply changed his attitude and now believes that the time has come to focus on ending the conflict.

The candidate for the post of Chancellor of Germany directly stated that the time has come to sign a peace treaty with Russia on Ukraine, the material says.

Previously, Merz insisted on supplying Taurus long-range cruise missiles to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

@Slavyangrad

https://theloadstar.com/maersk-launches-first-deepsea-container-service-into-ukraine-since-invasion/

(4 weeks ago)

News / Maersk launches first deepsea container service into Ukraine since invasion

Maersk has launched the first deepsea container service in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion led to the withdrawal of box ships by the major carriers.

Part of a collaboration with Ukrainian feeder operator Iteris, the service is utilising a 1,100+ teu vessel to connect Ukraine’s deepsea port of Chornomorsk (Odessa region) with Romania’s Constanta container terminal.

Odessa-based consultancy Informall BG’s Daniil Melnychenko told The Loadstar: “In April, Iteris and Maersk were in the process of bringing empty containers for the exporters and shipping full cargo containers to Constanta for transhipment. Arkas, CMA CGM, Evergreen and MSC are sharing the space on the service.”

https://www.marineinsight.com/shipping-news/shipping-giants-hapag-lloyd-maersk-resume-services-to-ukraines-black-sea-ports/

(3 weeks ago)

Shipping Giants Hapag-Lloyd & Maersk Resume Services To Ukraine’s Black Sea Ports

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have restarted their services to Ukraine’s key Black Sea ports since the Russian invasion.

Hapag-Lloyd has started a sea shuttle service between Constanta and Chernomorsk, while Maersk, in cooperation with Iteris, has launched the first deep-sea container service to Ukraine.

MSC Mediterranean Shipping plans to restart feeder service offerings to the port of Odesa, with the first call designated for mid-June this year.

Hapag-Lloyd has reportedly launched a new sea shuttle service between Ukraine and Romania, connecting the Fishport terminal in Chernomorsk with the DP World terminal in Constanta.

This service will start on 27 May, with departures after every five days.

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/containers/msc-and-hapag-lloyd-lead-container-lines-back-to-war-ravaged-ukraine/2-1-1662993

(1 week ago)

MSC and Hapag-Lloyd lead container lines back to war-ravaged Ukraine

Liner operators are tentatively resuming services after a two-year hiatus

Container shipping lines are slowly resuming services to Ukraine after an absence of more than two years.

Liner giants including MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company and Hapag-Lloyd are restarting services either independently or together with small Ukrainian shipping companies.

Geneva-based MSC has this week become the first major operator to initiate services with its own tonnage, according to Alphaliner.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 25 2024 13:32 utc | 24

@5

A bridge is safe for the goats to cross.

B glad to see you back!

Posted by: paddy | Jun 25 2024 13:35 utc | 25

I think it is probably a good idea to be skeptical about Ukrainian claims of mobilizing 5k men per day. Where is Dima's source? He's taken some credibility hits, lately. Like harping on and on about a "greatest Ukrainian counter-offensive" any day now ... right. Well, where is it? He practically promised it by July so that the NATO summit clowns would be impressed. That's now less than two weeks from today.


So much of this war turns out to be lies, it's the fog of war plus an unusually big incentive for both sides to spread BS, with social media and whatnot amplifying the noise and making it harder than ever to get to the truth.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 25 2024 13:41 utc | 26

Somehow, despite all this "crumbling" we hear about, the Ukrops are able to hold the line and the Russkis unable to (materially, rapidly) push through them. We have a glacial rate of change in territory.

And we've been reading these "crumbling" posts for a couple years now.

And the "muh attrition" advocates won't even make a Bayesian estimate of WHEN the crumbling and "muh attrition" will actually cause the lines to fracture, allowing rapid advances.

The whole thing is about feeding the base red meat and telling people what they want to hear. Instead of analyzing objectively WHICHEVER way it falls. I would say the same thing to Crimea beach party advocates if this were a NAFO site.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Posted by: Anonymous | Jun 25 2024 13:42 utc | 27

Jpc #22 Worried sick, alone?

I don't think so. There are many barflies and most of the Pentagon, just to mention some.

Putin knew what he was up against all along, although he was not ready for the SMO, but his hand was forced, cf, Arnaud for both. Biden stated that he had no choice but to invade in mid-Feb.

Sanity will not prevail until Biden is out. The US is facing some serious turmoil ahead. It looks as if he will be, howsomever. . .

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jun 25 2024 13:46 utc | 28

Posted by: Inka | Jun 25 2024 13:12 utc | 18

"Besides, Putin has made clear that high Russian casualties is a core feature of this "traditional Russian" strategy"

Next, you'll tell us that Napoleon fucked you in the ass as is "traditional" in France.

Posted by: Boo | Jun 25 2024 13:54 utc | 29

Might , just the first few days, a month tops. They are bringing in from a much smaller and less motivated pool.
Posted by: Newbie | Jun 25 2024 13:03 utc | 14

The people taken by force from the streets. The number surely oscillates and they aren't exactly Rambo material. Ukr also declared another 1.1m as fit for service out of 2.3m liable, they said. They're probably trying to simulate great strength, "give us more money", "we'll park our tanks in Moscow" and so on.

Posted by: rk | Jun 25 2024 13:55 utc | 30

How effective have Russian glide FABs been, and how many can Russia deploy? Ukraine doesn’t seem to have a credible answer to them.

Posted by: a stone | Jun 25 2024 13:58 utc | 31

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8yMTGKURYU

Heavy bombs with near 100% accuracy? This guarantees huge casualties and suggests that body counts could be conservative. They can only guess who's buried under rubble. 2.3 million liable? If they lose over 2K per day, 'to the last Ukrainian' doesn't look like hyperbole.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 25 2024 14:05 utc | 32

@3 chessmasterz

Re: just win it already

Russias problem is that it doesn't need to just defeat Ukraine, it's a US and UK led Nato that threatens it's existence. Even wiping out Ukraine and occupying all of it doesn't win it.

He needs Nato broken up so Europe can pursue it's interests with cooperation with Russia as Russia is clearly unable to conquer it, even if it wanted to.

So..this war needs to end with a confrontation with Nato, in Ukraine far to the east where Russia will have an advantage.

Nato knows this and won't commit to doing it, but is being pulled in against it's wishes anyways.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 25 2024 14:07 utc | 33

It’s easy to say tear something down, but hard to build it up. Easy to say “y’all are a bunch of idiots, Putin is weak” etc. So I’ll go out on a limb and throw out some of my guesses. 1) the initial SMO was based on very faulty Russian intelligence that the Ukrainian government would collapse if pushed. You can think of the initial military element as a psychological prop to affect a political change in Ukrainian government. 2) after that didn’t work out, Putin was caught with his pants down. He had hugely insufficient forces for a real invasion against a determined enemy flooded with Western supplies. He tried to negotiate out in Istanbul but the West pulled the plug, sensing a victory and chance to flip Russia, 3) RuMOD was genuinely incompetent at the beginning. The success of the Syria expeditionary force (remember that?) blinded everyone on both sides into thinking that Russia was a genuine first tier military. But I guess middle eastern wars against Arabs are like playing single A baseball and don’t really prove much.

4) Putin has an incredibly legalistic way of thinking, he puts all the lawyers in the US State Department to shame. Yes we absolutely have to save all the Ukrainian babushkas, they are our people, but if a Ukrainian man enlists in the Ukrainian army, fair game, let’s run a war of extermination against the AFU while trying to protect Ukrainian civilians to the maximum degree. This become farcical when the AFU encompasses a significant chunk of the Ukrainian male population and by trying to attrition them to zero, you essentially attrition the 1,000 year Ukrainian people to zero as well. Similar, Russian troops enlist and get fragged, well they knew what they were doing when they enlisted. Belgorod or Donetsk or Crimea civilians get killed, they are sacrificing for the future of the Russian people. Can’t make an omelet without breaking some eggs.

5) Putin values loyalty and does not in fact feel especially safe in his position. So better be cautious and wait 2+ years before you try to clean up rampant RuMOD corruption. And even then, you remove the head of RuMOD, who is personally loyal, by promoting him up.

6) never go the full way when you can take a half step. This was Putin’s MO since the beginning, but it served him well in peacetime. Don’t make big moves, do reforms slowly, slowly, until 20 years passes and the country is totally changed. In war, half measures have not worked well. Degrade the electrical system but don’t break it (think of the babushkas). Run a half-@ssed blockade of Odessa but then let it expire. Take 1 1/2 years to independently invent 1990s glide bombs, and then drop them on troop concentrations of a few soldiers (this entire war is incredibly dispersed). Redirect gas pipelines to China but take 10 years at peacetime speed to do it.

Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Jun 25 2024 14:10 utc | 34

Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Jun 25 2024 14:10 utc | 34

I don’t think Putin is making military decisions, that seems an oversimplification of how Russia manages its affairs. Given that, I don’t see much use in psychoanalyzing the person of Vladimir Putin in understanding the progress of this war. We can look at how Putin expresses the policies of the Russian state to understand the goals of a future peace. That seems unrelated to discussions about the pace of warfare or even more the efforts to build infrastructure on the other side of the country.

Posted by: a stone | Jun 25 2024 14:19 utc | 35

https://www.southfront.press/investigation-concluded-russian-il-76-with-ukrainian-pows-shot-down-by-patriot-missiles/ this is a report on the official version of who shot down the PoWs on their way to the exchange.

Posted by: snake | Jun 25 2024 14:21 utc | 36

jpc @ 22

You are not alone.

Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 25 2024 14:27 utc | 37

A strange legacy of the Soviet era is the remarkably durable construction of concrete high-rise residential buildings in Ukraine. These buildings have been essential to the defense of places like Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vugledar. Used as impregnable fortresses for Ukrainian infantry launching ATGMs and directing artillery fire, the high rise buildings are the core of defense of key urban area.

With the advent of the FAB 3000 bombs, we will see if these structures are truly indestructible. If Russian aviation can totally destroy any defensive Ukrainian position, the outcome of the war is certain.

Posted by: HH | Jun 25 2024 14:29 utc | 38

The crazed non-agreement-capable neocons running the US are primarily concerned with maintaining their own political power and have no qualms about continuing to escalate the war with Russia. They are to0 arrogant and ignorant to understand that their own system is unsustainable and incapable of defeating the coalition of enemies their hubris and aggression have created.

The fools cannot win but they will not back down. The question is to what lengths will they to go to forestall defeat? It seems increasingly clear that they intend to escalate the war to the point where US and NATO forces directly enter the war against Russia -- and they have decided to push Russia to the point where it will respond forcefully enough to US/NATO provocations to "justify" direct US/NATO intervention in Ukraine.

If hitting beaches in Sevastopol with cluster munitions, slaughtering kids at a concert in Moscow, coordinating terror attacks throughout Russia, striking Russian oil refineries and Early Warning Systems doesn't provoke a "sufficient" Russian response for Western media to trumpet as the ultimate aggression, what comes next? ATACMs aimed at Moscow? A false flag?

During the (first) Cold War, Western leaders were educated enough to understand and fear Mutual Assured Destruction brought about by a nuclear holocaust. I see no convincing evidence that fear still exists in the incompetent, twisted minds of the idiots making the decisions to commit egregious acts of war against Russia. That is what frightens me the most.

Posted by: Perimetr | Jun 25 2024 14:31 utc | 39

How does one say FAFO in Ukrainian? Because, they are finding out in a bad, bad way.

Posted by: Matt | Jun 25 2024 14:43 utc | 40

Posted by: Perimetr | Jun 25 2024 14:31 utc | 39

I have said several times that a few discreet double taps delivered simultaneously at night in the Beltway would stop this shit show in its tracks.

Posted by: morongobill | Jun 25 2024 14:48 utc | 41

A released to media report.

"Senior military officials in Kiev were responsible for shooting down a Russian transport plane that was carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war for an exchange earlier this year, Russia’s Investigative Committee said on Tuesday.

The Ilyushin Il-76M aircraft was downed by a US-made Patriot interceptor missile on January 24, according to Russian investigators. All those on board, including 65 POWs, three Russian guards, and six crew members, were killed in the crash."

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Jun 25 2024 14:49 utc | 42

Ukrainians have enough forces, motivations, weapons and money to start a counteroffensive.
After two years of war.
That shows how weak Russia is.

Posted by: vargas | Jun 25 2024 14:50 utc | 43

Syrski did his "job" sending AZOV units to the front in order to elliminate them seeing as Zaluzhny did everything he could to keep them armed and treated like some sort of evil royalty. God job, General. Good job indeed.

Posted by: MoT | Jun 25 2024 14:51 utc | 44

I would take mobilizing 5k with a grain of salt. What is believable would be they are mobilizing highest level of SMO history backed by the new mobilization law. But generally all absolute figures by Kiev regime are hugely exaggerated.

Still, Ukraine is facing demographic extinction, economic collapse, stone age and disintegration within the next 12 months.

People should remember the morale level of the regime, if given a value on scale 0-100 would be -10,and the main driver of the war is the motivation for Rada deputies and officials to plunder wealth from the western money spigot. The collateral for western aid/debt is the Ukrainian people, and a life is cheaper than a $4k arty shell.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 25 2024 14:57 utc | 45

once this war is over there will be a lot of single Ukrainian women who will suddenly discover that victorious Russian men with a state pension from a state with a resource back currency, are a way better marriage prospect than a crippled Neo-Nazis begging for change on the street from Western debt loaded fiat-based currency. history has repeatedly shown that the first thing states abandon when they start to collapse is their promises of support to crippled soldiers. The idea of Ukrainian-ness as a state identity will be completely discredited, since most of the children born in the ukrainian regions will in fact be Russian

Posted by: Kadath | Jun 25 2024 15:00 utc | 46

This is a good point, I was aware of the supposed price of both but never thought it through. The Global Hawk is more expnesive than an F-35! Plus, a plane has one or two pilots, leaving aside the maintenance crew, the Global hawk probably has a team of 6-12 probably not that different to an AWACs. Of course there's no way the USA has money for national health or university education.

Even if the rumors aren't true, I wanted to post this to show just how ridiculous the US military has gotten. A Global Hawk drone is $130 million. Meanwhile a Sukhoi SU-34 is about 35 million. How is this possible, besides sheer, unadulterated and unpunished corruption?
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/114362

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 25 2024 15:01 utc | 47

Extrapolating the steady ramping up of offensive hardware provided by the U.S. to Ukraine takes us to the step that would trigger a general European war: long-range cruise missiles in Ukraine. Ground and air-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of 1,000 miles could hit hundreds of high value military and infrastructure targets in Western Russia. No matter how effective Russian air defense is, it could not intercept all low-flying cruise missiles over the vast area of European Russia. The Russians would have no alternative to striking directly at NATO sites providing military support for Ukraine, and we would be on the way to a nuclear war.

Posted by: HH | Jun 25 2024 15:02 utc | 48

Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Jun 25 2024 12:34 utc | 9
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
How did you come out with this farcical theory of yours? I am curious.

Posted by: AI | Jun 25 2024 15:02 utc | 49

@unimperator - excellent comment, as usual.

Every Ukrainian killed by the West is one fewer debt serf to live a life of enslavement. Demographics = destiny.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 25 2024 15:02 utc | 50

Posted by: MoT | Jun 25 2024 14:51 utc | 44

Zaluzhny was massively popular with Azov. To eliminate the potential for a military coup led by Zaluzhny, Zelensky ordered Syrsky to conveniently do everything possible to reduce strength of Azov and Kraken.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 25 2024 15:03 utc | 51

22: Boo

Next, you'll tell us that Putin fucked you in the ass, as is "traditional" in man-crush country. You seemingly have a hard crush on Vlad.

Yet why are you throwing tantrums on Putin’s behalf? He is worth $200 billion. He doesn’t give a fuck about you. Putin is not your boo, boo, so boo hoo for you.

The war must not be going well Putin fanboy, if your only response to Russia’s failures is a childish rant, exposing your libidinal urges.

All of the rational posters here are soft-censored by these boo boys, man-crushing on Putin and attacking others.

Not surprising, Vlad embraces censorship also. His wind up dolls yearn for the same. Boo is frightened by words!

Posted by: Napoleon | Jun 25 2024 15:04 utc | 52

In case anyone is still wondering if the attack on the holiday beach crowd in Sevastopol was collateral damage or intentional, the latest vid makes it really hard to believe it was collateral:

https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/9405

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 25 2024 15:06 utc | 53

Though in no way am I a member of the "Investor Class". That said, my speculation is that no serious private investor would even consider Ukraine as a potential source of future profits. There are state operations, financier monopolies and greedy corporations who consider Ukraine's resources as a milk-cow. However, the most productive industrial and farm lands in that failed state are primarily located in ethnic Russian populated regions, most specifically the Donbass. It is not at all probable that the R.U. would recognize any of those Maidan coup regime's contracts as being valid.

So the general uptake on those who choose to invest in Ukrainian bonds or institutions would probably be viable targets for salesmen for ocean-front properties in Arizona.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jun 25 2024 15:07 utc | 54

Ukrainians have enough forces, motivations, weapons and money to start a counteroffensive.
After two years of war.

Posted by: vargas | Jun 25 2024 14:50 utc | 43

______

Just let me know when I should start making the popcorn!

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 25 2024 15:10 utc | 55

Before this war can end, Russia will need to collapse NATO and expel American forces from everywhere east of the Rhein. This is straightforwardly obvious and should not even be controversial. The significant questions only begin to be asked after you've already accepted this as a datum.

Now, either Russia understands this, or it doesn't. If Russia does understand this, then the slow pace it has been taking with Ukraine is incredibly hard to justify. Yes, there was a case to be made in the early days of the war that Russia should not provoke NATO too much too soon, and that Russia should attempt to demonstrate to the world that it was not a bellicose blob attempting to absorb its neighbors and build an empire; but that ship has already sailed, and that particular case has grown quite stale. The West will continue to use Ukraine to launch terror-attacks into Russia for as long as there is a Ukraine, meaning that Russia is going to have to take the whole thing, whether they want it or not.

It is long past time to bring the fight to Kiev, to destroy the Ukrainian government and to interdict weapons supplies into the country. This means also closing the Black Sea to all Western military. This will be a massive escalatory step, but failing to do so will simply allow the West to hang around Russia's borders until they eventually get lucky, meaning all the past efforts would have been for nothing.

The Russian populace is way ahead of the Kremlin on this and they are starting to get genuinely restive, wondering when Putin plans on finishing the job. If Putin does not want to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, he needs to make a move very soon.

It is tempting to conclude that Russia simply doesn't understand the situation, but that conclusion is not without its problems, either. If, after all this time, Russia still does not understand, then it is starting to look weak and buffoonish. That is not a look that's going to discourage the West from further provocation. The writing is on the wall here: Russia must be more aggressive or the path ahead will be worse for it, not better. It's time to "start something."

Posted by: Gnome Sane | Jun 25 2024 15:11 utc | 56

The electricity network is on the verge of falling apart.

It will lead to starvation and disease. Later on russian troops entering Ukraine should meet people resembling those whose grandparents found in what we are teach to named as "death camps"

Posted by: Roberto | Jun 25 2024 15:13 utc | 57

I see that the apologists for Empire, having been on unpaid leave while b was out of action, are trying to make up their hours. If war is fundamentally a question of industrial capacity, they are winning the fight for this bar. They take up more space with complete, repetitive, scripted drivel than sensible posters are able to balance with sensible posts, and half the 'sensible' posters- or perhaps the 'half-sensible' posters empower them further by engaging with the drivel. Despite their disdain for 'attrition,' they are waging and winning a war of attrition here. Perhaps their advice is in some ways sound: perhaps our own Fearless Leader should employ his superior weaponry and eliminate the problem at its source.

There is a war on, comrades, and MOA is losing. It survives, but to what end? What is the contribution to the larger war? To the extent that understanding the real world is valuable to good people making important decision, the utility of the site has been diminishing rapidly. Real discussion is buried in the rubble of nonsensical arguments over non-factual concoctions of ancient history, gender identity, eschatology and dead philosophies- and these are the 'wise beards' of the bar. Some change of policy, either by b or by the committed drunks, is necessary if MOA is to be anything but a distraction.

Posted by: Honzo | Jun 25 2024 15:13 utc | 58

Posted by: Inka | Jun 25 2024 13:12 utc | 18
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Your opinion is nonsensical and reflects utter and complete ignorance on your part.

Perhaps, you've been fed fake news from the falling empire that is desperate to win this hybrid war but it can't.

Posted by: AI | Jun 25 2024 15:15 utc | 59

"Some change of policy, either by b or by the committed drunks, is necessary if MOA is to be anything but a distraction."

Posted by: Honzo | Jun 25 2024 15:13 utc | 58

Totally disagree.

If you don't like the MOA environment, just go to a better spot, but crying like an hysterical Karen is quite unbecoming...

Posted by: canuck | Jun 25 2024 15:17 utc | 60

Posted by: Gnome Sane | Jun 25 2024 15:11 utc | 56

The brinksmanship in this post and specifically its characterization of Russian public opinion has too many disturbing parallels to the alleged hardline lean of the Israali public, and of the assertions of the Israeli hardliners that "[Iran] will continue to use [Gaza and Southern Lebanon] to launch terror-attacks into [Israel] for as long as there is a [Hamas/Hezbollah], meaning that [Israel] is going to have to take the whole thing, whether they want it or not.". Just substitute the names like Mad-Libs and it sounds exactly the same.

Posted by: Inka | Jun 25 2024 15:20 utc | 61

It seems increasingly clear that they intend to escalate the war to the point where US and NATO forces directly enter the war against Russia
Posted by: Perimetr | Jun 25 2024 14:31 utc | 39

Not the muricans, only euronatostan. The entire eastern Europe was taken into nato to be used like Ukr, their economies are artificially kept and population brainwashed into uneducated savages. US will play the old style, let others kill each other. what is strange is that Russia repeatedly talked about increased danger of war in Europe. How do they know so well it'll be limited to Europe? It's funny that Macaron seems to think he's in the spectators club, but if euronatostan is ordered to go Ukr way, France will be included in the kamikaze club simply because they have some nukes and are stupid.

Posted by: rk | Jun 25 2024 15:22 utc | 62

Merv Ritchie@1331

As the Global Hawk is an advanced type of drone, thus not being piloted by a genuine human on board; the possibility of U$$A and Perfidious Albion's mass media of mass mindfuckery could not scream and holler about the R.U. killing "our boys"...and gurrls

.Such a squawk would not fly...with the exception of those fellow Americans who are boobtoob noose addicts and therefore are terminally deluded.

Thus, the inevitable downing of that recon and directing aerial vehicle would be steps short of even a quasi-legitimate casus belli.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jun 25 2024 15:23 utc | 63

Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Jun 25 2024 13:27 utc | 21
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Wrong again. Russia servicemen harm and attack only Ukrainian soldiers and foreign mercenaries not civilians. The US soldiers instead like the IOF and neo-NAZI Ukrainians kill anything that moves including civilians of all ages. The last terrorist attack orchestrated by the US in Sevastopol on Sunday during a religious day shows clearly that and more. A sign of evil intentions, pure and simple.

Posted by: AI | Jun 25 2024 15:24 utc | 64

Trolls (concern or otherwise) keep saying that Russians are becoming increasingly restive and impatient with their leadership, but never provide any evidence to confirm this. Hmm.

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 25 2024 15:26 utc | 65

Ukraine is goon squadding 5k/day? Sheer fabrication..

In much better news, Assange is free on a plea deal, and Stella is now raising money for the charter flights he's forced to take...You'll find it on Crowd-fund....

Posted by: gemini7 | Jun 25 2024 15:26 utc | 66

Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Jun 25 2024 14:10 utc | 34

>>1) the initial SMO was based on very faulty Russian intelligence that the Ukrainian government would collapse if pushed.

The apparent reason for the initial invasion of Ukraine is that the Ukranianians where getting ready to attack the independent parts of the Donbas region. The certain thing about the invasion is that it wasn't preplanned. We know this because it was disorganized. To get enough troops to do it, the Russians had to include military units that were roughly the functional equivalent of civil defense forces. Not the best troops for all out combat and the overall force lacked a centeral command. Plus there weren't enough troops to hold the amount of territory occupied.

If we are to suppose that the SMO invasion was a mistake, then it is necessary to ask: what was the other choice? Let the Ukrainians overrun the Donbas? It seems unlikely that letting that happen would have produced a better outcome.

Also, it was not done in the expectation that the Ukrainian Gov would collapse. Rather there was the hope that the government would be intimidated into coming to terms. That is what that agreement down in Turkey that Boris Johnson scuttled was all about. When that fell through the Russians were occupying more territory than they could expect to hold, and so they retreated to a defensive military posture.

It can be seen as a mistake or a miscalculation, but either way the ongoing mistake Putin has been making is thinking that he could settle things with NATO as led by the United States. That has proven to be unworkable. However the outcome, on balance, has actually worked to Russia's benefit. So far the NATO advised or NATO led Ukrainian military in Ukraine has been good at wasting the available military assets even as Russia grows stronger. Compared to the current situation, an all out war with NATO two years ago would have led to both sides scrambling to put together an army that would be up to the task. Instead only Russia has been getting stronger on a military level while Ukraine has mainly managed to burn through the available NATO military assets.

Putin, by the way, has admitted that he made the mistake of expecting to get a workable outcome with NATO. Given that Russia now has a firm alignment with China and a military alliance with North Korea, obviously he has corrected that mistake.

Posted by: Jmaas | Jun 25 2024 15:27 utc | 67

Posted by: Honzo | Jun 25 2024 15:13 utc | 58

Well said, Honzo. It's another victory for the hooligans, I'm afraid.

Posted by: Mexicana | Jun 25 2024 15:28 utc | 68

anon2020@1332

Wouldn't it be a pity if one of those monstrously huge and top-heavy container ships would run into one of the many "loose Ukrainian mines" which have yet to be fully swept or accounted for. Those mines would make for excellent plausible denials for interested parties.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jun 25 2024 15:29 utc | 69

Come on! Keep on believing!! Plan A Plan A Plan A! Narcissism Rules! Biden will have a stroke if you dont believe......

Posted by: nook | Jun 25 2024 15:34 utc | 70

>>Yet why are you throwing tantrums on Putin’s behalf? He is worth $200 billion.
Posted by: Napoleon | Jun 25 2024 15:04 utc | 52

What? Only $200 billion? My totally reliable source puts it at $200 trillion. Plus a trillion here a trillion there added every little while.

Posted by: Jmaas | Jun 25 2024 15:35 utc | 71

Just an observation - of all these empire apologists and fan-bois, I haven't seen a single one wish B well in his recovery, nor show an ounce of gratitude for this blog. Things that make you go, hmmm.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 25 2024 15:37 utc | 72

Posted by: Honzo | Jun 25 2024 15:13 utc

Well said, Honzo. The remedy may be as simple as some addnl thread topics, and enforce the "stick to topic" policy in each thread.

That lets the people talk about whatever they wish, but the reader gets to pick what thread they read and comment upon. Censorship is very limited, the freewheeling bar atmosphere is preserved, and signal-to-noise ratio improves a lot.

This is in no way a criticism of what people talk about; its clearly of interest to someone, or there wouldn't be the rich discussions on these subjects.

The only stuff I screen out are the petulant arguments and name-callers, and the first thing I do is scroll down to see who wrote the comment, and then I may scroll back up to read what they said.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Jun 25 2024 15:38 utc | 73

So glad to see b is back and feeling better. Not so glad to see the usual trolls and naysayers return.

In regards to a timeframe for the end of the SMO: If anyone has read Simplicius with any consistency, you would know he has repeatedly stated that mid 2025 is the likely terminus barring any "black swan" events.
This is just an estimate based on how long it would take for the AFU to degrade to the point of complete ineffectiveness.
I would add that if NATO or America decide to join the fray obviously the calculus changes

Posted by: Ezzie | Jun 25 2024 15:41 utc | 74


Posted by: malenkov | Jun 25 2024 15:26 utc | 65

Trolls (concern or otherwise) keep saying that Russians are becoming increasingly restive and impatient with their leadership, but never provide any evidence to confirm this. Hmm.

Josh Helmer reported an alleged poll that says this. But with Putin controlling public opinion so strictly I wouldn't trust any such poll.

-----------------------

Posted by: AI | Jun 25 2024 15:24 utc | 64

Wrong again. Russia servicemen harm and attack only Ukrainian soldiers and foreign mercenaries not civilians. The US soldiers instead like the IOF and neo-NAZI Ukrainians kill anything that moves including civilians of all ages. The last terrorist attack orchestrated by the US in Sevastopol on Sunday during a religious day shows clearly that and more. A sign of evil intentions, pure and simple.

Yet it's Putin's Generals that are now facing ICC arrest warrants for war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Posted by: Inka | Jun 25 2024 15:41 utc | 75

Posted by: Honzo | Jun 25 2024 15:13 utc | 58

I really doubt that MoA could have any effect on the war or the world geopolitics.

It can actually be, by the way, a good contrarian indicator.

When Msm and the spills out here on MoA are pedal to the metal it's generally a sign that thing in the real world are not going well and more propaganda is needed.

Relax and have a shot of what you like at the bar, I'm paying for it.

Posted by: Mario | Jun 25 2024 15:44 utc | 76

Lucas Leiroz cogently describes the significance of both attacks on 6/23:

It is naive to think that the attacks in Crocus or Dagestan are a simple action by “ISIS” or any other radical Islamic militia. These terrorist groups do not act alone, being only proxies for Western powers and serving as false flags to disguise the involvement of intelligence agencies linked to NATO. In practice, it is possible to say that every attack by a radical Salafist in Russia means precisely an intelligence operation conducted by Western agents.

https://strategic-culture.su/news/2024/06/25/terror-from-all-sides-us-new-bet-against-the-russian-federation/

I'm not Russian, but sources I regularly consult (such as Leiroz), report that Russians see the 6/23 double-tap from NATO as a new, much more dangerous phase of escalation. Rand Paul is not Russian, but RT headlines his observation that Russia "can't not retaliate".

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jun 25 2024 15:46 utc | 77

So Ukraine is simultaneously asking bond holders to wait longer for repayment while they devalue Ukrainian currency through inflation? If that is the case then no wonder bond holders would get antsy. You'd be asking them to sit still for a haircut that could soon devolve into a scalping. A few major defeats on the battlefield for Ukraine and their currency could decline like that of the Confederacy in 1864 through 1865.

And if Ukraine becomes seen as inevitably going to have to come to terms with Russia, and President Biden becomes seen as inevitably going to lose to Trump, those Ukrainian bonds could plummet in value. Regardless of events, the Ukrainian economy will have to be heavily propped up for at least a decade, and probably several decades. Should it lose favor with Western governments it will be reduced to begging for help like in a Charles Dickens tale.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 25 2024 15:51 utc | 78

Light Years from Home@1501

The WarDefen$e industry (aka "military-industrial complex"); is all about maxi profits for shareholder investors. As private corporations with deepening pockets; buying off members of Congre$$ and innumerable administrative bureaucraps is simply a matter of resource application.

Thus, with open purses, which rebound back to the "decision makers" in the Di$trict of Corruption; the producers of the Global Hawk along with the trillion $$$+ F-35 "flying turkey"/"hangar queen"...are investing their resources in the highest possible returns. Why should they give a fat, furry, flying fart about performance of those productions. Their sole motivations are $$$, whether directly from the American taxpayer...or grossly inflated national indebtedness.

Contrary to this ultimate corruption in the U$$A; most Russian military production is a state monopoly and is most carefully monitored. Some production is in private hands, while the oversight by government officials is growingly stringent.

Thus, the R.U. achieves materiel superiority for kopeks on the Ruble as compared with drowning in disappearing dollars on the part of the most deeply corrupted major power on planet earth.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jun 25 2024 15:51 utc | 79

MoD is now reporting a bit over 2K per day in dead Ukrainians.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 25 2024 13:05 utc | 16

They write „losses“ not dead. I think in the last 2.5 years it was mentioned a dozens of times on MoA that the Ru Mod is talking about „killed“ and „severly wounded“ when they speak of losses.
But I could be wrong. There is great confusion in this topic.

Posted by: NoName | Jun 25 2024 15:52 utc | 80

Posted by: Honzo | Jun 25 2024 15:13 utc | 58

It's beautiful because of this chaos not despite it. However there are a lot of relatively insipid NAFO style random assertions of utterly delusional worldviews. I give them 50/50 odds of being true believers vs. paid disruption. In any case they provide a certain wry amusement and you can see where the latest fascist imperialist talking points are headed. Like laughing at murderous retards, its good for the soul in these bleak times.

By the way I don't generally condone laughing at retards. Only certain kinds. The deliberate ones. They're more amusing than the cryptoreligious stuff that crops up time to time.

I mean, Ukraine is mining its own borders to prevent potential volksturm from escaping. The implications of this and hundreds of other similar developments can be picked apart for certain but the obvious overall picture is a harbinger of collapse of the UAF.

The Maericans are astounded that Russians appear to not be convinced by their imbecilic sockpuppet arguments that Russia is responsible for Maerican terrorist attacks on its people because Russia isn't hitting back hard enough. Russian unity is increasing, not decreasing.

Meanwhile back in Maerica...

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 25 2024 15:52 utc | 81

@ inka @ 15:41 utc

Quoting the first paragraph of the Helmer article you cite:

“A newly released national poll reveals that Russian public support for the Army and for President Vladimir Putin is growing. At the same time, the proportion of Russians in favour of expanded military operations is rising at the expense of those who favour negotiations. The outcomes for negotiations acceptable to the Russians who support them are rapidly shrinking, too.”

Oh, how threatening to Putin! — whose reaction might well be akin to “Oh please Br’er Fox, whatever you do, please don’t throw me into the briar patch.”

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 25 2024 15:52 utc | 82

Napoleon@1504

Evidently, you consider yourself as one of those "rational posters". "Quelle Amusement".

Posted by: aristodemos | Jun 25 2024 15:54 utc | 83

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 25 2024 13:06 utc | 17

Remember when Budanov office was kalibrated ? It was a revenge strike for terrorist strike on Kersh Bridge than killed two parents and wounded their girl (now an orphan). It was not my point. The new trend I was talkin'bout is Ukrop killing banderists. Not "en masse", but more and more AND more often.
Also white vans with black plates are surprisingly prone to combustion this days Banderistan. Not only the Renault ones ...

Posted by: Savonarole | Jun 25 2024 15:55 utc | 84

And the "muh attrition" advocates won't even make a Bayesian estimate of WHEN the crumbling and "muh attrition" will actually cause the lines to fracture, allowing rapid advances.

Posted by: Anonymous | Jun 25 2024 13:42 utc | 27

I believe it was Shoigu who said a year and a half ago that the Russian MOD estimated an end of military operations by years end 2024. Obviously there have been escalations and Ukraine has been re-animated a couple of times by the west since then but that prediction could still hold ... I don't get invited to Russian staff meetings so who knows.

So if Ukraine was able to raise 5000 quality troops a day and get them on the front in literally days why didn't they bother to do that when they were getting their asses kicked in Zaparozhia last summer?

They let a NATO trained army of 100,000 get destroyed when they had the power to raise a brigade of soldiers a week and still give the dogcatchers the weekends off??

You're the guy who believes the amount of real estate taken is the only measure of success in war ... why didn't Ukraine raise a couple of divisions of recruits to keep Avdivika from falling to the Russians?

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 25 2024 15:55 utc | 85

The Dagestan terrorist strike in Russia is being reported as carried out by ISIS. The interesting aspect of the event would be the attack on the Synagogue - reported that NO ONE died there, while several died horribly in the Orthodox churches.

Two interesting elements in this attack:

1) ISIS as far as I can remember has *NEVER* struck a Synagogue - this would be the first. If there is a credible case previously, I'm all ears. It would be am major sea change in the way ISIS operates as ISIS. The attack on the Synagogue reeks of narrative control implying "...even though the Israeli are deep in bed with ISIS and embedded in Azerbaijan, they weren't involved in this attack."

2) Dagestan is right next to Azerbaijan, which of course is in tight with the Israelis.

My suspicion is that the Synagogue was struck to throw folks off the trail of tying this terrorist attack to the Israeli controllers who run ISIS for the Deep State.

The reaction by Russia to this strike IMHO will show is Putin is "Saint Vladimir the Great" or "Saint Vladimir the Little"

Posted by: Simpleton | Jun 25 2024 15:58 utc | 86

5,000 men mobilized a day is insane and ... also suggests that Ukrainian society is nowhere near exhausted with the war.

Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Jun 25 2024 11:59 utc | 3

---

fungible /ˈfʌn(d)ʒɪbl/ adjective


(of a product or commodity) replaceable by another identical item; mutually interchangeable.
"it is by no means the world's only fungible commodity"

Origin
mid 17th century: from medieval Latin fungibilis, from Latin fungi ‘perform, enjoy’, with the same sense as fungi vice ‘serve in place of’.

The mobilized men are being removed from Ukraine's productive economy without replacement. The only mobilized that come without cost are those that are take from prison.

5000 places of employment per day are being made idle.

And Ukraine is looking to re-finance and increase its loans. They won't get a discount from their creditors for creating a generation of amputees.

Posted by: too scents | Jun 25 2024 15:58 utc | 87

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 25 2024 15:37 utc | 72

Of course they don‘t show any gratitude to B and his blog. They don‘t have any interest in a honest discussion. Thry are just here to disrupt the blog.

Posted by: NoName | Jun 25 2024 15:59 utc | 88

imho the more important questions right now might seem to be
#1 why has Julian Assange just been released from prison (1 week before Starmer gets elected)
is this Assange charade (both his arrest and his release) more to do with politics wrt Starmer or is it all about Bidens
election campaign and not Starmer's at all (or perhaps its both)
#2 the attempt to deal with both Hungary (Orban) and Slovakia (Fico) at 1 and and the same time
(also hear about trouble in Czechia

re: Expulsion of the Ukrainian diplomat from the Czech Republic.....

Extraordinary statement by Foreign Minister Lipavský in connection with the revelation of the organization of the assassination of the elected Slovak president Petr Pelligrini.)


things are not looking good at the moment whatever your take may be

these are desperate times

Posted by: chris m | Jun 25 2024 15:59 utc | 89

Front line reports show Russian advances are close to continuous and gaining about double the ground today versus a month ago. Current tactic for any urban area is to FAB it so assaults have fewer casualties, although progress might be slower. The Ukie's best weapon continues to be FPV drones, although Russians have developed an EW mechanism for detecting where the drones "orders" are coming from which are then visited by artillery or FAB.

The terrorist attack in Dagestan by now will have circulated through the Russian ranks and will serve to increase their resolve. As for deploying a No-Fly Zone over the Northern half of the Black Sea, Russia will just implement it without any announcement, which is something it ought to have done back in 2022.

Today, Putin met with Kherson Region Governor Volodymyr Saldo and reviewed rebuilding, ongoing agriculture work, and further infrastructure projects all of which are proceeding apace. I expect more to happen in Kherson militarily in the coming weeks. Overall attrition of Ukie artillery over the past few weeks has averaged 15-20 tubes daily. I also expect to see a standing air patrol tasked with targeting ATACM launchers before they can move from their firing position.

The NATO decision to stand and fight instead of retreating to more powerful defensive positions is a boon for Russia as it feeds its attrition strategy. NATO keeps doing the same thing expecting different results, but the results continue to be the same daily. You'd think a commander with some modicum of sense would see that and attempt to change the process. That nothing changes spells doom for NATO troops if they get employed as they remain green when it comes to combat experience and will suffer the same fate as Ukie troops who are managed the same way.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 25 2024 16:01 utc | 90

jmaas@1527

Insightful and well presented. Thanks.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jun 25 2024 16:02 utc | 91

Posted by: Chessmaster Z | Jun 25 2024 14:10 utc | 34

The true Chessmaster Z comes out - a NATO troll!

Posted by: Peter Williams | Jun 25 2024 16:05 utc | 92

Ukrainians have enough forces, motivations, weapons and money to start a counteroffensive.
After two years of war.
Posted by: vargas | Jun 25 2024 14:50 utc | 43

Will this counteroffensive be more grand than the one from last year?

Posted by: NoName | Jun 25 2024 16:08 utc | 93

@b re: "A few Russian hits on those switching stations which receive supply from Europe could finish it off."

What effect will this (loss of load/gen balance) have on the EU grid?

Posted by: Dr Wellington Yueh | Jun 25 2024 16:10 utc | 94

Ukrainians have enough forces, motivations, weapons and money to start a counteroffensive.
After two years of war.
That shows how weak Russia is.

Posted by: vargas | Jun 25 2024 14:50 utc | 43

And some say the art of reading entrails is long dead !

FWIW Trudeau just lost a "safe" seat in the Toronto GTA to the Canadian Conservative party. Canadians appear tired of this U.S./EU Muppet mediocrity. Canada's one strength was Diplomacy. Now it's belligerence and propaganda. All Canadian Media is owned by dirty money.
Change is coming to both sides of the border.

Posted by: kupkee | Jun 25 2024 16:10 utc | 95

The frightening part of this war is that the takeover of the Slavic bloc by the US and British empires would also be underway in the background.

I am told that after Nuland bribing the neo-Nazis and planted spores of US imperialism in Ukraine with the Maidan Revolution, Anglo-American capital moved in quickly and bought up all the land in Ukraine.
It is likely that ownership of the land of Ukraine's poor peasants passed into the hands of Anglo-American agribusinesses.

Now The brainless Ukrainian stupids peasants who are now being killed by Russia are the ones who don't need to come back.
They are gradually being evicted from their property and will die after biting Russia, which is supposed to be the same Slavic people.
And afterwards, the Western capitalist brats get a bigger look at the Cossack lands as owners.

As I imagine such a future, I consider what the NATO-US military-industrial complex is doing is a 'takeover of the planet'.
The same goes for Israel. They have stripped the Palestinians of more and more land.

The essence of Western capitalism seems to be "All for takeover".

Posted by: Nokaz | Jun 25 2024 16:17 utc | 96

I think it's funny that the Jew-controlled Western Media has made the citizens of the Jew-controlled West 'forget' that Jew Victoria NewLand spent US$5Billion regime-changing Ukraine.

She also managed to replace the elected government with all the racist-supremacist Ukrainians she could find and then persuade them to bomb the crap out of Russian-speaking UKRAINIANS in Eastern Ukraine.

The plan was to get the jewed-up Ukrainian government to close down Russia's warm water naval base in Crimea to please Jewed-up US-NATO. The Jews need as many international wars and skirmishes as possible in order to draw attention from their genocide in Jewish-Occupied Palestine.

Amerikkka and Europe's Jew$lave$ are apparently happy to go along with the scam despite the ultimate cost to their declining economies.

And these are the doofuses who are going to start and win a war with China?
"It is to laugh" as Daffy Duck would say...

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jun 25 2024 16:21 utc | 97

Chris m@1559

Quite possibly the Czech people will effectuate another iteration of the Prague Spring. Circumstances and actors change, but the message is quite akin. Chances are evolving in that land as in many others. The population has come to realize that their alleged "leaders" are but puppets for the international ruling elite. By one means or another, if the current "leadership" in Prague is removed from the scene; the descendants of the Hussites will have a major impact on the entire EU/NATO infrastructure.

Picture this agglomeration: Czechia added to Slovakia, Hungary and Serbia, as an axis of resistance to the elite's agenda. Popular sentiment throughout most of central, western and Southern European states is rapidly expanding in the direction of dissolution of those encompassing institutions which no longer reflect popular will.

The Czechs are the ultimate center of "Mittel Europa". It has long been the hinge in geopolitical European affairs...consider 1938 and 1949...then reflect on the Hussite rebellion against the Holy Roman Empire and Holy Mother Church.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jun 25 2024 16:21 utc | 98

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 25 2024 16:01 utc | 90

The officer class of NATO is seemingly incapable. I'm not sure if it's nepotism, a culture of failing upwards or just good old stupidity, but they appear unwilling to learn any lessons. It's insane because that's the single benefit NATO is getting here, lots of information about doctrines and tactics and what works and what doesn't. Wasted on a bunch of careerist know nothings whose primary skill is determining the way the wind is currently blowing. It all bodes ill. The West has no strategy. It's improvising all the way down.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 25 2024 16:22 utc | 99

Dr. Gil on the cowardly, Zionazi style attack on beach going working families in Sebastopol:

"Why terrorism? Because the target in yesterday’s attack on Sevastopol, which happens to be the home port of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, was not one of the many possible naval installations. No, it was the municipal beach where, on a fine summer weekend, parents and children were out in the open.

These ATACMS were configured to carry cluster bombs and are intended to be used against field soldiers in their trenches. In the given case, the Ukrainians fired 5 ATACMS at Sevastopol, of which 4 were shot down by Russian air defenses while the fifth had, as intended, overwhelmed the system and got through to target where it brought about mayhem.

Latest reports from the office of the governor in Sevastopol are that more than 150 civilians have been injured, some seriously and under treatment in intensive care, while a number of adults and several children were killed outright."

Apparently, Medvedev suggested leveling Odessa, where the missiles are coming from. This shocked me at first as it is a historic and beautiful city filled with opponents, now forced into silence, of the Ukronazi regime.

But, just imagining these poor beachgoers getting clustered, it seems like it would be an effective response to the attack.

Obviously, all this terrorism is inversely proportional to the Ukies battlefield prospects and the idea is to goad Russia into a rash response. Still it would be nice to see the son of a bitch who fired on the beach watch the town he fired from smashed to bits.

Russia can't erase this scum fast enough!

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 25 2024 16:22 utc | 100

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