Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 27, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-151

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

Pretty slow day on the battlefield:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKguVcq-Mb4
R: Small advances in Kraz. Small advance near Siversk.
U: Small successes with counterattacks near Terny and in Vovchansk (sp?)

Oh…but “muh attrition”. Yeah, right.

Posted by: Anonymous | Jun 27 2024 13:29 utc | 1

In this archived copy of an usaid.gov page, they cheerfully admit to overthrowing governments: Democracy Rising magazine
Two people are mentioned wrt the 2004 Ukraine “Orange revolution”:
Andriy Shevchenko Back then a journalist, now a politician. “He had received media training through Internews, a USAID-funded NGO”.
– Anatoliy Rachok, director of Razumkov provided the opinion polls.

“For five years, we polled people and reported that the attitude of people towards the government was very negative. The population believed in those figures,” said Razumkov.
Then, when the Center reported that Yushchenko had really won the election, “our poll was believable and it was used by the Supreme Court” in overturning the official tally.

The article goes on to talk about the color revolutions in Georgia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Lebanon.

Posted by: Passerby | Jun 27 2024 13:44 utc | 2

When Austin calls Belousov for a chat what has he got to offer?

Posted by: too scents | Jun 27 2024 14:08 utc | 3

Oh…but “muh attrition”. Yeah, right.
Posted by: Anonymous | Jun 27 2024 13:29 utc | 1

The Narcofurher Zwlesnky today I see started to talk in interview about how Ukraine doesb’t have much time because so many people are dead and wounded. But do carry on believing, True Believer!
If interested I have fantastic investment opportunities for you! A hardly used bridge in Brooklyn, huge growth potential.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 27 2024 14:12 utc | 4

I agree with the skeptics here. The only true believers I see are the ones who have kept believing that Ukraine is about to collapse in the next 4 months for the past 2+ years. How many hundreds of posts has b made in 2022, 2023, and 2024 about the Ukrainian state about to implode, about the Ukrainians running out of men, about the country’s infrastructure about collapse? And just like Charlie Brown with the football, they never learn.
This is not even to get into “muh American economy is about to collapse”. They put up a giant debt clock in Times Square in the 1980s and ever since then the American economy is going collapse next year according to all you rural survivalists hoarding spam for the apocalypse. Yet the dollar is stronger than ever and it is Europe and Japan that are getting their @ss kicked, while individual American companies have market caps 5x the total of the Moscow stock exchange

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 14:38 utc | 5

Here, let me google that for you, so you can see with your own lying eyes:
x.com/aussiecossack/status/1806325637667532912
I didnt directly hyperlink as I suppose even anonymous geniuses can figure it out.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 27 2024 14:38 utc | 6

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 14:38 utc | 5

Interestingly, unlike you and your clown posse, people here aren’t trying to convince anyone of anything. We are analyzing events. Meanwhile your contingent is always shouting about up being down, left being right, apparently not realizing people here are generally better informed than the Twitter and reddit bullshit you’re used to.
It’s propagandizng trolls like yourselves who come in desperate to assert a worldview in the face of all available evidence. It’s the ideology, stupid. It makes everything you are saying obviously stem from your myopic tribalism. And exposes you as an establishment troll. But do carry on there may be some children who you may sway.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 27 2024 14:42 utc | 7

If interested I have fantastic investment opportunities for you! A hardly used bridge in Brooklyn, huge growth potential.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 27 2024 14:12 utc | 4
How about some prime agricultural land in Ukraine? Might need to fill in a few little potholes.

Posted by: Phil R | Jun 27 2024 14:43 utc | 8

For example everyone knows Europe is having it’s economy deindustrialized. That was always an aspect of the Maerican plan. Germany was one of the key targets…to impede growing economic ties between Russia and Germany and prevent the rise of the EU as competitor. Nordstream was destroyed in an act of Maerican sabotage and terrorissm against a supposed ally.
You clowns are arguing against bullshit straw men you yourself conjure. You’re out of your fucking league kiddos.
On the off chance you’re just some deluded NAFO kid instead of a paid disruption agent, do some fucking research.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 27 2024 14:48 utc | 9

@5
US’ monetary Ponzi scheme is going strong.
Long as the rest of the world continues to agree the scam lives.
Whole system is a scam.
A goat just crossed the bridge you used to hide under

Posted by: paddy | Jun 27 2024 14:50 utc | 10

cont.
It is true that Dima is often wrong with his predictions but when I listen to him I always trust him and for a day long I am convinced that he is absolutely right. Then, if these predictions are negative for Russians, I often post here these predictions. It is as if I hope that somebody here has an counterargument. I panic in fact.
Because Dima seems to be the best informed one with all his connections…

Posted by: vargas | Jun 27 2024 14:56 utc | 11

Might need to fill in a few little potholes.
Posted by: Phil R | Jun 27 2024 14:43 utc
Ponds 😉

Posted by: comrade simba | Jun 27 2024 14:57 utc | 12

When Austin calls Belousov for a chat what has he got to offer?
Posted by: too scents | Jun 27 2024 14:08 utc | 3
______
You mean besides bluster and bullshit?

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 27 2024 14:57 utc | 13

@ Anonymous | Jun 27 2024 13:29 utc | 1
____
Pretty desperate to act as though a selective account one day in the SMO were necessarily indicative of anything.
We really do need better trolls.

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 27 2024 15:00 utc | 14

Which side do you think will win?
Ukraine
– < 25% of Russia's population - Dwindling pool of forcibly mobilized conscripts - Little remaining domestic arms industry - Tiny remnant air force - 5 to 1 artillery disadvantage - Inferior EW capability - No navy - Limited ability to make pin-prick strikes inside Russia - 50% of electric generation capacity destroyed Russia - 4x population - Lots of volunteers for military service - Massive industrial production of arms and ammunition - Air superiority - Artillery superiority - Electronic warfare superiority - Naval superiority - Ability to strike with missiles anywhere in Ukraine - Intact energy infrastructure

Posted by: HH | Jun 27 2024 15:01 utc | 15

@vargas
There are literally no good English language sources on this war. At best you get someone like Dima who puts together Russian and Ukrainian telegram channels into English. His problem is when he tries to make his own predictions and seems to have a really bad track record.
Most Russian sources acknowledge failures and understand that this war has gone far from perfectly. The difference is that some of them are doomers (this is a big aspect of Russian culture) and some of them try to make the best of things because they are Russian and support their country. But they all know they are serious problems.
It is only in English that you get loser marginal Americans and assorted anglos who look to Putin as some sort of white knight who will make the world right (that or they often have Russian wives).
My best guess is the war is in stalemate (duh) but that the Ukrainians are coming off worse for the wear. That seems to be alright with them though and they still have plenty of men (like millions of them) they can throw into the grinder. Russians are treating this war as something a lot less existential and so the main western strategy is to make things uncomfortable for Putin so that he ultimately let’s Ukraine into nato and pays heavy reparations (meaning Russian reserves are gifted by the Russian government to Ukraine as a “goodwill gesture”). No one really expects Ukraine to take back Crimea or Donbas anymore, those dreams died with the Ukrainian counteroffensive

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 15:07 utc | 16

It is true that Dima is often wrong with his predictions but when I listen to him I always trust him and for a day long I am convinced that he is absolutely right. Then, if these predictions are negative for Russians, I often post here these predictions. It is as if I hope that somebody here has an counterargument. I panic in fact.
Because Dima seems to be the best informed one with all his connections…
Posted by: vargas | Jun 27 2024 14:56 utc | 11
So you’re not a depreso troll, but a person of goodwill with a bit of an anxiety/impulse control problem? You know the Romans had a saying about people who offer explanations before one is requested. They took it as a sign of a guilty conscience.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 27 2024 15:07 utc | 17

Posted by: Milites | Jun 26 2024 19:38 utc | 337
Agree with all you’ve said, but I think you missed my point, so I’ll try to be more precise in its delivery. Given the Allies had far more advantages, in the later stages of WW2, than the Russians do in the SMO, why does anyone think they will achieve their aims without a struggle?
I don’t agree that Russia is in any way at a material disadvantage in the SMO … quite the contrary in fact and isn’t what we are currently witnessing in Ukraine a “struggle”
It seems to me that some posters had a vastly over-inflated opinion of Russia’s military capabilities, and are now punishing them for not living up to these unrealistic expectations.
I’m sure they did but from my perspective the Russian military held back the Ukrainian army threatening to go on the offensive in the Donbas by threatening Kiev, secured a land bridge to Ukraine during the period and forced Ukraine to the bargaining table. Everyone was paying attention to kiev while the Russians rolled all the way to Kherson. That was a smart use of military force IMO.
What was surprising to me was Boris johnson’s trip to Kiev scuttling the peace talks. That was a firm message to Russia that the west wants war. I was also surprised that the Russians shrugged off “nuclear level sanctions” like it was nothing.
Russia has been spending less than 10% of what the USA does (let alone NATO) since Putin took office. In that time they focused on modernizing their strategic defences including new ICBM’s, new submarines, new air defences, new EW …. however you don’t get both a million man army that can invade other nations and strategic defence on such a small military budget … it takes a very rich country to afford to keep a million men sitting in barracks on the off chance they decide to invade some place … or at least a magic printing press.
There was no way the Russians could have brute force invaded Ukraine in 2022 but they’ve been building up that million man army since the day Boris Johnson visited kiev.
For the umpteenth time, Russia’s strategy in the SMO is the result of emphasising and leveraging her strengths, whilst minimising exposure of her weaknesses.
Russia for the most part is reacting to what the west does. Strategically the Russians have been playing regular old 2D chess. After Boris torpedoed the peace deal the Russians realized they had bitten off more than they could swallow and retreated to defensible lines. They castled, fought off a NATO planned offensive against a NATO armed and trained Ukrainian force, raised an army of 700,000 and are now in a position to fight … basic chess. They aren’t playing the long game or the short game … they are simply reacting and adjusting to events as they happen.
It takes a couple of years to properly build and train an army and for Russians the best case scenario is to get what they want politically rather than fight for it so there’s no point in rushing into thing unprepared.
This is all just my opinion.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 27 2024 15:15 utc | 18

I liked the interview with the nazi medic in Azov bitching about the mobilized having HIV and tuberculosis and being elderly. Yeah, millions of men. And the shit show that is the English media is the same campaign that has you here desperately asserting the West is winning as they push their money printer onto overdrive.
Another sign of winning is the mining of the external borders and the use of Nazi blocking detachments to stop the mobilized from surrendering or fleeing.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 27 2024 15:18 utc | 19

This is all just my opinion.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 27 2024 15:15 utc | 18

I don’t disagree at all. The accusations of believing Putin is some demigod always comes from the Western propagandists. Russias actions are, dare I say it, entirely predictable which is all the more reason Maerican leadership look like either arsonists or complete imbeciles.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 27 2024 15:23 utc | 20

@19 congratulations, Ukrainians are suffering. Mission accomplished for reuniting the Ruski Mir. The issue that people keep pointing out is Ukrainians seem ok with this suffering, and they have plenty more men to fight for years more. At a bare minimum, Ukraine has a population of 20 million, heavily skewed toward males and adults (a lot of the women and children left for Poland Germany Ireland etc). Even triumphalist Russian sources claim something like 400k Ukrainian KIA, with a couple hundred thousand more maimed (who can still operate drones though). There are plenty of men in Ukraine. If I were there, I would also be trying to get to the EU and so they take precautions to prevent them from leaving. Try reading up on what the Soviets did to draft dodgers in WW2, strictness is not a sign of imminent collapse. But there has been no uprising, even b who is hardly a nafo troll said yesterday they are getting 5000 new troops a day.

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 15:27 utc | 21

I’m sure the Ukraine will fare as well as all other American “allies” over the last 60 years.

Posted by: Sentient | Jun 27 2024 15:27 utc | 22

This is all just my opinion.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 27 2024 15:15 utc | 18
Yes, but I like your opinion. Although no chess expert and I haven’t played in a long time, I like chess and I like your comparison to regular, old 2D chess rather than all the 5D chess comparisons.

Posted by: Phil R | Jun 27 2024 15:27 utc | 23

I do not believe that Russia has to feel that threatened by the west.
Iirc the german airforce chief said in the intercepted zoom talk:
“die Engländer und Franzosen sind praktisch Winchester”
Being Winchester in airforce speak means out of ammo. I think this is the reason the US had to send ATACMS, because there were no more SCALP and Stormshadow.
Therefore I am quite sure, that Russia with a little help from North Korea is seriously winning the race for the bigger ammo bunkers.

Posted by: HEL | Jun 27 2024 15:29 utc | 24

…even b who is hardly a nafo troll said yesterday they are getting 5000 new troops a day.
Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 15:27 utc | 21
Getting or kidnapping?

Posted by: Phil R | Jun 27 2024 15:30 utc | 25

@vargas | Jun 27 2024 14:56 utc | 11
Dima, and Military Summary, deserve a great deal of credit for staying on top of the current frontlines, events on those lines (from sources of varying degrees of credibility), and producing a reasonable map. He also does a good job of mentioning events and news (from sources of varying degrees of credibility) from behind the front lines, and in the broader geopolitical arena, that are related to a given conflict. It’s a lot of work, and I’m fine with Dima monetizing that.
Dima the analyst, beyond extrapolating the next minor tactical step, is pretty terrible. His more strategic musing tend to be bad. He also puts too much stock in the words of people and groups that have track records of being wrong, or outright lying. He also tends to extrapolate based on the current trajectory of a thing without considering the underlying variables. He can also fall into clickbait alarmism / drama / hyperbole, in any number of directions, at times.
That doesn’t make him bad, but I always listen to him with the above in mind.

Posted by: Another James | Jun 27 2024 15:34 utc | 26

even b who is hardly a nafo troll said yesterday they are getting 5000 new troops a day.
Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 15:27 utc | 21
_____
Actually, no, he didn’t. This is what b said:
“Under the new mobilization law the Ukrainian military is said to recruit/mobilize some 5,000 men per day.”
“Is said to recruit/mobilize” means “claims to recruit/mobilize”, not “is recruiting/mobilizing”.
Shall I assume English is not your first language?

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 27 2024 15:38 utc | 27

This is all just my opinion.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 27 2024 15:15 utc | 18
Real good summary and insights. Thank you

Posted by: migueljose | Jun 27 2024 15:44 utc | 28

Another sign of winning is the mining of the external borders and the use of Nazi blocking detachments to stop the mobilized from surrendering or fleeing.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 27 2024 15:18 utc | 19
Thank you. Appreciate your posts.

Posted by: migueljose | Jun 27 2024 15:45 utc | 29

Getting or kidnapping?
Posted by: Phil R | Jun 27 2024 15:30 utc | 25
Beyond that there is no real proof of that number. There’s a good chance it was pulled from the air as a number that is larger than reported Ukrainian losses. Officials and commentators, from Ukraine and the West, tend to have a pretty bad record when it comes to citing numbers of things.
‘b’ reported what was reported…

Posted by: Another James | Jun 27 2024 15:45 utc | 30

… some of them are doomers (this is a big aspect of Russian culture)…
Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 15:07 utc | 16

Those doomers you mention are either click-baits trying to cash in on some hot news or libturds who run away to some other country and now try to explain to themselves and other libturds like themselves why their run was justified. Which aspect of Russian culture that might be? Bust most doomers are just CIPSO plants who pretend to be Russian. Those CIPSO plant doomers who can’t even speak language enough to pretend to be Russian nationals, pretend to be some Serbian village idiots, who listen to Dima and just get panicked. Also must be some aspect of some culture, right?

Posted by: Poslan1 | Jun 27 2024 15:55 utc | 31

If one of the very few pro-Z sources in English reports without challenging that Ukraine “is said” to be getting 5000 new troops a day, that suggests to me that the claim is not so outlandish. For the true believers here, it would seem that even b is not pure enough, not true believing enough in the absolute perfection and “trust the plan” of the Russian general staff and Putin.
If you take a step back, Russia taking 100,000 KIA, having enormous weekly drone attacks deep inside its territory, having its Black Sea navy sunk really just for fun by the British and Americans, that is all obviously part of the Russian plan. It is clearly all on purpose, and if you question that, you are just a child without the critical thinking skills exhibited by the grandpa posters from Saskatchewan who will bravely throw insults at you anonymously

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 15:58 utc | 32

Troll: “Oh…but “muh attrition”. Yeah, right.”
Indeed. The Ukraine has been hollowed out like this eggshell sculpture.
Like simply giving the sculpture a squeeze, there are so many things Russia could do to cause the Ukraine to collapse right now. Russia’s attacks on the Ukrainian power grid are so delicate, careful, and measured that all areas of the Ukraine still have some power for a portion of the day. The Russians could easily turn of the lights in the Ukraine for good, but they don’t.
Zelenskiiiyyy is still alive. Many, even the “covert” Ukrainian concern trolls posting here, whine that the Russians should take him out. That the Russians leave Zelenskiiiyyy alive is not because they cannot terminate his existence but because they don’t want to, at least not right now.
Why no FABulous fireworks in Kyyyiiivvv? Certainly the Nazi pretty bois hiding out there far from the front deserve a taste of real war to post on their TikTok channels, right?
The fact is the Russians do not want the Ukraine to collapse right now.
We can debate why. Putin afraid to get serious? Doesn’t want to burn bridges to a warm embrace by western neolibs? Russia waiting for Europe’s eventual disintegration? The Russians giving the Ukrainians more time to retake their country from the Nazis? Russia waiting for the exciting part of the decline of the US$ where it hits the steep part of the asymptotic plunge towards zero? Russia taking things slow so NATO doesn’t go even more hysterical and push the nuke button to end the world? Not enough Nazis killed yet to keep the post-Ukraine Ukrazian headchopper insurgency manageable? Waiting until the West realizes the tragedy they are inflicting upon the Ukraine and becomes ashamed of picking the already thrice beaten Ukraine off the ground and pushing them back into a fight they cannot win? Like pushing a pulverized child back into the ring against a prizefighter?
Lots of possible reasons for why the Russians don’t want the Ukraine to implode yet, so they are being careful. At the same time, the terrorist attacks by NATO/the Ukraine are clearly intended to provoke Russia into giving that hollowed out eggshell sculpture they have made of the Ukraine a frustrate squeeze.
Anyway, more interesting discussions are about why Russia has chosen not to end the Ukraine yet (note: Russia has a whole `nother army sitting unused in the Northern Military District), not trying to childishly argue that the Ukraine is somehow winning.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 27 2024 16:00 utc | 33

Posted by: Anonymous | Jun 27 2024 13:29 utc | 1
Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 14:38 utc | 5
Posted by: vargas | Jun 27 2024 14:56 utc | 11
Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 15:07 utc | 16
Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 15:27 utc | 21
————————————————-
For analytic skills and reading comprehension they should change their call sign or transponder to correspond to ‘3030.’ Ref. Posted by: HEL | Jun 27 2024 15:29 utc | 24

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jun 27 2024 16:00 utc | 34

@32
Goats safe crossing bridges, today

Posted by: paddy | Jun 27 2024 16:01 utc | 35

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 27 2024 15:15 utc | 18
It is not just your opinion. It is an acurate analysis that is time and time again being proven.
And, forecasting a Ukrainian collapse. They are in a slow motion collapse already.
Without the west they would have already completely collapsed.
Russia would be stupid to change tactics now when Ukraine’s and the West’s panic demonstrates they are working.

Posted by: GEORGE M CHAMBERLAIN | Jun 27 2024 16:03 utc | 36

This is all just my opinion.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 27 2024 15:15 utc | 18
Yes. Agreed. These are very astute observations and well explained.

Posted by: DenisSaintDenis | Jun 27 2024 16:06 utc | 37

@33 Russia doesn’t want to win yet. It is not winning yet on purpose. Russia enjoys taking more KIA in 1/ 1/2 years than America took in a dozen years in Vietnam. This is all on purpose. You must trust the plan. Putin could win tomorrow, he could do a big arrow to Odessa next month, but he doesn’t want to. You need to exhibit critical thinking skills and realize everything the RuMOD says is true. If you question the utter perfection of Putin and the Russian general staff, you are a child or worse yet a paid provocateur, sent to harass rural pro-Z North American grandpas online

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 16:13 utc | 38

@33 gruff
Yes, it seems that the obfuscators always want us to equate brute force with success. I am always reminded of the concept of the specatacle I the west that was cemented in the lexicon with Operation: Shock and Awe.
But…
What happened after. In Iraq, we were bogged down and demoralized for years trying to keep the legacy of Shock and Awe intact, but this was a fool’s errand.
Instead of using attrition as a descriptor the way this troll wants us to consider the situation, we should just remind ourselves that fast is no longer what it was and that Shock and awe (naked force) has been replaced with a tactic that is much more clever: slow-motion insanity.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Jun 27 2024 16:16 utc | 39

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 27 2024 15:15 utc | 18
Thumbs-up from me as well, just to add that I‘ve long thought that Russia has always been using the minimum necessary forces, or just above that level, rather than the maximum available forces, to conduct its SMO.
Too many people got suckered into expecting a ‘shock and awe’ style operation, which was never going to happen as the Russian forces weren’t geared up for that leading up to Feb 2022.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 27 2024 16:23 utc | 40

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 16:13 utc | 38
thats always a bit funny to compare vietnam with russia
In Vietnam a very sofisticated force fought against some rice farmers with AKs – cannot be said for ukraine
Agent Orange and other poisonous stuff was used en masse on vietnam – nothing like that happens in ukraine
Also with your casualty number – did you count in those veterans that were crippled for life or died shortly after the war because of the problems of the exposure to Agent Orange etc.?

Posted by: Macpott | Jun 27 2024 16:23 utc | 41

@33 Russia doesn’t want to win yet. It is not winning yet on purpose. Russia enjoys taking more KIA in 1/ 1/2 years than America took in a dozen years in Vietnam. This is all on purpose. You must trust the plan. Putin could win tomorrow, he could do a big arrow to Odessa next month, but he doesn’t want to. You need to exhibit critical thinking skills and realize everything the RuMOD says is true. If you question the utter perfection of Putin and the Russian general staff, you are a child or worse yet a paid provocateur, sent to harass rural pro-Z North American grandpas online
Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 16:13 utc | 38
____
Strange how you deride official Russia for such high sustained casualty figures, then turn around and advocate a course of action (a “big arrow to Odessa”) that would result in massively greater Russian losses.
I repeat: We need better trolls.

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 27 2024 16:31 utc | 42

There’s definitely a faction that wants to see Russia smash everything up, declare “mission accomplished” then spend the next 20 years grappling with, and eventually losing to, an indefatigable insurgency.
Now where have we seen that before…?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 27 2024 16:31 utc | 43

Salmon @38
Hey, fishy guy, your view of the conflict is breathtakingly stupid.
Who is Russia fighting against? Only really stupid people think it is the Ukraine. Because you seem to be one of those really stupid people, I’ll spell it out for you: Russia is fighting NATO/the American Empire. Collapsing the Ukraine at this point will not result in a decisive defeat of NATO. It will just move the battle lines to a less advantageous position for Russia.
As for the Ukraine? It is already beaten. It no longer exists as a functional country. It is a failed state. Now it is nothing more than a battleground where NATO and Russia are fighting.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 27 2024 16:33 utc | 44

Posted by: vargas | Jun 27 2024 14:56 utc | 11
As I posted on the other thread, the best counterargument to Dima’s predictions of imminent glorious Ukrainian counteroffensives, massive failures by Russia, or massive big arrow moves by either side is that he is human. And if you can show me one human with a decent track record of predicting the future, I want to know his/her name. Nostradamus?
Martin Armstrong wrote a computer program to predict the future – he calls it “Socrates.” Even that cannot give details, just generalities like the US empire is in decline and is forecast to have a big collapse around 2032.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 27 2024 16:34 utc | 45

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 15:07 utc | 16
You are daydreaming. RF will pay nothing willingly, west can try to coerce it but first west must win, whatever is win.
I actually don’t have any idea of what west consider a win.

Posted by: Mario | Jun 27 2024 16:38 utc | 46

I actually don’t have any idea of what west consider a win.

Posted by: Mario | Jun 27 2024 16:38 utc | 46
Yes, good point. I don’t think the West themselves know what they consider a “win”.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 27 2024 16:41 utc | 47

@25 Getting or kidnapping?
Same difference.

Posted by: Fred777 | Jun 27 2024 16:43 utc | 48

@44 there is a rule in life that anytime people resort to personal insults, they are right. The best way to prove you are correct is to call the other person an idiot. But one insult is not enough to prove the correctness of your cause. The more insults you use in a paragraph, the smarter you seem, and the more convincing you are.

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 16:44 utc | 49

The new Ukranian national anthem:
Where have all the flowers gone?
Long time passing
Where have all the flowers gone
Long time ago?
Where have all the flowers gone?
The girls have picked them every one
Oh, when will you ever learn?
Oh, when will you ever learn?
Where have all the young girls gone?
Long time passing
Where have all the young girls gone
Long time ago?
Where have all the young girls gone?
They’ve taken husbands every one
Oh, when will you ever learn?
Oh, when will you ever learn?
Where have all the young men gone?
Long time passing
Where have all the young men gone
Long time ago?
Where have all the young men gone?
They’re all in uniform
Oh, when will you ever learn?
Oh, when will you ever learn?

Posted by: GEORGE M CHAMBERLAIN | Jun 27 2024 16:46 utc | 50

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 14:38 utc | 5
‘This is not even to get into “muh American economy is about to collapse”. They put up a giant debt clock in Times Square in the 1980s and ever since then the American economy is going collapse next year according to all you rural survivalists hoarding spam for the apocalypse. Yet the dollar is stronger than ever and it is Europe and Japan that are getting their @ss kicked, while individual American companies have market caps 5x the total of the Moscow stock exchange’
You don’t think the debt to gdp ratio is a valid indicator. You don’t think having reserve currency status and the petro dollar is the lynchpin of US hegemony and why despite horrible fiscal policy the US has been able to carry on? Surely you can’t be THAT delusional?

Posted by: Áobh Ó’Sheachnasaigh | Jun 27 2024 16:48 utc | 51

Today’s Russian Defence Ministry report: https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/more.htm?id=12518338@egNews

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (27 June 2024)
This morning, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation delivered a group strike by long-range sea-based precision weaponry, Kinzhal hypersonic air-launched ballistic missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles at the Ukrainian airfield infrastructure, where Western-made aircraft were planned to be stored.
The goal of the strike has been achieved. All the assigned targets have been engaged.
Units of the Sever Group of Forces inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 42nd, 57th mechanised brigades, 113th, 125th, 127th territorial defence brigades near Volchansk, Neskuchnoye, and Lipsy (Kharkov region).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 190 Ukrainian troops, four armoured fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, two UK-made 155-mm FH-70 howitzers, and three 122-mm D-30 howitzers.
Units of the Zapad Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and inflicted losses on formations of the AFU 14th, 21st, and 115th mechanised brigades near Nevskoye (Lugansk People’s Republic), Sinkovka (Kharkov region), and Grigorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
One counter-attack launched by assault detachments of the AFU 63th Mechanised Brigade was repelled.
The AFU losses amounted to up to 585 Ukrainian troops, four motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, one 152-mm D-20 howitzer, one 122-mm 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and one 122-mm D-30 howitzer.
Four AFU artillery ammunition depots, one U.S.-made AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare station, and one reconnaissance radar station were destroyed.
Units of the Yug Group of Forces improved the tactical situation along the front lines, as well as inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 79th Air Assault Brigade and 46th Airmobile Brigade near Kurakhovo and Konstantinovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses amounted to more than 640 Ukrainian troops, one armoured personnel carrier, five motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, one U.S.-made 155-mm M198 howitzer, three 152-mm D-20 howitzers, and one 122-mm D-30 howitzer were eliminated.
Five AFU field ammunition depots were destroyed.
Units of the Tsentr Group of Forces improved the tactical situation and inflicted losses on formations of the AFU 24th Mechanised Brigade and 109th Territorial Defence Brigade near Novgorodskoye and Toretsk (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Six counter-attacks launched by assault detachments of the AFU 23rd, 41st, 31st, 68th mechanised brigades, and 95th Air Assault Brigade were repelled.
The AFU losses amounted to up to 345 Ukrainian troops, three motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, one 152-mm 2A65 Msta-B howitzer, four 122-mm D-30 howitzers, and one 100-mm MT-12 Rapira anti-tank gun.
Units of the Vostok Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 123rd Territorial Defence Brigade and 17th National Guard Brigade near Urozhaynoye and Velikaya Novosyolka (Donetsk People’s Republic). Two counter-attacks launched by units of the AFU 58th Motorised Infantry Brigade were repelled.
The AFU losses amounted to more than 115 Ukrainian troops, one armoured fighting vehicle, five motor vehicles, one UK-made 155-mm FH-70 howitzer, one 122-mm 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, one 122-mm D-30 howitzer, and one U.S.-made 105-mm M119 howitzer.
Units of the Dnepr Group of Forces inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 35th and 37th marines brigades near Dneprovskoye, Tokaryovka, and Otradokamenka (Kherson region).
The AFU losses amounted to up to 80 Ukrainian troops and 13 motor vehicles.
In the course of counter-battery warfare, three U.S.-made HIMARS MLRS, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, one UK-made 155-mm FH-70 howitzer, and one 122-mm 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system were destroyed.
Operational-Tactical Aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces engaged AFU manpower and hardware clusters in 117 areas during the day.
Air defence units shot down two MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force, 62 unmanned aerial vehicles, four U.S.-made Patriot air defence guided missiles, and two U.S.-made HIMARS MLRS projectiles.
In total, 615 airplanes and 276 helicopters, 26,704 unmanned aerial vehicles, 533 air defence missile systems, 16,439 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,356 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 10,963 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 23,008 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

Not quite as many troop casualties as reported in the last few days, guess Ukraine must be running out…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 27 2024 16:50 utc | 52

I wasn’t Exaggerating
Seeger found inspiration for the song in October 1955 while he was on a plane bound for a concert at Oberlin College, one of the few venues which would hire him during the McCarthy era.[6] Leafing through his notebook he saw the passage, “Where are the flowers, the girls have plucked them. Where are the girls, they’ve all taken husbands. Where are the men, they’re all in the army.”[7] These lines were taken from the traditional Cossack folk-song “Koloda-Duda” (Ukrainian: Колода-дуда), referenced in the Mikhail Sholokhov novel And Quiet Flows the Don (1934), which Seeger had read “at least a year or two before”.

Posted by: GEORGE M CHAMBERLAIN | Jun 27 2024 16:51 utc | 53

Re: Predictions of the imminent Ukrainian collapse
The US has admitted to giving Ukraine $100 billion in weapons and military aid, and the other NATO countries have given at least as much. Ukraine has lost all of the military equipment they originally had, all of the equipment given them from former Warsaw Pact countries, and now is in the process of losing all of the US/NATO equipment. Plus they have lost anywhere from 300k to 500k personnel.
If it wasn’t for US/NATO, the Ukraine would have collapsed long ago. As it is, the war will go on until they either run out of NATO gear, or Ukrainians (likely the latter before the former). I don’t think that many would have predicted how determined the US was to push this war. And the longer this goes on, the more they show their willingness to violate international laws. Short of starting a nuclear war, the US will lose in Ukraine, and will have successfully destroyed its Hollywood produced image as a beacon of freedom and fairness in the world.
To paraphrase Hemmingway, the defeat of Ukraine will happen slowly, then all at once.

Posted by: Victor Scarpia | Jun 27 2024 16:51 utc | 54

https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-sergei-kuzhugetovich-shoigu-and
Earlier this week, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued warrants for the arrest of senior Russian military officials Shoigu and Gerasimov, based on missile strikes directed at “Ukrainian electric infrastructure” between October 2022 and March 2023. The court had determined that “the expected incidental civilian harm and damage would have been clearly excessive to the anticipated military advantage” and therefore the operations failed the “principle of distinction” and caused “excessive incidental harm to civilians or damage to civilian objects.”
There are two points of interest here.
One: military operations directed at electrical infrastructure have long been part of regular doctrine. A web search will produce an extensive literature discussing such doctrine from the POV of the US military alone. Here is one example, which quotes from U.S. DOD Law of War Manual:
““Electric power stations are generally recognized to be of sufficient importance to a State’s capacity to meet its wartime needs of communication, transport, and industry so as usually to qualify as military objectives during armed conflicts.”
https://sites.duke.edu/lawfire/2022/10/27/is-attacking-the-electricity-infrastructure-used-by-civilians-always-a-war-crime/
Second: the ICC ruling claims the electrical infrastructure strikes were “clearly excessive” in their harm to civilians, without categorizing the specific harm. This ruling appears in the midst of a military campaign directed by Israel against Gaza which has been generally agreed as witnessing the most egregious violations of international humanitarian law in memory, including widespread and deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure. In context, the court’s concern may appear misplaced. Specifically, arrest warrants for Shoigu and Gerasimov have been issued, whereas the highly publicized determinations directed at Israel’s senior leadership are actually only at a stage of “application”.

Posted by: jayc | Jun 27 2024 16:52 utc | 55

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 14:38 utc | 5
############
“Market caps” do not matter in any meaningful way. If I write $1,000,000,000 on a piece of paper, is that piece of paper worth $1,000,000,000? If the US government writes $1,000,000,000 on a piece of paper is that piece of paper worth $1,000,000,000? Is there production or assets to support that claim?
The US stock market is a debt casino, that cannot survive without the USD being the global reserve currency. How has that been going over since the start of the SMO and the retarded sanctions that have backfired spectacularly?
Not to mention the corporate welfare that is intellectual property rights, where ideas become tangible and scarce like gold. Their scarcity is entirely a legal fiction. Remove the patient/copyright, and poof that “idea” goes from worth “X” to worth a fraction of “X” if not zero.
All of these folks who say Ukraine is not losing because they aren’t losing territory quickly are the same as the people who believe the dollar is strong and will remain so based on some sort of fundamental reason. It’s “magic thinking”. It’s Wonder-waffe thinking. Childish, delusional, unserious.
I’ve studied enough monetary history to know that when a currency implodes, it happens all at once, and very quickly. Only a tiny minority that guessed correctly will profit from it. Much of the hoi polloi will be burning paper money for winter heat as they did in Weimar Germany. I’ll never forget photographs from post-Soviet Russia with piles of discarded paper rubles lying around because they didn’t have purchasing power with the collapse of the state.
When the US dollar collapses, it will be fast. When Ukraine collapses it will be fast. Just because you don’t observe the peak at the moment, doesn’t mean it isn’t on a collision course. The crew of the Titanic learned that lesson the hard way.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 27 2024 16:57 utc | 56

@49 There is a rule on the Internet that posters who whine about personal insults are just paid trolls complaining about a hostile work environment.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 27 2024 16:58 utc | 57

@51 to be real for a second, American wealth does to a significant degree depend on the role of the dollar as reserve currency. Japan was fabulously wealthy in the 1980s and 90s because it had an extremely strong manufacturing export sector. The American economy in 2024 is fabulously wealthy because it exports dollars. That’s not quite the only reason, the USA also has a lot of natural resources, it has globally dominant software companies, it has a vampire squid financial industry active around the world (although that is more a story of the 2000s, not as much now). However, yes, the main “export” and source of wealth for America is the US dollar.
Where I differ from Saskatchewan grandpas is in that there is no competitor currency on the horizon for the medium term. The euro is even worse than the dollar. And China does not want to make the changes that would be necessary to have a reserve currency. To have a rival to the dollar, China would have to run persistent trade deficits in order to provide enough yuan for foreigners to hoard, it would need to open up its capital markets to have someplace liquid for foreigners to invest their yuan in. This would result in a shriveled manufacturing sector and over-financialization.
So for the next decade at least, and quite possibly well beyond that, the USA is fine, living off buying cheap sh*t from the rest of the world and giving them electronic dollars in return (not even paper money!). Also selling some LNG and having cheap energy and having everyone except China use American tech companies. But mainly the dollar.
But all these arguments are too long and too complicated. Eyes will glaze over. Better to just call people idiots and trolls, the more insults the more convincing you will be.

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 17:01 utc | 58

Russian oil price trends:
Sokol grade: 1 year ago $65.67, today $78.84
EPOS grade: 1 year ago $67.02, yesterday (1 day reporting delay) $79.90
Urals grade: 1 year ago $54.75, last report 24 May 2024 $67.61
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/
Wasn’t there supposed to be a Western imposed ceiling price? Above which Russia “wouldn’t be allowed” to sell its oil?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 27 2024 17:08 utc | 59

The best way to prove you are correct is to call the other person an idiot. But one insult is not enough to prove the correctness of your cause. The more insults you use in a paragraph, the smarter you seem, and the more convincing you are.
Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 16:44 utc | 49

People are calling you an idiot not because of the things you claim to believe, however stupid they are. People are calling you an idiot because you really-really think that all the bullshit you bring here is something new and original and haven’t been tried over here dozens of times before by dozens of trolls much better than you are. It is not the matter of anyone’s cause being correct or not, it’s just like you lost your virginity yesterday and deside to go to a brothel to teach the kind ladies how to fuck. “Idiot” is even polite.

Posted by: Poslan1 | Jun 27 2024 17:11 utc | 60

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 17:01 utc | 58
Where your post goes fundamentally wrong is your presumption that a multipolar, multicentric trading world needs an all-encompassing reserve currency. It’s absolutely not necessary in a world with bilateral or bloc-based multilateral trade and currency agreements and arrangements.
You should look up Michael Hudson, read and watch interviews and podcasts with him.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 27 2024 17:15 utc | 61

@60 see this is what I am talking about. There must have been at least 10 high quality personal insults in just that one short paragraph. Including powerful words like brothel and fuck, that really show you mean it. It is best to insult anonymously for extra intelligence points. Really just a perfect example of pro-Z at its galaxy brain best, here at the “bar”
The only thing that was missing, if I may criticize such a fine piece of critical thinking, is the lack of vaxx wuflu skepticism (of course couched in personal insults). Then you would really have been an 11 out of 10

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 17:19 utc | 62

There really is a Times article as described in this TG post.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/114600

🇷🇺 Russian traitors preparing to destabilize Russia.
The Times claims that former MP’s who fled Russia are preparing a terrorist plan for the NATO summit, which includes assassinations and forceful destabilization of the situation in Russia.
According to the newspaper, the plan was discussed at a meeting of former MP’s in Warsaw. It includes calls for the West to impose more sanctions against Russia and to support actions to destabilize the situation within the country.
Furthermore, it involves criminal offenses such as the assassination of government officials and attempts to forcibly change the government.
This proposal will be presented at the 75th NATO summit in Washington early next month, the publication states.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 27 2024 17:21 utc | 63

Many people misunderstand “reserve currency” and “export dollars”, because there is no need for the former in a world of floating exchange rates and what the USA exports is not dollars so much as ownership of USA assets. Anyone owning dollars can easily convert to ownership of USA real estate (land and buildings), USA corporate stocks and bonds, USA direct investment (foreign corporation builds factories in USA). USA government debt (including currency) is merely one of many options (such debt effectively is ownership of part of future labor of USA tax). To understand how much of USA wealth is owned by foreigners, add up cumulative USA trade deficits (actually current account, since USA citizens also own foreign assets and receive income not related to trade). If this number gets too big, USA will eventually be effectively owned by foreigners so USA workers will spend part of each year working for foreigners. There will be no collapse, just the poverty associated with being victim of colonial exploitation: USA the colony, foreign owners the effective colonialists.

Posted by: anonposter | Jun 27 2024 17:22 utc | 64

@62 Complain to your supervisor. Maybe they will reassign you to TwiterX.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 27 2024 17:23 utc | 65

@62 Complain to your supervisor. Maybe they will reassign you to TwiterX.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 27 2024 17:23 utc | 66

@ Poslan1 | Jun 27 2024 17:11 utc | 60 responding to a recent troll at MoA…thanks
Salman | Jun 27 2024 17:01 utc | 58 wrote

Where I differ from Saskatchewan grandpas is in that there is no competitor currency on the horizon for the medium term.

Your spouting BS like this does not make it real. What are the BRICS+ folks working on if not an alternative financial system to the God Of Mammon private one of the West?
You write that the new financial system has to be like the existing with one country “owning/fronting for the private owners” the money system. The alternative being developed is going to be like the bancor arrangement that was proposed back in Bretton Woods days.
You may find your textual tripe will have a more receptive audience over at ALMOST nakedcapitalism.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 27 2024 17:26 utc | 67

I can perfectly understand why Putin is reticent.
If the posters here are representative of Ukraine, I wouldn’t want the country either.

Posted by: Passerby | Jun 27 2024 17:26 utc | 68

@61 for all you good hearted America must fall knuckleheads out there, you need a reserve currency because trade is not balanced. China for example likes to run a very large trade surplus. Without a reserve currency, there is no mechanism to allow for persistent trade deficits or trade surpluses.
Incidentally, this has turned out to be a problem with Russia India trade post sanctions. India wanted to run trade bilaterally, but Russia was accumulating a ton of rupees because it ran a large surplus with India, and had no use for those rupees. Russia tried to move the trade over to yuan, but 1) India is not very keen on using yuan, and 2) yuan is not a freely convertible store of value because China has capital controls

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 17:28 utc | 69

As for the Ukraine? It is already beaten. It no longer exists as a functional country. It is a failed state. Now it is nothing more than a battleground where NATO and Russia are fighting.
Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 27 2024 16:33 utc | 44
That’s the reality.
The US and it’s vassals fighting Russia in the carcass of the Ukraine.
Because the second they the US stop.
It’s over for them as a superpower where the US can bully and destroy other people without real harm in the US.
It’s team America’s last roll of the dice.
Best observation on this squalid butchers bill.

Posted by: jpc | Jun 27 2024 17:30 utc | 70

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 17:28 utc | 69
What to do with currency imbalances huh? Tsk, tsk…
Wonder if I can think of a commodity that can be purchased with any currency…?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 27 2024 17:33 utc | 71

This forum is full of fanboys who get butthurt at anything that seems critical of Russias. Fact is, Russia is weak compared to NATO and always has been. If NATO gave Ukraine all of its ATACAMs and other missiles and allowed Ukraine to hit whatever targets it wanted (other than nuke related), Russia would be in deep trouble. Russia has no choice but to go slow. It isn’t 5D, 4D or even 3D chess Russia is playing. It’s 2D, in the sense Russia has more than just a single 1D option, but it doesn’t have infinite options either. They are constrained and forced to fight the hard way. But it doesn’t matters because Ukraine political support and manpower are being attrited while Russia is stronger in both aspects than at the start of the war. Zelensky’s public support among Ukrainian people is low and falling, morale in the Ukrainian military is low and falling, Ukrainian military manpower quality is low and falling, political support for Ukraine outside Ukraine is low and falling. All Russia has to do is stay the course and avoid escalation that might bring an energized NATO into Ukraine.

Posted by: anonposter | Jun 27 2024 17:33 utc | 72

If NATO gave Ukraine all of its ATACAMs and other missiles

Posted by: anonposter | Jun 27 2024 17:33 utc | 72
Then both NATO and Ukraine would very quickly run out of missiles and have no readily available means of resupply, at least not without huge price increases.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 27 2024 17:40 utc | 73

No one cares what the trolls think. Interestingly, India is clearly continuing its trade with Russia. If the trade deficit comes primarily from energy, while Russia wants to increase overall industrial capacity, the best solution is for India to produce military equipment that Russia would want.
The problem, of course, is India running afoul of American sanctions, but with a Chinese trade war brewing and a HUGE diaspora in America, it wouldn’t be wise to make an issue of it.

Posted by: They Call Me Mister | Jun 27 2024 17:43 utc | 74

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 17:28 utc | 69
Shure it can be done as it had be done in the past, when pounds, mark, franc, Swiss franc shared the role of reference currency.
One thing is having to reinvest more or less forcibly your trade excess in the country you made the trade excess, like in the petrodollar. Different thing is being free to invest your trade excess wherever you like.

Posted by: Mario | Jun 27 2024 17:43 utc | 75

@anonposter | 72
Haha, look at you guys. “Fact is, Russia is weak compared to NATO and always has been.” Haha.
It’s a FACT. A FACT! A __FACT__ YOU SAY!
Never mind that NATO can’t even impose their will on Yemen, a starving country, 10 years into a gruesome Western-incited war.
A “FACT” you say, it is. Hah, did you stomp your little foot when you said that?
More seriously though, people come here to get better informed opinions than the mainstream offers. If you want to bathe in your echo chamber I suggest going someplace else.

Posted by: Roland | Jun 27 2024 17:44 utc | 76

Actually, seeing all these new names of posters popping up lately I wonder if any of them happen to know the current whereabouts of Ukraine’s national gold reserves. They were last seen being loaded onto aircraft just after the Maidan coup. Any of you noobs know any more?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 27 2024 17:44 utc | 77

Salmon the Fishy Guy refers to the MoA readers/posters as a monolithic block: ”… you guys…”, in essence. That is proof that the poster did not come here to be a participant in discourse, but rather to ”educate” the forum and ”set MoA straight”.
Sounds strangely like that paid DNC troll we had here some time back that was always changing its username… what did that troll start with, DonkeyAss, or something?

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 27 2024 17:44 utc | 78

All Russia has to do is stay the course and avoid escalation that might bring an energized NATO into Ukraine.
Posted by: anonposter | Jun 27 2024 17:33 utc | 72

Utter delusion. All the Kings horses and all the Kings men couldn’t put Ukraine together again. You could, if you had a magic wand, teleport all the NATO assets into the theater and they would have the effect of ..exact words I used previously…pissing into a tornado.
NATO has been comprensively exposed in Ukraine as a paper tiger. The officer class are strutting peacocks, the doctrines outdated, the hardware overpriced underperforming trash. (Hello, F35!) NATO is all set to fight the next 90s war. Too bad they’ll have to invent a time machine first.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 27 2024 17:45 utc | 79

@71 oh I sense a Eurasian multipolarity specialist here! The only wrench in using a commodity like oil in place of the dollar is that commodity prices fluctuate wildly. The dollar is a much more stable store of value. This is also the issue with gold by the way. When you have a store of value, you want something universally accepted and also relatively stable. That is the dollar now, the British pound 100 years ago, and the Chinese yuan in 20 years if the Chinese decide to eviscerate their manufacturing industry and run persistent trade deficits to create enough yuan supply globally for it to serve as a real rival or replacement to the dollar.
Oh yeah I forgot, the global supply of oil or natural gas or gold is not nearly enough to cover the amount of value you would need to replace the dollar. There are many tens of trillions of dollars in notional circulation. There is not tens of trillions of dollars worth of oil or gold out there to use as electronic chits

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 17:45 utc | 80

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 17:45 utc | 80
Epic fail, I wasn‘t referring to oil. Think again about a commodity that is entirely fungible across pretty well all currencies.
Hint: it’s atomic number is 79…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 27 2024 17:52 utc | 81

A lot of people in this bar seem to be interested in the timing of the collapse of the Ukrainian front.
I don’t care if it is sooner or later, but what is clear is that Russia is fighting with its own weapons and fuel, while Ukraine is borrowing everything.
So the only question is whether the US and the EU will give up their budgets and weapons supplies to Ukraine, and what happens in their national parliaments?
So when the aid money and aid weapons stop, we can just judge that it’s time to “game end”.

Posted by: Nokaz | Jun 27 2024 17:56 utc | 82

@72 this is an intelligent post that explains why Putin comes across as such a pussy. He tries to do just enough not to get massive escalation from the USA and Europe. It also explains why no nato unmanned drone shoot downs (scary!), why the “thank you sir may I have another” Russian attitude to new western weapon systems introduced in theater. And yet it ends with a very plausible take that this way still lies Russian victory, not glamorous and not fast, but the only kind that is available given the constraints that Russia faces. Really I suppose the only other plausible Russian alternative would be crazy man “I’m going to nuke everyone if I don’t get my way” that I would imagine Kim jong un doing if he were in Putin’s shoes

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 17:59 utc | 83

Those who think NATO is weak need to explain why those ATACAMs and Storm Shadows are causing problems already for Russia. NATO has thousands more such missiles in stock, plus more advanced versions than what has been handed Ukraine. This is not a war Russia wants. NATO has been cautious because they were worried Russia might literally “go ballistic”. As NATO gets less worried, it will hurt Russia more. Russia has been cautious and continues to be cautious because they know just how dangerous NATO is, and because Putin had less domestic political support and Russia has less international political support than at the start of the war.
Someone mentioned than I want an echo chamber. Excuse me, but the fan boys here are the ones who appear to want an echo chamber.

Posted by: anonposter | Jun 27 2024 18:00 utc | 84

I don’t think that many would have predicted how determined the US was to push this war. …
Posted by: Victor Scarpia | Jun 27 2024 16:51 utc | 54
In 1980, CS Gray formulated what the ruling class in the USA dreams of in the confrontation with the nuclear power Russia: Victory is possible!
Hence the termination of the ABM Treaty in 2001, and INF in 2019. The nuclear power Russia is to be destroyed, and for this they even risk the demise of their instrument of power, the EU. Much later than I expected, the first North Koreans are supposed to come and learn war with NATO – the Chinese won’t miss that either and Putin will have to reward them for their efforts with fertile Ukrainian soil – but Definitely better in the west of Ukraine, so that the US kindergarten think tanks can enjoy their strategic total loss to the fullest.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Jun 27 2024 18:01 utc | 85

NYT tells us (again) about Russian human wave attacks and Russia’s 500,000 killed or wounded. This reminds me of Walter Cronkite’s weekly body counts of NVA and NLF when I was a kid…
Russia Sends Waves of Troops to the Front in a Brutal Style of Fighting

More than 1,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine were killed or wounded on average each day in May, according to NATO and Western military officials.
….
Russia’s use of infantry in wave attacks reflects one of its advantages in the war: Its population is much larger than Ukraine’s, giving it a bigger pool of potential recruits.
But the casualties have forced Russia to ship new recruits to Ukraine relatively quickly, meaning that the soldiers sent to the front are poorly trained.
The lack of structured training, and the need to commit new recruits to combat operations, has limited Russia’s ability to generate more capable units. It also increases casualties.

Posted by: upstater | Jun 27 2024 18:02 utc | 86

The trolls here seem to define winning as territory taken but if the line of contact doesn’t move an inch the rest of the war Europe will be politically overturned as recent election show and economically devastated by de-industrialization and rendered geopolitically irrelevant. The U.S. is exposed as a fraud with a corporate military designed for embezzlement not war as it careens to insolvancy and whose political standing in the world has never been lower. This is winning. Militarily defeating Ukraine is the icing on the cake.

Posted by: NewWorldDisorder | Jun 27 2024 18:04 utc | 87

Fishy Guy to the poster in the next cubicle over: ”Yours is an intelligent post!”
MoA is a tough crowd. Trolls never come here without backup.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 27 2024 18:05 utc | 88

@88 there are trolls, cia kgb mi6, everywhere I look. Quick, put on your special tin foil hat to protect from the microchips in the vaxx!

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 18:08 utc | 89

Rather than think for himself it appears that the poster Salman is using ChatGPT to formulate his posts. Just out of idle curiosity I fired an instance, put the posts he‘s replying to in as input and, lo and behold, the responses have an almost word-for word likeness, although of course correlation is not causation.
In the light of this I’m going to disregard that poster.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 27 2024 18:11 utc | 90

Posted by: NewWorldDisorder | Jun 27 2024 18:04 utc | 87
The trolls here define winning as whatever the Russians aren’t doing.
If tomorrow Putin were to walk on water, they would say he can’t swim.

Posted by: Passerby | Jun 27 2024 18:11 utc | 91

@lol it’s an AI! ChatGPT is trolling us! Put on the hats!

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 18:15 utc | 92

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 14:38 utc | 5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
All smoking mirrors. The $ is finished.

Posted by: AI | Jun 27 2024 18:15 utc | 93

Posted by: Anonymous | Jun 27 2024 13:29 utc | 1
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
You’re right no much today in the battlefield. Just 2,200 ukrainian death bodies over the last 24 hours.

Posted by: AI | Jun 27 2024 18:18 utc | 94

Posted by: GEORGE M CHAMBERLAIN | Jun 27 2024 16:46 utc | 50
Can’t do as well as your effort, just a humble limerick:
There once was a country, Ukraine
That exported gas fuel and grain
But its political parties
Filled up with Nazis
And it was never heard from again

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 27 2024 18:19 utc | 95

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 15:07 utc | 16
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Country 404 will lose the entire Novorossiya region which is Russian, you know like Taiwan is Chinese. Not if no buts. As a reminder on June 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin named the preconditions for a settlement in Ukraine. They include withdrawal of Ukrainian armed forces from Donbass and Novorossiya and Kiev’s rejection of accession to NATO. In addition, Russia considers the withdrawal of all Western sanctions and establishment of non-aligned non-nuclear status of Ukraine necessary for that. Putin pointed out that, if Ukraine and the West reject these conditions, they may change in the future.

Posted by: AI | Jun 27 2024 18:26 utc | 96

Posted by: anonposter | Jun 27 2024 18:00 utc | 84
Yeah, they have gazillions.
Atacms production, by public information, is 500 a year.

Posted by: Mario | Jun 27 2024 18:27 utc | 97

In the course of counter-battery warfare, three U.S.-made HIMARS MLRS

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 27 2024 16:50 utc | 52
They also reported three HIMARS yesterday:

Operational-Tactical aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, and Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces wiped out three U.S.-made HIMARS MLRS launchers, as well as one loading vehicle and foreign specialists responsible for its use.

Is there any chance they could be counting the same launchers twice? Otherwise that’s a pretty impressive blow to take out six launchers. And now they claim to be taking out Patriot missiles. How close do you have to get so shoot down anti-missile missiles?

Posted by: Jim12 | Jun 27 2024 18:45 utc | 98

@96 we must always trust the plan. Show critical thinking skills by believing everything Putin and the RoMOD say. Except in those rare cases when even they admit to mistakes in the SMO, then it is maskirovka

Posted by: Salman | Jun 27 2024 18:48 utc | 99

No wars happen without mistakes from either side.
Yes, Russia f*cks it up sometimes, just as their opponents f*ck it up sometimes (well, more often isn’t it).
One of the keys to success is to be able to learn from one’s own mistakes and from the enemies’.
And it never goes fully to plan. Stupid people stick to a stupid plan – and I’m sure that Russia is now fully able to adjust their plans for their own maximum value.

Posted by: Verdant | Jun 27 2024 18:53 utc | 100