News & views (related to the war in Ukraine) …
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June 21, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-147
News & views (related to the war in Ukraine) …
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Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 24 2024 15:18 utc | 480 Posted by: grunzt | Jun 24 2024 20:36 utc | 501 Posted by: Anonymous | Jun 24 2024 20:09 utc | 497 Posted by: Milites | Jun 24 2024 20:57 utc | 502 I don’t understand why anyone is talking about Odessa as a near-term goal. It’s not feasible in a weeks-or-months timescale without a big-arrow ground offensive force that does not exist and cannot be conjured without further Russian militarization. The other way to get to Odessa is a general collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces’ capability to fight. If that’s what you demand then talk plainly about a AFU collapse, your primary objective, rather than confuse the matter by focusing on goals like Odessa that can only become clear after the primary objective is met Posted by: a stone | Jun 24 2024 21:03 utc | 503 Posted by: wagelaborer | Jun 22 2024 23:41 utc | 272 Posted by: Constantine | Jun 24 2024 21:06 utc | 504 9. I’m a little intrigued by Napoleon and Micron. Maybe we should found a forum of people with a clue and interesting discussion. It’ not even them being similar to me (though they are). But of them being truth seeking. Posted by: Newbie | Jun 24 2024 21:25 utc | 505 Berdychi Bob is back! Yay(or something like that anyway)!! Though his cognitive dissonance, as he tries to engage reverse justification gear, is audibly crunching like a badly driven constant-mesh transmission. Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 24 2024 21:34 utc | 506 @Posted by: grunzt | Jun 24 2024 20:36 utc | 499 Scuttlebutt appearing about a NATO drone flying over the Black Sea doing an imitation of a product made by Boeing, and going down. Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 24 2024 21:40 utc | 508 In response to Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 24 2024 22:01 utc | 509 The best retaliation against these terrorist attacks is to… Posted by: MiniMO | Jun 24 2024 22:01 utc | 510 The west would escalate because it can. Posted by: vargas | Jun 24 2024 22:16 utc | 511 In reality western governments want you dead, they certainly do not care about your input nor opinions on geopolitical matters. Posted by: James M. | Jun 24 2024 22:37 utc | 512 One of those was a rare referendum that was voted on. The other two were not even an issue that got someone elected. Bush was proved to have lied about his illegal reason for invading Iraq and Americans re-elected him. Posted by: James M. | Jun 24 2024 22:52 utc | 513 I don’t understand why anyone is talking about Odessa as a near-term goal. Posted by: James M. | Jun 24 2024 22:58 utc | 514 JamesM actually has a good point (as he does…very occasionally) that perhaps the metric should be rate versus 4 oblasts, not UKR overall. Of course that is still…going to take OVER a decade (perhaps after Putin’s lifetime, given rate of advance). And it’s NOT going to satisfy the Odessa, Lviv, etc. fantasists (who we do hear often hear, unless beaten down). Posted by: James M. | Jun 24 2024 23:05 utc | 515 All the goats in the world can cross any bridge they want. Posted by: paddy | Jun 24 2024 23:28 utc | 516
I lost track of the argument here, but this wording allows me to chime right in: Posted by: persiflo | Jun 24 2024 23:28 utc | 517 If the game is rigged against you, there’s no point in playing, as an old barfly liked to say. Posted by: James M. | Jun 24 2024 23:49 utc | 518 On Crimea beach attack deaths and injuries ….. Vladimir Zelensky’s adviser Mikhail Podoliak defended the strike – and not for the first time – by claiming there are no civilians in Crimea, only Russian “occupiers.” Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 25 2024 0:12 utc | 519 Constantine@502 cites no evidence, much less quotes me, to demonstrate the terrible charges. I am vicious in quoting comments I argue with, unlike Constantine, who won’t play dirty like that. Even worse, the charges Constantine makes are completely incoherent: On the one hand I am compared to Slavoj Zizek, who at least is world famous, and an “imperialist bot.” There’s no way one can be both at the same time! Any rebuttal worth reading would pick one. Posted by: steven t johnson | Jun 25 2024 0:20 utc | 520 on retaliation – Posted by: Roger | Jun 24 2024 21:35 utc | 505 Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 25 2024 0:27 utc | 521 Seriously? It’s me against the entire western outlaw empire and Billion$ spent of censorship and propaganda, and I and anyone else in the west, or the entire world, can beat them at their own game. Posted by: James M. | Jun 25 2024 0:33 utc | 522 Oh have some cheese with your whine. Do you think you’re seriously alone, with your martyr complex? Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 25 2024 0:52 utc | 523 James M.@520 “How did he win in 2016? Trump had the entire establishment and media against him?” Answer to second question first, Trump did not have the entire establishment against him. Anti-establishment candidates do not have the financing detailed here: https://www.opensecrets.org/pres16/candidate?id=n00023864 Clinton had more money but the establishment favored Trump with millions. Nor did Trump have the entire media against him, he got billions in free publicity. The right-wing media are still part of the mainstream but they were not against Trump, especially not in the general. It was Sanders who had the entire media against him and didn’t get publicity, even though his winning primaries should have led to hyping the horse race with an underdog story. The facts are against you. Posted by: steven t johnson | Jun 25 2024 1:18 utc | 525 Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 24 2024 12:59 utc | 463 Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 25 2024 1:33 utc | 526 Fuck off then. You’re an abusive blathering fool. Not going to read another word of your endless spam. Blocked Posted by: James M. | Jun 25 2024 2:02 utc | 527 Call me naive, but perhaps this was the week when Ukraine’s PR bubble burst. Posted by: Technophobe | Jun 25 2024 2:06 utc | 528 Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 25 2024 1:33 utc | 524 Posted by: watcher | Jun 25 2024 2:34 utc | 529 I would just emphasize that’s because all factions of the MSM, not just the right wingers in Fox and Sinclair et al., but all turned against him. And being me I would add that Trump never faced universal hostility from the MSM, despite the persecution mania of Trumpers (who I still believe have their own version of Trump Derangement Syndrome, where Trump=God and Biden=Devil, instead of the other way round. T Posted by: Constantine | Jun 25 2024 3:13 utc | 530 Also, the Crimean attack is being covered in the West and I think many are seeing the terroristic nature of Ukraine and its sponsors for the first time. Posted by: James M. | Jun 25 2024 3:41 utc | 531 Posted by: watcher | Jun 25 2024 2:34 utc | 527 Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 25 2024 3:54 utc | 532 Attrition math: Posted by: HughBahlz | Jun 25 2024 4:10 utc | 533 PS Vietnam? The same as now, next to no one is Australia gives a shit about the Ukraine war – no protests of note, no nothing. The country and the population the entire news media is pro-ukraine pro-USA pro-Nato and pro-War Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 25 2024 4:13 utc | 534 9. I’m a little intrigued by Napoleon and Micron. Maybe we should found a forum of people with a clue and interesting discussion. It’ not even them being similar to me (though they are). But of them being truth seeking. Posted by: Micron | Jun 25 2024 5:30 utc | 535 Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 25 2024 3:54 utc | 530 Posted by: watcher | Jun 25 2024 5:38 utc | 536 Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 25 2024 4:13 utc | 532 Posted by: watcher | Jun 25 2024 5:44 utc | 537 One more year of this rate of attrition would completely destroy the Ukrainian army. Something has to give Posted by: James M. | Jun 25 2024 6:12 utc | 538 @Posted by: James M. | Jun 25 2024 6:12 utc | 536
The 30-40 year old male population in Ukraine controlled territory is probably in the region of 1.25 million. Then add in the 40-50 year olds and we get perhaps another 2 million. So in total about 3.85 million possible male recruits (I have discounted the 50-60 year age group given issues of health in that age group, and also probable health issues in the 40-50 year olds). Losses are quite possibly at close to 1 million, given deaths, missing in action, irretrievably wounded (both physically and mentally), and taken prisoner. Many months ago there were already reports of 50,000 soldiers that required artificial limbs. Reports from the ground already point to major male labor shortages, the definition of “healthy and fit” being significantly reduced, and the widespread need to press gang new conscripts. Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 25 2024 0:27 utc | 519 Posted by: Jan Sobieski | Jun 25 2024 6:59 utc | 540 a good review with extra info from simplicius Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 25 2024 7:42 utc | 541 Posted by: watcher | Jun 25 2024 5:44 utc | 535 Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 25 2024 7:49 utc | 542 @Roger | Tue, 25 Jun 2024 06:57:00 GMT | 537
Yes, I considered that. But if Ukraine’s mobilization is based on a population of 20 million total than they can probably only mobilize 3 million, or maybe 4 million, which they are pretty close to already. And 600,000 to 800,000 KIA is the probable maximum they can endure. If Russia’s numbers are accurate, then half a million dead already, plus another million wounded and/or discharged, plus 50,000 KIA a month. That would mean, at the very latest, assuming maximal mobilization and maximum casualty infliction by the Russians, October this was is over. Posted by: James M. | Jun 25 2024 8:02 utc | 543 We should not forget that its not just ukrainians fighting and being mobilized. Theres also the unknown numbers of mercenaries beeing shipped in continiously from countries like colombia or regions like the middle east. Posted by: Justpassinby | Jun 25 2024 8:32 utc | 544 Posted by: Jan Sobieski | Jun 25 2024 6:59 utc | 538 Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 25 2024 8:33 utc | 545 It is understandable at a glance that Stoltenberg‘s chromosomes are all jumbled up to fuck and this is why he still cannot appreciate that any nation preferentially supplying arms to an ongoing conflict had made itself party to that conflict. The question has moved on to which nations have gone so far as to make themselves combatants.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 25 2024 8:59 utc | 546 This war on memory, as Guy Mettan terms it, is in our view a pernicious, quite significant dimension of ethnic cleansing. In Part 2 of his “Report from Donbas,” Mettan takes us to some of the places where this war is waged to show us how the people of Donetsk and Lugansk, once again Russian by choice, defend their sites of memory as a matter of defending themselves. Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 25 2024 9:17 utc | 547 Something in the air?
https://x.com/Podolyak_M/status/1805171253755412849
https://x.com/Panchenko_X/status/1805219385000276138
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/114317
https://x.com/GunterFehlinger/status/1805181132423487495
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/56613
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/54763
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 25 2024 9:25 utc | 548 That would mean, at the very latest, assuming maximal mobilization and maximum casualty infliction by the Russians, October this was is over. Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jun 25 2024 10:00 utc | 549 I see that Russia and Serbia….since the FT revelation of Serbian arms manufacturing ends up in Ukraine…are consequently “meeting to discuss security threats related to military supplies”…I await the outcome. Posted by: Jo | Jun 25 2024 10:30 utc | 550 According to Military Summary, Ukraine reported they were able to mobilize 5000 people in a single day, more than replace losses according to RU MOD report. This is most likely due to the intensive preparation for the next offensive in Zaporozhye and perhaps Kharkov region, which is demanded by Ukraine’s western sponsors. Posted by: unimperator | Jun 25 2024 10:35 utc | 551 Ukraine’s army being destroyed. Posted by: Oliver Krug | Jun 25 2024 10:36 utc | 552 Posted by: unimperator | Jun 25 2024 10:35 utc | 549 Posted by: Mario | Jun 25 2024 10:54 utc | 553 According to Military Summary, Ukraine reported they were able to mobilize 5000 people in a single day Posted by: rk | Jun 25 2024 11:08 utc | 554 It is clear that Ukraine has green light to commit any atrocity of any magnitude in Russia. Europeans, rich or poor would even love that to happen as everybody hates Russia there. Posted by: vargas | Jun 25 2024 11:27 utc | 555
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 25 2024 9:25 utc | 546
I’ll spell it out in cleartext: it’s after the war in Ukraine has stopped that our problems begin. Posted by: Passerby | Jun 25 2024 11:33 utc | 556 @554, Posted by: JamesBond | Jun 25 2024 11:39 utc | 557 Posted by: JamesBond | Jun 25 2024 11:39 utc | 557 Posted by: Mario | Jun 25 2024 11:56 utc | 558 The west is getting more erratic and frustrated, so they escalate wherever possible, like with those meaningless icc warrants. Posted by: Justpassinby | Jun 25 2024 12:55 utc | 559 oldhippie got a lot of nonsense rolling by doubting antiwar activity occurring in 1964. While stating explicitly this had been and I was continuing a discussion about antiwar in USA. Posted by: oldhippie | Jun 25 2024 14:34 utc | 560 @ grunzt, §501: Posted by: John Marks | Jun 25 2024 16:32 utc | 561 @Posted by: Justpassinby | Jun 25 2024 8:32 utc | 544 @Roger | Tue, 25 Jun 2024 17:54:00 GMT | 562
The number is probably even far less than that. I would guess less than 10,000 in total, and maybe closer to 5,000 or less. Their presence has always been exaggerated. Posted by: James M. | Jun 25 2024 22:16 utc | 563 Mediazona updated their figures on friday and it’s nowhere near 10,000 a month. From 24th May until 21st June they added 2,677 names. As they just slot names into the date they died, this is more likely to be due to them catching up on stuff they missed, rather than recent deaths (they’ve been doing some in depth investigation into Wagner casualties). They don’t give a breakdown so you’d have to compare with their last update. But they haven’t even found 2,000 deaths in the last three months. Here are the totals they’ve reported for this year by month: Posted by: Newbie | Jun 26 2024 3:17 utc | 564 Constantine@530 finally cites evidence of my multitudinous sins. I quote myself@419 first: “I would just emphasize that’s because all factions of the MSM, not just the right wingers in Fox and Sinclair et al., but all turned against him. And being me I would add that Trump never faced universal hostility from the MSM, despite the persecution mania of Trumpers (who I still believe have their own version of Trump Derangement Syndrome, where Trump=God and Biden=Devil, instead of the other way round.” Posted by: steven t johnson | Jun 26 2024 4:27 utc | 565 John Marks | Jun 25 2024 16:32 utc | 561 Posted by: grunzt | Jun 26 2024 13:31 utc | 566 Hitler was also defeated buy the merciless Soviet attack, not by culture or humanism. Posted by: Oliver Krug | Jun 26 2024 15:36 utc | 567 No way – the Führer was an anglophile and about as russophobic as can be Posted by: grunzt | Jun 26 2024 16:19 utc | 568 No way – the Führer was an anglophile and about as russophobic as can be Posted by: Oliver Krug | Jun 26 2024 16:48 utc | 569 |
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