News & views (related to the war in Ukraine) …
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June 21, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-147
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ROFLMAO… NATO has never had a strategy. They just continue to throw shit against the wall to see if anything sticks.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jun 22 2024 14:07 utc | 195
Sure they had a strategy … “create a situation where Russia has no choice but to invade Ukraine then destroy the country with “nuclear level” sanctions”.
The thinking went that six months without MacDonalds and Disney princesses Russians would have strung Putin up on a lamppost fuelled by severe Starbucks withdrawl.
Once that failed everything else has been improvised. Obviously the numbers point to NATO losing a war of attrition against a united Russia with China at their back but politicians are running the show and their areas of expertise lies in the ability to get re-elected.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 22 2024 14:31 utc | 201
Don Bacon@111 Sorry, no Syrians and their allies did not just leave the territory abandoned while Trump was president until Biden sent troops back in. They never left and your claim is grossly delusional. That sort of stuff really is Trump Derangement Syndrome.
Not TDS is citing Trump’s plan to leave Afghanistan in another presidential term. Biden did not follow through Trump’s planned schedule. When he (strictly speaking his team, Biden has always been a creature of his staff so far as I can tell, which is why his age-related mental declines doesn’t have the significance attached to it*) decided to re-deploy US forces instead, it was an independent decision. Credit Trump, credit Biden. That’s a single standard. Not crediting “Biden” is a double standard, a lie. And ignoring the point that both the main factions of the MSM turned on Biden while claiming all the MSM was persecuting Trump is TDS too.
It is not a choice between Trump being an emperor who can simply order a peace in Korea and being Oliver Twist begging for more food. The US Constitution was written so that the president exercised many of a king’s royal prerogatives in foreign affairs (a point Anti-Federalists made at ratification campaigns by the way.) That is a false dichotomy, a fallacious argument. If Trump wanted he had many many powers to break down opposition, especially in the bureaucracy where judicious use of appointments and executive orders can take effect. If Trump really wanted peace in Korea he would have exercised those powers. He could have kept the issue alive, it’s not like the Republican Party was going to turn on him, they aren’t nineteenth century Whigs repudiating Tyler. It was some goofy PR stunt, not a policy, not an idea in any significant terms. And if he was serious, starting with “Rocket Man” is truly weird.
And the new claim that Trump was “dumping on NATO” doesn’t hold up well either. Trump did not reject NATO as imperialist, he wanted NATO to pay more and the US to pay less, especially for actions that didn’t directly the US. This is yet another Trump policy continued, more “successfully” by Biden. But, praising Trump while damning Biden when he continues Trump policies once again is the true TDS.
melaleuca@113 Your mutant telepathic powers are not even evidence, much less proof, not least because even if you could read collective minds, who knows if you would tell the truth? I guarantee you that the WikiLeaks release of a video of an atrocity in Afghanistan played a huge role in the determination to punish Assange, for the same kind of reasons that inspired the fury against Chelsea Manning and Edward Snowden and Reality Winner. The massive release of US embassy traffic too. By the way I’m not convinced that “Assange” hacked Clinton’s email for the same sort of reasons I’m not sure when the government claims (North) Koreans hacked Paramount or whoever. In any event, Assange was a target when Trump was president. Your thesis Assange is a target for the imaginary TDS victims to somehow get back at Trump (which makes no sense, as that doesn’t even hurt Trump) is however the real TDS.
Lavrov’s Dog@115 Good comment, though mere facts don’t mean anything to people in the grip of Trump Derangement Syndrome, the one where they believe in Trumpery.
Barrel Brown@116 This is true of the people of the south, but the ROK is not a free country. It’s not at clear what they will of the people has to do with it.
James M@118 You’re correct. Again, though facts don’t matter to those caught up in the real Trump Derangement Syndrome.
foxguy@124 Basically agree. I would only argue that “the swamp” is not just DC, but the biggest swamp is Wall Street. At that, too, the DC swamp most certainly includes the Pentagon. Brother Gen. Flynn’s activities in the officer corps are definitely Trumpian. Too lazy to hunt links on his role in the strategic stand down of the military 1/6, a part of the coup that has been carefully excised. (Including the select committee which also covered up for Republican Party henchmen in the legislature, not so incidentally.) So in my judgment, Bannon the movie producer and Flynn are swamp creatures too. I’ve never been convinced that Bannon trying to take credit for electing Trump did him any favors with Trump. Pronouncing yourself the kingmaker when it was a fluke…
Honzo@169 Free Korea is not Putin’s Rottweiler in my judgment. And part of the rapprochement with Russia is about balancing the PRC which has a powerful element in its government that wants an orderly surrender in the north, at least so far as I can tell. That’s why PRC has consistently supported so much of the US’ economic siege of the people of the north yet refused to go all in a blockade that might lead to a disorderly collapse.
On Ukraine, 1)In the end an indispensable part of attrition is taking territory, which attrits the logistical base of the military. Occupying the lines of communications and/or operations deprives the target military of initiative, and expands the potential for rapid maneuvers. See the Overland Campaign in the US Civil War, which hinged on effectively taking the Shenandoah valley. 2)Nobody can carry out an all-out blitzkrieg at short notice. The only easy time for Putin to intervene easily and quickly and relatively cheaply in Ukraine was 2014, when the Ukrainian army fell apart. 3)After eight years of preparation, including massive financial support (IMF loans to a nation waging a war) there was never any reasonable prospect given the logistic necessities in such a large open are that anything but a full mobilization would sweep over all. None. Whatever the motives for the feint on Kyiv, it led to a massive political defeat instead of prompting negotiations. 4)Nuclear escalation is insane.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jun 22 2024 14:32 utc | 202
Forgot *Presidents who are mentally impaired are not new. There was Wilson, a stroke, and Reagan, Alzheimer’s. The record is clear, when the impairment is severe the wife becomes a player, Edith Wilson and Nancy Reagan show this. Also impaired was senior Bush (thyroid out of whack does that) but that was more fixable, hence Barbara didn’t have to step up (and coincidentally had her own thyroid issues as I recall?) When it becomes obvious Dr. Jill is screening the staff etc. that’s when we know Biden’s decline is shading into some true dementia. As of this moment, Biden’s impairments are relatively minor. He never was the sharpest knife in the drawer. Again, the evidence I know of suggests Biden has always been a team player and has a team. Of course Biden is both incompetent in the end, because no one can fix a crazy system and evil. But one of the most evil things about him are straight forward continuations/advancements of Trumpery. Denying that is the true TDS I think.
Being a team player is unlike Trump who centers everything on himself and micromanages when he can be bothered to manage at all. Thus in anything but an autocratic position like CEO and unfits him for a political job, as opposed to getting elected. By the way, criticizing Trump’s incompetence is not persecution, another delusion in the real TDS. Jimmy Carter faced enormous criticism for his administrative incompetence. If anything, Trump gets so much less it’s another sign he has huge support by the MSM, even to some degree the so-called leftwing MSM. (No such thing!) Similarly, Trump’s ravings simply are not publicized the way Biden’s “age” is, also because the MSM is universally against Biden but factions of it support Trump.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jun 22 2024 14:45 utc | 203
The main headline at Reuters this morning makes the cynic in me wonder, “what crisis is about to boil over about which they don’t want the sheep to be aware.”
Reuters Main Headline:
Inflation, recession force Argentines to eat less beef
Is someone at Reuters joking around?
Posted by: librul | Jun 22 2024 14:55 utc | 204
Well, those ragtagged press ganged men seem to do a pretty good job of rolling the hardened Russian veterans out of Vovchansk, one block at a time. They also do seem to pretty much enjoy their turkey shoots against Russian armor.
Posted by: Micron | Jun 22 2024 13:49 utc | 191
Those “hardned Russian vets” that originally took Vovchansk were in fact a light infantry force of 15 thousand supported with artillery. They were basically unopposed until the Ukrainians stripped units off other fronts to stop them from walking into Ukrainian positions.
The Russian infantry was immediately followed by engineers who dug defence lines directly behind the front. Now the front is on active defence with a total of 50,000 troops.
See what’s actually going on here? Ukrainians are being pulled off the land Russia wants to liberate and are about to go on the offensive in a killing field just like last year. Russians don’t have to die storming defences if the Ukrainians are willing to die fighting for territory Russia doesn’t give a shit about.
The last big war featured blitzkrieg as the winning strategy … this war features the Anaconda strategy where you just keep squeezing until the breathing stops.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 22 2024 15:15 utc | 205
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 22 2024 13:18 utc | 178
No, but the Tu-22M is part of the strategic aviation and I have huge doubts that Russia would use these so close to the front line.
The Su-34 should be able to carry the 3000 with some adaptations. It certainly did not have provision for it two years ago, so it could only be a new development.
Adapting to new situations seems to be one of the stronger points of Russia’s armed forces, just as they adapted the MiG-31 to launch Kinzhals.
—
Posted by: Zippy the Pinhead | Jun 22 2024 13:34 utc | 181
Yes, I you are right.
However, with two 1500s, you can hit two targets in one sortie, with obviously less destructive power. But not every target really requires a big kaboom.
Posted by: Verdant | Jun 22 2024 15:23 utc | 206
The point of the 3000kg FABs is to collapse underground shelters.
When you see video of big bomb detonations you sometimes see smoke coming from the ground separate from the detonation site, making it clear that there are / were underground tunnels around the impact site.
For this reason in the two first shown videos of FAB3000 hits, the apparent near misses may not have been accidental.
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Jun 22 2024 15:34 utc | 208
Ukrainian losses for June 22nd, as reported by the Russian defence ministry:
– Sever Group (Kharkov): 220 troops, 10 motor vehicles, 3 artillery pieces
– Zapad Group (Luhansk area): 370 troops, 2 motor vehicles, 1 artillery piece
– Yug Group (Donetsk north): 590 troops, 2 motor vehicles, 3 artillery pieces
– Tsetr Group (Donetsk south): 425 troops, 4 artillery pieces
– Vostok Group (southern front): 140 troops, 1 AFV, 4 motor vehicles, 3 artillery pieces
– Dnepr Group: 90 troops, 1 tank, 4 motor vehicles, 3 artillery pieces
In total: 1,835 troops (about 2,000-2,500 with undercounting: 60,000 to 75,000 a month), 1 tank, 1 AFV/IFV/APC, 22 motor vehicles, 17 artillery pieces.
Losses staying above 2,000 in a day, with the Kharkov front doing its job of grinding down Ukraine’s best troops. The losses have significantly escalated in the past 2-3 weeks. Artillery losses significantly lower at 17 (have been more in the 25-35 range), we will have to see if this is the start of a trend (less targets?). 1 AFV/IFV/APC vs. 22 motor vehicles, the worst ratio so far; reflecting the transformation of the Ukrainian army into infantry plus “technicals” (pickup trucks with mounted weapons).
In WW1 the lines of the front did not move very much after the first few months of fluid warfare, and stayed that way until the last ditch German failed offensive after which the German army started to collapse. Germany was destroyed by the tight Allied blockade, the grinding down of the army after years of brutal warfare and the addition of fresh new US troops late in the war. The same process is happening to the Ukrainian army with now dwindling Western aid, the electricity system being utterly destroyed, any remaining experienced soldiers ground down by years of unremitting brutal warfare with no leave, the population increasingly seeing the war as a lost cause and one to hide from service in, and a Russian army grown with new recruits and kept in good shape by regular rotation and home leave. The lines of the front don’t need to move much for an army to be defeated, then the rest of the nation becomes easy to take.
Those “hardned Russian vets” that originally took Vovchansk were in fact a light infantry force of 15 thousand supported with artillery. They were basically unopposed until the Ukrainians stripped units off other fronts to stop them from walking into Ukrainian positions.
The Russian infantry was immediately followed by engineers who dug defence lines directly behind the front. Now the front is on active defence with a total of 50,000 troops.
See what’s actually going on here? Ukrainians are being pulled off the land Russia wants to liberate and are about to go on the offensive in a killing field just like last year. Russians don’t have to die storming defences if the Ukrainians are willing to die fighting for territory Russia doesn’t give a shit about.
The last big war featured blitzkrieg as the winning strategy … this war features the Anaconda strategy where you just keep squeezing until the breathing stops.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 22 2024 15:15 utc | 205
Whatever you say. This special needs operation (courtesy of Rurik Skywalker) has led to a flurry of new pseudo-military terms meant to masquerade or soothe any worries about the unpreparedness of the Russian army.
For instance, instead of saying “stalemate” we talk about “active defence”.
A failed offensive becomes a “reconnaissance in force”.
I especially love the term “semi-encirclement”. It stands gloriously next to “half-pregnant” in the pantheon of the stupidest neologisms you can imagine. How on earth can you be semi-encircled ? This is a lame cope meaning in fact “failed cauldron”.
Now about your theory : it’s a nice theory. However it’s completely wrong. This creates an impression among the readers that Russian soldiers sit comfortably behind impenetrable fortresses while waves after waves of hapless Ukrainian soldiers get mowed down by FAB and automated gunships. In reality, readers who actually make the effort of looking at a map and watching TG videos will see that it’s complete bullshit. Russians are fighting in the open or practice urban warfare, where obviously there are no defence lines (care to have a look at Vovchansk videos ?”. They do suffer casualties and try to attack, often times getting picked apart in the process.
Did it actually help other parts of the front by stripping troops ? (remember : previous theory on this forum was that the Kharkov offensive would be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and that we would start seeing massive holes opening up on the fronts. Paired with confident assumptions by Ritter and McGregor that Russia would in Kharkov by June). The effect is not really visible. There are actually tiny progresses here and there, and maybe in 3 months Russia will have conquered the micro-district in Chasov Yar. Maybe. But we haven’t seen any significant move.
This proves beyond all doubt that
– Ukrainians do have more than enough reserves to fight back additional Russian offensives
– Without having to deprive other parts of the front significantly enough that it creates a tactical imbalance
– Ukraine has not collapsed and will probably not collapse anytime soon.
I’m sorry but that’s just what my lying two eyes tell me. Now, maybe Ukrainians and NATO are absolutely strained and that it will snap any minute now. Maybe. That’s just a theory though, with enough failed predictions to fill out an entire book.
Posted by: Micron | Jun 22 2024 15:50 utc | 210
Losses staying above 2,000 in a day, with the Kharkov front doing its job of grinding down Ukraine’s best troops. The losses have significantly escalated in the past 2-3 weeks. Artillery losses significantly lower at 17 (have been more in the 25-35 range), we will have to see if this is the start of a trend (less targets?). 1 AFV/IFV/APC vs. 22 motor vehicles, the worst ratio so far; reflecting the transformation of the Ukrainian army into infantry plus “technicals” (pickup trucks with mounted weapons).
Are there actually people who still believe the Russian MoD fairy tales ? Now THAT’s impressive.
What’s more impressive is that this light force of infantry + technicals is able to hold back the massive Russian juggernaut with its SU-34, SU-35, T-80 ,T-90 by the hundreds. Oh yes I forgot : Russia prefers to practice active defence. It’s so much more convenient that way, with just the minor side effect of reducing to rubble all the villages and cities of a Donbass which is theoretically russian, while if the RU army just pushed 200 km west fighting would happen on Galician soil, which is not Russian.
That’s about as believable as claiming that in 1914-1918 the French preferred to fight the Germans on their soil (and transforming the most fertile part of France in a barren wasteland) rather that in Frankfurt or Köln.
In WW1 the lines of the front did not move very much after the first few months of fluid warfare, and stayed that way until the last ditch German failed offensive after which the German army started to collapse. Germany was destroyed by the tight Allied blockade, the grinding down of the army after years of brutal warfare and the addition of fresh new US troops late in the war. The same process is happening to the Ukrainian army with now dwindling Western aid, the electricity system being utterly destroyed, any remaining experienced soldiers ground down by years of unremitting brutal warfare with no leave, the population increasingly seeing the war as a lost cause and one to hide from service in, and a Russian army grown with new recruits and kept in good shape by regular rotation and home leave. The lines of the front don’t need to move much for an army to be defeated, then the rest of the nation becomes easy to take.
Well keep hoping then. What you are omitting is that Germany was under tight blockade, while supplies flow freely into Ukraine from all over the world. In 1918 mass starvation was a very real prospect. See any Ukrainians starving recently ? Also, what about this vaunted shell hunger which was supposed to happen, like 6 months ago ?
Posted by: Micron | Jun 22 2024 15:56 utc | 211
Micron
<< Also, what about this vaunted shell hunger which was supposed to happen, like 6 months ago ? >>
The Russian military commenters say the same thing –
they don’t see any Ukrainian lack of shells at the front line,
this has indeed been exaggerated.
(Nonetheless Russian forces still advance.)
NAZO media has taken part in this deception.
Western NAZO media operate only to deceive.
Remember, China is the virus, the Sinovaccine was all pork.
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Jun 22 2024 16:12 utc | 212
while supplies flow freely into Ukraine from all over the world
Posted by: Micron | Jun 22 2024 15:56 utc | 211
—
They certainly have no shortage of psychotropic drugs. Dealers can get those in exchange for human organs. A profitable business in both directions.
Waiting lists for transplants have shortened, so that’s good.
https://statistics.eurotransplant.org/index.php?search_type=waiting+list&search_organ=&search_region=All+ET&search_period=by+year&search_characteristic=&search_text=
Posted by: too scents | Jun 22 2024 16:16 utc | 213
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 22 2024 14:17 utc | 199
Posted by: Verdant | Jun 22 2024 15:23 utc | 206
Thanks for the Su-24 info. On explosive type, here are videos of the two recent FAB-3000 drops, to me they look like regular HE-frag rather than thermobaric but I don’t have the expertise to be sure.
https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/36685
https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/36632
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Jun 22 2024 15:34 utc | 208
I interpreted the secondary trails as ejecta / wreckage but what you say is perfectly plausible, thanks for that.
Posted by: anon | Jun 22 2024 16:16 utc | 214
Posted by: anon | Jun 22 2024 16:16 utc | 214
Oops, that’s me!
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 22 2024 16:19 utc | 215
HB_Norica
<< Once that failed everything else has been improvised. Obviously the numbers point to NATO losing a war of attrition against a united Russia with China at their back but politicians are running the show and their areas of expertise lies in the ability to get re-elected. >>
Lets see how that works out for Rishi Sunak in the UK – surely – surely – the UK electorate will reward him for his stalwart support of Ukraine and all those hugs with Zhelensky.
It’s interesting to see how the countries fighting Russia and China etc. to defend democracy, will respond to the views of their own populations expressed through elections.
The USA for one is making its Ukraine support “Trump-proof” which means democracy proof which means dictatorial. It can’t be changed by election outcome. Out of the hand of the “we the people”.
Olaf Sholz of Germany also now legislates to stop elections for an “emergency” (after seeing how the UK Tories are faring).
As for Ukraine and Kiev – lets not even go there.
It’s like those napalmed villages in Vietnam – democracy is something the US and vassals just had to destroy in order to save it.
In regard to democracy and dicatorship, it used to be “four legs good, two legs bad”
Now it seems it’s “four legs bad, two legs good”.
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Jun 22 2024 16:22 utc | 216
It all seems to have gone quiet about Ukraine’s bond and loan rescheduling discussions with the IMF and other interested parties. Are we still looking at an August deadline for resuming payment servicing, or is default on the cards?
Credit default swaps were pricing in a 9% chance of default, last time I saw a report, which seems low.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 22 2024 16:22 utc | 217
Posted by: Micron | Jun 22 2024 15:50 utc | 210
Two months ago Ukraine controlled its territory north of Volchansk to the Russian border. Now they don’t and Volchansk itself is an urban grey zone.
So much “winning” by NATO …
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 22 2024 16:25 utc | 218
@Babel-17, 61
The AFU is constantly increasing its percentage of soldiers who had to be dragooned into service, and then received scant training before being thrown into front line units.
Make that no training at all in some cases. Going by some Telegram posts, the order is press-ganged, held in a gym for a couple of days, handed a uniform, then dumped in a trench at the front.
Posted by: cirsium | Jun 22 2024 16:26 utc | 219
Re: Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Jun 22 2024 16:12 utc | 212
The Russian military commenters say the same thing –
they don’t see any Ukrainian lack of shells at the front line,
this has indeed been exaggerated.
(Nonetheless Russian forces still advance.)
NAZO media has taken part in this deception.
Western NAZO media operate only to deceive.
Remember, China is the virus, the Sinovaccine was all pork.
This would be the much-vaunted Russian maskirovka in action you know Andrew.
Aren’t you impressed?
Posted by: Julian | Jun 22 2024 16:26 utc | 220
intelslava telegram
The Kiev regime is amassing more and more weapons to the border with Belarus.
In the area of responsibility of the Zhytomyr border detachment of the State Border Service of Ukraine, an increase in the number of Ukrainian armed formations is recorded, including special operations forces and special forces of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
– says the statement of the State Border Committee of the Republic of Belarus.
In addition, Ukrainian troops are concentrating in the areas bordering Belarus various units, including those with heavy weapons: MTLB, infantry fighting vehicles, including American Bradleys, HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, M777 howitzers, German-made Gepard anti-aircraft self-propelled guns and other means of destruction.
_———-
itseasierfor Ukr to attack Belarus and with EU suport locally available regime change v2. ..diversion disruption ..morale booster…..”some” achievenent to “prove” do not be a friends of Russia…surely would get support from the Baltics…???..
Posted by: Jo | Jun 22 2024 16:40 utc | 221
intelslava telegram
The Kiev regime is amassing more and more weapons to the border with Belarus.
In the area of responsibility of the Zhytomyr border detachment of the State Border Service of Ukraine, an increase in the number of Ukrainian armed formations is recorded, including special operations forces and special forces of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
– says the statement of the State Border Committee of the Republic of Belarus.
In addition, Ukrainian troops are concentrating in the areas bordering Belarus various units, including those with heavy weapons: MTLB, infantry fighting vehicles, including American Bradleys, HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, M777 howitzers, German-made Gepard anti-aircraft self-propelled guns and other means of destruction.
Can’t be. Going by the MoD press releases, the Ukrainian army has been reduced to a ragtag bunch of barefoot 60-years old riding old Hilux technicals with .50 cal juryrigged on top. Gotcha Intelslava !
Posted by: Micron | Jun 22 2024 16:52 utc | 222
Posted by: vargas | Jun 22 2024 15:34 utc | 207
They are already scared, thats why they need a war.
Posted by: Justpassinby | Jun 22 2024 16:55 utc | 223
Julian
Got it! You mean when the Pentagon (in the U.S.A. last time I checked) admitted to launching a multi million dollar social media misinformation campaign to stop Philippinos taking the Chinese made covid19 vaccine, iusing tagline “ChinaIsTheVirus” and lying about it containing pork to put off Muslims, – Sinovac was the only one available to them at the time, reducing vacccine uptake to 30% and causing directly tens of thousands of deaths by covid in that country – that campaign which the Pentagon openly admit to now – was in fact all Russian misinformation. The Russians made the Pentagon think they had done it while it was the Russians all along. Outstanding insight. Thanks Julian – I won’t be fooled again.
Sun still shining? better to out for a walk soon before the Russians make it rain again.
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Jun 22 2024 16:55 utc | 224
Re: Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Jun 22 2024 16:55 utc | 224
Got it! You mean when the Pentagon (in the U.S.A. last time I checked) admitted to launching a multi million dollar social media misinformation campaign to stop Philippinos taking the Chinese made covid19 vaccine, iusing tagline “ChinaIsTheVirus” and lying about it containing pork to put off Muslims, – Sinovac was the only one available to them at the time, reducing vacccine uptake to 30% and causing directly tens of thousands of deaths by covid in that country – that campaign which the Pentagon openly admit to now – was in fact all Russian misinformation. The Russians made the Pentagon think they had done it while it was the Russians all along. Outstanding insight. Thanks Julian – I won’t be fooled again.
Fair call, my post was poorly worded.
What I was getting at was what you are describing is what the Russians call maskirovka – just practised by others.
The Russian military commenters say the same thing – they don’t see any Ukrainian lack of shells at the front line, this has indeed been exaggerated. (Nonetheless Russian forces still advance.) NAZO media has taken part in this deception. Western NAZO media operate only to deceive.
Obviously the Russians would not be fooled by a little maskirovka as practised by the US/Pentagon etc. now would they>?
Posted by: Julian | Jun 22 2024 17:00 utc | 225
Posted by: Micron | Jun 22 2024 16:52 utc | 222
Where do they say that?
Posted by: Justpassinby | Jun 22 2024 17:00 utc | 226
Posted by: Verdant | Jun 22 2024 13:04 utc | 177
FAB-3000 would require much larger wings to carry the same distance as FAB-1500. If they tested it with a specialized Su-34, it needs to be in the center bottom pylon, and the platform may not be as stable as a 4 engine bomber which may contribute to inaccuracy. However, it was still pretty damn accurate and surely they will resolve any potential issues.
Posted by: unimperator | Jun 22 2024 17:00 utc | 227
HB_Norica @ 201
…but politicians are running the show and their areas of expertise lies in the ability to get re-elected.
Everyone hates every politician of every stripe in all Golden Billion countries, so, they don’t even have that fundamental talent, these pols have shit all nothing, no brains, no info, no skills. If it wasn’t so dangerous it would be hilarious.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 22 2024 17:05 utc | 228
A good statement of fact, just newly “MSM-plublished” by whome?
“South Korea is going to reconsider its attitude towards the supply of “Lethal weapons to Kiev”
– from an apreciated MoA commenter here some mins. ago:
Previously Mr. dictator of Russians made a very clear statements
Previously that day, the “South-Korean Officials” claimed that did they do not supply anything to helpng Ukraine on a military basis.”
Sure – You may believe? I do not.
That’s correct: But what have “previously” statements practized by S-Korean to do with US/CIA goals to reach and to be “performed anyway”
Look history – You MoAs all know what having discussed ALL THOSE SUBJECTS! over the past years.
Do not WAIT ! Go to re-act re-activate by Yours mind, today.
(Beside of any MIL-like discussions, whether a “new” FAB-3000/9000 guiding bombs sent by RF had any “success on grounds”.
Omly think – day by day – “only” hoping some having killed in the US-Washington guys “Deep-Criminal-Club” inside by an out-sider (a crazy overwhelmed Sniper waiting).
Nuland, Kirby, Blinken, vd.Liars please listen just now today – tomorrow possibly being alive only in a bunker in Guantanamo/Mexico, from where have attacked RF-Naval Forces? :
Hide as long you may can .. Some day You’ll be either on Inter-Court or damaged bee – Sure!
Thanks to this forum’s founder.
Tom.
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Jun 22 2024 18:23 utc | 229
t’s like those napalmed villages in Vietnam – democracy is something the US and vassals just had to destroy in order to save it.
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Jun 22 2024 16:22 utc | 216
I was just thinking of that “we had to destroy the village in order to save it” line yesterday. I was thinking along the lines of Taiwan whose biggest trading partner as well as business partner is China and the American plans to carpet bomb Taiwan’s chip factories to keep them out of China hands in case of invasion.
Ity easily pertains to Ukraine as well.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 22 2024 18:29 utc | 230
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Jun 22 2024 18:23 utc | 229
————————
Has anyone an Enigma deciphering machine for this?
Posted by: scc | Jun 22 2024 18:42 utc | 231
I actually agree with the trolls or trollish types that the UKR forces are not made up of pressganged troops and the vids you see on TG are a combination of anecdotal and if not RF MoD psyops then pro RF social media freelance psyops, AFU was and still is putting up a hell of a fight with no air support, if you took that away from the RF they would be stagnant and still behind the Surovikin line. However, reports like this, and there have been several in the last couple of months would indicate a notable decline in the quality of the AFU. My guess is the AFU is sending green troops into the defensive lines and what’s left of seasoned troops and NATO pros into the active defense. When they meet resistance the seasoned troops get to pull back to fight another day, when the poor suckers in the trenches meet an assault they die.
Toretsk direction: the enemy is not yet able to stabilize the situation at the site of the breakthrough… Yesterday our units (and I specifically found out that the attack was simply filigree, without significant losses) managed to break through the front of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of the settlement. Noises.
Moreover, not only the first line of defense was broken through, but also the main one, based on the outskirts of the village. Northern. And by the end of yesterday, our units managed to gain a foothold in the enemy’s strongholds, from which in the morning (while the Armed Forces of Ukraine were confused here and were unable to build a new stable defense) they continued the offensive both deep into Severny and on the outskirts of the village. Friendship.
Moreover, in Kyiv publics they still cannot understand how it happened that the defense line, which had been created for many years (and this is the only place where the enemy still stood in the positions of 2014, with reinforced concrete firing points and an extensive line of strongholds and trenches), literally collapsed in one hour. In the meantime, they are sorting it out, as of 12.00 ours are moving forward. – Yuri Podolyaka
“>https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/9289
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 22 2024 18:49 utc | 232
Re: why the slo-motion war ?
Because De-Dollarization takes time. My original estimate made in Spring 2022 was:
2025 first real but minor effects of de-dollarizattin are felt in the Federal Budget
2027 significant effects on Federal Budget
These estimates remain valid. Any child can do the maths. Putin can too
Posted by: Exile | Jun 22 2024 18:52 utc | 233
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 22 2024 18:29 utc | 230
“.. and the American plans to carpet bomb Taiwan’s chip factories to keep them out of China hands in case of invasion. ..
That is the very true and possibly being the only remaing true one’s argument that could be followed-up ..
What girls (and only of a some men) of the Nuland+Kirby+Blinken+Stolzenberg+Baerbocks US-engaged NGOs would make a “New PAPER” how they would have LOST against some alternative public Portals like .. (you know a lot dfaily publishing on your MSM-Nonsense day-by-day).
I always look on US-MSM, nowadays more&more there speaking some “black” girls. Is that a recovery of BLM ? No- that BLM propaganda is exhausted exactly that day where Russia claims to keep fighting Russian speaking/living people in Donbass/Luhansk/Saparashnje/Kherson.
UKR combat detained/surrendered soldiers are our “Slowakia brothers”, so getting food & shelter.
Welcome French “Combat Brothers” – no 3 meals/day, no shelter – but go home or die ..
Thats’it – no more no less.
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Jun 22 2024 18:53 utc | 234
Simplicius’s summary of blue teamer Ben Rhodes’s suggestion that the US back off gives me hope. My guess is that Rhodes speaks for Obama. Remember: Obama didn’t have a very high opinion of Biden. Back in 2005 Biden along with Kerry, Dodd and Lieberman, were encouraged to vet/evaluate Obama as soon as he slipped into the Senate and began impressing people with his smile, medium brown skin and nice voice. He was a politician’s Ken doll and Biden liked him. Obama had to choose Biden for vp.
All these people are fakes: Hillary, Biden, Kamala… All are toxic and have next to zero public support except Obama so far. Obama does not like Joe and is probably worried that multiple disasters are coming.
Watch Obama. The puppet masters are working through him and his team.
Posted by: migueljose | Jun 22 2024 11:59 utc | 166
I think Rhodes is essentially a pragmatist. He is still an American exceptionalist, but he’s willing to come to grips with the reality that the cost of maintaining US hegemony in every corner of the world has become greater than the cost of losing it. Most of the Washington swamp critters are such brain dead ideologues that they can’t accept reality. It remains to be seen whether this gets enough traction to avert a catastrophe.
Posted by: Mike R | Jun 22 2024 18:59 utc | 235
“. . . Which country is defending against a racism based threat to its existence? And which country is militarily serving the interests of an outside disconnected elite? Look at how military recruitment is working in Russia and Ukraine, and decide for yourself.”
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Jun 22 2024 8:32 utc | 139
Thank you, Andrew Sarchus. It should be obvious, and there’s no doubt it is. Shame on those here on this thread who try to subvert the truth.
Posted by: juliania | Jun 22 2024 19:01 utc | 236
Posted by: Roger | Jun 22 2024 15:40 utc | 209
– Sever Group (Kharkov): 220 troops, 10 motor vehicles, 3 artillery pieces
sever means north
– Zapad Group (Luhansk area): 370 troops, 2 motor vehicles, 1 artillery piece
zapad means west
– Yug Group (Donetsk north): 590 troops, 2 motor vehicles, 3 artillery pieces
yug means south
– Tsetr Group (Donetsk south): 425 troops, 4 artillery pieces
tsentr means, well, center
– Vostok Group (southern front): 140 troops, 1 AFV, 4 motor vehicles, 3 artillery pieces
vostok means east
Posted by: hopehely | Jun 22 2024 19:13 utc | 237
Because De-Dollarization takes time.
Posted by: Exile | Jun 22 2024 18:52 utc | 233
—
The effect of de-dollarization will be almost instantaneous. It won’t be caused by actual trading flows, but by expected future flows.
A collapse of confidence is different to a discount on the rate of return. It is the recognition that there will be no return. That the price has gone to practically zero.
Its hard to say when market forces will re-price the dollar, but when they do the event will happen with breathtaking speed and violence.
Unlike all market failures* post 1929 the next one cannot be papered over with dollars.
* when a market is suspended because there are no buyers.
Posted by: too scents | Jun 22 2024 19:21 utc | 238
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Jun 22 2024 8:32 utc | 139
And which country is militarily serving the interests of an outside disconnected elite? Look at how military recruitment is working in Russia and Ukraine, and decide for yourself.”
One note to the “Militarily Recruitment” in Russia vs. the Same in Ukrania doing just now :
In UKR:
– all men sampled on a street in UKR, only to buy a small very tasty food they cannot get at home due to canceled Energy upport, they do it, going to some Electricity-Battery-equipped guys in it’s neighborhood, so they can eat what they are like to eat “as before”.
AS before means: Fighting – Against USA – Not against Ukrania – the old woman (78y) said.
Now:
Putin, the Dictataor of Russia makes no more any “jokes” to the West, as they (the US-WEST, only 60 states on UNO) may have him (Putin) mis-interprated .. Weapons whereon targets .. From Cuba to KeyWest/Miama or whereever targetetd – Russian have those capabilities near USA ??
I dont think so – but must think about those Russian ANTI-Measures about Nuclear strikes with a KiloTon = 70 against only a KiloTon = 30 on Hiroshima/Nagaski twice in JAPAN, newly
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Jun 22 2024 19:24 utc | 239
Posted by: Roger | Jun 22 2024 15:40 utc | 209 “osses staying above 2,000 in a day,”
Losses posted by the Russian MOD which are as believable as the losses posted by the Ukrainians.
Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 22 2024 19:40 utc | 240
Exile @ 233
Because De-Dollarization takes time.
It’s not what they need to tear down, it’s what they need to build up, replicate 300ys of anglo-saxon pipes and plumbing.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 22 2024 19:44 utc | 241
Posted by: Jo | Jun 22 2024 16:40 utc | 221 “intelslava telegram: The Kiev regime is amassing more and more weapons to the border with Belarus.”
If you track the locations of newly trained Ukrainian units going back about 2 years, they come out of the various training centers, Western Ukraine, Western Europe and go to the Belarus boarder before moving into a more active combat areas. Then, often the first ‘combat’ area is behind the Dnipro River by Kherson. From there they go into real combat. Sometimes a battalion at a time getting pulled from the same brigade.
All this may mean is that Ukraine has a bunch of newly trained troops.
Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 22 2024 19:49 utc | 242
Whenever some of those so-called “Red lines” of Russia People would have been exceeded/expired, just today, they (the Russian Folk, within it’s several 180 ethnities and it’s spellings) would fight for Russia – that is fact, the Nuland-EVIL guys do not want, here in Georgia + Kasachstan + Usbekistan +Thaktigistan + Mongolia + China (Tibet Ali/Ala) + Paksistan + India + Cambodia + Vietnam + Thailand (contract by sign) ..
So only all the “others” on G21/7 recently remaining like the Philipinnes + Japan and some adjacent colonial insula “States” have to asked on “it’s” desicions ..
That is what it is today – no more no less.
Thanks for this Forum.
Tom.
_______________________________
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Jun 22 2024 19:49 utc | 243
Julian
(Maskirovka)
“Fair call, my post was poorly worded.”
I guess I picked up the wrong end of the stick also – all good though.
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Jun 22 2024 19:51 utc | 244
they come out of the various training centers in Western Ukraine, Western Europe advisers to go to the Belarus boarder along for trainig before moving into a more active deadly combat areas, to defend Your own countrythe next 7 days .. Help Me …
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Jun 22 2024 20:01 utc | 245
@Posted by: hopehely | Jun 22 2024 19:13 utc | 237
Well thankyou for that piece of literal translation (and yes I can use google translate), which I was not providing as it simply confuses things given that it is from the point of view of the Russians military and how they organize their military groupings. I want to provide the reader with the actual locations where the fighting is taking place as that is much more meaningful.
The last front which you missed is called the Dnepr front, after the Dniepr River and therefore provides the reader with the location of the action. If the Russians open up a new offensive in what they call the Northern front, then I will add that to Kharkov (e.g. Sumy). Between the Dnepr and Tsetr (Donetsk South) fronts is what an outside observer would best identify as a southern front. The locations of battle in each front can easily be checked by reading the Russian updates on towns being attacked/taken etc. and Russian military maps.
Giving specious reasoning a bad name.
https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/36711
Switzerland’s refusal to invite Russia to the forum in Bürgenstock was a mistake, says ex-Swiss Foreign Minister Micheline Calmy-Rey
Calmy-Rey also expresses concerns that Switzerland’s neutrality no longer guarantees security, and perhaps the country should consider joining the EU and NATO.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 22 2024 20:08 utc | 247
@Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 22 2024 19:40 utc | 240
One of the great tools of propaganda is the use of false equivalence. Just as Zionists use a false equivalence between Hamas (the armed wing of an occupied peoples) and the IDF (the military of an occupying power).
There are good sources for validating Russian war losses, which are massively lower than those claimed by the Ukrainians. The same with all the supposed Russian missiles that are shot down that somehow also meet their targets, the Ukrainian missile that landed in Poland that the Ukies claimed was Russian etc. the list of Ukie lies is endless. There are also good sources for validating Ukie losses, for example from new military grave sites and the odd leak (e.g. the number of 50,000 war disabled Ukrainians) that tend to validate the Russian figures.
Seems that we have quite a few propaganda trolls on the site currently, either obviously Ukie oriented or trying to play the false concern BS narratives.
Hi – observers here,
Sie sollten mal auf die TOP-EUROPIAN Assets schauen.
Das kann ich Ihnen hier – wegal wers ist – sagen:
EURO wird “wirklich” nochmal richtig Down in den ‘Keller gehen, weil EZB-Chefin (alle kennen ihren Namen und ihren Good-Will zu der nun nochmals neu-zuerschaffenden Bank (EU) – Ja – Ich Dein Bruder AUCH !
Absahnen kommt dann – Ich allein hab dann noch bescheidene 1,34 Mio CHF
Danke fuer’s Zuhoeren – Bin halt immer noch nen bisschen “schlauer” als Ihr hier auf der Börse seid. .. Oder ‘
Abwarten – mindestens 3 Jahre – dann bin ich raus from Biden-Hunter Geschaeft,
wer will denn jetzt gerade noch – gegen mich kämpfen .. und gegen mein Papa + gegen meine Mama ..?
Excuse here: All those men/girls are not aware what they’ve to do within next days or even reply to those accusations, but there is “1 STAR” loving You . ..
So let’s meet exactly on that date … wonderful .. Ukrania may live ..
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Jun 22 2024 20:18 utc | 249
I see a lot of pent-up demand for expressing comments.
I’ll stick with thr militarization of AI and it’s generalizability commercially
The Y2K hype sold hardware, software and consulting
First to come: will your hardware be AI ready, to be followed by upgrading your software to be AI ready. Consultants are waiting for your call, do not get left behind.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jun 22 2024 20:35 utc | 250
No comment here on @249 yet, respectively on @248
I’m accessed wrongly by my good friend, means by forum here something like a “Crazy Girl” fighting for Social Democracy wherever on wold.
Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar(?), N-Korea, S-Korea, Cambodia – al those have entered – want to enter the BRICS.
Why is that?
Answer:
Only because US/UK-NATO (Mossad/CAI) will furtherly kill any Leaders of the new BRICS States !
So – let them (CIA) do so far ..
They (CIA) won’t kill further ANY-President in the World, that does not smell like CIA/MI6.
Laughing .. Ha Ha .. Hezbollahs will fight You-US/UK via IDF from now on. Believe that in realistic. Knee down pls. – at the End of Zionism in 2030.
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | Jun 22 2024 20:39 utc | 251
Posted by: Micron | Jun 22 2024 15:50 utc | 210
For instance, instead of saying “stalemate” we talk about “active defence”.
I can help you with that.
A stalemate is a chess term for when no more moves meaningful oves can be made by either side.
Active defence is a strategy where you are on defence but you probe the enemy and take ground if the opportunity presents itself.
Do you believe there are no more meaningful moves for either side in this conflict?
A failed offensive becomes a “reconnaissance in force”.
True enough … however consider that just one sentence ago you couldn’t tell the difference between a stalemate and active defence.
I especially love the term “semi-encirclement”. It stands gloriously next to “half-pregnant” in the pantheon of the stupidest neologisms you can imagine. How on earth can you be semi-encircled ? This is a lame cope meaning in fact “failed cauldron”.
That one can be hard to understand but I can help you out.
If the enemy is shooting at you you’re on the line of contact.
if the enemy is shooting at you from the front and side you’re being “flanked”
If the enemy is shooting at you from the front and both sides you’re “semi-encircled_
If the enemy is shooting at you from the front, both sides and artillery is targetting your supply lines you’re in “operational encirclement”.
If the enemy is shooting at you from all sides you’re “encircled”
Any time you’re in a position where you can’t leave your position due to the enemies positions or being exposed to artillery fire you’re in a “fire bag” or “cauldron”
Now about your theory : it’s a nice theory. However it’s completely wrong. This creates an impression among the readers that Russian soldiers sit comfortably behind impenetrable fortresses while waves after waves of hapless Ukrainian soldiers get mowed down by FAB and automated gunships. In reality, readers who actually make the effort of looking at a map and watching TG videos will see that it’s complete bullshit. Russians are fighting in the open or practice urban warfare, where obviously there are no defence lines (care to have a look at Vovchansk videos ?”. They do suffer casualties and try to attack, often times getting picked apart in the process.
So your evidence that my theory is “a nice theory. However it’s completely wrong” is maps and videos on TG?
Before committing your reputation to the veracity of such videos consider:
Who made the videos and why did they post them?
When did they make the videos?
Are you sure they are from that particular battle and aren’t deep fakes or AI generated. Remember the Ghost of kiev and the Arma 3 videos the Ukrainians were posting as real? Did you consider that in those hundred billion of so in funding given to Ukraine this year there isn’t a little something video production software?
Both sides use propaganda. Evidence on who is winning this war is in the economic numbers and societal/ political support for the war on either side. we get reports from mercs returning from the front line of artillery coming down like rain and never seeing an actual Russian. That tells me the Russians have a vast superiority in firepower and the economic data says Russia is able to outshoot Ukraine by factors ranging from 5:1 to 10:1. They don’t have to get close to kill Ukrainians and there is no need to rush.
On the Societal/political side Putin was reelected with 80% of the vote on a mandate to continue the war. he’s treated like a celebrity in every country he visits in contrast to the message coming from the State Department that Putin is isolated. You can’t make this shit up.
Did it actually help other parts of the front by stripping troops ? (remember : previous theory on this forum was that the Kharkov offensive would be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and that we would start seeing massive holes opening up on the fronts. Paired with confident assumptions by Ritter and McGregor that Russia would in Kharkov by June).
“Collapse comes slowly at first then all at once” There’s reported evidence that Ukrainians are abandoning their positions across the front … time will tell. As far as the fortune tellers that claim to have the Russian playbook and a direct line to the Kremlin … I listen to their opinions but don’t take it as fact.
This proves beyond all doubt that
– Ukrainians do have more than enough reserves to fight back additional Russian offensives
– Without having to deprive other parts of the front significantly enough that it creates a tactical imbalance
– Ukraine has not collapsed and will probably not collapse anytime soon.
Lets just ask the unicorns to take a break and leave fantasy land for a minute.
The Ukraine military was defeated 3 months into the war.
Since then it’s been the EU and USA arming, training, funding and planning the war. For example the “Ukrainian naval victories” in the Black Sea are British naval drones, USA and British missiles targeted by NATO ISR. Ukrainians have nothing to do with it. Most of the Ukrainian navy defected to Russia in 2014, what was left was sunk in the opening days of the war.
For the most part the Ukrainian contribution to the war today is to round up victims, dress them up as soldiers and ship them to the front. NATO officers are running the show, NATO soldiers are manning supporting weapons systems and targeting is done by NATO ISR. Yes there are a few ideological elite units forced to fight on the front these days. Until recently they were used as “firefighters” and blocking detachments maintaining order on the front.
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 22 2024 20:43 utc | 252
Heh, reading through this thread the thought has just occurred to me that all these NAFO fanbois might actually be Ukrainian bondholders trying to “talk their book”…
What’s Ukrainian for ‘illiquidity’?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 22 2024 20:54 utc | 253
Posted by: Roger | Jun 22 2024 20:11 utc | 248
Well, quoting Shoigu on April 24, 2024 (in Sputnik) “Ukraine has lost almost half a million soldiers since the beginning of the special military operation in 2022.”
Divide that out (I used 26 months) and the number per day is way under the daily report from the Russian MOD. Which often says “up to” in front of the number they give.
I see the daily reports here: https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/briefings/briefings.htm
For example on 20.06.2024 (13:45) I see this:
“The AFU losses amounted to up to 290 Ukrainian troops, three motor vehicles, one U.S.-made M142 HIMARS MLRS launcher, one German-made 155-mm Panzerhaubitze-2000 howitzer, two 152-mm D-20 howitzers, one 122-mm D-30 howitzer, and one U.S.-made AN/TPQ-50 electronic warfare station.”
Notice the “up to” 290 Ukrainian troops. To be sarcastic, could have been just 1.
When you attempt to square the circle between all the different sources of information the daily Russian MOD report doesn’t add up.
That is the reason I don’t believe the daily Russian MOD numbers, not just because I don’t believe the Ukrainians either.
Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 22 2024 21:02 utc | 254
Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 22 2024 21:02 utc | 254
Could it be that Mr Shoigu was referring to the numbers of deceased as “losses”, whilst the daily Russian Ministry reports refer to wounded and killed as “losses”? After all, machine translations are not good at capturing nuance or context.
Just throwing it out there for your consideration…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 22 2024 21:11 utc | 255
Here we go again, remember before the Big Counter Offensive that stupid ad of an actor as an AFU guy with the beard saying hush with his finger to his lips? “Ssshh… only Zelensky, the Pentagon, and now you know about the Big Counter Offensive that’s coming. Don’t tell a soul!” And, WTF of all fucking fucks, here they go again. Same brain dead western hype-meisters running the same brain dead show, eternal doom loop, like a Twilight Zone episode. Before a show gets cancelled it jumps the shark.
In Ukraine they announced a general battle in the special operation zone. A key battle will begin in the special military operation zone this summer. This was stated by retired Colonel of the Security Service of Ukraine Oleg Starikov.
“There will be a military event in August-September. I call this a general battle that will lead to escalation or de-escalation and, perhaps, will become the basis for the start of negotiations,” he said.
The West, Starikov added, is preparing an air group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces for the upcoming battle. It will try to withstand the destructive attacks of Russian guided aerial bombs on Ukrainian fortified areas.
“>https://t.me/llordofwar/360186
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 22 2024 21:26 utc | 256
Casualty numbers are a secret in war, that’s all you need to know, rest is bags of peanuts handed out to the peanut gallery.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 22 2024 21:31 utc | 257
@Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 22 2024 21:11 utc | 255
Exactly, but that would be using some nuance and understanding. Given the baleful state of the Ukrainian military medical services the outcomes for wounded will be much worse than in a better medically supported army – i.e. much higher levels of irrevocable casualties.
I consider Simplicius to be a Russaan propagandist.
Like Saker before, or Martynov.
Dima is the one that really knows the truth.
Posted by: vargas | Jun 22 2024 21:44 utc | 259
Posted by: vargas | Jun 22 2024 21:44 utc | 259
Well we will have to agree to differ, as I regard Simplicius and Dima as aggregators of disparate sources with a seasoning of armchair strategy and projection, something which any of us could do if we put our minds to it. Neither of them add any real value.
Whereas the two Andrei’s (Raevsky and Martyanov) have some “lived experience” informing their analysis.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 22 2024 22:04 utc | 260
Posted by: Roger | Jun 22 2024 21:42 utc | 258
Yes, I’ve come across some unconfirmed but nevertheless horrifying reports that some injured Ukrainian troops were moved to some kind of organ-harvesting establishment, because functioning kidneys, livers and hearts had a monetary value above the worth of the soldier to the front line. Sickening stuff if true, I wasn’t minded to dig too deeply.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 22 2024 22:15 utc | 261
vargas @ 259
I consider Simplicius to be a Russaan propagandist. Like Saker before, or Martynov. Dima is the one that really knows the truth.
Can you be a propagandist if you are on the side of right? Maybe the term evangelist?
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 22 2024 22:16 utc | 262
Maybe you are rigt.
A question: How is it possible that no western journalist has asked any of US/NATO generals what would happen if Russia retaliate with nuclear weapons on the western population centers?
Why even their family members apparently do not ask that questions.
What kind of dream is that?
Posted by: vargas | Jun 22 2024 22:20 utc | 263
Regarding the imbalance in artillery, and shells, I think it safe to say the AFU hasn’t been allowing its forces to get concussed into oblivion over the last score or so of months just to deceive their opponents into underestimating them.
Ukrainian graveyards are filled mostly with those who fell not from bullets, but from shellings. Dead Ukrainians don’t lie.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 22 2024 22:21 utc | 264
RT: West has sent Serbian-made ammo worth $855mn to Ukraine – media
Kiev’s Western backers use Belgrade’s arms exports to supply the Ukrainian military, the Financial Times has reported.
Serbian very dirty role in Ukrainian conflict is not so well known…
Serbia is now fully pro NATO and anti Russia en a propaganda action against Putin is beginning.
Posted by: vargas | Jun 22 2024 22:35 utc | 265
Posted by: Micron | Jun 22 2024 8:35 utc | 141
The article explains some of the tactical significance, as does the video. The village itself is mostly depopulated, but now the Russian Federation forces have easy access to a road to advance towards the next tactically significant objective, and they gained a safer area to marshal their forces before proceeding. Gaining the high ground, and the tall buildings, better allows an army to destroy its opponent while denying the same opportunity to them. We’re not talking about planting flags in a swamp. Russian Federation forces have always sought out the high ground for their artillery, and it’s a given they will continue to do so as they advance Westward.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 22 2024 22:42 utc | 266
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 22 2024 22:16 utc | 262
Funny enough, I remember how I was taken back a bit the first time I saw the word propaganda in the context of the bureaucracy of the Roman Catholic Church. Apparently the word originally didn’t have a negative connotation, which makes sense when you look at its literal meaning and how it was used early on.
The Congregatio de propaganda fide (“Congregation for propagating the faith”) was an organization established in 1622 by Pope Gregory XV as a means of furthering Catholic missionary activity. The word propaganda is from the ablative singular feminine of propogandus, which is the gerundive of the Latin propagare, meaning “to propagate.” The first use of the word propaganda (without the rest of the Latin title) in English was in reference to this Catholic organization.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/propaganda
Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 22 2024 22:55 utc | 267
THE MOST definite outcome of the 404 ground war can be simply deduced from these two latest statements by the antagonists following the Kremlin’s recent T&C for peace:
Kiev: “We will never withdraw our troops from the aforementioned 4 oblasts.”
Moscow: We will never withdraw our troops from the aforementioned 4 oblasts.”
Therefore option 3 will prevail. AFU troops will be killed where they stand. Dilemma solved!
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Jun 22 2024 23:08 utc | 268
Consultants are waiting for your call, do not get left behind.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jun 22 2024 20:35 utc | 250
But Acco. You failed to point out that the “consultants” will be AI bots!!! … but noone will ever notice as they (mostly) have always been.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Jun 22 2024 23:31 utc | 269
Consultants are waiting for your call, do not get left behind.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jun 22 2024 20:35 utc | 250
But Acco. You failed to point out that the “consultants” will be AI bots!!! … but noone will ever notice as they (mostly) have always been.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Jun 22 2024 23:31 utc | 270
Consultants are waiting for your call, do not get left behind.
Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jun 22 2024 20:35 utc | 250
But Acco. You failed to point out that the “consultants” will be AI bots!!! … but noone will ever notice as they (mostly) have always been.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Jun 22 2024 23:31 utc | 271
It’s confusing when the Woke use Alice in Wonderland manipulations to change words to mean what they want them to mean. “When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’.”
Biggest case in point: when they all call a bearded man “her”, or a pregnant woman “he”, leaving the rational to wonder what the hell they are talking about.
So when Stephen Johnson started using TDS to refer to Trump supporters, it threw me off for a bit. Then I realized that he thought he was being clever.
Whatever, dude.
I am not a Trump fan, but I do give props where they are deserved, so that makes me more rational than those with the actual TDS affliction.
Trump ordered US troops out of Syria, but the military then got their ISIS proxies to launch gas attacks x2, (or they might have just massacred people and spun a story about “gas”), then used the Mighty Wurlitzer of propaganda to hype up that tired “Assad used gas on his own people” story. (Funny how they never say that the Kiev regime killing its own people is a Bad Thing. But I digress.)
The most that might have happened is that the CIA might have stopped supporting their terrorist groups when ordered, while the Pentagon carried on supporting theirs. Or, that’s what they tell us, anyway.
In Afghanistan, Trump negotiated a US troop withdrawal treaty. Half left during his term, the others were supposed to leave by May 1st, 2021.
But they didn’t leave. Biden overruled the treaty, prompting the Taliban to renew their efforts, which led to their victory later that year.
Just setting the record straight, although I’m sure that a person who looks at Biden and sees a competent leader in full command of his senses, is not someone that can understand facts.
Posted by: wagelaborer | Jun 22 2024 23:41 utc | 272
I appreciate Mercouris commentary about Ukraine’s horrific economy, as it doesn’t get much attention. Budget deficits of 25%, a shrinking economy and they are propped up by EU/US money while debt collectors are angry.
De-dollarization will proceed in steps. The first big step in a return to sovereignty by BRICS leading the charge. Sure, maybe the world uses dollars 88% of the time but they won’t have to soon – and that will act as a discipline (or even a sanction !) on the US. Dollar reserves are at 55% and I similarly wonder what happens – not at ‘zero’ – but when nations can say ‘yay or nay’.
So, I wonder if the ‘experts’ don’t reason this way. Not the end of $ reserves/trade, just good alternatives soon and fallout from that
Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 23 2024 0:03 utc | 273
https://streamfortyseven.substack.com/p/aleksandr-dugin-on-the-us-2024-election
An interesting response to Dugin’s latest in Arktos Journal. Predicts that neither US, Russia or China will be left standing in a new multipolar world. States that Ukraine is doing better and Russia worse than many are saying.
Just another perspective…
Honzo@169 Free Korea is not Putin’s Rottweiler in my judgment. And part of the rapprochement with Russia is about balancing the PRC which has a powerful element in its government that wants an orderly surrender in the north, at least so far as I can tell. That’s why PRC has consistently supported so much of the US’ economic siege of the people of the north yet refused to go all in a blockade that might lead to a disorderly collapse.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Jun 22 2024 14:32 utc | 202
China and Russia supported the US seige on the DPRK for the same reason- they were not prepared for war. All available information indicates that Russia was still not prepared for war when the SMO was launched. US calculations were that the Russians could be bogged down, exhausted, economically defeated and Putin overthrown, so they set the timing of the conflict with their planned attack on Donetsk and Luhansk. The Russians employed a contingency plan that did in fact spur negotiations, which would have led to a ‘peace’ not much different from the one between 2014 and 2022, but believing they could outright win, the west prevented this. However, they had miscalculated, and Russia and the axis of resistance are growing in power. It’s still the case that nobody in that axis wants nuclear war- what they want is a struggle that leads to destruction of US economic hegemony, and that means keeping the killing to a minimum while dedollarization does its work. The petro dollar is now dead- the opponents of the US want to minimize the risk of catastrophic nuclear confrontation while the western system bleeds out. The US, on the other hand, wants to keep widening the conflict via proxies. DPRK is a powerful tool to dissuade other nations like ROK and Japan, from participating in that madness, because they are the most likely country on earth to maintain continuity in event of a nuclear war. The elites of client states of the US will not survive such an event.
The point of escalation dominance is not to escalate, but to make the enemy understand that if they escalate, you can go further. That’s why this open alliance of RF and DPRK is so important. It makes it that much more difficult and risky to escalate conflict in East Asia.
Posted by: Honzo | Jun 23 2024 0:12 utc | 275
@Scorpion 274:
Good stuff, thanks for the link.
The first part (Dugin’s analysis of the various factions within the US, Biden, Trump ) sounds spot on to me.
Given the lack of effectiveness of Russia’s campaign, it is obviously not “far more militarily capable than Ukraine
Here we have a pretty blatantly false statement. Even if we accept the premise that the SMO hasn’t been effective (ignoring the attritional aspects and just focusing on slow territory gains) it is rank amateur hour to claim that Russia is fighting Ukraine alone when we know that it is NATO supplying weapons, ISR, and even men. Such a bald faced lie calls into question the rest of his article.
The other comical part is claiming that China is going to take advantage and invade Russia. That’s neocon circle jerk rub out material.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 23 2024 0:39 utc | 276
many arguments and data points
Posted by: Micron | Jun 22 2024 13:34 utc | 179
Posted by: Micron | Jun 22 2024 13:39 utc | 183
Posted by: Micron | Jun 22 2024 13:41 utc | 186
Actually what does start to look very deliberate and calculated is NATO’s strategy. Two years into the conflict they have managed to inject methodically more and more lethal weapons on the battlefield, while remaining insulated from Russia’s retaliation, and having been able to probe in depth all of Russia’s defenses. For instance, they now know that they can, with some basic drones, deliver payloads 1000 km into Russia proper with Russian defenses unable to do anything about it. Russian air defenses have been exposed as having more holes than a swiss cheese.
Posted by: Micron | Jun 22 2024 13:47 utc | 188
and rebuttals
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 22 2024 13:40 utc | 185
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 22 2024 14:12 utc | 197
etc
LsD-
And don’t forget that Nato/US now know that they can, with some basic drones take out Russia’s early warning strategic ballistic missile defense radar units with impunity 1500kms behind the front lines in ukraine.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/ukraine-hits-russian-strategic-radar-225600352.html
It isn’t clear if the attack was entirely on Ukraine’s initiative or whether Ukraine’s NATO partners were involved in the attack.
https://weapons.substack.com/p/ukraines-attack-on-russias-strategic
LsD: But of course it was NATO/US running that operation.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-25/ukraine-says-it-struck-anti-missile-defense-radar-in-russia
The source said the strike was aimed at a “Voronezh M” radar near the city of Orsk in the Orenburg region some 1,500 km from the closest territory held by Kyiv’s forces.
The source, who declined to be named, did not say if there was any damage, but the move would make it one of the deepest attempted drone strikes in Russian territory since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-drone-targets-russian-early-warning-radar-record-distance-kyiv-source-2024-05-27/
pin pricks from mosquito attacks in crimea?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/06/12/ukrainian-atacms-rockets-are-blowing-up-russias-best-s-400-air-defenses-as-fast-as-the-s-400s-can-deploy-to-crimea/
LsD – However, I still think it is NATO/US who are on the back foot here and acting desperately, who were completely taken by surpirse in Russia’s psuh back and military assault in Ukraine, and annexing four new Oblasts, and it is the US who are unable to stop Russia acting unilaterally – in any form.
and I still think Russia will win this conflict and mortally wound first NATO’s unity in Europe, and with others help they will mortally wound and fundamentally destablise the US as well before this fight is over.
If the US was to physically engage with their own troops aircraft etc in UKR (they will not because it is the US who are the REAL COWARDS here and their military is dysfunctional now ) then RUSSIA would wipe them out and simultaneously attack the US Mainland and EU bases with Nukes immediately.
So go hard Micron …. The US do not even have any nuclear armed missiles based in Europe anywhere!
The US will have to use it’s submarines and surface ships. But aircraft cannot land when the aircraft carrier is in flames or at the bottom of the sea.
IN the meantime all the US have are Mosquito pin pricks and the entire world majority against them forever.
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 23 2024 0:52 utc | 277
Ritter and McGregor do not direct the Russian military nor speak on behalf of them. Their “forecasts” are irrelevant blather.
What everyone in the public have to say about Ukraine is utterly irrelevant …. with 99.99% of it just shit. Doh Micron, much like your own hyperbolic hypothetical contributions. lol
Is Russia losing the battles in Ukraine?
Is Russia’s national security or borders under critical threat?
Is Russia on the verge of economic political and military defeat?
Is Russia already operating at a ‘war economy’ footing?
Is Russia retreating anywhere?
Is Russia suffering because it has had it’s major energy supplies destroyed or permanently cut?
Is Russia capable of putting well over 1 million trained men under arms tomorrow?
Is Russia supported by an array of military allies?
Can the US and Nato defeat Russia without immediately resorting to nuclear weapons?
Is the US political, economic and military systems utterly dysfunctional?
Since December 2021 who is winning this war hands down between Russia and the US/Nato?
A Hint: it begins with the letter R
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 23 2024 1:11 utc | 278
Scorpion | Jun 23 2024 0:08 utc | 274
Ghost of Zanon | Jun 23 2024 0:39 utc | 276
on what Dugin has to say:
“The upcoming presidential elections in the United States, scheduled for 5 November 2024, hold absolute significance. The outcome of these elections will largely determine the fate not only of the United States and even the entire West, but of humanity as a whole.
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 23 2024 1:32 utc | 279
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 23 2024 0:39 utc | 276
It gets worse. Article by same commenter providing a trenchant critique of Dugin’s Eurasianism. He used to live in Ukraine (maybe still does?).
https://streamfortyseven.substack.com/p/a-reply-to-an-irish-duginist-neo
I agree that some of what he said about China seems far-fetched, but his Dugin analysis is interesting. I’ve been reading Dugin of late, mainly via Arktos which he says is a propaganda site targeting Western conservatives to help fulfill the Eurasion vision set out years earlier in his seminal Foundations of Geopolitics written with a Defence Dept bigwig, a blueprint for creating a Russo-centred Eurasian Empire.
Maybe he’s a con artist, but it’s a well rounded perspective. His analysis of the difference between Dugin’s later Fourth Political Theory and earlier FoG is food for thought. He also derides ‘denazification’ which always struck me as cartoonish propaganda, suspecting since the get-go that ‘Nazi’ groups were set up by Jewish Oligarchs (and neocon CIA cells) to give Putin good causus belli his population would support; hence how an oligarch so quickly negotiated their release after capture. And yet he also well argues that Ukrainians have historical grievances against Russia making this a multi-layered clusterfuck, which also sounds correct, albeit one wherein I suspect lower level players on national government levels are being played by higher level ‘globalist’ elements.
I don’t pretend to know what’s up, but I do know that whatever it is, it for sure ain’t what we are being told!
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 23 2024 0:52 utc | 277
“If the US was to physically engage with their own troops aircraft etc in UKR (they will not because it is the US who are the REAL COWARDS here and their military is dysfunctional now) then RUSSIA would wipe them out and simultaneously attack the US Mainland and EU bases with Nukes immediately.”
If they could do at least the first part of what you state to the US, why don’t they wind this thing up that according to Putin is killing 10,000 Russian soldiers a month? As to the last part of your statement, why wouldn’t the US, UK and France dissolve Russia in response? It would be something of a pyric victory for Russia.
As to your Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 23 2024 1:32 utc | 279 statement, who is relevant? Who is in charge?
Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 23 2024 1:39 utc | 281
Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 23 2024 1:39 utc | 281
Ed, a hypothetical response to a hypothetical is kind of redundant for me to enter into.
eg the first thing I said was the key hypothetical, which is not going to happen: ” If the US was to physically engage with their own troops aircraft etc in UKR …”
Everything else, and your questions now, comes from that non-event. It’s not worth thinking about imho.
Who is in charge?
Not the president, not the two political parties, not the courts, not the media, not the military and not the people. Unless and until the above get their shit together (they will not) it doesn’t matter who is in charge or what name you give them.
Just know the above are not. This seems self-evident and proven beyond all doubt to me, but opinions vary.
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 23 2024 1:53 utc | 282
Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 23 2024 1:38 utc | 280
Google is your friend: or could be.
No matter who uses and applies the term, the meaning of Denazification remains the same in all cases:
Denazification (German: Entnazifizierung) was an Allied initiative to rid German and Austrian society, culture, press, economy, judiciary, and politics of the Nazi ideology following the Second World War. It was carried out by removing those who had been Nazi Party or SS members from positions of power and influence, by disbanding or rendering impotent the organizations associated with Nazism, and by trying prominent Nazis for war crimes in the Nuremberg trials of 1946. The program of denazification was launched after the end of the war and was solidified by the Potsdam Agreement in August 1945.
The term denazification was first coined as a legal term in 1943 by the U.S. Pentagon, intended to be applied in a narrow sense with reference to the post-war German legal system. However, it later took on a broader meaning.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denazification
Every student of history knows how the Nazi Party progressively took over the Legal system and the Courts of Germany from 1933…. and should understand why denazification program across the whole of society was implemented by the Allies, the US Military Govt in particular.
The Russians did exactly the same thing in East Germany, and they called it the exact same thing. That Putin/Russia again apply this term to Ukraine is self-evidence and patently obvious to all but the most propagandised among us in the Western / OECD sphere.
A program of Demilitarisation was also implemented on Nazi Germany’s surrender. Putin isn’t just making it up for no reason at all.
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 23 2024 2:08 utc | 283
War trends.
Ukraine pulled soldiers from Kherson and kharkov regions and suffered losses there in territory and been forced into a deep defensive posture. They only attack locally with no coordinated strategic focus.
They have been draining soldiers from the new York pocket which is the goal of adviika and chasiv yar pincer movements.
Now ukraine has only a couple brigades there, but soon special presidential units will be there. Ukraine is already pulling back in Kharkov, and is stopping counter attacks while simply defending positions.
Next thing to look for is lowering the conscription age.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 23 2024 2:13 utc | 284
Far better to listen to what Putin says verbatim than listening to a biased westerner in the US or eastern Europe, as ti is far better to read Dugin verbatim directly rather than be influenced by other people’s extreme bias and limited knowledge of his actual thoughts, writings and positions.
The number of times Dugin has been verballed bs commentators and journos in the west with false accusations of saying XYZ when he didn’t are uncountable. IN Russia he is not that big a deal as he is made out to be in the ignorant dumbed down west. He is an Historian. He writes books. His work is valued and often times disagreed with inside Russia. AS all academics are across the world.
Alexander Dugin’s writings – some in english, otherwise use a translation app.
https://www.geopolitika.ru/en/person/alexander-dugin
Alexander Dugin Alexander Dugin
Source: Al Mayadeen English
24 Feb 2023 22:53
33 Min Read
Russia has changed its paradigm from realism to the Theory of a Multipolar World, has directly rejected liberalism in all its forms, and has directly challenged modern Western civilization, openly denying it the right to be universal.
https://english.almayadeen.net/articles/analysis/from-special-operation-to-full-scale-war
Decree No. 809: The Foundation of Sovereign Ideology is Laid
December 1, 2022 Alexander Dugin
https://www.thepostil.com/decree-no-809-the-foundation-of-sovereign-ideology-is-laid/
———————-
His daughters writings – Daria Dugina murdered in a terrorist car bomb attack by Ukrainian Govt/Intel operatives inside Russia, supported by the USA and NATO / EU Govt Officials.
https://www.geopolitika.ru/en/person/daria-dugina
https://covertactionmagazine.com/2022/09/19/ukrainian-hit-list-publishes-names-and-addresses-of-alleged-russian-propagandists-turns-out-to-be-based-not-in-ukraine-but-in-langley-va-where-cia-headquarters-is/
In memory of Dasha Platonova-Dugina (scroll up and up for photos and articles speeches)
https://t-me.translate.goog/s/platonova153?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp
No worries, you’re more than welcome.
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 23 2024 2:27 utc | 285
Can’t be. Going by the MoD press releases, the Ukrainian army has been reduced to a ragtag bunch of barefoot 60-years old riding old Hilux technicals with .50 cal juryrigged on top. Gotcha Intelslava !
Posted by: Micron | Jun 22 2024 16:52 utc | 222
I’ve seen the videos with crippled and retards too. So, what’s your point?
Posted by: Suresh | Jun 23 2024 2:33 utc | 286
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 22 2024 20:43 utc | 252
If the enemy is shooting at you from all sides you’re “encircled” …..
No. You’re “fucked” 🙂
Overall a great retort … when all one has is their rhetoric then words are all you need to tear that story apart.
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 23 2024 2:58 utc | 287
I thought Dugin’s analysis of the state of play in the US election is pretty darn good, but I do think his statement about this election determining the fate of humanity is hyperbolic, to say the least.
I am of the mind that Trump has pretty much cut a deal with the neocons and should he win, will seek some sort of deal whereby he continues to allow the flow of weapons to Ukraine in exchange for XYZ. In fact, the deal has already likely been made. Notice how he sprang to the defense of House Speaker Mike Johnson when the paleoconservatives threatened to kick Johnson to the curb. Then all the Senators stood up for him after his conviction in a NY courtroom for felonly falsification of business records.
The way that things are going there is only one party in DC. The war party. Not much will change whether Trump wins or slow Joe. A RFK Jr. could make a difference but they’ll kill him before it comes to that, and he isn’t polling high enough to be a threat (yet.)
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 23 2024 2:59 utc | 288
Simplicius’s summary of blue teamer Ben Rhodes’s suggestion that the US back off gives me hope. My guess is that Rhodes speaks for Obama.
Posted by: migueljose | Jun 22 2024 11:59 utc | 166
I think Rhodes is essentially a pragmatist. He is still an American exceptionalist, but he’s willing to come to grips with the reality that the cost of maintaining US hegemony in every corner of the world has become greater than the cost of losing it. Most of the Washington swamp critters are such brain dead ideologues that they can’t accept reality. It remains to be seen whether this gets enough traction to avert a catastrophe.
Posted by: Mike R | Jun 22 2024 18:59 utc | 235
Guys, seriously. Don’t allow the manipulators to manipulate you over and over again. Rhodes isn’t offering “solutions” he manipulating you and buying time, while muddying the waters.
Please stop it. The solution is clear – death to the Outlaw US empire of Lies ….. get it: “lies”?
Don’t keep falling for their lies. The entire nation need to be brought to it’s knees and disemboweled. They are all criminals or psychopaths or their servants, Rhodes is no different. The media it was published in the same.
(well of course, you can, and probably will keep falling for these lies, and distractions, but at least I put it out there fwiw.) best regards
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 23 2024 3:17 utc | 289
@ HB_Norica | Jun 22 2024 20:43 utc | 252
very good response! thanks..
Posted by: james | Jun 23 2024 3:19 utc | 290
PS iow ‘a catastrophe’ is the ONLY solution for America and the world.
imho
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 23 2024 3:19 utc | 291
@Scorpion | Sun, 23 Jun 2024 00:08:00 GMT | 274
From the article you linked to, regarding mulitpolarity:
I doubt that in a multipolar world that either the US, China, or Russia will be major players, more likely Argentina, France, and Australia.
Whoever wrote that doesn’t understand what multipolar means in an IR context, as none of those states: Argentina, France, or Australia, can rise to great power status. Australia is at best a middle power, while France is a declining power, and Argentina well…I’ll be kind and say it has a long way to go.
Posted by: James M. | Jun 23 2024 4:53 utc | 292
Labo de Michel always has interesting teardowns of MilTech.
Shahed-136 kamikaze drone servomotor ==> https://youtu.be/_jKbRdsi8fA
Posted by: too scents | Jun 23 2024 5:45 utc | 293
Below is the link to a lengthy David Stockman posting about the history of Ukraine and the stupidity of what is happening there. I would be interested in other barflies take on his view of history
https://internationalman.com/articles/david-stockman-on-the-ukrainian-border-war-folly/
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 23 2024 5:58 utc | 294
extract Dugin from a much longer article in
From special operation to full-scale war
Alexander Dugin Alexander Dugin
Source: Al Mayadeen English
24 Feb 2023 22:53
https://english.almayadeen.net/articles/analysis/from-special-operation-to-full-scale-war
Changing the Russian-IR formula: From realism to the conflict of civilizations (and a Multipolar world)
There is one last thing worth considering when analyzing the first year of the Special Military Operation. This time it is a theoretical assessment of the transformation that the war in Ukraine has caused in the space of International Relations.
Here, we have the following picture. The Joe Biden administration, exactly like Bill Clinton, neocon George Bush Jr. and Barak Obama, is rigidly on the side of liberalism in International Relations. They see the world as global and governed by the World Government above the heads of all nation-states. Even the US itself is in their eyes nothing more than a temporary tool in the hands of a cosmopolitan world elite. Hence, the dislike and even hatred of democrats and globalists for any form of American patriotism and for the very traditional identity of Americans.
For the supporters of (global universal) liberalism in international relations (IR), any National State is an obstacle to World Government, and a strong sovereign National State that openly challenges the liberal elite is the real enemy that must be destroyed.
After the fall of the USSR, the world ceased to be bipolar and became unipolar, and the globalist elite, the adherents of liberalism in IR, seized the main levers of the management of mankind.
The defeated, dismembered Russia, as the remnant of the second pole under Yeltsin rule, accepted these rules of the game and agreed with the logic of the liberals in IR. Moscow only had to integrate into the Western world, part with its sovereignty, and start playing by its rules. The goal was to get at least some status in the future World Government, and the new oligarchic top brass did everything they could to fit into the Western world at any cost – even on an individual basis.
All universities in Russia have since this time taken the side of liberalism in the question of International Relations. Realism in IR was forgotten (even if they knew it), equated with “nationalism”, and the word “sovereignty” was not uttered at all.
Everything changed in real politics (but not in education) with the arrival of Putin. Putin was a staunch realist in International Relations and a radical supporter of sovereignty. At the same time, he fully shared the opinion of universality of Western values and considered the social and scientific-technological progress of the West the only way to develop civilization. The only thing he insisted on was sovereignty. Hence the myth of his influence on Trump.
It was realism that brought Putin and Trump together. Otherwise, they are very different. Realism is not against the West, it is against liberalism in International Relations and against World Government. Such is American realism, Chinese realism, European realism, Russian realism and so on.
But the unipolarity that has developed since the beginning of the 90s has turned the heads of the liberals in the International Relations. They believed that the crucial moment had arrived, history as a confrontation of ideological paradigms is over (Fukuyama’s thesis) and the time has come to begin the process of unification of mankind under the World Government with new force. But to do this, residual sovereignty had to be abolished.
This line was strictly at odds with Putin’s realism. Nevertheless, Putin tried to balance on the edge and maintain relations with the West at all costs. This was quite easy to do with the realist Trump, who understood Putin’s will for sovereignty, but became quite impossible with the arrival of Biden in the White House. So Putin, as a realist, came to the limit of possible compromise. The collective West, led by the liberals in international relations pressed Russia harder and harder to start finally dismantling its sovereignty, rather than strengthening it.
The culmination of this conflict was the beginning of the Special Military Operation. Globalists actively supported the militarization and Nazification of Ukraine. Putin rebelled against this because he understood that the collective West was preparing for a symmetrical campaign – to “demilitarize” and “denazify” Russia itself.
Liberals turned a blind eye to the rapid flowering of Russophobic neo-Nazism in Ukraine itself and, moreover, actively promoted it, contributing to its militarization as much as possible, while Russia itself was accused of the same thing – “militarism” and “Nazism,” trying to equate Putin with Hitler.
Putin started the Special Military Operation as a realist, no more than that, but a year later the situation changed. It became clear that Russia is at war with the modern Western liberal civilization as a whole, with globalism and the values that the West tries to impose on everyone else. This turn in Russia’s awareness of the world situation is perhaps the most important result of the Special Military Operation.
From the defense of sovereignty, the war has turned into a clash of civilizations (by the way correctly predicted by S. Huntington). And Russia no longer simply insists on independent governance, sharing Western attitudes, criteria, norms, rules and values, but acts as an independent civilization – with its own attitudes, criteria, norms, rules and values. Russia is no longer the West at all. Not a European country, but a Eurasian Orthodox civilization.
This is exactly what Putin declared in his speech on September 30th on the occasion of the reception of the four new subjects, then in the Valdai speech, and repeated many times in other speeches. And finally, in Edict 809, Putin approved the foundations of a state policy to protect Russian traditional values, a set that not only differs significantly from liberalism, but in some points is the exact opposite of it.
Russia has changed its paradigm from realism to the Theory of a Multipolar World, has directly rejected liberalism in all its forms, and has directly challenged modern Western civilization, openly denying it the right to be universal.
Putin no longer believes in the West, and he explicitly calls modern Western civilization “satanic”. In that use of terms, one can easily identify a direct appeal to Orthodox eschatology and theology, as well as a hint of confrontation between the capitalist and socialist systems of the Stalin era. Today, it is true, Russia is not a socialist State. But this is the result of the defeat suffered by the USSR in the early 1990s, and Russia and other post-Soviet countries found themselves in the position of ideological and economic colonies of the global West.
Putin’s entire reign until February 24, 2022 was a preparation for this decisive moment, but it used to remain within the framework of realism (the Western way of development + sovereignty, that is). Now, after a year of severe trials and terrible sacrifices that Russia has suffered, the formula has changed: sovereignty + civilizational identity, i.e. the Russian way.
[ my emphasis ]
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 23 2024 6:07 utc | 295
Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 22 2024 14:17 utc | 199
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | Jun 22 2024 15:34 utc | 208
For what it’s worth, the second video is long enough to see the point of impact after the dust has settled, the first isn’t and I haven’t been able to find a longer one of the same strike as yet.
https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/36685
https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/36632
There is a definite crater at the point of impact, so maybe FAB rather than ODAB in this case. Here are a couple of recent ODAB-1500 strikes for comparison. The ODABs appear to produce a more pronounced red afterglow in the explosion cloud, dunno if that is a reliable distinction.
https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/8822
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/111221
I guess I’m more inclined to take the recent strikes to be the FAB-3000s they are claimed to be rather than ODAB-3000, unless better images turn up.
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 23 2024 6:25 utc | 296
Posted by: too scents | Jun 23 2024 5:45 utc | 293
Snap =)
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 23 2024 6:45 utc | 297
Dugin … and the time has come to begin the process of unification of mankind under the World Government with new force. But to do this, residual sovereignty had to be abolished.
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 23 2024 6:07 utc | 295
imv almost all forms of “free trade” is part of this force at play. The best example being the TPP that eventually collapsed and was blocked, with a minor form created by some of the nations. The world govt is a wispy illusory nefarious thing imo, it just mega wealthy collections of very powerful people operating above and also close to nation state govts. It’s a club and you ain’t in it. It began way back, it’s old wealth going back to the 1600s and the east india companies and the companies that established the American colonies and ran the revolutionary war for example. Same bone different horse including late comers to the club.
eg imagine a huge Company with a 100,000 Shareholders …. but where only the top dozen biggest
shareholders have the power to make every decision and run the Board of directors no matter what the rest of the shareholders think or want. That is what the world govts like a massive scale. A bit like the Bilderberg group, but if you can see it, or name it then that isn’t IT. It’s only a franchise!
This YPP like system works via Commerce Trade Industry Banking and Corporations being superior to and overriding Nation States rights and their sovereignty under the “Law”. Where national governments are compelled to honor all preexisting trade deals, and unable to ever introduced new laws in the nations self-interest. If they change the laws then the Corporations can sue for loss of income and profits imposing onerous imposts on the govt and taxpayers.
It’s how Chevron got found guilty in court of environmental damages in Ecuador but Chevron never had to pay, and actually came out the winner ‘legally’ and lead counsel for the plaintiffs, Steven Donzinger was sent to prison in the US. https://www.amnestyusa.org/updates/chevron-found-guilty-in-8-billion-ecuadorian-human-rights-and-environmental-case/
That is the ‘world govt club’ using the powers inherent in the global legal / economic system they have created to protect themselves – and literally get away with murder.
This is how the ‘world govt’ generally operates, ie behind the scenes (like think tanks do) influencing govt actions like embracing the TPP as being good for everyone …. they are private wealth corporatist capitalists and financiers who rule via multiple international “institutions” from the IMF WTO and subsequently in broad scale trade agreements and trading blocks like the EU.
Any recalcitrant state will eventually was to be dealt with Militarily and by force – first comes the global media campaign of being a tyrant a dictator or a human rights abusers, accusations of being a terrorist state or killing your own citizens, next comes the sanctions, then comes the UNSC resolutions … and eventually NATO or a coalition of the willing invasion ….
But things are trying to change … the multi-polar global south world are fighting back. BRICS is a part of that. The recalcitrant sovereignty states are now fighting back. Will they win?
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 23 2024 7:01 utc | 298
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/114136
There is some kind of flash mob on the Potemkin Stairs in Odessa. Young people sing songs in Russian in chorus.
It seems that the singers will soon be in trouble…
Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 23 2024 7:58 utc | 299
But things are trying to change … the multi-polar global south world are fighting back. BRICS is a part of that. The recalcitrant sovereignty states are now fighting back. Will they win?
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 23 2024 7:01 utc | 298
They already constitute the largest bloc of population & manufacturing capacity.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jun 23 2024 8:46 utc | 300