Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 21, 2024

Ukraine Open Thread 2024-147

News & views (related to the war in Ukraine) ...

Posted by b on June 21, 2024 at 13:45 UTC | Permalink

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Zelensky would like .8 trillion $$, please.

Posted by: nwwoods | Jun 21 2024 13:47 utc | 1

Not usually my thing, but anyone seen the FAB3000 in action?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxvAG-9_gGM

Posted by: Newbie | Jun 21 2024 13:56 utc | 2

NATO Related:

MI6 Coup in Macedonia Unravels

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 21 2024 13:56 utc | 3

Nothing new, azov heroes shooting anyone retreating, but I remembered that some weeks ago I joked that wherever they were the AFU front was about to fall.

Went looking and noticed they are in the border between Karkiv and Luhanska just west of the LOC (answering in a minor RF advance, quite unremarkable, from Novovodiane?)

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/azov-leader-admits-to-ukrainian-use-of-blocking-detachments/

Posted by: Newbie | Jun 21 2024 14:13 utc | 4

Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of June 21, 2024)

From June 15 to 21, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out 14 group strikes with high-precision air and ground-based weapons, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles, during which storage facilities of military-technical property, infrastructure of military airfields, electrical substations that provided the work of enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine, and places of preparation for the use of unmanned boats were hit. The points of temporary deployment of nationalist formations and foreign mercenaries were also affected.

During the week, units of the North group of forces improved the situation along the front line and defeated the manpower and equipment of two formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a marine brigade, as well as two air defense brigades. In addition, 17 counterattacks by enemy assault groups were repelled.

The losses of the Armed Forces amounted to up to 1980 servicemen, four tanks, two armored combat vehicles, including the Stryker armored personnel carrier made in the USA, 20 vehicles, combat vehicles of the HIMARS multiple rocket launchers made in the USA and Grad, 22 field artillery guns, as well as three electronic warfare stations Bukovel-AD.

The units of the Zapad group of forces occupied more advantageous positions and defeated the formations of three mechanized, assault and airmobile brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. During the week, 12 counterattacks by enemy assault groups were repelled.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 3,330 servicemen, two tanks, 15 armored combat vehicles, 34 vehicles, 25 field artillery guns, including 10 of foreign production. Four Nota electronic warfare stations were also destroyed.

The units of the Southern Group of Troops improved the situation along the front line and defeated the manpower and equipment of three mechanized, motorized infantry and amphibious assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Six counterattacks by enemy assault groups were repelled.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 4,290 servicemen in this direction, a Leopard tank manufactured by Germany, 19 armored combat vehicles, including four M113 armored personnel carriers manufactured by the United States, 53 vehicles, 47 field artillery guns, as well as two MLRS launchers, including one RAK SA-12 of Croatian production.

The units of the Center group of forces improved the tactical situation during the week, and also defeated the formations of three mechanized and one infantry brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the defense brigade. We repelled 31 enemy counterattacks.

During the specified period, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this area amounted to 2,530 military personnel, 13 armored combat vehicles, including six MaxxPro and Humvee made in the USA, 23 vehicles, 53 field artillery guns and two MLRS Grad combat vehicles.

The units of the Vostok group of forces actively occupied more advantageous positions and liberated the settlement of Zagornoye in the Zaporozhye region. They defeated clusters of manpower and equipment of the mechanized and motorized infantry brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as two air defense brigades.

The enemy lost up to 970 soldiers, ten armored combat vehicles, 30 vehicles and 18 field artillery pieces, 11 of them foreign-made. In addition, three electronic warfare stations "Bukovel-AD" and "Enclave" were destroyed.

Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated formations of the infantry and mountain assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as two air defense brigades.

The enemy's losses amounted to up to 610 soldiers, 24 vehicles, and 29 field artillery pieces. In addition, the launchers of the HIMARS and MLRS multiple launch rocket systems manufactured in the United States were destroyed.

By means of air defense, the following were destroyed: a long-range guided missile "Neptune-MD", eight guided aircraft bombs Hammer manufactured in France, 55 HIMARS rockets manufactured in the United States, as well as 397 unmanned aerial vehicles.

During the past night alone, the enemy used 117 unmanned aerial vehicles of the aircraft type against civilian targets on the territory of the Russian Federation, 114 of which were shot down.

The forces of the Black Sea Fleet destroyed six Ukrainian unmanned boats in the area of the Crimean Peninsula tonight.

During the week, 37 Ukrainian servicemen surrendered on the line of contact.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have lost: 613 aircraft, 276 helicopters, 26,188 unmanned aerial vehicles, 531 anti-aircraft missile systems, 16,397 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,346 multiple rocket launchers, 10,706 field artillery and mortars, as well as 22,757 units of special military vehicles.

Posted by: rumod report | Jun 21 2024 14:13 utc | 5

@ LoveDonbass | Jun 21 2024 13:56 utc | 3

interesting read.. thanks.

Posted by: james | Jun 21 2024 15:05 utc | 6

@Posted by: rumod report | Jun 21 2024 14:13 utc | 5

So, even using the Russian military reports of Ukrainian losses, which do not include losses away from the front (e.g. with that FAB 3000 hit), Ukrainian losses are about 60,000 a month. Utterly unsustainable, then add in the huge losses of artillery as well. We are reaching peak Ukrainian losses as there are simply not enough Ukrainian soldiers to maintain this level of losses for very long.

Posted by: Roger | Jun 21 2024 15:07 utc | 7

The State Department announced that it has lifted its ban on the use of American weapons by the notorious Azov Brigade in Ukraine, an ultra-nationalist outfit widely described as “neo-fascist," even "neo-Nazi."

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/azov-ban-lifted/

Posted by: Apollyon | Jun 21 2024 15:11 utc | 8

Trump proves Putin right
https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/513496-cosas-locas-trump-declaraciones-biden-ucrania

Posted by: Elber | Jun 21 2024 15:35 utc | 9

Ukraine Weekly Update, 21st June 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-a1d

Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | Jun 21 2024 15:37 utc | 10

Our leaders have decided to go to war against Russia, and are too coward to look their people in the eye and say it out loud.

BTW: Yemen rolled up a US spy network. If we did the same, there would be no politician left - not in government, and not in the opposition.

Posted by: Passerby | Jun 21 2024 15:43 utc | 11

If Ukraine will last long enough, then at some point, the thinking is that fancy AI systems will give the Western powers an edge in the battle against Russia. They are pouring insane levels of funding into getting AI models to develop and design better AI models. Performance improvements will be exponential. From cracking encrypted communications to optimizing the battle field, working with surveillance data and who knows what else, this super AI will rule the battlefield. Of course, no one is really sure how good it will be?

Here is a link to give you a taste of what is up: https://situational-awareness.ai/

It is a two step process: 1. Create massive AI data centers, and 2. Create super AI software by using AI tools. Of course step two is repeated again and again, with every step becoming more powerful.

Using AI to design AI would normally not be advisable, but these are special times that the Western powers are in. I am not sure this stuff is worth talking about here, but my thinking was to just share this thought. AI LLM is a highly technical area.

Both China and Russia know the importance of AI on the battlefield and both are very big players. Putin said their AI effort is massive and is more than the atomic bomb effort of the 1940s; but you hear very little out of Russia since they are not talking. China’s AI effort is around equal to the USA’s. A betting person would be putting money on China winning this one.

Most people lack understanding of AI tech and tend to belittle it. But just look at the funding. People with money are throwing money at this. If you want a billion dollar nowadays, the easiest way is to get half a dozen AI tech people and form a startup. I few years ago, this same group could have expected $200,000 to get going; after all, it is only software development. But right now, you can ask for a billion; totally insane.

Posted by: meshpal | Jun 21 2024 15:47 utc | 12

i thought this was interesting... from intel slava

Seoul is concerned about the rapprochement between Moscow and Pyongyang and believes that the signed agreement forms a military alliance.
Therefore, South Korea is going to reconsider its attitude towards the supply of lethal weapons to Kiev.
Previously, the South Koreans did not supply anything to Ukraine.

Posted by: james | Jun 21 2024 15:50 utc | 13

Putin claims the "special military operation" is to protect Russia's national security. Instead it drove Finland and Sweden to NATO, and now it made South Korea decide to arm Ukraine.

Posted by: Inka | Jun 21 2024 15:52 utc | 14

Posted by: Roger | Jun 21 2024 15:07 utc | 7 "krainian losses are about 60,000 a month"

Odd, given Putin said the number was less than that. His number was for KIA, wounded, not returnable to the battle and those removed by disease.

I would thought Putin would know what he was talking about.

Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 21 2024 15:52 utc | 15

Posted by: Inka | Jun 21 2024 15:52 utc | 14 "South Korea decide to arm Ukraine"

I saw that. But I have not seen when and what.

Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 21 2024 15:54 utc | 16

lovedonbass@1356

Thanks for sharing the link. What becomes ever more evident and even obvious is that Perfidious Albion must be demolished as the very germ-plasm of colonialism and imperialism.

The ruling elites of that "sceptered Isle" constitute a butt-pimple on all of Britain and extended into Northern Ireland...along with the remnants of the imperial infrastructure including those hidden-hole banks in the Channel Islands, the Caymans and Bermuda...for the exclusive benefit of individuals and entities who prefer to leave tax-burdens upon the middling classes and working stiff serfs.

For the benefit of the entire world, the British monarchy needs to be dissolved, as among other factors, they happen to be the planet's #1 land owner...mostly in the Dominions. Perhaps foremost amongst the nefarious actors are the bank$ters, insurance magnates, media-barons and similar dark entities headquartered in the private political entity known as "The City", as well as "The Square Mile". That enclave of invested evil needs to be drawn and quartered, removed from its current status and its owners and facilitators exiled to St. Helena.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jun 21 2024 16:02 utc | 17

Akin to an overblown balloon, the coup regime in Kiev's conscripts and a smattering of volunteer veterans are being steadily grinned down by R.U. forces. Now obliged to conscript dog-catchers and postal delivery individuals, both male and female; it becomes clear that the Maidanists are on their last legs.

The gradually accelerating pressure by R.U. forces are steadily advancing on numerous fronts, to the point where those small cities of the Donbass, with their "water-hazards" and high-rise buildings...heve largely been invested and liberated. Once the Ukie forces are pushed into open fields and bits of forested lands, the game will be over, as the collapse will come suddenly and ubiquitously.

Posted by: aristodemos | Jun 21 2024 16:11 utc | 18

L'Empereur Bonaparte souhaite un prompt rétablissement au webmaster. Il faut du courage pour gérer un site Web comme celui-ci.

Posted by: Napoleon | Jun 21 2024 16:11 utc | 19

Inka@1552

Inka is a stinka....a tool and a disruptor. AI, perhaps?

Posted by: aristodemos | Jun 21 2024 16:12 utc | 20

Posted by: meshpal | Jun 21 2024 15:47 utc | 12

What people also don’t realise is C3 AI is a work-around/substitute for experienced formation commanders, just as modern weapon systems benefit average soldiers more than experienced ones. Look at the rabble being recruited into the US Armed forces, they’re just there to enable semi-automated systems to be manned and operated. ISR has downgraded, for now, the importance of good field craft or tactical skills.

Why bother spending billions on training, when you can recruit drone operators, is the thinking behind the new army’s of the West, hence all the talk of conscription, something the professional soldiers hated. Ideology is now more important than competence and defending the state from internal enemies more important than focusing on exterior threats. I’m waiting for bought commissions/deferments and press gangs to reappear, as they have in Ukraine.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 21 2024 16:17 utc | 21

Ukraine has turned out to be Putin’s Afghanistan. Not only did Putin fail, regarding his unrealistic goals, his war has turned his stated objectives into a joke.

Before the war, arming Ukraine with tiny Javelin missiles was the big deal. The SMO has had the opposite effect of disarmament. Now everyone is sending Ukraine weapons, unimaginable before the war: Stingers, Patriots, maybe F16s.

Putin’s SMO has failed to make Russia safer. Russian oil facilities, citizens are being hit with these new weapons as we speak, unthinkable before the war.

Forget about the idiotic term denazification. Wars tend radicalize people and I doubt the Ukrainians will forgive. This war is the best recruiting weapon for the Asov brigade.

Forget about keeping Ukraine out of NATO. They are already like a super member … the center of attention, and receiving more weapons than the average NATO state could dream of.

These failures don’t even include the pathetic stalemate on the battlefield. Putin’s latest peace proposal was a joke. Russia is bogged down, why would Ukraine give Russia land they can’t take after two years?

Ironically Putin’s only success relates to naked conquest, not the befuddled goals of the SMO. He has turned the sea of Asov into a Russian lake and secured a land corridor to Crimea … but that happened two years ago.

Take the win Vlad, and declare a unilateral cease-fire. Stop this Slavic genocide. Your forces haven’t done shit in two years, besides kill a lot of people… on both sides.

Posted by: Napoleon | Jun 21 2024 16:18 utc | 22

james | Jun 21 2024 15:50 utc | 13
Interesting, I wonder what the South hopes to gain by such a decision? The North had pretty good relations with the USSR (which like most things related took a hiatus during the 90s), and has already benefited from the sharing of Russian ICBM technology. Plus in light of Russia's probable response to the US's decision to allow the use of long range weaponry to hit targets inside Russia proper, the DPRK stands to gain even more. And then there's the further possibility of the DPRK joining the BRICS. Comparatively, I'd say the South (the descendants of collaborators with the Japanese occupation) won't get much in return for their day late/dollar short move.
Thanks for the heads up on that.

Posted by: robjira | Jun 21 2024 16:19 utc | 23

Of course step two is repeated again and again, with every step becoming more powerful.

When one photocopies a thing, you maintain the defects and assumptions present in the original. Current model AI, including your proposed Skynet, would be utterly brilliant at certain tasks.. but completely child like and clueless..even more than a child or animal..in others. It is not a true synthetic intelligence and is likely giving the same imbeciles who brought us to this juncture ideas they can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat by generative AI. It's childish.

Messianic views of the current weak generative AI models focused on specific tasks have as you would expect engendered irrational assumptions and outlandish projections.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 21 2024 16:23 utc | 24

Therefore, South Korea is going to reconsider its attitude towards the supply of lethal weapons to Kiev.
Previously, the South Koreans did not supply anything to Ukraine.
Posted by: james | Jun 21 2024 15:50 utc | 13

Is that really such a good idea?
North Korea only exists because Mao wanted it that way. An expensive, unloved but indispensable buffer zone for China. In Putin they have now found a real and powerful friend - who has openly announced his support for the West's opponents in response to their arms deliveries to Ukraine. It could well be that modern weapons systems from Russia will soon arrive in North Korea, and it could of course also be that a few North Korean divisions will soon arrive in Ukraine. If they had any sense left, even the USA's most ardent friends would try to limit the damage and at least show some consideration for their population. But like the last fucked-up whores, they are subservient to their pimp and know nothing else. In May, a production facility of a German arms factory in Berlin burned down - it could have been professional arson. The war is coming closer – your politicians wanted it that way.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Jun 21 2024 16:24 utc | 25

I hear a delusional Frenchman somewhere here crying into his beer about Russian dominance. It's not even worth engaging with someone who is so deeply deluded about reality. It's like discussing orbital dynamics with a flat earther.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 21 2024 16:26 utc | 26

Posted by: Inka | Jun 21 2024 15:52 utc | 14


Equivocation fallacy.

Russia defines "protecting national security" as "no NATO in Ukraine or Georgia" ....not Finland or Sweden.

Posted by: TGL | Jun 21 2024 16:29 utc | 27

Previously, the South Koreans did not supply anything to Ukraine.

Posted by: james | Jun 21 2024 15:50 utc | 13

Yes, but no, that is not completely correct. Previously, South Korea "lent" 155mm artillery shells to the US army, and in turn the US "gave" a equal number of 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine.
Better lie next time.
ki

Posted by: Passerby | Jun 21 2024 16:30 utc | 28

Posted by: Napoleon | Jun 21 2024 16:18 utc | 22


Russia is now happy to de-militarize the combined West on the way to sidestepping the dollar. Simply means that precisely at the moment you you can no longer finance military development and subterfuge in Russia, you will doubly realize your conventional force is an embarrassment.

Posted by: TGL | Jun 21 2024 16:35 utc | 29

meshpal @12

I believe you might want to rethink how much of an advantage the US has in AI.

A pet peeve of mine is the rather steep decline in STEM educational attainment among American domestic students. Americans like to imagine Iranians to be dumb camel jockeys, even though Persians are not Arabs. The fact is that Iran produces more domestic STEM grads than the USA does, and this is in absolute numbers and not percentage of the population. Russia produces even more. Of course, China produces more than the rest of the world combined, but the point is that Russia has an enormous pool of developed talent to draw on that is greater than its population size might lead one to believe.

As well, a significant portion of AI development in the USA is directed towards examining why AI keeps tending towards stating things such as Black Americans being more prone to violent crime, and curtailing that tendency in their AI models. It is unlikely that Russian AI developers are putting in so much effort to hamstring their AI like that.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 21 2024 16:36 utc | 30

fancy AI systems will give the Western powers an edge

Here is a link to give you a taste of what is up: https://situational-awareness.ai/

---

Garbage in. Garbage out. Nvidia is the making bank. That is the real bottom line.

Posted by: too scents | Jun 21 2024 16:40 utc | 31

What the End of Petrodollars Means | Atlantic Council

🔶️The age of the petrodollar is over. Saudi Arabia announced on June 13, 2024, that it will not renew a historic agreement with the United States, signed in June 1974, to sell oil exclusively in U.S. dollars in exchange for security guarantees. The agreement has ensured that the dollar dominates global oil trade, and its demise is the latest step in a current trend toward de-dollarization, as countries in the BRICS and regions such as the Middle East and Asia move to promote local currencies in cross-border payments—gradually reducing the dollar's importance in international finance. The end of the petrodollar reflects significant changes not only in U.S.-Saudi relations, but also in the global balance of power.

🔶️Let's take a look back at the Nixon administration. America suffered from high inflation and large current account deficits while the Vietnam War continued. This put devaluation pressure on the dollar and threatened a run on U.S. gold reserves. In 1971, the U.S. ended the dollar's gold convertibility—the linchpin of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates. In 1973, major currencies began to move against each other. Then came the oil shock in the fall, when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut oil production and banned oil shipments to the U.S. during the Yom Kippur War.

🔶️Fifty years later, the U.S.'s once-dominant global position has weakened noticeably. Its share of world GDP has fallen from 40% in 1960 to 25%. China's economy has overtaken the U.S. in purchasing power parity. China now has to compete for influence with an increasingly assertive Beijing, while itself being pressured by allies such as Europe and other countries that want to become more independent from Washington in financial and foreign policy. In particular, many countries have tried to develop alternative cross-border payment arrangements to the dollar to reduce their vulnerability to Washington's increasing economic and financial sanctions.
.
P.S.
Yesterday, Chancellor Scholz announced in Germany that he can suspend elections by law in the event of a threat.
That has NEVER happened in Germany, because there are elections in 2025... what does he know that we don't know?

Posted by: ossi | Jun 21 2024 16:46 utc | 32

Garbage in. Garbage out. Nvidia is the making bank. That is the real bottom line.

Posted by: too scents | Jun 21 2024 16:40 utc | 30
.
.
.
Correct!
And is it dependent on whom?
On Taiwan, what will China do if NATO makes the mistake of its life in Europe and forces Russia into open war!
China is using the opportunity 100% because it will not come again to force the USA into a two-front, possibly three-front war and thus to its end

Posted by: ossi | Jun 21 2024 16:50 utc | 33

Posted by: TGL | Jun 21 2024 16:29 utc | 27

Russia defines "protecting national security" as "no NATO in Ukraine or Georgia" ....not Finland or Sweden.

Finland has a 1340 km border with Russia, and Sweden in NATO means NATO can choke the Baltic Sea.

Posted by: Inka | Jun 21 2024 16:53 utc | 34

When one photocopies a thing, you maintain the defects and assumptions present in the original. Current model AI, including your proposed Skynet, would be utterly brilliant at certain tasks.. but completely child like and clueless..even more than a child or animal..in others. It is not a true synthetic intelligence and is likely giving the same imbeciles who brought us to this juncture ideas they can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat by generative AI. It's childish.

Messianic views of the current weak generative AI models focused on specific tasks have as you would expect engendered irrational assumptions and outlandish projections.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jun 21 2024 16:23 utc | 24

I think you're right. And, Cui Bono from all the hype? :Shaky western markets desperately looking for more international cash at a moment when the world is downgrading everything coming out of the west up to and including its dollars and T bills.

In a situation where all material indicators show a rapidly declining west, our RC masters are putting on an AI magic show, via their MSM, to over-awe rivals and would be investors.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 21 2024 16:53 utc | 35

Can we please have some fresh Open and Palestine thread as well? Much obliged, in any case.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 21 2024 16:54 utc | 36

@james 13, james | Jun 21 2024 15:50 utc

It's an interesting report but SK's been moving ammo for NATO for a while now.

You'd also think they might be a little more cautious about engaging in what might be perceived as hostile acts against NK's new bestest friend.

Posted by: S.O. | Jun 21 2024 16:58 utc | 37

Ukro losses are hge but that has no meaning. Ukraone can sacrifice another 500000 without problem. Fighting the Russians abd serving the west is something they accept as the meanings of their lives.

We have seen that Ukraine can escalate and soon they will have nuclear weapons

Posted by: vargas | Jun 21 2024 17:02 utc | 38

Posted by: Inka | Jun 21 2024 16:53 utc | 33
.
.
Block with what??
And if such comments also mention the Arctic route, which is currently being massively expanded, your one-sided negative comments about Russia are firstly burdensome, secondly one-sided and thirdly mostly made up. Russia has everything to do without the Baltic Sea itself as a transport route, but in return it also has everything to hinder traffic there or even make it impossible...which would be the end of Finland.

Posted by: ossi | Jun 21 2024 17:04 utc | 39

@james #13 "Previously, the South Koreans did not supply anything to Ukraine"

CSIS March this year: https://www.csis.org/analysis/can-south-korean-105-millimeter-ammunition-rescue-ukraine

Last year, the Biden administration worked with South Korea's Yoon administration to send over 300,000 155-millimeter (mm) shells to Ukraine. The administration may need to re-tap the South Korean munitions stockpile to arm Ukraine in the face of dwindling stockpiles and congressional inertia. The good news is that South Korea may be willing to cooperate.

They did a kind of "shell game" where they sent the ammo to the US and the US depleted stocks they would not otherwise have been able to and sent it to Ukraine.

Posted by: billb | Jun 21 2024 17:04 utc | 40

Everybody is talking about fab3000. ;But this bomb is not effective aginst small combat groups.
Dina says tha Ukraine is going to attack this week. The entire west is eabger to participate.

Posted by: vargas | Jun 21 2024 17:05 utc | 41

Posted by: Napoleon | Jun 21 2024 16:18 utc | 22
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Your argument is utterly non sensical on many fronts. Perhaps you've been malinformed again.

Posted by: AI | Jun 21 2024 17:16 utc | 42

Posted : vargas | Jun 21 2024 17:05 utc | 40

"Dima says Ukraine is going to attack this week ..."

And the week before that, he said the same, and the week before, and the week before.

He's got eyeballs to grab, and ads to sell. "Step right up, watch the monkey wrap his tail around the flagpole!"

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 21 2024 17:20 utc | 43

"Isn't it better to go all the way?"

That's what President Putin answered to the question what it mean to Russia that the West keeps escalating the Ukraine conflict.

"We see it. We observe it. As you said, they constantly raise the degree and escalate the situation.

Apparently they expect us to be scared at some point.

But at the same time, they also say that they want to achieve a strategic defeat of Russia on the battlefield.

What does this mean for Russia? It means the end of its statehood. This is what it means.

It means the end of the thousand year history of the Russian state. I think this is clear to everyone.

And then the question arises, why should we be afraid? Isn't it better to go all the way, then?

This is elementary formal logic, a course that I studied at the University for six months, but I remember it well.

I even remember the teachers who taught this course.

Therefore, I think that those who think so, and even more so, SAY SO, make another big mistake.

Posted by: xor | Jun 21 2024 17:20 utc | 44

fab3000 ... is not effective aginst small combat groups

Posted by: vargas | Jun 21 2024 17:05 utc | 40

---

We shall see. The Circular Error Probability is dependent upon the release altitude and target distance. The precision improves with available angle of attack.

The "fab"s are fuel air bombs. Fuse timing is critical and the projectile cannot be flying so fast that its ignition cloud is far behind it.

Can it deploy a parachute for air burst?

We shall see.

Posted by: too scents | Jun 21 2024 17:21 utc | 45

Ukro losses are hge but that has no meaning. Ukraone can sacrifice another 500000 without problem. Fighting the Russians abd serving the west is something they accept as the meanings of their lives.

We have seen that Ukraine can escalate and soon they will have nuclear weapons

Posted by: vargas | Jun 21 2024 17:02 utc | 37

Yes and just wait until the achieve the "singularity"! Of course, this will allow the west a god like power with which they will smite Russia, Palestine, China and anyone who stands in their way.

For a sad sack, misanthrope, you sure are full of hope and enthusiasm for what, by all appearances, is a dying imperialism in the west. Funny that.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 21 2024 17:29 utc | 46

@44

Wrong. Not fuel air bombs. All TNT.

Posted by: saner | Jun 21 2024 17:31 utc | 47

Wrong. Not fuel air bombs. All TNT.

Posted by: saner | Jun 21 2024 17:31 utc | 46

---

Indeed.

http://roe.ru/eng/catalog/aerospace-systems/air-bombs/kab-1500lg-f-e/

Horses for courses.

Posted by: too scents | Jun 21 2024 17:36 utc | 48

correction: too scents | Jun 21 2024 17:36 utc | 47

---

Somehow I hot KAB instead of ODAB in that post.

https://tass.com/defense/1760351


The big ODAB bombs aren't in Rosoboronexport catalog.


Posted by: too scents | Jun 21 2024 17:45 utc | 49

@ robjira | Jun 21 2024 16:19 utc | 23

thanks... yes, it is interesting if true that south korea is going to reconsider its support for usa/ukraine in all of this..

@ Oliver Krug | Jun 21 2024 16:24 utc | 25

'my politicans' are in canada, lol - but may as well be in the usa for all their subservient actions...

@ Passerby | Jun 21 2024 16:30 utc | 28

it's a quote from intel slava, so nothing is perfect.. yes, sk have been in bed with the usa and that is the rationale for any support they offer ukraine, i am sure..

@ S.O. | Jun 21 2024 16:58 utc | 36

i was impressed with the south korean leader that wanted peace with north korea and i thought trump made some inroads in this regard too, but what do i know?? they got rid of the sk leader, but war peace guru for everything except palestine - trumpy baby - might get elected again..

@ billb | Jun 21 2024 17:04 utc | 39

sk just serve their masters - usa, until they see how brics is going to alter their neighbourhood significantly... i see malaysia is now going to be a part of brics.. that is huge and right in sk's backyard..

BRICS Financial System Accelerates As Malaysia Plans To Join BRICS & De-Dollarize Asia

Posted by: james | Jun 21 2024 17:54 utc | 50

Posted by: TGL | Jun 21 2024 16:29 utc | 27 "Russia defines "protecting national security" as "no NATO in Ukraine or Georgia" ....not Finland or Sweden."

About 2 years ago Putin was saying that all the countries that joined NATO since the end of the Soviet Union had to leave. Now they can stay and only Ukraine can't join?

Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 21 2024 17:59 utc | 51

War trends:

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkov is sputtering out, although they did succeed in multiple points in pushing Russia back.but Russia sure did flatten volchansk but good. Losses couldn't have been low, for either side both were pushing hard.

The new York area is coming under pressure, ukraine had been keeping minimal troops there, so there's going to be another rush of reserves there.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 21 2024 18:06 utc | 52

Posted by: vargas | Jun 21 2024 17:02 utc | 37

You are more optimistic than me about the West, and I live there.

Posted by: Passerby | Jun 21 2024 18:13 utc | 53

@Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 21 2024 15:52 utc | 15

Losses have escalated in the past few weeks, Putin would have been using historical averages perhaps for the past few months.

Posted by: Roger | Jun 21 2024 18:14 utc | 54

Now they can stay and only Ukraine can't join?

Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 21 2024 17:59 utc | 50

Go back to Putin's speech... he's not-so-subtly stating NATO is effectively dead when they wrap up business in Ukraine.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jun 21 2024 18:18 utc | 55

NATO Related:

MI6 Coup in Macedonia Unravels
Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 21 2024 13:56 utc | 3

Well it is too late for Macedonia to get out of NATO and get its name back. The damage has been done and the West got its way.

Posted by: MiniMO | Jun 21 2024 18:24 utc | 56

@Posted by: vargas | Jun 21 2024 17:02 utc | 37

Ukraine cannot "sacrifice another 500,000 with no problem", they are having difficulty kidnapping what few people they can find as Ukrainian men en masse hide and attempt to leave the country. Go look at some actual demographics for the age group 20-35 and see the effects of the massive post-Soviet collapse in births. Then factor in at least half of those generations leaving the country to find jobs. Then add in all those in critical positions, they are already so desperate Ukraine is eating into these and therefore disrupting production, transport etc. Then take into account all those that are unhealthy/disabled etc. Oh and then in addition to that the average new soldier is getting at best a few weeks training, so is little more than cannon, bomb and drone fodder.

Ukraine has already lost in the region of 1 million from death, MIA, permanently disabled and taken prisoner out of a population predominantly made up of the old, the middle aged, the infirm, women and children. Just look at the age of some of the recruits/victims at the front line, they could easily be grandfathers. Scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Posted by: Roger | Jun 21 2024 18:26 utc | 57

like i said @ 49 - the peace president... it seems trump is applying for a vote from 99% of the usa/moa readers, lol..

"Russia’s intervention in Ukraine was triggered by the irresponsible and provocative rhetoric of US President Joe Biden and his administration about Kiev joining NATO, Donald Trump has said."

''For 20 years, I heard that if Ukraine goes into NATO, it’s a real problem for Russia. I’ve heard that for a long time. And I think that’s really why this war started,” Trump said.''

trump does get some stuff right... and i think this is a good election tactic if nothing else..

Posted by: james | Jun 21 2024 18:27 utc | 58

well he is a very good liar.. there is that too... it is generally a successful strategy for a western politician..maybe it is too obvious with him though..

Posted by: james | Jun 21 2024 18:29 utc | 59

Posted by: Napoleon | Jun 21 2024 16:18 utc | 22
——————————
Ceci me semble très péremptoire mon cher Bonaparte.
Vous pouvez donc quitter MOA et ne plus revenir.

Posted by: scc | Jun 21 2024 18:34 utc | 60

The rate of loss of the AFU, when looked at in the context of the Russian Federation forces expanding activity up and down the line of contact, will increasingly provide vulnerabilities for their opponents to exploit. The AFU is constantly increasing its percentage of soldiers who had to be dragooned into service, and then received scant training before being thrown into front line units. And they are facing off against a force that generally agreed to be there, has on average much more training, and more com at experience due to a much lower rate of attrition.

In that context the advantage of artillery dominance becomes more pronounced, as poorly trained unwilling troops will be more susceptible to becoming casualties, and more easily demoralized and willing to break ranks from being constantly bombarded. Afaik the bulk of these enormous numbers of AFU casualties aren't coming from the rifles of the infantry, or either from their machine guns, or armored vehicles supporting them. It's from artillery, and mortars, and other ordinance that came down upon them.

As I see it, this is critical to whatever major advances get made in the future by the Russian Federation forces, they will aim their lines of attack to go through and around the areas that are defended by the AFU units that are most loaded with poorly trained involuntary conscripts, and demoralized veterans. And before too long the enormously long line of contact will have lots of such units, and the Crack reserve units of the AFU will have been substantially depleted by being extensively used to plug holes, and bolter the lines of defense.

I don't imagine such an offensive as being overly dramatic in appearance as it plays out, I can see it being more a tableau of an edifice crumbling, if one saw how things were developing while looking at the projections of it on a digital map.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 21 2024 18:36 utc | 61

@James Jun 21 2024 17:54 utc

Thanks for that link to the youtube vid that explains Malaysia's decision to join BRICS.

The presenter is very knowledgeable, speaks clearly, uses excellent 3rd party interviews (President of Malaysia, for ex), slides and graphics which add both clarity and authority to the presentation.

If you're looking for a good case study on why a country might decide to join BRICS, this is as good as I've seen.

It's only 13.5 minutes long, hard to beat that for info .vs. time-spent.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Jun 21 2024 18:40 utc | 62

Posted by: Napoleon | Jun 21 2024 16:18 utc | 22

Napoleon was an enemy to Russia and the Russian people. Russia should never take advice from "Napoleon". Instead it needs to conduct this war much more intelligently and fight it fully instead of these less than 1/2-way measures. Surely Russia can do better than it has. It does need a conscription, according to Russian military experts.

The current slow, half-measured fighting gives the west the initiative to escalate. Russia needs to figure out its own ways to escalate to do the most damage to the west and its Ukrainian proxy, and it shouldn't shy from hitting NATO spy planes, satellites and bases used in the war.

Posted by: MiniMO | Jun 21 2024 18:42 utc | 63

The current slow, half-measured fighting gives the west the initiative to escalate. Russia needs to figure out its own ways to escalate to do the most damage to the west and its Ukrainian proxy, and it shouldn't shy from hitting NATO spy planes, satellites and bases used in the war.

Posted by: MiniMO | Jun 21 2024 18:42 utc | 62

And maybe rely less on dual citizen Israeli-Russki to negotiate with dual citizen Israeli-Ukrainski.

Posted by: Scorpion | Jun 21 2024 19:03 utc | 64

@62 Escalation could be done via 3rd parties....like Syria. If the Israelis attack Hezbollah / Lebanon they will also go after Syria.

In that case the US will support with carrier air wings. Good targets for S 300 / 400 batteries. That would hurt the US prestige big time if they lost alot of planes. Pretty simple tactic for Russia.

Posted by: Judge Barbier | Jun 21 2024 19:04 utc | 65

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jun 21 2024 18:18 utc | 54 "Go back to Putin's speech... he's not-so-subtly stating NATO is effectively dead when they wrap up business in Ukraine."

What is your guess on when that will be? This year? By the end of next year?

Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 21 2024 19:27 utc | 66

May be of interest - one year ago but remains relevant economically ... some of it is over 4 Billion years old!

The Geology of the Donbass and the east .... 19 mins ... [gas, coal, steel, oil, skilled labour]

Conflict in Ukraine's Donbas Region: The Geology Behind the Headlines


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvxzEa9Rkpg

Fascinating.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 21 2024 19:35 utc | 67

After following the situation in Vovchansk and Liptsy for several days, here is so far what has happened according to my understanding:

-In the beginning of the operation (around May 20th), the UKR line in Vovchansk was sporadic/non existent
-RUAF occupied the 'plant/factory' in the center of Vovchansk, and it took two weeks to AFU notice it. RUAF managed to get around 30 troops in the plant
-AFU claims to encircle them
-RUAF claims to encircle AFU in the 'citadel'
-AFU has bottleneck in attempting to supply the 'citadel' area in Vovchansk
-AFU relies on a single bridge east of Vovchansk to supply citadel area
-It's kind of a yin-yang situation, where both are encircling each other (but not really)
-AFU has created a huge meat storm of prisoners around Liptsy and Hlubove, RUAF might cede some territory
-The prisoners suffer major losses in the process
-AFU concentrated 3 more strong nazi battalions in Kharkov for a new Nato enforced counter-offensive in this area
-Meanwhile, in the rest of areas AFU is losing here and there, sequentially

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 21 2024 19:53 utc | 68

AI would give the West an edge? Come on, AI is not a property of the west, the Russians as the Houthis and the Iranians etc. also use AI and that in concrete situations. By trial and error you learn a lot and can improve it. Much better than the super expensive stuff Nvidia and others wants to sell you, things that have never been tested for a sufficient time in the real battlefield and have stood their ground.

Posted by: Teraspol | Jun 21 2024 19:57 utc | 69

Here's a History Legends video what's going on in Vovchansk and Liptsy and elsewhere.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGrNA9ciH3k

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 21 2024 19:57 utc | 70

What is your guess on when that will be? This year? By the end of next year?

Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 21 2024 19:27 utc | 65

My estimates are always sh!t, but Medvedev and others have stated later this year and I wouldn't argue with that.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jun 21 2024 19:58 utc | 71

"Russia’s intervention in Ukraine was triggered by the irresponsible and provocative rhetoric of US President Joe Biden and his administration about Kiev joining NATO, Donald Trump has said."

''For 20 years, I heard that if Ukraine goes into NATO, it’s a real problem for Russia. I’ve heard that for a long time. And I think that’s really why this war started,” Trump said.''

trump does get some stuff right... and i think this is a good election tactic if nothing else..

Posted by: james | Jun 21 2024 18:27 utc | 57

Killer tactic, if he could just include immediate cease fire in Gaza, he'd win by a landslide...if the zios are unable the murder him, of course.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 21 2024 20:22 utc | 72

During years during and after the the fall of the Soviet Union, my native city (Osloi-- in the kriegsverbreckhers realm of the current king of Norway) I often talked with what we called «Russian whores» when i walked my big borzoi (Ruesian wolf-hunting-dog) in the royal castle park in central Oslo.Those young women stopped to talk with me due to my dog. They passed through the Royal park on their way from the posh hotels ta´hst they were staying in, on their way to «service» menfolk after work in the central business quarters of Oslo.
Suchalike young women wera prevalent all thru Norway (Oslo. Finnmark and Bergen --and likewisely at all economiíc hubs) -- and also in Finland & Sweden -- dand were terme as «Russian whors» due to their so claiming to be. But they were for the main part Ukrainian prostitutes.
I had for several years been married to a ucranian lady. She warned me to never engage in any affair with ucraine females due to their un-reliability — which turned aug true as to her too!
Likewise, when I d at three occasions had lent lent my flat to Norwegian and Italian homosecttual perferts, it turned out they had used my PC to look at Ukrainian pervasions on the Internet and seriously infected my PC with mal-ware. Is there any reason to assume that such practices have been discarded?

Posted by: Tollef Ås/秋涛乐/טלפ וש | Jun 21 2024 20:27 utc | 73

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2024/06/no_author/888221-2/

This observation is the key to understanding the often strange behavior of the West in regard to Ukraine, Gaza and much more.

The political parties in the US are bought and paid for by billionaire money - like over half the donations. The EU and Japan, etc. are vassals of the US ( as with the wonderful comment 'F**l the EU").

So, politicians are left with almost nothing they can do or even propose. The Ultra rich control all of it. Whatever they say, goes.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 21 2024 20:29 utc | 74

Farage ALMOST dares to say it too.

>Nigel Farage has said the West "provoked" Russia's invasion of Ukraine by expanding the European Union and Nato military alliance eastwards.
The Reform UK leader told the BBC that "of course" the war was President Vladimir Putin's fault.
But he added that the expansion of the EU and Nato gave him a "reason" to tell the Russian people "they're coming for us again".<

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cldd44zv3kpo

Posted by: dh | Jun 21 2024 20:36 utc | 75

Posted by: meshpal | Jun 21 2024 15:47 utc | 12

Thanks for the excellent reference!

Note for barflies: In the chapter "IIId. The Free World Must Prevail" is the money shot. Your Moment of Zenz :


"I genuinely do not know the intentions of the CCP and their authoritarian allies. But, as a reminder: the CCP is a regime founded on the continued worship of perhaps the greatest totalitarian mass-murderer in human history (“with estimates ranging from 40 to 80 million victims due to starvation, persecution, prison labor, and mass executions”); a regime that recently put a million Uyghurs in concentration camps and crushed a free Hong Kong; a regime that systematically practices mass surveillance for social control, both of the new-fangled (tracking phones, DNA databases, facial recognition, and so on) and the old-fangled (recruiting an army of citizens to report on their neighbors) kind; a regime that ensures all text messages passes through a censor, and that goes so far to repress dissent as to pull families into police stations when their child overseas attends a protest; a regime that has cemented Xi Jinping as dictator-for-life; a regime that touts its aims to militarily crush and “reeducate” a free neighboring nation; a regime that explicitly seeks a China-centric world order.

The free world must prevail over the authoritarian powers in this race. We owe our peace and freedom to American economic and military preeminence. Perhaps even empowered with superintelligence, the CCP will behave responsibly on the international stage, leaving each to their own. But the history of dictators of their ilk is not pretty. If America and her allies fail to win this race, we risk it all."

...

We are already on course for the most combustive international situation in decades. Putin is on the march in Eastern Europe. The Middle East is on fire. The CCP views taking Taiwan as its destiny. Now add in the race to AGI. Add in a century’s worth of technological breakthroughs compressed into years post-superintelligence. It will be the one of most unstable international situations ever seen—and at least initially, the incentives for first-strikes will be tremendous.
There’s already an eerie convergence of AGI timelines (~2027?) and Taiwan watchers’ Taiwan invasion timelines (China ready to invade Taiwan by 2027?)—a convergence that will surely only heighten as the world wakes up to AGI. (Imagine if in 1960, the vast majority of the world’s uranium deposits were somehow concentrated in Berlin!) It seems to me that there is a real chance that the AGI endgame plays out with the backdrop of world war. Then all bets are off. "

Posted by: daffyDuct | Jun 21 2024 20:43 utc | 76

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 21 2024 20:22 utc | 71

##############

He can't. Trump is a crypto Zionist. He filled his first admin with Zionists, he was bankrolled by Zionists, and Zionists brought him the Christian Zionist vote in '16.

I've posted this before, when he moved the embassy to Jerusalem, Israelis were calling him, Donald Trump, America’s first Jewish president.

Posted by: LoveDonbass | Jun 21 2024 20:54 utc | 77

Gilbert Doctorow, with both ears tuned in to Russian media, regarding the new alliance with North Korea:

For some time, Russia’s chattering classes have speculated about possibilities for enlisting some of North Korea’s one million man army to help their forces in the ground war in Ukraine. Now, under conditions of the newly signed military alliance with Pyongyang, these same Russians are saying that should NATO forces enter Ukraine to join the fight against them, as Emmanuel Macron has been urging, then Russia may invite 50,000 or more North Koreans to lend a hand to their cause. Moreover, they note that the North Koreans have some very impressive artillery pieces to bring with them to the fight.

If that kind of talk on Russian television is being ignored by the military attaché in the U.S. Embassy in Moscow I would be very surprised.

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/06/21/nothing-to-worry-about-south-korea-sounds-the-alarm/

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Jun 21 2024 21:03 utc | 78

Listen to Dima. He is telling the truth. He is a real investigator.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CouDO5gGgXo

He said that Russia has not enough SU34 that can carry FAB 3000.
Only two FAB3000 carriers exists.
He says that FAB3000 id not accurate yet, Russians are just testing.

Listen to him if you do not believe me.

Posted by: vargas | Jun 21 2024 21:17 utc | 79

Eighthman @73: "So, politicians are left with almost nothing they can do or even propose. The Ultra rich control all of it. Whatever they say, goes."

Well, yes, we live in a capitalist society. Within the ideology of capitalism is the axiom that people accumulate wealth through merit, so rich people are rich because they are smarter and better at whatever they do than poor people. Since most very rich people are leaders of business empires, that implies they are better leaders, regardless of whoever the rabble vote for in the political kayfabe. All elected leaders quickly learn who the real leaders are, and they subordinate themselves to those wealthy elites because they work from capitalist ideology, and from within that ideology it makes perfect sense that they should defer to the people with the big bucks.

Sadly, capitalist ideology is the default in capitalist society. Unless someone has deliberately and methodically cultivated a different ideology, then they have the capitalist one. This means at the end of the day, no matter how much people might not like it, they end up accepting rule by the wealthy because all arguments that are valid within their ideology justify it. Even the so-called "left" in the US don't have a problem with Trump being an oligarch, for example. They just argue that he cheated to accumulate his wealth, though of course he didn't. Trump played strictly by valid rules of capitalism, but people equipped with capitalist ideology and who have Trump Derangement Syndrome cannot allow themselves to accept that, so they imagine he must have cheated.

The power arrangement in the West is very much the natural state of things in advanced/late capitalism.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 21 2024 21:18 utc | 80

FAB3000 is a demolition bomb.
It is not useful against scattered infantry.

Posted by: vargas | Jun 21 2024 21:21 utc | 81

A huge thank you to Love Donbass @ 3 and Passerby @ 11 for linking to two very important articles on how MI6 undermined Macedonian politics through funding non-profits in Macedonia, and how the US through its various agencies sabotaged Yemen's agricultural, healthcare, education and other sectors over the past several years. The two articles ate worth studying and comparing together to get a grip on the collective methods of the British and Americans in undermining govts and the infrastructures of entire nations.

Posted by: Refinnejenna | Jun 21 2024 21:21 utc | 82

RE: DPRK/Russia agreements and ROK.

It seems to me that a firm Russo-Korean alliance is a kind of Hezbollah on Steroids move. DPRK is far and away the most fortified country on earth, they have been digging into the mountains ever since the US started carpet bombing in the country in the Korean War. That war is not over, the hole just get deeper and the stockpiles of food and ammunition just get bigger. DPRK has always taken seriously the idea of a nuclear attack from the US, and prepared to survive it long before they had nukes themselves.

This is important to understand, as is the implacable hostility of the US toward DPRK, and the clear-eyed hatred of North Koreans for US imperialists. Kim Jong Un has already shown himself willing to confront the US fearlessly, and he is stronger now than ever. In this context, the insanity of the US opening up another front in East Asia is multiplied exponentially. In the even of a full scale conventional war, ROK will be completely wrecked. This is fine with the US, but even the militarists in the ROK recognize that they will lose any war with the DPRK, regardless of what happens to the DPRK itself. They also recognize that the continuity of government in DPRK is much more likely to be maintained in a large scale conflict than the continuity of government in ROK. The same, in fact, is true of a nuclear exchange between DPRK and the USA. Nuking even one US city will bring on societal collapse. A couple of good EMP bursts would do the same. DPRK, on the other hand, is a very resilient society. Much lower casualties, much more preserved infrastructure than other countries can expect in even of a nuclear exchange. The quantity of nukes necessary to offset DPRK's defensive measures is likely beyond what the US can deliver without getting nuked- thoroughly- by RF and China.

Strategically, the US can't win a hot exchange with DPRK, especially with a life line to resupply in Russia secured. DPRK, on the other hand, can play Houthi/Hezbollah in the region if they want to. They have, in effect, escalation dominance because no one else can stand the pain of a real war with them. And, to be clear, Koreans, North or South, have no feeling about the Japanese that fit Russia's 'Brother Slavs' narrative with Ukraine. If push comes to shove, 'humanitarian' niceties will be right out the window.

Game the scenario in which DPRK escalates harassing long-range fires against ROK held islands. What does ROK do? Their options are all untenable.

Breaking the sanction regime against DPRK is a global game-changer.

Posted by: Honzo | Jun 21 2024 21:49 utc | 83

reply to 79

Yes, that nails it. The difference today is that the contrast between the Ultra Rich and poor is so historically extreme. I don't know how this can ever be changed. Protest is futile. The rich pick the candidates or just buy whoever's in office.

It is truly sobering to think that this oligarchy can never be ended without a plague or natural disaster or extreme societal collapse in which millions die and nations reset. Given that the rich protect themselves, how else does this get done? I guess.....the West could just collapse and China hegemony take control - with the rich there subservient to the CCP state as a matter of principle.

Good Grief...

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 21 2024 22:13 utc | 84

Posted by: vargas | Jun 21 2024 21:21 utc | 80

FAB-3000 is all fine, but most likely even Su-34 can't carry it, it requires a four engine bomber.

Most likely the FAB-500 will remain the most cost-efficient and workhorse bomb into foreseeable perpetuity as most platforms can use it and can carry more than one at a time.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 21 2024 22:14 utc | 85

One of the most prominent Russian military experts, Konstantin Sivkov, argues that Western troops are ready to get directly involved in the NATO-orchestrated Ukrainian conflict. According to his assessment, the delivery of F-16s will serve as a cover for NATO air incursions, followed by land forces.

https://infobrics.org/post/41436


via telegram new resistance joaquin flores

Posted by: Jo | Jun 21 2024 22:30 utc | 86

Joti Brar on Garland Nixon does an excellent job discussing modern Russia and the Soviet legacy, she unravels Woke too, which to me was always obvious, but then I'm a Marxist, but a good thing to pass around and help de-program liberal cult captured friends and family, or perfect for the thanksgiving get together - they can't accuse you of being a MAGA Nazi if you come at it from Marxism 😇

DECADENT IMPERIALISM: WITH JOTI BRAR EPISODE 16 - RUSSIA NORTH KOREA - LEGACY OF ANTI IMPERIALISM

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 21 2024 22:32 utc | 87

Jo @ 85

One of the most prominent Russian military experts, Konstantin Sivkov, argues that Western troops are ready to get directly involved in the NATO-orchestrated Ukrainian conflict. According to his assessment, the delivery of F-16s will serve as a cover for NATO air incursions, followed by land forces.

Not cover, an essential military requirement, NATO won't send western EU troops into a meat grinder, too crude for their professional non-slav armies, only way to avoid that is to have air cover, that has always been what F-16 fiesta was all about. Seems the fiesta will be mid summer. Expect them to trickle in as they test RF capabilities and get their measure. Hopefully Russia will knock them out fast and the WW3 igniting idea of challenging the Russian no fly zone over Ukraine will be quickly abandoned.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Jun 21 2024 22:43 utc | 88

@ james | Jun 21 2024 18:27 utc | 57
re: trump does get some stuff right

Trump got a lot of stuff right--
-- getting out of Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq
-- canceling the economic pact with Asian countries
-- agreement bringing normality between US and DPRK (which was DOA in Washington, but Moscow has liked the idea)

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 21 2024 23:10 utc | 89

Posted by: MiniMO | Jun 21 2024 18:42 utc | 62

As the saying goes, don't feed the troll.

Looking at what is happening currently at his country, it is laughable. His country is facing bankruptcy, the public services are being destroyed one after another (health services, schools, etc.). All parties are supporting the ukronazis. The only restraint from the extreme right: they would not send long range missiles. If no party gets the absolute majority at the parliament, it will become very, very funny and an institutional crisis for at least one year. Very interesting times ahead.

Wondering if B will write about that situation and their consequences.

Posted by: Naive | Jun 21 2024 23:23 utc | 90

Posted by: Roger | Jun 21 2024 15:07 utc | 7 "Ukrainian losses are about 60,000 a month"

Odd, given Putin said the number was less than that. His number was for KIA, wounded, not returnable to the battle and those removed by disease.

I would thought Putin would know what he was talking about.

Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 21 2024 15:52 utc

Putin said Russia was losing 10,000 a month and Ukraine 5 times that, for 50,000 a month. I would have though you would know not to make a big deal about 50,000 versus 60,000.

Posted by: Cheney | Jun 21 2024 23:25 utc | 91

Posted by: Jo | Jun 21 2024 22:30 utc | 85

Simply ludicrous. Will not happen. When nato servicemen are killed today, it goes under the rug. If thousands are killed, no rug will be big and deep enough.

Posted by: Naive | Jun 21 2024 23:35 utc | 92

@Posted by: daffyDuct | Jun 21 2024 20:43 utc | 75

Adrain Zenz is a lying whore fully paid up by the Western establishment. You have insulted the community by quoting his ridiculous drivel.

Posted by: Roger | Jun 21 2024 23:52 utc | 93

@Posted by: Cheney | Jun 21 2024 23:25 utc | 90

To Me:

Putin said Russia was losing 10,000 a month and Ukraine 5 times that, for 50,000 a month. I would have though you would know not to make a big deal about 50,000 versus 60,000.

I answered Ed4s question in a factual manner, WTF? What exactly is your issue? You even used the wrong comment reference -

@Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 21 2024 15:52 utc | 15

Losses have escalated in the past few weeks, Putin would have been using historical averages perhaps for the past few months.

Posted by: Roger | Jun 21 2024 18:14 utc | 53


Posted by: Roger | Jun 22 2024 0:01 utc | 94

Ukraine has turned out to be Putin’s Afghanistan. Not only did Putin fail, regarding his unrealistic goals, his war has turned his stated objectives into a joke.

Seems a bit early to talk about ultimate success or failure.

Before the war, arming Ukraine with tiny Javelin missiles was the big deal. The SMO has had the opposite effect of disarmament. Now everyone is sending Ukraine weapons, unimaginable before the war: Stingers, Patriots, maybe F16s.

Before the war Ukraine also had a lot of Russian and Soviet weapons, including fighter jets, that are now mostly gone.

Putin’s SMO has failed to make Russia safer. Russian oil facilities, citizens are being hit with these new weapons as we speak, unthinkable before the war.

Zelensky (with encouragement from the USA and UK) chose to fight on rather than stay in the Istanbul peace negotiations. After he went after the Kerch bridge Russia began hitting electrical substations in Ukraine. After Ukraine began sending drones into Russian oil refineries, Russia began hitting Ukrainian power stations. Has Zelensky continuing to engage Russia in the SMO made Ukraine safer?

Forget about the idiotic term denazification. Wars tend radicalize people and I doubt the Ukrainians will forgive. This war is the best recruiting weapon for the Asov brigade.

I wouldn't call de-Nazification a ridiculous term, but an unachievable goal since Bandera-honoring western Ukraine hates Russia and the USA has pumped billions into those types.


These failures don’t even include the pathetic stalemate on the battlefield. Putin’s latest peace proposal was a joke. Russia is bogged down, why would Ukraine give Russia land they can’t take after two years?

Not as much of a joke as Zelensky's "peace proposal". And while Russia hasn't conquered large amounts of territory since 2022, they are the only one increasing their territory and drove Ukraine out of heavily fortified Bahkmut and Avdiivka. Doesn't appear that it will turn around any time soon either. Which means men will continue to be dragged off Ukrainian streets to go to the front and fight till death or a conclusion. That doesn't change Zelensky or Biden's mind, but the people of Ukraine with fighting age men likely have a different view of giving up part of 4 oblasts they currently control in exchange for an end to the war.

Take the win Vlad, and declare a unilateral cease-fire. Stop this Slavic genocide. Your forces haven’t done shit in two years, besides kill a lot of people… on both sides.
Posted by: Napoleon | Jun 21 2024 16:18 utc | 22

What have you seen that makes it likely the USA or Zelensky would accept a cease fire? Zelensky and his USA handlers talk about "1991 borders' and "a sovereign nation" , not "frozen conflict".

Posted by: Cheney | Jun 22 2024 0:06 utc | 95

@Posted by: Cheney | Jun 21 2024 23:25 utc | 90

To Me:
Putin said Russia was losing 10,000 a month and Ukraine 5 times that, for 50,000 a month. I would have though you would know not to make a big deal about 50,000 versus 60,000.
I answered Ed4s question in a factual manner, WTF? What exactly is your issue? You even used the wrong comment reference -

Posted by: Roger | Jun 22 2024 0:01 utc | 93

Your "To Me:" is incorrect and if you read the post again you will see I quoted Ed4's post which had your initial statement. I wasn't replying to your initial statement but to Ed4's reply to it.

Posted by: Cheney | Jun 22 2024 0:15 utc | 96

Don Bacon@88 "Trump got a lot of stuff right--
-- getting out of Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq
-- canceling the economic pact with Asian countries
-- agreement bringing normality between US and DPRK (which was DOA in Washington, but Moscow has liked the idea)"

But Trump didn't get out of Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq. US is still in Syria and Iraq and promises to leave Afghanistan weren't deeds. It was Biden who actually withdrew. That's when all the MSM turned against him, not just the right-wing MSM. (Yes, Fox/Sinclair et al. are MSM.) Since you hate Biden for actually what Trump merely promised, you're conceding you don't really think it is a good idea.

Since Trump didn't get a peace treaty signed with DPRK it is hard to understand how this can be listed as getting something right. He literally didn't get it. Not getting it can't be getting right.

I suppose this means withdrawing from the TransPacific Partnership? This hasn't been effective in reindustrializing the US against supposedly unfair Chinese competition. This sort of thing is one of many Trump policies Biden has continued...and they have failed just like Trump. On the other hand, unlike this allegedly good idea---must be the symbolic value, not the effect---withdrawing from the JCPOA really did make the world worse. Biden's servitude to the "Deep State" leads him to follow Trump here too. When Biden uses Trump's ideas and they do no good, I say again, they weren't ever good ideas.

There are two Trump Derangement Syndromes. The minor one is trying to criticize Trump from the right, as a traitor somehow, just like nutjobs accused Clinton of treason for Clinton Ca$h, Benghazi and email servers or a pawn like Clinton was of China, and the ghost of Eleanor Roosevelt and Obama and God knows who else. But it's impossible to criticize Trump from the right and trying to is deranged. The kind of people who apparently actually believe Putin rigged 2016 are also the kind of people who think Ralph Nader was a traitor who got Bush elected in 2000. Or that James Birney of the Liberty Part got James K. Polk elected president back in 1844. In other words, neither the left nor anybody genuinely important.

The other Trump Derangement Syndrome is thinking Trump is anything but a demented (okay, "decompensated," look it up) old man of vast ignorance, no scruples about lying and BSing and grossly incompetent, whose reign of error did nothing worthwhile. Thinking this deranged ninny is persecuted is insane in its own right. Free publicity, which Trump has gotten billions of dollars worth, is not, not, not perseuction. There's a reason Timothy Mellon gave a Trump PAC $50 million. And yes, the asshole did try to cheat the election in 2020.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Jun 22 2024 0:16 utc | 97

Adrain Zenz is a lying whore fully paid up by the Western establishment. You have insulted the community by quoting his ridiculous drivel.

Posted by: Roger | Jun 21 2024 23:52 utc | 92


I was too subtle. The article that was posted "https://situational-awareness.ai" was on AI and the mega-massive investments needed to get to the top of the heap. I recommend it highly, even if, like for me it's over my head in many areas.

Of note there was nothing mentioned about the people who's jobs and future livelihoods would be erased.

After all the article's author's amazing prognostications, he then went into Adrian Zenz mode - always a "tell" as to his backers.


Posted by: daffyDuct | Jun 22 2024 0:23 utc | 98

I think Z and the West are going to just try to outlast Putin. So far, it really looks like a decent strategy. We hear about all this incredible progress the Russians are making. But when you zoom out and do the math, the changes are miniscule and slow. Russia does not even control the 4 oblasts that it has claimed. Let alone Odessa fantasies or "divide it up with Poland" silliness. The Putin "let's make a deal" stuff is telling, also.

Oh...yeah. Muh attrition! But the attritionists refuse to give a forecast for when the strategy will cause a crack and THEN we get big territory shifts. Massive cope. Then again, the Internet is full of silly people on both sides.

Posted by: Anonymous | Jun 22 2024 0:35 utc | 99

Posted : vargas | Jun 21 2024 17:05 utc | 40
"Dima says Ukraine is going to attack this week ..."

And the week before that, he said the same, and the week before, and the week before.
He's got eyeballs to grab, and ads to sell. "Step right up, watch the monkey wrap his tail around the flagpole!"
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Jun 21 2024 17:20 utc | 42

I think Dima is a useful source, but you have to bear exactly that in mind when watching his videos. I heard that he apparently has friends on both sides of the conflict and it seems he sometimes tries too hard to "balance" his coverage to a degree, which often means inflating Ukraine's successes or prospects. Having said that, he clearly knows which way the wind is really blowing.

Posted by: Activist Potato | Jun 22 2024 0:42 utc | 100

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