Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 28, 2024
Russian Note To The U.S.: Your Drones Are Now Targets

A new statement by the Russian Defense Ministry says:

The Russian Defence Ministry noted the increased intensity of U.S. strategic unmanned aerial vehicles over the Black Sea waters, which are conducting reconnaissance and targeting high-precision weapons supplied to the Armed Forces of Ukraine by Western states to launch strikes at Russian facilities.

This demonstrates the increasing involvement of the United States and NATO countries in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of the Kiev regime.

Such flights increase the possibility of air incidents involving the Russian Aerospace Forces' aircraft, increasing the risk of a direct confrontation between the alliance and the Russian Federation.

The NATO countries will be responsible for this.

The Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation Andrei Belousov has instructed the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces to make proposals on measures for rapid response to provocations.

NATO reconnaissance and radio relay drones were regularly patrolling over the Black Sea before and during recent 'Ukrainian' attacks with long reaching, western delivered weapons on Crimea. This was also case during the recent release of cluster ammunition over a popular beach near Sevastopol which has caused several civilian death and wounded some 100+ people.

While the drones are nominally flying in neural airspace they are obviously used for attacks on Russia assets in Crimea. That makes them, arguably, legitimate targets for Russian air defenses. Russia had so far held back at destroying them. This will now change.

NATO or the U.S. may well regard such attacks on their 'neutral' forces as hostile. Some will press for retribution. But I am convinced that mere attacks on drones will not be seen as sufficient reason to launch World War III.

Comments

What kind of targeting information is needed that can’t be provided by the many satelites over Crimea?
Posted by: John Dowser | Jun 28 2024 15:21 utc | 40

Satellites do not collect terrestrial signals intelligence. Nor do they perform terrestrial signals countermeasures.
Radiated power is inversely proportional to the square of the distance from a source. Doubling distance quarters power.
Furthermore an airborne radar can emit tens or hundreds of continuous kilowatts. The E-3 Sentry generates over a megawatt of power for its onboard electrical systems. Satellites only have a fraction of that power available.

Posted by: too scents | Jun 28 2024 19:10 utc | 101

In Nazi Germany, they used parts of the Autobahn. So, there’s highways to think about.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 28 2024 18:47 utc | 96

F-16’s require PRISTINE runways. They have that huge hoover air intake on them that’ll suck up any FOD. Even simply refueling & arming in Ukraine will be near impossible for most NATO aircraft whereas MIG-29’s were made for rough conditions.

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jun 28 2024 19:11 utc | 102

Silly people. There’s a made-in-Ukraine solution to the debris-scooper on the F16. Just turn them around 180 degrees and fly them in reverse.

Posted by: kupkee | Jun 28 2024 19:25 utc | 103

US planning or what passes for strategy in the US now revolves around the upcomming elections.Serbian president is saying the EU will launch direct conflict with Russia in several months (which I assume is what the Americans want).
I guess much depends on what Russian intel is seeing and Russia’s moves/counter moves. I assume Putin makes a lot of decisions based on information not available to the public.
Ukraine ambassador recently kicked out of Czech for helping organise the hit on the Slovakia PM. Nato/EU entities appear close to disintegration. The fascist Italian PM cranky because they do not get a say in who heads the EU…

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 28 2024 19:27 utc | 104

When Russia decided on the SloMO strategy Russia probably made provision for a certain number of military and civilian casualties as well, as you can’t engage in armed conflict without suffering casualties. Russia is also well aware that the forever moral and ethical West would throw lots of provocations involving civilian deaths Russia’s way. So Russia should just continue with the SloMO and tell her people no more going to the beaches on the Black Sea. But the Russian civilians will still go to the beach anyway.

Posted by: gT | Jun 28 2024 19:30 utc | 105

Didn’t the US blow to smitherens a chinese weather balloon? A chinese embassy? An iranian passenger plane?
Sure they can’t have a problem with Russia “accidentally” shooting down some toy on the other side of the globe from Washington?

Posted by: Marvin | Jun 28 2024 19:31 utc | 106

@100 RK
Exactly, it’s for domestic consumption and Putin will do nothing (again) but he never bluffs :/
This ‘drone’ garbage is kabuki, the same as the nonsense about there being ‘no communication between Moscow and Washington’. In what idiotic reality do you allow unmanned US drones to target your civilians and then worry about ‘escalating’ by shooting these drones down. That whole narrative doesn’t make any sense whatsoever, Russia can just play the Israeli game, ‘Russia has the right to defend itself’ and it would actually be true in Russia’s case, because they would actually be using it as a justification for protecting their country, as opposed to attacking others.
I do understand Putin’s position, he’s worked hard to get Russia to a good place and he is trying desperately to avoid WW3, but his lack of action will only lead to more provocations and there will come a point when the public will get fed up with the complacency.

Posted by: Bob Hopkins | Jun 28 2024 20:02 utc | 107

Posted by: Taras 77 | Jun 28 2024 18:51 utc | 98
—————————————————————-
The problem isn’t the “leftist POS,” it is the rightwing POS commentors who wouldn’t know their left from their right and can’t see past their nose.

Posted by: Ed | Jun 28 2024 20:14 utc | 108

While not allowing for them to be cartoonish villains, I think it reasonable to wonder if the American DOD is nauseous over the idea of having to go to the war room now that the public knows the commander in chief is senile. Too many questions to answer now, and then later to Congress, especially if Trump became President. Who exactly would be in charge at such a meeting, and how could authority derive from civilian leadership when the top leader was out of it?
Should a response to a Russian action be discussed, would Biden be competent to eventually order it?*
If the Republicans in the House had any gumption they’d publicly remind the Pentagon that only they can declare war. But instead they make political hay out of a senile President scaring an electorate afraid he’d make the world start resembling the one from the Fallout series.
* I would however lol if any reporter instigated a callback to when General Milley spoke of having a back channel to China, implying he wouldn’t let then President Trump trigger a war.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 28 2024 20:19 utc | 109

To every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.
This has been coming for a while now in the Black Sea … all the way back to Palmerstone in the 19thC.
Let the game begin.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 28 2024 20:19 utc | 110

Satellites do not collect terrestrial signals intelligence. …
Posted by: too scents | Jun 28 2024 19:10 utc | 101

It’s worth knowing that passive collection is a factor. I’m sure I read an article that voiced Russian concerns that Starlink satellites might be performing an undisclosed radio-intelligence gathering function.
https://medium.com/@HarelDan/x-marks-the-spot-579cdb1f534b

X Marks The Spot: Identifying MIM-104 Patriot Batteries From Sentinel-1 SAR Multi-temporal Imagery ….

https://theconversation.com/we-tracked-secret-russian-missile-launchers-in-ukraine-using-public-satellite-data-230424

… We used Sentinel-1 to locate active and mobile Russian S-300 surface-to-air missile systems in Eastern Ukraine – and if we can find them, so can anyone else. …

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 28 2024 20:27 utc | 111

Peter AU1 | Jun 28 2024 19:27 utc | 104-
G’day Peter. Putin isn’t giving anything away. Ryabkov’s interview with Izvestia yesterday was one big dance with many steps. I combined it with the slim reporting done on “Medvedev at the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum & Ryabkov’s Interview by Izvestia”: Mostly a reiteration of already spoken warnings all made for the Global Majority audience. I suspect Russia will launch combat air patrols whenever a NATO air asset enters the Black Sea region. I wonder if Russia’s 400 km range AA missiles trigger radar lock warnings in NATO’s manned aircraft that would likely be tasked to accompany the intel assets? That could also be done with S-300, 400 & 500 AD systems based in Crimea. IMO, every NATO air asset needs to be painted as soon as it’s over water.
Otherwise, Putin’s busy running Russia, which is a very big job–bigger than anything Biden, Trump or any other Duopoly puke can handle.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 28 2024 20:29 utc | 112

Bob Hopkins | Jun 28 2024 20:02 utc | 107
Take a good look at Russia domestic economy and its military, then do the same for the so called west. The Russian side has gone from strength to strength in both regards due to the SMO while at the same time the western side has shown its weaknesses and splits are appearing. Russian people in general are now far more primed for war whereas in the beginning, many had their doubts about the SMO.
Western collapse over a period of years is far preferable to nuclear war which is what it will be if there is direct conflict rather than proxy war.
With its domestic economy and military going from strength to strength, Russia is in no danger of collapse or defeat in continuing the way it has been for as long as possible. The longer it is before direct conflict, the stronger Russia will be and the weaker the ‘west’ will be.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 28 2024 20:29 utc | 113

karlof1 | Jun 28 2024 20:29 utc | 112
Thanks Karl. It is easy to see why Putin has a massive approval rating in Russia. Much western propaganda implies Putin spends his time pouring over battle maps, but any reading of his itinerary shows his time is mostly taken up with domestic matters and interactions with the global south.
One comment I read on twitter was according to flight tracking, after the hit on the Crimean beach, US/Nato sent manned aircraft on recon over the black sea instead of drones, which seems likely. Haven’t seen much more on that though.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 28 2024 20:40 utc | 114

Posted by: TJandTheBear | Jun 28 2024 19:11 utc | 102
NATO have increased the frequency of dispersed road exercises, for their air fleets, and the Taiwanese F-16’s have proved capable of landing on such surfaces. It’s very dangerous to assume that your opponent is not capable of rectifying or modifying existing platforms to suit new circumstances.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Jun 28 2024 20:19 utc | 109
I think the middle echelons are just biding their time, whilst their upper echelons flap around ineffectively, lining their own pockets, which seems the SOP for DEI hires.

Posted by: Milites | Jun 28 2024 20:51 utc | 115

@anon2020 | Jun 28 2024 20:27 utc | 111
FYI re radar.
World’s Largest Microwave Industry Exhibition – IEEE Microwave Symposium, Washington 2024 ==> https://youtu.be/P_2a7Q0dAKI

Posted by: too scents | Jun 28 2024 20:58 utc | 116

Ed | Jun 28 2024 20:14 utc | 108
Left and right – divide and conquer. In this case the brainwashed peasants that believe the left and right crap.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 28 2024 20:59 utc | 117

Best thing could happen to Biden, family and friends would be a war with Russia.
Who would be woried with Biden senility?
Maybe elections could be postponed like Zelensky as done

Posted by: CConde | Jun 28 2024 21:29 utc | 118

Only gotten to your comment so far; thank you for the abstract and link to that paper, downloaded!

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jun 28 2024 21:36 utc | 119

Oops that was for Lavrov’s Dog ( Jun 28 2024 12:43 utc | 7 ) 🙂

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jun 28 2024 21:36 utc | 120

I thank you for bringing up this ISR point B. because it is a major, persistent problem.
Drones were flying over Kharkov just two days before SMO began. NATO fled right away after SMO went hot. Even yet, nothing has officially flown over Ukraine from the NATO side inside Ukraine.
Russia is aware that the UK blew “Moskva,” which was a potent deterrent for NATO’s ISR there. After this “success,” the Black Sea Fleet partially withdrew. or found a shelter within the Turkish Navy. 5 Russian modern navy warships continue to patrol the Turk Stream, which is located just 150 miles southeast of Odessa, nearer the Turkish shore, and also where a secure civilian air transit is present.
I do not know if NATO’s Link-16, a satellite feed that is also relaying data to ground stations, is jammed or decrypted on the fly, but to me, it seems that a struggle has been going on for a long time already and is under radar. Surely Russian patrol planes do EW on drones, also pushing typhoons and whatnot away if they think that crucial data or a live feed is being used to target a critical structure.I cannot prove it, but I think Russian EW and decrypt have been pretty strong and advanced since day one of SMO. After 2 years of tapping, jamming, and deciphering, I expect some knowledge have been gathered there.
Legally, Russia has issued a NOTAM 70 miles from its international waters.So with the 12 miles of international waters, there are 89 miles. That is not enough. So the Black Sea is controlled by Russians and Turks and Erdo has been utilizing the situation with both sides ever since. He needs more planes at his airports and in the airspace, as for every service there is a charge. But since Erdo is coming to see Putin soon, I think Russia will, after that, push a no-fly zone away to the west and a civilian corridor further south, giving Erdo some earnings for his troubled economy. And ISR will have troubles there.
Maybe worth mentioning is that both are signatories to a pact since 2008 that Russia has a right and a duty to help Turkey close the Black Sea to a hostile power.

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 28 2024 21:39 utc | 121

Maybe elections could be postponed like Zelensky as done
Posted by: CConde | Jun 28 2024 21:29 utc | 118
_____
..,and would be equally unconstitutional, although I’m not sure that matters.

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 28 2024 21:40 utc | 122

22.06.1941. Russia was attacked without any proclamation of war.
There is a big chance they are going to fall in the same trap.

Posted by: vargas | Jun 28 2024 21:51 utc | 123

Thanks AI and others for addressing F16 placement. Having read up on this more it seems that what is said by west is that F16s in use would be based in Ukraine, and others just stored abroad.
Those in Ukraine are said to be destined for dispersed sites, with propaganda saying this is how left over of previous fleet has survived.
I haven’t followed what Ukrainian aircraft are still in use, how often and to what ends. So I don’t know depth of Russian defensive capabilities. My impression though is that aircraft use by Ukraine is limited and also that any first flight of an F16 might lead to knowing its base and then destruction of the aircraft.
As Russia itself did say use of foreign airbases to launch attack would make those bases targets, that maybe leaves a dangerous circumstance of aircraft being launched from outside Ukraine for strikes not being able to be proven to have been (because Russian intelligence showing this will be dismissed by the west) , so providing the possibility of Russian retaliation looking like an unprovoked attack.
As actual placement won’t be revealed I suppose we will be left guessing, but that obviously makes statements by officials or press on the reality, or the intent , very sensitive.

Posted by: Ornot | Jun 28 2024 22:08 utc | 124

reply to 102 and others
I respect your replies but think they have some explanatory ‘holes’. War creates desperate measures by its nature. Like using female soldiers. Or giving T-34 men big regular vodka rations. Or building ME-262 fighters in tunnels by concentration camp prisoners, with regular executions of starving slackers. Or dropping Soviet soldiers from low flying aircraft into heavy snow because parachutes weren’t available. Or US airmen not being told the stats that they would almost certainly die.
So, could they shut off a highway or commercial landing strip and sweep/vacuum it before and after each use? Or modify F-16’s to be more like MIG 29’s ?
We’ve come a long way in this conflict, leaving the ‘impossible !’ or ‘unlikely !’ behind, time and again. Very, very little is unthinkable. Maybe nothing.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 28 2024 22:11 utc | 125

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 28 2024 21:39 utc | 121 “Legally, Russia has issued a NOTAM 70 miles from its international waters.So with the 12 miles of international waters, there are 89 miles.”
Legally these NOTANs have no force.
The Russians would have to “enforce” it.
NATO doesn’t need Turkey’s permission to fly over the Black Sea. Other NATO allies border the Black Sea and they give overflight permission. So I am not sure what the point of bringing Turkey up here is. Unless you are assuming that once Russian starts downing the Global Hawks, NATO would move them to Turkish Airspace?
I would not be surprised if the US is flying RQ-170 and follow on RQ-180 drones over Ukraine. Given all the EW going on there, they might be able to slip one in from time to time and not get it noticed amongst all the ‘noise’.
I see that Ukraine has started to use those sea drones of theirs to drop mines off the Russian harbours. The mines lay on the bottom and wait for a passing ship.
https://malaysia.news.yahoo.com/russian-ships-being-taken-mines-145631145.html
Th

Posted by: Ed2 | Jun 28 2024 22:27 utc | 126

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 28 2024 22:11 utc | 125
F-16’s from various countries have operated from highway strips in Finland, Sweden and Poland.
Given where the air intake is that airplane, they do need to operate in a pretty clean environment.

Posted by: Ed2 | Jun 28 2024 22:31 utc | 127

What US is very good at is goading other to attack so they can escalate with a pretext.
Posted by: w | Jun 28 2024 12:38 utc | 5
This is an atavism from the days in which it actually mattered in DC what other people, foreign or domestic, thought. And keep in mind, even then, going back to Maine and beyond, the US has always been ready to simply invent a pretext. Gulf of Tonkin Incident, anyone? It never happened. Yellow cake? There wasn’t any. Post 911, I’d just as soon they skipped the pretexts altogether, they might drop a nuke on Austin Texas and say Russia did it. Two birds with one stone. I’d definitely keep an eye out for any sudden changes in real estate valuation and insurance rates if I lived in a red state.

Posted by: Honzo | Jun 28 2024 22:32 utc | 128

I wonder what effect off-loading a bunch of chaff in the course of an AWACS or Global Hawk would have. Aside from getting a face full of glitter at several hundred mph, it might be very bad for the sensing and communications gears. Or the engines, for that matter.

Posted by: Honzo | Jun 28 2024 22:52 utc | 129

Peter AU1 | Jun 28 2024 20:40 utc | 114–
Thanks for your reply. Putin was busy with governance management today as I report, “Another Putin Good Governance Project: Meeting with Graduates of the Talent Pool Development Program of the Graduate School of Public Administration of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration”, that’s part of Team Putin’s state building process. The following is from his preoration:

At the same time, there is something that unites all of you. These are leadership qualities, the talent of a leader, a leader, the desire for further professional growth, and, of course, a sincere desire to serve Russia, serve people, and devote all your life to this.
Such service involves a huge responsibility, so the requirements for you, for your colleagues, and trust, and expectations are the highest. The country really counts on you, on the utmost concentration and discipline to achieve the overall result.
I have already said that today everyone in their own place, no matter what field they work in – whether it is the civil service, economic activity, or the information field – should work with maximum intensity and efficiency, understand what time we live in, what historical stage we are going through. [My Emphasis]

Those are words the West doesn’t want anyone to read and they aren’t about war but governance. IMO, we need to recognize that Russia has not only beaten NATO, it’s also generating a far better quality of life for its people despite all Western efforts to keep that from occurring.
Putin also met with the Security Council to “consider the issue of further steps taken by the Russian Federation with regard to a unilateral moratorium on the deployment of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles ground-based.

As you know, several years ago, the United States withdrew from this Treaty under a far-fetched pretext and announced that it would produce such missile systems.
In 2019, we announced that we will not produce them, these missiles, and we will not deploy them until the United States deploys these systems in some region of the world.
Today it is known that The United States not only produces these missile systems, but has already brought them to Europe for exercises, to Denmark. Most recently, it was announced that they are in the Philippines. It is not known whether they took these missiles out of there or not.
In any case, we need to respond to this and make decisions on what we should do in this area next. Apparently, we need to start production of these strike systems and then, based on the actual situation, deciding where – if necessary to keep us safe – to place them.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 28 2024 22:52 utc | 130

Dear Russia; metallic paint warheads!
Non-lethal but ruins the AWACS dishes etc.
Paint bomb away!
Or if the paint just doesn’t stick well enough at airplane speeds then metallic glue-bombs 🙂 And if any engines flame out or whatever then they’ll just have to land, no big deal.
Shirley, this would work? 😛

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jun 28 2024 23:19 utc | 131

Apparently, we need to start production of these strike systems and then, based on the actual situation, deciding where – if necessary to keep us safe – to place them.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 28 2024 22:52 utc | 130
——————————————————-
Maybe Western Media will not pick up on it since they are busy with the US election.
DoD will notice and DoS will also. Whether anyone will react is another question. Someone should ask Trump . . . .

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Jun 28 2024 23:22 utc | 132

There has been discussion about very high power Russian electronic weapons, like beyond just jamming. Powerful enough to fry electronics at great distance. It might be time to try them out over the Black Sea.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 28 2024 23:24 utc | 133

My guess for a Biden replacement: Some Democratic governor who is not nationally known. Someone bland and not controversial.

Posted by: Larry G | Jun 28 2024 23:28 utc | 134

Eightman:

“Or modify F-16’s to be more like MIG 29’s ?”

Ah! I am reminded of an old comment (at least I think I posted something like it) concerning this where I humorously suggest they could make a split air intake “Schnabel”/trunk for the F-16’s that curve forwards and up around the cockpit and nose so that they wouldn’t vacuum up all the crud from the ground. These would be ditched by some clever mechanism after take-off.
It might actually work but then their (the F-16’s) problem is that they’re in the air and on the receiving end of anti-aircraft missiles 😛
It would look very silly of course so the pilots would protest and stop it before it ever got into use lol.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jun 28 2024 23:38 utc | 135

What a lame answer to Anglo bullies!that is why Russia is not respected now. Cc oward Putin.

Posted by: Sam | Jun 28 2024 23:58 utc | 136

No fly zone
In 1982 britain arbitrarily imposed 200 miles security no ship no plane zone around British ships. ( It is another matter that in her interest, Soviet union should have sunk the British fleet and brits could have done nothing. In fact after Malvinas war, British resurrected their evil ways of sabotaging other nations including Russia.) In 1990 same england imposed sanitary zone around British ships in the Persian gulf with no authority to do that but did that anyway to see how much pirate English can get away with.
Russia in the middle of hostilities against nato, has not imposed no fly or no shipping zone even after 18 months in black sea.
That shows how stupid is Russian leadership and is insult to the average Russian’s honour.

Posted by: Sam | Jun 29 2024 0:04 utc | 137

Aaah yes, concern trolls out again. Putin is a very legalistic and careful man, who knows that he is winning (destroying the Ukrainian army at 60,000+ a month) and that time is on his side (the European, US and Japanese economies are heading for a very major financial crisis probably late this year or next year, and Israel is slowly melting down). So he puts up with the odd pin prick and continues on. Now after two years he will look calm and responsible, forced to respond to a US terror attack by taking out the US drones. The Chinese and Iranians do the same.

Posted by: Roger | Jun 29 2024 0:54 utc | 138

My guess for a Biden replacement: Some Democratic governor who is not nationally known. Someone bland and not controversial.
Posted by: Larry G | Jun 28 2024 23:28 utc | 134
______
Jared Polis: “Mee! meeeee! I’m even a gay Jew” — although among Coloradans the utterly colorless Hickenlooper would demand pride of place…

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 29 2024 1:27 utc | 139

The cowards are those using a pseudonym to insult Putin and the Russians.
They are becoming more numerous in time of defeat.

Posted by: Naive | Jun 29 2024 1:29 utc | 140

NATO will not go for WW3. If NATO confronts Russia directly it will go nuclear and the only winner will be China. USA avoids that possibility at all costs.
Russia should build over 30,000 tactical nuclear weapons and aim them at European NATO members, Japan and South Korea. Keep all strategic nuclear warheads to deter the US.

Posted by: Jason | Jun 29 2024 2:15 utc | 141

#71 “Look at what happened Down Under in Australia where a mass-shooting event allowed their totally controlled regime to impose mass gun control upon their SUBJECTS…as without a Bill of Rights, those poor subjects of the Crown are currently defenseless.”
Try doing some basic research before pounding uselessly on a keyboard.

Posted by: yarpos | Jun 29 2024 2:37 utc | 142

Posted by: yarpos | Jun 29 2024 2:37 utc | 142
Not entirely correct. They banned all semi-auto’s and pump action shotguns but not pump action rifles, go figure. We still have lever actions, bolt actions, break actions, rolling blocks etc.
We are not defenseless due to lack of firearms, we are defenseless because our law forbids us to defend ourselves lest we end up in more trouble than the crims.
We are expected to allow ourselves to be victims, oh how I wish I was born in a different country.

Posted by: Bearish Panda | Jun 29 2024 3:13 utc | 143

5 June – President VV Putin warns of a symmetric response.
26 June – Ansarullah targets MSC Sarah V with a hypersonic missile.
26 June – US MQ-1C shot down by Syrian AD. De confliction protocol in Syria may cease to exist soon.
US illegal occupation at Al Tanf is increasingly looking like a juicy target ripe for Syrian cluster munitions.

Posted by: Suresh | Jun 29 2024 3:25 utc | 144

“Fort Sumnter
The Maine
Lusitania
Pearl Harbor
Sept. 11 2001and
Others?”
Posted by: JaimeInTexas | Jun 28 2024 16:56 utc | 66

Yup. If one studies American wars, there is usually some provocation that is concocted, allowed, or covertly fomented in order to whip war hysteria that “OMG! America Was Attacked!” among the US sheeple.
One could also add to the list of provocations the Gulf of Tonkin incident for the Vietnam War; the Racak “Massacre” for the 1999 war against Serbia; “Muammar Ghadaffi’s troops taking Viagra as a rape drug” for the 2011 attack on Libya; “Syria used chemical weapons in Douma” for the near war against Syria in 2018; and of course lies about “Yellowcake” uranium and other Weapons of Mass Destruction for the 2003 American-led aggression against Iraq, etc.
This pattern of war provocations/deceptions works like a charm every time.
You would think that the American sheeple would be war skeptical after so many damn examples.
But many of them react like Pavlov’s dog whenever you wave a bloody shirt in front of them.

Posted by: ak74 | Jun 29 2024 3:45 utc | 145

It might be time to try them out over the Black Sea.
Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 28 2024 23:24 utc | 133

Why do you suppose the Moskova was sunk, and that there have been attack against Russia’s big over the horizon radar sets?

Posted by: too scents | Jun 29 2024 4:48 utc | 146

ZH has a posting up with the title
Why Won’t The US Help Negotiate A Peaceful End To The War In Ukraine?
It is by Jeffrey Sachs via AntiWar.com and smells of “foaming the runway’ sort of propaganda positions.
But hey, it represents some movement towards negotiation.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 29 2024 4:59 utc | 147

I do not belive Russia would ever dare to touch a NATO plane or drone but we shall see..
Posted by: vargas | Jun 28 2024 13:24 utc | 13

You may be right… if NATO can prove that damage to their equipment is a result of hostile action.
Both sides of the conflict have effectively Publicly stalled the development of Physics since 1945, at least as far as is taught in colleges. National Security and all that.
Much of the length of this conflict is due to the US hoping to study what tricks Russia has up its sleeve. Imagine the disappointment 2 years ago when it became clear that Russia’s preferred strategy was WWI artillery bombardment and trench-warfare.
Recent Drone developments, however, have forced both sides to adapt and improvise.
Both sides have been and continue to keep back “secret weapons”. What the exact nature of these weapons “based on new physical principles” is/are remains to be seen. Neither side wants to reveal their cards.
We can but speculate at this point.
* Lasers to melt enemy equipment (AWACS, satellites, ISR)?
* Micro-wave beams to fry air-crews?
* Reactionless drives (aka, UFOs/UAPs)?
* micro-scaled tactical nukes?
* completely autonomous AI hunter-killer drones?
We really don’t know what’s possible, but certain people on both sides do know more than they are letting on. We are not yet to the point where up-sleeve-Aces need to start appearing on the table, for either side.
Between 1840-1940, Physics was dropping new “bombshell” discoveries every couple of years. Then 1945 and … crickets.

Posted by: retroflecks | Jun 29 2024 5:23 utc | 148

Then 1945 and … crickets.
Posted by: retroflecks | Jun 29 2024 5:23 utc | 148

You couldn’t be more wrong.
1962 ==> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josephson_effect
1986 ==> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconductivity
1986 ==> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_circuit

Posted by: too scents | Jun 29 2024 5:45 utc | 149

How could I forget?
1960 ==> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser

Posted by: too scents | Jun 29 2024 5:52 utc | 150

Re F16’s rampaging out of Romania- worth reading Will Schryver about the prospects of That being anything else but another fustercluck….

Posted by: Waymad | Jun 29 2024 5:59 utc | 151

Why is nobody mentioning the elephant in the room – China? There’s no way that China would stand by and allow Russia to be overwhelmed by the Christian Colonial West’s loud-mouthed wusses and pussies.
China hasn’t forgotten the Century Of Humiliation perpetrated by the pseudo Christians and still teaches it in schools. So if Russia needs some help, China will be ready, willing and able to contribute whatever is needed to show the world that the jewed-up Christian Colonial West are Yesterday’s Heroes.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jun 29 2024 6:23 utc | 152

Russia should build over 30,000 tactical nuclear weapons and aim them at European NATO members, Japan and South Korea. Keep all strategic nuclear warheads to deter the US.
Posted by: Jason | Jun 29 2024 2:15 utc | 141
That’s a little extreme. Currently Russia has close to ten times more tactical nukes than the US does, while France and the UK have none. So, just pointing the ones they have at Europe should suffice (if they aren’t already).

Posted by: James M. | Jun 29 2024 6:24 utc | 153

Posted by: too scents | Jun 29 2024 5:45 utc | 149
Posted by: too scents | Jun 29 2024 5:52 utc | 150
plot on a timeline significant advances & discoveries from 1840 to 2024. plot mean-time-to-physics-breaking-new-discovery. Compare the the period 1870-1914 against the last 50 years. Not discussing incremental improvements or number of papers published. Talking about the rate at which New Physics is/was being discovered AND released to the general public’s awareness.

Posted by: retroflecks | Jun 29 2024 6:42 utc | 154

@too scents
Not to mention that 3 out of the 4 examples you listed are effectively Engineering Advances based on existing Physics, not new Physics.

Posted by: retroflecks | Jun 29 2024 6:48 utc | 155

This is a losing proposition for Russia, perhaps that’s why they were reticent to do it until now.
It’s rather easy to replace the targeting and recon pods from the drones to a manned platform like the F-16. What then? Same problem, but no solution without triggering WW3.

Posted by: Dingleberry | Jun 29 2024 6:51 utc | 156

the general public’s awareness.
Posted by: retroflecks | Jun 29 2024 6:42 utc | 154

Macro quantum effects are generally beyond human perception, so the public thinks they’re magic.

Posted by: too scents | Jun 29 2024 6:55 utc | 157

“Russia had so far held back at destroying them. This will now change.” No it won’t.

Posted by: Lyle A | Jun 29 2024 6:58 utc | 158

Five people killed in Ukrainian drone strike on Russian region – governor
Two small children are among the victims of the attack on Kursk Region, Aleksey Smirnov has said
What’s Russia gunna do?
Nuffin’
Two days after speaking with Austin SoD, within less than a day just mentioning they need to ‘investigate’ the unmanned drones EW situation in the Black Sea, the US switches to fully manned AWACS.
Watcha gunna do Russia?
Nuffin’

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 29 2024 7:06 utc | 159

The Russian regions of Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk, all of which border Ukraine, have been the targets of Ukrainian missile, mortar and drone attacks almost on a daily basis since the outbreak of the conflict between Moscow and Kiev in February 2022. The strikes have targeted energy infrastructure and residential areas, resulting in civilian deaths and injuries, as well as the destruction of property.

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 29 2024 7:09 utc | 160

shared by another here is William Schryver
F16s based in Romania ….

Oh, yeah. And I almost forgot: anyone (including the perpetually catastrophist Russian murmurers) who believes for a moment that Russia will not act to obliterate a NATO base in Romania under such circumstances … well, that’s just silly talk.
Of course they will. They’ll hit it hard. Really hard — with a strike package that exceeds anything ever thrown at a Ukrainian target over the course of this war.
It could well become the most intensely pressure-packed moment in modern times — a situation exceptionally fraught with the possibility of catastrophic miscalculation.
Every time I stop to think about these things, I just shake my head at the obvious stupidity of it all.
If the Imperial Masters of War actually attempt such an air campaign against Russia, not only will the entire operation almost certainly end up being a logistical debacle of truly epic proportions, but the combat results will be shockingly one-sided — disastrous to the point the US will very likely feel compelled to cease operations after just a few days, and try to spin it into some sort of “bold statement” that “achieved its purposes”.
But it will be ugly. Exceedingly ugly. And everybody that is anybody of consequence in power structures around the world will know the score and understand exactly what it means.

https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/the-last-wunderwaffe
So someone is strong on Russia going very hard indeed … and soon.

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 29 2024 8:11 utc | 161

“Fort Sumnter
The Maine
Lusitania
Pearl Harbor
Sept. 11 2001and
Others?”
Posted by: JaimeInTexas | Jun 28 2024 16:56 utc | 66
The US Liberty bombing
King David Hotel bombing
The Lavron Affair
Operation Northwoods — (rejected by JFK)
September 11

Posted by: Willow | Jun 29 2024 8:24 utc | 162

… I do not know if NATO’s Link-16, a satellite feed that is also relaying data to ground stations, is jammed or decrypted on the fly, but to me, it seems that a struggle has been going on for a long time already and is under radar. Surely Russian patrol planes do EW on drones, also pushing typhoons and whatnot away if they think that crucial data or a live feed is being used to target a critical structure.I cannot prove it, but I think Russian EW and decrypt have been pretty strong and advanced since day one of SMO. After 2 years of tapping, jamming, and deciphering, I expect some knowledge have been gathered there.

Posted by: whirlX | Jun 28 2024 21:39 utc | 121

On interception of a drone satellite uplink, the drone’s antenna will be directed upwards and be relatively low power, interception from the closest RF ground location might not be technically feasible (I doubt it is). I haven’t seen any mention of airborne ISR patrols by RF that might be capable of flying close enough to do this, which I believe is explained by my next point:
On decryption, don’t place any hopes in this. Modern encryption, properly implemented, cannot be broken quickly enough to be relevant, if at all. These days encryption fails due to other weaknesses in the system, which requires access and laboratory time to scan for and find what weaknesses there might be … I doubt this has been successfully performed or, if it has, that the capability would be used (and revealed) in anything other than true wartime conditions.
Jamming from the ground seems the only real option, as there appear to be no airborne solutions. It might be possible to overload radio / radar gear on the drones with ground based EW and perhaps also degrade optical systems with dazzling lasers. These options would be preferable in terms of gradual rather than abrupt escalation.
https://t.me/fighter_bomber/17176

The most common question in recent days:
“Ivan Ivanovich! Why can’t our plane fly next to such a reconnaissance aircraft and stupidly jam it with jammers?”
I answer:
There are many reasons, but the main one is that there are no such aircraft with jammers on the planet.
Electronic warfare aircraft (or anti-aircraft jammers), of which we have somewhere around zero, are tailored for other tasks. Therefore, all these texts about flying over “Kuki” with “Khibiny” are purely for the delight of housewives.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 29 2024 8:29 utc | 163

2 and a half years later…
For what? Russia creates its own imaginary escalatory responses while NATO continues unpunished and undeterred. All this caution leads to is more dangerous thinking that Russia is afraid and weak or doesn’t care about its own deaths. That is what waiting 2 years has done.

Posted by: Rubiconned | Jun 29 2024 8:49 utc | 164

Posted by: pyrrhus | Jun 28 2024 13:45 utc | 20

I don’t understand why these drones have not been shot down already…

These drones have not been shot down regularly yet because they are outside the current theater of war, which is Ukraine and Russia.
Any attack outside of Ukraine or Russia is a new step in the escalation ladder.
Russia is telling she will move up the escalation ladder by attacking those NATO assets in international airspace.
Next step in the escalation ladder is to attack NATO assets not in international airspace or waters, but on other nations. Moldova is the best candidate because it is not in NATO. Then attacking NATO assets is yet further step in escalation.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | Jun 29 2024 8:50 utc | 165

Russia is not retaliating because it has almost no options to retaliate.
Any action from Russia would become an excuse for frontal attack. NATO can easilly kaunch 1000 tomahawks on Russia.
Besides, the people in Kremlin are scared.

Posted by: vargas | Jun 29 2024 9:03 utc | 166

As I see it, it’s simple. If the “U.S.” (the narrow circle controlling them) absolutely wants WWIII, WWIII will come. In any other case, it won’t.
They can step up and prolong their provocations till Russia is forced to answer in some way that they can, in turn, construe as something forcing them to launch WWIII. Nothing can prevent them from doing that if that is what they will to do.
In any other case, there will be no world war. But in that case, there will be.

Posted by: Imhc | Jun 29 2024 9:15 utc | 167

Russia should have done this months ago, instead, they wait until innocent civilians lose their lives before doing the obvious.
Putin and Co have to put this war to bed now, escalation is a by word for this fact. What are nato going to do about drones being shot from the sky?, answer, who cares and probably nothing because they won’t risk their own lives and they have limited capabilities and morale.
Andrei the great strategist calls me a fan boy, whatever that means, for making this point, he believes Russia will instead send missiles to Venezuela and other corners of the globe instead of protecting the borders of Russia, delusional thinking or what from the man who wrote books, big deal Andrei, if my country was at war with the country I was living in, I’d be straight home. Cowards everywhere online these days.

Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Jun 29 2024 9:21 utc | 168

NATO can easily launch 1000 tomahawks on Russia.
Posted by: vargas | Jun 29 2024 9:03 utc | 166
Your Evidence is …. what?
What are they going to strike? And where will they be fired from?
Range 1,000 miles (1,609km)
Feb 2024
The United States is estimated to have an inventory of about 4,000 Tomahawk missiles (as of 2022), and at current production levels, the Marines, Navy, Army and foreign partners are buying Tomahawks as quickly as they are produced.
Japan in January inked a deal for 400 Tomahawks. That was preceded by Australia’s purchase of more than 200 in August 2023.
https://centcomcitadel.com/en_GB/articles/ssc/features/2024/02/19/feature-02
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/why-is-the-u-s-navy-running-out-of-tomahawk-cruise-missiles/

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 29 2024 9:51 utc | 169

” Russia, not only will the entire operation almost certainly end up being a logistical debacle of truly epic proportions, but the combat results will be shockingly one-sided — disastrous to the point the US will very likely feel compelled to cease operations after just a few days”
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 29 2024 8:11 utc | 161
That guy has no logic at all. He says Russia will hit the f16 nato base in Romania so hard, like never before, then a few words later his brain errors and talks about “a few days” of nato strikes in Russia. Even so, the damage will be inside Russia so US, from another continent, will eat popcorn and party, then do it again. It’s not even their planes and their pilots. The winning time for Russia expired when they accepted the coup in Ukr, then it was only a matter of time before they become a new type of Syria, which they are now. And Bibiden is on his way to redraw the entire region of the original Syria too.

Posted by: rk | Jun 29 2024 9:57 utc | 170

@ LightYearsFromHome | Jun 29 2024 8:39 utc | 28
>> Oh, and Zelensky is talking “serious” peace proposal in the works, that too is fraud to help the Democrats in the election.
Until they actually order real de escalation, should we believe anything he or his backers say?
What are the odds this is pretense before further escalation?

Posted by: despondent | Jun 29 2024 10:10 utc | 171

rk | Jun 29 2024 9:57 utc | 170
yes, the gulf between the extremes are, extreme alright. and sometimes from the same source.
I think the “what shoulda happened” after the coup will be long debated. At the time I wondered why putin bothered with Minsk 2 …. or not long after it when nothing happened, except a somewhat general ceasefire eventually.
Russia couldn’t work out all of the other 3 parties were lying? Shit it was clear as day from the get go. So why would Russia, under such terms, continue to build NSII, or supply gas to and through Ukraine or to Germany? Instead they say do nothing and keep calling them their “partners” while the US and Nato armed and trained the largest Army in Europe on Russia’s borders for 6 years … much has never added up properly. Waiting until Feb 24 2022 is duplicitous bullshit too imho. Waiting until Dec 2021 to dump a new Security Agreement on Ukr US and Nato is equally duplicitous bullshit for public consumption.
I suspect it never will. But today is now, so … it’s a new day. And we are left to wonder why and will be fed bullshit all over again and again. I try not to believe or swallow any of it but remain skeptical of all these lying lazy dishonest manipulative (cruel?) assholes.
There is no shame in not knowing the truth when everyone is Lying to you 24/7 for years.
They don;t get out bed one day and suddenly stop lying to you either. None of them do that. So why believe a word anyone of them from any side have to say? You’d be fucking mad to do that!

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | Jun 29 2024 10:22 utc | 172

And Bibiden is on his way to redraw the entire region of the original Syria too.
Posted by: rk | Jun 29 2024 9:57 utc | 170
He can barely draw inside the lines of a coloring book for 2yo

Posted by: Newbie | Jun 29 2024 10:32 utc | 173

Dima:
-AFU rotation losses in and out of Volchansk are high from bombardment, up to 40%
-RU controls the immediate area north of the Volchansk aggregate plant
-The Volchansk citadel controlled by AFU is surrounded from north, west and south as a result of RUAF taking some small territory north of aggregate plant
-RUAF improved positions east of Nevelske (Zherebets river)
-RU bomb AFU in the forest near Seversky-Donets river, maybe they have made some gain here
-RU bomb Seversk rail station
-AFU still controls west part of east Chasov Yar, RUAF trying to move past it from the north cross. It is probable RUAF controls large part of the forest north of Zhovtnevyi/Chasov Yar
-RUAF not storming the micro kanal district in east Chasov Yar
-RUAF made large gain in eastern part of Toretsk, capturing the terracon/coal mine stronghold
-RUAF reached citadel in Pivnichne, progress made without supporting progress from south or north, indicating weak AFU defense
-RUAF consolidate area west of Novoaleksandrivka
-RUAF could take over rest of Sokil soon
-RUAF make gains toward Novoselivka-Persha
-RUAF continues slicing up Krasnogorivka into parts, making gain from NE and S, slow movement to avoid potential ambushes in high rise areas
-RUAF improve position west of Heorhiivka, in the village of Maksymialinivka
-RUAF shortening line north of Novomikhaloivka by pushing AFU out of the fields
-Lot of vehicle and other reinforcements sent to the direction of Zaporozhye
-RUAF discovered and destroyed AFU S-300 system in Odessa region

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 29 2024 11:26 utc | 174

Posted by: Sam | Jun 29 2024 0:04 utc | 137
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Russia prefers to play by the agreed and recognized international community rules of war. The brutish [like the Zionists and the gringos] instead prefer piracy and theft [… and genocide] in violation to all recognized International and Humanitarian Laws.

Posted by: AI | Jun 29 2024 11:47 utc | 175

Posted by: Roger | Jun 29 2024 0:54 utc | 138
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Surpreme Commander in Chief of the Russian Federation, President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is the only adult in the room. The collective waste only produces clowns.

Posted by: AI | Jun 29 2024 11:57 utc | 176

Lavrov’s Dog @161: “So someone is strong on Russia going very hard indeed … and soon.”
Putin: “…the streets of Leningrad taught me one thing: If a fight’s inevitable, you must strike first.”
vargas @166: “the people in Kremlin are scared.”
Only fools and insane religious fanatics feel no apprehension when facing armageddon. The leadership of the West feel no apprehension because they are ignorant fools. To reestablish proper fear of the end of the world, the Russians must cure that ignorance.
When (it is not “if”, and everyone knows it) Russia has to strike outside of the Ukraine, they would be wise to make it the most brutal and devastating strike of the century. It should be the most awe-inspiring and unambiguously overwhelming act of absolute overkill. It should be entirely disproportionate to the Empire’s most recent salami-slice past a Russian red line. It should be the whole salami of slices up to now X 10. The response should be so horrific as to forever remove any doubt that the Russians are serious about what they say.
An example would be instead of hitting their targeted NATO airbase with the minimal tactical nuke necessary to collapse the aircraft shelters and shake up the bunkers (anyone who thinks even a hundred kinzhals is enough to take out a major NATO airbase is engaging in magical thinking and doesn’t understand the scale of energy required to do the job), the Russians should hit their target with a strategic nuclear device… a very big one. It should be big enough to completely erase the base without a trace and leave a ineradicable scar in the heart of Europe that endures forever. A permanent monument to stupidity that cannot be disassembled and will stand to shame fools for eternity.
A fitting centerpiece for “The Garden”, I would say.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 29 2024 12:05 utc | 177

11.00 PM
You, a good chess player sit at a poker table with a mediocre checkers player and some others, playing poker.
The mediocre checkers player is a brash nincompoop, but a sly one. He has, not so subtly, shown he has a loaded weapon.
The nincompoop tries to play a cat and mouse game with you, thinking he is the cat.
He also has a hard dead line coming up at midnight he can’t ignore completely.
His play style seems irrational and illogical but there is something there. You can’t afford many mistakes and you don’t have many guesses.
From the cards on the table and in your hand you know you have a good chance at winning, better than even but the nincompoop doesn’t seem to understand that or ignores it. But why, what is he up too?
It is 11.00 PM and you must last to just before midnight. You dare not try to go beyond midnight because some very bad things might happen but you also can’t let the nincompoop upset things long before that.
So how do you make the nincompoop walk away, preferably happy and none the wiser, from the table before midnight, without drawing his weapon and kill you all OR take the pot on the table?
It is 11.01 PM
The nincompoop just crazily raised with 500, do you go with his madness or do you raise 5.
5 or 500 and you must last to just before midnight. 5 will irritate him and he will say words and likely do things. 500 each and every time might not be affordable for you but is for him as he doesn’t care about uncovered checks.
Or do you have something up your sleeve?
It is 11.02 PM
Tick tock tick tock

Posted by: NaomiClareNL | Jun 29 2024 12:06 utc | 178

And Bibiden is on his way to redraw the entire region of the original Syria too.
Posted by: rk | Jun 29 2024 9:57 utc | 170
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The League of Arab States (LAS) no longer views the Shiite party Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, the Al-Akhbar daily reported citing remarks of LAS Assistant Secretary General Hossam Zaki at a meeting in Beirut with Mohammad Raad, leader of the Loyalty to the Resistance parliamentary faction.

Posted by: AI | Jun 29 2024 12:09 utc | 179

The winning time for Russia expired when they accepted the coup in Ukr, then it was only a matter of time before they become a new type of Syria, which they are now. And Bibiden is on his way to redraw the entire region of the original Syria too.
Posted by: rk | Jun 29 2024 9:57 utc | 170
I disagree. Russia didn’t begin to build an army capable of fighting outside their border until late 2022. They’ve built an army of 700K to date … by contrast it took an army of 700K to take Kiev in ’43 so I suspect the Russians will keep building until either Ukraine capitulates of they have to take kiev.
A large Russian delegation went to China to finish deals on the eve of the SMO. Little was released on what they had agreed to but news was released that one of the deals was with Huawei to “Modernize, network and automate” Russian manufacturing. Given the timing and who was included on this visit I would venture a guess that the manufacturing they spoke was of a military nature.
From my experience it takes about 2 years to go from putting a spade in the ground to products rolling off the line … Chinese probably do it faster. The problem is there is no way of knowing for sure what’s going on deep inside Eurasia, nor whether the people on the ground are Russian or Chinese … satellites can only tell you so much.
So consider that the Russians haven’t really used the army they built and the means to supply it is just coming on line I’d say the Russians haven’t really begun to fight yet and frankly I think they’re hoping this all gets resolved before they have to..

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 29 2024 12:29 utc | 180

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 29 2024 12:29 utc | 180 “.. by contrast it took an army of 700K to take Kiev in ’43”
I don’t see the relevance of that statement. How many personnel did the German army have in that theater? How many did Ukraine have under arms on February 22, 2022?

Posted by: Ed4 | Jun 29 2024 12:42 utc | 181

NaomiClareNL @178
Shoot the nincompoop first.
No warning. No threats. Just do what needs to be done.
The alternatives are to hand over all you have to the nincompoop, or wait until just before midnight when the nincompoop will will kill you and take all you have. If the nincompoop does not have everything by midnight, then he will use his gun. If you don’t want to fight him and you don’t want him to use his gun, then your only choice is to give him all that he wants.
To apply this metaphor to reality, the Empire of Delusions is the guy with the gun, and Russia is the one opposite the poker table from him. If Russia doesn’t want to do what is necessary, then the only choice for Russia is a return to the early 1990s. Roll over and let the empire take whatever it wants. Why not? Maybe there will be something left when the Empire has its fill… though you know that’s wishful thinking.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 29 2024 12:44 utc | 182

@ William Gruff | Jun 29 2024 12:05 utc | 177
Does that go far enough ? What about 10 years later, when Skynet and PNAC-suggested “genotype-specific” bioweapons “become a politically viable tool” ?
How does one destroy a tree of evil if not at the roots?

Posted by: despondent | Jun 29 2024 12:45 utc | 183

Posted by: HB_Norica | Jun 29 2024 12:29 utc | 180
My guess is RU won’t move far beyond Donbass and Kharkov/Sumy border areas, which are holding and resource sucking areas for AFU/Nato. SE/S areas, west of Maryinka, Novomikhalovka seem to be very weak for AFU, which in turn will weaken their prospect of renewed attack from Zaporozhye south. They have opportunity cost to either reinforce this sector or launch another attack on Rabotyne. The SE corner seems to be low priority. Toretsk is weak. Seversk seems to be making progress, albeit it will take many more months.
A few F-16 is a piss in the wind in context of these things and will probably be ineffective. IF they remove the targeting guidance possibilities of Nato on Crimea (from the Black Sea) then the F-16 will be even more useless.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 29 2024 12:46 utc | 184

despondent @183: “Does that go far enough?”
No, it doesn’t go far enough. What I described is just the minimum necessary to stop the escalation for now.”
The Empire of Delusions will resume escalation again at some point, even with an enormous crater where Ramstein or Brussels used to be. The Empire has no choice. The Empire must escalate or it will die. In fact, the Empire is dying anyway, but it sees “decolonizing” Russia, to use the current favorite euphemism, as the key to buying a couple more years.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 29 2024 12:58 utc | 185

working?

Posted by: librul | Jun 29 2024 13:05 utc | 186

Signals Intell works in both directions:
The RF is surely sucking up all the signals etc. from the NATO AWACs and drone aircraft. Some very bright minds in the RF have likely already broken all the relevant NATO codes.

Posted by: Exile | Jun 29 2024 13:26 utc | 187

unimperator@184….if an F16 pisses a nuke, best not to be downwind.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 29 2024 13:26 utc | 188

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jun 29 2024 13:26 utc | 188
If an f16 pissis a nuke there is no place in the world to stay, independently of the wind direction.

Posted by: Mario | Jun 29 2024 13:34 utc | 189

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 29 2024 12:05 utc | 177
You are right, but Putin still hopes that his ex partners would start to love him again. The whole Russian elite dreams to be accepted in the club again. They have sacrificed so many Russians because of this.

Posted by: vargas | Jun 29 2024 13:57 utc | 190

“An example would be instead of hitting their targeted NATO airbase with the minimal tactical nuke necessary to collapse the aircraft shelters and shake up the bunkers (anyone who thinks even a hundred kinzhals is enough to take out a major NATO airbase is engaging in magical thinking and doesn’t understand the scale of energy required to do the job), the Russians should hit their target with a strategic nuclear device… a very big one. It should be big enough to completely erase the base without a trace and leave a ineradicable scar in the heart of Europe that endures forever. A permanent monument to stupidity that cannot be disassembled and will stand to shame fools for eternity.
A fitting centerpiece for “The Garden”, I would say.”
Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 29 2024 12:05 utc | 177
Encouraging ‘nuclear warfare’ only illustrates the paucity ,as well as , the immorality of your intellect.

Posted by: canuck | Jun 29 2024 14:35 utc | 191

Defeating the Outlaw US Empire
Many here dream about and talk about smacking down the Evil Hegemon with methods like first strikes, or proxy warefare attrition of US/NATO stocks, BRICS strategies, and other EXTERNAL means. But my reading of history shows that, many times, empires fall from their own INTERNAL FLAWS.
Nobody “beat” the Roman Empire. Nobody “beat” the British Empire.
Nobody “beat” the USSR.
They atrophied and collapsed. They all disempowered themselves through the cancers of innate systemic weaknesses, internal divisions, etc.
Likewise, I just can’t see Russia (and friends) ever “beating” the US at its supremist military and economic games. A few tactical nukes in Europe is sure to bring more retaliatory destruction to more innocents than successful empire capitulation and collapse. I prophesise that the US’s demise will come about from the internal corruption of its own being.
I believe that Putin and Xi see it this way, and are thus playing it the slow, non-escalatory way, just waiting and watching and surreptitiously tweaking the global conditions to strangle the US like a python — while its own politics and societal self-destruction cause its eventual downfall. Homelessness, debt, drugs, immigration, crime, political division, Union unrest, corporate corruption, are more potent weapons than any homeland or overseas missiles that Russia could ever shoot at it. And of course, as it happens that way, external states can’t be blamed!
So, unfortunately, the root cause of the global shitfight will not be coming about “by the end of this year”, or “in 2025”. So called “peace in Ukraine” will only be a temporary respite from the real, much longer war which needs to be won without the aggro of so many agitated warmongers here in MoA.

Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Jun 29 2024 14:46 utc | 192

The problem will start when the US raise the stakes and send manned reconnaissance aircraft

Posted by: Ali | Jun 29 2024 14:48 utc | 193

So, unfortunately, the root cause of the global shitfight will not be coming about “by the end of this year”, or “in 2025”.
Posted by: Jake Blanchard | Jun 29 2024 14:46 utc | 192

I expect the turning point will be presaged by a spike in assassinations committed within the Elite Classes.
Soonish.
https://www.google.com/search?q=billionaire+assassinations

Posted by: too scents | Jun 29 2024 14:59 utc | 194

Russians do have something up their sleeve for disabling drones according to some:

An excellent option for intercepting drones in the skies over the Black Sea would be the A-60 aircraft with the Sokol-Echelon laser system. The main advantage here would be the possibility of a safe attack – without the risk of a possible miss of a long-range missile, especially if it was launched over the Black Sea in a western or southern direction.
But there has been no news on this system for a long time.

Posted by: Boo | Jun 29 2024 15:07 utc | 195

Nobody “beat” the Roman Empire. Nobody “beat” the British Empire.
Nobody “beat” the USSR.
They atrophied and collapsed. They all disempowered themselves through the cancers of innate systemic weaknesses, internal divisions, etc.
Empires fall for different reasons. The Roman Empire lost its culture and values at the hands of Christian fundamentalists not unlike today’s Taliban, the British Empire collapsed because it could not victoriously complete its two declarations of war against the German Empire on its own, and the USSR collapsed, because no one believed in her anymore – and people only realized what they had in her when she was gone.

Posted by: Oliver Krug | Jun 29 2024 15:13 utc | 196

https://t.me/intelslava/62394

🇷🇺❗️A quadcopter attacked a residential building in the village of Gorodishche, Rylsky district, said Acting Governor of the Kursk Region Alexey Smirnov.
Five people died, including two small children. Two more family members are in serious condition.

https://t.me/intelslava/62402

🇺🇦 Hunting for enemy FPVs (shotgun).

https://t.me/intelslava/62404

🇷🇺🇺🇦 The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ air defense system in Volchansk could not withstand a FAB-3000 strike
Russian aviation is actively working at temporary deployment points of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkov direction. And three-ton aerial bombs perform quite well.

Posted by: anon2020 | Jun 29 2024 15:16 utc | 197

Ever since NK started sending older shells to RF, well a guy can mull over things for a few seconds, hmm, and what about sending troops?
Well if they ever do, demining troop might be the best option. Keep them further back, send women deminers along with the men. And if israel is using Thais to pick their produce, well a couple thousand North Koreans to do some short term stays in rebuilding schools, houses, etc.

Posted by: paxmark1 | Jun 29 2024 15:24 utc | 198

A simple plan:
Russia quietly anounces some tecnical test of its Posiden.
Russia claims it has gone off course and they have lost it.
Invent some anti-USA acronym group in the Middle East to make the clain that they ‘recovered’ and hacked it.
Warn the USA that this has happened. Be very sorry and ask for assistance recovering it. Let the MSM make it a big “Russia is incompetent” moment for herd to ingest.
Sail that thing to the mouth of the Potomac and let her rip.
Offer condolences, apologies and co-operation to find “those responsible”.
It might work. Americans leaders are stupid.

Posted by: saner | Jun 29 2024 15:50 utc | 199

Empires fall for different reasons but, in the end there is always some kind of external challenge and various internal reasons.
Roman empire did not fall because of fondamentalist Christians, it was from the fragmentation due to absorbing, more or less integrating, various different tribes from all around the borders of empire.
Falling of empire always take quite some time as it always take time to became an empire and, sometimes empire can survive, albeit modified for a long time, the oriental Roman empire is an example of that.
The eventual end of Ukraine war, eventually, will be an episode of the fall of the empire.
If the empire fall the Ukraine war will end but the war could end and the empire keep going.

Posted by: Mario | Jun 29 2024 15:53 utc | 200