In today's Daily Report the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed Ukrainian reports that it had launched an attack from Russia into the Kharkiv area in north-east Ukraine:
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As a result of offensive operations, units of the Sever Group of Forces have liberated Borisovka, Ogurtsovo, Pletenevka, Pylnaya, and Strelechya (Kharkov region).
Russian troops have defeated manpower and hardware of 23rd and 43rd mechanised brigades, 120th and 125th brigades of the AFU and the 15th State Border Covering Force close to Volchansk, Vesyoloye, Glubokoye, Neskuchnoye, and Krasnoye (Kharkov region).
The enemy losses were up to 170 troops, three armoured fighting vehicles, and four motor vehicles.
If the numbers in the Daily Report are somewhat correct the Ukrainian losses yesterday included 1620 dead and/or severely wounded, 21 tracked fighting vehicles and tanks, 30 trucks, 47(!) artillery pieces of various types, 4 expensive air defense systems and 6 field ammunition depots. 35 Ukrainian soldiers were taken prisoner.
These losses are about double the usual count.
The opening of a new front towards the Kharkiv region might have one or more of three purposes.
- To surround and eventually take Kharkiv city, the second biggest one in Ukraine.
- To create a buffer zone along the border to prevent Ukrainian attacks on Russian grounds.
- To divert Ukrainian reserves and to prevent them from joining the intensifying fight in the Donbas region.
To 1: Kharkiv has more than a million inhabitants. To surround and eventually take it would require a force of more than 100,000 soldiers. There are no observations or reports about Russian forces of that size anywhere near the larger area.
To 2: There is a lot speaking for this intent. On March 18, following several attacks by Ukraine towards Belgorod, President Putin had announced that a buffer zone would eventually be needed:
“We will be forced at some point, when we consider it necessary, to create a certain ‘sanitary zone’ on the territories controlled by the (Ukrainian government),” Putin said late Sunday.
This “security zone,” Putin said, “would be quite difficult to penetrate using the foreign-made strike assets at the enemy’s disposal.”
To 3: Diverting enemy forces from the main axis is always a benefit when intense fighting is going on. In this the operation towards Kharkiv has already been successful. The Ukrainians have ordered their reserves to move into the Kharkiv region. In yesterday's evening address the Ukrainian president Zelenski said:
"We are adding more troops to Kharkiv fronts. Both along our state border and along the entire frontline, we will invariably destroy the invaders to disrupt any Russian offensive intentions."
Thus the Kharkiv offensive seems designed to create a buffer zone, maybe 6 miles / 10 kilometers deep, on Ukrainian land along the norther border with Russia. That it diverts Ukrainian forces from elsewhere and positions them in mostly open land for their eventual destruction is just a welcome side effect.
It is my understanding that any further liberation of large cities in Ukraine will have to wait until the majority of the Ukrainian forces is utterly destroyed or defeated and incapable of resisting further onslaughts.