Ukraine SitRep: The 'Sanitary Zone' On The Northern Border With Russia
In today's Daily Report the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed Ukrainian reports that it had launched an attack from Russia into the Kharkiv area in north-east Ukraine:
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As a result of offensive operations, units of the Sever Group of Forces have liberated Borisovka, Ogurtsovo, Pletenevka, Pylnaya, and Strelechya (Kharkov region).Russian troops have defeated manpower and hardware of 23rd and 43rd mechanised brigades, 120th and 125th brigades of the AFU and the 15th State Border Covering Force close to Volchansk, Vesyoloye, Glubokoye, Neskuchnoye, and Krasnoye (Kharkov region).
The enemy losses were up to 170 troops, three armoured fighting vehicles, and four motor vehicles.
If the numbers in the Daily Report are somewhat correct the Ukrainian losses yesterday included 1620 dead and/or severely wounded, 21 tracked fighting vehicles and tanks, 30 trucks, 47(!) artillery pieces of various types, 4 expensive air defense systems and 6 field ammunition depots. 35 Ukrainian soldiers were taken prisoner.
These losses are about double the usual count.
The opening of a new front towards the Kharkiv region might have one or more of three purposes.
- To surround and eventually take Kharkiv city, the second biggest one in Ukraine.
- To create a buffer zone along the border to prevent Ukrainian attacks on Russian grounds.
- To divert Ukrainian reserves and to prevent them from joining the intensifying fight in the Donbas region.
To 1: Kharkiv has more than a million inhabitants. To surround and eventually take it would require a force of more than 100,000 soldiers. There are no observations or reports about Russian forces of that size anywhere near the larger area.
To 2: There is a lot speaking for this intent. On March 18, following several attacks by Ukraine towards Belgorod, President Putin had announced that a buffer zone would eventually be needed:
“We will be forced at some point, when we consider it necessary, to create a certain ‘sanitary zone’ on the territories controlled by the (Ukrainian government),” Putin said late Sunday.This “security zone,” Putin said, “would be quite difficult to penetrate using the foreign-made strike assets at the enemy’s disposal.”
To 3: Diverting enemy forces from the main axis is always a benefit when intense fighting is going on. In this the operation towards Kharkiv has already been successful. The Ukrainians have ordered their reserves to move into the Kharkiv region. In yesterday's evening address the Ukrainian president Zelenski said:
"We are adding more troops to Kharkiv fronts. Both along our state border and along the entire frontline, we will invariably destroy the invaders to disrupt any Russian offensive intentions."
Thus the Kharkiv offensive seems designed to create a buffer zone, maybe 6 miles / 10 kilometers deep, on Ukrainian land along the norther border with Russia. That it diverts Ukrainian forces from elsewhere and positions them in mostly open land for their eventual destruction is just a welcome side effect.
It is my understanding that any further liberation of large cities in Ukraine will have to wait until the majority of the Ukrainian forces is utterly destroyed or defeated and incapable of resisting further onslaughts.
Posted by b on May 11, 2024 at 12:46 UTC | Permalink
next page »b, a sixty mile buffer zone would still be too short for longer range missiles, and as the range increases, the zone increases? Territory or not, without complete capitulation from the Brits and Yanks, Russia's creep forward buffer zone will not cut the mustard.
I did read yesterday, Russia was tagged 1200k from the border, that's a huge buffer zone.....which will increase in size as Russia has yet to deter FUKUS outside of stern words.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 11 2024 13:10 utc | 2
The choice is this:
https://t.me/tupin_vladimir/51276
or this:
https://t.me/tupin_vladimir/51274
Posted by: Naive | May 11 2024 13:10 utc | 3
A 4. Objective can be added:
Take territoire to bargain with; besides n. 3
When negotiations take place, Russia will yeld this territoire and keep Donbass and remaining; if all other conditions are kept (demilitarization, no OTAN, …)
Posted by: NAP | May 11 2024 13:15 utc | 4
To 1: Kharkiv has more than a million inhabitants. To surround and eventually take it would require a force of more than 100,000 soldiers. There are no observations or reports about Russian forces of that size anywhere near the larger area.
There are not one millions inhabitants who would oppose the liberation of the city. First many will flee, second partisans will help.
Posted by: Naive | May 11 2024 13:17 utc | 5
When negotiations take place, Russia will yeld this territoire and keep Donbass and remaining; if all other conditions are kept (demilitarization, no OTAN, …)
Posted by: NAP | May 11 2024 13:15 utc | 4
Negotiations? LOL
Capitulation is the right word and Kharkov is a Russian city.
To b: Thus the Kharkiv offensive etc.
Please, use the correct name for that Russian city, where Russian is spoken, not Ukrainian.
Posted by: Naive | May 11 2024 13:21 utc | 6
The (US) has no qualms about sending weapons to Ukraine, yet the Whitehouse has stated that (US) weapons (sold or given to Israel) have probably been used to murder Palestinian women and children.
"Following Russia’s ground attack on Friday, the White House announced that after the approval of a $95 billion bill by lawmakers, the US is preparing to offer Ukraine a military aid package valued at $400 million, hence resuming its customary practice of supplying weapons to Kiev.
An anonymous US official who spoke to Reuters said that the Ukraine aid package comprised of artillery, munitions for NASAMS air defenses, anti-tank munitions, armored vehicles, and small arms. These resources can be promptly utilized on the battlefield."
Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 11 2024 13:25 utc | 7
It is my understanding that any further liberation of large cities in Ukraine will have to wait until the majority of the Ukrainian forces is utterly destroyed or defeated and incapable of resisting further onslaughts.
Sounds about right. So very soon then.
btw Kharkov 2000 had a pop of 1.5m. Anything since will be a guess, there hasn't been a census since 2001.
So I would guess a current estimate should be well below 800K which would only be in line with the overall trend for all Ukraine. Maybe 500K given all the one way traffic out of Kharkov in the last month. Maybe less.
There has been a long habit of Ukrainian speakers mistreating the Russian speakers there. They won't want to take the risk of still being around when the Russians arrive and the locals seek revenge.
Posted by: Michael Droy | May 11 2024 13:25 utc | 8
By doing this the Atlanticists in Europe are putting (US) interests ahead of their own European citizens. European politicians who back this care not about the people of Europe.
"The European Union has agreed to use profits from Russian state assets in order to supply Ukraine with military hardware, as the Kremlin has already warned about a possible global clash if the West continues with its flow of arms into the ex-Soviet republic.
Envoys of the European bloc’s member states agreed in principle to use windfall profits from frozen Russian state assets for arming Ukraine.
Russia’s war with Ukraine, which began in February 2022, prompted EU countries to freeze around €200 billion of Russian central bank assets as part of punishing sanctions by the bloc against Moscow.
EU ambassadors had “agreed in principle on measures concerning extraordinary revenues stemming from Russia's immobilized assets,” said the bloc's Belgian presidency in a post on X.
It claimed that the funds would “serve to support Ukraine's recovery and military defense in the context of the Russian aggression,” with a first tranche expected to be freed up in July.
EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen praised the agreement."
Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 11 2024 13:29 utc | 9
The main objective is always the same: attrition.
So far the resistance seems very limited. Many surrender. Ukrainian reserves will be brought. But their lack of experience will seal their fate.
Most interesting will be to see what will happen in Chasov Yar, Ugledar and Seversk when reserves are not sent there, but around Kharkov.
Posted by: Naive | May 11 2024 13:30 utc | 10
> To divert Ukrainian reserves and to prevent them from joining the intensifying fight in the Donbas region.
Wow, the fight is still going on?
Posted by: John Roberts | May 11 2024 13:33 utc | 11
Re: Posted by: NAP | May 11 2024 13:15 utc | 4
A 4. Objective can be added:
Take territoire to bargain with; besides n. 3When negotiations take place, Russia will yeld this territoire and keep Donbass and remaining; if all other conditions are kept (demilitarization, no OTAN, …)
Any kind of ”deal” like that is completely delusional.
Why would the Russians hand back territory for “deals” that will be torn up moments after they’re signed?
That would be an INCREDIBLY STUPID DEAL for Russia to sign - it would just guarantee future conflict between Russia and Ukraine/The West!
What kind of idiot would ever sign such a stupid deal?
You aren’t serious are you with that proposal are you?
Posted by: Julian | May 11 2024 13:36 utc | 12
The ppp*: "We are adding more troops to Kharkiv fronts. Both along our state border and along the entire frontline, we will invariably destroy the invaders to disrupt any Russian offensive intentions."
LOL. Large stretches of the state border are already under Russian control.
Who can take seriously the ppp declarations? They are designed to please the western sponsors and will be repeated at length by the corrupt western medias.
* penis piano player
Posted by: Naive | May 11 2024 13:42 utc | 13
Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 11 2024 13:29 utc | 9
Odessa is worth far more than these funds held hostage, problem solved.
Posted by: anon2020 | May 11 2024 13:44 utc | 14
Liberated settlements:
Kharkov: Borisovka, Ogurtsovo, Pletenevka, Pylnaya, Strelechya.
Donetsk: Keramik.
Posted by: Naive | May 11 2024 13:51 utc | 15
anon2020 (14).
That's not the point the West is getting far to good at stealing other countries assets, such as the English stealing Afghan gold, and the US stealing Venezuelan gold, what if every country decided to steal assets held in their countries owned by other nations.
The Old Empiric attitude of Europe and the West in general is one of thievery.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 11 2024 13:56 utc | 16
[email protected] Chasov Yar will be a good measure of the 'time' it takes for one group of highly skilled soldiers fighting a peer group of highly skilled soldiers to complete their task, or not. I didn't realize Chasov Yar has two mechanized groups fighting each other, which explains the slow pace or lack of substantial advance in the area.
Cheers M
... personally I think stinky Krinky is where the main action will take place....Russia moving north or Ukie moving south.....to secure Crimea Russia will need a 100 mile buffer zone all the way to......hmm, the Wild Card, Odessa.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 11 2024 13:59 utc | 17
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 11 2024 13:59 utc | 17
Krinky?
It is a meat grinder. One more.
Posted by: Naive | May 11 2024 14:05 utc | 18
Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 11 2024 13:25 utc | 7
My understanding is that Israel has already received all the weapons it needs to "finish the job" of razing Gaza & the Palestinians.
My guess is the new Ukraine gift is to cover what has already been delivered.
Posted by: Mary | May 11 2024 14:07 utc | 19
Sorry...posted this on the wrong page!
German Newspaper Tagesspiegel:
MPs in favor of supporting Ukraine with air defence from NATO territory
Members of the Bundestag from the CDU, FDP and Greens have shown themselves open to plans to protect parts of the airspace over Ukraine from NATO territory with Western air defense. CDU security politician Roderich Kiesewetter told the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung” that Western countries could shoot down “unmanned Russian missiles” over Ukraine. Politicians from the FDP and the Greens also considered such a mission to be conceivable.
According to the newspaper, the politicians supported a proposal put forward by military expert Nico Lange from the Munich Security Conference, among others. In his opinion, “a safe zone up to 70 kilometers wide” could be created on Ukraine's borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. “This would relieve the Ukrainian air defense and enable it to protect the front line,” said CDU politician Kiesewetter. The example of Israel, where the USA, Great Britain, France and other countries helped to repel a major Iranian air attack in April, shows that participating states do not necessarily have to “become a party to the war” in such a case.
Source/Read more at https://www.tagesspiegel.de/internationales/liveblog/berichte-uber-hohe-verluste-russland-bestatigt-offensive-bei-charkiw--funf-grenzdorfer-erobert-4309180.html
Posted by: Klaus | May 11 2024 14:20 utc | 20
Excelent text B.
I think EU citizens are ready to sacrifice their interests and livrs for US. Most of the population tries hard to live some kind of "american dream" or at least some Hollywood film.
Detached from reality, they know no nother option.
Posted by: vargas | May 11 2024 14:30 utc | 21
Re: Posted by: Klaus | May 11 2024 14:20 utc | 20
According to the newspaper, the politicians supported a proposal put forward by military expert Nico Lange from the Munich Security Conference, among others. In his opinion, “a safe zone up to 70 kilometers wide” could be created on Ukraine's borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. “This would relieve the Ukrainian air defense and enable it to protect the front line,” said CDU politician Kiesewetter. The example of Israel, where the USA, Great Britain, France and other countries helped to repel a major Iranian air attack in April, shows that participating states do not necessarily have to “become a party to the war” in such a case.Source/Read more at https://www.tagesspiegel.de/internationales/liveblog/berichte-uber-hohe-verluste-russland-bestatigt-offensive-bei-charkiw--funf-grenzdorfer-erobert-4309180.html
More stupidity.
Obviously Rod is a huge bedwetter.
Posted by: Julian | May 11 2024 14:31 utc | 22
Well, if moa war-pornista hated the so called "Laws-based Order" I'm sure you'll love the upcoming 'Sanitary Zone' SMO-as-you-go based order.
Posted by: putinsmoafluffaz | May 11 2024 14:35 utc | 23
@2p
Who outside a few independent sources is writing about US engaging cruise missiles and UAS over Syria and Jordan on 13 Apr?
That worked bc no one was in position to take out AEWC assets and attack interceptors.
A small no fly zone would be opposed in a small manner.
Posted by: paddy | May 11 2024 14:37 utc | 24
personally I think stinky Krinky is where the main action will take place
The most inane Ukrainian initiative of the entire SMO. WTF are they thinking attempting to establish a bridgehead to which you can ONLY send soldiers in small boats. Absolute insanity voluntarily walking into a woodchipper of your own making.
Posted by: TJandTheBear | May 11 2024 14:38 utc | 25
I think that evaluating Kharkov requires us to understand that the overall meta-strategic imperative for Russia is to control all of Ukraine. Only by exerting control over the territory can Russia implement a long-term peace plan as in Chechnya.
Every choice made between the onset of the SMO and that result has been/will be based on RF's ongoing calculation of how best to achieve that result with what is available. Intermediate objectives are fluid.
The current offensive in the north offers all three opportunities to RF, depending on when/where the on-going war of attrition reaches the point of Ukrainian collapse. Opening this front makes the process of reaching that point faster, not only because it expands the pace of attrition directly, but because engages a large fraction of Ukraine's limited manpower in exhausting and demoralizing combat at the same time. The concept of troop rotations is already broken, holding a strategic reserve for counterstrokes has already devolved into piecemeal shoring up of collapsing lines in the most expensive way- counter attacks with minimal equipment, aircover, and artillery support, without significant preparation of long-range fires. The Kharkov front multiplies this problem.
Ukraine's only significant force capable of offensive operations appears to be opposite Krinky. The potential for a viable river crossing is almost nil and attempting it would most likely destroy Ukraine's last concentration of combat potential. I think this is a simply a pinning maneuver, and a very expensive one, which the Russians are happy to play along with because they have the force structure to operate wherever they want to across the front. The other likely motive for the Krinky operation is that the concentration of resources is really about defending Odessa. If those forces were not active, they would inevitably get drawn away to reinforce other sectors- feeding the meatgrinder at Krinky justifies keeping them in place to prevent a Russian crossing in the opposite direction.
There is no need for a rapid RF advance around Kharkov at this time. Kharkov will fall because Ukraine will fall. Most of the territory of Ukraine will not be seized in combat, it will be occupied after capitulation of the regime.
Posted by: Honzo | May 11 2024 14:43 utc | 26
Posted by: Julian | May 11 2024 14:31 utc | 22
That Europe repeatedly considers all its possible military options out loud and in public says it all. Reeks of desperation.
Posted by: Mike R | May 11 2024 14:44 utc | 27
Posted by: Honzo | May 11 2024 14:43 utc | 26
Very well stated. I do still wonder if the delusional comments coming from Morcron will amount to anything and whether the USUK Axis of Evil is seriously considering the consequences of the shipments of long range missiles.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 11 2024 14:56 utc | 28
Ukraine said Russia wants a 10km buffer zone. This seems almost reasonable. If you drew a series of concentric circles around belgorod corresponding to ranges of weapon systems you would get a pretty good idea of Russian goals.
Tactics are very cautious thus far indicating Russia is prepared for months to implement this while still primarily aiming at the donbass.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 11 2024 14:57 utc | 29
A group of posts on Ukrainian drone boats (BECs) rigged with anti-aircraft missiles, which actually double as the explosive payload when attacking a ship. Apparently these should be taken seriously on the grounds of the threat they pose to manned and unmanned aircraft.
Objective on missiles on BECs.And as they suggest from the audience, these are foreign samples.
Forwarded from Inkognitovhttps://t.me/fighter_bomber/16609
The funny thing about this is that, apparently, these BECs are precisely designed to fight search helicopters, carrying two missiles as a target load instead of a bomb. That is, it was not an attack, but quite an anti-aircraft battle, while the crests lost, but that’s it for now. It’s not at all difficult to pair R-60 type missiles with anything, if you have a manual, everything is quite simple and automated - when current is supplied to the product, the head turns on, when a target enters the field of view, it is captured and an electrical signal is sent - a sign of target acquisition , then just do the puff, this is also not difficult, all the preparation for the launch takes place in the rocket.
So think, hydraulic comrades, a pair of such boats, covering each other or a strike group, can give a sucker.
Forwarded from InkognitovFrom the first weeks of the SVO (tm), it became clear that the crests concentrated their air defense efforts on knocking out equipment first, then for everything else, such as covering troops, if only because it was technologically simpler for them.
So the practice of using helicopters over the sea to shoot BECs led to the appearance of air defense drones with a very massive, simple and reliable R-60 missile on board - the missile itself weighs half a ton, I threw it on a MiG-29 pylon in one snout, just what you need for a boat .
Why did this happen? Because BEC operators have complete information about the surface and air conditions in the water area with a lag of less than a minute, directly from reconnaissance aircraft, drones and probably from a bunch of hydroacoustic equipment, that is, not a single takeoff towards the sea, not a single exit to the sea will go unnoticed. Accordingly, it will not be difficult to understand the algorithms for the work of helicopter pilots over the sea, for this you can expose several BECs to attack, you can even in a simplified configuration, without Starlinks, on one Glonass/Zhopaes/Baid and after that, taking into account the square-nested method of hydraulic response, already lead a group of air defense drones into an ambush.
Considering that telemetry from drones and intelligence information arrives almost in real time, when the helicopters approach, you can build a maneuver, turn on missile guidance and begin to greet guests.
In this situation, it should be understood that now the missile missed, next time the crowd of BECs moving towards the conditional bridge may almost entirely consist of air defense and stupidly follow the helicopter that flew out to intercept, if you think that this is nonsense - you don’t know, who are you fighting with?
What countermeasures can be applied? Well, I would take a long carbon fiber boat with three engines, a Samoan lawyer, a case of beer, a small drug laboratory in the locker and a machine gun - with cartridges and interchangeable barrels. And you can start a big hunt for sharks.
Forwarded from MichaelSo. Ukry screwed the R-60 onto the BEC.
From Belbek you cannot take off towards the sea and land from the sea. It’s the same story in Kutch, and at all coastal airfields.
Here, either change the entry and exit patterns, or hang drones over the water area 24/7 to track these BECs. And most likely both at once.
Posted by: anon2020 | May 11 2024 15:00 utc | 30
Posted by: Julian | May 11 2024 14:31 utc | 22
Anglo-Saxon turd, do you really think we care what some random Nazi thinks?
Posted by: Boo | May 11 2024 15:11 utc | 31
I don't understand why Russia chooses to encircle small cities rather than larger ones. It seems like a 'cheap' way to move the war along as long as Ukraine is mostly debilitated. Mass surrenders would result and less destruction of pro-Russian areas.
Unless....they don't want to precipitate any general collapse as slow movement forward may maximize overall gains, given the habitual obsession that 'Ukraine can win', no matter the facts.
Posted by: Eighthman | May 11 2024 15:12 utc | 32
Kharkov will fall because Ukraine will fall. Most of the territory of Ukraine will not be seized in combat, it will be occupied after capitulation of the regime.
Posted by: Honzo | May 11 2024 14:43 utc | 26
Exactly this, and it is overlooked (perhaps deliberately so) by those who obsess about changes in percentages of territory shown by amateur map-makers.
The collapse of Ukraine is inevitable, it cannot be stopped, not by NATO, not by anyone or anything.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 11 2024 15:13 utc | 33
Ukraine Weekly Update, 10th May 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-637
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | May 11 2024 15:14 utc | 34
thanks b....
@ Honzo | May 11 2024 14:43 utc | 26 offers a very good commentary here as well...
Posted by: james | May 11 2024 15:15 utc | 35
@30 anon2020
Re anti air missles on boat drones
This matches some of my thoughts on how ukraine was able to tag the a50 over the black sea and maybe that tu22 as well.
Assuming it wasn't just an accident.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 11 2024 15:16 utc | 36
Re: Posted by: Boo | May 11 2024 15:11 utc | 31
Anglo-Saxon turd, do you really think we care what some random Nazi thinks?
Nice ad hominem of no value.
Obviously proves the weakness of any argument you would attempt to make.
Posted by: Julian | May 11 2024 15:17 utc | 37
From: https://voenhronika.ru/
It is reported that Russia has launched a third offensive-between Liptsy and Volchansk from the village of Zelenoe .
The Russian Defense Ministry has officially confirmed the liberation of the villages of Borisovka and Ogurtsovo, Pletenivka, Pylna and Strelechya in the northern part of Kharkiv region.Since early morning, the Russian Armed Forces have been delivering massive MLRS strikes on the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Volchansk area . In the morning, gunfire was heard in the city - enemy forces are absent in the city, as well as the police. The main route of evacuation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the city was cut off at night by an X-38ml missile strike on the dam across the Seversky Donets
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 11 2024 15:23 utc | 38
Might need to be a river to the sea solution - in this case the Baltic Sea - to denazify and demilitarise a sanitary corridor.
Posted by: Moses22 | May 11 2024 15:24 utc | 39
Russia will need a large depopulated and neutral zone as weapons supplied by the West are capable of travelling long distances. The West has created this problem so let the West have all the Nazis from Western Ukraine and make this area the demilitarized and depopulated zone.
Posted by: Bill R | May 11 2024 15:31 utc | 41
I don't understand why Russia chooses to encircle small cities rather than larger ones. It seems like a 'cheap' way to move the war along as long as Ukraine is mostly debilitated. Mass surrenders would result and less destruction of pro-Russian areas.
Posted by: Eighthman | May 11 2024 15:12 utc | 32
So far, the Ukrainians only surrender their cities and fortresses when they are completely out of options and supplies, with the exception of Kherson. In addition, besieged cities will be fertile recruiting soil for the Banderites. If you see someone demanding that Russia take Kiev or Odessa, they're falling into this trap. The MoD knows that urban warfare would cause major casualties, as it has in all stages of the SMO.
Russia should really use more soldiers to stretch the breaking Ukrainian lines, but with the possibility of NATO intervention the MoD will want a maximum of army contracts ready for fresh deployment, and outside Ukraine.
Posted by: They Call Me Mister | May 11 2024 15:34 utc | 42
The Russians will keep grinding down and stretching the UA forces until they break. In the Avdiivka area the momentum of gains is certainly picking up pace, and if Chasov Yar goes that area will go critical for the UA as well. Opening up new fronts with fresh troops north of Kharkov and around Sumy or even Chernihiv makes sense. If the UA reacts by sending more troops there they weaken the already critical fronts, if not the Russians can push their advantage in the new areas. Also troops being transferred from one front to another become very vulnerable to Russia's increasing air supremacy.
All going to plan, on May 11th the UA losses as reported by the Russians:
- Sever Group (Kharkov): 170 troops, 3 AFV, 4 motor vehicles, 8 artillery pieces, 2 SA systems (and 34 taken prisoner)
- Zapad Group (Luhansk area): 300 troops, 1 tank, 1 AFV, 10 motor vehicles, 5 artillery pieces
- Yug Group (Donetsk north): 550 troops, 4 tanks, 1 APC, 6 motor vehicles, 11 artillery pieces
- Tsentr Group (Donetsk south): 390 troops, 5 AFV, 3 motor vehicle, 6 artillery pieces
- Vostok Group (southern front): 160 troops, 2 AFV, 5 motor vehicles, 5 artillery pieces
- Dnepr Group: 50 troops, 2 motor vehicles, 11 artillery pieces, 1 SA system
Thats 1,654 lost troops including prisoners. With under-reporting it could easily be 2,000 in one day. Then 5 tanks (including 3 Leopards), 12 AFV/APC, 30 motor vehicles (underlining the lack of armoured vehicles), 46 artillery pieces, 3 SA systems
These loss levels, which are totally unsustainable, will only get worse for the UA. They will become utterly dependent upon "technicals" (SUVs/trucks with machine guns) and infantry while totally lacking in artillery and air support. At the same time as the Russians are becoming much better at defeating drones and are saturating the front with their own drones.
This is a very good short piece on how the NATO planners totally miscalculated and how the Russians are able to grind down the UA with loss ratios of 8:1 and higher (and they will go higher with the UA denuded of armoured vehicles and artillery). A Drone's Eye View of the Ukraine War
@ b
Astute on #1, #2 & #3. Very plausible.
Rf has no intention whatsoever, imho, of destroying the historic city of Kharkov.
This remains a war of attrition to be decided on the battlefield, however the latter may be defined.
Posted by: Don Firineach | May 11 2024 15:44 utc | 44
Posted by: Republicofscotland | May 11 2024 13:25 utc | 7
My understanding is that Israel has already received all the weapons it needs to "finish the job" of razing Gaza & the Palestinians.
My guess is the new Ukraine gift is to cover what has already been delivered.
Posted by: Mary | May 11 2024 14:07 utc | 19
Good point, Mary. Scotland's comment seems to subtley promote the idea that the US actually has some ethical concerns, which any sane person knows is an absolute propaganda lie meant to cover it's direct involvement and support for the genocide of the Palestinian people in Gaza.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | May 11 2024 15:49 utc | 45
RU strategy is fairly simple: The old "frog simmering" technique is being employed along with Simplicius' concept of the Boa Constrictor, gradually squeezing the life outta its target. Using air, missile and artillery superiority/supremacy to soften the morale of the Ukie military is (1. keeping Russian casualties on a downward trajectory and (2. having the opposite effect on the enemy forces.
Another of the memes employed by Simplicicus is the old Chinese maxim of "the death of a thousand cuts". What I'm looking forward to is growing numbers of surrenders of squad, then platoon, then company and ultimately battalion sized Ukie units. The Kievists on the ground have come to the realization that they have no possible prospect of victory...therefore, if it becomes essential to frag their "superiors" in order to raise the white flag; then let it happen, cap'n.
Every insightful commentator tends to agree that the Russians will NOT even pretend to begin contemplating a direct assault on Kharkov...rather to surround that large city, cut it off from all support and then let it fall like an overripe apple. Urban warfare is a bitch, particularly for the attacker. The RU military understands that at an elementary level. Amongst those forces, the adults are most evidently IN the room.
Posted by: aristodemos | May 11 2024 15:58 utc | 46
I think EU citizens are ready to sacrifice their interests and livrs for US. Most of the population tries hard to live some kind of "american dream" or at least some Hollywood film.
Detached from reality, they know no nother option.
Posted by: vargas | May 11 2024 14:30 utc | 21
More bullshit misanthropy from old Vargas.
You seem so keen on promoting the idea that the western wage slaves and their masters have identical politics, that the powerless majority is uniformly complicit with the crimes of the ruling class. That is Zionazi logic. Thats why they murder tens of thousands of innocents in Gaza and laugh.
Not only is the logic backwards and racist, but it's just wrong. Millions in the west demonstrate their opposition to the imperialist projects in Europe and the middle east every day. Poll after poll show a huge anti war sentiment. This site alone reflects the bottled up feeling of millions in the west.
Take your anti human garbage to St. Elsewhere, buddy.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | May 11 2024 15:59 utc | 47
Posted by: Roger | May 11 2024 15:35 utc | 43
Thanks for that link (and all your posts). He makes the case well that the West felt it could whip the Russians who weren't all that much of an adversary. But I wish he, or someone, could better describe how the Western military leadership saw a Ukrainian victory unfolding. There are many things which make little sense to me about all this so have stopped following it all that much. Like:
- It seems that U has rarely had a clear, significant battlefield victory, an extended push etc. since February 22 2022.
- They have reportedly been losing far more men every day;
- I cannot discern their military objective other than giving up as little ground as possible.
- And yet they have considerable esprit de corps to keep suffering such high casualty levels day after day. I cannot conceive how they find new people to put into position to replace those which were just mowed down, nor why they haven't collapsed already.
Basically, the article leaves me wanting to read a description by one of the Western military strategists of how they foresaw victory. Capturing Donetsk? Driving on towards Moscow? Enjoying a kill ratio of 8:1 instead of 1:8? Recapturing Crimea? Or did they assume financial collapse triggering military surrender and regime change? I just don't see how they thought they could win.
The whole thing is baffling, but am not militarily trained. I also find Palestine baffling, but there it is, decade after decade, death after death.
To surround and eventually take Kharkiv city, the second biggest one in Ukraine.
To create a buffer zone along the border to prevent Ukrainian attacks on Russian grounds.
To divert Ukrainian reserves and to prevent them from joining the intensifying fight in the Donbas region.
Most likely all are correct.
Activating a (even limited) new front is favorable to the side which has the luxury to afford it.
Air defense, logistic, manpower and equipment assets need to be dispersed between north, east and south.
Kharkov acts as a sponge for assets which could be used elsewhere, or could go to the east.
Russia can use this (even if limited) buffer area to periodically reduce or intensify activity. I.e. this is an available option.
They will see where AFU deploys reserves, and lower or increase activity in different areas as needed.
All the while the rail and highway throughput through Kharkov itself is weakened.
Like Avdeevka, acts to weaken AFU ability to regularly bomb Belgorod or border villages.
This area may also force AFU to disperse 'stuff' from Kupyansk.
So it's a small back-and-forth sawing motion until things start breaking.
Clearly the front had a large contribution in increasing physical losses for AFU, where AFU has lost most air defense assets and Vampyre and Grad MLRS launchers during the bombardment of Belgorod and border areas. These are now not available.
Posted by: unimperator | May 11 2024 16:09 utc | 49
Posted by: Roger | May 11 2024 15:35 utc | 43
That article was long on hyperbole and short on insight, ironically replicating his criticisms of NATO’s approach to the conflict. The reality is far more complex, and far more interesting that the scenarios presented, which are riddled with inaccuracies and popular tropes.
Posted by: Milites | May 11 2024 16:14 utc | 50
Food for thought.
Advances into Kharkiv places Russian claims to that area plus the other 5.
With no Ukraine elections in March, on May 20-21st, there will be no incoming leader or parliament to act as authorized authorities.
So ends Democracy.
This seems to be a first for an unconquered state. The actual rule will be by whomever controls the land. Since Russia has troops, and lots of Russian speaking residents in each of the occupied territories, they can stake their claim (which they already have done in several cases.)
I foresee Russia making a formal claim in the UN, that any area they control, belongs under their government, since there is no duly elected government. Hence the current push in all directions.
This will force the EU and the UN to respond that Zelinski IS the defacto leader, which is very shaky legal ground. Of course there will be divisions in the EU (Hungary, Slovakia, Poland) and most of the UN outside of the EU and 5 eyes countries will likely side with Russia, or in the case of China, simply say it's not their concern.
The situation then will resemble the breakup of Yugoslavia. Except bordering countries will want a piece, and historically, have some sort of claim from 100 to 1000 years ago.
June 2024 will be a very interesting month.
Posted by: BroncoBilly | May 11 2024 16:18 utc | 51
@scorpion | May 11 2024 16:08 utc | 48
Basically, the article leaves me wanting to read a description by one of the Western military strategists of how they foresaw victory.“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous."
That is the core principle of the western Military Industrial Complex, continuous war enables continuous profit.
Posted by: Norwegian | May 11 2024 16:18 utc | 52
Why does Russian focus on encircling and capturing small enclaves rather than larger metropolitan areas?
It reduces the destruction of infrastructure during the fighting, and thereby, reduces reconstruction costs after the war. This is especially true if the village or town is not rebuilt or relocated.
If Russia can engage the same size Ukrainian force in a small town rather than a larger one so much the better.
Posted by: Jerr | May 11 2024 16:32 utc | 53
52: “The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous."
Very true. The Muh Attrition crowd has to reward first place to the West. Russian and Ukrainian soldiers are being slaughtered and stuff is being blown up, without the West even getting their hair muffed.
Posted by: Napoleon | May 11 2024 16:36 utc | 54
Re: Posted by: Boo | May 11 2024 15:11 utc | 31
Um, boo who?
Posted by: Mary | May 11 2024 16:39 utc | 55
I only repeat here what I said in yesterday's forum here :
Some previous meanings, picked-up here since 9th of May 2024, posted by some MoA's Commenters and its 'fact-based' infos,
I'd like to repeat + comment shortly, today (2024-05-11):
1- Note about "Agreement capable", so RF won't never sign any of a future of those like 'agreements', unless US Nulands + Clinton-Killaries having bombed them by nuclear bombs down to its Russian ruins, itself:
Posted by: jpc | May 9 2024 17:19 utc | 80
If I was Russian.
I'd never forget the post Minsk Agreement lies.
These people aren't Agreement capable!
Never been!
Never will!
______________________________
2- A note about this nonsense:
".. a burden on the Russian (future) economy" - (RF has to build-up newly the remaining rest of ruins left in UKR)
Posted by: Saturna | May 9 2024 11:01 utc | 9
replied on: "The US/UK/EU objective is to completely destroy Ukraine so it will be a burden on the Russian economy for decades to come."
_______________________________
3- Have also a 'Note' to adjacent deep-evil ghost like persons as eg. a Missus Nuland, or a Ms. Killary is something like those 'US-Ghosts' behind the scenes, a some more dangerous 'subjects' than Scholz/Maccaroni/Balic's leaders, etc.
No-one should never under-estimate those "powerful deep-stated ghosts, sitting on & controlling the "Red Button'.
Stood that? - than OK!
Posted by: Milites (as an answer) | May 9 2024 20:50 utc | 99
.. Blinken’s the puppet, look for the Obama-proxy Susan Rice, to see who was the real string-puller. Same with all the positions of US institutional power, the leaders are DEI figureheads, compromised bloviators, or those seriously limited in ability, or a combination of all three! .. ________________________________4- "Good idea" but won't happen, because most of NATO members (except EU German/French/Baltics Govs & its people) may already be very scared of such like scenarios, even published more & more in their own MSM's a little "more true" reports.
Sinking only 3 MIL-Ships would not be a reason for having started any starting any nukes fire.
Posted by: Passerby | May 10 2024 7:23 utc | 121
Most probably there will be a provocation - say, UK supplied missiles striking deep in Russia, or UK drones sinking a Russian ship - timed just before the NATO announcement. This way any Russian retaliation would come just after the NATO announcement, and can be spun as Russia refusing NATO's good faith proposal.
________________________________Finally, all today's reported 'info updates' received either from Your preferred MIL reporting sides, or from MSM, do not yet show me any evidence that there will be something started like a well-prepared RF-Offensives towards Kharkow or Belgorod/Kursk regions. Either a bluff or what else?
Note: Some comments in other forums meanwhile thinking that a very strong "War & Terrorist Conter Attack declared as "Defense OP" is needed asap. in the Southern Black Sea area and on its adjacent RF borders ..
Think about that threats - or not - we shall see .._______________________________________________________________________________________
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | May 11 2024 14:26 utc | 153
Since this war began because Vicki Nuland and NATO's regime-changed Uki government began attacking Donetsk and Lugansk, why wouldn't it have been smarter for Putin to have told them to stop, and then blow the crap out of the Ukies FROM RUSSIA if they refused to cease and desist? ...
Serious question - so serious answers please.
My only 'serious answer' to your question available today is :Why that Mr. Putin (and also his past advisors incl. RF's Intelligence Service agents) was not being aware of the really as "Ghosts" like operating CIA operative chief persons, as some named by ID above, as a (may not! say Jewish) religious Soros/Gates-like extra operating clique behind scenes, like it's proven 2001 in 9/11 days, as those strange 'ghosts' like issues by means of US-President J.Double-U Bush as publically operating puppet leader never had been re-solved (even not yet til today by any alternative media, publically or finally ?).
So, there is a big power that has the Pentagon + its RAND school + its Google/MS in-filtrated already in its back, since a long while - since years ago.That's all based on the "Ukranian Conflict" (beside some other Mafia / Money laundering like corruptive Hunter-Biden drug sons etc.)..
Rusia has been struggeling on its further EXISTENCE since 1995 - now its Gov + its people have learned something a new lesson - even the RF Youth seems using its daily Smartphones consumption in a more productive way - useful for its own like manners- than the young guys + girls in the West or in Asia like Thailand/S-Korea/Singapore ..
So let's hope - that's the newly grown-up RF-DOG (not yet a tiger), but will hopefully not destroy the USA or Europe anyway ..
_________________________________________________________RF won't advance westward in Kharkiv regions. RF has sampled troops there on its Western RF-borders. That's only a security issue operated, as all to have further here to 'speculate' on.
Got that ?
Better make a new view towards the "Black Sea" issues. So, concentrate on that. Thanks.Posted by: spare_truth_01 | May 11 2024 15:45 utc | 154
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | May 11 2024 16:43 utc | 56
@ Norwegian 52
re: The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous." That is the core principle of the western Military Industrial Complex . .
Exactly so. That's why the US is (technically) still at war with North Korea. It's the gift that keeps on giving to have 30,000 troops and an air base one flight hour from Shanghai and Beijing, plus many US military in Japan. It's the gift that keeps on giving after seventy years and counting. President Trump tried to end it and failed, the establishment wouldn't allow it.
Posted by: Don Bacon | May 11 2024 16:44 utc | 57
@ Norwegian 52
re: The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous." That is the core principle of the western Military Industrial Complex . .
Exactly so. That's why the US is (technically) still at war with North Korea. It's the gift that keeps on giving to have 30,000 troops and an air base one flight hour from Shanghai and Beijing, plus many US military in Japan. It's the gift that keeps on giving after seventy years and counting. President Trump tried to end it and failed, the establishment wouldn't allow it.
Posted by: Don Bacon | May 11 2024 16:44 utc | 58
I am not a military expert but I tend to agree with those who suggest that this is the same attrition but at a new level.
Russians think that UA’s army is pretty much stretched already. What they are doing, therefore, is a kind of a swing: they force Ukrainians move reinforcements back and forward. Eventually, this tactics will break UA’s defence along the whole of the frontline.
I base this on the following:
Successful tactics should work even if the other side can see all the moves and all the preparations; you don’t rely on secrecy;
Russians do not want to take Kharkiv by storm;
Odessa is more important that Kharkiv;
No sanitary zone is large enough.
If I am right soon we are going to see similar attacks elsewhere.
Posted by: SergeT | May 11 2024 16:48 utc | 59
Macron made a big stink about sending troops if Russia breaks through Ukrainian lines. Well, they did, now we'll know if Macron is a giver or a taker.
The big move could be on Sumy then roll south to cut off Kharkov, siege it instead of storming.
Surovikin's return, command of forces south? Sherman's march to Odessa?
Big plans, big war, we haven't seen anything yet. Russia is still on active defense, the moves around Kharkov are probing and skirmishes, but that is on the edge of ending, once Russia goes on full offense it will be vulnerable as it was at the start of the SMO, but better prepared with seasoned troops and a stocked inventory. Ukraine still seems to have a lot of fight in them, read on TG Ramstein and Rzeszow are in overdrive transferring equipment.
Or is it all to force a DMZ on the west, negotiate the sanitary zone? If not it's not going to get easier from here on out, but bigger and uglier. RF knows that and must be ready. I'm not looking forward to bigger and uglier.
For 48 hours now, unprecedented activity of the air bridge to Rzeszów has been recorded, both from Ramstein and from other directions.Equipment is being actively moved to Ukeaine. There may be"Bradley" IFVs, 155 and 120 mm shells, missiles for "Patriot".
French wheeled tanks and Caesar self-propelled artillery are being transferred to Odessa from Romania.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 11 2024 16:52 utc | 60
Free Kharkiv - for Gonzalo Lira.
RIP
Posted by: Moses22 | May 11 2024 15:29 utc | 40
Yes. And his family.
Posted by: David G Horsman | May 11 2024 17:01 utc | 61
“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous."That is the core principle of the western Military Industrial Complex, continuous war enables continuous profit.
Posted by: Norwegian | May 11 2024 16:18 utc | 52
Yeah, that works... until the opponent starts to actually win, which calls the Western MIC’s bluff as those charged with keeping the war continuous discover
- the expensive technical boondoggles don’t actually work properly
- there aren’t enough expensive technical boondoggles
- making more expensive technical boondoggles is handicapped by
· the redundancy /retirement of the skilled and experienced staff who designed and built the expensive technical boondoggles
· the replacement of the factories where the expensive technical boondoggles were made by housing developments and shopping malls
So the entire gravy train starts to shake and rattle worse than a Hitachi IET.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 11 2024 17:02 utc | 62
Severe Space Weather may be affecting ISR assets.
🌎 LIVE NOAA Radio Broadcast | Extreme G5 Geomagnetic Storm Reaches Earth! ==> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xX9qnFY9PoY
Posted by: too scents | May 11 2024 17:13 utc | 63
And here we go...
Equipment is being actively moved to Ukeaine. There may be"Bradley" IFVs, 155 and 120 mm shells, missiles for "Patriot".French wheeled tanks and Caesar self-propelled artillery are being transferred to Odessa from Romania.
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/112648
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 11 2024 16:52 utc | 60
Expensive technical boondoggles (ETB’s ?), some of which don’t work properly, others are of limited supply.
Wonder where the troops are who are supposed to operate all this stuff? Can’t possibly have been any attrition of their numbers, can there?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 11 2024 17:22 utc | 64
Every city across Russia had a victory day parade yesterday, not just the big one in Moscow. I bet nation wide more than 100,000 troops were on parade yesterday. I would guess a lot of them are getting on trains today and heading to the front.
Posted by: Gregory Purcell | May 11 2024 17:23 utc | 65
@59 serget
Re: attacks elsewhere
I believe Russia isn't really thinking about odessa or maximal buffer zones. They really want to destroy the RDK. They went into Russian territory and shot shit up agitating for the overthrow of Putin.
Where Rdk goes, and I heard volchansk, goes the Russians. They really want to protect Belgorod, that's the primary goal.
I'm sure it'll expand in time, but for now I'd expect a focus on Belgorod and the RDK and whatever the other russian exile formation was.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 11 2024 17:29 utc | 67
No need to take Kharkiv. Just surround and blockade it. Use the Red Cross to encourage civilians to leave. Most citizens are ethnic Russian, so encourage the Ukes there to surrender before the locals get to them. This might take months but it doesn't matter.
Posted by: Carlton Meyer | May 11 2024 17:37 utc | 68
Posted by: SergeT | May 11 2024 16:48 utc | 59
Russians think that UA’s army is pretty much stretched already. What they are doing, therefore, is a kind of a swing: they force Ukrainians move reinforcements back and forward. Eventually, this tactics will break UA’s defence along the whole of the frontline. :
.. Odessa is more important that Kharkiv; ..
.. No sanitary zone is large enough.
So, what's a bit more important to follow-up tactically than forgetting the so-called Kharkiv/RF-Borders West directed "DMZ" with only a 5- or 10- or 20-km deep width, broken by on a length os 240km as an DMZ is or could be to defence?
Sorry, I don't know what a DMZ in sense of RF is - or should be, I think it should be a secure zone to avoid future terrorist attacks against Russian inhabitants on previous original RFs territory borders, like Belgorod regions etc.?
Then even, for that goal to secure its civis there, RF has to keep a more than "some villages" or to destroy ALL of some bridges in UKR being available to cut any of UAF resources logistics feeding more youngsters as soldiers into a meat-grinder ..
Despite of your (RF's) above mentioned "New offensive", please go South now asap. .. To defend your Federation + its borders effectively - Now required on the Sea - rather than creating a some km width DMZ in the North that won't be splitted into x parts, broken on the entire length?
To whom I'm speaking here?
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | May 11 2024 17:40 utc | 69
Posted by: ΚΓΨ | May 11 2024 17:28 utc | 66
Ssh... he’s having his hair muffed; we shouldn’t disturb him...
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 11 2024 17:41 utc | 70
A key point is that if the Russians can push down from the north, they can easily trap 50,000 Uke soldiers now fighting in the northeast sector.
Posted by: Carlton Meyer | May 11 2024 17:42 utc | 71
Posted by: Norwegian | May 11 2024 16:18 utc | 52“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous."
That is the core principle of the western Military Industrial Complex, continuous war enables continuous profit.
Well, that does make sense. Though the article Roger linked was claiming that the West felt they could win but did not fully explain how that was so.
Of course there are many levels to something like this as was the case in WWII during which the oligarch class was buying and selling unhindered on both sides whilst men on the ground were each others mortal foes. Still, your remark begs the question: 'how does continuous war benefit those waging it?' Is it simply profits for the MIC? Is the whole world being convulsed by such shallow motivations? Surely not...
Frankly, this continuous slaughter of Slavs and Palestinians is leaving me benumbed, though it is par for the course in human history. But what does it say about our current world civilization that we cannot curtail such unnecessary slaughter?
I hope the effort to grant statehood to Palestine bears fruit because for that to happen the current geopolitical dead end that is the UNSC must be altered to make way for new decision-making mechanisms with enforcement authority.
Okay lets assume they (RF Forces) can - Dear C.M. | May 11 2024 17:42 utc | 71
"A key point is that if the Russians can push down from the north, they can easily trap 50,000 Uke soldiers ..".
What then to do with '50,000 Uke soldiers' ..?
Have you, dear C.M. any suggestions how to handle something like those 50.000 UKR soldiers logistically on the ground ..?
No - RF Soldiers at front will definetly kill (the most of - lets 30.000) of them, Oficers spared-off.
Are you realistic - or a "Ghost" - to kill such an amount of enemies "ad-hoc" ..?
I wonder - a little so far.
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | May 11 2024 18:03 utc | 73
Re: Posted by: Klaus | May 11 2024 14:20 utc | 20
>> According to the newspaper, ..., “a safe zone up to 70 kilometers wide” could be created on Ukraine's borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. “This would relieve the Ukrainian air defense and enable it to protect the front line,” said CDU politician Kiesewetter
Do Mssrs Lange and Kiesewetter realise that whatever logic leads them to think firing rockets at Russian targets from NATO territory dies not count as war against Russia would mean that the same logic allows Russia to fire rockets at NATO countries without any consequences?
Posted by: Marvin | May 11 2024 18:04 utc | 74
...units of the Sever Group of Forces have liberated Borisovka, Ogurtsovo, Pletenevka...
Use of the term 'liberated' here puzzles me a little.
Unlike Donetsk, Lugansk etc., inhabitants of Kharkov region didn't yet have the opportunity to vote on joining Russia. After recent evacuations, I suppose the villages are all but empty. Nobody left to feel either 'liberated' or 'occupied'.
Agree with the view that the offensive is aimed at a. securing a buffer zone, b. further attrition.
I wonder if domestic Russian policies dictated the decision - are Ukrainian attacks on Belgorod region a major concern for people across Russia?
Posted by: smuks | May 11 2024 18:07 utc | 75
Posted by: Norwegian | May 11 2024 16:18 utc | 52This is spot on and took me surprisingly long to internalise. There's some extra stuff on top: the USA has been busy extracting oil from Iraq and Syrian oil fields. The wars themselves have been lost (or at least: not won) but this kind of windfall profit is making someone rich and happy, so is nice gravy.“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous."
That is the core principle of the western Military Industrial Complex, continuous war enables continuous profit.
That principle also explains why the USA can move on so casually after yet another loss, such as in Afghanistan. This approach to wars (fight to fight, not to win) came only after 1990 -- I cannot yet reconcile this with the "end of history", and I believe that many important people on the Hill thought that the 21st century would be unipolar.
Posted by: Konami | May 11 2024 18:09 utc | 76
And what if, instead of "NATO boots on the ground", there are "EU boots on the ground"?
Posted by: Passerby | May 11 2024 18:15 utc | 77
Looking at the map and territory Russia has taken, Russia may well be intending a major push down both sides og the Donets river.
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=50.05783423886762%2C36.99030257683599&z=9
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 11 2024 18:17 utc | 78
Carlton Meyer | May 11 2024 17:37 utc | 68
Laying siege to a city of 1,4 million (pre-war) is a terrible idea, especially in the internet age.
Civilians would suffer most, while the military has thousands of buildings/ hiding places to choose from. It certainly wouldn't help convince Ukrainians that Russia is fighting only the AFU.
As Jerr | May 11 2024 16:32 utc | 53 said:
Encircling Ukrainian troops in villages or open fields is not only much easier militarily, but also better for Russia's reputation both with Ukrainians and the RoW. Thinking of post-war reconciliation.
Posted by: smuks | May 11 2024 18:18 utc | 79
Posted by: Konami | May 11 2024 18:09 utc | 75
.. I cannot yet reconcile this with the "end of history", and I believe that many important people on the Hill thought that the 21st century would be unipolar. ..
Whether uni- or multipolar, there are not 'many important people on the hill' that believe to survive, either by snipers or by nuclear methods.
Only a reminder to you - here.
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | May 11 2024 18:20 utc | 80
Does anyone ever watch the Ukie Youtube channel "hromadke"? I do on occasion, haven't watched an episode for while but did today. This one was posted about 3 days ago but probably from events 2 weeks ago.
They said it was somewhere near Avdiivka but when they were showing drone video of the battle aftermath, it appeared to be mostly on grassland/rangeland. I thought in the general area west or southwest of Avdiivka it was mostly tilled cropland? Than again, how much area did they actually show, it could be one parcel or so of grassland still there.
These guys had a pretty nice bunker, better than most I've seen in hromadske videos and the reporter wasn't wearing her usual helmet and flack vest so they must have known it was a pretty safe area to go, at least for that day. There certainly have been bleaker hromadske videos that I've watched.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfPjCAMSAYo
Posted by: DakotaRog | May 11 2024 18:21 utc | 81
Lots of people clinging to the Orwell quote here, like some kind of comfort blanket. What good ole Uncle Eric failed to contemplate was the prospect of “continuous war” actually ending.
A bit like the Zappa quote that often gets trotted out about the brick wall at the back of the theatre; but some are taking a closer look and finding that the wall is actually made of twigs and straw.
As @psychohistorian says: the sh¡t show continues... until it doesn’t
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 11 2024 18:25 utc | 82
Very true. The Muh Attrition crowd has to reward first place to the West. Russian and Ukrainian soldiers are being slaughtered and stuff is being blown up, without the West even getting their hair muffed.
Posted by: Napoleon | May 11 2024 16:36 utc | 54
There is much more going on here than that. Western credibility is being attritted. Western economies are being attritted. Western weapons are being attritted. The "Rules-based Order" (I often wonder who in the backroom thought up that term) is in shambles. Russia is growing more powerful. This war might be meant to be continuous, but the West no longer controls the course of this war - if it ever did. Russia will bring it to full term and it will end. The longer the West puts it off by refusing to talk the worse it will be for them.
Posted by: Activist Potato | May 11 2024 18:28 utc | 83
Posted by: DakotaRog | May 11 2024 18:21 utc | 80
These guys had a pretty nice bunker, better than most I've seen in hromadske videos and the reporter wasn't wearing her usual helmet and flack vest so they must have known it was a pretty safe area to go, at least for that day. There certainly have been bleaker hromadske videos that I've watched.
Dear 'Lakota Rog',
pls. do not mis-use any of our Red-Indian names for any of yours personal conflicts in USA/Canada to be exposed here.
Thanks.
You'll your bunker, too. Let's wait who will have the "latest word".
Thanks for listening here.
_______________________________
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | May 11 2024 18:32 utc | 84
I am off to the local support of Palestine weekly gathering but wanted to leave in response to
"
As @psychohistorian says: the sh¡t show continues... until it doesn’t
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 11 2024 18:25 utc | 81
"
my recent comment on the Palestine thread
Reuters is helping stir the pot.
Name and shame: Pro-Israel website ramps up attacks on pro-Palestinian student protesters
Messages call for protesters to be deported or expelled, possibly raped or killed.
I would not have thought that America could be split along barbarism lines but Occupied Palestine seems to be a proxy war of that concept.
Posted by: psychohistorian | May 11 2024 18:42 utc | 85
@Posted by: scorpion | May 11 2024 16:08 utc | 48
I remember from the beginning of the SMO that the Ukie forces that were massed on the front lines of the Donbass were said to be planning to invade from the north, driving firstly east and then south (perhaps even down to Rostov on Don in Russia) to completely cut off the Donbass from Russia and then use the Donbass population as human shields. With the idiots in NATO having such a low view of Russia they may have even thought that they could take Rostov on Don, then defend it against the "pathetic" Russians and that the Russian failure would bring down Putin.
The Russian invasion pre-empted this move and caught the Ukies predominantly in their forward massed positions, hence the ease with which the Russians took territory in the first few months of the SMO with a relatively small force. In late 2022 of course that small force became a liability as the Ukies regrouped and were able to take back large swathes of territory back. That helped the NATO delusion that lead to the disastrous Ukie summer 2023 offensive.
Since then the Ukies have just been trying to hang on against reality, with the West slowly (and I mean slowly) coming to grips with reality. Thats why we had that period of the Western nations talking about troops on the ground, until Putin slapped them upside the head. For the West now its just both an attempt to keep things less than disastrous before the US election and to "bleed" Russia as long as possible. Of course, Russia is not bleeding but going from strength to strength, but the Western elites still live in a good amount of delusion.
The Ukie leadership doesn't give a shit about the Ukrainian people, their plan is to keep the con going as long as possible and as long as their US masters tell them to, then decamp to enjoy their ill gotten gains. For the West more Ukie dead and more destruction is all good as it provides a poisoned chalice to the Russians, thats what they assume anyway.
"liberation" for conquering a city. A "sanitary" zone. Such Orwellian terms.
Posted by: Inka | May 11 2024 18:50 utc | 87
A great video about the little real impact, and sometimes quite positive for the Russian economy, of the West's sanctions when viewed from an individual Russian's point of view. Also, an interesting channel to follow if you want to know more about Russia from a first person perspective.
Free Kharkiv - for Gonzalo Lira.
RIP
Posted by: Moses22 | May 11 2024 15:29 utc | 40
Kharkiv remains free by keeping the Putin troops out. For all the people on both sides needlessly killed for Putin's sake.
Posted by: Inka | May 11 2024 18:53 utc | 89
Activist Potato @ 82
I was just watching this and it affirms what you said, nothing new to the regulars, but worth passing around to blue pilled friends. This is a very good channel, the guy does a fine job culling Chinese and Taiwanese discussions on the hybrid war, and he expands with his own opinions which are broad for a young guy, who BTW own a hardcover copy of Super Imperialism!
Chinese Intellectual Elites perspective on Ukraine War
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 11 2024 18:55 utc | 90
Posted by: psychohistorian | May 11 2024 18:42 utc | 84
I would not have thought that America could be split along barbarism lines but Occupied Palestine seems to be a proxy war of that concept. ..
Well stated, even not subject of any discussion here (Israel's ongoing Genocide, even bombing refugee camps in Rafah), Biden "Ghosts" don't STOP ISRAEL ZIONIST Arm< (IDF).
I wonder when or effectively that "Zionist" slaugthering civis + children slaugthering Army Guys will be "punished" each-by-each a single "person" next "days" lost slowly their lives by burning in a "Vietnam like" burning event on NAPALM !
That's only my feeling, just today.
But I'm very sure that this events will come with NAPALM on each of the IDF Soldiers - So fight for yourself - dear IDF soldiers - to skip asap. out of this NAPALM fire - dying on fire on YOUR SKIN !
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | May 11 2024 18:58 utc | 91
Does anyone know how many foreign Nationals are fighting for Russia?
I was thinking that if Hezbollah ever decides to create some foreign brigades they could probably support 30,000 men.
If this continues the number of volunteers will be in tens of thousands. Covert sponsorship of mercenaries could tip the scales in favor of the Palestinians.
It doesn't strike me as a great idea but something worth discussing. Variations on this based on language and nationality scene to have worked for both sides in Ukraine.
Posted by: David G Horsman | May 11 2024 19:04 utc | 92
So far recon by force and opportunity to destroy UKR military assets in Kharkov region as they start moving. But it doesn't mean that RUS attacking force can't grow to 50k men with heavy weapons within few weeks and the aim to encircle Kharkov. Kharkov operation creates major headache for Kiev if RUS army starts pushing for Kharkov encirclement to cut off flows of soldiers, ammo, weapons, fuel, food. Kharkov is major higway and railway intersection. Kupyanks section may get semi-encircled and experience big logistics troubles, proper evacuation would be diffcult. At the same, we are talking about June/July, RUS army may get close Mirnograd/Pokrovsk and severe highway and railway to Konstantinovka and roads to Selidovo area.
The only rail supply route would go through Lozova which RUS airforce may destroy. There would be only 2 paved roads leading to that section of front and if some bridges are bombed there will be big supply problem for UKR defenders.
How long can 100 000 UKR soldiers fight with limited logistics support and without Kharkov city (hospitals, warehouses. repairshops, facilities for troops rotation, etc.)? Is it realistic to evacuate 100k men westwards on the paved roads? What will Sirski do? He will probably fight until the last man. At the end this is what Moscow wants as its goal is destruction of UKR military.
Posted by: J_Schneider | May 11 2024 19:04 utc | 93
Posted by: David G Horsman | May 11 2024 19:04 utc | 91
I was thinking that if Hezbollah ever decides to create some foreign brigades they could probably support 30,000 men.
If this continues the number of volunteers will be in tens of thousands. Covert sponsorship of mercenaries could tip the scales in favor of the Palestinians.
It doesn't strike me as a great idea but something worth discussing.
Wouldn't that be a major abandonment of what is allegedly the core mission of Hezbollah; protection of the sovereignty of Lebanon, and the Palestinian cause?
And any side that relies on mercs never wins: Motivated soldiers always beat hired killers who are in it just for the money.
Posted by: Inka | May 11 2024 19:09 utc | 94
"Motivated soldiers always beat hired killers who are in it just for the money."
Posted by: Inka | May 11 2024 19:09 utc | 93
I completely agree with that. What I was thinking is that there are so many outraged people worldwide that support Palestine that they would be highly motivated and possibly skilled volunteers.
Posted by: David G Horsman | May 11 2024 19:18 utc | 95
Posted by: J_Schneider | May 11 2024 19:04 utc | 92
What will Sirski do? He will probably fight until the last man. At the end this is what Moscow wants as its goal is destruction of UKR military. ..
No - all stupid Neo-Nazi guys of Ukranian Mafia sponsored commanders/Generals - like the Cock-Player's guys - will be burned in a life-style NAPALM like fireworks at the NAZI's home in Kiew - that's all what will happen.
Negotiations are definetly out-of-order forever.
Terrorists may flood Russia - but Terrorists will also flood the US-like "Ghosts" - All employees in Pentagon + RAND schools + MSK adjacent CNN's + v.d.Liars poor body burning .. that's for sure so far ..
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | May 11 2024 19:18 utc | 96
"And any side that relies on mercs never wins: Motivated soldiers always beat hired killers who are in it just for the money."
Not necessarily - untrained soldiers, no matter how motivated, get slaughtered by trained ones - see Iran v Iraq - the Iranian Basij volunteers took very high casualties - or 1960s Congo, where Mulele's Simbas were no match for mercenary whites.
Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | May 11 2024 19:42 utc | 97
One of Moscow’s core war aims is rollback of NATO to its 1996 membership.
If that’s the grand strategy….
Posted by: Exile | May 11 2024 19:50 utc | 98
For your consideration:
A volunteer from the People's Republic of China in the SVO area in Ukraine
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 11 2024 19:59 utc | 99
I'm sure it'll expand in time, but for now I'd expect a focus on Belgorod and the RDK and whatever the other russian exile formation was.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 11 2024 17:29 utc | 67
In my humble opinion, your analysis has the following flows: 1) why now? 2) how a few extra miles to the buffer zone can solve the problem? 3) why offence? 4) why rdk is so special?
Posted by: SergeT | May 11 2024 20:00 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
If starting a war of agression is the biggest crime of all (as it incluses all crimes), what type of evil coward crime is promoting a civil war, where brothers have to kill brothers?
Posted by: Asian frog | May 11 2024 13:01 utc | 1