Ukraine SitRep: Niu-York Cauldron - Sumi Diversion - Supplying Crimea
A current look at the map in the east of Ukraine:
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The above maps are of the eastern front in Ukraine on April 3 and May 3. Opening them side by side one can see two significant moves by Russian forces. In the north the forces are moving west towards Chasiv Yar which is a high ground controlling anything further west of it.
On the southern part of the map, north of Avdiivka, the Russian forces have taken Ocheretyne and Keramik.
Both movements together let one anticipate a larger two pronged plan:
- From Chasiv Yar a move west roughly along the H32 road towards Konstantynivka.
- From Keramik a move north roughly along the H-20 road.
This would form a pincer which would envelope the large mining conglomerate around Niu-York, west of Horlivka. The area has been on the frontline since 2014. It is thus heavily fortified. Surrounding it is much more convenient and less bloody than storming it outright.
The Economist had a talk (archived) with Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence.
He seems to have already given up on Chasiv Yar:
Ukraine’s immediate concern is its high-ground stronghold in the town of Chasiv Yar, which holds the keys to an onward Russian advance to the last large cities in the Donetsk region (see map). It is probably a matter of time before that city falls in a similar way to Avdiivka, bombed to oblivion by the Russians in February, says the general. “Not today or tomorrow, of course, but all depending on our reserves and supplies.”Russia has already won a tactical success in the south-west in the village of Ocheretyne, where a recent Ukrainian troop rotation was bungled. Russian forces succeeded in breaking through a first line of defence and have created a salient 25 square kilometres in size. Ukraine is some way from stabilising the situation, while Russia is throwing “everything” it has to achieve a bigger gain. The Russian army is not the hubristic organisation it was in 2022, says the general, and is now operating as a “single body, with a clear plan, and under a single command”.
Mr. Skibitsky is in a generally gloomy mood:
General Skibitsky says he does not see a way for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield alone. Even if it were able to push Russian forces back to the borders—an increasingly distant prospect—it wouldn’t end the war. Such wars can only end with treaties, he says.
It is good to finally see some realism reaching Kiev.
Some Russian forces are ready to (again) enter Ukraine from the north to threaten the cities of Sumy and Kharkiv. I see this as a diversion attempt, not as a serious operation to take those cities. It is binding Ukrainian forces in the north while the eastern frontlines are too thinly occupied to hold off further attacks.
One fixation of the Ukrainian side has been the Kerch bridge which connects the larger Russia with Crimea. It was hoped that any destruction of the bridge would hamper the Russian logistics. But a map of the new railway tracks Russia has build on the northern side of the Sea of Asov shows that there are now several redundant ways to supply Crimea. A destruction of the Kerch bridge now would be a just-for-show moment without any significant consequences for the Russian positions.
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Posted by b on May 3, 2024 at 8:09 UTC | Permalink
next page »"for the show"
This is what keeps the Ukrainian regime afloat. Remove them hope and they will sign a peace with Russia.
Posted by: w | May 3 2024 8:26 utc | 2
MI6 has transmitted new intelligence to the Office of the President and the General Staff that the Russian army is increasing its stockpile of missiles and UAVs for a major counter-offensive, which could begin in May-June this year.British intelligence assumes that the main attack will be made on Selidovo-Pokrovsk, to create a springboard for a future operation to cut the Ukrainian front.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/21891
Posted by: Down South | May 3 2024 8:41 utc | 3
MI6 transmitted intelligence information to the Office of the President and the General Staff about the plans of the Russian army to create a wide bridgehead with the capture of the city of Pokrovsk.In this way, the Kremlin plans to bypass Ukrainian defensive structures on the eastern front and surround the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping in the fortified areas of Konstantinovka and Slavyansk.
Ukraine is recommended to transfer all reserves to this direction in order to stop the breakthrough and stabilize the front.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/22671
Posted by: Down South | May 3 2024 8:45 utc | 4
The entire New York - Toretsk agglomeration could probably be bypassed from the west. It is far enough (over 10km) from the H-20 road to provide no synergistic defense line, meaning the defense in New York can contribute very little to the defense of the H-20 road.
Posted by: unimperator | May 3 2024 8:50 utc | 5
Russian army is increasing its stockpile of missiles and UAVs for a major counter-offensive, which could begin in May-June this year.
Posted by: Down South | May 3 2024 8:41 utc | 3
Yikers! The Russians are already blitzing UKrain rear areas. This is about to snowball. Speaking of which does anyone know if the Dneiper river freezes over? And if so, thick enough ice to drive a APC over? I wonder if there is a technical way to refrigerate/freeze a small section of river?
Posted by: jopalolive | May 3 2024 8:57 utc | 6
Quick look at maps (topo, roads, railway) tells us that there is no way to properly evacuate New York/Toreck area if RUS army severes the T0504 highway Pokrovsk - Bakhmut and moves north of it alongside the hill ridge and ends up on the western side of valley which is overlooked by Chasiv Yar from the east. Perfect pocket. This leads UKR to decision to keep Chasov Yar at any cost and turning it into black hole sucking all available resources which will be destroyed there during next 30 days. Zaporozhie front is just another distraction forcing UKR to keep lots of units and hardware there.
Posted by: J_Schneider | May 3 2024 9:45 utc | 7
🇺🇦 The first Train went to Volnovakha station via the new Railway junction of the Mariupol port.
Posted by: anon2020 | May 3 2024 9:50 utc | 8
I wonder if there is a technical way to refrigerate/freeze a small section of river?
Posted by: jopalolive | May 3 2024 8:57 utc | 6
Technically it could be done but it would be highly energy-intensive. The infra-red signature from the heat rejection equipment would stand out like a copper lighthouse in a thunderstorm!
I don’t think the Russian forces need to freeze the river to cross it; Andrei Martyanov recently did a piece on Russia forming/re-activating a ‘Dniepr Flotilla’ including an image of a fearsome-looking armoured hovercraft-style vessel, so plans are afoot.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 3 2024 9:53 utc | 9
IMHO, the Ukrainians will not be negotiating with the Russians. The Russians will dictate terms of surrender to the Ukrainians- and to NATO / USA. The gloom the Ukrainian leadership feels is the coming inevitably of War Crimes Trials. Their only consolation will be that as many of their supporters as the Russians can grab will be joining them in the dock. As an aside, I doubt they’ll be as entertaining as Goring was at Nuremberg.
Smert Fashistum!
Posted by: OldFart | May 3 2024 10:10 utc | 11
TOS-3 'Dragon' has started appearing in the combat zone. The rockets have a 15km range reducing the ability of AFU to hit it with drones, it's more powerful than earlier versions and one salvo can reduce to ruins an entire block, like eastern Chasov Yar (Dima quote).
Posted by: unimperator | May 3 2024 10:22 utc | 12
Lol ukropians claim the bridge was unbuildable, and then unbuilt and now, that it must not exist!
It’s the type of magical thinking that only dumb fascist nazios really believe in!
‘Ironically, Ukraine spent years denying the existence of the Kerch bridge and Russia's ability to build it.
@Slavyangrad’
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/96471
The short video there shows the many voices of supposed sophisticated Ukrops talking about backward Russia that don’t understand geology or have the means, the money, the time … 4 years later and with less than $4 billion equivalent it was built a marvel of engineering that the dumb Western Europeans and natzios just can’t live with! It is impossible and must not exist they tear their hair and wail. Crimea will always be an island! They insist. What can be done with such deluded dangerous psychopaths ?
Posted by: DunGroanin | May 3 2024 10:27 utc | 13
I mean sure, eventually New York may be in peril. But so far, the advances have been pretty minimal in terms of threatening it. Your two images (yes, I actually went to the point of doing the side by side, looking at scale, etc.) show that in terms of New York, the only move affecting it is Keramik. Oche is too far away. And the Chasiv Yar movement was actually north of a salient in the south forest (that is unchanged).
Then you add some general talk about Kerch Bridge, negotiations, Kharkiv diversion.
Kind of reminds me of the mappers. When there's no content of real advances they have to fall back on other content.
-----------
Watched Theti, Willy, and MilSum this morning. No significant changes. Lot of alternate content, speculation about future advances, discussion of confirmation of earlier assertions (or the converse). But no big changes.
No matter...after all, when RFA takes a village, we celebrate a success (despite the % territory changes being glacial). When they don't? Meh...those grapes were sour! Muh attrition!
Posted by: Anonymous | May 3 2024 10:55 utc | 14
Posted by: OldFart | May 3 2024 10:10 utc | 11
dont count on that. the west will do everything possible to make any russian victory be "not a victory". i can already see them setting up "ukraines" government in exile, protected by nato, and denying any legitimy to a new ukrainian government on ukrainian soil (if ukraine exists at all that is).
they will then keep this boogeyman going, terror and partisan cells and nato help in any way possible without beeing "part of the conflict".
for the us, this is a moneymaking scheme without any downsides. the eu on the other side may as well turn into a new middle-east, as an austrian mep recently said (though he said that in the context of migration, not the ukraine war).
also as many have said, the west will never take accountability, nor will they apologize for anything that they have done here. i dont see them reimbuse all the nations that have suffered under their sanctions etc, and that would be something they have to adress if they make "peace" with russia.
Posted by: Justpassinby | May 3 2024 11:04 utc | 15
Interesting interview by Patrick Henningsen , well worth a read.
Posted by: Norfolk eagle | May 3 2024 11:49 utc | 16
Not to mention barge and coaster tramping out of Rostov and Mariupol and south of the Isthmus too.
Posted by: petra | May 3 2024 12:19 utc | 17
Jopalolive @ 6:
I have just seen a Reddit forum discussing if and when the Dnepr River freezes. The answer is that the river is frozen at Kiev from early January to around 24 March (about the time of the spring equinox). Further downstream, the river thaws earlier so at Kherson, thawing starts in early March.
I should think by now all snow melt is truly gone and Ukrainians better start preparing (if they can) for a late spring offensive by the Russians.
Posted by: Refinnejenna | May 3 2024 12:19 utc | 18
No matter...after all, when RFA takes a village, we celebrate a success (despite the % territory changes being glacial). When they don't? Meh...those grapes were sour! Muh attrition!Posted by: Anonymous | May 3 2024 10:55 utc | 14
Noone is celebrating anything. Realist pragmatists are describing the collapse of Ukraine. It seems to be you who needs to desperately find some logical spur to cling to as your worldview crumbles. Sorry for that, you should try abandoning ideology and inherent bias and just look at the facts. Ukraine was used as a cheap proxy force by the West and will be abandoned, though only because they have no options. The war has exposed the West as incapable of fighting sustained conventional war with a peer adversary. Apologies but not sorry for discussing reality. You can go watch cartoons if you prefer.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 3 2024 12:20 utc | 19
Posted by: Anonymous | May 3 2024 10:55 utc | 14
Once again you demonstrate your particularly narrow-minded view of the the concept of attrition. Here’s a helpful list for you:
- Attrition also includes exploding ammo dumps and fuel depots.
- Attrition includes wrecked Patriot systems along with other even less effective air defence systems
- Attrition includes destroyed barracks and troop mustering points
- Attrition includes a continually deteriorating electrical grid
- Attrition includes inducing economic crisis conditions, with the Central Bank struggling to control the currency (let alone its gold reserves! (I think I might have mentioned these before)). Would you like to buy some Ukrainian bonds?
- Attrition includes loss of manpower, to the point where radiotherapists and chemotherapists
from a western Ukrainian children’s cancer ward are kidnapped by the press-gang
- Attrition includes the attrition of time. Time for fatigue and panic to set in among Ukraine’s Western backers. Patience, Grasshopper!
Now That’s What I Call Attrition.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 3 2024 12:24 utc | 20
Posted by: Anonymous | May 3 2024 10:55 utc | 14
Your arguments seem alot like people arguing about whether water is wet or wet it what happens when u come into contact with it. At some point one has to realise it matters not and ur all wet anyways. Or in this case DONE. Like dinner one might say.
Posted by: Tannenhouser | May 3 2024 12:27 utc | 21
For a while now, there has been quite some speculation about what the Russians might do in their much-expected offensive.
I suspect one of the directions will be crossing the Dnieper along Kherson, just West of Zaporizhia city, alongside a push North from Kamianske-Orikhiv, to pincer Zaporozhia city. I haven't seen any discussion about this possibility (apologies if it has been covered here at MoA, I haven't been able to keep up with comments lately). I think this is in the cards for the following reasons:
1. It seems clear Russians will take Odessa (I don't think the Ukrainians will give it away in a negotiation), and unless they cross the Dniepr in the South, they have to trek all the way down from the North somehow. Also, I can't see how they can achieve this without involving Belarus. If the Russians secure a bridgehead across the Dniepr near Zaporizhia, they can turn West towards Mykolaiv and Odessa.
2. If they simply push the AFU out of the East to a line across the Dniepr, the AFU will blow up all the bridges and fortify along a more easily defensible line. This will then harden an East/West devide, which I think the Russians want to avoid. One way to avoid this is to establish a solid presence across the Dniepr before the AFU retreats from the East, removing much of the benefit of that fallback line.
3. I have been seeing over the last months little snippets of news that seem to indicate the Russians might be preparing for such an operation, although this might just be confirmation bias. For example, some time ago I read that they had been practising river crossings and that they had accumulated somewhere a very large number of transport helicopters. There have also been reports of large troop concentrations in south Zaporizhia, which are expected to be used in some kind of a North-bound offensive.
4. As far as I can tell from all the commentary and speculation I have read, a Dniepr crossing at such an "early" stage would be truly surprising. It also has a potential to wreak some major havoc in the AFU oranization.
Any thoughts on this?
Posted by: Palm & Needle | May 3 2024 12:30 utc | 22
A metallurgical plant of the defense industry company Diehl is burning in Berlin
It is reported that the company's product range includes the IRIS-T air defense system, its missiles, and GMLRS ammunition for HIMARS multiple rocket launchers.
Reports indicate that copper cyanide and sulfuric acid are burning, and the smoke from the fire is toxic.
https://t.me/llordofwar/340667?single
Posted by: Apollyon | May 3 2024 12:45 utc | 23
🧩🔥🧩 The Great New York Cauldron.Yesterday we wrote that the Russian Armed Forces are preparing to take their operations to the next, operational-strategic level. The first operation within the framework of this large-cauldron tactic will be implemented around the Toretsk agglomeration, which includes the village with the sonorous name of New York.
The Russian Armed Forces began to deepen their breakthrough beyond Ocheretino to the northwest, which initially seemed strange. It was more logical to develop a breakthrough to the southwest, bypassing the Karlovskoye Reservoir. However, if you look at the situation on a different scale, everything becomes clearer.
The group of troops of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which defends the only section of the front that has not moved in the area of Toretsk and New York, is supplied along the Pavlograd-Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway (1). From the extreme point of the Ocheretinsky breakthrough of the Russian Armed Forces, 11 kilometers remained to it.
They need to take 4 villages to ensure fire control of the route. But given the increased efficiency of the reconnaissance and strike component, the route will become more dangerous much earlier.
This is a real blow to the weak point in the Armed Forces of Ukraine - logistics. An alternative delivery route through Izyum and Kramatorsk (2) will take 310 kilometers from Pavlograd instead of today’s 160, that is, twice as long, which is critical by army standards. In current conditions, this will lead to a crisis for the group.
Previously, the Armed Forces of Ukraine would have transferred the New York group to the Kharkov supply line, but now Kharkov is greatly weakened in terms of capabilities, so the situation will objectively become more complicated immediately.
True, there is an alternative route through Pokrovsk and Druzhkovka (3), but it is objectively worse and 20 kilometers longer.
At the same time, the southern group of Russian troops is rushing forward precisely to cut off this alternative route. They also have about 10 kilometers left to the highway. The only town on the way is Chasov-Yar.
Moreover, after capturing the city, they will have two options for further offensive.
We are confident that even after the RF Armed Forces cut both main supply lines, no one will give the order to leave their positions, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine will switch to mosquito supplies, which will be the death knell for the troops inside the bag.
As a result, we will see Avdievka only on a scale: the New York group will first run out of air defense and electronic warfare, then the losses will reach unimaginable proportions.
But on mono broadcast they won’t report this the same way as about Avdeevka, they will tell how one company holds back an entire brigade of the RF Armed Forces, and society eats it up.
So, before the creation of a logistics bag, the Russians have four villages left to go, and Chasov Yar is still before the logistics encirclement.
We will watch this for the next couple of months, then there will be agony, and, of course, no one will withdraw the troops until the last minute, and the situation with the 110th brigade, which defended Avdievka, may be repeated, only on a larger scale.
Therefore, if someone has loved ones in units in this direction, take care of transferring them to other units.
https://t.me/ZeRada1/19445
Posted by: Down South | May 3 2024 12:59 utc | 24
Posted by: Down South | May 3 2024 12:59 utc | 24
The Russian Armed Forces are taking their operations to a new operational-strategic level. Now the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the front is critical, but things can get much worse.Thus, the Russian Armed Forces began to deepen their breakthrough beyond Ocheretino to the north-west, although many military experts predicted a different direction - south-west, bypassing the Karlovskoye Reservoir. Why did the Russian command make such a choice? It’s simple - the Ukrainian Armed Forces group, which defends the only section of the front that has not moved in the area of Toretsk and New York, is supplied along the Pavlograd-Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. From the extreme point of the Ocheretinsky breakthrough of the Russian Armed Forces, 11 kilometers remained to it. They need to take 4 villages to ensure fire control of the route.
But given the increased efficiency of the reconnaissance and strike component, the route will become more dangerous much earlier. And this is a real blow to a weak point in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, namely logistics. An alternative delivery route through Izyum and Kramatorsk will take 310 kilometers from Pavlograd instead of today’s 160, that is, twice as long, which is critical by army standards.
In current conditions, this will lead to a crisis for the group. Yes, there is a path through Pokrovsk and Druzhkovka, but it is objectively worse and 20 kilometers longer.
At the same time, the southern group of Russian troops is rushing forward precisely to cut off this alternative route. They also have about 10 kilometers left to the highway. The only town on the way is Chasov-Yar.
Well, then we will see another self-repetition from the Ukrainian authorities - even after the Russian Armed Forces cut both main supply lines, no one will give the order to leave the position. As a result, we will see Avdievka only on a scale: the New York group will first run out of air defense and electronic warfare, and then the losses will reach unimaginable proportions.
And naturally, at the telethon, Ukrainians will be sung a completely different song about how one company is holding back an entire brigade of the Russian Armed Forces, and society will once again swallow the outright lies of Bankova’s speakers.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/22690
Posted by: Down South | May 3 2024 13:01 utc | 25
The Azov brigade is still not allowed to receive US assistance, and Zelensky has refused to resolve this issue, said brigade commander Denis Prokopenko.According to him, the team twice tried to submit a petition on the website of the President of Ukraine, but they refused to publish it. The OP referred that this issue does not fall within the competence of Zelensky.
The point is that the US itself is prohibiting the supply of American weapons to Azov.
“This was a consequence of amendments to US laws, which have been in force since 2017, and block the provision of weapons and training or other assistance to the Azov battalion,” recall the brigade commander.
In a petition to Zelensky, the “Azovites” wanted to call on the leadership of Ukraine “to make every effort to ensure that the amendment banning the provision of American weapons to Azov is removed from US laws.”
https://t.me/nabludatels/42110
Bankovaya specifically does not want to resolve the issue, since Zelensky himself is interested in Azov being poorly equipped, equipped and with “old” armor.Which will lead to a further decline in Azov’s popularity, since no one wants to fight with “old stuff.”
We have been writing for a long time that ZeErmak is cleaning out all inconvenient people inside the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Azov also faces the fate of DUK PS in the future. Ermak does not need them in the future.
https://t.me/legitimniy/17863
Our source in the OP said that the AZOV brigade is not receiving Western assistance by order of the Office of the President, while the official reason given is amendments to US laws that have been in force since 2017 and block “the provision of weapons and training or other assistance to the Azov battalion.”On Bankova they want to disband all autonomous units, in order to exclude the possibility of a military coup.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/22689
Posted by: Down South | May 3 2024 13:05 utc | 26
I wonder what game Macron is playing. Perhaps he sends a few expendables from the Legion into Ukraine, they get killed and he gets street cred for standing up to Russia and the freedom to castigate the EU with, "we went there and where were you guys?" Could even eventually lead to a rapproachmont with Russia that would be advantageous later, once Ukraine collapses and he gets to say, "we were brave and you guys weren't, so shut up and go away, we want commercial ties with Russia"
It's also possible French troops are largely dead there anyway and he can pretend he sent them more recently to show how brave he is.....
Posted by: Eighthman | May 3 2024 13:10 utc | 27
Anonymous | May 3 2024 10:55 utc | 14
'' But no big changes.''
Of course, you ''look'' right.., but you ''are NOT'' right !
What we see happening is ''death by a thousand cuts''.
A great russian victory through a thousand everyday small victories.
They stay put and they let the enemy waves crush, again and again, futilely, on them.
Something similar happens in fishing.
Instead of roaming the seas, you stay in the same place and you force the fish come to you and get caught, through ''groundbaiting''.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groundbait
In greek it is called ''malάgra'' and the verb is ''malagrόno''.
Russia ''malagrόnεi'' and continuously catches fish, with minimum losses.
My only wish was, that this should not ever happen, and that both peoples could catch an abudance of fish together !
But such a naive dream is not permitted in this world.
So, let's get over it. as soon as possible, and we will build together another world, to fulfill our dreams.
Posted by: ΚΓΨ | May 3 2024 13:23 utc | 28
Russians menacing New York? The NYPD had no trouble crushing unarmed students, but I fear they won't be able to stop T-90s . . .
Posted by: MFB | May 3 2024 13:25 utc | 29
RE: Posted by: Eighthman | May 3 2024 13:10 utc | 27
“I wonder what game Macron is playing. Perhaps he sends a few expendables from the Legion into Ukraine,”
I’ve given this a lot of thought, watching Macron in the Syrian war as well. Macron has always kept a door open or tried to have some form of communication with Russia.
When Macron first started spouting all this “sending troops to Ukraine” nonsense it was in the backdrop of other losses in Africa. Bottom line, US/EU Commission is looking to supplant “Old Europe” (Germany/France/Spain/Italy) with “New” Europe power. Poland and Baltics. The lead and rantings of Poland, the army in Poland ready to invade Belarus & West Ukraine. Be the new darling of US, where the rest of the EU is serving the Baltic US/UK new mistress .
We all know Frances ambitions for EU, this “talk” of incursion into Ukraine, is France’s way of saying: “F**k you Poland, you’re a dog…” He’s asserting the “old European power”.
China and Russia see it as well, hence, the China Macron France meeting. Did Macron “invite” Von der Lyon?? Hell no,
There are articles in the news that he doesn’t even support her re-election. Did he want her tagging along when he went to China? Hell no, she’s “assigned” to keep him restrained.
Macron is weak and stupid and corrupt. But he has old money behind him, and that old money isn’t going to be “humiliated” by a “dog” Baltic state like Poland (their view) becoming the center of power in EU. Hence, all the squawking about forces. Just my opinion.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 3 2024 13:44 utc | 30
https://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/159513-syrsky-ukraine-russia-offensive/
This should finally put a stop to all the talk of 'stalemate' and criticism of Russian war strategy. Yes, it's been frustrating to watch and often upsetting in the case of Kherson and Kharkiv. Yet, they stuck to the strategy of attrition over territory gains -and now Ukraine has run out of reserves.
"Rope a Dope" worked. In Krinky, in Rabotino, all across the line of contact. Ukraine punched itself out and it's the tenth round.
Posted by: Eighthman | May 3 2024 13:44 utc | 31
Interesting tidbit from Dima's video yesterday. DeepState maps signed a contract with the Ukrainian defense ministry. So Dima now considers them compromised and unreliable.
Wasn't that the source Berdichi Bob was touting the other day?
A couple predictions:
1. Zelensky will order a group of special forces to capture some Russian tanks, maybe to show off as trophies in Maidan square. Another media propaganda move to keep up with the Russians. He's enraged for sure.
2. YouTube will soon start cracking down on Dima, Weeb Union, and other independent mappers. They will first be demonetized, and if that doesn't work, outright banned. US government will want total media control during Shit-for-brains re-election campaign this summer, and videos demonstrating the real state of the UAF are the equivalent of a turd in the punchbowl.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 3 2024 13:45 utc | 32
The work these guys are doing on FPV development is a direct substitute for infantry casualties.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXLXh_5kM_w
The developers of the Russian FPV drone "Gadfly", which we talked about earlier, showed the communication repeater they created for drones. Communication relay for FPV drones allows you to significantly increase the operating range of FPV drones, bringing it to 30 km and above. The repeater has a 33-meter cable that allows you to work from a shelter; it has a signal conversion system that allows you to work with a wide range of ground-based equipment. Production is still on a small scale, about 10 pieces per day.
Oh🤓Mom, we're on TV again😅
Posted by: anon2020 | May 3 2024 13:55 utc | 33
There's probably very few troops in new York. I like the website militaryland it shows defensive lines and unit names and locations.
According to them it's held by a couple units the 24th mechanized and a national guard unit.
There wont be cauldron it's being ignored because ukraine isn't keeping reserves there, it's full of heights and towns which they depend on to hold it.
They will use it to trade for time later if Russia gets around it.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 3 2024 14:00 utc | 34
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 3 2024 13:45 utc | 32
I think you're right about a crackdown coming. Dima and other similar YouTube channels better back up their videos and find a backup host like Rumble etc.
Posted by: Morongobill | May 3 2024 14:03 utc | 35
posted on the Ukraine thread
thought it worth posting here not to be missed
Helmer today
A senior Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) officer, who is the Assistant Chief of Staff at the NATO Allied Rapid Reaction Corps (ARRC), faces court martial, “dismissal with disgrace”, and loss of his military pension for having disagreed with Canadian, American, and British military planners of Ukrainian battlefield operations against Russia. His disagreement was in private, when the officers were asking for his professional assessment, and didn’t like what he told them.
Canadian military sources believe Kearney is being court-martialed now because the Canadian government’s policy to finance, arm, train, plan, and direct Ukrainian operations against Russia is being defeated, and that the military collapse east of Kiev now risks loss of more territory and the lives of Canadians currently working in the Ukraine and at cross-border bases in Poland and Romania. At least one thousand Canadians have been counted by the Russian Defense Ministry on the battlefield since the start of the Special Military Operation; by March of this year, 422 had been confirmed killed in action.
Posted by: ld | May 3 2024 14:04 utc | 36
"A destruction of the Kerch bridge now would be a just-for-show moment without any significant consequences for the Russian positions."
Electioneering.
Posted by: bevin | May 3 2024 14:49 utc | 37
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 3 2024 13:45 utc | 32
Posted by: Morongobill | May 3 2024 14:03 utc | 35
Agreed, this is the “tidying up” of the information sphere of which attempting establish censorship over Telegram is a component. Co-opt, intimidate or eliminate.
Posted by: anon2020 | May 3 2024 15:03 utc | 38
ld | May 3 2024 14:04 utc | 36
Thanks for posting the link. A very sordid story: a warning to honest men in the Canadian Armed Forces to think in sync with the fascists. We could count on Patrick Armstrong's informed view except that he has been brutally intimidated into silence.
A large part of the problem is that the Canadian media is now, literally, on the Federal payroll: corporate control was bad but at least there was the possibility of competition between rival newspapers seeking more readers. Such competition no longer exists and the media's only role is to propagandise for a government whose only role is to do what Washington instructs it to do.
Posted by: bevin | May 3 2024 15:09 utc | 39
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/52130
Tankers of the 68th Army Corps destroy a Ukrainian Armed Forces stronghold
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/52126
⚡️Russian troops tracked down and destroyed a convoy of Ukrainian Armed Forces equipment in the Kharkov region using a 300-mm Tornado-S MLRS, reports @warriorofnorth.
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/52124
Russian artillerymen hit a field ammunition depot and several supply vehicles in the Pokrovsk area with a precise strike, reports @The_Wrong_Side.
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/52118
❗️One of the large "Baba Yaga" quadrocopter drones was shot down with a Kornet AT missile
Posted by: anon2020 | May 3 2024 15:13 utc | 40
thanks b... i take the long view... i see this statement as a breathe of fresh air..
"Such wars can only end with treaties, he says." more of this... in the meantime, i think @ ΚΓΨ | May 3 2024 13:23 utc | 28 has it right.. thanks ΚΓΨ
as for macron - i tend to see it much the same as @ Trubind1 | May 3 2024 13:44 utc | 30.. thanks trubind1...
@ ld | May 3 2024 14:04 utc | 36
thanks for your comments on the other thread and for this link to helmer today that interests me!
Posted by: james | May 3 2024 15:18 utc | 41
@ bevin | May 3 2024 15:09 utc | 39
thanks bevin.. that is how i see it too.... who are you voting for in the next election? i am voting maxine berneir..
Posted by: james | May 3 2024 15:19 utc | 42
@Apollyon | May 3 2024 12:45 utc | 23
A metallurgical plant of the defense industry company Diehl is burning in Berlin
It's not "Diehl Defence", but "Diehl Metall" an other subdivision of "Diehl Stiftung & Co. KG".
Posted by: dustbunny | May 3 2024 15:35 utc | 44
Posted by: DunGroanin | May 3 2024 10:27 utc | 13
It is impossible and must not exist they tear their hair and wail. Crimea will always be an island! They insist. What can be done with such deluded dangerous psychopaths ?
----
75 years ago, Hannah Arendt perfectly described today's insanity:
the elite formations understand...that when they are told that only Moscow has a subway, the real meaning of the statement is that all subways should be destroyed...The outstanding negative quality of the totalitarian elite is that it never stops to think about the world as it really is and never compares the lies with reality.H. Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism
Posted by: john brewster | May 3 2024 15:44 utc | 45
>> General Skibitsky says ... Such wars can only end with treaties, he says.
General Skibitsky git it wrong here. NATO wars have only two possible endings, treaties are not one of them
Either NATO runs out of things and people to destroy, and leaves torched earth behind. See Libya.
Or NATO gets booted out by the locals and runs away screaming, to hide under mamas skirt. See Vietnam. See Afghanistan.
There will be no victory for Ukraine. Best case, Ukraine gets their ass whipped, buried it's dead and starts paying reparations to Russia and interest to the US.
Worst case, Ukraine disappears from the maps, the eastern parts ending up as parts of Russia, the western parts polish.
NATO, on the other hand, may well celebrate. The Russian losses. The record budget for arms and gadgets. Thousands of promotions. What's not to like?
Posted by: Marvin | May 3 2024 15:44 utc | 46
NATO, on the other hand, may well celebrate. The Russian losses. The record budget for arms and gadgets. Thousands of promotions. What's not to like?Posted by: Marvin | May 3 2024 15:44 utc | 46
Oh I don't know, spiralling financial and political crises, exposure as a military paper tiger which believes wars are won by whoever swings the biggest bags of money that has no capacity to sustain conventional war with a peer opponent, inadequate and overpriced weapons systems, the consolidation of support in Russia under Putin thanks to being attacked? The exposure of NATO methodology to Russian countermeasures, the strengthening of the Russian army, the de facto alliance deepening between China and Russia?
Sure, 'winning' real hard. They say those who the gods destroy they first make mad. The West is doing collectively a very good impression of lunacy..if they're not actual fanatics they sure do seem like it.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 3 2024 15:58 utc | 47
Posted by: ld | May 3 2024 14:04 utc | 36
Thanks for that link, quite a chilling read in some ways, but then the situation can also be framed as a kind of indirect attrition, as the Western military and political leadership purges itself of competence and experience, replaced by ideological conformity. This inevitably leads to dysfunction, a catatonic reaction to actual battlefield realities, and eventually complete collapse, accompanied by the increasingly shrill screams of propaganda outlets.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 3 2024 16:04 utc | 48
Again, it's the anti-logistics war. As I've continued to note, Russian abilities to hit deep rear supply caches has radically improved along with its ability to hit near rear logistic corridors. When you have third and fourth line troops, one way to make them better is to keep them well supplied, but the inverse is also true when you greatly limit supplies they become demotivated. The Ukies sitting in the bag have until now been reasonably well supplied, but that's about to end well before Russian FABs begin to fall on their positions. The smart move for the Ukie command would be to mount a well coordinated withdrawal to superior defensive positions where those troops have a better chance at being supplied and thus fight better. Such a show of prudent troop management would actually bolster Ukie morale. But such prudence I've yet to see from the Ukie command.
About the Kerch- Bridge. Nothing to worry about. As it was reported after the destruction of North Stream; The Russians will blow the damn bridge up- and blame it on the West.
Wait and see, Putin and Prigozhin is plotting rigth now
Thanks b, good to have you back, i was worried, Peace and love to you
Posted by: Paul from Norway | May 3 2024 16:39 utc | 50
Marvin @46: ”Best case, Ukraine … starts paying… interest to the US.”
No way. The best case is for the Ukraine to cease to exist entirely. There is no way the state’s debt can be repaid, so it is best for the people who live there if the Ukraine takes that debt to the grave.
Posted by: William Gruff | May 3 2024 16:40 utc | 51
Posted by: Refinnejenna | May 3 2024 12:19 utc | 18
With an accelerated RU offensive, or conversely a loss of UKrain morale and logistics, the time frame for a conventional Dneiper River crossing could be next winter.
A collapse in east UKrain timed before the US elections would be geopolitical ballet. Russia appears to have unused escalation capacity to time it as they see fit.
Posted by: Palm & Needle | May 3 2024 12:30 utc | 22
Odessa would seem to be THE PRIZE of this war for the Russians. Second to Crimea. Why bother with the west UKrain?
"AFU will blow up all the bridges and fortify along a more easily defensible line. This will then harden an East/West devide, which I think the Russians want to avoid. One way to avoid this is to establish a solid presence across the Dniepr before the AFU retreats"
Exactly. Russia may even negotiate an end to the war with the annexed Donbass with Kherson province straddling the Dneiper. Doing so will get a foothold to the west without fighting, then wait 5 to thirty years for an Odessa operation.
The west must suspect this, so the war must go on, no recognizing the realities on the ground.
Attrition war against over extended supply lines makes much more sense than attacking over a moat with psychological castle walls. UKrain ttacking in Russ Donbass must at some level lessen their fighting spirit, even if subconciously. Home field vs. away.
Patience is working. The one caveat would be future disruptive US military tech.
Posted by: jopalolive | May 3 2024 16:48 utc | 52
William Gruff | May 3 2024 16:40 utc | 51--
Absolutely!! Let those who intended to profit from this conflict eat the costs and turn their anticipated profits into big losses. There should be no legal successor to the artificial state of Ukraine.
Stephen Byren reports:
France Sends Troops to Ukraine - Will the Deployment Trigger a Bigger War?
France has sent its first troops officially to Ukraine. They have been deployed in support of the Ukrainian 54th Independent Mechanized Brigade in Slavyansk. The French soldiers are drawn from France’s 3rd Infantry Regiment, which is one of the main elements of France’s Foreign Legion (Légion étrangère).
...
The initial group of French troops numbers around 100. This is just the first tranche of around 1,500 French Foreign Legionnaires scheduled to arrive in Ukraine.These troops are being posted directly in a hot combat area and are intended to help the Ukrainians resist Russian advances in Donbas. The first 100 are artillery and surveillance specialists.
To eliminate those troops before additional ones get deployed would probably be the least violent way to end that nonsense.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 3 2024 10:55 utc | 14
"Meh...those grapes were sour!"
Better you get used to the taste, 'Anonymous' - you'll be getting a lot more of it in the months to come. Cope better.
Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | May 3 2024 17:25 utc | 55
The so-called peace summit in switzerland is nothing but a sham.
Theres no date for it because the objective was to invite russia when they believed kiev wd be winning and moscow needed a way out of a defeat. Negotiations tbrough a position.of strength. Remember that?
It hasnt happened. So the west is in the embarrising position of organising a completely pointless conference.
Maybe moscow should do the same and organise a similar conference in beijing lol.
Posted by: HERMIUS | May 3 2024 17:27 utc | 56
Posted by: Eighthman | May 3 2024 13:10 utc | 27
=============================================================================
Macron is a frog with zero mandate and a failed banking and political career.
He will go and no one ever will miss him.
Posted by: AI | May 3 2024 17:39 utc | 57
To eliminate those troops before additional ones get deployed would probably be the least violent way to end that nonsense.
Posted by: b | May 3 2024 16:53 utc | 54Thanks for the update B and good to see you back. Dima said than Macron would send troops if Zelenky asked for it. Apparently Zelensky called Macron for help.
7
Of course it is insans but everyyhing about that conflict is insane. At best Washington and the Quai-d'Orsay live in another universe with their own ethics: in the same leage with Nathanyahu.
Posted by: Richard L | May 3 2024 17:44 utc | 58
#20 with a really good pseudonym
Now that's what I call explaining the process.
We all have dreams, and one of mine is the cessation of bombarding the civilians
Posted by: paxmark1 | May 3 2024 17:51 utc | 59
Ukraine Weekly Update, May 3rd, 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-210
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | May 3 2024 18:07 utc | 61
RE: “Maybe moscow should do the same and organise a similar conference in beijing lol.”
Posted by: HERMIUS | May 3 2024 17:27 utc | 56
Agree with post. Been thinking about a possible MOA “pool bet” a couple beer 🍺 rounds for winner:
One hundred sixty (160) “invited”… how many show?
You first: …
I’m still counting…
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 3 2024 18:08 utc | 62
France has sent its first troops officially to Ukraine. They have been deployed in support of the Ukrainian 54th Independent Mechanized Brigade in Slavyansk.
Posted by: b | May 3 2024 16:53 utc | 54
In the map I have the 54th is far from Slavyansk.
Is the map wrong or the attachment? Syversk?
Posted by: Newbie | May 3 2024 18:17 utc | 63
Re: Posted by: ΚΓΨ | May 3 2024 13:23 utc | 28
That "death by a thousand cuts" only took .01% of territory in March. Not 10%. Not 1%. Not .1%. But .01%.
So...at that rate, the death by a thousand cuts needs to be renamed to death by a thousand years.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 3 2024 18:17 utc | 64
RE: “The first 100 are artillery and surveillance specialists.”
To eliminate those troops before additional ones get deployed would probably be the least violent way to end that nonsense.
Posted by: b | May 3 2024 16:53 utc | 54
100?? There have already been 100s in and out since SMO. There were some in Mariupol stand off back in the day.
According to Medvedev, quick elimination is the plan.
I still assess, atm anyways, that it’s a power“check” on Poland, more than anything. So that Poland doesn’t get any “frisky” ideas, more than some “heave ho let’s kill some Russians” thing. Then again, he may be the appointed sap to open a NATO war. It’s fuzzy. It may go the Medvedev way quickly.
At the moment, 100 troops, for “surveillance” and to check artillery stock? Well, Russia knows threat best, I’m just not seeing it. Especially with the China stop coming up. Everyone knows China is done playing and wants BRI moving along…
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 3 2024 18:20 utc | 65
Posted by: Anonymous | May 3 2024 18:17 utc | 64
May Z use your teeth as a piano keyboard :D
Posted by: Newbie | May 3 2024 18:21 utc | 66
[email protected] apply logic to a situation that defies it....me too. Why Ukie didn't see falling back to better more defendable lines as prudent, rather than the current defend to the death pocket here, pocket there, three 'bags' full Sir....raises many questions begging for answers.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 3 2024 18:28 utc | 67
Posted by: Newbie | May 3 2024 18:21 utc | 66
LOL, well played! A drink at the bar on my tab.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 3 2024 18:35 utc | 69
For better or for worse, the will to fight is not something readily identified with the French. Those soldiers will provide a nice additional basis to the renewed chernozem in the Ukraine. Blood meal is a stellar fertilizer.
Posted by: Matthew | May 3 2024 18:42 utc | 70
@ Posted by: b | May 3 2024 16:53 utc | 54
I shouldn’t worry too much - in my opinion they are already eliminated.
This is just their ‘official deployment’ so it can be claimed they only died on official orders and hence get their post humour medals, pensions and state funerals.
I can not conceive ANY western soldiers not knowing the survival chances and actual hours in the field before death currently of their natzo trained Ukrops and err ‘mercenaries’ - and hence volunteering for certain death.
I’d like to see those soldiers photos and videos ( non AI generated! ) holding current copies of newspapers and their holiday snaps from this Easter - and actual eyewitnesses to that.
It won’t surprise me that the numbers of soldiers and how many die will end up equating to RF stats on the mercenaries they have eliminated during the SMO.
Hence I see it as a move of admitting defeat and withdrawing like Napoleon and Hitler were forced to and yet another charge into the valley of death by the British aristoholes.
Posted by: DunGroanin | May 3 2024 18:49 utc | 71
The pompous ass ill-educated Eton-bastard Cameron, has said in Sky News earlier today: "I don't think it is right to have NATO soldiers killing Russian soldiers,". What makes this moron think that Russia won't oblitarate instead all those obesse self-inflicted LGTBQ+ neo-NAZI nato soldiers long before they hit any Russian soldier?
Posted by: AI | May 3 2024 18:55 utc | 72
LOL, well played! A drink at the bar on my tab.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 3 2024 18:35 utc | 68
Thank you! Currently on Bombay Saphire and tonic.
I don't particularly like that, but some cases don't deserve more.
I will, to some foolishly, engage any valid argument and whatever I can get as information or discussion, I will take. But not full retard, never go full retard.
On the other hand big serge has made one of his few articles and it goes in the sense of an intuition that RF is pulling AFU forces from where they realy want to strike...
Posted by: Newbie | May 3 2024 19:13 utc | 73
The "muh-attrition" crowd here seems to be channeling General Westmorland of Vietnam and his world renown body counts. Attrition is now an excuse for quagmires, slogs, and failed conquests. This war (smo) is Putin's Vietnam. Vlad never learned anything from Russia's failure in Afghanistan.
Imagine if Germany had not gone around the Maginot Line and simply thrown massive forces against the French, for years, as is happening in this war. I am sure there would be "muh attrition" apologists, boasting about all the dead Frenchman.
I feel sorry for the attrition crowd. There is an 800 pound elephant in your room. If attrition is so great, who is the winner here? Think about it -- it's the West.
Imagine Ukraine itself is a huge Chasif Yar. Russian troops have been slamming up against this nation state for years. The result: dead Russians, their flagship sunk, strikes into Mother Russia, and the West sits back and prints a small amount of money, primarily for their MIC, to keep the war going.
If the Muh Attrition crowd is serious. They must concede the winner of Putin's Vietnam is America and NATO, as they watch Russia fight on a static front against their fellow slavic brothers -- it's almost like pay-per-view boxing.
Posted by: Napoleon | May 3 2024 19:15 utc | 74
Posted by: Napoleon | May 3 2024 19:15 utc | 73
You kind of remind me of this clip: Grand Moff Tarkin demonstrates why risk is the product of likelihood and impact in 40 seconds.
Meanwhile at Brussels and Washington.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRY0cs26Zvo
Posted by: unimperator | May 3 2024 19:22 utc | 75
Magical thinking is the latest mental refuge of the failed scoundrel.
I'm imagining Ukraine post Zelenskyy, after the West conceded out loud that Russia would have to be accommodated. In order to save Ukraine, they might imagine they could destroy it, carving parts of it off and granting border territories to Poland and other nations. What was left could be called Nova Ukrayina, and it could be portrayed as having a fresh start, and by definition having an undefeated military, and an uncorrupted government.
That might satisfy Russian demands for accountability from the Ukrainian government, as it could be said that Russia had already been granted its total destruction. Once the end game became clear, that Russia was going to get a win, the elites of the West would have no qualms in looking to make a buck off that, and would offer Russia a lot: an end to sanctions, it's money that was frozen given back, in exchange for some access to the land and resources they thought they'd swindled Ukraine out of, in the eastern and central parts of the nation.
I could see the West cooperating in hunting down and eliminating the worst and most out in the open Azov types, after the West had negotiated a deal with Russia, as they'd only be an embarrassment, and painful reminder of a deal with the devil, once the West got about exploiting Ukraine in the post bellum period. Indeed, the Azov types would represent a possible violent obstacle to that grifting by outsiders, unless they could be bought off. It could become seen as cheaper in the long run to point them out to Russian Federation special forces.
Posted by: Babel-17 | May 3 2024 19:31 utc | 76
Posted by: Napoleon | May 3 2024 19:15 utc | 73
Another piano candidate...
Posted by: Newbie | May 3 2024 19:34 utc | 77
@64 anonymous
Re: taking territory = attrition
I think you misunderstand what is meant by a 1000 cuts. Russias strategy is quantified by dead soldiers and equipment.
Putin said at the beginning the war isn't about territory russia has enough territory.
It is a new war this isn't your grandfather's world war 2.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 3 2024 19:44 utc | 78
Posted by: ld | May 3 2024 14:04 utc | 36
I watch Military Summary (Dima) on Rumble.
Posted by: Blue Dotterel | May 3 2024 19:51 utc | 79
Russia does need to negotiate on The Ukraine. They are, on a daily basis, knocking the fascists right out of the park.
Posted by: Merkin Scot | May 3 2024 19:54 utc | 80
Scott Ritter's take on current events in Ukraine-Natostan with Nima.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxNJpmCeEPQ
Posted by: unimperator | May 3 2024 19:56 utc | 81
In response to
"
To eliminate those troops before additional ones get deployed would probably be the least violent way to end that nonsense.
Posted by: b | May 3 2024 16:53 utc | 54
"
I agree that we are into the nonsense desperation phase and look forward to decisive sort of action taken by Russia...they have been warned and they are prime targets.
The shit show continues until it doesn't and my prognostication is Ukraine surrenders before August but I think much sooner, like before May 20 when Z loses legal agency in Ukraine.....I was hoping for Orthodox Easter but that may be too soon yet.
I want to be correct to see lives saved, not because I want to be right.
Posted by: psychohistorian | May 3 2024 19:58 utc | 83
It seems that Ukraine is still able to attack Krynki.
They have full FPV superiority there.
Dima doesn't understand why is Russia not using more drones on that direction.
Posted by: vargas | May 3 2024 20:03 utc | 84
".. who are you voting for in the next election?.." james@15:19 utc | 42
1/ Ask all candidates to sign a pledge: if elected I will not vote for military assistance to Israel. I will vote against supporting genocide, ethnic cleansing and apartheid in Israel.
2/ If no candidate will so pledge none of them should receive a vote from decent people.
As to me? I am currently working to get a pro Palestine, pro homeless, candidate to run on a platform of putting an end to homelessness by diverting money from American imperialist projects.
No Ceasefire. No votes.
Posted by: bevin | May 3 2024 20:10 utc | 85
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | May 3 2024 18:07 utc | 61
thank you very much for your regular contributions :)
you are really underrated <3
Posted by: Macpott | May 3 2024 20:15 utc | 86
Posted by: Napoleon | May 3 2024 19:15 utc | 73
<sigh> Another one who doesn’t understand that attrition takes place away from the front line as well as on it.
Could I interest you in buying some Ukrainian government bonds? The 10-year perhaps? A sure-fire winner, high yield, guaranteed to run to maturity...
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 3 2024 20:18 utc | 87
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 3 2024 19:44 utc | 77
Ah...the muh attrition argument. Somehow that massive attrition hasn't done enough damage to fracture the line though. Hmm...can't be THAT massive if that's the case.
And how convenient that the thing we CAN check (territory) shows poor RFA progress, but the thing we can't (attrition) is supposedly going great. It's like the mirror image of what the NAFO fans claim about Russian losses! :crazy:
Oh...and RFA actually exited Kherson (which is ANNEXED RUSSIAN TERRITORY) a year and a half ago. Somehow that's fine. Big hunks of several oblasts of technically Russian land are fine sitting under the Ukrops.
But Odessa any day now, right? We'll just teleport past Kherson and the Dnieper.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 3 2024 20:23 utc | 88
Posted by: b | May 3 2024 16:53 utc | 54
An interesting footnote/part of the above article referenced:
"The second reason is Macron’s anger at having French troops, almost all from the Legion, getting kicked out of Sahelian Africa and replaced by Russians. Control of Francophone Africa, and the riches it provides to French politicians, has been broken by the revolt and revolution in Africa and a decisive tilt to Russia, either directly or through PMC Wagner (the Wagner Group) now clearly under Putin’s direct control. This “humiliation” is felt in the Élysée Palace and particularly by Macron who, his opponents says, has lost France’s influence and harmed France’s overseas mining and business interests.
A particular blow is in Niger, an important supplier of uranium to France. France gets 70 percent of its electrical power from nuclear power generators. Global uranium supplies are tightening and prices rising. With Russia and Kazakhstan, along with Niger, on the top of the heap in terms of supplying uranium for nuclear reactors, France has a home economic security problem. The US decision to ban Russian uranium (but probably not realistically in the next few years), the Russians could deal a serious blow to France and the United States by cutting off supplies.
Given the risk of losing access to uranium, or at least enough of it to supply France’s reactors, Macron has to hope that his troop deployments to Ukraine won’t trigger a Russian embargo on sales to France."
Posted by: horseguards | May 3 2024 20:24 utc | 89
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 3 2024 20:18 utc | 86
It was a LMAO moment when Blinken said that investors are showing huge interest and excitement in investing in Ukraine.
Maybe Wall Street can make some management fees, but that's about it. Wall Street is going to need all the help they can get when bank balance sheets start blowing up (just today news told us largest US banks have $7.2 trillion 'hidden' liabilities, similar which resulted the 2008 GFC).
Posted by: unimperator | May 3 2024 20:25 utc | 90
Ukraine Weekly Update, May 3rd, 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-210
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | May 3 2024 18:07 utc | 61
I gave it a like, which I always do when I remember to read your page, but I as well say "thank you" for your contributions.
Posted by: Babel-17 | May 3 2024 20:27 utc | 91
Latest Dima video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5M2zhCtO4iU
No significant territory changes.
Bunch of discussion of geolocated confirmations versus Telegram channel rumor based changes. Note that Dima actually claims to show "both". Which I have seen from him before and it's confusing (not clear his degree of certainty...also he'll sort of temporarily red out an area, but it's not really changing his map, but for discussion and the next day, it's not there).
Posted by: Anonymous | May 3 2024 20:33 utc | 92
Posted by: Anonymous | May 3 2024 20:23 utc | 87
Things we can check for wider evidence of attrition:
- Ukrainian imports of electrical power
- Liquidity of Ukrainian government bonds
- Quantities of operational Patriot systems
- Levels of Ukraine’s national gold reserves (Oopsie!)
- The time taken to extinguish large fires at ammunition supply depots
- The ability to mount a counter-offensive
A few items for you to check, hope this helps...
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 3 2024 20:34 utc | 93
To eliminate those troops before additional ones get deployed would probably be the least violent way to end that nonsense.
Posted by: b | May 3 2024 16:53 utc | 54--
As I recall, when you enter the French Foreign Legion, you are then considered to be dead, expendable. It appears Macron wants them to honor the terms of their contract--to go and die.
Scott Ritter's wife is from Georgia and his daughter did a project there for USAID and Scott has a very clear view of the CIA color revolution currently going on there. Here is is the conversation Scott had with Garland Nixon yesterday.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iJygjG9CKTI
Posted by: Richard L | May 3 2024 21:11 utc | 95
Posted by: b | May 3 2024 16:53 utc | 54
Posted by: karlof1 | May 3 2024 20:55 utc | 93
Someone reported that already 100 body bags arrived in Chateauroux airport, with another 100 wounded.
Légion étrangère, as the name says it, are not French soldiers, but foreign. Obviously they are not getting the same treatment and publicity as regurlar soldiers like those who died in Mali (operation barkhane).
Posted by: Naive | May 3 2024 21:13 utc | 96
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 3 2024 20:34 utc | 92
It is not useful to reply to an ukronazi supporter. He is here to spoil the thread.
Posted by: Naive | May 3 2024 21:16 utc | 97
To all Napoelons here. On the war of attrition. This is from UA info channel ZeRada.
⚡️🇺🇦⚡️ The Ministry of Defense has published a list of diseases with which Ukrainians are considered fit for military service.
Among the diseases with which you are suitable for the front:
- chronic viral hepatitis with minor impairment of liver function, as well as chronic viral hepatitis without impairment of liver function;
- mild diabetes mellitus
; - diseases of the thyroid gland with mild thyrotoxicosis (mild neurosis-like symptoms, decreased tolerance to physical activity, tachycardia with a pulse rate of up to 100 beats per minute);
- cancer in the phase of long-term stable remission after specific treatment;
- disease caused by HIV (stable) or asymptomatic carriage of HIV, with immune compensation;
- residual changes after cured tuberculosis of various localizations;
- syphilis , gonococcal infection and other sexually transmitted infectious diseases after treatment;
- slowly progressing and non-progressive blood diseases with minor dysfunctions and rare exacerbations;
- mild mental disorders with recovery;
- pregnant women and women who have given birth , if pregnancy and the postpartum period proceed without complications.
Students will go to the TCC with the following diseases:
- chronic viral hepatitis with moderate dysfunction ;
- moderate diabetes mellitus ;
- thyrotoxicosis and thyroid diseases with moderate hypothyroidism ;
- conditions after radical surgical treatment of the primary tumor ; cancer of the lower lip, skin cancer ;
- slowly progressing and non-progressive cancer with moderate and minor dysfunction of the hematopoietic system and infrequent exacerbations;
- a disease caused by HIV with immune subcompensation ;
- clinically cured tuberculosis ;
- congenital developmental defects with moderate functional impairment, including heart defects with heart failure of the first degree, absence of one kidney ;
- slowly progressing blood diseaseswith moderate dysfunction and frequent exacerbations;
- mild mental manifestations of psychosis and other mental disorders due to injuries, brain tumors, epilepsy, encephalitis, meningitis, brain syphilis;
- mild mental retardation ;
- acute polymorphic psychotic disorder without symptoms of schizophrenia, mild forms of bipolar affective disorder with infrequent attacks;
- moderately severe, long-term or repeated neurotic disorders , moderate PTSD , moderate stress anxiety-depressive disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder , which, despite pathogenetic treatment, persist and prevent individuals from performing military service duties ;
- moderately expressed forms of disorders and pathological personality development with moderately expressed persistent emotional-volitional affective breakdowns , as well as mental infantilism .
Not only are our TCC people already cruel and inadequate, but now there will also be officially confirmed psychopaths, OCD sufferers, the mentally retarded and infantiles.
Posted by: Josef Schweik | May 3 2024 21:45 utc | 98
b - thanks for the stephen bryen article.. i like @ horseguards | May 3 2024 20:24 utc | 88 add on.. i think that makes a ton of sense here..
@ bevin | May 3 2024 20:10 utc | 84
berneir is the only candidate to openly state he wants canada out of nato... that is the green light right there as i see it.. none of the others will go near saying anything like that...
Posted by: james | May 3 2024 21:46 utc | 99
Posted by: Josef Schweik | May 3 2024 21:45 utc | 97
Easy, they are implementing the Nietzschean receipts.
Posted by: Naive | May 3 2024 21:48 utc | 100
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We might see the RUAF "blooming a flower" over Ocheretyne but more to secure some lines than really conquering ground North and South. Nieu-York will be just one more pinning point for the UAF ... another meat-grinder.
The logical advance would be going further West to cut AFU supply lines. The key logistic key point of the moment is not the Kersh bridge, it's Pokrovsk. (Just look at all those juicy roads and rails.)
Posted by: Savonarole | May 3 2024 8:24 utc | 1