On May 11 I had analyzed the Russian move towards Kharkiv and concluded that it was designed to create a 'sanitary zone' along the boarder, not to take Kharkiv:
Thus the Kharkiv offensive seems designed to create a buffer zone, maybe 6 miles / 10 kilometers deep, on Ukrainian land along the norther border with Russia. That it diverts Ukrainian forces from elsewhere and positions them in mostly open land for their eventual destruction is just a welcome side effect.
In a recent press conference President Putin of Russia confirmed this:
As far as the developments in the Kharkov sector are concerned, they are also to blame for these, because they shelled and, regrettably, continue to shell residential areas in border territories [of Russia], including Belgorod. Civilians are dying there, it’s clear for everyone. They fire missiles right at the city centre, at residential areas. I said publicly that if this continues, we will be forced to create a security zone, a sanitary zone. And this is what we are doing today.
As for [the seizure of] Kharkov, there are no such plans for now.
The Russian Kharkiv incursion is a direct consequence of Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilians.
Likewise is the recent Russian destruction of electrical power generation stations in Ukraine a direct consequence of Ukrainian attacks on Russia refining facilities. As the Russian daily report on its operation in Ukraine noted on May 8:
In response to the Kiev regime's attempt to damage Russian power facilities, the Russian Armed Forces launched a long-range high-precision group strike by sea- and air-based missiles, the Kinzhal aeroballistic hypersonic missile system, unmanned aerial vehicles at power facilities, as well as enterprises of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.
The goal of the strike has been achieved. All the assigned targets have been engaged.
Ukraine has lost some eight gigawatt of generating power and had to start rolling blackouts:
Since March, five waves of missile attacks have resulted in the “complete destruction” of the power stations from the DTEK private energy supplier, which produces 20 percent of the country’s electrical output, CEO Maksym Timchenko said in a Zoom briefing with journalists on Tuesday.
The last attack, on May 8, was particularly devastating, he said, because all of the missiles reached their targets, unimpeded by air defense, knocking out three more power stations.
…
The missile campaign of the last weeks has caused $1 billion worth of damage to the energy infrastructure, Energy Minister German Galushchenko said at the beginning of the month on Ukrainian television.
Despite such negative consequences Ukrainian attacks on infrastructure in Russia continue. In consequence it will soon have even less electric energy to distribute.
The Ukrainian leadership fails to learn that such actions have very damaging consequences.
It is now asking the U.S. to lift restrictions on U.S. delivered weapons so it can use them against Russian towns and cities.
During his recent visit in Kiev Secretary of State Anthony Blinken seemed to agree to that:
In a visit to Kyiv on Wednesday, May 15, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken hinted that Ukrainian forces could strike Russian territory with weapons supplied by the US, for the first time since the Russian invasion in 2022. "We have not encouraged or enabled strikes outside of Ukraine, but ultimately Ukraine has to make decisions for itself about how it's going to conduct this war," said Blinken, opening up the possibility of Western military materiel being used against Russian units located beyond Ukraine's borders.
Ukraine will inevitably use those longer range weapons to target Russian civilians. Russia will inevitably hit back by much stronger means.
Ukraine may hope for few public relation points from committing such acts but is a sure way to totally ruin the country.
Today the Washington Post and the New York Times have longer pieces on the success of the Russian campaign towards Kharkiv. They both conclude that Ukraine, despite knowing that the attack was coming, had not prepared for it.
Second Russian invasion of Kharkiv caught Ukraine unprepared (archived) – Washington Post
Russia’s new offensive across Ukraine’s northeastern border had been expected for months — yet it still surprised the Ukrainian soldiers stationed there to defend against it.
An interesting detail:
[The drone unit's] Starlink devices — satellite internet the Ukrainian military relies on for basic communication — failed, the first time it was knocked out completely for them since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.
“We were left at a certain point completely blind,” said a drone unit commander in the brigade. The Post agreed to identify him by his call sign, Artist, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol.
Blocking Starlink over the front when needed is a new Russian capability that we will come to see more often.
Russians Poured Over Ukraine’s Border. There Was Little to Stop Them. (archived) – New York Times
Ukraine’s top officials appeared to be taking the danger seriously, with President Volodymyr Zelenksy making a highly choreographed visit to the fortifications around Kharkiv on April 9.
“We have to be prepared,” Mr. Zelenksy said. “And Russians must see that we are ready to defend ourselves. And our people must understand that Ukraine is prepared in case the enemy tries to attack.”
Those preparations did little to blunt the Russian attack.
The fortifications, except for a few showpieces used for Zelenski's PR stunt, were never build even while money was paid for them:
Ms. Sykhina said that she had seen concrete blocks and machinery being moved along a road in front of her house, in what she believed were preparations for fortification.
“But in fact, from what I know, nothing was built,” Ms. Sykhina said.
Another piece of interest is about the increasingly authoritarian dictatorship in Ukraine that is run out of one man's office:
Zelensky’s chief aide flexes power, irks critics — and makes no apologies (archived) – Washington Post
Andriy Yermak, a former lawyer and film producer who runs Volodymyr Zelensky’s wartime presidential office, is arguably the most powerful chief of staff in Ukraine’s history.
In interviews with more than a dozen current and former Ukrainian officials and lawmakers, foreign diplomats and others who know Yermak or work with him, even his supporters acknowledged that he wields unusually broad authority, over governance and external communication. Some said he even controls which other officials are allowed to travel abroad and when — a detail on which his office declined to comment.
Recently, critics say, as Zelensky’s circle of advisers has tightened, Yermak has sidelined the Foreign Ministry, interfered in military decisions and brokered key deals with partners, including the United States — a task they argue should be handled by the president.
…
Yermak has direct lines to the most powerful people in Washington, including the national security adviser, Jake Sullivan. “We are checking in on a very regular basis,” Sullivan said of Yermak during a visit to Kyiv in March. Sullivan’s office did not respond to multiple requests for further comment.
Yermak is an entertainment lawyer and film producer without any qualification for the position he is now in.
Judging from the daily reports the Russian Ministry of Defense puts out the current losses on the Ukrainian side are pretty horrific. Today's report lists 30 destroyed Ukrainian artillery systems, 15 tracked vehicles and 1,525 Ukrainian casualties. These numbers are now regularly far higher than we have seen in previous months.
In an interview with AFP Zelenski laments that some in the West are looking for peace:
The 46-year-old former comedian wore one of his trademark khaki outfits for the interview in Kyiv — his first with foreign media since the start of Russia's Kharkiv region offensive.
"We want the war to end with a fair peace for us," while "the West wants the war to end. Period. As soon as possible. And for them, this is a fair peace," he said.
As long as the money from the West is flowing. and as long no one is challenging it, the Zelenski/Yermak team will not make any efforts to end the war.
