Ukraine SitRep: Kharkiv Incursion Forensics - Attacks On Russia And Russian Revenge
On May 11 I had analyzed the Russian move towards Kharkiv and concluded that it was designed to create a 'sanitary zone' along the boarder, not to take Kharkiv:
Thus the Kharkiv offensive seems designed to create a buffer zone, maybe 6 miles / 10 kilometers deep, on Ukrainian land along the norther border with Russia. That it diverts Ukrainian forces from elsewhere and positions them in mostly open land for their eventual destruction is just a welcome side effect.
In a recent press conference President Putin of Russia confirmed this:
As far as the developments in the Kharkov sector are concerned, they are also to blame for these, because they shelled and, regrettably, continue to shell residential areas in border territories [of Russia], including Belgorod. Civilians are dying there, it’s clear for everyone. They fire missiles right at the city centre, at residential areas. I said publicly that if this continues, we will be forced to create a security zone, a sanitary zone. And this is what we are doing today.As for [the seizure of] Kharkov, there are no such plans for now.
The Russian Kharkiv incursion is a direct consequence of Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilians.
Likewise is the recent Russian destruction of electrical power generation stations in Ukraine a direct consequence of Ukrainian attacks on Russia refining facilities. As the Russian daily report on its operation in Ukraine noted on May 8:
In response to the Kiev regime's attempt to damage Russian power facilities, the Russian Armed Forces launched a long-range high-precision group strike by sea- and air-based missiles, the Kinzhal aeroballistic hypersonic missile system, unmanned aerial vehicles at power facilities, as well as enterprises of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.The goal of the strike has been achieved. All the assigned targets have been engaged.
Ukraine has lost some eight gigawatt of generating power and had to start rolling blackouts:
Since March, five waves of missile attacks have resulted in the “complete destruction” of the power stations from the DTEK private energy supplier, which produces 20 percent of the country’s electrical output, CEO Maksym Timchenko said in a Zoom briefing with journalists on Tuesday.The last attack, on May 8, was particularly devastating, he said, because all of the missiles reached their targets, unimpeded by air defense, knocking out three more power stations.
...
The missile campaign of the last weeks has caused $1 billion worth of damage to the energy infrastructure, Energy Minister German Galushchenko said at the beginning of the month on Ukrainian television.
Despite such negative consequences Ukrainian attacks on infrastructure in Russia continue. In consequence it will soon have even less electric energy to distribute.
The Ukrainian leadership fails to learn that such actions have very damaging consequences.
It is now asking the U.S. to lift restrictions on U.S. delivered weapons so it can use them against Russian towns and cities.
During his recent visit in Kiev Secretary of State Anthony Blinken seemed to agree to that:
In a visit to Kyiv on Wednesday, May 15, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken hinted that Ukrainian forces could strike Russian territory with weapons supplied by the US, for the first time since the Russian invasion in 2022. "We have not encouraged or enabled strikes outside of Ukraine, but ultimately Ukraine has to make decisions for itself about how it's going to conduct this war," said Blinken, opening up the possibility of Western military materiel being used against Russian units located beyond Ukraine's borders.
Ukraine will inevitably use those longer range weapons to target Russian civilians. Russia will inevitably hit back by much stronger means.
Ukraine may hope for few public relation points from committing such acts but is a sure way to totally ruin the country.
Today the Washington Post and the New York Times have longer pieces on the success of the Russian campaign towards Kharkiv. They both conclude that Ukraine, despite knowing that the attack was coming, had not prepared for it.
Second Russian invasion of Kharkiv caught Ukraine unprepared (archived) - Washington Post
Russia’s new offensive across Ukraine’s northeastern border had been expected for months — yet it still surprised the Ukrainian soldiers stationed there to defend against it.
An interesting detail:
[The drone unit's] Starlink devices — satellite internet the Ukrainian military relies on for basic communication — failed, the first time it was knocked out completely for them since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.“We were left at a certain point completely blind,” said a drone unit commander in the brigade. The Post agreed to identify him by his call sign, Artist, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol.
Blocking Starlink over the front when needed is a new Russian capability that we will come to see more often.
Russians Poured Over Ukraine’s Border. There Was Little to Stop Them. (archived) - New York Times
Ukraine’s top officials appeared to be taking the danger seriously, with President Volodymyr Zelenksy making a highly choreographed visit to the fortifications around Kharkiv on April 9.“We have to be prepared,” Mr. Zelenksy said. “And Russians must see that we are ready to defend ourselves. And our people must understand that Ukraine is prepared in case the enemy tries to attack.”
Those preparations did little to blunt the Russian attack.
The fortifications, except for a few showpieces used for Zelenski's PR stunt, were never build even while money was paid for them:
Ms. Sykhina said that she had seen concrete blocks and machinery being moved along a road in front of her house, in what she believed were preparations for fortification.“But in fact, from what I know, nothing was built,” Ms. Sykhina said.
Another piece of interest is about the increasingly authoritarian dictatorship in Ukraine that is run out of one man's office:
Zelensky’s chief aide flexes power, irks critics — and makes no apologies (archived) - Washington Post
Andriy Yermak, a former lawyer and film producer who runs Volodymyr Zelensky’s wartime presidential office, is arguably the most powerful chief of staff in Ukraine’s history.
In interviews with more than a dozen current and former Ukrainian officials and lawmakers, foreign diplomats and others who know Yermak or work with him, even his supporters acknowledged that he wields unusually broad authority, over governance and external communication. Some said he even controls which other officials are allowed to travel abroad and when — a detail on which his office declined to comment.Recently, critics say, as Zelensky’s circle of advisers has tightened, Yermak has sidelined the Foreign Ministry, interfered in military decisions and brokered key deals with partners, including the United States — a task they argue should be handled by the president.
...
Yermak has direct lines to the most powerful people in Washington, including the national security adviser, Jake Sullivan. “We are checking in on a very regular basis,” Sullivan said of Yermak during a visit to Kyiv in March. Sullivan’s office did not respond to multiple requests for further comment.
Yermak is an entertainment lawyer and film producer without any qualification for the position he is now in.
Judging from the daily reports the Russian Ministry of Defense puts out the current losses on the Ukrainian side are pretty horrific. Today's report lists 30 destroyed Ukrainian artillery systems, 15 tracked vehicles and 1,525 Ukrainian casualties. These numbers are now regularly far higher than we have seen in previous months.
In an interview with AFP Zelenski laments that some in the West are looking for peace:
The 46-year-old former comedian wore one of his trademark khaki outfits for the interview in Kyiv -- his first with foreign media since the start of Russia's Kharkiv region offensive."We want the war to end with a fair peace for us," while "the West wants the war to end. Period. As soon as possible. And for them, this is a fair peace," he said.
As long as the money from the West is flowing. and as long no one is challenging it, the Zelenski/Yermak team will not make any efforts to end the war.
Posted by b on May 18, 2024 at 15:03 UTC | Permalink
next page »Doesn't saying it openly will not removed ambiguity for Ukrainans?
This is the sign the Putin is getting old and soft.
China, will not give weapons to Russia so that they can end up in India or Iran. So I wonder what prompted him to sharing strategy on the World Stage.
Posted by: Nasir | May 18 2024 15:30 utc | 2
thanks b...
"The Ukrainian leadership fails to learn that such actions have very damaging consequences." i think it is the west that fails to learn that such actions have very damaging consequences - or - that is what they want for ukraine... so yeah, the place is run out of one office which takes orders from uk/usa and so it goes.... zelensky is a useful tool/idiot...
Posted by: james | May 18 2024 15:31 utc | 3
Don't accuse others of trolling or other names: unless you can prove it.
Posted by: Nasir | May 18 2024 15:22 utc | 1
Me thinks the lady doth protest too much! When someone begins denouncing an accusation before it's actually been made, it's is classically suspicious, Nasir.
But, how about B's post? Any thoughts on that? Do you think the Ukronazi regime has a hope in hell at this point?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | May 18 2024 15:40 utc | 4
Posted by: Nasir | May 18 2024 15:22 utc | 1
Don't tell me what to do.
Posted by: Passerby | May 18 2024 15:42 utc | 5
Them Rooskies want to keep the NATO off balance, and them Rooskies want to have as few casualties as possible, and them Rooskies do NOT want to kill anyone or break anything that they don't have to.
Them Rooskies are trying to have good moral character. This is an article of their religion. The American Sleeping Prophet Edgar Casey said: there are two ways of changing fate from worse to better, one is the power of prayer, and the other is good moral character. Edgar also said, during the days there was the Soviet Union but there was no Russia, : "from Russia will come the light of the world" (meaning Putin)
"Ukraine" is a word in the Russian language.
Eastern Ukraine (Donbass) and Southern Ukraine (Crimea) will win, with as few casualties and destruction as possible! Western Ukraine (Polish Lithuania Commonwealth and Galitia) will lose, and more importantly will get killed off to the point of extinction. So, to say "Ukraine will win" is a correct statement, (the Russian borderlands will continue to exist) but it is the opposite of what the NATO side wants.
Expect the unexpected!
Posted by: Hot Carl | May 18 2024 15:43 utc | 6
This is the sign the Putin is getting old and soft.
China, will not give weapons to Russia so that they can end up in India or Iran. So I wonder what prompted him to sharing strategy on the World Stage.
Posted by: Nasir | May 18 2024 15:30 utc | 2
And there's the confirmation! Nadir is a poison dwarf! ...and not a very talented one. Do not touch, barflies!
What's a matter Nadir? Can't stand watching Russia/China put "old and soft" US imperialism in it's place?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | May 18 2024 15:43 utc | 7
Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (for the period from 11 to 17 May 2024)
From May 11 to 17, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out 28 group strikes with precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles, as a result of which: command posts, military airfield infrastructure facilities, air defense systems, arsenals, fuel bases of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as workshops for the production and storage of unmanned boats and attack UAVs were hit.
The points of temporary deployment of units of nationalist formations and foreign mercenaries were also affected.
During the week, units of the North group of forces, as a result of active actions, liberated 12 settlements in the Kharkiv region: Borisovka, Bugrovatka, Gatyshche, Glubokoe, Krasnoe, Lukyants, Morokhovets, Ogurtsovo, Oleinikovo, Pletenevka, Dusty, Strelechye and continue to advance into the depth of the enemy's defense.
They defeated the manpower and equipment of five brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, four brigades of the Air Defense and the 15th border detachment of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Veseloye, Volchansk, Dergachi, Neskuchnoye, Krasnoe and Liptsy in the Kharkiv region. 21 counterattacks of the AFU assault groups were repelled in the areas of the settlements of Glubokoe, Tikhoe and Staritsa in the Kharkiv region.
Enemy losses amounted to 1,175 soldiers, 10 tanks, 14 armored combat vehicles, 45 vehicles, 13 MLRS combat vehicles, including six Czech-made Vampire MLRS combat vehicles, 26 field artillery guns, as well as five Buk and Strela-10 SAM combat vehicles.
Units of the Western Group of Troops continued to occupy more advantageous positions and defeated formations of eighteen enemy brigades in the areas of the settlements of Artemovka, Makeyevka of the Luhansk People's Republic, Kislovka, Sinkovka of the Kharkiv region, Yampolovka, Krasny Liman and Torskoye of the Donetsk People's Republic.
They repelled 37 counterattacks by assault groups of eight brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as two brigades of the National Guard in the areas of settlements: Chervonaya Dibrova, Novoegorovka, Stelmakhovka, Nevskoye of the Luhansk People's Republic, Berestovoye, Kislovka and Olshana of the Kharkiv region.
The enemy's losses amounted to 960 soldiers, two tanks, nine armored combat vehicles, 24 vehicles, four MLRS Grad and Willow combat vehicles, 25 field artillery guns, of which five were manufactured by the United States. In addition, two field ammunition depots were destroyed.
The units of the Southern Group of Troops continued to advance into the depth of the enemy's defense during the conduct of active hostilities. They defeated the manpower and equipment of six assault, ten mechanized brigades and seven air defense brigades in the areas of the settlements of Andreevka, Antonovka, Georgievka, Grigorovka, Kleshcheyevka, Kurdyumovka, Paraskovievka and Novomikhailovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.
They repelled nine counterattacks by assault units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Belogorovka of the Luhansk People's Republic, Razdolovka, Krasnoe, Disputable and Chas Yar of the Donetsk People's Republic.
In a week, the enemy lost up to 3,725 soldiers, eight tanks, including five Leopard-2A1 manufactured by Germany, 13 armored combat vehicles, 55 vehicles, a Grad MLRS combat vehicle, 47 field artillery guns, of which 22 were foreign-made. Three Nota and Bukovel-AD electronic warfare stations, two US-made AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery warfare stations and 16 field ammunition depots were also destroyed.
Units of the Center group of forces, as a result of successful actions, liberated the settlement of Keramik of the Donetsk People's Republic, improved the situation along the front edge and defeated formations of 14 brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard in the areas of the settlements of Novoaleksandrovka, Yevgenovka, Karlovka and Rozovka of the Donetsk People's Republic.
They repelled 59 counterattacks by enemy assault groups in the areas of the settlements of Arkhangelskoye, Semenovka, Ocheretino, Solovyovo, Novgorodskoye, Umanskoye, Netailovo and Berdych of the Donetsk People's Republic.
During the week, the AFU lost up to 2,475 servicemen in this area, four tanks, including one Abrams made by the United States, 20 armored combat vehicles, 27 vehicles, and a Croatian-made MLRS RAK-SA-12 combat vehicle. In addition, during the counter-battery struggle, 23 field artillery guns were hit, of which five Paladin self-propelled guns and three M777 howitzers manufactured by the United States.
The units of the Vostok group of forces improved the tactical situation, and also defeated the formations of three brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and three brigades of the defense Forces in the areas of the settlements of Ugledar, Velikaya Novoselka, Vodiane, Vladimirovka of the Donetsk People's Republic, Chervonoye and Dorozhnyanka of the Zaporozhye region.
They repelled two counterattacks by assault groups of the 123rd Air Defense Brigade and the 21st Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Staromayorskoye and Urozhodnoye of the Donetsk People's Republic.
The enemy's losses amounted to up to 965 servicemen, a tank, nine armored combat vehicles, 28 vehicles, a Grad MLRS combat vehicle and two Strela-10 SAM combat vehicles.
During the counter-battery struggle, 20 field artillery guns were hit, of which four Polish Krab self-propelled guns and four M777 howitzers manufactured by the United States.
As a result of active actions, units of the Dnepr group of troops liberated the settlement of Rabodino in the Zaporozhye region, and also defeated the manpower and equipment of two brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 35th Marine Brigade, three defense brigades, as well as three National Guard brigades in the areas of the settlements of Orekhov, Verbovoye, Nesteryanka, Malaya Tokmachka of the Zaporozhye region, Nikopol, Kapulovka, Dnipropetrovsk region, Zolotaya Balka and Ivanovka, Kherson region.
The enemy lost up to 265 servicemen, two armored combat vehicles, 15 vehicles, a Czech-made Vampire MLRS combat vehicle, 35 field artillery guns, including 14 M777 howitzers manufactured by the United States, as well as a self-propelled Buk air defense system.
Missile forces, artillery and UAVs of the groups of troops destroyed four Mi-24 helicopters at the helipad during the week, as well as 40 unmanned boats at the storage warehouse.
In addition, the following were hit: a division of the Patriot air defense system manufactured by the United States in a combat position, ammunition depots, fuel and aviation equipment in the parking lots of five military airfields.
Aviation and air defense equipment shot down during the week: six MiG-29 and one Su-27 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force, 31 ATACAMS operational and tactical missiles manufactured in the USA and Tochka-U, 31 guided Hammer bombs manufactured in France, 15 HARM anti-radar missiles manufactured in the USA, 199 HIMARS, Vampire rockets,"Grad" and "Alder", as well as 329 UAVs.
In the last 24 hours alone, 123 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs have been shot down over the territory of Crimea and the Black Sea coast of the Krasnodar Territory.
The forces of the Black Sea Fleet destroyed 25 Ukrainian unmanned boats in the Black Sea over the past day.
During the week, 63 Ukrainian servicemen surrendered on the line of contact, 48 of whom were in the area of responsibility of the North group of forces.
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 601 aircraft, 274 helicopters, 24234 unmanned aerial vehicles, 522 anti-aircraft missile systems, 16058 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1303 multiple rocket launchers, 9635 field artillery and mortars, as well as 21763 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.
Posted by: rumod report | May 18 2024 15:45 utc | 8
Stratcult, short and sweet, baby?
"There are sound, if deplorable, reasons why U.S. imperialists like Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski always feared the historical alignment of Russia and China as portending disaster… disaster, that is, for U.S. imperialism."
Both figures now dead, just like all trace of sanity in the imperialist ruling class of the west. Who the gods make mad...!
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | May 18 2024 15:56 utc | 9
Nasir, "trolling" is a general term to describe a whole lot of online misbehaviours that annoy or distract other users. There is no single definition, nor even agreement about the etymology. (Almost certainly the fishing one is correct and the little-quaint man homunculus under-a-bridge one is incorrect.) The notion of "proving" trolling is absurd. The most you can achieve is a sort of broad consensus. Even by starting comments in a new post by a blog host with a "commend", a guest commenter could be viewed as trolling.
Posted by: petra | May 18 2024 15:57 utc | 10
Nasir, "trolling" is a general term to describe a whole lot of online misbehaviours that annoy or distract other users. There is no single definition, nor even agreement about the etymology. (Almost certainly the fishing one is correct and the little-quaint man homunculus under-a-bridge one is incorrect.) The notion of "proving" trolling is absurd. The most you can achieve is a sort of broad consensus. Even by starting comments in a new post by a blog host with a "commend", a guest commenter could be viewed as trolling.
Posted by: petra | May 18 2024 15:57 utc | 10
Meet Petra the lady troll.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | May 18 2024 16:01 utc | 12
My guess is these two are tag teaming today. Let's have a test...
So, what are your thoughts on B's post, "Petra"?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | May 18 2024 16:03 utc | 13
This is the sign the Putin is getting old and soft.
Posted by: Nasir | May 18 2024 15:30 utc | 2
Someone interested in serious conversation would try to find reasons for Putin, or any other world leader, doing what they do or try to do with a realpolitik analysis.
A troll simply asserts pop-psychology or assigns malevolent intentions to the target of their ire.
Posted by: UWDude | May 18 2024 16:04 utc | 14
if that ain't trolling, i don't know what is and look how many got sucked into responding?? congrats... a derailed thread out of the gate..
Posted by: james | May 18 2024 16:12 utc | 15
re Nasir | May 18 2024 15:22 utc | 1
Troll ipse loquitur.
Posted by: malenkov | May 18 2024 16:13 utc | 16
Posted by: Aleph_Null | May 18 2024 16:15 utc | 17
Note that Putin didn’t say Russia would never take Kharkov. He said at this moment the point of the offensive is a buffer zone. He did not say it is only a buffer zone. Secondary benefits may include threatening Izium from the north, cutting off Kupyansk and the whole area from resupply out of Kharkov. All Putin really said is that for the time being it is not worth discussing russian troops storming Kharkov.
He likely said it as an antidote to breathless western speculation. It won’t be heard in the west but it being said in China and publicly will be understood everywhere else. And that is the primary audience for Russia “infowar” operations.
Posted by: Lex | May 18 2024 16:15 utc | 18
Someone interested in serious conversation would try to find reasons for Putin, or any other world leader, doing what they do or try to do with a realpolitik analysis.
A troll simply asserts pop-psychology or assigns malevolent intentions to the target of their ire.
Posted by: UWDude | May 18 2024 16:04 utc | 14
Well said. Now, back to our regularly scheduled program...
Here's Putin:
"Russian and Chinese are brothers forever." I am sure that it is in this brotherly spirit that we will continue to strengthen the harmonious Russian-Chinese partnership.
We will continue to act in unison for the sake of successful development of the two countries, prosperity of the two peoples, and increasing the authority and influence of Russia and China in the world. Our cooperation has unlimited opportunities and prospects. We are able to overcome any obstacles and solve the most ambitious tasks."
Who can doubt them at this stage of imperialist decline?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | May 18 2024 16:17 utc | 19
/cheep
A fun challenge I heard was trying to take dictum written in the negative, like is well seen in Biblical commandments, and turn it into a positive form that espouses encouragement! :) See if you do the same with b's rules here. You might find turning your perspective upside-down brings out a subconscious turn towards the positive! (:
So, "don't accuse, call names, etc." can be turned around into: "Thank posters for posts you like and wish to encourage more such contributions," "It's OK to playful tease each other with irony, yet make an effort to return with respect," etc. (=
It's a useful subconscious exercise to avoid "Don't Think of an Elephant" mental spiral that fixates on problems and out-groups. Instead it invites you to think of solutions, contributions, and cross-boundary commonalities! (;
/cheep cheep
Posted by: titmouse | May 18 2024 16:19 utc | 20
you're having fun dropping your nuggets of wisdom titmouse and i like that..
Posted by: james | May 18 2024 16:34 utc | 21
Little background on how Yermak attained his all powerful position.
"In February 2020, under pressure from both the United States and the IMF, Zelensky began to cut ties with Kolomoisky when he replaced his then Chief of Staff Andriy Bohdan with Andriy Yermak, who remains in the position to this day."
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2024/05/18/oemy-m18.html
Again, this site is has had a bizarre line on the war from the outset, so take with a grain of salt. One bit I noticed is they claim US imperialism was not sure of Zelinsky at first, thinking he might be a peace candidate. Imo the guy was installed by the same imperialism from the outset. Yermak was probably added to make sure he stayed perfectly in line with Nuland's wishes.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | May 18 2024 16:35 utc | 22
As long as the money from the West is flowing. and as long no one is challenging it, the Zelenski/Yermak team will not make any efforts to end the war.
That's the thing. All this time we have not really seen any challenge to continue fighting from the Ukrainian public. That debunks the narrative this website tries to push that the West is forcing Ukraine to keep fighting.
Posted by: UWDude | May 18 2024 16:04 utc | 14
A troll simply asserts pop-psychology or assigns malevolent intentions to the target of their ire.
Well, then, has "pop psychology" been the excuse you've been using to explain away your malevolent comments on Trans people?
Posted by: Inka | May 18 2024 16:35 utc | 23
No offense to anyone or our host, but it would appear, other than kill thousands of Ukrainians while their global masters strut preen play and dance the night away, all Russia has is revenge. It, for all intents and purposes has no strategic ability to end the conflict in the Ukraine other than mass death. Not sure if that's something to be proud of I guess that's the down side of attrition unless unbridled mass death is yer thing.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 18 2024 16:39 utc | 24
A troll simply asserts pop-psychology or assigns malevolent intentions to the target of their ire.
Well, then, has "pop psychology" been the excuse you've been using to explain away your malevolent comments on Trans people?
Posted by: Inka | May 18 2024 16:35 utc | 23
Behold our old friend inky the dwarf arrives to valiantly take up the defense of Nasir and Petra!
And what does he have to tell us, you ask? Well, it's not about foreign affairs, but, you guessed it, fucking trans folks!
Boy, the trolls are on fire this morning. Their activity seems curiously inversely proportional to the Ukronazis success on the battlefield.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | May 18 2024 16:41 utc | 25
Putin tried to take three cities during the start of the war: Kyiv, Kherson,Kharkiv — he failed.
Vlad went in light to Kyiv, lost that battle and had to abandon the other two cities. Russia is proving again they are like the Chicago Bears … great defense, no offense.
The grave error Putin made was sending forces south into Kyiv. They should have marched East of the Dnipro, avoided Kyiv and linked up with southern troops to close the pincer on the east bank and divide Ukraine. After all, Russia enjoys a geographical pincer around Ukraine.
This failure of Russia to take advantage of their natural boarder pincer (Close the Cauldron) reminds me of the 1914 debacle in Prussia, whose borders also created a natural pincer for Russia, yet the disorganized Russian forces were routed.
Now, like in 1914, we have years of pointless war to look forward to. Yet who knows, maybe another Lenin will arise and yank Russia out of this quagmire.
Posted by: Napoleon | May 18 2024 16:51 utc | 26
Argreed b, it was most definitely an 'interesting thing' that jumped out of the Washington Post article & it is worth repeating:
[The drone unit's] Starlink devices — satellite internet the Ukrainian military relies on for basic communication — failed, the first time it was knocked out completely for them since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.
“We were left at a certain point completely blind,” said a drone unit commander in the brigade. The Post agreed to identify him by his call sign, Artist, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol.
I remember in the early days of the Russian intervention in Syria that there was discussion of them casting a several hundred kilometre net resulting in a total communications blackout & I've often wondered why the Starlink system wasn't subject to a similar process.
I'm sure there are numerous reasons as to why the Russians have waited until now to implement a similar strategy in Ukraine.
Having said that, I obviously do not exclude the fact that they may have taken out Starlink at previous points in the SMO & it simply hasn't been reported.
I will be very interested in the thoughts of the more technically minded barflies about this.
Posted by: FakeBelieve | May 18 2024 16:51 utc | 27
I was skeptical about this much anticipated operation to seize Kharkov from the beginning.
First it's not like the Russian to publicize the objectives of any operation. Historically they've been very good at operational secrecy and deceptions. Putting so many resources into laying siege to Kharkov when their main war objective is the liberation of the 2 breakaway Donbas oblasts seemed to me to be a wasted effort.
It makes more sense that this is an operation to create a buffer and spread Ukraine forces thin. They should now threaten Zaporizhia to pull Ukraine forces in the other direction however the main thrust IMO should be Donetsk and Lugansk and complete those objectives before going further.
Posted by: HB_Norica | May 18 2024 16:54 utc | 28
@ Napoleon | May 18 2024 16:51 utc | 26
you'd make a very bad chess player napoleon... you can't distinguish between a feign and a real move..
Posted by: james | May 18 2024 16:54 utc | 29
...while their global masters strut preen play and dance the night away...Your taxes fund Ukies as well. Are you really sure Russia has to adress the very root of the problem, instead of cutting the hand that sways the weapon?
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 18 2024 16:39 utc | 24
Posted by: Poslan1 | May 18 2024 16:55 utc | 30
Adam Tooze today:
"USA has the highest percentage of its population living on the street, but the UK “leads” the developed world in homelessness"
Meanwhile endless billions are sent the to Yermaks abroad to pointlessly slaughter millions. There is no surer sign of Imperialist decline.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | May 18 2024 16:59 utc | 31
Aviation and air defense equipment shot down during the week: six MiG-29 and one Su-27 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force, 31 ATACAMS operational and tactical missiles manufactured in the USA and Tochka-U, 31 guided Hammer bombs manufactured in France, 15 HARM anti-radar missiles manufactured in the USA, 199 HIMARS, Vampire rockets,"Grad" and "Alder", as well as 329 UAVs.
Posted by: rumod report | May 18 2024 15:45 utc | 8
Seems like someone is trying to overcompensate some really bad news elsewhere by shooting a lot of things far away ... any AD defense now will have to find a way to shoot a mass of things at reasonable prices.
Posted by: Hiro Masamune | May 18 2024 16:59 utc | 32
"The Ukrainian leadership fails to learn that such actions have very damaging consequences."
But of course: the Ukrainian 'leadership' (i.e., the western elites) don't care about Ukraine, it's just a patch of dirt that can be used to launch attacks on Russia. So Ukraine knocks out some Russian oil refineries: Russia cares. Russia knocks out a lot of Ukrainian electricity generators: the western elites don't care. You can fire off imported western missiles and drones with portable generators, no problem. And Putin really doesn't want to directly strike his true enemies in the west...
Putin appears to be a smart man and a Russian patriot, but he's gotten himself into a tough and asymmetric situation. His only option is to grind the entire Ukrainian nation into the dirt, which is ugly, and he could wind up being responsible for a devastated country full of people who hate Russians and - give credit where credit is due - can be vicious and inventive in fighting. I don't know where this ends, but in IMHO Putin's biggest challenge for now is not the combat per se, but the shape of the end game.
Posted by: TG | May 18 2024 17:00 utc | 33
you'd make a very bad chess player napoleon... you can't distinguish between a feign and a real move..
Posted by: james | May 18 2024 16:54 utc | 29
Yes, plus @Napoleon overlooks that the Russians early, rapid moves were as much about securing, eliminating or otherwise neutralising various covert research laboratories and bases, as making territorial gains. We can all remember how quickly they took Chernobyl for example, ensuring the security of any nasty stuff there.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 18 2024 17:07 utc | 35
"The 46-year-old former comedian wore one of his trademark khaki outfits for the interview in Kyiv" maybe the AFP article is kind of implying Zelensky is out of his depth as the Ukrainian president. He's not described in Churchillian terms. Maybe the article is preparing Zelensky for his eventual demise.
Posted by: mutantq23 | May 18 2024 17:10 utc | 36
Posted by: Napoleon | May 18 2024 16:51 utc | 26
------------------------------------------------
Don't you worry. The Special Military Operation or SMO for short continues until all goals are achieved.
Namely:-
(a) DeNAZIFICATION
(b) DeMILITARIZATION
Posted by: AI | May 18 2024 17:11 utc | 37
Putin's biggest challenge for now is not the combat per se, but the shape of the end game.
Posted by: TG | May 18 2024 17:00 utc | 33
Hence, "SMO".
And this has always been the biggest challenge. It is why almost all modern wars have strange incongruencies.
Most modern wars are not total wars of displacement and genocide. Of course, there is another thread to discuss the current exception proving the rule.
China, could take Taiwan tomorrow. Easy.
Why doesn't it? Because they want the jewel, but they have to get it without smashing it. This is why most wars are so complex, have "rules of engagement" etc.
Posted by: UWDude | May 18 2024 17:18 utc | 38
You were correct about the buffer zone but in fairness it was pretty obvious to many except the ukies and their strategic gods!
There's no need to take Kharkov, just go around it. The Russians biggest problem now is logistics, the front has stretched quite a bit in the last week or so and I'd imagine the Russians are going to take their time to allow their supports keep up with the frontline.
This could grind on for a few more months at this rate.
Posted by: Eoin Clancy | May 18 2024 17:18 utc | 39
@Posted by: TG | May 18 2024 17:00 utc | 33
Any references to the "Ukrainian leadership" are utterly ridiculous given that we know that it is the US/UK that is running this war, supported by the other US vassals. Without Western arms and Western money Ukraine would be finished within a month or two.
You seem to completely misunderstand the approach of destroying the opponents military so that the nation can be occupied with little real problem, massively reducing the amount of damage. Putin is grinding down the Ukie military, which at some point will collapse and provide little resistance to the taking of the rest of Ukraine. The Western puppets also have less and less legitimacy with the Ukrainian people.
You also seem to be utterly blind to the fact that the population east of the Dniepr and in the South-West are predominantly ethnic Russian/Russian speaking and would be content with peace, a Russian passport, a functioning state focused on the national interest, and Russian living standards. With respect to the North-West, much of its extremist Banderist elements will stream into Europe to cause trouble there with perhaps parts of it given to Poland to "enjoy".
The country will be rebuilt, just as even the devastated Germany was (let's remember there has been no carpet-bombing of major cities by the Russians as the US and UK did in WW2), and the schools, media and society in general stripped of the fascist propaganda so that the next generation can be good, productive, prosperous Russian citizens.
La plupart des français et des européens sont des imbeciles qui croient tout ce que racontent leurs gouvernements. Ils iront à l abattage sans sourciller et sans rechigner. Quand aux ricains c est encore pire, une majorité d analphabètes acculturés juste bon à bouffer des big mac, à se droguer et à pratiquer l homosexualité. Tout cela forme un occident dégénéré, décadent juste bon à consommer du pop corn et des vidéos pornos. Beurk.
Posted by: Dubourg | May 18 2024 17:27 utc | 41
The grave error Putin made was sending forces south into Kyiv. They should have marched East of the Dnipro, avoided Kyiv and linked up with southern troops to close the pincer on the east bank and divide Ukraine. After all, Russia enjoys a geographical pincer around Ukraine.
Posted by: Napoleon | May 18 2024 16:51 utc | 26
You've been reading the 'ol "Russian playbook" again haven't you.
According to the "Russian playbook" the Russians attempted to lay siege to Kharkov and Kiev with a force more the size of a recon in force maneuver than an actual offensive force. This operation failed miserably. That's the story you're going with.
According to the Russians the feint to Kiev was supposed to pin a 60,000 strong Ukrainian force from deploying south while the Russians secured a land route and water source for Crimea. This operation was a total success. this is the story I'm going with.
So just how would your Russian offensive toward Dnipro have worked if those 60,000 Ukrainians were free to stop them? If this attack was coming from the kharkov direction they would have ran right into the teeth of that 60,000 man Ukrainian force.
Posted by: HB_Norica | May 18 2024 17:29 utc | 42
"Aviation and air defense equipment shot down during the week: six MiG-29 and one Su-27 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force, 31 ATACAMS operational and tactical missiles manufactured in the USA and Tochka-U, 31 guided Hammer bombs manufactured in France, 15 HARM anti-radar missiles manufactured in the USA, 199 HIMARS, Vampire rockets,"Grad" and "Alder", as well as 329 UAVs.
rumod report | May 18 2024 15:45 utc | 8
***
Is this a new thing, to menion the origins of weapons in a daily report? (The same thing happens higher up in the report too).
US, Croatian, Czech, Polish, French. => Warnings to "NATO"?
Posted by: Dubourg | May 18 2024 17:27 utc | 41
You were looking for a map, this site has a lot of info and very good maps, in Russian though. I guess you watched the interview on French TV with Pyotr Tolstoy, I did, made fun of so many pédés in your gov.
https://lostarmour.info/map#map
Posted by: Paco | May 18 2024 17:45 utc | 44
The ability to disable Starlink is very important and only FakeBelieve | May 18 2024 16:51 utc | 27 has commented on that fact. In his follow-up to that citation, b opined:
"Blocking Starlink over the front when needed is a new Russian capability that we will come to see more often."
Yes, I would think that would be a high priority and attempted on a daily basis unless Russian command wants to reserve that ability to specific instances when it wants to make large group moves and thus not allow NATO the opportunity to try and find a solution to its blockage.
Posted by: petra | May 18 2024 15:57 utc | 10
Ever been to a court?!
Yes declaring person a Troll, it is fully defined legally.
It is a libel case.
Posted by: Nasir | May 18 2024 17:54 utc | 46
It is a military maxim that 'no plan survives contact with the enemy.' Any detailed speculation about Russian long-term plans constantly run afoul of this principle. However, we can perceive fundamental strategic/meta-strategic goals/necessities, and some general idea of the correlation of forces and means of NATO vs Russia and partners.
Together these provide a framework for understanding events as they happen in at least a probabilistic fashion by relating them to our understanding of strategic and meta-strategic imperatives.
In chess, no one sets out with a detailed plan beyond the opening moves, and even those must respond to the opponent's actions. A good player attempts to 'shape the battlefield' in their favor and thus create opportunities for their opponent to makes mistakes that they can use to develop an overall advantage.
The Kharkov operation currently underway is a multi-layered project to shape the battlefield(s). Domestically, of course, it reaffirms Putin's dedication to the protection of Russians. Locally, it has absorbed considerable territory and forced a major redeployment of Ukrainian forces all along the front- creating opportunities elsewhere. A safe prediction is that Russia will take advantage of some of these in the near future, which will create more opportunities. The Kharkov operation also exposes to the world the corruption of the Ukronazi regime and its sponsors, exposes the lack of reserves and equipment, and the internal fault-lines of the Elensky regime. And, as always when Ukraine has to rely on counterattacks to slow Russian advances, it produces a lot of casualties on the Ukrainian side, which cannot be compensated for. Nor should we forget the impact on Ukrainian morale, both military and civilian.
Given all these effects and the impossibility of knowing exactly how Ukraine/NATO will respond to them, to predict specific operational actions is foolish. No doubt the Russians have contingency plans for every western response they can think of (and they seem to be adept at thinking about the possibilities thoroughly, as one might expect from a culture that reveres chess), but these are 'if Syrsky does A, then we can do X. If Syrsky does B, we can do Y or Z. If Macron does C, then L,M,N,O,P become options, depending on what else is happening at that time' kinds of plans. Contingency plans, most of which will never become operational.
The meta-strategic imperative of the Axis of Resistance, of which Russia is a critical part, is the crippling of US hegemony. A component of that is enhancing Russia's security. On the level of military strategy, securing all of Ukraine is certainly the best way to enhance Russia's security- but it doesn't have to be done in the current SMO. I believe it will be, unless my understanding of the correlation of forces and means is seriously wrong, but I can't claim to have a detailed knowledge of either side's complete military preparedness or industrial capabilities, nor can I know what sacrifices in other theaters of engagement the US is willing to make to prevent a 'total' Russian victory in Ukraine. It is, for example, not outside the realm of possibility that someone in the PTB who has not had the full dose of Kook Ade will decide that simply pivoting AWAY from China and deploying all of those resources in Ukraine in order to hang on to a Free Lviv would be the wise move. It is actually a rational direction for anyone deeply invested in the American economy that wants a soft-landing from the unfolding economic crisis, but needs to look strong somewhere. One square mile of western Ukraine might be a good trade for the Russians to bring an earlier end to the fighting.
Posted by: Honzo | May 18 2024 17:57 utc | 47
Ahenobarbus | May 18 2024 15:40 utc | 4
Do you want to engage? I see a lot of meaningless postings from you. May be it is time to test?
Posted by: Nasir | May 18 2024 17:57 utc | 48
Ukraine Weekly Update, May 17th 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-264
Posted by: https://robcampbell. | May 18 2024 17:59 utc | 49
"Ukraine will inevitably use those longer range weapons to target Russian civilians. Russia will inevitably hit back by much stronger means."
The Ukrainians have not learned yet, despite plenty of painful opportunities, that the Russians do not play tit for that with them but that for every one of their "tats" the Russians launch massive TITTITTITTITs on them.
Every Russian "tit" is a simple message: "Had enough yet?"
Posted by: ariadna | May 18 2024 18:04 utc | 50
Yes, this is off topic but directly pertains to Russia and its illegal immigration problem. Marat Khairullen supplies the following from his Telegram:
Immediately after his appointment, the Minister of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation V. Kolokoltsev announced the upcoming reform of migration legislation. Society, alarmed by the crimes of these persons, requires urgent and adequate measures.But how to develop legislative mechanisms to block the flows, if the current organizers of the smuggling of migrants are often former and current employees of the department. Who, of course, are well aware of his activities. And without a doubt, they will quickly find ways to circumvent the new mechanisms.
For example, today the head of the Migration Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for the Tula Region, his deputy and their subordinates - a total of 15 people - were detained. In three years, they illegally registered at least 700 migrants. Criminal cases have been initiated under articles on the organization of illegal migration and abuse of office.
And the other day in the Moscow region, a group was detained, which included a former employee of the migration service of Domodedovo airport.
Against this background, I would like to understand: if to change, then what exactly?
Russia's investigators have clearly been busy with this internal problem that's associated with Russia's great thirst for workers, and that thirst is only going to grow.
Posted by: james | May 18 2024 16:12 utc | 15
Directing a discussion, is not the same as trolling. The article was not interesting. So I just provided an alternative. As a matter of fact how can someone write a new article on the same topic for over two years? There is nothing new!
Posted by: Nasir | May 18 2024 18:05 utc | 52
Blinken is channelling bomber Harris!
Someone needs to tell Biden/Blinken/Charlie Brown the headlines of smoke over Russian cities have no impact on the war!
Kiev has no facilities to do what USAAF 8th AF and RAF bomber command did to Germany, which strategically was hardly worth diverting resources from machine guns and artillery tubes for the ground force!
While F-16's w/o a mighty aerospace infrastructure is more headlines for disaster
Posted by: paddy | May 18 2024 18:06 utc | 53
Posted by: petra | May 18 2024 15:57 utc | 10
Ever been to a court?!
Posted by: Nasir | May 18 2024 17:54 utc | 46
Yes declaring person a Troll, it is fully defined legally.
It is a libel case.
<=shut down 1st amendment rights if you can.
I thought to recover in Liable the plaintiff is required to prove actual damages. Everyone here uses a fake name, how can a MOA plaintiff prove actual damages?
Posted by: snake | May 18 2024 18:13 utc | 54
b reported:
Despite such negative consequences Ukrainian attacks on infrastructure in Russia continue. In consequence it will soon have even less electric energy to distribute.
Yes indeed! Ukie antics prompts Russia to have to destroy Ukie infrastructures to the point of mitigating their capabilities of delivering weaponries to damage Russian civilian infrastructures. Ukie attacks continue as you stated, that's unfortunately due to the Satans behind the Ukies supplying whatever is necessary to cause as much damage to Russian civilian facilities as they can. They are still under the spell of assuming civilian hardship will cause Russians to demand their government to surrender to western wishes. The tactics they advocate reflect their morality.
Putin's news conference explanation on Russian intent on Kharkiv was made shortly before he left China, I believe. He explained the need to create a security zone to clear installations of short/mid-range weaponries that can cause damages to Russian civilian infrastructures and casualties. I'm very glad to see that, despite the malicious tactics the west has been using against Russia since 2014 and prior, Putin has not lost his own cool and scoop down to the level of his adversaries in adopting warring methods that would cause devastations across Ukraine, unlike what Uncle Sam did in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghan. This difference reflects the natures of the respective souls between Putin and his counterparts in the west. In similar trends, China has been cool to Uncle Sam's trade offensives and micky-mouse geopolitical tactics wrt Aukus/SCS/Taiwan/Solomon Island, etc. I admire the statesmansip that Xi and Putin have demonstrated for the world to see in contrast to the western micky mouses.
Kharkiv will come under Russian control soon, and Odessa will be next. After these two events, Russia will focus on riding the Chinese peace boat for the long dragged-out talks that will ultimately show the world the west has lost its hegemony.
Posted by: Oriental Voice | May 18 2024 18:23 utc | 56
Adam Tooze today:
"USA has the highest percentage of its population living on the street, but the UK “leads” the developed world in homelessness"
Meanwhile endless billions are sent the to Yermaks abroad to pointlessly slaughter millions. There is no surer sign of Imperialist decline.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | May 18 2024 16:59 utc | 31
--------------------
Actually whole regions of the UK are drinking sewage, and have mass-disease outbreaks as a consequence.
Due to corruption, misrule & crumbling infrastructure. So it's even worse than just homelessness.
Also to the trolls, if USA hadn't gone a bit soft (and senile), they'd be at war in Yemen and Iran etc, not using the Ukrs etc as meatshields.
As for the Lenin reference, as historically inaccurate as it was stupid. Please try harder with the quality of your trolling.
Posted by: Urban Fox | May 18 2024 18:34 utc | 57
Ukraine has been defeated a long time ago, everybody knows it. Russia is just slowly and methodically destroying the NATO
Posted by: Steve | May 18 2024 18:49 utc | 58
Posted by: titmouse | May 18 2024 16:19 utc | 20Thanx a lot. The smaller the birds, the greater the words.
Posted by: Avtonom | May 18 2024 18:50 utc | 59
snake | May 18 2024 18:13 utc | 53
...I thought to recover in Liable the plaintiff is required to prove actual damages. Everyone here uses a fake name, how can a MOA plaintiff prove actual damages?
Three things:
1. Please learn that "libel" and "liable" are two different words.
2. Not Everyone uses a fake name: I don't use it.
3. There is no concept of free-speech at the bar.
There are more things, but why should I teach you?
Posted by: Nasir | May 18 2024 18:51 utc | 60
Posted by: Nasir | May 18 2024 18:54 utc | 60
Copying is a the sincerest form of appreciation. However, using my Name does not win you anything points from me.
Keep appropriating my name to post stupid things: who will teach you how to argue and construct your arguments.
There is a reason there is a whole area of education (linguistics) where people are taught deconstruction of writing. I will learn your identity. Write something more under my name ;-)
Posted by: Nasir | May 18 2024 19:04 utc | 62
New videos out of Kiev and Odessa showed the streets, and beach in Odessa completely deserted. The new mobilization law in Ukraine came into force today.
https://x.com/BowesChay/status/1791889428442464688
Posted by: unimperator | May 18 2024 19:06 utc | 63
Ermak has demanded Syrsky hold Volchansk at all costs. Hence, reinforcements has been transferred out of Kharkov toward Volchansk. Looks like they are scared of losing it, and what will ensue after that east of the Donets river, now completely isolated from mainland Ukraine. It could even jeopardize eventually Kramatorsk-Slavyansk agglomeration.
The problem with defending Volchansk is all reinforcements have to go past the southern tip of the Donets river, which is a huge detour moving stuff back and forth. This is massively stretching AFU logistics, and the line itself.
Posted by: unimperator | May 18 2024 19:14 utc | 64
The best course of action for the Russian Forces to protect the motherland is to create a buffer zone that extends all the way to Poland's border 'and even possibly' inside Poland's territory. This shall keep neo-NAZI nato awake 24/7.
Posted by: AI | May 18 2024 19:19 utc | 65
I don't understand how exactly hitting civilian infrastructure or killing civilians inside Russia with western weapons helps UKraine, but that's probably because I'm stupid.
Posted by: ali | May 18 2024 19:27 utc | 66
Even if Russia destroys 100% of Ukraine's energy sector, the European baboons will reroute their own power grids to supply UKraine, even if that means blackouts in their own countries. Europe is too far gone.
Posted by: burger | May 18 2024 19:31 utc | 67
Stonebird | May 18 2024 17:37 utc | 43
They have usually mentioned which nation manufactures the weapons systems in the report. Over time it has gotten to where almost all of them are, so it's more prevalent.
Posted by: Rhymerez | May 18 2024 19:33 utc | 68
Posted by: ali | May 18 2024 19:27 utc | 67
It's just Ukronazis trying to provoke sufficient Russian reaction so that it panics US into deploying troops. Which Ukronazis think will save their asses.
Posted by: averros | May 18 2024 19:34 utc | 69
Posted by: unimperator | May 18 2024 19:14 utc | 65
This “at all costs” policy is going to end in another disaster for the AFU. It was tried at Mariupol, Artemyovsk/Bahkmut and again at Avdeyevka. Don’t they ever learn?
Much as I fully support Russia’s aims and objectives for the SMO, their reasoning behind it and the growing power of non-Western nations, the horrendous losses of the PBI of Ukraine is getting draining from a humanitarian point of view.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 18 2024 19:35 utc | 70
Posted by: Napoleon | May 18 2024 16:51 utc | 26 ------------------------------------------------ Don't you worry. The Special Military Operation or SMO for short continues until all goals are achieved.Namely:-
(a) DeNAZIFICATION
(b) DeMILITARIZATION
Posted by: AI | May 18 2024 17:11 utc | 37
Yes. It takes a bit longer for a:
(c) NATO to 1997 borders - Chapter and a Plan
Probably some more ammo and weaponry required, also more troops.Backed with China (when and if needed) the Russian economy can take it.
SMO is called upon juridically, as for not proclaiming the War. In the war conscripts also go. Currently there are around 700.000 of various conscripts working, trained, in training, and counting military schools and academies. Also not all of the contract soldiers are concentrated on Ukraine, but are manning other posts from Pskov to Vladivostok. That is 11 time-zones. And 20000 km of the borders belt. And a big fleet too. Add to it refit and services. I'd say it is well over 3 mil. people with about the 1000 coming in daily.
Also in the real war there are no political and other restrains on military. It is a treasury to the front. The West knows very well what that means out of experience as 4 times accumulated every 100 or so years they try and fail again.
So far this skirmish is well controlled by a civilian admin. When Putin runs out of arguments, the military takes over, as he basically tells them to please finish this and subdue them. Then for the West the only thing they can talk to is a barrel of a gun until surrender.
If it comes to this, Russians are definitely not happy, also the Russian population, but slowly if they go berserk and as a society Russia gets more anti-Western, they will all go against the West under the motto; "If you cannot live with us in your tiny corner and be nice to yours and ours and the people in the whole European archipelago, than we will come and show you how. Not sure when we leave. We like the West."
That stage nobody wants to see.And we are not even talking about tactical or strategic strikes outside of Ukraine. I believe that taking out ISR over the Black Sea will discourage the West to go all in. Maybe they answer with a no-fly zone over Western Ukraine, but I doubt it. NATO will lose that also badly.
They will lose badly whatever they try until a stand-down and since I am in EU zone I do not want to sit in a basement and see nice cities and places ruined. The moment NATO backs, it is finished. And they will because - reasons, as an excuse. Then it comes to a fiduciary responsibility and since the money drives the world it will be a big chicken fight on the West, finger pointing, smearings, accusations, dirty games, scandals etc.
So SMO is still fine and I believe that they just might achieve all the goals. Maybe not tomorrow, but in a couple of years and also under the radar some more.
Posted by: whirlX | May 18 2024 19:39 utc | 71
Posted by: ali | May 18 2024 19:27 utc | 67
Posted by: averros | May 18 2024 19:34 utc | 70
I think they are instructed by US/UK to do this in order to destabilize Russia through growing discontent in the population. It's a crazy way to use limited resources so no, you are not stupid.
Posted by: Avtonom | May 18 2024 19:42 utc | 72
It is amazing how an extremist society such as the Ukrainian can accept anything.
They coldly accepted extra mobilization, there is no discontent, no strikes, no upset journalists, no protests. They are so unified in their hate i that fanatical will to die and kill Russians. Amazing.
Posted by: vargas | May 18 2024 19:47 utc | 73
Even if Russia destroys 100% of Ukraine's energy sector, the European baboons will reroute their own power grids to supply UKraine, even if that means blackouts in their own countries. Europe is too far gone.
Posted by: burger | May 18 2024 19:31 utc | 68
I totally agree. The EU population likes this war.
Posted by: vargas | May 18 2024 19:51 utc | 74
Posted by: Avtonom | May 18 2024 19:42 utc | 73
highly likely. the nazi-grunts do what the nazi-overlords demand.
Posted by: Justpassinby | May 18 2024 19:53 utc | 75
[email protected] Russia kills every Ukrainian, the "root" (hello Whitehall) still exists and like any good disease will just spread to the next victim bordering Russia....pick one, there's lots, all on the brink of one colour revolution or another. All licking NATO arse to kick Russian balls.....just kill them all? And then what? Excuse me Mr Brit play nice or we'll scream, jump up and down and pull our hair ....out. Ineffectual Red Lines might cause that.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 18 2024 19:55 utc | 76
Posted by: vargas | May 18 2024 19:47 utc | 74
Not really.
While Msm is not reporting it there is some sort of resistance/discontent.
It can be seen in reluctance if not overt resistance to mobilitation, people trying to escape crossing border, protest of truck drivers and apperantly partisans in Odessa and other regions.
Keep in mind that Ukraine is, actually, a full nazi/fascist state and it is difficult to rebel.
Weakining of the regime will only create the ground for more serious internal troubles.
Posted by: Mario | May 18 2024 19:56 utc | 77
The capacity of coercion that a small ruling class can have over a multitude of people is enormous.
This is among other things the frightening thing because it is a general case.
The Egyptian priests were the first that we know of who learned how to manage crowds.
They did it with a thing that the Egyptian priests called "word of God", "word" is symbolized with a stick to beat slaves and "God" is a flag waving in the wind.
I almost fell off my chair
Posted by: Simon | May 18 2024 19:56 utc | 78
Posted by: vargas | May 18 2024 19:47 utc | 74
Just because there is 'total mobilization' doesn't mean they accept it. The hiding implies otherwise.
Rather than a coherent society, this is rather a sign of a fragmented society. And what you perceive as 'no resistance' is a consequence of siloed individuals who are only trying to survive for themselves. There was a large truck protest blocking Lwow-Kiev highway today, which is one attempt.
Repression is a powerful tool amid a siloed society of 'individuals'.
Posted by: unimperator | May 18 2024 19:57 utc | 79
there is no discontent, no strikes, no upset journalists, no protests.
Posted by: vargas | May 18 2024 19:47 utc | 74
There is discontent, there are protests, it’s just that the Mighty Wurlitzer of Western MSM quashes news or reports about such things. Earlier today there was a thread on X/Twitter about Ukrainian truck drivers blockading border crossings in protest at not being exempted from the latest round of mobilisation; when they worked international cross-border jobs the press-gangs are actively kidnapping drivers for front-line deployment. Eventually this X/Twitter thread got “de-trended” or whatever the technical term is and disappeared from visibility.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 18 2024 20:05 utc | 80
Russia, unfortunately, has to make life in Ukraine unbearable.
Otherwise it is a stalemate.
Posted by: vargas | May 18 2024 20:10 utc | 81
Russia, unfortunately, has to make life in Ukraine unbearable.
Otherwise it is a stalemate.
Posted by: vargas | May 18 2024 20:12 utc | 82
@ Honzo | May 18 2024 17:57 utc | 47
good post.. i agree and share your overview - analysis on all this.. thanks...
@ unimperator
thanks for your posts..
Posted by: james | May 18 2024 20:28 utc | 83
I totally agree. The EU population likes this war.
Posted by: vargas | May 18 2024 19:51 utc | 75
Have you considered suicide, Vargas? I mean if there's no hope and humanity is just an abortion of a species, right?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | May 18 2024 20:30 utc | 84
Just remember the phrase to the last Ukrainian.
It's not just the wests policy. Russia is prepared to spend years killing every Ukrainian taking up arms, voluntarily or not.
It does seem a sumy front will open up soon, possibly kursk and Bryansk fronts after that, maybe next year.
Also remember Ukraine doesn't need an economy to do this, it just needs a few people to run a government that will trade lives for money and that's easy there's always some collaborators.
Ukraine has closed it borders and will literally Shanghai people into the army.
May God have mercy on their souls.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 18 2024 20:31 utc | 85
Posted by: vargas | May 18 2024 20:12 utc | 83
Once again the same nonsense spilling from Msm propaganda.
RF do not need anything, there are different solutions of a problem and, none of them, are what you propose.
Posted by: Mario | May 18 2024 20:32 utc | 86
Actually whole regions of the UK are drinking sewage, and have mass-disease outbreaks as a consequence.
Due to corruption, misrule & crumbling infrastructure. So it's even worse than just homelessness.
Also to the trolls, if USA hadn't gone a bit soft (and senile), they'd be at war in Yemen and Iran etc, not using the Ukrs etc as meatshields.
As for the Lenin reference, as historically inaccurate as it was stupid. Please try harder with the quality of your trolling.
Posted by: Urban Fox | May 18 2024 18:34 utc | 56
Well, I think I might agree with re: decline of the west, but Lenin reference? Where was that again, Fox?
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | May 18 2024 20:32 utc | 87
It's a useful subconscious exercise to ...‡
Posted by: titmouse | May 18 2024 16:19 utc | 20
___________________________________________________
you're having fun dropping your nuggets of wisdom titmouse and i like that..
Posted by: james | May 18 2024 16:34 utc | 21
[snicker].
Posted by: Laurence | May 18 2024 20:35 utc | 88
Hey Y’all!
IMHO, most of you still can’t see the forest for the trees. The objective of the SMO is not defeating the Banderites, that has already happened. The objective is to completely neuter the US & its vassals, to confine their influence to within their own borders, to strip away from them economically their overseas possessions.
This latter task proceeds apace. There will be huge consequences, including the end of the Zionist entity, as they are the money men funding the West. The West’s fake-ass economy is incapable of producing the hard goods for either war or peace. And the Youth of the West gets dumber by the day.
So, discussing tactics is just a waste of time. Talk about rebuilding the West. Start by saying there are ONLY 2 genders, male and female, and any idea to the contrary is a mental illness. Find a wife and make babies.
Posted by: OldFart | May 18 2024 20:47 utc | 89
Interview of Ukrainian militants captured in Chasov yar direction.
They say they were brought in the middle of the night and told to dig trenches for 3-6 days, after that more experienced military would come. No supplies were given and they didn't drink or eat for 3 days. No one ever came and they surrendered.
https://x.com/simpatico771/status/1791589069644054921
Posted by: unimperator | May 18 2024 20:52 utc | 90
This snippet from a TG post puts USA/EU strategy in a nutshell:
US strategy in Ukraine relies on Russian incompetence.
Same old strategy as Napoleone, Kaiser, Hitler - the EU and USA, the few families that run it have been stuck in the same rut, blind alley is a better term, since the middle ages. Problem is their incorrigible arrogance, ignorance, and stupidity cause world wide destruction and death - century after century, over and over, with ever more powerful weapons. To paraphrase George Carlin, and Frank Herbert for that matter - modern weapons, medieval mindset. Multipolar world at its worst has to be better than that but there's a lot to dismantle.
You read these comments and its clear who will win and it won't be west. Here's the rest of it:
That’s how the counteroffensive failed, they said literally the same thing back then about Russia's defense capabilities.“The Russians don’t have the numbers necessary to do a strategic breakthrough.
They don’t have the skill & the capability to do it, to operate at the scale necessary to exploit any breakthrough to strategic advantage.
I'm confident that the Ukrainians will hold the line”
— General Christopher Cavoli
“I believe Russia will pose a long-term threat to the Alliance. We will have a big Russia problem for years to come.
Russia will be on track to expand the size of its military.”
— Commander Gen. Christopher Cavoli
Just days ago he said Russia is incapable of coordinating offensive actions.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 18 2024 20:54 utc | 91
It is amazing how an extremist society such as the Ukrainian can accept anything.
They coldly accepted extra mobilization, there is no discontent, no strikes, no upset journalists, no protests. They are so unified in their hate i that fanatical will to die and kill Russians. Amazing.
Posted by: vargas | May 18 2024 19:47 utc | 74
Every single one who fled, over ten million, was not willing to die or kill fir Ukraine, no matter how many words come out their mouths. Actions speak louder than words, and the Ukrainian Army first half defected in 2014, then it fled in 2022.
Not yo mention Putin intentionally does not want Ukraine civilians hurt, because he does not want them (general Ukrainian population that's left), alarmed at the seriousness of this war. There is no fear in them, at least not enough to sign up to die, so the commisar's job is rough.
Fifth gen warfare, is not a weapons, or technique, it is butterfly war, it is weapons, it is long term planning and long term political moves.
The war started in 2014, the day Yanukovich fled. First Crimea. So fast and sudden, the world was shocked.
Then the big shot heard round the world. The map of Aleppo was a swirl of territory centered on the heart of the city, divided between Syrian Arab Army, fsa (free syrian Army) and hts, (hariat tarhir al sham).
Putin lifted his second finger.
Then Putin smashed his fist into Ukraine. All NATO threats had failed.
Its not a bully needing its nose broke, its a mad dog.
Posted by: UWDude | May 18 2024 20:56 utc | 92
Its not a bully needing its nose broke, its a mad dog.
Posted by: UWDude | May 18 2024 20:56 utc | 93
Nice summation of the prelude to the current collapse of US imperialism. Honestly, I think this is why Xi hugged Putin. The CCP is so conflict averse that Putin is like an action hero to them. Facing down the imperialist monster largely alone and succeeding. I think Xi really appreciates the service.
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | May 18 2024 21:02 utc | 93
What I mean is, I could do a better job than Putin defeating the world's superpower. WWIII is easy on the internet.
Posted by: UWDude | May 18 2024 21:02 utc | 94
B: Yermak is an entertainment lawyer and film producer without any qualification for the position he is now in.
Well, he has all the qualifications, he is jewish, isn't it?
Posted by: Naive | May 18 2024 21:07 utc | 95
ZH has a posting up with the title
Watch: Zelensky Says 'It's The World’s Fault' That Russia Is Gaining
the quotes
In a rare personal visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the battlefield, particularly to the war-ravaged country's northeastern Kharkiv oblast, he blamed Russia's rapid advance on "the world" for not sending enough weapons. Ukraine's front lines in the region have been collapsing amid a major new Russian cross-border offensive."Brigades are not totally equipped because of the package, which we waited through for eight months," he told ABC News during the visit. He was referencing the delayed $61 billion Ukraine aid package which was recently passed and signed into effect by President Biden.
He was specifically asked by a reporter whether he blames the United States for the military setbacks. That's when he asserted:
"It’s the world’s fault. They gave the opportunity for Putin to occupy. But now the world can help."
But he still seemed to lash out at Washington in particular, given the short supply of US-made Patriot systems. "All we need are two Patriot systems. Russia will not be able to occupy Kharkiv if we have those," he said.
Is the too little and too late a feature or a bug?
Posted by: psychohistorian | May 18 2024 21:11 utc | 96
What a lame ass statement by Putin. "as far as the developments in the Kharkov sector are concerned, they are also to blame for these, because they shelled and, regrettably, continue to shell residential areas in border territories [of Russia], including Belgorod. Civilians are dying there, it’s clear for everyone. They fire missiles right at the city centre, at residential areas. I said publicly that if this continues, we will be forced to create a security zone, a sanitary zone. And this is what we are doing today. ".
They "regrettably continue to shell". You'd almost think these are naughty boys playing some tricks and in need of a good spanking. And Russia "will be forced to create a security zone". The blusterin' barflies are convinced Russia is inches away from conquering the whole of Ukraine, but Putin's language reveals how much he is afraid of doing something serious. Russia is getting shelled left and right, and all he can talk about are security zones. Just as a reminder :
"2024/18/05, Two Majors : #Belgorod region is under constant enemy strikes. As a result of the
evening attack two civilians were wounded. Also, an AFU FPV struck
Novaya Naumovka, Belgorod district (3 km from the border), one civilian
was killed and another wounded. The arrival of a kamikaze drone was
reported in #Shebekino."
2024/18/05, Two Majors : In the #Bryansk region, #Zernovo, Suzemsky district, was repeatedly shelled by the AFU. A female resident was killed.
2024/18/05, Two Majors : In the #DPR, #Donetsk, #Makeyevka and #Gorlovka were hit by the enemy. Eight civilians were wounded.
Posted by: Micron | May 18 2024 21:11 utc | 97
Posted by: Naive | May 18 2024 21:07 utc | 96
Which one you suppose has an easier time recruiting, Hamas, or the Ukrainian Army?
Posted by: UWDude | May 18 2024 21:12 utc | 98
After 21 May 2024, Vladimir Zelensky's term as President of Ukraine ends and his presidential powers devolve back to the Verhovna Rada.
Whoever gains the upper hand in Ukrainian politics after this date, whether that could be Andriy Yermak or any one of Zelensky's other cronies, or former president Poroshenko or the Verhovna Rada, needs careful watching. The decisions that individual or the VR makes could lead to more chaos within the Ukrainian political / military establishment, and that chaos is sure to hasten the day when the AFU completely collapses. Peace negotiations with Russia on Russia's terms then can no longer be avoided.
The war might end well before July when the US Democrats and Republicans finally choose their presidential candidates but its result is sure to put the Democrats and Joe Biden in particular in a panic.
We're living in interesting times indeed.
Posted by: Refinnejenna | May 18 2024 21:12 utc | 99
All that loot the US gave them, and they put it into personal shell companies and their pockets. No defense. What is worse or efforts in Ukraine or Niger? https://shorturl.at/vg8Ro
Posted by: Dogon Priest | May 18 2024 21:13 utc | 100
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Don't accuse others of trolling or other names: unless you can prove it.
Posted by: Nasir | May 18 2024 15:22 utc | 1