|
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-145
Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.
The Economist wants us to know that Volodymyr Zelensky’s presidential term expires on May 20th.
I am sure that Russia will act accordingly.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Some RT headlines, for those living in the free world.where freedom means never having to be discombobulated by russian propaganda.
>…US Congress threatens ICC with sanctions
[lol, remember that glee when the ICC issued an international arrest warrant for Putin?]
…House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, called the ICC move “disgraceful” and “lawless.”
“If unchallenged by the Biden administration, the ICC could create and assume unprecedented power to issue arrest warrants against American political leaders, American diplomats, and American military personnel,” Johnson said on Monday, demanding the White House “use every available tool to prevent such an abomination.”
Michael McCaul, the Texas Republican who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told Axios on Monday that a bill to sanction the court is already being drafted, based on the February 2023 bill introduced by Senator Tom Cotton, an Arkansas Republican.
Cotton was among the dozen senators who wrote to Khan earlier this month, reminding the ICC prosecutor that the US has a law on the books allowing “all means necessary and appropriate” to defend any Americans – or allies – sought by the court. The 2002 law was nicknamed the “Hague Invasion Act.”
[if the U$ didn’t have double standards, it’d have no standards at all. ]
Israel wasn’t involved in Iranian president’s fatal helicopter crash – Reuters
[ok, now that it’s been officially denied, it’s safe to think Israel was involved in the Iranian president’s death]
The Israeli government had nothing to do with the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Reuters has reported, citing an unnamed official.
China offloads record amount of dollar assets – data
Beijing has sold $53.3 billion in US securities, according to Treasury Department data
Some experts have pointed to the economic impact of Western sanctions on Russia following the Ukraine conflict, saying that China seeks to mitigate similar risks.
“The handling of Russian reserves by the US and other G7 countries, including threats of expropriations and sanctions, likely prompted China to reduce its exposure to US Treasury assets to avoid being similarly targeted,” Craig Shapiro, a macroeconomic adviser at LaDuc Trading, told Newsweek on Saturday, referring to the seizure of Russian assets.
India to advocate for Global South at Swiss talks on Ukraine – Modi
The prime minister has suggested that New Delhi will participate in an upcoming ‘peace summit’ based on Vladimir Zelensky’s formula
… India will “resonate the voice of the Global South” at a conference on the Ukraine conflict hosted by Switzerland next month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said during an interview with the PTI news agency.
…The prime minister did not, however, confirm whether he will represent India in person at the events. The level of participation would depend on “timing, logistics, and parallel commitments,” he underlined.
…In a phone call with Modi in March, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky sought his attendance at the “peace formula” summit in Switzerland. Subsequently, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba traveled to New Delhi to convince the Indian leadership to attend the event.
…Switzerland has also made efforts to seek support from India. Foreign Secretary Alexandre Fasel traveled to New Delhi last week to extend an invitation to Modi to participate at the summit, telling PTI that “India is a friend of the world. There is really an expectation from the international community that India can contribute to this process.”
Is the US falling out of love with India?
New Delhi may remain Washington’s partner in some areas, but it will never be the proxy the Americans want
fter India pursued a deal with Iran on the Chabahar Port, the US responded by threatening New Delhi with sanctions.
This has exposed a possible growing geopolitical incompatibility between the two countries over the past several years, even as the US championed India as a critical strategic partner against China.
Since 2017, the US has promoted India as one of its key partners. It even went so far as to rename an entire region “the Indo-Pacific,” eyeing New Delhi as a key strategic asset in its longstanding strategic ambition of containing the rise of China.
Thus, India was celebrated for its commitment to democracy, its potential as a new economic and manufacturing giant, and became part of a grouping known as “The Quad,” alongside Australia and Japan. New Delhi itself was happy to capitalize on these strategic overtures to enable its own economic and political rise as a great power. As the West soured on China, Prime Minister Narendra Modi saw that India’s time had come.
All of a sudden, however, this newly found optimism for India melted away, despite Western economic engagement with the country growing.
New Delhi appears increasingly estranged from US objectives, even to the point that “The Quad” was recently marginalized in favor of a new grouping, dubbed “The Squad” with the militantly pro-US Philippines under Ferdinand Macros Jr taking India’s place.
It is as if the US believes Manilla will do more to cooperate on anti-China objectives than New Delhi, such as joint military exercises.
Thus, from close proximity, India appears to be falling into relative estrangement.
What happened?
First, India has an independent and strictly self-interested foreign policy. It might be willing to lean towards the US for its own gain, but that does not make it an “ally.”
The US can subdue many countries into following its foreign policy objectives, such as Britain, the Baltic states, or the Philippines, but India only joins in if it sees fit.
Talk of New Delhi being part of an ideological cause for “democracy and freedom” is nonsense, and its leadership has never seen such cooperation in this way, despite its grievances with China.
India has no commitment to US unipolarity like Britain or Australia would support, and instead seeks to rise as a power in its own right in a multipolar world.
……India has had an interest in balancing the rise of China, because it recognizes that it can benefit economically from supply-chain and manufacturing realignments.
However, when US-led foreign policy begins to attempt to crush all multipolarity for its own benefit, this becomes a strategic problem for India and creates a divergence in the two nations’ objectives.
One particular example is the war in Ukraine.
……Why would India comply with the US-led sanctions regime? It did not, and even pursued currency changes to avoid it. Ukrainian victory would strategically weaken and isolate India, forcing it into a Western dependency scenario.
Worse still, the war has ushered in an improvement in US relations with Pakistan following the removal and jailing of anti-US Prime Minister Imran Khan.
The US, of course, tried to ignore and reconcile these differences for quite a while, even as it leaned on India’s shoulder. …………
……increased Western conflict with Iran, which is another strategic partner of India, a country with which it has historical and cultural ties, and is another critical energy supplier.
As US tensions with Iran grow, India will not follow suit on Western pressure.
Then finally, to top it all off, a recent Biden gaffe ruffled feathers in India wen he called the nation “xenophobic.”
All of this has had the effect of recalibrating India’s balancing act on its foreign policy and distancing itself from the US.
In conclusion, New Delhi may be a US partner in some areas, but it is not a US proxy.
The two countries have very different visions for the emerging new world order.
India cannot accept US subjugation or the removal of its own strategic partners from the chessboard, which has quickly stifled Washington’s starry-eyed vision of India being the newest global champion of freedom and democracy, in pursuit of a unipolar world.
China warns US over Ukraine
Beijing has pushed back against Washington’s “groundless” claims it is arming Moscow’s troops
Washington is deliberately prolonging the Ukraine conflict and seeking to profit from it, while “smearing” Beijing with false accusations, the Chinese deputy envoy to the UN told the Security Council on Monday.
China has a right to carry out normal economic and trade cooperation with all countries in the world, including with Russia, and such cooperation should not be interfered with or undermined,” the diplomat said.
“We urge the US to stop attacking, smearing, and slandering China and spreading fabrications, and stop unilateral sanctions against, and unreasonable suppression of, Chinese enterprises.”
While the US and its allies have poured over $200 billion worth of weapons, equipment and ammunition into Ukraine – while insisting that does not make them party to the hostilities – they have repeatedly accused China of helping the Russian military by exporting dual-use goods, and threatened Beijing with sanctions.
Posted by: Melaleuca | May 21 2024 1:39 utc | 99
|