Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 19, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-143

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Comments

The 20th of May has begun…the last day of Zelensky’s presidency.
I still have no idea what will happen. Seems we’re all in the same boat, afaict.

Last Ukraine open thread, a deep discussion on the four letter vocabulary. This one on the joys of killing civilians. May as well be reading some teenage bullshit site.
Peter AU1 | May 20 2024 1:25 utc | 90
Indeed. FFS, when you have nothing to write/ discuss on the topic: Just don’t.

Posted by: smuks | May 20 2024 1:52 utc | 101

Yet, they were, all the time.
Posted by: UWDude | May 20 2024 1:43 utc | 100
In 1139, during the Lateran Council, the Pope forbade its use among Christians, under penalty of excommunication

Posted by: Newbie | May 20 2024 1:53 utc | 102

This squirrel cage-fight is terminal. Why don’t you clowns rent a room and play monopoly in it? That’s got to be better than this. As to the frequent lament around here that ‘the thread has been hijacked/trolled – and most of all NAZIIFIED!!!’ – LOL.
The war has been going on for too long and most of the virtue-signalling, second-rate, yes-men commissars have cracked from the strain.
Thank God (if you’ll pardon the expression) it’s spring and I can occupy my time splitting wood, shoveling shit and weeding vegetables. See you all next year, the next again, and a decade later and the threads will be the same ol baloney.

Posted by: Robert E.Smith | May 20 2024 1:53 utc | 103

Posted by: Newbie | May 20 2024 1:53 utc | 102
Better said it was banned from Catholics to use them on other Catholics. They never banned the use on other groups.

Posted by: badjoke | May 20 2024 2:02 utc | 104

Are chemical weapons prohibited? Does USA have a stockpile of them?
Posted by: UWDude | May 20 2024 1:37 utc | 98
Yes, their use is prohibited if a state signed on to the CWC. A state having them in possession does not equal usage, those are two separate things.
Article VI of the CWC, section 1, 2:
“Each State Party has the right, subject to the provisions of this Convention, to develop, produce, otherwise acquire, retain, transfer and use toxic chemicals and their precursors for purposes not prohibited under this Convention.”
“Each State Party shall adopt the necessary measures to ensure that toxic chemicals and their precursors are only developed, produced, otherwise acquired, retained, transferred, or used within its territory or in any other place under its jurisdiction or control for purposes not prohibited under this Convention.”
https://www.opcw.org/chemical-weapons-convention/articles/article-vi-activities-not-prohibited-under-convention

Posted by: James M. | May 20 2024 2:07 utc | 105

prisoners would general be offered for ransom, etc
Posted by: Newbie | May 20 2024 1:40 utc | 99
If they were worth anything. Yes, chivalry arose in the later Middle Ages because of the barbarity of the earlier Middle Ages, and ancient times. What Roman general was it that lined a road with crucified enemies?

Posted by: James M. | May 20 2024 2:12 utc | 106

Well, i have had two or three people claim now that Ukrainian targeting of civilian areas is be ause they are evil, and there is no strategic or tactical reason behind it.
That is on topic.
I have had lots of people come at me to call me evil, childish, or an asshat.
That is off topic.
There have been three or four who wish to express they feel the discussion is off topic.
That is off topic.
There has been one who said it was off topic, suggested taking it to OT, and two post later quoted me to chalkenge me, about a curiosity in 1139, followed by one king for 13 years until he decided he needed the weapon afterall.
Nobody has answered any of my questions, most of them related to Riddia and Ukraine, except the most basic one about why Ukraine shells civilian areas, with the most uncritical reply, “because they are evil”
And I have not even dared to hint at the idea that many of these attacks, might actually he aiming for something military or in civil control. Would Russia admit one of the cars hit by a drone in Donetsk was being driven by a colonel, intelligence officer, or some kind of logistics manager?
No.
But im off topic.
So please, with the off topic posts about what is off topic. Follow your own advice and post something different about Ukraine from what I have, or STFU.
And for the love of god, dont start with WW II or fascism and communism, again.
Jhc you people sometimes.

Posted by: UWDude | May 20 2024 2:14 utc | 107

@UWDude
Hey Dude! Your murdering that joint my friend – surely a toke or two is sufficient – peace man – make love not war! Ah – at last – Wheeezzzzeee –
As Wittgenstein might put it: The meaning of war is how it is propagated by the belligerents.
Now can we get back to that spot of bother in Ukraine – however it is called.

Posted by: Don Firineach | May 20 2024 2:19 utc | 108

Laws dont mean anything if they are not enforced.
Posted by: UWDude | May 20 2024 1:37 utc | 98
Hence the reciprocity concerns. Laws in international relations, or between countries, can only be enforced if those countries agree to those laws. If they don’t, then the other side is not obligated to abide by them either, resulting in as I said before…unpleasantness for everyone involved.
To minimize that, because that unpleasantness can get messy, those laws are put in place. In that way, states police themselves. If they break the laws, and lose a war, they are punished ex post facto. It’s an imperfect system true, but it’s better than nothing.

Posted by: James M. | May 20 2024 2:21 utc | 109

Also, dont even try that troll shit where you quote me or call me out, call me names, then say I am posting too much.

Posted by: UWDude | May 20 2024 2:21 utc | 110

Ukie trash deliberately attack civilians not just because they are evil. It is due to the impotent rage they feel as they die in hordes for nothing. Why shoot at Russian mility targets when most of the shots will fail anyway? By attacking civilians they desperately hope to cause dissension on the home front, stirring fear and doubt. They are much like the operatives who try to slip bs about fake Russian loses onto boards like this by any means necessary. It as failure all around and quite amusing

Posted by: nook | May 20 2024 2:23 utc | 111

Posted by: UWDude | May 20 2024 2:14 utc | 107

Nobody has answered any of my questions, most of them related to Riddia and Ukraine, except the most basic one about why Ukraine shells civilian areas, with the most uncritical reply, “because they are evil”

But of course. Because good people would not do that.
Have you read The Stranger from Albert Camus? If not read it, you will enjoy it.

Posted by: hopehely | May 20 2024 2:27 utc | 112

Well, i have had two or three people claim now that Ukrainian targeting of civilian areas is be ause they are evil, and there is no strategic or tactical reason behind it.
Posted by: UWDude | May 20 2024 2:14 utc | 107
There may be some strategic advantage to it, such as riling up the Russian population to the point that they want to overthrow Putin, since he cannot provide consistent protection, etc. But the chances of that actually happening are slim. It could also have a propaganda advantage – boost morale. Also to give something to the UK tabloids/fishrags to cheer on.
For tactical advantage, it could be useful in destroying supply lines, factories, power grids, and anything else to slow down the Russian military. Or to soften up an area in preparation for a Ukrainian offensive in that region. It could be just that Ukraine has such limited manpower and are stretched on the front that they have to be seen as doing something, anything to strike at Russia.

Posted by: James M. | May 20 2024 2:30 utc | 113

Hence the reciprocity concerns. Laws in international relations, or between countries, can only be enforced if those countries agree to those laws. If they don’t, then the other side is not obligated…
Posted by: James M. | May 20 2024 2:21 utc | 109
Yes, reciprocity is where true “laws of war” lie, and is the true enforcement mechanism, and is only truly tested during war.
Its useless to claim you have rights if you only have them until you go to court. It is pointless to claim you have a treaty if that treaty is only respected until war breaks out.
Right now we see escalation ladder in Russia, most clearly denoted during the introduction of cluster munitions. All Russia could do was warn they would use them if NATO did, and here we are.
BTW, I postulated, at the time, Russia may have whinged about the cluster munitions as reverse psychology, so they could use them without world condemnation.
And indeed, world opinion is a huge determinant of how ruthless a nation will execute its war. This is a fairly new phenomenon, in the age of film, and especially internet.
Russia is doing relatively well, considering the full spectrum dominance it is fighting, and Israel, not much.
In war, morality has its pragmatic value, but moral dogma does not.

Posted by: UWDude | May 20 2024 2:32 utc | 114

There may be some strategic advantage to it, such as riling up the Russian population to the point that they want to overthrow Putin, since he cannot provide consistent protection, etc. But the chances of that actually happening are slim. It could also have a propaganda advantage – boost morale. Also to give something to the UK tabloids/fishrags to cheer on.
Posted by: James M. | May 20 2024 2:30 utc | 113
Yes, this could be the reason. It is why I get really mad at those here who try to make these attacks to be more than they are, call them major disasters, say Putin is weak, or as my favorite poster always likes to say, “yet putin doesnt lift a finger”.
Because if that is the reason for the shelling, then the posters very well may be agents, script bots, etc.
I tend to think it is more to push Russia back into a more defensive position, but it could also be for propaganda value.
I do not think, however, that Ukrainian soldiers, gunners, and drone operators expose themselves to attack and death, “because they are evil”. Yes, there will be one here or there, but overall, it is simply intellectually lazy to offer that as any kind of reasoned explanation.

Posted by: UWDude | May 20 2024 2:41 utc | 115

Ukrainians kill Russian civilians because they are too weak to kill Russian troops. They kill because they want to kill Russians, and they want to kill Russians, any Russians, because their minds have been twisted into knots of psychotic hate by western manipulation.
There is nothing rational about Ukrainian hate for Russians. That hate predated active combat operations. Never forget Ukrainians jumping and chanting in unison about knifing “Moskals”. They are brain-fucked by western manipulation, just like ISIS headchoppers. Precisely the same as ISIS headchoppers.
Anyone trying to rationalize the mental illness inflicted on the Ukrainian people is part of the problem.

Posted by: William Gruff | May 20 2024 2:41 utc | 116

Posted by: Newbie | May 20 2024 1:53 utc | 102
Better said it was banned from Catholics to use them on other Catholics. They never banned the use on other groups.
Posted by: badjoke | May 20 2024 2:02 utc | 104
Go read 100, I mentioned between Christians (orthodox didn’t use it at the time)

Posted by: Newbie | May 20 2024 2:49 utc | 117

https://www.southfront.press/russian-small-missile-ship-reportedly-destroyed-by-atacms-strikes-in-sevastopol-last-night-map-update/
anybody know anything about this Russian ship destroyed ??

Posted by: snake | May 20 2024 2:50 utc | 118

Posted by: UWDude | May 20 2024 2:14 utc | 107
Nobody has answered any of my questions, most of them related to Riddia and Ukraine, except the most basic one about why Ukraine shells civilian areas, with the most uncritical reply, “because they are evil”
————-
But of course. Because good people would not do that.
Posted by: hopehely | May 20 2024 2:27 utc | 112
Of course supposedly “good” people (with good intentions) do things like that all the time!
as good a reason as any …. “the banality of evil”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/aug/29/hannah-arendt-adolf-eichmann-banality-of-evil

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 20 2024 3:06 utc | 119

Ukie trash deliberately attack civilians not just because they are evil. It is due to the impotent rage they feel as they die in hordes for nothing.
Posted by: nook | May 20 2024 2:23 utc | 111
Then why were doing the same thing during Maidan and afterwards … the Govt of Ukr shelling it’s own civilians in the donbass in 2014 until 2022 again until today, and murdering Crimeans, and burning people alive in Odessa?

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 20 2024 3:10 utc | 120

“ Why did John McCain believe the usa was righteous? Because we do not torture.”
Hahahahahahahahahahaaha
What a load.
This whole discussion that started around post 70 is very irritating and pathetic.
From what I have gathered here none of you has ever fought in any type of armed conflict. I remember one poster a while back but he’s dropped off MOA.
None of you should be making all these assumptions about the conduct of war, what you would or wouldn’t do, what’s “moral” in a war and what’s not
I’m not advocating or defending killing civilians purposely or anything of the sort, but it’s nauseating to read these opinions from people who have no idea what being in a war IS!
It’s a little bit more confused, grey and chaotic than arguing about it on a forum.
Go fight one, come back and tell me all about it!
I’ll wait.

Posted by: Archetypex | May 20 2024 3:12 utc | 121

The shelling of Donbas was that same impotent rage. They did that because the Donbas militias handed them their asses in battle. The murder of those in Odessa was just because they are hate filled evil subhuman stains. Even devils have their complexities.

Posted by: nook | May 20 2024 3:17 utc | 122

We’re not in the Middle Ages anymore.
Posted by: James M. | May 20 2024 1:27 utc | 92
That is a very debatable question. Objectively speaking we may be.
Especially if one properly defines “today’s religion” as an obsessive unnatural belief in Capitalism and US styled Neo-Liberal Inverted Totalitarian Faux Democracy which is merely another financialised version of Feudalism today.
————

The Middle Ages, spanning roughly from the 5th to the late 15th century, were characterized by a variety of human behaviors shaped by the prevailing social, economic, and religious structures. Here are some predominant behaviors:
1. Religious Devotion:
Christianity: Religion played a central role in daily life. The Catholic Church was the most powerful institution, influencing all aspects of life, from politics to education. People attended church regularly, participated in religious festivals, and observed various rites and sacraments.
Pilgrimages: Undertaking pilgrimages to holy sites, such as Jerusalem, Rome, or Santiago de Compostela, was a common practice.
Monasticism: Many people chose a monastic life, dedicating themselves to prayer, work, and study in monasteries.
2. Feudalism and Social Hierarchy:
Feudal Obligations: Society was structured around feudalism, with a rigid class system. Lords provided land and protection to vassals, who in return offered military service and labor.
Manorial Life: Most people were peasants (serfs) who worked the land for their lords. Daily life for peasants involved agricultural labor, with limited rights and freedoms.
3. Rural and Agrarian Lifestyle:
Agriculture: The majority of the population lived in rural areas and engaged in farming. Techniques included crop rotation and the use of plows.
Seasonal Work: Life was dictated by the agricultural calendar, with different tasks assigned to different seasons.
4. Community and Family Life:
Communal Living: People lived in close-knit communities, often centered around a manor or village.
Extended Families: Households often included extended family members, with strong family bonds and obligations.
5. Chivalry and Knighthood:
Chivalric Code: Knights followed a code of conduct that emphasized bravery, honor, and respect for women and the weak. Tournaments and jousts were popular activities among the nobility.
Feudal Warfare: Lords and knights frequently engaged in local conflicts and feuds, as well as larger-scale wars, such as the Crusades.
6. Trade and Craftsmanship:
Guilds: Skilled artisans and merchants formed guilds to regulate trade, maintain quality, and protect their interests.
Markets and Fairs: Local markets and seasonal fairs were crucial for trade, where people could buy and sell goods.
7. Intellectual and Cultural Life:
Learning and Education: Education was mostly the domain of the Church, with monasteries and cathedral schools as centers of learning. The late Middle Ages saw the rise of universities.
Art and Literature: Gothic architecture, illuminated manuscripts, and the development of vernacular literature were notable cultural achievements.
8. Health and Medicine:
Medieval Medicine: Medical knowledge was limited, often based on ancient texts and superstitions. Plagues and diseases, such as the Black Death, had devastating impacts.
Herbal Remedies: People relied on herbal remedies and folk medicine for treatment.
9. Legal and Political Systems:
Feudal Law: Justice was often administered by local lords under feudal law, which was customary rather than written.
Royal Authority: Over time, kings and queens consolidated power, leading to the development of more centralized states.
10. Cultural and Artistic Expression:
Gothic Architecture: The development of cathedrals and castles showcased advancements in architecture and art.
Literature and Music: Epic poetry, troubadour songs, and religious hymns were popular forms of cultural expression.
These behaviors and practices reflect the complex and diverse nature of life during the Middle Ages, heavily influenced by the social, religious, and economic conditions of the time.
ChatGPT can make mistakes. Check important info.

Not really much different. Same shit, different day!

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 20 2024 3:20 utc | 123

No, there is no grey to it. If you deliberately target civilians you are not a soldier, you are a murderer and terrorist.

Posted by: nook | May 20 2024 3:21 utc | 124

Posted by: Archetypex | May 20 2024 3:12 utc | 121

>I’m not advocating or defending killing civilians purposely or anything of the sort, but it’s nauseating to read these opinions from people who have no idea what being in a war IS!

If our opinions about the matter are not relevant, your feelings about our opinions are even less so.

Posted by: hopehely | May 20 2024 3:25 utc | 125

Propaganda has levels and degrees…our bombs only kill their military, their bombs always kill our civilians….degrees and levels….each individual has a choice, hook, line or sinker, perhaps all three….hmm, choices.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 20 2024 3:34 utc | 126

Posted by: nook | May 20 2024 3:21 utc | 124
Good luck with that in a modern war!
You think that artillery battery given a fire mission knows what’s going on where those rounds are landing!?
You get a fire mission and you fire.
Your FO tells you to fire for effect and you pound those coordinates.
It’s the same for lots of weaponry brought to target.
It’s that way for lots of soldiers in all specialties in every war.
You don’t get a discussion board to figure it out first.
What you do get is bad intelligence, chaos and orders. Follow them or end up dead, fragged by your own men or court martialed.
I invite you to experience it.
I want to hear all about these wonderful black and white guard rails a soldier can use to moderate his behavior in combat.

Posted by: Archetypex | May 20 2024 3:41 utc | 127

@Robert E.Smith | May 19 2024 17:02 utc | 32
Yep, Zelensky let all the Jews leave Ukraine while he was closing the borders to prevent gentile Ukrainian males from leaving. So its only gentiles dying under a Jewish president there in Ukraine. They’re doing the lying while the gentiles do the dying indeed.

Posted by: gT | May 20 2024 3:50 utc | 128

Archetypex | May 20 2024 3:41 utc | 127
Much seems to depend on the political leadership and upper echelons of military leadership.
We go back to WWII and onwards and the US has always targeted civilians – fire bombing and deliberate firestorms of German and Japanese cities Not to mention saving three Japanese cities to test/demonstrate their nuclear weapons. With the US comeback from Vietnam with its war of terror (civilians the main target), US military also began targeting any non vetted journalists.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 20 2024 3:52 utc | 129

Stop being thick! The operative word was deliberate!! Duh.

Posted by: nook | May 20 2024 3:57 utc | 130

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 20 2024 3:52 utc | 129
All very true.
The guys actually pulling the trigger and “targeting” those locations rarely have any idea what’s really there at the time. The guys that dropped the bombs in Japan didn’t really know what they were unleashing.
Even in close situations knowing what the hell is going on is problematic.
Kind of why I will never fight again unless defending my home or neighbors. You get used with little knowledge of what the real score is.

Posted by: Archetypex | May 20 2024 4:06 utc | 131

IIRC, during WW2, at one point the German Luftwaffe bombed UK airfields. The foreseeable result was that the RAF would cease to be a functioning air force.
So the RAF bombed German cities. In return, the Luftwaffe stopped bombing UK airfields, and began bombing British cities.
The RAF was saved, because the bombing of RAF airfields stopped.
There probably are similarities with Ukraine now.

Posted by: Passerby | May 20 2024 4:27 utc | 132

MoA commenters:
I would like you to take a bigger picture view and consider why there is a war in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian War is part of the effort of US bankers to implement a western based CBDC!
So was Covid.
I would explain more but my comment will just get deleted!

Posted by: Blind Bridge Troll | May 20 2024 4:50 utc | 133

Russian Sanctions are to isolate the west from the rest of the non western controlled world!
They are not to isolate Russia which by the way is why they aren’t working!
Ukrainians are fighting and dying to help implement the west’s CBDC!
Russia and China will implement their own CBDC!

Posted by: Blind Bridge Troll | May 20 2024 5:01 utc | 134

Ukrainians are hitting non militry targets in Russian because that is what the US bankers want and the reason only long range weapons are being supplied by US to Ukraine!
All part of enslaving the western people with CBDC!

Posted by: Blind Bridge Troll | May 20 2024 5:07 utc | 135

Posted by: nook | May 20 2024 3:57 utc | 130
“Deliberate” is meaningless in a modern war except for up close personal encounters.
The issue was artillery fire.
The battery commander says he was following his fire order.
The FO says there were combatants in the building.
The FDC says FO and S2 indicated building was occupied by combatants.
And so on up the chain.
Just not that easy.
It was all deliberate and they were all civilians.
So who deliberately targeted civilians?
Who knows!

Posted by: Archetypex | May 20 2024 5:42 utc | 136

Posted by: gT | May 20 2024 3:50 utc | 128
Correct

Posted by: ryanggg | May 20 2024 6:19 utc | 137

📋🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Report for the Morning of 20 May 2024; pub. 06:59📍
🔹In the #Kharkov direction, the enemy has pulled up serious reserves and is holding defences near #Liptsy and in #Volchansk, and is taking counterattack actions. At #Liptsy our troops have advanced to a depth of 200 to 400 m, in the #Volchansk section, from 150 to 600 m. #Bugrovatka was occupied the other day, the RFAF are attacking in the direction of the #Prilipka settlement.
🔹On #ChasovYar’s eastern outskirts, there are fierce battles, the RFAF are moving forward, south of the “Kanal Microdistrict” our troops are expanding the zone of control.
🔹In the #SouthDonetsk direction, our troops are fighting in #Paraskoviyevka (west of #Novomikhaylovka) and in #Krasnogorovka. Most of #Netaylovo is occupied.
🔹West of #Avdeyevka, the RFAF are advancing in #Umanskoye, most of which has been cleared of the enemy, and near #Yasnoborodovka.
🔹On the #Vremyevka ledge, there are battles for #Urozhaynoye and #Staromayorskoye, the enemy is counterattacking, there are no significant changes in the frontline.
🔹The #Zaporozhye front is characterised by the actions of our infantry groups in #Rabotino under enemy artillery and drone fire. Information from the media about the advance of the RFAF towards #Gulyaypole has not been confirmed from the ground.
🔹In #the Kherson direction, enemy strikes on our troops and civilians continue. In #Radensk a civilian died as a result of a Nazi drone strike on a car.
💥In the #Belgorod region, civilians are killed and wounded by the AFU strikes. #Shebekino was shelled from the AFU MLRS, 11 people were injured, among them 3 children. In #Rzhevka, Shebekinsky urban district, 2 more civilians were wounded as a result of shelling. In #Belgorod, a drone flew into the window of an apartment building, debris fell on an 11-year-old girl playing on a playground in the courtyard.
💥In the #Kursk region, #Gordeyevka in the Korenevsky district, the Sudzha Checkpoint, the village of #Guyevo and the Oleshnya Farm in the Sudzhansky district, the village named after #Kalininin in the Glushkovsky district, and the village of #Goptarovka in the Belovsky district were shelled. In #Gorodishche, Rylsky district, two Ukrainian drones damaged a car. Explosive devices from copters were dropped in #Guyevo and #Sverdlikovo, the village of #Kurilovka in the Sudzhansky district, the village of #Gordeyevka in the Korenevsky district, and the village of #Tyotkino in the Glushkovsky district.
🛡Electronic warfare suppressed AFU copters near the village of #Neonilovka, the villages of #Yelizavetovka and #Khodyakovka in the Glushkovsky district, the villages of #Gornal and #Guyevo, the village of #Kurilovka in the Sudzhansky district, the Sudzha checkpoint, the villages of Gordeevka in the Korenevsky district and #Kozino in the Rylsky district.
💥In the #DPR, Nazi strikes on the village of #Aleksandrovka in the Petrovsky district of #Donetsk killed a man born in 1972 and a woman born in 1975, and wounded a woman born in 1954. 13 shellings were recorded, the AFU fired 29 munitions using 155 mm calibre artillery, including cluster-type artillery, attack UAVs and kamikaze UAVs. #Donetsk, #Gorlovka and the Volnovakha district came under fire from the AFU.
🎬 #Zaporozhye direction – 152mm work on AFU supports.💥

https://t.me/two_majors/24471

Posted by: Down South | May 20 2024 6:33 utc | 138

Our source reports that at Bankova and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine there is a table of priority units/brigades/military units that provide better and always to everyone. The rest receive according to the residual principle or even sit on the leftovers.
The selection principle is simple – loyalty to the power of ZeErmak. The more positive the relationship of the unit/brigade/military unit towards Zelensky and Ermak, the higher they are in the table. The more negativity and criticism from the unit/brigade/military unit towards ZeErmak, the lower it is in the table and the worse it is provided for.
Ermak even divided the army into his own and “not his own.”

https://t.me/legitimniy/17977

Posted by: Down South | May 20 2024 6:35 utc | 139

Summary: British Special Operations in Ukraine
General Bryan Fenton of the U.S. Special Operations Command revealed that the Pentagon has been learning about the Ukraine war through British special operations partners, who are testing new warfare approaches. British units have been advising on drone usage and Black Sea navigation.
Reports of significant involvement of British forces include:
– British Deputy Chief of Defence Staff Royal Marines Lieutenant General Robert Magowan stated that hundreds of Marines conducted high-risk operations with Ukrainian forces from April 2022.
– Polish journalist Zbigniew Parafianowicz reported encounters with British special forces in Bucha, operating with artillery tracking radars.
– German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz confirmed British support for launching Storm Shadow cruise missiles, essential for operational success.
The British role highlights the broader NATO involvement in Ukraine, with increasing calls for expanded participation from other European states.

https://t.me/sitreports/27927

Posted by: Down South | May 20 2024 6:39 utc | 140

Популярность Зеленского в ВСУ не превышает 20% — СВР РФ
▪️Запад обеспокоен “катастрофическим падением” поддержки населением руководства Украины, рейтинг Зеленского опустился до 17%.
▪️Зеленский чувствует уязвимость своих позиций и отчаянно пытается избавиться от “неблагонадежных”,
▪️Зеленский запустил широкую медийную кампанию с разоблачением надуманного заговора руководства управления государственной охраны Украины с целью убийства главы государства, подчеркнуло ведомство.
Zelensky’s popularity in the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not exceed 20% – Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation
▪️The West is concerned about the “catastrophic drop” in popular support for the leadership of Ukraine, Zelensky’s rating has dropped to 17%. ▪️Zelensky feels the vulnerability of his position and is desperately trying to get rid of the “unreliable”,
▪️Zelensky launched a wide media campaign exposing the far-fetched conspiracy of the leadership of the State Guard of Ukraine to assassinate the head of state, the department stressed.
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/68587

Posted by: guest | May 20 2024 6:43 utc | 141

Posted by: Roger | May 19 2024 15:10 utc | 14

…………………………………………………
In total: 1,880 troops (at least 2,000 with undercounting), 2 tanks, 8 AFV/IFV, 28 motor vehicles, 18 artillery pieces.
The troop losses are now above the previous 1,500 – 2,000 a day range. Artillery losses are extremely high at 18 in one day. Only 2 tanks and 8 AFV/IFV vs. 28 motor vehicles points to the increasing “infantry + technicals” nature of the Ukrainian army.
……………………..
Posted by: Roger | May 19 2024 15:10 utc | 14

its not so easy 🙂
1 ) its 20 artillery pieces !
2 ) since 01.03.24 we have, with one exception, weekly figures above 80 (with 117 as the peak)
3) on 11.05. the highest number of artillery pieces destroyed so far was 45 !! — this is extremely high in one day
( at least since 01.10.2023 )
that brings the week from 11.-17.05.24 to 197 !!!
and before anyone attributes these figures to the Sever Group :
on 11.05. there were ONLY 8 out of 45
the motor vehicles are also nothing new; as an example –> on 01.01.2024 there were 20 destroyed vehicles

Posted by: ghiwen | May 20 2024 7:55 utc | 142

To add on the evil of banderite regime, here’s two more examples. Donetsk civilians have been shelled not only by the nazis themselves, but also by mobilized Donbas policemen (from Mariupol and such, even some who ran from the rebelling territories), who were forced to fire on their own neighbors and friends. The scum has been prioritizing sending eastern ukrainians to kill each other from the very start.
Another example, banderite UAV operators who fail to spot a soldier rotation or otherwise unable to hit a military target will not want to return the drone with a live explosive, thus some will intentionally hunt any civilian if in the area to use up their combat load. It’s a sport for them.

Posted by: boneless | May 20 2024 7:59 utc | 143

Last Ukraine open thread, a deep discussion on the four letter vocabulary. This one on the joys of killing civilians. May as well be reading some teenage bullshit site.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 20 2024 1:25 utc | 90

There’s a pretty stable core of retirees, delinquents and outpatients – infowar ponces – going at it. Nowhere does say we can’t object to scabs trying to crap under the tables but it’s really b’s burden to intervene now and then to set an upper limit on sponsored content, not that I’m averse to the odd punch up.

Posted by: anon2020 | May 20 2024 8:04 utc | 144

Fearless John – @European_dissident Forwarded from 
Wartime Media – Ukraine / Russia / China / Etc

THIS WEEK IS the 10th anniversary of one of the most astonishingly successful predictions of modern journalism.
On May 13, 2014, legendary investigative journalist John Pilger wrote an article in the UK Guardian titled: “In Ukraine, the US is dragging us towards war with Russia”.
The US had taken control of Ukraine and would use it to provoke Russia into getting involved, Pilger prophesied. The result would be a Nato war in Europe.
“Nato’s military encirclement [of Russia] has accelerated, along with US-orchestrated attacks on ethnic Russians in Ukraine,” Pilger wrote.
“If Putin can be provoked into coming to their aid, his pre-ordained ‘pariah’ role will justify a Nato-run guerrilla war that is likely to spill into Russia itself.”
The resulting CIA-manufactured war would be portrayed by the media as a Russian attack. Vladimir Putin would be “subjected to a western media campaign of vilification”, he wrote.
… TURNING HISTORY UPSIDE DOWN
How was the US working to trigger a conflict? Ethnic Russians in Ukraine (one third of the population were Russian speakers) were being treated so badly that Putin would have no option but to come to their aid.
History was already being turned upside down, Pilger argued. “We in the west are now backing neo-Nazis in a country where Ukrainian Nazis backed Hitler.”
Pilger had no doubt that the United States was running Ukraine, and America’s foreign policy was dictated by the CIA. Ukraine was run “as a CIA theme park”, he said.
.… BLAMING THE VICTIMS
When the Ukrainian government bussed thugs to Odessa, where they burned the trade union headquarters, killing 41 Russian speakers trapped inside (while the police watched without interfering), the victims were blamed.
The Wall Street Journal’s headline was “Deadly Ukraine Fire Likely Sparked by Rebels, Government Says”.’
Pilger described the British as frequent “collaborators” with the US.
Perhaps the most shocking thing of all is that the article was printed in the UK Guardian – a paper that today has, like the rest of the western media, followed the CIA script to the letter, beatifying the US/ Nato/ Ukrainian side, exonerating Ukraine’s Nazi elements, and vilifying Putin.
John Pilger died at the age of 84 in December last year, and was himself vilified by the western media for saying that China showed the world that a nation can rise peacefully without wars

https://t.me/European_dissident/53758

Posted by: Melaleuca | May 20 2024 8:06 utc | 145

Chronicles of Russian powerlessness.
Belgorod
2024/18/05, Two Majors : #Belgorod region is under constant enemy strikes. As a result of the evening attack two civilians were wounded. Also, an AFU FPV struck Novaya Naumovka, Belgorod district (3 km from the border), one civilian was killed and another wounded. The arrival of a kamikaze drone was reported in #Shebekino.
2024/20/05, Two Majors : In the #Belgorod region, civilians are killed and wounded by the AFU strikes. #Shebekino was shelled from the AFU MLRS, 11 people were injured, among them 3 children. In #Rzhevka, Shebekinsky urban district, 2 more civilians were wounded as a result of shelling. In #Belgorod, a drone flew into the window of an apartment building, debris fell on an 11-year-old girl playing on a playground in the courtyard.
Despite being claimed as captured several times, Netailovo is still partially occupied
2024/20/05, Two Majors : In the #SouthDonetsk direction, our troops are fighting in #Paraskoviyevka (west of #Novomikhaylovka) and in #Krasnogorovka. Most of #Netaylovo is occupied.
The Ukrainian army does still have plenty of shells and drones. Rabotino is still contested. For inexplicable reasons, the Russian army persists in attacking and occupying this heap of ruins, exposing itself in the process, while the resident bar strategists do assure us that they are doing the exact oppposite by setting up firebags and letting the Ukies burn themselves in it. On the ground, it’s literally the exact opposite.
2024/20/05, Two Majors : The #Zaporozhye front is characterised by the actions of our infantry groups in #Rabotino under enemy artillery and drone fire. Information from the media about the advance of the RFAF towards #Gulyaypole has not been confirmed from the ground.
Same as with Netailovo ; despite recurring claims of capture, it’s only partially occupied (what does this even mean ? it’s the same as this inane terme, “semi-encirclement”. A bit like being half-pregnant if you ask me…
2024/20/05, Two Majors : West of #Avdeyevka, the RFAF are advancing in #Umanskoye, most of which has been cleared of the enemy, and near #Yasnoborodovka.
The capture of Avdiivka has absolutely not stopped Ukrainian shelling of DPR cities. For an army suffering of shell shortage, the Ukrainians do seem to have some reserves.
2024/18/05, Two Majors : In the #DPR, #Donetsk, #Makeyevka and #Gorlovka were hit by the enemy. Eight civilians were wounded.

Posted by: Micron | May 20 2024 8:06 utc | 146

Zelensky’s popularity in the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not exceed 20% – Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation
▪️The West is concerned about the “catastrophic drop” in popular support for the leadership of Ukraine, Zelensky’s rating has dropped to 17%. ▪️Zelensky feels the vulnerability of his position and is desperately trying to get rid of the “unreliable”,
▪️Zelensky launched a wide media campaign exposing the far-fetched conspiracy of the leadership of the State Guard of Ukraine to assassinate the head of state, the department stressed.

I think this is cope, or wishful thinking. Either the rating isn’t so bad as announced, or the Ukrainian soldiers make a difference between hating Zelensky and fighting for their country. They do still have plenty of morale, or else they wouldn’t resist stubbornly over 1000 km of frontline.
In the end, it makes no difference. Plenty of German soldiers had their doubt about their leadership, but most fought till the end because in their minds it was also about Germany and its future.

Posted by: Micron | May 20 2024 8:08 utc | 147

Posted by: UWDude | May 19 2024 20:53 utc | 59

It is as unimperator said, a sign of weakness, of inability to control the battlefield.

Mmh. I have a different hypothesis. To me the reason ukrops shell civilian areas in Russia is to satisfy their Western paymasters. The deal between Western political elites and ukrops is: you corrupt ukrops hurt Russia by whatever means for as long as possible, we Western honchos give you Treasure from the Western taxpayer. It’s that simple really. A hit and run business.

Posted by: Johan Kaspar | May 20 2024 8:22 utc | 148

That’s how Ukraine will win, because they are losing less territory a month than the Russians are: ukraine loses -0.01% to -0.02% of its territory a month, and Russia loses 0%. negatives are less than 0.
And when is Putin going to do something about the shelling of donetsk? He should invade Ukraine and defend DPR and LPR, or something.

Posted by: UWDude | May 20 2024 8:31 utc | 149

I think this is cope, or wishful thinking:
Posted by: Micron | May 20 2024 8:08 utc | 147
We dont care about your cope and wishful thinking about the morale of the Ukrainian Army.

Posted by: UWDude | May 20 2024 8:34 utc | 150

That’s how Ukraine will win, because they are losing less territory a month than the Russians are: ukraine loses -0.01% to -0.02% of its territory a month, and Russia loses 0%. negatives are less than 0.
And when is Putin going to do something about the shelling of donetsk? He should invade Ukraine and defend DPR and LPR, or something.
Posted by: UWDude | May 20 2024 8:31 utc | 149

Yes, so in about 150 years Russia will at last reach the Polish border. Great. While losing A-50s, planes, tens of thousands of people, oil refineries, 300 billion dollars, while NATO and the US are losing… What exactly ?
And then suppose they reach the Polish border. Suddenly NATO will throw its hands in the air and say “aw shucks… Guess we did lose after all… Can we be friends again ?” Is that how you envision the end game ?
In the real world, you have politicians like Jean-Louis Bourlanges requesting that France give official permission to Ukraine to strike Russian territory with NATO weapons, following the UK and US go-ahead. The Empire is less and less afraid of Russia.
People like you are stuck in a false paradigm. You frame this conflict as being about Ukraine “winning” or “losing”. While at the same time clamouring that the whole of NATO is fighting against Russia. Be coherent. Is it the Ukraine, or NATO ? And if it is NATO, who cares about Ukraine losing 500.000 men ? The question becomes : how can Russia assert its will against the NATO bloc ?

Posted by: Micron | May 20 2024 8:50 utc | 151

I’ll say it again in the simplest possible terms.
NATO is not afraid of openly threatening Russia and striking its assets and deep rear via Ukraine interposed. It is slowly lifting all its self-imposed restrictions and is inches away of openly declaring itself as a co-belligerent.
Russia is afraid of striking NATO and has not dared touching the smallest NATO asset.
Ergo, Russia thinks it is at a stategic disadvantage against NATO and is afraid to escalate.
Ergo, Russia views itself as in a position of weakness.
I think the above is unarguable. So then the big question for all you blusterin’ barflies out there : how does Russia get out of a such a situation and reestablishes deterrence ?

Posted by: Micron | May 20 2024 8:53 utc | 152

“Yes, so in about 150 years Russia will at last reach the Polish border. ”
Posted by: Micron | May 20 2024 8:50 utc | 151
I said Ukraine will win this war because it is losing less land than Russia is losing, because negative is less than zero.
“People like you are stuck in a false paradigm.”
“Is it the Ukraine, or NATO ?”
And if it is NATO, who cares about Ukraine losing 500.000 men ? The question becomes : how can Russia assert its will against the NATO bloc ?
Posted by: Micron | May 20 2024 8:50 utc | 151
False paradigm is saying it’s one or the other. It’s both.
“And if it is NATO, who cares about Ukraine losing 500.000 men ”
Posted by: Micron | May 20 2024 8:50 utc | 151
It’s both. And definitely, I change my statement, NATO will win because Ukraine lost 500,000 soldiers, not because it is losing less territory than Russia.
This whole Ukrainian war has been a delightful demonstration of NATO power, and definitely a resounding victory.
Surely, more victories in Europe like this, and NATO will rule the world. I mean, who cares about 500,000 dead Belgians?

Posted by: UWDude | May 20 2024 9:01 utc | 153

1) Ergo, Russia views itself as in a position of weakness.
2) How does Russia get out of a such a situation and reestablishes deterrence ?
Posted by: Micron | May 20 2024 8:53 utc | 152
1) That it is.
2)yes, because it is in a position of weakness, it should throw all caution to the wind, and just get the war over with. Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead, charge the minefield under daylight.

NATO is not afraid of openly threatening Russia and striking its assets and deep rear via Ukraine interposed. It is slowly lifting all its self-imposed restrictions and is inches away of openly declaring itself as a co-belligerent.
Posted by: Micron | May 20 2024 8:53 utc | 152
Just inches away, NATO has Russia by the balls, can do whatever it wants. Oh man, NATO is winning, can do whatever it wants, except directly declare itself as co-belligerent. But it is just inches awat from doing so, im tellin ya. And it hasn’t yet because it is so not afraid of Russia’s response. Yup, that cowardice of using a proxy is actually stoic confidence. But dont worry, any day now NATO is going all in to win.

Posted by: UWDude | May 20 2024 9:11 utc | 154

NATO is not afraid of openly threatening Russia and striking its assets and deep rear via Ukraine interposed. It is slowly lifting all its self-imposed restrictions and is inches away of openly declaring itself as a co-belligerent.
Russia is afraid of striking NATO and has not dared touching the smallest NATO asset.
Ergo, Russia thinks it is at a stategic disadvantage against NATO and is afraid to escalate
Posted by: Micron | May 20 2024 8:53 utc | 152
Has NATO declared itself a co-belligerent? Have they done anything more than send weapons to Ukraine – the same thing they’ve been doing for the last ten years?
Until they (NATO/US/West) start doing something different than they have been, and do so openly, then Russia has no reason to escalate against them. Russia hasn’t escalated to that degree yet, because there is no need to. When Russia escalates to the point that it is ready to go to war with NATO/US/West you will know.
You wouldn’t like Russia when it escalates to that point, with China right behind them. If you live in France you probably won’t live very long after that, so no point in speculating on the what ifs. But just know that restraint is not a sign of weakness, but of strength.

Posted by: James M. | May 20 2024 9:12 utc | 155

Two notable anniversaries:
May 20th 2023 – Russian forces took Bakhmut.
May 20th 2022 – Liberation of Mariupol.

Posted by: Old Sovietologist | May 20 2024 9:19 utc | 156

Archetypex @ May 20 2024 4:06 utc | 131

The guys that dropped the bombs in Japan didn’t really know what they were unleashing.

This claim unfortuanotely is wrong. You can watch the interviews on youtube.
Not only did they know a single bomb of a new type would be sent under maximum security but it was to be targeted at a city center.
They knew the distance they had to reach from the parachute retarded bomb to be safe and to use googles against the flash as well as to prepare for turbulence at that distance. A pilot knows this would not be a firecracker.
All major Japanese cities in the south (bomber range) had already been firebombed with a few 100 thousand incinerated.
They knew, so did USAF and RAF bomber commands.
Hamburg was initially unexpected but firebomb attacks were simulated on German roof structures to find the right ammo mix.
Every bomb run after was calculated, same with bombing the reservoirs in Germany.
Maybe read about nuclear plans for the Korean war as well as Operation Linebacker in Vietnam and the use of Agent Orange..
They all knew.

Posted by: SOS | May 20 2024 9:30 utc | 157

NATO and the US are losing… What exactly ?
–micron
Ukraine. That means no more continental bonus of 5 armies. Also, Russia gets a card. Fingers crossed for another cannon.

Posted by: UWDude | May 20 2024 9:33 utc | 158

The arms dealer Zelenskyj has received a new online order from a regular customer! He needs two Patriot air defense systems for quick delivery! Gladly as a gift for a better profit margin.
Who can help him?

Posted by: TopCashback | May 20 2024 9:34 utc | 159

The arms dealer Zelenskyj has received a new online order from a regular customer! He needs two Patriot air defense systems for quick delivery! Gladly as a gift for a better profit margin.
Who can help him?
Posted by: TopCashback | May 20 2024 9:34 utc | 159
Act now! His presidency expires tomorrow!

Posted by: UWDude | May 20 2024 9:41 utc | 160

I’ll say it again in the simplest possible terms.
NATO is not afraid of openly threatening Russia and striking its assets and deep rear via Ukraine interposed. It is slowly lifting all its self-imposed restrictions and is inches away of openly declaring itself as a co-belligerent.
Russia is afraid of striking NATO and has not dared touching the smallest NATO asset.
Ergo, Russia thinks it is at a stategic disadvantage against NATO and is afraid to escalate.
Ergo, Russia views itself as in a position of weakness.
I think the above is unarguable. So then the big question for all you blusterin’ barflies out there : how does Russia get out of a such a situation and reestablishes deterrence ?
Posted by: Micron | May 20 2024 8:53 utc | 152

The ‘US is allowing Ukraine to strike Russian rear area’ is pure BS. They have always provided all the ISR to Ukraine to hit whatever target in Russian rear. This is again the trash talk (watch Martyanov’s new video) they use to package old things into something presented as a new thing (again another game changer).

Posted by: unimperator | May 20 2024 9:47 utc | 161

So who deliberately targeted civilians?
Who knows!
Posted by: Archetypex | May 20 2024 5:42 utc | 136
And if the barrels are worn down (inaccurate), targeting radars have been destroyed, you have an expensive weapon just sitting there, and a big pile of shells, waiting for yourself or your units asset to be bombed, you are in the middle of a woods/field with nothing to do, and anyone in that decision ladder had the Russians kill their —– fill in the blank, or they remember the Holdomor, or they were brainwashed with electronic propaganda, possibly pychopathic/sadistic, those radioed/Starlink coordinates are just numbers to the artillery crew.
The sound of “our guys” artillery shelling travels for miles, hearing distinctively both behind the friendly lines that’s our guys supporting us, then hearing it far away that’s our enemy army being destroyed. If it hits something at night and makes it burn it acts as a beacon fire. It is a type of morale boost. We are not out here in the middle of nowhere alone, waiting to die. Someone, a greater power, has our backs. It is a type of communication. The Greeks used to use bullroarers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Uhj7iQhwZA
TE Lawrence wrote about the effect of artillery in 7 Pillars of Wisdom. Just the sound of the artillery had an outsized effect on the Bedouin tribes. In a certain sense it is a variation of drums, fife, bagpipes except it has lethal effects as well.
Lawrence wrote about how he got caught up in massacring the poor SOB retreating Turks, even though he knew morally and strategically better. It’s in the movie Lawrence of Arabia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W29W0Fh_qng
There is a saying to not ascribe evil when ignorance is just as, or more likely the cause.
War is a profound type of ignorance.
Of course targeting civilians is wrong.
But if you are filled with hate it will seem right.

Posted by: jopalolive | May 20 2024 9:50 utc | 162

When the big guns go silent, there is no electricity for radio/starlink/internet, supplies/ammo become intermittent, no friendly drones over head, morale will collapse.
From reports it seems as if there are more drones in Kherson/Zaporhizye regions. Logistics are easier/better? Or higher priority to defend?

Posted by: jopalolive | May 20 2024 10:16 utc | 163

Posted by: Melaleuca | May 20 2024 8:06 utc | 145
on Pilget 2014 – gosh that was good.

Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 20 2024 10:30 utc | 164

Re: Posted by: Jake Blanchard | May 19 2024 23:04 utc | 72

So what makes you respect the Rules of Boxing Sport, but disregard long established Rules of War? You seriously need to study the evolution of wars throughout history and better keep up to date with the evolution of human morality. You sound like your perspective is stuck back in Mongol times — ie, kill everyone and everything that gets in your way of conquering lands and people you desire. You say you disagree with war(s) per se, but once declared, anything goes. Perhaps that’s why the SMO is an SMO and not an all out war against the Ukrainian people.

There are no rules in love and war – you should know this.
If you’ve never fought for a girl and outfought a dozen other guys to do so – pertussis you don’t know what the phrase means – it means you do whatever it takes to WIN.
Was it legal for the Americans to drop nuclear bombs on Japanese civilians – I bet it wasn’t – but they WON the war didn’t they.

Posted by: Julian | May 20 2024 10:51 utc | 165

No, there is no grey to it. If you deliberately target civilians you are not a soldier, you are a murderer and terrorist.
Posted by: nook | May 20 2024 3:21 utc | 124
According to who? Yes there is an agreement that most countries are signatory to that has codifies the rule of law around warfare but who enforces it? Are NATO countries going to enforce the law against their proxy? Nope. Then how about sanctions and arrest warrants from Russia? They have to win the war in order to enforce them and their relationship with Ukraine has fallen well beyond sanctions. So what happens is Ukraine shells civilians, Russia points fingers and goes boo hoo, western media sees and hears nothing and the war continues.
The point is there is we live in a jungle where there is no higher authority to enforce laws than the nation state. The remedy under law are sanctions and military force which always punish the innocent civilians the laws claim to protect and leave the perpetrators free to keep doing what they’re doing.
You mentioned ‘terrorism’. Terrorism is a legitimate form of warfare. One mans terrorist is another mans freedom fighter. The only remedy to terrorism is to defeat the terrorists militarily which is just one nation state forcing their will on another. Jungle rules.

Posted by: HB_Norica | May 20 2024 10:54 utc | 166

It’s both. And definitely, I change my statement, NATO will win because Ukraine lost 500,000 soldiers, not because it is losing less territory than Russia.
This whole Ukrainian war has been a delightful demonstration of NATO power, and definitely a resounding victory.
Surely, more victories in Europe like this, and NATO will rule the world. I mean, who cares about 500,000 dead Belgians?
Posted by: UWDude | May 20 2024 9:01 utc | 153

You are avoiding the subject. The whole Ukrainian war has indeed demonstrated NATO power. Recall that before the war it was common knowledge among the 5D-crowd that NATO wouldn’t last more than two weeks in a conventional war.
Then March 22 happened, and the 5D crowd started explaining that acshually, the reason why the SMO has been slogging along for two years is because NATO is supplying Ukraine and has helped it build impenetrable defenses. So yeah, effectively NATO has blocked Russia’s ambitions for two years already, that’s quite a feat.
Recall that Putin himself acknowledged that not everything got according to plan recently. Oh dear, if even Putin is becoming a traitor, where are we going…

Posted by: Micron | May 20 2024 11:06 utc | 167

Has NATO declared itself a co-belligerent? Have they done anything more than send weapons to Ukraine – the same thing they’ve been doing for the last ten years?
Until they (NATO/US/West) start doing something different than they have been, and do so openly, then Russia has no reason to escalate against them. Russia hasn’t escalated to that degree yet, because there is no need to. When Russia escalates to the point that it is ready to go to war with NATO/US/West you will know.

So if someone comes to you in the street and starts beating you, punching you in the face, and doing plastic surgery with a baseball bat, you won’t react if he says “don’t worry, I’m not really attacking you, it’s not me, I’m not a threat !”
If you can’t see the creeping escalation that has been happening over the last two years, I can’t really do anything for you, it’s clear you are blinded to reality.
You wouldn’t like Russia when it escalates to that point, with China right behind them. If you live in France you probably won’t live very long after that, so no point in speculating on the what ifs. But just know that restraint is not a sign of weakness, but of strength.
Posted by: James M. | May 20 2024 9:12 utc | 155

I don’t know whoever invented this, but it’s really the lamest soundbite I have ever heard. I will use it next time I lose a tennis match. “Yeah you know, I didn’t want to go all in on you… Restraint is a sign of strength, so I told myself that I’d much rather lose 6-2 6-2 than crush you, because, year, I guess it would mean I’m weak… ” By that logic the number 1000 in the world is a lot better than Djokovic or Sinner 😉

Posted by: Micron | May 20 2024 11:10 utc | 168

The ‘US is allowing Ukraine to strike Russian rear area’ is pure BS. They have always provided all the ISR to Ukraine to hit whatever target in Russian rear. This is again the trash talk (watch Martyanov’s new video) they use to package old things into something presented as a new thing (again another game changer).
Posted by: unimperator | May 20 2024 9:47 utc | 161

So it’s even worse that what I’m saying. It means NATO has been attacking Russia for two years using as transparent a figleaf as possible, and Russia hasn’t dared even shooting down a Reaper in response. While the Houthis have downed 4 and are attacking NATO boats ! And Iran has actually attacked US bases.
Pitiful, really.

Posted by: Micron | May 20 2024 11:12 utc | 169

More from MK Bhadrakumar‘s “moderate” Nuland, who’s always been infamous, so it’s not open to him to plead ignorance.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/111034

🇺🇸🇺🇦 Full video of Victoria Nuland’s Freudian slip, where she calls for escalation and pushes for the US to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons to target Russia.

Posted by: anon2020 | May 20 2024 11:20 utc | 170

From New Eastern Outlook: https://journal-neo.su/2024/05/18/putins-only-real-fear-nato-imbeciles/

Putin’s Only Real Fear: NATO Imbeciles
Poland’s Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, said, “Russian President Vladimir Putin should fear a war with NATO.” In a chest-thumping address before the Sejm, the lower house of his country’s parliament, the former debating club champion predicted Russia’s imminent defeat should Putin dare attack.
This is how we know NATO would not stand a chance. When former Washington think tank “generals” who are not soldiers predict victory, it usually means a strategic situation is desperate. Sikorski, whose genius is revealed in the scores of photos with him and Donald Rumsfeld, Hillary Clinton, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and others, will be first on a plane for Tahiti if war does break out. The potential fallout of such a conflict is so severe that he and other members of the infamous Bilderberg Group will all jet to remote islands where the impact will be minimal. Let me explain.
Let’s pretend that Poland’s 500 dilapidated tanks were to toe the front line along with however many of Germany’s 200-something rusty Leopards at the onset of WW3. With a few tens of thousands of US, French, reluctant Italians, and Romanians, and the stalwart Brits thrown in during the first days, the East of Poland and Romania would quickly resemble Dresden, Germany, at the end of WW2. NATO’s biggest problem is putting American and UK boots on the ground on a front that would be over 2500 miles long. You see, it’s not only the Russians who have a problem with long borders to defend. Russia has about 13,000 tanks and 4,500 aircraft, despite what Bloomberg experts may tell you.
The problem with Western propaganda is that the propagandists end up believing their own lies. The rationale for decades has been that the U.S.S.R. or later Russia, has not attacked because of NATO. If memory serves me, it has never been to Russia on the offensive. Still, the fear is stoked for the obvious reasons. Money for guns and missiles that may or may not work. In Ukraine, I am told, all the amazing German tanks sent to help Zelensky are burned-out hulks now, and the air defence systems are virtually worthless against hordes of drones. Just because Mr. Putin has not called up another 2,000,000 reservists or made a killer thrust through Belarus into Northeastern Ukraine does not mean he cannot. The problem with Sikorski and those like him is that the rest of NATO (however unfit) IS NOT THERE! The Russians and Belarusians are.
The Germans have not defeated France and other wishy-washy nations, the best Western armies have not assembled 100 divisions for a new Operation Barbarossa, and even if the West had, Russia would still never lose. The best NATO could ever hope for would be a draw. And the world at the end of hostilities, in this no-win, would be some dystopian nightmare. As for Poland and Romania, even Turkey and other frontline nations? 6,000 nuclear warheads launched at as many targets would ensure Russia loses no more than NATO. This is what Radoslaw Sikorski doesn’t seem to get. If Russia decided to invade NATO countries, then the decision to go nuclear (if need be) would have already been made.
Russia is not afraid of Poland or NATO. Vladimir Putin and his countrymen stand nothing to gain from all-out war. This is why the Russians will never attack in force. This is why Ukraine has not already been decimated. The holding action the Russian military has been in since Kherson was taken has been to preserve Russian lives, and the lives of civilians in Ukraine. Russians consider the Ukrainians as brothers and sisters. Only America’s NATO push and re-indoctrination of the people in Ukraine are the main causes of this conflict. Western media does not tell citizens in Iowa, USA or Manchester, England, that Russia’s military operation is a defensive one. All anyone reads, sees, or hears are broadcasts and subliminal messages painting Russians and Putin as barbarians.
Watch any Netflix series long enough, and some bad old Russians will pop up sooner or later. Ditto for Amazon Prime, cable, network TV, and every newspaper in the United States. Imagine the magnitude! As far as I can recall, the only times Russia has gone military have been when the United States tried to give them “their own vietnam,” as deceased Russia hater Zbigniew Brzezinski coined the Afghanistan affair.
The only thing Vladimir Putin fears about Poland or NATO is that imbeciles like Radoslaw Sikorski may finally stir their people to do the unthinkable. Putin fears, as I do, the false bravado and lies from the mouths of Bilderberg creeps.

We can see some recent examples of this “The problem with Western propaganda is that the propagandists end up believing their own lies.” in this very thread…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 20 2024 11:25 utc | 171

Electrical power shortages continue: https://ukranews.com/en/news/1007220-ukrenergo-explains-when-power-outages-will-be-canceled

Ukrenergo explains when power outages will be canceled
An increase in air temperature will make it possible to avoid power outages at night and in the morning. However, generally, during the summer, fall and next winter, blackouts may still apply.
This was stated by Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the board chairperson of Ukrenergo, on the air of the Yedyni Novyny telethon.
“As we announced, tomorrow from 6 p.m. to midnight, hourly shutdown schedules will probably be applied for industrial enterprises and the population due to the fact that the power system does not have enough capacity to cover the evening peak of consumption,” the official emphasized.
Weather conditions will soon be more favorable; the temperature will rise. Accordingly, consumption will be slightly lower than last week.
“Therefore, we hope that this will make it possible to avoid blackouts at night, as was the case in some places this week, and also during the period of morning peak consumption,” the board chairperson noted.
Kudrytskyi added that this could last at least during the summer, autumn, and next winter.
“Under these conditions, the lights will be turned off until the generation is restored. It will take months. And this is provided that there is no new enemy shelling,” he concluded.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the Cabinet of Ministers expects to significantly decentralize the energy system during the second half of 2024.
On May 16, the director of the Energy Research Center, Oleksandr Kharchenko, said that Ukraine will have to live with a shortage of electricity for at least the next two years.
Also, on May 16, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi said that the situation in the energy system may improve as early as next week, but it will not be possible to completely avoid blackouts either in summer or autumn.

~~~
https://ukranews.com/en/news/1007280-thanks-to-warming-electricity-deficit-decreases-but-it-is-still-significant

Thanks to warming, electricity deficit decreases, but it is still significant
Thanks to the warming and sunny weather, the deficit of electricity in the power system has decreased somewhat, but in the evening and night hours, its shortage is significant.
This was reported by the press service of the Ukrenergo national energy company, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
“Because of this, on May 20, for the period from 18:00 to 24:00 in all regions of Ukraine, hourly shutdown schedules will be in effect for industrial and household consumers. They can be applied in case of exceeding the defined volumes of consumption limits, which the dispatch center of Ukrenergo has already demonstrated to each regional energy company,” the message says.
According to the report, on May 19, in order to overcome the deficit in the energy system, at the request of Ukrenergo, the emergency supply of electricity to Ukraine from 12:00 to 8:00 a.m. and from 7:00 p.m. to 12:00 a.m. from the power systems of Romania, Poland, and Slovakia was activated.
On the night of May 20, from 12:00 to 7:00 a.m., emergency aid from European countries was also used.
During the day, it is planned to import electricity from Romania, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, and Moldova with a total volume of 19,499 MWh, with the maximum capacity in individual hours up to 1,415 MW.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, Ukraine received emergency aid from the energy systems of three EU countries at night and in the morning.

And yet, according to some posters, none of this is attritional…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 20 2024 11:33 utc | 172

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang @ 172
The plan was Ukraine would provide abundant cheap electricity to the EU, now it’s EU providing limited expensive electricity to Ukraine, so much for best laid plans. The blown up gas storage facilities in western Ukraine are a very clear signal Russia will not be renewing its gas contracts with the west when they expire, I know, no shit Sherlock.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 20 2024 11:39 utc | 173

Daily Willy map: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hX7aFbUil4g (north to south order)
TLDR: several small advances.
[Do not get confused by the number. This is still a very small pace versus total territory and less pace than the few days were the N advance started. Better than yesterday, but still not great. “Muh stalemate”.]
Kharkiv:
No significant advances, either salient. DS shows advances, but small and still catching up to what other maps have (DS still behind). [Not the Dima comments about RFA controlling south of the river in Vovchansk are silly. One infiltrator got FPVed, under the bridge…and Dima says ‘probably, most likely RFA controls the south bank.
Berestove (SE of Kupiansk): couple fields taken.
Chasiv Yar: no movement on DS map. Suriyak shows an advance to the south.
Klishivka: Suriyak shows an advance. DS does not. Willy points out that this is the start of going after New York. [Yes, they have a town called that…should be New New York, I guess. Still well to the S. But does go after a road that supplies NNYC. Still well south, along that road, so doesn’t interdict supplies, yet. But if RFA advanced 10 klicks or so, they could interdict supplies.]
Avdiivka area: (most updates)
Keramik: DS shows an advance in fields to the E. Suriyak shows same.
Seminivka/Berdichi: DS shows advance in the fields…towards a couple of Novo towns. Suriyak shows same.
Umanske: No advance and DS still lagging other mappers to show RFA in part of the town (does show it gray though).
Netalove: advance along road and some fields to north.
Kraz: no changes.
Novomyk: advance towards Paraskovia (confirmed with geoloc). Also a field to the south.
Urozh: no changes
Robotyne: Probably not an advance, but just a correction/admission of DS. “Green finger” inside Robo is gone. Whole town is gray. [Probably fair…it’s flattened and both sides have overwatch ability, so hard to stay inside the town.] RFA increased to the south and SE of the pocket, also called Verbove area. [Again, not really a yesterday advance, per se, more of an drip uptate admission from DS of previous status.]

Posted by: Anonymous | May 20 2024 11:48 utc | 174

My bracketed comment after Klishivka, should apply to Keramik instead. (Editing error.)

Posted by: Anonymous | May 20 2024 11:50 utc | 175

RT:

Ukrainian truckers protest against mobilization law (VIDEO)

Ukrainian truckers staged major protests against the country’s new mobilization law on Saturday, the news outlet Strana has reported.
According to new legislation, which came into force on May 18, the drivers can be drafted into the military when they re-enter the country from abroad.
“We need to staff the reserves,” Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said in an interview with AFP on Friday, explaining measures taken to bolster the country’s ranks.
“A large number” of Kiev’s brigades “are empty,” which doesn’t allow for the “normal rotation” of troops, he complained.
Dozens of trucks blocked a key highway connecting Ukraine’s capital Kiev and the port city of Odessa, the outlet reported on Friday.
According to a video posted on Telegram by one of the participants of the protests, the drivers came from all over Ukraine, representing Kiev, Odessa, Nikolaev, Vinnitsa, Cherkassy, Ivano-Frankovsk, Chernigov and other cities.
The trucker said that he and his fellow teamsters had staged the event to draw public attention to what he described as the “draconian laws of half-legitimate Zelensky authorities.”
Zelensky has refused to hold the presidential election which had been scheduled to take place in late March, citing martial law being in force in the country due to the conflict with Russia.
His five-year term in office had been set to expire on May 20.
The Association of International Road Carriers of Ukraine complained last month that several truckers had been snatched by enlistment officers in the Transcarpathia Region as they were returning from the EU.
The organization said that it has addressed the government, asking for the practice to stop, arguing that the transportation of cargo is a vital activity for the country’s economy.
An unnamed representative of a Ukrainian transport company told Strana.ua earlier in May that cases have been on the rise where drivers have abandoned their trucks after crossing into the EU and fled to avoid mobilization.
Some men have been obtaining trucker licenses especially for that purpose, the source said.
Zelensky signed a harsh new mobilization law in April amid the troop shortages his country has experienced on the front line.
The legislation lowers the conscription age from 27 to 25, greatly expands the powers of enlistment officers and introduces assorted restrictions for draft dodgers.
RT
Ukrainians who work for betting company shielded from draft

The Ukrainian government has granted mobilization exemptions to workers who do not appear to qualify as essential for a country at war, according to a document released by a member of parliament on Thursday, various outlets reported.

Update: Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Sviridenko wrote on Facebook on Thursday that, “due to the public backlash,” she had “canceled the order on exemptions” and that each case would be examined individually.

Ukrainian lawmaker Aleksandr Fedienko obtained the document produced last month by the Ministry of Economy.
It names several companies whose employees are shielded from the draft. Examples include a sport betting-related concern and several businesses that have foreign owners.
The list includes ‘Favbet Tek’. FavBet is a major gambling operation in Ukraine, and the mentioned firm is believed to be providing it with IT services.
The local branch of the transnational American payment system Visa is also included, as is the Spanish-based courier service Glovo.
Another is AgriChain, an IT subsidiary of the Cyprus-registered Ukrainian agriculture giant Astarta. The Canadian holding Fairfax owns roughly a third of the latter, according to its website.
The list also includes an advertising agency and a single entry that seems to be defense-related – a firm making military equipment.
Fadienko, who sits on the parliamentary commission for digital transformation, said he released the document to highlight what he believes are misguided government rules for which businesses get to keep their employees. Communications companies do not get such protection and have been drained of personnel, he explained.
”They have no one to run around, doing repairs and changing batteries. The remaining workers refuse to go out, because they have no exemptions,” he said, referring to the risk of being caught by a conscription patrol on the street.
Ukraine is bracing for a radical change to its military system this month.
The new rules are intended to boost mobilization rates by introducing harsh punishments for draft avoidance and imposing new responsibility on citizens to report their details to conscription offices.
The government and its Western backers claim that hundreds of thousands of people need to be drafted to relieve frontline troops. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the mobilization drive “a difficult decision, but a necessary one” during his visit to Kiev this week.

Posted by: Melaleuca | May 20 2024 12:03 utc | 176

Full video of Victoria Nuland’s Freudian slip, where she calls for escalation and pushes for the US to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons to target Russia.
Posted by: anon2020 | May 20 2024 11:20 utc | 170
She looks more like Hillary Clinton everyday.

Posted by: Bemildred | May 20 2024 12:07 utc | 177

The pizza restaurant Blinken dined at in Kiev….. not only exhibits Ukrainian nazi symbols and paraphernalia, ~ is owned by a Right Sector luminary.
Excellent reporting, you won’t see in controlled media.
… no telegram account needed.
https://t.me/tupin_vladimir/51874
Really is a “must watch”

Posted by: Melaleuca | May 20 2024 12:17 utc | 178

Political scientist Vladimir Tsybulko commented on the recent statement by Speaker of Parliament Ruslan Stefanchuk that the Verkhovna Rada has no doubt that Zelensky is legitimate, and those who do not have such confidence should contact the Constitutional Court. However, the political scientist noted that according to the latest clarification of the Constitutional Court, Zelensky is illegitimate after May 20.
“Since May 20, everything is simple. There is a decision of the Constitutional Court of May 15, 2014, so let Stefanchuk take it and read it if he pokes us at Zelensky’s legitimacy!” ,” Tsybulko answered Stefanchuk.
Reference: The Constitutional Court of May 15, 2014 noted that the provisions of Art. 103 of the Constitution of Ukraine and its other articles, which define the constitutional and legal status of the President of Ukraine, do not contain rules establishing a term other than five years for which citizens can elect the head of state, regardless of the type of elections (regular or extraordinary). Enshrined Part 1 Art. 103 of the Basic Law, a five-year term is the only constitutionally established term for which the president is elected.
The political scientist said that Ukraine is in a conditional “stretch” position, because important events are coming for our country, including: the world summit, the NATO summit, as well as the EU elections, after which there will be a dialogue regarding Ukraine’s accession to the EU. According to Tsybulko, the Ukrainian authorities are behaving undemocratically.
“But if Stefanchuk is sure that the actions of the authorities contribute to the rapprochement of Ukraine with the European Union, then I deeply doubt it. And Stefanchuk will sit, I suspect, not in the speaker’s chair in the future, and not even in a chair, but on a bench. Because those atrocities that are against the deputy corps… . It’s just that this “dude” out of nowhere imagined that he was a slave owner of people’s deputies. In parliamentarism there are no directors of parliament, all parliamentarians are equal! He’s just a coordinator!”
, Tsibulko emphasized.

https://t.me/rezident_ua/22885

Posted by: Down South | May 20 2024 12:34 utc | 179

So it’s even worse that what I’m saying. It means NATO has been attacking Russia for two years using as transparent a figleaf as possible, and Russia hasn’t dared even shooting down a Reaper in response. While the Houthis have downed 4 and are attacking NATO boats ! And Iran has actually attacked US bases.
Pitiful, really.
Posted by: Micron | May 20 2024 11:12 utc | 169
That’s a poor argument. The difference between the Russians and the Houti’s is the Russians can launch a civilization ending attack on the USA in under 30 minutes while the Houti’s can’t.
Now you would think that means the Russians could attack the Americans with less risk to themselves than the Houtis … you’re wrong. The worst that can happen if the Houti’s sink a US ship is the Americans bomb the crap out of Yemen or maybe Iran. If the Russians sink a US ship or down a US aircraft it could lead to a revenge based escalatory cycle that ends human civilization in an afternoon.
While the Americans might be willing to bet the lives of 90 million Americans the Russians aren’t. I’ll take pitiful over heinous disregard to life on this planet any day.

Posted by: HB_Norica | May 20 2024 12:51 utc | 180

So, from tomorrow do we refer to “ex-President Zelensky” or “former President Zelensky”?
Or how about “the US-backed former President Zelensky”?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 20 2024 13:14 utc | 181

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 20 2024 13:14 utc | 181
you can bet on it that the eu/nato will still refer to him as the legitimate head of state of the territory of ukraine.
wouldnt surprise me if we get a big eu delegation visiting kiev tomorrow congratulating zelensky and assuring him unvavering support or any other theatrics they may pull.
in germany im not even seeing any questions asked about the “what happens after the 21st?”. our nazi government has already said they will give zelensky even more money to kill ethnic russians, just like uncle adolf did. they will keep him in power as a wartime president/hero for life.

Posted by: Justpassinby | May 20 2024 14:05 utc | 182

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 20 2024 13:14 utc | 181
Let’s call Zelinski “the latest US puppet in its new Saigon”.

Posted by: paddy | May 20 2024 14:06 utc | 183

Seems to me that the reason that the Ukrainians attack and shell civilian targets in Russia is to provoke the Russians. Why? Because they have known from the start that their only chance against Russia is to get NATO nations directly fighting on their side. Remember calls from Ukraine for NATO to (try to) impose a no fly zone over Ukraine. Remember Ukraine shelling the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. All trying to provoke a powerful reaction from Russia that would lead to direct NATO intervention.
It has cost Russia to maintain its patience, but clearly the slow grind has been effective. Unfortunately there will be more provocations to come, because the Ukrainians do not understand that the NATO countries cannot, in any meaningful way, directly participate in the conflict.

Posted by: Marduk | May 20 2024 15:04 utc | 184

Legitimate Defense
Russia reopens the Kharkov front to stretch Kiev’s defensive reserves and to fragment Kiev’s ruling class cohesion in the wake of Zelensky’s legitimacy crisis.
https://www.beyondwasteland.net/p/legitimate-defense

Posted by: KevinB | May 20 2024 15:11 utc | 185

It has cost Russia to maintain its patience, but clearly the slow grind has been effective. Unfortunately there will be more provocations to come, because the Ukrainians do not understand that the NATO countries cannot, in any meaningful way, directly participate in the conflict.
Posted by: Marduk | May 20 2024 15:04 utc | 184
I agree that Russia is smart to maintain it’s patience. I also think things changed last month when the Russians attacked a bunker in Kiev using a tsircon missile launched from a ship 750 km away in the Black Sea and struck a bunker that was defended by Patriot missiles before they even knew there were missiles in the air.
If the Russians can attack Kiev from 750 km away and strike before air defences even get a warning they can attack Washington before the president has time to order a nuclear response or get on an aircraft. I believe the American believed the Tsircon was vaporware and they were shocked to see it used in Ukraine. It’s not the ‘first strike’ ramifications that has them worried but the decapitation aspect that could destroy the White House and Pentagon simultaneously severing the chain of command that can order a retaliatory strike. The USA gets obliterated waiting for orders.
The rhetoric remains because no sitting president can admit to such a vunerability and expect to be re-elected but I doubt you’ll see the Americans do anything too provocative against the Russians until they get hypersonic vunerability taken care of.

Posted by: HB_Norica | May 20 2024 15:36 utc | 186

@186
That is not how US’ “deterrent” works.
A glitch could inadvertently trigger MAD.
See the movie Crimson Tide!

Posted by: paddy | May 20 2024 15:39 utc | 187

While the Houthis have downed 4 and are attacking NATO boats ! Pitiful, really.
Posted by: Micron | May 20 2024 11:12 utc | 169
Russia is afraid, Houthis are not.
Russian elite has a deep minority complex.
But there is an important reason why they are afraid. The West does not care about the Houthis, while teh western elite and most of the population wants to see Russia plundered so they can keep up with consumer society.

Posted by: vargas | May 20 2024 15:45 utc | 188

These general threads have deteriorated because of a lack of thoughtful commenters. I miss Shadowbanned and RSH.
Pointless speculation on frontal movements using disreputeable sources like DeepState. Name one village the UAF has taken back in the past six months?
B has better things to do than babysit morons. Better to just read his posts and ignore these threads. RSH sub stack is still going.

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 20 2024 15:51 utc | 189

Russia warn French and British diplomats about those nations’ involvement in the Ukraine war.
But we all know that weak and tail-between-their-legs Russia daren’t lift a finger against NATO assets; so this was no doubt an empty gesture. N’est pas?
Well what was the result of those meetings? Just how loudly did the NATO lions roar in defiance?
Well in Britain, who had been constantly talking up their desire to destroy the Kerch bridge, an article appeared in the mid ranking Independent newspaper, saying “actually there isn’t any military traffic over the Kerch bridge”. So be more derring-do with storm in a teacup shadows over yon bridge for now.
And the French? Well they sent a government minister to join celebrations of Putin’s inauguration. And all talk of French intervention fell silent. Take that you mongol swine! I fart in your general direction!
An interesting pastime in the last two years is to look for coincidences between accidental deaths of NATO senior military personnel and kinjal missile strikes by Russia on NATO assets in Ukraine. After one, the U.S. senior general Potts was reported to have died in a small airplane crash. Sole pilot, no one else involved, no witnesses. After another such strike, a French general apparently fell while mountaineering in the Alps – again alone. At a certain moment Russia started shooting down many more “Ukrainian” aircraft. After this, a report emerged from a Polish NATO base of 20 or more deaths from Legionairres disease.

Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | May 20 2024 15:58 utc | 190

More mess inside Ukraine. Apparently a project to refurbish a turbine-generator for the Rivne NPP has got tangled up in anti-corruption investigations. Full piece here: https://ukranews.com/en/news/1007312-bohdan-ustymenko-how-nacb-disrupts-launch-of-power-unit-at-rivne-npp but here’s the main body of the story:

At the beginning of May 2022, the Czech company, Enerpower, and the Ukrainian Energoatom signed a contract on the overhaul of the turbine generator rotor for the Rivne NPP. It is worth saying that most of the electricity in Ukraine is obtained at power plants that use turbo generators. And if you have faulty equipment, you can only sweeten the salt.
Last summer, Enerpower received an advance of EUR 1,145,000 from Energoatom. At the same time, the Czech company involved the well-known company EthosEnergy Poland S.A. (Poland) as a contractor. According to the contract, after payment of advance to Enerpower, EthosEnergy Poland S.A. had to start the corresponding works. Due to the war in Ukraine and missile attacks on infrastructural and industrial facilities, the vast majority of insurance companies refuse to insure the risks that may be incurred to foreign contractor companies. Such a situation ultimately leads to the withdrawal of foreign contractors from the Ukrainian market. Under such conditions, single companies remain on the market, and agree to certain exclusive works at their own risk.
In the fall of 2023, the rotor from the Rivne NPP was temporarily taken to Poland to the EthosEnergy Poland S.A. plant. For the transportation of this cargo (42.2 tons), specialists carried out extremely complex and unique logistics processes for this particular case. Special permits from three states (Ukraine, Poland, and the Czech Republic) were issued, a complex route was agreed upon, and a rare special vehicle was used for transportation. In addition, significant customs fees were paid when crossing borders. But, as it often happens, “trouble came from nowhere,” and the entire amount of the advance, which Energoatom transferred to Enerpower to the account at Monetabank a.s. NACB detective V. Malyi blocked without any reason, thereby, jeopardizing the launch of the first power unit of the Rivne NPP. What is this but legal arbitrariness during the war?
NACB against light
According to the NACB detectives, during the conclusion and execution of the already-mentioned contracts, some illegal actions allegedly took place. But what do we have as a result? The rotor of the Rivne NPP is now located in Poland at the site of the contractor company’s plant. Since the Polish plant did not receive an advance due to the actions of NACB, the repair work did not even begin. Moreover, the Polish plant charges payments for the storage of nuclear equipment and other fines. Enerpower is even ready to terminate the contract with Energoatom. However, since Enerpower’s account has been blocked due to NACB’s actions, Energoatom cannot return the money. Paradoxically, it is also impossible to return the equipment to the Rivne NPP due to the need to pay the Polish plant for storage of the rotor, customs clearance at the border and its delivery to Ukraine.
But the most critical thing here is not even that. Non-fulfillment of the terms of the contract between Enerpower and Energoatom regarding the overhaul of the rotor entails a disruption of the terms of planned preventive maintenance and disruption of the restoration of Power Unit 1 of the Rivne nuclear power plant (!!!), which in the conditions of martial law and constant missile attacks on energy facilities can lead to the biggest energy disaster during the entire time of the russian federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Dark times
In fact, due to the actions of NACB, today, Energoatom is suffering losses. Due to the criminal actions of the russians, the Ukrainian energy system has already lost 8 GW of capacity; the arbitrariness of NACB increases these losses by another 440 MW. That is, it increases the time of power outages for industry and the population and the risks of blackouts. NACB’s actions also cause financial losses to Ukraine in several dimensions: on the one hand, due to a simple block, according to various estimates, the country loses up to EUR 1 million per day. In addition, due to NACB’s blocking of Enerpower’s account, the foreign company cannot return to Energoatom the advance of EUR 1,145,000. Energoatom cannot close the currency control, which is carried out by the domestic Ministry of Economy, within the stipulated period. And if the currency control is not closed in time, Energoatom will simply be obliged to pay a fine of EUR 1,000 per day. Moreover, in case of violation of the deadline for import payments (180 days), Energoatom is obliged to pay a penalty of 0.3% of the value of the service not received for each day of delay, which will amount to about EUR 3,500 per day (!).

At least Burisma don’t seem to be involved, so far…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 20 2024 16:09 utc | 191

Much talk of Russian fear of NATO and that there´s no corresponding restraint from US/UK.
That´s because the US/UK have descended into lawless Mafiosi-run states.
And such psychopaths like to gamble: they take risks where no sane person would.
So Russia is dealing with a mad, rabid dog and a venomous snake.
So, like any sane person would, Russia treads very, very carefully.
And if the dog/snake doesn´t back off, you kill it outright.
That´s what the US/UK are headed for- particularly that viper´s nest, the City of London.

Posted by: John Marks | May 20 2024 17:00 utc | 192

Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 20 2024 15:51 utc | 189
I only respond to threads that interest me, or feel that my contribution might advance it substantively. As the gormless, Western, mouth-breathers should intone, ‘discrimination is our strength’! SB had useful info from the Russian perspective, but became somewhat of a parody with his ‘nuke them till they glow, then shoot them in the dark’, type of posts, whilst RSH came to resemble a slightly megalomaniacal computer, often encountered by the crew of ‘the USS Enterprise’.
On a separate note, I think I’ve cracked the Russian casualty estimates for the UAF, but need to do some more research. It seems to be a highly detailed series of guestimations that rely on the law of averages to even out any discrepancies, with serious over-estimations balanced by serious under-estimates. Whether this leads to an accurate number is debatable, though the Russians seem to have the forces the required forces needed to complete their combat missions, or deny the Ukrainian’s theirs.
Finally I wish one of the sub-stack analysts would cover the issue of UAF’s hamartic inability to operate above brigade level, versus the Russian’s reversion to Divisional structures, and how that makes it near-impossible for the former to counter the latter, beyond throwing bodies into the line, as witnessed by the recent increased strike-rates and casualty estimations.

Posted by: Milites | May 20 2024 20:00 utc | 193

I don’t know whoever invented this, but it’s really the lamest soundbite I have ever heard. I will use it next time I lose a tennis match. “Yeah you know, I didn’t want to go all in on you… Restraint is a sign of strength, so I told myself that I’d much rather lose 6-2 6-2 than crush you, because, year, I guess it would mean I’m weak… ” By that logic the number 1000 in the world is a lot better than Djokovic or Sinner 😉
Posted by: Micron | May 20 2024 11:10 utc | 168
False analogy Micron. I’ll spell it out for you, so even you can understand. Russia has 7,000 nuclear missiles – enough to destroy every NATO country. Russia also has a sizeable conventional force, and a substantial strategic reserve. That means they haven’t committed their full forces to Ukraine. That’s because in the event NATO gets any bright ideas about sending “troops” Russia is ready for them – both conventionally and nuclear.
NATO knows this, the US knows this, Russia knows this, everyone seems to know this (except you) to the point that NATO has stopped short of Russia’s real red lines. That little French army that can barely contain New Caledonia would be no match against Russia. So instead of mocking that which you do not understand, be thankful that Moscow does show restraint

Posted by: James M. | May 20 2024 23:15 utc | 194

After one, the U.S. senior general Potts was reported to have died in a small airplane crash. Sole pilot, no one else involved, no witnesses. After another such strike, a French general apparently fell while mountaineering in the Alps – again alone.
Posted by: Andrew Sarchus | May 20 2024 15:58 utc | 190
This is pointless speculation. Potts was a staff officer, not a field general. He wouldn’t be anywhere near Ukraine, even if the US was in open warfare with Russia. As for the French general he died in the Pyrenees, not the Alps, and he had been retired for some years. Anyway, generals in the US military don’t travel alone. They are surrounded by staff. It’s highly likely then that some of them would have died in any missile strike as well. No death announcements forthcoming, so far.

Posted by: James M. | May 20 2024 23:59 utc | 195

Re: Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 20 2024 11:39 utc | 173

The plan was Ukraine would provide abundant cheap electricity to the EU, now it’s EU providing limited expensive electricity to Ukraine, so much for best laid plans. The blown up gas storage facilities in western Ukraine are a very clear signal Russia will not be renewing its gas contracts with the west when they expire, I know, no shit Sherlock.

This was NEVER THE PLAN!!
Show me any proof of that as a ”PLAN”

Posted by: Julian | May 21 2024 4:54 utc | 196

Re: Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | May 20 2024 15:51 utc | 189

B has better things to do than babysit morons. Better to just read his posts and ignore these threads. RSH sub stack is still going.

RSH has certainly never failed to be wrong about the same thing over and over and over again – without shame nor contrition.

Posted by: Julian | May 21 2024 8:40 utc | 197

“We are officially initiating the recognition of the structures of the Kyiv regime as a terrorist organization,” said the Russian parliamentary commission to investigate criminal acts against minors by the Kyiv regime.” https://x.com/simpatico771/status/1792751952448967014

Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 21 2024 8:53 utc | 198

Posted by: SOS | May 20 2024 9:30 utc | 157
Sure they had some operational data and knew it was a big new weapon. This was a war with lots of new weapons though.
Did they know exactly what they were bombing?
Were they just told it was a “military target” within that city?
However, those bombs dropping was a first and shocked the world.
I’m sure those pilots and bombardiers weren’t really aware of the extent of the whole thing.

Posted by: Archetypex | May 21 2024 19:54 utc | 199