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May 15, 2024
Ukraine Open Thread 2024-140
Comments
‘with Putin being seen on an overseas trip with the ‘nuclear football’ in tow?”
Two ‘nuclear football’, look:
Putin + nuclear football
Xi + nuclear football
https://x.com/thesiriusreport/status/1791002187465707911
Posted by: Simon | May 17 2024 9:21 utc | 301
Wow, was worth watching that clip, TY. Definitely a message.
Posted by: varnel | May 17 2024 9:32 utc | 302
“a mixture of Dylan Thomas and Mae West, with overtones of Goethe”
Priceless!
By the way, the Russians don’t call it a “football”. It got called that because when the first portable device for starting World War III was provided to President Eisenhower, the codename for the nuclear war plan was “Operation Dropshot”
Wikipedia tells me the Russian equivalent is Cheget, named after a Caucasian mountain, where I don’t believe they play football, at least not American football.
Posted by: MFB | May 17 2024 10:18 utc | 303
WMG | May 16 2024 23:08 utc | 245
Scott Ritter:
“- Jevgeni Prigozhin revolting against Putin was an operation backed by the Ukraine and the CIA. The plan was supposedly to go to Moscow and then there would be a “Maidan moment” where russians in Moscow rise up against Putin (???????).”
There is a more “fun” version of that;
Prigozhin was actually “playing” both the CIA and the Ukrainians, both of whom are happy with their own wishful thinking becoming their reality.
Look at just the “march on Moscow”, where the only helicopter(s) shot down were because a Wagner disobeyed orders not to fire. Even then one of them was only shown as a “fire” in the distance. Noticible lack of fighting (none?), and most of the Musiciens didn’t know where they were going or why. The saga ended when local (real) volunteers dug ditches across the road themselves, and the column stopped. “Negotiations” ensued to avoid bloodshed.
What it did do is to identify well placed Russians who would join Priggy and the band, as turncoats. Priggy may even have been paid a retaining fee for his services by the CIA. (Which could explain the “grenade in a plane” as a CIA operation for breach of “agreement”).
His previous claims of lack of Ammunition/support probably had some truth in them, and as we now see, the DoD was being sapped by “good ‘ol corruption” and deft dealings.
The FSB or perhaps a more central figure such as Surovkin could have set the whole thing up, but it would have made a good scenario for an early James Bond Film.
Posted by: DunGroanin | May 17 2024 9:10 utc | 300
Come now, D.G., no need for you to be lured into the thread-shitting efforts of 77th Brigade’s erect simpletons.
Posted by: anon2020 | May 17 2024 11:17 utc | 305
Re: NOTAMs
Martin Armstrong mentioned this on the 16th (only paragraph worth quoting):
Putin keeps trying to warn the American Neocons that they are playing with World War III, which will be nuclear. They issued a Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) that they will be firing missiles in a test just off the coast of northern California coast, thereby alerting pilots of Russian missile launches to LAND / IMPACT in the Oakland Air Route Traffic Control Center ((ARTCC). This will begin tomorrow and continue for 10 days. This is 300 miles offshore in international waters.
Posted by: varnel | May 17 2024 11:56 utc | 306
“Russia has no plans today to seize Kharkov”, Putin said on Friday. “They are bombarding directly the center of the city and residential quarters. I have said publicly that if this continues, we’ll have to create a security, buffer zone. This is what we are doing” ( tass.com/politics/1789635 )
Posted by: rk | May 17 2024 11:58 utc | 307
NOTAMs and nuke briefcases…
Russia holding exercises off the coast of California apparently. Way to go. Freedom of navigation and scramjet missiles… and Xi gives Putin a brotherly hug.
A ‘peace conference’ in Switzerland to to discuss Russia;s surrender and remunerations it has to pay. Keepin the facade propped up at all costs.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 17 2024 12:27 utc | 308
varnel | May 17 2024 11:56 utc | 306
It’s better to wait and see. Yesterday some people here thought that a few hours of power loss in Kiev is “attrition warfare”. Not even 24h later and Sevastopol has introduced power cuts, closed schools and everything else, following the largest attack ever. Not much attrition in Ukr in real life ( tass.com/politics/1789485 )
Posted by: rk | May 17 2024 12:50 utc | 309
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/53334
❗️🇷🇺Formulas for peace in Ukraine, “based on wishes” and not on the real situation, are impossible to discuss.
Russia is ready to participate in peace negotiations on Ukraine.
For Russia, the question of Zelensky’s legitimacy is important; fateful documents must be signed with legitimate authorities – Putin
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/53329
🇭🇺 Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto:
“Hungary vetoed the Council of Europe resolution on Ukraine, since it provided for the recognition of only one Zelensky “peace plan”
🇸🇰 Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is “on the brink of life and death” two days after the assassination attempt that shocked Europe, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said.
He said that even if Fico recovered, he would not be able to work for several months at a critical moment ahead of the European Parliament elections in early June: “We would desperately need Robert Fico and a pro-peace Slovakia.”
The enemy releases high-resolution satellite images of the aftermath of MGM-140 ATACMS missile strikes on Belbek airbase in Crimea on May 16.
As a result of the attack, two MiG-31s and one Su-27 were completely destroyed, and a MiG-29 was also damaged.
Needless to say, even the simplest canopies, if they did not save the sides, would have significantly reduced the damage, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces used cluster ATACMS, most of whose M74 cluster munitions would have exploded on the roofs of the canopies. But there were no awnings, and we have our own way.
In fact, the impenetrability of the big generals responsible for this is even worth envying – neither the arrivals at the Saki air base in the summer of 2022 with the loss of aircraft, nor the constant unmanned attempts to attack air bases, nor the supply of long-range missiles to the Ukrainian Armed Forces could convince them. We are sure that these missile attacks will lead to nothing, after all, people do not want to change anything on principle, and aviation is cheaper than canopies.
Informant
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Massive attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the south of Russia on the night of May 16-17, 2024
Ukrainian formations carried out the largest-scale drone attack across Sevastopol and the Krasnodar Territory, launching a total of more than 140 aircraft and 20 sea drones.
🔻In Sevastopol, the attack lasted several hours. The drones moved from three directions in the Odessa region: attacks were noted in the Sevastopol Bay, and near Cape Fiolent, and in the Balaklava area.
▪️In total, units of the 31st Air Force and Air Defense divisions shot down 46 UAVs, five were suppressed by electronic warfare. Nine more drones were destroyed by rifle detachments of the Crimean Defense Group.
▪️However, it was not without damage: one of the suppressed UAVs was still able to reach the Sevastopol PS. Because of this, most of the city was left without electricity. At the moment, power supply is being restored (at least two thirds of subscribers are already connected).
▪️Simultaneously with the UAV raid, Sevastopol Bay was attacked by seven unmanned boats. Four of them were able to break through the booms and were destroyed on the immediate approaches, and three more were knocked out near Sevastopol.
▪️The eighth BEC was immobilized by a naval aviation helicopter, and now they are trying to drag it to the shore. The ninth drone was also shot down about an hour ago west of Sevastopol.
🔻The Ukrainian Armed Forces also attacked the Krasnodar region. The main blow fell on Novorossiysk. The targets were oil depots, an industrial zone and the city port. In total, as of 12.00, more than 60 UAVs were shot down over Novorossiysk and on the nearby approaches.
▪️There is information that BECs were used to attack the port, but at the moment we cannot confirm or refute the information.
▪️The drones themselves, given their flight route, were highly likely to enter Novorossiysk through the Sea of Azov, and the launch was most likely carried out from the Zaporozhye region.
▪️In addition, in the morning an oil depot in Tuapse was attacked. Video of the drone’s arrival was published by local channels. The UAV was flying through the mountains: this indicates that the drone flew around Novorossiysk and entered from the rear through Goryachiy Klyuch, bypassing the air defense position areas.
❗️As we can clearly see, attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine have again increased in the number of means used. This is the largest attack in the entire history of the Northern Military District, the purpose of which was to destroy energy facilities in Sevastopol and the Krasnodar Territory, as well as overload air defense systems.
Currently, local problems are present in several districts of Sevastopol; planned power-saving shutdowns have been introduced in the city to carry out repair and restoration work, but the main blow has still been contained.
At the same time, there is no need to relax. Remember last year’s tactics? After massive UAV raids there is an equally large-scale missile attack, so this is to be expected now.
High resolution map
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/53307
❗️One of the destroyed 🇺🇦Unmanned Boats armed with a R-73 AAM
Posted by: anon2020 | May 17 2024 13:37 utc | 310
It’s round number day
Happy 600th warplanes
Happy 1,300 multiple rocket launchers
“In all, the following targets have been destroyed since the start of the special military operation: 600 warplanes, 274 helicopters, 24,111 unmanned aerial vehicles, 521 surface-to-air missile systems, 16,053 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,300 multiple rocket launchers, 9,607 field artillery guns and mortars and 21,753 special military motor vehicles,”
Posted by: Newbie | May 17 2024 13:45 utc | 311
zu Service-Einsatz vor-Ort am 24.04.2024
Posted by: anon2020 | May 17 2024 8:52 utc | 297
AD losses are slightly different, no mention is made of crew losses but it is to be hoped that skilled AD personnel were operating the radar and launcher from a hardened on-site bunker, preferably from a much greater distance from abroad. If remote operation is not technically possibly my means of !Blinken’s more lilely quite s Thai/+Myammaars trones .. .. ..
Sorry that is .. it’s a must now to be a priority modernisation goal for any Russian AD-Manufacturers, but the operators are also “some valuable” – on future.
Those Drone’s like “RF Operators” are not some of RF’s youth soldiers (newly having started by 14-years old Guys & Girls, making a ‘Video-Game’, .. NO: those really younger RF guys + girls have already ‘understood’ – beside MSMs – what’s going here by war WEST towards EAST.
ALL in RF (esp. in the Western RF border regions) have now learned what a future on-going terrorists like Israel + NAZI-UKR-Budanov + U
S/UK-ElendskyCock – AK47-US auto bombs on ground can performe ..
Kill’m all.
AD radars may be very expensive and slow to replace, this NATO tomb stones at the new Danish refugees fences!
JUTLAND – Go home – We do not like any further UKR refugees coming here that threatens our TOURIST BUSINESS !
Now, the THREAT level is rising on both sides – and calls for innovative solutions that minimise the probability of off-cutting more or less world-wide losses, as such as a Radar-transparent shelters – from which such systems can still operate – verify a new effectively operating “Old Sowjet” war powers stratetgy til midth of 2025.
That’s it. … You WESTERN styled Nazis brainless men will further kill some of Slowakia’s + Serbia’s + Hungria’s + SA’s PMs), but USA’s + German’s + France’s + C
anada’s + Australien PMs will “follow” that attacks, but no-one of any UKRANIAN-NAZI guys then still remaining .. won’t survive by life + ghosts.
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | May 17 2024 14:09 utc | 312
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | May 17 2024 14:09 utc | 312
Stochastic Parrot vs Johnny Cab?
Posted by: anon2020 | May 17 2024 15:33 utc | 313
As we can see by MSM today in US-MSM, K(H)illary Clinton has still a vital-war statement published today.
So “She” as the “Killary imaged” like person have planned another new strike against China/Russia – on whatever the front may be the 1st. target ..
Why don’t “WE” kill those persons by a murderer engaged sniper – then publishing in CNN, CNB’s, etc…?
YOU here know – why not.
But “Others fighting against WAR” anyway, are not yet aware of what that MS. KILLARY has palnned to do NEXT?
What is it? The “NEXT” .. .. listen US/CNN + USA/NBTC + others US+ v.d.Liars EU compliances .. pls. ..
Then, You’ll find – below/between their published “Orders”, even just today a very old story:
Keep Russia in an defence state! Do not allow them (RF) to grow or have any otherwise successes towards S-Africa ..!
@Nuland, @Hillary: You’ll be killed sooner than expected.
Happy birthday, both these 2 male – open your brain instead of Your old legs between – ..
The Best is always to go home – Wash your hairs + Your HANDS ..
Then wait for Your assasin – or not … where is Your Sec just now this moment ? .. Ah ..Ah..
That’s it, Ms. Killary (todayx in US-TV spoken), same feeling on future when having killed Mr. Gaddhafi, “We came we saw we ..”.
Already forgotten? Some guys would come you bto an “end”. Thanks for understanding, Missus Killary ..
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | May 17 2024 16:14 utc | 314
posted self:
“Happy birthday, both these 2 male – open your brain instead of Your old legs between – ..
The Best is always to go home – Wash your hairs + Your HANDS ..”
This was/is targeted to Ms. Nuland (CIA/MSA member consierce) + the H(K)illary (Ex wife of Pres. Clinton) Big-Stae founders in ‘USA + Canada.
So both, pls. listen:
Whatever You Dear Nulands + Killaries any of both, You just now are planning to proceed, Pls forget it !
– Mr.Trump will control Yours probability.
– Mr. FBI will control Yours probability.
– Mr. Public Governors in LA, CA and MA, MS etc. will control Yours probability + TruthSpeaking in Colorada Reservats.
So, it is to think about a “Final Bomb” over Kiew.
That’s only one of future military claims, heard today by some RF Commanders + Soldiers on-ground.
Putin: Pls. Think about of a further “slowly” on-ground advanced offense but then also think and plan of an “Effective Strategy on Crimea” !
Checked that – or not – NATO is all over the World, so NATO is ALL OVER BLACK SEA ..
RF: You have forgotten that part of this “Chess-Game” .. Hopefully not.
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | May 17 2024 16:46 utc | 315
Ukraine Weekly Update, 17th May 2024: May be useful to some: https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-264
Posted by: Dr. Rob Campbell | May 17 2024 16:55 utc | 316
Posted by: anon2020 | May 17 2024 13:37 utc | 310
You’d probably need some sturdy shelters as the bomblets used are normally DPICM (dual purpose improved conventional munitions) or HEAT grenades with a fragmentation sleeve. I’m wondering if 40+ ATACMS, and hundreds of drones would have been more productively used against the rear areas in the Eastern or Northern fronts where the Russians are advancing, instead of causing a temporary inconvenience to the Sevastopol authorities and destroying assets which are only indirectly involved in theatre.
Once again, these attacks are only of military value if they are a precursor, or an adjunct, to something bigger. Publishing satellite images of the damage inflicted and the following SM offensive, suggests this strike is neither, just another attempt to wrest the narrative away from front-line failure and boost flagging morale.
Posted by: Milites | May 17 2024 17:13 utc | 317
Despite of some sqkm gained lands on either fronts,
I think – RF and its Commanders are still going ahead on the “Right tactical way” they’ve panned on un-predictable several Front line sections.
Un-calculated “methods” always have bben the best method to strike against -2deep State” members plus its Think-Tanks.
What would be, if the Think-Tank petrol station is running out of fuel ..?
What’s then ..?
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | May 17 2024 17:14 utc | 318
h/t Arnaud Bertrand on x
Quite extraordinary (and justified) rant by Hungary’s foreign minister about sanctions on Russia, calling out the immense hypocrisy that’s going on around them, and asking for “rationality” given the sanction regime didn’t achieve its goals and hurt the EU more than Russia.
https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1790959740610388328?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1790959740610388328%7Ctwgr%5E7138f7e9efbfec285f91c487bbdce917e3d46982%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nakedcapitalism.com%2F2024%2F05%2Flinks-5-17-2024.html
Brilliant! and at Chatham House
Posted by: Don Firineach | May 17 2024 17:36 utc | 319
Posted by: Milites | May 17 2024 17:13 utc | 317
Okay, but you can pls. state here on ‘facts proven’ by Geo-located pictures, that those attacks on Crimea is not as some “fun” reported by UKR Forces, neither those daily on-going attacks on Belgorod City civilian targets.
Why didn’t RF Army has given any resonse “properly” against those Belgorod strikes ?
OK – keep calm – even having at last 19 killed civilians in the RF homeland cities.
Operation DMZ – or what?
Look S/N.-Korea Degree 38th as a sample: Why not North/South Korean ‘solution’ in UKR – Why not having just now?
Blinken plays guitar in Kiev, his legs are already cut-off.
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | May 17 2024 17:42 utc | 320
It’s better to wait and see.
Posted by: rk | May 17 2024 12:50 utc | 309
Oh, I’m not advocating anything. In fact, I hope no missile test even takes place.
But just like international shipping having to avoid the Red Sea for insurance reasons, commercial air traffic will not be able to ignore this. Would be nice to see a map of just how big this zone is. Since I have no idea of what the typical air traffic patterns in that area look like, it might not be much of an inconvenience at all.
I’m just surprised the washington war mongers aren’t already screaming from the rooftops. There isn’t real clear language as to whether the NOTAM quoted is going to be the launch area or target area, and perhaps that’s what TPTB are waiting to see before responding. I guess we’ll find out over the next 10d.
Posted by: varnel | May 17 2024 17:54 utc | 321
Posted by: anon2020 | May 17 2024 13:37 utc | 310
This is what I pointed out earlier. How are “massive” attacks (using the pro-Russian sides own words) possible when Ukraine is running low on ammo, missiles, drones, and men? This was just the opening salvo using drones. Long range missiles are next.
Posted by: bored | May 17 2024 17:55 utc | 322
Posted by: bored | May 17 2024 17:55 utc | 322
:: May be you are fixwd in “Your wishful status”, but reality looks like RF neither won’t be able to conduct further offensives or have been somewhere exausted by the latter ones.
Don’t worry – this “War” concerns not of some sqkm by either side.
Each side is just now trying to keep its “publically claimed reserves” on either some sqkm of its MIL Infantry actions, but no side is the “winner” just today.
The winner is always Rockefeller, B.Gates, ETZ unlimited printing US$ ‘papers’.
Bodies dying on ground – ie. in new ‘UKR meat/cauldrons – are always in sense of Nuland + Killary “Ghost” like persons.
Posted by: spare_truth_01 | May 17 2024 18:11 utc | 323
@anon2020 | May 17 2024 13:37 utc | 310
two MiG-31s and one Su-27 were completely destroyed, and a MiG-29 was also damaged
Oh well, the Russians do learn, eventually, and as everyone knows, education is expensive.
Posted by: gT | May 17 2024 18:27 utc | 324
For now, the biggest problem with AD is the drones&rockets decoy&overwhelm strategy. The “turtle tank” didn’t came from nowhere.
Most of the existing systems were designed to shoot planes, big drones like the Bayraktar or the MQ9, cruise missiles and the “slower” ballistic menaces like intermediate range rockets. There are some exotic objects like S500, but I don’t wanna know the price per rocket intercepted …
For now, the biggest problem in Russian AD is the sheer number and the staggering diversity of means used… against it. The Bandersit AD biggest problem is also “staying alive” (I’m sorry for the Bee Gees flashback) but on another scale.
The problem is mostly economic, as Iran justified and advertised “retaliation strike” underlined with the flashiest stabilo in the drawer.
Most of weapons manufacturers and military tacticians are designing some complex charts to find some credible “solutions” to solve the dilemna right now, datasets are collected, but who would make some efficient AND economic design first ? IDK … can I bet on the Chinese ?
Posted by: Hiro Masamune | May 17 2024 19:08 utc | 325
ZH has a posting up with the title
Ukraine Formally Asks NATO To Send Troops For First Time, Pentagon Mulling
the quote
One source has pointed out how Washington tends to operate and what it all means… In asserting that NATO sending troops is “inevitable,” the Times means the decision has already been made, and all that is being awaited is the determination on how best to announce the escalation to the public.
Posted by: psychohistorian | May 17 2024 19:22 utc | 326
Russian troops advanced towards the village of Borovaya in the Izyum district of the Kharkov region. This was announced by the head of the military-civil administration of the Kharkov region, Vitaly Ganchev.
“There are also certain results in other sectors of the Kharkov front. One of them is Svatovsko-Kupyansk, where our fighters managed to advance towards Borovaya, and they continue to improve their positions there.”
He added that more than 200 square meters have been released from the Armed Forces of Ukraine. km area. “The main city we are on the verge of liberating is Volchansk. The fighting continues, we can say that every street recaptured from the enemy is the result of serious and difficult battles.”
Posted by: MiniMo | May 17 2024 19:36 utc | 327
Jimmy Dore just held up Bertrand’s tweet about Russia and China so he could discuss it. Saw it on his live show on Rumble just now. The rewind function is working for me right now, though it often doesn’t as afaik it usually gets reserved for premium members. Lol, Dore is still talking about the topic, bringing in Syria, Libya, and Gaza.
Posted by: Babel-17 | May 17 2024 20:12 utc | 328
Newbie | May 17 2024 1:52 utc | 265
Ah yes, the old debate whether China “wants” Siberia. Never gave it much thought. Guess it depends on how the climate crisis progresses, whether or not southern China will still be inhabitable in (let’s say) 2050. Russia certainly needs immigration since its population is shrinking, but it ain’t easy.
Jun | May 17 2024 8:34 utc | 295
Thanks for the additional info. I’ve now learned that the designation Zhongguo is roughly 3000 yo, but I don’t quite see how your post relates to mine.
Posted by: smuks | May 17 2024 21:49 utc | 329
A ‘peace conference’ in Switzerland to to discuss Russia;s surrender and remunerations it has to pay. Keepin the facade propped up at all costs.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | May 17 2024 12:27 utc | 308
Yes, a so-called “peace conference” in switzerland. This was oraganised quite a while ago. It was thought that by now the russians would be faced with defeat, with uprisings in moscow, defecting soldiers, kiev forces in Crimea.
The dream didnt come off at all. But they couldn’t cancel it by this time.
Posted by: HERMIUS | May 17 2024 22:26 utc | 330
Posted by: anon2020 | May 17 2024 13:37 utc | 310
This is what I pointed out earlier. How are “massive” attacks (using the pro-Russian sides own words) possible when Ukraine is running low on ammo, missiles, drones, and men? This was just the opening salvo using drones. Long range missiles are next.
Posted by: bored | May 17 2024 17:55 utc | 322
Its dead simple Mr Bored. They obviously had more stored reserves, from years of accumulation than anyone expected. All the more reason why it was right for Russia to start the SMO. It suggests their plan was for war from the beginning.
Posted by: HERMIUS | May 17 2024 22:32 utc | 331
Ukraine Formally Asks NATO To Send Troops For First Time, Pentagon Mulling
Posted by: psychohistorian | May 17 2024 19:22 utc | 326
Theres no chance of that happening. The west is completely unprepared for a nuclear war. Its populations are vulnerable. Theres no shelters anywhere, theres no civil defence or voluntary groups been set up to cope, no leaflets explaining what to do to protect your family from fall out. When the reality of NATO boots on the ground is explored by western leaders, they will realise all this. But its too late now. These things take years to set up.
Are western leaders going to put their whole populations are risk?
Posted by: HERMIUS | May 17 2024 22:39 utc | 332
Posted by: gT | May 17 2024 18:27 utc | 324
War is expensive, period, the cost of those planes is probably equivalent to 2-3 days of sustaining the current air campaign, assuming those those planes were fit to fly in the first place. I’d be very sceptical about taking anyone’s word at face value, especially as SM has been weaponised as both a tool of attack and defence, in the propaganda war.
As for the adjective ‘massive’, a highly subjective term, given the majority were drones, and given the results, a disappointing return, if this was a Ukrainian surge effort. Ems as though the Russians have dispersed their air fleet, forcing the Ukrainians to expend a large effort to achieve relatively little. Three planes destroyed for 32 ATACMS means the entire Ukrainian inventory will be depleted to destroy less than a regiments worth of planes, and that ratio will only worsen as Russia’s AD systems receive new targeting algorithms.
Posted by: Milites | May 17 2024 23:25 utc | 333
Milites | May 17 2024 23:25 utc | 333
*** Three planes destroyed for 32 ATACMS means the entire Ukrainian inventory will be depleted to destroy less than a regiments worth of planes, and that ratio will only worsen as Russia’s AD systems receive new targeting algorithms.***
If two of these really were Mig-31 (rather than decoys), it isn’t an easily replaceable aircraft about which anyone could be indifferent to losing.
Posted by: Cynic | May 18 2024 0:09 utc | 334
via RT
The West only risks further escalation by arming and encouraging Kiev to strike Russian territory, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Friday.
The warning comes as Ukrainian strikes against Russian cities intensify on the backdrop of Kiev losing ground in the Kharkov Region.
“The profile of the American and British handlers of the [Ukrainian President Vladimir] Zelensky regime is clearly visible behind these barbaric attacks,” Zakharova told reporters. “They are not only providing longer-range missiles and heavy weapons, but are giving a green light to their use against Russia.”
“Once again, we would like to unequivocally warn Washington, London, Brussels and other Western capitals, as well as Kiev, which is under their control, that they are playing with fire. Russia will not leave such encroachments on its territory unanswered,” the spokeswoman stressed.
———————
Russia cannot keep saying that and never “answer” by way of a direct kinetic response ON Nato territiry as they have already threatened numerous times.
Slapping Sanction on the US/UK won’t cut it. Recalling diplomatic staff will not. More rhetoric won’t cut it either.
As has often been said, there is a limit to how many times declaring the sky is falling before everyone ignores you completely as a hand-waving Chicken Little.
on the flip side of course they do need to retain the initiative, and not just knee-jerk a response either.
But surely it is obvious what the US/UK Nato are doing here? And more than that, they are NOT going to stop ramping up the pain and threat levels as much as they possibly can.
I hope Putin et al have somethings up their sleeve and end up on top here. In the short and long term.
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 18 2024 0:57 utc | 335
Zelensky just visited kharkov so we can say it’s fall is imminent. Last visit to Avdiivka , he claimed they would defend it , that is until someone pointed out the coke plant there wasn’t the kind of coke he thought it was.
Posted by: Hankster | May 18 2024 1:10 utc | 336
Posted by: HERMIUS | May 17 2024 22:39 utc | 332
and others
H – Theres no chance of that happening.
LD – that;s what they said about Abrams tanks and ATACMS and STormshadows and a very long list.
(snipped nuke hyperbole and fearmongering)
H – When the reality of NATO boots on the ground is explored by western leaders, they will realise all this.
LD – You afford them WAY TOO MUCH INTELLIGENCE and being Rational Actors – Psychopaths don’t think or act like that.
H – Are western leaders going to put their whole populations are risk?
LD – You can bet they will. They already have. They will continue doing it and will not stop until they are physically stopped from doing so by overwhelming Military Force bringing their unconditional surrender.
Russia using tactical low yield nuclear missiles is a valid rational response to the threats NATO the US poses to them, and the world at large. One day, it will reach that level of conflict. Why? Because the US/NATO leadership are delusional bigoted racist narcissistic Psychopaths
Optimism bias is not going to help fix the harm caused to the world by the USA
Anymore than Hopium and a negotiated settlement can stop the deaths and tyranny in Occupied Palestine.
Direct military confrontation on the US mainland and on it’s east European Nato military bases might have a shot.
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 18 2024 1:13 utc | 337
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 18 2024 1:13 utc | 337
Couldn’t agree more…..
Posted by: HERMIUS | May 18 2024 1:17 utc | 338
Hungarian Foreign Minister: Brilliant! and at Chatham House
Posted by: Don Firineach | May 17 2024 17:36 utc | 319
Yes but they do know the truth, they have always known the truth, it just won’t make any difference. Scholz stood beside Biden and was told NS2 would never be turned on. Sunak said last year UK was sanctioning Russian gas and can say this year Russia turned off the gas. IAEA know who is shelling the ZNPP. But are too scared of losing their lovely international flights to say.
Why is it up to us to sit down with every single last Brit one on one and truth tell. And you only win over a few. And what do they always say “Isn’t Trump dreadful?” Never mind the one the US has now is murdering Gazans and Ukrainians. No it’s going to need something else.
Posted by: Inki | May 18 2024 1:23 utc | 339
Mmmm…..what else, do you think?
Posted by: HERMIUS | May 18 2024 1:26 utc | 340
@ Lavrov’s Dog | May 18 2024 1:13 utc | 337 who wrote
”
Russia using tactical low yield nuclear missiles is a valid rational response to the threats NATO the US poses to them, and the world at large.
”
Russia has stated repeatedly that it will only use nukes in response to nuke usage against them and your telling them to use nukes in response to threats from NATO is what we got from Shaddowbanned all the time…..are you their replacement?
How many lines of invective will I get for this challenge to your comment?
Posted by: psychohistorian | May 18 2024 1:28 utc | 341
How many lines of invective will I get for this challenge to your comment?
Posted by: psychohistorian | May 18 2024 1:28 utc | 341
You will get none.
1) Russia has stated repeatedly…
I know what Russia’s statement are about use of nuclear weapons, as well as Putin’s words, as well as what is actually written in the security manifestos. You do not need to tell me again, or put it in your own words. But it’s OK if that’s important to you.
2) and your telling them to use nukes in response ……
Please DO NOT put words in my mouth while being so emotional about it. I am NOT telling them to do anything. Read what I wrote verbatim.
I’m expressing my opinion about the current situation today!
And what I consider a valid rational response , now and going forward. I also added in some other logical obvious (to me) reasons, including that the IMHO the US/UK Nato will not stop ramping up these attacks, or stepping down in the War against Russia and China and anyone else in the way of US Hegemony and Global Control.
3) If you do not like my opinion, fine. But you have provided ZERO rational arguments against it. Only hand-waving and dismissive condemnation for having an opinion that varies with your own. Fine. Be like that. Your emotional content are not my responsibility. 🙂
4) Do you have a better solution that has any likelihood of success against the Outlaw US Empire Psychopaths? Speak up.
In the meantime I default to Putin and the Russian leadership to do whatever they want to do. It’s got nothing to do with me, or what I think or say. I just hope they fucking win! I do not care how!
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 18 2024 2:06 utc | 342
Mmmm…..what else, do you think?
Posted by: HERMIUS | May 18 2024 1:26 utc | 340
Ha. Very good question. Next please.
Hungary and Slovakia are where it will be slogged out next if it doesn’t stop. Hence the hang on a mo mo. I am 100% certain my ‘5 eyes’ PM knows the truth as does my local representative. Rather than being incredibly brave they are probably hoping it will be sorted before it gets too close. Also a majority of the populace are probably Russophobes and – well – elections you know.
So what else? Messier. I have always thought that if reason doesn’t work then the SMO will have to – and that it’s going to get a lot messier.
PS Note – the threats NATO & the US poses to .. the world at large.
These current wars are not only all about the threats to Russia, but the security and future of the entire world.
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 18 2024 2:11 utc | 344
Posted by: psychohistorian | May 18 2024 1:28 utc | 341
NOTING:
One day, it will reach that level of conflict. Why? Because the US/NATO leadership are delusional bigoted racist narcissistic Psychopaths
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 18 2024 1:13 utc | 337
One day, not today! Not tomorrow either. BUT One day …. it will reach that level of conflict!
Many people saw the future in 1938 before and after … that;s why the British built the Spitfire …. they knew one day, it will reach that level of conflict where they will have to defend themselves against the OBVIOUS THREATS from Nazi Germany by using the best military weapons money can buy.
It was rational and prescient of the British to prepare and later use those weapons.
Nothing has changed in that regard. Nothing. 🙂
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 18 2024 2:21 utc | 345
Nothing has changed in that regard. Nothing. 🙂
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 18 2024 2:21 utc | 345
Everybody knew it was an armistice for 20 years.
Now is more like preliminaries for the next big one
Posted by: Newbie | May 18 2024 3:01 utc | 346
In the meantime I default to Putin and the Russian leadership to do whatever they want to do. It’s got nothing to do with me, or what I think or say. I just hope they fucking win! I do not care how!
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 18 2024 2:06 utc | 342
I agree.
Posted by: James M. | May 18 2024 3:36 utc | 347
Re: Posted by: psychohistorian | May 17 2024 19:22 utc | 326
ZH has a posting up with the title
Ukraine Formally Asks NATO To Send Troops For First Time, Pentagon Mulling
the quote
One source has pointed out how Washington tends to operate and what it all means… In asserting that NATO sending troops is “inevitable,” the Times means the decision has already been made, and all that is being awaited is the determination on how best to announce the escalation to the public.
And for some bizarre reason you think Ukraine will surrender in the next two-three days!!!
Can you accept how wrong that prediction is?
Posted by: Julian | May 18 2024 4:59 utc | 348
Thanks for the additional info. I’ve now learned that the designation Zhongguo is roughly 3000 yo, but I don’t quite see how your post relates to mine.
Posted by: smuks | May 17 2024 21:49 utc | /I see you sidestepped my question. You define the term Zhongguo (Middle Kingdom) to mean Chinese are ethnocentric and insinuate this has something to do with them being imperialistic and “expects other countries to adapt their ways. Which they increasingly do.” Therefore, please answer my question: What has China done to you other than provide you with affordable goods?
Posted by: Jun | May 18 2024 5:26 utc | 349
And for some bizarre reason you think Ukraine will surrender in the next two-three days!!!
Can you accept how wrong that prediction is?
Posted by: Julian | May 18 2024 4:59 utc | 348
That is pure obfuscation. A normal country would have surrendered long ago before sacrificing all their interests including demographic ones.
Ukraine is not a normal country, all leaders are promised a nice life somewhere else when it gets too hot. Ukraine is just a battlefield for Nato/Russia. And no one cares about an acknowledged surrender, what matters is Nato cupboard is bare when it comes to fighting in Ukraine. Sure, they will trickle something continuously but RU will simply annihilate any Nato assets that show up close to the line.
Btw, Dima said Kharkov is already affecting the east of Kupyansk front and gaps forming.
Chasov Yar (Kanal) is a sinkhole for AFU, which keeps sending more men to Kanal to prevent it from being captured, RUAF continues bombing them. This could go on for a while.
Posted by: unimperator | May 18 2024 5:55 utc | 350
Posted by: Julian | May 18 2024 4:59 utc | 348
Your post was in response to- Posted by: psychohistorian | May 17 2024 19:22 utc | 326
This was a bizarre, even disconnected effort Julian. I could not see anywhere that psychistorian predicted the imminent surrender of Ukraine. He was speculating (probably correctly) on how the Western PTB will spin the decision to overtly involve their armed forces in the Ukraine debacle to their own populations. Psychohistorian speculated (again probably correctly) that the decision to implement this intervention has already been made.
IMO capitulation of Ukraine in the near future will be inevitable without a significant injection of Western troops- be they under the auspices of NATO, or various (sovereign??) European nations. Actually, given the current attitude of Russia, I don’t think it matters two hoots since it is existential for the RF to give the collective West a very convincing and painful hiding. I think the RF have been preparing for this for some time, and don’t really care where in Ukraine it occurs.
I speculated on earlier threads that an RF advance towards Odessa would be the catalyst for Western intervention, but perhaps current battlefield developments East of the Dnieper have unsettled the West to the point that they need to act more quickly.
Posted by: Barrel Brown | May 18 2024 6:27 utc | 351
Thermobarics destroy entire company.
https://twitter.com/simpatico771/status/1791613011490218027
Posted by: unimperator | May 18 2024 6:39 utc | 352
Re: Posted by: Barrel Brown | May 18 2024 6:27 utc | 351
Posted by: Julian | May 18 2024 4:59 utc | 348
Your post was in response to- Posted by: psychohistorian | May 17 2024 19:22 utc | 326
This was a bizarre, even disconnected effort Julian. I could not see anywhere that psychistorian predicted the imminent surrender of Ukraine. He was speculating (probably correctly) on how the Western PTB will spin the decision to overtly involve their armed forces in the Ukraine debacle to their own populations. Psychohistorian speculated (again probably correctly) that the decision to implement this intervention has already been made.
psychohistorian less than one week ago – didn’t take me long to find i – in fact, only 5 days ago – and said many times before that.
Such a prognostication indicates a fundamental lack of understanding about the conflict – which you rightly assert is between NATO/The West & Russia!!
Maybe this is a tell of when capitulation will occur….before F-16s are used.
I am on record of thinking Ukraine is likely to crash before May 20 and the pace is certainly not slowing so who knows where that straw is that breaks the camels back…..my fall back prognostication date for Ukraine surrender is early August.
Posted by: psychohistorian | May 12 2024 1:54 utc | 154
I will restate my reply to that original post.
Ukraine will not crash/surrender on May 20.
Ukraine will not crash/surrender by early August either.
I believe predictions that Ukraine will crash/surrender by May 20 (or early August for that matter) are WRONG and should be called out – they are effectively misinformation – precisely because of the reasons you state Barrel Brown.
Psychohistorian’s post is linked here: https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/05/ukraine-sitrep-the-sanitary-zone-on-the-northern-border-with-russia.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef02c8d3b2b872200b#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef02c8d3b2b872200b
(Post 154 from May 12 – only 5 days ago!!)
Posted by: Julian | May 18 2024 6:50 utc | 353
Posted by: Julian | May 18 2024 6:50 utc | 353
Again, what do you mean by Ukraine surrendering or not surrendering? Why is this relevant? Budanov and Zelensky are now criminals or terrorists anyway.
Don’t look at what Stoltenberg or Zelensky says. Look at what is happening with the internals.
Zelensky popularity is 16 %, and an official sociological study indicates the amount of people in Ukraine now wanting some negotiated solution is up to 49%.
TCC resorts to ever more radical solutions, they started even killing people on the territory of Romania who managed to cross. They kill people in custody.
That is why internals matter a lot more than jawboning presented in western MSM. Because ultimately you might want to knock out Mike Tyson, but your atrophied muscles might not.
Posted by: unimperator | May 18 2024 6:58 utc | 354
Posted by: unimperator | May 18 2024 5:55 utc | 350
Posted by: unimperator | May 18 2024 6:58 utc | 354
Besides the related comments in above posts, of course Ukraine should have surrendered long ago. This is surely obvious. The problem they are not a sovereign nation and are being led by psychopaths and the US/UK empire.
No one in Ukraine will come out of this well once the war with Russia is over. imho the vengeance murder rate will go through the roof for a very long time. Hopefully many more will end up in war crimes trials etc and imprisoned for life.
Anyway, my comment makes no difference to anything. There but for the grace of God go I. What a waste.
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 18 2024 7:33 utc | 355
Posted by: Cynic | May 18 2024 0:09 utc | 334
It’s not indifference, just restating something I’ve said in countless posts. Any operational outcome’s efficacy has to be judged in the context of the results it generates, and those results need to be a precursor, adjunct or reinforcer of further operations, with equally significant outcomes. So losing two Mig-31, Cold-war era, AS fighters is only significant if their removal reduces the Russians ability to operate effectively, which it does not. Losing the aircrew would have been far more damaging, which is why the SAS/LRDG raiding groups specifically targeted personnel.
If the removal of those Migs had been followed by a wave of missiles that they could have countered then it would be significant, if they could not be replaced in theatre then again it would be significant. Neither conditions apply. Same with the SAM battery, if Ukrainian SOF had lifted a radar, as the Israelis did in ‘73, and taken it back intact, or removed key component, Bruneval-style, then it’s loss would be significant. Otherwise it becomes just another profit/loss calculation, with the Ukrainians having to use up considerable resources to achieve little operationally, except divert bad news from the front. Something they have repeatedly done in the past.
If I was the Russians I’d disperse my air fleets, leave out older airframes, perhaps even fly circuits with them at regular intervals and hope the enemy took the bait. Then, if they did, my supposedly neutral SM posters, with names suggestive of inside knowledge, would publicly berate the authorities about how this could happen and blah, blah, blah. Then my other cohort of SM posters would suggest this deceptive strategy, only to have others ridiculing such suggestions, using buzzword phrases, such as ‘copium’ and ‘5D chess’ etc. The whole conversation would be controlled by me, with any independent input just reinforcing one of the three sides, lending it an air of authenticity. One thing’s for sure, if I’ve thought of it the Russians certainly have, and historically they’ve repeatedly used deceptive stratagems, with the transparency of SM being turned into an asset for such ruses.
Posted by: Milites | May 18 2024 7:53 utc | 356
Re: Posted by: unimperator | May 18 2024 6:58 utc | 354
Again, what do you mean by Ukraine surrendering or not surrendering? Why is this relevant? Budanov and Zelensky are now criminals or terrorists anyway.
Don’t look at what Stoltenberg or Zelensky says. Look at what is happening with the internals.
Zelensky popularity is 16 %, and an official sociological study indicates the amount of people in Ukraine now wanting some negotiated solution is up to 49%.
TCC resorts to ever more radical solutions, they started even killing people on the territory of Romania who managed to cross. They kill people in custody.
That is why internals matter a lot more than jawboning presented in western MSM. Because ultimately you might want to knock out Mike Tyson, but your atrophied muscles might not.
Ukraine is not sovereign.
I can’t believe people still don’t understand this – as Lavrov’s Dog says.
Posted by: Julian | May 18 2024 7:54 utc | 357
Posted by: Milites | May 17 2024 17:13 utc | 317
Posted by: Milites | May 17 2024 23:25 utc | 333
The attack had as its goal to destroy high value assets at the base, which it did. If the planes were unserviceable or decoys, the AD units were not. The conflict has never made strictly military sense from a Ukrainian perspective, Ukrainian attacks are intended to further the media-political aims for which you dismiss them. Team Cock-Pianist should be credited with holding the home front thus far.
The question is whether RF MoD is making logical choices given the means and expertise at its disposal. Beyond a certain risk level shelters are cost effective, as with shipboard HMGs to repel light surface threats.
Like @Cynic(334) points out, availability is also a factor. Non-recoverable loss of AD units reduces coverage against future attacks.
Perhaps it’s all very logical and the loss of whatever aircraft, AD and personnel were at the base was considered an acceptable trade for the weapons it would take to conduct a successful attack and for what might be learned in the process.
I don’t see anyone explicitly advancing that argument, which would require decent cost estimates of relevant factors, but the survivability of onsite assets would hardly be reduced by even improvised protective measures, of which there seemingly were none, so former is not an answer to the latter.
In reality, the consensus seems to be that, like Ukraine’s choice of targets, the issue of defensive adaptations for airframes, AD and ships is not primarily military-technical but bureaucratic, awaiting internal reform, rather that steel and concrete, glass and structural composites, which are all plentiful.
The routine implementation of logical and timely defensive adaptations for high value assets will be a marker of successful internal reform, not any change in cost-benefit analysis.
Posted by: anon2020 | May 18 2024 8:10 utc | 358
@Cynic | May 18 2024 0:09 utc | 334
More than enough mig-31’s available, 120 in use and over 100 in storage.
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/ukrainian-atacms-strike-mig31-destroy
Posted by: gT | May 18 2024 8:11 utc | 359
📋🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Report for the Morning of 18 May 2024; pub. 06:39📍
🎯 Yesterday, precision strikes on facilities in the #Odessa region hit (see also on bottom) enemy logistics centres. The AFU are still experiencing problems due to a lack of air defence assets, enemy monitoring channels are reporting our reconnaissance UAVs over the region. At 06:00, the enemy claimed that rockets from #Crimea were again launched at #Odessa.
🔹In the #Kharkov direction, the “North” Group of Troops continues its offensive, they reported full control over #Staritsa, there is information about our troops entering #Zybino. Heavy fighting continues in #Volchansk, the Russian Army on the approaches to #Liptsy. Strikes are carried out on the rear areas of the enemy. The AFU is transferring reserves from the #Kupyansk, #ChasovYar, #Kramatorsk and #Krasnoarmeysk directions.
🔹In the #Kupyansk direction, the RFAF are attacking on the frontline north of the recently liberated #Kislovka.
🔹In #ChasovYar’s eastern “Kanal Microdistrict”, our troops are attacking the urban area with the support of tanks and artillery.
🔹In the #Pokrovskoye direction (west of #Avdeyevka), the RFAF are conducting offensive operations at the settlement of #Umanskoye. Intensive fighting is taking place at #Arkhangelskoye.
🔹On the #Zaporozhye front, our troops are gnawing out enemy strongholds northwest of #Verbovoye. The difficult situation in #Rabotino is characterised locally by the constant use of drones and artillery by the AFU, hitting our assault groups. There are practically no shooting battles in the village.
💥#Belgorod region is under constant enemy strikes. As a result of the evening attack two civilians were wounded. Also, an AFU FPV struck Novaya Naumovka, Belgorod district (3 km from the border), one civilian was killed and another wounded. The arrival of a kamikaze drone was reported in #Shebekino.
💥In #Kursk region, the Sudzha Checkpoint, the villages of #Plyokhovo and #Guyevo, #Oleshnya in the Sudzhansky district, #Gordeyevka in the Korenevsky district, #Tyotkino and #Krasnooktyabrsky in the Glushkovsky district were shelled. In the village of #Gorodishche, Rylsk district, a Ukrainian copter dropped explosive devices twice. Two explosive devices were dropped from drones in the village of #Guyevo, one each in the village of #Gogolevka and the Oleshnya Farm, Sudzhansky district.
🛡Electronic warfare equipment suppressed AFU copters near the villages of #Sverdlikovo and #Gogolevka, the village of #Oleshnya in the Sudzhansky district and the village of #Sergeyevka in the Glushkovsky district. Near #Oleshnya, three AFU copters were destroyed by small arms and electronic warfare.
💥In the #Bryansk region, #Zernovo, Suzemsky district, was repeatedly shelled by the AFU. A female resident was killed.
💥In the #DPR, #Donetsk, #Makeyevka and #Gorlovka were hit by the enemy. Eight civilians were wounded.
🎬#Odessa – results of Russian Army strikes
Posted by: Down South | May 18 2024 8:26 utc | 360
The Russian Army is attacking Liptsy, this is one of the key targets of Russian troops on the North Kharkov sector of the front, along with Volchansk.
Russian troops approached Liptsy from the northeast, advancing south of the recently captured Lukyantsy. In Volchansk, fighting is already going on from Korolenko Street to Taras Shevchenko Street. And the Russians were able to capture the Volchansk Central District Hospital, which is located in the city center. In addition, enemy troops achieved success in the northeastern part of Staritsa, west of Volchansk. The deepest point of advance of Russian forces in this area is 10 kilometers.
Commander-in-Chief Syrsky stated that with the offensive near Kharkov, the Russian Federation expanded the active front line by almost 70 kilometers in order to force the Ukrainian Armed Forces to use additional reserves. According to him, the Russian Armed Forces want to capture Volchansk, and then Belyi Kolodez, in order to launch an offensive behind the Ukrainian troops, who are operating further east – in the Kupyansky direction. And today the General Staff is transferring additional reserves to these areas.
Before this, we have already analyzed the Russian offensive here and noted that the Russian Armed Forces are setting the likely goal of cutting off the supply of the Kupyanskaya group, and then going into its rear.
Among the reasons why the Russians were able to advance, Zelensky named the lack of air defense. We note that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have an acute shortage of people (there are not enough reserve units, which are also understaffed). And neither the West is yet ready to help solve this problem (the discussion about sending troops there has virtually reached a dead end), nor Ukraine itself is now able to seriously reverse the situation with the replenishment of the army.
And although the successes of the Russian Federation were relatively small, they create a burden on the Ukrainian army over a vast territory and bleed the Ukrainian Armed Forces, stretching and depleting Ukrainian reserves. After which the Russians will try to break through the defenses in Volchansk or in the Staritsa area. As they did at Chasovoy Yar and Ocheretino.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/22856
Posted by: Down South | May 18 2024 8:28 utc | 361
The newly published satellite imagery revealed the damage caused as a result of the recent missile attack on the Crimean peninsula. On the night of May 15, the city of Sevastopol and its outskirts came under another massive attack of the US-made ATACMS missiles.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, then, Russian air defense forces repelled at least 10 ATACMS missiles. The local sources reported that the city was targeted by about 16 missiles and some of them managed to break through Russian defense.
Likely the main target of the massive attack was the Belbek military airfield located on the outskirts of Sevastropol. That night, a fire was confirmed at the facility. The footage showed the missiles hitting the airfield.
The new satellite imagery showed the damage at the airfield as a result of the attack. Several ATACMS missiles with cluster warheads struck the parking and a building on the territory of the airfield. As a result, two MiG-31, one Su-27 aircraft were destroyed and one MiG-29 was damaged. The destroyed building was reportedly a fuel depot that burnt out as a result of the strike.
Russian air defense forces are doing a pretty good job of dealing with massive strikes by moderns NATO missiles, coordinated by NATO reconnaissance drones operating in the Black Sea area; but, of course, some missiles are capable of hitting targets on the peninsula. For the second time in recent months, the Belbek military airfield has come under missile attack. In February, several Storm Shadow missiles struck at the facility. Thus, various Russian experts and military observers are wondering why the necessary defense has not yet been built at the strategically important airfield, which is located in the strike zone of enemy missiles. After more than two years of the special military operation in Ukraine, the Russian military has yet to build special defensive structures to protect its rear airfields from attacks by Ukrainian drones and NATO missiles. Newly appointed Russian Defense Minister Belousov should definitely pay special attention to this issue.
https://southfront.press/satellite-imagery-shows-damage-to-belbek-military-airfield-in-sevastopol-as-a-result-of-atacms-attack/
So they got a few through. But keeping this in context, all ATACMS and Storm shadow missiles in Ukraine, and entire Nato arsenal are trying to hit a few locations in Crimea surveilled by Nato recon drones, so it is expected a few will eventually go through.
Posted by: unimperator | May 18 2024 8:31 utc | 362
Hardened bunker hangers sounds somewhat like a solution, but of so, why aren’t all military airfields full of them?
Is it because they are so expensive, or perhaps because they might even be riskier, with threats of collapse damage, or maybe they only slightly mitigate the issue in the risk/cost/benefit analysis of war.
I really dont know, but this war has taught me how fragile all fighter jets are, even the best have maintenance to flight times way beyond what I ever considered, and the tales of the prima donna runway requirements for f-16s just let me know that 21st century air combat is way more complex than i ever could have imagined.
Or…maybe they used bait to entice their enemies, and through put some juicy targets to get more study time on atacms. I mean, if this attack is from where they get the ability to stop most future atacms attacks, then 3 jets and a s400 might be a worthwhile trade off.
Or, the s400 is what they were counting on the most to learn from the attack, it failed, and the gambit failed. Who knows.
Posted by: UWDude | May 18 2024 9:04 utc | 363
Posted by: anon2020 | May 18 2024 8:10 utc | 358
As in any conflict, it’s outcomes are used to advance political goals, I’m sure there’s a real grey ding-ding going on between various bureaucratic factions vying for supremacy, but again that is only significant if it has a meaningful operational impact, eg Nazi incompetence undermining operational capabilities. This is not the case here, the strike on the airbase achieved only potential problems, or hypothetical impacts, which in war is not enough, bureaucratic inefficiencies notwithstanding.
As for the AD, you are going to lose these platforms if the enemy wants to divert a considerable number of resources to their destruction, irrespective of any strategies you employ. The question is, was the expenditure of effort, for the results gained, worth it? Which was the entire premise of the Soviet, and by extension the current Russian approach to war. What is the most efficient use of resources to achieve the state’s aims? An approach that, whilst not exclusive to Russia, is especially relevant given its Marxist approach to managing and controlling conflict, coupled with a centralised state planning process.
In WW2, the most efficient method of using massed manpower was to adopt strategies that required heavy expenditure of men and materials to attrit the enemy, who were less numerous. This strategy was then super-charged by transitioning to conducting high-tempo operations, with a view to shattering the enemy formations.
Come the Cold-War, technology had now added nitrous-oxide to this approach, with AFV’s designed to last minutes in combat and Russian formations expected to achieve in days what their predecessors had achieved in weeks. At the end of that era, Russia had demonstrably lost the ability to conduct such operations, so new strategies were adopted that involved support of proxies and/or small scale, interventions and adopting a distinctly British approach to the use of firepower, for the same underlying reason, protection of valuable manpower resources.
Whereas massed artillery had been used to support casualty intensive direct assaults, it was now designed to shoot small forces onto the objective, a radical departure from earlier doctrine. The later mobilisations have allowed this vulnerability to be partially addressed, resulting in organisational and operational adjustments, but the priority of force preservation is still there, especially as there is little time-pressure. With the platforms that are high priority targets for the enemy, force preservation is important but so is an acceptance of, and planning for, inevitable losses. These metrics will, once again, undoubtedly change to reflect new priorities and vulnerabilities, but their underlying calculations of efficacy will not.
Posted by: Milites | May 18 2024 10:27 utc | 364
Daily Willy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NsffF2T18kQ (map starts at 26:00)
DS map is behind. (Not just slow to credit RFA advances, but hasn’t released a new version at all.)
Kharkov:
W salient:
Suriyak says RFA is at Lyptsi outskirts.
E salient:
Suriyak says most of Vovchansk north of the river is in RFA hands. UFA holding well at Starytsia. RFA took Tykhe and moving towards Zybne. War Mapper (both conservative to any changes and pro Ukr, but otherwise quite good) shows something less than Suriyak and more than DS (which is two days old!). Probably would go with War Mapper…Suriyak has a tendency to call areas under attack, being probed as “taken”.
Chasiv Yar: Attacks on canal side city continue. Unclear if any progress.
Avdiivka: Suriyak showing couple fields south of Umanske taken. Also a field near Novooleks (north of Oche).
Marfopil (south, infrequent changes): had a field taken, per Suriyak.
Berestove: Suriyak showing an advance, but it is just catching up to what DS already had for R.
Bilohrivka: Suriyak shows an advance. Tough nut to crack.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 18 2024 10:41 utc | 365
Are western leaders going to put their whole populations are risk?
Posted by: HERMIUS | May 17 2024 22:39 utc | 332
i know that has already been answered, but i just like to add that nice quote from our german annalena “i am proud of my nazi gramps” baerbock:
“i dont give a sh*t what my german voters want!”
that pretty much sums it all up here in the west.
Posted by: Justpassinby | May 18 2024 11:03 utc | 366
milites @364
The empire has cloned Bomber Harris.
Big headlines about ATCMS, inhumane bomblets, holing rear areas.
No impact on real war going on in the front lines.
Posted by: paddy | May 18 2024 11:08 utc | 367
Posted by: paddy | May 18 2024 11:08 utc | 367
I think Harris’ strategy was driven more by technological, strategic and economic limitations, whereas Ukraine’s is being driven by something far more primeval, but agree that the targeting list resembles the accumulation of victory points, not a display of any strategic coherence.
Posted by: Milites | May 18 2024 11:37 utc | 368
Posted by: Anonymous | May 18 2024 10:41 utc | 365
Again, I think you’re missing the point by focusing on a crude metric like ground gained. Instead look at CE and relative force levels, vis a vis rates of advance. Tempo of operations and sustainability are good indicators of C3 states and institutional competence, as are frequency of assaults and their success/failure rates for force morale. If you had the data, ammo expenditure, to achieve a desired result, would also be useful as well. Finally, look at operational coherence and formation integrity as long-term guides as to who is on what side of the curve.
Bottom line, Russia operates at the divisional level, Ukraine the Brigade, Ukraine will therefore lose if this situation persists. This is not the same as saying Ukraine will not disrupt or defeat some Russian attempts, just that they have no way of winning militarily as they cannot match Russian combat power, in offensive or defensive capabilities.
Posted by: Milites | May 18 2024 12:24 utc | 369
Posted by: Milites | May 18 2024 10:27 utc | 364
If the airframes were clunkers, flown in and quickly stripped of salvageable parts before being wheeled into view, and if the AD was remotely operated or running in automatic mode, then it was likely cost effective. Definitely so if real AD operated from the sidelines while high quality decoys sat on display. A few woe is us quotes and leaked images from the local fire services (for which they are acquiring an unfortunate reputation) would round out the deception. Storing gravity bombs on site would be a nice touch.
All plausible enough but experience suggests that, with a few notable exceptions, things have mostly gone down the way they initially appeared to, usually for the most banal reasons, with the most predictable consequences.
If the MoD managed to lay on a clever deception at Belbek, that’s an admirable win. If it’s a case of Russia’s enemies getting what they wanted, that’s a loss in a conflict where only Ukraine could ever be militarily defeated.
The privileges of senior rank oblige the holders to be smart enough to turn around before Russia’s enemies kick them in the ass. All peacetime grifterism aside, they aren’t on the payroll for any other reason.
Posted by: anon2020 | May 18 2024 12:40 utc | 370
US benefits from this war, no matter what would happen.
Morality aside :
The cost of this war is relatively low. Out of $175B in aid, $107B went to Ukraine. Rest went to the industrial complex. In 2024, defense budget was $843B out of total budget of $6.6T. On average since this war is three years long, US has spent $32B per year. What does US get in return ?
– Bleeding Russia out. Russia is losing hundreds of thousands of young people. This is Russia’s future dying on the battlefields across Ukraine. How many exactly ? No idea but definitely in hundreds of thousands by now and far from over.
– Isolating Russia, politically and economically, from biggest markets of the world – US and Europe, allowing western companies to step in.
– Forcing Russia into an arms race versus the biggest military bloc on the planet. USSR tried that and everyone knew how that ended up.
– Causing expansion of NATO by countries that were previously neutral – Finland and Sweden. In effect, Russia is now surrounded by hostile states on its western flank.
– Forcing Europe to increase its military spending, thus allowing military to focus on China as well as growing military industry. https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pictures/images_mfu/2024/2/stock/240214-def-spend-graph_rdax_775x440s.jpg
– Replacing Russia as Europe’s main energy supplier.
The share of Russia’s pipeline gas in EU’s imports dropped from over 40% in 2021 to about 8% in 2023. For pipeline gas and iquefied natural gas, Russia accounted for less than 15% of total EU’s gas imports. Norway and United States were the top suppliers of gas in 2023. Norway provided almost 30% o gas imports. In 2023, United States was the largest liquefied natural gas supplier to EU, representing 50% of total imports. In 2023, comparing to 2021, imports from the US almost tripled.
Also : https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/slovak-government-seeks-plan-new-nuclear-power-plant-by-october-2024-05-15
– Forcing Russia to go from a very large arms exporter to a net importer – Western countries will fill that void.
– Allowing US to learn a lot about the performance of its own weaponry and observe Russia’s performance – All without showing its own cards or losing a single soldier. This war is a testing ground for the next war.
Posted by: Okoolo | May 18 2024 12:41 utc | 371
Okoolo | May 18 2024 12:41 utc | 371
The gainer in this conflict is the stockholder of MIC companies!
The miniscule part of the waste in big MIC budget is a big part of the ammunition supply.
For example, US sent 3 million 155 shells (not including powder bages at 5 or 6 per shell) while it stresses to produce 30 thousand a month.
By replacing Russian hydrocarbons with expensive US/Arab suppply is de-industrializing the EU> Good gains for China!
The MIC’s prisoner game run through euro and ukro nazi proxies could end in the US’ enduring nuclear war!
I am old so h-bombs on DC and LA don’t worry me any!
Lockheed is profitable!
Posted by: paddy | May 18 2024 13:08 utc | 372
anon2020@370….a few air frames were not the target. The warehouse(s) storing the ammo for the planes that land there, load up, and head to the front was the target. Quite the cook off, shame about the S300 S400 AD systems getting destroyed not sure how they’ll handle a thousand drones, it’s just a matter of time. Can Russia destroy them faster that they can be made and delivered…..still hear them snickering in Whitehall, they love fun and games there, especially as they are safe to hit the clubs like they do in Kiev.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 18 2024 13:36 utc | 373
UWDude | May 18 2024 9:04 utc | 363
The Crimea always seems to have a flaw in its defense. The statement that one maybe two atacums got through and destroyed 3 fighters and an s400 suggests these units were clustered together. So regardless if NATO used some type of novel jamming on the last few missiles all the fighters and s400 should not have been clustered. This is a command problem.
The rationale for having the mig-31s there could be forward positioning for an attack on Romania if NATO moves from there to support Odessa.
Posted by: Jerr | May 18 2024 13:42 utc | 374
Posted by: anon2020 | May 18 2024 12:40 utc | 370
Absolutely, cock-up over conspiracy most of the time, but deception in warfare is as old as the institution itself. Having said that, let’s go for the worst case scenario: upgraded airframes, an AD battery a fuel dump, plus an ammo bunker and key technicians lost. Apart from the obvious loss of blood and treasure what have Ukraine gained operationally?
Meanwhile the Northern front perimeter defences have all but collapsed, leaving Russia with a multitude of options and Ukraine very few. The Eastern defences are still buckling, forcing Ukraine into having to play a reactive, spin-the-plates, strategy and only able to launch disjointed rear-area raids to satisfy their masters and legions of Astro-turf SM influencers. Maybe they’re playing 7d chess, and lesser mortals cannot fathom its complexity and revolutionary upending of the rules that have governed warfare, since time immemorial.
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | May 18 2024 13:36 utc | 373
Has the operation given the Ukrainian’s any respite, has it curtailed air operations, has it imposed any restrictions? If not, then it was operationally insignificant. As for withstanding hundreds of drones, sauce for the goose, and even if mass raids are planned then is it enough to break the stranglehold they find themselves or will mass use be counter-productive, removing one of the platforms key features, low visibility. They are also an asset with diminishing returns as their inherent flaws are more effectively being exploited by defensive systems and SOP’s are adjusted accordingly. I can foresee the return of piston engined fighters, armed with cannons, as a cheap alternative to the current expensive missile platforms. Most novel weapons they promise far more than they can ever deliver, either accelerating the inevitable or retarding it, rarely, if ever, reversing it.
Posted by: Milites | May 18 2024 15:29 utc | 375
Milites | May 18 2024 15:29 utc | 375
*** I can foresee the return of piston engined fighters, armed with cannons, as a cheap alternative to the current expensive missile platforms. ***
Summons up a fascinating vision of updated FW-190 or Yak-3 aircraft drone-hunting…..
Posted by: Cynic | May 18 2024 15:55 utc | 376
369, Millites:
1. So if RFA is doing this uh-mazing attrition, how come it hasn’t fractured the UFA force yet?
2. Did you predict a year of no movement?
3. How many more years until the Ukrops crack?
4. And you base this attrition on what? RFA kill counts? From the same organization that refuses to share their own? And do you accept UFA pronouncements on RFA losses? Like, neither has an incentive to lie? Or for that matter, even difficult to know, losses from others?
Posted by: Anonymous | May 18 2024 16:57 utc | 377
Millites:
You also need to look at all the cheerleaders pronouncing that lines have collapsed and the like (e.g. the anon2020 370 post). Because they stay in the affirmation safe space…and read about isolated hamlets and tree lines being taken. But ignore the % territory change, which is microscopic.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 18 2024 17:03 utc | 378
Posted by: Cynic | May 18 2024 15:55 utc | 376
Or a modded A-1 Super-Spad! The concept has a lot of advantages, most of them financial, as training requirements, deployment and maintenance costs would be a fraction of their jet cousins, as would their weapon systems, when used. I know the Ukrainians claimed they were using Yak-52’s in the role, but the evidence shown was pretty slim.
Drones are having a golden time, but this is already starting to tarnish, as the recent Starlink shut down has shown the vulnerability of their remote operation. More defences will evolve, and novel and not so novel solutions will increasingly relegate this ‘wonder-weapon’ to the category of every other platform deployed.
Posted by: Milites | May 18 2024 17:07 utc | 379
Posted by: Anonymous | May 18 2024 16:57 utc | 377
Never made predictions, beyond generalised ones, or included in a list of possibilities, rookie error that. Once I realised the high-intensity, low density, low operational tempo template, as a means to counter ISR and concomitant drone deployment, and the failure of the Wests precision guided financial weapon (if that was its intended target) it was a slo-mo ‘44-45 scenario.
As for why haven’t the lines cracked yet, the simple answer is because the conditions have not been reached yet, which is not to say they aren’t in place and operating. Like boiling rice, nothing than a few bubbles, then a shimmer then it’s pouring over the saucepan and onto the hob! I doubt it’s years, because firstly, the motivating force behind this debacle, the US, is about to have a change in political direction. Secondly, the Ukrainians are unable to match or divert Russian resources. Finally, Russia is on an offensive posture, not an active defending one, big difference.
Again, captured territory is a useful, but often misleading metric to gauge success, for example, what happens if next week the Russians launch a massive armoured thrust that captures hundreds of square Km’s, thanks to the Ukrainians being unable to respond. What then? Your previous calculations are made redundant, never stake it all on one horse, especially one you don’t control, another rookie error.
Posted by: Milites | May 18 2024 18:12 utc | 380
Posted by: Anonymous | May 18 2024 16:57 utc | 377
Your questions can be turned around in a fashion (which might also address your concern about the accuracy of Russian MoD reports) like so: if the Ukrainian forces haven’t suffered a catastrophic rate of attritional losses then surely they should be capable of repelling the Russians back across the pre-2022 border, shouldn’t they?
Why haven’t they achieved that yet? What is stopping them? Why can’t they recapture their territory?
In your view, what has gone wrong with Ukrainian forces? What are they doing wrong? How can this be changed?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 18 2024 18:36 utc | 381
Why Germany is a Mess?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6eXyYJ4h5o
Posted by: Pause | May 18 2024 18:39 utc | 382
380, Millite:
1. So what is your estimate (50/50, over/under, Bayesian “bet” if you were wagering) for when the RFA attrition strategy causes Ukraine to crack?
This isn’t some neener, neener thing. If you really think this is a reasonable strategy, and an effective one, than you should have some sort of idea for when it will culminate. If you don’t, because it is all a mystery, than you can’t rule out that the muh attrition strategy does not work out (muh stalemate), e.g. ending in a Korean War style armistice (or worse).
2. Also, do you accept RFA estimates of losses inflicted on the Ukrops? How about the converse?
Posted by: Anonymous | May 18 2024 19:04 utc | 383
If Germany is prone to get the fuck out off America, he will be in the next Europe, as a leader. If Germany thinks that he must be under his self complex, eating those self-idiots who are limiting the power of Deutschland, be my guess: Hitler was an idiot, but Europe must be the best of Greece an Rome: real beings. Of course: those miserable ruckus who are, now make this continent the best: trying to be honest.
Putin is a disciple of the Hierarchy:
Posted by: Pause | May 18 2024 19:30 utc | 384
Jun | May 18 2024 5:26 utc | 349
While Monty Python quotes are always nice, your question doesn’t make much sense.
Maybe you just didn’t understand my post? Nowhere did I mention ‘imperialism’ – but as I said, ‘hegemony’ is sth completely different.
And now…
(Yes, I’ve lived in China long enough to have some idea of people’s mentality.)
Posted by: smuks | May 18 2024 19:38 utc | 385
He is trying to make something very difficult: imitation of Christ. He can destroy the switch gears of the last energy production to be all the people without, water, electric bunch : But, he does not.
If the So called, Putin, would be a Narcissist or an idiot, the life would more problematic. Thanks to this noble, sincero, a man who is serving to all the people in this world, who is serving all of us.
And he is doing something very difficult: he is trying change the world by rationality when the world is not prone to change nothing: we are addicts to this mode…
Posted by: Pause | May 18 2024 20:07 utc | 386
If you don’t understand that there’s can’t be compassion when I’m an slave.
You must understand: when I am strong, you be like me. To be me is no so important than to be you
I can’t have compassion when all the life is upon me. I’ll take your mind when there’s no probblem.
To take compassion, you must be causal better
Posted by: Pause | May 18 2024 20:42 utc | 387
To be compassion you must have the power to get all the people live. How is possible that you are fine with this matanza? Cómo puedo vivir sin ir a luchar en Palestine? Miles de personas muriendo porque unos fascistas? Imponen el fascismo?
Against the money? Very clear: Money.
All the people gonna go: thouneths dedss
Posted by: Pause | May 18 2024 21:16 utc | 388
[ re NGOs in Georgia law blocked by (ukr/french) President , and before in UKR ]
Ivan Katchanovski – UKR Canadian History professor researcher
@I_Katchanovski
13h
In 2020, two dozen of major Ukrainian NGOs, all but one of which were funded by Western governments & foundations, stated that contrary to election promises by Zelensky any talks with Donbas separatists to implement Minsk agreements are unacceptable & are red lines after head of Zelensky administration supported creation of a consulting group with representatives of the separatist-controlled Donbas during Minsk talks concerning civil war in Donbas.
Western-funded NGOs in Ukraine also de facto supported violent overthrow of Ukrainian government during the Maidan by means of Maidan massacre, civil war in Donbas, far right in Ukraine, and other undemocratic and illiberal developments in Ukrainian politics since Maidan. But Western governments and foundations continued to financially support such NGOs in Ukraine and their undemocratic and illiberal actions. Such actions and calls by foreign-funded NGOs would be taboo for Western governments and foundations in their own countries.
Contrary to propaganda and political rhetoric by the Western and Ukrainian media, politicians, and self-proclaimed experts, this is another indication that the Western democratic governments de facto supported the violent overthrow of Ukrainian government during Maidan, civil war in Donbas, and other undemocratic and illiberal developments in Ukrainian politics since the Maidan. This was done for geopolitical reasons.
13.03.2020
Direct dialogue between Ukraine and ORDLO representatives is unacceptable. Statement of public organizations
Оригінал статті – на сайті Українського кризового медіа-центру: https://uacrisis.org/uk/75229-pryamij-dialog-ordlo
Оригінал статті – на сайті Українського кризового медіа-центру: https://uacrisis.org/uk/75229-pryamij-dialog-ordlo
https://uacrisis.org/uk/75229-pryamij-dialog-ordlo
———————
After this ultimatum by Western-funded NGOs, Zelensky abandoned any peace talks with Donbas separatists to end civil war in Donbas.
“We demand from the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky to prevent the implementation of the signed decisions, to immediately abandon the idea of creating an Advisory Council in the mentioned format, to instruct the negotiators from Ukraine to act exclusively within the legal field and within the framework of their powers, and to make it impossible in the future to take steps that disturb the civil society of Ukraine, distance Ukraine from the establishment of peace, contradict the current legislation and national interests of Ukraine.”
https://nitter.poast.org/I_Katchanovski/status/1791935293551005990#m
demands made to Zelensky and list of NGOs
https://nitter.poast.org/pic/orig/media%2FGN5CmYIWYAEHkdz.png
Posted by: Lavrov’s Dog | May 19 2024 10:18 utc | 389